politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » For the record where BREXIT opinion stood on Article 50 day
Comments
-
-
CBI have been in constant touch with all their counterparts in Europe who all are demanding a trade deal. Economics will beat politics in the endchestnut said:
Depends on who you listen to.Pulpstar said:
Well they don't really need a deal.kle4 said:So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
Irish farmers, Dutch food processors, French and Spanish fishermen......
They will be at each other like rats in a sack before you know it.
We've thrown a very big cat among the pigeons.0 -
Mr. NorthWales, politics trumped economics on the single currency.0
-
0
-
Today will have a paralysing effect on the EU as everytime an EU leader or prime minister holds a press conference, or is caught in the street, Brexit will be the only subject for journalists. I expect there could be some very grumpy EU officials on screens over the next 2 years plus0
-
Hollande apart (and who really cares what he thinks about anything?) I have found the expressions of sadness and regret from EU representatives today interesting. Is there a regret that they gave Cameron so little of substance to sell to the UK? Or is it increasingly obvious that we were on different paths and it was always a matter of when not if?
I am honestly not sure. If they had given Cameron something substantial on freedom of movement, imposed the kind of welfare tourism restrictions the Germans want but are not brave enough to fight for, for example, Cameron could have won. It was close after all. If he had won (unlike Scotland unfortunately) I really don't think we would have gone up that hill again for a considerable period of time. And who knows what would have happened to attitudes in the meantime.
None of this really matters because we are leaving now. But the might of beens are interesting. There was nothing inevitable about the path we are now on. A lot of decisions got us here.0 -
More like 57 suited. The EU probably has something like A9o.IanB2 said:
People think our hand is better than it is because we're united and fairly close (suited), whereas the Eu is a large collection of countries (offsuit, unconnected).
Fundamentally we're alot smaller than them though.
Multiway we'd play ok - but this is a heads up match, we'll have to play very cute and need a fair bit of luck to extract a decent position.0 -
Well. There's a surprise:
James Forsyth @JGForsyth
Merkel's comments not quite the blanket rejection of May's position that it is being portrayed as
Pawel Swidlicki @pswidlicki
People misinterpreting Merkel on parallel talks, she says "negotiations must first clarify how we will disentangle interlinked relationship"0 -
I've taken 2-7 offsuit all the way before.JonathanD said:
Our cards are the equivalent of a poker 2 and 7.kle4 said:So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
And lost with pocket aces.
It's how you play, mixed with fortune.0 -
This is a superb posting, Stodge.stodge said:Afternoon all
I've very mixed feelings about today and although I voted LEAVE last year and am in no doubt it is the correct path for the country I am far from in a triumphalist frame of mind.
I consider the Single Market a disaster - it has sucked money and people from the impoverished periphery to a few areas of over-weaning economic power. Whether it be London, the Rhineland or other areas, the richer areas have got richer with the weight of people drawn to them while the peripheries have been depopulated and impoverished.
The Euro has similarly been catastrophic - had serious and rigorous criteria existed and been applied, a small number of northern European countries (Germany, Austria, Holland, Luxembourg, Finland perhaps) might have been well suited to joining an economic union (though they could have saved a lot of time and just called it the Mark or the Florin).0 -
Yes - our huge trade deficit with Germany is a real disadvantage to a trade deal...JonathanD said:
Our cards are the equivalent of a poker 2 and 7.kle4 said:So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
0 -
In other words the political questions come first. Will, for example, Scotland's right to self-determination be respected?CarlottaVance said:Well. There's a surprise:
James Forsyth @JGForsyth
Merkel's comments not quite the blanket rejection of May's position that it is being portrayed as
Pawel Swidlicki @pswidlicki
People misinterpreting Merkel on parallel talks, she says "negotiations must first clarify how we will disentangle interlinked relationship"0 -
Mr. Glenn, the only people who don't want to respect the vote of the Scottish people in 2014 are MSPs from the SNP and Green parties.0
-
Seriously, William - do you think Merkel gives a flying one about Scotland?williamglenn said:
In other words the political questions come first. Will, for example, Scotland's right to self-determination be respected?CarlottaVance said:Well. There's a surprise:
James Forsyth @JGForsyth
Merkel's comments not quite the blanket rejection of May's position that it is being portrayed as
Pawel Swidlicki @pswidlicki
People misinterpreting Merkel on parallel talks, she says "negotiations must first clarify how we will disentangle interlinked relationship"0 -
Many of the things that they may have offered to Cameron are precisely the things that they may be forced to face up to anyway.DavidL said:Hollande apart (and who really cares what he thinks about anything?) I have found the expressions of sadness and regret from EU representatives today interesting. Is there a regret that they gave Cameron so little of substance to sell to the UK? Or is it increasingly obvious that we were on different paths and it was always a matter of when not if?
I am honestly not sure. If they had given Cameron something substantial on freedom of movement, imposed the kind of welfare tourism restrictions the Germans want but are not brave enough to fight for, for example, Cameron could have won. It was close after all. If he had won (unlike Scotland unfortunately) I really don't think we would have gone up that hill again for a considerable period of time. And who knows what would have happened to attitudes in the meantime.
None of this really matters because we are leaving now. But the might of beens are interesting. There was nothing inevitable about the path we are now on. A lot of decisions got us here.
It's quite obvious that the EU will change, and in my view its likely to change in ways that mean it compromises on some of the big ideals - like free movement.
I think we'll (just about) be better outside the EU, but I'm absolutely sure that the EU will benefit from being forced to face up to these issues now rather than later.0 -
They had a once in a generation opportunity to decide the matter two and a half years ago.....williamglenn said:
In other words the political questions come first. Will, for example, Scotland's right to self-determination be respected?CarlottaVance said:Well. There's a surprise:
James Forsyth @JGForsyth
Merkel's comments not quite the blanket rejection of May's position that it is being portrayed as
Pawel Swidlicki @pswidlicki
People misinterpreting Merkel on parallel talks, she says "negotiations must first clarify how we will disentangle interlinked relationship"0 -
"but hopefully soon anyway" doesn't quite count as "Merkel rejects May plan", does it?SeanT said:0 -
Fundamentally you àlways want bigger cards thoughGeoffM said:
I've taken 2-7 offsuit all the way before.JonathanD said:
Our cards are the equivalent of a poker 2 and 7.kle4 said:So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
And lost with pocket aces.
It's how you play, mixed with fortune.0 -
SeanT said:
I thought Tusk for one, looked genuinely sad (almost in tears at one point) and I am very sure they realise they fucked up the negotiation with Cameron, and they now quite bitterly regret it.DavidL said:Hollande apart (and who really cares what he thinks about anything?) I have found the expressions of sadness and regret from EU representatives today interesting. Is there a regret that they gave Cameron so little of substance to sell to the UK? Or is it increasingly obvious that we were on different paths and it was always a matter of when not if?
I am honestly not sure. If they had given Cameron something substantial on freedom of movement, imposed the kind of welfare tourism restrictions the Germans want but are not brave enough to fight for, for example, Cameron could have won. It was close after all. If he had won (unlike Scotland unfortunately) I really don't think we would have gone up that hill again for a considerable period of time. And who knows what would have happened to attitudes in the meantime.
None of this really matters because we are leaving now. But the might of beens are interesting. There was nothing inevitable about the path we are now on. A lot of decisions got us here.
As you say, a fairly modest offer on Free Movement (for instance: what the Germans themselves imposed on Eastern Europeans for years after the Accession) would have won the referendum for REMAIN, probably quite easily.
Brexit wasn't only Cameron's cock-up. The Europeans who negotiated with him are also culpable. And they must know it.
DavidMapstone @DavidMapstone
An important point, often overlooked.
Ray Bassett @ray_basssett
sad day for Ireland as Brexit is triggered. Those in Irish Government who failed to assist Cameron in his re negotiation should be ashamed0 -
Yes but not before 2020 at the earliestwilliamglenn said:
In other words the political questions come first. Will, for example, Scotland's right to self-determination be respected?CarlottaVance said:Well. There's a surprise:
James Forsyth @JGForsyth
Merkel's comments not quite the blanket rejection of May's position that it is being portrayed as
Pawel Swidlicki @pswidlicki
People misinterpreting Merkel on parallel talks, she says "negotiations must first clarify how we will disentangle interlinked relationship"0 -
Even if so, if the EU is as noble as they claim to be, they won't take undue advantage out of that because of hurt feelings.JonathanD said:
Our cards are the equivalent of a poker 2 and 7.kle4 said:So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
0 -
Certainly not like we do - that's why we needed to be more open from this starting point than them, to show willing. We shall soon see if they mean to be reasonable or not in response.Pulpstar said:
Well they don't really need a deal.kle4 said:So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
0 -
Freedom of movement was a perfectly sound idea in a grouping of 8 or 9 northern European countries with very similar standards of living and not a great tendency to move anyway. The expansion eastwards into much poorer countries was really the point for the rethink.Omnium said:
Many of the things that they may have offered to Cameron are precisely the things that they may be forced to face up to anyway.DavidL said:Hollande apart (and who really cares what he thinks about anything?) I have found the expressions of sadness and regret from EU representatives today interesting. Is there a regret that they gave Cameron so little of substance to sell to the UK? Or is it increasingly obvious that we were on different paths and it was always a matter of when not if?
I am honestly not sure. If they had given Cameron something substantial on freedom of movement, imposed the kind of welfare tourism restrictions the Germans want but are not brave enough to fight for, for example, Cameron could have won. It was close after all. If he had won (unlike Scotland unfortunately) I really don't think we would have gone up that hill again for a considerable period of time. And who knows what would have happened to attitudes in the meantime.
None of this really matters because we are leaving now. But the might of beens are interesting. There was nothing inevitable about the path we are now on. A lot of decisions got us here.
It's quite obvious that the EU will change, and in my view its likely to change in ways that mean it compromises on some of the big ideals - like free movement.
I think we'll (just about) be better outside the EU, but I'm absolutely sure that the EU will benefit from being forced to face up to these issues now rather than later.
I think it is damaging for both. We have been irritated by excessive immigration into this country to the point we have left but economies in eastern Europe are losing a dangerously high percentage of their more able and skilled workforce. In the short term their remittances help but will their children be inclined to do the same?
The reluctance to face the economic consequences of this is just stupid. Just as California's draining of talent has resulted in many American states living in almost permanent depression so we have parts of Europe who are suffering something equivalent to the Black Death. If the EU had addressed this we would still be members.
0 -
The Scotish people must be morons for electing them then.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Glenn, the only people who don't want to respect the vote of the Scottish people in 2014 are MSPs from the SNP and Green parties.
0 -
CarlottaVance said:
"but hopefully soon anyway" doesn't quite count as "Merkel rejects May plan", does it?SeanT said:
No, but it doesn't seem far off - despite the 'hopefully soon', if we don't do them in parallel then the first will take the entire time I'd guess.CarlottaVance said:
"but hopefully soon anyway" doesn't quite count as "Merkel rejects May plan", does it?SeanT said:
Seems like a Merkel statement - something for everyone but saying very little.0 -
too stupid winsAlistair said:
The Scotish people must be morons for electing them then.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Glenn, the only people who don't want to respect the vote of the Scottish people in 2014 are MSPs from the SNP and Green parties.
0 -
Play Omaha Hi-Lo.Pulpstar said:
Fundamentally you àlways want bigger cards thoughGeoffM said:
I've taken 2-7 offsuit all the way before.JonathanD said:
Our cards are the equivalent of a poker 2 and 7.kle4 said:So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
And lost with pocket aces.
It's how you play, mixed with fortune.
Pot Limit obviously.0 -
Remember a certain Mr Smithson tipped Le Pen not to make the run off when he appeared on the Newsnight?
https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/8471191393533829120 -
On the European issues I completely agree. (Don't know enough about the US to comment on what you say)DavidL said:
Freedom of movement was a perfectly sound idea in a grouping of 8 or 9 northern European countries with very similar standards of living and not a great tendency to move anyway. The expansion eastwards into much poorer countries was really the point for the rethink.Omnium said:
Many of the things that they may have offered to Cameron are precisely the things that they may be forced to face up to anyway.DavidL said:Hollande apart (and who really cares what he thinks about anything?) I have found the expressions of sadness and regret from EU representatives today interesting. Is there a regret that they gave Cameron so little of substance to sell to the UK? Or is it increasingly obvious that we were on different paths and it was always a matter of when not if?
I am honestly not sure. If they had given Cameron something substantial on freedom of movement, imposed the kind of welfare tourism restrictions the Germans want but are not brave enough to fight for, for example, Cameron could have won. It was close after all. If he had won (unlike Scotland unfortunately) I really don't think we would have gone up that hill again for a considerable period of time. And who knows what would have happened to attitudes in the meantime.
None of this really matters because we are leaving now. But the might of beens are interesting. There was nothing inevitable about the path we are now on. A lot of decisions got us here.
It's quite obvious that the EU will change, and in my view its likely to change in ways that mean it compromises on some of the big ideals - like free movement.
I think we'll (just about) be better outside the EU, but I'm absolutely sure that the EU will benefit from being forced to face up to these issues now rather than later.
I think it is damaging for both. We have been irritated by excessive immigration into this country to the point we have left but economies in eastern Europe are losing a dangerously high percentage of their more able and skilled workforce. In the short term their remittances help but will their children be inclined to do the same?
The reluctance to face the economic consequences of this is just stupid. Just as California's draining of talent has resulted in many American states living in almost permanent depression so we have parts of Europe who are suffering something equivalent to the Black Death. If the EU had addressed this we would still be members.0 -
If I were an EU bigwig I would be worrying today not about the UK per se but about the UK as the beginning of the end. We have all talked endlessly about the technical and procedural difficulties of just one country leaving. If the whole thing unwinds, an orderly and peaceful dissolution of EU and eurozone is not going to happen.DavidL said:Hollande apart (and who really cares what he thinks about anything?) I have found the expressions of sadness and regret from EU representatives today interesting. Is there a regret that they gave Cameron so little of substance to sell to the UK? Or is it increasingly obvious that we were on different paths and it was always a matter of when not if?
I am honestly not sure. If they had given Cameron something substantial on freedom of movement, imposed the kind of welfare tourism restrictions the Germans want but are not brave enough to fight for, for example, Cameron could have won. It was close after all. If he had won (unlike Scotland unfortunately) I really don't think we would have gone up that hill again for a considerable period of time. And who knows what would have happened to attitudes in the meantime.
None of this really matters because we are leaving now. But the might of beens are interesting. There was nothing inevitable about the path we are now on. A lot of decisions got us here.0 -
Being nasty to the UK isn't going to save the European Union.SeanT said:
It could get interesting very quickly if they say €60bn or no deal. TMay won't be able to accept it.kle4 said:So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
Talks will collapse, we could crash out to WTO by the summer.
Exciting times.0 -
I think the Greeks and the Italians (both of whom have the added complication of the Euro of course) will be watching very carefully to see if any of the UK disaster stories come to fruition. If they don't....Ishmael_Z said:
If I were an EU bigwig I would be worrying today not about the UK per se but about the UK as the beginning of the end. We have all talked endlessly about the technical and procedural difficulties of just one country leaving. If the whole thing unwinds, an orderly and peaceful dissolution of EU and eurozone is not going to happen.DavidL said:Hollande apart (and who really cares what he thinks about anything?) I have found the expressions of sadness and regret from EU representatives today interesting. Is there a regret that they gave Cameron so little of substance to sell to the UK? Or is it increasingly obvious that we were on different paths and it was always a matter of when not if?
I am honestly not sure. If they had given Cameron something substantial on freedom of movement, imposed the kind of welfare tourism restrictions the Germans want but are not brave enough to fight for, for example, Cameron could have won. It was close after all. If he had won (unlike Scotland unfortunately) I really don't think we would have gone up that hill again for a considerable period of time. And who knows what would have happened to attitudes in the meantime.
None of this really matters because we are leaving now. But the might of beens are interesting. There was nothing inevitable about the path we are now on. A lot of decisions got us here.0 -
I think they need to be careful.Pulpstar said:
Well they don't really need a deal.kle4 said:So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
May has been very reasonable today. Our national character is that we don't respond well to those being unreasonable or trying to bully us.
If the EU continues in this vein I'd expect UK public opinion to swing firmly behind May.0 -
Nasty how quaint.Casino_Royale said:
Being nasty to the UK isn't going to save the European Union.SeanT said:
It could get interesting very quickly if they say €60bn or no deal. TMay won't be able to accept it.kle4 said:So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
Talks will collapse, we could crash out to WTO by the summer.
Exciting times.0 -
The more they ask for in terms of compensation, the more its clear that the prior deal benefited them.Casino_Royale said:
Being nasty to the UK isn't going to save the European Union.SeanT said:
It could get interesting very quickly if they say €60bn or no deal. TMay won't be able to accept it.kle4 said:So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
Talks will collapse, we could crash out to WTO by the summer.
Exciting times.
I suspect we will pay something - say GBP20bn - the main obvious thing is to cover pensions. I'll be quite interested to see what the EU plan to do with such a windfall - I bet it's not a rebate to the remaining EU taxpayers.0 -
It's a very similar point to the one Stodge made so well downthread. Single markets have both winners and losers. And the winners tend to be the ones who are ahead at the starting gate.Omnium said:
On the European issues I completely agree. (Don't know enough about the US to comment on what you say)DavidL said:
Freedom of movement was a perfectly sound idea in a grouping of 8 or 9 northern European countries with very similar standards of living and not a great tendency to move anyway. The expansion eastwards into much poorer countries was really the point for the rethink.Omnium said:
Many of the things that they may have offered to Cameron are precisely the things that they may be forced to face up to anyway.DavidL said:Hollande apart (and who really cares what he thinks about anything?) I have found the expressions of sadness and regret from EU representatives today interesting. Is there a regret that they gave Cameron so little of substance to sell to the UK? Or is it increasingly obvious that we were on different paths and it was always a matter of when not if?
I am honestly not sure. If they had given Cameron something substantial on freedom of movement, imposed the kind of welfare tourism restrictions the Germans want but are not brave enough to fight for, for example, Cameron could have won. It was close after all. If he had won (unlike Scotland unfortunately) I really don't think we would have gone up that hill again for a considerable period of time. And who knows what would have happened to attitudes in the meantime.
None of this really matters because we are leaving now. But the might of beens are interesting. There was nothing inevitable about the path we are now on. A lot of decisions got us here.
It's quite obvious that the EU will change, and in my view its likely to change in ways that mean it compromises on some of the big ideals - like free movement.
I think we'll (just about) be better outside the EU, but I'm absolutely sure that the EU will benefit from being forced to face up to these issues now rather than later.
I think it is damaging for both. We have been irritated by excessive immigration into this country to the point we have left but economies in eastern Europe are losing a dangerously high percentage of their more able and skilled workforce. In the short term their remittances help but will their children be inclined to do the same?
The reluctance to face the economic consequences of this is just stupid. Just as California's draining of talent has resulted in many American states living in almost permanent depression so we have parts of Europe who are suffering something equivalent to the Black Death. If the EU had addressed this we would still be members.0 -
The EU no longer has any reason to care about UK public opinion.Casino_Royale said:
I think they need to be careful.Pulpstar said:
Well they don't really need a deal.kle4 said:So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
May has been very reasonable today. Our national character is that we don't respond well to those being unreasonable or trying to bully us.
If the EU continues in this vein I'd expect UK public opinion to swing firmly behind May.0 -
Tell that to Verhofstadt...AlastairMeeks said:
The EU no longer has any reason to care about UK public opinion.Casino_Royale said:
I think they need to be careful.Pulpstar said:
Well they don't really need a deal.kle4 said:So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
May has been very reasonable today. Our national character is that we don't respond well to those being unreasonable or trying to bully us.
If the EU continues in this vein I'd expect UK public opinion to swing firmly behind May.
0 -
The risks to both the EU and EZ have certainly risen.Ishmael_Z said:
If I were an EU bigwig I would be worrying today not about the UK per se but about the UK as the beginning of the end. We have all talked endlessly about the technical and procedural difficulties of just one country leaving. If the whole thing unwinds, an orderly and peaceful dissolution of EU and eurozone is not going to happen.DavidL said:Hollande apart (and who really cares what he thinks about anything?) I have found the expressions of sadness and regret from EU representatives today interesting. Is there a regret that they gave Cameron so little of substance to sell to the UK? Or is it increasingly obvious that we were on different paths and it was always a matter of when not if?
I am honestly not sure. If they had given Cameron something substantial on freedom of movement, imposed the kind of welfare tourism restrictions the Germans want but are not brave enough to fight for, for example, Cameron could have won. It was close after all. If he had won (unlike Scotland unfortunately) I really don't think we would have gone up that hill again for a considerable period of time. And who knows what would have happened to attitudes in the meantime.
None of this really matters because we are leaving now. But the might of beens are interesting. There was nothing inevitable about the path we are now on. A lot of decisions got us here.
If the non-EZ nations lose their blocking minority in the voting system they have seen their influence and control greatly diminished within Europe. They could, in effect, end up EFTA-ised.
The risk within the EZ is Ireland. It’s key trade relationships are west across the Atlantic and east across the Irish Sea. It finds itself, suddenly, in the same position as Britain has been but only more so, in that the majority of it’s trade is no longer going into the bloc it has surrendered significant influence to.
0 -
More is my guess. She's not her father, and she is saying things that make sense, and that people can get behind. Only a little above 40% mind. If pressed I'd say something like 42%.SeanT said:
The latest poll has Macron beating Le Pen 60/40 in the final round.williamglenn said:Remember a certain Mr Smithson tipped Le Pen not to make the run off when he appeared on the Newsnight?
https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/847119139353382912
I know the populist right is meant to be crashing all over Europe, Wilders came 8th, the Afd have become a knitting club, but that is a figure to make one pause.
Marine Le Pen, of the Front National, could get 40% of French votes in their presidential elections.0 -
Mr. Alistair, the Greens said they'd only back a referendum if a majority of Scots clearly wanted it. The SNP said a vote for them was not only not a vote for independence, it wasn't even a vote for a referendum.0
-
The balance of trade says otherwise.AlastairMeeks said:
The EU no longer has any reason to care about UK public opinion.Casino_Royale said:
I think they need to be careful.Pulpstar said:
Well they don't really need a deal.kle4 said:So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
May has been very reasonable today. Our national character is that we don't respond well to those being unreasonable or trying to bully us.
If the EU continues in this vein I'd expect UK public opinion to swing firmly behind May.0 -
That depends, doesn't it? If they want to do a deal then they can't make the terms politically impossible for Mrs May to accept.AlastairMeeks said:
The EU no longer has any reason to care about UK public opinion.Casino_Royale said:
I think they need to be careful.Pulpstar said:
Well they don't really need a deal.kle4 said:So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
May has been very reasonable today. Our national character is that we don't respond well to those being unreasonable or trying to bully us.
If the EU continues in this vein I'd expect UK public opinion to swing firmly behind May.
If they don't care if there's a deal or not, then you're right, of course.0 -
I think Barnier has said he wants the EU accountants to work out the precise figure - so agreement to principles would seem to be the issue - 100% to 29/3/19 - the haggle will be about the bit from then to the end of the 2020 budget.....SeanT said:
No. It possibly means she wants the UK to agree it owes money, along with an agreement on the Irish border, and reciprocal rights for EU/UK citizens. Then the other talks can start.CarlottaVance said:
"but hopefully soon anyway" doesn't quite count as "Merkel rejects May plan", does it?SeanT said:
We may not even have to specify the amount we owe: just agree we owe something, or give a ballpark figure, subject to further debate.
IF that is what Merkel means - and the EU concurs - then that could be done in weeks.0 -
The UK is not Luxembourg. The EU stands to lose: security and military cooperation with major military power, £9bn net contributions per year, the liquidity of the City of London, access through the ports/airports of the global trading hub of London, foreign policy links to the US and Commonwealth, and a lot of free market expertise.Pulpstar said:
Fundamentally you always want bigger cards thoughGeoffM said:
I've taken 2-7 offsuit all the way before.JonathanD said:
Our cards are the equivalent of a poker 2 and 7.kle4 said:So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
And lost with pocket aces.
It's how you play, mixed with fortune.
The EU economy is bigger, and what remains is more populous, but the UK in the event of "no deal" has a range of macroeconomic and fiscal options it can take to mitigate a hard exit domestically, and is even freer to act globally.0 -
they didnt care last year either, hence why we are where we are todayAlastairMeeks said:
The EU no longer has any reason to care about UK public opinion.Casino_Royale said:
I think they need to be careful.Pulpstar said:
Well they don't really need a deal.kle4 said:So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
May has been very reasonable today. Our national character is that we don't respond well to those being unreasonable or trying to bully us.
If the EU continues in this vein I'd expect UK public opinion to swing firmly behind May.
the didnt give a shit about greek opinion either0 -
It was EU arrogance at Cameron's negotiation bid and their dismissal of democratic reform in the EU that switched my voted from remain to leave.SeanT said:
I thought Tusk for one, looked genuinely sad (almost in tears at one point) and I am very sure they realise they fucked up the negotiation with Cameron, and they now quite bitterly regret it.DavidL said:Hollande apart (and who really cares what he thinks about anything?) I have found the expressions of sadness and regret from EU representatives today interesting. Is there a regret that they gave Cameron so little of substance to sell to the UK? Or is it increasingly obvious that we were on different paths and it was always a matter of when not if?
I am honestly not sure. If they had given Cameron something substantial on freedom of movement, imposed the kind of welfare tourism restrictions the Germans want but are not brave enough to fight for, for example, Cameron could have won. It was close after all. If he had won (unlike Scotland unfortunately) I really don't think we would have gone up that hill again for a considerable period of time. And who knows what would have happened to attitudes in the meantime.
None of this really matters because we are leaving now. But the might of beens are interesting. There was nothing inevitable about the path we are now on. A lot of decisions got us here.
As you say, a fairly modest offer on Free Movement (for instance: what the Germans themselves imposed on Eastern Europeans for years after the Accession) would have won the referendum for REMAIN, probably quite easily.
Brexit wasn't only Cameron's cock-up. The Europeans who negotiated with him are also culpable. And they must know it.
EU leaders screwed up big time. Brexit was avoidable, their hubris made it happen.0 -
They are very emotional.SeanT said:
I thought Tusk for one, looked genuinely sad (almost in tears at one point) and I am very sure they realise they fucked up the negotiation with Cameron, and they now quite bitterly regret it.DavidL said:Hollande apart (and who really cares what he thinks about anything?) I have found the expressions of sadness and regret from EU representatives today interesting. Is there a regret that they gave Cameron so little of substance to sell to the UK? Or is it increasingly obvious that we were on different paths and it was always a matter of when not if?
I am honestly not sure. If they had given Cameron something substantial on freedom of movement, imposed the kind of welfare tourism restrictions the Germans want but are not brave enough to fight for, for example, Cameron could have won. It was close after all. If he had won (unlike Scotland unfortunately) I really don't think we would have gone up that hill again for a considerable period of time. And who knows what would have happened to attitudes in the meantime.
None of this really matters because we are leaving now. But the might of beens are interesting. There was nothing inevitable about the path we are now on. A lot of decisions got us here.
As you say, a fairly modest offer on Free Movement (for instance: what the Germans themselves imposed on Eastern Europeans for years after the Accession) would have won the referendum for REMAIN, probably quite easily.
Brexit wasn't only Cameron's cock-up. The Europeans who negotiated with him are also culpable. And they must know it.
It just shows why we are leaving. The EU and the UK have drifted so far apart politically they simply can't understand one another.0 -
I'm no accountant, but I'm sure someone could work it out from this based upon either our share of the EU economy (16%), our share of the population (13%) or our share of the voting rights (8%).CarlottaVance said:
I think Barnier has said he wants the EU accountants to work out the precise figure - so agreement to principles would seem to be the issue - 100% to 29/3/19 - the haggle will be about the bit from then to the end of the 2020 budget.....SeanT said:
No. It possibly means she wants the UK to agree it owes money, along with an agreement on the Irish border, and reciprocal rights for EU/UK citizens. Then the other talks can start.CarlottaVance said:
"but hopefully soon anyway" doesn't quite count as "Merkel rejects May plan", does it?SeanT said:
We may not even have to specify the amount we owe: just agree we owe something, or give a ballpark figure, subject to further debate.
IF that is what Merkel means - and the EU concurs - then that could be done in weeks.
http://ec.europa.eu/budget/library/biblio/documents/2015/EU_AnnualAccounts2015_EN.pdf0 -
If the EU had any sense (it doesn't) it would have held an emergency summit, used the Brexit vote to trigger a major internal investigation, and "listened" to peoples right across Europe on reform.Omnium said:
Many of the things that they may have offered to Cameron are precisely the things that they may be forced to face up to anyway.DavidL said:Hollande apart (and who really cares what he thinks about anything?) I have found the expressions of sadness and regret from EU representatives today interesting. Is there a regret that they gave Cameron so little of substance to sell to the UK? Or is it increasingly obvious that we were on different paths and it was always a matter of when not if?
I am honestly not sure. If they had given Cameron something substantial on freedom of movement, imposed the kind of welfare tourism restrictions the Germans want but are not brave enough to fight for, for example, Cameron could have won. It was close after all. If he had won (unlike Scotland unfortunately) I really don't think we would have gone up that hill again for a considerable period of time. And who knows what would have happened to attitudes in the meantime.
None of this really matters because we are leaving now. But the might of beens are interesting. There was nothing inevitable about the path we are now on. A lot of decisions got us here.
It's quite obvious that the EU will change, and in my view its likely to change in ways that mean it compromises on some of the big ideals - like free movement.
I think we'll (just about) be better outside the EU, but I'm absolutely sure that the EU will benefit from being forced to face up to these issues now rather than later.
It would then have re-engaged with the UK on the basis of Bloomberg and looked at reforming free movement, and returning some powers to member states, at a European Council for all.
Instead it has ideologically hunkered down: double or quits.0 -
Mrs May position represents most of what the remaining Remainers want... free trade, friction-free borders, mutual guarantees for citizens, acceptance of EU standards, protection of workers' rights, etc. All she's asking for in return is the UK setting its own immigration policy, exit from the ECJ and the ability to trade with the rest of the world on our own terms. So why the wailing and gnashing of teeth? Have they read her statement today?
Do they really believe Brexit will mean the repatriation of 4m EU citizens, taxes cut to a flat 10% and Bill Cash as Chancellor of the Exchequer?0 -
Superb post, Stodge.stodge said:Afternoon all
I've very mixed feelings about today and although I voted LEAVE last year and am in no doubt it is the correct path for the country I am far from in a triumphalist frame of mind.
For all its many failings, the EU was no brutal tyranny and we were no subjugated province - most tyrannies don't have an A50 element - so talk of "freedom" is a shade overcooked.
I consider the Single Market a disaster - it has sucked money and people from the impoverished periphery to a few areas of over-weaning economic power. Whether it be London, the Rhineland or other areas, the richer areas have got richer with the weight of people drawn to them while the peripheries have been depopulated and impoverished.
The Euro has similarly been catastrophic - had serious and rigorous criteria existed and been applied, a small number of northern European countries (Germany, Austria, Holland, Luxembourg, Finland perhaps) might have been well suited to joining an economic union (though they could have saved a lot of time and just called it the Mark or the Florin).
As for Britain, since Messina it has been clear we have never truly belonged. Some, from Heath to Blair and even Cameron have tried laudably to make the connection but the Anglo-Saxon historical, cultural, social, political and economic identity isn't that of mainland Europe or even Scandinavia. We are different - there's nothing wrong with that, it's simply the truth.
For the future, the line from May, as much driven by political necessity as reality, is a woeful cliché montage of unity and unrealistic expectation. As Mr Mercury might have opined "we want it all and we want it in 2019". At the moment, anyone and everyone can vest their expectations in May - she is saying the only thing she can, that it will be all right and we will get what we want. The image of her signing at the desk looked more like a politician signing an instrument of surrender but of course it's not that.
Managing the totality of expectation isn't going to be easy - in a way the route the country has followed since Suez has reached a dead end. What is to be our place in the world - what do we want it to be ? I've no desire to live in a low-tax, unregulated sweat shop prostituting myself for any rich foreigner who wants somewhere to live or someone to serve them coffee or cut their hair or chauffeur them around London (or whatever).
As an internationalist, I believe we have much to offer but not as a glorified theme park. The post-EU world has to work for us in terms of making Britain a great place to live for the British in terms of jobs, homes, transport and a raft of other things. Safeguarding the rights of the poorest to welfare, decent jobs, pay, holidays and healthcare is for me paramount and that is from where A50 should be starting.
0 -
Yes, £20bn is the figure I used last week.Omnium said:
The more they ask for in terms of compensation, the more its clear that the prior deal benefited them.Casino_Royale said:
Being nasty to the UK isn't going to save the European Union.SeanT said:
It could get interesting very quickly if they say €60bn or no deal. TMay won't be able to accept it.kle4 said:So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
Talks will collapse, we could crash out to WTO by the summer.
Exciting times.
I suspect we will pay something - say GBP20bn - the main obvious thing is to cover pensions. I'll be quite interested to see what the EU plan to do with such a windfall - I bet it's not a rebate to the remaining EU taxpayers.0 -
Maybe.SeanT said:
If Macron wins, then fucks up, and the French economy continues to stagnate, and Muslim terror carries on, along with migration woes.... then I would expect Le Pen to actually win the NEXT French presidential election.Omnium said:
More is my guess. She's not her father, and she is saying things that make sense, and that people can get behind. Only a little above 40% mind. If pressed I'd say something like 42%.SeanT said:
The latest poll has Macron beating Le Pen 60/40 in the final round.williamglenn said:Remember a certain Mr Smithson tipped Le Pen not to make the run off when he appeared on the Newsnight?
https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/847119139353382912
I know the populist right is meant to be crashing all over Europe, Wilders came 8th, the Afd have become a knitting club, but that is a figure to make one pause.
Marine Le Pen, of the Front National, could get 40% of French votes in their presidential elections.
It's a bit like Farage being the acceptable face of UKIP. I strongly suspect that Farage actively dislikes most of his party. Le Pen won't be around in 2022 in my view.
Macron is (as far as I can see) a textbook economist, and that's really quite unfortunate given how textbook economics is faring just at the moment.0 -
You are in fantasy land. Get real. Read this from ConHomeCasino_Royale said:
The UK is not Luxembourg. The EU stands to lose: security and military cooperation with major military power, £9bn net contributions per year, the liquidity of the City of London, access through the ports/airports of the global trading hub of London, foreign policy links to the US and Commonwealth, and a lot of free market expertise.Pulpstar said:
Fundamentally you always want bigger cards thoughGeoffM said:
I've taken 2-7 offsuit all the way before.JonathanD said:
Our cards are the equivalent of a poker 2 and 7.kle4 said:So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
And lost with pocket aces.
It's how you play, mixed with fortune.
The EU economy is bigger, and what remains is more populous, but the UK in the event of "no deal" has a range of macroeconomic and fiscal options it can take to mitigate a hard exit domestically, and is even freer to act globally.
http://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2016/10/garvan-walshe-the-government-is-making-the-same-five-strategic-mistakes-on-brexit-that-we-made-in-iraq.html0 -
Had some clown ring up claiming that there was a delay due to Brexit to the distribution of final dividend, and report of a major UK plc. Brexit providing an excuse or cover for a boiler house scammer.0
-
Precisely.Carolus_Rex said:
That depends, doesn't it? If they want to do a deal then they can't make the terms politically impossible for Mrs May to accept.AlastairMeeks said:
The EU no longer has any reason to care about UK public opinion.Casino_Royale said:
I think they need to be careful.Pulpstar said:
Well they don't really need a deal.kle4 said:So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
May has been very reasonable today. Our national character is that we don't respond well to those being unreasonable or trying to bully us.
If the EU continues in this vein I'd expect UK public opinion to swing firmly behind May.
If they don't care if there's a deal or not, then you're right, of course.
I suspect EU unity may - perversely - fracture if they go too far down that road.
Not everyone wants to go down in the ship with Juncker, Verhofstadht and Tusk.0 -
0
-
No, I'm not in fantasy land. What I've written is correct.MikeSmithson said:
You are in fantasy land. Get real. Read this from ConHomeCasino_Royale said:
The UK is not Luxembourg. The EU stands to lose: security and military cooperation with major military power, £9bn net contributions per year, the liquidity of the City of London, access through the ports/airports of the global trading hub of London, foreign policy links to the US and Commonwealth, and a lot of free market expertise.Pulpstar said:
Fundamentally you always want bigger cards thoughGeoffM said:
I've taken 2-7 offsuit all the way before.JonathanD said:
Our cards are the equivalent of a poker 2 and 7.kle4 said:So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
And lost with pocket aces.
It's how you play, mixed with fortune.
The EU economy is bigger, and what remains is more populous, but the UK in the event of "no deal" has a range of macroeconomic and fiscal options it can take to mitigate a hard exit domestically, and is even freer to act globally.
http://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2016/10/garvan-walshe-the-government-is-making-the-same-five-strategic-mistakes-on-brexit-that-we-made-in-iraq.html
That article is months out of date now, btw.0 -
Now posting tweets from randomers on Twitter called "Dave"? Not sure even Scott_P stooped so low.williamglenn said:Carlotta will appreciate this one.
twitter.com/stoviesplz/status/847123502163509250 0 -
to which the obvious reply is verpiss dichwilliamglenn said:Carlotta will appreciate this one.
https://twitter.com/stoviesplz/status/8471235021635092500 -
Brexit think tank argues government should consult Brexit think tanks more widely shocker,...MikeSmithson said:
You are in fantasy land. Get real. Read this from ConHomeCasino_Royale said:
The UK is not Luxembourg. The EU stands to lose: security and military cooperation with major military power, £9bn net contributions per year, the liquidity of the City of London, access through the ports/airports of the global trading hub of London, foreign policy links to the US and Commonwealth, and a lot of free market expertise.Pulpstar said:
Fundamentally you always want bigger cards thoughGeoffM said:
I've taken 2-7 offsuit all the way before.JonathanD said:
Our cards are the equivalent of a poker 2 and 7.kle4 said:So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
And lost with pocket aces.
It's how you play, mixed with fortune.
The EU economy is bigger, and what remains is more populous, but the UK in the event of "no deal" has a range of macroeconomic and fiscal options it can take to mitigate a hard exit domestically, and is even freer to act globally.
http://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2016/10/garvan-walshe-the-government-is-making-the-same-five-strategic-mistakes-on-brexit-that-we-made-in-iraq.html0 -
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/republic-of-ireland/brexit-could-wipe-us-out-says-politician-representing-irish-border-counties-35574749.html
Any new UK-EU frontier border should be "in the Irish Sea and not in Ireland", he said.0 -
No they didn't. To both of those statements.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Alistair, the Greens said they'd only back a referendum if a majority of Scots clearly wanted it. The SNP said a vote for them was not only not a vote for independence, it wasn't even a vote for a referendum.
Sturgeon said a 2015 Westminster vote was not a vote for independence, and it wasn't. The 2016 manifesto spelled out that they would push for IndyRef 2 if Brexit happened and Scotland had voted Remain.0 -
It's an easy trap to fall into, but ConHome isn't infallible.MikeSmithson said:
You are in fantasy land. Get real. Read this from ConHomeCasino_Royale said:
The UK is not Luxembourg. The EU stands to lose: security and military cooperation with major military power, £9bn net contributions per year, the liquidity of the City of London, access through the ports/airports of the global trading hub of London, foreign policy links to the US and Commonwealth, and a lot of free market expertise.Pulpstar said:
Fundamentally you always want bigger cards thoughGeoffM said:
I've taken 2-7 offsuit all the way before.JonathanD said:
Our cards are the equivalent of a poker 2 and 7.kle4 said:So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
And lost with pocket aces.
It's how you play, mixed with fortune.
The EU economy is bigger, and what remains is more populous, but the UK in the event of "no deal" has a range of macroeconomic and fiscal options it can take to mitigate a hard exit domestically, and is even freer to act globally.
http://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2016/10/garvan-walshe-the-government-is-making-the-same-five-strategic-mistakes-on-brexit-that-we-made-in-iraq.html
CR is broadly right.0 -
The mistake the centrists might make, again, would be to use the vagaries of the voting system to ignore a significant proportion of the populationSeanT said:
The latest poll has Macron beating Le Pen 60/40 in the final round.williamglenn said:Remember a certain Mr Smithson tipped Le Pen not to make the run off when he appeared on the Newsnight?
https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/847119139353382912
I know the populist right is meant to be crashing all over Europe, Wilders came 8th, the Afd have become a knitting club, but that is a figure to make one pause.
Marine Le Pen, of the Front National, could get 40% of French votes in their presidential elections.0 -
Very true AlanAlanbrooke said:
they didnt care last year either, hence why we are where we are todayAlastairMeeks said:
The EU no longer has any reason to care about UK public opinion.Casino_Royale said:
I think they need to be careful.Pulpstar said:
Well they don't really need a deal.kle4 said:So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
May has been very reasonable today. Our national character is that we don't respond well to those being unreasonable or trying to bully us.
If the EU continues in this vein I'd expect UK public opinion to swing firmly behind May.
the didnt give a shit about greek opinion either0 -
Which makes the whole affair even more sad. Let's be brutally honest, the referendum was not about the EU, it was about immigration (for the majority who voted Leave). Mistakes were made by Cameron and the previous Labour administration on freedom of movement.SeanT said:
I thought Tusk for one, looked genuinely sad (almost in tears at one point) and I am very sure they realise they fucked up the negotiation with Cameron, and they now quite bitterly regret it.DavidL said:Hollande apart (and who really cares what he thinks about anything?) I have found the expressions of sadness and regret from EU representatives today interesting. Is there a regret that they gave Cameron so little of substance to sell to the UK? Or is it increasingly obvious that we were on different paths and it was always a matter of when not if?
I am honestly not sure. If they had given Cameron something substantial on freedom of movement, imposed the kind of welfare tourism restrictions the Germans want but are not brave enough to fight for, for example, Cameron could have won. It was close after all. If he had won (unlike Scotland unfortunately) I really don't think we would have gone up that hill again for a considerable period of time. And who knows what would have happened to attitudes in the meantime.
None of this really matters because we are leaving now. But the might of beens are interesting. There was nothing inevitable about the path we are now on. A lot of decisions got us here.
As you say, a fairly modest offer on Free Movement (for instance: what the Germans themselves imposed on Eastern Europeans for years after the Accession) would have won the referendum for REMAIN, probably quite easily.
Brexit wasn't only Cameron's cock-up. The Europeans who negotiated with him are also culpable. And they must know it.
I think (and hope) the UK will prosper outside the EU - however not as well as what could be achieved within the EU.0 -
Well that's at least more reasoned that acting as though civilization is ending because of this choice. It might even end up being proven correct, though hopefully not.murali_s said:
Which makes the whole affair even more sad. Let's be brutally honest, the referendum was not about the EU, it was about immigration (for the majority who voted Leave). Mistakes were made by Cameron and the previous Labour administration on freedom of movement.SeanT said:
I thought Tusk for one, looked genuinely sad (almost in tears at one point) and I am very sure they realise they fucked up the negotiation with Cameron, and they now quite bitterly regret it.DavidL said:Hollande apart (and who really cares what he thinks about anything?) I have found the expressions of sadness and regret from EU representatives today interesting. Is there a regret that they gave Cameron so little of substance to sell to the UK? Or is it increasingly obvious that we were on different paths and it was always a matter of when not if?
I am honestly not sure. If they had given Cameron something substantial on freedom of movement, imposed the kind of welfare tourism restrictions the Germans want but are not brave enough to fight for, for example, Cameron could have won. It was close after all. If he had won (unlike Scotland unfortunately) I really don't think we would have gone up that hill again for a considerable period of time. And who knows what would have happened to attitudes in the meantime.
None of this really matters because we are leaving now. But the might of beens are interesting. There was nothing inevitable about the path we are now on. A lot of decisions got us here.
As you say, a fairly modest offer on Free Movement (for instance: what the Germans themselves imposed on Eastern Europeans for years after the Accession) would have won the referendum for REMAIN, probably quite easily.
Brexit wasn't only Cameron's cock-up. The Europeans who negotiated with him are also culpable. And they must know it.
I think (and hope) the UK will prosper outside the EU - however not as well as what could be achieved within the EU.0 -
If the EU wishes to act towards the UK like a hostile state for political reasons, then the EU should also consider the consequence that the UK could do likewise.Yorkcity said:
Very true AlanAlanbrooke said:
they didnt care last year either, hence why we are where we are todayAlastairMeeks said:
The EU no longer has any reason to care about UK public opinion.Casino_Royale said:
I think they need to be careful.Pulpstar said:
Well they don't really need a deal.kle4 said:So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
May has been very reasonable today. Our national character is that we don't respond well to those being unreasonable or trying to bully us.
If the EU continues in this vein I'd expect UK public opinion to swing firmly behind May.
the didnt give a shit about greek opinion either
The UK could, in future, offer support and encouragement to other non-Eurozone states who may wish to secede rather than actively supporting the political integrity of the EU.0 -
Mr. kle4, some say The 100 is a prediction of what will happen because we left the EU.
I, for one, welcome our new lesbian overlords.
Overladies?
[It's due to come back to E4 next week, incidentally].0 -
I prefer the term Overdominatricies.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. kle4, some say The 100 is a prediction of what will happen because we left the EU.
I, for one, welcome our new lesbian overlords.
Overladies?
[It's due to come back to E4 next week, incidentally]. 0 -
You only need one of the 27 to say no deal.Noel Edmunds might be better conducting the British game show.Casino_Royale said:
Precisely.Carolus_Rex said:
That depends, doesn't it? If they want to do a deal then they can't make the terms politically impossible for Mrs May to accept.AlastairMeeks said:
The EU no longer has any reason to care about UK public opinion.Casino_Royale said:
I think they need to be careful.Pulpstar said:
Well they don't really need a deal.kle4 said:So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
May has been very reasonable today. Our national character is that we don't respond well to those being unreasonable or trying to bully us.
If the EU continues in this vein I'd expect UK public opinion to swing firmly behind May.
If they don't care if there's a deal or not, then you're right, of course.
I suspect EU unity may - perversely - fracture if they go too far down that road.
Not everyone wants to go down in the ship with Juncker, Verhofstadht and Tusk.0 -
Was the UK really doing that well in the EU in the first place?murali_s said:
Which makes the whole affair even more sad. Let's be brutally honest, the referendum was not about the EU, it was about immigration (for the majority who voted Leave). Mistakes were made by Cameron and the previous Labour administration on freedom of movement.SeanT said:
I thought Tusk for one, looked genuinely sad (almost in tears at one point) and I am very sure they realise they fucked up the negotiation with Cameron, and they now quite bitterly regret it.DavidL said:Hollande apart (and who really cares what he thinks about anything?) I have found the expressions of sadness and regret from EU representatives today interesting. Is there a regret that they gave Cameron so little of substance to sell to the UK? Or is it increasingly obvious that we were on different paths and it was always a matter of when not if?
I am honestly not sure. If they had given Cameron something substantial on freedom of movement, imposed the kind of welfare tourism restrictions the Germans want but are not brave enough to fight for, for example, Cameron could have won. It was close after all. If he had won (unlike Scotland unfortunately) I really don't think we would have gone up that hill again for a considerable period of time. And who knows what would have happened to attitudes in the meantime.
None of this really matters because we are leaving now. But the might of beens are interesting. There was nothing inevitable about the path we are now on. A lot of decisions got us here.
As you say, a fairly modest offer on Free Movement (for instance: what the Germans themselves imposed on Eastern Europeans for years after the Accession) would have won the referendum for REMAIN, probably quite easily.
Brexit wasn't only Cameron's cock-up. The Europeans who negotiated with him are also culpable. And they must know it.
I think (and hope) the UK will prosper outside the EU - however not as well as what could be achieved within the EU.0 -
It's also what I suggested in my blog last week.Casino_Royale said:
Yes, £20bn is the figure I used last week.Omnium said:
The more they ask for in terms of compensation, the more its clear that the prior deal benefited them.Casino_Royale said:
Being nasty to the UK isn't going to save the European Union.SeanT said:
It could get interesting very quickly if they say €60bn or no deal. TMay won't be able to accept it.kle4 said:So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
Talks will collapse, we could crash out to WTO by the summer.
Exciting times.
I suspect we will pay something - say GBP20bn - the main obvious thing is to cover pensions. I'll be quite interested to see what the EU plan to do with such a windfall - I bet it's not a rebate to the remaining EU taxpayers.
UK to pay into EU budget for four years from deal signing, starting at 80% of final year’s net payment, each subsequent year reducing to zero in 20% bites. [i.e. 8+6+4+2]
http://www.lifestuff.xyz/blog/art-of-the-brexit-deal
0 -
Institute for Government take on May's letter:
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/brexit-explained/article-50-letter0 -
0
-
I'd just pull out of the Baltic and offer Vlad a trade dealCasino_Royale said:
If the EU wishes to act towards the UK like a hostile state for political reasons, then the EU should also consider the consequence that the UK could do likewise.Yorkcity said:
Very true AlanAlanbrooke said:
they didnt care last year either, hence why we are where we are todayAlastairMeeks said:
The EU no longer has any reason to care about UK public opinion.Casino_Royale said:
I think they need to be careful.Pulpstar said:
Well they don't really need a deal.kle4 said:So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
May has been very reasonable today. Our national character is that we don't respond well to those being unreasonable or trying to bully us.
If the EU continues in this vein I'd expect UK public opinion to swing firmly behind May.
the didnt give a shit about greek opinion either
The UK could, in future, offer support and encouragement to other non-Eurozone states who may wish to secede rather than actively supporting the political integrity of the EU.0 -
And Rumania.....Alanbrooke said:
I'd just pull out of the Baltic and offer Vlad a trade dealCasino_Royale said:
If the EU wishes to act towards the UK like a hostile state for political reasons, then the EU should also consider the consequence that the UK could do likewise.Yorkcity said:
Very true AlanAlanbrooke said:
they didnt care last year either, hence why we are where we are todayAlastairMeeks said:
The EU no longer has any reason to care about UK public opinion.Casino_Royale said:
I think they need to be careful.Pulpstar said:
Well they don't really need a deal.kle4 said:So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
May has been very reasonable today. Our national character is that we don't respond well to those being unreasonable or trying to bully us.
If the EU continues in this vein I'd expect UK public opinion to swing firmly behind May.
the didnt give a shit about greek opinion either
The UK could, in future, offer support and encouragement to other non-Eurozone states who may wish to secede rather than actively supporting the political integrity of the EU.0 -
nix0
-
We have a relatively weak hand, the EU have a stronger hand. The negotiations will therefore follow accordingly. Time for people to grow up and face reality rather than post ignorant bluster or wrap themselves up in the flag.Casino_Royale said:
If the EU wishes to act towards the UK like a hostile state for political reasons, then the EU should also consider the consequence that the UK could do likewise.Yorkcity said:
Very true AlanAlanbrooke said:
they didnt care last year either, hence why we are where we are todayAlastairMeeks said:
The EU no longer has any reason to care about UK public opinion.Casino_Royale said:
I think they need to be careful.Pulpstar said:
Well they don't really need a deal.kle4 said:So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
May has been very reasonable today. Our national character is that we don't respond well to those being unreasonable or trying to bully us.
If the EU continues in this vein I'd expect UK public opinion to swing firmly behind May.
the didnt give a shit about greek opinion either
The UK could, in future, offer support and encouragement to other non-Eurozone states who may wish to secede rather than actively supporting the political integrity of the EU.0 -
But we both want to reach a deal that minimises disruption, so there's that!murali_s said:
We have a relatively weak hand, the EU have a stronger hand. The negotiations will therefore follow accordingly. Time for people to grow up and face reality rather than post ignorant bluster or wrap themselves up in the flag.Casino_Royale said:
If the EU wishes to act towards the UK like a hostile state for political reasons, then the EU should also consider the consequence that the UK could do likewise.Yorkcity said:
Very true AlanAlanbrooke said:
they didnt care last year either, hence why we are where we are todayAlastairMeeks said:
The EU no longer has any reason to care about UK public opinion.Casino_Royale said:
I think they need to be careful.Pulpstar said:
Well they don't really need a deal.kle4 said:So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
May has been very reasonable today. Our national character is that we don't respond well to those being unreasonable or trying to bully us.
If the EU continues in this vein I'd expect UK public opinion to swing firmly behind May.
the didnt give a shit about greek opinion either
The UK could, in future, offer support and encouragement to other non-Eurozone states who may wish to secede rather than actively supporting the political integrity of the EU.0 -
-
0
-
Mr. Calum, slightly odd not having an SNP representative this particular week.0
-
Why would you need Labour and Unite on the same panel?calum said:0 -
Sad to see the BBC failing to use Nuttall's full title and style.0
-
If you were being generous, MAYBE The Gower result?tlg86 said:
Blimey, that's a bit edgy for a site that's worried about being sued. FWIW, even if they did break the rules, I doubt that was the deciding factor.MikeSmithson said:
If it wasn't for the Tory expenses strategy in marginal seats they wouldn't have had a majority.Sunil_Prasannan said:
If it weren't for Dave's referendum, Brexit would never have happened?TheScreamingEagles said:I was more upset at Dave resigning than over the triggering of Article 50.
But the next 18 months are going to make or break a few political careers and possibly the country.
The LibDems would still have 8 MPs.
Oh, and best wishes for tonight's bash. Sorry not to be there, but I'm in Spain. While I still can!
0 -
Looks like a bubble !isam said:0 -
UK Prime Minister @Number10gov
PM on triggering Article 50: This is an historic moment from which there can be no turning back.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Number10gov/status/847135020393246720/video/10 -
We don't have a weak hand, we have a strong hand. If the world goes tits up then the UK will be the UK. The EU on the other hand is incredibly fragile. Our need for a good(ish) deal though is far greater than the need of the EU. The economics matter to us and the politics to them.murali_s said:
We have a relatively weak hand, the EU have a stronger hand. The negotiations will therefore follow accordingly. Time for people to grow up and face reality rather than post ignorant bluster or wrap themselves up in the flag.Casino_Royale said:
If the EU wishes to act towards the UK like a hostile state for political reasons, then the EU should also consider the consequence that the UK could do likewise.Yorkcity said:
Very true AlanAlanbrooke said:
they didnt care last year either, hence why we are where we are todayAlastairMeeks said:
The EU no longer has any reason to care about UK public opinion.Casino_Royale said:
I think they need to be careful.Pulpstar said:
Well they don't really need a deal.kle4 said:So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
May has been very reasonable today. Our national character is that we don't respond well to those being unreasonable or trying to bully us.
If the EU continues in this vein I'd expect UK public opinion to swing firmly behind May.
the didnt give a shit about greek opinion either
The UK could, in future, offer support and encouragement to other non-Eurozone states who may wish to secede rather than actively supporting the political integrity of the EU.0 -
We have a weaker hand, not a weak hand.murali_s said:
We have a relatively weak hand, the EU have a stronger hand. The negotiations will therefore follow accordingly. Time for people to grow up and face reality rather than post ignorant bluster or wrap themselves up in the flag.Casino_Royale said:
If the EU wishes to act towards the UK like a hostile state for political reasons, then the EU should also consider the consequence that the UK could do likewise.Yorkcity said:
Very true AlanAlanbrooke said:
they didnt care last year either, hence why we are where we are todayAlastairMeeks said:
The EU no longer has any reason to care about UK public opinion.Casino_Royale said:
I think they need to be careful.Pulpstar said:
Well they don't really need a deal.kle4 said:So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
May has been very reasonable today. Our national character is that we don't respond well to those being unreasonable or trying to bully us.
If the EU continues in this vein I'd expect UK public opinion to swing firmly behind May.
the didnt give a shit about greek opinion either
The UK could, in future, offer support and encouragement to other non-Eurozone states who may wish to secede rather than actively supporting the political integrity of the EU.0 -
The thames is worth a fortune.isam said:0 -
No worries - the SNP will take a good kicking anyway - as Ruth "don't mention Indyref2" Davidson goes into full Basil modeMorris_Dancer said:Mr. Calum, slightly odd not having an SNP representative this particular week.
0 -
I have felt for a long time the UK should act to set up policed routes across the Middle East for would be immigrants to Europe, and safe transport across the Mediterranean.0
-
Dream on. You are living in fantasy land.Omnium said:
We don't have a weak hand, we have a strong hand. If the world goes tits up then the UK will be the UK. The EU on the other hand is incredibly fragile. Our need for a good(ish) deal though is far greater than the need of the EU. The economics matter to us and the politics to them.murali_s said:
We have a relatively weak hand, the EU have a stronger hand. The negotiations will therefore follow accordingly. Time for people to grow up and face reality rather than post ignorant bluster or wrap themselves up in the flag.Casino_Royale said:
If the EU wishes to act towards the UK like a hostile state for political reasons, then the EU should also consider the consequence that the UK could do likewise.Yorkcity said:
Very true AlanAlanbrooke said:
they didnt care last year either, hence why we are where we are todayAlastairMeeks said:
The EU no longer has any reason to care about UK public opinion.Casino_Royale said:
I think they need to be careful.Pulpstar said:
Well they don't really need a deal.kle4 said:So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
May has been very reasonable today. Our national character is that we don't respond well to those being unreasonable or trying to bully us.
If the EU continues in this vein I'd expect UK public opinion to swing firmly behind May.
the didnt give a shit about greek opinion either
The UK could, in future, offer support and encouragement to other non-Eurozone states who may wish to secede rather than actively supporting the political integrity of the EU.
0 -
Leavers arguing that economics will trump politics and force the EU to do a deal mysteriously ignore the fact that politics trumped economics in the referendum.0
-
Perhaps. I stand by what I said though. What do you disagree with?MikeSmithson said:
Dream on. You are living in fantasy land.Omnium said:
We don't have a weak hand, we have a strong hand. If the world goes tits up then the UK will be the UK. The EU on the other hand is incredibly fragile. Our need for a good(ish) deal though is far greater than the need of the EU. The economics matter to us and the politics to them.murali_s said:
We have a relatively weak hand, the EU have a stronger hand. The negotiations will therefore follow accordingly. Time for people to grow up and face reality rather than post ignorant bluster or wrap themselves up in the flag.Casino_Royale said:
If the EU wishes to act towards the UK like a hostile state for political reasons, then the EU should also consider the consequence that the UK could do likewise.Yorkcity said:
Very true AlanAlanbrooke said:
they didnt care last year either, hence why we are where we are todayAlastairMeeks said:
The EU no longer has any reason to care about UK public opinion.Casino_Royale said:
I think they need to be careful.Pulpstar said:
Well they don't really need a deal.kle4 said:So, first impressions - Our letter was conciliatory because we are more keen on a deal than them, we put our cards on the table a little, and the leaked EU position shows they will play hardball.
May has been very reasonable today. Our national character is that we don't respond well to those being unreasonable or trying to bully us.
If the EU continues in this vein I'd expect UK public opinion to swing firmly behind May.
the didnt give a shit about greek opinion either
The UK could, in future, offer support and encouragement to other non-Eurozone states who may wish to secede rather than actively supporting the political integrity of the EU.0
