Skip to content

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Previews : Maundy Thursday 2017 (T -3 weeks

SystemSystem Posts: 12,752
edited April 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Previews : Maundy Thursday 2017 (T -3 weeks until Locals 2017)

 

Read the full story here


Comments

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited April 2017
    First like Anyone But Le Pen.

    FPT Re:France
    rcs1000 said:

    Cyan said:

    A Harris poll gives Macron his biggest lead ever. If people start asking who is best placed to defeat Macron in the second round, what's the answer? It could be Mélenchon.

    The top 30% of the population will never vote for Mélenchon. They would rather vote for Le Pen. They would rather vote for Pétain. Why? Because of Mélenchon's tax policy. That leaves the other 70%.

    Macron 24%
    Le Pen 22%
    Fillon 20%
    Mélenchon 19%
    Hamon 8%
    Dupont-Aignan 4%

    I wonder if the fifth and sixth placed candidates might fade somewhat into the finish, as people try to avoid a wasted vote. ND-A's voters would probably split between MLP and Fillon, while Hamon would probably go between Macron and Melenchon.

    Just a thought.
    It is quite remarkable that the official Socialist party candidate, the candidate of the party of the President less we forget, is polling fifth and spoke about as a wasted vote. While the Socialists have come third before, I can't recall this happening in my lifetime at least.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,474
    Piddle Valley, come on, that's a made up name?

    That's made me chuckle all day, reminiscent of the 'public' toilets at Glastonbury
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,317
    FPT.
    chestnut said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Toms said:

    Just rambling.

    I doubt most Americans give a second thought to the question of the size of China's economy.
    Certainly the considerations that the Chinese are talented and outnumber Americans by at least a factor of five must register.

    I don't suppose this is as difficult as here coming to terms with Britain's loss of its empire has been. Did that play a part in the Brexit vote?

    The generations that ran the Empire had gone by 2016. So, I doubt if it was an issue.
    Although there are some voices in UKIP that seem very keen to resurrect the Commonwealth as a trading bloc, which I consider optimistic given the two largest members are nuclear armed adversaries.
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Toms said:

    Just rambling.

    I doubt most Americans give a second thought to the question of the size of China's economy.
    Certainly the considerations that the Chinese are talented and outnumber Americans by at least a factor of five must register.

    I don't suppose this is as difficult as here coming to terms with Britain's loss of its empire has been. Did that play a part in the Brexit vote?

    The generations that ran the Empire had gone by 2016. So, I doubt if it was an issue.
    Although there are some voices in UKIP that seem very keen to resurrect the Commonwealth as a trading bloc, which I consider optimistic given the two largest members are nuclear armed adversaries.
    The EU seem to be falling over themselves to try and attract Canada, Australia and India.

    Our historic relationships concern them. Likewise, our links with the US.

    They know what the export market share was for these countries and Europe in the UK before we joined the EU.

    A reversion to those shares is literally hundreds of billions walking away.
    We're not really leaving anything. Brexit is just a more muscular version of Cameron's attempt to renegotiate the terms of being a modern European country, but in reality we won't get much further than he did.

    If Australia can negotiate a good deal with the EU alongside the deal that Canada has, then good on them. It's worth much more to Australia than a deal with a bunch of uppity Poms who still think they ought to run the place.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,753
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Piddle Valley, come on, that's a made up name?

    That's made me chuckle all day, reminiscent of the 'public' toilets at Glastonbury

    Whether it's made up or not, it's a pisspoor name.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Piddle Valley, come on, that's a made up name?

    That's made me chuckle all day, reminiscent of the 'public' toilets at Glastonbury

    I know you're smiling, but English place names are pure poetry. And they are studied and convey information about folk and culture movements. Just take Google maps and amplify any area. Amazing.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,317
    edited April 2017
    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Piddle Valley, come on, that's a made up name?

    That's made me chuckle all day, reminiscent of the 'public' toilets at Glastonbury

    Whether it's made up or not, it's a pisspoor name.
    Presumably the yellow peril are a shoo-in? (Or would be if they had a candidate.)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,084
    edited April 2017
    chestnut said:

    The EU seem to be falling over themselves to try and attract Canada, Australia and India.

    Our historic relationships concern them. Likewise, our links with the US.

    They know what the export market share was for these countries and Europe in the UK before we joined the EU.

    A reversion to those shares is literally hundreds of billions walking away.

    To be fair to the EU, since Pierre Moscovici took over the trade brief the EU has been much more avowedly free trade. Under his watch, the EU has signed FTAs with two of the world's dozen largest economies - South Korea and Canada. They also abolished almost all tariffs* between the EU and a dozen of the poorest African countries.

    Discussions with Mexico and Japan are also fairly advanced, and I wouldn't be surprised if the EU rapidly came to agreement with the former country. (Which is keen to diversify its exports for some reason.)

    * Although there are still some egregious and absurd "protections" in there, such as of the flower industry.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,474
    Toms said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Piddle Valley, come on, that's a made up name?

    That's made me chuckle all day, reminiscent of the 'public' toilets at Glastonbury

    I know you're smiling, but English place names are pure poetry. And they are studied and convey information about folk and culture movements. Just take Google maps and amplify any area. Amazing.
    Oh I love rude place names like this

    https://www.indy100.com/article/these-are-the-ten-rudest-place-names-in-the-uk--W1at5pZXmW
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,753
    If you're looking for ironic names, Upper Slaughter in Gloucestershire didn't lose a single life in either world war, one of only 14 'doubly thankful' parishes in England.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,796
    williamglenn said:

    FPT.

    chestnut said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Toms said:

    Just rambling.

    I doubt most Americans give a second thought to the question of the size of China's economy.
    Certainly the considerations that the Chinese are talented and outnumber Americans by at least a factor of five must register.

    I don't suppose this is as difficult as here coming to terms with Britain's loss of its empire has been. Did that play a part in the Brexit vote?

    The generations that ran the Empire had gone by 2016. So, I doubt if it was an issue.
    Although there are some voices in UKIP that seem very keen to resurrect the Commonwealth as a trading bloc, which I consider optimistic given the two largest members are nuclear armed adversaries.
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Toms said:

    Just rambling.

    I doubt most Americans give a second thought to the question of the size of China's economy.
    Certainly the considerations that the Chinese are talented and outnumber Americans by at least a factor of five must register.

    I don't suppose this is as difficult as here coming to terms with Britain's loss of its empire has been. Did that play a part in the Brexit vote?

    The generations that ran the Empire had gone by 2016. So, I doubt if it was an issue.
    Although there are some voices in UKIP that seem very keen to resurrect the Commonwealth as a trading bloc, which I consider optimistic given the two largest members are nuclear armed adversaries.
    The EU seem to be falling over themselves to try and attract Canada, Australia and India.

    Our historic relationships concern them. Likewise, our links with the US.

    They know what the export market share was for these countries and Europe in the UK before we joined the EU.

    A reversion to those shares is literally hundreds of billions walking away.
    We're not really leaving anything. Brexit is just a more muscular version of Cameron's attempt to renegotiate the terms of being a modern European country, but in reality we won't get much further than he did.

    If Australia can negotiate a good deal with the EU alongside the deal that Canada has, then good on them. It's worth much more to Australia than a deal with a bunch of uppity Poms who still think they ought to run the place.
    You need to come to terms with the fact that we're leaving the EU. We have no desire to merge ourselves into a nation called Europe.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 75,753
    edited April 2017
    williamglenn said:

    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Piddle Valley, come on, that's a made up name?

    That's made me chuckle all day, reminiscent of the 'public' toilets at Glastonbury

    Whether it's made up or not, it's a pisspoor name.
    Presumably the yellow peril are a shoo-in? (Or would be if they had a candidate.)
    The wets in the party would be a pour-fect fit!

    (OK, I'll stop making bad puns now because I'm off to bed. Good night everyone.)
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,796
    Toms said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Piddle Valley, come on, that's a made up name?

    That's made me chuckle all day, reminiscent of the 'public' toilets at Glastonbury

    I know you're smiling, but English place names are pure poetry. And they are studied and convey information about folk and culture movements. Just take Google maps and amplify any area. Amazing.
    Whitney Scrotum.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,084
    Not even a LibDem candidate this week?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,317
    rcs1000 said:

    chestnut said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Toms said:

    Just rambling.

    I doubt most Americans give a second thought to the question of the size of China's economy.
    Certainly the considerations that the Chinese are talented and outnumber Americans by at least a factor of five must register.

    I don't suppose this is as difficult as here coming to terms with Britain's loss of its empire has been. Did that play a part in the Brexit vote?

    The generations that ran the Empire had gone by 2016. So, I doubt if it was an issue.
    Although there are some voices in UKIP that seem very keen to resurrect the Commonwealth as a trading bloc, which I consider optimistic given the two largest members are nuclear armed adversaries.
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Toms said:

    Just rambling.

    I doubt most Americans give a second thought to the question of the size of China's economy.
    Certainly the considerations that the Chinese are talented and outnumber Americans by at least a factor of five must register.

    I don't suppose this is as difficult as here coming to terms with Britain's loss of its empire has been. Did that play a part in the Brexit vote?

    The generations that ran the Empire had gone by 2016. So, I doubt if it was an issue.
    Although there are some voices in UKIP that seem very keen to resurrect the Commonwealth as a trading bloc, which I consider optimistic given the two largest members are nuclear armed adversaries.
    The EU seem to be falling over themselves to try and attract Canada, Australia and India.

    Our historic relationships concern them. Likewise, our links with the US.

    They know what the export market share was for these countries and Europe in the UK before we joined the EU.

    A reversion to those shares is literally hundreds of billions walking away.
    To be fair to the EU, since Pierre Moscovici took over the trade brief the EU has been much more avowedly free trade.
    Err, he doesn't have that portfolio. It was Karel De Gucht who signed the South Korea deal and now Cecilia Malmstrom is doing a similarly good job.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,066
    edited April 2017
    williamglenn said:

    FPT.

    chestnut said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Toms said:

    Just rambling.

    I doubt most Americans give a second thought to the question of the size of China's economy.
    Certainly the considerations that the Chinese are talented and outnumber Americans by at least a factor of five must register.

    I don't suppose this is as difficult as here coming to terms with Britain's loss of its empire has been. Did that play a part in the Brexit vote?

    The generations that ran the Empire had gone by 2016. So, I doubt if it was an issue.
    Although there are some voices in UKIP that seem very keen to resurrect the Commonwealth as a trading bloc, which I consider optimistic given the two largest members are nuclear armed adversaries.
    rcs1000 said:

    Sean_F said:

    Toms said:

    Just rambling.

    I doubt most Americans give a second thought to the question of the size of China's economy.
    Certainly the considerations that the Chinese are talented and outnumber Americans by at least a factor of five must register.

    I don't suppose this is as difficult as here coming to terms with Britain's loss of its empire has been. Did that play a part in the Brexit vote?

    The generations that ran the Empire had gone by 2016. So, I doubt if it was an issue.
    Although there are some voices in UKIP that seem very keen to resurrect the Commonwealth as a trading bloc, which I consider optimistic given the two largest members are nuclear armed adversaries.
    The EU seem to be falling over themselves to try and attract Canada, Australia and India.

    Our historic relationships concern them. Likewise, our links with the US.

    They know what the export market share was for these countries and Europe in the UK before we joined the EU.

    A reversion to those shares is literally hundreds of billions walking away.
    We're not really leaving anything. Brexit is just a more muscular version of Cameron's attempt to renegotiate the terms of being a modern European country, but in reality we won't get much further than he did.

    If Australia can negotiate a good deal with the EU alongside the deal that Canada has, then good on them. It's worth much more to Australia than a deal with a bunch of uppity Poms who still think they ought to run the place.
    If Australia can negotiate Free Trade Agreements with barely more than a third of the UK population and less than half our gdp why cannot the UK do the same?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,521
    Toms said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Piddle Valley, come on, that's a made up name?

    That's made me chuckle all day, reminiscent of the 'public' toilets at Glastonbury

    I know you're smiling, but English place names are pure poetry. And they are studied and convey information about folk and culture movements. Just take Google maps and amplify any area. Amazing.
    I live doing that. It's not even the rude ones I enjoy the most. Just look at some of the ones near the Piddle Valley (quite near Cerne Abbas and it's famous giant) - Minterne Magna, Godmanstone, Glanvilles Wootton, Muckleford, Melbury Bubb, Toller Porcorum, Bradford Peverell< Winterbourne Clenston.

    God bless this country.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,521
    ydoethur said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Piddle Valley, come on, that's a made up name?

    That's made me chuckle all day, reminiscent of the 'public' toilets at Glastonbury

    Whether it's made up or not, it's a pisspoor name.
    *slow clap*
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 124,474
    rcs1000 said:

    Not even a LibDem candidate this week?

    I'm sure there's a gag to be made that Mark Oaten would be the ideal candidate in Piddle Valley.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,521
    As I recall the pub in Piddletrenthide, or one of the other piddles, was, of course, the Piddle Inn, with a picture of a small animal in a chamber pot.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,371
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Piddle Valley, come on, that's a made up name?

    That's made me chuckle all day, reminiscent of the 'public' toilets at Glastonbury

    You should visit this pub there:

    http://www.piddleinn.co.uk/
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    kle4 said:

    Toms said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Piddle Valley, come on, that's a made up name?

    That's made me chuckle all day, reminiscent of the 'public' toilets at Glastonbury

    I know you're smiling, but English place names are pure poetry. And they are studied and convey information about folk and culture movements. Just take Google maps and amplify any area. Amazing.
    I live doing that. It's not even the rude ones I enjoy the most. Just look at some of the ones near the Piddle Valley (quite near Cerne Abbas and it's famous giant) - Minterne Magna, Godmanstone, Glanvilles Wootton, Muckleford, Melbury Bubb, Toller Porcorum, Bradford Peverell< Winterbourne Clenston.

    God bless this country.
    Seconded. You'd have to have a heart of stone to be unmoved. I seem to remember a site called "hetty peglers tump" in the west country. It just goes on.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,521
    Honestly, Coulby Newham would be in with a good shout as the most charming ward name on a regular by-election night, but up against some stiff competition tonight.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,796
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Not even a LibDem candidate this week?

    I'm sure there's a gag to be made that Mark Oaten would be the ideal candidate in Piddle Valley.
    Shitterton is located in Piddle Valley.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,521
    Toms said:

    kle4 said:

    Toms said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Piddle Valley, come on, that's a made up name?

    That's made me chuckle all day, reminiscent of the 'public' toilets at Glastonbury

    I know you're smiling, but English place names are pure poetry. And they are studied and convey information about folk and culture movements. Just take Google maps and amplify any area. Amazing.
    I live doing that. It's not even the rude ones I enjoy the most. Just look at some of the ones near the Piddle Valley (quite near Cerne Abbas and it's famous giant) - Minterne Magna, Godmanstone, Glanvilles Wootton, Muckleford, Melbury Bubb, Toller Porcorum, Bradford Peverell< Winterbourne Clenston.

    God bless this country.
    Seconded. You'd have to have a heart of stone to be unmoved. I seem to remember a site called "hetty peglers tump" in the west country. It just goes on.
    Tiny little places off the road from Puddletown it seems - Tolpuddle, Affpuddle, Briantspuddle and, er, Throop. It could be done all night, but sadly should not.

    Sometimes I wonder if there are some genuinely ridiculous ones round my area, but because I've grown up with them I don't notice.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Many of the beautiful name places in England are in the North-East, some of them French.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    kle4 said:

    Toms said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Piddle Valley, come on, that's a made up name?

    That's made me chuckle all day, reminiscent of the 'public' toilets at Glastonbury

    I know you're smiling, but English place names are pure poetry. And they are studied and convey information about folk and culture movements. Just take Google maps and amplify any area. Amazing.
    I live doing that. It's not even the rude ones I enjoy the most. Just look at some of the ones near the Piddle Valley (quite near Cerne Abbas and it's famous giant) - Minterne Magna, Godmanstone, Glanvilles Wootton, Muckleford, Melbury Bubb, Toller Porcorum, Bradford Peverell< Winterbourne Clenston.

    God bless this country.
    Godmanstone is the only living we have left (my cousin Toby is in situ) although we still have input into a few other places
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,084
    HYUFD said:



    If Australia can negotiate Free Trade Agreements with barely more than a third of the UK population and less than half our gdp why cannot the UK do the same?

    It is worth remembering that it is much easier to sign FTAs when you have a limited set of non-competing exports. Australia exports raw materials: coal, etc., (see http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/aus/#Exports), so most countries do not see Australia as a major threat to domestic industries.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    chestnut said:

    The EU seem to be falling over themselves to try and attract Canada, Australia and India.

    Our historic relationships concern them. Likewise, our links with the US.

    They know what the export market share was for these countries and Europe in the UK before we joined the EU.

    A reversion to those shares is literally hundreds of billions walking away.

    We do more trade with Belgium than we do with Canada, New Zealand and Australia combined. We currently do about £4.5bn with India.

    I can get that lot to add up to about £16bn. Where you get a figure of "... hundreds of billions..." baffles me.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,281
    chestnut said:

    HYUFD said:

    Cyan said:

    A Harris poll gives Macron his biggest lead ever. If people start asking who is best placed to defeat Macron in the second round, what's the answer? It could be Mélenchon.

    The top 30% of the population will never vote for Mélenchon. They would rather vote for Le Pen. They would rather vote for Pétain. Why? Because of Mélenchon's tax policy. That leaves the other 70%.

    Macron 24%
    Le Pen 22%
    Fillon 20%
    Mélenchon 19%
    Hamon 8%
    Dupont-Aignan 4%

    Opinionway and Ifop both have Le Pen ahead and Melenchon is least likely to make the runoff of the top 4
    1st to 4th are margin of error numbrs.

    Nothing more than a hunch, but it 'feels' like Macron will lose. Where's the momentum?
    Macron's poll floor is 22.5%, and his average is almost identical to Le Pen's.
    Melenchon's big problem is that he has not polled 20% in ANY poll yet. He has some momentum but it isn't nearly enough as of yet - whereas Fillon's polling has been ok but he hasn't really gone up

    Here's the polling since the 2nd debate.

    https://twitter.com/Pulpstar/status/852635407493804032
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,066
    edited April 2017
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:



    If Australia can negotiate Free Trade Agreements with barely more than a third of the UK population and less than half our gdp why cannot the UK do the same?

    It is worth remembering that it is much easier to sign FTAs when you have a limited set of non-competing exports. Australia exports raw materials: coal, etc., (see http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/aus/#Exports), so most countries do not see Australia as a major threat to domestic industries.
    Depends if you are producing coal or not and 73% of the Australian economy is made up of services so not that much different to the UK. If Australia can survive as an independent nation then so can we
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Australia.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Piddle Valley, come on, that's a made up name?

    That's made me chuckle all day, reminiscent of the 'public' toilets at Glastonbury

    You should visit this pub there:

    http://www.piddleinn.co.uk/
    There's a little village near Oswestry in Shropshire called Knockin. It has a post office that doubles as a shop. There's a sign on it that proclaims it as ........ yup that's right.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    There is a rumour that some of the signals feeds picked up by Western intelligence agencies includes Trump himself discussing the elections with Russians who would have been under watch.

    Only a rumour. Other pieces are reportedly definitely coming together as per the Guardian's reporting.

    Question is, the FBI usually have a high threshold to go to prosecution, is what is now ca jigsaw that resembles a picture enough?
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 18,327
    edited April 2017
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:



    If Australia can negotiate Free Trade Agreements with barely more than a third of the UK population and less than half our gdp why cannot the UK do the same?

    It is worth remembering that it is much easier to sign FTAs when you have a limited set of non-competing exports. Australia exports raw materials: coal, etc., (see http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/aus/#Exports), so most countries do not see Australia as a major threat to domestic industries.
    There's no reason why the EU wouldn't sign an FTA with the UK. It's to their advantage. FTAs tend to be strong on goods where we are relatively weak and the EU strong; FTAs are weak on services where we are strong and the EU is weak. We would get more out of membership of the Single Market. Theresa May has made a potential EU refusal easier for them by ruling out the SM.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,393
    For some reason Snodland does it for me.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,066
    edited April 2017
    https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/852274067138850817
    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/852244061889200132
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,066
    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:



    If Australia can negotiate Free Trade Agreements with barely more than a third of the UK population and less than half our gdp why cannot the UK do the same?

    It is worth remembering that it is much easier to sign FTAs when you have a limited set of non-competing exports. Australia exports raw materials: coal, etc., (see http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/aus/#Exports), so most countries do not see Australia as a major threat to domestic industries.
    There's no reason why the EU wouldn't sign an FTA with the UK. It's to their advantage. FTAs tend to be strong on goods where we are relatively weak and the EU strong; FTAs are weak on services where we are strong and the EU is weak. We would get more out of membership of the Single Market. Theresa May has made a potential EU refusal easier for them by ruling out the SM.
    It is the free movement issue which meant the single market was a non starter for now, Australia never had a trading arrangement requiring free movement of people
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,393
    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/852274067138850817
    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/852244061889200132

    If she's a Remainer and doesn't like the cover why did she give it more publicity and boost its sales? Not the sharpest Remainer in the box.

    Unless she is signaling something or other.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,317
    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:



    If Australia can negotiate Free Trade Agreements with barely more than a third of the UK population and less than half our gdp why cannot the UK do the same?

    It is worth remembering that it is much easier to sign FTAs when you have a limited set of non-competing exports. Australia exports raw materials: coal, etc., (see http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/aus/#Exports), so most countries do not see Australia as a major threat to domestic industries.
    There's no reason why the EU wouldn't sign an FTA with the UK. It's to their advantage. FTAs tend to be strong on goods where we are relatively weak and the EU strong; FTAs are weak on services where we are strong and the EU is weak. We would get more out of membership of the Single Market. Theresa May has made a potential EU refusal easier for them by ruling out the SM.
    It is the free movement issue which meant the single market was a non starter for now, Australia never had a trading arrangement requiring free movement of people
    Such a non starter that May and Johnson are signalling they want it to continue for years?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,084
    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:



    If Australia can negotiate Free Trade Agreements with barely more than a third of the UK population and less than half our gdp why cannot the UK do the same?

    It is worth remembering that it is much easier to sign FTAs when you have a limited set of non-competing exports. Australia exports raw materials: coal, etc., (see http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/aus/#Exports), so most countries do not see Australia as a major threat to domestic industries.
    Depends if you are producing coal or not and 73% of the Australian economy is made up of services so not that much different to the UK. If Australia can survive as an independent nation then so can we
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Australia.
    Yes. But you can't export hairdressing. Composition of exports matters.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,066
    williamglenn said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:



    If Australia can negotiate Free Trade Agreements with barely more than a third of the UK population and less than half our gdp why cannot the UK do the same?

    It is worth remembering that it is much easier to sign FTAs when you have a limited set of non-competing exports. Australia exports raw materials: coal, etc., (see http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/aus/#Exports), so most countries do not see Australia as a major threat to domestic industries.
    There's no reason why the EU wouldn't sign an FTA with the UK. It's to their advantage. FTAs tend to be strong on goods where we are relatively weak and the EU strong; FTAs are weak on services where we are strong and the EU is weak. We would get more out of membership of the Single Market. Theresa May has made a potential EU refusal easier for them by ruling out the SM.
    It is the free movement issue which meant the single market was a non starter for now, Australia never had a trading arrangement requiring free movement of people
    Such a non starter that May and Johnson are signalling they want it to continue for years?
    Potentially for a transition period which would last for 3 years at the most
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,393
    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:



    If Australia can negotiate Free Trade Agreements with barely more than a third of the UK population and less than half our gdp why cannot the UK do the same?

    It is worth remembering that it is much easier to sign FTAs when you have a limited set of non-competing exports. Australia exports raw materials: coal, etc., (see http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/aus/#Exports), so most countries do not see Australia as a major threat to domestic industries.
    There's no reason why the EU wouldn't sign an FTA with the UK. It's to their advantage. FTAs tend to be strong on goods where we are relatively weak and the EU strong; FTAs are weak on services where we are strong and the EU is weak. We would get more out of membership of the Single Market. Theresa May has made a potential EU refusal easier for them by ruling out the SM.
    It is the free movement issue which meant the single market was a non starter for now, Australia never had a trading arrangement requiring free movement of people
    Such a non starter that May and Johnson are signalling they want it to continue for years?
    Potentially for a transition period which would last for 3 years at the most
    Unless an EU-loving govt was elected during the transition period.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,317
    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:



    If Australia can negotiate Free Trade Agreements with barely more than a third of the UK population and less than half our gdp why cannot the UK do the same?

    It is worth remembering that it is much easier to sign FTAs when you have a limited set of non-competing exports. Australia exports raw materials: coal, etc., (see http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/aus/#Exports), so most countries do not see Australia as a major threat to domestic industries.
    There's no reason why the EU wouldn't sign an FTA with the UK. It's to their advantage. FTAs tend to be strong on goods where we are relatively weak and the EU strong; FTAs are weak on services where we are strong and the EU is weak. We would get more out of membership of the Single Market. Theresa May has made a potential EU refusal easier for them by ruling out the SM.
    It is the free movement issue which meant the single market was a non starter for now, Australia never had a trading arrangement requiring free movement of people
    Such a non starter that May and Johnson are signalling they want it to continue for years?
    Potentially for a transition period which would last for 3 years at the most
    Yeah, yeah... You've moved on a bit from endless repetition that May will demand a job offer requirement before letting people in.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,066
    TOPPING said:

    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:



    If Australia can negotiate Free Trade Agreements with barely more than a third of the UK population and less than half our gdp why cannot the UK do the same?

    It is worth remembering that it is much easier to sign FTAs when you have a limited set of non-competing exports. Australia exports raw materials: coal, etc., (see http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/aus/#Exports), so most countries do not see Australia as a major threat to domestic industries.
    There's no reason why the EU wouldn't sign an FTA with the UK. It's to their advantage. FTAs tend to be strong on goods where we are relatively weak and the EU strong; FTAs are weak on services where we are strong and the EU is weak. We would get more out of membership of the Single Market. Theresa May has made a potential EU refusal easier for them by ruling out the SM.
    It is the free movement issue which meant the single market was a non starter for now, Australia never had a trading arrangement requiring free movement of people
    Such a non starter that May and Johnson are signalling they want it to continue for years?
    Potentially for a transition period which would last for 3 years at the most
    Unless an EU-loving govt was elected during the transition period.
    Yes, 'vote for us for unfettered free movement and continued EU budget contributions without limit', a votewinning platform if ever I heard one!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/paulsinha/status/852477388495749126
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,066
    edited April 2017
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:



    If Australia can negotiate Free Trade Agreements with barely more than a third of the UK population and less than half our gdp why cannot the UK do the same?

    It is worth remembering that it is much easier to sign FTAs when you have a limited set of non-competing exports. Australia exports raw materials: coal, etc., (see http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/aus/#Exports), so most countries do not see Australia as a major threat to domestic industries.
    Depends if you are producing coal or not and 73% of the Australian economy is made up of services so not that much different to the UK. If Australia can survive as an independent nation then so can we
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Australia.
    Yes. But you can't export hairdressing. Composition of exports matters.
    Australia is a service dominated economy able to survive on its own as the UK is a service dominated economy able to survive on its own, except over double the size of the former
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,066
    williamglenn said:

    HYUFD said:

    williamglenn said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:



    If Australia can negotiate Free Trade Agreements with barely more than a third of the UK population and less than half our gdp why cannot the UK do the same?

    It is worth remembering that it is much easier to sign FTAs when you have a limited set of non-competing exports. Australia exports raw materials: coal, etc., (see http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/aus/#Exports), so most countries do not see Australia as a major threat to domestic industries.
    There's no reason why the EU wouldn't sign an FTA with the UK. It's to their advantage. FTAs tend to be strong on goods where we are relatively weak and the EU strong; FTAs are weak on services where we are strong and the EU is weak. We would get more out of membership of the Single Market. Theresa May has made a potential EU refusal easier for them by ruling out the SM.
    It is the free movement issue which meant the single market was a non starter for now, Australia never had a trading arrangement requiring free movement of people
    Such a non starter that May and Johnson are signalling they want it to continue for years?
    Potentially for a transition period which would last for 3 years at the most
    Yeah, yeah... You've moved on a bit from endless repetition that May will demand a job offer requirement before letting people in.
    She still will ultimately, transition period or not
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/paulsinha/status/852477388495749126

    just saw that on twitter :)
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,411
    Some interesting things in here:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/internationalmigration/articles/migrationandthelabourmarketuk/2016#what-industry-and-occupations-did-non-uk-nationals-work-in

    For example 88% of the workers in the UK agricultural sector are British.

    Weren't we told that if we didn't have unrestricted immigration we would all starve ?

    :wink:

    Likewise 86% of the workers in retail / restaurants / hotels are also British.

    Makes you wonder what PretAManger's recruitment methods and employment practices are.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,066
    Donald Rodham Clinton
    http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/04/donald-rodham-clinton-215024
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,411
    A year ago:

    ' The threat of a potential vote to leave the EU in June could be partly to blame for the first rise in unemployment in seven months, the work and pensions secretary has warned.

    Stephen Crabb said the latest labour report, which showed the unemployment total rose by 21,000 in the three months to February to 1.7 million, was a signal that the looming EU referendum vote was hitting the jobs market. '

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/apr/20/uk-unemployment-rises-and-pay-growth-falls

    Unemployment is now 141,000 lower than when Crabb was peddling his branch of Project Fear.

    It is also about a million lower than when the upcoming local elections were last contested in 2012 and 2013:

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peoplenotinwork/unemployment/timeseries/mgsc/unem
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/paulsinha/status/852477388495749126

    just saw that on twitter :)
    Fixed it:

    Their shud be less grammer skools.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:



    If Australia can negotiate Free Trade Agreements with barely more than a third of the UK population and less than half our gdp why cannot the UK do the same?

    It is worth remembering that it is much easier to sign FTAs when you have a limited set of non-competing exports. Australia exports raw materials: coal, etc., (see http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/profile/country/aus/#Exports), so most countries do not see Australia as a major threat to domestic industries.
    Depends if you are producing coal or not and 73% of the Australian economy is made up of services so not that much different to the UK. If Australia can survive as an independent nation then so can we
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economy_of_Australia.
    Yes. But you can't export hairdressing. Composition of exports matters.
    Looking around the US, it seems that Britain has been reasonably successful at exporting hairdressers, though.
  • Beverley_CBeverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited April 2017
    Probably the most honest pro-leave publication cover I have seen.....
    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/852274067138850817
    https://twitter.com/AllieHBNews/status/852244061889200132

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 68,019
    Conservatives take Coulby Newham from labour
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    Cons hold Ribble valley..
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 4m4 minutes ago

    Conservative GAIN Coulby Newham (Middlesbrough) from Labour.

    Conservative HOLD Piddle Valley (West Dorset)."
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 68,019
    timmo said:

    Cons hold Ribble valley..

    Piddle Valley on West Dorset
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,521
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Conservatives take Coulby Newham from labour

    Next step, teeside mayor!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,513
    edited April 2017
    .
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2017
    Tories need a 2.5% swing to take the Middlesbrough South constituency from Labour. Coulby Newham is in the constituency.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,827
    AndyJS said:

    "Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 4m4 minutes ago

    Conservative GAIN Coulby Newham (Middlesbrough) from Labour.

    Conservative HOLD Piddle Valley (West Dorset)."

    Winning here! :D
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Why no LD candidates in either of these by-elections?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,521
    edited April 2017
    AndyJS said:

    Why no LD candidates in either of these by-elections?

    Seems odd - nationally they've been making a big deal of their fight back, it being the best news theyve had for awhile, so you'd assume local parties are encouraged to stand even in no hopers. Maybe they've done so well some are scared to stand as paper candidates. I guess the yellow tide only stretches so far as well.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Election Data‏ @election_data 5m5 minutes ago

    That's apparently the first Conservative ever elected in Coulby Newham (Middlesbrough) @britainelects"
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 88,523
    AndyJS said:

    "Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 4m4 minutes ago

    Conservative GAIN Coulby Newham (Middlesbrough) from Labour.

    Conservative HOLD Piddle Valley (West Dorset)."

    21st Century Socialism sweeping the nation...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 3m3 minutes ago

    Coulby Newham (Middlesbrough) result:

    CON: 38.0% (+8.3)
    LAB: 35.5% (-8.2)
    IND: 24.1% (-2.5)
    GRN: 2.4% (+2.4)

    Chgs. from 2015."
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,411
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 4m4 minutes ago

    Conservative GAIN Coulby Newham (Middlesbrough) from Labour.

    Conservative HOLD Piddle Valley (West Dorset)."

    21st Century Socialism sweeping the nation...
    Just think what problems Labour will have if they lose Corbyn.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,521
    edited April 2017
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 4m4 minutes ago

    Conservative GAIN Coulby Newham (Middlesbrough) from Labour.

    Conservative HOLD Piddle Valley (West Dorset)."

    21st Century Socialism sweeping the nation...
    I'm going to guess socialism was big once in the piddle valley. All about coming together as one for the common good, inside a tent together pissing out, that sort of thing.

    ...what? Give me a break it's late.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 88,523
    edited April 2017
    kle4 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 4m4 minutes ago

    Conservative GAIN Coulby Newham (Middlesbrough) from Labour.

    Conservative HOLD Piddle Valley (West Dorset)."

    21st Century Socialism sweeping the nation...
    I'm going to guess socialism was big once in the piddle valley. All about coming together as one for the common good, inside a tent together pissing out, that sort of thing.

    ...what? Give me a break it's late.
    This is what I was referring to...

    first Conservative ever elected in Coulby Newham (Middlesbrough) ...from Labour.

    Another first for Jezza controlled Labour party.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    another_richard said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 4m4 minutes ago

    Conservative GAIN Coulby Newham (Middlesbrough) from Labour.

    Conservative HOLD Piddle Valley (West Dorset)."

    21st Century Socialism sweeping the nation...
    Just think what problems Labour will have if they lose Corbyn.
    According to Diane Abbott Labour's support could be down to 10% without Corbyn. At least that's what it seemed to say in the Guardian.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Why no LD candidates in either of these by-elections?

    Seems odd - nationally they've been making a big deal of their fight back, it being the best news theyve had for awhile, so you'd assume local parties are encouraged to stand even in no hopers. Maybe they've done so well some are scared to stand as paper candidates. I guess the yellow tide only stretches so far as well.
    It could just be a failure to find candidates. If it was a tactical decision not to stand, I'd guess the reasoning is that they thought they'd do poorly with mutual aid efforts better used elsewhere and a DNS barely registers, even with nerds, whereas a 3% share (for example) will be noticed?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,066
    AndyJS said:

    Why no LD candidates in either of these by-elections?

    Coulby too full of Leave voting plebs, while they left the Greens to piddle in Dorset
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,411
    AndyJS said:

    "Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 3m3 minutes ago

    Coulby Newham (Middlesbrough) result:

    CON: 38.0% (+8.3)
    LAB: 35.5% (-8.2)
    IND: 24.1% (-2.5)
    GRN: 2.4% (+2.4)

    Chgs. from 2015."

    Aside from the Tess Valley election, Labour are also defending 90+ councillors in Durham and another 30+ in each of Cumbria and Northumberland.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,411
    edited April 2017
    Labour's expectations management for the local elections has not been good:

    ' However, senior allies of Corbyn fear there could be a renewed effort by Labour rebels to challenge him for the leadership if the party’s local election results are very poor, with some estimates suggesting dozens of council seats could be lost. '

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/13/most-of-labours-support-is-down-to-corbyn-diane-abbott-says

    If Labour's losses are only in the dozens I'll be surprised.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    kle4 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 4m4 minutes ago

    Conservative GAIN Coulby Newham (Middlesbrough) from Labour.

    Conservative HOLD Piddle Valley (West Dorset)."

    21st Century Socialism sweeping the nation...
    I'm going to guess socialism was big once in the piddle valley. All about coming together as one for the common good, inside a tent together pissing out, that sort of thing.

    ...what? Give me a break it's late.
    .

    first Conservative ever elected in Coulby Newham (Middlesbrough) ...from Labour.

    Another first for Jezza controlled Labour party.
    That is not factually correct . Coulby Newham ward was created in 2003 . The predecessor larger Newham ward had 2 Labour and 1 Conservative councillor from 1999 to 2003
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,990
    another_richard said:

    Labour's expectations management for the local elections has not been good:

    ' However, senior allies of Corbyn fear there could be a renewed effort by Labour rebels to challenge him for the leadership if the party’s local election results are very poor, with some estimates suggesting dozens of council seats could be lost. '

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/apr/13/most-of-labours-support-is-down-to-corbyn-diane-abbott-says

    If Labour's losses are only in the dozens I'll be surprised.

    Given that most Scottish wards are being contested for the first time since 2012, 'dozens' of losses seems fairly optimistic.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,411
    MarkSenior said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    kle4 said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 4m4 minutes ago

    Conservative GAIN Coulby Newham (Middlesbrough) from Labour.

    Conservative HOLD Piddle Valley (West Dorset)."

    21st Century Socialism sweeping the nation...
    I'm going to guess socialism was big once in the piddle valley. All about coming together as one for the common good, inside a tent together pissing out, that sort of thing.

    ...what? Give me a break it's late.
    .

    first Conservative ever elected in Coulby Newham (Middlesbrough) ...from Labour.

    Another first for Jezza controlled Labour party.
    That is not factually correct . Coulby Newham ward was created in 2003 . The predecessor larger Newham ward had 2 Labour and 1 Conservative councillor from 1999 to 2003
    But it seems that the Conservative strength in that old Newham ward was in the part which isn't in the present Coulby Newham ward ie a Conservative would not have been elected on these boundaries in 1999.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 26,352
    Sean_F said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Not even a LibDem candidate this week?

    I'm sure there's a gag to be made that Mark Oaten would be the ideal candidate in Piddle Valley.
    Shitterton is located in Piddle Valley.
    Ladeez and gennelmen, we haz a winner!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 26,352
    AndyJS said:

    "Election Data‏ @election_data 5m5 minutes ago

    That's apparently the first Conservative ever elected in Coulby Newham (Middlesbrough) @britainelects"

    Remind me: what are the odds on Labour getting less than 200 seats in a 650-seat house? It's gotta be a possibility at this point, yes?
  • CookieCookie Posts: 16,315
    It must be getting on for 20 years since I was in Coulby Newham, but this is not the bleak urban Labour territory that you might be imagining - as I remember it, it's mainly modern private housing - natural conservative territory anywhere south of Teesside and outside of coalfields. A good result for the Conservatives, given that they have struggled here in the past, but not Con gain Bootle territory yet.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    From VoteUK forum:

    "MIDDLESBROUGH Coulby Newham

    Jacob YOUNG (The Conservative Party candidate) 501
    Annalise HIGGINS (Labour Party) 468
    Mike ALLEN (Independent) 318
    Emma ALBERTI (Green Party) 32"
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    viewcode said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Election Data‏ @election_data 5m5 minutes ago

    That's apparently the first Conservative ever elected in Coulby Newham (Middlesbrough) @britainelects"

    Remind me: what are the odds on Labour getting less than 200 seats in a 650-seat house? It's gotta be a possibility at this point, yes?
    I'd say Labour are almost guaranteed to get less than 200 seats if Corbyn is leader. Sorry to be so blunt if any Corbyn supporters are reading.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    viewcode said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Election Data‏ @election_data 5m5 minutes ago

    That's apparently the first Conservative ever elected in Coulby Newham (Middlesbrough) @britainelects"

    Remind me: what are the odds on Labour getting less than 200 seats in a 650-seat house? It's gotta be a possibility at this point, yes?
    They'd only need to lose 33 to drop below 200 (or 32 if you count Copeland as already lost). It's eminently possible, even with a new leader, given the problems that any leader from the left will have with the electorate, and any leader from the centre will have with the membership.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2017
    Some of the best amateur election experts on the VoteUK forum were nearly all expecting Labour to get roughly twice as many votes as the Tories in this by-election.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,827
    AndyJS said:

    Some of the best amateur election experts on the VoteUK forum were nearly all expecting Labour to get roughly twice as many votes as the Tories in this by-election.

    Bloody experts!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Cookie said:

    It must be getting on for 20 years since I was in Coulby Newham, but this is not the bleak urban Labour territory that you might be imagining - as I remember it, it's mainly modern private housing - natural conservative territory anywhere south of Teesside and outside of coalfields. A good result for the Conservatives, given that they have struggled here in the past, but not Con gain Bootle territory yet.

    But it is Con gain Middlesbrough South territory. They need a swing of 2.5% and this was about 8%. The seat hasn't been won by the Tories since 1992 (when it was known as Langbaurgh).
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    RobD said:

    AndyJS said:

    Some of the best amateur election experts on the VoteUK forum were nearly all expecting Labour to get roughly twice as many votes as the Tories in this by-election.

    Bloody experts!
    These are amateur experts, so not included in Michael Gove's experts category.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 56,190
    AndyJS said:

    "Election Data‏ @election_data 5m5 minutes ago

    That's apparently the first Conservative ever elected in Coulby Newham (Middlesbrough) @britainelects"

    Despite Brexit....
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 26,352
    david_herdson said:

    viewcode said:

    AndyJS said:

    "Election Data‏ @election_data 5m5 minutes ago

    That's apparently the first Conservative ever elected in Coulby Newham (Middlesbrough) @britainelects"

    Remind me: what are the odds on Labour getting less than 200 seats in a 650-seat house? It's gotta be a possibility at this point, yes?
    They'd only need to lose 33 to drop below 200 (or 32 if you count Copeland as already lost). It's eminently possible, even with a new leader, given the problems that any leader from the left will have with the electorate, and any leader from the centre will have with the membership.
    Thank you
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited April 2017
    What the Middlesbrough result shows is that the polls putting the Tories 15-20 points ahead aren't wrong. They reflect the reality on the ground.
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,614
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/paulsinha/status/852477388495749126

    Why can't Theresa May's team see just how toxic this grammar school policy is in the wider UK?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 26,352
    AndyJS said:

    What the Middlesbrough result shows is that the polls putting the Tories 15-20 points ahead aren't wrong. They reflect the reality on the ground.

    ...and this is in the middle of the term, when Labour should be strongest. If this keeps going it's going to be an absolute slaughter...
  • CyanCyan Posts: 1,262
    Mélenchon is the star of an anti-rich video game in which his character shakes opponents such as Macron and Lagarde until money falls from their pockets. He appears at multiple meetings simultaneously using holograms. Tens of thousands of people participated in the process that produced his manifesto. The last time I looked he had a book or two that were outdoing even Dupont-Aignan's efforts. Everyone agrees he is highly charismatic.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    Cookie said:

    It must be getting on for 20 years since I was in Coulby Newham, but this is not the bleak urban Labour territory that you might be imagining - as I remember it, it's mainly modern private housing - natural conservative territory anywhere south of Teesside and outside of coalfields. A good result for the Conservatives, given that they have struggled here in the past, but not Con gain Bootle territory yet.

    If Labour can't win in Coulby Newham they are literally going to be limited to the most deprived areas only.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 21,093
    edited April 2017
    Just been out with some very old-school County Durham Labour voters from Bishop Auckland, Shildon etc and the Labour brand is still very strong. They dislike Corbyn but will still vote Labour.
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 750
    The newly elected Conservative councillor in Middlesbrough is aged under 25, although he has some political experience: he fought Redcar in the 2015 GE. (Source: Election Data)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    fitalass said:

    Why can't Theresa May's team see just how toxic this grammar school policy is in the wider UK?

    As long as Corbyn is leader, the toxicity of any policy in the country is largely irrelevant. The only constituency that matters to TMay is the headbangers on her backbenches, and they love it.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 53,141
    edited April 2017
    .
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited April 2017
    Beverley_C said:

    chestnut said:

    The EU seem to be falling over themselves to try and attract Canada, Australia and India.

    Our historic relationships concern them. Likewise, our links with the US.

    They know what the export market share was for these countries and Europe in the UK before we joined the EU.

    A reversion to those shares is literally hundreds of billions walking away.

    We do more trade with Belgium than we do with Canada, New Zealand and Australia combined. We currently do about £4.5bn with India.

    I can get that lot to add up to about £16bn. Where you get a figure of "... hundreds of billions..." baffles me.

    By redistributing our import market according to it's pre-EU shares.

    In 1970, 25% of our imports came from the US and Canada, for example.

    Belgium and the Netherlands are falsely represented as port destinations rather than real import/export destinations.
This discussion has been closed.

© Vanilla Keystone Theme 2025