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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB/Polling Matters podcast: Is a Tory landslide inevitable? An
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB/Polling Matters podcast: Is a Tory landslide inevitable? And Vive le pollsters!
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Best wishes to @Sunil and @Murali_s.
Would add something poetic or meaningful if I could muster it, but I was very taken by @HurstLlama's little piece.
My condolences, Cap'n Doc, to you and your mum. It can be a real bugger when a major plank in our lives is suddenly removed. At times of such loss there can be no words that bring comfort from a stranger but if you'll accept advice; let the tears fall, as they must, and then, denying nothing and taking your love and memories with you, shout, "Yo ho, my hearties, bring me that horizon!"
I thought that was lovely.
The thing which puzzles me about this question: Why aren't they asking if the UK should Leave/Remain now?
Last time ICM asked, they found 68% in favour of Brexit now, and 21% against.
Welcome back Keiran, never go on holiday again.
We're ruthless like that...
https://twitter.com/Hayley_Barlow/status/857281201098412033
But even with that the fluctuation is MoE around a central point of 45-43; ie people are just reporting how they voted.
Everyone was about to fall asleep with this one horse race and not bother to get out of bed on June 8th to vote. At last we have a poll that tells us we should.
Or it could have picked up a nascent significant swing. But it's difficult to see why that would be.
This looks a lot like the beginning of OSJ ( #operationsavejezza ) to me...
#Tories4Corbyn
This poll isn't going to help Labour in Hartlepool and Torfaen now is it...
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/26/tories-labour-boris-johnson-conservative-election
Johnson was a problem in 2015, and is a problem in 2017 too. But the difference is telling. Back then, he was deemed an asset. Now his own colleagues view him as a liability.
However, it is very bad timing.
Three observations:
1. We have also had a 49:27 and a 49:26, released earlier today
2. We had an 11% lead a few days ago, which turned out to look suspiciously like an outlier
3. When a 16pt lead looks atypically *LOW*, we can see that we're well into "through the looking glass" country, anyway
As far as the triple lock is concerned, it's medium-term unaffordable in a way that comparatively trivial perks like bus passes simply aren't. But we've not had any announcements on this policy yet, or the manifesto. It's possible that the Government might duck the issue and commit to leaving it alone for the next Parliament, but we just don't know yet, do we?
Could a Tory elections scandal be enough of an issue to help wavering Labour voters stick with the party against their own judgements, a 'I hate Corbyn, but we cannot let the Tories destroy Labour, not the baby eating, election stealing Tories' situation.
https://www.betfair.com/sport/politics
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/margaret-thatcher/margaret-thatcher-biography/11908715/margaret-thatcher-biography-general-election-panic.html
Since last July the EU has prepared for hard Brexit and has not suggested soft Brexit at any time. It is the default option and will happen.
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/04/23/why-a-1997-style-landslide-or-even-a-1983-style-landslide-might-not-happen-but-maybe-a-2005-style-majority-of-66-will/
Making no progress would be dispiriting for them, but they've been fighting hard since a near wipeout, I don't think anything will put off the remaining ones.
A look at the contrasting history of France and Germany compared to Britain and the USA between 1914 and 1945 shows why.
I guess the Conservatives really don't want to win Richmond.
He's one of the three Conservative candidates who I simply could not vote for.
Are you hoping for a Labour split and an SDPmk2 to form an alliance with ?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4449220/Branson-bankrolls-Gina-Miller-s-bid-oust-Brexit-MPs.html
My labour fingers crossed for improved polling.
They would bounce up and down but the important thing to do was keep an eye on the average.
And then add 2.5 to the Tories and knock 2.5 off the popular left. I have a feeling they are the same thing this time around.
I'll bang up a spreadsheet to chart the average.
.
Whetber it is enough to save seats, who knows.
I forecast Tory 425, Lab 125, each +/- 25 seats; LD 14 +/- 5 seats.
Purely anecdotal - back when everyone was sharing that constituency map of %age of population who signed the petition to prevent Trump's state visit to the UK, I paid a bit of attention to the counter petition, to allow Trump's visit. The NE as a whole was statistically way higher than I expected as a percentage of population to be in favour of Trump, and Jarrow was by far the most pro-Trump constituency in the UK. I do think there's a lot of kippers up there and it remains to be seen how much of a gateway drug that will be for voting Conservative.
Sunil_Prasannan said:
ELBOW for week ending Sunday 23rd gave the Tories a simple average of 45.67, a lead of 19.89%. That was 9 polls including Norstat.
I wanted to look at the individual polling tables like with the original ELBOW methodology from 2 years back, but sadly my dear old Dad passed away early on Saturday morning, quite suddenly while having his shower. He was 80. I didn't say until now because I was in the denial phase I guess.
Sorry to hear that Sunil. However old or expected it's never easy to accept. It just takes time.
18, 17, 9, 21, 21, 18, 21, 24, 19, 22, 25, 23, 11, 22, 21, 22, 23, 16
mean = 19.6%
We'll get a few more YouGov's a week closer to election day, but we're not returning to the daily tracker.
And I do think some Tories are complacent on what it will look like if the CPS seeks to prosecute a signficant number of Tory MPs. For people making the journey to Tory for the first time, 'evidence' they are the dodgy party could cause hesitance.
Liz Kendall has on the face of it a safe seat. But the tories have a massive 17% ukip vote to squeeze which is almost as big as her majority of 21%.
If you take just 5% from Labour to tory you get Lab 41% Tory 31%, if you then take away half the ukip vote and give it to the tories which is what the polls are showing then you get 39.5% tory for a result of:
Labour 41%
Tory 39.5%
Folks this is NOT a safe Labour seat IF the current polls are right.
Also remember in some places like London UKIP don't have 13% for the tories to squeeze so just like Libdem to tory swings were bigger in seats they held in 2015 so ukip to tory swings will be bigger in seats like this.
I am doing some canvassing on Sat there, as it is our local LD target. We have a great local candidate.
By any normal reckoning Labour are heading towards a thumping.
And that Labour is holding strong where the LibDems should have potential to make gains.
Off-putting is like choosing Mr Goldsmith as your candidate again after all that he's done - one wouldn't want to vote for him.
Shy is when you still intend to vote for X but don't feel able to say so.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/26/alex-salmond-admits-snp-would-use-overwhelming-election-win/
We’d been to Pizza Express and fancied some chocolate back home in front of the telly. “Drinksworld” had just closed so I was running towards Sainsbury’s.
A bloke stops me.
“Sainsbury’s is closed mate. You won’t get any booze there. You’ll have to go to the Co-op.”
“Oh. OK. I wanted chocolate. I won’t bother. “
He says, “I always have something to eat”, and reaches into his rucksack. “I can sell you Kit Kat for a pound. I’ve got a receipt.”
He produces a 4 bar multi-pack of Kit Kat.
Now I’m keen. ‘Have you got two?”
“F*** off! Two for a pound! I’m doing you a favour here mate!”
“No. I meant two for two pounds. Have you got two?”
“What do you think I am? A f***ing sweet shop!”
(I bought the £1 pack and am now enjoying it. A bargain!)
I'm in a good humour at least.. not sure why?
This poll is also the start of the swingback to Labour...... never did understand that.
I'm still happy if Team blue gets a 50-maj.
I'm still not sure that I buy Labour's final total getting as high as 29% though - not when Gordon Brown only managed that, and Ed Miliband finished with just short of 31%. The leadership and economic competence indicators were a better predictor of the 2015 result than all those hung Parliament forecasts based on headline VI, and this time Labour is trailing on both of said indicators by much wider margins.
Is it possible that the polls are over-estimating Labour and under-estimating the Tories yet again? Guess we won't know until the votes are counted.
It's always hard to work out what's happening to the other parties (someone who says "Not interested" might be anything, including a non-voter) but apart from a little middle-class flirtation with LibDems my impression is that it's all UKIP->Con movement.