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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » GE2017 – the first polling

SystemSystem Posts: 12,263
edited April 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » GE2017 – the first polling

By 49% to 17%, the public thinks that Theresa May is right to seek an early general election https://t.co/Lei8VydF1t pic.twitter.com/z9A2oep41X

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    First like TORIES!
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Quite surprised by this. It would be easy for Labour supporters until now to have shied away, only to come back on polling day. The indications, if anything, are the opposite: more voters come out in favour of the Tories.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Expected for a first poll - can this level of support be sustained? Maybe....
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,454
    Shame Rod has such problematic view on needless issues, his view would be interesting.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Quite surprised by this. It would be easy for Labour supporters until now to have shied away, only to come back on polling day. The indications, if anything, are the opposite: more voters come out in favour of the Tories.

    Two contradictory trends can be expected:

    1) The intensely engaged Labour moderates who have been saying "don't know" will reluctantly return to their party to ensure it is still viable after the election.

    2) The intensely unengaged average past Labour voters who have been saying "Labour" will look at the options and decide that they can't vote for Jeremy Corbyn's party. They'll probably mostly abstain.

    In my view, 2) will outweigh 1). Labour's poll share will in my view continue to slide. I'm not at all sure what the floor is, if there is a floor.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Is anyone keeping a list of MPs who are not standing again?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Mr. Root (FPT), campaign theme songs is a good idea.

    Labour:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jHPOzQzk9Qo
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,548
    Labour - Death of a Party by Blur

    Mrs May choice for Tories - Kill 'Em All by Metallica
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/rupertmyers/status/854372486703702016
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145
    Overwhelming endorsement of May's position. Clearly the public enjoy a good election night!
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    Doesn't look like the "May is a liar for saying she wouldn't call an election" message is cutting through.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,448
    Nevermind! Stick to your guns Jezza!
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,768
    Wondering what foreigners, with their boring tightly scheduled elections, make of all this.

    British politics had a mad, vibrancy about it, which is not seen much elsewhere.

    Maybe Australia.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/samcoatestimes/status/854372904322162688
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,548
    Tic Mic....cough cough....21st Century Socialism sweeping the OAP homes....
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/rupertmyers/status/854372486703702016

    PLEASE

    i will sell the left leg of my first born.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/854373056973860868
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,252
    The worrying thing for Lab is that even if there is a massive polling error (let's say it is actually Con 41, Lab 30) the Cons still increase their majority
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,448
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Shame Rod has such problematic view on needless issues, his view would be interesting.

    I'd like to see Rod and Plato (along with her pussies) back for the next seven weeks,,, It's all part of the PB general election experience (this will be my third on here)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145
    Jonathan said:

    Wondering what foreigners, with their boring tightly scheduled elections, make of all this.

    British politics had a mad, vibrancy about it, which is not seen much elsewhere.

    Maybe Australia.

    It's good, isn't it! One of the many reasons I dislike the FTPA with an irrational passion.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,548
    edited April 2017
    GIN1138 said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Shame Rod has such problematic view on needless issues, his view would be interesting.

    I'd like to see Rod and Plato (along with her pussies) back for the next seven weeks,,, It's all part of the PB general election experience (this will be my third on here)
    I think Rod's model is probably broken, as nowhere would it expect Tory leads of 20+ points and among the old farts who actually vote in droves it is like 80 points.

    Computer says....Nooooooooooo.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Mr. Gin, seconded.

    Mr. Vale2, depends which direction the theoretical polling error is in.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Quite surprised by this. It would be easy for Labour supporters until now to have shied away, only to come back on polling day. The indications, if anything, are the opposite: more voters come out in favour of the Tories.

    Two contradictory trends can be expected:

    1) The intensely engaged Labour moderates who have been saying "don't know" will reluctantly return to their party to ensure it is still viable after the election.

    2) The intensely unengaged average past Labour voters who have been saying "Labour" will look at the options and decide that they can't vote for Jeremy Corbyn's party. They'll probably mostly abstain.

    In my view, 2) will outweigh 1). Labour's poll share will in my view continue to slide. I'm not at all sure what the floor is, if there is a floor.
    The biggest swing will be to DNV.

    The stupidity of Jezza will bring about a one party state, for a generation.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited April 2017
    One for Corbyn for agreeing to GE2017 - Sheryl Crow's "My Favourite Mistake"

    For Mrs May "Good girl gone bad" by Rhianna

    :)
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    edited April 2017
    It was evenly split when YouGov asked last July

    http://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/07/12/public-split-early-election/
  • FattyBolgerFattyBolger Posts: 299
    Plymouth Argyle promoted and a GE election to look forward to.

    Good times.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Is anyone keeping a list of MPs who are not standing again?

    I'd be interested to see that list too.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited April 2017
    foxinsoxuk said:

    The stupidity of Jezza will bring about a one party state, for a generation.

    It already has done. I have been complaining about it for weeks (months maybe)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,910
    If anyone saw my comment on the last thread: take anything better than 1-30 on the LibDems to retain Orkney & Shetland. The seats saw a big swing to the LDs last year in Holyrood, with them getting 67.4% in both constituencies.

    I see no reason why we won't see a similar sized swing to them in June.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/election_data/status/854367414204727296

    That is a seriously scary statistic for Labour. I had no idea the Tory lead with the oldies was, comparitively, so small back then compared to now.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,910
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/854373056973860868

    Jesus. That's made me rethink EVERYTHING.

    Dealbreaker.
    I'm seriously considering drinking French wine rather than Australian this evening now.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/854373056973860868

    yes, could be interesting for him, Nicky Morgan and Alan Duncan, all being pro-remain neighbours. All look pretty safe.

    A mandate for soft and floppy Brexit awaits...
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    SeanT said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/854373056973860868

    Jesus. That's made me rethink EVERYTHING.

    Dealbreaker.
    Ditto. Sign us up for the EUARMY, Euro, fully integrated one Europe state. Sod federalism - just go the whole hog.

    Move over God, Stephen Dorrell has spoken.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Mrs C, you're not the only one complaining. Not even a lefty, but the whole point of democracy is a real choice, not a choice between so-so and deranged communist.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,544
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Is anyone keeping a list of MPs who are not standing again?

    Order Order started one earlier.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,191
    I've been quite busy with actual elections of late but this mornings announcement by May probably one of the bigger surprises of recent history. I hate to be the pessimistic type but I think whilst the Conservatives will win pretty comfortably I'm not certain it will be an annihilation type result. I just think there are plenty of ways this could go wrong.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    kle4 said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/election_data/status/854367414204727296

    That is a seriously scary statistic for Labour. I had no idea the Tory lead with the oldies was, comparitively, so small back then compared to now.
    The Boomers want their glory days in 1957 again before they pop their clogs. Only the Brexit party can deliver :D
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    SeanT said:

    Another thing: this election call was pretty much a total surprise, even to experts. That means May has an excellent poker face.

    A plus when it comes to Brexit negotiations.

    My thoughts exactly.

    The posh boys always seemed incapable of doing anything without telling or signalling to everyman and his dog what was coming up.....
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    rottenborough said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Is anyone keeping a list of MPs who are not standing again?

    Order Order started one earlier.
    Does a new Speaker need voting in or does Bercow just carry on?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Quite surprised by this. It would be easy for Labour supporters until now to have shied away, only to come back on polling day. The indications, if anything, are the opposite: more voters come out in favour of the Tories.

    Two contradictory trends can be expected:

    1) The intensely engaged Labour moderates who have been saying "don't know" will reluctantly return to their party to ensure it is still viable after the election.

    2) The intensely unengaged average past Labour voters who have been saying "Labour" will look at the options and decide that they can't vote for Jeremy Corbyn's party. They'll probably mostly abstain.

    In my view, 2) will outweigh 1). Labour's poll share will in my view continue to slide. I'm not at all sure what the floor is, if there is a floor.
    I think there is, but I think the two trends you identify will be the case. Even if they don't view it as their fault if it happens, the Labour moderates don't want to participate by proxy in the annihilation of the brand, they will try to minimise the damage. But that 2 though. [anecdote alert] Just spoke with a 60+ person who said 'I'm a Labour man, but who could vote for them at the moment? The MPs don't even trust the leader' (Note, they are not a Corbyn fan).

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 72,161
    In light of these tweets, Liverpool Wavertree where two Labour candidates will be standing should be added to the surprise fallers!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145
    SeanT said:

    Another thing: this election call was pretty much a total surprise, even to experts. That means May has an excellent poker face.

    A plus when it comes to Brexit negotiations.

    It does warm the cockles that we can still have snap elections even with the dreadful FTPA.
  • BudGBudG Posts: 711
    Kantar Sofres

    Macron 24 (=)
    Le Pen 23 (-1)
    Fillon 18.5 (+1.5)
    Melenchon 18 (=)

    http://www.rtl.fr/actu/politique/sondage-presidentielle-macron-le-pen-creuse-ecart-fillon-devant-melenchon-7788189207
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Mortimer said:

    Ditto. Sign us up for the EUARMY, Euro, fully integrated one Europe state. Sod federalism - just go the whole hog.

    It works for me!

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,544
    ToryJim said:

    I've been quite busy with actual elections of late but this mornings announcement by May probably one of the bigger surprises of recent history. I hate to be the pessimistic type but I think whilst the Conservatives will win pretty comfortably I'm not certain it will be an annihilation type result. I just think there are plenty of ways this could go wrong.

    "I just think there are plenty of ways this could go wrong."

    There are, but Corbyn will make sure none of them happen.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,768
    SeanT said:

    Another thing: this election call was pretty much a total surprise, even to experts. That means May has an excellent poker face.

    A plus when it comes to Brexit negotiations.

    Corbyn clearly knew.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Curious that the SNP are more split on if this is right or wrong - considering it totally undermines any May argument about not holding an IndyRef, I'd have thought they would all be thrilled.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,910
    Some value bets on Betfair right now, despite big spreads.

    LibDems sub 18.5 seats @ 3.85. Should be closer to evens.
    UKIP to not win a seat @ 1.14.
    Election to go ahead: lay @ 1.03. (Has to be a better than 33-1 chance that it gets delayed by a week due to FPTP issues or a requirement to do a one line bill.)
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Tomorrow’s PM debate will just last 90 minutes, assuming there are no statements or urgent questions it will start after PMQs at 12.30pm and MPs will vote at 2pm.

    I’m sure Bercow’s ego will try and string it out for longer tho….
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/854373056973860868

    Q7. Which one of the following do you think would be the strongest Brexit policy to campaign on? Base: All respondents

    Brexit no matter: 36
    Brexit with good deal: 25
    Brexit approved 2nd referendum: 6
    No Brexit: 15
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145
    SquareRoot said:

    rottenborough said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Is anyone keeping a list of MPs who are not standing again?

    Order Order started one earlier.
    Does a new Speaker need voting in or does Bercow just carry on?
    There'll be an election. The question is whether he'll be opposed.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,910
    SeanT said:

    Another thing: this election call was pretty much a total surprise, even to experts. That means May has an excellent poker face.

    A plus when it comes to Brexit negotiations.

    Either that or May only heard about the election today too.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    rottenborough said:

    ToryJim said:

    I've been quite busy with actual elections of late but this mornings announcement by May probably one of the bigger surprises of recent history. I hate to be the pessimistic type but I think whilst the Conservatives will win pretty comfortably I'm not certain it will be an annihilation type result. I just think there are plenty of ways this could go wrong.

    "I just think there are plenty of ways this could go wrong."

    There are, but Corbyn will make sure none of them happen.
    Also, they'd have to go wrong extremely quickly. There'd be many more ways for things to go wrong over a three-year rather than seven-week timescale.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    SeanT said:

    Another thing: this election call was pretty much a total surprise, even to experts. That means May has an excellent poker face.

    A plus when it comes to Brexit negotiations.

    Only because either she lied directly to our faces or she changes her mind very quickly even though the facts have barely altered in a short space of time. The first might win a round of negotiations but then face consequences, the latter could be an asset in terms of flexibility at least.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mrs C, you're not the only one complaining. Not even a lefty, but the whole point of democracy is a real choice, not a choice between so-so and deranged communist.

    :+1:
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    If the Tories win back Richmond Park, Sarah Olney will have been an MP for only 7 months. When was the last time an MP served for such a short term?
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/854373056973860868


    The definitive 'wet' Tory letter.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    foxinsoxuk said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Quite surprised by this. It would be easy for Labour supporters until now to have shied away, only to come back on polling day. The indications, if anything, are the opposite: more voters come out in favour of the Tories.

    Two contradictory trends can be expected:

    1) The intensely engaged Labour moderates who have been saying "don't know" will reluctantly return to their party to ensure it is still viable after the election.

    2) The intensely unengaged average past Labour voters who have been saying "Labour" will look at the options and decide that they can't vote for Jeremy Corbyn's party. They'll probably mostly abstain.

    In my view, 2) will outweigh 1). Labour's poll share will in my view continue to slide. I'm not at all sure what the floor is, if there is a floor.
    The biggest swing will be to DNV.

    The stupidity of Jezza will bring about a one party state, for a generation.
    Actually to be fair it is the stupidity of the MPs who nominated him and the thousands of members who voted for him..twice! This is why his departure will solve little.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,075
    Mr. G, that's a slight spreading of the polling. Such a result would be alright.

    Mr. T, assuming Corbyn walks.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145
    edited April 2017
    not_on_fire said:

    If the Tories win back Richmond Park, Sarah Olney will have been an MP for only 7 months. When was the last time an MP served for such a short term?

    To answer your question, looks like Nicol Stephen in 1991, Kincardine and Deeside.

    Here's a list:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Kingdom_MPs_with_the_shortest_service

    Poor Thomas Higgins, an MP for 0 days!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,544
    RobD said:

    SeanT said:

    Another thing: this election call was pretty much a total surprise, even to experts. That means May has an excellent poker face.

    A plus when it comes to Brexit negotiations.

    It does warm the cockles that we can still have snap elections even with the dreadful FTPA.
    Further explanation of why FTPA is bollx.

    "In the current case, however, it seems that the Act really has changed only the choreography, not the underlying pattern of power. We see yet again – as so often – that the UK has a fundamentally political constitution: one in which the politics, rather than the law, matters most."

    https://constitution-unit.com/2017/04/18/the-fixed-term-parliaments-act-and-the-snap-election/
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    kle4 said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/election_data/status/854367414204727296

    That is a seriously scary statistic for Labour. I had no idea the Tory lead with the oldies was, comparitively, so small back then compared to now.
    It is - and those are the folks nailed on to vote.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270
    kle4 said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/election_data/status/854367414204727296

    That is a seriously scary statistic for Labour. I had no idea the Tory lead with the oldies was, comparitively, so small back then compared to now.
    So many factors going into that which would be fascinating to get to the bottom of it.

    I suspect it's mainly down to just general competence, they know the Tories provide a more stable better run government than Corbyn would and feel safer. Also old enough some of them to remember the old harder left Labour and of course Jezbollah's past comments and the IRA activity especially in the 70's-90's.

    The group that are the most likely demographic to vote see him as a huge turn off, that's fatal.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    RobD said:

    SquareRoot said:

    rottenborough said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Is anyone keeping a list of MPs who are not standing again?

    Order Order started one earlier.
    Does a new Speaker need voting in or does Bercow just carry on?
    There'll be an election. The question is whether he'll be opposed.
    I think he should be - they're near enough at open war with him, the Tories, so may as well make it official, then get a Labour MP in as Speaker.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,709
    SeanT said:

    Another thing: this election call was pretty much a total surprise, even to experts. That means May has an excellent poker face.

    A plus when it comes to Brexit negotiations.

    If you think this was a surprise, just wait until she announces the second referendum.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    RobD said:

    not_on_fire said:

    If the Tories win back Richmond Park, Sarah Olney will have been an MP for only 7 months. When was the last time an MP served for such a short term?

    To answer your question, looks like Nicol Stephen in 1991, Kincardine and Deeside.

    Here's a list:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Kingdom_MPs_with_the_shortest_service

    Poor Thomas Higgins, an MP for 0 days!
    And Alfred Dobbs - won an election, died in a car accident the next day, talk about highs and lows.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,880
    edmundintokyo said:

    SeanT said:

    Another thing: this election call was pretty much a total surprise, even to experts. That means May has an excellent poker face.

    A plus when it comes to Brexit negotiations.

    If you think this was a surprise, just wait until she announces the second referendum.
    I'm waiting for the day she goes all Gorbachev on the precious union.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Carolus_Rex said:

    Doesn't look like the "May is a liar for saying she wouldn't call an election" message is cutting through.

    I believe, from one or two here, that the correct phrase is, lying bitch. The internet warrior is strong.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,548
    edited April 2017
    SeanT said:

    Another thing: this election call was pretty much a total surprise, even to experts. That means May has an excellent poker face.

    A plus when it comes to Brexit negotiations.

    Given Crosby and Co are already on board, it has to be presumed this has been in the works for a while. I am guessing formulating when to go and polling what is the best approach to maximize gains.

    No way she called Lynton from the top of Mount Snowdon yesterday and went fancy another go at this election jiggery pokery.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,795
    So baseline worst case Labour share is 12%... Labour still has some way to potentially fall...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    RobD said:

    SeanT said:

    Another thing: this election call was pretty much a total surprise, even to experts. That means May has an excellent poker face.

    A plus when it comes to Brexit negotiations.

    It does warm the cockles that we can still have snap elections even with the dreadful FTPA.
    It was to make them harder, not impossible, sometimes they are needed.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,806
    Dimbleby opines that other parties may "empty chair" the Cons in a TV debate.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,263
    SquareRoot said:

    rottenborough said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Is anyone keeping a list of MPs who are not standing again?

    Order Order started one earlier.
    Does a new Speaker need voting in or does Bercow just carry on?
    Theresa May only called the election to go "Ha!" at this recent pb.com thread:

    "If you fancy a 16% return in just over eight months, this might be the bet for you"....
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,373
    Just partook in a very comprehensive YouGov poll on this election.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,548
    May 30 will mark the arrival of House of Cards season 5...

    I really won't be getting anything done in the first week of June then.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,241
    Net "good job"

    May: +23
    Corbyn: -48
    Fallon: -18 (48% DK)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    rogerh said:

    Am I right in saying that boundary changes from 2015 have not yet passed into law.If so then the June 8th election will be fought on existing boundaries -that mean the Tories will get less help than they thought.

    Yes
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,548
    CarlottaVance said:

    Net "good job"

    May: +23
    Corbyn: -48
    Fallon: -18 (48% DK)

    Just wait until the public really get to know Jezza...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    geoffw said:

    Dimbleby opines that other parties may "empty chair" the Cons in a TV debate.

    Good. Fun little diversions, if the Tories don't want to participate, that's fine.
  • LordWakefieldLordWakefield Posts: 144
    rcs1000 said:

    Some value bets on Betfair right now, despite big spreads.

    LibDems sub 18.5 seats @ 3.85. Should be closer to evens.
    UKIP to not win a seat @ 1.14.
    Election to go ahead: lay @ 1.03. (Has to be a better than 33-1 chance that it gets delayed by a week due to FPTP issues or a requirement to do a one line bill.)

    So basically i can lay Labour @1.15 to win Hartlepool plus a few other shots in a couple of seats were UKIP are second in the Northern rust belt? Harlepool is were UKIP still have a strong local organisation.
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    geoffw said:

    Dimbleby opines that other parties may "empty chair" the Cons in a TV debate.


    She'd still win...

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    rcs1000 said:

    Some value bets on Betfair right now, despite big spreads.

    LibDems sub 18.5 seats @ 3.85. Should be closer to evens.
    UKIP to not win a seat @ 1.14.
    Election to go ahead: lay @ 1.03. (Has to be a better than 33-1 chance that it gets delayed by a week due to FPTP issues or a requirement to do a one line bill.)

    The UKIP one is 1.4 w Lads!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,263
    geoffw said:

    Dimbleby opines that other parties may "empty chair" the Cons in a TV debate.

    *May pencils in a Manifesto pledge to end the BBC Licence Fee.....*
  • trawltrawl Posts: 142
    Can anyone recall how early/late SPIN put up the total seats spreads at GE2015?
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    Jonathan said:

    Wondering what foreigners, with their boring tightly scheduled elections, make of all this.

    British politics had a mad, vibrancy about it, which is not seen much elsewhere.

    Maybe Australia.

    Canada is good too - all their parties seem to wildly swing each election and they had plenty of short term minority governments until recently
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    It is a huge consolation that the cabal that had taken over the Labour Party are going to get their comeuppance. It almost makes the looming colossal defeat something to look forward to. Abbott shadow Home Secretary. It's not even funny.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,225
    Taking Alastair Meeks metaphor earlier today maybe the Tory theme should be the Wurzles and "I've got a brand new combine harvester and I'll give you the key. "
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Jonathan said:

    Wondering what foreigners, with their boring tightly scheduled elections, make of all this.

    British politics had a mad, vibrancy about it, which is not seen much elsewhere.

    Maybe Australia.

    With 3 year elections, I believe, and party leaders who get knifed but don't stay down and knife their stabbers back, I think they might go too far in the opposite direction.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    felix said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Quite surprised by this. It would be easy for Labour supporters until now to have shied away, only to come back on polling day. The indications, if anything, are the opposite: more voters come out in favour of the Tories.

    Two contradictory trends can be expected:

    1) The intensely engaged Labour moderates who have been saying "don't know" will reluctantly return to their party to ensure it is still viable after the election.

    2) The intensely unengaged average past Labour voters who have been saying "Labour" will look at the options and decide that they can't vote for Jeremy Corbyn's party. They'll probably mostly abstain.

    In my view, 2) will outweigh 1). Labour's poll share will in my view continue to slide. I'm not at all sure what the floor is, if there is a floor.
    The biggest swing will be to DNV.

    The stupidity of Jezza will bring about a one party state, for a generation.
    Actually to be fair it is the stupidity of the MPs who nominated him and the thousands of members who voted for him..twice! This is why his departure will solve little.
    Or we can go further, the folk who were stupid enough to vote Conservative in 2015!
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/854378001739505664
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,910
    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Some value bets on Betfair right now, despite big spreads.

    LibDems sub 18.5 seats @ 3.85. Should be closer to evens.
    UKIP to not win a seat @ 1.14.
    Election to go ahead: lay @ 1.03. (Has to be a better than 33-1 chance that it gets delayed by a week due to FPTP issues or a requirement to do a one line bill.)

    The UKIP one is 1.4 w Lads!
    Take it!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Roger said:

    It is a huge consolation that the cabal that had taken over the Labour Party are going to get their comeuppance. It almost makes the looming colossal defeat something to look forward to. Abbott shadow Home Secretary. It's not even funny.

    We can hope

    The scarier thought is what if Abbott's talk is actually right?! Not suggesting it is, but can you imagine the surprise and dismay?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,548
    edited April 2017
    MarqueeMark said:

    geoffw said:

    Dimbleby opines that other parties may "empty chair" the Cons in a TV debate.

    *May pencils in a Manifesto pledge to end the BBC Licence Fee.....*
    Wouldn't surprise me if she told them to Foxtrot Oscar...I mean they messaged Sky's Billy Bunter (calling him exactly that) telling him to do one.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    geoffw said:

    Dimbleby opines that other parties may "empty chair" the Cons in a TV debate.

    They should.

    No political party should be able to torpedo debates.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,448
    geoffw said:

    Dimbleby opines that other parties may "empty chair" the Cons in a TV debate.

    Good luck with sorting all that out in just seven weeks...

    Dimbleby is a fool
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    MarqueeMark said:

    geoffw said:

    Dimbleby opines that other parties may "empty chair" the Cons in a TV debate.

    *May pencils in a Manifesto pledge to end the BBC Licence Fee.....*
    If she doesn't think they are worth attending, why would she, even as a joke, feel the need to be vindictive for empty chairing her?
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    not_on_fire said:

    If the Tories win back Richmond Park, Sarah Olney will have been an MP for only 7 months. When was the last time an MP served for such a short term?

    There are no shortage of briefer terms than that, largely as a result of death or defeat at a subsequent general election. The all-seeing (if not always entirely reliable) eye of Wikipedia suggests that the shortest terms served in recent times were those of two by-election winners: Bobby Sands (died after 25 days in 1981) and Michael Carr (died after 57 days in 1990.)

    The shortest ever term of any MP (at least since 1900,) being zero, was that of one Thomas Higgins in 1906, who died in between the close of polls and the declaration, and was declared to have been elected posthumously.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,726
    David_Evershed said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/854373056973860868


    The definitive 'wet' Tory letter.
    Given that that is effectively urging voters to vote against the Tories, shouldn't he be kicked out of the party?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    GIN1138 said:

    geoffw said:

    Dimbleby opines that other parties may "empty chair" the Cons in a TV debate.

    Good luck with sorting all that out in just seven weeks...

    Dimbleby is a fool
    Agreements can happen a lot faster if you have less time to argue about things.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,768
    JackW said:

    geoffw said:

    Dimbleby opines that other parties may "empty chair" the Cons in a TV debate.

    They should.

    No political party should be able to torpedo debates.
    Schedule the programme. Send the invite. Whoever shows up, shows up. Simple.
This discussion has been closed.