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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Gloomy local by-election news for LAB in the week a General El

SystemSystem Posts: 12,114
edited April 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Gloomy local by-election news for LAB in the week a General Election was called

Blacon on Chester West and Chester (Lab defence, resignation of sitting member) Result: Labour 1,556 (59% +1%), Conservative 574 (22% +4%), Independent 434 (16%, no candidate at last election), Liberal Democrat 70 (3%, no candidate at last election) Labour HOLD with a majority of 982 (37%) on a swing of 1.5% from Lab to Con (notional swing of 1% from Lab to Lib Dem, 0.5% from Lib Dem to Con)

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Comments

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    first unlike Labour
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    21st Century Socialism sweeping the nation?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,179
    Third like Labour
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    Thanks for this, Mr. Hayfield.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The swing in Chester may be on the low side but since Labour's majority is less than 100 it probably won't help them.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    Gloomy? They won one easily! Doing fine.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Tories gaining Harrow Kenton East from Labour? - So much for the predicted two safe holds.
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,561
    I know it's only 8 seats but if you look at how many votes it's taken to elect a cllr for each party, you get:

    Tory - 1060
    Lib Dem - 1090
    Labour - 4137
    Other - infinite

    That's remarkable vote efficiency for the Tories and Lib Dems (who are usually hit badly by this measure) and hopeless for Labour. Looks like we can't find a good indicator for Labour at the moment, but if they stack up lots of votes while losing seats like this then they are in yet deeper trouble.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Tissue_Price said:

    MTimT said:

    ToryJim said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/855421100209184768

    Unite has lost the plot.
    Unite split.
    Untie frayed knot (5)
    Debased currency is going to be spent? (5)
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    such a good swing to the tories in london could be an omen for utter meltdown.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,111
    10th like Labour, in a nine horse race...
  • Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    Thanks for the thread Mr H
    Thank you to Mr Meeks for the list of Lab seats and their majorities.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    tpfkar said:

    I know it's only 8 seats but if you look at how many votes it's taken to elect a cllr for each party, you get:

    Tory - 1060
    Lib Dem - 1090
    Labour - 4137
    Other - infinite

    That's remarkable vote efficiency for the Tories and Lib Dems (who are usually hit badly by this measure) and hopeless for Labour. Looks like we can't find a good indicator for Labour at the moment, but if they stack up lots of votes while losing seats like this then they are in yet deeper trouble.

    Lib Dems are usually inefficient on a national level, but is that true on a local level usually? Locally the "pothole party" has long been able to punch above its weight.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    The Kenton East result is horrific for Labour. Representative of a 20+ lead for the Tories nationally. The polls do not look wrong.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    Thanks for the thread Mr H
    Thank you to Mr Meeks for the list of Lab seats and their majorities.

    I'll post it again on this thread for those that want to muse about which seats are vulnerable and which are safe:

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bygi8eZw-4q1Tm54TU02a3E3R0U/view
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    AndyJS said:

    The swing in Chester may be on the low side but since Labour's majority is less than 100 it probably won't help them.

    Quite remainy too.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    Thanks for the thread Mr H
    Thank you to Mr Meeks for the list of Lab seats and their majorities.

    I'll post it again on this thread for those that want to muse about which seats are vulnerable and which are safe:

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bygi8eZw-4q1Tm54TU02a3E3R0U/view
    Something we should have learnt from both the US and Scotland 2015 is that there is no such thing as a firewall !
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,939
    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    Thanks for the thread Mr H
    Thank you to Mr Meeks for the list of Lab seats and their majorities.

    Looking at that list, in normal times it ought to be bloody difficult for the Tories to get anywhere past 15 gains from Labour.

    However, in the current situation, Labour has close to 50 seats that look vulnerable.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Pulpstar said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    Thanks for the thread Mr H
    Thank you to Mr Meeks for the list of Lab seats and their majorities.

    I'll post it again on this thread for those that want to muse about which seats are vulnerable and which are safe:

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bygi8eZw-4q1Tm54TU02a3E3R0U/view
    Something we should have learnt from both the US and Scotland 2015 is that there is no such thing as a firewall !
    Oh I don't know, there's a large gap between Knowsley and Liverpool Walton.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    SandyRentool said:

    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    Thanks for the thread Mr H
    Thank you to Mr Meeks for the list of Lab seats and their majorities.

    Looking at that list, in normal times it ought to be bloody difficult for the Tories to get anywhere past 15 gains from Labour.

    However, in the current situation, Labour has close to 50 seats that look vulnerable.
    *imitates Bruce Forsyth"

    Higher! Higher!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Pulpstar said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    Thanks for the thread Mr H
    Thank you to Mr Meeks for the list of Lab seats and their majorities.

    I'll post it again on this thread for those that want to muse about which seats are vulnerable and which are safe:

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bygi8eZw-4q1Tm54TU02a3E3R0U/view
    Something we should have learnt from both the US and Scotland 2015 is that there is no such thing as a firewall !
    Oh I don't know, there's a large gap between Knowsley and Liverpool Walton.
    No incumbency in Walton though.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2017
    murali_s said:

    The Kenton East result is horrific for Labour. Representative of a 20+ lead for the Tories nationally. The polls do not look wrong.

    The Tories must fancy their chances in neighbouring Harrow West which they haven't won since 1992 (although it was a very safe seat in those days). The 3 most Tory wards were moving into Ruislip/Northwood in 2010 which is why it's still Labour.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    AlastairMeeks said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    Thanks for the thread Mr H
    Thank you to Mr Meeks for the list of Lab seats and their majorities.

    Looking at that list, in normal times it ought to be bloody difficult for the Tories to get anywhere past 15 gains from Labour.

    However, in the current situation, Labour has close to 50 seats that look vulnerable.
    *imitates Bruce Forsyth"

    Higher! Higher!
    80
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    https://twitter.com/UniteforLen/status/855431009919279107
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,939
    Tissue_Price said:

    https://twitter.com/UniteforLen/status/855431009919279107

    When does the count get underway?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,179
    Len has really stuffed his opponent.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,442
    Pulpstar said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    Thanks for the thread Mr H
    Thank you to Mr Meeks for the list of Lab seats and their majorities.

    I'll post it again on this thread for those that want to muse about which seats are vulnerable and which are safe:

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bygi8eZw-4q1Tm54TU02a3E3R0U/view
    Something we should have learnt from both the US and Scotland 2015 is that there is no such thing as a firewall !
    Number #31 looks a little suspicious :)
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Pulpstar said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Pulpstar said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    Thanks for the thread Mr H
    Thank you to Mr Meeks for the list of Lab seats and their majorities.

    I'll post it again on this thread for those that want to muse about which seats are vulnerable and which are safe:

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bygi8eZw-4q1Tm54TU02a3E3R0U/view
    Something we should have learnt from both the US and Scotland 2015 is that there is no such thing as a firewall !
    Oh I don't know, there's a large gap between Knowsley and Liverpool Walton.
    No incumbency in Walton though.
    Unless... no, it's not possible. But Burnham has said he won't stand - what if he loses his Mayoral?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    Mr. Glenn, nonsense, comrade. There is no opponent. A non-person has been suspended from the party. There is no other news.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    edited April 2017
    Tissue_Price said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Pulpstar said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    Thanks for the thread Mr H
    Thank you to Mr Meeks for the list of Lab seats and their majorities.

    I'll post it again on this thread for those that want to muse about which seats are vulnerable and which are safe:

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bygi8eZw-4q1Tm54TU02a3E3R0U/view
    Something we should have learnt from both the US and Scotland 2015 is that there is no such thing as a firewall !
    Oh I don't know, there's a large gap between Knowsley and Liverpool Walton.
    No incumbency in Walton though.
    Unless... no, it's not possible. But Burnham has said he won't stand - what if he loses his Mayoral?
    He won't. Would be funny if he did not though.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    MarkHopkins said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    Thanks for the thread Mr H
    Thank you to Mr Meeks for the list of Lab seats and their majorities.

    Looking at that list, in normal times it ought to be bloody difficult for the Tories to get anywhere past 15 gains from Labour.

    However, in the current situation, Labour has close to 50 seats that look vulnerable.
    *imitates Bruce Forsyth"

    Higher! Higher!
    80
    I'll just point out that Teresa Pearce resigned from the shadow Cabinet to spend more time focusing on her constituency. Her constituency is Erith & Thamesmead, number 108 on that list.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    SandyRentool said:

    When does the count get underway?

    The count is nearly finished. They're just working out what the result in Cook County needs to be.
  • Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    MarkHopkins said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    Thanks for the thread Mr H
    Thank you to Mr Meeks for the list of Lab seats and their majorities.

    Looking at that list, in normal times it ought to be bloody difficult for the Tories to get anywhere past 15 gains from Labour.

    However, in the current situation, Labour has close to 50 seats that look vulnerable.
    *imitates Bruce Forsyth"

    Higher! Higher!
    80
    I was going to say 80, but there's nothing for a pair.

    PB audience responds "Not in this game!"

  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,381
    Tissue_Price said:

    https://twitter.com/UniteforLen/status/855431009919279107

    What else has he won!?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    Tissue_Price said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Pulpstar said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    Thanks for the thread Mr H
    Thank you to Mr Meeks for the list of Lab seats and their majorities.

    I'll post it again on this thread for those that want to muse about which seats are vulnerable and which are safe:

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bygi8eZw-4q1Tm54TU02a3E3R0U/view
    Something we should have learnt from both the US and Scotland 2015 is that there is no such thing as a firewall !
    Oh I don't know, there's a large gap between Knowsley and Liverpool Walton.
    No incumbency in Walton though.
    Unless... no, it's not possible. But Burnham has said he won't stand - what if he loses his Mayoral?
    I bloody well hope not, have £300 on him !

    People hopefully know they're not voting for Corbyn in the mayorals.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,381
    Len has deleted that tweet!
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Oooh, the Len tweet has vanished. Extra bonus skulduggery points. Several banana republics cringing in embarrassment at the spectacle.
  • RhubarbRhubarb Posts: 359
    Gallowgate said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    https://twitter.com/UniteforLen/status/855431009919279107

    What else has he won!?
    A cuddly toy?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    Would Coyne be able to get rid of Corbyn before the GE ?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    https://twitter.com/WriteYouMedia/status/855433635335372804
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    Tissue_Price said:

    Oooh, the Len tweet has vanished. Extra bonus skulduggery points. Several banana republics cringing in embarrassment at the spectacle.

    What was the tweet? I can't see Twitter at work.
  • TypoTypo Posts: 195
    Why is that trade union heavyweights seem to have short one-syllable names like Len and Bob and Mick? Is there a finishing school somewhere?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,207
    AlastairMeeks said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    Thanks for the thread Mr H
    Thank you to Mr Meeks for the list of Lab seats and their majorities.

    Looking at that list, in normal times it ought to be bloody difficult for the Tories to get anywhere past 15 gains from Labour.

    However, in the current situation, Labour has close to 50 seats that look vulnerable.
    *imitates Bruce Forsyth"

    Higher! Higher!
    Scottish seats 2015: "DIdn't he do well?"
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    Thanks for the thread Mr H
    Thank you to Mr Meeks for the list of Lab seats and their majorities.

    I'll post it again on this thread for those that want to muse about which seats are vulnerable and which are safe:

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bygi8eZw-4q1Tm54TU02a3E3R0U/view
    Really helpful Alastair but the majority % in the right hand column is the absolute lead so I presume these numbers need to be halved to work out the swing required?
    At the moment we seem to have a swing of 7% or so, arguably 8% so everything down to Birmingham Yardley is vulnerable?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    Tissue_Price said:

    SandyRentool said:

    When does the count get underway?

    The count is nearly finished. They're just working out what the result in Cook County needs to be.
    LOL
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Essexit said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Oooh, the Len tweet has vanished. Extra bonus skulduggery points. Several banana republics cringing in embarrassment at the spectacle.

    What was the tweet? I can't see Twitter at work.
    Len's team claiming victory - "more soon".

    @WriteYouMedia

    We are told @unitetheunion General Secretary result is 58k for @UniteforLen, 52k for @gerard_coyne and 17k for @ian4unite
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    Comrades, there has been no tweet. All is proceeding normally. Do not be confused by capitalist propaganda.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,939
    Tissue_Price said:

    https://twitter.com/WriteYouMedia/status/855433635335372804

    Is it FPTP or AV???
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    edited April 2017
    Jeremy Corbyn's been spotted on the campaign trail reading to children in Bristol.

    "It's a bear!", the book exclaims, complete with a suitably shocked expression from the Labour leader.

    image

    Wait until he sees the Tory posters of his comments supporting terrorists.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    Typo said:

    Why is that trade union heavyweights seem to have short one-syllable names like Len and Bob and Mick? Is there a finishing school somewhere?

    Salt of the earth types only.
    Essexit said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Oooh, the Len tweet has vanished. Extra bonus skulduggery points. Several banana republics cringing in embarrassment at the spectacle.

    What was the tweet? I can't see Twitter at work.
    That he had won, with more info to come.

    Guido says from other sources he's heard the same thing, but I guess he's supposed to wait for the formal announcement.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,654
    AlastairMeeks said:

    MarkHopkins said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    Thanks for the thread Mr H
    Thank you to Mr Meeks for the list of Lab seats and their majorities.

    Looking at that list, in normal times it ought to be bloody difficult for the Tories to get anywhere past 15 gains from Labour.

    However, in the current situation, Labour has close to 50 seats that look vulnerable.
    *imitates Bruce Forsyth"

    Higher! Higher!
    80
    I'll just point out that Teresa Pearce resigned from the shadow Cabinet to spend more time focusing on her constituency. Her constituency is Erith & Thamesmead, number 108 on that list.
    But surely its a badge of honour to have resigned from one of Corbyn's shadow cabinets? I mean, not having done so would be plain embarrassing.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Rhubarb said:

    Gallowgate said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    https://twitter.com/UniteforLen/status/855431009919279107

    What else has he won!?
    A cuddly toy?
    A six figure salary and he gets to keep the council house…
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,561
    Philip_Thompson said:

    tpfkar said:

    I know it's only 8 seats but if you look at how many votes it's taken to elect a cllr for each party, you get:

    Tory - 1060
    Lib Dem - 1090
    Labour - 4137
    Other - infinite

    That's remarkable vote efficiency for the Tories and Lib Dems (who are usually hit badly by this measure) and hopeless for Labour. Looks like we can't find a good indicator for Labour at the moment, but if they stack up lots of votes while losing seats like this then they are in yet deeper trouble.

    Lib Dems are usually inefficient on a national level, but is that true on a local level usually? Locally the "pothole party" has long been able to punch above its weight.
    Well if you really want to get into the detail, it was the dire performances in wards like these 2 which have made the vote efficient - where they've had a real go they have won and not piled up many votes elsewhere.

    I suspect it is less true locally as Lib Dem votes have floored where they haven't campaigned.

    Looking at Wikipedia for 2016:

    Tories - 1,424,367 votes for 842 seats = 1692 votes per cllr
    Labour - 2,021,566 votes for 1326 seats = 1525 votes per cllr
    Lib Dem - 663,697 votes for 378 seats = 1755 votes per cllr
    UKIP = 583,435 for 58 seats = 10059 votes per cllr

    So not as pronounced as I had expected, but as ever First Past The Post works very well for the big two at the expense of all others.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Strange how Conservative posters having described these as parish elections for months are suddenly using the results to forecast gains in June .
  • BudGBudG Posts: 711
    Last ifop daily rolling poll:

    Macron 24.5 (+0.5)
    Le Pen 22.5 (=)
    Fillon 19.5 (=)
    Melenchon 18.5 (=)

    First poll today with some field work done after last night's incident in Paris.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,939
    Typo said:

    Why is that trade union heavyweights seem to have short one-syllable names like Len and Bob and Mick? Is there a finishing school somewhere?

    Yes. Ruskin College.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    SandyRentool said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    https://twitter.com/WriteYouMedia/status/855433635335372804

    Is it FPTP or AV???
    FPTP
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Jeremy Corbyn's been spotted on the campaign trail reading to children in Bristol.

    "It's a bear!", the book exclaims, complete with a suitably shocked expression from the Labour leader.

    image

    That's charming.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    DavidL said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    MarkHopkins said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    Thanks for the thread Mr H
    Thank you to Mr Meeks for the list of Lab seats and their majorities.

    Looking at that list, in normal times it ought to be bloody difficult for the Tories to get anywhere past 15 gains from Labour.

    However, in the current situation, Labour has close to 50 seats that look vulnerable.
    *imitates Bruce Forsyth"

    Higher! Higher!
    80
    I'll just point out that Teresa Pearce resigned from the shadow Cabinet to spend more time focusing on her constituency. Her constituency is Erith & Thamesmead, number 108 on that list.
    But surely its a badge of honour to have resigned from one of Corbyn's shadow cabinets? I mean, not having done so would be plain embarrassing.
    In the future, everyone will be in the shadow Cabinet for fifteen minutes.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    MarkSenior said:

    Strange how Conservative posters having described these as parish elections for months are suddenly using the results to forecast gains in June .

    People grasp onto straws more during an election campaign when a General Election is actually happening.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    AlastairMeeks said:

    DavidL said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    MarkHopkins said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    Thanks for the thread Mr H
    Thank you to Mr Meeks for the list of Lab seats and their majorities.

    Looking at that list, in normal times it ought to be bloody difficult for the Tories to get anywhere past 15 gains from Labour.

    However, in the current situation, Labour has close to 50 seats that look vulnerable.
    *imitates Bruce Forsyth"

    Higher! Higher!
    80
    I'll just point out that Teresa Pearce resigned from the shadow Cabinet to spend more time focusing on her constituency. Her constituency is Erith & Thamesmead, number 108 on that list.
    But surely its a badge of honour to have resigned from one of Corbyn's shadow cabinets? I mean, not having done so would be plain embarrassing.
    In the future, everyone will be in the shadow Cabinet for fifteen minutes.
    In the future, everyone in the PLP will be in the shadow Cabinet (this presumes a Scottish Tory surge, but hey ho).
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    DavidL said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    Thanks for the thread Mr H
    Thank you to Mr Meeks for the list of Lab seats and their majorities.

    I'll post it again on this thread for those that want to muse about which seats are vulnerable and which are safe:

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bygi8eZw-4q1Tm54TU02a3E3R0U/view
    Really helpful Alastair but the majority % in the right hand column is the absolute lead so I presume these numbers need to be halved to work out the swing required?
    At the moment we seem to have a swing of 7% or so, arguably 8% so everything down to Birmingham Yardley is vulnerable?
    There will be greater than average swings in some seats (and less than average swings in others). I would keep looking a lot further down the list before deciding all seats below that point were safe.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,157
    DavidL said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    MarkHopkins said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    Thanks for the thread Mr H
    Thank you to Mr Meeks for the list of Lab seats and their majorities.

    Looking at that list, in normal times it ought to be bloody difficult for the Tories to get anywhere past 15 gains from Labour.

    However, in the current situation, Labour has close to 50 seats that look vulnerable.
    *imitates Bruce Forsyth"

    Higher! Higher!
    80
    I'll just point out that Teresa Pearce resigned from the shadow Cabinet to spend more time focusing on her constituency. Her constituency is Erith & Thamesmead, number 108 on that list.
    But surely its a badge of honour to have resigned from one of Corbyn's shadow cabinets? I mean, not having done so would be plain embarrassing.
    Not as embarrassing as resigning then rejoining when Corbyn has won.
  • Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Jeremy Corbyn's been spotted on the campaign trail reading to children in Bristol.

    "It's a bear!", the book exclaims, complete with a suitably shocked expression from the Labour leader.

    image

    Wait until he sees the Tory posters of his comments supporting terrorists.

    The version of that pic on Twitter I saw was that Charlie got the chocolate factory and found out they had paid no Corporation Tax.

  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,203
    12-1 on Le Pen to get under 20% o the first round vote... Is that value?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    kle4 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Jeremy Corbyn's been spotted on the campaign trail reading to children in Bristol.

    "It's a bear!", the book exclaims, complete with a suitably shocked expression from the Labour leader.

    image

    That's charming.
    Uh-uh! An election!
    A big dark election.
    We can't go over it.
    We can't go under it.

    Oh no!
    We've got to go through it.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,068
    DavidL said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    Thanks for the thread Mr H
    Thank you to Mr Meeks for the list of Lab seats and their majorities.

    I'll post it again on this thread for those that want to muse about which seats are vulnerable and which are safe:

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bygi8eZw-4q1Tm54TU02a3E3R0U/view
    Really helpful Alastair but the majority % in the right hand column is the absolute lead so I presume these numbers need to be halved to work out the swing required?
    At the moment we seem to have a swing of 7% or so, arguably 8% so everything down to Birmingham Yardley is vulnerable?
    Allowing for the fact that there will be much higher than average swings, as well as much lower than average swings, everything up to Doncaster North is vulnerable.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    Tissue_Price said:

    Essexit said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Oooh, the Len tweet has vanished. Extra bonus skulduggery points. Several banana republics cringing in embarrassment at the spectacle.

    What was the tweet? I can't see Twitter at work.
    Len's team claiming victory - "more soon".

    @WriteYouMedia

    We are told @unitetheunion General Secretary result is 58k for @UniteforLen, 52k for @gerard_coyne and 17k for @ian4unite
    Who on earth is Ian4Unite? He got a decent showing, but all the chatter has been re Coyne and Red Len.

    I presume it was basically Len (Labour), Coyne (Tory), Ian (LD) :)
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,631
    SandyRentool said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    https://twitter.com/WriteYouMedia/status/855433635335372804

    Is it FPTP or AV???
    127,000 total vote - does anyone know how many members are in Unite
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    rkrkrk said:

    12-1 on Le Pen to get under 20% o the first round vote... Is that value?

    I'd say so. Where's that?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    tpfkar said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    tpfkar said:

    I know it's only 8 seats but if you look at how many votes it's taken to elect a cllr for each party, you get:

    Tory - 1060
    Lib Dem - 1090
    Labour - 4137
    Other - infinite

    That's remarkable vote efficiency for the Tories and Lib Dems (who are usually hit badly by this measure) and hopeless for Labour. Looks like we can't find a good indicator for Labour at the moment, but if they stack up lots of votes while losing seats like this then they are in yet deeper trouble.

    Lib Dems are usually inefficient on a national level, but is that true on a local level usually? Locally the "pothole party" has long been able to punch above its weight.
    Well if you really want to get into the detail, it was the dire performances in wards like these 2 which have made the vote efficient - where they've had a real go they have won and not piled up many votes elsewhere.

    I suspect it is less true locally as Lib Dem votes have floored where they haven't campaigned.

    Looking at Wikipedia for 2016:

    Tories - 1,424,367 votes for 842 seats = 1692 votes per cllr
    Labour - 2,021,566 votes for 1326 seats = 1525 votes per cllr
    Lib Dem - 663,697 votes for 378 seats = 1755 votes per cllr
    UKIP = 583,435 for 58 seats = 10059 votes per cllr

    So not as pronounced as I had expected, but as ever First Past The Post works very well for the big two at the expense of all others.
    Seems like FPTP works very well for the top three there not just the big two. Lib Dems only need 3% more votes than Tories do, compared to UKIP needing more than 5.5 times as many.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    edited April 2017
    Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Jeremy Corbyn's been spotted on the campaign trail reading to children in Bristol.

    "It's a bear!", the book exclaims, complete with a suitably shocked expression from the Labour leader.

    image

    Wait until he sees the Tory posters of his comments supporting terrorists.

    The version of that pic on Twitter I saw was that Charlie got the chocolate factory and found out they had paid no Corporation Tax.

    I bet that was the expression he pulled when he found out he had filled his tax return incorrectly !!!
  • Animal_pbAnimal_pb Posts: 608
    Tissue_Price said:

    kle4 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Jeremy Corbyn's been spotted on the campaign trail reading to children in Bristol.

    "It's a bear!", the book exclaims, complete with a suitably shocked expression from the Labour leader.

    image

    That's charming.
    Uh-uh! An election!
    A big dark election.
    We can't go over it.
    We can't go under it.

    Oh no!
    We've got to go through it.
    Brilliant.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    Tissue_Price said:

    kle4 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Jeremy Corbyn's been spotted on the campaign trail reading to children in Bristol.

    "It's a bear!", the book exclaims, complete with a suitably shocked expression from the Labour leader.

    image

    That's charming.
    Uh-uh! An election!
    A big dark election.
    We can't go over it.
    We can't go under it.

    Oh no!
    We've got to go through it.
    Smashes like button....
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,442
    Tissue_Price said:

    kle4 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Jeremy Corbyn's been spotted on the campaign trail reading to children in Bristol.

    "It's a bear!", the book exclaims, complete with a suitably shocked expression from the Labour leader.

    image

    That's charming.
    Uh-uh! An election!
    A big dark election.
    We can't go over it.
    We can't go under it.

    Oh no!
    We've got to go through it.
    To be honest primary school teacher is a job I could imagine Corbyn being pretty good at. I did it for a day a few weeks ago and rather enjoyed it myself :)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,347
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    kle4 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Jeremy Corbyn's been spotted on the campaign trail reading to children in Bristol.

    "It's a bear!", the book exclaims, complete with a suitably shocked expression from the Labour leader.

    image

    That's charming.
    Uh-uh! An election!
    A big dark election.
    We can't go over it.
    We can't go under it.

    Oh no!
    We've got to go through it.
    To be honest primary school teacher is a job I could imagine Corbyn being pretty good at. I did it for a day a few weeks ago and rather enjoyed it myself :)
    Won't the kids be a bit too smart for him?
  • Animal_pbAnimal_pb Posts: 608
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    kle4 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Jeremy Corbyn's been spotted on the campaign trail reading to children in Bristol.

    "It's a bear!", the book exclaims, complete with a suitably shocked expression from the Labour leader.

    image

    That's charming.
    Uh-uh! An election!
    A big dark election.
    We can't go over it.
    We can't go under it.

    Oh no!
    We've got to go through it.
    To be honest primary school teacher is a job I could imagine Corbyn being pretty good at. I did it for a day a few weeks ago and rather enjoyed it myself :)
    Won't the kids be a bit too smart for him?
    Special needs classroom assistant, then?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,725
    edited April 2017
    I did predict Labour would lose Kenton.

    The result is even worse when you factor in the Independent Labour candidates last time - who polled somewhere around the 14% mark - you'd expect most of their votes to go to Labour, and for Labour to benefit a bit from not appearing so divided this time. The anti-Labour swing is therefore understated in the summary above. So actually the result is pretty catastrophic for Labour, particularly given that the ward is a) in London and b) has a high ethnic population.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,631
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    SandyRentool said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    https://twitter.com/WriteYouMedia/status/855433635335372804

    Is it FPTP or AV???
    127,000 total vote - does anyone know how many members are in Unite
    Just Googled it - 1,096,511 voters, a turnout of 14.5%
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,631
    IanB2 said:

    I did predict Labour would lose Kenton.

    The result is even worse when you factor in the Independent Labour candidates last time - who polled somewhere around the 14% mark - you'd expect most of their votes to go to Labour, and for Labour to benefit a bit from not appearing so divided this time. The anti-Labour swing is therefore understated in the summary above. So actually the result is pretty catastrophic for Labour, particularly given that the ward is a) in London and b) has a high ethnic population.

    Why did the Lid Dems do so poorly
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,207
    MarkSenior said:

    Strange how Conservative posters having described these as parish elections for months are suddenly using the results to forecast gains in June .

    Strange how LibDems posters having described these as a springboard for a Great Leap Forward are suddenly quiet when they show a swing TO the Conservatives FROM the LibDems....
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,725
    By the way, to share the latest from Betfair following my complaint about their cancelling the high odds Tory hold Wokingham bet yesterday afternoon. Bit of a strange reply: they say they can't actually cancel bets without customer agreement, then offer me a free £2 bet as compensation for cancelling it.

    Moving a bet from "open" to "void" is a unilateral cancellation on their part (since the overall market is clearly still in play) in my book, and I have responded accordingly. WTS.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    https://twitter.com/DuncanWeldon/status/855438255843684354

    This is crazy. Emmanuel Macron may not win the first round - the polls might be wrong, there might be a late swing - but he should surely now be odds-on favourite to do so.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,442
    IanB2 said:

    By the way, to share the latest from Betfair following my complaint about their cancelling the high odds Tory hold Wokingham bet yesterday afternoon. Bit of a strange reply: they say they can't actually cancel bets without customer agreement, then offer me a free £2 bet as compensation for cancelling it.

    Moving a bet from "open" to "void" is a unilateral cancellation on their part (since the overall market is clearly still in play) in my book, and I have responded accordingly. WTS.

    Sportsbook? And how high were the odds?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    IanB2 said:

    I did predict Labour would lose Kenton.

    The result is even worse when you factor in the Independent Labour candidates last time - who polled somewhere around the 14% mark - you'd expect most of their votes to go to Labour, and for Labour to benefit a bit from not appearing so divided this time. The anti-Labour swing is therefore understated in the summary above. So actually the result is pretty catastrophic for Labour, particularly given that the ward is a) in London and b) has a high ethnic population.

    Why did the Lid Dems do so poorly
    There is a danger for the Lib Dems that Corbyn's Labour and May's Tories are so very different that people feel compelled to "pick a side". Especially given how weak the Lib Dems appear to be right now. In the past you could go for "that nice Mr Clegg/Kennedy" etc as red and blue were not oceans apart.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,068
    IanB2 said:

    I did predict Labour would lose Kenton.

    The result is even worse when you factor in the Independent Labour candidates last time - who polled somewhere around the 14% mark - you'd expect most of their votes to go to Labour, and for Labour to benefit a bit from not appearing so divided this time. The anti-Labour swing is therefore understated in the summary above. So actually the result is pretty catastrophic for Labour, particularly given that the ward is a) in London and b) has a high ethnic population.

    It bodes well for the Conservatives in neighbouring Harrow West.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,725
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    IanB2 said:

    By the way, to share the latest from Betfair following my complaint about their cancelling the high odds Tory hold Wokingham bet yesterday afternoon. Bit of a strange reply: they say they can't actually cancel bets without customer agreement, then offer me a free £2 bet as compensation for cancelling it.

    Moving a bet from "open" to "void" is a unilateral cancellation on their part (since the overall market is clearly still in play) in my book, and I have responded accordingly. WTS.

    Sportsbook? And how high were the odds?
    60/1
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,769
    Tissue_Price said:

    rkrkrk said:

    12-1 on Le Pen to get under 20% o the first round vote... Is that value?

    I'd say so. Where's that?
    I think the 1-3 for her to get 20-30% is also very fair.

    I've backed both !
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    IanB2 said:

    By the way, to share the latest from Betfair following my complaint about their cancelling the high odds Tory hold Wokingham bet yesterday afternoon. Bit of a strange reply: they say they can't actually cancel bets without customer agreement, then offer me a free £2 bet as compensation for cancelling it.

    Moving a bet from "open" to "void" is a unilateral cancellation on their part (since the overall market is clearly still in play) in my book, and I have responded accordingly. WTS.

    Sportsbook? And how high were the odds?
    60-1. I got on Woking at the same, also had it cancelled, as expected.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,662
    Mr. B2, cheers for the update.

    I'd be surprised if they reinstate the bet, but it'd be great if they did.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,725
    kle4 said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    IanB2 said:

    By the way, to share the latest from Betfair following my complaint about their cancelling the high odds Tory hold Wokingham bet yesterday afternoon. Bit of a strange reply: they say they can't actually cancel bets without customer agreement, then offer me a free £2 bet as compensation for cancelling it.

    Moving a bet from "open" to "void" is a unilateral cancellation on their part (since the overall market is clearly still in play) in my book, and I have responded accordingly. WTS.

    Sportsbook? And how high were the odds?
    60-1. I got on Woking at the same, also had it cancelled, as expected.
    If you send an email you'll be up £2 at least.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,442
    IanB2 said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    IanB2 said:

    By the way, to share the latest from Betfair following my complaint about their cancelling the high odds Tory hold Wokingham bet yesterday afternoon. Bit of a strange reply: they say they can't actually cancel bets without customer agreement, then offer me a free £2 bet as compensation for cancelling it.

    Moving a bet from "open" to "void" is a unilateral cancellation on their part (since the overall market is clearly still in play) in my book, and I have responded accordingly. WTS.

    Sportsbook? And how high were the odds?
    60/1
    I don't think you'd win in a courtroom, the error is just too great.
  • TypoTypo Posts: 195
    MarqueeMark said:

    MarkSenior said:

    Strange how Conservative posters having described these as parish elections for months are suddenly using the results to forecast gains in June .

    Strange how LibDems posters having described these as a springboard for a Great Leap Forward are suddenly quiet when they show a swing TO the Conservatives FROM the LibDems....
    Chairman Farron AGOG!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,725
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    IanB2 said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    IanB2 said:

    By the way, to share the latest from Betfair following my complaint about their cancelling the high odds Tory hold Wokingham bet yesterday afternoon. Bit of a strange reply: they say they can't actually cancel bets without customer agreement, then offer me a free £2 bet as compensation for cancelling it.

    Moving a bet from "open" to "void" is a unilateral cancellation on their part (since the overall market is clearly still in play) in my book, and I have responded accordingly. WTS.

    Sportsbook? And how high were the odds?
    60/1
    I don't think you'd win in a courtroom, the error is just too great.
    I know, it's just the principle. And some encouragement for them to be a bit more careful next time, by way of causing them some hassle this time.
  • BudGBudG Posts: 711
    AlastairMeeks said:

    https://twitter.com/DuncanWeldon/status/855438255843684354

    This is crazy. Emmanuel Macron may not win the first round - the polls might be wrong, there might be a late swing - but he should surely now be odds-on favourite to do so.

    At the very least I would say their prices should be pretty similar. But 1.78 Le Pen and 2.82 Macron IS crazy. From the polls alone you would say Fillon has more chance of overhauling Le Pen, putting her third, than Le Pen overhauling Macron.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Jeremy Corbyn's been spotted on the campaign trail reading to children in Bristol.

    "It's a bear!", the book exclaims, complete with a suitably shocked expression from the Labour leader.

    image

    Wait until he sees the Tory posters of his comments supporting terrorists.

    He actually looks like he's quite good at that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    IanB2 said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    IanB2 said:

    By the way, to share the latest from Betfair following my complaint about their cancelling the high odds Tory hold Wokingham bet yesterday afternoon. Bit of a strange reply: they say they can't actually cancel bets without customer agreement, then offer me a free £2 bet as compensation for cancelling it.

    Moving a bet from "open" to "void" is a unilateral cancellation on their part (since the overall market is clearly still in play) in my book, and I have responded accordingly. WTS.

    Sportsbook? And how high were the odds?
    60/1
    I don't think you'd win in a courtroom, the error is just too great.
    I think it's more about causing them some administrative grief as, in effect, the price for them offering a too good to be true deal then backing out, not expecting to win - as you say, clearly an error.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,169
    edited April 2017
    IanB2 said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    IanB2 said:

    By the way, to share the latest from Betfair following my complaint about their cancelling the high odds Tory hold Wokingham bet yesterday afternoon. Bit of a strange reply: they say they can't actually cancel bets without customer agreement, then offer me a free £2 bet as compensation for cancelling it.

    Moving a bet from "open" to "void" is a unilateral cancellation on their part (since the overall market is clearly still in play) in my book, and I have responded accordingly. WTS.

    Sportsbook? And how high were the odds?
    60/1
    Was probably supposed to be 1/60. Very poor form to cancel legitimately placed bets though.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,160
    kle4 said:

    Typo said:

    Why is that trade union heavyweights seem to have short one-syllable names like Len and Bob and Mick? Is there a finishing school somewhere?

    Salt of the earth types only.
    Essexit said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Oooh, the Len tweet has vanished. Extra bonus skulduggery points. Several banana republics cringing in embarrassment at the spectacle.

    What was the tweet? I can't see Twitter at work.
    That he had won, with more info to come.

    Guido says from other sources he's heard the same thing, but I guess he's supposed to wait for the formal announcement.
    (((Dan Hodges)))‏Verified account @DPJHodges 24m24 minutes ago
    More
    McCluskey squeaks narrow win. When I wrote a couple of weeks ago it would be close his supporters said it was 'fake news'.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,576
    Sandpit said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    https://twitter.com/UniteforLen/status/855431009919279107

    IanB2 said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    IanB2 said:

    By the way, to share the latest from Betfair following my complaint about their cancelling the high odds Tory hold Wokingham bet yesterday afternoon. Bit of a strange reply: they say they can't actually cancel bets without customer agreement, then offer me a free £2 bet as compensation for cancelling it.

    Moving a bet from "open" to "void" is a unilateral cancellation on their part (since the overall market is clearly still in play) in my book, and I have responded accordingly. WTS.

    Sportsbook? And how high were the odds?
    60/1
    Was probably supposed to be 1/60. Very poor form to cancel legitimately placed bets though.
    When they changed them, it was to 1/200, so it wasn't purely a transposition error, just carelessness I imagine.
This discussion has been closed.