politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf on a windy day and LAB still struggling to win CON con

compouter1 said:

MikeL said:

MikeSmithson said:

ComRes phone poll coming out at 10pm with big changes

Laat month it was CON 32 LAB 37 LD 11 UKIP 11

Last month it was 33/37/11/11 (per UKPR)

....and there was a Sunday Com Res showing 32/35/9/16 earlier this month.

That Indy on Sunday ComRes poll was an online poll, tonight's is a phone poll.

corporeal said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

corporeal said:

JohnLilburne said:

GeoffM said:

dr_spyn said:

Who was the only PM was born outside the UK?

Bonar Law, Canada.

and Wellington, he was born in Ireland when it was not yet part of the UK.

Who was the only Prime Minister born in Wales?

Lloyd George

Nah, he was born in England, the only Welsh Prime Minister is Julia Gillard.

Lloyd George wasn't born in Wales but we count him as Welsh (a much better claim than say half the England cricket team have). Only British PM to learn English as a second language.

Ooops, I stand corrected.

MikeK said:

A view on Populus:

POPULUS POLL 25-27th OCTOBER
New Populus Voting Intention figures: Lab 38 (-1); Cons 33 (-1); LD 12 (+1); UKIP 9 (-1); Oth 7 (-1)

Doesn't make any sense. 4 parties have all lost a percentage point and the Lib Dems have gained 1. Am I missing something? It means the last figures added up to 102 and these add up to 99.

Don't even start me on the weighting. They have at least upped UKIP from 20 to 21 only means they have thrown away 164 respondents views.
(From General Election 2015)

Most polls don't add up to 100, because of roundings.

A ridiculous spat between myself and a poster called The Results has been taking place on UKPR, if anyone wants to be amused for a few seconds.

Has the SNP promised to disband if Scotland votes Yes to independence?

It's 10pm and seemingly no news on the ComRes poll...

Charles said:

It wasn't meant to be a criticism of them - I do think there is likely to be an unconscious bias from the make-up of the employee bias. The other element, I think, which demonstrates a bias is the desire (I think I recall a spectator article about it) is the search for someone to say controversial things on the right. this means that 2 right vs 2 left often becomes 1 Tory, vs 2 Labour vs 1 "right winger" (e.g. UKIP, or Peter Hitchens, or Simon Heffer) that are often very much not Tories.

It was more the fact that all their coverage could be called into question. How could they get around that issue?

You're on to a pattern there - as a Labour MP I was frustrated by the frequency that someone like Clare Short or even George Galloway would be put on to be one of the "left" participants. I think the thing is that they aim for a broad left-right balance but like to have colour, which means dissent, and dissent is usually more noticeable on the government side, since that's where it's actually worth revolting since it may change policy.

So rather than a long-term political bias, it's perhaps a journalistic bias, for livelier debates at the expense of fair treatment of both main parties.