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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » GE2017 – the first polling
By 49% to 17%, the public thinks that Theresa May is right to seek an early general election https://t.co/Lei8VydF1t pic.twitter.com/z9A2oep41X
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First like TORIES!0
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Quite surprised by this. It would be easy for Labour supporters until now to have shied away, only to come back on polling day. The indications, if anything, are the opposite: more voters come out in favour of the Tories.0
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Expected for a first poll - can this level of support be sustained? Maybe....0
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Shame Rod has such problematic view on needless issues, his view would be interesting.0
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Two contradictory trends can be expected:TheWhiteRabbit said:Quite surprised by this. It would be easy for Labour supporters until now to have shied away, only to come back on polling day. The indications, if anything, are the opposite: more voters come out in favour of the Tories.
1) The intensely engaged Labour moderates who have been saying "don't know" will reluctantly return to their party to ensure it is still viable after the election.
2) The intensely unengaged average past Labour voters who have been saying "Labour" will look at the options and decide that they can't vote for Jeremy Corbyn's party. They'll probably mostly abstain.
In my view, 2) will outweigh 1). Labour's poll share will in my view continue to slide. I'm not at all sure what the floor is, if there is a floor.0 -
Is anyone keeping a list of MPs who are not standing again?0
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Mr. Root (FPT), campaign theme songs is a good idea.
Labour:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jHPOzQzk9Qo0 -
Labour - Death of a Party by Blur
Mrs May choice for Tories - Kill 'Em All by Metallica0 -
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Overwhelming endorsement of May's position. Clearly the public enjoy a good election night!0
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Doesn't look like the "May is a liar for saying she wouldn't call an election" message is cutting through.0
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Nevermind! Stick to your guns Jezza!0
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Wondering what foreigners, with their boring tightly scheduled elections, make of all this.
British politics had a mad, vibrancy about it, which is not seen much elsewhere.
Maybe Australia.0 -
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Tic Mic....cough cough....21st Century Socialism sweeping the OAP homes....0
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The worrying thing for Lab is that even if there is a massive polling error (let's say it is actually Con 41, Lab 30) the Cons still increase their majority0
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I'd like to see Rod and Plato (along with her pussies) back for the next seven weeks,,, It's all part of the PB general election experience (this will be my third on here)TheWhiteRabbit said:Shame Rod has such problematic view on needless issues, his view would be interesting.
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It's good, isn't it! One of the many reasons I dislike the FTPA with an irrational passion.Jonathan said:Wondering what foreigners, with their boring tightly scheduled elections, make of all this.
British politics had a mad, vibrancy about it, which is not seen much elsewhere.
Maybe Australia.0 -
I think Rod's model is probably broken, as nowhere would it expect Tory leads of 20+ points and among the old farts who actually vote in droves it is like 80 points.GIN1138 said:
I'd like to see Rod and Plato (along with her pussies) back for the next seven weeks,,, It's all part of the PB general election experience (this will be my third on here)TheWhiteRabbit said:Shame Rod has such problematic view on needless issues, his view would be interesting.
Computer says....Nooooooooooo.0 -
Mr. Gin, seconded.
Mr. Vale2, depends which direction the theoretical polling error is in.0 -
The biggest swing will be to DNV.AlastairMeeks said:
Two contradictory trends can be expected:TheWhiteRabbit said:Quite surprised by this. It would be easy for Labour supporters until now to have shied away, only to come back on polling day. The indications, if anything, are the opposite: more voters come out in favour of the Tories.
1) The intensely engaged Labour moderates who have been saying "don't know" will reluctantly return to their party to ensure it is still viable after the election.
2) The intensely unengaged average past Labour voters who have been saying "Labour" will look at the options and decide that they can't vote for Jeremy Corbyn's party. They'll probably mostly abstain.
In my view, 2) will outweigh 1). Labour's poll share will in my view continue to slide. I'm not at all sure what the floor is, if there is a floor.
The stupidity of Jezza will bring about a one party state, for a generation.0 -
One for Corbyn for agreeing to GE2017 - Sheryl Crow's "My Favourite Mistake"
For Mrs May "Good girl gone bad" by Rhianna
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It was evenly split when YouGov asked last July
http://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/07/12/public-split-early-election/0 -
Plymouth Argyle promoted and a GE election to look forward to.
Good times.0 -
I'd be interested to see that list too.AlastairMeeks said:Is anyone keeping a list of MPs who are not standing again?
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It already has done. I have been complaining about it for weeks (months maybe)foxinsoxuk said:The stupidity of Jezza will bring about a one party state, for a generation.
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If anyone saw my comment on the last thread: take anything better than 1-30 on the LibDems to retain Orkney & Shetland. The seats saw a big swing to the LDs last year in Holyrood, with them getting 67.4% in both constituencies.
I see no reason why we won't see a similar sized swing to them in June.0 -
That is a seriously scary statistic for Labour. I had no idea the Tory lead with the oldies was, comparitively, so small back then compared to now.williamglenn said:0 -
yes, could be interesting for him, Nicky Morgan and Alan Duncan, all being pro-remain neighbours. All look pretty safe.Scott_P said:
A mandate for soft and floppy Brexit awaits...0 -
Mrs C, you're not the only one complaining. Not even a lefty, but the whole point of democracy is a real choice, not a choice between so-so and deranged communist.0
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Order Order started one earlier.AlastairMeeks said:Is anyone keeping a list of MPs who are not standing again?
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I've been quite busy with actual elections of late but this mornings announcement by May probably one of the bigger surprises of recent history. I hate to be the pessimistic type but I think whilst the Conservatives will win pretty comfortably I'm not certain it will be an annihilation type result. I just think there are plenty of ways this could go wrong.0
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The Boomers want their glory days in 1957 again before they pop their clogs. Only the Brexit party can deliverkle4 said:
That is a seriously scary statistic for Labour. I had no idea the Tory lead with the oldies was, comparitively, so small back then compared to now.williamglenn said:
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My thoughts exactly.SeanT said:Another thing: this election call was pretty much a total surprise, even to experts. That means May has an excellent poker face.
A plus when it comes to Brexit negotiations.
The posh boys always seemed incapable of doing anything without telling or signalling to everyman and his dog what was coming up.....0 -
Does a new Speaker need voting in or does Bercow just carry on?rottenborough said:
Order Order started one earlier.AlastairMeeks said:Is anyone keeping a list of MPs who are not standing again?
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I think there is, but I think the two trends you identify will be the case. Even if they don't view it as their fault if it happens, the Labour moderates don't want to participate by proxy in the annihilation of the brand, they will try to minimise the damage. But that 2 though. [anecdote alert] Just spoke with a 60+ person who said 'I'm a Labour man, but who could vote for them at the moment? The MPs don't even trust the leader' (Note, they are not a Corbyn fan).AlastairMeeks said:
Two contradictory trends can be expected:TheWhiteRabbit said:Quite surprised by this. It would be easy for Labour supporters until now to have shied away, only to come back on polling day. The indications, if anything, are the opposite: more voters come out in favour of the Tories.
1) The intensely engaged Labour moderates who have been saying "don't know" will reluctantly return to their party to ensure it is still viable after the election.
2) The intensely unengaged average past Labour voters who have been saying "Labour" will look at the options and decide that they can't vote for Jeremy Corbyn's party. They'll probably mostly abstain.
In my view, 2) will outweigh 1). Labour's poll share will in my view continue to slide. I'm not at all sure what the floor is, if there is a floor.
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In light of these tweets, Liverpool Wavertree where two Labour candidates will be standing should be added to the surprise fallers!0
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Kantar Sofres
Macron 24 (=)
Le Pen 23 (-1)
Fillon 18.5 (+1.5)
Melenchon 18 (=)
http://www.rtl.fr/actu/politique/sondage-presidentielle-macron-le-pen-creuse-ecart-fillon-devant-melenchon-7788189207
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It works for me!Mortimer said:Ditto. Sign us up for the EUARMY, Euro, fully integrated one Europe state. Sod federalism - just go the whole hog.
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"I just think there are plenty of ways this could go wrong."ToryJim said:I've been quite busy with actual elections of late but this mornings announcement by May probably one of the bigger surprises of recent history. I hate to be the pessimistic type but I think whilst the Conservatives will win pretty comfortably I'm not certain it will be an annihilation type result. I just think there are plenty of ways this could go wrong.
There are, but Corbyn will make sure none of them happen.0 -
Curious that the SNP are more split on if this is right or wrong - considering it totally undermines any May argument about not holding an IndyRef, I'd have thought they would all be thrilled.0
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Some value bets on Betfair right now, despite big spreads.
LibDems sub 18.5 seats @ 3.85. Should be closer to evens.
UKIP to not win a seat @ 1.14.
Election to go ahead: lay @ 1.03. (Has to be a better than 33-1 chance that it gets delayed by a week due to FPTP issues or a requirement to do a one line bill.)0 -
Tomorrow’s PM debate will just last 90 minutes, assuming there are no statements or urgent questions it will start after PMQs at 12.30pm and MPs will vote at 2pm.
I’m sure Bercow’s ego will try and string it out for longer tho….0 -
Q7. Which one of the following do you think would be the strongest Brexit policy to campaign on? Base: All respondentsScott_P said:
Brexit no matter: 36
Brexit with good deal: 25
Brexit approved 2nd referendum: 6
No Brexit: 150 -
There'll be an election. The question is whether he'll be opposed.SquareRoot said:
Does a new Speaker need voting in or does Bercow just carry on?rottenborough said:
Order Order started one earlier.AlastairMeeks said:Is anyone keeping a list of MPs who are not standing again?
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Also, they'd have to go wrong extremely quickly. There'd be many more ways for things to go wrong over a three-year rather than seven-week timescale.rottenborough said:
"I just think there are plenty of ways this could go wrong."ToryJim said:I've been quite busy with actual elections of late but this mornings announcement by May probably one of the bigger surprises of recent history. I hate to be the pessimistic type but I think whilst the Conservatives will win pretty comfortably I'm not certain it will be an annihilation type result. I just think there are plenty of ways this could go wrong.
There are, but Corbyn will make sure none of them happen.0 -
Only because either she lied directly to our faces or she changes her mind very quickly even though the facts have barely altered in a short space of time. The first might win a round of negotiations but then face consequences, the latter could be an asset in terms of flexibility at least.SeanT said:Another thing: this election call was pretty much a total surprise, even to experts. That means May has an excellent poker face.
A plus when it comes to Brexit negotiations.0 -
Morris_Dancer said:
Mrs C, you're not the only one complaining. Not even a lefty, but the whole point of democracy is a real choice, not a choice between so-so and deranged communist.
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If the Tories win back Richmond Park, Sarah Olney will have been an MP for only 7 months. When was the last time an MP served for such a short term?0
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Scott_P said:
The definitive 'wet' Tory letter.0 -
Actually to be fair it is the stupidity of the MPs who nominated him and the thousands of members who voted for him..twice! This is why his departure will solve little.foxinsoxuk said:
The biggest swing will be to DNV.AlastairMeeks said:
Two contradictory trends can be expected:TheWhiteRabbit said:Quite surprised by this. It would be easy for Labour supporters until now to have shied away, only to come back on polling day. The indications, if anything, are the opposite: more voters come out in favour of the Tories.
1) The intensely engaged Labour moderates who have been saying "don't know" will reluctantly return to their party to ensure it is still viable after the election.
2) The intensely unengaged average past Labour voters who have been saying "Labour" will look at the options and decide that they can't vote for Jeremy Corbyn's party. They'll probably mostly abstain.
In my view, 2) will outweigh 1). Labour's poll share will in my view continue to slide. I'm not at all sure what the floor is, if there is a floor.
The stupidity of Jezza will bring about a one party state, for a generation.0 -
Mr. G, that's a slight spreading of the polling. Such a result would be alright.
Mr. T, assuming Corbyn walks.0 -
To answer your question, looks like Nicol Stephen in 1991, Kincardine and Deeside.not_on_fire said:If the Tories win back Richmond Park, Sarah Olney will have been an MP for only 7 months. When was the last time an MP served for such a short term?
Here's a list:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Kingdom_MPs_with_the_shortest_service
Poor Thomas Higgins, an MP for 0 days!0 -
Further explanation of why FTPA is bollx.RobD said:
It does warm the cockles that we can still have snap elections even with the dreadful FTPA.SeanT said:Another thing: this election call was pretty much a total surprise, even to experts. That means May has an excellent poker face.
A plus when it comes to Brexit negotiations.
"In the current case, however, it seems that the Act really has changed only the choreography, not the underlying pattern of power. We see yet again – as so often – that the UK has a fundamentally political constitution: one in which the politics, rather than the law, matters most."
https://constitution-unit.com/2017/04/18/the-fixed-term-parliaments-act-and-the-snap-election/0 -
It is - and those are the folks nailed on to vote.kle4 said:
That is a seriously scary statistic for Labour. I had no idea the Tory lead with the oldies was, comparitively, so small back then compared to now.williamglenn said:0 -
So many factors going into that which would be fascinating to get to the bottom of it.kle4 said:
That is a seriously scary statistic for Labour. I had no idea the Tory lead with the oldies was, comparitively, so small back then compared to now.williamglenn said:
I suspect it's mainly down to just general competence, they know the Tories provide a more stable better run government than Corbyn would and feel safer. Also old enough some of them to remember the old harder left Labour and of course Jezbollah's past comments and the IRA activity especially in the 70's-90's.
The group that are the most likely demographic to vote see him as a huge turn off, that's fatal.0 -
I think he should be - they're near enough at open war with him, the Tories, so may as well make it official, then get a Labour MP in as Speaker.RobD said:
There'll be an election. The question is whether he'll be opposed.SquareRoot said:
Does a new Speaker need voting in or does Bercow just carry on?rottenborough said:
Order Order started one earlier.AlastairMeeks said:Is anyone keeping a list of MPs who are not standing again?
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If you think this was a surprise, just wait until she announces the second referendum.SeanT said:Another thing: this election call was pretty much a total surprise, even to experts. That means May has an excellent poker face.
A plus when it comes to Brexit negotiations.0 -
And Alfred Dobbs - won an election, died in a car accident the next day, talk about highs and lows.RobD said:
To answer your question, looks like Nicol Stephen in 1991, Kincardine and Deeside.not_on_fire said:If the Tories win back Richmond Park, Sarah Olney will have been an MP for only 7 months. When was the last time an MP served for such a short term?
Here's a list:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Kingdom_MPs_with_the_shortest_service
Poor Thomas Higgins, an MP for 0 days!0 -
I'm waiting for the day she goes all Gorbachev on the precious union.edmundintokyo said:
If you think this was a surprise, just wait until she announces the second referendum.SeanT said:Another thing: this election call was pretty much a total surprise, even to experts. That means May has an excellent poker face.
A plus when it comes to Brexit negotiations.0 -
I believe, from one or two here, that the correct phrase is, lying bitch. The internet warrior is strong.Carolus_Rex said:Doesn't look like the "May is a liar for saying she wouldn't call an election" message is cutting through.
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Given Crosby and Co are already on board, it has to be presumed this has been in the works for a while. I am guessing formulating when to go and polling what is the best approach to maximize gains.SeanT said:Another thing: this election call was pretty much a total surprise, even to experts. That means May has an excellent poker face.
A plus when it comes to Brexit negotiations.
No way she called Lynton from the top of Mount Snowdon yesterday and went fancy another go at this election jiggery pokery.0 -
So baseline worst case Labour share is 12%... Labour still has some way to potentially fall...0
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It was to make them harder, not impossible, sometimes they are needed.RobD said:
It does warm the cockles that we can still have snap elections even with the dreadful FTPA.SeanT said:Another thing: this election call was pretty much a total surprise, even to experts. That means May has an excellent poker face.
A plus when it comes to Brexit negotiations.
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Dimbleby opines that other parties may "empty chair" the Cons in a TV debate.0
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Theresa May only called the election to go "Ha!" at this recent pb.com thread:SquareRoot said:
Does a new Speaker need voting in or does Bercow just carry on?rottenborough said:
Order Order started one earlier.AlastairMeeks said:Is anyone keeping a list of MPs who are not standing again?
"If you fancy a 16% return in just over eight months, this might be the bet for you"....0 -
Just partook in a very comprehensive YouGov poll on this election.0
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May 30 will mark the arrival of House of Cards season 5...
I really won't be getting anything done in the first week of June then.
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Net "good job"
May: +23
Corbyn: -48
Fallon: -18 (48% DK)0 -
Just wait until the public really get to know Jezza...CarlottaVance said:Net "good job"
May: +23
Corbyn: -48
Fallon: -18 (48% DK)0 -
So basically i can lay Labour @1.15 to win Hartlepool plus a few other shots in a couple of seats were UKIP are second in the Northern rust belt? Harlepool is were UKIP still have a strong local organisation.rcs1000 said:Some value bets on Betfair right now, despite big spreads.
LibDems sub 18.5 seats @ 3.85. Should be closer to evens.
UKIP to not win a seat @ 1.14.
Election to go ahead: lay @ 1.03. (Has to be a better than 33-1 chance that it gets delayed by a week due to FPTP issues or a requirement to do a one line bill.)0 -
geoffw said:
Dimbleby opines that other parties may "empty chair" the Cons in a TV debate.
She'd still win...
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The UKIP one is 1.4 w Lads!rcs1000 said:Some value bets on Betfair right now, despite big spreads.
LibDems sub 18.5 seats @ 3.85. Should be closer to evens.
UKIP to not win a seat @ 1.14.
Election to go ahead: lay @ 1.03. (Has to be a better than 33-1 chance that it gets delayed by a week due to FPTP issues or a requirement to do a one line bill.)0 -
*May pencils in a Manifesto pledge to end the BBC Licence Fee.....*geoffw said:Dimbleby opines that other parties may "empty chair" the Cons in a TV debate.
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Can anyone recall how early/late SPIN put up the total seats spreads at GE2015?0
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Canada is good too - all their parties seem to wildly swing each election and they had plenty of short term minority governments until recentlyJonathan said:Wondering what foreigners, with their boring tightly scheduled elections, make of all this.
British politics had a mad, vibrancy about it, which is not seen much elsewhere.
Maybe Australia.0 -
It is a huge consolation that the cabal that had taken over the Labour Party are going to get their comeuppance. It almost makes the looming colossal defeat something to look forward to. Abbott shadow Home Secretary. It's not even funny.0
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Taking Alastair Meeks metaphor earlier today maybe the Tory theme should be the Wurzles and "I've got a brand new combine harvester and I'll give you the key. "0
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With 3 year elections, I believe, and party leaders who get knifed but don't stay down and knife their stabbers back, I think they might go too far in the opposite direction.Jonathan said:Wondering what foreigners, with their boring tightly scheduled elections, make of all this.
British politics had a mad, vibrancy about it, which is not seen much elsewhere.
Maybe Australia.0 -
Or we can go further, the folk who were stupid enough to vote Conservative in 2015!felix said:
Actually to be fair it is the stupidity of the MPs who nominated him and the thousands of members who voted for him..twice! This is why his departure will solve little.foxinsoxuk said:
The biggest swing will be to DNV.AlastairMeeks said:
Two contradictory trends can be expected:TheWhiteRabbit said:Quite surprised by this. It would be easy for Labour supporters until now to have shied away, only to come back on polling day. The indications, if anything, are the opposite: more voters come out in favour of the Tories.
1) The intensely engaged Labour moderates who have been saying "don't know" will reluctantly return to their party to ensure it is still viable after the election.
2) The intensely unengaged average past Labour voters who have been saying "Labour" will look at the options and decide that they can't vote for Jeremy Corbyn's party. They'll probably mostly abstain.
In my view, 2) will outweigh 1). Labour's poll share will in my view continue to slide. I'm not at all sure what the floor is, if there is a floor.
The stupidity of Jezza will bring about a one party state, for a generation.0 -
Take it!isam said:
The UKIP one is 1.4 w Lads!rcs1000 said:Some value bets on Betfair right now, despite big spreads.
LibDems sub 18.5 seats @ 3.85. Should be closer to evens.
UKIP to not win a seat @ 1.14.
Election to go ahead: lay @ 1.03. (Has to be a better than 33-1 chance that it gets delayed by a week due to FPTP issues or a requirement to do a one line bill.)0 -
We can hopeRoger said:It is a huge consolation that the cabal that had taken over the Labour Party are going to get their comeuppance. It almost makes the looming colossal defeat something to look forward to. Abbott shadow Home Secretary. It's not even funny.
The scarier thought is what if Abbott's talk is actually right?! Not suggesting it is, but can you imagine the surprise and dismay?0 -
Wouldn't surprise me if she told them to Foxtrot Oscar...I mean they messaged Sky's Billy Bunter (calling him exactly that) telling him to do one.MarqueeMark said:
*May pencils in a Manifesto pledge to end the BBC Licence Fee.....*geoffw said:Dimbleby opines that other parties may "empty chair" the Cons in a TV debate.
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If she doesn't think they are worth attending, why would she, even as a joke, feel the need to be vindictive for empty chairing her?MarqueeMark said:
*May pencils in a Manifesto pledge to end the BBC Licence Fee.....*geoffw said:Dimbleby opines that other parties may "empty chair" the Cons in a TV debate.
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There are no shortage of briefer terms than that, largely as a result of death or defeat at a subsequent general election. The all-seeing (if not always entirely reliable) eye of Wikipedia suggests that the shortest terms served in recent times were those of two by-election winners: Bobby Sands (died after 25 days in 1981) and Michael Carr (died after 57 days in 1990.)not_on_fire said:If the Tories win back Richmond Park, Sarah Olney will have been an MP for only 7 months. When was the last time an MP served for such a short term?
The shortest ever term of any MP (at least since 1900,) being zero, was that of one Thomas Higgins in 1906, who died in between the close of polls and the declaration, and was declared to have been elected posthumously.0 -
Given that that is effectively urging voters to vote against the Tories, shouldn't he be kicked out of the party?David_Evershed said:0
