politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s Local By-Election Preview : Three CON defences and a
Comments
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That's nothing! I walked across the Tyne Bridge todayCarlottaVance said:
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Not the High Level Bridge? That one's got train on top!Sunil_Prasannan said:0 -
Then you'd vote to stay with us!Theuniondivvie said:
Och well, it might get some of the OO, SDL, EDL, NF, BNP, UKIP, Britain First and Tory Unionists on side.TheScreamingEagles said:This tweet contains the picture all future PB threads on Indyref2 will use
https://twitter.com/BraidenHT/status/8425038737429544960 -
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The existence of our Union rests on some simple but powerful principles: solidarität, einheit, familie.RobD said:
Ein reich, ein volk, zwei referenden?TheScreamingEagles said:This tweet contains the picture all future PB threads on Indyref2 will use
https://twitter.com/BraidenHT/status/842503873742954496
Oh look, my coat!0 -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_the_United_Nations#Current_membersRichard_Tyndall said:
I was talking about the UN definition of a country not a state. They are two different things. England is defined as a country but not a state. The UK is a state but not a country.Sunil_Prasannan said:
UN has 193 members, one of them being the UK.Richard_Tyndall said:
Because these things are legally defined. If you want the UN definition then it is an area that is subject to the independent exercise of legal jurisdiction. As I said before England and Scotland have separate legal systems. Britain does not. No one denies the United Kingdom is a state but it is not a country.Cyan said:What a lot of confusion we've got here.
Richard: you haven't explained why you think Britain isn't a country. And I'd also be interested to hear what you think it is.
Those who think Britain is a union and not a country presumably think the same about the entity known as England and Wales, in which case they'd be right, but what about other unions such as the USA? So a union can contain unions but a country can't contain countries? But an entity can be a union or federation and a country at the same time. No apologies for the absence of a thin boundary line around these notions.
I hope I'm not going to hear from anyone that Britain can't be a country because it was a Roman province.
Omnium: it's fine that you are British and you consider your country to be Great Britain, but what is the country people are thinking of who also view themselves as British and who are from Northern Ireland? It's not Great Britain.
Alistair: a country needn't have an unambiguous date of foundation. When was Germany founded? When was the precise moment before which we should not call Russia a country? It's political regimes, not countries, that have dates of foundation.
When did New Zealand become an independent country? There is no exact date.
Several of you are falling into the continuum fallacy.
And on that basis New Zealand stopped being a Dominion and became a separate country in 1947.0 -
South Heaton (Newcastle upon Tyne) result:
LAB: 46.8% (-11.8)
GRN: 27.1% (+1.7)
LDEM: 15.9% (+11.5)
UKIP: 5.4% (-1.5)
CON: 4.9% (+0.2)0 -
It'd certainly satisfy one person I can think of.SeanT said:
I have the oddest feeling that somehow we won't ever quite reach indyref2. Not Quite Getting There satisfies too many people, and annoys too few.TheScreamingEagles said:
If we do get Indyref2 I hope it does produce as many amusing things as the Waffen Yes Yes, The Yestapo, and Angry Salmond.Theuniondivvie said:
ItTheScreamingEagles said:This tweet contains the picture all future PB threads on Indyref2 will use
https://twitter.com/BraidenHT/status/842503873742954496
Och well, it might get some of the OO, SDL, EDL, NF, BNP, UKIP, Britain First and Tory Unionists on side.0 -
Made up statistics?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Labour's monopoly in Newcastle still safe.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:South Heaton (Newcastle upon Tyne) result:
LAB: 46.8% (-11.8)
GRN: 27.1% (+1.7)
LDEM: 15.9% (+11.5)
UKIP: 5.4% (-1.5)
CON: 4.9% (+0.2)0 -
He's there. At the bottom.CarlottaVance said:Salmond a bit long?
https://twitter.com/kevverage/status/8425088530319114240 -
Utterly sensational Tory surge there...AramintaMoonbeamQC said:South Heaton (Newcastle upon Tyne) result:
LAB: 46.8% (-11.8)
GRN: 27.1% (+1.7)
LDEM: 15.9% (+11.5)
UKIP: 5.4% (-1.5)
CON: 4.9% (+0.2)
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And Rod CrosbyFrancisUrquhart said:
I bet Red Ken might get a tad excitable over such a picture.TheScreamingEagles said:This tweet contains the picture all future PB threads on Indyref2 will use
twitter.com/BraidenHT/status/8425038737429544960 -
I'm about to go to bed, but to avoid future doubt, Richard Tyndall is correct.0
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PUT YOUR GLASSES ON, DEAR.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Ooft, the SCOT GOES POP blog is floating the idea of all 56 SNP MPs resigning simultaneously, and triggering by-elections. Imagine the betting opportunities 0
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"State" and "country" mean different things in different contexts.Bojabob said:
You are looking at states there, not countries. The confusion arises because most countries are also states. Exceptions include the UK and the Kingdom of the Netherlands, which are states that comprise constituent countries.Sunil_Prasannan said:
UN has 193 members, one of them being the UK.Richard_Tyndall said:
Because these things are legally defined. If you want the UN definition then it is an area that is subject to the independent exercise of legal jurisdiction. As I said before England and Scotland have separate legal systems. Britain does not. No one denies the United Kingdom is a state but it is not a country.Cyan said:What a lot of confusion we've got here.
Richard: you haven't explained why you think Britain isn't a country. And I'd also be interested to hear what you think it is.
Those who think Britain is a union and not a country presumably think the same about the entity known as England and Wales, in which case they'd be right, but what about other unions such as the USA? So a union can contain unions but a country can't contain countries? But an entity can be a union or federation and a country at the same time. No apologies for the absence of a thin boundary line around these notions.
I hope I'm not going to hear from anyone that Britain can't be a country because it was a Roman province.
Omnium: it's fine that you are British and you consider your country to be Great Britain, but what is the country people are thinking of who also view themselves as British and who are from Northern Ireland? It's not Great Britain.
Alistair: a country needn't have an unambiguous date of foundation. When was Germany founded? When was the precise moment before which we should not call Russia a country? It's political regimes, not countries, that have dates of foundation.
When did New Zealand become an independent country? There is no exact date.
Several of you are falling into the continuum fallacy.
And on that basis New Zealand stopped being a Dominion and became a separate country in 1947.0 -
Nahrcs1000 said:
Made up statistics?TheScreamingEagles said:
Trump Tower security is costing the US taxpayer $400,000 every single day
New York wants federal government to pay President-elect's security bill instead
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-elections/donald-trump-costs-more-protect-us-leader-president-history-a7456046.html0 -
This ward is full of 'young professionals' and students of 2 universities It will never vote Tory in a million years. It's almost the Shoredich of Newcastle.RobD said:
Utterly sensational Tory surge there...AramintaMoonbeamQC said:South Heaton (Newcastle upon Tyne) result:
LAB: 46.8% (-11.8)
GRN: 27.1% (+1.7)
LDEM: 15.9% (+11.5)
UKIP: 5.4% (-1.5)
CON: 4.9% (+0.2)0 -
Wee Jimmy, loves to dream.Danny565 said:Ooft, the SCOT GOES POP blog is floating the idea of all 56 SNP MPs resigning simultaneously, and triggering by-elections. Imagine the betting opportunities
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Whatta bout those Lib Dems, though? #theSurgeRobD said:
Utterly sensational Tory surge there...AramintaMoonbeamQC said:South Heaton (Newcastle upon Tyne) result:
LAB: 46.8% (-11.8)
GRN: 27.1% (+1.7)
LDEM: 15.9% (+11.5)
UKIP: 5.4% (-1.5)
CON: 4.9% (+0.2)
Heaton is full of hipsters these days, so I wouldn't expect a big uptick in the Green vote across Tyneside going forward.0 -
Saham Toney (Breckland):
CON: 48.1% (-2.7)
LDEM: 15.1% (+15.1)
IND: 14.9% (+14.9)
UKIP: 11.5% (-20.1)
LAB: 10.3% (+10.3)
No Grn as prev.0 -
"Although not sovereign states, England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland are referred to as countries, which collectively form the United Kingdom—a sovereign state which is also referred to as a country."rcs1000 said:I'm about to go to bed, but to avoid future doubt, Richard Tyndall is correct.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Country0 -
Look at that Labour surge!!!111AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Saham Toney (Breckland):
CON: 48.1% (-2.7)
LDEM: 15.1% (+15.1)
IND: 14.9% (+14.9)
UKIP: 11.5% (-20.1)
LAB: 10.3% (+10.3)
No Grn as prev.0 -
Kelly's degenerated into a dope fiend.Danny565 said:Ooft, the SCOT GOES POP blog is floating the idea of all 56 SNP MPs resigning simultaneously, and triggering by-elections. Imagine the betting opportunities
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South Heaton quite studenty - but if the young start deserting Corbyn.....AramintaMoonbeamQC said:South Heaton (Newcastle upon Tyne) result:
LAB: 46.8% (-11.8)
GRN: 27.1% (+1.7)
LDEM: 15.9% (+11.5)
UKIP: 5.4% (-1.5)
CON: 4.9% (+0.2)0 -
South Ribble Con hold
Con 359
Lab 262
LDem 1060 -
Not sure i'd be confident of them winning back every seat.Danny565 said:Ooft, the SCOT GOES POP blog is floating the idea of all 56 SNP MPs resigning simultaneously, and triggering by-elections. Imagine the betting opportunities
1/3 they'd lose at least one.
Evens they'd lose more than 3.0 -
Did the Metro from Newcastle Central to the Airport on Monday afternoonGallowgate said:
Labour's monopoly in Newcastle still safe.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:South Heaton (Newcastle upon Tyne) result:
LAB: 46.8% (-11.8)
GRN: 27.1% (+1.7)
LDEM: 15.9% (+11.5)
UKIP: 5.4% (-1.5)
CON: 4.9% (+0.2)
Then the Metro from South Gosforth to St James via the Coast on Tuesday (also later that day went to Berwick and ventured down to the Tweed beneath the Royal Border Bridge!)
Wednesday I did the remaining Metro branches from Central to South Shields and South Hylton via Sunderland, and also the mainline train from Newcastle to Sunderland.
Finally, today did Newcastle to Carlisle via the Tyne Valley (also managed to do the curve linking High Level Bridge outbound towards Carlisle).
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Lab down 9.4% in Ribble, which seems to be consistent with drops elsewhere. They'll be getting a severe doing in the locals, might get some extra popcorn in.0
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Berwickshire, Roxburgh, and Selkirk should be a nailed on Tory gain if Unionists vote tactically (and probably a gain if they don't)Pong said:
Not sure i'd be confident of them winning back every seat.Danny565 said:Ooft, the SCOT GOES POP blog is floating the idea of all 56 SNP MPs resigning simultaneously, and triggering by-elections. Imagine the betting opportunities
1/3 they'd lose at least one.
Evens they'd lose more than 3.
I did hear from someone the Tories would have won that seat at GE2015 if some Tories hadn't voted tactically for Michael Moore.0 -
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Fahrenheit 9/11 was controversial to say the leastTheScreamingEagles said:
Berwickshire, Roxburgh, and Selkirk should be a nailed on Tory gain if Unionists vote tactically (and probably a gain if they don't)Pong said:
Not sure i'd be confident of them winning back every seat.Danny565 said:Ooft, the SCOT GOES POP blog is floating the idea of all 56 SNP MPs resigning simultaneously, and triggering by-elections. Imagine the betting opportunities
1/3 they'd lose at least one.
Evens they'd lose more than 3.
I did hear from someone the Tories would have won that seat at GE2015 if some Tories hadn't voted tactically for Michael Moore.
(I'll get me coat...)0 -
Poor jeremy getting it again on QT.0
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Conservative down roughly 5% also. Both falls to be expected with a LibDem standing this time.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Lab down 9.4% in Ribble, which seems to be consistent with drops elsewhere. They'll be getting a severe doing in the locals, might get some extra popcorn in.
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Off topic, but I'd stand in a queue all day long to punch John McTernan, the clueless berk (he's currently waffling on STV).
Never has one man been more consistently wrong about politics over a longer period of time. Although betting against some of his tips has won me a few quid.0 -
I don't want Labour to do catastrophically bad in May. If they do, Corbyn might actual get the revolver out and do the honourable thing. I want to see all the gory details of a full blown general election campaign with Corbyn as Labour leader - and then Labour's evisceration.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Lab down 9.4% in Ribble, which seems to be consistent with drops elsewhere. They'll be getting a severe doing in the locals, might get some extra popcorn in.
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Lol. Cruel!Theuniondivvie said:Ooh, the Record's gone National.
https://twitter.com/Daily_Record/status/8425115379611238430 -
May's head on Salmond's body.Theuniondivvie said:Ooh, the Record's gone National.
https://twitter.com/Daily_Record/status/8425115379611238430 -
"Call me Bojabob, darling! Everybody does!"Bojabob said:
Lol. Cruel!Theuniondivvie said:Ooh, the Record's gone National.
https://twitter.com/Daily_Record/status/8425115379611238430 -
On the same theme, if the Scots currency is pegged to sterling, will it be called the 'bitty'?Theuniondivvie said:Ooh, the Record's gone National.
https://twitter.com/Daily_Record/status/8425115379611238430 -
I just don't think there's enough popcorn in Britain to see me through the utter car crash of a Corbyn 'led' election 'campaign'.Jason said:
I don't want Labour to do catastrophically bad in May. If they do, Corbyn might actual get the revolver out and do the honourable thing. I want to see all the gory details of a full blown general election campaign with Corbyn as Labour leader - and then Labour's evisceration.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Lab down 9.4% in Ribble, which seems to be consistent with drops elsewhere. They'll be getting a severe doing in the locals, might get some extra popcorn in.
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Yeah, but how did Fabricant's hair get in there?MonikerDiCanio said:
May's head on Salmond's body.Theuniondivvie said:Ooh, the Record's gone National.
https://twitter.com/Daily_Record/status/8425115379611238430 -
You are lucky. It was replacement buses, not stopping at all stations between Carlisle and Newcastle Sunday and Monday. It is a scenic trip, but try commuting on it especially on a Sunday.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Did the Metro from Newcastle Central to the Airport on Monday afternoonGallowgate said:
Labour's monopoly in Newcastle still safe.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:South Heaton (Newcastle upon Tyne) result:
LAB: 46.8% (-11.8)
GRN: 27.1% (+1.7)
LDEM: 15.9% (+11.5)
UKIP: 5.4% (-1.5)
CON: 4.9% (+0.2)
Then the Metro from South Gosforth to St James via the Coast on Tuesday (also later that day went to Berwick and ventured down to the Tweed beneath the Royal Border Bridge!)
Wednesday I did the remaining Metro branches from Central to South Shields and South Hylton via Sunderland, and also the mainline train from Newcastle to Sunderland.
Finally, today did Newcastle to Carlisle via the Tyne Valley (also managed to do the curve linking High Level Bridge outbound towards Carlisle).0 -
Decided to turn on Question Time for the first time in months. Saw Angela Eagle. Turned off.0
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Warbreck (Blackpool) result:
CON: 54.8% (+17.5)
LAB: 35.2% (+6.3)
UKIP: 5.6% (-13.4)
LDEM: 4.3% (-2.8)0 -
Cruel. Brittle Britain will be a rich vein for them over the next couple of years.Theuniondivvie said:Ooh, the Record's gone National.
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Call me oldfashioned but could Tim Martin have managed to put a shirt on before hitting our screens?0
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Hiberno?SeanT said:
A hint of desperation, as INDY disapppears today, gently over the horizon, into the 2020s.rcs1000 said:
They would lose Edinburgh West and most of the Borders for sure.Danny565 said:Ooft, the SCOT GOES POP blog is floating the idea of all 56 SNP MPs resigning simultaneously, and triggering by-elections. Imagine the betting opportunities
For many of these young Hiberno-Quebecois indy-dreamers, five years is an eternity. They will go from earnest 20-something certainty, to the property-owning bourgeois havering of the 30s, others will proceed from uncertain indy-ish middle youth, to gritty, fuck it, unionist middle age.
The New Model Army of Indyref 1 is about to be disbanded, sans success. Painful.0 -
Christ, I think that scenario might just end me.SeanT said:
I have the oddest feeling that somehow we won't ever quite reach indyref2. Not Quite Getting There satisfies too many people, and annoys too few.TheScreamingEagles said:
If we do get Indyref2 I hope it does produce as many amusing things as the Waffen Yes Yes, The Yestapo, and Angry Salmond.Theuniondivvie said:
ItTheScreamingEagles said:This tweet contains the picture all future PB threads on Indyref2 will use
https://twitter.com/BraidenHT/status/842503873742954496
Och well, it might get some of the OO, SDL, EDL, NF, BNP, UKIP, Britain First and Tory Unionists on side.
What a waste of time that would be. Presumably they'd win all or nearly all of them at least, and I guess they could talk about improved mandate and all that cobbler, but they already say they have that, so what's the point?Danny565 said:Ooft, the SCOT GOES POP blog is floating the idea of all 56 SNP MPs resigning simultaneously, and triggering by-elections. Imagine the betting opportunities
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Manchester GortonFrancisUrquhart said:
Is nowhere safe for Corbyn's Labour Party, other than Islington?CarlottaVance said:0 -
The Kims are effectively God Kings given how they are portrayed.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Not necessarily - the North Koreans are pretty patrioticOllyT said:
So as I am an atheist and republican I guess that rules me out of the patriotism stakes!Charles said:
Traditionally the monarchy comes fairly far down the order of loyaltyOllyT said:
Out of interest do you consider it possible to be a republican and a patriot in this country.Mortimer said:
I'd agree with that. Lefty activists often seem far less patriotic than the average Labour voter.TwistedFireStopper said:
Nah, I ain't buying that. It's only a certain type of leftie that thinks like that. The Labour voters I know are all as patriotic as I am, no matter what culture they come from.HYUFD said:
In the global league table of leftie hatred of nations the UK (or more particularly England) takes a bronze and comes a strong third behind gold medallist the USA and Israel with silver. That of course explains their hatred of Trump and Brexit UK and their love of Scottish nationalism and Palestinian self determinationMortimer said:In case anyone is still wondering why the left is unpopular in England, a peek at the last thread will confirm that many on the left don't seem that fond of England...
Family, God, Queen and Country0 -
Jacob Rees Mogg's obscure historical references thrown in at completely random intervals always make me LOL.0
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Hearts were always rubbishTheuniondivvie said:
Hiberno?SeanT said:
A hint of desperation, as INDY disapppears today, gently over the horizon, into the 2020s.rcs1000 said:
They would lose Edinburgh West and most of the Borders for sure.Danny565 said:Ooft, the SCOT GOES POP blog is floating the idea of all 56 SNP MPs resigning simultaneously, and triggering by-elections. Imagine the betting opportunities
For many of these young Hiberno-Quebecois indy-dreamers, five years is an eternity. They will go from earnest 20-something certainty, to the property-owning bourgeois havering of the 30s, others will proceed from uncertain indy-ish middle youth, to gritty, fuck it, unionist middle age.
The New Model Army of Indyref 1 is about to be disbanded, sans success. Painful. 0 -
The British people said NO back in Junewilliamglenn said:
Cruel. Brittle Britain will be a rich vein for them over the next couple of years.Theuniondivvie said:Ooh, the Record's gone National.
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Shame James Kelly doesn't post any more. A class act. Gave you more than a run for your money at times Sean.SeanT said:
I believe James is of Irish-Canadian extraction. But do correct me if I'm wrong. I know racial definition and ensuing Scottish purity is an obsession with you guys, and I bow to your superior racialistic knowledge.Theuniondivvie said:
Hiberno?SeanT said:
A hint of desperation, as INDY disapppears today, gently over the horizon, into the 2020s.rcs1000 said:
They would lose Edinburgh West and most of the Borders for sure.Danny565 said:Ooft, the SCOT GOES POP blog is floating the idea of all 56 SNP MPs resigning simultaneously, and triggering by-elections. Imagine the betting opportunities
For many of these young Hiberno-Quebecois indy-dreamers, five years is an eternity. They will go from earnest 20-something certainty, to the property-owning bourgeois havering of the 30s, others will proceed from uncertain indy-ish middle youth, to gritty, fuck it, unionist middle age.
The New Model Army of Indyref 1 is about to be disbanded, sans success. Painful.0 -
The Daily Record's circulation has halved in the past 5 years. I doubt it'll survive the next couple of years.williamglenn said:
Cruel. Brittle Britain will be a rich vein for them over the next couple of years.Theuniondivvie said:Ooh, the Record's gone National.
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We can hope. I always look for the pitfalls. Bear in mind SIndy enthusiasts see a good chance to make a move now (or the near future), but many of them have been at this for decades, growing ever more passionate not less, and the overall numbers of them has increased over that time. Maybe they will peter out a little if things get pushed back 4-5 years (though they will remain dominant), but the near religious fervour of the core which sees this as a cause over centuries, will adapt to the changed circumstance if they do have to wait more than they'd like.SeanT said:
A hint of desperation, as INDY disapppears today, gently over the horizon, into the 2020s.rcs1000 said:
They would lose Edinburgh West and most of the Borders for sure.Danny565 said:Ooft, the SCOT GOES POP blog is floating the idea of all 56 SNP MPs resigning simultaneously, and triggering by-elections. Imagine the betting opportunities
For many of these young Hiberno-Quebecois indy-dreamers, five years is an eternity. They will go from earnest 20-something certainty, to the property-owning bourgeois havering of the 30s, others will proceed from uncertain indy-ish middle youth, to gritty, fuck it, unionist middle age.
The New Model Army of Indyref 1 is about to be disbanded, sans success. Painful.0 -
Monday they had the rail strike didn't they? Yes, a scenic ride, didn't know the Tyne was so wide for such a distance. Also today, walked across the Tyne Bridgedixiedean said:
You are lucky. It was replacement buses, not stopping at all stations between Carlisle and Newcastle Sunday and Monday. It is a scenic trip, but try commuting on it especially on a Sunday.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Did the Metro from Newcastle Central to the Airport on Monday afternoonGallowgate said:
Labour's monopoly in Newcastle still safe.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:South Heaton (Newcastle upon Tyne) result:
LAB: 46.8% (-11.8)
GRN: 27.1% (+1.7)
LDEM: 15.9% (+11.5)
UKIP: 5.4% (-1.5)
CON: 4.9% (+0.2)
Then the Metro from South Gosforth to St James via the Coast on Tuesday (also later that day went to Berwick and ventured down to the Tweed beneath the Royal Border Bridge!)
Wednesday I did the remaining Metro branches from Central to South Shields and South Hylton via Sunderland, and also the mainline train from Newcastle to Sunderland.
Finally, today did Newcastle to Carlisle via the Tyne Valley (also managed to do the curve linking High Level Bridge outbound towards Carlisle). 0 -
TORY SURGE!AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Warbreck (Blackpool) result:
CON: 54.8% (+17.5)
LAB: 35.2% (+6.3)
UKIP: 5.6% (-13.4)
LDEM: 4.3% (-2.8)0 -
I believe he had a vote in the US election, no idea about the rest. I'd imagine the actual earnest 20-something, Hiberno-Quebecois indy-dreamer section of the Scottish electorate is pretty minimal, but hey, it's your flabby analogy, enjoy.SeanT said:
I believe James is of Irish-Canadian extraction. But do correct me if I'm wrong. I know racial definition and ensuing Scottish purity is an obsession with you guys, and I bow to your superior racialistic knowledge.Theuniondivvie said:
Hiberno?SeanT said:
A hint of desperation, as INDY disapppears today, gently over the horizon, into the 2020s.rcs1000 said:
They would lose Edinburgh West and most of the Borders for sure.Danny565 said:Ooft, the SCOT GOES POP blog is floating the idea of all 56 SNP MPs resigning simultaneously, and triggering by-elections. Imagine the betting opportunities
For many of these young Hiberno-Quebecois indy-dreamers, five years is an eternity. They will go from earnest 20-something certainty, to the property-owning bourgeois havering of the 30s, others will proceed from uncertain indy-ish middle youth, to gritty, fuck it, unionist middle age.
The New Model Army of Indyref 1 is about to be disbanded, sans success. Painful.0 -
Despite the impression some are giving on here , the Labour vote is not collapsing overall in local elections .
All elections so far in March
Con 38.0% plus 0.3%
Lab 28.6% minus 1.7%
LDem 14.8% plus 7.8%
UKIP 9.5% minus 2.0%
Green 4.1% minus 2.5%
Others 5.0% minus 2.0%0 -
Meanwhile, the subplot of tonight's byelections is a set of rather mediocre results for the Lib Dems (by their recent high standards)0
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It's well shot and well acted, but is deliberately slow paced, overly maudlin, and its twists are not as clever as it thinks they are if you can think about it for more than 30 seconds.SeanT said:god I'm drunk and tired after writing an entire chapter of a thriller, having TOO MUCH SEX last night, and now watching the enervating tedium of ARRIVAL. I had so much sex I have crocked my knee
Clearly it's too late to save my knee, or my liver, but can someone tell me whether it's worth pursuing ARRIVAL?
It just feels like some Portuguese speaking woman talking in the rain to allegorical migrants, right now. YAWNFEST
Worth watching once, but perhaps not in your current state?0 -
It sounds like the sort of film I would loathe. I will name a note to avoid it.SeanT said:god I'm drunk and tired after writing an entire chapter of a thriller, having TOO MUCH SEX last night, and now watching the enervating tedium of ARRIVAL. I had so much sex I have crocked my knee
Clearly it's too late to save my knee, or my liver, but can someone tell me whether it's worth pursuing ARRIVAL?
It just feels like some Portuguese speaking woman talking in the rain to allegorical migrants, right now. YAWNFEST
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Indeed. Just when predicting massive swings for them as a matter of course was seeming reasonable. Modest gains really might be the outcome in May.Danny565 said:Meanwhile, the subplot of tonight's byelections is a set of rather mediocre results for the Lib Dems (by their recent high standards)
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Sunday buses so "trains were not out of position for a strike day". Did you see the Millenium (can never spell that) Bridge raised? It is quite impressive!Sunil_Prasannan said:
Monday they had the rail strike didn't they? Yes, a scenic ride, didn't know the Tyne was so wide for such a distance. Also today, walked across the Tyne Bridgedixiedean said:
You are lucky. It was replacement buses, not stopping at all stations between Carlisle and Newcastle Sunday and Monday. It is a scenic trip, but try commuting on it especially on a Sunday.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Did the Metro from Newcastle Central to the Airport on Monday afternoonGallowgate said:
Labour's monopoly in Newcastle still safe.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:South Heaton (Newcastle upon Tyne) result:
LAB: 46.8% (-11.8)
GRN: 27.1% (+1.7)
LDEM: 15.9% (+11.5)
UKIP: 5.4% (-1.5)
CON: 4.9% (+0.2)
Then the Metro from South Gosforth to St James via the Coast on Tuesday (also later that day went to Berwick and ventured down to the Tweed beneath the Royal Border Bridge!)
Wednesday I did the remaining Metro branches from Central to South Shields and South Hylton via Sunderland, and also the mainline train from Newcastle to Sunderland.
Finally, today did Newcastle to Carlisle via the Tyne Valley (also managed to do the curve linking High Level Bridge outbound towards Carlisle).0 -
Keep at it- in both senses.SeanT said:god I'm drunk and tired after writing an entire chapter of a thriller, having TOO MUCH SEX last night, and now watching the enervating tedium of ARRIVAL. I had so much sex I have crocked my knee
Clearly it's too late to save my knee, or my liver, but can someone tell me whether it's worth pursuing ARRIVAL?
It just feels like some Portuguese speaking woman talking in the rain to allegorical migrants, right now. YAWNFEST0 -
Point taken, but neither is the Tory vote from those figures, and I'm sure I've seem people make that claim given their losses in the local by-elections.MarkSenior said:Despite the impression some are giving on here , the Labour vote is not collapsing overall in local elections .
All elections so far in March
Con 38.0% plus 0.3%
Lab 28.6% minus 1.7%
LDem 14.8% plus 7.8%
UKIP 9.5% minus 2.0%
Green 4.1% minus 2.5%
Others 5.0% minus 2.0%0 -
That's a bloody good result for the Tories! UKIP crashing and burning, their vote going back to former homes? (And awful for the LibDems.)AramintaMoonbeamQC said:Warbreck (Blackpool) result:
CON: 54.8% (+17.5)
LAB: 35.2% (+6.3)
UKIP: 5.6% (-13.4)
LDEM: 4.3% (-2.8)0 -
This would be a lot more fun, interesting and challenging were James here to counter your blows, Sean.SeanT said:
Sure. But I think Irish Catholic Canadianism is his personal ID. Hence his Anglophobia, deriving from a post-imperial inferiority complex, so typical of the more driven CyberNats.Theuniondivvie said:
I know he had a vote in the US election, no idea about the rest. I'd imagine the actual earnest 20-something, Hiberno-Quebecois indy-dreamer section of the Scottish electorate is pretty minimal, but hey, it's your flabby analogy, enjoy.SeanT said:
I believe James is of Irish-Canadian extraction. But do correct me if I'm wrong. I know racial definition and ensuing Scottish purity is an obsession with you guys, and I bow to your superior racialistic knowledge.Theuniondivvie said:
Hiberno?SeanT said:
A hint of desperation, as INDY disapppears today, gently over the horizon, into the 2020s.rcs1000 said:
They would lose Edinburgh West and most of the Borders for sure.Danny565 said:Ooft, the SCOT GOES POP blog is floating the idea of all 56 SNP MPs resigning simultaneously, and triggering by-elections. Imagine the betting opportunities
For many of these young Hiberno-Quebecois indy-dreamers, five years is an eternity. They will go from earnest 20-something certainty, to the property-owning bourgeois havering of the 30s, others will proceed from uncertain indy-ish middle youth, to gritty, fuck it, unionist middle age.
The New Model Army of Indyref 1 is about to be disbanded, sans success. Painful.0 -
The mystery is as to why Kelly's Canadian and American ancestors chose to leave the new world and settle in Cumbernauld ( a brutal shithole even by central belt standards ). That would embitter anyone.SeanT said:
Sure. But I think Irish Catholic Canadianism is his personal ID. Hence his Anglophobia, deriving from a post-imperial inferiority complex, so typical of the more driven CyberNats.Theuniondivvie said:
I know he had a vote in the US election, no idea about the rest. I'd imagine the actual earnest 20-something, Hiberno-Quebecois indy-dreamer section of the Scottish electorate is pretty minimal, but hey, it's your flabby analogy, enjoy.SeanT said:
I believe James is of Irish-Canadian extraction. But do correct me if I'm wrong. I know racial definition and ensuing Scottish purity is an obsession with you guys, and I bow to your superior racialistic knowledge.Theuniondivvie said:
Hiberno?SeanT said:
A hint of desperation, as INDY disapppears today, gently over the horizon, into the 2020s.rcs1000 said:
They would lose Edinburgh West and most of the Borders for sure.Danny565 said:Ooft, the SCOT GOES POP blog is floating the idea of all 56 SNP MPs resigning simultaneously, and triggering by-elections. Imagine the betting opportunities
For many of these young Hiberno-Quebecois indy-dreamers, five years is an eternity. They will go from earnest 20-something certainty, to the property-owning bourgeois havering of the 30s, others will proceed from uncertain indy-ish middle youth, to gritty, fuck it, unionist middle age.
The New Model Army of Indyref 1 is about to be disbanded, sans success. Painful.0 -
Sean - fair enough. I don't know why he left, as it happens.SeanT said:
He did. I enjoyed our debates. He's an acute observer. I think he's a very smart guy. And I have personally intervened to help him on Twitter when he was being abused and doxxed by some nasty feminist weirdos.Bojabob said:
Shame James Kelly doesn't post any more. A class act. Gave you more than a run for your money at times Sean.SeanT said:
I believe James is of Irish-Canadian extraction. But do correct me if I'm wrong. I know racial definition and ensuing Scottish purity is an obsession with you guys, and I bow to your superior racialistic knowledge.Theuniondivvie said:
Hiberno?SeanT said:
A hint of desperation, as INDY disapppears today, gently over the horizon, into the 2020s.rcs1000 said:
They would lose Edinburgh West and most of the Borders for sure.Danny565 said:Ooft, the SCOT GOES POP blog is floating the idea of all 56 SNP MPs resigning simultaneously, and triggering by-elections. Imagine the betting opportunities
For many of these young Hiberno-Quebecois indy-dreamers, five years is an eternity. They will go from earnest 20-something certainty, to the property-owning bourgeois havering of the 30s, others will proceed from uncertain indy-ish middle youth, to gritty, fuck it, unionist middle age.
The New Model Army of Indyref 1 is about to be disbanded, sans success. Painful.0 -
An....unconventional start to This Week.0
-
Banned.Bojabob said:
Sean - fair enough. I don't know why he left, as it happens.SeanT said:
He did. I enjoyed our debates. He's an acute observer. I think he's a very smart guy. And I have personally intervened to help him on Twitter when he was being abused and doxxed by some nasty feminist weirdos.Bojabob said:
Shame James Kelly doesn't post any more. A class act. Gave you more than a run for your money at times Sean.SeanT said:
I believe James is of Irish-Canadian extraction. But do correct me if I'm wrong. I know racial definition and ensuing Scottish purity is an obsession with you guys, and I bow to your superior racialistic knowledge.Theuniondivvie said:
Hiberno?SeanT said:
A hint of desperation, as INDY disapppears today, gently over the horizon, into the 2020s.rcs1000 said:
They would lose Edinburgh West and most of the Borders for sure.Danny565 said:Ooft, the SCOT GOES POP blog is floating the idea of all 56 SNP MPs resigning simultaneously, and triggering by-elections. Imagine the betting opportunities
For many of these young Hiberno-Quebecois indy-dreamers, five years is an eternity. They will go from earnest 20-something certainty, to the property-owning bourgeois havering of the 30s, others will proceed from uncertain indy-ish middle youth, to gritty, fuck it, unionist middle age.
The New Model Army of Indyref 1 is about to be disbanded, sans success. Painful.0 -
The Libdems did worse than your predicted result in all four contests, dramatically so in Blackpool.0
-
So much for Britain Elects' tweet that the Greens were surging...maybe they should stick to reporting (which they do well)...AramintaMoonbeamQC said:South Heaton (Newcastle upon Tyne) result:
LAB: 46.8% (-11.8)
GRN: 27.1% (+1.7)
LDEM: 15.9% (+11.5)
UKIP: 5.4% (-1.5)
CON: 4.9% (+0.2)0 -
[Princess Liz Kendall is escorted by Lord Livingstone into an audience with Grand Moff Corbyn]RobD said:
Princess Liz: Governor Corbyn, I should have expected to find you holding Livingstone's leash. I recognized your foul stench when I was brought onboard.
Grand Moff Corbyn: Charming to the last. You don't know how hard I found it, signing the order to terminate your political career.
Princess Liz: [sarcastically] I'm surprised you had the courage to take the responsibility yourself.
Grand Moff Corbyn: Princess Liz, before your deselection, I would like to invite you to a ceremony that will make this progressive party operational. No Labour Stronghold will dare oppose the Corbynistas now.
Princess Liz: The more you tighten your grip, Corbyn, the more safe seats will slip through your fingers.
Grand Moff Corbyn: Not after we demonstrate the power of this policy. In a way, you have determined the choice of the constituency that is to be targeted first. Since you are reluctant to provide us with the location of the Rebel base, I have chosen to test our activists' destructive power on your home planet of Leicester.
Princess Liz: [shocked] No! Leicester is peaceful, we have no weapons. You can't possibly—
Grand Moff Corbyn: You would prefer another target, a military target? Then name the system! [stepping closer to Liz and pinning her against Darth Livingstone] I grow tired of asking this, so it will be the last time. Where is the Rebel base?
Princess Liz: [looks at view-screen showing Leicester for a moment, then, resigned] Derby. They're all on Derby.
Grand Moff Corbyn: There you see, Lord Livingstone? She can be reasonable. Proceed with the operation. You may fire when ready.
Princess Liz: [indignant] What?!
Grand Moff Corbyn: You're far too trusting. Derby is too remote to make an effective demonstration, but don't worry. We will deal with your rebel friends soon enough!
[Liz watches helplessly as pro-Corbyn activists descend on Leicester]0 -
To be fair, they did tweet an apology shortly after the result was declared...NickPalmer said:
So much for Britain Elects' tweet that the Greens were surging...maybe they should stick to reporting (which they do well)...AramintaMoonbeamQC said:South Heaton (Newcastle upon Tyne) result:
LAB: 46.8% (-11.8)
GRN: 27.1% (+1.7)
LDEM: 15.9% (+11.5)
UKIP: 5.4% (-1.5)
CON: 4.9% (+0.2)0 -
If I've learned anything about political terminology, it's that 'surging' is used to describe any positive increase.NickPalmer said:
So much for Britain Elects' tweet that the Greens were surging...maybe they should stick to reporting (which they do well)...AramintaMoonbeamQC said:South Heaton (Newcastle upon Tyne) result:
LAB: 46.8% (-11.8)
GRN: 27.1% (+1.7)
LDEM: 15.9% (+11.5)
UKIP: 5.4% (-1.5)
CON: 4.9% (+0.2)0 -
People like Kendall are getting very prematurely excited by hailing Macron as the new saviour of politics, when he's currently not even polling at UK Labour's dire levels.0
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Liz KendallDanny565 said:An....unconventional start to This Week.
Brilliant. You should stick to these spoofs and save your energy on the endless repetition of referendum results. Good night.Sunil_Prasannan said:
[Princess Liz Kendall is escorted by Lord Livingstone into an audience with Grand Moff Corbyn]RobD said:
Princess Liz: Governor Corbyn, I should have expected to find you holding Livingstone's leash. I recognized your foul stench when I was brought onboard.
Grand Moff Corbyn: Charming to the last. You don't know how hard I found it, signing the order to terminate your political career.
Princess Liz: [sarcastically] I'm surprised you had the courage to take the responsibility yourself.
Grand Moff Corbyn: Princess Liz, before your deselection, I would like to invite you to a ceremony that will make this progressive party operational. No Labour Stronghold will dare oppose the Corbynistas now.
Princess Liz: The more you tighten your grip, Corbyn, the more safe seats will slip through your fingers.
Grand Moff Corbyn: Not after we demonstrate the power of this policy. In a way, you have determined the choice of the constituency that is to be targeted first. Since you are reluctant to provide us with the location of the Rebel base, I have chosen to test our activists' destructive power on your home planet of Leicester.
Princess Liz: [shocked] No! Leicester is peaceful, we have no weapons. You can't possibly—
Grand Moff Corbyn: You would prefer another target, a military target? Then name the system! [stepping closer to Liz and pinning her against Darth Livingstone] I grow tired of asking this, so it will be the last time. Where is the Rebel base?
Princess Liz: [looks at view-screen showing Leicester for a moment, then, resigned] Derby. They're all on Derby.
Grand Moff Corbyn: There you see, Lord Livingstone? She can be reasonable. Proceed with the operation. You may fire when ready.
Princess Liz: [indignant] What?!
Grand Moff Corbyn: You're far too trusting. Derby is too remote to make an effective demonstration, but don't worry. We will deal with your rebel friends soon enough!
[Liz watches helplessly as pro-Corbyn activists descend on Leicester]0 -
No, sadly, it remained in the "down" position this whole week, or at least the last three evenings.dixiedean said:
Sunday buses so "trains were not out of position for a strike day". Did you see the Millenium (can never spell that) Bridge raised? It is quite impressive!Sunil_Prasannan said:
Monday they had the rail strike didn't they? Yes, a scenic ride, didn't know the Tyne was so wide for such a distance. Also today, walked across the Tyne Bridgedixiedean said:
You are lucky. It was replacement buses, not stopping at all stations between Carlisle and Newcastle Sunday and Monday. It is a scenic trip, but try commuting on it especially on a Sunday.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Did the Metro from Newcastle Central to the Airport on Monday afternoonGallowgate said:
Labour's monopoly in Newcastle still safe.AramintaMoonbeamQC said:South Heaton (Newcastle upon Tyne) result:
LAB: 46.8% (-11.8)
GRN: 27.1% (+1.7)
LDEM: 15.9% (+11.5)
UKIP: 5.4% (-1.5)
CON: 4.9% (+0.2)
Then the Metro from South Gosforth to St James via the Coast on Tuesday (also later that day went to Berwick and ventured down to the Tweed beneath the Royal Border Bridge!)
Wednesday I did the remaining Metro branches from Central to South Shields and South Hylton via Sunderland, and also the mainline train from Newcastle to Sunderland.
Finally, today did Newcastle to Carlisle via the Tyne Valley (also managed to do the curve linking High Level Bridge outbound towards Carlisle).0 -
Though I doubt Corbyn would get anyway near Macron's current level of runoff polling in a runoff v May or even Farage or NuttallDanny565 said:People like Kendall are getting very prematurely excited by hailing Macron as the new saviour of politics, when he's currently not even polling at UK Labour's dire levels.
0 -
Got the ban hammer. If I remember correctly, he has made all sorts of claims on his own blog about this site and OGH, plus a load of warnings about behaviour.Bojabob said:
Sean - fair enough. I don't know why he left, as it happens.SeanT said:
He did. I enjoyed our debates. He's an acute observer. I think he's a very smart guy. And I have personally intervened to help him on Twitter when he was being abused and doxxed by some nasty feminist weirdos.Bojabob said:
Shame James Kelly doesn't post any more. A class act. Gave you more than a run for your money at times Sean.SeanT said:
I believe James is of Irish-Canadian extraction. But do correct me if I'm wrong. I know racial definition and ensuing Scottish purity is an obsession with you guys, and I bow to your superior racialistic knowledge.Theuniondivvie said:
Hiberno?SeanT said:
A hint of desperation, as INDY disapppears today, gently over the horizon, into the 2020s.rcs1000 said:
They would lose Edinburgh West and most of the Borders for sure.Danny565 said:Ooft, the SCOT GOES POP blog is floating the idea of all 56 SNP MPs resigning simultaneously, and triggering by-elections. Imagine the betting opportunities
For many of these young Hiberno-Quebecois indy-dreamers, five years is an eternity. They will go from earnest 20-something certainty, to the property-owning bourgeois havering of the 30s, others will proceed from uncertain indy-ish middle youth, to gritty, fuck it, unionist middle age.
The New Model Army of Indyref 1 is about to be disbanded, sans success. Painful.
The credibility of the Political Betting website hits a new low - because of hypocrisy as much as inaccuracy
http://scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk/2014/12/the-credibility-of-political-betting.html
Although written post-ban, it really just a continuation of a long running battle with OGH.0 -
shocking to see such views on pb.kle4 said:
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/liz-kendall-posed-tank-now-80086140 -
Result of the Saham Toney By-Election: Conservative 48.1%, Lib Dem 15.1%, Independent 14.9%, UKIP 11.5%, Labour 10.3%. Slightly better for Conservative and rather worse for Lib Dem than predicted. Turnout was 18.2%.0
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The Mirror know a thing or two about fake military photo shoots...Scrapheap_as_was said:
shocking to see such views on pb.kle4 said:
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/liz-kendall-posed-tank-now-80086140 -
No. Tedium continues with boring, predictable 'surprise' ending.SeanT said:god I'm drunk and tired after writing an entire chapter of a thriller, having TOO MUCH SEX last night, and now watching the enervating tedium of ARRIVAL. I had so much sex I have crocked my knee
Clearly it's too late to save my knee, or my liver, but can someone tell me whether it's worth pursuing ARRIVAL?
It just feels like some Portuguese speaking woman talking in the rain to allegorical migrants, right now. YAWNFEST0 -
MTimT said:
No. Tedium continues with boring, predictable 'surprise' ending.SeanT said:god I'm drunk and tired after writing an entire chapter of a thriller, having TOO MUCH SEX last night, and now watching the enervating tedium of ARRIVAL. I had so much sex I have crocked my knee
Clearly it's too late to save my knee, or my liver, but can someone tell me whether it's worth pursuing ARRIVAL?
It just feels like some Portuguese speaking woman talking in the rain to allegorical migrants, right now. YAWNFEST
Arrival is a great film. For the thinking viewer. Best watched sober, however.
0 -
So I see the omNICshambles budget continues to dominate the front pages...0
-
Yes, if you didn't follow the last few minutes you'd miss the whole point!IanB2 said:MTimT said:
No. Tedium continues with boring, predictable 'surprise' ending.SeanT said:god I'm drunk and tired after writing an entire chapter of a thriller, having TOO MUCH SEX last night, and now watching the enervating tedium of ARRIVAL. I had so much sex I have crocked my knee
Clearly it's too late to save my knee, or my liver, but can someone tell me whether it's worth pursuing ARRIVAL?
It just feels like some Portuguese speaking woman talking in the rain to allegorical migrants, right now. YAWNFEST
Arrival is a great film. For the thinking viewer. Best watched sober, however.0 -
Pulleease. The last few minutes were telegraphed so heavily you'd have to be a dullard not to have seen it coming from a mile away.CarlottaVance said:
Yes, if you didn't follow the last few minutes you'd miss the whole point!IanB2 said:MTimT said:
No. Tedium continues with boring, predictable 'surprise' ending.SeanT said:god I'm drunk and tired after writing an entire chapter of a thriller, having TOO MUCH SEX last night, and now watching the enervating tedium of ARRIVAL. I had so much sex I have crocked my knee
Clearly it's too late to save my knee, or my liver, but can someone tell me whether it's worth pursuing ARRIVAL?
It just feels like some Portuguese speaking woman talking in the rain to allegorical migrants, right now. YAWNFEST
Arrival is a great film. For the thinking viewer. Best watched sober, however.
0
