politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Richard Nabavi on the Brexit Blame Game
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Richard Nabavi on the Brexit Blame Game
Now that the trigger has been pulled, the EU27 and the United Kingdom have begun the public posturing over the Brexit negotiations. So far this is not looking encouraging. Theresa May’s warm words about wanting a ”deep and special partnership between the UK and the EU” to include ”both economic and security cooperation” seem to have been, bizarrely, interpreted as a threat. The EU continues to insist that we have to settle the outline of the ‘exit deal’ before we can discuss what we are exiting to. They have thrown a hand-grenade into the negotiating process by appearing to want to blackmail us over Gibraltar.
Comments
-
First like the EU.0
-
Second like Remain sadly...but that ship has sailed.0
-
But a Brexit Breakdown would be a disaster for the Tories were it to lead to a dire recession. Like falling out of the ERM, their reputation for competence could be gone (especially without Jeremy).0
-
Theresa's warm words have been interpreted as a threat because they were presented as a threat.0
-
Third like the EU, in a two horse race.0
-
Thanks Richard. Agree with your conclusion.
FPT
Out of interest what would happen to people that did try to fly out of the country in that situation?FF43 said:
Interesting. I'm pretty sure the EU is not going to budge on the payments. It may not be the full €60 billion, but they will want an enforceable commitment in the tens of billions. We won't walk away, of course. We wouldn't be able to fly out of the country for a start. But it could get very messy.Big_G_NorthWales said:Looking at the ICM poll today it is remarkable how right across the UK there is a substantial majority against paying a £3 billion exit fee, and the figures for £10 and £20 billion are total rejection including Scotland. Any influence by the ECJ post Brexit is also voted down
Unless I am reading something that is not there these figures must give credence to the voters backing a no deal and us walking away
If these figures are seen in Brussels it must fire a warning shot that the UK will not be taken for mugs and will drive a hard bargain
I would be happy if someone can point out if I have misread the data but I don't think I have.
I am also convinced that notwithstanding the hyperbole the media have made over Spain Theresa May's stance will be widely approved0 -
And the little slice of Nabavi partisan pie above completely fails to take account of the European perspective. It's simply not in their interest to offer us a sweetheart divorce.
0 -
Whatever the exact legal position, there is no possibility of the UK paying anything even remotely like €60bn, or even half that
Half that might be sellable, depending on what we got in return, but of course £60bn was an opening gambit. Claims of being legally required are nonsense, since lawyers always claim they are right, but if it were tested in court who the hell knows, and if it got to that very acrimonious point, things will be so bad we'd not pad even then.
I think this slightly undersells the potential pitfalls for the Tories. People are not necessarily rational, and if it looks, to most people, that the EU are being the unreasonable ones, not May, it might be reasonable that the Tories do not get punishment for that, but if the opposition ejects Corbyn and gets their act together, or there is enough evidence to suggest May's cock ups caused a difficult attitude from the EU, they could suffer quite a bit.
Like dixiedean I'd see that as a competence issue. Labour are not helping make a case to be a better choice there at present, so maybe this is right it wouldn't be a disaster, but it wouldn't be good.0 -
Mr N writes
'A Brexit Breakdown would be a disaster for the UK, as well as for the EU27 – but in purely party-political terms it wouldn’t be a disaster for the Conservative Party."
So how likely is a breakdown. Given the circumstances described I would say quite likely. After all, what would the PM and her team have to lose?0 -
Those are not the only two options. We cannot be seen to be gaining from leaving, but that doesn't mean they have to be seen to be punishing us.Monksfield said:And the little slice of Nabavi partisan pie above completely fails to take account of the European perspective. It's simply not in their interest to offer us a sweetheart divorce.
0 -
The point about the Tories benefiting from Euro-intransigence is not as 'obvious' as Richard appear to think it is.
To my mind, there is a fairly high probability that the Tories self-immolate. The hysterical headbangers have already shown they will not compromise AT ALL. To make matters worse they are happy to scweam and scweam about treacherous euro-turncoats to journalists or to the public at large via Twitter.0 -
Yes, I posted months ago that there is a parallel between invoking Article 50 and joining the ERM in the sense that both events set the ground for an inevitable future political crisis when it becomes clear that we cannot keep pace with Germany. 'Global Britain' is heading for humiliation.dixiedean said:But a Brexit Breakdown would be a disaster for the Tories were it to lead to a dire recession. Like falling out of the ERM, their reputation for competence could be gone (especially without Jeremy).
0 -
The UK should pay to the EU what it is legally obliged to pay, on exit, but no more than that.0
-
" I hope..."williamglenn said:
Yes, I posted months ago that there is a parallel between invoking Article 50 and joining the ERM in the sense that both events set the ground for an inevitable future political crisis when it becomes clear that we cannot keep pace with Germany. 'Global Britain' is heading for humiliation.dixiedean said:But a Brexit Breakdown would be a disaster for the Tories were it to lead to a dire recession. Like falling out of the ERM, their reputation for competence could be gone (especially without Jeremy).
0 -
Excellent thread, Richard. I agree.
Btw, the political way out on the divorce bill is the same as Osborne's "halved the bill" nonsense: we might pay £12bn upfront, and then a further £4bn each year of the three year transition period.
That would look like we're reducing our net contributions straight away, but actually paying off the divorce bill.0 -
Only if there was a credible opposition.dixiedean said:But a Brexit Breakdown would be a disaster for the Tories were it to lead to a dire recession. Like falling out of the ERM, their reputation for competence could be gone (especially without Jeremy).
Otherwise it'd be much more like the 1981 budget.0 -
With all due respect if Brexit is a disaster it's not going to be fairly academic who voters blame for it.0
-
A 35% chance I'd say.OldKingCole said:Mr N writes
'A Brexit Breakdown would be a disaster for the UK, as well as for the EU27 – but in purely party-political terms it wouldn’t be a disaster for the Conservative Party."
So how likely is a breakdown. Given the circumstances described I would say quite likely. After all, what would the PM and her team have to lose?
I'm not convinced both sides are desperate enough to avoid it.0 -
I would predict if blame is to be apportioned I would guess it would break 52 to 48. It has done pretty consistently thus far.0
-
So the White House press secretary thinks the terror attack on the St Petersburg metro that has killed 11 people was "reprehensible". How on earth does such a stupid word get into a statement that probably about three zillion USD were spent on preparing, if you count the share of all the public relations training, etc.? Are they deliberately avoiding the words "terror" and "terrorism"? When someone nail-bombs the tube?
I'm reminded of when the police raided two innocent men in Forest Gate, shot one of them, and later apologised for the "inconvenience" they'd caused.0 -
Lol.williamglenn said:
Yes, I posted months ago that there is a parallel between invoking Article 50 and joining the ERM in the sense that both events set the ground for an inevitable future political crisis when it becomes clear that we cannot keep pace with Germany. 'Global Britain' is heading for humiliation.dixiedean said:But a Brexit Breakdown would be a disaster for the Tories were it to lead to a dire recession. Like falling out of the ERM, their reputation for competence could be gone (especially without Jeremy).
0 -
What is this obsession with Germany? Can someone explain it to me?
I don't feel remotely threatened by them.0 -
A war helped with that.Casino_Royale said:
Only if there was a credible opposition.dixiedean said:But a Brexit Breakdown would be a disaster for the Tories were it to lead to a dire recession. Like falling out of the ERM, their reputation for competence could be gone (especially without Jeremy).
Otherwise it'd be much more like the 1981 budget.0 -
I've got a bit lost on the Brexitloon line.Monksfield said:Theresa's warm words have been interpreted as a threat because they were presented as a threat.
Is it:
Howard off reservation, no blame attached to May.
Howard pursuing a cunning, May sanctioned strategy to calm the ultras.
A carefully aimed & entirely metaphorical shot across the EU bows to display UK virility.
AAAARGH, GET IT UP YOU HISPANOPHONES!
I know it's definitely not a monumental bollox.0 -
Sounds like a re run of Edwards Heath Feb 1974 election campaign.Who governs Britain ? This time with no union involvement just an upset big business class.0
-
How long has this been here?
0 -
Thanks for the thread Nabavi!0
-
A bit lost twice in two days after the ricket on MSP shop fronts yesterday! Take more water with itTheuniondivvie said:
I've got a bit lost on the Brexitloon line.Monksfield said:Theresa's warm words have been interpreted as a threat because they were presented as a threat.
Is it:
Howard off reservation, no blame attached to May.
Howard pursuing a cunning, May sanctioned strategy to calm the ultras.
A carefully aimed & entirely metaphorical shot across the EU bows to display UK virility.
AAAARGH, GET IT UP YOU HISPANOPHONES!
I know it's definitely not a monumental bollox.0 -
It will be interesting to see what arises.Sean_F said:The UK should pay to the EU what it is legally obliged to pay, on exit, but no more than that.
If I were a Greek in Yr10 of austerity, and I heard that the Brits thought the €70k a year pensions in Brussels were a bit excessive, I might be inclined to agree and wonder what the hell I was being subjected to.
Equally, if I was Italian on flatlined growth, or at risk of losing my livelihood as a French fisherman, Dutch food producer, Irish farmer, I might feel a bit aggrieved.
A whole new risk becomes apparent for the EU.
The more open this becomes, the more their internal dissenters will find ammunition to fire at the EU.0 -
Interesting point.chestnut said:
It will be interesting to see what arises.Sean_F said:The UK should pay to the EU what it is legally obliged to pay, on exit, but no more than that.
If I were a Greek in Yr10 of austerity, and I heard that the Brits thought the €70k a year pensions in Brussels were a bit excessive, I might be inclined to agree and wonder what the hell I was being subjected to.
Equally, if I was Italian on flatlined growth, or at risk of losing my livelihood as a French fisherman, Dutch food producer, Irish farmer, I might feel a bit aggrieved.
A whole new risk becomes apparent for the EU.
The more open this becomes, the more their internal dissenters will find ammunition to fire at the EU.0 -
Thanks for your faithful, 24/7 attention to my every post. It means a lot to me.isam said:
A bit lost twice in two days after the ricket on MSP shop fronts yesterday! Take more water with itTheuniondivvie said:
I've got a bit lost on the Brexitloon line.Monksfield said:Theresa's warm words have been interpreted as a threat because they were presented as a threat.
Is it:
Howard off reservation, no blame attached to May.
Howard pursuing a cunning, May sanctioned strategy to calm the ultras.
A carefully aimed & entirely metaphorical shot across the EU bows to display UK virility.
AAAARGH, GET IT UP YOU HISPANOPHONES!
I know it's definitely not a monumental bollox.0 -
All aviation safety operations - airline management, air traffic control and aircradt maintenance - are certified by the European Aviation Safety Authority. If we leave the EU we leave the EASA unless we agree otherwise. We wouldn't be able to walk away from that and there are quite a few other agreements that we would have to sign back up to.GIN1138 said:Thanks Richard. Agree with your conclusion.
FPT
Out of interest what would happen to people that did try to fly out of the country in that situation?FF43 said:
Interesting. I'm pretty sure the EU is not going to budge on the payments. It may not be the full €60 billion, but they will want an enforceable commitment in the tens of billions. We won't walk away, of course. We wouldn't be able to fly out of the country for a start. But it could get very messy.Big_G_NorthWales said:Looking at the ICM poll today it is remarkable how right across the UK there is a substantial majority against paying a £3 billion exit fee, and the figures for £10 and £20 billion are total rejection including Scotland. Any influence by the ECJ post Brexit is also voted down
Unless I am reading something that is not there these figures must give credence to the voters backing a no deal and us walking away
If these figures are seen in Brussels it must fire a warning shot that the UK will not be taken for mugs and will drive a hard bargain
I would be happy if someone can point out if I have misread the data but I don't think I have.
I am also convinced that notwithstanding the hyperbole the media have made over Spain Theresa May's stance will be widely approved0 -
It was hard to miss given the embedded imageTheuniondivvie said:
Thanks for your faithful, 24/7 attention to my every post. It means a lot to me.isam said:
A bit lost twice in two days after the ricket on MSP shop fronts yesterday! Take more water with itTheuniondivvie said:
I've got a bit lost on the Brexitloon line.Monksfield said:Theresa's warm words have been interpreted as a threat because they were presented as a threat.
Is it:
Howard off reservation, no blame attached to May.
Howard pursuing a cunning, May sanctioned strategy to calm the ultras.
A carefully aimed & entirely metaphorical shot across the EU bows to display UK virility.
AAAARGH, GET IT UP YOU HISPANOPHONES!
I know it's definitely not a monumental bollox.
0 -
It would be more valid if the Greek and Italian political classes were living on the breadline.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Interesting point.chestnut said:
It will be interesting to see what arises.Sean_F said:The UK should pay to the EU what it is legally obliged to pay, on exit, but no more than that.
If I were a Greek in Yr10 of austerity, and I heard that the Brits thought the €70k a year pensions in Brussels were a bit excessive, I might be inclined to agree and wonder what the hell I was being subjected to.
Equally, if I was Italian on flatlined growth, or at risk of losing my livelihood as a French fisherman, Dutch food producer, Irish farmer, I might feel a bit aggrieved.
A whole new risk becomes apparent for the EU.
The more open this becomes, the more their internal dissenters will find ammunition to fire at the EU.0 -
I believe that this is a very fair summary as we start this process and entirely in line with today's ICM poll. The Spain - Gibraltar spat will have had no adverse effect on Theresa May and tonights pictures from Jordan with the military will have done her no harm.RobD said:Thanks for the thread Nabavi!
The UK will not be bullied by the EU and I do believe it is the EU who have shot themselves in the foot with stupid ransom demands of 50 billion pounds and introducing division over Spain - Gibraltar.
I expect that Theresa May feels very confident that she has shown the right tone and it is the EU who are on the backfoot. Continue with stupid comments from Junckers et al and not only will the EU be deminished here but also outside Europe0 -
Awwwww. If ye goona be a smawt ass ye cannae complain when yer ricks ger spoootedTheuniondivvie said:
Thanks for your faithful, 24/7 attention to my every post. It means a lot to me.isam said:
A bit lost twice in two days after the ricket on MSP shop fronts yesterday! Take more water with itTheuniondivvie said:
I've got a bit lost on the Brexitloon line.Monksfield said:Theresa's warm words have been interpreted as a threat because they were presented as a threat.
Is it:
Howard off reservation, no blame attached to May.
Howard pursuing a cunning, May sanctioned strategy to calm the ultras.
A carefully aimed & entirely metaphorical shot across the EU bows to display UK virility.
AAAARGH, GET IT UP YOU HISPANOPHONES!
I know it's definitely not a monumental bollox.0 -
What does the US do ?FF43 said:
All aviation safety operations - airline management, air traffic control and aircradt maintenance - are certified by the European Aviation Safety Authority. If we leave the EU we leave the EASA unless we agree otherwise. We wouldn't be able to walk away from that and there are quite a few other agreements that we would have to sign back up to.GIN1138 said:Thanks Richard. Agree with your conclusion.
FPT
Out of interest what would happen to people that did try to fly out of the country in that situation?FF43 said:
Interesting. I'm pretty sure the EU is not going to budge on the payments. It may not be the full €60 billion, but they will want an enforceable commitment in the tens of billions. We won't walk away, of course. We wouldn't be able to fly out of the country for a start. But it could get very messy.Big_G_NorthWales said:Looking at the ICM poll today it is remarkable how right across the UK there is a substantial majority against paying a £3 billion exit fee, and the figures for £10 and £20 billion are total rejection including Scotland. Any influence by the ECJ post Brexit is also voted down
Unless I am reading something that is not there these figures must give credence to the voters backing a no deal and us walking away
If these figures are seen in Brussels it must fire a warning shot that the UK will not be taken for mugs and will drive a hard bargain
I would be happy if someone can point out if I have misread the data but I don't think I have.
I am also convinced that notwithstanding the hyperbole the media have made over Spain Theresa May's stance will be widely approved0 -
Cheeky questionPulpstar said:
What does the US do ?FF43 said:
All aviation safety operations - airline management, air traffic control and aircradt maintenance - are certified by the European Aviation Safety Authority. If we leave the EU we leave the EASA unless we agree otherwise. We wouldn't be able to walk away from that and there are quite a few other agreements that we would have to sign back up to.GIN1138 said:Thanks Richard. Agree with your conclusion.
FPT
Out of interest what would happen to people that did try to fly out of the country in that situation?FF43 said:
Interesting. I'm pretty sure the EU is not going to budge on the payments. It may not be the full €60 billion, but they will want an enforceable commitment in the tens of billions. We won't walk away, of course. We wouldn't be able to fly out of the country for a start. But it could get very messy.Big_G_NorthWales said:Looking at the ICM poll today it is remarkable how right across the UK there is a substantial majority against paying a £3 billion exit fee, and the figures for £10 and £20 billion are total rejection including Scotland. Any influence by the ECJ post Brexit is also voted down
Unless I am reading something that is not there these figures must give credence to the voters backing a no deal and us walking away
If these figures are seen in Brussels it must fire a warning shot that the UK will not be taken for mugs and will drive a hard bargain
I would be happy if someone can point out if I have misread the data but I don't think I have.
I am also convinced that notwithstanding the hyperbole the media have made over Spain Theresa May's stance will be widely approved 0 -
OK, then: put it this way.williamglenn said:
It would be more valid if the Greek and Italian political classes were living on the breadline.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Interesting point.chestnut said:
It will be interesting to see what arises.Sean_F said:The UK should pay to the EU what it is legally obliged to pay, on exit, but no more than that.
If I were a Greek in Yr10 of austerity, and I heard that the Brits thought the €70k a year pensions in Brussels were a bit excessive, I might be inclined to agree and wonder what the hell I was being subjected to.
Equally, if I was Italian on flatlined growth, or at risk of losing my livelihood as a French fisherman, Dutch food producer, Irish farmer, I might feel a bit aggrieved.
A whole new risk becomes apparent for the EU.
The more open this becomes, the more their internal dissenters will find ammunition to fire at the EU.
The EU SHOULD be worried about coming across as a well-funded gravy train when it asks Britain to foot the bill. Whether it WILL, I don't know.0 -
Very good point and entirely probableTheWhiteRabbit said:
Interesting point.chestnut said:
It will be interesting to see what arises.Sean_F said:The UK should pay to the EU what it is legally obliged to pay, on exit, but no more than that.
If I were a Greek in Yr10 of austerity, and I heard that the Brits thought the €70k a year pensions in Brussels were a bit excessive, I might be inclined to agree and wonder what the hell I was being subjected to.
Equally, if I was Italian on flatlined growth, or at risk of losing my livelihood as a French fisherman, Dutch food producer, Irish farmer, I might feel a bit aggrieved.
A whole new risk becomes apparent for the EU.
The more open this becomes, the more their internal dissenters will find ammunition to fire at the EU.0 -
I can offer some advice on this area.Theuniondivvie said:
Thanks for your faithful, 24/7 attention to my every post. It means a lot to me.isam said:
A bit lost twice in two days after the ricket on MSP shop fronts yesterday! Take more water with itTheuniondivvie said:
I've got a bit lost on the Brexitloon line.Monksfield said:Theresa's warm words have been interpreted as a threat because they were presented as a threat.
Is it:
Howard off reservation, no blame attached to May.
Howard pursuing a cunning, May sanctioned strategy to calm the ultras.
A carefully aimed & entirely metaphorical shot across the EU bows to display UK virility.
AAAARGH, GET IT UP YOU HISPANOPHONES!
I know it's definitely not a monumental bollox.0 -
How do you think the foreign press are reporting it? Note that both examples below use 'Brexit Britain' pejoratively.Big_G_NorthWales said:I expect that Theresa May feels very confident that she has shown the right tone and it is the EU who are on the backfoot. Continue with stupid comments from Junckers et al and not only will the EU be deminished here but also outside Europe
Washington Post: Dispute over Gibraltar reveals hotheadedness of post-Brexit Britain
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/04/02/brexit-could-give-spain-major-bargaining-power-over-gibraltar/
Sydney Morning Herald: Downing Street has explicitly ruled out that Brexit Britain will go to war with Spain over Gibraltar - an extraordinary step made necessary after it backed a former Conservative party leader's sabre-rattling comments over Britain's big Mediterranean rock.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/jaw-jaw-not-war-war-theresa-may-hoses-down-talk-of-war-with-spain-over-gibraltar-20170403-gvcx4l.html0 -
A geezer trying to do Scotch is always good for a laugh. I'm sure a hilarious Krankie or haggis reference is seconds away.isam said:
Awwwww. If ye goona be a smawt ass ye cannae complain when yer ricks ger spoootedTheuniondivvie said:
Thanks for your faithful, 24/7 attention to my every post. It means a lot to me.isam said:
A bit lost twice in two days after the ricket on MSP shop fronts yesterday! Take more water with itTheuniondivvie said:
I've got a bit lost on the Brexitloon line.Monksfield said:Theresa's warm words have been interpreted as a threat because they were presented as a threat.
Is it:
Howard off reservation, no blame attached to May.
Howard pursuing a cunning, May sanctioned strategy to calm the ultras.
A carefully aimed & entirely metaphorical shot across the EU bows to display UK virility.
AAAARGH, GET IT UP YOU HISPANOPHONES!
I know it's definitely not a monumental bollox.0 -
Oh what a shame!williamglenn said:
How do you think the foreign press are reporting it?Big_G_NorthWales said:I expect that Theresa May feels very confident that she has shown the right tone and it is the EU who are on the backfoot. Continue with stupid comments from Junckers et al and not only will the EU be deminished here but also outside Europe
Washington Post: Dispute over Gibraltar reveals hotheadedness of post-Brexit Britain
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/04/02/brexit-could-give-spain-major-bargaining-power-over-gibraltar/
Sydney Morning Herald: Downing Street has explicitly ruled out that Brexit Britain will go to war with Spain over Gibraltar - an extraordinary step made necessary after it backed a former Conservative party leader's sabre-rattling comments over Britain's big Mediterranean rock.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/jaw-jaw-not-war-war-theresa-may-hoses-down-talk-of-war-with-spain-over-gibraltar-20170403-gvcx4l.html0 -
On topic, elegantly written as usual Richard though I fear your last paragraph might be Herculean in its optimism.0
-
Will I get a slapRobD said:
Cheeky questionPulpstar said:
What does the US do ?FF43 said:
All aviation safety operations - airline management, air traffic control and aircradt maintenance - are certified by the European Aviation Safety Authority. If we leave the EU we leave the EASA unless we agree otherwise. We wouldn't be able to walk away from that and there are quite a few other agreements that we would have to sign back up to.GIN1138 said:Thanks Richard. Agree with your conclusion.
FPT
Out of interest what would happen to people that did try to fly out of the country in that situation?FF43 said:
Interesting. I'm pretty sure the EU is not going to budge on the payments. It may not be the full €60 billion, but they will want an enforceable commitment in the tens of billions. We won't walk away, of course. We wouldn't be able to fly out of the country for a start. But it could get very messy.Big_G_NorthWales said:Looking at the ICM poll today it is remarkable how right across the UK there is a substantial majority against paying a £3 billion exit fee, and the figures for £10 and £20 billion are total rejection including Scotland. Any influence by the ECJ post Brexit is also voted down
Unless I am reading something that is not there these figures must give credence to the voters backing a no deal and us walking away
If these figures are seen in Brussels it must fire a warning shot that the UK will not be taken for mugs and will drive a hard bargain
I would be happy if someone can point out if I have misread the data but I don't think I have.
I am also convinced that notwithstanding the hyperbole the media have made over Spain Theresa May's stance will be widely approved ? 0 -
Right enoughTheuniondivvie said:
A geezer trying to do Scotch is always good for a laugh. I'm sure a Krankie or haggis reference is seconds away.isam said:
Awwwww. If ye goona be a smawt ass ye cannae complain when yer ricks ger spoootedTheuniondivvie said:
Thanks for your faithful, 24/7 attention to my every post. It means a lot to me.isam said:
A bit lost twice in two days after the ricket on MSP shop fronts yesterday! Take more water with itTheuniondivvie said:
I've got a bit lost on the Brexitloon line.Monksfield said:Theresa's warm words have been interpreted as a threat because they were presented as a threat.
Is it:
Howard off reservation, no blame attached to May.
Howard pursuing a cunning, May sanctioned strategy to calm the ultras.
A carefully aimed & entirely metaphorical shot across the EU bows to display UK virility.
AAAARGH, GET IT UP YOU HISPANOPHONES!
I know it's definitely not a monumental bollox.0 -
Bloody Anglosphere, talking down Brexit Britain!RobD said:
Oh what a shame!williamglenn said:
How do you think the foreign press are reporting it?Big_G_NorthWales said:I expect that Theresa May feels very confident that she has shown the right tone and it is the EU who are on the backfoot. Continue with stupid comments from Junckers et al and not only will the EU be deminished here but also outside Europe
Washington Post: Dispute over Gibraltar reveals hotheadedness of post-Brexit Britain
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/04/02/brexit-could-give-spain-major-bargaining-power-over-gibraltar/
Sydney Morning Herald: Downing Street has explicitly ruled out that Brexit Britain will go to war with Spain over Gibraltar - an extraordinary step made necessary after it backed a former Conservative party leader's sabre-rattling comments over Britain's big Mediterranean rock.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/jaw-jaw-not-war-war-theresa-may-hoses-down-talk-of-war-with-spain-over-gibraltar-20170403-gvcx4l.html0 -
Wee Jimmy lives in Coventry apparently.Theuniondivvie said:
A geezer trying to do Scotch is always good for a laugh. I'm sure a hilarious Krankie or haggis reference is seconds away.isam said:
Awwwww. If ye goona be a smawt ass ye cannae complain when yer ricks ger spoootedTheuniondivvie said:
Thanks for your faithful, 24/7 attention to my every post. It means a lot to me.isam said:
A bit lost twice in two days after the ricket on MSP shop fronts yesterday! Take more water with itTheuniondivvie said:
I've got a bit lost on the Brexitloon line.Monksfield said:Theresa's warm words have been interpreted as a threat because they were presented as a threat.
Is it:
Howard off reservation, no blame attached to May.
Howard pursuing a cunning, May sanctioned strategy to calm the ultras.
A carefully aimed & entirely metaphorical shot across the EU bows to display UK virility.
AAAARGH, GET IT UP YOU HISPANOPHONES!
I know it's definitely not a monumental bollox.0 -
More metropolitan elite experts... who needs 'em!williamglenn said:
Bloody Anglosphere, talking down Brexit Britain!RobD said:
Oh what a shame!williamglenn said:
How do you think the foreign press are reporting it?Big_G_NorthWales said:I expect that Theresa May feels very confident that she has shown the right tone and it is the EU who are on the backfoot. Continue with stupid comments from Junckers et al and not only will the EU be deminished here but also outside Europe
Washington Post: Dispute over Gibraltar reveals hotheadedness of post-Brexit Britain
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/04/02/brexit-could-give-spain-major-bargaining-power-over-gibraltar/
Sydney Morning Herald: Downing Street has explicitly ruled out that Brexit Britain will go to war with Spain over Gibraltar - an extraordinary step made necessary after it backed a former Conservative party leader's sabre-rattling comments over Britain's big Mediterranean rock.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/jaw-jaw-not-war-war-theresa-may-hoses-down-talk-of-war-with-spain-over-gibraltar-20170403-gvcx4l.html0 -
Are there autocorrect issues with that? Why would anyone enjoin Spanish speakers to achieve erections?Theuniondivvie said:
I've got a bit lost on the Brexitloon line.Monksfield said:Theresa's warm words have been interpreted as a threat because they were presented as a threat.
Is it:
Howard off reservation, no blame attached to May.
Howard pursuing a cunning, May sanctioned strategy to calm the ultras.
A carefully aimed & entirely metaphorical shot across the EU bows to display UK virility.
AAAARGH, GET IT UP YOU HISPANOPHONES!
I know it's definitely not a monumental bollox.
0 -
I'm all ears.TheScreamingEagles said:
I can offer some advice on this area.Theuniondivvie said:
Thanks for your faithful, 24/7 attention to my every post. It means a lot to me.isam said:
A bit lost twice in two days after the ricket on MSP shop fronts yesterday! Take more water with itTheuniondivvie said:
I've got a bit lost on the Brexitloon line.Monksfield said:Theresa's warm words have been interpreted as a threat because they were presented as a threat.
Is it:
Howard off reservation, no blame attached to May.
Howard pursuing a cunning, May sanctioned strategy to calm the ultras.
A carefully aimed & entirely metaphorical shot across the EU bows to display UK virility.
AAAARGH, GET IT UP YOU HISPANOPHONES!
I know it's definitely not a monumental bollox.0 -
These are 2 of the prime countries for Global Britain's free trade deals!williamglenn said:
How do you think the foreign press are reporting it? Note that both examples below use 'Brexit Britain' pejoratively.Big_G_NorthWales said:I expect that Theresa May feels very confident that she has shown the right tone and it is the EU who are on the backfoot. Continue with stupid comments from Junckers et al and not only will the EU be deminished here but also outside Europe
Washington Post: Dispute over Gibraltar reveals hotheadedness of post-Brexit Britain
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/04/02/brexit-could-give-spain-major-bargaining-power-over-gibraltar/
Sydney Morning Herald: Downing Street has explicitly ruled out that Brexit Britain will go to war with Spain over Gibraltar - an extraordinary step made necessary after it backed a former Conservative party leader's sabre-rattling comments over Britain's big Mediterranean rock.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/jaw-jaw-not-war-war-theresa-may-hoses-down-talk-of-war-with-spain-over-gibraltar-20170403-gvcx4l.html0 -
Interesting thread Mr Nabavi, cheers. – Indeed, ‘a Brexit Breakdown would be a disaster’ imho, hopefully once the pre negotiation posturing has ended, each side will buckle down and focus on a mutually beneficial outcome for both the UK and EU. - Not sure how helpful the UK papers/media will be, probably best ignored for the next 18 months.
0 -
You really think such deals will hinge on reporting from several years previous?dixiedean said:
These are 2 of the prime countries for Global Britain's free trade deals!williamglenn said:
How do you think the foreign press are reporting it? Note that both examples below use 'Brexit Britain' pejoratively.Big_G_NorthWales said:I expect that Theresa May feels very confident that she has shown the right tone and it is the EU who are on the backfoot. Continue with stupid comments from Junckers et al and not only will the EU be deminished here but also outside Europe
Washington Post: Dispute over Gibraltar reveals hotheadedness of post-Brexit Britain
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/04/02/brexit-could-give-spain-major-bargaining-power-over-gibraltar/
Sydney Morning Herald: Downing Street has explicitly ruled out that Brexit Britain will go to war with Spain over Gibraltar - an extraordinary step made necessary after it backed a former Conservative party leader's sabre-rattling comments over Britain's big Mediterranean rock.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/jaw-jaw-not-war-war-theresa-may-hoses-down-talk-of-war-with-spain-over-gibraltar-20170403-gvcx4l.html0 -
It is how the British will see it and in time the EU are going to look less and less like a body you want to be involved in.williamglenn said:
How do you think the foreign press are reporting it?Big_G_NorthWales said:I expect that Theresa May feels very confident that she has shown the right tone and it is the EU who are on the backfoot. Continue with stupid comments from Junckers et al and not only will the EU be deminished here but also outside Europe
Washington Post: Dispute over Gibraltar reveals hotheadedness of post-Brexit Britain
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/04/02/brexit-could-give-spain-major-bargaining-power-over-gibraltar/
Sydney Morning Herald: Downing Street has explicitly ruled out that Brexit Britain will go to war with Spain over Gibraltar - an extraordinary step made necessary after it backed a former Conservative party leader's sabre-rattling comments over Britain's big Mediterranean rock.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/jaw-jaw-not-war-war-theresa-may-hoses-down-talk-of-war-with-spain-over-gibraltar-20170403-gvcx4l.html
As these details get into the finance the excesses of the EU with two Parliament buildings and bureaucratic gravy trains with excessive pensions a fracture will open between Brussels and the peoples across the EU0 -
I'm genuinely curious - what do you consider more important - the economic future of the United Kingdom or the political survival of Theresa May ?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I believe that this is a very fair summary as we start this process and entirely in line with today's ICM poll. The Spain - Gibraltar spat will have had no adverse effect on Theresa May and tonights pictures from Jordan with the military will have done her no harm.
The UK will not be bullied by the EU and I do believe it is the EU who have shot themselves in the foot with stupid ransom demands of 50 billion pounds and introducing division over Spain - Gibraltar.
I expect that Theresa May feels very confident that she has shown the right tone and it is the EU who are on the backfoot. Continue with stupid comments from Junckers et al and not only will the EU be deminished here but also outside Europe
We are now seeing the inevitable spin - if it's a good deal for Britain, it's good for Theresa May but apparently if it's a bad deal or no deal it's also good for Theresa May.
Now, even I know you can't have it both ways and eventually every politician has to make a choice between the best for their country and their personal popularity because sometimes what's good for the country won't be good for you politically or personally.
When May reaches that point - when she has to make a decision in the negotiations that will be the right thing overall but will be bad for her because, perhaps, it will contradict an earlier policy pronouncement, what then ?
I know you'll die in the ditch for her - I won't, why should I ? Doesn't mean I don't want what's best for Britain - it does mean I don't necessarily want what's best for Theresa May.
0 -
Interesting post. It is important to understand where the EU negotiators are coming from. They want us to agree to most of what they are asking for, without us imposing burdens on them. They have set up their negotiating strategy so that we do agree. Now they may miscalculate or balls things up, but as long as we sign on the dotted line, they don't care about our feelings. They have calculated we won't walk away because of the payments, so there's no reason for them to dial back on one of their key requirements.
Given the tight timetable, the complexity of disengagement, that Theresa May wants Brexit to be a success, that no-one has prepared the British public for real costs of Brexit like high unemployment and, importantly, because the EU looks to offer eventually what the UK wants on trade, I think they are probably correct.0 -
OT - but linked to the last one:
Vote Intention:
Students: Con 41: Labour 35
BAME: Labour 44: Con 33
Remain: Con 37: Labour 310 -
In the first week of triggering Article 50, we've been mostly discussing going to war with Spain, this does not fill me with confidence about the whole process.
Fortunately we've got Liam Fox, David Davis, and Boris Johnson to fix it.
Oh....,0 -
She reached that point months ago, and chose Party over country instantlystodge said:Now, even I know you can't have it both ways and eventually every politician has to make a choice between the best for their country and their personal popularity because sometimes what's good for the country won't be good for you politically or personally.
When May reaches that point0 -
We sent her there after the swinging revelations.Pulpstar said:
Wee Jimmy lives in Coventry apparently.Theuniondivvie said:
A geezer trying to do Scotch is always good for a laugh. I'm sure a hilarious Krankie or haggis reference is seconds away.isam said:
Awwwww. If ye goona be a smawt ass ye cannae complain when yer ricks ger spoootedTheuniondivvie said:
Thanks for your faithful, 24/7 attention to my every post. It means a lot to me.isam said:
A bit lost twice in two days after the ricket on MSP shop fronts yesterday! Take more water with itTheuniondivvie said:
I've got a bit lost on the Brexitloon line.Monksfield said:Theresa's warm words have been interpreted as a threat because they were presented as a threat.
Is it:
Howard off reservation, no blame attached to May.
Howard pursuing a cunning, May sanctioned strategy to calm the ultras.
A carefully aimed & entirely metaphorical shot across the EU bows to display UK virility.
AAAARGH, GET IT UP YOU HISPANOPHONES!
I know it's definitely not a monumental bollox.0 -
Davis has been receiving pretty good reviews in recent weeks/months. And to be fair to Boris, I think his statement wasn't that unhinged, just saying that the settlement cannot change without the consent of the locals.TheScreamingEagles said:In the first week of triggering Article 50, we've been mostly discussing going to war with Spain, this does not fill me with confidence about the whole process.
Fortunately we've got Liam Fox, David Davis, and Boris Johnson to fix it.
Oh....,0 -
Well tonight I've just taken 3 diazepam in one go instead of one three times a day.Theuniondivvie said:
I'm all ears.TheScreamingEagles said:
I can offer some advice on this area.Theuniondivvie said:
Thanks for your faithful, 24/7 attention to my every post. It means a lot to me.isam said:
A bit lost twice in two days after the ricket on MSP shop fronts yesterday! Take more water with itTheuniondivvie said:
I've got a bit lost on the Brexitloon line.Monksfield said:Theresa's warm words have been interpreted as a threat because they were presented as a threat.
Is it:
Howard off reservation, no blame attached to May.
Howard pursuing a cunning, May sanctioned strategy to calm the ultras.
A carefully aimed & entirely metaphorical shot across the EU bows to display UK virility.
AAAARGH, GET IT UP YOU HISPANOPHONES!
I know it's definitely not a monumental bollox.0 -
No, but there are impressions created. If you honestly think the ravings of Howard go unnoticed by politicians and diplomats overseas.RobD said:
You really think such deals will hinge on reporting from several years previous?dixiedean said:
These are 2 of the prime countries for Global Britain's free trade deals!williamglenn said:
How do you think the foreign press are reporting it? Note that both examples below use 'Brexit Britain' pejoratively.Big_G_NorthWales said:I expect that Theresa May feels very confident that she has shown the right tone and it is the EU who are on the backfoot. Continue with stupid comments from Junckers et al and not only will the EU be deminished here but also outside Europe
Washington Post: Dispute over Gibraltar reveals hotheadedness of post-Brexit Britain
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/04/02/brexit-could-give-spain-major-bargaining-power-over-gibraltar/
Sydney Morning Herald: Downing Street has explicitly ruled out that Brexit Britain will go to war with Spain over Gibraltar - an extraordinary step made necessary after it backed a former Conservative party leader's sabre-rattling comments over Britain's big Mediterranean rock.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/jaw-jaw-not-war-war-theresa-may-hoses-down-talk-of-war-with-spain-over-gibraltar-20170403-gvcx4l.html0 -
I doubt it'll be remembered when such negotiations start in earnest.dixiedean said:
No, but there are impressions created. If you honestly think the ravings of Howard go unnoticed by politicians and diplomats overseas.RobD said:
You really think such deals will hinge on reporting from several years previous?dixiedean said:
These are 2 of the prime countries for Global Britain's free trade deals!williamglenn said:
How do you think the foreign press are reporting it? Note that both examples below use 'Brexit Britain' pejoratively.Big_G_NorthWales said:I expect that Theresa May feels very confident that she has shown the right tone and it is the EU who are on the backfoot. Continue with stupid comments from Junckers et al and not only will the EU be deminished here but also outside Europe
Washington Post: Dispute over Gibraltar reveals hotheadedness of post-Brexit Britain
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/04/02/brexit-could-give-spain-major-bargaining-power-over-gibraltar/
Sydney Morning Herald: Downing Street has explicitly ruled out that Brexit Britain will go to war with Spain over Gibraltar - an extraordinary step made necessary after it backed a former Conservative party leader's sabre-rattling comments over Britain's big Mediterranean rock.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/jaw-jaw-not-war-war-theresa-may-hoses-down-talk-of-war-with-spain-over-gibraltar-20170403-gvcx4l.html0 -
In the land of the blind...RobD said:
Davis has been receiving pretty good reviews in recent weeks/months. And to be fair to Boris, I think his statement wasn't that unhinged, just saying that the settlement cannot change without the consent of the locals.TheScreamingEagles said:In the first week of triggering Article 50, we've been mostly discussing going to war with Spain, this does not fill me with confidence about the whole process.
Fortunately we've got Liam Fox, David Davis, and Boris Johnson to fix it.
Oh....,
His revelations about the lack of thinking about or preparation for a no-deal outcome didn't do much for the credibility of the Hard Brexit bluff.0 -
The size of the one-off payment only becomes an issue if the Gvt is stupid enough to offer it as a reason for not keeping the promise on the NHS.
As dean says, how the real economy goes is what matters. Plus a whole host of smaller but important potential niggles like whether we need an esta-type visa to travel to Europe, whether the duty free allowances return to the meagre pre-EU levels, the cost of travel insurance once we lose the E111 protection, whether universities charge more for courses when they lose foreign students, etc, etc.0 -
Well if we're going to take account of the consent of locals, Scotland will be remaining a member of the EU.RobD said:
Davis has been receiving pretty good reviews in recent weeks/months. And to be fair to Boris, I think his statement wasn't that unhinged, just saying that the settlement cannot change without the consent of the locals.TheScreamingEagles said:In the first week of triggering Article 50, we've been mostly discussing going to war with Spain, this does not fill me with confidence about the whole process.
Fortunately we've got Liam Fox, David Davis, and Boris Johnson to fix it.
Oh....,
0 -
Who are Labour trying to appeal to at the next GE btw ?0
-
Scotland didn't have an individual vote on EU membership, neither did Gibraltar.TheScreamingEagles said:
Well if we're going to take account of the consent of locals, Scotland will be remaining a member of the EU.RobD said:
Davis has been receiving pretty good reviews in recent weeks/months. And to be fair to Boris, I think his statement wasn't that unhinged, just saying that the settlement cannot change without the consent of the locals.TheScreamingEagles said:In the first week of triggering Article 50, we've been mostly discussing going to war with Spain, this does not fill me with confidence about the whole process.
Fortunately we've got Liam Fox, David Davis, and Boris Johnson to fix it.
Oh....,0 -
I'm confused about these good reviews of David Davis. In December he was saying a transitional deal would only be necessary to be 'kind' to the EU and that immigration would fall because of the skills and apprenticeships programs that were going to be introduced. Now he's saying a transitional deal is necessary and that immigration won't fall at all.RobD said:
Davis has been receiving pretty good reviews in recent weeks/months. And to be fair to Boris, I think his statement wasn't that unhinged, just saying that the settlement cannot change without the consent of the locals.TheScreamingEagles said:In the first week of triggering Article 50, we've been mostly discussing going to war with Spain, this does not fill me with confidence about the whole process.
Fortunately we've got Liam Fox, David Davis, and Boris Johnson to fix it.
Oh....,
He seems like a particularly slow on the job learner.0 -
It has the Federal Aviation Authority, which has mutual recognition of the competence of the EASA. Eventually the UK will create its own authority but there is no way they can get the expertise and organisation in place within two years and also get the mutual recognition.Pulpstar said:
What does the US do ?FF43 said:
All aviation safety operations - airline management, air traffic control and aircradt maintenance - are certified by the European Aviation Safety Authority. If we leave the EU we leave the EASA unless we agree otherwise. We wouldn't be able to walk away from that and there are quite a few other agreements that we would have to sign back up to.
As a general comment, the UK has made virtually no preparation for a Hard Brexit. It would already be setting up these bodies by now if it were.
0 -
The public opinion will be the driving factor and on the ICM polling tonight no Prime Minister could sell the divorce sums expressed by the EU. I want the best outcome for the UK and I believe Theresa May is the best person to achieve that. I might also add that David Davis is proving that he has a pleasant and uncontroversial negotiating skill that will be the equal of Barnier.stodge said:
I'm genuinely curious - what do you consider more important - the economic future of the United Kingdom or the political survival of Theresa May ?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I believe that this is a very fair summary as we start this process and entirely in line with today's ICM poll. The Spain - Gibraltar spat will have had no adverse effect on Theresa May and tonights pictures from Jordan with the military will have done her no harm.
The UK will not be bullied by the EU and I do believe it is the EU who have shot themselves in the foot with stupid ransom demands of 50 billion pounds and introducing division over Spain - Gibraltar.
I expect that Theresa May feels very confident that she has shown the right tone and it is the EU who are on the backfoot. Continue with stupid comments from Junckers et al and not only will the EU be deminished here but also outside Europe
We are now seeing the inevitable spin - if it's a good deal for Britain, it's good for Theresa May but apparently if it's a bad deal or no deal it's also good for Theresa May.
Now, even I know you can't have it both ways and eventually every politician has to make a choice between the best for their country and their personal popularity because sometimes what's good for the country won't be good for you politically or personally.
When May reaches that point - when she has to make a decision in the negotiations that will be the right thing overall but will be bad for her because, perhaps, it will contradict an earlier policy pronouncement, what then ?
I know you'll die in the ditch for her - I won't, why should I ? Doesn't mean I don't want what's best for Britain - it does mean I don't necessarily want what's best for Theresa May.0 -
There are plenty of non-EU countries that agree within their national law to be regulated according to EASA rules (or its predecessor the JAA). For example Turkey, Switzerland and the EFTA states.FF43 said:
All aviation safety operations - airline management, air traffic control and aircradt maintenance - are certified by the European Aviation Safety Authority. If we leave the EU we leave the EASA unless we agree otherwise. We wouldn't be able to walk away from that and there are quite a few other agreements that we would have to sign back up to.GIN1138 said:Thanks Richard. Agree with your conclusion.
FPT
Out of interest what would happen to people that did try to fly out of the country in that situation?FF43 said:
Interesting. I'm pretty sure the EU is not going to budge on the payments. It may not be the full €60 billion, but they will want an enforceable commitment in the tens of billions. We won't walk away, of course. We wouldn't be able to fly out of the country for a start. But it could get very messy.Big_G_NorthWales said:Looking at the ICM poll today it is remarkable how right across the UK there is a substantial majority against paying a £3 billion exit fee, and the figures for £10 and £20 billion are total rejection including Scotland. Any influence by the ECJ post Brexit is also voted down
Unless I am reading something that is not there these figures must give credence to the voters backing a no deal and us walking away
If these figures are seen in Brussels it must fire a warning shot that the UK will not be taken for mugs and will drive a hard bargain
I would be happy if someone can point out if I have misread the data but I don't think I have.
I am also convinced that notwithstanding the hyperbole the media have made over Spain Theresa May's stance will be widely approved
The relevant legislation will be passed in the UK as part of the EU Repeal Bill and amended later if required - most of them originated in English Law to start with! There's no chance that the UK leaving the EU will lead to planes being grounded or some sort of civil air war across Europe.0 -
What. That when the first sign of difficulty arises we have politicians and newspapers talking about war? You are very trusting of our partners.RobD said:
I doubt it'll be remembered when such negotiations start in earnest.dixiedean said:
No, but there are impressions created. If you honestly think the ravings of Howard go unnoticed by politicians and diplomats overseas.RobD said:
You really think such deals will hinge on reporting from several years previous?dixiedean said:
These are 2 of the prime countries for Global Britain's free trade deals!williamglenn said:
How do you think the foreign press are reporting it? Note that both examples below use 'Brexit Britain' pejoratively.Big_G_NorthWales said:I expect that Theresa May feels very confident that she has shown the right tone and it is the EU who are on the backfoot. Continue with stupid comments from Junckers et al and not only will the EU be deminished here but also outside Europe
Washington Post: Dispute over Gibraltar reveals hotheadedness of post-Brexit Britain
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/04/02/brexit-could-give-spain-major-bargaining-power-over-gibraltar/
Sydney Morning Herald: Downing Street has explicitly ruled out that Brexit Britain will go to war with Spain over Gibraltar - an extraordinary step made necessary after it backed a former Conservative party leader's sabre-rattling comments over Britain's big Mediterranean rock.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/jaw-jaw-not-war-war-theresa-may-hoses-down-talk-of-war-with-spain-over-gibraltar-20170403-gvcx4l.html0 -
We've sorted out the colour of our new passport - what more preparation do we need?FF43 said:
As a general comment, the UK has made virtually no preparation for a Hard Brexit. It would already be setting up these bodies by now if it were.Pulpstar said:
What does the US do ?FF43 said:
All aviation safety operations - airline management, air traffic control and aircradt maintenance - are certified by the European Aviation Safety Authority. If we leave the EU we leave the EASA unless we agree otherwise. We wouldn't be able to walk away from that and there are quite a few other agreements that we would have to sign back up to.
0 -
From Cameron's original referendum decision through to the type of Brexit deal we get this has always been as much to do with what's best for the Conservative Party rather than what's best for the country. RN's article seems more concerned about how a Brexit disaster would impact on Theresa May than the impact on those that would suffer from it.stodge said:
I'm genuinely curious - what do you consider more important - the economic future of the United Kingdom or the political survival of Theresa May ?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I believe that this is a very fair summary as we start this process and entirely in line with today's ICM poll. The Spain - Gibraltar spat will have had no adverse effect on Theresa May and tonights pictures from Jordan with the military will have done her no harm.
The UK will not be bullied by the EU and I do believe it is the EU who have shot themselves in the foot with stupid ransom demands of 50 billion pounds and introducing division over Spain - Gibraltar.
I expect that Theresa May feels very confident that she has shown the right tone and it is the EU who are on the backfoot. Continue with stupid comments from Junckers et al and not only will the EU be deminished here but also outside Europe
We are now seeing the inevitable spin - if it's a good deal for Britain, it's good for Theresa May but apparently if it's a bad deal or no deal it's also good for Theresa May.
Now, even I know you can't have it both ways and eventually every politician has to make a choice between the best for their country and their personal popularity because sometimes what's good for the country won't be good for you politically or personally.
When May reaches that point - when she has to make a decision in the negotiations that will be the right thing overall but will be bad for her because, perhaps, it will contradict an earlier policy pronouncement, what then ?
I know you'll die in the ditch for her - I won't, why should I ? Doesn't mean I don't want what's best for Britain - it does mean I don't necessarily want what's best for Theresa May.0 -
The ICM is utterly emphatic. The notion of a 'divorce bill' or an 'exit fee' is toxic.FF43 said:They have calculated we won't walk away because of the payments, so there's no reason for them to dial back on one of their key requirements.
Given the tight timetable, the complexity of disengagement, that Theresa May wants Brexit to be a success, that no-one has prepared the British public for real costs of Brexit like high unemployment and, importantly, because the EU looks to offer eventually what the UK wants on trade, I think they are probably correct.
The public will expect the government to tell the EU to fuck off and manage it through, blaming the EU all the way.
The EU, and the Remain grumblers in this country, really need to think about how they discuss this if they'd prefer to avoid the 'fuck you' scenario..0 -
May is the least worst option for me, that is it. If someone more competent comes along then I would hear them out, but there really isn't anyone with seniority right now so we are stuck.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The public opinion will be the driving factor and on the ICM polling tonight no Prime Minister could sell the divorce sums expressed by the EU. I want the best outcome for the UK and I believe Theresa May is the best person to achieve that. I might also add that David Davis is proving that he has a pleasant and uncontroversial negotiating skill that will be the equal of Barnier.stodge said:
I'm genuinely curious - what do you consider more important - the economic future of the United Kingdom or the political survival of Theresa May ?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I believe that this is a very fair summary as we start this process and entirely in line with today's ICM poll. The Spain - Gibraltar spat will have had no adverse effect on Theresa May and tonights pictures from Jordan with the military will have done her no harm.
The UK will not be bullied by the EU and I do believe it is the EU who have shot themselves in the foot with stupid ransom demands of 50 billion pounds and introducing division over Spain - Gibraltar.
I expect that Theresa May feels very confident that she has shown the right tone and it is the EU who are on the backfoot. Continue with stupid comments from Junckers et al and not only will the EU be deminished here but also outside Europe
We are now seeing the inevitable spin - if it's a good deal for Britain, it's good for Theresa May but apparently if it's a bad deal or no deal it's also good for Theresa May.
Now, even I know you can't have it both ways and eventually every politician has to make a choice between the best for their country and their personal popularity because sometimes what's good for the country won't be good for you politically or personally.
When May reaches that point - when she has to make a decision in the negotiations that will be the right thing overall but will be bad for her because, perhaps, it will contradict an earlier policy pronouncement, what then ?
I know you'll die in the ditch for her - I won't, why should I ? Doesn't mean I don't want what's best for Britain - it does mean I don't necessarily want what's best for Theresa May.0 -
That was David Cameron's responsibity not David Daviswilliamglenn said:
In the land of the blind...RobD said:
Davis has been receiving pretty good reviews in recent weeks/months. And to be fair to Boris, I think his statement wasn't that unhinged, just saying that the settlement cannot change without the consent of the locals.TheScreamingEagles said:In the first week of triggering Article 50, we've been mostly discussing going to war with Spain, this does not fill me with confidence about the whole process.
Fortunately we've got Liam Fox, David Davis, and Boris Johnson to fix it.
Oh....,
His revelations about the lack of thinking about or preparation for a no-deal outcome didn't do much for the credibility of the Hard Brexit bluff.0 -
Well, it's a niche issue- I don't think we'll be advocating it over the divorce bill, for example!dixiedean said:
What. That when the first sign of difficulty arises we have politicians and newspapers talking about war? You are very trusting of our partners.RobD said:
I doubt it'll be remembered when such negotiations start in earnest.dixiedean said:
No, but there are impressions created. If you honestly think the ravings of Howard go unnoticed by politicians and diplomats overseas.RobD said:
You really think such deals will hinge on reporting from several years previous?dixiedean said:
These are 2 of the prime countries for Global Britain's free trade deals!williamglenn said:
How do you think the foreign press are reporting it? Note that both examples below use 'Brexit Britain' pejoratively.Big_G_NorthWales said:I expect that Theresa May feels very confident that she has shown the right tone and it is the EU who are on the backfoot. Continue with stupid comments from Junckers et al and not only will the EU be deminished here but also outside Europe
Washington Post: Dispute over Gibraltar reveals hotheadedness of post-Brexit Britain
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/04/02/brexit-could-give-spain-major-bargaining-power-over-gibraltar/
Sydney Morning Herald: Downing Street has explicitly ruled out that Brexit Britain will go to war with Spain over Gibraltar - an extraordinary step made necessary after it backed a former Conservative party leader's sabre-rattling comments over Britain's big Mediterranean rock.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/jaw-jaw-not-war-war-theresa-may-hoses-down-talk-of-war-with-spain-over-gibraltar-20170403-gvcx4l.html0 -
It wasn't a government promise.IanB2 said:The size of the one-off payment only becomes an issue if the Gvt is stupid enough to offer it as a reason for not keeping the promise on the NHS.
As dean says, how the real economy goes is what matters. Plus a whole host of smaller but important potential niggles like whether we need an esta-type visa to travel to Europe, whether the duty free allowances return to the meagre pre-EU levels, the cost of travel insurance once we lose the E111 protection, whether universities charge more for courses when they lose foreign students, etc, etc.0 -
It's the authority that's lacking in your scenario. The EASA literally says, that aeroplane can fly, that airline can fly it and those ATCs can guide it. It won't have authority in the UK unless we agree it. Now I don't imagine for a moment that we wouldn't agree. The point is that we won't actually walk away.Sandpit said:
There are plenty of non-EU countries that agree within their national law to be regulated according to EASA rules (or its predecessor the JAA). For example Turkey, Switzerland and the EFTA states.FF43 said:
All aviation safety operations - airline management, air traffic control and aircradt maintenance - are certified by the European Aviation Safety Authority. If we leave the EU we leave the EASA unless we agree otherwise. We wouldn't be able to walk away from that and there are quite a few other agreements that we would have to sign back up to.GIN1138 said:Thanks Richard. Agree with your conclusion.
FPT
Out of interest what would happen to people that did try to fly out of the country in that situation?FF43 said:
Interesting. I'm pretty sure the EU is not going to budge on the payments. It may not be the full €60 billion, but they will want an enforceable commitment in the tens of billions. We won't walk away, of course. We wouldn't be able to fly out of the country for a start. But it could get very messy.Big_G_NorthWales said:Looking at the ICM poll today it is remarkable how right across the UK there is a substantial majority against paying a £3 billion exit fee, and the figures for £10 and £20 billion are total rejection including Scotland. Any influence by the ECJ post Brexit is also voted down
Unless I am reading something that is not there these figures must give credence to the voters backing a no deal and us walking away
If these figures are seen in Brussels it must fire a warning shot that the UK will not be taken for mugs and will drive a hard bargain
I would be happy if someone can point out if I have misread the data but I don't think I have.
I am also convinced that notwithstanding the hyperbole the media have made over Spain Theresa May's stance will be widely approved
The relevant legislation will be passed in the UK as part of the EU Repeal Bill and amended later if required - most of them originated in English Law to start with! There's no chance that the UK leaving the EU will lead to planes being grounded or some sort of civil air war across Europe.0 -
He at least shows some signs he has grasped the complexity of the issues.JonathanD said:
I'm confused about these good reviews of David Davis. In December he was saying a transitional deal would only be necessary to be 'kind' to the EU and that immigration would fall because of the skills and apprenticeships programs that were going to be introduced. Now he's saying a transitional deal is necessary and that immigration won't fall at all.RobD said:
Davis has been receiving pretty good reviews in recent weeks/months. And to be fair to Boris, I think his statement wasn't that unhinged, just saying that the settlement cannot change without the consent of the locals.TheScreamingEagles said:In the first week of triggering Article 50, we've been mostly discussing going to war with Spain, this does not fill me with confidence about the whole process.
Fortunately we've got Liam Fox, David Davis, and Boris Johnson to fix it.
Oh....,
He seems like a particularly slow on the job learner.0 -
Needless to say, we are still at the posturing stage. Britain has been posturing for the past nine months, the EU is getting involved and we're getting in a huff.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The public opinion will be the driving factor and on the ICM polling tonight no Prime Minister could sell the divorce sums expressed by the EU. I want the best outcome for the UK and I believe Theresa May is the best person to achieve that. I might also add that David Davis is proving that he has a pleasant and uncontroversial negotiating skill that will be the equal of Barnier.
We like to dish it out but we can't take it - witness the ludicrous nonsense over Gibraltar.
As to whether May is or isn't the best person - the problem is, thanks to 199 Conservative MPs we are stuck with her. I'd have preferred a more collegiate approach involving people of all parties and viewpoint working toward an agreed outcome but we don't have that.
0 -
To be fair to Nabavi, this is a political betting site so it is understandable to focus on such things.OllyT said:
From Cameron's original referendum decision through to the type of Brexit deal we get this has always been as much to do with what's best for the Conservative Party rather than what's best for the country. RN's article seems more concerned about how a Brexit disaster would impact on Theresa May than the impact on those that would suffer from it.stodge said:
I'm genuinely curious - what do you consider more important - the economic future of the United Kingdom or the political survival of Theresa May ?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I believe that this is a very fair summary as we start this process and entirely in line with today's ICM poll. The Spain - Gibraltar spat will have had no adverse effect on Theresa May and tonights pictures from Jordan with the military will have done her no harm.
The UK will not be bullied by the EU and I do believe it is the EU who have shot themselves in the foot with stupid ransom demands of 50 billion pounds and introducing division over Spain - Gibraltar.
I expect that Theresa May feels very confident that she has shown the right tone and it is the EU who are on the backfoot. Continue with stupid comments from Junckers et al and not only will the EU be deminished here but also outside Europe
We are now seeing the inevitable spin - if it's a good deal for Britain, it's good for Theresa May but apparently if it's a bad deal or no deal it's also good for Theresa May.
Now, even I know you can't have it both ways and eventually every politician has to make a choice between the best for their country and their personal popularity because sometimes what's good for the country won't be good for you politically or personally.
When May reaches that point - when she has to make a decision in the negotiations that will be the right thing overall but will be bad for her because, perhaps, it will contradict an earlier policy pronouncement, what then ?
I know you'll die in the ditch for her - I won't, why should I ? Doesn't mean I don't want what's best for Britain - it does mean I don't necessarily want what's best for Theresa May.0 -
It's been nine months. As FF43 said, if we were seriously preparing for a Hard Brexit, the evidence would be there to see, but we're not, and the EU knows it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
That was David Cameron's responsibity not David Daviswilliamglenn said:
In the land of the blind...RobD said:
Davis has been receiving pretty good reviews in recent weeks/months. And to be fair to Boris, I think his statement wasn't that unhinged, just saying that the settlement cannot change without the consent of the locals.TheScreamingEagles said:In the first week of triggering Article 50, we've been mostly discussing going to war with Spain, this does not fill me with confidence about the whole process.
Fortunately we've got Liam Fox, David Davis, and Boris Johnson to fix it.
Oh....,
His revelations about the lack of thinking about or preparation for a no-deal outcome didn't do much for the credibility of the Hard Brexit bluff.0 -
Assume that's not down to a Trainspotting themed jelly evening?TheScreamingEagles said:
Well tonight I've just taken 3 diazepam in one go instead of one three times a day.Theuniondivvie said:
I'm all ears.TheScreamingEagles said:
I can offer some advice on this area.Theuniondivvie said:
Thanks for your faithful, 24/7 attention to my every post. It means a lot to me.isam said:
A bit lost twice in two days after the ricket on MSP shop fronts yesterday! Take more water with itTheuniondivvie said:
I've got a bit lost on the Brexitloon line.Monksfield said:Theresa's warm words have been interpreted as a threat because they were presented as a threat.
Is it:
Howard off reservation, no blame attached to May.
Howard pursuing a cunning, May sanctioned strategy to calm the ultras.
A carefully aimed & entirely metaphorical shot across the EU bows to display UK virility.
AAAARGH, GET IT UP YOU HISPANOPHONES!
I know it's definitely not a monumental bollox.0 -
Our electoral system means we cannot have that approach, if we had PR then maybe it could work but the Lib Dem's got filleted for trying to put aside party differences.stodge said:
Needless to say, we are still at the posturing stage. Britain has been posturing for the past nine months, the EU is getting involved and we're getting in a huff.Big_G_NorthWales said:
The public opinion will be the driving factor and on the ICM polling tonight no Prime Minister could sell the divorce sums expressed by the EU. I want the best outcome for the UK and I believe Theresa May is the best person to achieve that. I might also add that David Davis is proving that he has a pleasant and uncontroversial negotiating skill that will be the equal of Barnier.
We like to dish it out but we can't take it - witness the ludicrous nonsense over Gibraltar.
As to whether May is or isn't the best person - the problem is, thanks to 199 Conservative MPs we are stuck with her. I'd have preferred a more collegiate approach involving people of all parties and viewpoint working toward an agreed outcome but we don't have that.0 -
Olly, it's all about the Tory party. Brexit is both exposing the desperation of the Tory party to stay together at the same time as its ever more Janusian nature. Happily it can only eventually end badly.OllyT said:
From Cameron's original referendum decision through to the type of Brexit deal we get this has always been as much to do with what's best for the Conservative Party rather than what's best for the country. RN's article seems more concerned about how a Brexit disaster would impact on Theresa May than the impact on those that would suffer from it.stodge said:
I'm genuinely curious - what do you consider more important - the economic future of the United Kingdom or the political survival of Theresa May ?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I believe that this is a very fair summary as we start this process and entirely in line with today's ICM poll. The Spain - Gibraltar spat will have had no adverse effect on Theresa May and tonights pictures from Jordan with the military will have done her no harm.
The UK will not be bullied by the EU and I do believe it is the EU who have shot themselves in the foot with stupid ransom demands of 50 billion pounds and introducing division over Spain - Gibraltar.
I expect that Theresa May feels very confident that she has shown the right tone and it is the EU who are on the backfoot. Continue with stupid comments from Junckers et al and not only will the EU be deminished here but also outside Europe
We are now seeing the inevitable spin - if it's a good deal for Britain, it's good for Theresa May but apparently if it's a bad deal or no deal it's also good for Theresa May.
Now, even I know you can't have it both ways and eventually every politician has to make a choice between the best for their country and their personal popularity because sometimes what's good for the country won't be good for you politically or personally.
When May reaches that point - when she has to make a decision in the negotiations that will be the right thing overall but will be bad for her because, perhaps, it will contradict an earlier policy pronouncement, what then ?
I know you'll die in the ditch for her - I won't, why should I ? Doesn't mean I don't want what's best for Britain - it does mean I don't necessarily want what's best for Theresa May.0 -
OTOH, many people in Britain will be well aware the financial settlement is an integral part of any divorce and a mutually amicable financial settlement isn't predicated on one side walking off without paying a penny yet wanting custody of almost everything.chestnut said:
The ICM is utterly emphatic. The notion of a 'divorce bill' or an 'exit fee' is toxic.
The public will expect the government to tell the EU to fuck off and manage it through, blaming the EU all the way.
The EU, and the Remain grumblers in this country, really need to think about how they discuss this if they'd prefer to avoid the 'fuck you' scenario..
0 -
'Cos the EU and the UK have been so great at working out each other's next moves throughout this whole thing?williamglenn said:
It's been nine months. As FF43 said, if we were seriously preparing for a Hard Brexit, the evidence would be there to see, but we're not, and the EU knows it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
That was David Cameron's responsibity not David Daviswilliamglenn said:
In the land of the blind...RobD said:
Davis has been receiving pretty good reviews in recent weeks/months. And to be fair to Boris, I think his statement wasn't that unhinged, just saying that the settlement cannot change without the consent of the locals.TheScreamingEagles said:In the first week of triggering Article 50, we've been mostly discussing going to war with Spain, this does not fill me with confidence about the whole process.
Fortunately we've got Liam Fox, David Davis, and Boris Johnson to fix it.
Oh....,
His revelations about the lack of thinking about or preparation for a no-deal outcome didn't do much for the credibility of the Hard Brexit bluff.
It's increasingly clear we just don't really get each other's mindset.0 -
Sciatica. Though I do love to sing 'No More Catholics'Theuniondivvie said:
Assume that's not down to a Trainspotting themed jelly evening?TheScreamingEagles said:
Well tonight I've just taken 3 diazepam in one go instead of one three times a day.Theuniondivvie said:
I'm all ears.TheScreamingEagles said:
I can offer some advice on this area.Theuniondivvie said:
Thanks for your faithful, 24/7 attention to my every post. It means a lot to me.isam said:
A bit lost twice in two days after the ricket on MSP shop fronts yesterday! Take more water with itTheuniondivvie said:
I've got a bit lost on the Brexitloon line.Monksfield said:Theresa's warm words have been interpreted as a threat because they were presented as a threat.
Is it:
Howard off reservation, no blame attached to May.
Howard pursuing a cunning, May sanctioned strategy to calm the ultras.
A carefully aimed & entirely metaphorical shot across the EU bows to display UK virility.
AAAARGH, GET IT UP YOU HISPANOPHONES!
I know it's definitely not a monumental bollox.0 -
I fully expect the EU to be hated, but what I think is irrelevant. I am interested in what the parties will actually DO. So far I think the EU side has played a strong hand well and set themselves up to prevail, ie we will essentially agree to what they ask. Meanwhile the UK has played a weak hand very badly. The fact they keep resorting to empty rhetoric shows that.chestnut said:
The ICM is utterly emphatic. The notion of a 'divorce bill' or an 'exit fee' is toxic.FF43 said:They have calculated we won't walk away because of the payments, so there's no reason for them to dial back on one of their key requirements.
Given the tight timetable, the complexity of disengagement, that Theresa May wants Brexit to be a success, that no-one has prepared the British public for real costs of Brexit like high unemployment and, importantly, because the EU looks to offer eventually what the UK wants on trade, I think they are probably correct.
The public will expect the government to tell the EU to fuck off and manage it through, blaming the EU all the way.
The EU, and the Remain grumblers in this country, really need to think about how they discuss this if they'd prefer to avoid the 'fuck you' scenario..
I disagree with Richard on that.0 -
Yep, things are looking really terrible for the tories at the moment.Monksfield said:
Olly, it's all about the Tory party. Brexit is both exposing the desperation of the Tory party to stay together at the same time as its ever more Janusian nature. Happily it can only eventually end badly.OllyT said:
From Cameron's original referendum decision through to the type of Brexit deal we get this has always been as much to do with what's best for the Conservative Party rather than what's best for the country. RN's article seems more concerned about how a Brexit disaster would impact on Theresa May than the impact on those that would suffer from it.stodge said:
I'm genuinely curious - what do you consider more important - the economic future of the United Kingdom or the political survival of Theresa May ?Big_G_NorthWales said:
I believe that this is a very fair summary as we start this process and entirely in line with today's ICM poll. The Spain - Gibraltar spat will have had no adverse effect on Theresa May and tonights pictures from Jordan with the military will have done her no harm.
The UK will not be bullied by the EU and I do believe it is the EU who have shot themselves in the foot with stupid ransom demands of 50 billion pounds and introducing division over Spain - Gibraltar.
I expect that Theresa May feels very confident that she has shown the right tone and it is the EU who are on the backfoot. Continue with stupid comments from Junckers et al and not only will the EU be deminished here but also outside Europe
We are now seeing the inevitable spin - if it's a good deal for Britain, it's good for Theresa May but apparently if it's a bad deal or no deal it's also good for Theresa May.
Now, even I know you can't have it both ways and eventually every politician has to make a choice between the best for their country and their personal popularity because sometimes what's good for the country won't be good for you politically or personally.
When May reaches that point - when she has to make a decision in the negotiations that will be the right thing overall but will be bad for her because, perhaps, it will contradict an earlier policy pronouncement, what then ?
I know you'll die in the ditch for her - I won't, why should I ? Doesn't mean I don't want what's best for Britain - it does mean I don't necessarily want what's best for Theresa May.
Nice of you to rejoice at the prospect of a bad ending for your country.0 -
Seriously preparing for a Hard Grand to SeanT, perchance?williamglenn said:
It's been nine months. As FF43 said, if we were seriously preparing for a Hard Brexit, the evidence would be there to see, but we're not, and the EU knows it.Big_G_NorthWales said:
That was David Cameron's responsibity not David Daviswilliamglenn said:
In the land of the blind...RobD said:
Davis has been receiving pretty good reviews in recent weeks/months. And to be fair to Boris, I think his statement wasn't that unhinged, just saying that the settlement cannot change without the consent of the locals.TheScreamingEagles said:In the first week of triggering Article 50, we've been mostly discussing going to war with Spain, this does not fill me with confidence about the whole process.
Fortunately we've got Liam Fox, David Davis, and Boris Johnson to fix it.
Oh....,
His revelations about the lack of thinking about or preparation for a no-deal outcome didn't do much for the credibility of the Hard Brexit bluff.0
