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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf on a windy day and LAB still struggling to win CON con
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf on a windy day and LAB still struggling to win CON converts
The chart shows the broad make-up of the current LAB vote according to today’s poll. Although there is the normal variation from pollster to pollster and poll to poll the big picture is the same – very few CON voters from last time have moved into the LAB camp.
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http://yougov.co.uk/news/2013/03/05/analysis-ukip-voters/
RIP LR.
Whether Labour will actually hang on to that large chunk of their support which comes from 2010 LibDem voters is impossible to say for sure. I'd be very surprised if there's not some swingback along that axis, the questions are how much and whether this will be uniform or vary according to the type of seat.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b03cnjpj
From July. Guardian - Chilcot inquiry presses for release of Iraq war documents
"Chilcot told Cameron that the inquiry would "be in a position to begin the process of writing to individuals that may be criticised at the end of the month, with letters containing the provisional criticisms to follow at the end of October … That will be a confidential process."
Under the so-called Maxwellisation process, any individual an inquiry intends to criticise is offered the opportunity to make representations. Blair is likely to be one of those criticised, not least for not consulting his attorney general Lord Goldsmith or his cabinet colleagues in a proper manner before the March 2003 invasion.
Chilcot said the inquiry intended to complete "at the earliest opportunity" a report "which reflects the magnitude of the issues we have ben examining and the importance of the lessons we believe need to be learned""
http://www.spectator.co.uk/life/the-wiki-man/9063211/the-wiki-man-hows-this-for-a-smart-car/
Ed M, in contrast, has the easiest gig in modern political history, according to you. Yet he's still only 5% ahead despite being the only opposition, and with UKIP splitting the right-of-centre vote. Odd, then, that Cameron has held on to most of that 2010 support.
I've had a little nibble at your Naas picks too. Many thanks for sharing your thoughts - whatever the result might be. Appreciated.
Whether the (inevitable) future Tory advance next year and into 2015 transpires because of kippers going blue, or Labour also shedding a bit to blue, 2010 non voters shifting blue, or some Labour or LibDem 2010 voters not bothering in 2015, or LibDems recouping some of their losses from Labour...the permutations are almost endless, aren't they...I don't give a monkey's. Neither should you.
"Introducing facts into the immigration debate is like teaching a pig to sing; it wastes your time and annoys the pig."
Enjoyable article. Poor Stewart Jackson. It can't be fun always being angry. He was like that when he posted here.
I come into contact with plenty of them. Europe unites them, the whole country going to the dogs unites them, and anger at Dave not having won an OM unites them (itself more indicative of a changing country less tolerant of perceived intolerance than a failing necessarily of Cam). For sure.
But most of these people have been Cons voters their entire lives. Of course they find it amusing to give the govt and in particular Dave a kick up the **** but they also know that the Cons are the party most in tune with their own world view that are likely to come to power. They get the fact that if they don't "return" to the Cons EdM will be given an easier ride and so, come GE2015, they will switch back to the Tories.
UKIP is headed towards 3-5%. Tops.
It is the Lab=>LD=>Lab switchers where the battle will be fought.
FPT It will take more than a giant beach ball to despatch me.
`But,yes, with a biased BBC`
But the BBC were cheerleading for Cameron and villified Brown in 2010.One remembers Andrew Marr trying to create doubts about Brown`s longstanding medical condition,for example
Hopefully the BBC have learnt their lesson that the man who had a 28 point lead and didn`t get a majority is unlikely to come back from a deficit. Ed Balls is likely to decide their licence fee in 2016,so it makes sense to be impartial.
Sport yes, but on drama, comedy and news, is Hodges trying to tell us that Sky or ITV beat the BBC or does he mean he likes a couple of American and Scandinavian series and is extrapolating wildly from those?
'For a few moments someone may have thought IDS was competent, the odds were always long.'
Just like people thinking that Brown,Balls & Darling were competent.
The Prime Minister says as a country we should start saying "no" to eastern European immigrants who take British jobs
Best UK historical drama at the moment? Probably Downtown Abbey - ITV.
And if you think that the BBC is good on (real) comedy, you're having a larf.
Whinging right wingers` judgements of impartiality do not count.
The reason the Labour share is so stubborn is that it's almost entirely composed of people who already said they preferred Labour to Cameron plus LibDems who came over almost instantly when the Tory-LibDem coalition was announced. Both groups are extremely resistant to Tory blandishments, despite best Tory efforts to suggest that in retrospect Brown was a splendid electoral asset sadly unavailable to Miliband.
Topping: you say UKIP 3-5% tops. They got 3% last time, almost certainly with far fewer candidates. Are you saying you expect them to do worse?
:utter-silence:
There's no need for any subjective argument about this, there are multiple objective tests which could be applied, as I've pointed out before. But the BBC just reply to anyone asking for these objective tests by saying there's no need because they are wonderfully impartial.
1) London to Manchester is about 2hr 10 minutes. Removing 25 minutes off this - essentially 20% - from software alone is a high bar to jump, and does not match my (inexpert) understanding of the signalling system.
2) Under the £9-10 billion WCML upgrade, Ratiltrack and later Network Rail spent £250 million trying to develop a moving block signalling system, and failed (1). They'll be kicking themselves if they could have got better benefits for £30,000.
3) It would cost more than £30,000 to get any change past the authorities. Railway safety is very highly regulated, and any changes have to be carefully checked to see how they affect other parts of the system.
4) The Tesla story smells suspicious. Tesla would have had to test that change a great deal in actual hardware, unless they already had developed the capability as an option. If the story's true, avoid Tesla cars.
Unless he's thinking of slowing down all the clocks on the trains... ;-)
(1): P. 32 of http://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2006/11/060722.pdf
We have a far more volatile, de-aligned electorate than perhaps ever before.
Ask me in 12 months time. If this coherent ideological block is as you claim it is, then Labour will still be polling around 38% irrespective of the performance of the economy etc. Hmmm. Right!
John Rentoul @JohnRentoul 51s
"If you don’t have a coalition between parties you tend to get one within the party." Blair on coalition http://www.qmul.ac.uk/media/news/items/hss/115787.html …
Where I agree slightly with you is the Beeb was more left wing vis a vis Immigration and Europe till a few years ago but they have since corrected that.
When the government floats imaginary theories about health and benefit tourists from Europe,one expects the Beeb to investigate and tell us the truth.No surprise the government didn`t like it.
Whether in the Netherlands or Lewisham (and no-one would go and live in Bedford; have you seen the neighbours) immigration per-se is not the answer. What is needed is to reform UK benefits: Some bloke called ^w(3)d(4)$ might help you understand that OG....
It's widely known that having Susannah Reid perched on the BBC sofa three days a week justifies the licence fee regardless of all other programming.
And your evidence that we are wrong is what, exactly?
As I said the other day: why do the BBC think they are immune to the pressures that other media such as newspapers suffer?
(Yet again I have to say I like the BBC, and I don't mind paying the licence fee. I just cannot see how that funding modem can survive long-term).
Can you imagine the BBC making GoT ? Breaking Bad ? The Wire ? Lost ?
Spooks and Dr Who are the only BBC dramas that have done eff all globally in recent years.
My central premise remains, as you note, UKIP is not where the battle will be fought.
Well, here's one piece of evidence:
http://www.thecommentator.com/userfiles/files/bg.pdf
But what I really want is a survey of the staff. It beggars belief that they monitor ethnic and gender balance but not the most important parameter of all for a news organisation - political balance.
I do think UKIP will considerably increase their vote, but I don't think standing more candidates will be a big factor in that.
Edit: 558 UKIP candidates, compared to 631 for Labour and Lib Dems (ie all excluding Northern Ireland and Speaker).
Interesting. I wonder if the tories see scrapping the license fee as one rather easy way to take the pressure off the squeezed middle.
To only attract 3% from an unpopular (allegedly) cost cutting governing party is pathetic. Labour should be in a darkened room asking why they are failing so abominably.
I remember the saddos on HYS [many years back] proclaiming that Al-Beeb successes included:
- The Simpsons
- X-Files, and
- 24
.That really Foxed me; well, until they acclaimed "Heroes" as an exemplar. How 'SyFy' is that?
Yes, Al-Beeb, total comedy....
There's been a 3% movement from 2010 Con to Lab which Mike has identified above.
But 3% of Lab's 2010 vote is planning to vote Con?
Oh.....because it is:
http://www.thecommentator.com/article/3458/exclusive_bbc_bias_exposed_as_newspaper_purchases_reveals_continued_guardian_bias
However, as I said, it's not the main issue - the main issue is the staff. Odd, isn't it, that no-one (except, to his credit, Southam Observer) amongst on those on the left who deny the bias ever seems to want it to be checked out.
But then, I suppose that's consistent with wanting constituency boundaries to be biased towards Labour as well. The harder it is for the Tories to get fair media coverage and fair boundaries, the better, eh?
Yes we can have foreign workers coming in but only if they promise to be in work, claim no benefits and go home when they are 65...
Why does a work permit have to equal lifelong citizenship ?
The point about that sort of bet is that the horse could just as easily come last as first; an in-between run is unlikely. I thought it was fine performance. It traded as low as 2.5 in running. The winner is no slouch and we can confidently expect to see King Shabra featuring prominnetly in this year's staying handicap hurdles - but I doubt we'll see 20/1 again!
I did however do the ew double, so eyes down for the 3.45!
And your solution is... What exactly? Perhaps the government could instead make raising kids cheaper but... Hang on... They've made it more expensive!
In my view, ‘bias’ is too blunt a word to describe the subtleties of the pervading culture. The better word is a ‘mindset’. At the core of the BBC, in its very DNA, is a way of thinking that is firmly of the Left.
By far the most popular and widely read newspapers at the BBC are The Guardian and The Independent. Producers refer to them routinely for the line to take on running stories, and for inspiration on which items to cover. In the later stages of my career, I lost count of the number of times I asked a producer for a brief on a story, only to be handed a copy of The Guardian and told ‘it’s all in there’.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1349506/Left-wing-bias-Its-written-BBCs-DNA-says-Peter-Sissons.html#ixzz2j1mP0Re4
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook
Yet again how the world of business operates passes you by...
Ofgem pointed out that wholesale costs were now rising for this current winter - by 8% for gas and 13% for electricity.
I know it's a hopeless case, but I do despair when articles like that say: "The so-called big six companies collectively made profits of £3.7bn in 2012", without making even a token attempt to explore whether that is higher than you'd expect. (It isn't, BTW - If you look at the figures, there is no way on this earth that anyone could claim the companies are making excess profits.)
I agree that constituency boundaries should not be biased towards either Labour or the Conservatives who at the last election got 47% of the seats for only 37% of the vote .
If the tories put scrapping the license fee into the manifesto, proposing to relieve the overburdened squeezed voter of at least one fixed compulsory cost, would it be popular or not? Or is that one bill the poor squeezed middle is content to keep paying? Isn't that what Shapps was trying to find out?
The biggest ratings BBC2 has got in years is Great British Bake Off FFS.
When I watch Twitter comments - its all about XFactor, BGT, Dowton Abbey - they are on ITV.
It reminds me of the NHS - we're forever being told its amazing but when you experience life elsewhere, the scales fall from ones eyes.
So, do you support my suggestion that this whole argument should be put to rest by the BBC getting an independent survey done on the political balance of their news and current affairs staff?
Number of Con seats won by Lab if a given percentage of LD voters switch to Lab with the Con vote remaining the same as 2010:
5%: 8
10%: 9
15%: 18
20%: 25
25%: 28
30%: 33
35%: 39
40%: 46
45%: 52
50%: 57
55%: 61
60%: 64
65%: 67
70%: 71
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dE0wZTMyZW1nYko1TE15MDVJVF8zYXc#gid=0
Mark Sloan, who has starred in a number of X-rated films including Tight Rider and Sherlock Bones, was cast as one of the friends who dined with Kate and Gerry McCann on the night Madeleine went missing.
Sloan, 44, who has taken part in previous Crimewatch reconstructions, said that working in the porn industry had helped to improve his acting.
http://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/tv/news/bbc-criticised-for-casting-porn-star-in-madeleine-mccann-crimewatch-reconstruction-8908816.html
Just lie back and think of Susanna
Financially it could make a large difference to UKIP. Lost deposits will have cost them more than £200,000 last time.
Since Galloway's victory in the Bradford West by-election, UKIP have lost one deposit [Manchester Central], but the Lib Dems have lost three [Croydon North, Rotherham and South Shields].
QED.
Matthew Taylor, who was Labour’s director of policy during the 1997 election campaign, said improving education standards was “absolutely central” to the future of Wales and parents, employers and voluntary groups had to come together to play key roles in making this a reality.
Stressing that improving education is the “business of the whole of Wales,” he said he wanted to see top-performing schools both helping and starting other schools. He is concerned that efforts to turn around pupil performance have focused on the roles of central and local government.
Mr Taylor, who was Mr Blair’s chief adviser on political strategy and is now chief executive of the RSA, said: “Nobody, surely, seriously believes that Wales has got a long-term successful future unless it can transform the quality of education that is going on.
"And we should surely be enraged that as we speak hundreds of thousands of children are not getting the education they need, which is going to enable them to live their lives fully and to have an opportunity to change the course of their life in positive kinds of ways...
“Surely, surely, we need to see improving schools as being absolutely central to what we have to do for Wales to be successful.”
http://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/nobody-seriously-believes-wales-long-term-6246250
Turnout 79.7%
Südtiroler Volkspartei 45.7% (48.1% in 2008)
Die Freiheitlichen 17.9% (14.3)
Greens 8.7% (5.8)
Süd-Tiroler Freiheit 7.2% (4.9)
PD 6.7% (6)
Forza Alto Adige - Lega Nord 2.5% (8.3 PDL+2.1 Lega)
5 Stars 2.5%
Ladins Dolomites 2.1% (1.1)
L’Alto Adige nel cuore 2.1%
Unitalia Movimento per l’Alto Adige 1.7%
Civic Choice 1.6% (UDC 1.2)
The Right 0.6%
Communist Refoundation 0.4% (0.7)
Südtirolish Communists 0.3% (0.4)
As it's pure PR...seats
SVP 17 (-1)
Freiheitlichen 6 (+1)
Greens 3 (+1)
Süd-Tiroler Freiheit 3 (+1)
PD 2(=)
Forza Alto Adige - Lega 1 (-3)
5 Stars 1
Ladins 1 (+1)
Alto Adige nel Cuore 1
Trento provincial elections...
523 polling stations reported out of 528
Candidates for presidency
Center-Left candidate (PD-PATT-UPT) 58.15%
Independent/Local lists 19.22%
Lega 6.59%
5 Stars 5.72%
Berlusconi's Forza Trentino 4.28%
SEL (Left) 1.78%
Brothers of Italy (right) 1.54%
Communists 1.14%
3 other candidates below 1%
Likewise, if people come here to work, and have a birth-rate nearer to replacement rate (2.1) than the indigenous population, then it also clearly doesn't worsen the situation.
That said, the most important issue is to accept that as - since 1840 - life expectancy has been rising at between three and four months a year, every year. We therefore need to move the retirement and pension age up at that rate. We also need to introduce - as in Australia - compulsory saving.