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  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,897
    felix said:

    Not at all likely.
    Based on local factors or just the majority? Lorely Burt was pretty popular when I lived in the constituency.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,018

    Not a fan of this election decision though. I see it as a way to derail Brexit.

    How? We will still be Brexiting no matter who wins.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,283
    kle4 said:

    It's not a day job question, it's a 'this is not the time' because of the disruption issue.
    I disagree. I think it's part of the PM's job to decide whether the Brexit project (which will last some years) can be accomplished OK with the current make-up of parliament or whether, on balance, it would be better to have a GE now.

    If the PM judges that, on balance, it would be best to have a GE now & get it out of the way for another 5 years, then (in her view) the time is right.

    OTOH, the whole aim of the SNP's Sindyref2 is to set in motion another enormous separation project. In my view, for the PM to risk both these projects taking place at the same time would not be at all in the interests of the UK.

    Quite easy to understand Now is the time for one thing and Now is not the time for another.

    We've just had Easter, which is when we have chocolate eggs, as opposed to tinsel & turkey.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,282
    ToryJim said:

    Only if it hasn't been junked first ;)
    And no worries for the boundary changes either :p
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,742
    MaxPB said:

    Hoping Lynton gets the barnacles off the boat again and starts with grammar schools. It's an unnecessary distraction from the real issues facing the education system in the nation. Manifesto commitments to T-Levels would be brilliant and a big commitment to apprenticeships is needed as well. We have to get our young people ready for Brexit.

    Unfortunately it is her difficulties with that sort of nonsense that has led to this. I fear more of it not less. Parties without opposition get self indulgent.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Will Solihull go Lib Dem again?

    Very unlikely IMO. They won it by a tiny majority when they were on 23% nationally and the Tories were on about 37%.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,961
    isam said:

    Who wants to ban the non face covering one?
    Wilders?
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 3,283
    malcolmg said:

    Tories are stuck with only one policy , anti independence, hated by the majority , seen as nasty evil and cruel to the poor , I doubt SNP will be quaking in their boots. hard to see Scotland voting for perpetual misery of Tory right wing government.
    Doesn't it follow then that Scotland must vote Labour to see off the Tory right wing government?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    kle4 said:

    I think May just did this to end Osborne - maybe, just maybe, he could try and justify being a half time MP and a newspaper editor, but he cannot do his new editor job and spend time campaigning in his constituency. He'll have to choose.

    Also, technically the FTPA is being adhered to; in reality it is being shat on with the enthusiastic support of the electorate, and that is another big nail in Osborne's political coffin.

    And yet another thing, the election gives her carte blanche to reshuffle the 3 brexiteers without loss of face. The fringe benefits of the election are innumerable.

    Kudos to whoever speculated that she made up her mind while walking with her husband, over Easter: she did exactly that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,018
    AnneJGP said:

    I disagree. I think it's part of the PM's job to decide whether the Brexit project (which will last some years) can be accomplished OK with the current make-up of parliament or whether, on balance, it would be better to have a GE now.

    If the PM judges that, on balance, it would be best to have a GE now & get it out of the way for another 5 years, then (in her view) the time is right.

    OTOH, the whole aim of the SNP's Sindyref2 is to set in motion another enormous separation project. In my view, for the PM to risk both these projects taking place at the same time would not be at all in the interests of the UK.

    Quite easy to understand Now is the time for one thing and Now is not the time for another.

    We've just had Easter, which is when we have chocolate eggs, as opposed to tinsel & turkey.
    Her judgement seems entirely to have been based on which one is good for her.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    edited April 2017
    Which rather goes against the BBC's 'jaded electorate' narrative. Just because their political journalists feel a bit fatigued, doesn't mean the wider populace is.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    AndyJS said:

    I think we can safely say the poll the other day with Con 38% Lab 29% was an outlier.
    Especially since it also had Ukip on double the support of the Lib Dems as well, IIRC. Doesn't sound plausible.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,192
    kle4 said:

    I think May just did this to end Osborne - maybe, just maybe, he could try and justify being a half time MP and a newspaper editor, but he cannot do his new editor job and spend time campaigning in his constituency. He'll have to choose.

    I suspect that is just a happy coincidence ;)
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited April 2017

    Will Solihull go Lib Dem again?

    Quite likely the campaign/coverage will have a heavy focus on the midlands, IMO.

    Journos - book your hotels now!
  • LadyBucketLadyBucket Posts: 590

    Decision time for GO, probably earlier than he anticipated, but as a motive for calling a snap election is plain nonsense.
    To suggest the PM called a GE to see the back of GO is the most ridiculous comment I have heard today.

    I can't believe he will run again because what will he campaign on? He was part of the disastrous 'Remain Campaign.' His 'Project Fear' budget has been shot to pieces and he is no fan of the PM.

  • CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    edited April 2017
    A planned terror attack in France has reportedly been thwarted by today's arrests in Marseilles.

    * Fillon's team, who were warned on Friday, are saying that the intelligence came from "British services".

    * The source says that "only François Fillon received tighter security" at that time. Not only anti-terror police but also snipers were present at his meetings in Montpellier on Friday and Nice on Monday. Le Monde reports that police found a video of one of the suspects standing in front of a Daesh flag holding a machine gun and a copy of Le Monde (well it would be that paper, wouldn't it?) with Fillon on the cover, with the words "la loi du talion (an eye for an eye)" written on the screen. (Did he do a bit of video editing to calm himself down?)

    * The Telegraph archly report, "While there has been no confirmation of their suspected targets, Marine Le Pen, the far-Right Front National candidate will hold what may be her last campaign rally in Marseille on Wednesday night."

    (That is such a disingenuous way to suggest that Le Pen's rally may have been the target.)

    * Le Pen's and Macron's teams also received photos of the suspects prior to the arrests.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Love a bit of Ecclesiastes. Vanity, vanity, all is vanity.
    And every gambler's motto:

    I returned, and saw under the sun, that the race is not to the swift, nor the battle to the strong, neither yet bread to the wise, nor yet riches to men of understanding, nor yet favour to men of skill; but time and chance happeneth to them all.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,912
    kle4 said:

    The poll says SNP supporters are split 38-31 that it is right. Maybe that's not reflective, but no other party is even close to those figures. I do find it surprising any would not be in favour.

    Everything is crazy in politics nowadays
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,018
    edited April 2017

    To suggest the PM called a GE to see the back of GO is the most ridiculous comment I have heard today.

    Would the inclusion of a smiley face have been a clearer indication of my intent with the comment?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    rcs1000 said:

    You're right, I misread this article http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/eu-referendum-results-your-area-11536368
    I don't think Brexit will be an important factor in Yardley. It'll be more a question of the respective personal votes of Hemming and Phillips.
  • CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    "By 49% to 17%, the public thinks that Theresa May is right to seek an early general election"

    Anything for you, guv!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,912
    Omnium said:

    Would it be better if they had two policies?

    However their policy as it stands isn't anti-independence, it's not hated by the majority, and although it may be seen as you say it clearly isn't seen by the consensus in that way.

    In Scotland it is.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,240
    Based on this poll the Tories would gain 58 seats from Labour, 2 from the LDs and 1 from UKIP and at least 1 from the SNP which would take them to 392 seats overall with Labour falling to 174
    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,298
    Mr. G, well, quite.

    It all started when Brown bottled the 2007 election, and has been gaining pace since.

    Odd to think that was a decade ago. I recall Andrew Neil seriously asking if the Conservative Party could survive if it lost the possibly impending election.

    I hope Neil and Raworth host the election coverage. They won't, of course.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,240
    SeanT said:

    There are no anti-Brexit parties. Even the Lib Dems have just changed their tune. All they want now is to "stay in the single market".

    So you have to form a NEW party, in the next week or two, choose your candidates, publish your manifesto, then win a majority at the election.

    Doddle.
    Farron said in an interview in the Standard he did still want to stay in the EU but on better terms so a vote for the LDs at least would be a vote to reverse Brexit, Labour is now just focused on staying in the single market rather than reversing Brexit
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,142
    kle4 said:

    How? We will still be Brexiting no matter who wins.
    We won't be Kipping though under any circumstances. The election will finally bury the Vote Leave promises, and we'll be left with Brexit in name only.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    HYUFD said:

    Based on this poll the Tories would gain 58 seats from Labour, 2 from the LDs and 1 from UKIP and at least 1 from the SNP which would take them to 392 seats overall with Labour falling to 174
    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative

    I don't think the Tories will win any from the Liberal Democrats. They could win more from Labour. I wonder if we would see the return of tactical voting. But with Corbyn at the helm, that would be wishful thinking.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,298
    edited April 2017
    Mr. Glenn, a plausible forecast. If it happens, NewKIP will be born.

    Edited extra bit: maybe NUKIP. Hmmm.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    Looks like a nice spot for an embassy

    https://twitter.com/ScotGovFM/status/854390409258303492
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    malcolmg said:

    Tories are stuck with only one policy , anti independence, hated by the majority , seen as nasty evil and cruel to the poor , I doubt SNP will be quaking in their boots. hard to see Scotland voting for perpetual misery of Tory right wing government.
    Of course the SNP will come a clear first.

    I'm curious to see which side of 45% the SNP finish on though.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,742
    surbiton said:

    I don't think the Tories will win any from the Liberal Democrats. They could win more from Labour. I wonder if we would see the return of tactical voting. But with Corbyn at the helm, that would be wishful thinking.
    On the contrary. I can see Corbyn being a strong incentive towards tactical voting.
  • theakestheakes Posts: 954
    Hear Labour may abstain tomorrow?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    if Osborne is going, do we need to put TSE on suicide watch?
  • I've been in work since 8.45am. since 9.30am I've done no work.

    I feel knackered, and am off home now.

    #TheresaMayRuiningProductivity
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,100
    Hold on. This changes everything...

    https://twitter.com/guardian/status/854391820385701888
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    It appears there is no Ipsos Mori poll
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,912
    AnneJGP said:

    Doesn't it follow then that Scotland must vote Labour to see off the Tory right wing government?
    LOL, they tried that for many many years, they are finished in Scotland for the forseeable future. Given the hug eswing to the xenophobic right in England that would eb a wasted vote for sure. Scotland's only hope for the future is SNP and independence.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    JackW said:

    What would the legal challenge be ?

    We we not invited ? ... :smiley:

    An empty chair with a pair of leopard skin shoes underneath would be worth a view.
    Surely if May is invited what can they do ? If it is a Brexit election it is worth hearing the other party leaders.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    murali_s said:

    What majority would they win if it was 11% now?
    Electoral Calculus says about 40-50 seats.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,240
    malcolmg said:

    LOL, they tried that for many many years, they are finished in Scotland for the forseeable future. Given the hug eswing to the xenophobic right in England that would eb a wasted vote for sure. Scotland's only hope for the future is SNP and independence.
    If Corbyn and Corbynism are trounced there is actually a chance Labour may finally decide to pick an electable leader
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,103
    surbiton said:

    I don't think the Tories will win any from the Liberal Democrats. They could win more from Labour. I wonder if we would see the return of tactical voting. But with Corbyn at the helm, that would be wishful thinking.
    It's likely to be tactical voting against Corbyn. He's been party to an entryist cabal.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,897
    MalcolmG thinks everyone who votes Conservative is xenophobic...
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Jonathan said:
    "It will be clear to many voters that if you are concerned about world peace, you have to vote for Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party."

    That's ambitious.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    chestnut said:

    Of course the SNP will come a clear first.

    I'm curious to see which side of 45% the SNP finish on though.
    FWIW as long as the SNP hit support above the UK/England Tory level - this will enhance their mandate !!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,912
    edited April 2017
    chestnut said:

    Of course the SNP will come a clear first.

    I'm curious to see which side of 45% the SNP finish on though.
    For sure , will be very interesting. If they break 50% then it is game over.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,313
    malcolmg said:

    In Scotland it is.
    These ideas may individually get over the wire in their acceptance in Scotland, but they're far from accepted as a package.

    The relatively pragmatic Tories are far from your enemy if you want an independent Scotland. Your actual enemy is clearly the somewhat brighter bloke that lives next door.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    chestnut said:

    Of course the SNP will come a clear first.

    I'm curious to see which side of 45% the SNP finish on though.
    Turnout dependent. The higher the turnout the better SNP will do as they have a lot of lazy voters.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,018
    edited April 2017
    Artist said:

    "It will be clear to many voters that if you are concerned about world peace, you have to vote for Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party."

    Lofty goal to be sure, Diane, but I am rather more immediately concerned with matters closer to home.
  • if Osborne is going, do we need to put TSE on suicide watch?

    No, because I've been re-reading this article all day, it gives me comfort.

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/09/01/george-osborne-the-modern-day-winston-churchill/

    And reciting this

    The Osborne is my shepherd; I shall not want.

    He maketh me to lie down in green pastures: he leadeth me beside the still waters.

    He restoreth my soul: he leadeth me in the paths of righteousness for his name's sake.

    Yea, though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death, I will fear no evil: for thou art with me; thy rod and thy staff they comfort me.

    Thou preparest a table before me in the presence of mine enemies: thou anointest my head with oil; my cup runneth over.

    Surely goodness and mercy shall follow me all the days of my life: and I will dwell in the house of the Osborne for ever.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    Wilders?
    Oh right. Can't see the problem with them myself, the ones that only show the eyes aren't good for society imo
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    theakes said:

    Hear Labour may abstain tomorrow?

    If moderate Labour MPs had a fight on them they could thwart May and Corbyn .I would not hold my breath though .
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,836
    surbiton said:

    I don't think the Tories will win any from the Liberal Democrats. They could win more from Labour. I wonder if we would see the return of tactical voting. But with Corbyn at the helm, that would be wishful thinking.
    I think they'll probably regain Richmond.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    What's happening in Georgia 6th district ? That is the one that matters today.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,240
    surbiton said:

    I don't think the Tories will win any from the Liberal Democrats. They could win more from Labour. I wonder if we would see the return of tactical voting. But with Corbyn at the helm, that would be wishful thinking.
    The 2 seats in question are Carshalton and Wallington and Southport, the former voted Leave and the latter Remain.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited April 2017
    Artist said:

    "It will be clear to many voters that if you are concerned about world peace, you have to vote for Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party."

    That's ambitious.
    Sounds threatening: Vote Corbyn – or we’ll send round Diane Abbott…! :lol:
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 58,836
    HYUFD said:

    Based on this poll the Tories would gain 58 seats from Labour, 2 from the LDs and 1 from UKIP and at least 1 from the SNP which would take them to 392 seats overall with Labour falling to 174
    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/conservative

    I would expect 2 to 3 gains from the SNP.
  • CyanCyan Posts: 1,262

    Wilders?
    And Le Pen wants to ban it in public places.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,298
    Will the Lib Dems recover in Scotland?

    Not in coalition with Evil Tories, not Evil Tories, not Corbynite Labour. Could be a nice home for a protest vote.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,742
    rcs1000 said:

    I would expect 2 to 3 gains from the SNP.
    I'm going for 4 but maybe I am getting carried away.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,282

    Will the Lib Dems recover in Scotland?

    Not in coalition with Evil Tories, not Evil Tories, not Corbynite Labour. Could be a nice home for a protest vote.

    I'm wondering how much tactical voting will be going on in Scotland.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,298
    Mr. Eagles, hmm. That's a high number given the reportedly high bar on charging.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    rcs1000 said:

    I think they'll probably regain Richmond.
    I am not too sure. They will possibly lose Twickenham and Kingston & Surbiton. They will not lose Carshalton. If they did not lose it in 2015, they won't now.
  • NEW THREAD

  • CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    Cyan said:

    And Le Pen wants to ban it in public places.
    One aspect of this kind of Islamophobia that I despise is the cowardice of it. If you are in a group and you want someone to stop doing something, go up to them and tell them to their face why.

    Don't make up a false reason, some fake wink-at-your-mates crap that would apply equally to someone else in the room who's doing the same thing and whose choices you consider to be completely unproblematic.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,282
    calum said:
    Pedant mode, but haven't they been considering it since they received the files?
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    I'm no expert, but isn't "considering" lawyerish for "not happening"?

    The likelihood of prosecution is so slim that the chances of Crick's little wank fantasy coming true are practically none.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,313
    Lammy on the BBC..

    He's going to say something stupid
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    calum said:
    The CPS should shut the fuck up. They leak like a sieve
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    RobD said:

    Pedant mode, but haven't they been considering it since they received the files?
    A few reselection headaches !
  • grabcocquegrabcocque Posts: 4,234
    As amusing as Crick's little masturbatory reverie has been, I think it demonstrates how deep is leftish delusion at the moment. Crick and C4 news honestly thought, apropos nothing, they were on to a MAJOR scandal that was going to rock Tories to their knees and open the door for Comrade Jez's ascendence.

    Delusion is a beautiful but tragic thing.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Yorkcity said:

    Surely if May is invited what can they do ? If it is a Brexit election it is worth hearing the other party leaders.
    It'll come down to whether the broadcasters have the bottle to empty chair the PM.

    They should invite her to all the debates. If she chooses to not attend, then fine. The opposition will have a couple of hours to discuss the merits of the government and all their good works .. :smile:

    The media should put a marker down that no party leader gets a veto on the debates.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,912
    Omnium said:

    These ideas may individually get over the wire in their acceptance in Scotland, but they're far from accepted as a package.

    The relatively pragmatic Tories are far from your enemy if you want an independent Scotland. Your actual enemy is clearly the somewhat brighter bloke that lives next door.
    Nobody within miles is brighter than me so that one does not resonate.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,912
    JackW said:

    It'll come down to whether the broadcasters have the bottle to empty chair the PM.

    They should invite her to all the debates. If she chooses to not attend, then fine. The opposition will have a couple of hours to discuss the merits of the government and all their good works .. :smile:

    The media should put a marker down that no party leader gets a veto on the debates.
    They could just use a barrel of snake oil instead
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,103
    edited April 2017
    JackW said:

    It'll come down to whether the broadcasters have the bottle to empty chair the PM.

    They should invite her to all the debates. If she chooses to not attend, then fine. The opposition will have a couple of hours to discuss the merits of the government and all their good works .. :smile:

    The media should put a marker down that no party leader gets a veto on the debates.
    I'm not sure there's much of a taste for it. Would people really want an hour of Corbyn or May?

    I'm with Brenda from Bristol on this one
This discussion has been closed.