politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB/Polling Matters podcast: Is a Tory landslide inevitable? An
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Putting the Con and Lab movements to one side - surely the LD and UKIP movements in this poll are very hard to believe.
UKIP up - when all the narrative is of UKIP falling and they've had a poor news cycle as well over the last couple of days.
LD down - when surely the LDs should be gaining during the campaign with increased publicity etc.
If UKIP and LD movements are wrong then every chance Con and Lab may be wrong too.
Also note that the recent Survation 11% lead had an unusually high UKIP figure.0 -
Concerns over some students' unions' support for a boycott of Israel are being looked into by the Charity Commission, the BBC has learned.
Seventeen student bodies have endorsed the BDS movement - which calls for an international boycott of Israel over the way it treats Palestinians.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-397193140 -
Perhaps the previous YouGov poll had UKIP too low.MikeL said:Putting the Con and Lab movements to one side - surely the LD and UKIP movements in this poll are very hard to believe.
UKIP up - when all the narrative is of UKIP falling and they've had a poor news cycle as well over the last couple of days.
LD down - when surely the LDs should be gaining during the campaign with increased publicity etc.
If UKIP and LD movements are wrong then every chance Con and Lab may be wrong too.
Also note that the recent Survation 11% lead had an unusually high UKIP figure.0 -
How many of these will result in prosecutions? And in how many of these prosecutions will a jury find there was intent? Very, very few is my assessment.TheScreamingEagles said:Mike's had a pretty good take on the expenses scandal.
Back in December, when the focus was on Thanet South, he wrote
"PB sources have also reported concern within the Tory HQ about other seats."
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/12/08/guido-says-the-tories-are-bracing-themselves-for-charges-over-thanet-south/
Before Mrs May called the election, he did a piece where his sources told him that the Crosby polling in the South West marginals was to do with worries over expense charges.
Which even Alex Salmond picked up on citing Mike
http://tinyurl.com/HannibalsSuchALoser
And yet it is routinely talked of on here as a massive scandal that was going to bring down the Government's majority.0 -
The Leave campaign did at least try to address this a little. But the Remain campaign, not only did they decline to advocate the European federation that is the end game for the EU, they denied that such a thing even was the end game.Peter_the_Punter said:
Just caught this on my way to bed, and yes, I agree.Disraeli said:I can see PtP's point and mostly I agree with it. I'm happy to let the government decide on, say, the building of a major new motorway, or making a deal with a foreign government. Where the people HAVE to make the decision is in questions of who governs them.
Who I trust to govern me is a key factor in shaping my sense of the community that I belong to.
Thus, the Scottish people have to be the ones to decide if they remain part of the UK or opt for independence - NOT the Scottish parliament.
The people of Gibraltar have to decide whether they remain attached to the UK under the present constitutional arrangements, or join Spain.
And the people of the UK have to decide if they see their future as part of some sort of European Federation or not. (So that nobody gets wound up by this particular example, let me say that it is fair comment for any individual to prefer this option, just as it is understandable that other people will have reasons for preferring the opposite).
Had the referendum been framed broadly in those terms, it would have been a lot more honest and the result far more authoritative.
Nite everybody.
The reason they did so is obvious, of course.
Night all.0 -
If only the Unionists would stop banging on about Indyref2;
https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/857351074319138816
https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/8573493588152401920 -
@CarlottaVance here's hoping for some Unionist tactical voting in June!0
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Good. With a bit of luck very long grass beckons.....
Britain will be bound by European human rights laws for another five years with the Conservatives expected to abandon a pledge to withdraw the UK from the ECHR.
Theresa May is expected to make no mention in the Tory election manifesto of pulling out of the European Convention on Human Rights.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/26/britain-likely-bound-european-convention-human-rights-2022/
Cue lots of confusion over ECJ vs ECHR.....0 -
I am going to stick my neck out on this one and say that they are calling this one wrong. While much publicity has been given to those many remainers who feel so strongly that they want to see another EU Referendum and the decision unturned, there are also many who have accepted the decision and have got behind team UKplc. For starters, the economic picture in the UK continues to outperform expectations, and no Brit likes the EU trying to brow beat the UK with the kind of threats we have been hearing. Especially when we have been paying through the nose to be a member of this organisation that has been taking away our sovereignty by stealth.Scott_P said:
The tone of the rhetoric coming out of the EU is bound to see a fair few Remain voters now getting behind a Government prepared to stand up to the EU and get the best deal for UKplc. Lets face it, for many Remain voters like myself, there was always still a strong element of Eurosceptimism at the lack of democracy and often unfairness in some of the rules within this organisation. I am not one of Theresa May's biggest fans, and spotted early on that she and her inner circle were more Brown than Cameron/Blair when it came to holding on to petty grudges and then settling them at a later date despite a longer term political cost to the wider party. Lets face it, who would you prefer to be running the Foreign Office or Brexit negociations right now, Boris Johnson and David Davis or George Osborne and Michael Gove?
But Theresa May played a blinder when she announced this snap GE on the back of the intransigence of the Libdems, SNP, pockets of the Labour party and the House of Lords threatening to undermine and disrupt the UK's bargaining position. I would have loved to have been a fly on the wall in Bute House when May called the Sturgeon's bluff and upped her demand and claim of a mandate for another Independence Referendum on the back of the Brexit result with a GE to give her a stronger mandate on both fronts.
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What is the SNP's EU policy?
http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/796949/nicola-sturgeon-scotland-needs-democratic-mandate-rejoin-EU
So, after SindyRef2 EURef2 (and 3 & 4, if Scots give the wrong answer...)?0 -
Maybe the previous one was slightly too Brexity. I am always a bit worried about converts. You know what they say about the zeal of the convert.Pulpstar said:
2 million voters don't change their mind about who the best PM is in a week (-6% May). This is clearly just a slightly left leaning/pro remain sample !TheScreamingEagles said:The trend is your friend
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/857370248621772800
The Remainer to Leaver convert.
N.B. Buyers remorse. Retail Prices.0 -
Tory - Independent - Tory. Depends on the season, I suppose.rcs1000 said:
I'm looking forward to Zac's campaign:fitalass said:
You are joking, seriously what were they thinking?!AndyJS said:Zac confirmed as Richmond Park candidate.
"Hi, my name is Zac and I'm opposed to Heathrow expansion. I realise my party is in favour, but rest assured, if the decision is taken to go forward with its expansion, then I'll resign. Again."0 -
Without a convincing economic plan, support for independence is likely to remain low. The problem for the pro-independence campaign is that formulating such a plan is even harder now than it was in 2014. In addition, there are now a number of new factors which both exacerbate preexisting concerns while creating new ones.
If the economic, constitutional, and electoral problems are so manifold, the question then is — why now? The SNP’s problem is that legislating a referendum requires a majority in the Scottish parliament, and the trends suggest they might not have this for long. While the SNP won an outright majority in 2011, it lost it in 2016, and now relies upon the Scottish Greens to pass its legislative program. The general election will provide a useful bellwether on support for the SNP and its cause. If support continues to drop, it is possible that by the 2021 Scottish parliamentary elections — by which time the SNP will have been in government for 14 years — the SNP will not be able to push the legislation required for a referendum. In such a scenario, independence could be off the table for another generation.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/04/26/scotlands-leaders-want-another-independence-referendum-scottish-voters-dont/?utm_term=.5c3e778a0d67
And this time 'a generation' would mean 'a generation'
Added to this - if Scotland sees a similar demographic shift as Wales, independence could be off the table for a very long time.0 -
I'm astonished that he is the PPC. Glad McVey for the nod in Tatton though!surbiton said:
Tory - Independent - Tory. Depends on the season, I suppose.rcs1000 said:
I'm looking forward to Zac's campaign:fitalass said:
You are joking, seriously what were they thinking?!AndyJS said:Zac confirmed as Richmond Park candidate.
"Hi, my name is Zac and I'm opposed to Heathrow expansion. I realise my party is in favour, but rest assured, if the decision is taken to go forward with its expansion, then I'll resign. Again."0 -
Same here. I hope the local party know what they're doing.......RobD said:
I'm astonished that he is the PPC. Glad McVey for the nod in Tatton though!surbiton said:
Tory - Independent - Tory. Depends on the season, I suppose.rcs1000 said:
I'm looking forward to Zac's campaign:fitalass said:
You are joking, seriously what were they thinking?!AndyJS said:Zac confirmed as Richmond Park candidate.
"Hi, my name is Zac and I'm opposed to Heathrow expansion. I realise my party is in favour, but rest assured, if the decision is taken to go forward with its expansion, then I'll resign. Again."0 -
for the nod = got the nod. I'm not drunk, honest
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The article states the Tories might lose their last seat in Scotland. Clearly we need to get an upgraded KlaxonCarlottaVance said:Without a convincing economic plan, support for independence is likely to remain low. The problem for the pro-independence campaign is that formulating such a plan is even harder now than it was in 2014. In addition, there are now a number of new factors which both exacerbate preexisting concerns while creating new ones.
If the economic, constitutional, and electoral problems are so manifold, the question then is — why now? The SNP’s problem is that legislating a referendum requires a majority in the Scottish parliament, and the trends suggest they might not have this for long. While the SNP won an outright majority in 2011, it lost it in 2016, and now relies upon the Scottish Greens to pass its legislative program. The general election will provide a useful bellwether on support for the SNP and its cause. If support continues to drop, it is possible that by the 2021 Scottish parliamentary elections — by which time the SNP will have been in government for 14 years — the SNP will not be able to push the legislation required for a referendum. In such a scenario, independence could be off the table for another generation.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/04/26/scotlands-leaders-want-another-independence-referendum-scottish-voters-dont/?utm_term=.5c3e778a0d67
And this time 'a generation' would mean 'a generation'
Added to this - if Scotland sees a similar demographic shift as Wales, independence could be off the table for a very long time.
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I believe Starmer's speech - indeed, his persona - had a lot to do with it. A Remainer "coalition" is slowly forming. They are not thinking that we can be back in the EU but are certainly up for a soft Brexit which will keep a lot of the single market. I think Starmer's point about the customs union will be attractive to business and will slowly percolate about job security.Wulfrun_Phil said:
We'll see indeed. I'll be interested to see the crossbreaks of the YouGov poll in terms of whether Labour has started to claw back any of the party's 2015 Leave supporters. The poll was taken on the back of Starmer's speech, which gave a more coherent Labour position on Brexit including quite a bit of reporting that Labour had moved its position away from free movement. There's room for a bit of underlying movement in a 7 point net change even if the rest of the change is just an outlier.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The figures tonight are in contrast with the other polls today including Theresa May the most popular Pm even above Thatcher. It does look to be out of the trend but we will just have to seekle4 said:
How?! Seriously, I'm not even a fan of May, and unlike others I've said Corbyn can appear genial, even authoritative and soothing at times, and I find it hard to fathom how so many people are 'not sure' on that question. One just looks and feels like a pm, the other...does not.TheScreamingEagles said:The trend is your friend
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/857370248621772800
Night.
Grim news emanating from the City almost daily is not helping either. Some of my friends, all on minimum six-figures, are nervous. Two working with foreign banks are convinced that either they will have to move to Europe or find some other job.0 -
Grim news almost daily? Have the Four Horsemen finally been spotted?0
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Huh ? I thought they were going to win 20 seats!RobD said:
The article states the Tories might lose their last seat in Scotland. Clearly we need to get an upgraded KlaxonCarlottaVance said:Without a convincing economic plan, support for independence is likely to remain low. The problem for the pro-independence campaign is that formulating such a plan is even harder now than it was in 2014. In addition, there are now a number of new factors which both exacerbate preexisting concerns while creating new ones.
If the economic, constitutional, and electoral problems are so manifold, the question then is — why now? The SNP’s problem is that legislating a referendum requires a majority in the Scottish parliament, and the trends suggest they might not have this for long. While the SNP won an outright majority in 2011, it lost it in 2016, and now relies upon the Scottish Greens to pass its legislative program. The general election will provide a useful bellwether on support for the SNP and its cause. If support continues to drop, it is possible that by the 2021 Scottish parliamentary elections — by which time the SNP will have been in government for 14 years — the SNP will not be able to push the legislation required for a referendum. In such a scenario, independence could be off the table for another generation.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/04/26/scotlands-leaders-want-another-independence-referendum-scottish-voters-dont/?utm_term=.5c3e778a0d67
And this time 'a generation' would mean 'a generation'
Added to this - if Scotland sees a similar demographic shift as Wales, independence could be off the table for a very long time.0 -
It's an American paper... what do you expectsurbiton said:
Huh ? I thought they were going to win 20 seats!RobD said:
The article states the Tories might lose their last seat in Scotland. Clearly we need to get an upgraded KlaxonCarlottaVance said:Without a convincing economic plan, support for independence is likely to remain low. The problem for the pro-independence campaign is that formulating such a plan is even harder now than it was in 2014. In addition, there are now a number of new factors which both exacerbate preexisting concerns while creating new ones.
If the economic, constitutional, and electoral problems are so manifold, the question then is — why now? The SNP’s problem is that legislating a referendum requires a majority in the Scottish parliament, and the trends suggest they might not have this for long. While the SNP won an outright majority in 2011, it lost it in 2016, and now relies upon the Scottish Greens to pass its legislative program. The general election will provide a useful bellwether on support for the SNP and its cause. If support continues to drop, it is possible that by the 2021 Scottish parliamentary elections — by which time the SNP will have been in government for 14 years — the SNP will not be able to push the legislation required for a referendum. In such a scenario, independence could be off the table for another generation.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2017/04/26/scotlands-leaders-want-another-independence-referendum-scottish-voters-dont/?utm_term=.5c3e778a0d67
And this time 'a generation' would mean 'a generation'
Added to this - if Scotland sees a similar demographic shift as Wales, independence could be off the table for a very long time.
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She is incredibly wooden. In fact, when she portrays synthetic anger, she looks completely out of depth.peter_from_putney said:Theresa May was REALLY, REALLY weak at PMQs today on the Triple Lock question, an obvious one for her to be asked about and one she should have coped with 100% competently. In that regard she's hopelessly behind Cameron.
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Fascinating look at how photographs are (not) being used by Team Trump:
https://www.cjr.org/covering_trump/trump-photography.php0 -
The bottom line is that despite polls giving her a good approval rating, May is actually wooden, uncomfortable and almost waspish in interview, perhaps we have become used to the slick Cameron/Blair act, but May is not smooth on camera - it'll be interesting if it marks a change in political appeal, away from the coiffured slickness of yesterday and into a more "human" (ie more personality-driven) approach, fortunately JC aint exactly a male model so its hard to see if it marks a changesurbiton said:
She is incredibly wooden. In fact, when she portrays synthetic anger, she looks completely out of depth.peter_from_putney said:Theresa May was REALLY, REALLY weak at PMQs today on the Triple Lock question, an obvious one for her to be asked about and one she should have coped with 100% competently. In that regard she's hopelessly behind Cameron.
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Interesting - honesty - a brave new politician, or an inexperienced one?
Confronted by mechanics angry that their factory will be closed next year as production moves to Poland, Macron said: 'I'm not telling you that I'm going to save your jobs, because nobody can do it.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4447882/Le-Pen-upstages-French-rival-Macron-factory-visit.html0 -
Astrology is regarded as a pukka "science" in India, I kid you notrcs1000 said:
But astrology is not. Nor is remote healing. Nor homeopathy. Tredinnick is a fraud or an idiot. Whichever it is, he shouldn't be an elected official.0 -
I think many of us are as intelligent and well-informed as the people we elect.Peter_the_Punter said:
Well I'm sure nobody is offended, Big G, because it's clear that I mean when it comes to complicated matters of policy, international affairs, economics and the like, most people (including myself) are pretty ill-informed and not very well qualified to make a judgement. No, of course I'm not saying they're idiots in the sense of being generally stupid. That would be unpleasant as well as plainly wrong. But in relation to the kind of sophistication you need to make a decent call on matters like Remain/Leave, yes we're mostly desperately lacking and in that sense, a bunch idiots. Isn't that why we appoint representatives to make decisions on our behalf?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I accept that is your view but to label a majority idiots is just unacceptable. Everyone is entitled to a view without being called an idiotPeter_the_Punter said:(Big G: I do not understand your reference to idiots.)
Most people who voted in the referendum didn't have the faintest idea what they were voting for or against - and that is true of both sides, although I suppose you could just about say that Remainers had a slightly better idea if only because we were actually in the EU already. Even on a fairly intellectual site like this the level of understanding was fairly shallow. I'm as good an example as any. I've followed politics all my life and even written about it, but even I didn't think about what leaving might mean for, say, Gibraltar, or Scottish Independence, or the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic. So on voting day I took a reluctant stab at getting the answer right. I would have preferred to vote 'Remain, but.....'. It wasn't an option. Nor was 'Leave, but....' So, I did my best, and voted in accordance with the nearest approximation to my best judgement.
S
The politicians who led us into our current situation shirked their responsibilities. Those who perceive their task now as merely to find some sort of majority are continuing in the same irresponsible vein.
Is that clear now, Big G? Hope so. I need some sleep.
Anyway the substantive point was to explain why I didn't think 'suiting a majority' should be regarded as some sort of laudable objective, or at least not in the matter under discussion.
Thanks for your patience in reading what I wrote, and responding civily.0 -
Humourless wooden Mrs May:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4447230/Davis-insists-election-NOT-slow-Brexit-work.html0 -
Surely the problem is that however intelligent someone might be, they cannot be well-informed about every topic.Sean_F said:
I think many of us are as intelligent and well-informed as the people we elect.Peter_the_Punter said:
Well I'm sure nobody is offended, Big G, because it's clear that I mean when it comes to complicated matters of policy, international affairs, economics and the like, most people (including myself) are pretty ill-informed and not very well qualified to make a judgement. No, of course I'm not saying they're idiots in the sense of being generally stupid. That would be unpleasant as well as plainly wrong. But in relation to the kind of sophistication you need to make a decent call on matters like Remain/Leave, yes we're mostly desperately lacking and in that sense, a bunch idiots. Isn't that why we appoint representatives to make decisions on our behalf?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I accept that is your view but to label a majority idiots is just unacceptable. Everyone is entitled to a view without being called an idiotPeter_the_Punter said:(Big G: I do not understand your reference to idiots.)
Most people who voted in the referendum didn't have the faintest idea what they were voting for or against - and that is true of both sides, although I suppose you could just about say that Remainers had a slightly better idea if only because we were actually in the EU already. Even on a fairly intellectual site like this the level of understanding was fairly shallow. I'm as good an example as any. I've followed politics all my life and even written about it, but even I didn't think about what leaving might mean for, say, Gibraltar, or Scottish Independence, or the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic. So on voting day I took a reluctant stab at getting the answer right. I would have preferred to vote 'Remain, but.....'. It wasn't an option. Nor was 'Leave, but....' So, I did my best, and voted in accordance with the nearest approximation to my best judgement.
S
The politicians who led us into our current situation shirked their responsibilities. Those who perceive their task now as merely to find some sort of majority are continuing in the same irresponsible vein.
Is that clear now, Big G? Hope so. I need some sleep.
Anyway the substantive point was to explain why I didn't think 'suiting a majority' should be regarded as some sort of laudable objective, or at least not in the matter under discussion.
Thanks for your patience in reading what I wrote, and responding civily.
In fact, a big issue seems to be that many people think that, because they have good knowledge of one area, their views and opinions on another unrelated area must be correct.0 -
I think that's correct. But, politics isn't like brain surgery or quantum physics, where you really do have to trust the experts, and hope they get it right. You don't need any particular qualification to get elected, nor is the average voter incompetent to decide great political questions.JosiasJessop said:
Surely the problem is that however intelligent someone might be, they cannot be well-informed about every topic.Sean_F said:
I think many of us are as intelligent and well-informed as the people we elect.Peter_the_Punter said:
Well I'm sure nobody is offended, Big G, because it's clear that I mean when it comes to complicated matters of policy, international affairs, economics and the like, most people (including myself) are pretty ill-informed and not very well qualified to make a judgement. No, of course I'm not saying they're idiots in the sense of being generally stupid. That would be unpleasant as well as plainly wrong. But in relation to the kind of sophistication you need to make a decent call on matters like Remain/Leave, yes we're mostly desperately lacking and in that sense, a bunch idiots. Isn't that why we appoint representatives to make decisions on our behalf?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I accept that is your view but to label a majority idiots is just unacceptable. Everyone is entitled to a view without being called an idiotPeter_the_Punter said:(Big G: I do not understand your reference to idiots.)
Most people who voted in the referendum didn't have the faintest idea what they were voting for or against -
S
The politicians who led us into our current situation shirked their responsibilities. Those who perceive their task now as merely to find some sort of majority are continuing in the same irresponsible vein.
Is that clear now, Big G? Hope so. I need some sleep.
Anyway the substantive point was to explain why I didn't think 'suiting a majority' should be regarded as some sort of laudable objective, or at least not in the matter under discussion.
Thanks for your patience in reading what I wrote, and responding civily.
In fact, a big issue seems to be that many people think that, because they have good knowledge of one area, their views and opinions on another unrelated area must be correct.0 -
swing_voter said:
The bottom line is that despite polls giving her a good approval rating, May is actually wooden, uncomfortable and almost waspish in interview, perhaps we have become used to the slick Cameron/Blair act, but May is not smooth on camera - it'll be interesting if it marks a change in political appeal, away from the coiffured slickness of yesterday and into a more "human" (ie more personality-driven) approach, fortunately JC aint exactly a male model so its hard to see if it marks a changesurbiton said:
She is incredibly wooden. In fact, when she portrays synthetic anger, she looks completely out of depth.peter_from_putney said:Theresa May was REALLY, REALLY weak at PMQs today on the Triple Lock question, an obvious one for her to be asked about and one she should have coped with 100% competently. In that regard she's hopelessly behind Cameron.
I think one of Mrs May's attractions is :
she is not David Cameron who enjoyed the limelight and was relaxed in it.
she is not Ed Miliband who appeared lost in the limelight
she is not Gordon Brown who was pugnacious in the limelight
and she is not J Corbyn who sounds like a rerun of Citizen Smith but with ham acting.
She appears human, down to earth and disinclined to grab airtime just for a soundbite (She may not be of course, but that is how she appears to me)
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Imagine May actually engaging with voters in that way. She couldn't and wouldn't. The Facebook clip is well worth watching. Macron has got something about him.CarlottaVance said:Interesting - honesty - a brave new politician, or an inexperienced one?
Confronted by mechanics angry that their factory will be closed next year as production moves to Poland, Macron said: 'I'm not telling you that I'm going to save your jobs, because nobody can do it.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4447882/Le-Pen-upstages-French-rival-Macron-factory-visit.html
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Re the Yougov poll, I expect this is far closer to where we'll finish than some of the silly leads we've been seeing. That would see the Conservatives finishing level in Wales (still a historic achievement) rather than 10% ahead, which is unbelievable.0
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"nor is the average voter incompetent to decide great political questions"Sean_F said:
I think that's correct. But, politics isn't like brain surgery or quantum physics, where you really do have to trust the experts, and hope they get it right. You don't need any particular qualification to get elected, nor is the average voter incompetent to decide great political questions.JosiasJessop said:
Surely the problem is that however intelligent someone might be, they cannot be well-informed about every topic.
In fact, a big issue seems to be that many people think that, because they have good knowledge of one area, their views and opinions on another unrelated area must be correct.
Okay, this may be controversial. Yes, they are.
That's why we have the ultra-low quality of political debate amongst the public, where someone's background, name, ethnicity or looks might matter as much as what they say or do. Why the 'Cameron and a pig' story was headline news, or David Miiband and the banana helped ruin his career. It's why we get large percentages of people who vote for the same party election after election, regardless of that party's competence.
As an example, I know f'all about economics. I could probably describe the Laffer curve (though I've no idea if I'd get it right), and so my judgement on economic questions basically come down to my existing bias. If you were to ask me, as an individual, to decide an economic policy I'd be worse than incompetent.
Yet I'd argue that democracy, where run well, works. Why? Because whilst the average voter is incompetent to decide great political questions, when you get a few thousand, or a few million, together, you mostly get a relatively sane answer. 'Wisdom of the crowds' writ large.0 -
We're doomed......part 5,763,980
British car manufacturing enjoyed its best month in 17 years in March fuelled by demand for vehicles from abroad.
The number of cars to roll off UK production lines rose by 7.3% last month compared with a year earlier, to 170,691 - the highest number since March 2000.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/apr/27/uk-car-industry-has-its-best-month-in-17-years0 -
Olney v Goldsmith.
Why can't they both lose?0 -
I agree. That is reinforced by personally knowing a handful of those who have been elected.Sean_F said:
I think many of us are as intelligent and well-informed as the people we elect.Peter_the_Punter said:
Well I'm sure nobody is offended, Big G, because it's clear that I mean when it comes to complicated matters of policy, international affairs, economics and the like, most people (including myself) are pretty ill-informed and not very well qualified to make a judgement. No, of course I'm not saying they're idiots in the sense of being generally stupid. That would be unpleasant as well as plainly wrong. But in relation to the kind of sophistication you need to make a decent call on matters like Remain/Leave, yes we're mostly desperately lacking and in that sense, a bunch idiots. Isn't that why we appoint representatives to make decisions on our behalf?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I accept that is your view but to label a majority idiots is just unacceptable. Everyone is entitled to a view without being called an idiotPeter_the_Punter said:(Big G: I do not understand your reference to idiots.)
Most people who voted in the referendum didn't have the faintest idea what they were voting for or against - and that is true of both sides, although I suppose you could just about say that Remainers had a slightly better idea if only because we were actually in the EU already. Even on a fairly intellectual site like this the level of understanding was fairly shallow. I'm as good an example as any. I've followed politics all my life and even written about it, but even I didn't think about what leaving might mean for, say, Gibraltar, or Scottish Independence, or the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic. So on voting day I took a reluctant stab at getting the answer right. I would have preferred to vote 'Remain, but.....'. It wasn't an option. Nor was 'Leave, but....' So, I did my best, and voted in accordance with the nearest approximation to my best judgement.
S
The politicians who led us into our current situation shirked their responsibilities. Those who perceive their task now as merely to find some sort of majority are continuing in the same irresponsible vein.
Is that clear now, Big G? Hope so. I need some sleep.
Anyway the substantive point was to explain why I didn't think 'suiting a majority' should be regarded as some sort of laudable objective, or at least not in the matter under discussion.
Thanks for your patience in reading what I wrote, and responding civily.
Of course, a few are tremendously clever and exceptionally well informed.0 -
Not really. He's like a dozen senior investment bankers (admitted the best at that particular job) that I know.SouthamObserver said:
Imagine May actually engaging with voters in that way. She couldn't and wouldn't. The Facebook clip is well worth watching. Macron has got something about him.CarlottaVance said:Interesting - honesty - a brave new politician, or an inexperienced one?
Confronted by mechanics angry that their factory will be closed next year as production moves to Poland, Macron said: 'I'm not telling you that I'm going to save your jobs, because nobody can do it.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4447882/Le-Pen-upstages-French-rival-Macron-factory-visit.html
Anders Bergendahl, Carlo Calabria or definitely Andrea Orcel, for instance, could all knock him into a cocked hat. Freddie Wraneus would give him a run for his money, but he probably would outperform most of the Brits in the industry (someone like Simon Robey is technically better as a banker, but wouldn't be able to make the transition to the public world, while Bob Wiggly is just too Blairish)0 -
0
-
Having been out of (effective, consequently read-only) intenet contact yesterday, can I belatedly send my sympathies to Sunil & Murali.
As someone else said, you subconsciously know you are going to lose your parents but there’s always a sense of being suddenly bereft.0 -
Cameron and the pig was funny. That's why it was news.JosiasJessop said:
"nor is the average voter incompetent to decide great political questions"Sean_F said:
I think that's correct. But, politics isn't like brain surgery or quantum physics, where you really do have to trust the experts, and hope they get it right. You don't need any particular qualification to get elected, nor is the average voter incompetent to decide great political questions.JosiasJessop said:
Surely the problem is that however intelligent someone might be, they cannot be well-informed about every topic.
In fact, a big issue seems to be that many people think that, because they have good knowledge of one area, their views and opinions on another unrelated area must be correct.
Okay, this may be controversial. Yes, they are.
That's why we have the ultra-low quality of political debate amongst the public, where someone's background, name, ethnicity or looks might matter as much as what they say or do. Why the 'Cameron and a pig' story was headline news, or David Miiband and the banana helped ruin his career. It's why we get large percentages of people who vote for the same party election after election, regardless of that party's competence.
As an example, I know f'all about economics. I could probably describe the Laffer curve (though I've no idea if I'd get it right), and so my judgement on economic questions basically come down to my existing bias. If you were to ask me, as an individual, to decide an economic policy I'd be worse than incompetent.
Yet I'd argue that democracy, where run well, works. Why? Because whilst the average voter is incompetent to decide great political questions, when you get a few thousand, or a few million, together, you mostly get a relatively sane answer. 'Wisdom of the crowds' writ large.0 -
-
The essence of democracy is to reject the notion of elites - however expert they may be - deciding everything for us plebeians.Casino_Royale said:
I agree. That is reinforced by personally knowing a handful of those who have been elected.Sean_F said:
I think many of us are as intelligent and well-informed as the people we elect.Peter_the_Punter said:
Well I'm sure nobody is offended, Big G, because it's clear that I mean when it comes to complicated matters of policy, international affairs, economics and the like, most people (including myself) are pretty ill-informed and not very well qualified to make a judgement. No, of course I'm not saying they're idiots in the sense of being generally stupid. That would be unpleasant as well as plainly wrong. But in relation to the kind of sophistication you need to make a decent call on matters like Remain/Leave, yes we're mostly desperately lacking and in that sense, a bunch idiots. Isn't that why we appoint representatives to make decisions on our behalf?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I accept that is your view but to label a majority idiots is just unacceptable. Everyone is entitled to a view without being called an idiotPeter_the_Punter said:(Big G: I do not understand your reference to idiots.)
Most people who voted in the referendum didn't have the faintest idea what they were voting for or against - and that is true of both sides, although I suppose you could just about say that Remainers had a slightly better idea if only because we were actually in the EU already. Even on a fairly intellectual site was fairly shallow. I'm as good an example as any. I've followed politics all my life and even written about it, but even I didn't think about what leaving might mean for, say, Gibraltar, or Scottish Independence, or the border between Northern Ireland and the Republic. So on voting day I took a reluctant stab at getting the answer right. I would have preferred to vote 'Remain, but.....'. It wasn't an option. Nor was 'Leave, but....' So, I did my best, and voted in accordance with the nearest approximation to my best judgement.
S
The politicians who led us into our current situation shirked their responsibilities. Those who perceive their task now as merely to find some sort of majority are continuing in the same irresponsible vein.
Is that clear now, Big G? Hope so. I need some sleep.
Anyway the substantive point was to explain why I didn't think 'suiting a majority' should be regarded as some sort of laudable objective, or at least not in the matter under discussion.
Thanks for your patience in reading what I wrote, and responding civily.
Of course, a few are tremendously clever and exceptionally well informed.0 -
Checks blue touchpaper. Brexit poll swings the other way.
https://twitter.com/chrishanretty/status/8574701407824363520 -
Impressive, compared with LePen's 10 min selfie stop.SouthamObserver said:
Imagine May actually engaging with voters in that way. She couldn't and wouldn't. The Facebook clip is well worth watching. Macron has got something about him.CarlottaVance said:Interesting - honesty - a brave new politician, or an inexperienced one?
Confronted by mechanics angry that their factory will be closed next year as production moves to Poland, Macron said: 'I'm not telling you that I'm going to save your jobs, because nobody can do it.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4447882/Le-Pen-upstages-French-rival-Macron-factory-visit.html
Naive campaigning or brave?
Certainly a marked contrast to May's wooden performances with silent workers not allowed to speak to the press.
https://twitter.com/election_data/status/8572539273639813120 -
Macron has been compared to Blair which says it all really. I think many Liberal/left pundits have lost all sense of rational judgement with regards to leadership in this country - this is what a few years of a Corbyn leadership has done, when any improvement requires little more than a pulse to qualify.Charles said:
Not really. He's like a dozen senior investment bankers (admitted the best at that particular job) that I know.SouthamObserver said:
Imagine May actually engaging with voters in that way. She couldn't and wouldn't. The Facebook clip is well worth watching. Macron has got something about him.CarlottaVance said:Interesting - honesty - a brave new politician, or an inexperienced one?
Confronted by mechanics angry that their factory will be closed next year as production moves to Poland, Macron said: 'I'm not telling you that I'm going to save your jobs, because nobody can do it.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4447882/Le-Pen-upstages-French-rival-Macron-factory-visit.html
Anders Bergendahl, Carlo Calabria or definitely Andrea Orcel, for instance, could all knock him into a cocked hat. Freddie Wraneus would give him a run for his money, but he probably would outperform most of the Brits in the industry (someone like Simon Robey is technically better as a banker, but wouldn't be able to make the transition to the public world, while Bob Wiggly is just too Blairish)0 -
Democracy works because the process itself ensures that, more often than in other systems, people with power don't get overly greedy, complacent, power-abusive or corrupt, since they know that sooner or later they or their party will be removed from office. And to make system more responsive to public opinion between elections, because there is always half an eye on winning potential votes. It isn't really about getting to a "right" answer in any objective sense (in theory that is what officials are for).JosiasJessop said:
"nor is the average voter incompetent to decide great political questions"Sean_F said:
I think that's correct. But, politics isn't like brain surgery or quantum physics, where you really do have to trust the experts, and hope they get it right. You don't need any particular qualification to get elected, nor is the average voter incompetent to decide great political questions.JosiasJessop said:
Surely the problem is that however intelligent someone might be, they cannot be well-informed about every topic.
In fact, a big issue seems to be that many people think that, because they have good knowledge of one area, their views and opinions on another unrelated area must be correct.
Okay, this may be controversial. Yes, they are.
That's why we have the ultra-low quality of political debate amongst the public, where someone's background, name, ethnicity or looks might matter as much as what they say or do. Why the 'Cameron and a pig' story was headline news, or David Miiband and the banana helped ruin his career. It's why we get large percentages of people who vote for the same party election after election, regardless of that party's competence.
As an example, I know f'all about economics. I could probably describe the Laffer curve (though I've no idea if I'd get it right), and so my judgement on economic questions basically come down to my existing bias. If you were to ask me, as an individual, to decide an economic policy I'd be worse than incompetent.
Yet I'd argue that democracy, where run well, works. Why? Because whilst the average voter is incompetent to decide great political questions, when you get a few thousand, or a few million, together, you mostly get a relatively sane answer. 'Wisdom of the crowds' writ large.
0 -
Macron is definitely fresh and interesting.foxinsoxuk said:
Impressive, compared with LePen's 10 min selfie stop.SouthamObserver said:
Imagine May actually engaging with voters in that way. She couldn't and wouldn't. The Facebook clip is well worth watching. Macron has got something about him.CarlottaVance said:Interesting - honesty - a brave new politician, or an inexperienced one?
Confronted by mechanics angry that their factory will be closed next year as production moves to Poland, Macron said: 'I'm not telling you that I'm going to save your jobs, because nobody can do it.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4447882/Le-Pen-upstages-French-rival-Macron-factory-visit.html
Naive campaigning or brave?
Certainly a marked contrast to May's wooden performances with silent workers not allowed to speak to the press.
https://twitter.com/election_data/status/8572539273639813120 -
It's still used elsewhere (and I think occasionally on here) with reference to him, in terms like: "What do you expect from someone who'd **** a pig."Sean_F said:
Cameron and the pig was funny. That's why it was news.JosiasJessop said:
"nor is the average voter incompetent to decide great political questions"Sean_F said:
I think that's correct. But, politics isn't like brain surgery or quantum physics, where you really do have to trust the experts, and hope they get it right. You don't need any particular qualification to get elected, nor is the average voter incompetent to decide great political questions.JosiasJessop said:
Surely the problem is that however intelligent someone might be, they cannot be well-informed about every topic.
In fact, a big issue seems to be that many people think that, because they have good knowledge of one area, their views and opinions on another unrelated area must be correct.
Okay, this may be controversial. Yes, they are.
That's why we have the ultra-low quality of political debate amongst the public, where someone's background, name, ethnicity or looks might matter as much as what they say or do. Why the 'Cameron and a pig' story was headline news, or David Miiband and the banana helped ruin his career. It's why we get large percentages of people who vote for the same party election after election, regardless of that party's competence.
As an example, I know f'all about economics. I could probably describe the Laffer curve (though I've no idea if I'd get it right), and so my judgement on economic questions basically come down to my existing bias. If you were to ask me, as an individual, to decide an economic policy I'd be worse than incompetent.
Yet I'd argue that democracy, where run well, works. Why? Because whilst the average voter is incompetent to decide great political questions, when you get a few thousand, or a few million, together, you mostly get a relatively sane answer. 'Wisdom of the crowds' writ large.
The same with Miliband and the banana. Funny, yes. Important, no.0 -
Sunil - sorry to hear of the loss of your father.0
-
I struggle with two issues around this:MarqueeMark said:
How many of these will result in prosecutions? And in how many of these prosecutions will a jury find there was intent? Very, very few is my assessment.TheScreamingEagles said:Mike's had a pretty good take on the expenses scandal.
Back in December, when the focus was on Thanet South, he wrote
"PB sources have also reported concern within the Tory HQ about other seats."
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/12/08/guido-says-the-tories-are-bracing-themselves-for-charges-over-thanet-south/
Before Mrs May called the election, he did a piece where his sources told him that the Crosby polling in the South West marginals was to do with worries over expense charges.
Which even Alex Salmond picked up on citing Mike
http://tinyurl.com/HannibalsSuchALoser
And yet it is routinely talked of on here as a massive scandal that was going to bring down the Government's majority.
A. The relentless leaking by the CPS. Their job is to make a decision not to tell the world thet they're going to make a decision. Their history is that they're lazy incompetents led by politically minded incompetents but I thought this was something they were trying to change; and
B. The time extensions. It's possible that these are usual but to double the time limit strikes me as a breach of natural justice - time limits are there for certainty and allowing a year's extension is the opposite of certainty. The extension surely is there if the police think they have almost all the evidence but just need a few more days. It just seems an excuse for leisurely investigations and hoping that the nominal accused will confess to something to make it all go away.0 -
I used to criticise Cameron on a similar basis. 'How could an account executive at an ad agency whose job was to sell the ideas of much more talented people possibly be qualified to be PM?'Charles said:
Not really. He's like a dozen senior investment bankers (admitted the best at that particular job) that I know.SouthamObserver said:
Imagine May actually engaging with voters in that way. She couldn't and wouldn't. The Facebook clip is well worth watching. Macron has got something about him.CarlottaVance said:Interesting - honesty - a brave new politician, or an inexperienced one?
Confronted by mechanics angry that their factory will be closed next year as production moves to Poland, Macron said: 'I'm not telling you that I'm going to save your jobs, because nobody can do it.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4447882/Le-Pen-upstages-French-rival-Macron-factory-visit.html
Anders Bergendahl, Carlo Calabria or definitely Andrea Orcel, for instance, could all knock him into a cocked hat. Freddie Wraneus would give him a run for his money, but he probably would outperform most of the Brits in the industry (someone like Simon Robey is technically better as a banker, but wouldn't be able to make the transition to the public world, while Bob Wiggly is just too Blairish)
It took me a while to accept he was no more born an account exec than he was a PM and infact the talents of an account exec (such as they are) are wasted in an ad agency. They'd be far better employed as a prime minister.0 -
'Toxic' Tories
Net Favourability OA (2015 Voters)
Con: -2 (+80)
Lab: -27 (+41)
LibD: -35 (+62)
UKIP: -43 (+44)
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ny1kfo8x0u/InternalResults_170420_Favourability_W.pdf0 -
Yep, that's right Charles: you find investment bankers down at the factory gates debating with hostile workers worried about losing their jobs every day of the week.Charles said:
Not really. He's like a dozen senior investment bankers (admitted the best at that particular job) that I know.SouthamObserver said:
Imagine May actually engaging with voters in that way. She couldn't and wouldn't. The Facebook clip is well worth watching. Macron has got something about him.CarlottaVance said:Interesting - honesty - a brave new politician, or an inexperienced one?
Confronted by mechanics angry that their factory will be closed next year as production moves to Poland, Macron said: 'I'm not telling you that I'm going to save your jobs, because nobody can do it.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4447882/Le-Pen-upstages-French-rival-Macron-factory-visit.html
Anders Bergendahl, Carlo Calabria or definitely Andrea Orcel, for instance, could all knock him into a cocked hat. Freddie Wraneus would give him a run for his money, but he probably would outperform most of the Brits in the industry (someone like Simon Robey is technically better as a banker, but wouldn't be able to make the transition to the public world, while Bob Wiggly is just too Blairish)
Very impressive you know some investment bankers btw.
0 -
The one I heard about is outrageously trivial. No overnight stay by battle bus, one single visit. Instructions from party to assign to national campaign. If included in local campaign still wouldn't have breached spending limits, yet local force has sent files to cps.matt said:
I struggle with two issues around this:MarqueeMark said:
How many of these will result in prosecutions? And in how many of these prosecutions will a jury find there was intent? Very, very few is my assessment.TheScreamingEagles said:Mike's had a pretty good take on the expenses scandal.
Back in December, when the focus was on Thanet South, he wrote
"PB sources have also reported concern within the Tory HQ about other seats."
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/12/08/guido-says-the-tories-are-bracing-themselves-for-charges-over-thanet-south/
Before Mrs May called the election, he did a piece where his sources told him that the Crosby polling in the South West marginals was to do with worries over expense charges.
Which even Alex Salmond picked up on citing Mike
http://tinyurl.com/HannibalsSuchALoser
And yet it is routinely talked of on here as a massive scandal that was going to bring down the Government's majority.
A. The relentless leaking by the CPS. Their job is to make a decision not to tell the world thet they're going to make a decision. Their history is that they're lazy incompetents led by politically minded incompetents but I thought this was something they were trying to change; and
B. The time extensions. It's possible that these are usual but to double the time limit strikes me as a breach of natural justice - time limits are there for certainty and allowing a year's extension is the opposite of certainty. The extension surely is there if the police think they have almost all the evidence but just need a few more days. It just seems an excuse for leisurely investigations and hoping that the nominal accused will confess to something to make it all go away.0 -
That's a good point. Yet when one of the extremes is offered, the electorate mostly don't accept their promises (witness Corbyn).IanB2 said:
Democracy works because the process itself ensures that, more often than in other systems, people with power don't get overly greedy, complacent, power-abusive or corrupt, since they know that sooner or later they or their party will be removed from office. And to make system more responsive to public opinion between elections, because there is always half an eye on winning potential votes. It isn't really about getting to a "right" answer in any objective sense (in theory that is what officials are for).JosiasJessop said:
"nor is the average voter incompetent to decide great political questions"Sean_F said:
I think that's correct. But, politics isn't like brain surgery or quantum physics, where you really do have to trust the experts, and hope they get it right. You don't need any particular qualification to get elected, nor is the average voter incompetent to decide great political questions.JosiasJessop said:
Surely the problem is that however intelligent someone might be, they cannot be well-informed about every topic.
In fact, a big issue seems to be that many people think that, because they have good knowledge of one area, their views and opinions on another unrelated area must be correct.
Okay, this may be controversial. Yes, they are.
That's why we have the ultra-low quality of political debate amongst the public, where someone's background, name, ethnicity or looks might matter as much as what they say or do. Why the 'Cameron and a pig' story was headline news, or David Miiband and the banana helped ruin his career. It's why we get large percentages of people who vote for the same party election after election, regardless of that party's competence.
As an example, I know f'all about economics. I could probably describe the Laffer curve (though I've no idea if I'd get it right), and so my judgement on economic questions basically come down to my existing bias. If you were to ask me, as an individual, to decide an economic policy I'd be worse than incompetent.
Yet I'd argue that democracy, where run well, works. Why? Because whilst the average voter is incompetent to decide great political questions, when you get a few thousand, or a few million, together, you mostly get a relatively sane answer. 'Wisdom of the crowds' writ large.0 -
Does make one wonder why the fuck we're risking it all by leaving the EU...typical of this country just as things start looking up we clutch defeat from the jaws of victoryCarlottaVance said:We're doomed......part 5,763,980
British car manufacturing enjoyed its best month in 17 years in March fuelled by demand for vehicles from abroad.
The number of cars to roll off UK production lines rose by 7.3% last month compared with a year earlier, to 170,691 - the highest number since March 2000.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/apr/27/uk-car-industry-has-its-best-month-in-17-years0 -
I can understand extensions if the cases are incredibly complex. But surely this cannot be the case here?matt said:
I struggle with two issues around this:MarqueeMark said:
How many of these will result in prosecutions? And in how many of these prosecutions will a jury find there was intent? Very, very few is my assessment.TheScreamingEagles said:Mike's had a pretty good take on the expenses scandal.
Back in December, when the focus was on Thanet South, he wrote
"PB sources have also reported concern within the Tory HQ about other seats."
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/12/08/guido-says-the-tories-are-bracing-themselves-for-charges-over-thanet-south/
Before Mrs May called the election, he did a piece where his sources told him that the Crosby polling in the South West marginals was to do with worries over expense charges.
Which even Alex Salmond picked up on citing Mike
http://tinyurl.com/HannibalsSuchALoser
And yet it is routinely talked of on here as a massive scandal that was going to bring down the Government's majority.
A. The relentless leaking by the CPS. Their job is to make a decision not to tell the world thet they're going to make a decision. Their history is that they're lazy incompetents led by politically minded incompetents but I thought this was something they were trying to change; and
B. The time extensions. It's possible that these are usual but to double the time limit strikes me as a breach of natural justice - time limits are there for certainty and allowing a year's extension is the opposite of certainty. The extension surely is there if the police think they have almost all the evidence but just need a few more days. It just seems an excuse for leisurely investigations and hoping that the nominal accused will confess to something to make it all go away.0 -
'Unappealing May'
Net Favourability OA (2015 Voters)
May: +10 (+73)
Corbyn: -42 (-10)
Farron: -26 (+18)
Nuttall: -43 (-25)0 -
Whatever the CPS decide, it will be nigh on impossible to arrange any trials this side of the election; hence I struggle to see the matter having much impact.matt said:
I struggle with two issues around this:MarqueeMark said:
How many of these will result in prosecutions? And in how many of these prosecutions will a jury find there was intent? Very, very few is my assessment.TheScreamingEagles said:Mike's had a pretty good take on the expenses scandal.
Back in December, when the focus was on Thanet South, he wrote
"PB sources have also reported concern within the Tory HQ about other seats."
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/12/08/guido-says-the-tories-are-bracing-themselves-for-charges-over-thanet-south/
Before Mrs May called the election, he did a piece where his sources told him that the Crosby polling in the South West marginals was to do with worries over expense charges.
Which even Alex Salmond picked up on citing Mike
http://tinyurl.com/HannibalsSuchALoser
And yet it is routinely talked of on here as a massive scandal that was going to bring down the Government's majority.
A. The relentless leaking by the CPS. Their job is to make a decision not to tell the world thet they're going to make a decision. Their history is that they're lazy incompetents led by politically minded incompetents but I thought this was something they were trying to change; and
B. The time extensions. It's possible that these are usual but to double the time limit strikes me as a breach of natural justice - time limits are there for certainty and allowing a year's extension is the opposite of certainty. The extension surely is there if the police think they have almost all the evidence but just need a few more days. It just seems an excuse for leisurely investigations and hoping that the nominal accused will confess to something to make it all go away.0 -
There was no Tory manifesto pledge to pull out of echr.CarlottaVance said:Good. With a bit of luck very long grass beckons.....
Britain will be bound by European human rights laws for another five years with the Conservatives expected to abandon a pledge to withdraw the UK from the ECHR.
Theresa May is expected to make no mention in the Tory election manifesto of pulling out of the European Convention on Human Rights.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/26/britain-likely-bound-european-convention-human-rights-2022/
Cue lots of confusion over ECJ vs ECHR.....0 -
Macron is truly the wonder of our age - under 25% in a vote against a neo-fascist, an ageing communist, a corrupt right-winger.....etc, etc. What Theresa would give for that kind of charisma.SouthamObserver said:0 -
The contrast is marked.SouthamObserver said:
Meanwhile Marine LePen has put Jean Francois Jalkh (who has in the past been a holocaust denier) in charge of the FN during her absence. I await all the condemnation that PBers usually display to anti-semitism.
0 -
Or will the lower pound improve sales further?TheKrakenAwakes said:
Does make one wonder why the fuck we're risking it all by leaving the EU...typical of this country just as things start looking up we clutch defeat from the jaws of victoryCarlottaVance said:We're doomed......part 5,763,980
British car manufacturing enjoyed its best month in 17 years in March fuelled by demand for vehicles from abroad.
The number of cars to roll off UK production lines rose by 7.3% last month compared with a year earlier, to 170,691 - the highest number since March 2000.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/apr/27/uk-car-industry-has-its-best-month-in-17-years0 -
If you don't think it's impressive Macron had enough respect for ordinary voters to spend time debating with them in an uncontrolled environment and to be honest with them about globalisation when he did, so be it. That approach seems a lot more authentic to me than choreographed strolls around factory floors under highly controlled conditions. I guess that's because I have lost all sense of rational judgement.felix said:
Macron has been compared to Blair which says it all really. I think many Liberal/left pundits have lost all sense of rational judgement with regards to leadership in this country - this is what a few years of a Corbyn leadership has done, when any improvement requires little more than a pulse to qualify.Charles said:
Not really. He's like a dozen senior investment bankers (admitted the best at that particular job) that I know.SouthamObserver said:
Imagine May actually engaging with voters in that way. She couldn't and wouldn't. The Facebook clip is well worth watching. Macron has got something about him.CarlottaVance said:Interesting - honesty - a brave new politician, or an inexperienced one?
Confronted by mechanics angry that their factory will be closed next year as production moves to Poland, Macron said: 'I'm not telling you that I'm going to save your jobs, because nobody can do it.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4447882/Le-Pen-upstages-French-rival-Macron-factory-visit.html
Anders Bergendahl, Carlo Calabria or definitely Andrea Orcel, for instance, could all knock him into a cocked hat. Freddie Wraneus would give him a run for his money, but he probably would outperform most of the Brits in the industry (someone like Simon Robey is technically better as a banker, but wouldn't be able to make the transition to the public world, while Bob Wiggly is just too Blairish)
0 -
Because our political aims are different from those of most EU leaders.TheKrakenAwakes said:
Does make one wonder why the fuck we're risking it all by leaving the EU...typical of this country just as things start looking up we clutch defeat from the jaws of victoryCarlottaVance said:We're doomed......part 5,763,980
British car manufacturing enjoyed its best month in 17 years in March fuelled by demand for vehicles from abroad.
The number of cars to roll off UK production lines rose by 7.3% last month compared with a year earlier, to 170,691 - the highest number since March 2000.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/apr/27/uk-car-industry-has-its-best-month-in-17-years0 -
British car manufacturing enjoyed its best month in 17 years in March fuelled by demand for vehicles from abroad.TheKrakenAwakes said:
Does make one wonder why the fuck we're risking it all by leaving the EU...typical of this country just as things start looking up we clutch defeat from the jaws of victoryCarlottaVance said:We're doomed......part 5,763,980
British car manufacturing enjoyed its best month in 17 years in March fuelled by demand for vehicles from abroad.
The number of cars to roll off UK production lines rose by 7.3% last month compared with a year earlier, to 170,691 - the highest number since March 2000.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/apr/27/uk-car-industry-has-its-best-month-in-17-years
Crucially, how much of that is from the EU is not mentioned. 10% tariff looms.
0 -
A profoundly rational post :-)felix said:
Macron is truly the wonder of our age - under 25% in a vote against a neo-fascist, an ageing communist, a corrupt right-winger.....etc, etc. What Theresa would give for that kind of charisma.SouthamObserver said:
0 -
Good to see Macron being lionised already, not like the centre left/left have been very wrong about this in the recent past in Europe.
Very little is known about him, he is still building a party and has a murky personal life. Give the man a chance eh?0 -
Exports up; most to Europe. Demand at home down. A tasty circle for Boris, Dave and Liam to square.TheKrakenAwakes said:
Does make one wonder why the fuck we're risking it all by leaving the EU...typical of this country just as things start looking up we clutch defeat from the jaws of victoryCarlottaVance said:We're doomed......part 5,763,980
British car manufacturing enjoyed its best month in 17 years in March fuelled by demand for vehicles from abroad.
The number of cars to roll off UK production lines rose by 7.3% last month compared with a year earlier, to 170,691 - the highest number since March 2000.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/apr/27/uk-car-industry-has-its-best-month-in-17-years
0 -
May's favourability ratings range from -36 among 18-24 reaching +40 among the 65+. Corbyn by contrast is least unpopular among the youngest (-10) and most among the oldest (-61) - so that's now over a 100 point difference between May & Corbyn among the 65+.
Sturgeon was also included - she's not popular in GB (-36) but is in Scotland (subsample) (+14) comfortably ahead of May (-22) and Corbyn (-33). SNP 2015 vote is not asked so its not possible to compare as with the others.0 -
Clearly Macron is no coward, and is a genuine believer in Liberal economics as well as Liberal social values.SouthamObserver said:
If you don't think it's impressive Macron had enough respect for ordinary voters to spend time debating with them in an uncontrolled environment and to be honest with them about globalisation when he did, so be it. That approach seems a lot more authentic to me than choreographed strolls around factory floors under highly controlled conditions. I guess that's because I have lost all sense of rational judgement.felix said:
Macron has been compared to Blair which says it all really. I think many Liberal/left pundits have lost all sense of rational judgement with regards to leadership in this country - this is what a few years of a Corbyn leadership has done, when any improvement requires little more than a pulse to qualify.Charles said:
Not really. He's like a dozen senior investment bankers (admitted the best at that particular job) that I know.SouthamObserver said:
Imagine May actually engaging with voters in that way. She couldn't and wouldn't. The Facebook clip is well worth watching. Macron has got something about him.CarlottaVance said:Interesting - honesty - a brave new politician, or an inexperienced one?
Confronted by mechanics angry that their factory will be closed next year as production moves to Poland, Macron said: 'I'm not telling you that I'm going to save your jobs, because nobody can do it.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4447882/Le-Pen-upstages-French-rival-Macron-factory-visit.html
Anders Bergendahl, Carlo Calabria or definitely Andrea Orcel, for instance, could all knock him into a cocked hat. Freddie Wraneus would give him a run for his money, but he probably would outperform most of the Brits in the industry (someone like Simon Robey is technically better as a banker, but wouldn't be able to make the transition to the public world, while Bob Wiggly is just too Blairish)
Debating angry workers suggests that he has the courage for the economic reforms needed in France, and real confidence in his ideas.
Worth noting that this took place in his hometown of Amiens.0 -
Someone should ask him how many times in the last 10 months, did more people regret leaving as opposed to remaining and how many of those instances were in the last month.dr_spyn said:Checks blue touchpaper. Brexit poll swings the other way.
https://twitter.com/chrishanretty/status/8574701407824363520 -
You can see why the right hates him.foxinsoxuk said:
Clearly Macron is no coward, and is a genuine believer in Liberal economics as well as Liberal social values.SouthamObserver said:
If you don't think it's impressive Macron had enough respect for ordinary voters to spend time debating with them in an uncontrolled environment and to be honest with them about globalisation when he did, so be it. That approach seems a lot more authentic to me than choreographed strolls around factory floors under highly controlled conditions. I guess that's because I have lost all sense of rational judgement.felix said:
Macron has been compared to Blair which says it all really. I think many Liberal/left pundits have lost all sense of rational judgement with regards to leadership in this country - this is what a few years of a Corbyn leadership has done, when any improvement requires little more than a pulse to qualify.Charles said:
Not really. He's like a dozen senior investment bankers (admitted the best at that particular job) that I know.SouthamObserver said:
Imagine May actually engaging with voters in that way. She couldn't and wouldn't. The Facebook clip is well worth watching. Macron has got something about him.CarlottaVance said:Interesting - honesty - a brave new politician, or an inexperienced one?
Confronted by mechanics angry that their factory will be closed next year as production moves to Poland, Macron said: 'I'm not telling you that I'm going to save your jobs, because nobody can do it.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4447882/Le-Pen-upstages-French-rival-Macron-factory-visit.html
Anders Bergendahl, Carlo Calabria or definitely Andrea Orcel, for instance, could all knock him into a cocked hat. Freddie Wraneus would give him a run for his money, but he probably would outperform most of the Brits in the industry (someone like Simon Robey is technically better as a banker, but wouldn't be able to make the transition to the public world, while Bob Wiggly is just too Blairish)
Debating angry workers suggests that he has the courage for the economic reforms needed in France, and real confidence in his ideas.
Worth noting that this took place in his hometown of Amiens.
0 -
There's a great line in Tim Minchin's polemic Storm:Novo said:
David Tredinnick's views on Homeopathy are extremely dangerous. There are instances where Cancer patients have forsaken their prescribed medication for homeopathic remedies. When I was asked to include homeopathy in the Medical Curriculum, I said - Sure, provide me with double blind control studies showing it works and I'll change the curriculum. Nobody ever contacted me.kle4 said:
Unfortunately people are allowed to vote for idiots. It's the parties' faults for selecting them.rcs1000 said:
You know, most homeopathy believers and practicers are pretty harmless. I believe in evidence based medicine, science and government. And I get the fact that someone - who charges a relatively modest amount - and listens to your problems for half an hour probably isn't doing any harm.another_richard said:
Even David Tredinnick has his use.rcs1000 said:
Sure, David Tredinnick is one. And someone who went to university with my wife is another.another_richard said:
He was able to upset our old friend tim with his medical opinions.
But homeopathy is merely the most obvious of Tredinnick's divorcement from reality. He really believes in astrology and has pushed for its inclusion in the NHS. He's a fan of remote healing. That's proper bonkers, that is. And then there's the MMR vaccine.
There are many parts of science and policy that right thinking people can disagree about. We can talk about the extent to which equality of opportunity infringes on parent's rights. We can discuss whether global warming exists. We can argue about the best way to run a criminal justice system or what the correct rate of marginal tax is.
All these things are - passionately - debatable.
But astrology is not. Nor is remote healing. Nor homeopathy. Tredinnick is a fraud or an idiot. Whichever it is, he shouldn't be an elected official.
Do you know what we call alternative medicine which has been proven to work?
Medicine.0 -
I think you have - the other day it was Yvette Cooper after one question in PMQs.SouthamObserver said:
If you don't think it's impressive Macron had enough respect for ordinary voters to spend time debating with them in an uncontrolled environment and to be honest with them about globalisation when he did, so be it. That approach seems a lot more authentic to me than choreographed strolls around factory floors under highly controlled conditions. I guess that's because I have lost all sense of rational judgement.felix said:
Macron has been compared to Blair which says it all really. I think many Liberal/left pundits have lost all sense of rational judgement with regards to leadership in this country - this is what a few years of a Corbyn leadership has done, when any improvement requires little more than a pulse to qualify.Charles said:
Not really. He's like a dozen senior investment bankers (admitted the best at that particular job) that I know.SouthamObserver said:
Imagine May actually engaging with voters in that way. She couldn't and wouldn't. The Facebook clip is well worth watching. Macron has got something about him.CarlottaVance said:Interesting - honesty - a brave new politician, or an inexperienced one?
Confronted by mechanics angry that their factory will be closed next year as production moves to Poland, Macron said: 'I'm not telling you that I'm going to save your jobs, because nobody can do it.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4447882/Le-Pen-upstages-French-rival-Macron-factory-visit.html
Anders Bergendahl, Carlo Calabria or definitely Andrea Orcel, for instance, could all knock him into a cocked hat. Freddie Wraneus would give him a run for his money, but he probably would outperform most of the Brits in the industry (someone like Simon Robey is technically better as a banker, but wouldn't be able to make the transition to the public world, while Bob Wiggly is just too Blairish)0 -
The time extensions didn't surprise me. I think we have had 15 separate forces now reporting back to the CPS. None of those forces had any expertise in policing elections. They have all started from scratch, presumably having their own methodology on how to run the case. I heard yesterday of £1.5m being the cost for just one of these investigations.matt said:
I struggle with two issues around this:
A. The relentless leaking by the CPS. Their job is to make a decision not to tell the world thet they're going to make a decision. Their history is that they're lazy incompetents led by politically minded incompetents but I thought this was something they were trying to change; and
B. The time extensions. It's possible that these are usual but to double the time limit strikes me as a breach of natural justice - time limits are there for certainty and allowing a year's extension is the opposite of certainty. The extension surely is there if the police think they have almost all the evidence but just need a few more days. It just seems an excuse for leisurely investigations and hoping that the nominal accused will confess to something to make it all go away.
And there won't be any "confessions". It is possible that there might be one or two that go to a jury. But I suspect that the CPS will decide - properly - that there is no chance of getting a conviction in most cases, because there was no intent to cheat the system. There are cases where, for example, if the "Battle Bus" cost for half a day HAD been included within constituency level expenses, then those expenses would still have been within limits. Hard to see how democracy was adversely impacted there.
Many of these allegations have been made by political opponents trying to garner some political advantage. That advantage is being played, in the interim period before the CPS have made their decisions on whether there is a case - by parties who, like the Tories, have already been fined for their less than whiter-than-white record. We see it here. We see it in Parliament, from Denis Skinner. That's where I have a problem.0 -
What's his personal life got to do with anything?HaroldO said:Good to see Macron being lionised already, not like the centre left/left have been very wrong about this in the recent past in Europe.
Very little is known about him, he is still building a party and has a murky personal life. Give the man a chance eh?
0 -
Don't like the figures - try sneering.SouthamObserver said:
A profoundly rational post :-)felix said:
Macron is truly the wonder of our age - under 25% in a vote against a neo-fascist, an ageing communist, a corrupt right-winger.....etc, etc. What Theresa would give for that kind of charisma.SouthamObserver said:0 -
I think it has a lot to do with the career trajectory of Boris Johnson and seventeen million largely uneducated followers.TheKrakenAwakes said:
Does make one wonder why the fuck we're risking it all by leaving the EU...typical of this country just as things start looking up we clutch defeat from the jaws of victoryCarlottaVance said:We're doomed......part 5,763,980
British car manufacturing enjoyed its best month in 17 years in March fuelled by demand for vehicles from abroad.
The number of cars to roll off UK production lines rose by 7.3% last month compared with a year earlier, to 170,691 - the highest number since March 2000.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/apr/27/uk-car-industry-has-its-best-month-in-17-years0 -
To me, nothing. To the press and his opponents, a field day.SouthamObserver said:
What's his personal life got to do with anything?HaroldO said:Good to see Macron being lionised already, not like the centre left/left have been very wrong about this in the recent past in Europe.
Very little is known about him, he is still building a party and has a murky personal life. Give the man a chance eh?0 -
Turn it around: a man with no party, and no history of political operations, manages to beat four parties who've historically got tens o millions of votesfelix said:
Macron is truly the wonder of our age - under 25% in a vote against a neo-fascist, an ageing communist, a corrupt right-winger.....etc, etc. What Theresa would give for that kind of charisma.SouthamObserver said:0 -
-
The mooted tariff is pretty much negated by the depreciation of Sterling. The reverse would be the case with imported vehicles. British consumers are the fall guys.surbiton said:
British car manufacturing enjoyed its best month in 17 years in March fuelled by demand for vehicles from abroad.TheKrakenAwakes said:
Does make one wonder why the fuck we're risking it all by leaving the EU...typical of this country just as things start looking up we clutch defeat from the jaws of victoryCarlottaVance said:We're doomed......part 5,763,980
British car manufacturing enjoyed its best month in 17 years in March fuelled by demand for vehicles from abroad.
The number of cars to roll off UK production lines rose by 7.3% last month compared with a year earlier, to 170,691 - the highest number since March 2000.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/apr/27/uk-car-industry-has-its-best-month-in-17-years
Crucially, how much of that is from the EU is not mentioned. 10% tariff looms.
The real damage of customs barriers would be on the supply chains, and perhaps to the brand image of British badged cars. Probably more significant for badges like Jaguar, Range Rover and Mini than "Japanese" badges like Nissan or Toyota.
0 -
I have absolutely no problem with the figures. Macron was fighting a group of machine politicians all backed by long-established, national party organisations. He beat them all. That impresses me. Another example of me losing all rational judgement, I guess.felix said:
Don't like the figures - try sneering.SouthamObserver said:
A profoundly rational post :-)felix said:
Macron is truly the wonder of our age - under 25% in a vote against a neo-fascist, an ageing communist, a corrupt right-winger.....etc, etc. What Theresa would give for that kind of charisma.SouthamObserver said:
0 -
Says a lot about the state of France - rather less about Macron. Of course I will stand corrected if France has reformed 5 years down the road - don't hold your breath.rcs1000 said:
Turn it around: a man with no party, and no history of political operations, manages to beat four parties who've historically got tens o millions of votesfelix said:
Macron is truly the wonder of our age - under 25% in a vote against a neo-fascist, an ageing communist, a corrupt right-winger.....etc, etc. What Theresa would give for that kind of charisma.SouthamObserver said:0 -
David Tredinnick wants to return medicine to the 16th century.DavidL said:
There's a great line in Tim Minchin's polemic Storm:Novo said:
David Tredinnick's views on Homeopathy are extremely dangerous. There are instances where Cancer patients have forsaken their prescribed medication for homeopathic remedies. When I was asked to include homeopathy in the Medical Curriculum, I said - Sure, provide me with double blind control studies showing it works and I'll change the curriculum. Nobody ever contacted me.kle4 said:
Unfortunately people are allowed to vote for idiots. It's the parties' faults for selecting them.rcs1000 said:
You know, most homeopathy believers and practicers are pretty harmless. I believe in evidence based medicine, science and government. And I get the fact that someone - who charges a relatively modest amount - and listens to your problems for half an hour probably isn't doing any harm.another_richard said:
Even David Tredinnick has his use.rcs1000 said:
Sure, David Tredinnick is one. And someone who went to university with my wife is another.another_richard said:
He was able to upset our old friend tim with his medical opinions.
But homeopathy is merely the most obvious of Tredinnick's divorcement from reality. He really believes in astrology and has pushed for its inclusion in the NHS. He's a fan of remote healing. That's proper bonkers, that is. And then there's the MMR vaccine.
There are many parts of science and policy that right thinking people can disagree about. We can talk about the extent to which equality of opportunity infringes on parent's rights. We can discuss whether global warming exists. We can argue about the best way to run a criminal justice system or what the correct rate of marginal tax is.
All these things are - passionately - debatable.
But astrology is not. Nor is remote healing. Nor homeopathy. Tredinnick is a fraud or an idiot. Whichever it is, he shouldn't be an elected official.
Do you know what we call alternative medicine which has been proven to work?
Medicine.0 -
Don't confuse them with the evidence - he is the saviour of France, Europe and the world.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Yup. It tells you how bad things are in France not how good Macron is.felix said:
Says a lot about the state of France - rather less about Macron. Of course I will stand corrected if France has reformed 5 years down the road - don't hold your breath.rcs1000 said:
Turn it around: a man with no party, and no history of political operations, manages to beat four parties who've historically got tens o millions of votesfelix said:
Macron is truly the wonder of our age - under 25% in a vote against a neo-fascist, an ageing communist, a corrupt right-winger.....etc, etc. What Theresa would give for that kind of charisma.SouthamObserver said:0 -
That is the argument of a man with no argument, I'm afraid.felix said:
I think you have - the other day it was Yvette Cooper after one question in PMQs.SouthamObserver said:
If you don't think it's impressive Macron had enough respect for ordinary voters to spend time debating with them in an uncontrolled environment and to be honest with them about globalisation when he did, so be it. That approach seems a lot more authentic to me than choreographed strolls around factory floors under highly controlled conditions. I guess that's because I have lost all sense of rational judgement.felix said:
Macron has been compared to Blair which says it all really. I think many Liberal/left pundits have lost all sense of rational judgement with regards to leadership in this country - this is what a few years of a Corbyn leadership has done, when any improvement requires little more than a pulse to qualify.Charles said:
Not really. He's like a dozen senior investment bankers (admitted the best at that particular job) that I know.SouthamObserver said:
Imagine May actually engaging with voters in that way. She couldn't and wouldn't. The Facebook clip is well worth watching. Macron has got something about him.CarlottaVance said:Interesting - honesty - a brave new politician, or an inexperienced one?
Confronted by mechanics angry that their factory will be closed next year as production moves to Poland, Macron said: 'I'm not telling you that I'm going to save your jobs, because nobody can do it.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4447882/Le-Pen-upstages-French-rival-Macron-factory-visit.html
Anders Bergendahl, Carlo Calabria or definitely Andrea Orcel, for instance, could all knock him into a cocked hat. Freddie Wraneus would give him a run for his money, but he probably would outperform most of the Brits in the industry (someone like Simon Robey is technically better as a banker, but wouldn't be able to make the transition to the public world, while Bob Wiggly is just too Blairish)
Yes, I think Cooper would be a much better Labour leader than Corbyn. I imagine I'm not alone in that.
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I know many people who voted leave. Some are (relatively) uneducated, but most are educated. And I can say exactly the same about the remain voters I know.Roger said:
I think it has a lot to do with the career trajectory of Boris Johnson and seventeen million largely uneducated followers.TheKrakenAwakes said:
Does make one wonder why the fuck we're risking it all by leaving the EU...typical of this country just as things start looking up we clutch defeat from the jaws of victoryCarlottaVance said:We're doomed......part 5,763,980
British car manufacturing enjoyed its best month in 17 years in March fuelled by demand for vehicles from abroad.
The number of cars to roll off UK production lines rose by 7.3% last month compared with a year earlier, to 170,691 - the highest number since March 2000.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/apr/27/uk-car-industry-has-its-best-month-in-17-years
Education, or lack thereof, had little to do with the way people voted in the referendum, and to couch it in those terms loses you the argument. Leave won because they tried to appeal to as large an electorate as possible, with many different arguments.0 -
Some of the right. I suspect Libertarians are quite positive about him. Macron is going to be a major positive for a free trading Europe. Meanwhile we retreat into British LePenism.SouthamObserver said:
You can see why the right hates him.foxinsoxuk said:
Clearly Macron is no coward, and is a genuine believer in Liberal economics as well as Liberal social values.SouthamObserver said:
If you don't think it's impressive Macron had enough respect for ordinary voters to spend time debating with them in an uncontrolled environment and to be honest with them about globalisation when he did, so be it. That approach seems a lot more authentic to me than choreographed strolls around factory floors under highly controlled conditions. I guess that's because I have lost all sense of rational judgement.felix said:
Macron has been compared to Blair which says it all really. I think many Liberal/left pundits have lost all sense of rational judgement with regards to leadership in this country - this is what a few years of a Corbyn leadership has done, when any improvement requires little more than a pulse to qualify.Charles said:
Not really. He's like a dozen senior investment bankers (admitted the best at that particular job) that I know.SouthamObserver said:
Imagine May actually engaging with voters in that way. She couldn't and wouldn't. The Facebook clip is well worth watching. Macron has got something about him.CarlottaVance said:Interesting - honesty - a brave new politician, or an inexperienced one?
Confronted by mechanics angry that their factory will be closed next year as production moves to Poland, Macron said: 'I'm not telling you that I'm going to save your jobs, because nobody can do it.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4447882/Le-Pen-upstages-French-rival-Macron-factory-visit.html
Anders Bergendahl, Carlo Calabria or definitely Andrea Orcel, for instance, could all knock him into a cocked hat. Freddie Wraneus would give him a run for his money, but he probably would outperform most of the Brits in the industry (someone like Simon Robey is technically better as a banker, but wouldn't be able to make the transition to the public world, while Bob Wiggly is just too Blairish)
Debating angry workers suggests that he has the courage for the economic reforms needed in France, and real confidence in his ideas.
Worth noting that this took place in his hometown of Amiens.
For the first time in my life I am jealous of the French.
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I don't know if this has already been posted, but those betting on the Tories in Ynys Mon will be interested to know that Plaid have picked their Ieuan Wyn Jones as their candidate.
He is an ex-leader of Plaid and "Mr Jones was the constituency's MP from 1987 to 2001 and its assembly member between 1999 and 2013."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-397200450 -
At risk of upsetting SO's breakfast (although he knows all this already), this is an interesting read and summary of the Labour left's perspective on this election:
https://www.jacobinmag.com/2017/04/jeremy-corbyn-labour-party-theresa-may-snap-election/
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The desire of English Conservatives for France to fail is as tangible as it is demeaningfelix said:
Don't confuse them with the evidence - he is the saviour of France, Europe and the world.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Oh dear.felix said:
Don't confuse them with the evidence - he is the saviour of France, Europe and the world.CarlottaVance said:
It's pretty obvious that the least known candidate would attract the most tactical votes.
Don't worry about Macron. You're allowed not to hate him. Theresa May wants him to beat the far right Le Pen. I promise.
0
