politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The canvas data that proved to be spot on in Richmond suggests
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I think that is misreading things. Macron actually offers a significant break with the past, both politically (the first president from outside the party system since de Gaulle) and economically (he advocates reforms that the economic establishment thinks is long overdue). Question is, whether the latter is actually change that the French voters are ready for.SeanT said:
lol, I hadn't seen that poll. Yes, that is unideal for Fillon.williamglenn said:
The most recent poll has him losing 70-30 to Macron. That's going to be almost impossible to overcome. Macron isn't a weak candidate.SeanT said:
I think it will be him versus either Macron or Le Pen.SouthamObserver said:
Where does he get his R2 votes from?SeanT said:I reckon Fillon is going to win this, now. Remarkable, seeing as he was an inch away from bowing out entirely, a few weeks back.
He'll get all the rightwing votes versus Macron, and all the anti-Le Pen votes versus Le Pen.
I still can't quite believe the French will go for Macron, who is more of the same only he worked for big banks as well, when this is a nation crying out for change (or so we are told), a nation ready to give the Establishment a kicking.
When it's Fillon v Macron, Fillon is the change candidate.
But I guess one should never underestimate the French ability to shrug, and grudgingly accept the status quo, after a lot of whingeing.0 -
Melenchon also comfortably beats Fillon in hypothetical R2 match-ups. That gives a strong clue as to how transfer-(un)friendly Fillon is.williamglenn said:
The most recent poll has him losing 70-30 to Macron. That's going to be almost impossible to overcome. Macron isn't a weak candidate.SeanT said:
I think it will be him versus either Macron or Le Pen.SouthamObserver said:
Where does he get his R2 votes from?SeanT said:I reckon Fillon is going to win this, now. Remarkable, seeing as he was an inch away from bowing out entirely, a few weeks back.
He'll get all the rightwing votes versus Macron, and all the anti-Le Pen votes versus Le Pen.
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It also hangs on how much Galloway retains some appeal to his target constituencyThomasNashe said:
Split of anti-Lab vote between Tory and UKIP really helped in Stoke. The fact that all the anti-Corbyn vote can coalesce around one candidate means that Gorton is different. Still a big ask, but I think Mike is right to say a LD victory is now possible.David_Evershed said:HYUFD said:
I doubt the LDs focus leaflets in Gorton can really overcome a 20% margin in the way they could a 3% margin but we will seeMarkSenior said:
That was with 5 days to go in Richmond , the Gorton figures were with 3 weeks to go . May or may not be significant .HYUFD said:LD canvass data in Richmond Park actually had it Zac 46% LDs 43% so still significantly closer than they have it in Gorton plus the LDs held Richmon Park from 1997 to 2010 unlike Gorton
https://mobile.twitter.com/msmithsonpb/status/802627791292243968
Labour managed to get out their vote in Stoke so will be looking to do the same in Gorton.0 -
HYUFD; as I recall abiout 3 weeks before Richmond the opinion poll had Goldsmith nearly 30% in front! It is not Focus leaflets that determine the outcome, it is people perceptions. Apparaently most people know it is a two horse contest Labour/Lib Dem, they will then judge accordingly.0
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I don't think it is comfortable at all. I think what happens in that fortnight favours Fillon.SouthamObserver said:
Melenchon also comfortably beats Fillon in hypothetical R2 match-ups. That gives a strong clue as to how transfer-(un)friendly Fillon is.williamglenn said:
The most recent poll has him losing 70-30 to Macron. That's going to be almost impossible to overcome. Macron isn't a weak candidate.SeanT said:
I think it will be him versus either Macron or Le Pen.SouthamObserver said:
Where does he get his R2 votes from?SeanT said:I reckon Fillon is going to win this, now. Remarkable, seeing as he was an inch away from bowing out entirely, a few weeks back.
He'll get all the rightwing votes versus Macron, and all the anti-Le Pen votes versus Le Pen.0 -
Fillon has come in to 4.4, above Le Pen. How fickle the betting market is! Mostly British money, I reckon, reacting to his probably statistically insignificant 1% rise in today's poll. Invested by people who may be unaware of the story of how he didn't return the free suits.SouthamObserver said:
There does seem to be little difference between the two, except Fillon is more of the French elite and more willing to break the post-war French social contract, while Le Pen actively defends it. The choice is a horrible one. I'd expect most centre and left voters to stay at hom, but for MLP to pick up at least as many Melenchon/Hamon transfers as Fillon gets from Macron.Danny565 said:
Will left-wing and working-class voters really vote for Fillon, even against Le Pen?SeanT said:
I think it will be him versus either Macron or Le Pen.SouthamObserver said:
Where does he get his R2 votes from?SeanT said:I reckon Fillon is going to win this, now. Remarkable, seeing as he was an inch away from bowing out entirely, a few weeks back.
He'll get all the rightwing votes versus Macron, and all the anti-Le Pen votes versus Le Pen.
I'm not sure I could bring myself to do it.
Admittedly Fillon says he'll "ignore" Schengen, but there is a big difference between Fillon the working-week extender and public sector "rationaliser" and Le Pen. Interestingly he has proposed referendums, though, including on immigration. The change to plebiscitary democracy will be big and it will be likely to change the face not just of France but of Europe. Fancy Bear will love it. So will Cambridge Analytica.
PS The people who will vote for Hamon in R1 and Le Pen in R2 must be unlike any Hamon supporters I've ever met.0 -
Wrong. Tory supporters who want to see Labour humiliated tneed Corbyn to lead Labour into the election.TheKrakenAwakes said:Lib Dems are in the fortunate position in Gorton of having the potential support of Lib Dem voters, Labour voters who want to get rid of Corbyn, as well as Tory voters who want to see Labour humiliated.
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Or whether they would find such piddly little change offered by a pro-German politician sufficient when far bigger change is on offer.IanB2 said:
I think that is misreading things. Macron actually offers a significant break with the past, both politically (the first president from outside the party system since de Gaulle) and economically (he advocates reforms that the economic establishment thinks is long overdue). Question is, whether the latter is actually change that the French voters are ready for.SeanT said:
lol, I hadn't seen that poll. Yes, that is unideal for Fillon.williamglenn said:
The most recent poll has him losing 70-30 to Macron. That's going to be almost impossible to overcome. Macron isn't a weak candidate.SeanT said:
I think it will be him versus either Macron or Le Pen.SouthamObserver said:
Where does he get his R2 votes from?SeanT said:I reckon Fillon is going to win this, now. Remarkable, seeing as he was an inch away from bowing out entirely, a few weeks back.
He'll get all the rightwing votes versus Macron, and all the anti-Le Pen votes versus Le Pen.
I still can't quite believe the French will go for Macron, who is more of the same only he worked for big banks as well, when this is a nation crying out for change (or so we are told), a nation ready to give the Establishment a kicking.
When it's Fillon v Macron, Fillon is the change candidate.
But I guess one should never underestimate the French ability to shrug, and grudgingly accept the status quo, after a lot of whingeing.0 -
I don't understand how 31-51 is "struggling". Even if we believe these canvas returns then Labour is expected to get an outright majority of votes with the next closest party about as far behind as Labour is according to Yougov.0
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That's overly Machiavellian. Some Tories would take the opportunity to humiliate Labour (including Corbyn) today over a hypothetical general election humiliation in three and a bit years time.MarqueeMark said:
Wrong. Tory supporters who want to see Labour humiliated tneed Corbyn to lead Labour into the election.TheKrakenAwakes said:Lib Dems are in the fortunate position in Gorton of having the potential support of Lib Dem voters, Labour voters who want to get rid of Corbyn, as well as Tory voters who want to see Labour humiliated.
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Are the rumours true that as part of the Brexit negotiations David Davis now wants the EU Parliament to move from Brussels to London?0
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Yes, EU agencies belong in the EU.SouthamObserver said:
How will it concentrate minds? The EU will merely say EU agencies must be in the EU and subject to EU law.SeanT said:FPT London is quite right to fight for those EU Agencies (even though we are highly unlikely to retain them). It's part of the bargaining process.
I imagine HMG will say "OK, you want to take these Agencies from us? Then give us 20% of the assets of all the other EU Agencies, across Europe, which the UK has helped to fund and staff since the UK acceded in 1973."
It's a perfectly fair request: in a divorce you divide the assets. It will be fiendishly complicated and messy and it is possible - just possible - an accord could be reached whereby the UK kept, say, the EMA in return for not making a claim on the other agencies - much easier and cleaner for all.
And even if the EU refuses (as they very probably will) it will concentrate minds in Brussels. The UK has claims on the EU, as well as vice versa.
The big issue here isn't the jobs, at least not for the UK. Our share of the workforce between the EBA/EMA is under 100 headcount, whereas the best part of 1k EU citizens will have to relocate from London to wherever the EU plant these functions.
The real issues are the leases.
The EBA has a £1.8m (€2.1m) p.a twelve year rental lease on it's Canary Wharf property which it can break from halfway through - the end of 2020.
Our share of the lease would be about £300k p.a - theirs is £1.5m.
The EMA lease however is a more substantial £10.5m (c.€13m) p.a on a 25 year lease with no breaks between 2015 and 2040. It's a €300m commitment, and the EU's share of the bill is €250m or so over the duration of the lease.
This is the type of thing they will horse trade - we pull out of leases based over there in return for cutting them loose from their commitments over here.
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The PVV also fell off in the last two weeks of the Dutch Election.SeanT said:
What is driving Le Pen's decline? Presumably the rise of Melenchon. With similar economic views and no nazi past.kyf_100 said:
The other possibility here is that Macron's vote is the softest, with Le Pen you have a lot of far-right types certain to come out and with Fillon you have older and more conservative voters who, as we know, vote.BudG said:In case anyone missed it durint the thread change-over, FPT:
Opinium daily rolling poll
Macron 22 (=)
Le Pen 22 (-1)
Fillon 21 (+1)
Melenchon 18 (+1)
https://www.lesechos.fr/elections/presidentielle-2017/0211739192332-sondage-le-suivi-quotidien-de-la-presidentielle-2062937.php
This is a pretty significant poll, as Opinionway have tended to be one of the more favourable polls for Le Pen. I said last week that she was not a 1/6 shot to make the final two and this poll bears that out. I think she is gonna miss out!
I'm now thinking it may be a Le Pen / Fillon run off and have adjusted my book accordingly.0 -
A bit of Devils Advocacy:
At this time of year, 2 weeks before a set of Local Government elections, it is normal for political party's to be playing expectation management, i.e. talking down how many wins they may get, so that on the night whatever happens can be proclaimed as a success. However this year does that change for the conservatives? if they exaggerate the expected lab losses, then Coybin and his cronies can clam whatever they do get as a success, which will help him stay in power and be bad for the long term of the labour party.
On that note, who else thinks lab will loses 100 seats or more in each of England, Scotland and wales?0 -
Reality vs. Protest.rcs1000 said:
The PVV also fell off in the last two weeks of the Dutch Election.SeanT said:
What is driving Le Pen's decline? Presumably the rise of Melenchon. With similar economic views and no nazi past.kyf_100 said:
The other possibility here is that Macron's vote is the softest, with Le Pen you have a lot of far-right types certain to come out and with Fillon you have older and more conservative voters who, as we know, vote.BudG said:In case anyone missed it durint the thread change-over, FPT:
Opinium daily rolling poll
Macron 22 (=)
Le Pen 22 (-1)
Fillon 21 (+1)
Melenchon 18 (+1)
https://www.lesechos.fr/elections/presidentielle-2017/0211739192332-sondage-le-suivi-quotidien-de-la-presidentielle-2062937.php
This is a pretty significant poll, as Opinionway have tended to be one of the more favourable polls for Le Pen. I said last week that she was not a 1/6 shot to make the final two and this poll bears that out. I think she is gonna miss out!
I'm now thinking it may be a Le Pen / Fillon run off and have adjusted my book accordingly.
It's one thing to say "FU all, I am voting Le Pen", it's quite another to want to be governed by Le Pen.
Party Machines make a difference.
Fillon has support in depth, a machine proven to win.0 -
+1 As I said earlier that is how I'd vote in Gorton - to keep Corbyn in charge. Ironically it might also be in the interests of the LD too in the medium term. Of course they cannot see it.MarqueeMark said:
Wrong. Tory supporters who want to see Labour humiliated tneed Corbyn to lead Labour into the election.TheKrakenAwakes said:Lib Dems are in the fortunate position in Gorton of having the potential support of Lib Dem voters, Labour voters who want to get rid of Corbyn, as well as Tory voters who want to see Labour humiliated.
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I have backed Macron/Fillon
So, the odds implied by my book are:
Macron v Fillon evens (a winner)
Macron v Le Pen Le Pen 5/1 (about right)
Fillon v Le Pen Le Pen 7/2 (about right)
Macron v Melenchon Melenchon between 7/2 and 3/1 (about right)
Fillon v Melenchon Melenchon 7/2 (a loser)
Melenchon v Le Pen is a big loss.0 -
Trudeau took the centre left Liberals from 3rd place to a landslide win and still has a comfortable poll lead, instead of attacking him the hapless UK left might try and learn something from him!FrancisUrquhart said:Oh dear....the left falling out of love with Justin AirHead...
Stop swooning over Justin Trudeau. The man is a disaster for the planet
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/apr/17/stop-swooning-justin-trudeau-man-disaster-planet0 -
It is not just the "statistically insignificant" 1% rise for him in today's poll. The reaction is also partially explained by Le Pen's 1% fall (or is that "statistically insignificant as well? ) and the fact that she has fallen from a high of 27% to 22% in less than a month.Cyan said:
Fillon has come in to 4.4, above Le Pen. How fickle the betting market is! Mostly British money, I reckon, reacting to his probably statistically insignificant 1% rise in today's poll. Invested by people who may be unaware of the story of how he didn't return the free suits.SouthamObserver said:
There does seem to be little difference between the two, except Fillon is more of the French elite and more willing to break the post-war French social contract, while Le Pen actively defends it. The choice is a horrible one. I'd expect most centre and left voters to stay at hom, but for MLP to pick up at least as many Melenchon/Hamon transfers as Fillon gets from Macron.Danny565 said:
Will left-wing and working-class voters really vote for Fillon, even against Le Pen?SeanT said:
I think it will be him versus either Macron or Le Pen.SouthamObserver said:
Where does he get his R2 votes from?SeanT said:I reckon Fillon is going to win this, now. Remarkable, seeing as he was an inch away from bowing out entirely, a few weeks back.
He'll get all the rightwing votes versus Macron, and all the anti-Le Pen votes versus Le Pen.
I'm not sure I could bring myself to do it.
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They still came second and it was the centre right who came first, if repeated in France that would mean a Fillon v Le Pen runoffrcs1000 said:
The PVV also fell off in the last two weeks of the Dutch Election.SeanT said:
What is driving Le Pen's decline? Presumably the rise of Melenchon. With similar economic views and no nazi past.kyf_100 said:
The other possibility here is that Macron's vote is the softest, with Le Pen you have a lot of far-right types certain to come out and with Fillon you have older and more conservative voters who, as we know, vote.BudG said:In case anyone missed it durint the thread change-over, FPT:
Opinium daily rolling poll
Macron 22 (=)
Le Pen 22 (-1)
Fillon 21 (+1)
Melenchon 18 (+1)
https://www.lesechos.fr/elections/presidentielle-2017/0211739192332-sondage-le-suivi-quotidien-de-la-presidentielle-2062937.php
This is a pretty significant poll, as Opinionway have tended to be one of the more favourable polls for Le Pen. I said last week that she was not a 1/6 shot to make the final two and this poll bears that out. I think she is gonna miss out!
I'm now thinking it may be a Le Pen / Fillon run off and have adjusted my book accordingly.0 -
I think that's right. My theory - which is derided by some - is that people quite like the policies of the insurgent parties (like the FN or the PVV or the Five Star), but don't trust them to run the country (yet). The result is that they see a fair drop off as you approach polling day.Jonathan said:
Reality vs. Protest.rcs1000 said:
The PVV also fell off in the last two weeks of the Dutch Election.SeanT said:
What is driving Le Pen's decline? Presumably the rise of Melenchon. With similar economic views and no nazi past.kyf_100 said:
The other possibility here is that Macron's vote is the softest, with Le Pen you have a lot of far-right types certain to come out and with Fillon you have older and more conservative voters who, as we know, vote.BudG said:In case anyone missed it durint the thread change-over, FPT:
Opinium daily rolling poll
Macron 22 (=)
Le Pen 22 (-1)
Fillon 21 (+1)
Melenchon 18 (+1)
https://www.lesechos.fr/elections/presidentielle-2017/0211739192332-sondage-le-suivi-quotidien-de-la-presidentielle-2062937.php
This is a pretty significant poll, as Opinionway have tended to be one of the more favourable polls for Le Pen. I said last week that she was not a 1/6 shot to make the final two and this poll bears that out. I think she is gonna miss out!
I'm now thinking it may be a Le Pen / Fillon run off and have adjusted my book accordingly.
It's one thing to say "FU all, I am voting Le Pen", it's quite another to want to be governed by Le Pen.
Party Machines make a difference.
Fillon has support in depth, a machine proven to win.0 -
We are talking here about LD poll findings, which even then still have them 20% behind in Gorton when they were 3% behind in Richmond Parktheakes said:HYUFD; as I recall abiout 3 weeks before Richmond the opinion poll had Goldsmith nearly 30% in front! It is not Focus leaflets that determine the outcome, it is people perceptions. Apparaently most people know it is a two horse contest Labour/Lib Dem, they will then judge accordingly.
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Melenchon isn't an insurgent then?rcs1000 said:
I think that's right. My theory - which is derided by some - is that people quite like the policies of the insurgent parties (like the FN or the PVV or the Five Star), but don't trust them to run the country (yet). The result is that they see a fair drop off as you approach polling day.Jonathan said:
Reality vs. Protest.rcs1000 said:
The PVV also fell off in the last two weeks of the Dutch Election.SeanT said:
What is driving Le Pen's decline? Presumably the rise of Melenchon. With similar economic views and no nazi past.kyf_100 said:
The other possibility here is that Macron's vote is the softest, with Le Pen you have a lot of far-right types certain to come out and with Fillon you have older and more conservative voters who, as we know, vote.BudG said:In case anyone missed it durint the thread change-over, FPT:
Opinium daily rolling poll
Macron 22 (=)
Le Pen 22 (-1)
Fillon 21 (+1)
Melenchon 18 (+1)
https://www.lesechos.fr/elections/presidentielle-2017/0211739192332-sondage-le-suivi-quotidien-de-la-presidentielle-2062937.php
This is a pretty significant poll, as Opinionway have tended to be one of the more favourable polls for Le Pen. I said last week that she was not a 1/6 shot to make the final two and this poll bears that out. I think she is gonna miss out!
I'm now thinking it may be a Le Pen / Fillon run off and have adjusted my book accordingly.
It's one thing to say "FU all, I am voting Le Pen", it's quite another to want to be governed by Le Pen.
Party Machines make a difference.
Fillon has support in depth, a machine proven to win.0 -
The problem with Clegg's FTPA (and, specifically, Osborne's five year amendment to it) is that there are two conflicting things that the good of the country requires: a functioning opposition and hard Leftism to be trounced at an election since the lesson of 1983 has apparently been forgotten.MarqueeMark said:
Wrong. Tory supporters who want to see Labour humiliated tneed Corbyn to lead Labour into the election.TheKrakenAwakes said:Lib Dems are in the fortunate position in Gorton of having the potential support of Lib Dem voters, Labour voters who want to get rid of Corbyn, as well as Tory voters who want to see Labour humiliated.
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The beginning of a stampede by prominent Tories into supporting the Labour candidate....?felix said:
+1 As I said earlier that is how I'd vote in Gorton - to keep Corbyn in charge. Ironically it might also be in the interests of the LD too in the medium term. Of course they cannot see it.MarqueeMark said:
Wrong. Tory supporters who want to see Labour humiliated tneed Corbyn to lead Labour into the election.TheKrakenAwakes said:Lib Dems are in the fortunate position in Gorton of having the potential support of Lib Dem voters, Labour voters who want to get rid of Corbyn, as well as Tory voters who want to see Labour humiliated.
Seems fair enough. Corbyn does seem to have got into the habit of leading his Labour MPs into backing Mrs May`s Tories in Parliament.0 -
The slight problem with that theory in a French context is that the first round is a pretty free hit teenager style with the option of acting like an adult in the second round. Maybe she just isn't a very good campaigner.rcs1000 said:
I think that's right. My theory - which is derided by some - is that people quite like the policies of the insurgent parties (like the FN or the PVV or the Five Star), but don't trust them to run the country (yet). The result is that they see a fair drop off as you approach polling day.Jonathan said:
Reality vs. Protest.rcs1000 said:
The PVV also fell off in the last two weeks of the Dutch Election.SeanT said:
What is driving Le Pen's decline? Presumably the rise of Melenchon. With similar economic views and no nazi past.kyf_100 said:
The other possibility here is that Macron's vote is the softest, with Le Pen you have a lot of far-right types certain to come out and with Fillon you have older and more conservative voters who, as we know, vote.BudG said:In case anyone missed it durint the thread change-over, FPT:
Opinium daily rolling poll
Macron 22 (=)
Le Pen 22 (-1)
Fillon 21 (+1)
Melenchon 18 (+1)
https://www.lesechos.fr/elections/presidentielle-2017/0211739192332-sondage-le-suivi-quotidien-de-la-presidentielle-2062937.php
This is a pretty significant poll, as Opinionway have tended to be one of the more favourable polls for Le Pen. I said last week that she was not a 1/6 shot to make the final two and this poll bears that out. I think she is gonna miss out!
I'm now thinking it may be a Le Pen / Fillon run off and have adjusted my book accordingly.
It's one thing to say "FU all, I am voting Le Pen", it's quite another to want to be governed by Le Pen.
Party Machines make a difference.
Fillon has support in depth, a machine proven to win.0 -
Good afternoon, everyone.0
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The final 2012 first round presidential polls had Marine Le Pen on 14% to 17%, she got 17.9%DavidL said:
The slight problem with that theory in a French context is that the first round is a pretty free hit teenager style with the option of acting like an adult in the second round. Maybe she just isn't a very good campaigner.rcs1000 said:
I think that's right. My theory - which is derided by some - is that people quite like the policies of the insurgent parties (like the FN or the PVV or the Five Star), but don't trust them to run the country (yet). The result is that they see a fair drop off as you approach polling day.Jonathan said:
Reality vs. Protest.rcs1000 said:
The PVV also fell off in the last two weeks of the Dutch Election.SeanT said:
What is driving Le Pen's decline? Presumably the rise of Melenchon. With similar economic views and no nazi past.kyf_100 said:
The other possibility here is that Macron's vote is the softest, with Le Pen you have a lot of far-right types certain to come out and with Fillon you have older and more conservative voters who, as we know, vote.BudG said:In case anyone missed it durint the thread change-over, FPT:
Opinium daily rolling poll
Macron 22 (=)
Le Pen 22 (-1)
Fillon 21 (+1)
Melenchon 18 (+1)
https://www.lesechos.fr/elections/presidentielle-2017/0211739192332-sondage-le-suivi-quotidien-de-la-presidentielle-2062937.php
This is a pretty significant poll, as Opinionway have tended to be one of the more favourable polls for Le Pen. I said last week that she was not a 1/6 shot to make the final two and this poll bears that out. I think she is gonna miss out!
I'm now thinking it may be a Le Pen / Fillon run off and have adjusted my book accordingly.
It's one thing to say "FU all, I am voting Le Pen", it's quite another to want to be governed by Le Pen.
Party Machines make a difference.
Fillon has support in depth, a machine proven to win.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_20120 -
Only to be expected, I suppose, if you will elect as party leader a compulsive rebel against party policies.PClipp said:
The beginning of a stampede by prominent Tories into supporting the Labour candidate....?felix said:
+1 As I said earlier that is how I'd vote in Gorton - to keep Corbyn in charge. Ironically it might also be in the interests of the LD too in the medium term. Of course they cannot see it.MarqueeMark said:
Wrong. Tory supporters who want to see Labour humiliated tneed Corbyn to lead Labour into the election.TheKrakenAwakes said:Lib Dems are in the fortunate position in Gorton of having the potential support of Lib Dem voters, Labour voters who want to get rid of Corbyn, as well as Tory voters who want to see Labour humiliated.
Seems fair enough. Corbyn does seem to have got into the habit of leading his Labour MPs into backing Mrs May`s Tories in Parliament.
Good afternoon, everyone.0 -
I think the "teenager/kick the establishment" vote is being split with Melenchon, increasingly to her disadvantage. I am starting to think she is not going to make the second round at all. Outperforming her polling by 0.9% is unlikely to be enough.HYUFD said:
The final 2012 first round presidential polls had Marine Le Pen on 14% to 17%, she got 17.9%DavidL said:
The slight problem with that theory in a French context is that the first round is a pretty free hit teenager style with the option of acting like an adult in the second round. Maybe she just isn't a very good campaigner.rcs1000 said:
I think that's right. My theory - which is derided by some - is that people quite like the policies of the insurgent parties (like the FN or the PVV or the Five Star), but don't trust them to run the country (yet). The result is that they see a fair drop off as you approach polling day.Jonathan said:
Reality vs. Protest.rcs1000 said:
The PVV also fell off in the last two weeks of the Dutch Election.SeanT said:
What is driving Le Pen's decline? Presumably the rise of Melenchon. With similar economic views and no nazi past.kyf_100 said:
The other possibility here is that Macron's vote is the softest, with Le Pen you have a lot of far-right types certain to come out and with Fillon you have older and more conservative voters who, as we know, vote.BudG said:In case anyone missed it durint the thread change-over, FPT:
Opinium daily rolling poll
Macron 22 (=)
Le Pen 22 (-1)
Fillon 21 (+1)
Melenchon 18 (+1)
https://www.lesechos.fr/elections/presidentielle-2017/0211739192332-sondage-le-suivi-quotidien-de-la-presidentielle-2062937.php
This is a pretty significant poll, as Opinionway have tended to be one of the more favourable polls for Le Pen. I said last week that she was not a 1/6 shot to make the final two and this poll bears that out. I think she is gonna miss out!
I'm now thinking it may be a Le Pen / Fillon run off and have adjusted my book accordingly.
It's one thing to say "FU all, I am voting Le Pen", it's quite another to want to be governed by Le Pen.
Party Machines make a difference.
Fillon has support in depth, a machine proven to win.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_20120 -
Who says? Anyhow it's not theirs to lose. A near miss serves everyone's interests, and that is still as good as it is looking right now.felix said:
+1 As I said earlier that is how I'd vote in Gorton - to keep Corbyn in charge. Ironically it might also be in the interests of the LD too in the medium term. Of course they cannot see it.MarqueeMark said:
Wrong. Tory supporters who want to see Labour humiliated tneed Corbyn to lead Labour into the election.TheKrakenAwakes said:Lib Dems are in the fortunate position in Gorton of having the potential support of Lib Dem voters, Labour voters who want to get rid of Corbyn, as well as Tory voters who want to see Labour humiliated.
0 -
Well, not from 2.5 weeks, but from a month out in Richmond Park, it was found to be 56% Zac, 29% Olney.Essexit said:Assuming the canvassing data is correct, what examples are there - by-election or otherwise - of a 20% deficit being overturned in two and a half weeks?
The LDs may be on course for an impressive increase in vote share and a clear second, but no more than that.
http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/richmond-park-election-voting-key-issue-results/0 -
Deleted duplicate0
-
Bermondsey?Andy_Cooke said:
Well, not from 2.5 weeks, but from a month out in Richmond Park, it was found to be 56% Zac, 29% Olney.Essexit said:Assuming the canvassing data is correct, what examples are there - by-election or otherwise - of a 20% deficit being overturned in two and a half weeks?
The LDs may be on course for an impressive increase in vote share and a clear second, but no more than that.
http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/richmond-park-election-voting-key-issue-results/
"Bermondsey was one of the first by-elections to be extensively polled. The polls showed, at first, that the Labour vote was substantially down on the 1979 election figures, but that none of the rival candidates were particularly close."
(Wikipedia)0 -
What garbage, how can you exit the EU but want their agenies based in London. Only a nutjob would even consider that is remotely likely. You will have your Brexit Agency and that will be it, Billy no mates.SeanT said:FPT London is quite right to fight for those EU Agencies (even though we are highly unlikely to retain them). It's part of the bargaining process.
I imagine HMG will say "OK, you want to take these Agencies from us? Then give us 20% of the assets of all the other EU Agencies, across Europe, which the UK has helped to fund and staff since the UK acceded in 1973."
It's a perfectly fair request: in a divorce you divide the assets. It will be fiendishly complicated and messy and it is possible - just possible - an accord could be reached whereby the UK kept, say, the EMA in return for not making a claim on the other agencies - much easier and cleaner for all.
And even if the EU refuses (as they very probably will) it will concentrate minds in Brussels. The UK has claims on the EU, as well as vice versa.0 -
I don't think the Lib Dem's strategy is meant to win the election. It's intended to make them relevant to thenatio so conversation - that's enough for nowIanB2 said:
I don't see a better strategy that offers a quicker or easier exit route from the last of those? Not wanting to start from here doesn't work.felix said:
Yes - and I also wonder if any of their strategists [BigRich said:
I wonder to what extent, that the LibDems having a having a By-election that seems to be just with in reach of winning, will divert LibDem activists, away form LG elections and make the gains in numbers of councillors less than they would over wise be?David_Evershed said:In the Manchester Gorton by-election, the Lib Dems would much prefer a previous Labour voter switching to Lib Dem than a former Conservative voter since it not only increases the Lib Dem vote but reduces the Labour vote.
A Labour to Lib Dem switcher is wort twice a Conservative to Lib Dem switcher.
Lib Dem canvassers should concentrate on Labour voters.
} have thought through the likely effect on their polling if Labour get rid of JC and become more centrist. Truth is they are locked in a strategy that gives them a few good headlines while keeping them very firmly as a distant third party.0 -
Possibly.rottenborough said:
Bermondsey?Andy_Cooke said:
Well, not from 2.5 weeks, but from a month out in Richmond Park, it was found to be 56% Zac, 29% Olney.Essexit said:Assuming the canvassing data is correct, what examples are there - by-election or otherwise - of a 20% deficit being overturned in two and a half weeks?
The LDs may be on course for an impressive increase in vote share and a clear second, but no more than that.
http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/richmond-park-election-voting-key-issue-results/
"Bermondsey was one of the first by-elections to be extensively polled. The polls showed, at first, that the Labour vote was substantially down on the 1979 election figures, but that none of the rival candidates were particularly close."
(Wikipedia)
The Richmond Park poll stuck in the memory because when it was discussed on here, quite a few commentators responded by calling the contest for Zac immediately and dismissing the Lib Dems chances.0 -
No. Melenchon does worse with higher turnout over 35s than his poll average Le Pen about the same and Le Pen did 0.9% better than her top range polling. In 2012 both Sarkozy and Le Pen outperformed their final poll average, Hollande did about the same, Bayrou and Melenchon worseDavidL said:
I think the "teenager/kick the establishment" vote is being split with Melenchon, increasingly to her disadvantage. I am starting to think she is not going to make the second round at all. Outperforming her polling by 0.9% is unlikely to be enough.HYUFD said:
The final 2012 first round presidential polls had Marine Le Pen on 14% to 17%, she got 17.9%DavidL said:
The slight problem with that theory in a French context is that the first round is a pretty free hit teenager style with the option of acting like an adult in the second round. Maybe she just isn't a very good campaigner.rcs1000 said:
I think that's right. My theory - which is derided by some - is that people quite like the policies of the insurgent parties (like the FN or the PVV or the Five Star), but don't trust them to run the country (yet). The result is that they see a fair drop off as you approach polling day.Jonathan said:
Reality vs. Protest.rcs1000 said:
The PVV also fell off in the last two weeks of the Dutch Election.SeanT said:
What is driving Le Pen's decline? Presumably the rise of Melenchon. With similar economic views and no nazi past.kyf_100 said:
The other possibility here is that Macron's vote is the softest, with Le Pen you have a lot of far-right types certain to come out and with Fillon you have older and more conservative voters who, as we know, vote.BudG said:In case anyone missed it durint the thread change-over, FPT:
Opinium daily rolling poll
Macron 22 (=)
Le Pen 22 (-1)
Fillon 21 (+1)
Melenchon 18 (+1)
https://www.lesechos.fr/elections/presidentielle-2017/0211739192332-sondage-le-suivi-quotidien-de-la-presidentielle-2062937.php
This is a pretty significant poll, as Opinionway have tended to be one of the more favourable polls for Le Pen. I said last week that she was not a 1/6 shot to make the final two and this poll bears that out. I think she is gonna miss out!
I'm now thinking it may be a Le Pen / Fillon run off and have adjusted my book accordingly.
It's one thing to say "FU all, I am voting Le Pen", it's quite another to want to be governed by Le Pen.
Party Machines make a difference.
Fillon has support in depth, a machine proven to win.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_20120 -
I think you are right. Most of Melenchon's increase in support has come at the expense of Hamon, but not so much over the past week or so. A fair chunk of his recent increase appears to be coming from Le Pen.DavidL said:
I think the "teenager/kick the establishment" vote is being split with Melenchon, increasingly to her disadvantage. I am starting to think she is not going to make the second round at all. Outperforming her polling by 0.9% is unlikely to be enough.HYUFD said:
The final 2012 first round presidential polls had Marine Le Pen on 14% to 17%, she got 17.9%DavidL said:
The slight problem with that theory in a French context is that the first round is a pretty free hit teenager style with the option of acting like an adult in the second round. Maybe she just isn't a very good campaigner.rcs1000 said:
I think that's right. My theory - which is derided by some - is that people quite like the policies of the insurgent parties (like the FN or the PVV or the Five Star), but don't trust them to run the country (yet). The result is that they see a fair drop off as you approach polling day.Jonathan said:
Reality vs. Protest.rcs1000 said:
The PVV also fell off in the last two weeks of the Dutch Election.SeanT said:
What is driving Le Pen's decline? Presumably the rise of Melenchon. With similar economic views and no nazi past.kyf_100 said:
The other possibility here is that Macron's vote is the softest, with Le Pen you have a lot of far-right types certain to come out and with Fillon you have older and more conservative voters who, as we know, vote.BudG said:In case anyone missed it durint the thread change-over, FPT:
Opinium daily rolling poll
Macron 22 (=)
Le Pen 22 (-1)
Fillon 21 (+1)
Melenchon 18 (+1)
https://www.lesechos.fr/elections/presidentielle-2017/0211739192332-sondage-le-suivi-quotidien-de-la-presidentielle-2062937.php
This is a pretty significant poll, as Opinionway have tended to be one of the more favourable polls for Le Pen. I said last week that she was not a 1/6 shot to make the final two and this poll bears that out. I think she is gonna miss out!
I'm now thinking it may be a Le Pen / Fillon run off and have adjusted my book accordingly.
It's one thing to say "FU all, I am voting Le Pen", it's quite another to want to be governed by Le Pen.
Party Machines make a difference.
Fillon has support in depth, a machine proven to win.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2012
0 -
But Bayrou and Melenchon did worse because they were so far adrift and a vote for them would be wasted. Not this time in the case of Melenchon. It will be Hamon's vote that will be regard as a wasted vote and that is likeliest to go to MelenchonHYUFD said:
No. Melenchon does worse with higher turnout over 35s than his poll average Le Pen about the same and Le Pen did 0.9% better than her top range polling. In 2012 both Sarkozy and Le Pen outperformed their final poll average, Hollande did about the same, Bayrou and Melenchon worseDavidL said:
I think the "teenager/kick the establishment" vote is being split with Melenchon, increasingly to her disadvantage. I am starting to think she is not going to make the second round at all. Outperforming her polling by 0.9% is unlikely to be enough.HYUFD said:
The final 2012 first round presidential polls had Marine Le Pen on 14% to 17%, she got 17.9%DavidL said:
The slight problem with that theory in a French context is that the first round is a pretty free hit teenager style with the option of acting like an adult in the second round. Maybe she just isn't a very good campaigner.rcs1000 said:
I think that's right. My theory - which is derided by some - is that people quite like the policies of the insurgent parties (like the FN or the PVV or the Five Star), but don't trust them to run the country (yet). The result is that they see a fair drop off as you approach polling day.Jonathan said:
Reality vs. Protest.rcs1000 said:
The PVV also fell off in the last two weeks of the Dutch Election.SeanT said:
What is driving Le Pen's decline? Presumably the rise of Melenchon. With similar economic views and no nazi past.kyf_100 said:BudG said:In case anyone missed it durint the thread change-over, FPT:
Opinium daily rolling poll
Macron 22 (=)
Le Pen 22 (-1)
Fillon 21 (+1)
Melenchon 18 (+1)
https://www.lesechos.fr/elections/presidentielle-2017/0211739192332-sondage-le-suivi-quotidien-de-la-presidentielle-2062937.php
I'm now thinking it may be a Le Pen / Fillon run off and have adjusted my book accordingly.
It's one thing to say "FU all, I am voting Le Pen", it's quite another to want to be governed by Le Pen.
Party Machines make a difference.
Fillon has support in depth, a machine proven to win.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_20120 -
Yes - but the danger is that they over-egg the pudding - win and Labour finally come to their senses in time to recover before the next GE.Charles said:
I don't think the Lib Dem's strategy is meant to win the election. It's intended to make them relevant to thenatio so conversation - that's enough for nowIanB2 said:
I don't see a better strategy that offers a quicker or easier exit route from the last of those? Not wanting to start from here doesn't work.felix said:
Yes - and I also wonder if any of their strategists [BigRich said:
I wonder to what extent, that the LibDems having a having a By-election that seems to be just with in reach of winning, will divert LibDem activists, away form LG elections and make the gains in numbers of councillors less than they would over wise be?David_Evershed said:In the Manchester Gorton by-election, the Lib Dems would much prefer a previous Labour voter switching to Lib Dem than a former Conservative voter since it not only increases the Lib Dem vote but reduces the Labour vote.
A Labour to Lib Dem switcher is wort twice a Conservative to Lib Dem switcher.
Lib Dem canvassers should concentrate on Labour voters. } have thought through the likely effect on their polling if Labour get rid of JC and become more centrist. Truth is they are locked in a strategy that gives them a few good headlines while keeping them very firmly as a distant third party.0 -
Interestingly the Scottish LibDems aren't putting any candidates up in 8 out of the 32 councils - see page 2 of the PDF
http://www.electionsscotland.info/downloads/file/343/scottish_local_government_elections_2017_-_summary_of_candidates_nominated0 -
Hamon's vote is already down to its core and in 2012 Le Pen too was polling 10% behind Hollande and SarkozyBudG said:
But Bayrou and Melenchon did worse because they were so far adrift and a vote for them would be wasted. Not this time in the case of Melenchon. It will be Hamon's vote that will be regard as a wasted vote and that is likeliest to go to MelenchonHYUFD said:
No. Melenchon does worse with higher turnout over 35s than his poll average Le Pen about the same and Le Pen did 0.9% better than her top range polling. In 2012 both Sarkozy and Le Pen outperformed their final poll average, Hollande did about the same, Bayrou and Melenchon worseDavidL said:
I think the "teenager/kick the establishment" vote is being split with Melenchon, increasingly to her disadvantage. I am starting to think she is not going to make the second round at all. Outperforming her polling by 0.9% is unlikely to be enough.HYUFD said:
The final 2012 first round presidential polls had Marine Le Pen on 14% to 17%, she got 17.9%DavidL said:
The slight problem with that theory in a French context is that the first round is a pretty free hit teenager style with the option of acting like an adult in the second round. Maybe she just isn't a very good campaigner.rcs1000 said:
I think that's right. My theory - which is derided by some - is that people quite like the policies of the insurgent parties (like the FN or the PVV or the Five Star), but don't trust them to run the country (yet). The result is that they see a fair drop off as you approach polling day.Jonathan said:
Reality vs. Protest.rcs1000 said:
The PVV also fell off in the last two weeks of the Dutch Election.SeanT said:
What is driving Le Pen's decline? Presumably the rise of Melenchon. With similar economic views and no nazi past.kyf_100 said:BudG said:In case anyone missed it durint the thread change-over, FPT:
Opinium daily rolling poll
Macron 22 (=)
Le Pen 22 (-1)
Fillon 21 (+1)
Melenchon 18 (+1)
https://www.lesechos.fr/elections/presidentielle-2017/0211739192332-sondage-le-suivi-quotidien-de-la-presidentielle-2062937.php
I'm now thinking it may be a Le Pen / Fillon run off and have adjusted my book accordingly.
It's one thing to say "FU all, I am voting Le Pen", it's quite another to want to be governed by Le Pen.
Party Machines make a difference.
Fillon has support in depth, a machine proven to win.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_20120 -
Why would the owner of the building agree to that?chestnut said:
Yes, EU agencies belong in the EU.SouthamObserver said:
How will it concentrate minds? The EU will merely say EU agencies must be in the EU and subject to EU law.SeanT said:FPT London is quite right to fight for those EU Agencies (even though we are highly unlikely to retain them). It's part of the bargaining process.
I imagine HMG will say "OK, you want to take these Agencies from us? Then give us 20% of the assets of all the other EU Agencies, across Europe, which the UK has helped to fund and staff since the UK acceded in 1973."
It's a perfectly fair request: in a divorce you divide the assets. It will be fiendishly complicated and messy and it is possible - just possible - an accord could be reached whereby the UK kept, say, the EMA in return for not making a claim on the other agencies - much easier and cleaner for all.
And even if the EU refuses (as they very probably will) it will concentrate minds in Brussels. The UK has claims on the EU, as well as vice versa.
The big issue here isn't the jobs, at least not for the UK. Our share of the workforce between the EBA/EMA is under 100 headcount, whereas the best part of 1k EU citizens will have to relocate from London to wherever the EU plant these functions.
The real issues are the leases.
The EBA has a £1.8m (€2.1m) p.a twelve year rental lease on it's Canary Wharf property which it can break from halfway through - the end of 2020.
Our share of the lease would be about £300k p.a - theirs is £1.5m.
The EMA lease however is a more substantial £10.5m (c.€13m) p.a on a 25 year lease with no breaks between 2015 and 2040. It's a €300m commitment, and the EU's share of the bill is €250m or so over the duration of the lease.
This is the type of thing they will horse trade - we pull out of leases based over there in return for cutting them loose from their commitments over here.0 -
UK will pay it as part of Brexit bill.Charles said:
Why would the owner of the building agree to that?chestnut said:
Yes, EU agencies belong in the EU.SouthamObserver said:
How will it concentrate minds? The EU will merely say EU agencies must be in the EU and subject to EU law.SeanT said:FPT London is quite right to fight for those EU Agencies (even though we are highly unlikely to retain them). It's part of the bargaining process.
I imagine HMG will say "OK, you want to take these Agencies from us? Then give us 20% of the assets of all the other EU Agencies, across Europe, which the UK has helped to fund and staff since the UK acceded in 1973."
It's a perfectly fair request: in a divorce you divide the assets. It will be fiendishly complicated and messy and it is possible - just possible - an accord could be reached whereby the UK kept, say, the EMA in return for not making a claim on the other agencies - much easier and cleaner for all.
And even if the EU refuses (as they very probably will) it will concentrate minds in Brussels. The UK has claims on the EU, as well as vice versa.
The big issue here isn't the jobs, at least not for the UK. Our share of the workforce between the EBA/EMA is under 100 headcount, whereas the best part of 1k EU citizens will have to relocate from London to wherever the EU plant these functions.
The real issues are the leases.
The EBA has a £1.8m (€2.1m) p.a twelve year rental lease on it's Canary Wharf property which it can break from halfway through - the end of 2020.
Our share of the lease would be about £300k p.a - theirs is £1.5m.
The EMA lease however is a more substantial £10.5m (c.€13m) p.a on a 25 year lease with no breaks between 2015 and 2040. It's a €300m commitment, and the EU's share of the bill is €250m or so over the duration of the lease.
This is the type of thing they will horse trade - we pull out of leases based over there in return for cutting them loose from their commitments over here.0 -
Initially an Independent Labour candidate supported by Bob Mellish was expected to be Peter Tatchell's main opponent.rottenborough said:
Bermondsey?Andy_Cooke said:
Well, not from 2.5 weeks, but from a month out in Richmond Park, it was found to be 56% Zac, 29% Olney.Essexit said:Assuming the canvassing data is correct, what examples are there - by-election or otherwise - of a 20% deficit being overturned in two and a half weeks?
The LDs may be on course for an impressive increase in vote share and a clear second, but no more than that.
http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/richmond-park-election-voting-key-issue-results/
"Bermondsey was one of the first by-elections to be extensively polled. The polls showed, at first, that the Labour vote was substantially down on the 1979 election figures, but that none of the rival candidates were particularly close."
(Wikipedia)0 -
The LibDems are (currently) only bit players in that storyline, and you can't blame them for trying to make the most of their few lines in the play. They have their own future to look out for, after all.felix said:
Yes - but the danger is that they over-egg the pudding - win and Labour finally come to their senses in time to recover before the next GE.Charles said:
I don't think the Lib Dem's strategy is meant to win the election. It's intended to make them relevant to thenatio so conversation - that's enough for nowIanB2 said:
I don't see a better strategy that offers a quicker or easier exit route from the last of those? Not wanting to start from here doesn't work.felix said:
Yes - and I also wonder if any of their strategists [BigRich said:
I wonder to what extent, that the LibDems having a having a By-election that seems to be just with in reach of winning, will divert LibDem activists, away form LG elections and make the gains in numbers of councillors less than they would over wise be?David_Evershed said:In the Manchester Gorton by-election, the Lib Dems would much prefer a previous Labour voter switching to Lib Dem than a former Conservative voter since it not only increases the Lib Dem vote but reduces the Labour vote.
A Labour to Lib Dem switcher is wort twice a Conservative to Lib Dem switcher.
Lib Dem canvassers should concentrate on Labour voters. } have thought through the likely effect on their polling if Labour get rid of JC and become more centrist. Truth is they are locked in a strategy that gives them a few good headlines while keeping them very firmly as a distant third party.
Besides, who says that getting rid of Corbyn will deliver any sort of resolution for Labour? It could just as easily be the beginning of the end.0 -
In theory the EMA can be based outside the EU, so it's the EU's choice to incur that liability.malcolmg said:
UK will pay it as part of Brexit bill.Charles said:
Why would the owner of the building agree to that?chestnut said:
Yes, EU agencies belong in the EU.SouthamObserver said:
How will it concentrate minds? The EU will merely say EU agencies must be in the EU and subject to EU law.SeanT said:FPT London is quite right to fight for those EU Agencies (even though we are highly unlikely to retain them). It's part of the bargaining process.
I imagine HMG will say "OK, you want to take these Agencies from us? Then give us 20% of the assets of all the other EU Agencies, across Europe, which the UK has helped to fund and staff since the UK acceded in 1973."
It's a perfectly fair request: in a divorce you divide the assets. It will be fiendishly complicated and messy and it is possible - just possible - an accord could be reached whereby the UK kept, say, the EMA in return for not making a claim on the other agencies - much easier and cleaner for all.
And even if the EU refuses (as they very probably will) it will concentrate minds in Brussels. The UK has claims on the EU, as well as vice versa.
The big issue here isn't the jobs, at least not for the UK. Our share of the workforce between the EBA/EMA is under 100 headcount, whereas the best part of 1k EU citizens will have to relocate from London to wherever the EU plant these functions.
The real issues are the leases.
The EBA has a £1.8m (€2.1m) p.a twelve year rental lease on it's Canary Wharf property which it can break from halfway through - the end of 2020.
Our share of the lease would be about £300k p.a - theirs is £1.5m.
The EMA lease however is a more substantial £10.5m (c.€13m) p.a on a 25 year lease with no breaks between 2015 and 2040. It's a €300m commitment, and the EU's share of the bill is €250m or so over the duration of the lease.
This is the type of thing they will horse trade - we pull out of leases based over there in return for cutting them loose from their commitments over here.
(I wouldn't be surprised to see the UK remain in the EMA and it to remain in London. Or to have a mutual recognition arrangement. There's little merit to having a separate approval process)0 -
-
Lets just say that againTheScreamingEagles said:Re that YouGov.
A few interesting points
The Tories lead every age group except the 18-24s
Tories are 49% ahead of Lab with the overs 65s,
Overs 65s VI: Con 61, Lab 12, LD 11, UKIP 11
So Labour are a gnat's fart away from being fourth with the overs 65s
Tories lead Labour with the working classes by 20%
Scottish subsample klaxon
SNP 44, Com 26, Lab 13. LD 10
Tories also lead Labour in the North by 3%
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/04/17/voting-intention-conservatives-44-labour-23-12-13-/
Tories lead Labour with the working classes by 20%
Wow, just wow.
Labour you are in a deep pile of shit.0 -
The owners will not care that much as long as they continue to get their money, will they?Charles said:
Why would the owner of the building agree to that?chestnut said:
Yes, EU agencies belong in the EU.SouthamObserver said:
How will it concentrate minds? The EU will merely say EU agencies must be in the EU and subject to EU law.SeanT said:FPT London is quite right to fight for those EU Agencies (even though we are highly unlikely to retain them). It's part of the bargaining process.
I imagine HMG will say "OK, you want to take these Agencies from us? Then give us 20% of the assets of all the other EU Agencies, across Europe, which the UK has helped to fund and staff since the UK acceded in 1973."
It's a perfectly fair request: in a divorce you divide the assets. It will be fiendishly complicated and messy and it is possible - just possible - an accord could be reached whereby the UK kept, say, the EMA in return for not making a claim on the other agencies - much easier and cleaner for all.
And even if the EU refuses (as they very probably will) it will concentrate minds in Brussels. The UK has claims on the EU, as well as vice versa.
The big issue here isn't the jobs, at least not for the UK. Our share of the workforce between the EBA/EMA is under 100 headcount, whereas the best part of 1k EU citizens will have to relocate from London to wherever the EU plant these functions.
The real issues are the leases.
The EBA has a £1.8m (€2.1m) p.a twelve year rental lease on it's Canary Wharf property which it can break from halfway through - the end of 2020.
Our share of the lease would be about £300k p.a - theirs is £1.5m.
The EMA lease however is a more substantial £10.5m (c.€13m) p.a on a 25 year lease with no breaks between 2015 and 2040. It's a €300m commitment, and the EU's share of the bill is €250m or so over the duration of the lease.
This is the type of thing they will horse trade - we pull out of leases based over there in return for cutting them loose from their commitments over here.
The tenants in Canary Wharf will effectively become HMG instead of the EU, while the tenants in Europe will be the EU27 instead of the EU28.
This is the type of bargaining I would anticipate happening as the UK/EU divide up the assets and seek to settle or tidy up obligations.
0 -
That news, whilst it may be significant is days old.williamglenn said:0 -
depends what we think EU27's covenant strength is (shoutout to the lawyers...!)chestnut said:
The owners will not care that much as long as they continue to get their money, will they?Charles said:
Why would the owner of the building agree to that?chestnut said:
Yes, EU agencies belong in the EU.SouthamObserver said:
How will it concentrate minds? The EU will merely say EU agencies must be in the EU and subject to EU law.SeanT said:FPT London is quite right to fight for those EU Agencies (even though we are highly unlikely to retain them). It's part of the bargaining process.
I imagine HMG will say "OK, you want to take these Agencies from us? Then give us 20% of the assets of all the other EU Agencies, across Europe, which the UK has helped to fund and staff since the UK acceded in 1973."
It's a perfectly fair request: in a divorce you divide the assets. It will be fiendishly complicated and messy and it is possible - just possible - an accord could be reached whereby the UK kept, say, the EMA in return for not making a claim on the other agencies - much easier and cleaner for all.
And even if the EU refuses (as they very probably will) it will concentrate minds in Brussels. The UK has claims on the EU, as well as vice versa.
The big issue here isn't the jobs, at least not for the UK. Our share of the workforce between the EBA/EMA is under 100 headcount, whereas the best part of 1k EU citizens will have to relocate from London to wherever the EU plant these functions.
The real issues are the leases.
The EBA has a £1.8m (€2.1m) p.a twelve year rental lease on it's Canary Wharf property which it can break from halfway through - the end of 2020.
Our share of the lease would be about £300k p.a - theirs is £1.5m.
The EMA lease however is a more substantial £10.5m (c.€13m) p.a on a 25 year lease with no breaks between 2015 and 2040. It's a €300m commitment, and the EU's share of the bill is €250m or so over the duration of the lease.
This is the type of thing they will horse trade - we pull out of leases based over there in return for cutting them loose from their commitments over here.
The tenants in Canary Wharf will effectively become HMG instead of the EU, while the tenants in Europe will be the EU27 instead of the EU28.
This is the type of bargaining I would anticipate happening as the UK/EU divide up the assets and seek to settle or tidy up obligations.0 -
Labour the party of theFloater said:
Lets just say that againTheScreamingEagles said:Re that YouGov.
A few interesting points
The Tories lead every age group except the 18-24s
Tories are 49% ahead of Lab with the overs 65s,
Overs 65s VI: Con 61, Lab 12, LD 11, UKIP 11
So Labour are a gnat's fart away from being fourth with the overs 65s
Tories lead Labour with the working classes by 20%
Scottish subsample klaxon
SNP 44, Com 26, Lab 13. LD 10
Tories also lead Labour in the North by 3%
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/04/17/voting-intention-conservatives-44-labour-23-12-13-/
Tories lead Labour with the working classes by 20%
Wow, just wow.
Labour you are in a deep pile of shit.working classNorth London Liberal Elite.
One thing I notice with the Maomentum demos is they are whiter than a Lib Dem MP day out or a Tory Toff Hunt jolly. You definitely get the feeling they are attended by the same types as the UK BLMs demos.0 -
Long way to go before it looks winnable, even if the initial canvass data is right.
Nonsense, no one ever did that *shuffles nervously*.Andy_Cooke said:
Possibly.rottenborough said:
Bermondsey?Andy_Cooke said:
Well, not from 2.5 weeks, but from a month out in Richmond Park, it was found to be 56% Zac, 29% Olney.Essexit said:Assuming the canvassing data is correct, what examples are there - by-election or otherwise - of a 20% deficit being overturned in two and a half weeks?
The LDs may be on course for an impressive increase in vote share and a clear second, but no more than that.
http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/richmond-park-election-voting-key-issue-results/
"Bermondsey was one of the first by-elections to be extensively polled. The polls showed, at first, that the Labour vote was substantially down on the 1979 election figures, but that none of the rival candidates were particularly close."
(Wikipedia)
The Richmond Park poll stuck in the memory because when it was discussed on here, quite a few commentators responded by calling the contest for Zac immediately and dismissing the Lib Dems chances.
Even as someone who does not fully believe the high tory figures, I have to ask - what are the 18-24s seeing in Corbyn that they still put Labour above the Tories?TheScreamingEagles said:Re that YouGov.
A few interesting points
The Tories lead every age group except the 18-24s
Tories are 49% ahead of Lab with the overs 65s,
Overs 65s VI: Con 61, Lab 12, LD 11, UKIP 11
So Labour are a gnat's fart away from being fourth with the overs 65s
Tories lead Labour with the working classes by 20%
Scottish subsample klaxon
SNP 44, Com 26, Lab 13. LD 10
Tories also lead Labour in the North by 3%
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/04/17/voting-intention-conservatives-44-labour-23-12-13-/
0 -
It is possible they are still the party for the working class, even if they are not of the working class or supported by the working class. Technically possible, I do not say it is the case.FrancisUrquhart said:
Labour the party of theFloater said:
Lets just say that againTheScreamingEagles said:Re that YouGov.
A few interesting points
The Tories lead every age group except the 18-24s
Tories are 49% ahead of Lab with the overs 65s,
Overs 65s VI: Con 61, Lab 12, LD 11, UKIP 11
So Labour are a gnat's fart away from being fourth with the overs 65s
Tories lead Labour with the working classes by 20%
Scottish subsample klaxon
SNP 44, Com 26, Lab 13. LD 10
Tories also lead Labour in the North by 3%
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/04/17/voting-intention-conservatives-44-labour-23-12-13-/
Tories lead Labour with the working classes by 20%
Wow, just wow.
Labour you are in a deep pile of shit.working classNorth London Liberal Elite.
.
0 -
Aren't old enough to remember the 70s, when most of Jezza's policies were last tested to destruction.kle4 said:Long way to go before it looks winnable, even if the initial canvass data is right.
Nonsense, no one ever did that *shuffles nervously*.Andy_Cooke said:
Possibly.rottenborough said:
Bermondsey?Andy_Cooke said:
Well, not from 2.5 weeks, but from a month out in Richmond Park, it was found to be 56% Zac, 29% Olney.Essexit said:Assuming the canvassing data is correct, what examples are there - by-election or otherwise - of a 20% deficit being overturned in two and a half weeks?
The LDs may be on course for an impressive increase in vote share and a clear second, but no more than that.
http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/richmond-park-election-voting-key-issue-results/
"Bermondsey was one of the first by-elections to be extensively polled. The polls showed, at first, that the Labour vote was substantially down on the 1979 election figures, but that none of the rival candidates were particularly close."
(Wikipedia)
The Richmond Park poll stuck in the memory because when it was discussed on here, quite a few commentators responded by calling the contest for Zac immediately and dismissing the Lib Dems chances.
Even as someone who does not fully believe the high tory figures, I have to ask - what are the 18-24s seeing in Corbyn that they still put Labour above the Tories?TheScreamingEagles said:Re that YouGov.
A few interesting points
The Tories lead every age group except the 18-24s
Tories are 49% ahead of Lab with the overs 65s,
Overs 65s VI: Con 61, Lab 12, LD 11, UKIP 11
So Labour are a gnat's fart away from being fourth with the overs 65s
Tories lead Labour with the working classes by 20%
Scottish subsample klaxon
SNP 44, Com 26, Lab 13. LD 10
Tories also lead Labour in the North by 3%
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/04/17/voting-intention-conservatives-44-labour-23-12-13-/0 -
He's just saving his dip until the last minute :laugh:TheWhiteRabbit said:
Melenchon isn't an insurgent then?rcs1000 said:
I think that's right. My theory - which is derided by some - is that people quite like the policies of the insurgent parties (like the FN or the PVV or the Five Star), but don't trust them to run the country (yet). The result is that they see a fair drop off as you approach polling day.Jonathan said:
Reality vs. Protest.rcs1000 said:
The PVV also fell off in the last two weeks of the Dutch Election.SeanT said:
What is driving Le Pen's decline? Presumably the rise of Melenchon. With similar economic views and no nazi past.kyf_100 said:
The other possibility here is that Macron's vote is the softest, with Le Pen you have a lot of far-right types certain to come out and with Fillon you have older and more conservative voters who, as we know, vote.BudG said:In case anyone missed it durint the thread change-over, FPT:
Opinium daily rolling poll
Macron 22 (=)
Le Pen 22 (-1)
Fillon 21 (+1)
Melenchon 18 (+1)
https://www.lesechos.fr/elections/presidentielle-2017/0211739192332-sondage-le-suivi-quotidien-de-la-presidentielle-2062937.php
This is a pretty significant poll, as Opinionway have tended to be one of the more favourable polls for Le Pen. I said last week that she was not a 1/6 shot to make the final two and this poll bears that out. I think she is gonna miss out!
I'm now thinking it may be a Le Pen / Fillon run off and have adjusted my book accordingly.
It's one thing to say "FU all, I am voting Le Pen", it's quite another to want to be governed by Le Pen.
Party Machines make a difference.
Fillon has support in depth, a machine proven to win.0 -
Sorry to break it to you but even forty year olds aren't old enough to remember the 70s!FrancisUrquhart said:
Aren't old enough to remember the 70s, when most of Jezza's policies were last tested to destruction.kle4 said:Long way to go before it looks winnable, even if the initial canvass data is right.
Nonsense, no one ever did that *shuffles nervously*.Andy_Cooke said:
Possibly.rottenborough said:
Bermondsey?Andy_Cooke said:
Well, not from 2.5 weeks, but from a month out in Richmond Park, it was found to be 56% Zac, 29% Olney.Essexit said:Assuming the canvassing data is correct, what examples are there - by-election or otherwise - of a 20% deficit being overturned in two and a half weeks?
The LDs may be on course for an impressive increase in vote share and a clear second, but no more than that.
http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/richmond-park-election-voting-key-issue-results/
"Bermondsey was one of the first by-elections to be extensively polled. The polls showed, at first, that the Labour vote was substantially down on the 1979 election figures, but that none of the rival candidates were particularly close."
(Wikipedia)
The Richmond Park poll stuck in the memory because when it was discussed on here, quite a few commentators responded by calling the contest for Zac immediately and dismissing the Lib Dems chances.
Even as someone who does not fully believe the high tory figures, I have to ask - what are the 18-24s seeing in Corbyn that they still put Labour above the Tories?TheScreamingEagles said:Re that YouGov.
A few interesting points
The Tories lead every age group except the 18-24s
Tories are 49% ahead of Lab with the overs 65s,
Overs 65s VI: Con 61, Lab 12, LD 11, UKIP 11
So Labour are a gnat's fart away from being fourth with the overs 65s
Tories lead Labour with the working classes by 20%
Scottish subsample klaxon
SNP 44, Com 26, Lab 13. LD 10
Tories also lead Labour in the North by 3%
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/04/17/voting-intention-conservatives-44-labour-23-12-13-/
More likely 18 to 24 year olds aren't yet used to working to pay their own way and having to understand the importance of keeping spending within control in order to pay your rent/mortgage and put food on the table etc yet.0 -
More seriously, I think it is probably a bit of both. Even people in their late 30s / 40s are well aware of the tales of the likes of crazy high tax rates, 3 day weeks, etc and what a disaster that was.Philip_Thompson said:
Sorry to break it to you but even forty year olds aren't old enough to remember the 70s!
More likely 18 to 24 year olds aren't yet used to working to pay their own way and having to understand the importance of keeping spending within control in order to pay your rent/mortgage and put food on the table etc yet.
People in their early 20s are less aware that at one point in recent history we did have a situation where the government took basically all of individuals money over x amount, and even if they are they can never see themselves earning that amount.0 -
Or it could be that they are utterly appalled by the nasty Tory policies and Tory attitudes that go with them. To such an extent, that even Mr Corbyn`s Labour Party seems preferable.FrancisUrquhart said:
Aren't old enough to remember the 70s, when most of Jezza's policies were last tested to destruction.kle4 said:
Even as someone who does not fully believe the high tory figures, I have to ask - what are the 18-24s seeing in Corbyn that they still put Labour above the Tories?
0 -
No, I can tell you from experience it's that (a) Corbyn's Hama/IRA-supporting threat-to-national-security line has little import and (b) they don't remember the days of British rail and the like and (c) they are traditional labour territory.Philip_Thompson said:
Sorry to break it to you but even forty year olds aren't old enough to remember the 70s!FrancisUrquhart said:
Aren't old enough to remember the 70s, when most of Jezza's policies were last tested to destruction.kle4 said:Long way to go before it looks winnable, even if the initial canvass data is right.
Nonsense, no one ever did that *shuffles nervously*.Andy_Cooke said:
Possibly.rottenborough said:
Bermondsey?Andy_Cooke said:
Well, not from 2.5 weeks, but from a month out in Richmond Park, it was found to be 56% Zac, 29% Olney.Essexit said:Assuming the canvassing data is correct, what examples are there - by-election or otherwise - of a 20% deficit being overturned in two and a half weeks?
The LDs may be on course for an impressive increase in vote share and a clear second, but no more than that.
http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/richmond-park-election-voting-key-issue-results/
"Bermondsey was one of the first by-elections to be extensively polled. The polls showed, at first, that the Labour vote was substantially down on the 1979 election figures, but that none of the rival candidates were particularly close."
(Wikipedia)
The Richmond Park poll stuck in the memory because when it was discussed on here, quite a few commentators responded by calling the contest for Zac immediately and dismissing the Lib Dems chances.
Even as someone who does not fully believe the high tory figures, I have to ask - what are the 18-24s seeing in Corbyn that they still put Labour above the Tories?TheScreamingEagles said:Re that YouGov.
A few interesting points
The Tories lead every age group except the 18-24s
Tories are 49% ahead of Lab with the overs 65s,
Overs 65s VI: Con 61, Lab 12, LD 11, UKIP 11
So Labour are a gnat's fart away from being fourth with the overs 65s
Tories lead Labour with the working classes by 20%
Scottish subsample klaxon
SNP 44, Com 26, Lab 13. LD 10
Tories also lead Labour in the North by 3%
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/04/17/voting-intention-conservatives-44-labour-23-12-13-/
More likely 18 to 24 year olds aren't yet used to working to pay their own way and having to understand the importance of keeping spending within control in order to pay your rent/mortgage and put food on the table etc yet.0 -
Hamas supporting might be a positive. We know on university campus there are increasing issues with antisemitism and support for anti-zionist / pro-Palestine views.TheWhiteRabbit said:
No, I can tell you from experience it's that (a) Corbyn's Hama/IRA-supporting threat-to-national-security line has little import and (b) they don't remember the days of British rail and the like and (c) they are traditional labour territory.
I mean they voted for an NUS president who has been exposed as having some pretty disgusting views on these issues and only a small number of universities has taken action to disassociate themselves with it.0 -
Yes, but the question is why the 18-24 year old ones are the only group who are so appalled - you presumably think they are nasty to everyone, except pensioners, but only the18-24 year olds are sticking with Corbyn. Nastiness of the Tories, even if true, does not explain it on its own.PClipp said:
Or it could be that they are utterly appalled by the nasty Tory policies and Tory attitudes that go with them. To such an extent, that even Mr Corbyn`s Labour Party seems preferable.FrancisUrquhart said:
Aren't old enough to remember the 70s, when most of Jezza's policies were last tested to destruction.kle4 said:
Even as someone who does not fully believe the high tory figures, I have to ask - what are the 18-24s seeing in Corbyn that they still put Labour above the Tories?0 -
*** FREE MONEY ALERT *** FREE MONEY ALERT *** FREE MONEY ALERT ***
Back Fillon to win the French Presidential Election with Sportingbet at 5.50
Lay him to lose the French Presidential Election with Betfair Exchange at 4.50 = 4.74 after 5% commission.
Roll up, roll up, this can't last!
DYOR.0 -
Interesting table, S Lab aren't putting up candidates in 3 councils! (But its the 3 island councils so normal I think?)calum said:Interestingly the Scottish LibDems aren't putting any candidates up in 8 out of the 32 councils - see page 2 of the PDF
http://www.electionsscotland.info/downloads/file/343/scottish_local_government_elections_2017_-_summary_of_candidates_nominated
I'm actually confused as there seem less candidates overall than I would have expected.
Even the SNP is only putting up 627 out of 1227, 51.1% and that's the highest by a long way.
Is it harder to get people nominated in Scotland that England and wales? or is the AV system encouraging parties to tactically stand down? or are all the parties struggling to find people to stand? or something else I have not noticed?0 -
They are seeing their rentbook (which of course nowdays they don't get, because of the rights that used to be inside the back cover) and the price of houses.kle4 said:Long way to go before it looks winnable, even if the initial canvass data is right.
Nonsense, no one ever did that *shuffles nervously*.Andy_Cooke said:
Possibly.rottenborough said:
Bermondsey?Andy_Cooke said:
Well, not from 2.5 weeks, but from a month out in Richmond Park, it was found to be 56% Zac, 29% Olney.Essexit said:Assuming the canvassing data is correct, what examples are there - by-election or otherwise - of a 20% deficit being overturned in two and a half weeks?
The LDs may be on course for an impressive increase in vote share and a clear second, but no more than that.
http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/richmond-park-election-voting-key-issue-results/
"Bermondsey was one of the first by-elections to be extensively polled. The polls showed, at first, that the Labour vote was substantially down on the 1979 election figures, but that none of the rival candidates were particularly close."
(Wikipedia)
The Richmond Park poll stuck in the memory because when it was discussed on here, quite a few commentators responded by calling the contest for Zac immediately and dismissing the Lib Dems chances.
Even as someone who does not fully believe the high tory figures, I have to ask - what are the 18-24s seeing in Corbyn that they still put Labour above the Tories?TheScreamingEagles said:Re that YouGov.
A few interesting points
The Tories lead every age group except the 18-24s
Tories are 49% ahead of Lab with the overs 65s,
Overs 65s VI: Con 61, Lab 12, LD 11, UKIP 11
So Labour are a gnat's fart away from being fourth with the overs 65s
Tories lead Labour with the working classes by 20%
Scottish subsample klaxon
SNP 44, Com 26, Lab 13. LD 10
Tories also lead Labour in the North by 3%
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/04/17/voting-intention-conservatives-44-labour-23-12-13-/0 -
The 3Day Week was under Ted Heath and tax rates were little different from what they were five years later - indeed VAT was reduced to 8% under Labour.FrancisUrquhart said:
More seriously, I think it is probably a bit of both. Even people in their late 30s / 40s are well aware of the tales of the likes of crazy high tax rates, 3 day weeks, etc and what a disaster that was.Philip_Thompson said:
Sorry to break it to you but even forty year olds aren't old enough to remember the 70s!
More likely 18 to 24 year olds aren't yet used to working to pay their own way and having to understand the importance of keeping spending within control in order to pay your rent/mortgage and put food on the table etc yet.
People in their early 20s are less aware that at one point in recent history we did have a situation where the government took basically all of individuals money over x amount, and even if they are they can never see themselves earning that amount.0 -
No I think you overestimate how aware 30 somethings who weren't even born in the seventies think about the three day week etc. I'm turning 35 this year, I was first old enough to vote in Blair's second victory. Our formative knowledge of politics was not dominated by the seventies era but by Thatcher.FrancisUrquhart said:
More seriously, I think it is probably a bit of both. Even people in their late 30s / 40s are well aware of the tales of the likes of crazy high tax rates, 3 day weeks, etc and what a disaster that was.Philip_Thompson said:
Sorry to break it to you but even forty year olds aren't old enough to remember the 70s!
More likely 18 to 24 year olds aren't yet used to working to pay their own way and having to understand the importance of keeping spending within control in order to pay your rent/mortgage and put food on the table etc yet.
People in their early 20s are less aware that at one point in recent history we did have a situation where the government took basically all of individuals money over x amount, and even if they are they can never see themselves earning that amount.
That my generation has swung from Blair to Tory is not due to the three day week etc.0 -
It was to do with union power....justin124 said:
The 3Day Week was under Ted Heath and tax rates were little different from what they were five years later - indeed VAT was reduced to 8% under Labour.FrancisUrquhart said:
More seriously, I think it is probably a bit of both. Even people in their late 30s / 40s are well aware of the tales of the likes of crazy high tax rates, 3 day weeks, etc and what a disaster that was.Philip_Thompson said:
Sorry to break it to you but even forty year olds aren't old enough to remember the 70s!
More likely 18 to 24 year olds aren't yet used to working to pay their own way and having to understand the importance of keeping spending within control in order to pay your rent/mortgage and put food on the table etc yet.
People in their early 20s are less aware that at one point in recent history we did have a situation where the government took basically all of individuals money over x amount, and even if they are they can never see themselves earning that amount.
As for tax rates...There were 10 different rates of income tax in those days, going up to 83% on incomes above 20,000, plus a 98% band for investment income.
All of this is not associated with Tories. Yes we have arguments about how much Thatcher really cut taxes, but the reality is people remember the Tories winning the 1979 general election and a period which was much more pro-business and lower income tax rates.
Talk of super taxes, wealth taxes, increasing union powers, has people old enough to remember the chills of what a shit state the UK was in the 70s.
When Thatcher died, despite often media portrayal of her time in power, the polling showed her period in power / policies were thought of better than all other modern PMs.0 -
The question of how many candidates to put up in an STV election is highly tactical. And also political, because it sends messages about your prospects. You don't want to put up a full slate as they will never all get elected and there is an attrition of votes during the transfer stages - some voters don't bother to make later preferences and some voters have reasons for splitting their ticket. Ideally each person on your ticket brings in a personal vote plus some type of 'constituency' vote (appeal to particular localities, demographics, or policy stances) and you don't want those personal votes transferring elsewhere by spreading your ticket vote too thin or too thick.BigRich said:
Interesting table, S Lab aren't putting up candidates in 3 councils! (But its the 3 island councils so normal I think?)calum said:Interestingly the Scottish LibDems aren't putting any candidates up in 8 out of the 32 councils - see page 2 of the PDF
http://www.electionsscotland.info/downloads/file/343/scottish_local_government_elections_2017_-_summary_of_candidates_nominated
I'm actually confused as there seem less candidates overall than I would have expected.
Even the SNP is only putting up 627 out of 1227, 51.1% and that's the highest by a long way.
Is it harder to get people nominated in Scotland that England and wales? or is the AV system encouraging parties to tactically stand down? or are all the parties struggling to find people to stand? or something else I have not noticed?
On the other hand putting up a small team reduces the breadth of your appeal, and your first person who gets in goes way over quota so vote attrition kicks in again. Plus, you never know, you might do better than you expect. In Ireland they are experts at this kind of stuff.
0 -
.0
-
Thanks Ian, that makes more sense now.IanB2 said:
The question of how many candidates to put up in an STV election is highly tactical. And also political, because it sends messages about your prospects. You don't want to put up a full slate as they will never all get elected and there is an attrition of votes during the transfer stages - some voters don't bother to make later preferences and some voters have reasons for splitting their ticket. On the other hand putting up a small team reduces the breadth of your appeal, and your first person who gets in goes way over quota so vote attrition kicks in again. Plus, you never know, you might do better than you expect. In Ireland they are experts at this kind of stuff.BigRich said:
Interesting table, S Lab aren't putting up candidates in 3 councils! (But its the 3 island councils so normal I think?)calum said:Interestingly the Scottish LibDems aren't putting any candidates up in 8 out of the 32 councils - see page 2 of the PDF
http://www.electionsscotland.info/downloads/file/343/scottish_local_government_elections_2017_-_summary_of_candidates_nominated
I'm actually confused as there seem less candidates overall than I would have expected.
Even the SNP is only putting up 627 out of 1227, 51.1% and that's the highest by a long way.
Is it harder to get people nominated in Scotland that England and wales? or is the AV system encouraging parties to tactically stand down? or are all the parties struggling to find people to stand? or something else I have not noticed?0 -
I edited in a bit more below, as well.BigRich said:
Thanks Ian, that makes more sense now.IanB2 said:
The question of how many candidates to put up in an STV election is highly tactical. And also political, because it sends messages about your prospects. You don't want to put up a full slate as they will never all get elected and there is an attrition of votes during the transfer stages - some voters don't bother to make later preferences and some voters have reasons for splitting their ticket. On the other hand putting up a small team reduces the breadth of your appeal, and your first person who gets in goes way over quota so vote attrition kicks in again. Plus, you never know, you might do better than you expect. In Ireland they are experts at this kind of stuff.BigRich said:
Interesting table, S Lab aren't putting up candidates in 3 councils! (But its the 3 island councils so normal I think?)calum said:Interestingly the Scottish LibDems aren't putting any candidates up in 8 out of the 32 councils - see page 2 of the PDF
http://www.electionsscotland.info/downloads/file/343/scottish_local_government_elections_2017_-_summary_of_candidates_nominated
I'm actually confused as there seem less candidates overall than I would have expected.
Even the SNP is only putting up 627 out of 1227, 51.1% and that's the highest by a long way.
Is it harder to get people nominated in Scotland that England and wales? or is the AV system encouraging parties to tactically stand down? or are all the parties struggling to find people to stand? or something else I have not noticed?
P.s. Plus the game is to hope for the other parties' losers to be eliminated before yours, so you can gain from stray transfers.0 -
Today's ifop rolling poll :
Macron 23 (+0.5)
Le Pen 22.5 (-0.5)
Melenchon 19.5 (+0.5)
Fillon 19.5 (+0.5)
http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_17-04-2017.pdf0 -
Which policies and attitudes are those, and why is their nastiness relatively invisible to those of 25 and above?PClipp said:
Or it could be that they are utterly appalled by the nasty Tory policies and Tory attitudes that go with them. To such an extent, that even Mr Corbyn`s Labour Party seems preferable.FrancisUrquhart said:
Aren't old enough to remember the 70s, when most of Jezza's policies were last tested to destruction.kle4 said:
Even as someone who does not fully believe the high tory figures, I have to ask - what are the 18-24s seeing in Corbyn that they still put Labour above the Tories?0 -
It's not particularly harder to get nominated, with there being a fair number of independent candidates standing.BigRich said:
Interesting table, S Lab aren't putting up candidates in 3 councils! (But its the 3 island councils so normal I think?)calum said:Interestingly the Scottish LibDems aren't putting any candidates up in 8 out of the 32 councils - see page 2 of the PDF
http://www.electionsscotland.info/downloads/file/343/scottish_local_government_elections_2017_-_summary_of_candidates_nominated
I'm actually confused as there seem less candidates overall than I would have expected.
Even the SNP is only putting up 627 out of 1227, 51.1% and that's the highest by a long way.
Is it harder to get people nominated in Scotland that England and wales? or is the AV system encouraging parties to tactically stand down? or are all the parties struggling to find people to stand? or something else I have not noticed?
I think the STV system does mean parties have to be cautious around how many candidates they put up per ward, typically you'd only put up the number of candidates who have some prospect of winning after transfers. That said, this doesn't explain why the likes of Scottish LibDems are fielding no candidates in councils other than the traditional independent councils in a number of the islands. The lack of candidates could well be a factor - if so, that'd be deeply worrying for any party in this position.
0 -
All parties have difficulty finding candidates, particularly once those with the wrong reasons for standing have been weeded out. I suspect it is lack of organisation, and/or tradition leading key people to stand as independents - something much more common in rural rUK in the old days (for example in the West Country).calum said:
It's not particularly harder to get nominated, with there being a fair number of independent candidates standing.BigRich said:
Interesting table, S Lab aren't putting up candidates in 3 councils! (But its the 3 island councils so normal I think?)calum said:Interestingly the Scottish LibDems aren't putting any candidates up in 8 out of the 32 councils - see page 2 of the PDF
http://www.electionsscotland.info/downloads/file/343/scottish_local_government_elections_2017_-_summary_of_candidates_nominated
I'm actually confused as there seem less candidates overall than I would have expected.
Even the SNP is only putting up 627 out of 1227, 51.1% and that's the highest by a long way.
Is it harder to get people nominated in Scotland that England and wales? or is the AV system encouraging parties to tactically stand down? or are all the parties struggling to find people to stand? or something else I have not noticed?
I think the STV system does mean parties have to be cautious around how many candidates they put up per ward, typically you'd only put up the number of candidates who have some prospect of winning after transfers. That said, this doesn't explain why the likes of Scottish LibDems are fielding no candidates in councils other than the traditional independent councils in a number of the islands. The lack of candidates could well be a factor - if so, that'd be deeply worrying for any party in this position.0 -
I think the younger age groups are repelled by the Tories, because they are being hit by them here and now. Older age groups are still giving the Tories the benefit of the doubt over the Brexit negotiations. People still cling to the idea that the Tories are going to deliver on whatever policy it was that moved them to vote for Leave. It won`t last, of course, because the Tories are in an entirely contradictory position, which makes it impossible for them to satisfy everybody. The most they can hope for is to satisfy Murdoch - and that would be another turn-off for most voters.kle4 said:
Yes, but the question is why the 18-24 year old ones are the only group who are so appalled - you presumably think they are nasty to everyone, except pensioners, but only the18-24 year olds are sticking with Corbyn. Nastiness of the Tories, even if true, does not explain it on its own.PClipp said:
Or it could be that they are utterly appalled by the nasty Tory policies and Tory attitudes that go with them. To such an extent, that even Mr Corbyn`s Labour Party seems preferable.FrancisUrquhart said:
Aren't old enough to remember the 70s, when most of Jezza's policies were last tested to destruction.kle4 said:
Even as someone who does not fully believe the high tory figures, I have to ask - what are the 18-24s seeing in Corbyn that they still put Labour above the Tories?0 -
IanB2 said:
I edited in a bit more below, as well.BigRich said:
Thanks Ian, that makes more sense now.IanB2 said:
The question of how many candidates to put up in an STV election is highly tactical. And also political, because it sends messages about your prospects. You don't want to put up a full slate as they will never all get elected and there is an attrition of votes during the transfer stages - some voters don't bother to make later preferences and some voters have reasons for splitting their ticket. On the other hand putting up a small team reduces the breadth of your appeal, and your first person who gets in goes way over quota so vote attrition kicks in again. Plus, you never know, you might do better than you expect. In Ireland they are experts at this kind of stuff.BigRich said:
Interesting table, S Lab aren't putting up candidates in 3 councils! (But its the 3 island councils so normal I think?)calum said:Interestingly the Scottish LibDems aren't putting any candidates up in 8 out of the 32 councils - see page 2 of the PDF
http://www.electionsscotland.info/downloads/file/343/scottish_local_government_elections_2017_-_summary_of_candidates_nominated
I'm actually confused as there seem less candidates overall than I would have expected.
Even the SNP is only putting up 627 out of 1227, 51.1% and that's the highest by a long way.
Is it harder to get people nominated in Scotland that England and wales? or is the AV system encouraging parties to tactically stand down? or are all the parties struggling to find people to stand? or something else I have not noticed?
P.s. Plus the game is to hope for the other parties' losers to be eliminated before yours, so you can gain from stray transfers.
Thanks again!
I have just notices on there that the Scottish Libertarian Party are standing 22 People !!!
I cant imagine that they are likely to win, but all publicity is good publicity!!
Link to there website: http://scottishlibertarians.com/candidates-announced/
0 -
I would be stunned if the EMA stays in London if we leave it. As i said on a previous thread... We might as well ask them to move the European parliament here.Charles said:<
(I wouldn't be surprised to see the UK remain in the EMA and it to remain in London. Or to have a mutual recognition arrangement. There's little merit to having a separate approval process)
Even Jeremy Hunt thinks it's going and we are leaving the EMA.0 -
But all age cohorts favour the Conservatives, save the 18-24 year olds.PClipp said:
I think the younger age groups are repelled by the Tories, because they are being hit by them here and now. Older age groups are still giving the Tories the benefit of the doubt over the Brexit negotiations. People still cling to the idea that the Tories are going to deliver on whatever policy it was that moved them to vote for Leave. It won`t last, of course, because the Tories are in an entirely contradictory position, which makes it impossible for them to satisfy everybody. The most they can hope for is to satisfy Murdoch - and that would be another turn-off for most voters.kle4 said:
Yes, but the question is why the 18-24 year old ones are the only group who are so appalled - you presumably think they are nasty to everyone, except pensioners, but only the18-24 year olds are sticking with Corbyn. Nastiness of the Tories, even if true, does not explain it on its own.PClipp said:
Or it could be that they are utterly appalled by the nasty Tory policies and Tory attitudes that go with them. To such an extent, that even Mr Corbyn`s Labour Party seems preferable.FrancisUrquhart said:
Aren't old enough to remember the 70s, when most of Jezza's policies were last tested to destruction.kle4 said:
Even as someone who does not fully believe the high tory figures, I have to ask - what are the 18-24s seeing in Corbyn that they still put Labour above the Tories?0 -
You missed out Thatcher, Thatcher, Thatcher, baby eating, Thatcher from your buzzword bingo.PClipp said:
I think the younger age groups are repelled by the Tories, because they are being hit by them here and now. Older age groups are still giving the Tories the benefit of the doubt over the Brexit negotiations. People still cling to the idea that the Tories are going to deliver on whatever policy it was that moved them to vote for Leave. It won`t last, of course, because the Tories are in an entirely contradictory position, which makes it impossible for them to satisfy everybody. The most they can hope for is to satisfy Murdoch - and that would be another turn-off for most voters.kle4 said:
Yes, but the question is why the 18-24 year old ones are the only group who are so appalled - you presumably think they are nasty to everyone, except pensioners, but only the18-24 year olds are sticking with Corbyn. Nastiness of the Tories, even if true, does not explain it on its own.PClipp said:
Or it could be that they are utterly appalled by the nasty Tory policies and Tory attitudes that go with them. To such an extent, that even Mr Corbyn`s Labour Party seems preferable.FrancisUrquhart said:
Aren't old enough to remember the 70s, when most of Jezza's policies were last tested to destruction.kle4 said:
Even as someone who does not fully believe the high tory figures, I have to ask - what are the 18-24s seeing in Corbyn that they still put Labour above the Tories?0 -
Much of politics comes down to (perceived) self-interest, and there isn't any doubt as to which age group the Tories have long been pitching towards. That young people aren't impressed with the resulting deal isn't much of a surprise.PClipp said:
I think the younger age groups are repelled by the Tories, because they are being hit by them here and now. Older age groups are still giving the Tories the benefit of the doubt over the Brexit negotiations. People still cling to the idea that the Tories are going to deliver on whatever policy it was that moved them to vote for Leave. It won`t last, of course, because the Tories are in an entirely contradictory position, which makes it impossible for them to satisfy everybody. The most they can hope for is to satisfy Murdoch - and that would be another turn-off for most voters.kle4 said:
Yes, but the question is why the 18-24 year old ones are the only group who are so appalled - you presumably think they are nasty to everyone, except pensioners, but only the18-24 year olds are sticking with Corbyn. Nastiness of the Tories, even if true, does not explain it on its own.PClipp said:
Or it could be that they are utterly appalled by the nasty Tory policies and Tory attitudes that go with them. To such an extent, that even Mr Corbyn`s Labour Party seems preferable.FrancisUrquhart said:
Aren't old enough to remember the 70s, when most of Jezza's policies were last tested to destruction.kle4 said:
Even as someone who does not fully believe the high tory figures, I have to ask - what are the 18-24s seeing in Corbyn that they still put Labour above the Tories?0 -
Charles was surprised that the EMA is an EU agency so take his comments with a pinch of salt.rkrkrk said:
I would be stunned if the EMA stays in London if we leave it. As i said on a previous thread... We might as well ask them to move the European parliament here.Charles said:<
(I wouldn't be surprised to see the UK remain in the EMA and it to remain in London. Or to have a mutual recognition arrangement. There's little merit to having a separate approval process)
Even Jeremy Hunt thinks it's going and we are leaving the EMA.0 -
It is not bullshit at all - those higher tax rates were there under Heath as well! The Investment Income Surcharge was a 15% surcharge on investment income in excess of £1500per annum - a not insignificant amount at the time. It was added to the individual's top rate of income tax - ie if he paid Income Tax at 33% he faced an IIS of 48%.FrancisUrquhart said:
It was to do with union power....justin124 said:
The 3Day Week was under Ted Heath and tax rates were little different from what they were five years later - indeed VAT was reduced to 8% under Labour.FrancisUrquhart said:
More seriously, I think it is probably a bit of both. Even people in their late 30s / 40s are well aware of the tales of the likes of crazy high tax rates, 3 day weeks, etc and what a disaster that was.Philip_Thompson said:
Sorry to break it to you but even forty year olds aren't old enough to remember the 70s!
More likely 18 to 24 year olds aren't yet used to working to pay their own way and having to understand the importance of keeping spending within control in order to pay your rent/mortgage and put food on the table etc yet.
People in their early 20s are less aware that at one point in recent history we did have a situation where the government took basically all of individuals money over x amount, and even if they are they can never see themselves earning that amount.
As for tax rates, bullshit...There were 10 different rates of income tax in those days, going up to 83% on incomes above 20,000, plus a 98% band for investment income.0 -
How many right-wing teachers are there? How many right-wing lecturers?PClipp said:
I think the younger age groups are repelled by the Tories, because they are being hit by them here and now. Older age groups are still giving the Tories the benefit of the doubt over the Brexit negotiations. People still cling to the idea that the Tories are going to deliver on whatever policy it was that moved them to vote for Leave. It won`t last, of course, because the Tories are in an entirely contradictory position, which makes it impossible for them to satisfy everybody. The most they can hope for is to satisfy Murdoch - and that would be another turn-off for most voters.kle4 said:
Yes, but the question is why the 18-24 year old ones are the only group who are so appalled - you presumably think they are nasty to everyone, except pensioners, but only the18-24 year olds are sticking with Corbyn. Nastiness of the Tories, even if true, does not explain it on its own.PClipp said:
Or it could be that they are utterly appalled by the nasty Tory policies and Tory attitudes that go with them. To such an extent, that even Mr Corbyn`s Labour Party seems preferable.FrancisUrquhart said:
Aren't old enough to remember the 70s, when most of Jezza's policies were last tested to destruction.kle4 said:
Even as someone who does not fully believe the high tory figures, I have to ask - what are the 18-24s seeing in Corbyn that they still put Labour above the Tories?
The education system drills it into kids that the Tories are nasty and evil. University is little better but fortunately it's about the age you start to think for yourself.
Once you're out in the big wide world you realise the solutions offered by the left are naive and simplistic at best and begin the inexorable journey towards more pragmatic and less ideologically driven answers to the problems of the day.
0 -
The Brexit Tories are doing better with today's 18 to 24s than Hague's Tories did with my generation when we were 18 to 24. Yet a few years later the children who grew up under Thatcher and became Blair's biggest supporters now back the Tories. Give it time and eventually today's 18 to 24s will be the futures Tories. It's the circle of political life.PClipp said:
I think the younger age groups are repelled by the Tories, because they are being hit by them here and now. Older age groups are still giving the Tories the benefit of the doubt over the Brexit negotiations. People still cling to the idea that the Tories are going to deliver on whatever policy it was that moved them to vote for Leave. It won`t last, of course, because the Tories are in an entirely contradictory position, which makes it impossible for them to satisfy everybody. The most they can hope for is to satisfy Murdoch - and that would be another turn-off for most voters.kle4 said:
Yes, but the question is why the 18-24 year old ones are the only group who are so appalled - you presumably think they are nasty to everyone, except pensioners, but only the18-24 year olds are sticking with Corbyn. Nastiness of the Tories, even if true, does not explain it on its own.PClipp said:
Or it could be that they are utterly appalled by the nasty Tory policies and Tory attitudes that go with them. To such an extent, that even Mr Corbyn`s Labour Party seems preferable.FrancisUrquhart said:
Aren't old enough to remember the 70s, when most of Jezza's policies were last tested to destruction.kle4 said:
Even as someone who does not fully believe the high tory figures, I have to ask - what are the 18-24s seeing in Corbyn that they still put Labour above the Tories?0 -
"Local elections, national worries: tough task for Labour's doorstep troops
Whether it’s Clive Lewis canvassing in Norfolk or John McDonnell chatting to pensioners in Coventry, the party’s MPs are trying to spread a positive message in the run-up to 4 May vote"
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/17/local-elections-national-worries-tough-task-for-labours-doorstep-troops-clive-lewis-john-mcdonnell0 -
If we leave the EMA, yes.rkrkrk said:
I would be stunned if the EMA stays in London if we leave it. As i said on a previous thread... We might as well ask them to move the European parliament here.Charles said:<
(I wouldn't be surprised to see the UK remain in the EMA and it to remain in London. Or to have a mutual recognition arrangement. There's little merit to having a separate approval process)
Even Jeremy Hunt thinks it's going and we are leaving the EMA.
But there is a decent rationale for remaining a member of the EMA (even if only an associate member). If we are not a member, then I'd agree, it won't be located in London (even if we have MRP).
If the UK remains a member/associate member then there is little rationale for crystalising a Eur 250m liability for moving.0 -
Good bet. Odds now cut to 4.3 (someone checked betfair!) but not before I got £100 on.peter_from_putney said:*** FREE MONEY ALERT *** FREE MONEY ALERT *** FREE MONEY ALERT ***
Back Fillon to win the French Presidential Election with Sportingbet at 5.50
Lay him to lose the French Presidential Election with Betfair Exchange at 4.50 = 4.74 after 5% commission.
Roll up, roll up, this can't last!
DYOR.0 -
You seem to think this is a killer point. I made a mistake. Get over it.williamglenn said:
Charles was surprised that the EMA is an EU agency so take his comments with a pinch of salt.rkrkrk said:
I would be stunned if the EMA stays in London if we leave it. As i said on a previous thread... We might as well ask them to move the European parliament here.Charles said:<
(I wouldn't be surprised to see the UK remain in the EMA and it to remain in London. Or to have a mutual recognition arrangement. There's little merit to having a separate approval process)
Even Jeremy Hunt thinks it's going and we are leaving the EMA.
I'm not involved in the regulatory approval side of things, although obviously I understand how the process works from a risk perspective. The precise constitution of the regulators is absolutely irrelevant to what I do.0 -
I'd guess that most of the 18-25s who actually go and vote would give the Tories a lead there as well.kle4 said:Long way to go before it looks winnable, even if the initial canvass data is right.
Nonsense, no one ever did that *shuffles nervously*.Andy_Cooke said:
Possibly.rottenborough said:
Bermondsey?Andy_Cooke said:
Well, not from 2.5 weeks, but from a month out in Richmond Park, it was found to be 56% Zac, 29% Olney.Essexit said:Assuming the canvassing data is correct, what examples are there - by-election or otherwise - of a 20% deficit being overturned in two and a half weeks?
The LDs may be on course for an impressive increase in vote share and a clear second, but no more than that.
http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/richmond-park-election-voting-key-issue-results/
"Bermondsey was one of the first by-elections to be extensively polled. The polls showed, at first, that the Labour vote was substantially down on the 1979 election figures, but that none of the rival candidates were particularly close."
(Wikipedia)
The Richmond Park poll stuck in the memory because when it was discussed on here, quite a few commentators responded by calling the contest for Zac immediately and dismissing the Lib Dems chances.
Even as someone who does not fully believe the high tory figures, I have to ask - what are the 18-24s seeing in Corbyn that they still put Labour above the Tories?TheScreamingEagles said:Re that YouGov.
A few interesting points
The Tories lead every age group except the 18-24s
Tories are 49% ahead of Lab with the overs 65s,
Overs 65s VI: Con 61, Lab 12, LD 11, UKIP 11
So Labour are a gnat's fart away from being fourth with the overs 65s
Tories lead Labour with the working classes by 20%
Scottish subsample klaxon
SNP 44, Com 26, Lab 13. LD 10
Tories also lead Labour in the North by 3%
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/04/17/voting-intention-conservatives-44-labour-23-12-13-/0 -
Mr Clipp is seven years old.Ishmael_Z said:
Which policies and attitudes are those, and why is their nastiness relatively invisible to those of 25 and above?PClipp said:
Or it could be that they are utterly appalled by the nasty Tory policies and Tory attitudes that go with them. To such an extent, that even Mr Corbyn`s Labour Party seems preferable.FrancisUrquhart said:
Aren't old enough to remember the 70s, when most of Jezza's policies were last tested to destruction.kle4 said:
Even as someone who does not fully believe the high tory figures, I have to ask - what are the 18-24s seeing in Corbyn that they still put Labour above the Tories?0
