politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LDs go for the jugular against Corbyn in Manchester Gorton

Brutal Lib Dem leaflet for Manchester Gorton by-election. pic.twitter.com/VUQq3zS23E
Comments
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"Vote for the LDs, we wish we were Labour too"0
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It is a pretty funny leaflet though.
That said, it appears to say 'turn over to see the real opposition'. What if the first bit I see is the other side, leaflet, you'd look silly then, eh?0 -
Would Labour be doing better in the polls if they opposed Brexit happening, to the point of voting against Article 50? More losses to the Conservatives but fewer to the Lib Dems I guess. Difficult to say for sure.0
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Fourth like SLab0
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Be interesting to see how the Lib Dems do. Likewise Galloway.0
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Labour may or may not be missing a backbone, but Corbyn may have too much of a backbone, it's keeping him upright as leader long past the point that is healthy.0
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Mr. kle4, are you saying Corbyn is the Honda engine of British politics?0
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Good to see there’s no bar too low the Lib Dems can’t slither under.0
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Speaking of bars, where is the bar chart??SimonStClare said:Good to see there’s no bar too low the Lib Dems can’t slither under.
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*obvious joke alert*
Are we sure that's a LD leaflet? I don't see a single misleading bar chart on that page. And, frankly, it's the internal Labour opposition that is generally more vicious for JC.0 -
I know! Fortunately I refreshed the page before making a comment you'd already just made yesterday.RobD said:
I've been stealing more of your thoughts.kle4 said:*obvious joke alert*
Are we sure that's a LD leaflet? I don't see a single misleading bar chart on that page. And, frankly, it's the internal Labour opposition that is generally more vicious for JC.
Arg, back to the football instead. No one steals thoughts there.0 -
0
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" Those wanting to stay in the EU are much more fired up than those who back Leave."
LOL They are now, getting on for 10 months after the matter was decided.
No one told them when to run; they missed the starting gun.0 -
LOL, but they say Scotland will lose theirs. They really are bolloxed.calum said:Bizarre Labour pledge
https://twitter.com/JeremyCorbyn4PM/status/852176028990672896
PS: Imagine getout is that we are not over a sea0 -
Eh? Can someone explain to me how Labour will be able to protect anyone's pension?malcolmg said:
LOL, but they say Scotland will lose theirs. They really are bolloxed.calum said:Bizarre Labour pledge
https://twitter.com/JeremyCorbyn4PM/status/852176028990672896
PS: Imagine getout is that we are not over a sea0 -
FPT
The graph on their poll link is very telling, if you follow the lines showing the fall of Macron and Le Pen and the rise of Fillon and Melenchon over the past 10 days and extend those lines for the next ten days, you would get all four of them converging over 10 days we have left before they vote.AndyJS said:New French presidential poll:
Ifop-Fiducial
Le Pen 23.5%
Macron 22.5%
Fillon 19.0%
Mélenchon 18.5%
Movement in this poll since their 30 March - 3rd April poll:
Le Pen -2
Macron -3.5
Fillon +2
Melenchon +3.5
http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_12-04-2017.pdf0 -
If you think of it as a race, winning the referendum was just like making the qualifying time for the Olympics. Article 50 was the starting gun, but there's every chance that the Brexiteers' legs will buckle well before the bell for the final lap.Ishmael_Z said:" Those wanting to stay in the EU are much more fired up than those who back Leave."
LOL They are now, getting on for 10 months after the matter was decided.
No one told them when to run; they missed the starting gun.0 -
I heard rumours of one of the Tory attack ads for the next GE.MikeSmithson said:If the LD leaflet appears brutal then think how the Tories will exploit the LAB leader’s history and that of his shadow chancellor, John McDonnell. Their back stories have so many hostages to fortune.
It's a video of every IRA attack on the mainland in the last 40 years, with a graphic of how many people were killed and injured in the attack.
The ad ends with a reference to Corbyn inviting Gerry Adams to the Commons days after the Brighton bombing and ends with John McDonnell saying that the IRA should be honoured for the bombings which brought the British government to the negotiating table during the Northern Ireland peace process.
Con gain Bootle if that video is accurate.0 -
Don't worry, I'm buggering off back to the US tomorrowkle4 said:
I know! Fortunately I refreshed the page before making a comment you'd already just made yesterday.RobD said:
I've been stealing more of your thoughts.kle4 said:*obvious joke alert*
Are we sure that's a LD leaflet? I don't see a single misleading bar chart on that page. And, frankly, it's the internal Labour opposition that is generally more vicious for JC.
Arg, back to the football instead. No one steals thoughts there.0 -
This is the best pledge - WTF are these guys taking !!
https://twitter.com/JeremyCorbyn4PM/status/8521347707588894750 -
I think their attitude at the time was awful, but I don't know that it would hit that hard with everyone - while the timing is extremely significant, that you can turn on the TV and see us all treating with Adams and his ilk every day, may diminish the impact of exactly what they were suggesting then and why things are different now.TheScreamingEagles said:
I heard rumours of one of the Tory attack ads for the next GE.MikeSmithson said:If the LD leaflet appears brutal then think how the Tories will exploit the LAB leader’s history and that of his shadow chancellor, John McDonnell. Their back stories have so many hostages to fortune.
It's a video of every IRA attack on the mainland in the last 40 years, with a graphic of how many people were killed and injured in the attack.
The ad ends with a reference to Corbyn inviting Gerry Adams to the Commons days after the Brighton bombing and ends with John McDonnell saying that the IRA should be honoured for the bombings which brought the British government to the negotiating table during the Northern Ireland peace process.
Con gain Bootle if that video is accurate.0 -
You're reading way too much into a Corbyn fan site.calum said:This is the best pledge - WTF are these guys taking !!
https://twitter.com/JeremyCorbyn4PM/status/8521347707588894750 -
Keep up the dream, william, keep up the dream.williamglenn said:
If you think of it as a race, winning the referendum was just like making the qualifying time for the Olympics. Article 50 was the starting gun, but there's every chance that the Brexiteers' legs will buckle well before the bell for the final lap.Ishmael_Z said:" Those wanting to stay in the EU are much more fired up than those who back Leave."
LOL They are now, getting on for 10 months after the matter was decided.
No one told them when to run; they missed the starting gun.0 -
With the airline that put the hospital in hospitality?RobD said:
Don't worry, I'm buggering off back to the US tomorrowkle4 said:
I know! Fortunately I refreshed the page before making a comment you'd already just made yesterday.RobD said:
I've been stealing more of your thoughts.kle4 said:*obvious joke alert*
Are we sure that's a LD leaflet? I don't see a single misleading bar chart on that page. And, frankly, it's the internal Labour opposition that is generally more vicious for JC.
Arg, back to the football instead. No one steals thoughts there.0 -
Lucky old mewilliamglenn said:
With the airline that put the hospital in hospitality?RobD said:
Don't worry, I'm buggering off back to the US tomorrowkle4 said:
I know! Fortunately I refreshed the page before making a comment you'd already just made yesterday.RobD said:
I've been stealing more of your thoughts.kle4 said:*obvious joke alert*
Are we sure that's a LD leaflet? I don't see a single misleading bar chart on that page. And, frankly, it's the internal Labour opposition that is generally more vicious for JC.
Arg, back to the football instead. No one steals thoughts there.0 -
Which reminds me, I need to call Homeland Security, you'll get to experience the joy I have flying to America.RobD said:
Don't worry, I'm buggering off back to the US tomorrowkle4 said:
I know! Fortunately I refreshed the page before making a comment you'd already just made yesterday.RobD said:
I've been stealing more of your thoughts.kle4 said:*obvious joke alert*
Are we sure that's a LD leaflet? I don't see a single misleading bar chart on that page. And, frankly, it's the internal Labour opposition that is generally more vicious for JC.
Arg, back to the football instead. No one steals thoughts there.0 -
Mr. G, zut alors! Sacre bleu!0
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Does it involve more queueing? What self respecting Brit doesn't enjoy a bit of queueing after an eleven hour flight?TheScreamingEagles said:
Which reminds me, I need to call Homeland Security, you'll get to experience the joy I have flying to America.RobD said:
Don't worry, I'm buggering off back to the US tomorrowkle4 said:
I know! Fortunately I refreshed the page before making a comment you'd already just made yesterday.RobD said:
I've been stealing more of your thoughts.kle4 said:*obvious joke alert*
Are we sure that's a LD leaflet? I don't see a single misleading bar chart on that page. And, frankly, it's the internal Labour opposition that is generally more vicious for JC.
Arg, back to the football instead. No one steals thoughts there.0 -
fpt
Abso-effing-lutely.Richard_Tyndall said:
I understand how my post might have seemed I was getting at you, I wasn't. Apologies.TOPPING said:
What exactly are you trying to say?Richard_Tyndall said:
Perhaps we should put up a similar set of posts of all the rapes and sexual assaults carried out by people who are not immigrants and not from ethnic minorities. Sadly I suspect it would take a hell of a lot more time and effort than the occasional reports from Sam.TOPPING said:
Let me guess (not ever watching the video clips you attach) - a pithy, acute analogy confirming the fact that a certain people have a propensity to commit sexual abuse while the establishment looks on doing nothing.isam said:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aFW6yUlgGdIFrancisUrquhart said:A group of 27 men and two women have appeared in court today accused of historic child abuse and neglect.
The 27 men are accused of committing historic sex and trafficking offences against 18 girls aged between 11 and 17 between 2004 and 2011.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4405262/27-men-2-women-court-child-sex-neglect-case.html
Am I right?
Edit: because you seem to be saying that a hell of a lot more assaults are committed by non-immigrants.
Like you I suspect, I just grow tired of people highlighting assaults by ethnic minorities or immigrants as if that is somehow an argument for them not being here or as if there is something specific about a religion or minority that makes them more likely to commit such assaults. If we were to follow that pattern and post every time a white person was involved in sexual abuse this place would be overwhelmed with such posts and we would all just give up.0 -
I'm not sure modelling himself on the handsome charismatic Warren Beatty is a very wise idea. He already has problems of low esteem
https://media1.britannica.com/eb-media/18/77218-004-A9DCCD14.jpg
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They can just point to the establishment paying tribute to Martin McGuinness, while calling out Norman Tebbit for not joining in, and say they were ahead of their timeTheScreamingEagles said:
I heard rumours of one of the Tory attack ads for the next GE.MikeSmithson said:If the LD leaflet appears brutal then think how the Tories will exploit the LAB leader’s history and that of his shadow chancellor, John McDonnell. Their back stories have so many hostages to fortune.
It's a video of every IRA attack on the mainland in the last 40 years, with a graphic of how many people were killed and injured in the attack.
The ad ends with a reference to Corbyn inviting Gerry Adams to the Commons days after the Brighton bombing and ends with John McDonnell saying that the IRA should be honoured for the bombings which brought the British government to the negotiating table during the Northern Ireland peace process.
Con gain Bootle if that video is accurate.0 -
More to do with questions on how good a Muslim you are and how often do you attend mosques.RobD said:
Does it involve more queueing? What self respecting Brit doesn't enjoy a bit of queueing after an eleven hour flight?TheScreamingEagles said:
Which reminds me, I need to call Homeland Security, you'll get to experience the joy I have flying to America.RobD said:
Don't worry, I'm buggering off back to the US tomorrowkle4 said:
I know! Fortunately I refreshed the page before making a comment you'd already just made yesterday.RobD said:
I've been stealing more of your thoughts.kle4 said:*obvious joke alert*
Are we sure that's a LD leaflet? I don't see a single misleading bar chart on that page. And, frankly, it's the internal Labour opposition that is generally more vicious for JC.
Arg, back to the football instead. No one steals thoughts there.0 -
"Six times a night as I do a circuit of the neighbourhood to keep watch on 'em"TheScreamingEagles said:
More to do with questions on how good a Muslim you are and how often do you attend mosques.RobD said:
Does it involve more queueing? What self respecting Brit doesn't enjoy a bit of queueing after an eleven hour flight?TheScreamingEagles said:
Which reminds me, I need to call Homeland Security, you'll get to experience the joy I have flying to America.RobD said:
Don't worry, I'm buggering off back to the US tomorrowkle4 said:
I know! Fortunately I refreshed the page before making a comment you'd already just made yesterday.RobD said:
I've been stealing more of your thoughts.kle4 said:*obvious joke alert*
Are we sure that's a LD leaflet? I don't see a single misleading bar chart on that page. And, frankly, it's the internal Labour opposition that is generally more vicious for JC.
Arg, back to the football instead. No one steals thoughts there.
That said, I hear airport officials, particularly in america, very deliberately have no sense of humour whatsoever.0 -
You mentioned not attending enough was a red flag. Boy am I in trouble!TheScreamingEagles said:
More to do with questions on how good a Muslim you are and how often do you attend mosques.RobD said:
Does it involve more queueing? What self respecting Brit doesn't enjoy a bit of queueing after an eleven hour flight?TheScreamingEagles said:
Which reminds me, I need to call Homeland Security, you'll get to experience the joy I have flying to America.RobD said:
Don't worry, I'm buggering off back to the US tomorrowkle4 said:
I know! Fortunately I refreshed the page before making a comment you'd already just made yesterday.RobD said:
I've been stealing more of your thoughts.kle4 said:*obvious joke alert*
Are we sure that's a LD leaflet? I don't see a single misleading bar chart on that page. And, frankly, it's the internal Labour opposition that is generally more vicious for JC.
Arg, back to the football instead. No one steals thoughts there.0 -
Yeah, being cheeky is a big no-no!kle4 said:
"Six times a night as I do a circuit of the neighbourhood to keep watch on 'em"TheScreamingEagles said:
More to do with questions on how good a Muslim you are and how often do you attend mosques.RobD said:
Does it involve more queueing? What self respecting Brit doesn't enjoy a bit of queueing after an eleven hour flight?TheScreamingEagles said:
Which reminds me, I need to call Homeland Security, you'll get to experience the joy I have flying to America.RobD said:
Don't worry, I'm buggering off back to the US tomorrowkle4 said:
I know! Fortunately I refreshed the page before making a comment you'd already just made yesterday.RobD said:
I've been stealing more of your thoughts.kle4 said:*obvious joke alert*
Are we sure that's a LD leaflet? I don't see a single misleading bar chart on that page. And, frankly, it's the internal Labour opposition that is generally more vicious for JC.
Arg, back to the football instead. No one steals thoughts there.
That said, I hear airport officials, particularly in america, very deliberately have no sense of humour whatsoever.0 -
And you frequent a blog whose deputy editor is a Muslim!RobD said:
You mentioned not attending enough was a red flag. Boy am I in trouble!TheScreamingEagles said:
More to do with questions on how good a Muslim you are and how often do you attend mosques.RobD said:
Does it involve more queueing? What self respecting Brit doesn't enjoy a bit of queueing after an eleven hour flight?TheScreamingEagles said:
Which reminds me, I need to call Homeland Security, you'll get to experience the joy I have flying to America.RobD said:
Don't worry, I'm buggering off back to the US tomorrowkle4 said:
I know! Fortunately I refreshed the page before making a comment you'd already just made yesterday.RobD said:
I've been stealing more of your thoughts.kle4 said:*obvious joke alert*
Are we sure that's a LD leaflet? I don't see a single misleading bar chart on that page. And, frankly, it's the internal Labour opposition that is generally more vicious for JC.
Arg, back to the football instead. No one steals thoughts there.
I hope you look good in orange, because you're going straight to Gitmo.0 -
Well we don't want our free owls getting cold...calum said:This is the best pledge - WTF are these guys taking !!
https://twitter.com/JeremyCorbyn4PM/status/8521347707588894750 -
Labour, so split that in one (FPTP) ward they've got two candidates standing!
https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/8518308235737374720 -
Yeah, I learned that lesson the hard way.kle4 said:
"Six times a night as I do a circuit of the neighbourhood to keep watch on 'em"TheScreamingEagles said:
More to do with questions on how good a Muslim you are and how often do you attend mosques.RobD said:
Does it involve more queueing? What self respecting Brit doesn't enjoy a bit of queueing after an eleven hour flight?TheScreamingEagles said:
Which reminds me, I need to call Homeland Security, you'll get to experience the joy I have flying to America.RobD said:
Don't worry, I'm buggering off back to the US tomorrowkle4 said:
I know! Fortunately I refreshed the page before making a comment you'd already just made yesterday.RobD said:
I've been stealing more of your thoughts.kle4 said:*obvious joke alert*
Are we sure that's a LD leaflet? I don't see a single misleading bar chart on that page. And, frankly, it's the internal Labour opposition that is generally more vicious for JC.
Arg, back to the football instead. No one steals thoughts there.
That said, I hear airport officials, particularly in america, very deliberately have no sense of humour whatsoever.
TSA Official: Do you have any weapons?
Me: Why? What do you need? Because one of my fellow travellers on this trip works for Qinetiq and he'll help you out.0 -
I feel like as a British person who rarely travels that scenario would be very hard for me, fighting my instincts.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yeah, I learned that lesson the hard way.kle4 said:
"Six times a night as I do a circuit of the neighbourhood to keep watch on 'em"TheScreamingEagles said:
More to do with questions on how good a Muslim you are and how often do you attend mosques.RobD said:
Does it involve more queueing? What self respecting Brit doesn't enjoy a bit of queueing after an eleven hour flight?TheScreamingEagles said:
Which reminds me, I need to call Homeland Security, you'll get to experience the joy I have flying to America.RobD said:
Don't worry, I'm buggering off back to the US tomorrowkle4 said:
I know! Fortunately I refreshed the page before making a comment you'd already just made yesterday.RobD said:
I've been stealing more of your thoughts.kle4 said:*obvious joke alert*
Are we sure that's a LD leaflet? I don't see a single misleading bar chart on that page. And, frankly, it's the internal Labour opposition that is generally more vicious for JC.
Arg, back to the football instead. No one steals thoughts there.
That said, I hear airport officials, particularly in america, very deliberately have no sense of humour whatsoever.
TSA Official: Do you have any weapons?
Me: Why? What do you need? Because one of my fellow travellers on this trip works for Qinetiq and he'll help you out.0 -
I'm very happy for that trend to continue.BudG said:FPT
The graph on their poll link is very telling, if you follow the lines showing the fall of Macron and Le Pen and the rise of Fillon and Melenchon over the past 10 days and extend those lines for the next ten days, you would get all four of them converging over 10 days we have left before they vote.AndyJS said:New French presidential poll:
Ifop-Fiducial
Le Pen 23.5%
Macron 22.5%
Fillon 19.0%
Mélenchon 18.5%
Movement in this poll since their 30 March - 3rd April poll:
Le Pen -2
Macron -3.5
Fillon +2
Melenchon +3.5
http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_12-04-2017.pdf0 -
There will be plenty in that vein, will go down rather well in places like Warrington and Birmingham.TheScreamingEagles said:
I heard rumours of one of the Tory attack ads for the next GE.MikeSmithson said:If the LD leaflet appears brutal then think how the Tories will exploit the LAB leader’s history and that of his shadow chancellor, John McDonnell. Their back stories have so many hostages to fortune.
It's a video of every IRA attack on the mainland in the last 40 years, with a graphic of how many people were killed and injured in the attack.
The ad ends with a reference to Corbyn inviting Gerry Adams to the Commons days after the Brighton bombing and ends with John McDonnell saying that the IRA should be honoured for the bombings which brought the British government to the negotiating table during the Northern Ireland peace process.
Con gain Bootle if that video is accurate.
Not sure about Manchester, given that the scumbags did £1bn of improvements to the city centre there0 -
Go Melenchon/Filon for the final two!Sean_F said:
I'm very happy for that trend to continue.BudG said:FPT
The graph on their poll link is very telling, if you follow the lines showing the fall of Macron and Le Pen and the rise of Fillon and Melenchon over the past 10 days and extend those lines for the next ten days, you would get all four of them converging over 10 days we have left before they vote.AndyJS said:New French presidential poll:
Ifop-Fiducial
Le Pen 23.5%
Macron 22.5%
Fillon 19.0%
Mélenchon 18.5%
Movement in this poll since their 30 March - 3rd April poll:
Le Pen -2
Macron -3.5
Fillon +2
Melenchon +3.5
http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_12-04-2017.pdf0 -
Same here.kle4 said:
I feel like as a British person who rarely travels that scenario would be very hard for me, fighting my instincts.
The only time I've ever had a major incident was on a business trip, I went with 5 colleagues, 4 white Englishmen, one white Scotsman, and me.
I was singled out for special attention and my colleagues took exception to the treatment being meted out to me.0 -
Friend of a friend nearly got sent back from Australia once, they asked if he had a criminal record and he instinctively replied that he didn't realise one was still required! They didn't see the funny side.kle4 said:
I feel like as a British person who rarely travels that scenario would be very hard for me, fighting my instincts.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yeah, I learned that lesson the hard way.kle4 said:
"Six times a night as I do a circuit of the neighbourhood to keep watch on 'em"TheScreamingEagles said:
More to do with questions on how good a Muslim you are and how often do you attend mosques.RobD said:
Does it involve more queueing? What self respecting Brit doesn't enjoy a bit of queueing after an eleven hour flight?TheScreamingEagles said:
Which reminds me, I need to call Homeland Security, you'll get to experience the joy I have flying to America.RobD said:
Don't worry, I'm buggering off back to the US tomorrowkle4 said:
I know! Fortunately I refreshed the page before making a comment you'd already just made yesterday.RobD said:
I've been stealing more of your thoughts.kle4 said:*obvious joke alert*
Are we sure that's a LD leaflet? I don't see a single misleading bar chart on that page. And, frankly, it's the internal Labour opposition that is generally more vicious for JC.
Arg, back to the football instead. No one steals thoughts there.
That said, I hear airport officials, particularly in america, very deliberately have no sense of humour whatsoever.
TSA Official: Do you have any weapons?
Me: Why? What do you need? Because one of my fellow travellers on this trip works for Qinetiq and he'll help you out.0 -
If that doesn't work, they can always do the follow up with Hezbollah, Press TV, Stop the War....TheScreamingEagles said:
I heard rumours of one of the Tory attack ads for the next GE.MikeSmithson said:If the LD leaflet appears brutal then think how the Tories will exploit the LAB leader’s history and that of his shadow chancellor, John McDonnell. Their back stories have so many hostages to fortune.
It's a video of every IRA attack on the mainland in the last 40 years, with a graphic of how many people were killed and injured in the attack.
The ad ends with a reference to Corbyn inviting Gerry Adams to the Commons days after the Brighton bombing and ends with John McDonnell saying that the IRA should be honoured for the bombings which brought the British government to the negotiating table during the Northern Ireland peace process.
Con gain Bootle if that video is accurate.
Or go for the Winter of Discontent, 3 day week etc, and how Jezzas policies are basically from the 70s.0 -
Both Labour and the Conservatives' supporters were split over Brexit. But, whereas very few Conservative Remainers are upset about Brexit, very many of their Labour counterparts are furious.Essexit said:Would Labour be doing better in the polls if they opposed Brexit happening, to the point of voting against Article 50? More losses to the Conservatives but fewer to the Lib Dems I guess. Difficult to say for sure.
0 -
I make £140 if Melenchon reaches the run off and another £100 if Fillon wins.kle4 said:
Go Melenchon/Filon for the final two!Sean_F said:
I'm very happy for that trend to continue.BudG said:FPT
The graph on their poll link is very telling, if you follow the lines showing the fall of Macron and Le Pen and the rise of Fillon and Melenchon over the past 10 days and extend those lines for the next ten days, you would get all four of them converging over 10 days we have left before they vote.AndyJS said:New French presidential poll:
Ifop-Fiducial
Le Pen 23.5%
Macron 22.5%
Fillon 19.0%
Mélenchon 18.5%
Movement in this poll since their 30 March - 3rd April poll:
Le Pen -2
Macron -3.5
Fillon +2
Melenchon +3.5
http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_12-04-2017.pdf0 -
Listening to the joint Russia - US press conference from Moscow it looks like a big win for Trump and I am willing to be corrected but it looks like Russia have blinked first.
Big success for Tillerson with Lavrov condemning Obama and looking for joint action on Syria and also co-operation over North Korea
Maybe the future is a little brighter but long way to go0 -
These tightening polls notwithstanding, 1.92 for Macron looks like insane value.0
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If, for a bit of fun, we apply the same gains and losses as over the past ten days, we will arrive at a final result of:Sean_F said:
I'm very happy for that trend to continue.BudG said:FPT
The graph on their poll link is very telling, if you follow the lines showing the fall of Macron and Le Pen and the rise of Fillon and Melenchon over the past 10 days and extend those lines for the next ten days, you would get all four of them converging over 10 days we have left before they vote.AndyJS said:New French presidential poll:
Ifop-Fiducial
Le Pen 23.5%
Macron 22.5%
Fillon 19.0%
Mélenchon 18.5%
Movement in this poll since their 30 March - 3rd April poll:
Le Pen -2
Macron -3.5
Fillon +2
Melenchon +3.5
http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_12-04-2017.pdf
Melenchon 22
Le Pen 21.5
Fillon 21
Macron 19
Macron finishing 4th, wonder what odds that would be.
0 -
Lavrov just referred to our 'American Partners'Big_G_NorthWales said:Listening to the joint Russia - US press conference from Moscow it looks like a big win for Trump and I am willing to be corrected but it looks like Russia have blinked first.
Big success for Tillerson with Lavrov condemning Obama and looking for joint action on Syria and also co-operation over North Korea
Maybe the future is a little brighter but long way to go0 -
If it's Melenchon v Le Pen in the run-off, then the next French President will want to pull the country out of the EU and NATO, although I expect neither would get close to a majority in the National Assembly.BudG said:
If, for a bit of fun, we apply the same gains and losses as over the past ten days, we will arrive at a final result of:Sean_F said:
I'm very happy for that trend to continue.BudG said:FPT
The graph on their poll link is very telling, if you follow the lines showing the fall of Macron and Le Pen and the rise of Fillon and Melenchon over the past 10 days and extend those lines for the next ten days, you would get all four of them converging over 10 days we have left before they vote.AndyJS said:New French presidential poll:
Ifop-Fiducial
Le Pen 23.5%
Macron 22.5%
Fillon 19.0%
Mélenchon 18.5%
Movement in this poll since their 30 March - 3rd April poll:
Le Pen -2
Macron -3.5
Fillon +2
Melenchon +3.5
http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_12-04-2017.pdf
Melenchon 22
Le Pen 21.5
Fillon 21
Macron 19
Macron finishing 4th, wonder what odds that would be.0 -
Mr. F, I thought Le Pen wanted France to leave the eurozone, and would only hold an EU In/Out referendum if that didn't happen?0
-
No they wouldn't. Which is why it is fairly safe for the French to have a free hit at the establishment.Sean_F said:
If it's Melenchon v Le Pen in the run-off, then the next French President will want to pull the country out of the EU and NATO, although I expect neither would get close to a majority in the National Assembly.BudG said:
If, for a bit of fun, we apply the same gains and losses as over the past ten days, we will arrive at a final result of:Sean_F said:
I'm very happy for that trend to continue.BudG said:FPT
The graph on their poll link is very telling, if you follow the lines showing the fall of Macron and Le Pen and the rise of Fillon and Melenchon over the past 10 days and extend those lines for the next ten days, you would get all four of them converging over 10 days we have left before they vote.AndyJS said:New French presidential poll:
Ifop-Fiducial
Le Pen 23.5%
Macron 22.5%
Fillon 19.0%
Mélenchon 18.5%
Movement in this poll since their 30 March - 3rd April poll:
Le Pen -2
Macron -3.5
Fillon +2
Melenchon +3.5
http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_12-04-2017.pdf
Melenchon 22
Le Pen 21.5
Fillon 21
Macron 19
Macron finishing 4th, wonder what odds that would be.0 -
It will hit home in the Midlands.kle4 said:
I think their attitude at the time was awful, but I don't know that it would hit that hard with everyone - while the timing is extremely significant, that you can turn on the TV and see us all treating with Adams and his ilk every day, may diminish the impact of exactly what they were suggesting then and why things are different now.TheScreamingEagles said:
I heard rumours of one of the Tory attack ads for the next GE.MikeSmithson said:If the LD leaflet appears brutal then think how the Tories will exploit the LAB leader’s history and that of his shadow chancellor, John McDonnell. Their back stories have so many hostages to fortune.
It's a video of every IRA attack on the mainland in the last 40 years, with a graphic of how many people were killed and injured in the attack.
The ad ends with a reference to Corbyn inviting Gerry Adams to the Commons days after the Brighton bombing and ends with John McDonnell saying that the IRA should be honoured for the bombings which brought the British government to the negotiating table during the Northern Ireland peace process.
Con gain Bootle if that video is accurate.
Dad will not even utter his the Chancellor's name - he grew up in Brum in the early 70s. Like almost everyone, he went to pubs.0 -
The danger with that is that things run out of control. A win for either might generate a bandwagon for the Assembly elections. I don't think it would, but it has to be a possibility. And, even with a hostile Assembly, the winner would have five years to promise the moon on a stick to the voters, if only the Assembly weren't blocking him/her - and then call fresh elections if it seemed propitious.BudG said:
No they wouldn't. Which is why it is fairly safe for the French to have a free hit at the establishment.Sean_F said:
If it's Melenchon v Le Pen in the run-off, then the next French President will want to pull the country out of the EU and NATO, although I expect neither would get close to a majority in the National Assembly.BudG said:
If, for a bit of fun, we apply the same gains and losses as over the past ten days, we will arrive at a final result of:Sean_F said:
I'm very happy for that trend to continue.BudG said:FPT
The graph on their poll link is very telling, if you follow the lines showing the fall of Macron and Le Pen and the rise of Fillon and Melenchon over the past 10 days and extend those lines for the next ten days, you would get all four of them converging over 10 days we have left before they vote.AndyJS said:New French presidential poll:
Ifop-Fiducial
Le Pen 23.5%
Macron 22.5%
Fillon 19.0%
Mélenchon 18.5%
Movement in this poll since their 30 March - 3rd April poll:
Le Pen -2
Macron -3.5
Fillon +2
Melenchon +3.5
http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_12-04-2017.pdf
Melenchon 22
Le Pen 21.5
Fillon 21
Macron 19
Macron finishing 4th, wonder what odds that would be.0 -
I still think it will be a Le Pen v Macron runoff but that Fillon will run Macron close for second0
-
Those saying not sure how effective reminding the public of Jezza and McMao's support for IRA...remember who it is that votes.0
-
Nicola joining Kezia on criticising Ruth's position:
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/fm-brands-ruth-davidson-shameful-over-rape-clause-stance-1-4418275
0 -
Surprised they are against the exemption.calum said:Nicola joining Kezia on criticising Ruth's position:
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/fm-brands-ruth-davidson-shameful-over-rape-clause-stance-1-44182750 -
On topic,
Bet half the PLP are praying for a LD win0 -
Interesting interview with Melenchon's number two here:BudG said:
If, for a bit of fun, we apply the same gains and losses as over the past ten days, we will arrive at a final result of:Sean_F said:
I'm very happy for that trend to continue.BudG said:FPT
The graph on their poll link is very telling, if you follow the lines showing the fall of Macron and Le Pen and the rise of Fillon and Melenchon over the past 10 days and extend those lines for the next ten days, you would get all four of them converging over 10 days we have left before they vote.AndyJS said:New French presidential poll:
Ifop-Fiducial
Le Pen 23.5%
Macron 22.5%
Fillon 19.0%
Mélenchon 18.5%
Movement in this poll since their 30 March - 3rd April poll:
Le Pen -2
Macron -3.5
Fillon +2
Melenchon +3.5
http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_12-04-2017.pdf
Melenchon 22
Le Pen 21.5
Fillon 21
Macron 19
Macron finishing 4th, wonder what odds that would be.
https://www.jacobinmag.com/2017/04/france-insoumise-melenchon-elections-sixth-republic-national-front/
She holds up Venezuela as her inspiration, talks about getting rid of the Fifth Republic and wants to remove political parties in favour of people's organisations.
Where have I heard all of that except the first before? Oh yes, the Soviet constitution of 1936.0 -
If Trump or more likely Tillerson can help solve the North Korean problem, presumably with China's help, he'll deserve a medal.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Lavrov just referred to our 'American Partners'Big_G_NorthWales said:Listening to the joint Russia - US press conference from Moscow it looks like a big win for Trump and I am willing to be corrected but it looks like Russia have blinked first.
Big success for Tillerson with Lavrov condemning Obama and looking for joint action on Syria and also co-operation over North Korea
Maybe the future is a little brighter but long way to go
Private Eye will also have to devise an even better speech bubble for the N. Korean leader than his recent 'there is no big brother here'.0 -
And where the marginal Lab/Con seats are.FrancisUrquhart said:Those saying not sure how effective reminding the public of Jezza and McMao's support for IRA...remember who it is that votes.
0 -
People still do that?! I could understand it 3-4 years ago maybe.ydoethur said:
Interesting interview with Melenchon's number two here:BudG said:
If, for a bit of fun, we apply the same gains and losses as over the past ten days, we will arrive at a final result of:Sean_F said:
I'm very happy for that trend to continue.BudG said:FPT
The graph on their poll link is very telling, if you follow the lines showing the fall of Macron and Le Pen and the rise of Fillon and Melenchon over the past 10 days and extend those lines for the next ten days, you would get all four of them converging over 10 days we have left before they vote.AndyJS said:New French presidential poll:
Ifop-Fiducial
Le Pen 23.5%
Macron 22.5%
Fillon 19.0%
Mélenchon 18.5%
Movement in this poll since their 30 March - 3rd April poll:
Le Pen -2
Macron -3.5
Fillon +2
Melenchon +3.5
http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_12-04-2017.pdf
Melenchon 22
Le Pen 21.5
Fillon 21
Macron 19
Macron finishing 4th, wonder what odds that would be.
https://www.jacobinmag.com/2017/04/france-insoumise-melenchon-elections-sixth-republic-national-front/
She holds up Venezuela as her inspiration.0 -
Labour is the party with the real Brexit problem. Hop on the Brexit bus, fight off UKIP in the North, but lose metropolitan seats to the LibDems. Or argue against Brexit, and potentially lose to both UKIP and the Conservatives - but hold on against the LibDems.Essexit said:Would Labour be doing better in the polls if they opposed Brexit happening, to the point of voting against Article 50? More losses to the Conservatives but fewer to the Lib Dems I guess. Difficult to say for sure.
The right answer, in the long run, is surely to hop on the Brexit bus. But. It's potentially a difficult period ahead, and (until Brexit is done and dusted and no one cares anymore) it means being one of three parties backing Brexit, giving the LibDems an opportunity to capture the perhaps 15% of voters who are hardcore Remain-ers.0 -
Not this again.calum said:Nicola joining Kezia on criticising Ruth's position:
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/fm-brands-ruth-davidson-shameful-over-rape-clause-stance-1-4418275
Do the SNP think there *shouldn't* be an exception to the new rules for victims of rape?0 -
Not great headlines for Ruth as postal ballots start arriving !RobD said:
Surprised they are against the exemption.calum said:Nicola joining Kezia on criticising Ruth's position:
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/fm-brands-ruth-davidson-shameful-over-rape-clause-stance-1-44182750 -
I would venture to suggest more than a third of Scots support capping tax credits at 2 children and an exemption for rape victims and a third of the Scottish vote would be an excellent result for Davidsoncalum said:
Not great headlines for Ruth as postal ballots start arriving !RobD said:
Surprised they are against the exemption.calum said:Nicola joining Kezia on criticising Ruth's position:
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/fm-brands-ruth-davidson-shameful-over-rape-clause-stance-1-44182750 -
I was travelling back from France on the ferry, in a two-seater sports car. The stony-faced customs woman looked us both up and down before asking: "just the two of you travelling is it?"kle4 said:
I feel like as a British person who rarely travels that scenario would be very hard for me, fighting my instincts.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yeah, I learned that lesson the hard way.kle4 said:
"Six times a night as I do a circuit of the neighbourhood to keep watch on 'em"TheScreamingEagles said:
More to do with questions on how good a Muslim you are and how often do you attend mosques.RobD said:
Does it involve more queueing? What self respecting Brit doesn't enjoy a bit of queueing after an eleven hour flight?TheScreamingEagles said:
Which reminds me, I need to call Homeland Security, you'll get to experience the joy I have flying to America.RobD said:
Don't worry, I'm buggering off back to the US tomorrowkle4 said:
I know! Fortunately I refreshed the page before making a comment you'd already just made yesterday.RobD said:
I've been stealing more of your thoughts.kle4 said:*obvious joke alert*
Are we sure that's a LD leaflet? I don't see a single misleading bar chart on that page. And, frankly, it's the internal Labour opposition that is generally more vicious for JC.
Arg, back to the football instead. No one steals thoughts there.
That said, I hear airport officials, particularly in america, very deliberately have no sense of humour whatsoever.
TSA Official: Do you have any weapons?
Me: Why? What do you need? Because one of my fellow travellers on this trip works for Qinetiq and he'll help you out.
Thumbnails stuck into palm of hands, etc..before answering: "yes, just the two of us."0 -
Labour would do better if they made up their collective minds, stuck together and voted accordingly.Sean_F said:
Both Labour and the Conservatives' supporters were split over Brexit. But, whereas very few Conservative Remainers are upset about Brexit, very many of their Labour counterparts are furious.Essexit said:Would Labour be doing better in the polls if they opposed Brexit happening, to the point of voting against Article 50? More losses to the Conservatives but fewer to the Lib Dems I guess. Difficult to say for sure.
As it is, most of them seem to keep voting to help the Conservatives get their policies through.
It confuses people, and they stop supporting Labour.0 -
When I used to go on a booze cruise (not been of late) I was never stopped or questioned bar the usual security stuff.TOPPING said:
I was travelling back from France on the ferry, in a two-seater sports car. The stony-faced customs woman looked us both up and down before asking: "just the two of you travelling is it?"kle4 said:
I feel like as a British person who rarely travels that scenario would be very hard for me, fighting my instincts.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yeah, I learned that lesson the hard way.kle4 said:
"Six times a night as I do a circuit of the neighbourhood to keep watch on 'em"TheScreamingEagles said:
More to do with questions on how good a Muslim you are and how often do you attend mosques.RobD said:
Does it involve more queueing? What self respecting Brit doesn't enjoy a bit of queueing after an eleven hour flight?TheScreamingEagles said:
Which reminds me, I need to call Homeland Security, you'll get to experience the joy I have flying to America.RobD said:
Don't worry, I'm buggering off back to the US tomorrowkle4 said:
I know! Fortunately I refreshed the page before making a comment you'd already just made yesterday.RobD said:
I've been stealing more of your thoughts.kle4 said:*obvious joke alert*
Are we sure that's a LD leaflet? I don't see a single misleading bar chart on that page. And, frankly, it's the internal Labour opposition that is generally more vicious for JC.
Arg, back to the football instead. No one steals thoughts there.
That said, I hear airport officials, particularly in america, very deliberately have no sense of humour whatsoever.
TSA Official: Do you have any weapons?
Me: Why? What do you need? Because one of my fellow travellers on this trip works for Qinetiq and he'll help you out.
Thumbnails stuck into palm of hands, etc..before answering: "yes, just the two of us."
I found replying to them in French most helpful and usually received a smile and Merci.
About time I planned another trip and thankfully I am now 4 yrs on since my last cigarette(another reason for previous visits)0 -
That's correct. She's softened considerably on the non-Eurozone part of the EU. (Part of her move towards the centre.)Morris_Dancer said:Mr. F, I thought Le Pen wanted France to leave the eurozone, and would only hold an EU In/Out referendum if that didn't happen?
It's also worth remembering that the appointment of the executive government (i.e. the PM and ministers) requires the consent of the National Assembly. It is possible that the FN ends up with the Presidency - perhaps following a Melachon vs Le Pen run off - but has less than a tenth of the seats in the National Assembly. In those circumstances, it would be almost impossible for MLP to put together a cabinet that would be acceptable to the National Assembly.0 -
The Cons have abandoned austerity, they have u-turned time and again (and in fact have u-turned for the past seven years on any contentious policy).PClipp said:
Labour would do better if they made up their collective minds, stuck together and voted accordingly.Sean_F said:
Both Labour and the Conservatives' supporters were split over Brexit. But, whereas very few Conservative Remainers are upset about Brexit, very many of their Labour counterparts are furious.Essexit said:Would Labour be doing better in the polls if they opposed Brexit happening, to the point of voting against Article 50? More losses to the Conservatives but fewer to the Lib Dems I guess. Difficult to say for sure.
As it is, most of them seem to keep voting to help the Conservatives get their policies through.
It confuses people, and they stop supporting Labour.
If Lab (HUUUUUUUUUGE IF) had any kind of credible leadership, and JMcD does give it a go sometimes, they would be whumping the Cons in the polls.
As for Brexit, they are, politically, golden. On record, sort of, as opposing it, but seen now as determined to do the best they can for the UK.
As for the IRA video, if it exists, again, a competent leader could point to the GFA and say look what we have now. Historically economic with the actualite but an effective counter.
But it comes back to Jezza again. All that turns to ashes with him at the helm.0 -
The main centre right party has outperformed the polls almost everywhere in Europe in the last few years (UK, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Netherlands), so maybe Fillon sneaks into the final two.HYUFD said:I still think it will be a Le Pen v Macron runoff but that Fillon will run Macron close for second
0 -
Have United been up to their tricks again?
https://twitter.com/reutersworld/status/8522292840350146570 -
Why do they want these mothers to be denied child benefit?calum said:Nicola joining Kezia on criticising Ruth's position:
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/fm-brands-ruth-davidson-shameful-over-rape-clause-stance-1-44182750 -
The Lib Dems have apparently made quite a tradition of saying one thing in one area and the opposite in another, to suit the local electorate. It's surely worth while Labour trying that? They have people who really back one side and other people who really back the other side, so it's just a question of pushing the right people in the right places.rcs1000 said:
Labour is the party with the real Brexit problem. Hop on the Brexit bus, fight off UKIP in the North, but lose metropolitan seats to the LibDems. Or argue against Brexit, and potentially lose to both UKIP and the Conservatives - but hold on against the LibDems.Essexit said:Would Labour be doing better in the polls if they opposed Brexit happening, to the point of voting against Article 50? More losses to the Conservatives but fewer to the Lib Dems I guess. Difficult to say for sure.
The right answer, in the long run, is surely to hop on the Brexit bus. But. It's potentially a difficult period ahead, and (until Brexit is done and dusted and no one cares anymore) it means being one of three parties backing Brexit, giving the LibDems an opportunity to capture the perhaps 15% of voters who are hardcore Remain-ers.
Good evening, everybody.0 -
Interestingly, France has two of the most geologically interesting on-shore basins in Europe from an oil and gas perspective. It could be a major oil producer.kle4 said:
People still do that?! I could understand it 3-4 years ago maybe.ydoethur said:
Interesting interview with Melenchon's number two here:BudG said:
If, for a bit of fun, we apply the same gains and losses as over the past ten days, we will arrive at a final result of:Sean_F said:
I'm very happy for that trend to continue.BudG said:FPT
The graph on their poll link is very telling, if you follow the lines showing the fall of Macron and Le Pen and the rise of Fillon and Melenchon over the past 10 days and extend those lines for the next ten days, you would get all four of them converging over 10 days we have left before they vote.AndyJS said:New French presidential poll:
Ifop-Fiducial
Le Pen 23.5%
Macron 22.5%
Fillon 19.0%
Mélenchon 18.5%
Movement in this poll since their 30 March - 3rd April poll:
Le Pen -2
Macron -3.5
Fillon +2
Melenchon +3.5
http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_12-04-2017.pdf
Melenchon 22
Le Pen 21.5
Fillon 21
Macron 19
Macron finishing 4th, wonder what odds that would be.
https://www.jacobinmag.com/2017/04/france-insoumise-melenchon-elections-sixth-republic-national-front/
She holds up Venezuela as her inspiration.
Sadly (for France), they are:
The Paris Basin (underneath Paris)
The Aquitaine Basin (underneath the Bordeaux vinyards
This rather limits the likelihood of them being exploited.0 -
Is she accident prone?SeanT said:Mate, this girl last night. OOOOOF.
http://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=Oooof0 -
Burning those pensioner pledges sure is generating a nice lot of heat.FrancisUrquhart said:
Well we don't want our free owls getting cold...calum said:This is the best pledge - WTF are these guys taking !!
https://twitter.com/JeremyCorbyn4PM/status/852134770758889475
0 -
I don't think so, May has reasonably positive ratings at the moment even if Labour changed its leaderTOPPING said:
The Cons have abandoned austerity, they have u-turned time and again (and in fact have u-turned for the past seven years on any contentious policy).PClipp said:
Labour would do better if they made up their collective minds, stuck together and voted accordingly.Sean_F said:
Both Labour and the Conservatives' supporters were split over Brexit. But, whereas very few Conservative Remainers are upset about Brexit, very many of their Labour counterparts are furious.Essexit said:Would Labour be doing better in the polls if they opposed Brexit happening, to the point of voting against Article 50? More losses to the Conservatives but fewer to the Lib Dems I guess. Difficult to say for sure.
As it is, most of them seem to keep voting to help the Conservatives get their policies through.
It confuses people, and they stop supporting Labour.
If Lab (HUUUUUUUUUGE IF) had any kind of credible leadership, and JMcD does give it a go sometimes, they would be whumping the Cons in the polls.
As for Brexit, they are, politically, golden. On record, sort of, as opposing it, but seen now as determined to do the best they can for the UK.
As for the IRA video, if it exists, again, a competent leader could point to the GFA and say look what we have now. Historically economic with the actualite but an effective counter.
But it comes back to Jezza again. All that turns to ashes with him at the helm.0 -
Agreed it will be tight for the second runoff spotrcs1000 said:
The main centre right party has outperformed the polls almost everywhere in Europe in the last few years (UK, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Netherlands), so maybe Fillon sneaks into the final two.HYUFD said:I still think it will be a Le Pen v Macron runoff but that Fillon will run Macron close for second
0 -
A good leader could challenge her better and perhaps help turn some of those positive numbers.HYUFD said:
I don't think so, May has reasonably positive ratings at the moment even if Labour changed its leaderTOPPING said:
The Cons have abandoned austerity, they have u-turned time and again (and in fact have u-turned for the past seven years on any contentious policy).PClipp said:
Labour would do better if they made up their collective minds, stuck together and voted accordingly.Sean_F said:
Both Labour and the Conservatives' supporters were split over Brexit. But, whereas very few Conservative Remainers are upset about Brexit, very many of their Labour counterparts are furious.Essexit said:Would Labour be doing better in the polls if they opposed Brexit happening, to the point of voting against Article 50? More losses to the Conservatives but fewer to the Lib Dems I guess. Difficult to say for sure.
As it is, most of them seem to keep voting to help the Conservatives get their policies through.
It confuses people, and they stop supporting Labour.
If Lab (HUUUUUUUUUGE IF) had any kind of credible leadership, and JMcD does give it a go sometimes, they would be whumping the Cons in the polls.
As for Brexit, they are, politically, golden. On record, sort of, as opposing it, but seen now as determined to do the best they can for the UK.
As for the IRA video, if it exists, again, a competent leader could point to the GFA and say look what we have now. Historically economic with the actualite but an effective counter.
But it comes back to Jezza again. All that turns to ashes with him at the helm.0 -
Liberal ? Democratic ? Is Farron still stamping his feet because the people didn't vote the way he wanted.PClipp said:
Labour would do better if they made up their collective minds, stuck together and voted accordingly.Sean_F said:
Both Labour and the Conservatives' supporters were split over Brexit. But, whereas very few Conservative Remainers are upset about Brexit, very many of their Labour counterparts are furious.Essexit said:Would Labour be doing better in the polls if they opposed Brexit happening, to the point of voting against Article 50? More losses to the Conservatives but fewer to the Lib Dems I guess. Difficult to say for sure.
As it is, most of them seem to keep voting to help the Conservatives get their policies through.
It confuses people, and they stop supporting Labour.0 -
In some ways it would be interesting to see what happens. I certainly don't buy the argument that the election of Le Pen would mean the end of the EU - if nothing else there's no real mechanism for it to end.rcs1000 said:
That's correct. She's softened considerably on the non-Eurozone part of the EU. (Part of her move towards the centre.)Morris_Dancer said:Mr. F, I thought Le Pen wanted France to leave the eurozone, and would only hold an EU In/Out referendum if that didn't happen?
It's also worth remembering that the appointment of the executive government (i.e. the PM and ministers) requires the consent of the National Assembly. It is possible that the FN ends up with the Presidency - perhaps following a Melachon vs Le Pen run off - but has less than a tenth of the seats in the National Assembly. In those circumstances, it would be almost impossible for MLP to put together a cabinet that would be acceptable to the National Assembly.0 -
Are there any markets on how long Sean Spicer remains as White House Press Secretary? "Even Hitler didn't stoop as low as to use chemical weapons."
Ouch. Ouch. Ouch.0 -
They should get in touch with C M Burns and his Slant Drilling Co.rcs1000 said:
Interestingly, France has two of the most geologically interesting on-shore basins in Europe from an oil and gas perspective. It could be a major oil producer.kle4 said:
People still do that?! I could understand it 3-4 years ago maybe.ydoethur said:
Interesting interview with Melenchon's number two here:BudG said:
If, for a bit of fun, we apply the same gains and losses as over the past ten days, we will arrive at a final result of:Sean_F said:
I'm very happy for that trend to continue.BudG said:FPT
The graph on their poll link is very telling, if you follow the lines showing the fall of Macron and Le Pen and the rise of Fillon and Melenchon over the past 10 days and extend those lines for the next ten days, you would get all four of them converging over 10 days we have left before they vote.AndyJS said:New French presidential poll:
Ifop-Fiducial
Le Pen 23.5%
Macron 22.5%
Fillon 19.0%
Mélenchon 18.5%
Movement in this poll since their 30 March - 3rd April poll:
Le Pen -2
Macron -3.5
Fillon +2
Melenchon +3.5
http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_12-04-2017.pdf
Melenchon 22
Le Pen 21.5
Fillon 21
Macron 19
Macron finishing 4th, wonder what odds that would be.
https://www.jacobinmag.com/2017/04/france-insoumise-melenchon-elections-sixth-republic-national-front/
She holds up Venezuela as her inspiration.
Sadly (for France), they are:
The Paris Basin (underneath Paris)
The Aquitaine Basin (underneath the Bordeaux vinyards
This rather limits the likelihood of them being exploited.0 -
She is on a tightrope. She simply can't please everyone and Lab is being dismissed, complacently in my view. If they change their leader they are in play.HYUFD said:
I don't think so, May has reasonably positive ratings at the moment even if Labour changed its leaderTOPPING said:
The Cons have abandoned austerity, they have u-turned time and again (and in fact have u-turned for the past seven years on any contentious policy).PClipp said:
Labour would do better if they made up their collective minds, stuck together and voted accordingly.Sean_F said:
Both Labour and the Conservatives' supporters were split over Brexit. But, whereas very few Conservative Remainers are upset about Brexit, very many of their Labour counterparts are furious.Essexit said:Would Labour be doing better in the polls if they opposed Brexit happening, to the point of voting against Article 50? More losses to the Conservatives but fewer to the Lib Dems I guess. Difficult to say for sure.
As it is, most of them seem to keep voting to help the Conservatives get their policies through.
It confuses people, and they stop supporting Labour.
If Lab (HUUUUUUUUUGE IF) had any kind of credible leadership, and JMcD does give it a go sometimes, they would be whumping the Cons in the polls.
As for Brexit, they are, politically, golden. On record, sort of, as opposing it, but seen now as determined to do the best they can for the UK.
As for the IRA video, if it exists, again, a competent leader could point to the GFA and say look what we have now. Historically economic with the actualite but an effective counter.
But it comes back to Jezza again. All that turns to ashes with him at the helm.0 -
One of them is a serious matter. No way could we manage to lose such an important place.rcs1000 said:
Interestingly, France has two of the most geologically interesting on-shore basins in Europe from an oil and gas perspective. It could be a major oil producer.kle4 said:
People still do that?! I could understand it 3-4 years ago maybe.ydoethur said:
Interesting interview with Melenchon's number two here:BudG said:
If, for a bit of fun, we apply the same gains and losses as over the past ten days, we will arrive at a final result of:Sean_F said:
I'm very happy for that trend to continue.BudG said:FPT
The graph on their poll link is very telling, if you follow the lines showing the fall of Macron and Le Pen and the rise of Fillon and Melenchon over the past 10 days and extend those lines for the next ten days, you would get all four of them converging over 10 days we have left before they vote.AndyJS said:New French presidential poll:
Ifop-Fiducial
Le Pen 23.5%
Macron 22.5%
Fillon 19.0%
Mélenchon 18.5%
Movement in this poll since their 30 March - 3rd April poll:
Le Pen -2
Macron -3.5
Fillon +2
Melenchon +3.5
http://dataviz.ifop.com:8080/IFOP_ROLLING/IFOP_12-04-2017.pdf
Melenchon 22
Le Pen 21.5
Fillon 21
Macron 19
Macron finishing 4th, wonder what odds that would be.
https://www.jacobinmag.com/2017/04/france-insoumise-melenchon-elections-sixth-republic-national-front/
She holds up Venezuela as her inspiration.
Sadly (for France), they are:
The Paris Basin (underneath Paris)
The Aquitaine Basin (underneath the Bordeaux vinyards
This rather limits the likelihood of them being exploited.
But for the other one - would we really miss Paris?
@kle4 - she says 'Latin America' but it's clear where she means. Remember, to most true believers Venezuela hasn't gone belly up because of corruption, mismanagement, greed and criminality of a venal ruling elite - it was destroyed by a US conspiracy backed by the world's banks. It's an early example of 'alternative facts'.
But maybe I'm being generous and it's as simple as she does want to utterly destroy France. She does also mention Iceland and Greece as examples to follow...0 -
Feel like this might be worth reminding people of, for no reason.
Everything in moderation - including moments of extremity!PBModerator said:SIte notice.
There's too much aggression, spats, and unpleasantness on PB at the moment.
So can we tone it down now, or more stringent action will be deployed.0 -
The French centre-right have made a complete mess of an election they should have won at a hack canter.HYUFD said:
Agreed it will be tight for the second runoff spotrcs1000 said:
The main centre right party has outperformed the polls almost everywhere in Europe in the last few years (UK, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Netherlands), so maybe Fillon sneaks into the final two.HYUFD said:I still think it will be a Le Pen v Macron runoff but that Fillon will run Macron close for second
Fillon's only hope is he polls 37% among those aged 65 or more - it's an extraordinary figure and in complete contrast to his much lower figures among younger voters.
The reverse is true for Marine Le Pen who polls only 14% among the over 65s. Macron's vote is much more uniform across the age groups.
A strong Fillon vote comes mainly at Le Pen's expense so could it be a Macron-Fillon run off ?
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Everything in moderation, except PB. Guzzle it down like there is no tomorrow!kle4 said:Feel like this might be worth reminding people of, for no reason.
Everything in moderation - including moments of extremity!PBModerator said:SIte notice.
There's too much aggression, spats, and unpleasantness on PB at the moment.
So can we tone it down now, or more stringent action will be deployed.-1 -
On the subject of French oil, the Front National opposes fracking in France (unlike our own UKIP). I don't think any mainstream party (France Arise?) supports it. (Which is strange when you remember how sparsely populated France is compared to the UK.)0
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I hope so!stodge said:
The French centre-right have made a complete mess of an election they should have won at a hack canter.HYUFD said:
Agreed it will be tight for the second runoff spotrcs1000 said:
The main centre right party has outperformed the polls almost everywhere in Europe in the last few years (UK, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Netherlands), so maybe Fillon sneaks into the final two.HYUFD said:I still think it will be a Le Pen v Macron runoff but that Fillon will run Macron close for second
Fillon's only hope is he polls 37% among those aged 65 or more - it's an extraordinary figure and in complete contrast to his much lower figures among younger voters.
The reverse is true for Marine Le Pen who polls only 14% among the over 65s. Macron's vote is much more uniform across the age groups.
A strong Fillon vote comes mainly at Le Pen's expense so could it be a Macron-Fillon run off ?0