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SystemSystem Posts: 12,682
edited April 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The true purpose of GE2017 will be confirmed in the CON candidate choices in Thanet S and LD-CON battlegrounds

The veteran Labour firebrand, Dennis Skinner, raised the Tory GE2015 campaign expenses investigation in usual style at PMQs yesterday. The prime minister responded in her usual style as well and appeared to back all the MPs involved.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    first
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,705
    Second!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,760
    If Corbyn starts chanting 'Lock her [Mrs May] up'
  • noisywinternoisywinter Posts: 249
    Slight repost- stonking value on Tories in Bham Edgabaston and Northfield both 4/5 on Betfair Sportsbook- I've had over 1k now :)
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited April 2017
    Apologies if already posted :

    Harris 18/19 Apr Sample 2,812

    Macron 25 .. Le Pen 22 .. Fillon 19 .. Melenchon 19

    http://harris-interactive.fr/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2017/04/Rapport-Harris-intentions-vote-presidentielle-france-televisions-20042017.pdf
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,760
    Always amuses me that the CPS in recent years charged and oversaw the conviction of several sitting MPs, including a cabinet minister, the DPP at the time is now a prominent shadow cabinet minister.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,893
    Sixth, like Arsenal.
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107
    Any thoughts if Farage will stand in Thanet again?

    Can't see him standing at all tbh, don't see the point.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    What can the Cons do? Not reselect the candidates and everyone will presume guilt - and no charges may ever emerge and several innocent ex-MPs will feel rightly aggrieved. This does feel a bit of a "bubble" story.......serious though it potentially is. At least one of the architects of the mess, Osborne, is no longer standing....
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 26,052
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Always amuses me that the CPS in recent years charged and oversaw the conviction of several sitting MPs, including a cabinet minister, the DPP at the time is now a prominent shadow cabinet minister.

    Osborne leaves politics , IMF ups UK growth

    coincidence ?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,760
    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Always amuses me that the CPS in recent years charged and oversaw the conviction of several sitting MPs, including a cabinet minister, the DPP at the time is now a prominent shadow cabinet minister.

    Osborne leaves politics , IMF ups UK growth

    coincidence ?
    Yes, coincidence.

    Please no Osborne barbs for a while, I'm still a man in pain.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    CarlottaVance said:

    What can the Cons do? Not reselect the candidates and everyone will presume guilt - and no charges may ever emerge and several innocent ex-MPs will feel rightly aggrieved. This does feel a bit of a "bubble" story.......serious though it potentially is. At least one of the architects of the mess, Osborne, is no longer standing....

    What is your evidence for such an assertion.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,966
    Eleventh, like Arron "I know nothing about Clacton" Banks.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,760
    On topic it was a bloody disgrace that the CPS leaked to Channel 4 news the other day.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,376
    edited April 2017
    Still can't get over that ludicrous poll last night. Labour on 24%? Who could believe that?
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Morning all.

    The first YouGov poll taken after the announcement of GE2017 was a bit of a surprise and does not bode well for any UKiP candidates standing for election.

    I doubt Farage will bother this time round.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 26,052
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Always amuses me that the CPS in recent years charged and oversaw the conviction of several sitting MPs, including a cabinet minister, the DPP at the time is now a prominent shadow cabinet minister.

    Osborne leaves politics , IMF ups UK growth

    coincidence ?
    Yes, coincidence.

    Please no Osborne barbs for a while, I'm still a man in pain.
    it's ok I ve moved on to Salmond

    I have 2 site funding bets going that he loses his seat

    I;m confidently predicting he'll be 10000 votes behind the winner

    cough cough
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,760
    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Always amuses me that the CPS in recent years charged and oversaw the conviction of several sitting MPs, including a cabinet minister, the DPP at the time is now a prominent shadow cabinet minister.

    Osborne leaves politics , IMF ups UK growth

    coincidence ?
    Yes, coincidence.

    Please no Osborne barbs for a while, I'm still a man in pain.
    it's ok I ve moved on to Salmond

    I have 2 site funding bets going that he loses his seat

    I;m confidently predicting he'll be 10000 votes behind the winner

    cough cough
    Osborne's standing in Gordon then ?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 26,052
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Always amuses me that the CPS in recent years charged and oversaw the conviction of several sitting MPs, including a cabinet minister, the DPP at the time is now a prominent shadow cabinet minister.

    Osborne leaves politics , IMF ups UK growth

    coincidence ?
    Yes, coincidence.

    Please no Osborne barbs for a while, I'm still a man in pain.
    it's ok I ve moved on to Salmond

    I have 2 site funding bets going that he loses his seat

    I;m confidently predicting he'll be 10000 votes behind the winner

    cough cough
    Osborne's standing in Gordon then ?
    lol

    on that basis even Id vote for him
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 26,052
    DavidL said:

    Still can't get over that ludicrous poll last night. Labour on 24%? Who could believe that?

    and thats when all the Con voters are supposedly on hols skiing or sunning themselves
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The Betfair Sportsbook price on the Conservatives in Birmingham Edgbaston is astonishingly generous - I've backed it from 11/10 and it's still 4/5. Without Gisela Stuart for Labour, this must surely be closer to 2/5 or shorter.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,893
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic it was a bloody disgrace that the CPS leaked to Channel 4 news the other day.

    Absolutely. We don't want an American-style system where prosecutors are public figures. Starmer was too much of a politician for DPP, we want them to carefully consider then announce charges - no background briefing of journalists and no hyped press conferences.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,799
    AlastairMeeks said:

    The Betfair Sportsbook price on the Conservatives in Birmingham Edgbaston is astonishingly generous - I've backed it from 11/10 and it's still 4/5. Without Gisela Stuart for Labour, this must surely be closer to 2/5 or shorter.

    Didn't the constituency vote heavily for remain?
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Has mentioning the new editor of the Evening Standard become a taboo subject on PB....!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,376
    Alanbrooke said:

    DavidL said:

    Still can't get over that ludicrous poll last night. Labour on 24%? Who could believe that?

    and thats when all the Con voters are supposedly on hols skiing or sunning themselves
    Surely they are back by now?

    I mentioned to my wife that it looks like I would be spending time up in Blairgowrie again this election as it is a target Tory seat. She suggested I pop into the High School and teach some maths whilst I was there. The High School in John Swinney's seat (Minister for Education) wrote to parents asking if they could help as the exams approached as they didn't have enough maths teachers. Not sure about Salmond but the SNP's obsession with constitutional matters, as opposed to, you know, running the country, just might bite them this time.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,376
    AlastairMeeks said:

    The Betfair Sportsbook price on the Conservatives in Birmingham Edgbaston is astonishingly generous - I've backed it from 11/10 and it's still 4/5. Without Gisela Stuart for Labour, this must surely be closer to 2/5 or shorter.

    Wasn't that a nailed on gain the last time except Stuart held on? I agree without her its a gain but that woman is a hell of a campaigner.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,888
    Its still school holidays here in the North East
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,799
    On topic - don't know if this will be a big story for the election.
    But i could certainly see it coming to taint a May election victory if it turns out it is Tory MPs only.

    It could also have been a compelling rational for labour to vote against the election though.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    SimonStClare said:

    Has mentioning the new editor of the Evening Standard become a taboo subject on PB....!

    Well Alanbrooke is in therapy, his bete noir has gone. TSE is struggling.. We need a ELE event for Labour to cheer them up.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    rkrkrk said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The Betfair Sportsbook price on the Conservatives in Birmingham Edgbaston is astonishingly generous - I've backed it from 11/10 and it's still 4/5. Without Gisela Stuart for Labour, this must surely be closer to 2/5 or shorter.

    Didn't the constituency vote heavily for remain?
    It voted Remain. I'm not sure the average Edgbastonian is a natural supporter of Jeremy Corbyn though. A seat held by Labour at the last election against the odds on a huge personal vote looks exposed with a large further adverse swing and without that personal vote.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,760
    AlastairMeeks said:

    The Betfair Sportsbook price on the Conservatives in Birmingham Edgbaston is astonishingly generous - I've backed it from 11/10 and it's still 4/5. Without Gisela Stuart for Labour, this must surely be closer to 2/5 or shorter.

    Yup. I've said the West Midlands will be the worst region for a Corbyn led Labour Party.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 26,052
    DavidL said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    DavidL said:

    Still can't get over that ludicrous poll last night. Labour on 24%? Who could believe that?

    and thats when all the Con voters are supposedly on hols skiing or sunning themselves
    Surely they are back by now?

    I mentioned to my wife that it looks like I would be spending time up in Blairgowrie again this election as it is a target Tory seat. She suggested I pop into the High School and teach some maths whilst I was there. The High School in John Swinney's seat (Minister for Education) wrote to parents asking if they could help as the exams approached as they didn't have enough maths teachers. Not sure about Salmond but the SNP's obsession with constitutional matters, as opposed to, you know, running the country, just might bite them this time.
    we.re still on hols in the Midlands

    Ive a bet with malc and JPJ2 re Salmond. More on the "brave" end of the spectrum but should provide 7 weeks of crack as I try to get malc to cough up early :-)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,376
    Alanbrooke said:

    DavidL said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    DavidL said:

    Still can't get over that ludicrous poll last night. Labour on 24%? Who could believe that?

    and thats when all the Con voters are supposedly on hols skiing or sunning themselves
    Surely they are back by now?

    I mentioned to my wife that it looks like I would be spending time up in Blairgowrie again this election as it is a target Tory seat. She suggested I pop into the High School and teach some maths whilst I was there. The High School in John Swinney's seat (Minister for Education) wrote to parents asking if they could help as the exams approached as they didn't have enough maths teachers. Not sure about Salmond but the SNP's obsession with constitutional matters, as opposed to, you know, running the country, just might bite them this time.
    we.re still on hols in the Midlands

    Ive a bet with malc and JPJ2 re Salmond. More on the "brave" end of the spectrum but should provide 7 weeks of crack as I try to get malc to cough up early :-)
    Sounds an excellent investment.
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107
    This time last year Cameron and Osborne were the smuggest and most influential politicians in the country, the fact neither is now an MP restores my faith in politics a little.

    As the polls show, we're tired of vacuous, hubristic rich boys using the nation as a play thing.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,760
    SimonStClare said:

    Has mentioning the new editor of the Evening Standard become a taboo subject on PB....!

    No.

    You can talk about how sad that he isn't a MP, PM, or Chancellor, or what Johnny Mercer said

    https://twitter.com/JohnnyMercerMP/status/854664135874838528
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,376
    AlastairMeeks said:

    rkrkrk said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The Betfair Sportsbook price on the Conservatives in Birmingham Edgbaston is astonishingly generous - I've backed it from 11/10 and it's still 4/5. Without Gisela Stuart for Labour, this must surely be closer to 2/5 or shorter.

    Didn't the constituency vote heavily for remain?
    It voted Remain. I'm not sure the average Edgbastonian is a natural supporter of Jeremy Corbyn though. A seat held by Labour at the last election against the odds on a huge personal vote looks exposed with a large further adverse swing and without that personal vote.
    Is she definitely not standing? She was being somewhat ambiguous on R4 yesterday morning. Need to speak to my Constituency party etc.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    DavidL said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    rkrkrk said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The Betfair Sportsbook price on the Conservatives in Birmingham Edgbaston is astonishingly generous - I've backed it from 11/10 and it's still 4/5. Without Gisela Stuart for Labour, this must surely be closer to 2/5 or shorter.

    Didn't the constituency vote heavily for remain?
    It voted Remain. I'm not sure the average Edgbastonian is a natural supporter of Jeremy Corbyn though. A seat held by Labour at the last election against the odds on a huge personal vote looks exposed with a large further adverse swing and without that personal vote.
    Is she definitely not standing? She was being somewhat ambiguous on R4 yesterday morning. Need to speak to my Constituency party etc.
    http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/birmingham-edgbaston-mp-gisela-stuart-12916429
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,816
    Getting rid of the triple lock is a bold move. It shows a certain hubris and complacency to start doing massive diarrhetic shits on your core vote assuming they have nowhere else to go.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,065
    edited April 2017
    If we're throwing tips around my contribution.

    1. Edinburgh South Labour hold

    2. Manchester Withington Lib Dem win from Labour
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    DavidL said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    rkrkrk said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The Betfair Sportsbook price on the Conservatives in Birmingham Edgbaston is astonishingly generous - I've backed it from 11/10 and it's still 4/5. Without Gisela Stuart for Labour, this must surely be closer to 2/5 or shorter.

    Didn't the constituency vote heavily for remain?
    It voted Remain. I'm not sure the average Edgbastonian is a natural supporter of Jeremy Corbyn though. A seat held by Labour at the last election against the odds on a huge personal vote looks exposed with a large further adverse swing and without that personal vote.
    Is she definitely not standing? She was being somewhat ambiguous on R4 yesterday morning. Need to speak to my Constituency party etc.
    http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/birmingham-edgbaston-mp-gisela-stuart-12916429
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,539
    DavidL said:

    Still can't get over that ludicrous poll last night. Labour on 24%? Who could believe that?

    Seats like Wigan and Leigh could play the parts of Brent North and Southgate on those numbers.

    The Tories last won Wigan in 1910.

    By my reckoning, the Tories would win an overall majority in Wales, for the first time since the 1850's.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,271
    CarlottaVance said:

    What can the Cons do? Not reselect the candidates and everyone will presume guilt - and no charges may ever emerge and several innocent ex-MPs will feel rightly aggrieved. This does feel a bit of a "bubble" story.......serious though it potentially is. At least one of the architects of the mess, Osborne, is no longer standing....

    The fair thing would be to allow them to stand. If there are by-elections after the general election because of malpractice in the previous general election, it won't matter so much with the Tories' stonking majority.

    We'll see.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    I don't know how the chaps at Betfair Sportsbook are selecting their constituencies to price up (they seem awfully scattergun and random to me, and there aren't very many of them) but I've also nibbled Edgbaston.

    I backed Northfield at 12/1 last time and, whilst I'm pretty confident it will go this time, I'm not leaping out of bed to back the Tories in it at 4/5.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,216
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    On topic it was a bloody disgrace that the CPS leaked to Channel 4 news the other day.

    Agreed. Doesn't help that their former boss is now high up in the Labour Party.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,376
    Pong said:

    DavidL said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    rkrkrk said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The Betfair Sportsbook price on the Conservatives in Birmingham Edgbaston is astonishingly generous - I've backed it from 11/10 and it's still 4/5. Without Gisela Stuart for Labour, this must surely be closer to 2/5 or shorter.

    Didn't the constituency vote heavily for remain?
    It voted Remain. I'm not sure the average Edgbastonian is a natural supporter of Jeremy Corbyn though. A seat held by Labour at the last election against the odds on a huge personal vote looks exposed with a large further adverse swing and without that personal vote.
    Is she definitely not standing? She was being somewhat ambiguous on R4 yesterday morning. Need to speak to my Constituency party etc.
    http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/birmingham-edgbaston-mp-gisela-stuart-12916429
    Another loss. Not on the Osborne scale of course but another distinctive and interesting voice lost from the Commons. There are far too few people of talent in UK politics these days. It looks as if after this election there may be even fewer.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,317
    edited April 2017
    AlastairMeeks said:

    DavidL said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    rkrkrk said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The Betfair Sportsbook price on the Conservatives in Birmingham Edgbaston is astonishingly generous - I've backed it from 11/10 and it's still 4/5. Without Gisela Stuart for Labour, this must surely be closer to 2/5 or shorter.

    Didn't the constituency vote heavily for remain?
    It voted Remain. I'm not sure the average Edgbastonian is a natural supporter of Jeremy Corbyn though. A seat held by Labour at the last election against the odds on a huge personal vote looks exposed with a large further adverse swing and without that personal vote.
    Is she definitely not standing? She was being somewhat ambiguous on R4 yesterday morning. Need to speak to my Constituency party etc.
    http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/birmingham-edgbaston-mp-gisela-stuart-12916429
    I'm interested in evidence of the personal vote effect. First, very few people know the names of their MP. Second, I don't see how people so easily changes voting intentions on account of personalities. I wouldn't.
  • noisywinternoisywinter Posts: 249
    Casino_Royale said:

    I don't know how the chaps at Betfair Sportsbook are selecting their constituencies to price up (they seem awfully scattergun and random to me, and there aren't very many of them) but I've also nibbled Edgbaston.

    I backed Northfield at 12/1 last time and, whilst I'm pretty confident it will go this time, I'm not leaping out of bed to back the Tories in it at 4/5.

    Looks like starting alphabetically- sort of

    Dont agree on Northfield!
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    DavidL said:

    Pong said:

    DavidL said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    rkrkrk said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The Betfair Sportsbook price on the Conservatives in Birmingham Edgbaston is astonishingly generous - I've backed it from 11/10 and it's still 4/5. Without Gisela Stuart for Labour, this must surely be closer to 2/5 or shorter.

    Didn't the constituency vote heavily for remain?
    It voted Remain. I'm not sure the average Edgbastonian is a natural supporter of Jeremy Corbyn though. A seat held by Labour at the last election against the odds on a huge personal vote looks exposed with a large further adverse swing and without that personal vote.
    Is she definitely not standing? She was being somewhat ambiguous on R4 yesterday morning. Need to speak to my Constituency party etc.
    http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/birmingham-edgbaston-mp-gisela-stuart-12916429
    Another loss. Not on the Osborne scale of course but another distinctive and interesting voice lost from the Commons. There are far too few people of talent in UK politics these days. It looks as if after this election there may be even fewer.

    Apart from her backing for Brexit what was distinctive and interesting about Gisela Stuart? She seemed a straight down the line moderate Labour MP to me.

  • po8crgpo8crg Posts: 27
    I'm betting that at the very least they will make sure that none of the Agents under suspicion are Agent again. That way if they are disqualified, it doesn't affect the 2017 result.
  • po8crgpo8crg Posts: 27
    po8crg said:

    I'm betting that at the very least they will make sure that none of the Agents under suspicion are Agent again. That way if they are disqualified, it doesn't affect the 2017 result.

    Well, when I say betting, I mean predicting, obviously no-one's going to offer a book on appointed election agents!
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    Meanwhile the EU quietly gets on with the job of sidelining the UK.

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/854797735194746885
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    If the lost UKIP votes are ex-Tories returning to the fold, doesn't that mainly mean much bigger Tory majorities in seats they already hold? Obviously, the Tories are going to win a number of Labour-held marginals, but I suspect that a lot if their extra votes are going to come in seats they already hold. That may mean Labour closer to 170/180 seats than 140/150.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    noisywinter said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    I don't know how the chaps at Betfair Sportsbook are selecting their constituencies to price up (they seem awfully scattergun and random to me, and there aren't very many of them) but I've also nibbled Edgbaston.

    I backed Northfield at 12/1 last time and, whilst I'm pretty confident it will go this time, I'm not leaping out of bed to back the Tories in it at 4/5.

    Looks like starting alphabetically- sort of

    Dont agree on Northfield!
    You can double up your bets with Paddy Power, who are offering the same prices as Betfair Sportsbook. Boom.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,376
    Good to see agent Corbyn is doing his bit for Tory funding: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39649119
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Guardian long read on the battle bus - expenses story:

    https://www.theguardian.com/news/2017/mar/23/conservative-election-scandal-victory-2015-expenses
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,376
    SouthamObserver said:

    If the lost UKIP votes are ex-Tories returning to the fold, doesn't that mainly mean much bigger Tory majorities in seats they already hold? Obviously, the Tories are going to win a number of Labour-held marginals, but I suspect that a lot if their extra votes are going to come in seats they already hold. That may mean Labour closer to 170/180 seats than 140/150.

    I think there is an element of truth in that. I banged on and on in 2015 about how the UKIP vote was likely to make the Tory vote more efficient than it had been in 2010 and an unwind of it is not likely to help in a lot of seats. But some Tories with smallish majorities facing Lib Dems will be glad of it as will some Tory challengers hunting down Labour majorities smaller than the UKIP vote in their constituencies last time out.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    edited April 2017
    AlastairMeeks said:

    rkrkrk said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The Betfair Sportsbook price on the Conservatives in Birmingham Edgbaston is astonishingly generous - I've backed it from 11/10 and it's still 4/5. Without Gisela Stuart for Labour, this must surely be closer to 2/5 or shorter.

    Didn't the constituency vote heavily for remain?
    It voted Remain. I'm not sure the average Edgbastonian is a natural supporter of Jeremy Corbyn though. A seat held by Labour at the last election against the odds on a huge personal vote looks exposed with a large further adverse swing and without that personal vote.
    I'm not convinced that the election will be decided on so one-dimensional a factor as the Lib Dems hope.

    Speaking of which, can anyone clarify what their position on the A50 negotiations actually is at the moment? I can't tell if it's "try to overturn the referendum and ask to stay in on whatever terms are necessary", "hold a deal-or-no-deal referendum on the outcome of the talks" or "push for EFTA-EEA membership". Last I heard it seemed to be the last of these, but it's rather late to start going for that now - that should have started on June 24th, but so much time, effort and money (Gina Miller) was wasted fighting a lost cause instead.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Bromptonaut said:

    Meanwhile the EU quietly gets on with the job of sidelining the UK.

    //twitter.com/hendopolis/status/854797735194746885

    The howls of outrage that the EU plan to cut us off from data have been deafening........so I expect they won't mind when we do the same.......
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Bromptonaut said:

    Meanwhile the EU quietly gets on with the job of sidelining the UK.

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/854797735194746885

    It's what we voted for.

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    DavidL said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    If the lost UKIP votes are ex-Tories returning to the fold, doesn't that mainly mean much bigger Tory majorities in seats they already hold? Obviously, the Tories are going to win a number of Labour-held marginals, but I suspect that a lot if their extra votes are going to come in seats they already hold. That may mean Labour closer to 170/180 seats than 140/150.

    I think there is an element of truth in that. I banged on and on in 2015 about how the UKIP vote was likely to make the Tory vote more efficient than it had been in 2010 and an unwind of it is not likely to help in a lot of seats. But some Tories with smallish majorities facing Lib Dems will be glad of it as will some Tory challengers hunting down Labour majorities smaller than the UKIP vote in their constituencies last time out.
    The best constituency bets are likely to be in Labour held seats with a strong vote for both Con and UKIP. I have just had a punt on Tories take Dagenham on Sportsbook. 11/4 seemed good odds.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    edited April 2017
    Esther Money for Tatton perchance?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Tim Shipman‏ @ShippersUnbound
    Farage says he thinks he would win but hasn't decided whether to run. Righto...
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Bromptonaut said:

    Meanwhile the EU quietly gets on with the job of sidelining the UK.

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/854797735194746885

    Brexit means Brexit. We sidelined ourselves.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,908
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Bromptonaut said:

    Meanwhile the EU quietly gets on with the job of sidelining the UK.

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/854797735194746885

    Brexit means Brexit. We sidelined ourselves.
    165 166 UN member states are outside the EU!
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Bromptonaut said:

    Meanwhile the EU quietly gets on with the job of sidelining the UK.

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/854797735194746885

    Brexit means Brexit. We sidelined ourselves.
    Who is this 'we' of which thou dost speak?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,376
    foxinsoxuk said:

    DavidL said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    If the lost UKIP votes are ex-Tories returning to the fold, doesn't that mainly mean much bigger Tory majorities in seats they already hold? Obviously, the Tories are going to win a number of Labour-held marginals, but I suspect that a lot if their extra votes are going to come in seats they already hold. That may mean Labour closer to 170/180 seats than 140/150.

    I think there is an element of truth in that. I banged on and on in 2015 about how the UKIP vote was likely to make the Tory vote more efficient than it had been in 2010 and an unwind of it is not likely to help in a lot of seats. But some Tories with smallish majorities facing Lib Dems will be glad of it as will some Tory challengers hunting down Labour majorities smaller than the UKIP vote in their constituencies last time out.
    The best constituency bets are likely to be in Labour held seats with a strong vote for both Con and UKIP. I have just had a punt on Tories take Dagenham on Sportsbook. 11/4 seemed good odds.
    Yes, they are the obvious ones. In Scotland look for seats with a strong Unionist majority that the SNP won as a result of a split vote the last time. These are classically ex Lib Dem seats where the Tories moved into second last time out but there are still thousands of Lib Dem voters to squeeze. Examples Berwickshire and Aberdeen West and Kincardine. The latter has the advantage that the Tories won the constituency seat at Holyrood only a year ago and looks to me the best prospect of a tory gain in the country.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    I think the CPS would be loathe to make an announcement during an election especially given Starmer position on one side of the fence

    Moreover even if individual MPs are found guilty if they have been cleanly re-elected in the meantime I think the courts will not disbar them. Big fine for the party possibly, but once the electorate has spoken that is it.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Alleged SCon hitlist:

    https://www.thecourier.co.uk/fp/news/politics/scottish-politics/409311/conservative-election-target-snp-deputy-leader/
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Always amuses me that the CPS in recent years charged and oversaw the conviction of several sitting MPs, including a cabinet minister, the DPP at the time is now a prominent shadow cabinet minister.

    Glad you've downgraded from "convicted" to "oversaw the conviction" but they didn't really. That's the judge's role. The CPS is naught but the state prosecutor.

    Clue's in the name...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,376
    Charles said:

    I think the CPS would be loathe to make an announcement during an election especially given Starmer position on one side of the fence

    Moreover even if individual MPs are found guilty if they have been cleanly re-elected in the meantime I think the courts will not disbar them. Big fine for the party possibly, but once the electorate has spoken that is it.

    I think normally that would be right but they have a deadline that was extended by the Courts to bring charges. They can't do it later, the Court can only extend the deadline once. I think the deadline is within the month.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,893
    po8crg said:

    I'm betting that at the very least they will make sure that none of the Agents under suspicion are Agent again. That way if they are disqualified, it doesn't affect the 2017 result.

    That's a good call, agents will be under much more scrutiny for financial breaches than candidates.
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    CarlottaVance said:

    Bromptonaut said:

    Meanwhile the EU quietly gets on with the job of sidelining the UK.

    //twitter.com/hendopolis/status/854797735194746885

    The howls of outrage that the EU plan to cut us off from data have been deafening........so I expect they won't mind when we do the same.......
    And you post that as though excluding each other from valuable sources of information were somehow to be celebrated.

    And there's me thinking the Tories were the soi-disant party of economic growth.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    JackW said:

    Apologies if already posted :

    Harris 18/19 Apr Sample 2,812

    Macron 25 .. Le Pen 22 .. Fillon 19 .. Melenchon 19

    http://harris-interactive.fr/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2017/04/Rapport-Harris-intentions-vote-presidentielle-france-televisions-20042017.pdf

    Macron to top the first round at 2.9 on Betfair still looks a good punt.

    I am all green on the French election, but have most of my stake money tied up there.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    DavidL said:

    Still can't get over that ludicrous poll last night. Labour on 24%? Who could believe that?

    I know. Imagine as many as 1 in 4 voters being so naive or tribal!

    :smile:
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    CarlottaVance said:

    Tim Shipman‏ @ShippersUnbound
    Farage says he thinks he would win but hasn't decided whether to run. Righto...

    Farage relying on a huge personal vote then, because the UKiP numbers are dire. #Bravado.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,893
    CarlottaVance said:

    Bromptonaut said:

    Meanwhile the EU quietly gets on with the job of sidelining the UK.

    //twitter.com/hendopolis/status/854797735194746885

    The howls of outrage that the EU plan to cut us off from data have been deafening........so I expect they won't mind when we do the same.......
    If the EU are excluding British companies from their government contracts, obviously they won't mind that we start giving our own such contracts exclusively to British companies.
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    Bromptonaut said:

    Meanwhile the EU quietly gets on with the job of sidelining the UK.

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/854797735194746885

    This is nothing new. The protectionism of France and Germany has never favoured the UK.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,760
    Charles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Always amuses me that the CPS in recent years charged and oversaw the conviction of several sitting MPs, including a cabinet minister, the DPP at the time is now a prominent shadow cabinet minister.

    Glad you've downgraded from "convicted" to "oversaw the conviction" but they didn't really. That's the judge's role. The CPS is naught but the state prosecutor.

    Clue's in the name...
    They prosecute but they also make the charging decision.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,328
    AlastairMeeks said:

    DavidL said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    rkrkrk said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The Betfair Sportsbook price on the Conservatives in Birmingham Edgbaston is astonishingly generous - I've backed it from 11/10 and it's still 4/5. Without Gisela Stuart for Labour, this must surely be closer to 2/5 or shorter.

    Didn't the constituency vote heavily for remain?
    It voted Remain. I'm not sure the average Edgbastonian is a natural supporter of Jeremy Corbyn though. A seat held by Labour at the last election against the odds on a huge personal vote looks exposed with a large further adverse swing and without that personal vote.
    Is she definitely not standing? She was being somewhat ambiguous on R4 yesterday morning. Need to speak to my Constituency party etc.
    http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/birmingham-edgbaston-mp-gisela-stuart-12916429
    Spotted this yesterday but don't think you were around at the time - shame the first Meeks - Mortimer bet is moot.

    i'm sure there will be lots more opportunities.

    From the Betfair sportsbook I'm also on Barrow and Bham Northfields Tory gains...

    Edgbaston, at 4/7, still seems great value....
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    DavidL said:

    Good to see agent Corbyn is doing his bit for Tory funding: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39649119

    On the first full day of general election campaigning, the Labour leader will say "powerful people" do not want him to win the snap poll on 8 June.

    One word too many there, Jez.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,893
    felix said:

    Esther Money for Tatton perchance?

    I think your autocorrect meant Esther McVey, but yes that would be a great pick. She should be high up the list for a safe seat after her experience at the last election.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,328
    BTW - David Goodhart's book 'The Road to Somewhere' is very good. Just reading it atm, and the 'somewheres/anywheres' dichotomy has just been mentioned on R4's thought for the day.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Bromptonaut said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Bromptonaut said:

    Meanwhile the EU quietly gets on with the job of sidelining the UK.

    //twitter.com/hendopolis/status/854797735194746885

    The howls of outrage that the EU plan to cut us off from data have been deafening........so I expect they won't mind when we do the same.......
    And you post that as though excluding each other from valuable sources of information were somehow to be celebrated.

    And there's me thinking the Tories were the soi-disant party of economic growth.
    The furore from the REMAINERS that the UK might not share data with the EU in the absence of an agreement has not been matched when the EU plans the same.

    Funny that.
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    Sandpit said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Bromptonaut said:

    Meanwhile the EU quietly gets on with the job of sidelining the UK.

    //twitter.com/hendopolis/status/854797735194746885

    The howls of outrage that the EU plan to cut us off from data have been deafening........so I expect they won't mind when we do the same.......
    If the EU are excluding British companies from their government contracts, obviously they won't mind that we start giving our own such contracts exclusively to British companies.
    Travelled by train recently?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,539
    DavidL said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    If the lost UKIP votes are ex-Tories returning to the fold, doesn't that mainly mean much bigger Tory majorities in seats they already hold? Obviously, the Tories are going to win a number of Labour-held marginals, but I suspect that a lot if their extra votes are going to come in seats they already hold. That may mean Labour closer to 170/180 seats than 140/150.

    I think there is an element of truth in that. I banged on and on in 2015 about how the UKIP vote was likely to make the Tory vote more efficient than it had been in 2010 and an unwind of it is not likely to help in a lot of seats. But some Tories with smallish majorities facing Lib Dems will be glad of it as will some Tory challengers hunting down Labour majorities smaller than the UKIP vote in their constituencies last time out.
    IMHO, the unpopularity of the Labour party in many working class Leave constituencies puts seats in play that shouldn't be in play. IMO, all but 90 or so Labour seats are vulnerable (I'm not forecasting 140 Labour losses, but I am forecasting losses up to the 91st safest seat).
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    foxinsoxuk said:

    JackW said:

    Apologies if already posted :

    Harris 18/19 Apr Sample 2,812

    Macron 25 .. Le Pen 22 .. Fillon 19 .. Melenchon 19

    http://harris-interactive.fr/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2017/04/Rapport-Harris-intentions-vote-presidentielle-france-televisions-20042017.pdf

    Macron to top the first round at 2.9 on Betfair still looks a good punt.

    I am all green on the French election, but have most of my stake money tied up there.
    I'm suffering from betting opportunity overload right now.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,328
    Charles said:

    DavidL said:

    Still can't get over that ludicrous poll last night. Labour on 24%? Who could believe that?

    I know. Imagine as many as 1 in 4 voters being so naive or tribal!

    :smile:
    The 24% shocked me too - with Tories on 48% I didn't expect to see Labour so high....
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Bromptonaut said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Bromptonaut said:

    Meanwhile the EU quietly gets on with the job of sidelining the UK.

    //twitter.com/hendopolis/status/854797735194746885

    The howls of outrage that the EU plan to cut us off from data have been deafening........so I expect they won't mind when we do the same.......
    And you post that as though excluding each other from valuable sources of information were somehow to be celebrated.

    And there's me thinking the Tories were the soi-disant party of economic growth.
    I wonder if Carlotta agrees wholeheartedly with this bit of Nat bashing:

    https://twitter.com/speccoffeehouse/status/854946238839615488
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    viewcode said:

    OK you maggots, time to earn your crusts. The following academics (and others) made predictions for the 2015 General Election and/or the 2016 EU Referendum:

    Alan Renwick (Constitution Unit)
    Chris Hanretty, Benjamin Lauderdale and Nick Vivyan (UEA/LSE/Durham, collectively electionforecast.co.uk),
    Christopher Prosser (Oxford)
    Colin Rallings, Michael Thrasher and Galina Borisyuk (Plymouth)
    Harold Clarke, Marianne Stewart and Paul Whitely (Texas/Essex),
    Hypermind?
    Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM)?
    Martin Baxter (Electoral Calculus),
    Mary Stegmaier and Laron Williams (Missouri),
    Matt Qvortrup (CTPSR, Coventry),
    Matt Singh (Number Cruncher Politics),
    Matthew Lebo and Helmut Norpoth (Stony Brook),
    Matthew Shadwick (Ladbrokes)
    May2015.com
    Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Richard Nadeau and Éric Bélanger (Iowa/Montreal/McGill),
    Pete Burnap, Rachel Gibson, Luke Sloan, Rosalynd Southern and Matthew Williams (Cardiff/Manchester),
    Predictit,
    Predictwise?
    Robert Ford, Will Jennings, Mark Pickup and Christopher Wlezien (Manchester/Soton/SimonFraser/Texas, collectively the Polling Observatory)
    Stephen Fisher (Oxford)

    Without trawling thru everybody's f*****g twitter feed, I thought of asking you guys. Which of the above are offering predictions for 2017? I know Baxter and PredictIt are, but I don't know about the rest.

    If you can answer this question I will say nice things about you for 24 hrs.

  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107
    AlastairMeeks said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    JackW said:

    Apologies if already posted :

    Harris 18/19 Apr Sample 2,812

    Macron 25 .. Le Pen 22 .. Fillon 19 .. Melenchon 19

    http://harris-interactive.fr/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2017/04/Rapport-Harris-intentions-vote-presidentielle-france-televisions-20042017.pdf

    Macron to top the first round at 2.9 on Betfair still looks a good punt.

    I am all green on the French election, but have most of my stake money tied up there.
    I'm suffering from betting opportunity overload right now.
    Spurs are 7/4 to beat Chelsea in 90 minutes on Saturday, on current form they're the best team in the league.

    No doubt I'll regret that as I trudge out of Wembley.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,831
    edited April 2017
    Re Corbyn, not surprised about the Indy report, although that report seems to be based on three sources saying what they think he might do. What Corbyn doesn't seem to get is that even if he doesn't step down, he will get challenged very soon after June 8th by several MPs, meaning he'll have to fight the leadership election on current rules. This idiot really thought that he could push through the reselection of MP several days ago and got slapped down by the NEC and Unite.

    He'll find that in the event of a crushing election loss, the unions will turn against him. Even amongst the membership, most think he should stand down in the event of an election loss.
  • hamiltonacehamiltonace Posts: 698
    TM seems to have calculated that enough remain Tories will stay with her to target UKIP and Labour leavers with her Brexit policy.

    I am not one of those who will stay. I may be a Conservative party member but I am voting Lib Dem this election after the Daily Mail headlines today. My seat is SNP solid so it will make little difference but it is the principle.

    I never thought I would see the split up of the UK but today is the first day that I can imagine it happening.

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    AlastairMeeks said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    JackW said:

    Apologies if already posted :

    Harris 18/19 Apr Sample 2,812

    Macron 25 .. Le Pen 22 .. Fillon 19 .. Melenchon 19

    http://harris-interactive.fr/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2017/04/Rapport-Harris-intentions-vote-presidentielle-france-televisions-20042017.pdf

    Macron to top the first round at 2.9 on Betfair still looks a good punt.

    I am all green on the French election, but have most of my stake money tied up there.
    I'm suffering from betting opportunity overload right now.
    Hopefully the first round payout will finance me nicely for June. The second round in France will be less interesting.
  • freetochoosefreetochoose Posts: 1,107
    SimonStClare said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Tim Shipman‏ @ShippersUnbound
    Farage says he thinks he would win but hasn't decided whether to run. Righto...

    Farage relying on a huge personal vote then, because the UKiP numbers are dire. #Bravado.
    Not sure he has huge popularity in Thanet where the UKIP council has been shambolic
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    perdix said:

    Bromptonaut said:

    Meanwhile the EU quietly gets on with the job of sidelining the UK.

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/854797735194746885

    This is nothing new. The protectionism of France and Germany has never favoured the UK.

    Economic illiteracy of PB Tories knows no bounds.

    What could possibly have happened in 1973 that gave a big and long-lasting boost to the UK economy?

    https://twitter.com/dexeugov/status/852534216025939968
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    felix said:

    Esther Money for Tatton perchance?

    McVey?

    Wirral West is also highly marginal.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    If the lost UKIP votes are ex-Tories returning to the fold, doesn't that mainly mean much bigger Tory majorities in seats they already hold? Obviously, the Tories are going to win a number of Labour-held marginals, but I suspect that a lot if their extra votes are going to come in seats they already hold. That may mean Labour closer to 170/180 seats than 140/150.

    I think there is an element of truth in that. I banged on and on in 2015 about how the UKIP vote was likely to make the Tory vote more efficient than it had been in 2010 and an unwind of it is not likely to help in a lot of seats. But some Tories with smallish majorities facing Lib Dems will be glad of it as will some Tory challengers hunting down Labour majorities smaller than the UKIP vote in their constituencies last time out.
    IMHO, the unpopularity of the Labour party in many working class Leave constituencies puts seats in play that shouldn't be in play. IMO, all but 90 or so Labour seats are vulnerable (I'm not forecasting 140 Labour losses, but I am forecasting losses up to the 91st safest seat).
    I think they might lose some of those seats, that even on a 20 point Tory lead should on paper be safe, but they'll also hold ones that people think are good as gone. The lds are getting a bit carried away and the Tories will also pile up votes where they don't need them.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,271
    Charles said:

    I think the CPS would be loathe to make an announcement during an election especially given Starmer position on one side of the fence

    Moreover even if individual MPs are found guilty if they have been cleanly re-elected in the meantime I think the courts will not disbar them. Big fine for the party possibly, but once the electorate has spoken that is it.

    That's not my reading of the law, although I am no expert. As I understand it, you are automatically barred from public office if found guilty. It won't matter to the election agents as their job is done, but it does mean sitting MPs would have to stand down
  • BromptonautBromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    CarlottaVance said:

    Bromptonaut said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Bromptonaut said:

    Meanwhile the EU quietly gets on with the job of sidelining the UK.

    //twitter.com/hendopolis/status/854797735194746885

    The howls of outrage that the EU plan to cut us off from data have been deafening........so I expect they won't mind when we do the same.......
    And you post that as though excluding each other from valuable sources of information were somehow to be celebrated.

    And there's me thinking the Tories were the soi-disant party of economic growth.
    The furore from the REMAINERS that the UK might not share data with the EU in the absence of an agreement has not been matched when the EU plans the same.

    Funny that.
    Which is no answer to my point at all.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,376
    Sean_F said:

    DavidL said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    If the lost UKIP votes are ex-Tories returning to the fold, doesn't that mainly mean much bigger Tory majorities in seats they already hold? Obviously, the Tories are going to win a number of Labour-held marginals, but I suspect that a lot if their extra votes are going to come in seats they already hold. That may mean Labour closer to 170/180 seats than 140/150.

    I think there is an element of truth in that. I banged on and on in 2015 about how the UKIP vote was likely to make the Tory vote more efficient than it had been in 2010 and an unwind of it is not likely to help in a lot of seats. But some Tories with smallish majorities facing Lib Dems will be glad of it as will some Tory challengers hunting down Labour majorities smaller than the UKIP vote in their constituencies last time out.
    IMHO, the unpopularity of the Labour party in many working class Leave constituencies puts seats in play that shouldn't be in play. IMO, all but 90 or so Labour seats are vulnerable (I'm not forecasting 140 Labour losses, but I am forecasting losses up to the 91st safest seat).
    UKIP detached a lot of Labour support and there is no sign of it going back again. The conflict between relying upon the immigrant vote in the Inner Cities and their traditional vote elsewhere has all but split Labour in two.
This discussion has been closed.

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