politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » We can learn a lot about TMay’s negotiating style from this ch

Mr. Bobajob, she did have a smile on her face.

Nigelb said:

Pauly said:

Nigelb said:

Pauly said:

This is the most partisan thread I've seen in all my time here. Quite impressive

I'm not sure about that. There's a fairly strong cross party majority consensus that OGH does a pretty good job.

There is no author on the thread listed. I am criticising the contents of the piece not its origin, which I do not know for certain.

Oh, it's the thread header that's got you so riled.


And there was I thinking that no one read them.

That was my initial reaction to Pauly's posts. I was thinking his comment was about the comments! There have been plenty of threads where the comments have been way more partisan! Bring back tim, ben, IoS etc ...

bobajobPB said:

SeanT said:

Another true story. My new girlfriend's name is Star.

That is literally her Christened name. STAR. I won't tell you her surname obv. But it fits.

STAR.

Well, it makes a change from puns on Brexit. Or talking about Brexit.

Is her surname Fish, Reenight or Tulled?

Kraving?

bobajobPB said:

Pulpstar said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The results I'll also be paying a lot of attention will be the ones from Doncaster and not just because of Tissue Price's candidature in Don Valley.

These are Labour strongholds that voted Leave overwhelmingly, will we see a Scotland post Indyref redux?

Appalling (Labour) turnout today, Tory surge at the GE I reckon.

Which county council are you in?

Derbyshire

When I read about your poker tournament endeavours, I am sure it said you were from Cov?

I have a funny feeling Pulpster will be in re-countterritory today/tonight....

Has OGH been deleting Tweets?

@Douglas Carswell Looks like 3.8 million other voters also think it's a case of "job done - make sure May gets on with it" https://twitter.com/msmithsonpb/status/860115850577289217 …

Tweet unavailable......

SeanT said:

Another true story. My new girlfriend's name is Star.

That is literally her Christened name. STAR. I won't tell you her surname obv. But it fits.

STAR.

Well, it makes a change from puns on Brexit. Or talking about Brexit.

Trek?

Positives for Chi Onwurah - she won't make the BBC news today
Negatives for Chi Onwurah - Even TSE is chastising her on twitter

SeanT said:

Another true story. My new girlfriend's name is Star.

That is literally her Christened name. STAR. I won't tell you her surname obv. But it fits.

STAR.

StarBoard?

MTimT said:

Rhubarb said:

SeanT said:

Another true story. My new girlfriend's name is Star.

That is literally her Christened name. STAR. I won't tell you her surname obv. But it fits.

STAR.

Well, it makes a change from puns on Brexit. Or talking about Brexit.

Trek?

Gate? Hopefully not 'Bucks'

Mageddon?

Beverley_C said:

Cyan said:

It is just as impossible to join the elite as it always was. You can get some money, get patronised by them, go to some of their parties, you might even be able to marry them, but you can't join them.

There are more class divisions than just the "elite", but I agree with your overall point about joining the "elite". Personally I do not give a monkeys what the "elite" do, they are irrelevant to my life and I would not want to live their lives

I agree that there are far more class divisions in Britain than just between the elite and everyone else. But I was very surprised when someone wrote here that going to grammar school was a way into the elite. I wondered whether he had ever met anyone from the elite and experienced just what an extreme hatred they have for the lower orders, whom they hardly consider to be human. Similar attitudes towards those who are "beneath" them are evident in some social strata who are far lower down the pecking order, among people who - surprise surprise! - are usually the most slurpily deferential to those they consider to be socially above them. Many features of the way class works are extreme in Britain in comparison to other countries. All the stuff about "inclusion" is hypocritical cack.

The same hypocrisy is also evident when terms such as "members of the public" and "public transport" are used.

Even Hitler - even Hitler for goodness sake! - never clearly and unambiguously advocated in writing the scale of mass murder that H G Wells called for in his bestselling book "Anticipations". The idiotic belief that some people are born clever and others are born stupid - often sugarcoated with the mealymouthed idea that people are born with different "potential" - is very widely believed in Britain among, say, not just the top 0.01% but the top 30%.

I was going to suggest Sean's girlfriend's surname was 'Wars' on this great day

But auto correct did its magic and produced a typo that would lead a black eye for me from Sean

SeanT said:

Another true story. My new girlfriend's name is Star.

That is literally her Christened name. STAR. I won't tell you her surname obv. But it fits.

STAR.

Well, it makes a change from puns on Brexit. Or talking about Brexit.

Tell ? Ling ? Fish ?

Essexit said:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-news-from-elsewhere-25813215

Did anyone else just get this as a BBC Breaking News alert and push notification on their phone?

Yes

logical_song said:

CarlottaVance said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

Speaking to friends voting in the West Midlands today, one has voted Tory for the first time. Another whose mum is a Labour member and has put in the miles on the campaign trail before might vote Andy Street too. With his business experience and Christianity he seems a decent sort, a gateway Tory if you will. I think his odds are great value and expect him to win. I also expect he'll have the ear of Theresa too for a bit of central government help, which will only enhance the West Midland's standing and is something neither Burnham or Rotherham cannot offer.

I'll also take a bit of pleasure in Sion Simon losing, after all his Web Cameron spoof all those years ago was a real nadir for political comedy. Given he's spent the last few years campaigning for this Mayoral role it would be amusing if it were snatched away from him at the last.

Christianity and the Tory party hardly go hand in hand.

And your basis for that sweeping assertion is?

How about:
"Again I tell you, it is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than for someone who is rich to enter the kingdom of God."

But not all Tories are rich. And some socialists are. So that won't do.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

If it's a multi barrel name
Star by Kiki Dee?

It’s a MissStarRey by Toyah...

Sardonic..

https://twitter.com/RussianEmbassy/status/860120325715091457

Mr. (Tim) T, Morris Dancer did not realise this, if it were.

Cyan said:

I agree that there are far more class divisions in Britain than just between the elite and everyone else. But I was very surprised when someone wrote here that going to grammar school was a way into the elite. I wondered whether he had ever met anyone from the elite and experienced just what an extreme hatred they have for the lower orders, whom they hardly consider to be human. Similar attitudes towards those who are "beneath" them are evident in some social strata who are far lower down the pecking order, among people who - surprise surprise! - are usually the most slurpily deferential to those they consider to be socially above them. Many features of the way class works are extreme in Britain in comparison to other countries. All the stuff about "inclusion" is hypocritical cack.

The same hypocrisy is also evident when terms such as "members of the public" and "public transport" are used.

Even Hitler - even Hitler for goodness sake! - never clearly and unambiguously advocated in writing the scale of mass murder that H G Wells called for in his bestselling book "Anticipations". The idiotic belief that some people are born clever and others are born stupid - often sugarcoated with the mealymouthed idea that people are born with different "potential" - is very widely believed in Britain among, say, not just the top 0.01% but the top 30%.

Part of the problem of any conversation on the elite is agreeing on what the elite is. To me, from a lower middle class background, I've had a first rate education in STEM at a Red Brick, an MBA from the top business school in Europe, I've been a policy-maker at both national and international levels, my income is certainly in the top 5% and I live on a farm. By most people's standards, I am probably in the elite.

To me, I am clearly not, although I am invited to meet them if and when they need my knowledge.

My first reaction to your post is that I have not found the elite to be particularly exclusive. Then my second reaction is that, in some ways, they are like the British - everyone is tolerated, but you'll never be one of them. My third reaction is that, the elite is very much a combination of meritocracy and power/means. It is not a closed or unchanging group - indeed, Obama is clearly now in the elite but did not start out that way, in the same way that Mark Zuckerberg, Gates and the Google guys are now in the elite.

So, on your basic point, I believe very much that we grow our potential (or let it wither on the vine) by means of the work we put into challenging ourselves and stretching our abilities.

The best book I know on this is Mindset, by Carol Dweck. Mihali Csickszentmihalyi's Flow talk about happiness deriving from challenging ourselves to the maximum (and a bit more) or our current abilities.

SeanT said:

Arthur_Penny said:

SeanT said:

Another true story. My new girlfriend's name is Star.

That is literally her Christened name. STAR. I won't tell you her surname obv. But it fits.

STAR.

Well, it makes a change from puns on Brexit. Or talking about Brexit.

Parents Heinlein readers? (Glory Road)

Her sister's name is FLAME, and her best friend is called PROPHECY

Thrower?

Arthur_Penny said:

SeanT said:

Another true story. My new girlfriend's name is Star.

That is literally her Christened name. STAR. I won't tell you her surname obv. But it fits.

STAR.

Well, it makes a change from puns on Brexit. Or talking about Brexit.

Parents Heinlein readers? (Glory Road)

Surely it would be Estarre in that case

Black_Rook said:

Morris_Dancer said:

A Twitter account I follow focuses on graphs and the like. This one, on national confidence in the press, is striking. See where the UK is:
https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/860099434905980928

Two observations:

1. Some healthy cynicism there
2. That's one in the eye for the "this/that/the other horrible thing was caused by thickos believing everything they read in the Daily Mail" theory

I like how China is in there ... twice. Which one is the Republic of China, and which one is the People's Republic of China though.

Pulpstar said:

Black_Rook said:

Morris_Dancer said:

A Twitter account I follow focuses on graphs and the like. This one, on national confidence in the press, is striking. See where the UK is:
https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/860099434905980928

Two observations:

1. Some healthy cynicism there
2. That's one in the eye for the "this/that/the other horrible thing was caused by thickos believing everything they read in the Daily Mail" theory

I like how China is in there ... twice. Which one is the Republic of China, and which one is the People's Republic of China though.

RoC is Taiwan, isn't it?

Richard_Tyndall said:

bobajobPB said:

SeanT said:

Another true story. My new girlfriend's name is Star.

That is literally her Christened name. STAR. I won't tell you her surname obv. But it fits.

STAR.

Well, it makes a change from puns on Brexit. Or talking about Brexit.

Is her surname Fish, Reenight or Tulled?

Kraving?

Presumably Star Kers some of the time.

SeanT said:

Another true story. My new girlfriend's name is Star.

That is literally her Christened name. STAR. I won't tell you her surname obv. But it fits.

STAR.

Well, it makes a change from puns on Brexit. Or talking about Brexit.

If she likes your books, "Struck" would be a fitting surname

felix said:

You mean like when rich Labour MPs send their children to private schools?

Tory culture has no monopoly on hypocrisy.

FF43 said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

bobajobPB said:

SeanT said:

Another true story. My new girlfriend's name is Star.

That is literally her Christened name. STAR. I won't tell you her surname obv. But it fits.

STAR.

Well, it makes a change from puns on Brexit. Or talking about Brexit.

Is her surname Fish, Reenight or Tulled?

Kraving?

Presumably Star Kers some of the time.

Hopefull not Keir Star Mer any of the time

MarkHopkins said:

Is @SeanT dating... Ms Skynhutch?

Warstwo more like

Mr. Quidder, many North Koreans are brainwashed by the regime's extensive propaganda machine. That sort of thing may explain the discrepancy you note.

In freer societies, you're more likely to find out when the media's full of shit.

SeanT said:

Another true story. My new girlfriend's name is Star.

That is literally her Christened name. STAR. I won't tell you her surname obv. But it fits.

STAR.

Well, it makes a change from puns on Brexit. Or talking about Brexit.

You've made it big.

https://youtu.be/iudmMgbAAmI

Carolus_Rex said:

logical_song said:

CarlottaVance said:

justin124 said:

Brom said:

Speaking to friends voting in the West Midlands today, one has voted Tory for the first time. Another whose mum is a Labour member and has put in the miles on the campaign trail before might vote Andy Street too. With his business experience and Christianity he seems a decent sort, a gateway Tory if you will. I think his odds are great value and expect him to win. I also expect he'll have the ear of Theresa too for a bit of central government help, which will only enhance the West Midland's standing and is something neither Burnham or Rotherham cannot offer.

I'll also take a bit of pleasure in Sion Simon losing, after all his Web Cameron spoof all those years ago was a real nadir for political comedy. Given he's spent the last few years campaigning for this Mayoral role it would be amusing if it were snatched away from him at the last.

Christianity and the Tory party hardly go hand in hand.

And your basis for that sweeping assertion is?

How about:
"Again I tell you, it is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than for someone who is rich to enter the kingdom of God."

But not all Tories are rich. And some socialists are. So that won't do.

Given Labour's propensity to raise taxes, it's a good thing Jesus was so forgiving of tax collectors..

ThreeQuidder said:

Morris_Dancer said:

A Twitter account I follow focuses on graphs and the like. This one, on national confidence in the press, is striking. See where the UK is:
https://twitter.com/simongerman600/status/860099434905980928

There doesn't appear to be, at first glance, much correlation between trust levels and press freedom levels?

Seems to me the greatest correlation there is on the axis authoritarian/communitarian societies vs egalitarian/individualistic societies, rather than integrity or freedom of the press with some obvious exceptions, such as Iraq and Iraq, where distrust of the press is earned honestly.

MTimT said:

Cyan said:

I agree that there are far more class divisions in Britain than just between the elite and everyone else. But I was very surprised when someone wrote here that going to grammar school was a way into the elite. I wondered whether he had ever met anyone from the elite and experienced just what an extreme hatred they have for the lower orders, whom they hardly consider to be human. Similar attitudes towards those who are "beneath" them are evident in some social strata who are far lower down the pecking order, among people who - surprise surprise! - are usually the most slurpily deferential to those they consider to be socially above them. Many features of the way class works are extreme in Britain in comparison to other countries. All the stuff about "inclusion" is hypocritical cack.

Part of the problem of any conversation on the elite is agreeing on what the elite is. To me, from a lower middle class background, I've had a first rate education in STEM at a Red Brick, an MBA from the top business school in Europe, I've been a policy-maker at both national and international levels, my income is certainly in the top 5% and I live on a farm. By most people's standards, I am probably in the elite.

To me, I am clearly not, although I am invited to meet them if and when they need my knowledge.

My first reaction to your post is that I have not found the elite to be particularly exclusive. Then my second reaction is that, in some ways, they are like the British - everyone is tolerated, but you'll never be one of them. My third reaction is that, the elite is very much a combination of meritocracy and power/means. It is not a closed or unchanging group - indeed, Obama is clearly now in the elite but did not start out that way, in the same way that Mark Zuckerberg, Gates and the Google guys are now in the elite.

So, on your basic point, I believe very much that we grow our potential (or let it wither on the vine) by means of the work we put into challenging ourselves and stretching our abilities.

The best book I know on this is Mindset, by Carol Dweck. Mihali Csickszentmihalyi's Flow talk about happiness deriving from challenging ourselves to the maximum (and a bit more) or our current abilities.

If there's one thing that the Who Do You Think You Are series have shown, it's that the British class system is a remarkably dynamic thing and that families can rise and fall with surprising speed. Granted that the producers no doubt choose the most interesting stories but even so, the notion that we have some kind of immutable caste system is ludicrously far from the truth.

Paristonda said:

david_herdson said:

bobajobPB said:

SeanT said:

Another true story. My new girlfriend's name is Star.

That is literally her Christened name. STAR. I won't tell you her surname obv. But it fits.

STAR.

Well, it makes a change from puns on Brexit. Or talking about Brexit.

Is her surname Fish, Reenight or Tulled?

Ring?

Vation?

Ofdavid?

Tyourengines?

Sintheireyes

Please try not to indulge seanT's narcissism......it just makes him worse

Carolus_Rex said:

tyson said:

Could you imagine if Corbyn stepped down after today's results and Tom Watson or Starmer took over for the election? I think we would see just how flakey the Tories lead actually is.

It's not going to happen of course.......

Could Labour fill a vacancy that quickly?

If not then they go into an election with a deputy leader and no real indication of who will take over afterwards. I can't see how that improves their prospects.

Indeed. And up until now, unless they've openly disavowed him like woodcock, they have implicitly been saying they want him to prime minister. Junking him now is too late, it's not credible and the Tories would hit them just as hard. They have to wait it once more.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

OT Premium bond holders can now type their holders' numbers into the NS website to be told how much they've won -- no need to log in. So much for security. It's the stupidest idea since someone asked Ed Miliband if he fancied a bacon roll.

How hard would it be for you to find out your partner's number?

Hint: browsers will auto-fill it anyway.

I receive mine online through their app which is very good

you've been able to do this for many years? I check circa a dozen of my relatives holdings each month.

Anywhere I can bet on the Scottish Council elections? I've just realised that Ruth Davidson lead the SCons to just 13% of the vote last time out, I thought they had got 16%. They must have huge upside potential in terms of seats won.

Ishmael_Z said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

Scott_P said:

SeanT said:

FPT For our PB "we are really sovereign" Remoaners.

Imagine you're sitting in a room, and you want to leave. The door is ajar. The 27 other guys in the room tell you that "you're free to leave at any time".

But then they add, "by the way, if you do try and leave, there is a ravenous Doberman right outside, who will probably bite off your penis. We've deliberately kept him hungry for a week, though we used your money to feed him in the past. And if you get beyond the dog, we've built a moat full of angry crocodiles. Good luck!"

Are you, in fact, "free to leave the room"? Legalistically, maybe yes, but in actuality, in the real world? No. Not at all.

If Brexit is as bad as Remoaners say, then we were and are no longer sovereign in the EU. And this implicit imprisonment was only going to get worse, given the plans to widen the moat and buy another Doberman.

We have to make a run for it.

You are sitting in a nice warm club with 27 other folk, having a great time.

Then a spiv in Union Flag shoes shows up and whispers in your ear, "This club sucks. And a swarthy looking gentleman of the WOG persuasion is about to come in, sit in your chair, steal your drink and rape your wife. Best get out of here. And I know there is a Doberman outside, but he won't bite you, because you are special"

AND YOU BELIEVED HIM!

ROFLMAO

Trouble is, we really are gonna make a run for it, WE HAD A VOTE ON IT, and YOU LOST.

And worst of all, you poor saps are shackled to us, so you have to come with us even as we bolt, even as you scream NO NO NO THIS IS INSANE - and even better than that - the Doberman will probably bite off your penis, not mine, coz I'm a millionaire thriller writer in Primrose Hill, and I've got a private helicopter waiting in the yard, with room for one.

CHORTLE

So you're comparing Brexit to the Vietnam War?

The less technically advanced side won?

Scott_P in the aptly named movie aliens: Hey, maybe you haven’t been keeping up with current events, but we just got our asses kicked pal!

Hey, Scott_P, don't worry. Me and my squad of ultimate PB Tories will protect you! Check it out. Independently targeting particle-beam phalanx. WHAP! Fry half a city with this puppy. We got tactical smart missiles, phase plasma pulse rifles, RPGs. We got sonic, electronic ball-breakers! We got nukes, we got knives, sharp sticks...

AnneJGP said:

Carolus_Rex said:

tyson said:

Could you imagine if Corbyn stepped down after today's results and Tom Watson or Starmer took over for the election? I think we would see just how flakey the Tories lead actually is.

It's not going to happen of course.......

Could Labour fill a vacancy that quickly?

If not then they go into an election with a deputy leader and no real indication of who will take over afterwards. I can't see how that improves their prospects.

I read (through a link on here which I've forgotten, sorry) of one Labour MP who was telling his constituents that they could safely vote for him because he wouldn't vote for Mt Corbyn to be PM.

That sounded to me as though the PLP votes for PM candidates after a GE, which I never heard of before.

Anybody else notice this?

The PM has to command a majority of the House. So I suppose if enough of the PLP failed to support him on a confidence issue he wouldn't be PM, or not for very long.

AnneJGP said:

Carolus_Rex said:

tyson said:

Could you imagine if Corbyn stepped down after today's results and Tom Watson or Starmer took over for the election? I think we would see just how flakey the Tories lead actually is.

It's not going to happen of course.......

Could Labour fill a vacancy that quickly?

If not then they go into an election with a deputy leader and no real indication of who will take over afterwards. I can't see how that improves their prospects.

I read (through a link on here which I've forgotten, sorry) of one Labour MP who was telling his constituents that they could safely vote for him because he wouldn't vote for Mr Corbyn to be PM.

That sounded to me as though the PLP votes for PM candidates after a GE, which I never heard of before.

Anybody else notice this?

(edited for typo)

I presume that was JOhn Woodcock, who has says he cannot support Corbyn as PM, but I presume that does not mean the PLP votes for PM candidates after a GE, just that he personally will not back the man in such a role generally?

But at least he is honest, even if his position is a bit odd.

kle4 said:

Carolus_Rex said:

tyson said:

Could you imagine if Corbyn stepped down after today's results and Tom Watson or Starmer took over for the election? I think we would see just how flakey the Tories lead actually is.

It's not going to happen of course.......

Could Labour fill a vacancy that quickly?

If not then they go into an election with a deputy leader and no real indication of who will take over afterwards. I can't see how that improves their prospects.

Indeed. And up until now, unless they've openly disavowed him like woodcock, they have implicitly been saying they want him to prime minister. Junking him now is too late, it's not credible and the Tories would hit them just as hard. They have to wait it once more.

It's not too late....it would completely change the momentum of the election into something completely unpredictable. It would have to be a coronation for Starmer or Watson; Starmer by virtue that he is leading Brexit/ a two year timetable with a backhand deal that the 5% change gets passed through the NEC. It is the only way IMO to avoid a terrible, acrimonious, destructive battle for the heart of the party after a Corbyn landslide defeat.

kle4 said:

Pulpstar said:

Premum bonds, pheh.

I'm investing in Macron shares right now

Free money.

No such thing, but he must be a 1-100 shot now.

Carolus_Rex said:

AnneJGP said:

Carolus_Rex said:

tyson said:

Could you imagine if Corbyn stepped down after today's results and Tom Watson or Starmer took over for the election? I think we would see just how flakey the Tories lead actually is.

It's not going to happen of course.......

Could Labour fill a vacancy that quickly?

If not then they go into an election with a deputy leader and no real indication of who will take over afterwards. I can't see how that improves their prospects.

I read (through a link on here which I've forgotten, sorry) of one Labour MP who was telling his constituents that they could safely vote for him because he wouldn't vote for Mr Corbyn to be PM.

That sounded to me as though the PLP votes for PM candidates after a GE, which I never heard of before.

Anybody else notice this?

The PM has to command a majority of the House. So I suppose if enough of the PLP failed to support him on a confidence issue he wouldn't be PM, or not for very long.

Many thanks. So (some) Labour MPs hope to win the GE, vote down PM Corbyn's first measure, and install A. N. Other as PM within the first few weeks? The mind boggles.