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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Richard Nabavi on the Brexit Blame Game
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Richard Nabavi on the Brexit Blame Game
Now that the trigger has been pulled, the EU27 and the United Kingdom have begun the public posturing over the Brexit negotiations. So far this is not looking encouraging. Theresa May’s warm words about wanting a ”deep and special partnership between the UK and the EU” to include ”both economic and security cooperation” seem to have been, bizarrely, interpreted as a threat. The EU continues to insist that we have to settle the outline of the ‘exit deal’ before we can discuss what we are exiting to. They have thrown a hand-grenade into the negotiating process by appearing to want to blackmail us over Gibraltar.
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FPT Out of interest what would happen to people that did try to fly out of the country in that situation?
Half that might be sellable, depending on what we got in return, but of course £60bn was an opening gambit. Claims of being legally required are nonsense, since lawyers always claim they are right, but if it were tested in court who the hell knows, and if it got to that very acrimonious point, things will be so bad we'd not pad even then.
I think this slightly undersells the potential pitfalls for the Tories. People are not necessarily rational, and if it looks, to most people, that the EU are being the unreasonable ones, not May, it might be reasonable that the Tories do not get punishment for that, but if the opposition ejects Corbyn and gets their act together, or there is enough evidence to suggest May's cock ups caused a difficult attitude from the EU, they could suffer quite a bit.
Like dixiedean I'd see that as a competence issue. Labour are not helping make a case to be a better choice there at present, so maybe this is right it wouldn't be a disaster, but it wouldn't be good.
'A Brexit Breakdown would be a disaster for the UK, as well as for the EU27 – but in purely party-political terms it wouldn’t be a disaster for the Conservative Party."
So how likely is a breakdown. Given the circumstances described I would say quite likely. After all, what would the PM and her team have to lose?
To my mind, there is a fairly high probability that the Tories self-immolate. The hysterical headbangers have already shown they will not compromise AT ALL. To make matters worse they are happy to scweam and scweam about treacherous euro-turncoats to journalists or to the public at large via Twitter.
Btw, the political way out on the divorce bill is the same as Osborne's "halved the bill" nonsense: we might pay £12bn upfront, and then a further £4bn each year of the three year transition period.
That would look like we're reducing our net contributions straight away, but actually paying off the divorce bill.
Otherwise it'd be much more like the 1981 budget.
I'm not convinced both sides are desperate enough to avoid it.
I'm reminded of when the police raided two innocent men in Forest Gate, shot one of them, and later apologised for the "inconvenience" they'd caused.
I don't feel remotely threatened by them.
Is it:
Howard off reservation, no blame attached to May.
Howard pursuing a cunning, May sanctioned strategy to calm the ultras.
A carefully aimed & entirely metaphorical shot across the EU bows to display UK virility.
AAAARGH, GET IT UP YOU HISPANOPHONES!
I know it's definitely not a monumental bollox.
If I were a Greek in Yr10 of austerity, and I heard that the Brits thought the €70k a year pensions in Brussels were a bit excessive, I might be inclined to agree and wonder what the hell I was being subjected to.
Equally, if I was Italian on flatlined growth, or at risk of losing my livelihood as a French fisherman, Dutch food producer, Irish farmer, I might feel a bit aggrieved.
A whole new risk becomes apparent for the EU.
The more open this becomes, the more their internal dissenters will find ammunition to fire at the EU.
The UK will not be bullied by the EU and I do believe it is the EU who have shot themselves in the foot with stupid ransom demands of 50 billion pounds and introducing division over Spain - Gibraltar.
I expect that Theresa May feels very confident that she has shown the right tone and it is the EU who are on the backfoot. Continue with stupid comments from Junckers et al and not only will the EU be deminished here but also outside Europe
The EU SHOULD be worried about coming across as a well-funded gravy train when it asks Britain to foot the bill. Whether it WILL, I don't know.
Washington Post: Dispute over Gibraltar reveals hotheadedness of post-Brexit Britain
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2017/04/02/brexit-could-give-spain-major-bargaining-power-over-gibraltar/
Sydney Morning Herald: Downing Street has explicitly ruled out that Brexit Britain will go to war with Spain over Gibraltar - an extraordinary step made necessary after it backed a former Conservative party leader's sabre-rattling comments over Britain's big Mediterranean rock.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/jaw-jaw-not-war-war-theresa-may-hoses-down-talk-of-war-with-spain-over-gibraltar-20170403-gvcx4l.html
As these details get into the finance the excesses of the EU with two Parliament buildings and bureaucratic gravy trains with excessive pensions a fracture will open between Brussels and the peoples across the EU
We are now seeing the inevitable spin - if it's a good deal for Britain, it's good for Theresa May but apparently if it's a bad deal or no deal it's also good for Theresa May.
Now, even I know you can't have it both ways and eventually every politician has to make a choice between the best for their country and their personal popularity because sometimes what's good for the country won't be good for you politically or personally.
When May reaches that point - when she has to make a decision in the negotiations that will be the right thing overall but will be bad for her because, perhaps, it will contradict an earlier policy pronouncement, what then ?
I know you'll die in the ditch for her - I won't, why should I ? Doesn't mean I don't want what's best for Britain - it does mean I don't necessarily want what's best for Theresa May.
Given the tight timetable, the complexity of disengagement, that Theresa May wants Brexit to be a success, that no-one has prepared the British public for real costs of Brexit like high unemployment and, importantly, because the EU looks to offer eventually what the UK wants on trade, I think they are probably correct.
Vote Intention:
Students: Con 41: Labour 35
BAME: Labour 44: Con 33
Remain: Con 37: Labour 31
Fortunately we've got Liam Fox, David Davis, and Boris Johnson to fix it.
Oh....,
His revelations about the lack of thinking about or preparation for a no-deal outcome didn't do much for the credibility of the Hard Brexit bluff.
As dean says, how the real economy goes is what matters. Plus a whole host of smaller but important potential niggles like whether we need an esta-type visa to travel to Europe, whether the duty free allowances return to the meagre pre-EU levels, the cost of travel insurance once we lose the E111 protection, whether universities charge more for courses when they lose foreign students, etc, etc.
He seems like a particularly slow on the job learner.
As a general comment, the UK has made virtually no preparation for a Hard Brexit. It would already be setting up these bodies by now if it were.
The relevant legislation will be passed in the UK as part of the EU Repeal Bill and amended later if required - most of them originated in English Law to start with! There's no chance that the UK leaving the EU will lead to planes being grounded or some sort of civil air war across Europe.
The public will expect the government to tell the EU to fuck off and manage it through, blaming the EU all the way.
The EU, and the Remain grumblers in this country, really need to think about how they discuss this if they'd prefer to avoid the 'fuck you' scenario..
We like to dish it out but we can't take it - witness the ludicrous nonsense over Gibraltar.
As to whether May is or isn't the best person - the problem is, thanks to 199 Conservative MPs we are stuck with her. I'd have preferred a more collegiate approach involving people of all parties and viewpoint working toward an agreed outcome but we don't have that.
It's increasingly clear we just don't really get each other's mindset.
I disagree with Richard on that.
Nice of you to rejoice at the prospect of a bad ending for your country.