Controversial Labour MP Gisela Stuart has told her CLP that she will not contest the next election. In 1997, her victory in Birmingham Edgbaston was the first big Labour gain of the night from the Tories and she was a symbol of the new wave of Labour MPs. Latterly however, as a prominent advocate of leaving the EU, she alienated many PLP colleagues and local former supporters.
What a grim week for us, Mark Reckless rejoins the party and George Osborne ceases to be an MP.
I must have missed it, when did Mark Reckless rejoin the Tory party?
All but in name.
He should have been told to fuck off by the Welsh Conservatives, like the way you avoid an ex girlfriend with the clap, but they didn't.
what do we think re Carswell, the Tory candidate was Giles Watling and he's still up for beating Douglas this time around and seems to want the nomination again?
Give it to Watling - worse case they lose to Carswell the Indy, best case they get it back. If Carswell wants back in, he can, just not Clacton and not right away, that's his price for defection.
What a grim week for us, Mark Reckless rejoins the party and George Osborne ceases to be an MP.
They've let Reckless back in? Wow. Big mistake IMO.
Also, sympathies about Osborne. I only hope planning of the Northern Powerhouse continues apace.
They haven't. He's sitting as an independent.
Oh, good. But any true Conservative should turn their backs whenever he approaches. He should get the full Geographers' Guild treatment from the film Paddington.
(Sadly, I can't fnd the relevant clip).
Mark Reckless,
I hereby revoke your membership of this hallowed party.
Controversial Labour MP Gisela Stuart has told her CLP that she will not contest the next election. In 1997, her victory in Birmingham Edgbaston was the first big Labour gain of the night from the Tories and she was a symbol of the new wave of Labour MPs. Latterly however, as a prominent advocate of leaving the EU, she alienated many PLP colleagues and local former supporters.
Hopefully she'll get a seat on the Lords and remain in public life.
Yep. One of the best Labour MPs. Principled and effective. Sorry to see her go.
But overall with the news of Osborne going this has been a very good day. If we could persuade Anna Soubry to go as well it would be great.
She's ok with us wets!
What about The Dry but not obsessed with Europe and the Gays new Tory Party... or was it The New Fiscally Dry, Socially Liberal, not obsessed by the gays and Europe Conservative Party?
What a grim week for us, Mark Reckless rejoins the party and George Osborne ceases to be an MP.
I must have missed it, when did Mark Reckless rejoin the Tory party?
All but in name.
He should have been told to fuck off by the Welsh Conservatives, like the way you avoid an ex girlfriend with the clap, but they didn't.
what do we think re Carswell, the Tory candidate was Giles Watling and he's still up for beating Douglas this time around and seems to want the nomination again?
I loved Bread. It has to be the Proddy Vicar that is the Tory candidate.
Are you allowed to double job between Holyrood and Westminster, or would they decide the SCON brand is doing about as well as it can and is relatively set at its current level, so no harm getting some of the talent to Westminster?
Labour procedures for selection (from the Guardian)
Vacancies where MPs are standing down, or where no candidate is in place, will be advertised on Labour’s website from Friday and applications will close on Sunday at noon.
Candidates will be chosen by panels of NEC and regional board members. (This will give the Labour hierarchy the opportunity to select favoured individuals, although the number of vacancies coming up in seats the party is certain to win may be small.)
All women shortlists will be imposed “in the normal way” and, as a minimum, they will apply where female MPs are standing down.
Candidates who stood for the party in 2015 in seats they did not win will be asked if they want to stand again. But they will have to be approved by the panels involving NEC and regional board members.
The Scottish and Welsh parties will run their own selections.
Go on Nick. Stand against Soubry. It would be a double celebration. Her gone and you back in Parliament.
What a grim week for us, Mark Reckless rejoins the party and George Osborne ceases to be an MP.
They've let Reckless back in? Wow. Big mistake IMO.
Also, sympathies about Osborne. I only hope planning of the Northern Powerhouse continues apace.
They haven't. He's sitting as an independent.
Oh, good. But any true Conservative should turn their backs whenever he approaches. He should get the full Geographers' Guild treatment from the film Paddington.
(Sadly, I can't fnd the relevant clip).
Mark Reckless,
I hereby revoke your membership of this hallowed party.
Members, turn your backs!
Na, you are talking about when someone gets expelled from the Klingon High Council!
Are you allowed to double job between Holyrood and Westminster, or would they decide the SCON brand is doing about as well as it can and is relatively set at its current level, so no harm getting some of the talent to Westminster?
I don't think you can anymore. I really hope she continues the fight up in Scotland!
What a grim week for us, Mark Reckless rejoins the party and George Osborne ceases to be an MP.
I must have missed it, when did Mark Reckless rejoin the Tory party?
All but in name.
He should have been told to fuck off by the Welsh Conservatives, like the way you avoid an ex girlfriend with the clap, but they didn't.
what do we think re Carswell, the Tory candidate was Giles Watling and he's still up for beating Douglas this time around and seems to want the nomination again?
I loved Bread. It has to be the Proddy Vicar that is the Tory candidate.
Lilo Lil, she is a tart.
Indeed - that's him! Seems a thoroughly good egg too. although I'm not sure which 'wing' of the Blue team he's on... the newly returned Reckless/Tyndall side or the various names RobD recalls for me or wets for short.
Straight away yesterday the media were hooked on this idea of voters not wanting a GE and voter fatigue. Now when have we seen the media being totally out of step with the rest of the country...innocent face..
the pundits are a lttle out of touch atm
they said there couldnt be an early election and Mrs May was indecisive - wrong on both accounts it seems
If they said there couldn't be one they were factually wrong, if they said there wouldn't be one they just called it wrong (if someone merely said she had no power to call one they were right and still are, she did not call one, parliament did, albeit at her urging).
But they definitely were not wrong on her being indecisive - if she is not indecisive and changed her mind in a month on seeking an early GE, then she lied about wanting to seek one before! So is she a liar, or is she indecisive?
And no, I don't expect her to face electoral consequences either way, but she was not decisive on this issue, she said repeatedly we were not having one, now we are.
ROFL
shes a politician
I find it little short of amazing that people on a politics site expect politicians to be archbishops.
Alan , di d you see my response to your scurilous post , is our bet on.
It's an interesting general election for me from a purely personal point of view.
It will be the 6th general election that I'll have had a vote in and, having voted Conservative at each one of those from 1997 through to 2015, this will be the first one at which the Conservatives don't get my vote.
It will also be the first general election at which I'm a member of any political party, having joined the Liberal Democrats a mere three weeks ago.
Of course, with only a few Scottish seats even viable as potential Tory targets, that Ruth Davidson might stand in one hardly means much on its own, certainly too soon for her to start asking for Cabinet posts!
It's an interesting general election for me from a purely personal point of view.
It will be the 6th general election that I'll have had a vote in and, having voted Conservative at each one of those from 1997 through to 2015, this will be the first one at which the Conservatives don't get my vote.
It will also be the first general election at which I'm a member of any political party, having joined the Liberal Democrats a mere three weeks ago.
They could be up to 100,000 members soon, exciting.
I have always voted Conservative in past General Elections.
I voted remain in 2016, so in this GE I think I will vote Lib Dem. Hopefully the Lib Dems will commit to revoking article 50 and continuing EU membership on the terms pre A50. I know of other Tory voters living in the same Constituency that are going to vote LD this time because of Brexit. It will probably mean the potential Tory gain of a Labour seat will not happen here if enough people do likewise. I don't think the Tories will convert lifelong Labour voters to support them whether they were for Brexit or not.
Why vote for something that is impossible? I can see committed Europhiles voting for the Lib Dems on the basis they will hold a second referendum at some point after we have left but the idea that we can just pretend the last year has not happened and go back into the EU on the same terms we had before is simply not realistic.
Been a member for 20 years, but I feel the party has left me.
Oh dear. How sad. Never mind.
You could support the party lead by Hague, IDS, Howard but not May.
WIth IDS I was definitely inside the tent peeing in.
Hague tried his best under the most trying of circumstances, the worst thing that ever happened to him was to win the the Tory leadership in 1997.
Howard was a stop gap to help topple the Tory Corbyn.
Imagine if Blair had quit at the 2003 party conference, Brown had replaced him and done something uncharacteristically bold like calling a snap election.
I wonder if Prime Minister Balls would now be trying to stave off the galvanised Liberal Democrats of Leader of the Opposition Nick Clegg while a Dominic Grieve-led Tory party of 30 MPs sulked from the sidelines?
And will that be the fate of Labour ten years from now, as Diane Abbott tries to land yet another mighty blow on Ed Davey and Ruth Davidson?
Hopefully she will get same as last time, a lying toerag
Ummm: I can think of a number of LibDem MPs to which that sobriquet would be appropriate. But Jo Swinson: about what has she lied? And why is she a toerag?
The 0.7% of GDP for overseas aid is something we can and should be very proud of.
There will always be issues about how these things are administered and who gets the money but that is a question of reviewing and revising our criteria for overseas aid, not getting rid of or reducing it. I hope that leaving the EU might help this as significant amounts of overseas aid was channelled through them and the convoluted way in which it was administered made the whole thing rather opaque.
But the basic principle that rich countries should help poor ones for the long term benefit of everyone seems very sensible and admirable to me.
I would add that I have never understood the antipathy amongst some Tory politicians towards overseas aid. It seems a very old fashioned Conservative thing to do to help those les fortunate than oneself.
I know we have crossed swords on here but this is a superb post. Bravo!
What a grim week for us, Mark Reckless rejoins the party and George Osborne ceases to be an MP.
I must have missed it, when did Mark Reckless rejoin the Tory party?
All but in name.
He should have been told to fuck off by the Welsh Conservatives, like the way you avoid an ex girlfriend with the clap, but they didn't.
what do we think re Carswell, the Tory candidate was Giles Watling and he's still up for beating Douglas this time around and seems to want the nomination again?
I loved Bread. It has to be the Proddy Vicar that is the Tory candidate.
Lilo Lil, she is a tart.
Indeed - that's him! Seems a thoroughly good egg too. although I'm not sure which 'wing' of the Blue team he's on... the newly returned Reckless/Tyndall side or the various names RobD recalls for me or wets for short.
Excuse me? Not only have I not returned to the Tory party, but I vote based on principles not personal gain. I certainly don't associate myself with Reckless. I am a Carswell man all the way.
What a grim week for us, Mark Reckless rejoins the party and George Osborne ceases to be an MP.
You need counselling. its not grim at all. Onwards.
To be fair, the prospect of TPD rejoining team Blue is a traumatic one.
He's not rejoined yet AFAIK. To allow him to would be a big mistake. It would allow others to be treacherous and know they could come back.
Reckless's defection always felt spiteful - timed as it was to coincide with the Conservative conference - as if he were a man who wasn't getting the advancement he felt he deserved.
(Oh yes, and his CV, where he claimed to be the top rated City economist at the age of 23, also indicated a man comfortable with something between exaggeration and outright lying.)
It's time for a change! (Plus if you start relatively low you've got more chance of rising - they're already near their ceiling - unless you think 50% is attainable)
I was primarily interested in the long-term trend of Labour underperforming the pre-campaign polls that was highlighted in the tweet. The Tories can, of course, extend their overall lead without gain any more voters if Opposition support fragments further.
Based on my reading of the polling data, I reckon that the current situation is as follows:
1. The Conservatives are holding nearly all of the support that they won under David Cameron in 2015. They were on about 38% of the vote, and are probably carrying a 37% share over from that election, with only a small number of distraught Continuity Remainers deserting to the Liberal Democrats. Tory defections to Labour or Ukip are negligible. 2. The Tories have won over about a third of the 2015 Ukip vote (I expect the remaining two-thirds to stick with the party, which would give Ukip a base of about 8%, similar to whhat the Lib Dems achieved when they were worn down to bedrock two years ago.) That gets May to 41%. 3. On top of that, the remaining tranche of floating voters who were willing to stick with Ed Miliband despite the Lab/Nat pact scare stories and questions over his economic competence will now have deserted Labour under Corbyn. That should be worth around another 2-3% of the popular vote, getting the Tories close to 45% and Labour down towards Michael Foot territory. 4. Most of the Lib Dems' ~3% uplift in the polls is down to Labourites defecting to them much faster than the Lib Dem left peels away to Labour and the Greens. Hence the point at which I reckon we now find ourselves, relative to the 2015 GE: Con +7%, Ukip -4%, LD +3%, Lab -6%.
Of course, this needn't be reflected exactly in terms of the movement of seats: the Lib Dems are very good local campaigners and should be able to exploit both this and pockets of heavy Remain support to outperform a little, although if they can get anything over 20 seats in total they'll be doing very well IMHO. Ukip are more likely than not to end up with nothing at all. Labour may suffer more than the vote share numbers suggest because, if this election is anything like the last one, the Conservatives will over-deliver in key marginals.
What a grim week for us, Mark Reckless rejoins the party and George Osborne ceases to be an MP.
You need counselling. its not grim at all. Onwards.
To be fair, the prospect of TPD rejoining team Blue is a traumatic one.
especially if he stands for Tatton for the blues....
Tatton doesn't deserve that.
Having had Hamilton, Bell and Osborne as previous incumbents they deserve an MP who actually cares about the constituency rather than seeing it as a means to pursue some Westminster project or other, whether for personal gain or not. .
I have always voted Conservative in past General Elections.
I voted remain in 2016, so in this GE I think I will vote Lib Dem. Hopefully the Lib Dems will commit to revoking article 50 and continuing EU membership on the terms pre A50. I know of other Tory voters living in the same Constituency that are going to vote LD this time because of Brexit. It will probably mean the potential Tory gain of a Labour seat will not happen here if enough people do likewise. I don't think the Tories will convert lifelong Labour voters to support them whether they were for Brexit or not.
Why vote for something that is impossible? I can see committed Europhiles voting for the Lib Dems on the basis they will hold a second referendum at some point after we have left but the idea that we can just pretend the last year has not happened and go back into the EU on the same terms we had before is simply not realistic.
If the LibDems were to be the majority party at the next General Election, I think they would be within their rights to call a referendum on the revocation of Article 50.
Fortunately, I don't think that's a very likely scenario.
I have always voted Conservative in past General Elections.
I voted remain in 2016, so in this GE I think I will vote Lib Dem. Hopefully the Lib Dems will commit to revoking article 50 and continuing EU membership on the terms pre A50. I know of other Tory voters living in the same Constituency that are going to vote LD this time because of Brexit. It will probably mean the potential Tory gain of a Labour seat will not happen here if enough people do likewise. I don't think the Tories will convert lifelong Labour voters to support them whether they were for Brexit or not.
Why vote for something that is impossible? I can see committed Europhiles voting for the Lib Dems on the basis they will hold a second referendum at some point after we have left but the idea that we can just pretend the last year has not happened and go back into the EU on the same terms we had before is simply not realistic.
If the LibDems were to be the majority party at the next General Election, I think they would be within their rights to call a referendum on the revocation of Article 50.
Fortunately, I don't think that's a very likely scenario.
I was referring to the idea that things would continue as before as far as the EU was concerned. I am pretty sure that there are a lot of people in Brussels and the capitals of Europe who would quite rightly challenge that idea.
Canvassed for Labour this afternoon. A few doubts expressed about Corbyn, but no sign of collapse. LDs will benefit from doubters. But in the main it is business as usual.
Are you allowed to double job between Holyrood and Westminster, or would they decide the SCON brand is doing about as well as it can and is relatively set at its current level, so no harm getting some of the talent to Westminster?
Are you allowed to double job between Holyrood and Westminster, or would they decide the SCON brand is doing about as well as it can and is relatively set at its current level, so no harm getting some of the talent to Westminster?
Talent , FFS are you insane
I was conjecturing as to their rationale behind such a move, should it occur.
Canvassed for Labour this afternoon. A few doubts expressed about Corbyn, but no sign of collapse. LDs will benefit from doubters. But in the main it is business as usual.
Of course, with only a few Scottish seats even viable as potential Tory targets, that Ruth Davidson might stand in one hardly means much on its own, certainly too soon for her to start asking for Cabinet posts!
It's an interesting general election for me from a purely personal point of view.
It will be the 6th general election that I'll have had a vote in and, having voted Conservative at each one of those from 1997 through to 2015, this will be the first one at which the Conservatives don't get my vote.
It will also be the first general election at which I'm a member of any political party, having joined the Liberal Democrats a mere three weeks ago.
They could be up to 100,000 members soon, exciting.
She will not have the bottle to stand for a Scottish seat, only if offered a southern shoe-in will she take a chance
The 0.7% of GDP for overseas aid is something we can and should be very proud of.
There will always be issues about how these things are administered and who gets the money but that is a question of reviewing and revising our criteria for overseas aid, not getting rid of or reducing it. I hope that leaving the EU might help this as significant amounts of overseas aid was channelled through them and the convoluted way in which it was administered made the whole thing rather opaque.
But the basic principle that rich countries should help poor ones for the long term benefit of everyone seems very sensible and admirable to me.
I would add that I have never understood the antipathy amongst some Tory politicians towards overseas aid. It seems a very old fashioned Conservative thing to do to help those les fortunate than oneself.
I know we have crossed swords on here but this is a superb post. Bravo!
Overseas aid is a painless mechanism for transferring money from poor people in rich countries to rich people in poor countries. The well-heeled like to defend it because they feel virtuous at no personal cost: it is their money going to good causes, innit, even if it goes via the taxman? The poor, who actually could do with the money themselves, not so much.
Media coverage of the LibDems will surely be more limited this time as a result of their very weak performance at the 2015 election and their continued low standing in the polls.The coverage given to them by Broadcasters in 2015 was determined by their 2010 performance.
I certainly think Justin124 merits a ban for his comments on the last thread.
Pure filth, the likes we haven't seem on here for a long long time.
It has been deleted
Assuming you're talking about amputations, Hitler, "lying bitches", and polonium, then the comments are all still there. If that's the moderate stuff that wasn't deleted, then, well, I'm not sure what to say...
Hopefully she will get same as last time, a lying toerag
Ummm: I can think of a number of LibDem MPs to which that sobriquet would be appropriate. But Jo Swinson: about what has she lied? And why is she a toerag?
Robert she was rubbish, I can only speak personally , she grated on me and is only just above Carmichael. Did nothing for Scotland ever.
What a grim week for us, Mark Reckless rejoins the party and George Osborne ceases to be an MP.
They've let Reckless back in? Wow. Big mistake IMO.
Also, sympathies about Osborne. I only hope planning of the Northern Powerhouse continues apace.
They haven't. He's sitting as an independent.
Oh, good. But any true Conservative should turn their backs whenever he approaches. He should get the full Geographers' Guild treatment from the film Paddington.
(Sadly, I can't fnd the relevant clip).
Mark Reckless,
I hereby revoke your membership of this hallowed party.
I have always voted Conservative in past General Elections.
I voted remain in 2016, so in this GE I think I will vote Lib Dem. Hopefully the Lib Dems will commit to revoking article 50 and continuing EU membership on the terms pre A50. I know of other Tory voters living in the same Constituency that are going to vote LD this time because of Brexit. It will probably mean the potential Tory gain of a Labour seat will not happen here if enough people do likewise. I don't think the Tories will convert lifelong Labour voters to support them whether they were for Brexit or not.
Why vote for something that is impossible? I can see committed Europhiles voting for the Lib Dems on the basis they will hold a second referendum at some point after we have left but the idea that we can just pretend the last year has not happened and go back into the EU on the same terms we had before is simply not realistic.
If the LibDems were to be the majority party at the next General Election, I think they would be within their rights to call a referendum on the revocation of Article 50.
Fortunately, I don't think that's a very likely scenario.
I don't think that's a plausible route to remaining. What we need are loud Brexiteers saying that a 'Brexit in name only' deal isn't worth the paper it's written on and we might as well stay if that's all that's on offer. Farage in the Commons would be perfect.
Early canvassing (from a few Labour pals) here in Wimbledon suggests the LDs are looking strong here. Outside chance of winning maybe with Labour likely to be pushed from second to third.
Are you allowed to double job between Holyrood and Westminster, or would they decide the SCON brand is doing about as well as it can and is relatively set at its current level, so no harm getting some of the talent to Westminster?
Talent , FFS are you insane
I was conjecturing as to their rationale behind such a move, should it occur.
KLE, I thought you had lost it , they could not spell talent.
The 0.7% of GDP for overseas aid is something we can and should be very proud of.
There will always be issues about how these things are administered and who gets the money but that is a question of reviewing and revising our criteria for overseas aid, not getting rid of or reducing it. I hope that leaving the EU might help this as significant amounts of overseas aid was channelled through them and the convoluted way in which it was administered made the whole thing rather opaque.
But the basic principle that rich countries should help poor ones for the long term benefit of everyone seems very sensible and admirable to me.
I would add that I have never understood the antipathy amongst some Tory politicians towards overseas aid. It seems a very old fashioned Conservative thing to do to help those les fortunate than oneself.
I know we have crossed swords on here but this is a superb post. Bravo!
Overseas aid is a painless mechanism for transferring money from poor people in rich countries to rich people in poor countries. The well-heeled like to defend it because they feel virtuous at no personal cost: it is their money going to good causes, innit, even if it goes via the taxman? The poor, who actually could do with the money themselves, not so much.
Twenty or thirty years ago maybe. Thankfully today aid is targeted far better (though there are still some issues) and is making a real difference to the lives of tens of millions of people around the world. Where do you think the money came from to eradicate smallpox? Or fight Ebola, or Polio? Who helps pay when there is an earthquake or the 2004 Boxing Day Tsunami?
Properly directed International Aid makes a vast difference to people's lives and as communications and transparency improve the amounts being lost or paid to dodgy governments is being driven down continuously.
Just because a few policeman beat up a man in a cell or frame someone does not mean we should disband the police. It means we tighten up on the rules that govern a very necessary service.
If you want to say we should not help those in need because it is not our problem then that is a valid (if to my mind wrong and immoral) argument. But saying we should not have International Aid because a small amount of it gets misused is simply illogical.
Early canvassing (from a few Labour pals) here in Wimbledon suggests the LDs are looking strong here. Outside chance of winning maybe with Labour likely to be pushed from second to third.
I hope you don’t mind me mentioning it, but your track record from 2015 on seat predictions does not give me very much confidence.
Comments
Manchester Gorton by-election cancellation confirmed.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-39646993
If more grammar schools are in the manifesto, then I'll sit on the sidelines, ditto if the 0.7% International Aid commitment is reduced.
Richard Tyndall so eloquently explained the good it does.
(Sadly, I can't fnd the relevant clip).
Mark Reckless,
I hereby revoke your membership of this hallowed party.
Members, turn your backs!
Consider if Corbyn won.
What about The Dry but not obsessed with Europe and the Gays new Tory Party... or was it The New Fiscally Dry, Socially Liberal, not obsessed by the gays and Europe Conservative Party?
Lilo Lil, she is a tart.
The footwear alone makes it a no no.
The Scotsman are reporting that she's going for it.
Hopefully she will get same as last time, a lying toerag
I'm having drinks and dinner with an old Osborne friend and staffer.
I might actually drink alcohol tonight.
If I go all SeanT tonight, I do apologise in advance.
It will be the 6th general election that I'll have had a vote in and, having voted Conservative at each one of those from 1997 through to 2015, this will be the first one at which the Conservatives don't get my vote.
It will also be the first general election at which I'm a member of any political party, having joined the Liberal Democrats a mere three weeks ago.
You could support the party lead by Hague, IDS, Howard but not May.
I also consider what would happen if every Remain voter went out & voted LibDem.
This GE feels like a serious gamble to me.
Hague tried his best under the most trying of circumstances, the worst thing that ever happened to him was to win the the Tory leadership in 1997.
Howard was a stop gap to help topple the Tory Corbyn.
So, I'm the last member of the Quad left standing....
Sorry been out most of the day.
I am happy to take that £20 bet if it still stands. I agree that the site is the beneficiary of the £20 from the loser.
I wonder if Prime Minister Balls would now be trying to stave off the galvanised Liberal Democrats of Leader of the Opposition Nick Clegg while a Dominic Grieve-led Tory party of 30 MPs sulked from the sidelines?
And will that be the fate of Labour ten years from now, as Diane Abbott tries to land yet another mighty blow on Ed Davey and Ruth Davidson?
'Ruth Davidson Would ‘Love’ To Be International Development Secretary In British Government'
http://tinyurl.com/m7k72d8
(Oh yes, and his CV, where he claimed to be the top rated City economist at the age of 23, also indicated a man comfortable with something between exaggeration and outright lying.)
Based on my reading of the polling data, I reckon that the current situation is as follows:
1. The Conservatives are holding nearly all of the support that they won under David Cameron in 2015. They were on about 38% of the vote, and are probably carrying a 37% share over from that election, with only a small number of distraught Continuity Remainers deserting to the Liberal Democrats. Tory defections to Labour or Ukip are negligible.
2. The Tories have won over about a third of the 2015 Ukip vote (I expect the remaining two-thirds to stick with the party, which would give Ukip a base of about 8%, similar to whhat the Lib Dems achieved when they were worn down to bedrock two years ago.) That gets May to 41%.
3. On top of that, the remaining tranche of floating voters who were willing to stick with Ed Miliband despite the Lab/Nat pact scare stories and questions over his economic competence will now have deserted Labour under Corbyn. That should be worth around another 2-3% of the popular vote, getting the Tories close to 45% and Labour down towards Michael Foot territory.
4. Most of the Lib Dems' ~3% uplift in the polls is down to Labourites defecting to them much faster than the Lib Dem left peels away to Labour and the Greens. Hence the point at which I reckon we now find ourselves, relative to the 2015 GE: Con +7%, Ukip -4%, LD +3%, Lab -6%.
Of course, this needn't be reflected exactly in terms of the movement of seats: the Lib Dems are very good local campaigners and should be able to exploit both this and pockets of heavy Remain support to outperform a little, although if they can get anything over 20 seats in total they'll be doing very well IMHO. Ukip are more likely than not to end up with nothing at all. Labour may suffer more than the vote share numbers suggest because, if this election is anything like the last one, the Conservatives will over-deliver in key marginals.
Having had Hamilton, Bell and Osborne as previous incumbents they deserve an MP who actually cares about the constituency rather than seeing it as a means to pursue some Westminster project or other, whether for personal gain or not. .
Fortunately, I don't think that's a very likely scenario.
Get nice odds on that.
'Strong and stable' - colleauges counted 13 mentions.. no prizes for guessing the Tory campaign strap line
Canvassed for Labour this afternoon. A few doubts expressed about Corbyn, but no sign of collapse. LDs will benefit from doubters. But in the main it is business as usual.
Properly directed International Aid makes a vast difference to people's lives and as communications and transparency improve the amounts being lost or paid to dodgy governments is being driven down continuously.
Just because a few policeman beat up a man in a cell or frame someone does not mean we should disband the police. It means we tighten up on the rules that govern a very necessary service.
If you want to say we should not help those in need because it is not our problem then that is a valid (if to my mind wrong and immoral) argument. But saying we should not have International Aid because a small amount of it gets misused is simply illogical.
If it had been Martin Brunt, he could have killed us all.