politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » GE2017 – the first polling
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Genuinely....did anything think the debates in 2010 and whatever we want to call the thing in 2015 were any good?0
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Yes, it means on that Polling, Fillon has to make up a 5.5 point gap with Macron to win. Because he needs Macron out, otherwise he stands no chance in the runoff.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. G, that's a slight spreading of the polling. Such a result would be alright.
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Most unlikely to happen. Presume they would be taken off the air by legal challenges, Besides, without the Prime Minister involved, how many people (especially those more inclined to support her anyway, whose minds the other parties need to change) would bother to watch anyway?JackW said:
They should.geoffw said:Dimbleby opines that other parties may "empty chair" the Cons in a TV debate.
No political party should be able to torpedo debates.0 -
Yes. There is talk today of May putting party before country, but actually what the country needs for Brexit to be a success is a strong PM with a solid majority: as often the interests exactly coincide. If you want a textbook case of party before country don' look no further than the FTPA - a permanent, poorly thought out vandalising of the country's constitution to buy a temporary 4 or 8 year advantage for the parties which came up with it.rottenborough said:
Further explanation of why FTPA is bollx.RobD said:
It does warm the cockles that we can still have snap elections even with the dreadful FTPA.SeanT said:Another thing: this election call was pretty much a total surprise, even to experts. That means May has an excellent poker face.
A plus when it comes to Brexit negotiations.
"In the current case, however, it seems that the Act really has changed only the choreography, not the underlying pattern of power. We see yet again – as so often – that the UK has a fundamentally political constitution: one in which the politics, rather than the law, matters most."
https://constitution-unit.com/2017/04/18/the-fixed-term-parliaments-act-and-the-snap-election/0 -
Wondering if MEPs like Hannan will jump.0
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Particularly when we know a firm view from May might change later.kle4 said:0 -
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The SNP have very little to gain and a fair bit to lose in Westminster representation with a new election.kle4 said:Curious that the SNP are more split on if this is right or wrong - considering it totally undermines any May argument about not holding an IndyRef, I'd have thought they would all be thrilled.
Unlike the rest of the UK, it's not going to be Brexit that dominates. It could end up as a referendum about another referendum, and the SNP have positioned themeselves as pro-EU, pro-Indy - which is a 30% view. They obviously won't fall back to that, but seem unlikely to emulate their feats of May 2015. Some of their vote is anti-EU and some is pro-union and doesn't want independence. These voters must be wondering whether they were wise to lend the SNP their vote.
Domestically they also have this to contend with:
"Output of the Scottish economy contracted by 0.2% during the fourth quarter of 2016."
If the next figures show a further contraction, Scotland will be in recession, at a time when everywhere else in the UK is exeriencing growth. Slap bang in the middle of an election.
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FrancisUrquhart said:
Genuinely....did anything think the debates in 2010 and whatever we want to call the thing in 2015 were any good?
1. "No Labour didn't overspend."
2. Trips up leaving stage.
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Cleggasm was interesting back in 2010 and certainly changed the election outcome. But on the whole I am not a fan of the debates, too many parties involved.FrancisUrquhart said:Genuinely....did anything think the debates in 2010 and whatever we want to call the thing in 2015 were any good?
I don't mind the US one where there are two candidates.0 -
I think they did no harm to any part of the process (people can make up their minds on the basis of stupid billboards if they want, why not a single debate), got reasonable viewing figures, and at least forced them to reiterate their messages with a degree of challenge. So on the whole better than not having them.FrancisUrquhart said:Genuinely....did anything think the debates in 2010 and whatever we want to call the thing in 2015 were any good?
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When I was a fresh faced young undergraduate, my pal's brother won a by-election in November 1991, only to lose the seat in the May 92 GE.Black_Rook said:
There are no shortage of briefer terms than that, largely as a result of death or defeat at a subsequent general election. The all-seeing (if not always entirely reliable) eye of Wikipedia suggests that the shortest terms served in recent times were those of two by-election winners: Bobby Sands (died after 25 days in 1981) and Michael Carr (died after 57 days in 1990.)not_on_fire said:If the Tories win back Richmond Park, Sarah Olney will have been an MP for only 7 months. When was the last time an MP served for such a short term?
The shortest ever term of any MP (at least since 1900,) being zero, was that of one Thomas Higgins in 1906, who died in between the close of polls and the declaration, and was declared to have been elected posthumously.
Feel a bit sorry for people like Gareth Snell, who've just worked through a fairly grim by-election, only to have to re-run it (hopefully without Nuttall this time).0 -
who is against it , I have not heard anyone yet thinking it is wrong, just looking forward to getting stuck in to teh nasties.kle4 said:Curious that the SNP are more split on if this is right or wrong - considering it totally undermines any May argument about not holding an IndyRef, I'd have thought they would all be thrilled.
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I don't see that it does undermine that argument. Like I said earlier, deciding that a GE is needed and arranging it are part of the Day Job for Mrs May. Completely different circumstances.kle4 said:Curious that the SNP are more split on if this is right or wrong - considering it totally undermines any May argument about not holding an IndyRef, I'd have thought they would all be thrilled.
A more fitting comparison would be if Mrs May had decided to go for EUref 2.0 -
John Hemming expecting to stand again for Yardley against Jess Phillips:
""John HemmingVerified account @johnhemming4mp 3h3 hours ago
Replying to @noaxnow
Thank you for that. I expect to be confirmed as candidate for June 8th some time later today."
twitter.com/johnhemming4mp/with_replies"
Read more: http://vote-2012.proboards.com/posts/recent#ixzz4eccwGHaR0 -
LOL....Craig on Sky saying Andy Burnham is in a quandary....isn't that how he is every day? To support posh coffee shops or not...0
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I personally thought 2010 was fine, 2015 was a mess (which is obviously what Cameron wanted).kle4 said:
I think they did no harm to any part of the process (people can make up their minds on the basis of stupid billboards if they want, why not a single debate), got reasonable viewing figures, and at least forced them to reiterate their messages with a degree of challenge. So on the whole better than not having them.FrancisUrquhart said:Genuinely....did anything think the debates in 2010 and whatever we want to call the thing in 2015 were any good?
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What would the legal challenge be ?Black_Rook said:
Most unlikely to happen. Presume they would be taken off the air by legal challenges, Besides, without the Prime Minister involved, how many people (especially those more inclined to support her anyway, whose minds the other parties need to change) would bother to watch anyway?JackW said:
They should.geoffw said:Dimbleby opines that other parties may "empty chair" the Cons in a TV debate.
No political party should be able to torpedo debates.
We we not invited ? ...
An empty chair with a pair of leopard skin shoes underneath would be worth a view.0 -
Labour really do face a potential extinction event here. I think TSE mentioned this idea. However it's only if they're very daft indeed. Corbyn is very daft indeed, but we'll see.Roger said:It is a huge consolation that the cabal that had taken over the Labour Party are going to get their comeuppance. It almost makes the looming colossal defeat something to look forward to. Abbott shadow Home Secretary. It's not even funny.
The LDs face an open goal. However they'll spend a couple of weeks strapping their boots on.
I think this is a mistake by May, but the chances of it not paying off are moderate.0 -
The poll says SNP supporters are split 38-31 that it is right. Maybe that's not reflective, but no other party is even close to those figures. I do find it surprising any would not be in favour.malcolmg said:
who is against it , I have not heard anyone yet thinking it is wrong, just looking forward to getting stuck in to teh nasties.kle4 said:Curious that the SNP are more split on if this is right or wrong - considering it totally undermines any May argument about not holding an IndyRef, I'd have thought they would all be thrilled.
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One thing to look at is that clearly May will win the election, so how will she reshuffle her team? Who will she ditch when she has the leeway to? Who will come back in etc. I suspect David Davis is safe but is Boris, will she fire Liz Truss etc. I guess it all depends on size of mandate but it could be a fascinating reshuffle as her first chance to have a completely free hand etc.0
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Ah yes of course. Mr Corbyn knew because Mr Putin warned him in advance.rcs1000 said:
Either that or May only heard about the election today too.SeanT said:Another thing: this election call was pretty much a total surprise, even to experts. That means May has an excellent poker face.
A plus when it comes to Brexit negotiations.0 -
Today was a message to the EU as well as the UK.SeanT said:Another thing: this election call was pretty much a total surprise, even to experts. That means May has an excellent poker face.
A plus when it comes to Brexit negotiations.0 -
To be honest I don't think they should be much bigger than 3.5 to win a seatrcs1000 said:
Take it!isam said:
The UKIP one is 1.4 w Lads!rcs1000 said:Some value bets on Betfair right now, despite big spreads.
LibDems sub 18.5 seats @ 3.85. Should be closer to evens.
UKIP to not win a seat @ 1.14.
Election to go ahead: lay @ 1.03. (Has to be a better than 33-1 chance that it gets delayed by a week due to FPTP issues or a requirement to do a one line bill.)0 -
It's not a day job question, it's a 'this is not the time' because of the disruption issue.AnneJGP said:
I don't see that it does undermine that argument. Like I said earlier, deciding that a GE is needed and arranging it are part of the Day Job for Mrs May. Completely different circumstances.kle4 said:Curious that the SNP are more split on if this is right or wrong - considering it totally undermines any May argument about not holding an IndyRef, I'd have thought they would all be thrilled.
A more fitting comparison would be if Mrs May had decided to go for EUref 2.0 -
Has Gina Miller launched a court case against this early General Election yet?0
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Tories are stuck with only one policy , anti independence, hated by the majority , seen as nasty evil and cruel to the poor , I doubt SNP will be quaking in their boots. hard to see Scotland voting for perpetual misery of Tory right wing government.chestnut said:
The SNP have very little to gain and a fair bit to lose in Westminster representation with a new election.kle4 said:Curious that the SNP are more split on if this is right or wrong - considering it totally undermines any May argument about not holding an IndyRef, I'd have thought they would all be thrilled.
Unlike the rest of the UK, it's not going to be Brexit that dominates. It could end up as a referendum about another referendum, and the SNP have positioned themeselves as pro-EU, pro-Indy - which is a 30% view. They obviously won't fall back to that, but seem unlikely to emulate their feats of May 2015. Some of their vote is anti-EU and some is pro-union and doesn't want independence. These voters must be wondering whether they were wise to lend the SNP their vote.
Domestically they also have this to contend with:
"Output of the Scottish economy contracted by 0.2% during the fourth quarter of 2016."
If the next figures show a further contraction, Scotland will be in recession, at a time when everywhere else in the UK is exeriencing growth. Slap bang in the middle of an election.0 -
Walter Mitty obviously finished his neuro-science lecturing duties for the day, as he is now all over the media.0
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Julian Huppert standing again for the LDs in Cambridge.0
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But it's a message she can only send once. She now has five years without being able to use recourse to the people as a weapon.Casino_Royale said:
Today was a message to the EU as well as the UK.SeanT said:Another thing: this election call was pretty much a total surprise, even to experts. That means May has an excellent poker face.
A plus when it comes to Brexit negotiations.0 -
There is a time for everything, and a season for every activity under the heavens.JackW said:
Except indy referendums & tv debates.0 -
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Laura Kuennsberg sounding very angry on BBC news. I wonder if making all the journalists feel like fools is maybe not a smart tactic?0
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What does Corbyn have to gain from carrying on now to face certain humiliation on June 8th?
One is almost willing him to have a heart attack so that he has to drop out!0 -
BBC have chosen Dewsbury as the first marginal seat to visit. Not a good sign for Labour since they won it in 1987 when losing by 100 seats nationally.0
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Isn't there an automatic review of the FTPA after this election?williamglenn said:
But it's a message she can only send once. She now has five years without being able to use recourse to the people as a weapon.Casino_Royale said:
Today was a message to the EU as well as the UK.SeanT said:Another thing: this election call was pretty much a total surprise, even to experts. That means May has an excellent poker face.
A plus when it comes to Brexit negotiations.0 -
Probably buggered their holiday plans up....ydoethur said:Laura Kuennsberg sounding very angry on BBC news. I wonder if making all the journalists feel like fools is maybe not a smart tactic?
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You could go there if you were really dumb...oh .. now I get you.murali_s said:
Or we can go further, the folk who were stupid enough to vote Conservative in 2015!felix said:
Actually to be fair it is the stupidity of the MPs who nominated him and the thousands of members who voted for him..twice! This is why his departure will solve little.foxinsoxuk said:
The biggest swing will be to DNV.AlastairMeeks said:
Two contradictory trends can be expected:TheWhiteRabbit said:Quite surprised by this. It would be easy for Labour supporters until now to have shied away, only to come back on polling day. The indications, if anything, are the opposite: more voters come out in favour of the Tories.
1) The intensely engaged Labour moderates who have been saying "don't know" will reluctantly return to their party to ensure it is still viable after the election.
2) The intensely unengaged average past Labour voters who have been saying "Labour" will look at the options and decide that they can't vote for Jeremy Corbyn's party. They'll probably mostly abstain.
In my view, 2) will outweigh 1). Labour's poll share will in my view continue to slide. I'm not at all sure what the floor is, if there is a floor.
The stupidity of Jezza will bring about a one party state, for a generation.0 -
LOL...Billy Bunter is pissing himself trying to ask the head of the CBI just suppose if it PM Jeremy Corbyn....0
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That isn't the message.williamglenn said:
But it's a message she can only send once. She now has five years without being able to use recourse to the people as a weapon.Casino_Royale said:
Today was a message to the EU as well as the UK.SeanT said:Another thing: this election call was pretty much a total surprise, even to experts. That means May has an excellent poker face.
A plus when it comes to Brexit negotiations.0 -
@RCS1000
Mr. Robert, I should be obliged if you would let us know ASAP your prediction for the number of LibDem MPs. Last time you predicted the Lib Dems would get at least eleven seats and they managed eight. I missed out on that and I do not want to do so again.
So if you could let us know your lower bound for Lib Dem seats then I can get a bet on the next time I take a bus to the town.0 -
Here is a question...what has changed in the past 2-3 weeks that has bumped up the gap from ~15% to ~20%? Jezza announcing (unpopular) populist policies? A50 actually been triggered?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Last ipsos Mori poll gave the Tories an 11% lead0
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It's not an impossible LibDem gain. It's the most pro-Remain part of Birmingham. Could Hemming go from 10,500 to 13,000 votes? Yes. Will that be enough? Probably not (Jess got 17,000 votes last time). But if it's a truly horrible Labour campaign, then he might just edge it.AndyJS said:John Hemming expecting to stand again for Yardley against Jess Phillips:
""John HemmingVerified account @johnhemming4mp 3h3 hours ago
Replying to @noaxnow
Thank you for that. I expect to be confirmed as candidate for June 8th some time later today."
twitter.com/johnhemming4mp/with_replies"
Read more: http://vote-2012.proboards.com/posts/recent#ixzz4eccwGHaR
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Oh dear, Labour’s floor just got lower.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
In what way is it a message to the EU?Casino_Royale said:
Today was a message to the EU as well as the UK.SeanT said:Another thing: this election call was pretty much a total surprise, even to experts. That means May has an excellent poker face.
A plus when it comes to Brexit negotiations.
The only message I am seeing is that the UK will acquiesce to many EU demands in the forthcoming negotiations. No surprise there as it's the EU who hold all the cards...0 -
There is definite herding around this 21% lead. Very suspicious.0
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Yep. Will be key.ToryJim said:One thing to look at is that clearly May will win the election, so how will she reshuffle her team? Who will she ditch when she has the leeway to? Who will come back in etc. I suspect David Davis is safe but is Boris, will she fire Liz Truss etc. I guess it all depends on size of mandate but it could be a fascinating reshuffle as her first chance to have a completely free hand etc.
I can't imagine she will go back on what she has said already though... So no single market, ECJ etc...
Then again - maybe that was a lie/she will change her mind...0 -
There is a review in 2020. The early election does not change that.ToryJim said:
Isn't there an automatic review of the FTPA after this election?williamglenn said:
But it's a message she can only send once. She now has five years without being able to use recourse to the people as a weapon.Casino_Royale said:
Today was a message to the EU as well as the UK.SeanT said:Another thing: this election call was pretty much a total surprise, even to experts. That means May has an excellent poker face.
A plus when it comes to Brexit negotiations.0 -
New Ipsos-MORI poll has CON 44 LAB 23 LD 12 UKIP 10 from OGH.0
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Young Asian guy on Sky...says he is a centre left Labour supporter, but only way to get rid of Corbyn is to vote for the Tories.
Not sure if I believe that...but that will be certainly impressive if Corbyn drives Tories higher by having people feel that is the only way to ensure Corbyn and his kind are ejected from the Labour Party.0 -
One reason I don't believe it - nothing has changed enough to lead to such a big bump.FrancisUrquhart said:
Here is a question...what has changed in the past 2-3 weeks that has bumped up the gap from ~15% to ~20%? Jezza announcing (unpopular) populist policies? A50 actually been triggered?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
2010 yes - the 2015 ones not so much. But they are still a good way of connecting with the general public who pay less attention to politics than people on here.FrancisUrquhart said:Genuinely....did anything think the debates in 2010 and whatever we want to call the thing in 2015 were any good?
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Let's not forget how utterly pisspoor May is capable of being at PMQs. Clearly the Debate about whether there will be Debates is now part of the rich tapestry of our unwritten constitution but I don't see who has a real appetite for it this time. Not May because incumbents don't, and also see above; not Corbyn's handlers whatever he himself wants; it's awkward for the SNP because they have to disagree both with Con and with Lab on all points; and who is this Fallon guy?FrancisUrquhart said:0 -
That she is very good a true bluffing, and can pull off surprises. Don't think you've worked her out or that you really know what her bottom line is.murali_s said:
In what way is it a message to the EU?Casino_Royale said:
Today was a message to the EU as well as the UK.SeanT said:Another thing: this election call was pretty much a total surprise, even to experts. That means May has an excellent poker face.
A plus when it comes to Brexit negotiations.
The only message I am seeing is that the UK will acquiesce to many EU demands in the forthcoming negotiations. No surprise there as it's the EU who hold all the cards...
You are seeing what you want to see with your second paragraph.0 -
Interesting polling . I wonder how the "shy" factor will play out this time.
Pure conjecture:
- We've peaked with "shy Tories" . The awfulness of Corbyn has given an excuse / alibi for anyone who wants to vote Tory to justify it - in their own heads and publicly
- Are there any shy Corbynites? Perhaps protest voters.0 -
I agree. I still subscribe to the fact it is Easter hols and that often throws things out of whack.kle4 said:
One reason I don't believe it - nothing has changed enough to lead to such a big bump.FrancisUrquhart said:
Here is a question...what has changed in the past 2-3 weeks that has bumped up the gap from ~15% to ~20%? Jezza announcing (unpopular) populist policies? A50 actually been triggered?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Would it be better if they had two policies?malcolmg said:
Tories are stuck with only one policy , anti independence, hated by the majority , seen as nasty evil and cruel to the poor , I doubt SNP will be quaking in their boots. hard to see Scotland voting for perpetual misery of Tory right wing government.chestnut said:
The SNP have very little to gain and a fair bit to lose in Westminster representation with a new election.kle4 said:Curious that the SNP are more split on if this is right or wrong - considering it totally undermines any May argument about not holding an IndyRef, I'd have thought they would all be thrilled.
Unlike the rest of the UK, it's not going to be Brexit that dominates. It could end up as a referendum about another referendum, and the SNP have positioned themeselves as pro-EU, pro-Indy - which is a 30% view. They obviously won't fall back to that, but seem unlikely to emulate their feats of May 2015. Some of their vote is anti-EU and some is pro-union and doesn't want independence. These voters must be wondering whether they were wise to lend the SNP their vote.
Domestically they also have this to contend with:
"Output of the Scottish economy contracted by 0.2% during the fourth quarter of 2016."
If the next figures show a further contraction, Scotland will be in recession, at a time when everywhere else in the UK is exeriencing growth. Slap bang in the middle of an election.
However their policy as it stands isn't anti-independence, it's not hated by the majority, and although it may be seen as you say it clearly isn't seen by the consensus in that way.
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Mr. Jim, FTPA gets reviewed in 2020.0
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Any news yet on polling in the the second round of voting between Macron and Le Pen in Nuneaton ?0
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If the anti Brexiteers could get organised and get behind whoever is the anti Brexit candidate it could turn into an interesting and unpredictable election. Most of the big hitter politicians and captains of industry are still overwhelmingly against.
Things can move in unexpected directions. Nearly everyone I know would vote for whicever candidate was anti Brexit and had the best chance of winning. We just have to convert that into a movement. The polls still have Remainers close to 50%.
From here in france Brexit is seen as plain BONKERS.0 -
One tweak... Make it clear that Ken Clarke is booked as a sub.JackW said:0 -
Davis will stay. Boris too, but only in roles that keep him from being a challenge to her. Many others gone I think. Gove coming back? He has been in rehabilitation mode unlike Osborne?ToryJim said:One thing to look at is that clearly May will win the election, so how will she reshuffle her team? Who will she ditch when she has the leeway to? Who will come back in etc. I suspect David Davis is safe but is Boris, will she fire Liz Truss etc. I guess it all depends on size of mandate but it could be a fascinating reshuffle as her first chance to have a completely free hand etc.
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Some religious headgear for women that covers hair, neck and upper chest so that nearby men don't get aroused is considered uncontroversial and unobjectionable, but other headgear with identical characteristics and function gets people wanting to ban it:
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The irony of the current French presidential election scenarios vis a vis 'bonkers' must have passed you by... like so much else I'm afraid.Roger said:If the anti Brexiteers could get organised and get behind whoever is the anti Brexit candidate it could turn into an interesting and unpredictable election. Most of the big hitter politicians and captains of industry are still overwhelmingly against.
Things can move in unexpected directions. Nearly everyone I know would vote for whicever candidate was anti Brexit and had the best chance of winning. We just have to convert that into a movement. The polls still have Remainers close to 50%.
From here in france Brexit is seen as plain BONKERS.0 -
Love a bit of Ecclesiastes. Vanity, vanity, all is vanity.Theuniondivvie said:
There is a time for everything, and a season for every activity under the heavens.JackW said:
Except indy referendums & tv debates.0 -
Not a fan of this election decision though. I see it as a way to derail Brexit.0
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OGH has said the Ipsos figures are wrong on Twitter.0
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Hoping Lynton gets the barnacles off the boat again and starts with grammar schools. It's an unnecessary distraction from the real issues facing the education system in the nation. Manifesto commitments to T-Levels would be brilliant and a big commitment to apprenticeships is needed as well. We have to get our young people ready for Brexit.0
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Wikipedia reckons Yardley was 60% leave. It reckons Hall Green was most remain with 66%rcs1000 said:
It's not an impossible LibDem gain. It's the most pro-Remain part of Birmingham. Could Hemming go from 10,500 to 13,000 votes? Yes. Will that be enough? Probably not (Jess got 17,000 votes last time). But if it's a truly horrible Labour campaign, then he might just edge it.AndyJS said:John Hemming expecting to stand again for Yardley against Jess Phillips:
""John HemmingVerified account @johnhemming4mp 3h3 hours ago
Replying to @noaxnow
Thank you for that. I expect to be confirmed as candidate for June 8th some time later today."
twitter.com/johnhemming4mp/with_replies"
Read more: http://vote-2012.proboards.com/posts/recent#ixzz4eccwGHaR0 -
Over time all the things that were supposed to be benefits of Brexit are being whittled away as we realise that the present arrangements are superior. When there is nothing left, that will be the time to make the case that there's no point in Brexit at all.SeanT said:
There are no anti-Brexit parties. Even the Lib Dems have just changed their tune. All they want now is to "stay in the single market".Roger said:If the anti Brexiteers could get organised and get behind whoever is the anti Brexit candidate it could turn into an interesting and unpredictable election. Most of the big hitter politicians and captains of industry are still overwhelmingly against.
Things can move in unexpected directions. Nearly everyone I know would vote for whicever candidate was anti Brexit and had the best chance of winning. We just have to convert that into a movement. The polls still have Remainers close to 50%.
From here in france Brexit is seen as plain BONKERS.
So you have to form a NEW party, in the next week or two, choose your candidates, publish your manifesto, then win a majority at the election.
Doddle.0 -
The most interesting aspect of the election will be Nick Timothy and Fiona Hill's manifesto.0
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1 in 4 of about 7/10, so actually just about 17% of the adult population. Not very high really. Give the nation a little credit!DavidL said:0 -
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You're right, I misread this article http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/eu-referendum-results-your-area-11536368GarethoftheVale2 said:
Wikipedia reckons Yardley was 60% leave. It reckons Hall Green was most remain with 66%rcs1000 said:
It's not an impossible LibDem gain. It's the most pro-Remain part of Birmingham. Could Hemming go from 10,500 to 13,000 votes? Yes. Will that be enough? Probably not (Jess got 17,000 votes last time). But if it's a truly horrible Labour campaign, then he might just edge it.AndyJS said:John Hemming expecting to stand again for Yardley against Jess Phillips:
""John HemmingVerified account @johnhemming4mp 3h3 hours ago
Replying to @noaxnow
Thank you for that. I expect to be confirmed as candidate for June 8th some time later today."
twitter.com/johnhemming4mp/with_replies"
Read more: http://vote-2012.proboards.com/posts/recent#ixzz4eccwGHaR0 -
I think May just did this to end Osborne - maybe, just maybe, he could try and justify being a half time MP and a newspaper editor, but he cannot do his new editor job and spend time campaigning in his constituency. He'll have to choose.0
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A lot of misinformation floating around today. I saw a Tweet that looked reliable saying that Liz McInnes was standing down in Heywood & Middleton but I think it was wrong.0
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Will Solihull go Lib Dem again?0
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Who wants to ban the non face covering one?Cyan said:Some religious headgear for women that covers hair, neck and upper chest so that nearby men don't get aroused is considered uncontroversial and unobjectionable, but other headgear with identical characteristics and function gets people wanting to ban it:
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Mr. Cyan, I'd guess those wanting a hijab ban are in a very small minority. Niqabs and burkhas would probably be rather higher.
Speaking of those taking a risk for power, I wrote a quick blog on three historical examples who tried it with varying degrees of success:
http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2017/04/grasping-power.html0 -
But they don't vote. That over 65 lead for the Tories referred to earlier is mind blowing.felix said:0 -
Decision time for GO, probably earlier than he anticipated, but as a motive for calling a snap election is plain nonsense.kle4 said:I think May just did this to end Osborne - maybe, just maybe, he could try and justify being a half time MP and a newspaper editor, but he cannot do his new editor job and spend time campaigning in his constituency. He'll have to choose.
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I thought there would be no value in the Constituency odds compared to 2015 but if people are going to posit crazy shit like LDs lose Orkney & Shetland then maybe there will be value.rcs1000 said:If anyone saw my comment on the last thread: take anything better than 1-30 on the LibDems to retain Orkney & Shetland. The seats saw a big swing to the LDs last year in Holyrood, with them getting 67.4% in both constituencies.
I see no reason why we won't see a similar sized swing to them in June.
@rcs1000 What do you think of the Lib Dems seat bands on Ladbrokes. Covering 11-30 seems like the play to me.0 -
Not at all likely.Gallowgate said:Will Solihull go Lib Dem again?
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Only if it hasn't been junked firstMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Jim, FTPA gets reviewed in 2020.
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Looks like Waugh story for the Huff Post is a non-story. 'Trigger Ballots' are essentially already a part of the system:
What’s the current system then?
At the moment, for every general election, local parties vote for their candidate in what is called a “trigger ballot” – a watered down version of mandatory reselection. This is a system by which each separate branch of a local party, and affiliated organisations, get a simple “yes/no” vote to nominate the candidate. Branches represent the membership of the constituency party (local parties are divided into branches, usually based on the ward boundaries for councillors). Affiliated organisations are groups like trade unions, the Fabians, BAME Labour, Co-op party, etc.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/staggers/2016/08/qa-what-deselection-and-what-does-it-mean-labour-mps0
