Jeremy Corbyn's been spotted on the campaign trail reading to children in Bristol.
"It's a bear!", the book exclaims, complete with a suitably shocked expression from the Labour leader.
That's charming.
Uh-uh! An election! A big dark election. We can't go over it. We can't go under it.
Oh no! We've got to go through it.
To be honest primary school teacher is a job I could imagine Corbyn being pretty good at. I did it for a day a few weeks ago and rather enjoyed it myself
Won't the kids be a bit too smart for him?
Special needs classroom assistant, then?
He reminds me of a Lab assistant we had at school....
The result is even worse when you factor in the Independent Labour candidates last time - who polled somewhere around the 14% mark - you'd expect most of their votes to go to Labour, and for Labour to benefit a bit from not appearing so divided this time. The anti-Labour swing is therefore understated in the summary above. So actually the result is pretty catastrophic for Labour, particularly given that the ward is a) in London and b) has a high ethnic population.
It bodes well for the Conservatives in neighbouring Harrow West.
The only caveat is that, left to their own devices, far more Tories would normally turn out for a local by-election. Usually the London Labour Party is able to send in an army of activists to drag their vote to the polls, but perhaps everyone was simply too busy organising their own local campaigns yesterday to make the trip.
Jeremy Corbyn's been spotted on the campaign trail reading to children in Bristol.
"It's a bear!", the book exclaims, complete with a suitably shocked expression from the Labour leader.
Wait until he sees the Tory posters of his comments supporting terrorists.
He actually looks like he's quite good at that.
Hurrah. We have found something Jeremy Corbyn is actually not shit at. Let the bells ring out!! Ticker tape parade time!!! Public holiday!!!! Free hobnobs for all (plain chocolate)!!!!!
This is crazy. Emmanuel Macron may not win the first round - the polls might be wrong, there might be a late swing - but he should surely now be odds-on favourite to do so.
At the very least I would say their prices should be pretty similar. But 1.78 Le Pen and 2.82 Macron IS crazy. From the polls alone you would say Fillon has more chance of overhauling Le Pen, putting her third, than Le Pen overhauling Macron.
We are learning more about those placing the money in the French presidential markets than about the underlying odds.
I loved Yvette Cooper's performance at the head of the last thread. Almost Shakespearean and quite chilling.
I'm sold
I think she'd be a good choice, but I worry for some Labour supporters it will be akin to a dying man crawling in the desert drinking the sand of a mirage, and saying how refreshing the water is.
Meanwhile, the first Welsh poll of the campaign, the latest Welsh Political Barometer poll, is due to be published on Monday. I have just seen the results – and they are dramatic indeed. They will be worth the wait, I can promise you.
By the way, to share the latest from Betfair following my complaint about their cancelling the high odds Tory hold Wokingham bet yesterday afternoon. Bit of a strange reply: they say they can't actually cancel bets without customer agreement, then offer me a free £2 bet as compensation for cancelling it.
Moving a bet from "open" to "void" is a unilateral cancellation on their part (since the overall market is clearly still in play) in my book, and I have responded accordingly. WTS.
Sportsbook? And how high were the odds?
60/1
Was probably supposed to be 1/60. Very poor form to cancel legitimately placed bets though.
All the other shire Tory seats were being put up at 1/200. The 60/1 was only available or a second or two - obviously I went back for more and it was already suspended. Half an hour later it was up again at 1/200. But very bad form on their part, for sure.
This is crazy. Emmanuel Macron may not win the first round - the polls might be wrong, there might be a late swing - but he should surely now be odds-on favourite to do so.
Jeremy Corbyn's been spotted on the campaign trail reading to children in Bristol.
"It's a bear!", the book exclaims, complete with a suitably shocked expression from the Labour leader.
That's charming.
Uh-uh! An election! A big dark election. We can't go over it. We can't go under it.
Oh no! We've got to go through it.
To be honest primary school teacher is a job I could imagine Corbyn being pretty good at. I did it for a day a few weeks ago and rather enjoyed it myself
Won't the kids be a bit too smart for him?
Special needs classroom assistant, then?
He reminds me of a Lab assistant we had at school....
Our lab assistant was a short 50+ woman with a hook nose and a hunch. Universally referred to as Igor. Because kids, eh.
By the way, to share the latest from Betfair following my complaint about their cancelling the high odds Tory hold Wokingham bet yesterday afternoon. Bit of a strange reply: they say they can't actually cancel bets without customer agreement, then offer me a free £2 bet as compensation for cancelling it.
Moving a bet from "open" to "void" is a unilateral cancellation on their part (since the overall market is clearly still in play) in my book, and I have responded accordingly. WTS.
Sportsbook? And how high were the odds?
60/1
Was probably supposed to be 1/60. Very poor form to cancel legitimately placed bets though.
All the other shire Tory seats were being put up at 1/200. The 60/1 was only available or a second or two - obviously I went back for more and it was already suspended. Half an hour later it was up again at 1/200. But very bad form on their part, for sure.
It isn't bad form at all. If they put up prices that mean you can spend £15 backing all the runners to return £100, it is an obvious rick and it is fair enough to void
This is crazy. Emmanuel Macron may not win the first round - the polls might be wrong, there might be a late swing - but he should surely now be odds-on favourite to do so.
Expectation of lots of shy MLP supporters?
French pollsters have a lot of experience of gauging true FN support. They don't usually substantially underestimate it.
I'd have thought that there's at least as great a chance of a late swing to Emmanuel Macron as some voters decide to vote in round one with their head rather than their heart to try to ensure a sane candidate in the last two.
By the way, to share the latest from Betfair following my complaint about their cancelling the high odds Tory hold Wokingham bet yesterday afternoon. Bit of a strange reply: they say they can't actually cancel bets without customer agreement, then offer me a free £2 bet as compensation for cancelling it.
Moving a bet from "open" to "void" is a unilateral cancellation on their part (since the overall market is clearly still in play) in my book, and I have responded accordingly. WTS.
Sportsbook? And how high were the odds?
60/1
Was probably supposed to be 1/60. Very poor form to cancel legitimately placed bets though.
All the other shire Tory seats were being put up at 1/200. The 60/1 was only available or a second or two - obviously I went back for more and it was already suspended. Half an hour later it was up again at 1/200. But very bad form on their part, for sure.
It isn't bad form at all. If they put up prices that mean you can spend £15 backing all the runners to return £100, it is an obvious rick and it is fair enough to void
Bad form to make the mistake and get our hopes up! Yeah, they're fair to void, but no reason they cannot be dragged about a bit by Ian making them go through some hoops - enough people do it, maybe they'll be more careful in future.
Really helpful Alastair but the majority % in the right hand column is the absolute lead so I presume these numbers need to be halved to work out the swing required? At the moment we seem to have a swing of 7% or so, arguably 8% so everything down to Birmingham Yardley is vulnerable?
Allowing for the fact that there will be much higher than average swings, as well as much lower than average swings, everything up to Doncaster North is vulnerable.
Just wish that Houghton & Sunderland South was on the cards (or at least get into recount territory) - big UKIP (8K) vote to squeeze. it would be nice if some other constituency was first to declare.
By the way, to share the latest from Betfair following my complaint about their cancelling the high odds Tory hold Wokingham bet yesterday afternoon. Bit of a strange reply: they say they can't actually cancel bets without customer agreement, then offer me a free £2 bet as compensation for cancelling it.
Moving a bet from "open" to "void" is a unilateral cancellation on their part (since the overall market is clearly still in play) in my book, and I have responded accordingly. WTS.
Sportsbook? And how high were the odds?
60/1
Was probably supposed to be 1/60. Very poor form to cancel legitimately placed bets though.
All the other shire Tory seats were being put up at 1/200. The 60/1 was only available or a second or two - obviously I went back for more and it was already suspended. Half an hour later it was up again at 1/200. But very bad form on their part, for sure.
It isn't bad form at all. If they put up prices that mean you can spend £15 backing all the runners to return £100, it is an obvious rick and it is fair enough to void
Someone should write them a script that triggers a klaxon if the odds on a contest don't make them a profit overall.
It may be a mistake but it was their mistake - and there are plenty of walks of life where a mistake once signed up to just has to be lived with!
This is crazy. Emmanuel Macron may not win the first round - the polls might be wrong, there might be a late swing - but he should surely now be odds-on favourite to do so.
Expectation of lots of shy MLP supporters?
French pollsters have a lot of experience of gauging true FN support. They don't usually substantially underestimate it.
I'd have thought that there's at least as great a chance of a late swing to Emmanuel Macron as some voters decide to vote in round one with their head rather than their heart to try to ensure a sane candidate in the last two.
I suppose the flip side to your first point is that the pollsters don't have a lot of experience of gauging Macron's support. He might smash his polling, but he might under perform badly.
By the way, to share the latest from Betfair following my complaint about their cancelling the high odds Tory hold Wokingham bet yesterday afternoon. Bit of a strange reply: they say they can't actually cancel bets without customer agreement, then offer me a free £2 bet as compensation for cancelling it.
Moving a bet from "open" to "void" is a unilateral cancellation on their part (since the overall market is clearly still in play) in my book, and I have responded accordingly. WTS.
Sportsbook? And how high were the odds?
60/1
Was probably supposed to be 1/60. Very poor form to cancel legitimately placed bets though.
All the other shire Tory seats were being put up at 1/200. The 60/1 was only available or a second or two - obviously I went back for more and it was already suspended. Half an hour later it was up again at 1/200. But very bad form on their part, for sure.
It isn't bad form at all. If they put up prices that mean you can spend £15 backing all the runners to return £100, it is an obvious rick and it is fair enough to void
I can't be bothered to argue the toss over South Holland and the Deepings, where there was a MASSIVE overround.
Paddy has made both my bets 1 penny winners in 50 days anyway.
By the way, to share the latest from Betfair following my complaint about their cancelling the high odds Tory hold Wokingham bet yesterday afternoon. Bit of a strange reply: they say they can't actually cancel bets without customer agreement, then offer me a free £2 bet as compensation for cancelling it.
Moving a bet from "open" to "void" is a unilateral cancellation on their part (since the overall market is clearly still in play) in my book, and I have responded accordingly. WTS.
Sportsbook? And how high were the odds?
60/1
Was probably supposed to be 1/60. Very poor form to cancel legitimately placed bets though.
All the other shire Tory seats were being put up at 1/200. The 60/1 was only available or a second or two - obviously I went back for more and it was already suspended. Half an hour later it was up again at 1/200. But very bad form on their part, for sure.
It isn't bad form at all. If they put up prices that mean you can spend £15 backing all the runners to return £100, it is an obvious rick and it is fair enough to void
If I put £1000 on Corbyn as next PM can I claim that too was an obvious mistake?
By the way, to share the latest from Betfair following my complaint about their cancelling the high odds Tory hold Wokingham bet yesterday afternoon. Bit of a strange reply: they say they can't actually cancel bets without customer agreement, then offer me a free £2 bet as compensation for cancelling it.
Moving a bet from "open" to "void" is a unilateral cancellation on their part (since the overall market is clearly still in play) in my book, and I have responded accordingly. WTS.
Sportsbook? And how high were the odds?
60/1
Was probably supposed to be 1/60. Very poor form to cancel legitimately placed bets though.
All the other shire Tory seats were being put up at 1/200. The 60/1 was only available or a second or two - obviously I went back for more and it was already suspended. Half an hour later it was up again at 1/200. But very bad form on their part, for sure.
It isn't bad form at all. If they put up prices that mean you can spend £15 backing all the runners to return £100, it is an obvious rick and it is fair enough to void
If I put £1000 on Corbyn as next PM can I claim that too was an obvious mistake?
They should let you off if you can provide a doctors certificate
Amazing to think that on UNS alone the Tories could win 20 seats in Wales, Lab at 16, PC at 4. Mind you, I suspect that considering how leave-y Wales was in Labour heartlands and the age demographic of the nation as a whole it could perhaps get even worse for Labour. Then again May may be bringing back unwanted memories of Thatcher. Does anyone know if anyone has a market up on most seats in Wales?
Jeremy Corbyn's been spotted on the campaign trail reading to children in Bristol.
"It's a bear!", the book exclaims, complete with a suitably shocked expression from the Labour leader.
Wait until he sees the Tory posters of his comments supporting terrorists.
He actually looks like he's quite good at that.
Credit where credit is due. Compared with May's picture in school a few weeks ago where she looked like she was regarding the children as some alien life form, that is a pretty fine and endearing picture. Doesn't change anything about his uselessness at running the country but he looks a lot more human than many politicians.
Really helpful Alastair but the majority % in the right hand column is the absolute lead so I presume these numbers need to be halved to work out the swing required? At the moment we seem to have a swing of 7% or so, arguably 8% so everything down to Birmingham Yardley is vulnerable?
There will be greater than average swings in some seats (and less than average swings in others). I would keep looking a lot further down the list before deciding all seats below that point were safe.
I have taken a number of bets on 128th placed Vauxhall falling to the fourth placed Liberal Democrats.
By the way, to share the latest from Betfair following my complaint about their cancelling the high odds Tory hold Wokingham bet yesterday afternoon. Bit of a strange reply: they say they can't actually cancel bets without customer agreement, then offer me a free £2 bet as compensation for cancelling it.
Moving a bet from "open" to "void" is a unilateral cancellation on their part (since the overall market is clearly still in play) in my book, and I have responded accordingly. WTS.
Sportsbook? And how high were the odds?
60/1
Was probably supposed to be 1/60. Very poor form to cancel legitimately placed bets though.
All the other shire Tory seats were being put up at 1/200. The 60/1 was only available or a second or two - obviously I went back for more and it was already suspended. Half an hour later it was up again at 1/200. But very bad form on their part, for sure.
It isn't bad form at all. If they put up prices that mean you can spend £15 backing all the runners to return £100, it is an obvious rick and it is fair enough to void
If I put £1000 on Corbyn as next PM can I claim that too was an obvious mistake?
In fairness to the bookies, this morning I placed a bet on one party getting "over" a given seat count when I meant to place it "under". They cheerfully allowed me to correct it.
The ICM Wales subsample (I know) was Con 47 Lab 18.
Lab on 22 on a combined Midlands/Wales subsample - 28 with Yougov..
PCs long-term strategic mistake was to become so closely identified with the language issue; its such a negative for non-Welsh speakers and stops them ever being able to do an SNP.
Reflecting earlier on yesterday's Dawn Butler fiasco, I recalled watching during last year's referendum footage of a head-to-head debate from the 1975 campaign between Roy Jenkins and Tony Benn (worth checking out on YouTube). Two highly educated, highly intelligent, titans of the Labour Party at the height of their powers. And now we have Dawn Butler. Really, Corbyn is only one of Labour's problems. A fundamental one it is true, but if this is the quality of the people they put up to be interviewed by the media, God help them.
The ICM Wales subsample (I know) was Con 47 Lab 18.
Lab on 22 on a combined Midlands/Wales subsample - 28 with Yougov..
PCs long-term strategic mistake was to become so closely identified with the language issue; its such a negative for non-Welsh speakers and stops them ever being able to do an SNP.
Partly true.
But, despite the exhilaration and hysteria here, the Tories are not going to take the South Wales Valleys seats.
I expect PC will do to WLAB what the SNP did to SLAB ... eventually.
By the way, to share the latest from Betfair following my complaint about their cancelling the high odds Tory hold Wokingham bet yesterday afternoon. Bit of a strange reply: they say they can't actually cancel bets without customer agreement, then offer me a free £2 bet as compensation for cancelling it.
Moving a bet from "open" to "void" is a unilateral cancellation on their part (since the overall market is clearly still in play) in my book, and I have responded accordingly. WTS.
Sportsbook? And how high were the odds?
60/1
Was probably supposed to be 1/60. Very poor form to cancel legitimately placed bets though.
All the other shire Tory seats were being put up at 1/200. The 60/1 was only available or a second or two - obviously I went back for more and it was already suspended. Half an hour later it was up again at 1/200. But very bad form on their part, for sure.
It isn't bad form at all. If they put up prices that mean you can spend £15 backing all the runners to return £100, it is an obvious rick and it is fair enough to void
If I put £1000 on Corbyn as next PM can I claim that too was an obvious mistake?
In fairness to the bookies, this morning I placed a bet on one party getting "over" a given seat count when I meant to place it "under". They cheerfully allowed me to correct it.
Which is good. And to be honest if BF had contacted me, directly or by email, and explained there'd been some kind of mistake and they wanted to void the bet, offering me something small but reasonable by way of recompense, I would probably have been a contented customer. Just to void the bet with no contact or explanation, and then to try and dodge round the issue in their first response, is poor customer service, despite the offer of a free £2.
By the way, to share the latest from Betfair following my complaint about their cancelling the high odds Tory hold Wokingham bet yesterday afternoon. Bit of a strange reply: they say they can't actually cancel bets without customer agreement, then offer me a free £2 bet as compensation for cancelling it.
Moving a bet from "open" to "void" is a unilateral cancellation on their part (since the overall market is clearly still in play) in my book, and I have responded accordingly. WTS.
Sportsbook? And how high were the odds?
60/1
Was probably supposed to be 1/60. Very poor form to cancel legitimately placed bets though.
All the other shire Tory seats were being put up at 1/200. The 60/1 was only available or a second or two - obviously I went back for more and it was already suspended. Half an hour later it was up again at 1/200. But very bad form on their part, for sure.
It isn't bad form at all. If they put up prices that mean you can spend £15 backing all the runners to return £100, it is an obvious rick and it is fair enough to void
Someone should write them a script that triggers a klaxon if the odds on a contest don't make them a profit overall.
It may be a mistake but it was their mistake - and there are plenty of walks of life where a mistake once signed up to just has to be lived with!
Yes, but if bookmaking was one of them then you'd have to live with much slower pricing updates and/or lower minimum stakes because they'd be terrified of a "fat finger" error costing them a fortune, and systems would be more cumbersome to avoid error at the expense of speed. And political betting would be back of the queue just about - it's not their most lucrative area.
Look, I got some money down on the blues at 100-1 in Surrey Heath and Suffolk Coastal. I knew damned well that it was an obvious PaddyPower/Betfair error but hoped against hope they wouldn't spot it. They did and it's a fair cop.
The one they haven't cancelled yet - and I think shouldn't - is Richmond Park. That wasn't fat finger error leading to a ludicrous and obvious under-rounding. It was pricing based on 2015 result; LDs were much longer than they should be, but Tories were much shorter so you couldn't cover all conceivable outcomes and make a handsome profit (although arguably you could cover on different markets).
@krishgm: Perhaps real reason for this snap election is the Budget 17 fiasco - they realise they need to drop commitments on both spending and tax
Judging by the conversations I have had in recent weeks with people who work in the NHS, then this at least one of the reasons. So much trouble coming down the tracks.
On predictions and ground data and electoral commission - worth reading this from Dom Cummings ref the Brexit referendum - wonder if any party has learned from last summer ?
"Do not believe the rubbish peddled by Farage and the leave.EU team about social media. E.g. a) They boasted publicly that they paid hundreds of thousands of pounds for over half a million Facebook ‘Likes’ without realising that b) Facebook’s algorithms no longer optimised news feeds for Likes (it is optimised for paid advertising). Leave.EU wasted hundreds of thousands just as many big companies spent millions building armies of Likes that were rendered largely irrelevant by Facebook’s algorithmic changes. This is just one of their blunders. Vote Leave put our money into targeted paid adverts, not buying Likes to spin stories to gullible hacks, MPs, and donors. Media organisations should have someone on the political staff who is a specialist in data or have a route to talk to their organisation’s own data science teams to help spot snake oil merchants."
Sir Norfolk, shh. [And I agree, that should stand].
To be honest, although I'd rather have my whopping great big win, I think a free bet of the stake's value is alright. They did completely get the odds wrong, there were four or five options and most were 33/1, with the Conservatives 60/1.
Was probably supposed to be 1/60. Very poor form to cancel legitimately placed bets though.
All the other shire Tory seats were being put up at 1/200. The 60/1 was only available or a second or two - obviously I went back for more and it was already suspended. Half an hour later it was up again at 1/200. But very bad form on their part, for sure.
It isn't bad form at all. If they put up prices that mean you can spend £15 backing all the runners to return £100, it is an obvious rick and it is fair enough to void
Someone should write them a script that triggers a klaxon if the odds on a contest don't make them a profit overall.
It may be a mistake but it was their mistake - and there are plenty of walks of life where a mistake once signed up to just has to be lived with!
Yes, but if bookmaking was one of them then you'd have to live with much slower pricing updates and/or lower minimum stakes because they'd be terrified of a "fat finger" error costing them a fortune, and systems would be more cumbersome to avoid error at the expense of speed. And political betting would be back of the queue just about - it's not their most lucrative area.
Look, I got some money down on the blues at 100-1 in Surrey Heath and Suffolk Coastal. I knew damned well that it was an obvious PaddyPower/Betfair error but hoped against hope they wouldn't spot it. They did and it's a fair cop.
The one they haven't cancelled yet - and I think shouldn't - is Richmond Park. That wasn't fat finger error leading to a ludicrous and obvious under-rounding. It was pricing based on 2015 result; LDs were much longer than they should be, but Tories were much shorter so you couldn't cover all conceivable outcomes and make a handsome profit (although arguably you could cover on different markets).
I very much doubt there is a speed premium in getting prices up quickly on the GE result in Wokingham and Woking! It must have been the fact that anyone bet on it at all that alerted them to the mistake. That, or they have someone reading PB.
If they employed any of us for a couple of days I am pretty sure we could save them embarrassments like this. All you'd need is the knowledge and common sense of the average PB'er (noting that every average has its outliers) and a list of last time's results as a safety net.
Len elected on 6% of the vote. The people who are happiest spent the year after the last GE bleating that the Tories only 'actually' got 26% of the vote.
On predictions and ground data and electoral commission - worth reading this from Dom Cummings ref the Brexit referendum - wonder if any party has learned from last summer ?
"Do not believe the rubbish peddled by Farage and the leave.EU team about social media. E.g. a) They boasted publicly that they paid hundreds of thousands of pounds for over half a million Facebook ‘Likes’ without realising that b) Facebook’s algorithms no longer optimised news feeds for Likes (it is optimised for paid advertising). Leave.EU wasted hundreds of thousands just as many big companies spent millions building armies of Likes that were rendered largely irrelevant by Facebook’s algorithmic changes. This is just one of their blunders. Vote Leave put our money into targeted paid adverts, not buying Likes to spin stories to gullible hacks, MPs, and donors. Media organisations should have someone on the political staff who is a specialist in data or have a route to talk to their organisation’s own data science teams to help spot snake oil merchants."
Interesting in light of the news that Leave.EU is being investigated over campaign spending.
On predictions and ground data and electoral commission - worth reading this from Dom Cummings ref the Brexit referendum - wonder if any party has learned from last summer ?
"Do not believe the rubbish peddled by Farage and the leave.EU team about social media. E.g. a) They boasted publicly that they paid hundreds of thousands of pounds for over half a million Facebook ‘Likes’ without realising that b) Facebook’s algorithms no longer optimised news feeds for Likes (it is optimised for paid advertising). Leave.EU wasted hundreds of thousands just as many big companies spent millions building armies of Likes that were rendered largely irrelevant by Facebook’s algorithmic changes. This is just one of their blunders. Vote Leave put our money into targeted paid adverts, not buying Likes to spin stories to gullible hacks, MPs, and donors. Media organisations should have someone on the political staff who is a specialist in data or have a route to talk to their organisation’s own data science teams to help spot snake oil merchants."
Interesting in light of the news that Leave.EU is being investigated over campaign spending.
It also highlights the fact that campaign spending doesn't always correlate with results.
Jeremy Corbyn's been spotted on the campaign trail reading to children in Bristol.
"It's a bear!", the book exclaims, complete with a suitably shocked expression from the Labour leader.
Wait until he sees the Tory posters of his comments supporting terrorists.
He actually looks like he's quite good at that.
Credit where credit is due. Compared with May's picture in school a few weeks ago where she looked like she was regarding the children as some alien life form, that is a pretty fine and endearing picture. Doesn't change anything about his uselessness at running the country but he looks a lot more human than many politicians.
Parents have a huge advantage over non-parents when it comes to simulating interest in other peoples' children. And then there's always this, before we get too carried away with the lovable old buffer narrative; I imagine the press and the tories have a pretty clear idea which buttons to push to reproduce the effect.
By the way, to share the latest from Betfair following my complaint about their cancelling the high odds Tory hold Wokingham bet yesterday afternoon. Bit of a strange reply: they say they can't actually cancel bets without customer agreement, then offer me a free £2 bet as compensation for cancelling it.
Moving a bet from "open" to "void" is a unilateral cancellation on their part (since the overall market is clearly still in play) in my book, and I have responded accordingly. WTS.
Sportsbook? And how high were the odds?
60/1
Was probably supposed to be 1/60. Very poor form to cancel legitimately placed bets though.
All the other shire Tory seats were being put up at 1/200. The 60/1 was only available or a second or two - obviously I went back for more and it was already suspended. Half an hour later it was up again at 1/200. But very bad form on their part, for sure.
It isn't bad form at all. If they put up prices that mean you can spend £15 backing all the runners to return £100, it is an obvious rick and it is fair enough to void
If I put £1000 on Corbyn as next PM can I claim that too was an obvious mistake?
They should let you off if you can provide a doctors certificate
Having to prove insanity twice over seems a bit steep.
On predictions and ground data and electoral commission - worth reading this from Dom Cummings ref the Brexit referendum - wonder if any party has learned from last summer ?
"Do not believe the rubbish peddled by Farage and the leave.EU team about social media. E.g. a) They boasted publicly that they paid hundreds of thousands of pounds for over half a million Facebook ‘Likes’ without realising that b) Facebook’s algorithms no longer optimised news feeds for Likes (it is optimised for paid advertising). Leave.EU wasted hundreds of thousands just as many big companies spent millions building armies of Likes that were rendered largely irrelevant by Facebook’s algorithmic changes. This is just one of their blunders. Vote Leave put our money into targeted paid adverts, not buying Likes to spin stories to gullible hacks, MPs, and donors. Media organisations should have someone on the political staff who is a specialist in data or have a route to talk to their organisation’s own data science teams to help spot snake oil merchants."
Interesting in light of the news that Leave.EU is being investigated over campaign spending.
Leave.EU was Farage's mob - "vote leave" was Cummings and the official "leave" campaign.
Jeremy Corbyn's been spotted on the campaign trail reading to children in Bristol.
"It's a bear!", the book exclaims, complete with a suitably shocked expression from the Labour leader.
Wait until he sees the Tory posters of his comments supporting terrorists.
He actually looks like he's quite good at that.
Credit where credit is due. Compared with May's picture in school a few weeks ago where she looked like she was regarding the children as some alien life form, that is a pretty fine and endearing picture. Doesn't change anything about his uselessness at running the country but he looks a lot more human than many politicians.
Parents have a huge advantage over non-parents when it comes to simulating interest in other peoples' children. And then there's always this, before we get too carried away with the lovable old buffer narrative; I imagine the press and the tories have a pretty clear idea which buttons to push to reproduce the effect.
The bookmakers are still all too generous with their LibDem over/unders.
Let's put this in context for a moment. If things go really, really well for the LibDems, they might get 18%. Sod it, say 20%. (That's 60 or 70% more votes than their current vote share predicts.)
That still won't get them the 28 or so seats the over/unders suggest. Continue to sell.
On predictions and ground data and electoral commission - worth reading this from Dom Cummings ref the Brexit referendum - wonder if any party has learned from last summer ?
"Do not believe the rubbish peddled by Farage and the leave.EU team about social media. E.g. a) They boasted publicly that they paid hundreds of thousands of pounds for over half a million Facebook ‘Likes’ without realising that b) Facebook’s algorithms no longer optimised news feeds for Likes (it is optimised for paid advertising). Leave.EU wasted hundreds of thousands just as many big companies spent millions building armies of Likes that were rendered largely irrelevant by Facebook’s algorithmic changes. This is just one of their blunders. Vote Leave put our money into targeted paid adverts, not buying Likes to spin stories to gullible hacks, MPs, and donors. Media organisations should have someone on the political staff who is a specialist in data or have a route to talk to their organisation’s own data science teams to help spot snake oil merchants."
Interesting in light of the news that Leave.EU is being investigated over campaign spending.
Well, they were throwing it down the drain paying for likes anyway.
Given she seems to be polling low 20s... Not ridiculous she would drop under. Imo polls more likely to be understating her... But worth a punt i thought.
Apparently she can't be the SNP candidate, but if she doesn't stand, she doesn't get her loser payoff.
Local Tories are begging her to stand...
Is it still the deal that you get more for being ousted than for retiring? Seems to create the wrong incentives.
It did used to be the case in a very extreme way - I think they reformed it, but maybe not eliminating entirely. I seem to remember a few MPs did a sort of reverse chicken-run to deliberately unwinnable seats so they'd technically be defeated rather than retiring. And I suspect there was more than an element of that when John Browne got the boot from the Tories years ago and stood in Winchester as an Indy (although he was also just very annoyed).
@krishgm: Perhaps real reason for this snap election is the Budget 17 fiasco - they realise they need to drop commitments on both spending and tax
Judging by the conversations I have had in recent weeks with people who work in the NHS, then this at least one of the reasons. So much trouble coming down the tracks.
I think that correct. The next 5 years are going to be a very bumpy ride. Theresa wants to not be under threat from her backbenches of any faction. A clearing the decks manifesto is what suits. Some perogative power over Brexit so she can not beholden to the Lords is pretty much the only definite.
The bookmakers are still all too generous with their LibDem over/unders.
Let's put this in context for a moment. If things go really, really well for the LibDems, they might get 18%. Sod it, say 20%. (That's 60 or 70% more votes than their current vote share predicts.)
That still won't get them the 28 or so seats the over/unders suggest. Continue to sell.
Paddy Power @ 10-1 for 10-19 seats was a wonderland price. But the bookie didn't want all the money I offered
The bookmakers are still all too generous with their LibDem over/unders.
Let's put this in context for a moment. If things go really, really well for the LibDems, they might get 18%. Sod it, say 20%. (That's 60 or 70% more votes than their current vote share predicts.)
That still won't get them the 28 or so seats the over/unders suggest. Continue to sell.
I'm still being astonished by the fact you can cover 0-39 seats for profit.
The bookmakers are still all too generous with their LibDem over/unders.
Let's put this in context for a moment. If things go really, really well for the LibDems, they might get 18%. Sod it, say 20%. (That's 60 or 70% more votes than their current vote share predicts.)
That still won't get them the 28 or so seats the over/unders suggest. Continue to sell.
I'm still being astonished by the fact you can cover 0-39 seats for profit.
The bookmakers are still all too generous with their LibDem over/unders.
Let's put this in context for a moment. If things go really, really well for the LibDems, they might get 18%. Sod it, say 20%. (That's 60 or 70% more votes than their current vote share predicts.)
That still won't get them the 28 or so seats the over/unders suggest. Continue to sell.
22% got them 62 seats in 2005? 18% got them 52 seats in 2001? 16.8% got them 46 seats in 1997.
On predictions and ground data and electoral commission - worth reading this from Dom Cummings ref the Brexit referendum - wonder if any party has learned from last summer ?
"Do not believe the rubbish peddled by Farage and the leave.EU team about social media. E.g. a) They boasted publicly that they paid hundreds of thousands of pounds for over half a million Facebook ‘Likes’ without realising that b) Facebook’s algorithms no longer optimised news feeds for Likes (it is optimised for paid advertising). Leave.EU wasted hundreds of thousands just as many big companies spent millions building armies of Likes that were rendered largely irrelevant by Facebook’s algorithmic changes. This is just one of their blunders. Vote Leave put our money into targeted paid adverts, not buying Likes to spin stories to gullible hacks, MPs, and donors. Media organisations should have someone on the political staff who is a specialist in data or have a route to talk to their organisation’s own data science teams to help spot snake oil merchants."
Interesting in light of the news that Leave.EU is being investigated over campaign spending.
In Tim Shipman's All Out War, Cummings comes across as a brilliant yet slightly scary, all-seeing, all-knowing genius. Like him or hate him, he's a hell of a man to have on your team.
The bookmakers are still all too generous with their LibDem over/unders.
Let's put this in context for a moment. If things go really, really well for the LibDems, they might get 18%. Sod it, say 20%. (That's 60 or 70% more votes than their current vote share predicts.)
That still won't get them the 28 or so seats the over/unders suggest. Continue to sell.
It does depend very much on whether you think Labour seats are vulnerable, and that depends on things like whether you think all Coalition sins are now forgiven in the universities as the swings required are enormous on 2015 (but not on 2010). Recent elections have shown that once you get into a corridor of vaguely viable polling shares (but let's not forget the Lib Dems aren't at those levels today) the correlation between LD votes and seats is weak - it's where the votes come.
But I do tend to agree. I think Farron and his team would bite your hand off if you offered 28 MPs and some promising second places - it's not back to the old days, but it's back in the game.
The bookmakers are still all too generous with their LibDem over/unders.
Let's put this in context for a moment. If things go really, really well for the LibDems, they might get 18%. Sod it, say 20%. (That's 60 or 70% more votes than their current vote share predicts.)
That still won't get them the 28 or so seats the over/unders suggest. Continue to sell.
Yes and no. This campaign more than most has the potential to surprise. Which doesn't mean that it will, just that it might.
People do their sums on UNS, which never worked for the LibDems, and won't work for any party this time.
And it stands to reason that a change in one election can be reversed in the next. Which doesn't say that it will, and there will always be seats where local factors make this impossible. But the 18.5 seat midpoint on Betfair for the LibDems looks potentially value to me.
The election hangs on whether May's stance on Brexit plus the snap election actually win positive support for the Tories - their poll lead until now having largely been the consequence of Labour's repellance. Tbf there is early anecdotal evidence that this might be the case - but it's still too early to say.
The bookmakers are still all too generous with their LibDem over/unders.
Let's put this in context for a moment. If things go really, really well for the LibDems, they might get 18%. Sod it, say 20%. (That's 60 or 70% more votes than their current vote share predicts.)
That still won't get them the 28 or so seats the over/unders suggest. Continue to sell.
22% got them 62 seats in 2005? 18% got them 52 seats in 2001? 16.8% got them 46 seats in 1997.
1st time incumbency and some huge margins to make up vs a party in the forties, makes the leavey SW tough.
The bookmakers are still all too generous with their LibDem over/unders.
Let's put this in context for a moment. If things go really, really well for the LibDems, they might get 18%. Sod it, say 20%. (That's 60 or 70% more votes than their current vote share predicts.)
That still won't get them the 28 or so seats the over/unders suggest. Continue to sell.
I'm still being astonished by the fact you can cover 0-39 seats for profit.
Yet BATH is odds against !
Very remainery, majority not that large...
Also LibDem vote in 2015 negatively affected by Don Foster stepping down. I think it's one of two or three odds on LibDem gains from the conservatives
Comments
Mr. B2, presumably that was your stake? I had a little more on, and shan't turn down some free money.
Le Pen @ 8-1, 10-1 (SkyBet, Betfair Sportsbook) sub 20
Reback your stake at 20-30% @ 1-3 if you're feeling cautious !
Must be around a 99% chance or higher she gets 0-30%.
I'm sold
Pass the popcorn chaps.
Labour looking for
candidatessacrificial lambshttp://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2017/04/21/the-2017-general-election-some-first-thoughts-and-a-first-seat-projection/
Edited extra bit: ah, both are Exchange.
Cheers, backed.
I have backed
£12.50 @ 8-1, £5 @ 10-1 20%-
£100 @ 1-3 20.01-30%
Which is probably overly cautious. Though the rest of my French book is in utterly stonking shape if Le Pen does poll under 20% so I don't mind.
So +50 0-20%
+15.83 20-30%
-117.50 30.01%+ (Which I think is about as likely as Corbyn winning)
I'd have thought that there's at least as great a chance of a late swing to Emmanuel Macron as some voters decide to vote in round one with their head rather than their heart to try to ensure a sane candidate in the last two.
Lab on 22 on a combined Midlands/Wales subsample - 28 with Yougov..
It may be a mistake but it was their mistake - and there are plenty of walks of life where a mistake once signed up to just has to be lived with!
Paddy has made both my bets 1 penny winners in 50 days anyway.
20.00 Percent or Lower +2.8pts
20.01 - 30.0 Percent +1pt
30 Percent or more -4pts
But, despite the exhilaration and hysteria here, the Tories are not going to take the South Wales Valleys seats.
I expect PC will do to WLAB what the SNP did to SLAB ... eventually.
Look, I got some money down on the blues at 100-1 in Surrey Heath and Suffolk Coastal. I knew damned well that it was an obvious PaddyPower/Betfair error but hoped against hope they wouldn't spot it. They did and it's a fair cop.
The one they haven't cancelled yet - and I think shouldn't - is Richmond Park. That wasn't fat finger error leading to a ludicrous and obvious under-rounding. It was pricing based on 2015 result; LDs were much longer than they should be, but Tories were much shorter so you couldn't cover all conceivable outcomes and make a handsome profit (although arguably you could cover on different markets).
https://dominiccummings.wordpress.com/2016/10/29/on-the-referendum-20-the-campaign-physics-and-data-science-vote-leaves-voter-intention-collection-system-vics-now-available-for-all/
"Do not believe the rubbish peddled by Farage and the leave.EU team about social media. E.g. a) They boasted publicly that they paid hundreds of thousands of pounds for over half a million Facebook ‘Likes’ without realising that b) Facebook’s algorithms no longer optimised news feeds for Likes (it is optimised for paid advertising). Leave.EU wasted hundreds of thousands just as many big companies spent millions building armies of Likes that were rendered largely irrelevant by Facebook’s algorithmic changes. This is just one of their blunders. Vote Leave put our money into targeted paid adverts, not buying Likes to spin stories to gullible hacks, MPs, and donors. Media organisations should have someone on the political staff who is a specialist in data or have a route to talk to their organisation’s own data science teams to help spot snake oil merchants."
The highlighted area is Westminster Banff and Buchan, the thin strip with the black outline is the Holyrood constituency.
Sir Norfolk, shh. [And I agree, that should stand].
To be honest, although I'd rather have my whopping great big win, I think a free bet of the stake's value is alright. They did completely get the odds wrong, there were four or five options and most were 33/1, with the Conservatives 60/1.
If they employed any of us for a couple of days I am pretty sure we could save them embarrassments like this. All you'd need is the knowledge and common sense of the average PB'er (noting that every average has its outliers) and a list of last time's results as a safety net.
Colour me unshocked.
An investigation has begun by the Electoral Commission into the referendum spending return of campaign group Leave.EU.
The commission is looking into whether one or more donations accepted by the group was "impermissible".
http://news.sky.com/story/leaveeu-campaign-investigated-over-referendum-campaign-donations-10845495
Local Tories are begging her to stand...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ipYmMt1i84
It's everyone's fault but his own.
EDIT: No wonder he never learns.
Let's put this in context for a moment. If things go really, really well for the LibDems, they might get 18%. Sod it, say 20%. (That's 60 or 70% more votes than their current vote share predicts.)
That still won't get them the 28 or so seats the over/unders suggest. Continue to sell.
Given she seems to be polling low 20s... Not ridiculous she would drop under.
Imo polls more likely to be understating her... But worth a punt i thought.
It did used to be the case in a very extreme way - I think they reformed it, but maybe not eliminating entirely. I seem to remember a few MPs did a sort of reverse chicken-run to deliberately unwinnable seats so they'd technically be defeated rather than retiring. And I suspect there was more than an element of that when John Browne got the boot from the Tories years ago and stood in Winchester as an Indy (although he was also just very annoyed).
Very remainery, majority not that large...
18% got them 52 seats in 2001?
16.8% got them 46 seats in 1997.
But I do tend to agree. I think Farron and his team would bite your hand off if you offered 28 MPs and some promising second places - it's not back to the old days, but it's back in the game.
People do their sums on UNS, which never worked for the LibDems, and won't work for any party this time.
And it stands to reason that a change in one election can be reversed in the next. Which doesn't say that it will, and there will always be seats where local factors make this impossible. But the 18.5 seat midpoint on Betfair for the LibDems looks potentially value to me.
The election hangs on whether May's stance on Brexit plus the snap election actually win positive support for the Tories - their poll lead until now having largely been the consequence of Labour's repellance. Tbf there is early anecdotal evidence that this might be the case - but it's still too early to say.
Bath is by far the easiest seat.
If they get 40 or more I shall be annoyed.
Pass me the sick bag