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edited April 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It wasn’t an April Fool after all: Farage is PaddyPower’s new political advisor

Last Thursday the Dublin-based PaddyPower issued a press release embargoed for April 1st announcing that former UKIP leader had become the firm’s political advisor.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • Beverley_C
    Beverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited April 2017
    First! Although commenting on a Farage thread makes me feel soiled and grubby :(
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,310
    edited April 2017
    Second like LibDems
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    I don't call them publicity shy Paddy Power without cause.
  • PClipp
    PClipp Posts: 2,138
    Publicity for whom?
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    New ICM poll:

    Conservatives: 43% (down 2 since Guardian/ICM two weeks ago)

    Labour: 25% (down 1)

    Ukip: 11% (up 1)

    Lib Dems: 11% (up 2)

    Greens: 4% (no change)

    Conservative lead: 18 points (down 1)

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/apr/03/brexit-michael-howard-accused-of-absurd-jingoism-over-gibraltar-threat-politics-live

    15:04
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Recommending Paddy scrap their impeachment market is both good publicity and strictly long term profitable from the layer's point of view...
  • CarlottaVance
    CarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Some serious rewriting of history by the BBC:

    Former Labour foreign secretary Jack Straw, whose 2002 referendum asking Gibraltarians if they wanted Britain to share sovereignty with Spain was rejected by 99% to 1%,

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-39475127

    Jack Straw's Referendum?
  • david_herdson
    david_herdson Posts: 18,357
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    New ICM poll:

    Conservatives: 43% (down 2 since Guardian/ICM two weeks ago)

    Labour: 25% (down 1)

    Ukip: 11% (up 1)

    Lib Dems: 11% (up 2)

    Greens: 4% (no change)

    Conservative lead: 18 points (down 1)

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/apr/03/brexit-michael-howard-accused-of-absurd-jingoism-over-gibraltar-threat-politics-live

    15:04

    Given these sort of polling figures and the differential regional / class swings, at what point do we start talking about Con winning at least one of the various Metro-mayoralties going to the polls in a month? WMids must be a very open race but - say it quietly - what about Gtr Manchester?
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    New ICM poll:

    Conservatives: 43% (down 2 since Guardian/ICM two weeks ago)

    Labour: 25% (down 1)

    Ukip: 11% (up 1)

    Lib Dems: 11% (up 2)

    Greens: 4% (no change)

    Conservative lead: 18 points (down 1)

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/apr/03/brexit-michael-howard-accused-of-absurd-jingoism-over-gibraltar-threat-politics-live

    15:04

    It is noteworthy how unremarkable a poll like that is now. Government in the 40s, opposition 25. 18 smiling Theresa's. Should be News but isn't.
  • CarlottaVance
    CarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    As the only British politician with a direct line to the Donald – sorry, Theresa!

    He really doesn't want that Knighthood, does he?
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    david_herdson said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    New ICM poll:

    Conservatives: 43% (down 2 since Guardian/ICM two weeks ago)

    Labour: 25% (down 1)

    Ukip: 11% (up 1)

    Lib Dems: 11% (up 2)

    Greens: 4% (no change)

    Conservative lead: 18 points (down 1)

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/apr/03/brexit-michael-howard-accused-of-absurd-jingoism-over-gibraltar-threat-politics-live

    15:04

    Given these sort of polling figures and the differential regional / class swings, at what point do we start talking about Con winning at least one of the various Metro-mayoralties going to the polls in a month? WMids must be a very open race but - say it quietly - what about Gtr Manchester?
    I'd still be surprised if W Mids went blue judging by the 2016 locals in Coventry & Birmingham. These aren't Westminster elections.
  • Black_Rook
    Black_Rook Posts: 8,905
    david_herdson said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    New ICM poll:

    Conservatives: 43% (down 2 since Guardian/ICM two weeks ago)

    Labour: 25% (down 1)

    Ukip: 11% (up 1)

    Lib Dems: 11% (up 2)

    Greens: 4% (no change)

    Conservative lead: 18 points (down 1)

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/apr/03/brexit-michael-howard-accused-of-absurd-jingoism-over-gibraltar-threat-politics-live

    15:04

    Given these sort of polling figures and the differential regional / class swings, at what point do we start talking about Con winning at least one of the various Metro-mayoralties going to the polls in a month? WMids must be a very open race but - say it quietly - what about Gtr Manchester?
    West Midlands is reputed to be very close, but I'd be truly astonished if Andy Burnham somehow contrived to lose in Greater Manchester.

    Of course, the new combined authority mayorships do extend to some more Tory-friendly areas. Close race between blue and yellow in the West if England (Bristol plus/Avon minus) region, and nailed on certainty for Cambridgeshire.
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    edited April 2017
    Oh no, the terrible 18 point ICM polling lead!
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    If there were to be Thanet South by election I guess Paddy Power will make Farage the 1/1000 favourite?
  • CarlottaVance
    CarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Glen O'Hara‏ @gsoh31
    Polling news: @UKLabour's joint-worst ever result with @ICMResearch today. Figures go back to 1983.
  • david_herdson
    david_herdson Posts: 18,357
    Pulpstar said:

    david_herdson said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    New ICM poll:

    Conservatives: 43% (down 2 since Guardian/ICM two weeks ago)

    Labour: 25% (down 1)

    Ukip: 11% (up 1)

    Lib Dems: 11% (up 2)

    Greens: 4% (no change)

    Conservative lead: 18 points (down 1)

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/apr/03/brexit-michael-howard-accused-of-absurd-jingoism-over-gibraltar-threat-politics-live

    15:04

    Given these sort of polling figures and the differential regional / class swings, at what point do we start talking about Con winning at least one of the various Metro-mayoralties going to the polls in a month? WMids must be a very open race but - say it quietly - what about Gtr Manchester?
    I'd still be surprised if W Mids went blue judging by the 2016 locals in Coventry & Birmingham. These aren't Westminster elections.
    But the 2016 elections were held when the Con lead was about 3. It's now about 17.

    And while you're right that these aren't Westminster elections, it is a mayoral - and in mayoral elections, the candidate can have a disproportionate impact. I don't think I'm being biased in seeing the Con candidate as the stronger.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Theresa's losing support, it'll soon become an avalanche.
  • SimonStClare
    SimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Tis unlike the publicity shy Paddy Power to take such a gamble on an outside chancer.
  • Ishmael_Z
    Ishmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Pulpstar said:

    Recommending Paddy scrap their impeachment market is both good publicity and strictly long term profitable from the layer's point of view...

    I'm lost, surely laying things which are "clearly never going to happen" is the bookie's nirvana?

    PP are loltastic, though: I note they have offered odds on the extinction of the polar bear, and the outcome of the Pistorius murder trial. Staying classy, obviously.
  • Artist
    Artist Posts: 1,893
    edited April 2017
    Still not 20% behind yet.

    I've never seen Paddy Power offer anything interesting political betting wise.
  • wasd
    wasd Posts: 276
    Pulpstar said:

    david_herdson said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    New ICM poll:

    Conservatives: 43% (down 2 since Guardian/ICM two weeks ago)

    Labour: 25% (down 1)

    Ukip: 11% (up 1)

    Lib Dems: 11% (up 2)

    Greens: 4% (no change)

    Conservative lead: 18 points (down 1)

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/apr/03/brexit-michael-howard-accused-of-absurd-jingoism-over-gibraltar-threat-politics-live

    15:04

    Given these sort of polling figures and the differential regional / class swings, at what point do we start talking about Con winning at least one of the various Metro-mayoralties going to the polls in a month? WMids must be a very open race but - say it quietly - what about Gtr Manchester?
    I'd still be surprised if W Mids went blue judging by the 2016 locals in Coventry & Birmingham. These aren't Westminster elections.
    Low turn out weirdness? Birmingham and Manchester don't have council elections this year to help boost it.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    Terrorism in St Petersburg:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39481770
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Theresa's losing support, it'll soon become an avalanche.

    You need a lot of snowflakes to make an avalanche.
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    Artist said:

    Still not 20% behind yet.

    I've never seen Paddy Power offer anything interesting political betting wise.

    I could forgive them a lot for their "turn around Steward" advert. But not this.
  • RoyalBlue
    RoyalBlue Posts: 3,223
    It would be great if the Tories can win the West Midlands mayoralty.

    One of the pleasing historical echoes in British politics is how the region that was most supportive of tariff reform in the 1900s was also the keenest on Brexit.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    edited April 2017
    My all time favourite political bet was with Coral at the last GE.

    Bet on would there be more Tory MPs in Scotland than pandas.
  • Anorak
    Anorak Posts: 6,621
    CarlottaVance said:

    Glen O'Hara‏ @gsoh31
    Polling news: @UKLabour's joint-worst ever result with @ICMResearch today. Figures go back to 1983.

    Corbynism: still sweeping the nation like Spanish 'flu.
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    My all time favourite political bet was with Coral at the last GE.

    Bet on would there be more Tory MPs in Scotland than polar bears.

    Not pandas?
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,289
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    My all time favourite political bet was with Coral at the last GE.

    Bet on would there be more Tory MPs in Scotland than polar bears.

    That's a moving target these days:

    https://www.wwf.org.uk/updates/polar-bear-sighted-scottish-island
  • CarlottaVance
    CarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Meanwhile back with the grown ups:

    Prime Minister Theresa May has laughed off journalists' questions about going to war with Spain following the Gibraltar Brexit row.

    Mrs May said her approach to negotiations was "definitely jaw jaw".

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-39475127
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    DavidL said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    My all time favourite political bet was with Coral at the last GE.

    Bet on would there be more Tory MPs in Scotland than polar bears.

    Not pandas?
    Yup. Edited it.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    Pulpstar said:

    david_herdson said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    New ICM poll:

    Conservatives: 43% (down 2 since Guardian/ICM two weeks ago)

    Labour: 25% (down 1)

    Ukip: 11% (up 1)

    Lib Dems: 11% (up 2)

    Greens: 4% (no change)

    Conservative lead: 18 points (down 1)

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/apr/03/brexit-michael-howard-accused-of-absurd-jingoism-over-gibraltar-threat-politics-live

    15:04

    Given these sort of polling figures and the differential regional / class swings, at what point do we start talking about Con winning at least one of the various Metro-mayoralties going to the polls in a month? WMids must be a very open race but - say it quietly - what about Gtr Manchester?
    I'd still be surprised if W Mids went blue judging by the 2016 locals in Coventry & Birmingham. These aren't Westminster elections.
    That's true, but they aren't really typical local council elections either.

    Voters can feel freer to act out of character in Mayoral elections.
  • Black_Rook
    Black_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Conservative leads over Labour in GB-wide polls since start of March: 16, 19, 13, 17, 13, 13, 17, 19, 16, 18, and 18pts. Average 16.3%.

    The last single digit value was 7pts, with Opinium two months ago, and the other two single figure leads this year were recorded in early January. There's enough evidence to suggest that the Tory lead is actually continuing to widen.

    Early July 2016 (pre-Theresa May): 5.0%
    Late July (post-Theresa May): 11.0%
    August: 10.7%
    September: 10.9%
    October (post-Tory conference): 14.6%
    November: 12.4%
    December: 12.8%
    January 2017 (month of Corbyn re-launch): 13.0%
    February: 14.4%
    March: 16.1%
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    Artist said:

    Still not 20% behind yet.

    I've never seen Paddy Power offer anything interesting political betting wise.

    Quite a few Hillary Clinton for President backers who got paid out a month early would have been pretty happy with PP. :)
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    CarlottaVance said:

    Meanwhile back with the grown ups:

    Prime Minister Theresa May has laughed off journalists' questions about going to war with Spain following the Gibraltar Brexit row.

    Mrs May said her approach to negotiations was "definitely jaw jaw".

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-39475127

    Interesting quotes from Jack Straw in that article. Happy to bat for anyone but Britain.

    He has learnt nothing and forgotten nothing.

    PS. It is rather amusing the PM has been asked to rule out war with Spain.
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    RoyalBlue said:

    It would be great if the Tories can win the West Midlands mayoralty.

    One of the pleasing historical echoes in British politics is how the region that was most supportive of tariff reform in the 1900s was also the keenest on Brexit.

    Am back in UK later this month, will try and find some time to help with Andy Street's campaign.

    He's exactly the sort of person all parties should be encouraging to stand for offices like the regional Mayors, and if he wins it will he the big media story of the night bar a total labour collapse.
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    Black_Rook said:

    Conservative leads over Labour in GB-wide polls since start of March: 16, 19, 13, 17, 13, 13, 17, 19, 16, 18, and 18pts. Average 16.3%.

    The last single digit value was 7pts, with Opinium two months ago, and the other two single figure leads this year were recorded in early January. There's enough evidence to suggest that the Tory lead is actually continuing to widen.

    Early July 2016 (pre-Theresa May): 5.0%
    Late July (post-Theresa May): 11.0%
    August: 10.7%
    September: 10.9%
    October (post-Tory conference): 14.6%
    November: 12.4%
    December: 12.8%
    January 2017 (month of Corbyn re-launch): 13.0%
    February: 14.4%
    March: 16.1%

    What I find startling is not so much the lead as the levels of support that Labour is falling to. It is now not unusual to see then at the 25% level. In the golden days of Ed 30% looked a pretty solid floor. There has to be a serious risk that a demotivated base produces a national equivalent vote share of less than 25% next month.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    david_herdson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    david_herdson said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    New ICM poll:

    Conservatives: 43% (down 2 since Guardian/ICM two weeks ago)

    Labour: 25% (down 1)

    Ukip: 11% (up 1)

    Lib Dems: 11% (up 2)

    Greens: 4% (no change)

    Conservative lead: 18 points (down 1)

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/apr/03/brexit-michael-howard-accused-of-absurd-jingoism-over-gibraltar-threat-politics-live

    15:04

    Given these sort of polling figures and the differential regional / class swings, at what point do we start talking about Con winning at least one of the various Metro-mayoralties going to the polls in a month? WMids must be a very open race but - say it quietly - what about Gtr Manchester?
    I'd still be surprised if W Mids went blue judging by the 2016 locals in Coventry & Birmingham. These aren't Westminster elections.
    But the 2016 elections were held when the Con lead was about 3. It's now about 17.

    And while you're right that these aren't Westminster elections, it is a mayoral - and in mayoral elections, the candidate can have a disproportionate impact. I don't think I'm being biased in seeing the Con candidate as the stronger.
    He undoubtedly is, a bigger than 7% swing would be needed to win from 2016 I think, mind.

    Coventry Northwest voted

    6073 9605 21283

    28.53 45.13 Lab / Tory in 2016.

    Applying a 7% swing yields:

    35.53 38.13 So Simon still ahead

    It is pretty much the West Midlands mayoral election in microcosm.

    I agree that pairwise Street is the better candidate.
  • dixiedean
    dixiedean Posts: 30,316
    Maybe a market on who will have most part time jobs whilst being paid a full time wage by the taxpayer. Farage or Osborne?
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,289
    Interestingly, Gibraltar's leader Fabian Picardo is a member of the Socialist Labour party. Perhaps Corbyn route to power is through upping the ante with Spain.
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DavidL said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    My all time favourite political bet was with Coral at the last GE.

    Bet on would there be more Tory MPs in Scotland than polar bears.

    Not pandas?
    Yup. Edited it.
    Don't think anyone will be offering that particular bet the next time around!
  • TOPPING
    TOPPING Posts: 44,060
    Casino_Royale said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Meanwhile back with the grown ups:

    Prime Minister Theresa May has laughed off journalists' questions about going to war with Spain following the Gibraltar Brexit row.

    Mrs May said her approach to negotiations was "definitely jaw jaw".

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-39475127

    Interesting quotes from Jack Straw in that article. Happy to bat for anyone but Britain.

    He has learnt nothing and forgotten nothing.

    PS. It is rather amusing the PM has been asked to rule out war with Spain.
    Rather amusing? Sit back for a moment and ponder: in whatever level of seriousness (and I agree she handled it well), she is talking of war with another European nation. Not quite WWIII or not quite not WWIII but extraordinary nevertheless.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,722
    CarlottaVance said:

    Glen O'Hara‏ @gsoh31
    Polling news: @UKLabour's joint-worst ever result with @ICMResearch today. Figures go back to 1983.

    I am sure Justin Short Straws will still the glass as half full for labour.
  • MarkHopkins
    MarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    TOPPING said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Meanwhile back with the grown ups:

    Prime Minister Theresa May has laughed off journalists' questions about going to war with Spain following the Gibraltar Brexit row.

    Mrs May said her approach to negotiations was "definitely jaw jaw".

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-39475127

    Interesting quotes from Jack Straw in that article. Happy to bat for anyone but Britain.

    He has learnt nothing and forgotten nothing.

    PS. It is rather amusing the PM has been asked to rule out war with Spain.
    Rather amusing? Sit back for a moment and ponder: in whatever level of seriousness (and I agree she handled it well), she is talking of war with another European nation. Not quite WWIII or not quite not WWIII but extraordinary nevertheless.

    Well, the EU started it...

  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited April 2017
    https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/848911843380924417
  • Black_Rook
    Black_Rook Posts: 8,905
    DavidL said:

    Black_Rook said:

    Conservative leads over Labour in GB-wide polls since start of March: 16, 19, 13, 17, 13, 13, 17, 19, 16, 18, and 18pts. Average 16.3%.

    The last single digit value was 7pts, with Opinium two months ago, and the other two single figure leads this year were recorded in early January. There's enough evidence to suggest that the Tory lead is actually continuing to widen.

    Early July 2016 (pre-Theresa May): 5.0%
    Late July (post-Theresa May): 11.0%
    August: 10.7%
    September: 10.9%
    October (post-Tory conference): 14.6%
    November: 12.4%
    December: 12.8%
    January 2017 (month of Corbyn re-launch): 13.0%
    February: 14.4%
    March: 16.1%

    What I find startling is not so much the lead as the levels of support that Labour is falling to. It is now not unusual to see then at the 25% level. In the golden days of Ed 30% looked a pretty solid floor. There has to be a serious risk that a demotivated base produces a national equivalent vote share of less than 25% next month.
    It's very hard to tell, isn't it? The opinion polls measure GE voting intention, and whilst Labour voters might defect or not bother to turn up at all, Tory voters might also view local elections as unimportant. The Lib Dems might outperform under these circumstances.

    I have wavered a little about Labour's floor, but I'm moving back towards the position that they're unlikely to drop below about 25% in a General Election. Even under Corbyn they've a long list of supporters, and the ones that haven't already departed appear to be in no hurry to do so.

    Absent Corbyn falling under a bus or the Conservatives themselves falling into a fresh bout of civil war over Brexit, the extent of the Tory landslide at the next GE seems to be governed mainly by how much of what's left of the Ukip vote they can steal. The Liberal Democrats will be an important threat in a limited number of seats, but their rise in the polls appears to have stalled and they'll have to deploy some of their limited resources in defence, especially if boundary reform goes through.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/848911524936765441
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    TOPPING said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Meanwhile back with the grown ups:

    Prime Minister Theresa May has laughed off journalists' questions about going to war with Spain following the Gibraltar Brexit row.

    Mrs May said her approach to negotiations was "definitely jaw jaw".

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-39475127

    Interesting quotes from Jack Straw in that article. Happy to bat for anyone but Britain.

    He has learnt nothing and forgotten nothing.

    PS. It is rather amusing the PM has been asked to rule out war with Spain.
    Rather amusing? Sit back for a moment and ponder: in whatever level of seriousness (and I agree she handled it well), she is talking of war with another European nation. Not quite WWIII or not quite not WWIII but extraordinary nevertheless.
    I haven't seen her talking of war anywhere other than to answer silly questions. Link if incorrect.
  • Black_Rook
    Black_Rook Posts: 8,905
    edited April 2017
    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/848911818797887488

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/848912156762492930

    And your regular reminder: Oppositions normally peak mid-term, with Governments making up ground in the run up to elections.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,722
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/848911524936765441

    That guy was so crap he made seamus look good.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/848911843380924417

    Why wait, you can view Andy's videos on youtube :D
  • TOPPING
    TOPPING Posts: 44,060
    TGOHF said:

    TOPPING said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Meanwhile back with the grown ups:

    Prime Minister Theresa May has laughed off journalists' questions about going to war with Spain following the Gibraltar Brexit row.

    Mrs May said her approach to negotiations was "definitely jaw jaw".

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-39475127

    Interesting quotes from Jack Straw in that article. Happy to bat for anyone but Britain.

    He has learnt nothing and forgotten nothing.

    PS. It is rather amusing the PM has been asked to rule out war with Spain.
    Rather amusing? Sit back for a moment and ponder: in whatever level of seriousness (and I agree she handled it well), she is talking of war with another European nation. Not quite WWIII or not quite not WWIII but extraordinary nevertheless.
    I haven't seen her talking of war anywhere other than to answer silly questions. Link if incorrect.
    So you haven't seen her talking of war anywhere other than when she answered a question about it.

    K.
  • SimonStClare
    SimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited April 2017
    Scott_P said:

    ttps://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/848911524936765441

    Great quote from Gavin Sibthorpe, the man responsible for getting Jeremy Corbyn to dress appropriately.

    "I've tried, it's hard. I did get him in the white tails, and he looked smart on Remembrance Sunday. And I think that's where I peaked, really."
  • Alistair
    Alistair Posts: 23,670
    Artist said:

    Still not 20% behind yet.

    I've never seen Paddy Power offer anything interesting political betting wise.

    They had the Stein vote Share market which I missed cleaning up on by 0.08%
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    williamglenn said:

    Interestingly, Gibraltar's leader Fabian Picardo is a member of the Socialist Labour party. Perhaps Corbyn route to power is through upping the ante with Spain.

    Funnily enough, they are allied with the UK Labour Party but have traditionally been much more hawkish on Spain - and slightly less pro-European - than their main rivals, the Gibraltar Social Democrats.

    I presume this dates from the days when they largely represented the political wing of Trade Unions of civilian dockers and loadies who were working in what was really one large military base.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/848911818797887488

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/848912156762492930

    And your regular reminder: Oppositions normally peak mid-term, with Governments making up ground in the run up to elections.

    This is no normal opposition - it'll be stunning to see them soar up in the polls in the final day.
  • TheWhiteRabbit
    TheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/848911818797887488

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/848912156762492930

    And your regular reminder: Oppositions normally peak mid-term, with Governments making up ground in the run up to elections.

    So question is whether the underperformer (which is usually the government) gets the swingback or does the government qua government?
  • Alistair
    Alistair Posts: 23,670
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    My all time favourite political bet was with Coral at the last GE.

    Bet on would there be more Tory MPs in Scotland than pandas.

    I liked Coral's Party Tie colours for the debate market. That was bonkers odds.
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    TOPPING said:

    TGOHF said:

    TOPPING said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Meanwhile back with the grown ups:

    Prime Minister Theresa May has laughed off journalists' questions about going to war with Spain following the Gibraltar Brexit row.

    Mrs May said her approach to negotiations was "definitely jaw jaw".

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-39475127

    Interesting quotes from Jack Straw in that article. Happy to bat for anyone but Britain.

    He has learnt nothing and forgotten nothing.

    PS. It is rather amusing the PM has been asked to rule out war with Spain.
    Rather amusing? Sit back for a moment and ponder: in whatever level of seriousness (and I agree she handled it well), she is talking of war with another European nation. Not quite WWIII or not quite not WWIII but extraordinary nevertheless.
    I haven't seen her talking of war anywhere other than to answer silly questions. Link if incorrect.
    So you haven't seen her talking of war anywhere other than when she answered a question about it.

    K.
    "Do you want war ?"

    "No"

    "WARMONGER !!!!"

  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/polhomeeditor/status/848914639823962112
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    TOPPING said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Meanwhile back with the grown ups:

    Prime Minister Theresa May has laughed off journalists' questions about going to war with Spain following the Gibraltar Brexit row.

    Mrs May said her approach to negotiations was "definitely jaw jaw".

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-39475127

    Interesting quotes from Jack Straw in that article. Happy to bat for anyone but Britain.

    He has learnt nothing and forgotten nothing.

    PS. It is rather amusing the PM has been asked to rule out war with Spain.
    Rather amusing? Sit back for a moment and ponder: in whatever level of seriousness (and I agree she handled it well), she is talking of war with another European nation. Not quite WWIII or not quite not WWIII but extraordinary nevertheless.
    Oh, it's extraordinary alright.

    We'll see where this ends up. I think the EU has made a major political miscalculation and the UK has overreacted. But, everyone is a little bit too tense and wound up.

    I am happy to see humour as an antidote to that.
  • malcolmg
    malcolmg Posts: 44,523
    TOPPING said:

    TGOHF said:

    TOPPING said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Meanwhile back with the grown ups:

    Prime Minister Theresa May has laughed off journalists' questions about going to war with Spain following the Gibraltar Brexit row.

    Mrs May said her approach to negotiations was "definitely jaw jaw".

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-39475127

    Interesting quotes from Jack Straw in that article. Happy to bat for anyone but Britain.

    He has learnt nothing and forgotten nothing.

    PS. It is rather amusing the PM has been asked to rule out war with Spain.
    Rather amusing? Sit back for a moment and ponder: in whatever level of seriousness (and I agree she handled it well), she is talking of war with another European nation. Not quite WWIII or not quite not WWIII but extraordinary nevertheless.
    I haven't seen her talking of war anywhere other than to answer silly questions. Link if incorrect.
    So you haven't seen her talking of war anywhere other than when she answered a question about it.

    K.
    Takes him a bit of time to understand the finer nuances of words.
  • Black_Rook
    Black_Rook Posts: 8,905
    More from Lord Hayward:


    Labour is on course to lose 125 seats at next month's local elections - and suffer a "cataclysmic" defeat in Scotland, according to a new report.


    Polling expert Robert Hayward said the party will suffer after losing touch with its traditional working class base.

    Ukip are also on course to lose up to 90 seats as the party's post-Brexit decline in fortunes continues, he said.

    The Lib Dems and Tories, meanwhile, are set to be the biggest winners, with gains of around 100 seats each when voters across the UK go to the polls on 4 May.

    According to Lord Hayward, who is a Conservative peer, Labour is likely to lose control of Lancashire, Derbyshire and Nottinghamshire County Councils.

    Of the councils which are up for grabs, he said the party is only certain to maintain control of Durham.

    It is also set to lose control of Glasgow to the SNP, slip from first to third place in Edinburgh and also lose its small majority in Cardiff.

    He said: "It will be a reflection of where the Labour party actually is - it isn't appealing to its old core of working class voters in the Midlands, the north and also Scotland."

    Lord Hayward added that the result in Scotland - where Labour support has slipped from 29% the last time these seats were fought in 2012 to just 14% today - will be "cataclysmic" for the party.

    The SNP are likely to maintain their current position in Scotland by gaining seats from Labour, but losing others to the Conservatives, including in Perth and Kinross.

    Elsewhere, he said the Tories were likely to make gains from Ukip in East Sussex, Norfolk and Lincolnshire, while the Lib Dems will also make progress in Gloucestershire and could regain overall control of Cornwall and Somerset.

    Based on his findings, Lord Hayward said the Conservatives would be on course for a majority of more than 100 seats if Theresa May called a snap election this year.


    https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/news/84816/labour-set-lose-125-council-seats-next-month-and
  • david_herdson
    david_herdson Posts: 18,357
    DavidL said:

    Black_Rook said:

    Conservative leads over Labour in GB-wide polls since start of March: 16, 19, 13, 17, 13, 13, 17, 19, 16, 18, and 18pts. Average 16.3%.

    The last single digit value was 7pts, with Opinium two months ago, and the other two single figure leads this year were recorded in early January. There's enough evidence to suggest that the Tory lead is actually continuing to widen.

    Early July 2016 (pre-Theresa May): 5.0%
    Late July (post-Theresa May): 11.0%
    August: 10.7%
    September: 10.9%
    October (post-Tory conference): 14.6%
    November: 12.4%
    December: 12.8%
    January 2017 (month of Corbyn re-launch): 13.0%
    February: 14.4%
    March: 16.1%

    What I find startling is not so much the lead as the levels of support that Labour is falling to. It is now not unusual to see then at the 25% level. In the golden days of Ed 30% looked a pretty solid floor. There has to be a serious risk that a demotivated base produces a national equivalent vote share of less than 25% next month.
    Actually, 24-27, while pretty horrible for an opposition party, isn't all that far from being historically unusual. There are quite a few periods since 1979 of the main opposition party polling around or below 30. Usually, however, that coincides with the third part/ies polling strongly.

    By contrast, the Tory leads are exceptionally unusual for this stage of a parliament. Glen O'Hara's just tweeted that the Con lead/deficit is 23.7% better now than at the equivalent time in 2010-5. Methodology might account for a small amount of that but the rest is very real.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Artist said:

    Still not 20% behind yet.

    I've never seen Paddy Power offer anything interesting political betting wise.

    Markets up for every Northern Ireland seat in the recent election, they had the DUP too short generally.
    2nd EU Membership Referendum Before 2019? - No @ 1/5
    Washington DC Democrat @ 1-50.
    Montana GOP 1-6.
    Will candidate win nomination (Trump) outright in the 1st Round of balloting? - Yes @ 1/2

    Paddy has offered plenty of juicy markets.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    @Black_Rook

    The SNP are likely to maintain their current position in Scotland by gaining seats from Labour, but losing others to the Conservatives, including in Perth and Kinross.

    That just can't happen. I've been reliably informed you can count all the Scottish Tories on one hand :D
  • OblitusSumMe
    OblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited April 2017
    Black_Rook said:

    Absent Corbyn falling under a bus or the Conservatives themselves falling into a fresh bout of civil war over Brexit, the extent of the Tory landslide at the next GE seems to be governed mainly by how much of what's left of the Ukip vote they can steal.

    Assuming that the next election is, as scheduled, in 2020, it also depends on whether May can keep the tabloids on side with the Brexit deal.

    Cameron couldn't convince the right-wing press with his deal from Brussels and lost the referendum. If Labour aren't seen as a threat then May will have to worry about her right flank.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. Me, in a media sense, I can see what you mean about the right flank. But where's the political alternative?
  • Icarus
    Icarus Posts: 1,015
    I knew that the Labour Party was having a difficult time but as bad as when Gordon Brown was PM!!

    "ICM’s director Martin Boon says support for Labour has only fallen this low only twice since the firm started polling for the Guardian: in June and August 2009, when Gordon Brown was prime minister.
  • david_herdson
    david_herdson Posts: 18,357
    Pulpstar said:

    david_herdson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    david_herdson said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    New ICM poll:

    Conservatives: 43% (down 2 since Guardian/ICM two weeks ago)

    Labour: 25% (down 1)

    Ukip: 11% (up 1)

    Lib Dems: 11% (up 2)

    Greens: 4% (no change)

    Conservative lead: 18 points (down 1)

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/apr/03/brexit-michael-howard-accused-of-absurd-jingoism-over-gibraltar-threat-politics-live

    15:04

    Given these sort of polling figures and the differential regional / class swings, at what point do we start talking about Con winning at least one of the various Metro-mayoralties going to the polls in a month? WMids must be a very open race but - say it quietly - what about Gtr Manchester?
    I'd still be surprised if W Mids went blue judging by the 2016 locals in Coventry & Birmingham. These aren't Westminster elections.
    But the 2016 elections were held when the Con lead was about 3. It's now about 17.

    And while you're right that these aren't Westminster elections, it is a mayoral - and in mayoral elections, the candidate can have a disproportionate impact. I don't think I'm being biased in seeing the Con candidate as the stronger.
    He undoubtedly is, a bigger than 7% swing would be needed to win from 2016 I think, mind.

    Coventry Northwest voted

    6073 9605 21283

    28.53 45.13 Lab / Tory in 2016.

    Applying a 7% swing yields:

    35.53 38.13 So Simon still ahead

    It is pretty much the West Midlands mayoral election in microcosm.

    I agree that pairwise Street is the better candidate.
    The regional swing I calculated for my piece on Saturday for the E Midlands + W Midlands + Wales super-region was 7.6%, which would drop the margin to 1.4%. Add in Street's superiority as a candidate and that might well put him ahead, even before we consider whether Wales might be dragging that swing down or what the effect of transfers would be in what's an SV election (as a rule, they split for the more popular party).
  • david_herdson
    david_herdson Posts: 18,357
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    CarlottaVance said:

    Glen O'Hara‏ @gsoh31
    Polling news: @UKLabour's joint-worst ever result with @ICMResearch today. Figures go back to 1983.

    I am sure Justin Short Straws will still the glass as half full for labour.
    A glass half full is an opportunity; a glass a quarter full (as Labour's is), is an experience.
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    SimonStClare said:

    Scott_P said:

    ttps://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/848911524936765441

    Great quote from Gavin Sibthorpe, the man responsible for getting Jeremy Corbyn to dress appropriately.

    "I've tried, it's hard. I did get him in the white tails, and he looked smart on Remembrance Sunday. And I think that's where I peaked, really."
    LOL! Wasn't the white tails for The Last Leg comedy show?

    There's a great opportunity for a London tailor to be the guy that can dress the undresable man.
  • Black_Rook
    Black_Rook Posts: 8,905
    RobD said:

    @Black_Rook

    The SNP are likely to maintain their current position in Scotland by gaining seats from Labour, but losing others to the Conservatives, including in Perth and Kinross.

    That just can't happen. I've been reliably informed you can count all the Scottish Tories on one hand :D

    There are, of course, plenty of Tories. It's just that there's a hell of a lot more SNP.
  • david_herdson
    david_herdson Posts: 18,357
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/848911818797887488

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/848912156762492930

    And your regular reminder: Oppositions normally peak mid-term, with Governments making up ground in the run up to elections.

    So question is whether the underperformer (which is usually the government) gets the swingback or does the government qua government?
    There's not much precedent but in the best example - 1997-2001 - it was the underperforming Tories who recovered. That said, the Tories were making big gains (admittedly, from a dreadfully low baseline) in the interim local and European elections. Labour is still going backwards there.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    edited April 2017
    david_herdson said:


    The regional swing I calculated for my piece on Saturday for the E Midlands + W Midlands + Wales super-region was 7.6%, which would drop the margin to 1.4%. Add in Street's superiority as a candidate and that might well put him ahead, even before we consider whether Wales might be dragging that swing down or what the effect of transfers would be in what's an SV election (as a rule, they split for the more popular party).

    Oh Sure - I wish all the areas would have better presented LE results from 2016 too.

    Of the other "Smaller" areas (Outside Brum proper)

    Dudley looks fairly even, small Lab lead - Sandwell and Wolverhampton weigh in the Labour councillors though. Meriden/Solihull has an amusingly small number of votes for such a large area of the map by geography. Walsall again reasonably even though like Dudley a small Labour lead.
    & Of course Birmingham where The Conservatives start out 55k votes behind from 2016.

    Street's price (4-7) is utterly extraordinary given the general territory which is actually tougher than London on the face of it.
  • david_herdson
    david_herdson Posts: 18,357
    OblitusSumMe said:

    Black_Rook said:

    Absent Corbyn falling under a bus or the Conservatives themselves falling into a fresh bout of civil war over Brexit, the extent of the Tory landslide at the next GE seems to be governed mainly by how much of what's left of the Ukip vote they can steal.

    Assuming that the next election is, as scheduled, in 2020, it also depends on whether May can keep the tabloids on side with the Brexit deal.

    Cameron couldn't convince the right-wing press with his deal from Brussels and lost the referendum. If Labour aren't seen as a threat then May will have to worry about her right flank.
    The alternative to Cameron in the referendum was Brexit, which the Mail was perfectly happy with. The alternative to May in 2020 is Corbyn.
  • justin124
    justin124 Posts: 11,527
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/848911818797887488

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/848912156762492930

    And your regular reminder: Oppositions normally peak mid-term, with Governments making up ground in the run up to elections.

    So question is whether the underperformer (which is usually the government) gets the swingback or does the government qua government?
    I am aware of no example of a Government receiving any kind of swingback that has not been preceded by a swingaway.
    Re- Corbyn. I think we have reached the point where his continuing as Leader should be viewed as an act of malevolence on his part.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    justin124 said:

    Re- Corbyn. I think we have reached the point where his continuing as Leader should be viewed as an act of malevolence on his part.

    That point was reached prior to the vote of no confidence
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    Farage working for an EU bookie rather than traditional British? Poor show!!
  • Bromptonaut
    Bromptonaut Posts: 1,113
    Pulpstar said:

    david_herdson said:

    Pulpstar said:

    david_herdson said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    New ICM poll:

    Conservatives: 43% (down 2 since Guardian/ICM two weeks ago)

    Labour: 25% (down 1)

    Ukip: 11% (up 1)

    Lib Dems: 11% (up 2)

    Greens: 4% (no change)

    Conservative lead: 18 points (down 1)

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2017/apr/03/brexit-michael-howard-accused-of-absurd-jingoism-over-gibraltar-threat-politics-live

    15:04

    Given these sort of polling figures and the differential regional / class swings, at what point do we start talking about Con winning at least one of the various Metro-mayoralties going to the polls in a month? WMids must be a very open race but - say it quietly - what about Gtr Manchester?
    I'd still be surprised if W Mids went blue judging by the 2016 locals in Coventry & Birmingham. These aren't Westminster elections.
    But the 2016 elections were held when the Con lead was about 3. It's now about 17.

    And while you're right that these aren't Westminster elections, it is a mayoral - and in mayoral elections, the candidate can have a disproportionate impact. I don't think I'm being biased in seeing the Con candidate as the stronger.
    He undoubtedly is, a bigger than 7% swing would be needed to win from 2016 I think, mind.

    Coventry Northwest voted

    6073 9605 21283

    28.53 45.13 Lab / Tory in 2016.

    Applying a 7% swing yields:

    35.53 38.13 So Simon still ahead

    It is pretty much the West Midlands mayoral election in microcosm.

    I agree that pairwise Street is the better candidate.
    A friend who happens to be a member of the Labour Party organised a series of West Mids mayoral hustings recently. He felt that Andy Street was the most impressive candidate, followed by James Burn for the Greens.
  • david_herdson
    david_herdson Posts: 18,357
    Scott_P said:

    justin124 said:

    Re- Corbyn. I think we have reached the point where his continuing as Leader should be viewed as an act of malevolence on his part.

    That point was reached prior to the vote of no confidence
    No, it was reached immediately afterwards. It was perfectly fair of him to test the views of Labour MPs. It wasn't fair to ignore it when it came in so overwhelmingly negative.
  • freetochoose
    freetochoose Posts: 1,107
    Good for Nigel, PP clearly think he appeals to their client base
  • justin124
    justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Scott_P said:

    justin124 said:

    Re- Corbyn. I think we have reached the point where his continuing as Leader should be viewed as an act of malevolence on his part.

    That point was reached prior to the vote of no confidence
    He appears to have no sense of self respect at all - and how he is going to be viewed in the history books.
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/polhomeeditor/status/848914639823962112

    It's not often I agree wholeheartedly with Tony Blair...
  • Black_Rook
    Black_Rook Posts: 8,905
    justin124 said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/848911818797887488

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/848912156762492930

    And your regular reminder: Oppositions normally peak mid-term, with Governments making up ground in the run up to elections.

    So question is whether the underperformer (which is usually the government) gets the swingback or does the government qua government?
    I am aware of no example of a Government receiving any kind of swingback that has not been preceded by a swingaway.
    Re- Corbyn. I think we have reached the point where his continuing as Leader should be viewed as an act of malevolence on his part.
    But I'm sure he wouldn't see it that way.

    I stand to be proven spectacularly and completely wrong by events, but not only do I not see the Hard Left majority amongst the membership voting to get rid of Corbyn, I don't see the man giving up, either.

    He spent nigh-on a third of a century in the House of Commons before becoming leader as a consistently rebellious member of the minuscule Socialist Campaign Group, banging his head against the brick wall as the rest of the party moved away from him, but he never gave up. Now his faction finds itself, extraordinarily, in control of Labour - and with at least the chance to make that control permanent - why on Earth would he suddenly throw in the towel and let the PLP create a (relatively) moderate shortlist to replace him?

    The only way he might conceivably go before the election is if the McDonnell Amendment passes, so that he and his tiny core of Parliamentary allies can nominate an ideologically acceptable successor. And even then I'm not at all sure that they'd want to take the chance.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    david_herdson said:

    No, it was reached immediately afterwards. It was perfectly fair of him to test the views of Labour MPs. It wasn't fair to ignore it when it came in so overwhelmingly negative.

    He knew he was going to lose. Evrybody knew he was going to lose. All the vote did was tarnish the reputation of the Labour Party.

    Anyone with a shred of decency would have resigned before the public humiliation.
  • MarkHopkins
    MarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Sunderland boss David Moyes will be asked by the Football Association to explain himself after telling a BBC reporter she might "get a slap"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/39484238

    Shadow sports minister Dr Rosena Allin-Khan called on the Football Association to get involved.

    "This is disgraceful. David Moyes cannot get away with these sexist threats - the FA must take action immediately,"

    Huh? How is it sexist?

    Moyes said the reporter "might get a slap even though you're a woman"

    Surely he is being very even-handed by offering slaps to both men and women?

    (He shouldn't have said it all, but that's a different point).

  • SimonStClare
    SimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited April 2017
    Sandpit said:

    SimonStClare said:

    Scott_P said:

    ttps://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/848911524936765441

    Great quote from Gavin Sibthorpe, the man responsible for getting Jeremy Corbyn to dress appropriately.

    "I've tried, it's hard. I did get him in the white tails, and he looked smart on Remembrance Sunday. And I think that's where I peaked, really."
    LOL! Wasn't the white tails for The Last Leg comedy show?

    [snip]
    Nope, that was black tie - I think Gavin Sibthorpe was referring to the President Xi state dinner where Corbyn was decked out in white tie and tails.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/theobertram/status/848921616998420481
  • david_herdson
    david_herdson Posts: 18,357
    Scott_P said:

    david_herdson said:

    No, it was reached immediately afterwards. It was perfectly fair of him to test the views of Labour MPs. It wasn't fair to ignore it when it came in so overwhelmingly negative.

    He knew he was going to lose. Evrybody knew he was going to lose. All the vote did was tarnish the reputation of the Labour Party.

    Anyone with a shred of decency would have resigned before the public humiliation.
    Perhaps, though the vote also gave legitimacy to the botched 2016 leadership challenge.

    But I still don't think it was malevolent as such to stay on for the vote of no confidence. A few days makes no difference in the big scheme of things and the vote provided a very clear result: something we wouldn't have known otherwise and which the left in particular would have disputed.

    I don't think the vote - had its results been effected - would have damaged Labour. Most people would have forgotten about it now, were a capable new leader in place. Had it damaged Corbyn, well, so what? It'd be a personal hit rather than a party one.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. Hopkins, looking forward to the investigation into news reports, whereby casualties are often indicated as 'including women and children'. Which are obviously serious casualties, unlike when men get wounded/killed...

    Or the inherently sexist (and ironically named) Women and Equalities Committee.

    Or looking at horrendous racism, such as people tweeting that white people like to 'divide and rule'...

    Or we could go crazy, and actually try prosecuting someone for FGM.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. P, nonsense, Chairman Corbyn is universally beloved.

    Name me a more popular manhole-inspecting jam enthusiast!
  • david_herdson
    david_herdson Posts: 18,357
    SimonStClare said:

    Sandpit said:

    SimonStClare said:

    Scott_P said:

    ttps://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/848911524936765441

    Great quote from Gavin Sibthorpe, the man responsible for getting Jeremy Corbyn to dress appropriately.

    "I've tried, it's hard. I did get him in the white tails, and he looked smart on Remembrance Sunday. And I think that's where I peaked, really."
    LOL! Wasn't the white tails for The Last Leg comedy show?

    [snip]
    Nope, that was black tie - I think Gavin Sibthorpe was referring to the President Xi state dinner where Corbyn was decked out in white tie and tails.
    Yes, but didn't he turn up in his normal black street shoes, with the effect that he was wearing his grandfather's music hall outfit?
  • Animal_pb
    Animal_pb Posts: 608
    Scott_P said:

    david_herdson said:

    No, it was reached immediately afterwards. It was perfectly fair of him to test the views of Labour MPs. It wasn't fair to ignore it when it came in so overwhelmingly negative.

    He knew he was going to lose. Evrybody knew he was going to lose. All the vote did was tarnish the reputation of the Labour Party.

    Anyone with a shred of decency would have resigned before the public humiliation.
    More or less his entire career has been based on his belief that he is right, regardless of how unpopular he is. Just having all his Parliamentary colleagues tell him he was wrong (again) was water off a duck's back. If he's to be persuaded to move, it will have to be a different reason than "everyone else thinks he's wrong/deluded/electorally disastrous."
  • Essexit
    Essexit Posts: 1,966
    david_herdson said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/848911818797887488

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/848912156762492930

    And your regular reminder: Oppositions normally peak mid-term, with Governments making up ground in the run up to elections.

    So question is whether the underperformer (which is usually the government) gets the swingback or does the government qua government?
    There's not much precedent but in the best example - 1997-2001 - it was the underperforming Tories who recovered. That said, the Tories were making big gains (admittedly, from a dreadfully low baseline) in the interim local and European elections. Labour is still going backwards there.
    The government being ahead of the opposition is an unusual enough event that precedent may not be the best way to look at this. Corbyn shows no sign of wanting to make Labour electable, and there's nothing to suggest that he'd run a decent General Election campaign. I reckon if he leads Labour into the GE they'll do worse than current polling suggests.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Essexit said:

    david_herdson said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Black_Rook said:

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/848911818797887488

    https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/848912156762492930

    And your regular reminder: Oppositions normally peak mid-term, with Governments making up ground in the run up to elections.

    So question is whether the underperformer (which is usually the government) gets the swingback or does the government qua government?
    There's not much precedent but in the best example - 1997-2001 - it was the underperforming Tories who recovered. That said, the Tories were making big gains (admittedly, from a dreadfully low baseline) in the interim local and European elections. Labour is still going backwards there.
    The government being ahead of the opposition is an unusual enough event that precedent may not be the best way to look at this. Corbyn shows no sign of wanting to make Labour electable, and there's nothing to suggest that he'd run a decent General Election campaign. I reckon if he leads Labour into the GE they'll do worse than current polling suggests.
    Looking behind headline scores at leader ratings certainly suggests Jeremy is the man for this job.

    55 points behind May

    IN LONDON.
  • malcolmg
    malcolmg Posts: 44,523
    Black_Rook said:

    RobD said:

    @Black_Rook

    The SNP are likely to maintain their current position in Scotland by gaining seats from Labour, but losing others to the Conservatives, including in Perth and Kinross.

    That just can't happen. I've been reliably informed you can count all the Scottish Tories on one hand :D

    There are, of course, plenty of Tories. It's just that there's a hell of a lot more SNP.
    I would say there are some Tories, then there are the dumb Lib Dems , Labour refugees and right wing fruitcakes who cannot bring themselves to vote SNP so tag along with Tories , but as you say they are miles and miles behind the SNP and will remain so for a very very long time.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Opinionway

    Le Pen 25% Macron 24% Fillon 19% Melenchon 15% Hamon 11%
    http://presicote.factoviz.com/index/more/id/qoo_lew_1
  • Black_Rook
    Black_Rook Posts: 8,905
    The tables are now out for the Guardian/ICM poll. They've broken down the movement of 2015 voters by Leave/Remain (usual caveats about small sub-samples apply):

    * Tory 2015 vote very stable: 90%+ staying with party
    * Labour is holding about 70% of its 2015 vote. It is shedding Leavers to Con and Ukip, and Remainers to the Lib Dems, at the same time
    * The Lib Dems' 2015 vote was mostly Remain, and that portion is looking firm. About a quarter were Leavers and some of those have peeled off to Labour or the Tories
    * Ukip has shed about one third of its 2015 voters to the Tories

    Beyond that, the usual horrible splits apply for Labour. Labour is behind amongst all age groups except 18-24, all social classes, all groups arranged by working status except the jobless, and in all geographic regions except Wales. The vote share in the Midlands (23%) is awful, they're only at 20% in the South because ICM don't separate out London, and they're at 12% for Scotland but I suppose we expect little better from that quarter nowadays.

    The Tories outpoll Labour 61:12 amongst all pensioners, broadly consistent with recent YouGov findings, and are just short of 50% overall in England.

    https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/04/2017_guardian_apr1_poll.pdf
  • Robert_Of_Sheffield
    Robert_Of_Sheffield Posts: 207
    Today, I got a questionnaire in the post from Labour, asking about the policies I'd like to see implemented. There are some multiple choice question, and a soace for open ended comment.

    Sending me this questionnaire is really a pretty bad idea for two reasons.

    Firstly, I live in Sheffield Brightside & Hillsborough, one of Labour's safest seats. Finding out what voters round here want won't help them much in the marginals where the election will be decided.

    Secondly, despite my address I'm not actually a regular Labour voter, and there's little chance of me voting for them in 2020. I'm now tempted to return the survey with plausible wrong answers, Any reply suggesting Labour should privatise all the schools would presumably be discarded as obviously spurious, but if I said it should be Labour policy to withdraw from the all the remaining legacies of empire, like Cyprus, the Falkland and Gibraltar, Labour might be willing to believe that's what their voters in Sheffield want.
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