politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why the Conservatives may fall short of their hopes

How will voters' looking forward to the June GE affect the 4 May locals? Tory boost? Libdem boost?

SeanT said:

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

Anorak said:

MikeSmithson said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Sean_F said:

I certainly think Justin124 merits a ban for his comments on the last thread.

Pure filth, the likes we haven't seem on here for a long long time.

It has been deleted

Assuming you're talking about amputations, Hitler, "lying bitches", and polonium, then the comments are all still there. If that's the moderate stuff that wasn't deleted, then, well, I'm not sure what to say...

Speaking as an egregiously offensive bastard, I'm all agog to know what Justin said that was SO bad, to shock so many?

I was out walking the Sussex bluebell woods all day - and very very beautiful they were. Perfect Spring weather. Lovely.

He said Theresa May should eat a polonium pill and he hoped she went blind and lost a few limbs as a result of her diabetes.

Eek. Yes. Possibly a line crossed there. Tho I'm sure I've done worse.

That was just this afternoon...This morning it was jezza and a heart attack and last night killing tories...It was red ken-esque bants...

RobD said:

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

Anorak said:

MikeSmithson said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Sean_F said:

I certainly think Justin124 merits a ban for his comments on the last thread.

Pure filth, the likes we haven't seem on here for a long long time.

It has been deleted

Assuming you're talking about amputations, Hitler, "lying bitches", and polonium, then the comments are all still there. If that's the moderate stuff that wasn't deleted, then, well, I'm not sure what to say...

Speaking as an egregiously offensive bastard, I'm all agog to know what Justin said that was SO bad, to shock so many?

I was out walking the Sussex bluebell woods all day - and very very beautiful they were. Perfect Spring weather. Lovely.

He said Theresa May should eat a polonium pill and he hoped she went blind and lost a few limbs as a result of her diabetes.

And he won't live it down quickly. PB has a long memory...

Indeed some PBers have such amazing powers of memory they can remember all my screen names!

What is stopping Labour MPs simply saying en masse that they will not put forward Corbyn as PM candidate and instead will be campaigning on the intention to install Dan Jarvis in as PM should they win the election.

Basically the PLP hijacks the party. Undemocratic, sure, but would it turn out so badly for them afterwards? If they are already going to face a slaughter, why not try this gamble?

Edit: Because Corbyn will almost certainly not step down after his loss, he hasn't finished remaking the party

bobajobPB said:

RobD said:

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

Anorak said:

MikeSmithson said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Sean_F said:

I certainly think Justin124 merits a ban for his comments on the last thread.

Pure filth, the likes we haven't seem on here for a long long time.

It has been deleted

Assuming you're talking about amputations, Hitler, "lying bitches", and polonium, then the comments are all still there. If that's the moderate stuff that wasn't deleted, then, well, I'm not sure what to say...

Speaking as an egregiously offensive bastard, I'm all agog to know what Justin said that was SO bad, to shock so many?

I was out walking the Sussex bluebell woods all day - and very very beautiful they were. Perfect Spring weather. Lovely.

He said Theresa May should eat a polonium pill and he hoped she went blind and lost a few limbs as a result of her diabetes.

And he won't live it down quickly. PB has a long memory...

Indeed some PBers have such amazing powers of memory they can remember all my screen names!

You make it too easy. We also remember that you've been warned this is your last

SeanT said:

AnneJGP said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

rcs1000 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Cable was bloody useless in the coalition. All their supposed wisdom and he got the square root of fuck all done. In comparison beaker the former park ranger was very harshly treated to lose their seat. Him and Webb are big losses for the lib dems.

I was fond of Norman Baker too. (And Lamb is OK.)

The rest, not so much.

I met Norman lamb, I was impressed. His heart was really in the right place during the coalition and he put in place some things relating to people with learning difficulties which have gone largely unnoticed and hopefully made some real differences to people lives.

He was like the anti-chuka...Much better in person and really sincere / knew his stuff.

I have only ever met one LibDem MP. I was seriously unimpressed.

Not that I have ever met more than a couple of other MPs of any party, but those others have had at least some sort of presence.

I went to Uni with a now retired-from-politics Liberal "Shadow Minister". Jesus he was mediocre in every sense. A decent enough bloke, and very well meaning, but.... a total anorak. Zero charisma, super geeky, not especially bright. I met him once at the Commons for a drink and he just seemed bored, and depressed, by how boring it all was, and he was already quite boring in himself.

I think you've just about summed me up

justin124 said:

ydoethur said:

justin124 said:

RobD said:

justin124 said:

RobD said:

justin124 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Been for dinner, has Justin kill'em all short Straws managed to go an hour without wishing death on anybody?

At least I have been impartial - can you claim that?

Are you impartial in wishing death and dismemberment on your friends as well as your enemies?

I have not wished death on anyone!

You said May deserved a polonium pill.

There may well be an antidote for that by now.No - it was all about suffering -which is supposed to be so good for the soul.May knows all about suffering , given how much of it she and the Government she represents has imposed on poor vulnerable people since 2010. She has effectively provided us with a Masterclass of the Nasty Party at play.

Justin:

We've had lots of good arguments on history over the last couple of years. Can I refer you to a statement by a Labour chancellor in days of yore:

'When you are in a hole - STOP DIGGING!'

I see no hole!

Anybody?

SeanT said:

AnneJGP said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

rcs1000 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Cable was bloody useless in the coalition. All their supposed wisdom and he got the square root of fuck all done. In comparison beaker the former park ranger was very harshly treated to lose their seat. Him and Webb are big losses for the lib dems.

I was fond of Norman Baker too. (And Lamb is OK.)

The rest, not so much.

I met Norman lamb, I was impressed. His heart was really in the right place during the coalition and he put in place some things relating to people with learning difficulties which have gone largely unnoticed and hopefully made some real differences to people lives.

He was like the anti-chuka...Much better in person and really sincere / knew his stuff.

I have only ever met one LibDem MP. I was seriously unimpressed.

Not that I have ever met more than a couple of other MPs of any party, but those others have had at least some sort of presence.

I went to Uni with a now retired-from-politics Liberal "Shadow Minister". Jesus he was mediocre in every sense. A decent enough bloke, and very well meaning, but.... a total anorak. Zero charisma, super geeky, not especially bright. I met him once at the Commons for a drink and he just seemed bored, and depressed, by how boring it all was, and he was already quite boring in himself.

That's him! (Can't be, really.)

YBarddCwsc said:

rcs1000 said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Insider said:

Libs may well do better than forecast. 55 seats in 2010 means they have form. Labour demise could mean they get 70 seats

That is a very commendable first effort, beating ChrisA’s 50 LD seats.

But, it dwarfs WilliamGlenn’s spectacle of 150 LD MPs.

My guess is that they’ll get ~10 MPs.

No gains at all?

Not Edinburgh West nor Fife NE nor Dumbartonshire East?

Not even in leafy SW London? Or the hearts of Remainia? And no benefit from Labour being down 5 percentage points or more, while the LDs have increased their vote share by 50%?

I reckon 12 seats in the minimum.

They have 8 seats plus Richmond. I expect they will lose Carshalton & Southport. And possibly Ceredigion where the MP has been mired in election expenses scandal.

I expect they will gain two seats in London (say Twickenham and Sutton). The University seats are mainly in the hands of fervent Remainer Labour MPs, except Bath. I think they will probably take Bath.

I think they will gain one, perhaps two of their old Scottish redoubts.

That makes 11., possibly 12.

Cambridge and the egregious Mr Huppert -- he’s got a tough fight on, in my opinion.

Would you like a bet on Ceredigion and Cambridge?

£50 from me to you if the LDs lose both, £50 from you to me if they win both. Nothing in the event of one win and one loss.

malcolmg said:

Alanbrooke said:

malcolmg said:

Alanbrooke said:

malcolmg said:

Alanbrooke said:

kle4 said:

Alanbrooke said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Straight away yesterday the media were hooked on this idea of voters not wanting a GE and voter fatigue. Now when have we seen the media being totally out of step with the rest of the country...innocent face..

the pundits are a lttle out of touch atm

they said there couldnt be an early election and Mrs May was indecisive - wrong on both accounts it seems

If they said there couldn't be one they were factually wrong, if they said there wouldn't be one they just called it wrong (if someone merely said she had no power to call one they were right and still are, she did not call one, parliament did, albeit at her urging).

But they definitely were not wrong on her being indecisive - if she is not indecisive and changed her mind in a month on seeking an early GE, then she lied about wanting to seek one before! So is she a liar, or is she indecisive?

And no, I don't expect her to face electoral consequences either way, but she was not decisive on this issue, she said repeatedly we were not having one, now we are.

ROFL

shes a politician

I find it little short of amazing that people on a politics site expect politicians to be archbishops.

Alan , di d you see my response to your scurilous post , is our bet on.

malc I didnt

but youre on

would you like to pay up now ? :-)

Like taking candy off a baby

Ive doubled up malc as JPJ2 was laughing as you hid in the heather so I took him on too :-)

so thats £20 Salmond loses his seat proceeds to the site

none of your dodgy scottish notes either :-)

real money !

At 2:1 exchange rate there is no way you are getting Scottish notes

OGH accepts turnips.

RobD said:

bobajobPB said:

RobD said:

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

Anorak said:

MikeSmithson said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Sean_F said:

I certainly think Justin124 merits a ban for his comments on the last thread.

Pure filth, the likes we haven't seem on here for a long long time.

It has been deleted

Assuming you're talking about amputations, Hitler, "lying bitches", and polonium, then the comments are all still there. If that's the moderate stuff that wasn't deleted, then, well, I'm not sure what to say...

Speaking as an egregiously offensive bastard, I'm all agog to know what Justin said that was SO bad, to shock so many?

I was out walking the Sussex bluebell woods all day - and very very beautiful they were. Perfect Spring weather. Lovely.

He said Theresa May should eat a polonium pill and he hoped she went blind and lost a few limbs as a result of her diabetes.

And he won't live it down quickly. PB has a long memory...

Indeed some PBers have such amazing powers of memory they can remember all my screen names!

You make it too easy. We also remember that you've been warned this is your last

The aim was never to make it difficult!

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sky just announced that US House of Representatives Speaker, Paul Ryan, said today, on a visit to London, that the US is ready to forge a new bi-lateral trade deal with the UK as soon as possible.

This is the same man pushing for a Border Adjustment Tax which - in effect - would then chuck a 20% tax on all imports.

Excluding UK bilateral deal

SeanT said:

AnneJGP said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

rcs1000 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Cable was bloody useless in the coalition. All their supposed wisdom and he got the square root of fuck all done. In comparison beaker the former park ranger was very harshly treated to lose their seat. Him and Webb are big losses for the lib dems.

I was fond of Norman Baker too. (And Lamb is OK.)

The rest, not so much.

I met Norman lamb, I was impressed. His heart was really in the right place during the coalition and he put in place some things relating to people with learning difficulties which have gone largely unnoticed and hopefully made some real differences to people lives.

He was like the anti-chuka...Much better in person and really sincere / knew his stuff.

I have only ever met one LibDem MP. I was seriously unimpressed.

Not that I have ever met more than a couple of other MPs of any party, but those others have had at least some sort of presence.

I went to Uni with a now retired-from-politics Liberal "Shadow Minister". Jesus he was mediocre in every sense. A decent enough bloke, and very well meaning, but.... a total anorak. Zero charisma, super geeky, not especially bright. I met him once at the Commons for a drink and he just seemed bored, and depressed, by how boring it all was, and he was already quite boring in himself.

At University I knew Gavin Barwell, Kwasi Kwarteng, Lucy Frazer and Tristram Hunt all well.

Kwasi is the only one with a genuinely first rate intelligence.

calum said:

CarlottaVance said:

malcolmg said:

CarlottaVance said:

Barely had the Prime Minister shut the door of Number 10 behind her than the SNP leader was beating a path to the nearest BBC camera.

She can’t get someone halfway competent to run Scotland’s schools but she knows where to find Brian Taylor and a microphone in a pinch.

Miss Sturgeon pronounced Theresa May guilty of a ‘huge political miscalculation’ for calling an early general election. This means one of two things: 1) Theresa May made a huge political miscalculation in calling an early election, or 2) Nicola Sturgeon does not want a general election at this moment in time.

https://stephendaisley.com/2017/04/19/sturgeon-knows-her-party-has-peaked-thats-why-she-doesnt-want-this-election/

Oh dear oh dear, you are down to scrabbling in the gutter already. Desperate times.

Oh dear oh dear. Both Malc and Nicola out of touch with the Scottish electorate who are in favour of the GE (net +17). Heck, even SNP voters are in favour - but by a much smaller margin- I wonder why? I they were awfully keen on votes?

I wonder if the SNP will mention IndyRef2 anywhere in their manifesto ?

Or bury it on page 27 in the small print and omit it entirely from the "easy read" one?

Do you think they'll mention their EU policy (what is it today?) or currency plans too?

SimonStClare said:

Insider said:

Libs can benefit from Lab demise and win back blue seats. If they got 55 in 2010, then they could get 70 this time. Might be worth a flutter

Seriously, you’re predicting the Lib Dems to gain 61 seats? – Oh and welcome btw.

The MikeK de nos jours....

Sean_F said:

Black_Rook said:

Sean_F said:

So does the "Progressive Alliance" have a chance?

No. Labour's factions are at war with each other (the Far Left particularly loathes the Blairites.) Association with Corbynite Labour is electorally toxic to the Liberal Democrats, whose main hope is to profit from Remainer sentiment against Tory incumbents in parts of the South. And the rotten smell of a "Progressive" Government propped up by Scottish Nationalism (something that most English voters distrust if not despise) hangs over all efforts to construct such a thing.

The progressive alliance is a comfort blanket for anti-Tories who don't want to put in the many years of hard work rebuilding trust, and painful compromises with the electorate over policy, needed to win a General Election. It assumes that having unpopular policies and a very unpopular leader is something that can easily be overcome, if only the various niche or weak parties arrayed against the Conservatives merely agreed a slate of unity candidates. That's bollocks.

A centre-left revival will come either when Labour regains credibility, or is gradually and methodically wiped out by an alternative Opposition that possesses it. There are no convenient shortcuts to this end.

Interesting pieces on Sluggerotoole about Sinn Fein trying to create an anti-Brexit alliance in Northern Ireland.

IMO, Alliance and SDLP would be crucified if they aligned themselves with Sinn Fein. Alliance support in pro-Union constituencies would collapse, and Unionist tactical voting for SDLP in South Down and Foyle to keep out Sinn Fein would vanish.

Chris Donnelly is a shinner who cant accept everyonr else hates them.

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

AnneJGP said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

rcs1000 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Cable was bloody useless in the coalition. All their supposed wisdom and he got the square root of fuck all done. In comparison beaker the former park ranger was very harshly treated to lose their seat. Him and Webb are big losses for the lib dems.

I was fond of Norman Baker too. (And Lamb is OK.)

The rest, not so much.

I met Norman lamb, I was impressed. His heart was really in the right place during the coalition and he put in place some things relating to people with learning difficulties which have gone largely unnoticed and hopefully made some real differences to people lives.

He was like the anti-chuka...Much better in person and really sincere / knew his stuff.

I have only ever met one LibDem MP. I was seriously unimpressed.

Not that I have ever met more than a couple of other MPs of any party, but those others have had at least some sort of presence.

I went to Uni with a now retired-from-politics Liberal "Shadow Minister". Jesus he was mediocre in every sense. A decent enough bloke, and very well meaning, but.... a total anorak. Zero charisma, super geeky, not especially bright. I met him once at the Commons for a drink and he just seemed bored, and depressed, by how boring it all was, and he was already quite boring in himself.

At University I knew Gavin Barwell, Kwasi Kwarteng, Lucy Frazer and Tristram Hunt all well.

Kwasi is the only one with a genuinely first rate intelligence.

(None of them were idiots, I'd add. Lucy was a bright, dedicated, hardworker and you'd be pleased to have her as your MP. Gavin was a sincere guy, who went into politics for all the right reasons. Tristram was... in Footlights very briefly. I would add that Kwasi is the only one of the four that I've stayed in touch with.)

rcs1000 said:

rcs1000 said:

SeanT said:

AnneJGP said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

rcs1000 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Cable was bloody useless in the coalition. All their supposed wisdom and he got the square root of fuck all done. In comparison beaker the former park ranger was very harshly treated to lose their seat. Him and Webb are big losses for the lib dems.

I was fond of Norman Baker too. (And Lamb is OK.)

The rest, not so much.

I met Norman lamb, I was impressed. His heart was really in the right place during the coalition and he put in place some things relating to people with learning difficulties which have gone largely unnoticed and hopefully made some real differences to people lives.

He was like the anti-chuka...Much better in person and really sincere / knew his stuff.

I have only ever met one LibDem MP. I was seriously unimpressed.

Not that I have ever met more than a couple of other MPs of any party, but those others have had at least some sort of presence.

I went to Uni with a now retired-from-politics Liberal "Shadow Minister". Jesus he was mediocre in every sense. A decent enough bloke, and very well meaning, but.... a total anorak. Zero charisma, super geeky, not especially bright. I met him once at the Commons for a drink and he just seemed bored, and depressed, by how boring it all was, and he was already quite boring in himself.

At University I knew Gavin Barwell, Kwasi Kwarteng, Lucy Frazer and Tristram Hunt all well.

Kwasi is the only one with a genuinely first rate intelligence.

(None of them were idiots, I'd add. Lucy was a bright, dedicated, hardworker and you'd be pleased to have her as your MP. Gavin was a sincere guy, who went into politics for all the right reasons. Tristram was... in Footlights very briefly. I would add that Kwasi is the only one of the four that I've stayed in touch with.)

'in Footlights very briefly' - love it.


Kwasi always comes across very well on radio/tv too - why oh why has he not been promoted yet?

Mortimer said:

The usual suspects on my fb feed are getting themselves all excited about a progressive alliance......

Apparently without realising that Con + UKIP has secured 49% or 50+% of the vote in every opinion poll this year

The Progressive Minority?

Mortimer said:

The usual suspects on my fb feed are getting themselves all excited about a progressive alliance......

Apparently without realising that Con + UKIP has secured 49% or 50+% of the vote in every opinion poll this year

A progressive alliance just needs to work in 51% of seats, not 51% of the whole country.

(not that I think it will!)

I don’t if this has been commented on upthread, but I’ve been doing a lot more interesting (ahem) things this afternoon. Chiefly a meeting of the Wine Appreciation Group to which I belong where our leader produced, among some quite quite drinkable budget sparkling wines, one of the nastiest I’ve ever tasted; a sparkling red Shiraz. Reminded me of raspberrryade.

Anyone returning to the fold, after the meeting I was discussing matters with a friend, another Remainer, and we bothn agreed that we didn’t feel the country was ‘coming together’. We felt surrounded by triumphalist Leavers.
I’ve been a ‘left' voter all my life and I’ve never experienced the same feeling.

And I’ve been voting a long time. I remember Feb. 1974 when we had a “Who Governs” election and the response of the electorate was “whoever does, it’s not you’ to Heath, who’d called the election.

History repeats itself first as farce, then as tragedy; I suspect therefore that we can expect a farcical result.

Insider said:

rcs1000 said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Insider said:

Libs may well do better than forecast. 55 seats in 2010 means they have form. Labour demise could mean they get 70 seats

That is a very commendable first effort, beating ChrisA’s 50 LD seats.

But, it dwarfs WilliamGlenn’s spectacle of 150 LD MPs.

My guess is that they’ll get ~10 MPs.

No gains at all?

Not Edinburgh West nor Fife NE nor Dumbartonshire East?

Not even in leafy SW London? Or the hearts of Remainia? And no benefit from Labour being down 5 percentage points or more, while the LDs have increased their vote share by 50%?

I reckon 12 seats in the minimum.

I can't see how they won't gain seats. they got 9 when they got no votes. Local by-elections show they have a chance. more than 20 nailed on.

Would you like to say exactly which 20+ seats are nailed-on LibDem gains ?

another_richard said:

Insider said:

rcs1000 said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Insider said:

Libs may well do better than forecast. 55 seats in 2010 means they have form. Labour demise could mean they get 70 seats

That is a very commendable first effort, beating ChrisA’s 50 LD seats.

But, it dwarfs WilliamGlenn’s spectacle of 150 LD MPs.

My guess is that they’ll get ~10 MPs.

No gains at all?

Not Edinburgh West nor Fife NE nor Dumbartonshire East?

Not even in leafy SW London? Or the hearts of Remainia? And no benefit from Labour being down 5 percentage points or more, while the LDs have increased their vote share by 50%?

I reckon 12 seats in the minimum.

I can't see how they won't gain seats. they got 9 when they got no votes. Local by-elections show they have a chance. more than 20 nailed on.

Would you like to say exactly which 20+ seats are nailed-on LibDem gains ?

Could they lose Southport

MarqueeMark said:

rcs1000 said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Insider said:

Libs may well do better than forecast. 55 seats in 2010 means they have form. Labour demise could mean they get 70 seats

That is a very commendable first effort, beating ChrisA’s 50 LD seats.

But, it dwarfs WilliamGlenn’s spectacle of 150 LD MPs.

My guess is that they’ll get ~10 MPs.

No gains at all?

Not Edinburgh West nor Fife NE nor Dumbartonshire East?

Not even in leafy SW London? Or the hearts of Remainia? And no benefit from Labour being down 5 percentage points or more, while the LDs have increased their vote share by 50%?

I reckon 12 seats in the minimum.

10 seats is one gain.

Net. Maybe they lose a couple, gain 3.

I don't think they'll lose Carshalton & Wallington because there's a big Labour (and a smaller Green) vote to squeeze.

Southport will be tougher, as it was a Leave voting area, and as the Conservatives can hope to eat into the sizeable UKIP vote, but I'd still make them narrow favourites to hold on.

Other than those two, which seats do you see as vulnerable?

Big_G_NorthWales said:

This Progressive Alliance suggested by Nicola is clever politics as she wants a big conservative win and knows that Lynton Crosby will already have Corbyn and Farron as puppets on Nicola's string.

Looks like the campaign with less than a few hours old is following the last one with Miliband in Salmonds pocket. Corbyn has already had to deny a Progressive Alliance with the SNP and Theresa May has used puppets in her presentation in Bolton.

Used puppets?

'Show me where the nasty, Hamas supporting, RA loving socialist touched you'

I was very impressed with a Tory mp once...Not for his political ability, oh god no, his ability to pick up women way out of his league!!!

Gina Miller should stand. She is erudite, intelligent, telegenic and (it has to be said) beautiful. What better poster girl for Remain could there be? Let her stand against May as convenor of a one-off Anti Brexit Alliance. The Tories would still win. But at least it might make a temporary tussle of it.

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The 2015 playbook has been updated

https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/854741399694135296

English hatin', Jew Baitin', Republican Homophobes

So predictable and powerful at this early stage

murali_s said:

Early canvassing (from a few Labour pals) here in Wimbledon suggests the LDs are looking strong here. Outside chance of winning maybe with Labour likely to be pushed from second to third.

Two years ago you predicted Labour had an outside chance of gaining Wimbledon.

Instead they increased their majority to 26%:

CarlottaVance said:

Chuka Umunna‏ @ChukaUmunna
Theresa May is a disgrace-she called an Election because she rejects the idea of an Opposition in our democracy.We are not some dictatorship

Er, Chuka luv, dictators don't usually call elections.....

I have never understood why some people rate him.

AndyJS said:

Amazing to hear people talking about coups and dictatorships when an election has just been called.

Did you not see her speech? It was something like this...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hS57I6swXcc

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Sky just announced that US House of Representatives Speaker, Paul Ryan, said today, on a visit to London, that the US is ready to forge a new bi-lateral trade deal with the UK as soon as possible.

This is the same man pushing for a Border Adjustment Tax which - in effect - would then chuck a 20% tax on all imports.

Excluding UK bilateral deal

In which case, the US will be leaving the World Trade Organisation. The only reason why the BTA was acceptable previously was because it was non-discriminatory.

Do you think that Trump may just disregard the WTO

It will be a sad day for the world if the WTO is effectively dismantled. It's the only global organisation that can genuinely hold its hand up and say it has contributed to prosperity and development around the world.

I agree but who knows when it comes to Trump

glw said:

CarlottaVance said:

Chuka Umunna‏ @ChukaUmunna
Theresa May is a disgrace-she called an Election because she rejects the idea of an Opposition in our democracy.We are not some dictatorship

Er, Chuka luv, dictators don't usually call elections.....

I have never understood why some people rate him.

He was even more unimpressive in person.

Re Southport: Hanretty believes it was 45% Leave, 55% Remain, so that probably helps whoever the new LibDem candidate is.

Ishmael et al

Why do/did people hate the FTPA so much? As much as it annoyed me during the Coalition years, it strikes me as a generally good principle that PMs cannot cut and run at the time of their own choosing.

another_richard said:

rcs1000 said:

MarqueeMark said:

rcs1000 said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Insider said:

Libs may well do better than forecast. 55 seats in 2010 means they have form. Labour demise could mean they get 70 seats

That is a very commendable first effort, beating ChrisA’s 50 LD seats.

But, it dwarfs WilliamGlenn’s spectacle of 150 LD MPs.

My guess is that they’ll get ~10 MPs.

No gains at all?

Not Edinburgh West nor Fife NE nor Dumbartonshire East?

Not even in leafy SW London? Or the hearts of Remainia? And no benefit from Labour being down 5 percentage points or more, while the LDs have increased their vote share by 50%?

I reckon 12 seats in the minimum.

10 seats is one gain.

Net. Maybe they lose a couple, gain 3.

I don't think they'll lose Carshalton & Wallington because there's a big Labour (and a smaller Green) vote to squeeze.

Southport will be tougher, as it was a Leave voting area, and as the Conservatives can hope to eat into the sizeable UKIP vote, but I'd still make them narrow favourites to hold on.

Other than those two, which seats do you see as vulnerable?

The Labour vote in Carshalton is very working-class - it will less profitable for the LibDems than the Labour vote in the Richmond and Kingston boroughs.

Southport might give an indication on LibDem personal votes.

Southport was Liberal for a long time, even before Pugh. Alongside O&S and Montgomery, it's probably the most Liberal return constituency outside the SW.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

This Progressive Alliance suggested by Nicola is clever politics as she wants a big conservative win and knows that Lynton Crosby will already have Corbyn and Farron as puppets on Nicola's string.

Looks like the campaign with less than a few hours old is following the last one with Miliband in Salmonds pocket. Corbyn has already had to deny a Progressive Alliance with the SNP and Theresa May has used puppets in her presentation in Bolton.

Oh absolutely, this is an obvious angle for the SNP to pursue. They know they're unpopular outside their own borders, and therefore any talk of such a pact acts as contagion against the Tories' opponents elsewhere. And the stronger the Tories get, the better their "stuck with an endless string of right-wing Governments we didn't vote for" argument plays at home. Which, in turn, is helpful to the SNP's independence drive, which is ultimately all they care about.

The Conservatives South of the Border, for their part, can use the SNP as a stick with which to beat their opponents at every single General Election until one of the following occurs:

1. Enough Scots get fed up of the SNP for the Scottish opposition to stage a big revival. The principal beneficiaries of such a thing look set to be the Conservatives, which would make their position in Parliament more secure.
2. Scotland becomes independent. That particular reservoir of leftist opposition MPs in the House of Commons is then permanently removed, which would make the Tories' position in Parliament much more secure.
3. An Opposition emerges in England which is strong enough either to win an outright majority without Scottish votes and/or to challenge for a position of real strength in Scotland, or - if obliged to turn to the SNP for support - capable of being trusted not to fall victim to puppetry. This looks to be a very long way off.

Overall, the Scottish situation works very strongly in favour of Conservative HQ in London. If Scotland does go then whichever poor sod is Prime Minister at the time will probably be required to fall on his or her sword, but other than that it's a real advantage.

bobajobPB said:

Gina Miller should stand. She is erudite, intelligent, telegenic and (it has to be said) beautiful. What better poster girl for Remain could there be? Let her stand against May as convenor of a one-off Anti Brexit Alliance. The Tories would still win. But at least it might make a temporary tussle of it.

you mean shes a hot bitch as you progressives would phrase it ?

foxinsoxuk said:

isam said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

The 2015 playbook has been updated

https://twitter.com/Conservatives/status/854741399694135296

English hatin', Jew Baitin', Republican Homophobes

This is what Farron said today on the subject of whether being gay was a sin:

Mr Farron replied: "I do not. And I tell you what, I am very proud to have gone through the lobby behind him in the coalition government where the Liberal Democrats introduced gay marriage, equal marriage, and indeed did not go as far as it should have done in terms of recognising transgender rights.

"However, there is much more to be done, and if we campaign in this election, as we will, for an open, tolerant, united society, then we need to make sure that we do not in any way be complacent about LGBT rights, not just here, but in other parts of the world."

Bloody LDs, crap at homophobia. You need kippers for that, or at least the turnip taliban.

Ooh touchy!

Theresa May agrees to BBC Question Time-style question and answer televised election debate but not head-to-head with rival leaders

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/04/19/bbc-itv-collision-course-theresa-may-say-will-hold-televised/

rcs1000 said:

MarkSenior said:

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

another_richard said:

Insider said:

rcs1000 said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Insider said:

Libs may well do better than forecast. 55 seats in 2010 means they have form. Labour demise could mean they get 70 seats

That is a very commendable first effort, beating ChrisA’s 50 LD seats.

But, it dwarfs WilliamGlenn’s spectacle of 150 LD MPs.

My guess is that they’ll get ~10 MPs.

No gains at all?

Not Edinburgh West nor Fife NE nor Dumbartonshire East?

Not even in leafy SW London? Or the hearts of Remainia? And no benefit from Labour being down 5 percentage points or more, while the LDs have increased their vote share by 50%?

I reckon 12 seats in the minimum.

I can't see how they won't gain seats. they got 9 when they got no votes. Local by-elections show they have a chance. more than 20 nailed on.

Would you like to say exactly which 20+ seats are nailed-on LibDem gains ?

Could they lose Southport

Yes. It's a (marginally) Leave voting area, which they won on barely more than 30% of the vote last time.

But there's a student vote to eat into, and the Labour Party is likely to go backwards to their benefit.

I'd make it 55% chance for the LDs, 45% for the Conservatives.

Nope , astonishingly the Conservatives came 3rd behind Labour in the 2016 locals , the Lib Dems won every seat and led the Conservatives by 5,500 votes

Which wards make up the constituency and what were the vote shares? That certainly indicates that the LDs have decent local organisation (which together with the Hanretty Remain/Leave estimates) should certainly make them favourites in the seat.

Ainsdale , Birkdale , Cambridge , Dukes , Kew , Meols and Norwood . It is first time ever LDems have won all 7

Vote share approx

LD 39%
Lab 21%
Con 20%
UKIP 12%
Green 8%

bobajobPB said:

Ishmael et al

Why do/did people hate the FTPA so much? As much as it annoyed me during the Coalition years, it strikes me as a generally good principle that PMs cannot cut and run at the time of their own choosing.

But as May has just shown, it doesn't prevent that at all.

https://twitter.com/graeme_from_it/status/854768673155932161

MarkSenior said:

rcs1000 said:

MarkSenior said:

rcs1000 said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

another_richard said:

Insider said:

rcs1000 said:

YBarddCwsc said:

Insider said:

Libs may well do better than forecast. 55 seats in 2010 means they have form. Labour demise could mean they get 70 seats

That is a very commendable first effort, beating ChrisA’s 50 LD seats.

But, it dwarfs WilliamGlenn’s spectacle of 150 LD MPs.

My guess is that they’ll get ~10 MPs.

No gains at all?

Not Edinburgh West nor Fife NE nor Dumbartonshire East?

Not even in leafy SW London? Or the hearts of Remainia? And no benefit from Labour being down 5 percentage points or more, while the LDs have increased their vote share by 50%?

I reckon 12 seats in the minimum.

I can't see how they won't gain seats. they got 9 when they got no votes. Local by-elections show they have a chance. more than 20 nailed on.

Would you like to say exactly which 20+ seats are nailed-on LibDem gains ?

Could they lose Southport

Yes. It's a (marginally) Leave voting area, which they won on barely more than 30% of the vote last time.

But there's a student vote to eat into, and the Labour Party is likely to go backwards to their benefit.

I'd make it 55% chance for the LDs, 45% for the Conservatives.

Nope , astonishingly the Conservatives came 3rd behind Labour in the 2016 locals , the Lib Dems won every seat and led the Conservatives by 5,500 votes

Which wards make up the constituency and what were the vote shares? That certainly indicates that the LDs have decent local organisation (which together with the Hanretty Remain/Leave estimates) should certainly make them favourites in the seat.

Ainsdale , Birkdale , Cambridge , Dukes , Kew , Meols and Norwood . It is first time ever LDems have won all 7

Vote share approx

LD 39%
Lab 21%
Con 20%
UKIP 12%
Green 8%

Are Montgomery or Brecon and Radnor vulnerable to being retaken? Both would have voted Leave. (This area is historically as much Liberal as Tory, although it's small c conservative).

Oxford West and Abingdon boundaries may have been messed around with, I was told, making it a safer Tory seat. But could it still be vulnerable? It voted Remain.

justin124 said:

numbertwelve said:

bobajobPB said:

Ishmael et al

Why do/did people hate the FTPA so much? As much as it annoyed me during the Coalition years, it strikes me as a generally good principle that PMs cannot cut and run at the time of their own choosing.

But as May has just shown, it doesn't prevent that at all.

But that is because Corbyn was too thick to seek to outmanouvre her!

I don't know. You can argue Corbyn missed a trick with the semantics (he should have pushed for a vote of no confidence) but I struggle to see situations where a LOTO could legitimately argue against going to the country given the opposition's whole role is, you know, to seek to form a government (I suppose there would be some limited circumstances, e.g. a government seeking an election six months to a year before one was scheduled or very early into a new term, but that's about it).

YBarddCwsc said:

Is there any obligation on Corbyn to resign if he does lose 100 or 150 seats?

Seriously, we are used to red-eyed losers resigning on election night. But, Labour’s problems got far worse when a tearful EdM resigned after the election in 2015.

I could imagine Jeremy may stay on to stabilise the ship.

*stay on to complete takeover of the NEC.