politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The true purpose of GE2017 will be confirmed in the CON candid
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The true purpose of GE2017 will be confirmed in the CON candidate choices in Thanet S and LD-CON battlegrounds
The veteran Labour firebrand, Dennis Skinner, raised the Tory GE2015 campaign expenses investigation in usual style at PMQs yesterday. The prime minister responded in her usual style as well and appeared to back all the MPs involved.
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first0
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Second!0
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If Corbyn starts chanting 'Lock her [Mrs May] up'0
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Slight repost- stonking value on Tories in Bham Edgabaston and Northfield both 4/5 on Betfair Sportsbook- I've had over 1k now
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Apologies if already posted :
Harris 18/19 Apr Sample 2,812
Macron 25 .. Le Pen 22 .. Fillon 19 .. Melenchon 19
http://harris-interactive.fr/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2017/04/Rapport-Harris-intentions-vote-presidentielle-france-televisions-20042017.pdf0 -
Always amuses me that the CPS in recent years charged and oversaw the conviction of several sitting MPs, including a cabinet minister, the DPP at the time is now a prominent shadow cabinet minister.0
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Sixth, like Arsenal.0
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Any thoughts if Farage will stand in Thanet again?
Can't see him standing at all tbh, don't see the point.0 -
What can the Cons do? Not reselect the candidates and everyone will presume guilt - and no charges may ever emerge and several innocent ex-MPs will feel rightly aggrieved. This does feel a bit of a "bubble" story.......serious though it potentially is. At least one of the architects of the mess, Osborne, is no longer standing....0
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Osborne leaves politics , IMF ups UK growthTheScreamingEagles said:Always amuses me that the CPS in recent years charged and oversaw the conviction of several sitting MPs, including a cabinet minister, the DPP at the time is now a prominent shadow cabinet minister.
coincidence ?0 -
Yes, coincidence.Alanbrooke said:
Osborne leaves politics , IMF ups UK growthTheScreamingEagles said:Always amuses me that the CPS in recent years charged and oversaw the conviction of several sitting MPs, including a cabinet minister, the DPP at the time is now a prominent shadow cabinet minister.
coincidence ?
Please no Osborne barbs for a while, I'm still a man in pain.0 -
What is your evidence for such an assertion.CarlottaVance said:What can the Cons do? Not reselect the candidates and everyone will presume guilt - and no charges may ever emerge and several innocent ex-MPs will feel rightly aggrieved. This does feel a bit of a "bubble" story.......serious though it potentially is. At least one of the architects of the mess, Osborne, is no longer standing....
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Eleventh, like Arron "I know nothing about Clacton" Banks.0
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On topic it was a bloody disgrace that the CPS leaked to Channel 4 news the other day.0
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Still can't get over that ludicrous poll last night. Labour on 24%? Who could believe that?0
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Morning all.
The first YouGov poll taken after the announcement of GE2017 was a bit of a surprise and does not bode well for any UKiP candidates standing for election.
I doubt Farage will bother this time round.
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it's ok I ve moved on to SalmondTheScreamingEagles said:
Yes, coincidence.Alanbrooke said:
Osborne leaves politics , IMF ups UK growthTheScreamingEagles said:Always amuses me that the CPS in recent years charged and oversaw the conviction of several sitting MPs, including a cabinet minister, the DPP at the time is now a prominent shadow cabinet minister.
coincidence ?
Please no Osborne barbs for a while, I'm still a man in pain.
I have 2 site funding bets going that he loses his seat
I;m confidently predicting he'll be 10000 votes behind the winner
cough cough0 -
Osborne's standing in Gordon then ?Alanbrooke said:
it's ok I ve moved on to SalmondTheScreamingEagles said:
Yes, coincidence.Alanbrooke said:
Osborne leaves politics , IMF ups UK growthTheScreamingEagles said:Always amuses me that the CPS in recent years charged and oversaw the conviction of several sitting MPs, including a cabinet minister, the DPP at the time is now a prominent shadow cabinet minister.
coincidence ?
Please no Osborne barbs for a while, I'm still a man in pain.
I have 2 site funding bets going that he loses his seat
I;m confidently predicting he'll be 10000 votes behind the winner
cough cough0 -
lolTheScreamingEagles said:
Osborne's standing in Gordon then ?Alanbrooke said:
it's ok I ve moved on to SalmondTheScreamingEagles said:
Yes, coincidence.Alanbrooke said:
Osborne leaves politics , IMF ups UK growthTheScreamingEagles said:Always amuses me that the CPS in recent years charged and oversaw the conviction of several sitting MPs, including a cabinet minister, the DPP at the time is now a prominent shadow cabinet minister.
coincidence ?
Please no Osborne barbs for a while, I'm still a man in pain.
I have 2 site funding bets going that he loses his seat
I;m confidently predicting he'll be 10000 votes behind the winner
cough cough
on that basis even Id vote for him0 -
and thats when all the Con voters are supposedly on hols skiing or sunning themselvesDavidL said:Still can't get over that ludicrous poll last night. Labour on 24%? Who could believe that?
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The Betfair Sportsbook price on the Conservatives in Birmingham Edgbaston is astonishingly generous - I've backed it from 11/10 and it's still 4/5. Without Gisela Stuart for Labour, this must surely be closer to 2/5 or shorter.0
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Absolutely. We don't want an American-style system where prosecutors are public figures. Starmer was too much of a politician for DPP, we want them to carefully consider then announce charges - no background briefing of journalists and no hyped press conferences.TheScreamingEagles said:On topic it was a bloody disgrace that the CPS leaked to Channel 4 news the other day.
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Didn't the constituency vote heavily for remain?AlastairMeeks said:The Betfair Sportsbook price on the Conservatives in Birmingham Edgbaston is astonishingly generous - I've backed it from 11/10 and it's still 4/5. Without Gisela Stuart for Labour, this must surely be closer to 2/5 or shorter.
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Has mentioning the new editor of the Evening Standard become a taboo subject on PB....!0
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Surely they are back by now?Alanbrooke said:
and thats when all the Con voters are supposedly on hols skiing or sunning themselvesDavidL said:Still can't get over that ludicrous poll last night. Labour on 24%? Who could believe that?
I mentioned to my wife that it looks like I would be spending time up in Blairgowrie again this election as it is a target Tory seat. She suggested I pop into the High School and teach some maths whilst I was there. The High School in John Swinney's seat (Minister for Education) wrote to parents asking if they could help as the exams approached as they didn't have enough maths teachers. Not sure about Salmond but the SNP's obsession with constitutional matters, as opposed to, you know, running the country, just might bite them this time.0 -
Wasn't that a nailed on gain the last time except Stuart held on? I agree without her its a gain but that woman is a hell of a campaigner.AlastairMeeks said:The Betfair Sportsbook price on the Conservatives in Birmingham Edgbaston is astonishingly generous - I've backed it from 11/10 and it's still 4/5. Without Gisela Stuart for Labour, this must surely be closer to 2/5 or shorter.
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Its still school holidays here in the North East0
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On topic - don't know if this will be a big story for the election.
But i could certainly see it coming to taint a May election victory if it turns out it is Tory MPs only.
It could also have been a compelling rational for labour to vote against the election though.0 -
Well Alanbrooke is in therapy, his bete noir has gone. TSE is struggling.. We need a ELE event for Labour to cheer them up.SimonStClare said:Has mentioning the new editor of the Evening Standard become a taboo subject on PB....!
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It voted Remain. I'm not sure the average Edgbastonian is a natural supporter of Jeremy Corbyn though. A seat held by Labour at the last election against the odds on a huge personal vote looks exposed with a large further adverse swing and without that personal vote.rkrkrk said:
Didn't the constituency vote heavily for remain?AlastairMeeks said:The Betfair Sportsbook price on the Conservatives in Birmingham Edgbaston is astonishingly generous - I've backed it from 11/10 and it's still 4/5. Without Gisela Stuart for Labour, this must surely be closer to 2/5 or shorter.
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Yup. I've said the West Midlands will be the worst region for a Corbyn led Labour Party.AlastairMeeks said:The Betfair Sportsbook price on the Conservatives in Birmingham Edgbaston is astonishingly generous - I've backed it from 11/10 and it's still 4/5. Without Gisela Stuart for Labour, this must surely be closer to 2/5 or shorter.
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we.re still on hols in the MidlandsDavidL said:
Surely they are back by now?Alanbrooke said:
and thats when all the Con voters are supposedly on hols skiing or sunning themselvesDavidL said:Still can't get over that ludicrous poll last night. Labour on 24%? Who could believe that?
I mentioned to my wife that it looks like I would be spending time up in Blairgowrie again this election as it is a target Tory seat. She suggested I pop into the High School and teach some maths whilst I was there. The High School in John Swinney's seat (Minister for Education) wrote to parents asking if they could help as the exams approached as they didn't have enough maths teachers. Not sure about Salmond but the SNP's obsession with constitutional matters, as opposed to, you know, running the country, just might bite them this time.
Ive a bet with malc and JPJ2 re Salmond. More on the "brave" end of the spectrum but should provide 7 weeks of crack as I try to get malc to cough up early :-)0 -
Sounds an excellent investment.Alanbrooke said:
we.re still on hols in the MidlandsDavidL said:
Surely they are back by now?Alanbrooke said:
and thats when all the Con voters are supposedly on hols skiing or sunning themselvesDavidL said:Still can't get over that ludicrous poll last night. Labour on 24%? Who could believe that?
I mentioned to my wife that it looks like I would be spending time up in Blairgowrie again this election as it is a target Tory seat. She suggested I pop into the High School and teach some maths whilst I was there. The High School in John Swinney's seat (Minister for Education) wrote to parents asking if they could help as the exams approached as they didn't have enough maths teachers. Not sure about Salmond but the SNP's obsession with constitutional matters, as opposed to, you know, running the country, just might bite them this time.
Ive a bet with malc and JPJ2 re Salmond. More on the "brave" end of the spectrum but should provide 7 weeks of crack as I try to get malc to cough up early :-)0 -
This time last year Cameron and Osborne were the smuggest and most influential politicians in the country, the fact neither is now an MP restores my faith in politics a little.
As the polls show, we're tired of vacuous, hubristic rich boys using the nation as a play thing.0 -
No.SimonStClare said:Has mentioning the new editor of the Evening Standard become a taboo subject on PB....!
You can talk about how sad that he isn't a MP, PM, or Chancellor, or what Johnny Mercer said
https://twitter.com/JohnnyMercerMP/status/8546641358748385280 -
Is she definitely not standing? She was being somewhat ambiguous on R4 yesterday morning. Need to speak to my Constituency party etc.AlastairMeeks said:
It voted Remain. I'm not sure the average Edgbastonian is a natural supporter of Jeremy Corbyn though. A seat held by Labour at the last election against the odds on a huge personal vote looks exposed with a large further adverse swing and without that personal vote.rkrkrk said:
Didn't the constituency vote heavily for remain?AlastairMeeks said:The Betfair Sportsbook price on the Conservatives in Birmingham Edgbaston is astonishingly generous - I've backed it from 11/10 and it's still 4/5. Without Gisela Stuart for Labour, this must surely be closer to 2/5 or shorter.
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http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/birmingham-edgbaston-mp-gisela-stuart-12916429DavidL said:
Is she definitely not standing? She was being somewhat ambiguous on R4 yesterday morning. Need to speak to my Constituency party etc.AlastairMeeks said:
It voted Remain. I'm not sure the average Edgbastonian is a natural supporter of Jeremy Corbyn though. A seat held by Labour at the last election against the odds on a huge personal vote looks exposed with a large further adverse swing and without that personal vote.rkrkrk said:
Didn't the constituency vote heavily for remain?AlastairMeeks said:The Betfair Sportsbook price on the Conservatives in Birmingham Edgbaston is astonishingly generous - I've backed it from 11/10 and it's still 4/5. Without Gisela Stuart for Labour, this must surely be closer to 2/5 or shorter.
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Getting rid of the triple lock is a bold move. It shows a certain hubris and complacency to start doing massive diarrhetic shits on your core vote assuming they have nowhere else to go.0
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If we're throwing tips around my contribution.
1. Edinburgh South Labour hold
2. Manchester Withington Lib Dem win from Labour0 -
http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/birmingham-edgbaston-mp-gisela-stuart-12916429DavidL said:
Is she definitely not standing? She was being somewhat ambiguous on R4 yesterday morning. Need to speak to my Constituency party etc.AlastairMeeks said:
It voted Remain. I'm not sure the average Edgbastonian is a natural supporter of Jeremy Corbyn though. A seat held by Labour at the last election against the odds on a huge personal vote looks exposed with a large further adverse swing and without that personal vote.rkrkrk said:
Didn't the constituency vote heavily for remain?AlastairMeeks said:The Betfair Sportsbook price on the Conservatives in Birmingham Edgbaston is astonishingly generous - I've backed it from 11/10 and it's still 4/5. Without Gisela Stuart for Labour, this must surely be closer to 2/5 or shorter.
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Seats like Wigan and Leigh could play the parts of Brent North and Southgate on those numbers.DavidL said:Still can't get over that ludicrous poll last night. Labour on 24%? Who could believe that?
The Tories last won Wigan in 1910.
By my reckoning, the Tories would win an overall majority in Wales, for the first time since the 1850's.0 -
The fair thing would be to allow them to stand. If there are by-elections after the general election because of malpractice in the previous general election, it won't matter so much with the Tories' stonking majority.CarlottaVance said:What can the Cons do? Not reselect the candidates and everyone will presume guilt - and no charges may ever emerge and several innocent ex-MPs will feel rightly aggrieved. This does feel a bit of a "bubble" story.......serious though it potentially is. At least one of the architects of the mess, Osborne, is no longer standing....
We'll see.0 -
I don't know how the chaps at Betfair Sportsbook are selecting their constituencies to price up (they seem awfully scattergun and random to me, and there aren't very many of them) but I've also nibbled Edgbaston.
I backed Northfield at 12/1 last time and, whilst I'm pretty confident it will go this time, I'm not leaping out of bed to back the Tories in it at 4/5.0 -
Agreed. Doesn't help that their former boss is now high up in the Labour Party.TheScreamingEagles said:On topic it was a bloody disgrace that the CPS leaked to Channel 4 news the other day.
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Another loss. Not on the Osborne scale of course but another distinctive and interesting voice lost from the Commons. There are far too few people of talent in UK politics these days. It looks as if after this election there may be even fewer.Pong said:
http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/birmingham-edgbaston-mp-gisela-stuart-12916429DavidL said:
Is she definitely not standing? She was being somewhat ambiguous on R4 yesterday morning. Need to speak to my Constituency party etc.AlastairMeeks said:
It voted Remain. I'm not sure the average Edgbastonian is a natural supporter of Jeremy Corbyn though. A seat held by Labour at the last election against the odds on a huge personal vote looks exposed with a large further adverse swing and without that personal vote.rkrkrk said:
Didn't the constituency vote heavily for remain?AlastairMeeks said:The Betfair Sportsbook price on the Conservatives in Birmingham Edgbaston is astonishingly generous - I've backed it from 11/10 and it's still 4/5. Without Gisela Stuart for Labour, this must surely be closer to 2/5 or shorter.
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I'm interested in evidence of the personal vote effect. First, very few people know the names of their MP. Second, I don't see how people so easily changes voting intentions on account of personalities. I wouldn't.AlastairMeeks said:
http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/birmingham-edgbaston-mp-gisela-stuart-12916429DavidL said:
Is she definitely not standing? She was being somewhat ambiguous on R4 yesterday morning. Need to speak to my Constituency party etc.AlastairMeeks said:
It voted Remain. I'm not sure the average Edgbastonian is a natural supporter of Jeremy Corbyn though. A seat held by Labour at the last election against the odds on a huge personal vote looks exposed with a large further adverse swing and without that personal vote.rkrkrk said:
Didn't the constituency vote heavily for remain?AlastairMeeks said:The Betfair Sportsbook price on the Conservatives in Birmingham Edgbaston is astonishingly generous - I've backed it from 11/10 and it's still 4/5. Without Gisela Stuart for Labour, this must surely be closer to 2/5 or shorter.
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Looks like starting alphabetically- sort ofCasino_Royale said:I don't know how the chaps at Betfair Sportsbook are selecting their constituencies to price up (they seem awfully scattergun and random to me, and there aren't very many of them) but I've also nibbled Edgbaston.
I backed Northfield at 12/1 last time and, whilst I'm pretty confident it will go this time, I'm not leaping out of bed to back the Tories in it at 4/5.
Dont agree on Northfield!0 -
Apart from her backing for Brexit what was distinctive and interesting about Gisela Stuart? She seemed a straight down the line moderate Labour MP to me.DavidL said:
Another loss. Not on the Osborne scale of course but another distinctive and interesting voice lost from the Commons. There are far too few people of talent in UK politics these days. It looks as if after this election there may be even fewer.Pong said:
http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/birmingham-edgbaston-mp-gisela-stuart-12916429DavidL said:
Is she definitely not standing? She was being somewhat ambiguous on R4 yesterday morning. Need to speak to my Constituency party etc.AlastairMeeks said:
It voted Remain. I'm not sure the average Edgbastonian is a natural supporter of Jeremy Corbyn though. A seat held by Labour at the last election against the odds on a huge personal vote looks exposed with a large further adverse swing and without that personal vote.rkrkrk said:
Didn't the constituency vote heavily for remain?AlastairMeeks said:The Betfair Sportsbook price on the Conservatives in Birmingham Edgbaston is astonishingly generous - I've backed it from 11/10 and it's still 4/5. Without Gisela Stuart for Labour, this must surely be closer to 2/5 or shorter.
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I'm betting that at the very least they will make sure that none of the Agents under suspicion are Agent again. That way if they are disqualified, it doesn't affect the 2017 result.0
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Well, when I say betting, I mean predicting, obviously no-one's going to offer a book on appointed election agents!po8crg said:I'm betting that at the very least they will make sure that none of the Agents under suspicion are Agent again. That way if they are disqualified, it doesn't affect the 2017 result.
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Meanwhile the EU quietly gets on with the job of sidelining the UK.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/8547977351947468850 -
If the lost UKIP votes are ex-Tories returning to the fold, doesn't that mainly mean much bigger Tory majorities in seats they already hold? Obviously, the Tories are going to win a number of Labour-held marginals, but I suspect that a lot if their extra votes are going to come in seats they already hold. That may mean Labour closer to 170/180 seats than 140/150.0
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You can double up your bets with Paddy Power, who are offering the same prices as Betfair Sportsbook. Boom.noisywinter said:
Looks like starting alphabetically- sort ofCasino_Royale said:I don't know how the chaps at Betfair Sportsbook are selecting their constituencies to price up (they seem awfully scattergun and random to me, and there aren't very many of them) but I've also nibbled Edgbaston.
I backed Northfield at 12/1 last time and, whilst I'm pretty confident it will go this time, I'm not leaping out of bed to back the Tories in it at 4/5.
Dont agree on Northfield!0 -
Good to see agent Corbyn is doing his bit for Tory funding: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-396491190
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Guardian long read on the battle bus - expenses story:
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2017/mar/23/conservative-election-scandal-victory-2015-expenses0 -
I think there is an element of truth in that. I banged on and on in 2015 about how the UKIP vote was likely to make the Tory vote more efficient than it had been in 2010 and an unwind of it is not likely to help in a lot of seats. But some Tories with smallish majorities facing Lib Dems will be glad of it as will some Tory challengers hunting down Labour majorities smaller than the UKIP vote in their constituencies last time out.SouthamObserver said:If the lost UKIP votes are ex-Tories returning to the fold, doesn't that mainly mean much bigger Tory majorities in seats they already hold? Obviously, the Tories are going to win a number of Labour-held marginals, but I suspect that a lot if their extra votes are going to come in seats they already hold. That may mean Labour closer to 170/180 seats than 140/150.
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I'm not convinced that the election will be decided on so one-dimensional a factor as the Lib Dems hope.AlastairMeeks said:
It voted Remain. I'm not sure the average Edgbastonian is a natural supporter of Jeremy Corbyn though. A seat held by Labour at the last election against the odds on a huge personal vote looks exposed with a large further adverse swing and without that personal vote.rkrkrk said:
Didn't the constituency vote heavily for remain?AlastairMeeks said:The Betfair Sportsbook price on the Conservatives in Birmingham Edgbaston is astonishingly generous - I've backed it from 11/10 and it's still 4/5. Without Gisela Stuart for Labour, this must surely be closer to 2/5 or shorter.
Speaking of which, can anyone clarify what their position on the A50 negotiations actually is at the moment? I can't tell if it's "try to overturn the referendum and ask to stay in on whatever terms are necessary", "hold a deal-or-no-deal referendum on the outcome of the talks" or "push for EFTA-EEA membership". Last I heard it seemed to be the last of these, but it's rather late to start going for that now - that should have started on June 24th, but so much time, effort and money (Gina Miller) was wasted fighting a lost cause instead.0 -
The howls of outrage that the EU plan to cut us off from data have been deafening........so I expect they won't mind when we do the same.......Bromptonaut said:Meanwhile the EU quietly gets on with the job of sidelining the UK.
//twitter.com/hendopolis/status/8547977351947468850 -
It's what we voted for.Bromptonaut said:Meanwhile the EU quietly gets on with the job of sidelining the UK.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/854797735194746885
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The best constituency bets are likely to be in Labour held seats with a strong vote for both Con and UKIP. I have just had a punt on Tories take Dagenham on Sportsbook. 11/4 seemed good odds.DavidL said:
I think there is an element of truth in that. I banged on and on in 2015 about how the UKIP vote was likely to make the Tory vote more efficient than it had been in 2010 and an unwind of it is not likely to help in a lot of seats. But some Tories with smallish majorities facing Lib Dems will be glad of it as will some Tory challengers hunting down Labour majorities smaller than the UKIP vote in their constituencies last time out.SouthamObserver said:If the lost UKIP votes are ex-Tories returning to the fold, doesn't that mainly mean much bigger Tory majorities in seats they already hold? Obviously, the Tories are going to win a number of Labour-held marginals, but I suspect that a lot if their extra votes are going to come in seats they already hold. That may mean Labour closer to 170/180 seats than 140/150.
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Esther Money for Tatton perchance?0
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Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound
Farage says he thinks he would win but hasn't decided whether to run. Righto...0 -
Brexit means Brexit. We sidelined ourselves.Bromptonaut said:Meanwhile the EU quietly gets on with the job of sidelining the UK.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/8547977351947468850 -
foxinsoxuk said:
Brexit means Brexit. We sidelined ourselves.Bromptonaut said:Meanwhile the EU quietly gets on with the job of sidelining the UK.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/854797735194746885165166 UN member states are outside the EU!0 -
Who is this 'we' of which thou dost speak?foxinsoxuk said:
Brexit means Brexit. We sidelined ourselves.Bromptonaut said:Meanwhile the EU quietly gets on with the job of sidelining the UK.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/8547977351947468850 -
Yes, they are the obvious ones. In Scotland look for seats with a strong Unionist majority that the SNP won as a result of a split vote the last time. These are classically ex Lib Dem seats where the Tories moved into second last time out but there are still thousands of Lib Dem voters to squeeze. Examples Berwickshire and Aberdeen West and Kincardine. The latter has the advantage that the Tories won the constituency seat at Holyrood only a year ago and looks to me the best prospect of a tory gain in the country.foxinsoxuk said:
The best constituency bets are likely to be in Labour held seats with a strong vote for both Con and UKIP. I have just had a punt on Tories take Dagenham on Sportsbook. 11/4 seemed good odds.DavidL said:
I think there is an element of truth in that. I banged on and on in 2015 about how the UKIP vote was likely to make the Tory vote more efficient than it had been in 2010 and an unwind of it is not likely to help in a lot of seats. But some Tories with smallish majorities facing Lib Dems will be glad of it as will some Tory challengers hunting down Labour majorities smaller than the UKIP vote in their constituencies last time out.SouthamObserver said:If the lost UKIP votes are ex-Tories returning to the fold, doesn't that mainly mean much bigger Tory majorities in seats they already hold? Obviously, the Tories are going to win a number of Labour-held marginals, but I suspect that a lot if their extra votes are going to come in seats they already hold. That may mean Labour closer to 170/180 seats than 140/150.
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I think the CPS would be loathe to make an announcement during an election especially given Starmer position on one side of the fence
Moreover even if individual MPs are found guilty if they have been cleanly re-elected in the meantime I think the courts will not disbar them. Big fine for the party possibly, but once the electorate has spoken that is it.0 -
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Glad you've downgraded from "convicted" to "oversaw the conviction" but they didn't really. That's the judge's role. The CPS is naught but the state prosecutor.TheScreamingEagles said:Always amuses me that the CPS in recent years charged and oversaw the conviction of several sitting MPs, including a cabinet minister, the DPP at the time is now a prominent shadow cabinet minister.
Clue's in the name...0 -
I think normally that would be right but they have a deadline that was extended by the Courts to bring charges. They can't do it later, the Court can only extend the deadline once. I think the deadline is within the month.Charles said:I think the CPS would be loathe to make an announcement during an election especially given Starmer position on one side of the fence
Moreover even if individual MPs are found guilty if they have been cleanly re-elected in the meantime I think the courts will not disbar them. Big fine for the party possibly, but once the electorate has spoken that is it.0 -
That's a good call, agents will be under much more scrutiny for financial breaches than candidates.po8crg said:I'm betting that at the very least they will make sure that none of the Agents under suspicion are Agent again. That way if they are disqualified, it doesn't affect the 2017 result.
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And you post that as though excluding each other from valuable sources of information were somehow to be celebrated.CarlottaVance said:
The howls of outrage that the EU plan to cut us off from data have been deafening........so I expect they won't mind when we do the same.......Bromptonaut said:Meanwhile the EU quietly gets on with the job of sidelining the UK.
//twitter.com/hendopolis/status/854797735194746885
And there's me thinking the Tories were the soi-disant party of economic growth.
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Macron to top the first round at 2.9 on Betfair still looks a good punt.JackW said:Apologies if already posted :
Harris 18/19 Apr Sample 2,812
Macron 25 .. Le Pen 22 .. Fillon 19 .. Melenchon 19
http://harris-interactive.fr/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2017/04/Rapport-Harris-intentions-vote-presidentielle-france-televisions-20042017.pdf
I am all green on the French election, but have most of my stake money tied up there.0 -
Farage relying on a huge personal vote then, because the UKiP numbers are dire. #Bravado.CarlottaVance said:Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound
Farage says he thinks he would win but hasn't decided whether to run. Righto...0 -
If the EU are excluding British companies from their government contracts, obviously they won't mind that we start giving our own such contracts exclusively to British companies.CarlottaVance said:
The howls of outrage that the EU plan to cut us off from data have been deafening........so I expect they won't mind when we do the same.......Bromptonaut said:Meanwhile the EU quietly gets on with the job of sidelining the UK.
//twitter.com/hendopolis/status/8547977351947468850 -
This is nothing new. The protectionism of France and Germany has never favoured the UK.Bromptonaut said:Meanwhile the EU quietly gets on with the job of sidelining the UK.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/854797735194746885
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They prosecute but they also make the charging decision.Charles said:
Glad you've downgraded from "convicted" to "oversaw the conviction" but they didn't really. That's the judge's role. The CPS is naught but the state prosecutor.TheScreamingEagles said:Always amuses me that the CPS in recent years charged and oversaw the conviction of several sitting MPs, including a cabinet minister, the DPP at the time is now a prominent shadow cabinet minister.
Clue's in the name...0 -
Spotted this yesterday but don't think you were around at the time - shame the first Meeks - Mortimer bet is moot.AlastairMeeks said:
http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/birmingham-edgbaston-mp-gisela-stuart-12916429DavidL said:
Is she definitely not standing? She was being somewhat ambiguous on R4 yesterday morning. Need to speak to my Constituency party etc.AlastairMeeks said:
It voted Remain. I'm not sure the average Edgbastonian is a natural supporter of Jeremy Corbyn though. A seat held by Labour at the last election against the odds on a huge personal vote looks exposed with a large further adverse swing and without that personal vote.rkrkrk said:
Didn't the constituency vote heavily for remain?AlastairMeeks said:The Betfair Sportsbook price on the Conservatives in Birmingham Edgbaston is astonishingly generous - I've backed it from 11/10 and it's still 4/5. Without Gisela Stuart for Labour, this must surely be closer to 2/5 or shorter.
i'm sure there will be lots more opportunities.
From the Betfair sportsbook I'm also on Barrow and Bham Northfields Tory gains...
Edgbaston, at 4/7, still seems great value....0 -
On the first full day of general election campaigning, the Labour leader will say "powerful people" do not want him to win the snap poll on 8 June.DavidL said:Good to see agent Corbyn is doing his bit for Tory funding: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39649119
One word too many there, Jez.0 -
BTW - David Goodhart's book 'The Road to Somewhere' is very good. Just reading it atm, and the 'somewheres/anywheres' dichotomy has just been mentioned on R4's thought for the day.0
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The furore from the REMAINERS that the UK might not share data with the EU in the absence of an agreement has not been matched when the EU plans the same.Bromptonaut said:
And you post that as though excluding each other from valuable sources of information were somehow to be celebrated.CarlottaVance said:
The howls of outrage that the EU plan to cut us off from data have been deafening........so I expect they won't mind when we do the same.......Bromptonaut said:Meanwhile the EU quietly gets on with the job of sidelining the UK.
//twitter.com/hendopolis/status/854797735194746885
And there's me thinking the Tories were the soi-disant party of economic growth.
Funny that.0 -
Travelled by train recently?Sandpit said:
If the EU are excluding British companies from their government contracts, obviously they won't mind that we start giving our own such contracts exclusively to British companies.CarlottaVance said:
The howls of outrage that the EU plan to cut us off from data have been deafening........so I expect they won't mind when we do the same.......Bromptonaut said:Meanwhile the EU quietly gets on with the job of sidelining the UK.
//twitter.com/hendopolis/status/8547977351947468850 -
IMHO, the unpopularity of the Labour party in many working class Leave constituencies puts seats in play that shouldn't be in play. IMO, all but 90 or so Labour seats are vulnerable (I'm not forecasting 140 Labour losses, but I am forecasting losses up to the 91st safest seat).DavidL said:
I think there is an element of truth in that. I banged on and on in 2015 about how the UKIP vote was likely to make the Tory vote more efficient than it had been in 2010 and an unwind of it is not likely to help in a lot of seats. But some Tories with smallish majorities facing Lib Dems will be glad of it as will some Tory challengers hunting down Labour majorities smaller than the UKIP vote in their constituencies last time out.SouthamObserver said:If the lost UKIP votes are ex-Tories returning to the fold, doesn't that mainly mean much bigger Tory majorities in seats they already hold? Obviously, the Tories are going to win a number of Labour-held marginals, but I suspect that a lot if their extra votes are going to come in seats they already hold. That may mean Labour closer to 170/180 seats than 140/150.
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I'm suffering from betting opportunity overload right now.foxinsoxuk said:
Macron to top the first round at 2.9 on Betfair still looks a good punt.JackW said:Apologies if already posted :
Harris 18/19 Apr Sample 2,812
Macron 25 .. Le Pen 22 .. Fillon 19 .. Melenchon 19
http://harris-interactive.fr/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2017/04/Rapport-Harris-intentions-vote-presidentielle-france-televisions-20042017.pdf
I am all green on the French election, but have most of my stake money tied up there.0 -
I wonder if Carlotta agrees wholeheartedly with this bit of Nat bashing:Bromptonaut said:
And you post that as though excluding each other from valuable sources of information were somehow to be celebrated.CarlottaVance said:
The howls of outrage that the EU plan to cut us off from data have been deafening........so I expect they won't mind when we do the same.......Bromptonaut said:Meanwhile the EU quietly gets on with the job of sidelining the UK.
//twitter.com/hendopolis/status/854797735194746885
And there's me thinking the Tories were the soi-disant party of economic growth.
https://twitter.com/speccoffeehouse/status/8549462388396154880 -
viewcode said:
OK you maggots, time to earn your crusts. The following academics (and others) made predictions for the 2015 General Election and/or the 2016 EU Referendum:
Alan Renwick (Constitution Unit)
Chris Hanretty, Benjamin Lauderdale and Nick Vivyan (UEA/LSE/Durham, collectively electionforecast.co.uk),
Christopher Prosser (Oxford)
Colin Rallings, Michael Thrasher and Galina Borisyuk (Plymouth)
Harold Clarke, Marianne Stewart and Paul Whitely (Texas/Essex),
Hypermind?
Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM)?
Martin Baxter (Electoral Calculus),
Mary Stegmaier and Laron Williams (Missouri),
Matt Qvortrup (CTPSR, Coventry),
Matt Singh (Number Cruncher Politics),
Matthew Lebo and Helmut Norpoth (Stony Brook),
Matthew Shadwick (Ladbrokes)
May2015.com
Michael S. Lewis-Beck, Richard Nadeau and Éric Bélanger (Iowa/Montreal/McGill),
Pete Burnap, Rachel Gibson, Luke Sloan, Rosalynd Southern and Matthew Williams (Cardiff/Manchester),
Predictit,
Predictwise?
Robert Ford, Will Jennings, Mark Pickup and Christopher Wlezien (Manchester/Soton/SimonFraser/Texas, collectively the Polling Observatory)
Stephen Fisher (Oxford)
Without trawling thru everybody's f*****g twitter feed, I thought of asking you guys. Which of the above are offering predictions for 2017? I know Baxter and PredictIt are, but I don't know about the rest.
If you can answer this question I will say nice things about you for 24 hrs.0 -
Spurs are 7/4 to beat Chelsea in 90 minutes on Saturday, on current form they're the best team in the league.AlastairMeeks said:
I'm suffering from betting opportunity overload right now.foxinsoxuk said:
Macron to top the first round at 2.9 on Betfair still looks a good punt.JackW said:Apologies if already posted :
Harris 18/19 Apr Sample 2,812
Macron 25 .. Le Pen 22 .. Fillon 19 .. Melenchon 19
http://harris-interactive.fr/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2017/04/Rapport-Harris-intentions-vote-presidentielle-france-televisions-20042017.pdf
I am all green on the French election, but have most of my stake money tied up there.
No doubt I'll regret that as I trudge out of Wembley.0 -
Re Corbyn, not surprised about the Indy report, although that report seems to be based on three sources saying what they think he might do. What Corbyn doesn't seem to get is that even if he doesn't step down, he will get challenged very soon after June 8th by several MPs, meaning he'll have to fight the leadership election on current rules. This idiot really thought that he could push through the reselection of MP several days ago and got slapped down by the NEC and Unite.
He'll find that in the event of a crushing election loss, the unions will turn against him. Even amongst the membership, most think he should stand down in the event of an election loss.0 -
TM seems to have calculated that enough remain Tories will stay with her to target UKIP and Labour leavers with her Brexit policy.
I am not one of those who will stay. I may be a Conservative party member but I am voting Lib Dem this election after the Daily Mail headlines today. My seat is SNP solid so it will make little difference but it is the principle.
I never thought I would see the split up of the UK but today is the first day that I can imagine it happening.
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Hopefully the first round payout will finance me nicely for June. The second round in France will be less interesting.AlastairMeeks said:
I'm suffering from betting opportunity overload right now.foxinsoxuk said:
Macron to top the first round at 2.9 on Betfair still looks a good punt.JackW said:Apologies if already posted :
Harris 18/19 Apr Sample 2,812
Macron 25 .. Le Pen 22 .. Fillon 19 .. Melenchon 19
http://harris-interactive.fr/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2017/04/Rapport-Harris-intentions-vote-presidentielle-france-televisions-20042017.pdf
I am all green on the French election, but have most of my stake money tied up there.0 -
Not sure he has huge popularity in Thanet where the UKIP council has been shambolicSimonStClare said:
Farage relying on a huge personal vote then, because the UKiP numbers are dire. #Bravado.CarlottaVance said:Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound
Farage says he thinks he would win but hasn't decided whether to run. Righto...0 -
Economic illiteracy of PB Tories knows no bounds.perdix said:
This is nothing new. The protectionism of France and Germany has never favoured the UK.Bromptonaut said:Meanwhile the EU quietly gets on with the job of sidelining the UK.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/854797735194746885
What could possibly have happened in 1973 that gave a big and long-lasting boost to the UK economy?
https://twitter.com/dexeugov/status/8525342160259399680 -
I think they might lose some of those seats, that even on a 20 point Tory lead should on paper be safe, but they'll also hold ones that people think are good as gone. The lds are getting a bit carried away and the Tories will also pile up votes where they don't need them.Sean_F said:
IMHO, the unpopularity of the Labour party in many working class Leave constituencies puts seats in play that shouldn't be in play. IMO, all but 90 or so Labour seats are vulnerable (I'm not forecasting 140 Labour losses, but I am forecasting losses up to the 91st safest seat).DavidL said:
I think there is an element of truth in that. I banged on and on in 2015 about how the UKIP vote was likely to make the Tory vote more efficient than it had been in 2010 and an unwind of it is not likely to help in a lot of seats. But some Tories with smallish majorities facing Lib Dems will be glad of it as will some Tory challengers hunting down Labour majorities smaller than the UKIP vote in their constituencies last time out.SouthamObserver said:If the lost UKIP votes are ex-Tories returning to the fold, doesn't that mainly mean much bigger Tory majorities in seats they already hold? Obviously, the Tories are going to win a number of Labour-held marginals, but I suspect that a lot if their extra votes are going to come in seats they already hold. That may mean Labour closer to 170/180 seats than 140/150.
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That's not my reading of the law, although I am no expert. As I understand it, you are automatically barred from public office if found guilty. It won't matter to the election agents as their job is done, but it does mean sitting MPs would have to stand downCharles said:I think the CPS would be loathe to make an announcement during an election especially given Starmer position on one side of the fence
Moreover even if individual MPs are found guilty if they have been cleanly re-elected in the meantime I think the courts will not disbar them. Big fine for the party possibly, but once the electorate has spoken that is it.0 -
Which is no answer to my point at all.CarlottaVance said:
The furore from the REMAINERS that the UK might not share data with the EU in the absence of an agreement has not been matched when the EU plans the same.Bromptonaut said:
And you post that as though excluding each other from valuable sources of information were somehow to be celebrated.CarlottaVance said:
The howls of outrage that the EU plan to cut us off from data have been deafening........so I expect they won't mind when we do the same.......Bromptonaut said:Meanwhile the EU quietly gets on with the job of sidelining the UK.
//twitter.com/hendopolis/status/854797735194746885
And there's me thinking the Tories were the soi-disant party of economic growth.
Funny that.0 -
UKIP detached a lot of Labour support and there is no sign of it going back again. The conflict between relying upon the immigrant vote in the Inner Cities and their traditional vote elsewhere has all but split Labour in two.Sean_F said:
IMHO, the unpopularity of the Labour party in many working class Leave constituencies puts seats in play that shouldn't be in play. IMO, all but 90 or so Labour seats are vulnerable (I'm not forecasting 140 Labour losses, but I am forecasting losses up to the 91st safest seat).DavidL said:
I think there is an element of truth in that. I banged on and on in 2015 about how the UKIP vote was likely to make the Tory vote more efficient than it had been in 2010 and an unwind of it is not likely to help in a lot of seats. But some Tories with smallish majorities facing Lib Dems will be glad of it as will some Tory challengers hunting down Labour majorities smaller than the UKIP vote in their constituencies last time out.SouthamObserver said:If the lost UKIP votes are ex-Tories returning to the fold, doesn't that mainly mean much bigger Tory majorities in seats they already hold? Obviously, the Tories are going to win a number of Labour-held marginals, but I suspect that a lot if their extra votes are going to come in seats they already hold. That may mean Labour closer to 170/180 seats than 140/150.
0
