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By 49% to 17%, the public thinks that Theresa May is right to seek an early general election https://t.co/Lei8VydF1t pic.twitter.com/z9A2oep41X
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1) The intensely engaged Labour moderates who have been saying "don't know" will reluctantly return to their party to ensure it is still viable after the election.
2) The intensely unengaged average past Labour voters who have been saying "Labour" will look at the options and decide that they can't vote for Jeremy Corbyn's party. They'll probably mostly abstain.
In my view, 2) will outweigh 1). Labour's poll share will in my view continue to slide. I'm not at all sure what the floor is, if there is a floor.
Labour:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jHPOzQzk9Qo
Mrs May choice for Tories - Kill 'Em All by Metallica
British politics had a mad, vibrancy about it, which is not seen much elsewhere.
Maybe Australia.
i will sell the left leg of my first born.
Computer says....Nooooooooooo.
Mr. Vale2, depends which direction the theoretical polling error is in.
The stupidity of Jezza will bring about a one party state, for a generation.
For Mrs May "Good girl gone bad" by Rhianna
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/07/12/public-split-early-election/
Good times.
I see no reason why we won't see a similar sized swing to them in June.
A mandate for soft and floppy Brexit awaits...
Move over God, Stephen Dorrell has spoken.
The posh boys always seemed incapable of doing anything without telling or signalling to everyman and his dog what was coming up.....
Macron 24 (=)
Le Pen 23 (-1)
Fillon 18.5 (+1.5)
Melenchon 18 (=)
http://www.rtl.fr/actu/politique/sondage-presidentielle-macron-le-pen-creuse-ecart-fillon-devant-melenchon-7788189207
There are, but Corbyn will make sure none of them happen.
LibDems sub 18.5 seats @ 3.85. Should be closer to evens.
UKIP to not win a seat @ 1.14.
Election to go ahead: lay @ 1.03. (Has to be a better than 33-1 chance that it gets delayed by a week due to FPTP issues or a requirement to do a one line bill.)
I’m sure Bercow’s ego will try and string it out for longer tho….
Brexit no matter: 36
Brexit with good deal: 25
Brexit approved 2nd referendum: 6
No Brexit: 15
The definitive 'wet' Tory letter.
Mr. T, assuming Corbyn walks.
Here's a list:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Kingdom_MPs_with_the_shortest_service
Poor Thomas Higgins, an MP for 0 days!
"In the current case, however, it seems that the Act really has changed only the choreography, not the underlying pattern of power. We see yet again – as so often – that the UK has a fundamentally political constitution: one in which the politics, rather than the law, matters most."
https://constitution-unit.com/2017/04/18/the-fixed-term-parliaments-act-and-the-snap-election/
I suspect it's mainly down to just general competence, they know the Tories provide a more stable better run government than Corbyn would and feel safer. Also old enough some of them to remember the old harder left Labour and of course Jezbollah's past comments and the IRA activity especially in the 70's-90's.
The group that are the most likely demographic to vote see him as a huge turn off, that's fatal.
No way she called Lynton from the top of Mount Snowdon yesterday and went fancy another go at this election jiggery pokery.
"If you fancy a 16% return in just over eight months, this might be the bet for you"....
I really won't be getting anything done in the first week of June then.
May: +23
Corbyn: -48
Fallon: -18 (48% DK)
She'd still win...
The scarier thought is what if Abbott's talk is actually right?! Not suggesting it is, but can you imagine the surprise and dismay?
No political party should be able to torpedo debates.
Dimbleby is a fool
The shortest ever term of any MP (at least since 1900,) being zero, was that of one Thomas Higgins in 1906, who died in between the close of polls and the declaration, and was declared to have been elected posthumously.