politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » We can learn a lot about TMay’s negotiating style from this ch

First ... again!

Aargh - oh no, sniped by a matter of seconds.

Who is the thread header author?

Sixth! Like ukip?

@davidallengreen: Half-suspect the Prime Minister will next accuse the EU of "interfering" in the Brexit negotiations.

Is turnout brisk today?

Blue_rog said:

Who is the thread header author?

If it doesn't say, it is safe to assume it is Mike.

22. Kept the other job where she shouted at courts and at Europe, getting press into a frenzy, and then she took UK out of the EU at great cost, and left office.

At a glance, I’d say this thread says more about David Allen Green than it does Theresa May.

Speaking to friends voting in the West Midlands today, one has voted Tory for the first time. Another whose mum is a Labour member and has put in the miles on the campaign trail before might vote Andy Street too. With his business experience and Christianity he seems a decent sort, a gateway Tory if you will. I think his odds are great value and expect him to win. I also expect he'll have the ear of Theresa too for a bit of central government help, which will only enhance the West Midland's standing and is something neither Burnham or Rotherham cannot offer.

I'll also take a bit of pleasure in Sion Simon losing, after all his Web Cameron spoof all those years ago was a real nadir for political comedy. Given he's spent the last few years campaigning for this Mayoral role it would be amusing if it were snatched away from him at the last.

Brom said:

Speaking to friends voting in the West Midlands today, one has voted Tory for the first time. Another whose mum is a Labour member and has put in the miles on the campaign trail before might vote Andy Street too. With his business experience and Christianity he seems a decent sort, a gateway Tory if you will. I think his odds are great value and expect him to win. I also expect he'll have the ear of Theresa too for a bit of central government help, which will only enhance the West Midland's standing and is something neither Burnham or Rotherham cannot offer.

I'll also take a bit of pleasure in Sion Simon losing, after all his Web Cameron spoof all those years ago was a real nadir for political comedy. Given he's spent the last few years campaigning for this Mayoral role it would be amusing if it were snatched away from him at the last.

I was phoning for Andy Street last night, his business experience made the difference for waverers over Simon, I think he will just take it

AndyJS said:

Is turnout brisk today?

Steady seems to be the anecdotal report. But, aside from areas with predominantly elderly populations, at most polling stations it is difficult to tell until the critical 4-7 pm period.

ThreeQuidder said:

FPT, again...

david_herdson said:

ThreeQuidder said:

stodge said:

CarlottaVance said:

I expect a thread on this any moment now:

In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?
RIGHT: 46 (+3)
WRONG: 43 (-2)

Why don't you write one and send it to OGH ?

Because Smithson won't publish it, it goes against his message.

Don't be silly. Mike has published plenty of articles he's disagreed with, including a few from me.

When he disagrees, you can expect a well-argued reply from him early in the thread.

I've never had a piece rejected and only once had a single change required - and that was for legal reasons over a comment I made about the phone hacking police investigation.

If you make a good, reasoned case, I have little doubt that it'd be published.

Hmm. Reports from several people suggest otherwise, with disfavoured views being not only not published but not even getting the courtesy of acknowledgement and rejection.

If you are unhappy with the way the site is run p**s off and post elsewhere .

LOL: BBC complain about Sir Cliff Richard's legal bill of half a million, after they filmed police raid on his house.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/05/04/bbc-attacks-sir-cliff-richards-grossly-unreasonable-spending/

HYUFD said:

Brom said:

Speaking to friends voting in the West Midlands today, one has voted Tory for the first time. Another whose mum is a Labour member and has put in the miles on the campaign trail before might vote Andy Street too. With his business experience and Christianity he seems a decent sort, a gateway Tory if you will. I think his odds are great value and expect him to win. I also expect he'll have the ear of Theresa too for a bit of central government help, which will only enhance the West Midland's standing and is something neither Burnham or Rotherham cannot offer.

I'll also take a bit of pleasure in Sion Simon losing, after all his Web Cameron spoof all those years ago was a real nadir for political comedy. Given he's spent the last few years campaigning for this Mayoral role it would be amusing if it were snatched away from him at the last.

I was phoning for Andy Street last night, his business experience made the difference for waverers over Simon, I think he will just take it

I do hope so. He does appear the stronger candidate and I expect him to win. The timing of the general election and a backlash against Birmingham Council should work in his favour.

SeanT said:

FPT For our PB "we are really sovereign" Remoaners.

Imagine you're sitting in a room, and you want to leave. The door is ajar. The 27 other guys in the room tell you that "you're free to leave at any time".

But then they add, "by the way, if you do try and leave, there is a ravenous Doberman right outside, who will probably bite off your penis. We've deliberately kept him hungry for a week, though we used your money to feed him in the past. And if you get beyond the dog, we've built a moat full of angry crocodiles. Good luck!"

Are you, in fact, "free to leave the room"? Legalistically, maybe yes, but in actuality, in the real world? No. Not at all.

If Brexit is as bad as Remoaners say, then we were and are no longer sovereign in the EU. And this implicit imprisonment was only going to get worse, given the plans to widen the moat and buy another Doberman.

We have to make a run for it.

Believe in BRITAIN!

Be LEAVE!

FPT

logical_song said:

ThreeQuidder said:

stodge said:

CarlottaVance said:

I expect a thread on this any moment now:

In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?
RIGHT: 46 (+3)
WRONG: 43 (-2)

Why don't you write one and send it to OGH ?

Because Smithson won't publish it, it goes against his message.

Doesn't OGH publish articles from supporters of different Parties?

He does. Pretty much at the weekends Mike cedes control of PB to two Tories, just not any Tories, one is a constituency Chairman, whilst the other is an activist.

I think David Herdson had said, his pieces are published as he's written them (bar one which needed a very minor edit/line added during the phone hacking trials to avoid legal problems for Mike.)

I've been writing articles for PB for over five years, I've only once asked Mike for permission to write a thread (it was a thread on a Paddy Power market on the size of Donald Trump's todger, and Mike's reply was let's hope PBers rise to occasion and don't find it hard to swallow)

All other threads are written without vetting or approval*.

He's published threads by Leavers such as Mortimer, Casino Royale, Wulfrun Phil and Richard Tyndall. to name but four.

Keiran Pedley was a Labour member during his first 18 months on PB, his pieces got published.

Cyclefree can attest all her pieces get published and unedited.

If you want to write a piece for PB, please let me know, I do my best to get pieces from PBers published, doesn't matter what your political allegiance is, if it it good, it should get published.

The only thing that usually prevents them being published is either events have moved on or someone else has written something similar.

*Only once has Mike pulled one of my threads before it was published (that was in 2012, when I had done a thread on the White House Race, written it in the evening, scheduled to publish overnight, Mike pulled it because by the time I had gone to bed, some new polling had come out which rendered my thread obsolete and Mike was awake at the time and wrote a thread on the new polls'

Accrington Stanley David Allen Green? Who are they?

Brom said:

Speaking to friends voting in the West Midlands today, one has voted Tory for the first time. Another whose mum is a Labour member and has put in the miles on the campaign trail before might vote Andy Street too. With his business experience and Christianity he seems a decent sort, a gateway Tory if you will. I think his odds are great value and expect him to win. I also expect he'll have the ear of Theresa too for a bit of central government help, which will only enhance the West Midland's standing and is something neither Burnham or Rotherham cannot offer.

I'll also take a bit of pleasure in Sion Simon losing, after all his Web Cameron spoof all those years ago was a real nadir for political comedy. Given he's spent the last few years campaigning for this Mayoral role it would be amusing if it were snatched away from him at the last.

Fingers crossed for Andy Street - we need more people like him in politics.

I think the thread in the header is plagiarised from this one:

https://twitter.com/SimonFRCox/status/859799583249108992

TheScreamingEagles said:

FPT

logical_song said:

ThreeQuidder said:

stodge said:

CarlottaVance said:

I expect a thread on this any moment now:

In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?
RIGHT: 46 (+3)
WRONG: 43 (-2)

Why don't you write one and send it to OGH ?

Because Smithson won't publish it, it goes against his message.

Doesn't OGH publish articles from supporters of different Parties?

He does. Pretty much at the weekends Mike cedes control of PB to two Tories, just not any Tories, one is a constituency Chairman, whilst the other is an activist.

I think David Herdson had said, his pieces are published as he's written them (bar one which needed a very minor edit/line added during the phone hacking trials to avoid legal problems for Mike.)

I've been writing articles for PB for over five years, I've only once asked Mike for permission to write a thread (it was a thread on a Paddy Power market on the size of Donald Trump's todger, and Mike's reply was let's hope PBers rise to occasion and don't find it hard to swallow)

All other threads are written without vetting or approval*.

He's published threads by Leavers such as Mortimer, Casino Royale, Wulfrun Phil and Richard Tyndall. to name but four.

Keiran Pedley was a Labour member during his first 18 months on PB, his pieces got published.

Cyclefree can attest all her pieces get published and unedited.

If you want to write a piece for PB, please let me know, I do my best to get pieces from PBers published, doesn't matter what your political allegiance is, if it it good, it should get published.

The only thing that usually prevents them being published is either events have moved on or someone else has written something similar.

*Only once has Mike pulled one of my threads before it was published (that was in 2012, when I had done a thread on the White House Race, written it in the evening, scheduled to publish overnight, Mike pulled it because by the time I had gone to bed, some new polling had come out which rendered my thread obsolete and Mike was awake at the time and wrote a thread on the new polls'

Don't forget me! I've had two threads published: one in 2014 re. by-election trends, and one in October last year re. the EURef result.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Brom said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

I think OGH has lost the plot... laters.

I only read the below the line stuff! Some of the OGH rants and slants on current affairs would make Gina Miller blush.

It's election season so fair enough, can do what he likes.... the format of this thread header though is a 'mare. Longest ever perhaps?

A fine example why Twitter will be obsolete in 10 years. There's some things in life that require more than 140 characters.

ThreeQuidder said:

FPT, again...

david_herdson said:

ThreeQuidder said:

stodge said:

CarlottaVance said:

I expect a thread on this any moment now:

In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?
RIGHT: 46 (+3)
WRONG: 43 (-2)

Why don't you write one and send it to OGH ?

Because Smithson won't publish it, it goes against his message.

Don't be silly. Mike has published plenty of articles he's disagreed with, including a few from me.

When he disagrees, you can expect a well-argued reply from him early in the thread.

I've never had a piece rejected and only once had a single change required - and that was for legal reasons over a comment I made about the phone hacking police investigation.

If you make a good, reasoned case, I have little doubt that it'd be published.

Hmm. Reports from several people suggest otherwise, with disfavoured views being not only not published but not even getting the courtesy of acknowledgement and rejection.

Mike gets a lot of emails a day, if it's not from an email address he's used to, sometimes it gets lost in the ether.

Sometimes even I don't get replies back, and I have to ring up Mike to discuss it.

Brom said:

HYUFD said:

Brom said:

Speaking to friends voting in the West Midlands today, one has voted Tory for the first time. Another whose mum is a Labour member and has put in the miles on the campaign trail before might vote Andy Street too. With his business experience and Christianity he seems a decent sort, a gateway Tory if you will. I think his odds are great value and expect him to win. I also expect he'll have the ear of Theresa too for a bit of central government help, which will only enhance the West Midland's standing and is something neither Burnham or Rotherham cannot offer.

I'll also take a bit of pleasure in Sion Simon losing, after all his Web Cameron spoof all those years ago was a real nadir for political comedy. Given he's spent the last few years campaigning for this Mayoral role it would be amusing if it were snatched away from him at the last.

I was phoning for Andy Street last night, his business experience made the difference for waverers over Simon, I think he will just take it

I do hope so. He does appear the stronger candidate and I expect him to win. The timing of the general election and a backlash against Birmingham Council should work in his favour.

If Street wins mostly because of his business experience then presumably the Conservatives will not do as well in the GE when those are not present ?

It's fair to say that it hasn't been Theresa's best few days. Although trivial in itself, Chip-gate invited unflattering comparisons with Ed Miliband. Then, more seriously, we had the unexpected outburst of belligerence towards Mr Juncker and dark references to political sabotage. Theresa should be okay - Corbyn and Labour's general haplessness remain the perfect firewall - but all of a sudden she looks politically mortal.

In response to stories of Brussels's meddling, RussianEmbassy tweets:

Praise God it's not Russia this time

https://mobile.twitter.com/RussianEmbassy

SimonStClare said:

Latest poll round up, for those that may have missed it.

(Ipsos Mori, Phone, 3rd May)
Con 49 (+6)
Lab 26 (-4)
LD 13 (NC)
UKIP 4 (-2)
Grn 1 (-3)
======================
Panelbase
Con 47%
Lab 30%
LD 10%
UKIP 5%
======================
Kantar poll
Con 48% (+2)
Lab 24% (-)
LD 11% (-)
UKIP 7% (-1)
======================
Times YouGov poll
Con 48 (+4)
Lab 29 (-2)
LD 10 (-1)
UKIP 5 (-1)
======================

Labour too high in some of those 29/30% you are having a giraffe. I also still can't really believe that basically half of all those that turn up on GE day will vote Tory, I just can't.

I have spoken to a number of labour voting friends who interlace the name Corbyn with masses of expletives, but then say I really can't ever vote Tory, I don't mind May, but I just can't do it....perhaps I will protest vote Green or something.

SeanT said:

FPT For our PB "we are really sovereign" Remoaners.

Imagine you're sitting in a room, and you want to leave. The door is ajar. The 27 other guys in the room tell you that "you're free to leave at any time".

But then they add, "by the way, if you do try and leave, there is a ravenous Doberman right outside, who will probably bite off your penis. We've deliberately kept him hungry for a week, though we used your money to feed him in the past. And if you get beyond the dog, we've built a moat full of angry crocodiles. Good luck!"

Are you, in fact, "free to leave the room"? Legalistically, maybe yes, but in actuality, in the real world? No. Not at all.

If Brexit is as bad as Remoaners say, then we were and are no longer sovereign in the EU. And this implicit imprisonment was only going to get worse, given the plans to widen the moat and buy another Doberman.

We have to make a run for it.

You are sitting in a nice warm club with 27 other folk, having a great time.

Then a spiv in Union Flag shoes shows up and whispers in your ear, "This club sucks. And a swarthy looking gentleman of the WOG persuasion is about to come in, sit in your chair, steal your drink and rape your wife. Best get out of here. And I know there is a Doberman outside, but he won't bite you, because you are special"

AND YOU BELIEVED HIM!

ROFLMAO

TheScreamingEagles said:

FPT

logical_song said:

ThreeQuidder said:

stodge said:

CarlottaVance said:

I expect a thread on this any moment now:

In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?
RIGHT: 46 (+3)
WRONG: 43 (-2)

Why don't you write one and send it to OGH ?

Because Smithson won't publish it, it goes against his message.

Doesn't OGH publish articles from supporters of different Parties?

He does. Pretty much at the weekends Mike cedes control of PB to two Tories, just not any Tories, one is a constituency Chairman, whilst the other is an activist.

I think David Herdson had said, his pieces are published as he's written them (bar one which needed a very minor edit/line added during the phone hacking trials to avoid legal problems for Mike.)

I've been writing articles for PB for over five years, I've only once asked Mike for permission to write a thread (it was a thread on a Paddy Power market on the size of Donald Trump's todger, and Mike's reply was let's hope PBers rise to occasion and don't find it hard to swallow)

All other threads are written without vetting or approval*.

He's published threads by Leavers such as Mortimer, Casino Royale, Wulfrun Phil and Richard Tyndall. to name but four.

Keiran Pedley was a Labour member during his first 18 months on PB, his pieces got published.

Cyclefree can attest all her pieces get published and unedited.

If you want to write a piece for PB, please let me know, I do my best to get pieces from PBers published, doesn't matter what your political allegiance is, if it it good, it should get published.

The only thing that usually prevents them being published is either events have moved on or someone else has written something similar.

*Only once has Mike pulled one of my threads before it was published (that was in 2012, when I had done a thread on the White House Race, written it in the evening, scheduled to publish overnight, Mike pulled it because by the time I had gone to bed, some new polling had come out which rendered my thread obsolete and Mike was awake at the time and wrote a thread on the new polls'

I have to say I think the threads are a good mix on the whole, even if a fraction more towards the Remain end of the spectrum there are plenty of Leave articles too and Tories, Labour and LDs all get a hearing though we could do with a few more Kippers and Scots Nats if any one that way inclined feels like writing TUD or Scottslass maybe? Do we have any PB kippers lefr? However kudos to everyone who takes the time to write an article

Carolus_Rex said:

The key passage here reads "She was not the first Home Secretary who had to deal with this request".

If it had been easy, Abu Quatada would have been long gone before she became Home Secretary.

Now you could read all this as meaning she made a meal of getting rid of Abu Quatada, or you could read it as meaning she wouldn't give up until she achieved her aim.

And that she achieved what her predecessors couldn't do.

SimonStClare said:

Latest poll round up, for those that may have missed it.

(Ipsos Mori, Phone, 3rd May)
Con 49 (+6)
Lab 26 (-4)
LD 13 (NC)
UKIP 4 (-2)
Grn 1 (-3)

Ipsos MORI was from last week!

Brom said:

HYUFD said:

Brom said:

Speaking to friends voting in the West Midlands today, one has voted Tory for the first time. Another whose mum is a Labour member and has put in the miles on the campaign trail before might vote Andy Street too. With his business experience and Christianity he seems a decent sort, a gateway Tory if you will. I think his odds are great value and expect him to win. I also expect he'll have the ear of Theresa too for a bit of central government help, which will only enhance the West Midland's standing and is something neither Burnham or Rotherham cannot offer.

I'll also take a bit of pleasure in Sion Simon losing, after all his Web Cameron spoof all those years ago was a real nadir for political comedy. Given he's spent the last few years campaigning for this Mayoral role it would be amusing if it were snatched away from him at the last.

I was phoning for Andy Street last night, his business experience made the difference for waverers over Simon, I think he will just take it

I do hope so. He does appear the stronger candidate and I expect him to win. The timing of the general election and a backlash against Birmingham Council should work in his favour.

Yes plus outer areas not wanting to be swamped by the interests of Brum

FF43 said:

The key question for Brexit from this anecdote is whether Mrs May ends up doing the sensible thing after pretending to do the alternative. If so, that's sort of OK.

I don't know if the opportunity of a deal is open to her under the circumstances. I have just been thinking about some quite simple and profound messages that have been coming out from the two sides. Consider:

UK Government

1. May says, quite clearly, that we will make a success of Brexit
2. May also says, quite clearly, that we are leaving the EU, and its single market, and its customs union

European Commission & EU political leaders

1. Brexit will not and cannot possibly be a success
2. The UK cannot have a deal that is as good as EU membership

And the same messages keep coming out of Europe, regardless of how many times May repeats hers.

My interpretation of this is that the EC/EU figures are so thoroughly wedded to their organisation, and believe so much in both its manifest perfection and destiny, that they find the idea that anybody would want to leave it literally incomprehensible. They can't cope with it. So the words "we will make a success of Brexit" enter their ears, go round and round in their heads, pass through the Europhilia Lobe a few times, and are converted into "we want to stay in the EU, just with all the bits we find objectionable removed." They find the proposition that Brexit can be successful impossible to take seriously (which is both arrogant and presumptuous, when you think about it - that's our business, not theirs,) and consequently they assume that the Prime Minister is lying about wanting to leave, and will perform a 180-degree about-turn if only they stonewall, browbeat and belittle her in public the requisite number of times. It's extremely strange.

It may be that the centime won't finally drop for them until they present May with a bill for a trillion Euros and a list of other impossible demands and, instead of caving in as they appear to expect, she gets up from the negotiating table and walks away. And then, of course, it'll probably be too late.

FrancisUrquhart said:

SimonStClare said:

Latest poll round up, for those that may have missed it.

(Ipsos Mori, Phone, 3rd May)
Con 49 (+6)
Lab 26 (-4)
LD 13 (NC)
UKIP 4 (-2)
Grn 1 (-3)
======================
Panelbase
Con 47%
Lab 30%
LD 10%
UKIP 5%
======================
Kantar poll
Con 48% (+2)
Lab 24% (-)
LD 11% (-)
UKIP 7% (-1)
======================
Times YouGov poll
Con 48 (+4)
Lab 29 (-2)
LD 10 (-1)
UKIP 5 (-1)
======================

Labour too high in some of those 29/30% you are having a giraffe. I also still can't really believe that basically half of all those that turn up on GE day will vote Tory, I just can't.

I have spoken to a number of labour voting friends who interlace the name Corbyn with masses of expletives, but then say I really can't ever vote Tory, I don't mind May, but I just can't do it....perhaps I will protest vote Green or something.

I agree. But I think almost all of us move in circles where people are far more aware and interested in the political world than is typical or representative. So the anecdotes in here - from all political directions - have very limited value.

I'd make an honourable exception for genuinely honest reports from PB'ers who have been out on the doorstep.

Pulpstar said:

MarkSenior said:

Brom said:

HYUFD said:

Brom said:

Speaking to friends voting in the West Midlands today, one has voted Tory for the first time. Another whose mum is a Labour member and has put in the miles on the campaign trail before might vote Andy Street too. With his business experience and Christianity he seems a decent sort, a gateway Tory if you will. I think his odds are great value and expect him to win. I also expect he'll have the ear of Theresa too for a bit of central government help, which will only enhance the West Midland's standing and is something neither Burnham or Rotherham cannot offer.

I'll also take a bit of pleasure in Sion Simon losing, after all his Web Cameron spoof all those years ago was a real nadir for political comedy. Given he's spent the last few years campaigning for this Mayoral role it would be amusing if it were snatched away from him at the last.

I was phoning for Andy Street last night, his business experience made the difference for waverers over Simon, I think he will just take it

I do hope so. He does appear the stronger candidate and I expect him to win. The timing of the general election and a backlash against Birmingham Council should work in his favour.

If Street wins mostly because of his business experience then presumably the Conservatives will not do as well in the GE when those are not present ?

Hmm I think the Tories will do relatively better in the West Mids in the GE. Working backwards it is one of the reasons I tipped Simon. The base ground is astronomically difficult for Street.

This is one market where the odds didn't make sense at all. There's no way Street should be such a short favourite when most of the West Mids area is solid red. Street is 1.3 on Betfair right now, in a very thin market.

Black_Rook said:

They can't cope with it. So the words "we will make a success of Brexit" enter their ears, go round and round in their heads, pass through the Europhilia Lobe a few times, and are converted into "we want to stay in the EU, just with all the bits we find objectionable removed."

There is no transmogrification of the message required for them to come to that conclusion. It's explicit in everything May's said on the subject, particularly in the Lancaster House speech.

Brom said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Brom said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

I think OGH has lost the plot... laters.

I only read the below the line stuff! Some of the OGH rants and slants on current affairs would make Gina Miller blush.

It's election season so fair enough, can do what he likes.... the format of this thread header though is a 'mare. Longest ever perhaps?

A fine example why Twitter will be obsolete in 10 years. There's some things in life that require more than 140 characters.

I recall, in around early 2007, somebody fairly senior at an international FI explaining that if an email of message couldn't be read on a single Blackberry screen and answered Y/N, it would be ignored. That FI was bailed out and should have been left to die. Twitter just follows the money. Things may require more words, but it's increasingly unlikely that they will get them.

On topic, you'd think that Abu was a nice innocent, caught in the crossfire.

Now, everyone is entitled to justice and due process. But governments are equally entitled to press, within the possibly undefined-at-the-time bounds of the law, for action to be taken against threats to society,

SeanT said:

FPT For our PB "we are really sovereign" Remoaners.

Imagine you're sitting in a room, and you want to leave. The door is ajar. The 27 other guys in the room tell you that "you're free to leave at any time".

But then they add, "by the way, if you do try and leave, there is a ravenous Doberman right outside, who will probably bite off your penis. We've deliberately kept him hungry for a week, though we used your money to feed him in the past. And if you get beyond the dog, we've built a moat full of angry crocodiles. Good luck!"

Are you, in fact, "free to leave the room"? Legalistically, maybe yes, but in actuality, in the real world? No. Not at all.

If Brexit is as bad as Remoaners say, then we were and are no longer sovereign in the EU. And this implicit imprisonment was only going to get worse, given the plans to widen the moat and buy another Doberman.

We have to make a run for it.

No. We're out and will only deal with the EU if we want to. The point is, we will want to. How can we not have a relationship with the continent we are a part of? They know all that.

Essexit said:

Blue_rog said:

Who is the thread header author?

Scott_P

oh god it's bad enough that he writes about 1 in 4 posts, now his name pops up in others too :-)

"Despite Brexit" or "because of brexit" dependent if it's good news for UK or not.

Arthur_Penny said:

I have done my civic duty and voted in the Coundon Ward. (1.20pm)

Voting has been at pace (a snail's pace) and I can confirm that 6 ballots had been handed out prior to my entrance into the polling station.

Is that Coventry North West? Do you think Geoffrey Robinson could lose his seat this time to the Tory candidate Resham Kotecha...

SimonStClare said:

YouGov 3rd May:

In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?

RIGHT: 46 (+3)
WRONG: 43 (-2)

Oohh perhaps that will be the next thread :-)

Sunil_Prasannan said:

SimonStClare said:

Latest poll round up, for those that may have missed it.

(Ipsos Mori, Phone, 3rd May)
Con 49 (+6)
Lab 26 (-4)
LD 13 (NC)
UKIP 4 (-2)
Grn 1 (-3)

Ipsos MORI was from last week!

You're right Dr Blue, it's the latest Mori poll however, hot sure how the date was added.

Relatively good poll for the LDs with Ipsos Mori, moving up a bit to 13% towards the minimum of 15% I think they'll get.

TheScreamingEagles said:

SeanT said:

Scott_P said:

SeanT said:

FPT For our PB "we are really sovereign" Remoaners.

Imagine you're sitting in a room, and you want to leave. The door is ajar. The 27 other guys in the room tell you that "you're free to leave at any time".

But then they add, "by the way, if you do try and leave, there is a ravenous Doberman right outside, who will probably bite off your penis. We've deliberately kept him hungry for a week, though we used your money to feed him in the past. And if you get beyond the dog, we've built a moat full of angry crocodiles. Good luck!"

Are you, in fact, "free to leave the room"? Legalistically, maybe yes, but in actuality, in the real world? No. Not at all.

If Brexit is as bad as Remoaners say, then we were and are no longer sovereign in the EU. And this implicit imprisonment was only going to get worse, given the plans to widen the moat and buy another Doberman.

We have to make a run for it.

You are sitting in a nice warm club with 27 other folk, having a great time.

Then a spiv in Union Flag shoes shows up and whispers in your ear, "This club sucks. And a swarthy looking gentleman of the WOG persuasion is about to come in, sit in your chair, steal your drink and rape your wife. Best get out of here. And I know there is a Doberman outside, but he won't bite you, because you are special"

AND YOU BELIEVED HIM!

ROFLMAO

Trouble is, we really are gonna make a run for it, WE HAD A VOTE ON IT, and YOU LOST.

And worst of all, you poor saps are shackled to us, so you have to come with us even as we bolt, even as you scream NO NO NO THIS IS INSANE - and even better than that - the Doberman will probably bite off your penis, not mine, coz I'm a millionaire thriller writer in Primrose Hill, and I've got a private helicopter waiting in the yard, with room for one.

CHORTLE

So you're comparing Brexit to the Vietnam War?

The less technically advanced side won?

I know its Wikipedia but I seem to be missing David Allen Green's stint as a government lawyer in the home office, or his extensive experience in deportation cases on either side, or his sources of this devastating piece of information. I thought the critique of Brexiteers was that they were not willing to listen to experts who know their stuff, and were too willing to listen to dilettantes. Law degrees cover rather a wide range of laws, that's why lawyers tend to specialise post degree. Without this specialisation can somebody please explain the difference between this bloke and the chaps currently sat outside my office drinking the Austrian equivalent of special brew and shouting "Nennen sie sich eine Taube" at the Birds.

Scott_P said:

SeanT said:

FPT For our PB "we are really sovereign" Remoaners.

Imagine you're sitting in a room, and you want to leave. The door is ajar. The 27 other guys in the room tell you that "you're free to leave at any time".

But then they add, "by the way, if you do try and leave, there is a ravenous Doberman right outside, who will probably bite off your penis. We've deliberately kept him hungry for a week, though we used your money to feed him in the past. And if you get beyond the dog, we've built a moat full of angry crocodiles. Good luck!"

Are you, in fact, "free to leave the room"? Legalistically, maybe yes, but in actuality, in the real world? No. Not at all.

If Brexit is as bad as Remoaners say, then we were and are no longer sovereign in the EU. And this implicit imprisonment was only going to get worse, given the plans to widen the moat and buy another Doberman.

We have to make a run for it.

You are sitting in a nice warm club with 27 other folk, having a great time.

Then a spiv in Union Flag shoes shows up and whispers in your ear, "This club sucks. And a swarthy looking gentleman of the WOG persuasion is about to come in, sit in your chair, steal your drink and rape your wife. Best get out of here. And I know there is a Doberman outside, but he won't bite you, because you are special"

AND YOU BELIEVED HIM!

ROFLMAO

Years ago, you joined a nice warm club. It was pretty exclusive. All the members were more or less equal and jolly good sports. You were happy to pay your membership dues because you thought it exellent value for money.

But then the club decided this wasn't enough. The club's rulebook expanded and expanded, and worse, you were expected to abide by those rules in your own home, not just in the clubhouse. You were genuinely shocked when the club began policing your home and family life.

You protested, but the other members of the club shouted you down. To drown out your voice, the other club members invited a lot of new people into the club. The club used to be a very good place to network and find work. But with all the new members, suddenly you're finding all the plum jobs are going to them rather than you, and you're beginning to feel very silly for paying all this money to be a member of a club you no longer feel serves your best interest. Worst of all, you're the one forking out for all the improvements being made to the clubhouse to accommodate all the new members, to which you see little benefit.

So you go to the other club members and say "Not terribly happy about this, can we chat about maybe changing a few of the rules or reducing the membership fee?" And they tell you to get stuffed.

That's when you decide fair enough, I'll take my chances with the Doberman.

Black_Rook said:

FF43 said:

The key question for Brexit from this anecdote is whether Mrs May ends up doing the sensible thing after pretending to do the alternative. If so, that's sort of OK.

I don't know if the opportunity of a deal is open to her under the circumstances. I have just been thinking about some quite simple and profound messages that have been coming out from the two sides. Consider:

UK Government

1. May says, quite clearly, that we will make a success of Brexit
2. May also says, quite clearly, that we are leaving the EU, and its single market, and its customs union

European Commission & EU political leaders

1. Brexit will not and cannot possibly be a success
2. The UK cannot have a deal that is as good as EU membership

And the same messages keep coming out of Europe, regardless of how many times May repeats hers.

My interpretation of this is that the EC/EU figures are so thoroughly wedded to their organisation, and believe so much in both its manifest perfection and destiny, that they find the idea that anybody would want to leave it literally incomprehensible. They can't cope with it. So the words "we will make a success of Brexit" enter their ears, go round and round in their heads, pass through the Europhilia Lobe a few times, and are converted into "we want to stay in the EU, just with all the bits we find objectionable removed." They find the proposition that Brexit can be successful impossible to take seriously (which is both arrogant and presumptuous, when you think about it - that's our business, not theirs,) and consequently they assume that the Prime Minister is lying about wanting to leave, and will perform a 180-degree about-turn if only they stonewall, browbeat and belittle her in public the requisite number of times. It's extremely strange.

It may be that the centime won't finally drop for them until they present May with a bill for a trillion Euros and a list of other impossible demands and, instead of caving in as they appear to expect, she gets up from the negotiating table and walks away. And then, of course, it'll probably be too late.

FWIW walking away with no deal would hit the City hard !

Sandpit said:

Pulpstar said:

MarkSenior said:

Brom said:

HYUFD said:

Brom said:

Speaking to friends voting in the West Midlands today, one has voted Tory for the first time. Another whose mum is a Labour member and has put in the miles on the campaign trail before might vote Andy Street too. With his business experience and Christianity he seems a decent sort, a gateway Tory if you will. I think his odds are great value and expect him to win. I also expect he'll have the ear of Theresa too for a bit of central government help, which will only enhance the West Midland's standing and is something neither Burnham or Rotherham cannot offer.

I'll also take a bit of pleasure in Sion Simon losing, after all his Web Cameron spoof all those years ago was a real nadir for political comedy. Given he's spent the last few years campaigning for this Mayoral role it would be amusing if it were snatched away from him at the last.

I was phoning for Andy Street last night, his business experience made the difference for waverers over Simon, I think he will just take it

I do hope so. He does appear the stronger candidate and I expect him to win. The timing of the general election and a backlash against Birmingham Council should work in his favour.

If Street wins mostly because of his business experience then presumably the Conservatives will not do as well in the GE when those are not present ?

Hmm I think the Tories will do relatively better in the West Mids in the GE. Working backwards it is one of the reasons I tipped Simon. The base ground is astronomically difficult for Street.

This is one market where the odds didn't make sense at all. There's no way Street should be such a short favourite when most of the West Mids area is solid red. Street is 1.3 on Betfair right now, in a very thin market.

But is the West Mids actually solid red? It certainly was solid red in 2015 but if we are lead to believe the national polls and indeed the subsamples it's probably true that 50% of the constituencies in Birmingham, Dudley, Wolverhampton, Sandwell, Coventry Solihull and Walsall will be blue in a few weeks time.