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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf on a windy day and LAB still struggling to win CON con

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  • MikeL said:

    ComRes phone poll coming out at 10pm with big changes

    Laat month it was CON 32 LAB 37 LD 11 UKIP 11

    Last month it was 33/37/11/11 (per UKPR)
    ....and there was a Sunday Com Res showing 32/35/9/16 earlier this month.
    That Indy on Sunday ComRes poll was an online poll, tonight's is a phone poll.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited October 2013
    A view on Populus:

    POPULUS POLL 25-27th OCTOBER
    New Populus Voting Intention figures: Lab 38 (-1); Cons 33 (-1); LD 12 (+1); UKIP 9 (-1); Oth 7 (-1)

    Doesn't make any sense. 4 parties have all lost a percentage point and the Lib Dems have gained 1. Am I missing something? It means the last figures added up to 102 and these add up to 99.

    Don't even start me on the weighting. They have at least upped UKIP from 20 to 21 only means they have thrown away 164 respondents views.
    (From General Election 2015)
  • corporeal said:

    corporeal said:

    GeoffM said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Who was the only PM was born outside the UK?

    Bonar Law, Canada.

    and Wellington, he was born in Ireland when it was not yet part of the UK.

    Who was the only Prime Minister born in Wales?
    Lloyd George
    Nah, he was born in England, the only Welsh Prime Minister is Julia Gillard.
    Lloyd George wasn't born in Wales but we count him as Welsh (a much better claim than say half the England cricket team have). Only British PM to learn English as a second language.
    Ooops, I stand corrected.
  • corporeal said:

    corporeal said:

    GeoffM said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Who was the only PM was born outside the UK?

    Bonar Law, Canada.

    and Wellington, he was born in Ireland when it was not yet part of the UK.

    Who was the only Prime Minister born in Wales?
    Lloyd George
    Nah, he was born in England, the only Welsh Prime Minister is Julia Gillard.
    Lloyd George wasn't born in Wales but we count him as Welsh (a much better claim than say half the England cricket team have). Only British PM to learn English as a second language.
    Bah, all the English cricket team have excellent links to England.

    Unlike the Welsh Rugby team under Graham Henry.

    What was the anthem when he was in charge?

    Land not quite of my fathers?
    Think Welsh Longbows at Agincourt - and Henry Tudor.
  • MikeK said:

    A view on Populus:

    POPULUS POLL 25-27th OCTOBER
    New Populus Voting Intention figures: Lab 38 (-1); Cons 33 (-1); LD 12 (+1); UKIP 9 (-1); Oth 7 (-1)

    Doesn't make any sense. 4 parties have all lost a percentage point and the Lib Dems have gained 1. Am I missing something? It means the last figures added up to 102 and these add up to 99.

    Don't even start me on the weighting. They have at least upped UKIP from 20 to 21 only means they have thrown away 164 respondents views.
    (From General Election 2015)

    Most polls don't add up to 100, because of roundings.
  • compouter1compouter1 Posts: 642
    edited October 2013

    MikeL said:

    ComRes phone poll coming out at 10pm with big changes

    Laat month it was CON 32 LAB 37 LD 11 UKIP 11

    Last month it was 33/37/11/11 (per UKPR)
    ....and there was a Sunday Com Res showing 32/35/9/16 earlier this month.
    That Indy on Sunday ComRes poll was an online poll, tonight's is a phone poll.
    Ohh isn't this exciting. Only seven minutes to go. Tories 2% ahead in the much anticipated poll, though we fought a fantastic campaign and our candidate did a brilliant job.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    A ridiculous spat between myself and a poster called The Results has been taking place on UKPR, if anyone wants to be amused for a few seconds.
  • MikeL said:

    ComRes phone poll coming out at 10pm with big changes

    Laat month it was CON 32 LAB 37 LD 11 UKIP 11

    Last month it was 33/37/11/11 (per UKPR)
    ....and there was a Sunday Com Res showing 32/35/9/16 earlier this month.
    That Indy on Sunday ComRes poll was an online poll, tonight's is a phone poll.
    Ohh isn't this exciting. Only seven minutes to go. Tories 2% ahead, though we fought a fantastic campaign and our candidate did a brilliant job.
    I've seen the poll and I can tell you it shows.....sorry you're going to have wait until 10pm.

    I have to respect the embargo and Mike will shout at me if I break it.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Has the SNP promised to disband if Scotland votes Yes to independence?
  • Tories 3% ahead........oooooooohhhhh!!!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    It's 10pm and seemingly no news on the ComRes poll...
  • New thread
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    Charles said:


    It wasn't meant to be a criticism of them - I do think there is likely to be an unconscious bias from the make-up of the employee bias. The other element, I think, which demonstrates a bias is the desire (I think I recall a spectator article about it) is the search for someone to say controversial things on the right. this means that 2 right vs 2 left often becomes 1 Tory, vs 2 Labour vs 1 "right winger" (e.g. UKIP, or Peter Hitchens, or Simon Heffer) that are often very much not Tories.

    It was more the fact that all their coverage could be called into question. How could they get around that issue?

    You're on to a pattern there - as a Labour MP I was frustrated by the frequency that someone like Clare Short or even George Galloway would be put on to be one of the "left" participants. I think the thing is that they aim for a broad left-right balance but like to have colour, which means dissent, and dissent is usually more noticeable on the government side, since that's where it's actually worth revolting since it may change policy.

    So rather than a long-term political bias, it's perhaps a journalistic bias, for livelier debates at the expense of fair treatment of both main parties.

This discussion has been closed.