politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Theresa May should not be allowed to create any new peers unti

justin124 said:

Sandpit said:

justin124 said:

Sandpit said:

justin124 said:

Sandpit said:

nunu said:

RobD said:

Pulpstar said:

RobD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

RobD said:

Ishmael_Z said:

I am not clear who is going to do the not allowing. The obiter dicta of OGH are of considerable persuasive authority, but not binding on anybody.

If she does do this it will take the upper house close to or over the 1,000 member barrier, which must surely to god trigger a proper reform.

Are there reports that she is thinking about appointing 200 new peers?

If the HOL's pings the bill back again do not be surprised

I think she would call an election rather than appoint new peers if that happened.

She can't. FTPA.

Sorry, "call for". Agreed it is far from certain she would have the numbers to do that in the Commons without the farcical situation of Tory MPs voting for no confidence in a Tory government. Have I mentioned how much I don't like the FTPA...

even with that farcical situation she would still crush corbyn tho so whats the problem.

I think Mrs May should lay the motion that Parliament be dissolved for an election on May 4th - just to watch the complete farce that would be the Opposition voting against it!

They would just abstain.

Yes, for this particular vote an abstention is a vote against. They'd take the day off and moan about the Tories wasting valuable Parliamentary time with a vanity project - or some such flowery language as to why they don't want to let the people have their say. Could be close if the SNP were in favour of the election though, a couple of dozen Lab 'rebels' could see the motion pass.

Such rebels would be effectively deselected by being denied NEC endorsement.

Wouldn't that just make it even funnier (or more farcical, depending on your point of view)?

Imagine the conversation: "Sorry, we are suspending you for voting to hold an election". It would have the potential to cause big splits, with rejected MPs standing as incumbent independents, possibly turning safe seats into marginals.

But that would not be the political reality. They would almost certainly end up being expelled for voting for an election at a time when Labour faced being massacred.

Smallstraws talking about political reality is hilarious.

Pulpstar said:

TheKrakenAwakes said:

Pulpstar said:

RobD said:

AndyJS said:

FPT:

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

Actual vote totals I can see being something like :

Conservative 45%
Lib Dems 24%
Labour 15%
UKIP 9%
Greens 2%

I would be staggered if the LDs did that well.

I suppose they might have a chance of hitting 24% in the English shire counties, but the actual vote shares will include local elections in Scotland and Wales and I can't see the LDs doing particularly well there.

Isn't the perceived wisdom that the Tories would lose seats/councils at the upcoming locals? with a vote share of 45% that would be quite hard!

I can't see the Tories losing anything in England. These elections are the Brexitshire heartlands.

Don't you believe it - the funding cuts to councils are going to hit them hard...Lib Dems will do well in their areas but not so sure about Labour areas

I'd hope that'd resonate more than it probably will do.

Maybe, but I live in rural Dorset and the Tories have cut subsidies for buses in the county from by 90% and increased student bus fees by 250%. That coupled with closures of community hospitals and school cuts throughout the county will impact on their vote.It's also clear that Remainers are far more likely to vote to kick the Tories.

TheKrakenAwakes said:

Pulpstar said:

TheKrakenAwakes said:

Pulpstar said:

RobD said:

AndyJS said:

FPT:

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

Actual vote totals I can see being something like :

Conservative 45%
Lib Dems 24%
Labour 15%
UKIP 9%
Greens 2%

I would be staggered if the LDs did that well.

I suppose they might have a chance of hitting 24% in the English shire counties, but the actual vote shares will include local elections in Scotland and Wales and I can't see the LDs doing particularly well there.

Isn't the perceived wisdom that the Tories would lose seats/councils at the upcoming locals? with a vote share of 45% that would be quite hard!

I can't see the Tories losing anything in England. These elections are the Brexitshire heartlands.

Don't you believe it - the funding cuts to councils are going to hit them hard...Lib Dems will do well in their areas but not so sure about Labour areas

I'd hope that'd resonate more than it probably will do.

Maybe, but I live in rural Dorset and the Tories have cut subsidies for buses in the county from by 90% and increased student bus fees by 250%. That coupled with closures of community hospitals and school cuts throughout the county will impact on their vote.It's also clear that Remainers are far more likely to vote to kick the Tories.

Go out and meet your fellow rural Dorseters. You'll find they'll largely be voting Tory.

I am Dorset born and bred. This county is getting more and more true blue.

RobD said:

AndyJS said:

RobD said:

AndyJS said:

FPT:

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

Actual vote totals I can see being something like :

Conservative 45%
Lib Dems 24%
Labour 15%
UKIP 9%
Greens 2%

I would be staggered if the LDs did that well.

I suppose they might have a chance of hitting 24% in the English shire counties, but the actual vote shares will include local elections in Scotland and Wales and I can't see the LDs doing particularly well there.

Isn't the perceived wisdom that the Tories would lose seats/councils at the upcoming locals? with a vote share of 45% that would be quite hard!

Their projected share in 2013 was just 29% so you'd expect them to gain seats this time I think. Not sure who thought they'd lose them.

I think MarkSenior's head would explode...

Try not to confuse actual vote share with NEV projected vote share . The actual Conservative vote share in 2013 was nearer 40% ( there were no local elections in Scotland and only Ynys Mon in Wales.
FWIW I have said the Conservatives will gain seats in Scotland and a few in Wales but will be broadly neutral in England

TheScreamingEagles said:

matt said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Paging alumni of Cowley Tech

More proof, if proof were needed, that Oxford University is a complete dump.

Three members of the Unite union with close links to Len McCluskey and Jeremy Corbyn “ran rings around the room” at a Labour National Executive Committee hearing into claims of antisemitism and bullying at Oxford University’s Labour Club.

https://www.thejc.com/news/news-features/unions-were-behind-oxford-probe-cover-up-1.434079

People over 23 getting excited about where they went to college need to closely examine their lives....

It is an important story about current politics given influence of Len McCluskey on Jeremy Corbyn.

If your comment was actually about the Labour Party why did you take the time to smear the country's oldest university with the country's oldest hate crime? I only ask because you paged me (inter alia).

I'm afraid you needed to sign it Senex if you wanted this to become part of the constitution, Mike.

Mortimer said:

TheKrakenAwakes said:

Pulpstar said:

TheKrakenAwakes said:

Pulpstar said:

RobD said:

AndyJS said:

FPT:

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

Actual vote totals I can see being something like :

Conservative 45%
Lib Dems 24%
Labour 15%
UKIP 9%
Greens 2%

I would be staggered if the LDs did that well.

I suppose they might have a chance of hitting 24% in the English shire counties, but the actual vote shares will include local elections in Scotland and Wales and I can't see the LDs doing particularly well there.

Isn't the perceived wisdom that the Tories would lose seats/councils at the upcoming locals? with a vote share of 45% that would be quite hard!

I can't see the Tories losing anything in England. These elections are the Brexitshire heartlands.

Don't you believe it - the funding cuts to councils are going to hit them hard...Lib Dems will do well in their areas but not so sure about Labour areas

I'd hope that'd resonate more than it probably will do.

Maybe, but I live in rural Dorset and the Tories have cut subsidies for buses in the county from by 90% and increased student bus fees by 250%. That coupled with closures of community hospitals and school cuts throughout the county will impact on their vote.It's also clear that Remainers are far more likely to vote to kick the Tories.

Go out and meet your fellow rural Dorseters. You'll find they'll largely be voting Tory.

I am Dorset born and bred. This county is getting more and more true blue.

I'm out there every night on the door steps and you are so wrong. When the Tories can't hang on to Sherborne Rural and LOSE a ward to Lib Dem who polls over 70% of the vote then something is afoot.

Toms said:

Seriously folks, bugger the class system.

...before it buggers you.

Theuniondivvie said:

Toms said:

Seriously folks, bugger the class system.

...before it buggers you.

Too late!

Mortimer said:

TheKrakenAwakes said:

Mortimer said:

TheKrakenAwakes said:

Pulpstar said:

TheKrakenAwakes said:

Pulpstar said:

RobD said:

AndyJS said:

FPT:

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

Actual vote totals I can see being something like :

Conservative 45%
Lib Dems 24%
Labour 15%
UKIP 9%
Greens 2%

I would be staggered if the LDs did that well.

I suppose they might have a chance of hitting 24% in the English shire counties, but the actual vote shares will include local elections in Scotland and Wales and I can't see the LDs doing particularly well there.

Isn't the perceived wisdom that the Tories would lose seats/councils at the upcoming locals? with a vote share of 45% that would be quite hard!

I can't see the Tories losing anything in England. These elections are the Brexitshire heartlands.

Don't you believe it - the funding cuts to councils are going to hit them hard...Lib Dems will do well in their areas but not so sure about Labour areas

I'd hope that'd resonate more than it probably will do.

Maybe, but I live in rural Dorset and the Tories have cut subsidies for buses in the county from by 90% and increased student bus fees by 250%. That coupled with closures of community hospitals and school cuts throughout the county will impact on their vote.It's also clear that Remainers are far more likely to vote to kick the Tories.

Go out and meet your fellow rural Dorseters. You'll find they'll largely be voting Tory.

I am Dorset born and bred. This county is getting more and more true blue.

I'm out there every night on the door steps and you are so wrong. When the Tories can't hang on to Sherborne Rural and LOSE a ward to Lib Dem who polls over 70% of the vote then something is afoot.

By elections are different beasts entirely.

The Tories have lost their USP in Local Government Election. In the past voters had a choice of better local services / higher council tax or a freeze in council tax financed by cuts to services. Thanks to the government cutting the RSG the Tories are now cutting services AND putting up council tax by the maximum 4.99%.

"Pay more and get less" is not a great message to be sending the voters...particulary when the Tory-run council announces £1.5 million is to be spent on doing up county hall (including a roof garden)

TheScreamingEagles said:

****Trigger Warning****

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/840315284493881345

TUD's avatar has hardened me to this sort of thing... *ahem*

Mortimer said:

TheKrakenAwakes said:

Mortimer said:

TheKrakenAwakes said:

Pulpstar said:

TheKrakenAwakes said:

Pulpstar said:

RobD said:

AndyJS said:

FPT:

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

Actual vote totals I can see being something like :

Conservative 45%
Lib Dems 24%
Labour 15%
UKIP 9%
Greens 2%

I would be staggered if the LDs did that well.

I suppose they might have a chance of hitting 24% in the English shire counties, but the actual vote shares will include local elections in Scotland and Wales and I can't see the LDs doing particularly well there.

Isn't the perceived wisdom that the Tories would lose seats/councils at the upcoming locals? with a vote share of 45% that would be quite hard!

I can't see the Tories losing anything in England. These elections are the Brexitshire heartlands.

Don't you believe it - the funding cuts to councils are going to hit them hard...Lib Dems will do well in their areas but not so sure about Labour areas

I'd hope that'd resonate more than it probably will do.

Maybe, but I live in rural Dorset and the Tories have cut subsidies for buses in the county from by 90% and increased student bus fees by 250%. That coupled with closures of community hospitals and school cuts throughout the county will impact on their vote.It's also clear that Remainers are far more likely to vote to kick the Tories.

Go out and meet your fellow rural Dorseters. You'll find they'll largely be voting Tory.

I am Dorset born and bred. This county is getting more and more true blue.

I'm out there every night on the door steps and you are so wrong. When the Tories can't hang on to Sherborne Rural and LOSE a ward to Lib Dem who polls over 70% of the vote then something is afoot.

By elections are different beasts entirely.

Dorset result 2013 Con 27 LD 12 Lab 5 UKIP 1
Boundary changes give 1 extra to Con
My forecast
Con 26 LD 17 Lab 2 Green 1

MarkSenior said:

Mortimer said:

TheKrakenAwakes said:

Mortimer said:

TheKrakenAwakes said:

Pulpstar said:

TheKrakenAwakes said:

Pulpstar said:

RobD said:

AndyJS said:

FPT:

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

Actual vote totals I can see being something like :

Conservative 45%
Lib Dems 24%
Labour 15%
UKIP 9%
Greens 2%

I would be staggered if the LDs did that well.

I suppose they might have a chance of hitting 24% in the English shire counties, but the actual vote shares will include local elections in Scotland and Wales and I can't see the LDs doing particularly well there.

Isn't the perceived wisdom that the Tories would lose seats/councils at the upcoming locals? with a vote share of 45% that would be quite hard!

I can't see the Tories losing anything in England. These elections are the Brexitshire heartlands.

Don't you believe it - the funding cuts to councils are going to hit them hard...Lib Dems will do well in their areas but not so sure about Labour areas

I'd hope that'd resonate more than it probably will do.

Maybe, but I live in rural Dorset and the Tories have cut subsidies for buses in the county from by 90% and increased student bus fees by 250%. That coupled with closures of community hospitals and school cuts throughout the county will impact on their vote.It's also clear that Remainers are far more likely to vote to kick the Tories.

Go out and meet your fellow rural Dorseters. You'll find they'll largely be voting Tory.

I am Dorset born and bred. This county is getting more and more true blue.

I'm out there every night on the door steps and you are so wrong. When the Tories can't hang on to Sherborne Rural and LOSE a ward to Lib Dem who polls over 70% of the vote then something is afoot.

By elections are different beasts entirely.

Dorset result 2013 Con 27 LD 12 Lab 5 UKIP 1
Boundary changes give 1 extra to Con
My forecast
Con 26 LD 17 Lab 2 Green 1

I'd be happy with that - they'll be elections again in 2019 for the new unitary authorities.Two more years of Tory cuts before then will harden a few minds against the Blues

TheKrakenAwakes said:

Mortimer said:

TheKrakenAwakes said:

Mortimer said:

TheKrakenAwakes said:

Pulpstar said:

TheKrakenAwakes said:

Pulpstar said:

RobD said:

AndyJS said:

FPT:

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

Actual vote totals I can...
Greens 2%

I would be staggered if the LDs did that well.

I suppose they might have a chance of hitting 24% in the English shire counties, but the actual vote shares...

Isn't the perceived wisdom that the Tories would lose seats/councils at the upcoming locals? with a vote share of 45% that would be quite hard!

I can't see the Tories losing anything in England. These elections are the Brexitshire heartlands.

Don't you believe it - the funding cuts to councils are going to hit them hard...Lib Dems will do well in their areas but not so sure about Labour areas

I'd hope that'd resonate more than it probably will do.

Maybe, but I live in rural Dorset and the Tories have cut subsidies for buses in the county from by 90% and increased student bus fees by 250%. That coupled with closures of community hospitals and school cuts throughout the county will impact on their vote.It's also clear that Remainers are far more likely to vote to kick the Tories.

Go out and meet your fellow rural Dorseters. You'll find they'll largely be voting Tory.

I am Dorset born and bred. This county is getting more and more true blue.

I'm out there every night on the door steps and you are so wrong. When the Tories can't hang on to Sherborne Rural and LOSE a ward to Lib Dem who polls over 70% of the vote then something is afoot.

By elections are different beasts entirely.

The Tories have lost their USP in Local Government Election. In the past voters had a choice of better local services / higher council tax or a freeze in council tax financed by cuts to services. Thanks to the government cutting the RSG the Tories are now cutting services AND putting up council tax by the maximum 4.99%.

"Pay more and get less" is not a great message to be sending the voters...particulary when the Tory-run council announces £1.5 million is to be spent on doing up county hall (including a roof garden)

I can understand youre an excited LD activist, we know several of that ilk here, but us punters look at figures. In many of the Tory seats in Dorset UKIP came second last time around. Sherborne Rural was very close last time around.

With Mrs May as PM that is what is called a firewall...

Ireland all over Wales, gripping stuff.

RobD said:

MarkSenior said:

RobD said:

AndyJS said:

RobD said:

AndyJS said:

FPT:

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

Actual vote totals I can see being something like :

Conservative 45%
Lib Dems 24%
Labour 15%
UKIP 9%
Greens 2%

I would be staggered if the LDs did that well.

I suppose they might have a chance of hitting 24% in the English shire counties, but the actual vote shares will include local elections in Scotland and Wales and I can't see the LDs doing particularly well there.

Isn't the perceived wisdom that the Tories would lose seats/councils at the upcoming locals? with a vote share of 45% that would be quite hard!

Their projected share in 2013 was just 29% so you'd expect them to gain seats this time I think. Not sure who thought they'd lose them.

I think MarkSenior's head would explode...

Try not to confuse actual vote share with NEV projected vote share . The actual Conservative vote share in 2013 was nearer 40% ( there were no local elections in Scotland and only Ynys Mon in Wales.
FWIW I have said the Conservatives will gain seats in Scotland and a few in Wales but will be broadly neutral in England

Aren't opinion polls measuring NEV though?

In theory but so far this year Conservative vote share in local elections is around 33% well short of the opinion poll ratings and apart from 1 by election they have all been in England

Dismantling the Yoon shieldwall, one shield at a time.

https://twitter.com/GrayInGlasgow/status/840292191838826496

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

If Theresa May wishes to create some new working peers, I am quite happy to serve my party and country.

Given your recent comments about her I suspect she is more likely to make you governor general of St Helena or UK Special Envoy to Syria

Especially in light of the brown loafers revelation...

Theuniondivvie said:

Dismantling the Yoon shieldwall, one shield at a time.

https://twitter.com/GrayInGlasgow/status/840292191838826496

Despite being a proud Unionist, it is almost worth the Scots leaving to see just how much socialism they won't be able to afford...

RobD said:

MarkSenior said:

RobD said:

MarkSenior said:

RobD said:

AndyJS said:

RobD said:

AndyJS said:

FPT:

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

Actual vote totals I can see being something like :

Conservative 45%
Lib Dems 24%
Labour 15%
UKIP 9%
Greens 2%

I would be staggered if the LDs did that well.

I suppose they might have a chance of hitting 24% in the English shire counties, but the actual vote shares will include local elections in Scotland and Wales and I can't see the LDs doing particularly well there.

Isn't the perceived wisdom that the Tories would lose seats/councils at the upcoming locals? with a vote share of 45% that would be quite hard!

Their projected share in 2013 was just 29% so you'd expect them to gain seats this time I think. Not sure who thought they'd lose them.

I think MarkSenior's head would explode...

Try not to confuse actual vote share with NEV projected vote share . The actual Conservative vote share in 2013 was nearer 40% ( there were no local elections in Scotland and only Ynys Mon in Wales.
FWIW I have said the Conservatives will gain seats in Scotland and a few in Wales but will be broadly neutral in England

Aren't opinion polls measuring NEV though?

In theory but so far this year Conservative vote share in local elections is around 33% well short of the opinion poll ratings and apart from 1 by election they have all been in England

Would be interesting to see vote share in local by elections in the four months preceding the locals plotted against NEV achieved in said locals.

Can someone else give that a go, I'm busy with my by-election swingback model.

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

Dadge said:

justin124 said:

Sean_F said:

Pulpstar said:

RobD said:

AndyJS said:

FPT:

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

Actual vote totals I can see being something like :

Conservative 45%
Lib Dems 24%
Labour 15%
UKIP 9%
Greens 2%

I would be staggered if the LDs did that well.

I suppose they might have a chance of hitting 24% in the English shire counties, but the actual vote shares will include local elections in Scotland and Wales and I can't see the LDs doing particularly well there.

Isn't the perceived wisdom that the Tories would lose seats/councils at the upcoming locals? with a vote share of 45% that would be quite hard!

I can't see the Tories losing anything in England. These elections are the Brexitshire heartlands.

Not all of them. Kent, Essex, the Midlands, Devon, Cornwall, the North and Midlands, certainly. But, parts of the Home Counties, and the M3 and M4 corridors had high Remain votes, and should be good for the Lib Dems.

I really don't believe that Brexit is going to be a major factor in determining how people vote.

I disagree. Not a main factor maybe, but certainly a major one. I think there'll be quite a few unusual swings because of the local feeling on Brexit, and because of the attitude of the local MP to Brexit. UK politics is in for a bumpy ride because of Brexit, and the 2020 GE will be in the wake of the actual departure. If things have gone well, there'll still be resentment from the pro-EU people, and if things have gone badly the impact will be great across the board.

I was specifically referring to the Local Elections this May , but would make the same point with even greater confidence re- 2020. Most people are already sick to death of the issue - and there was very little sign of its electoral salience at the Copeland and Stoke by elections two weeks ago. I suspect that the commentariat and political anoraks are living in a political bubble on this issue. Most people have now moved on.

Wrong, Copeland was a battle between Brexit and the NHS and Brexit won, once May invokes Article 50 it will dominate politics until the next general election

Nonsense - Copeland was about Nuclear power and Corbyn as well as the NHS. Brexit barely featured at all there.

Wrong I made numerous phonecalls in Copeland and it was Brexit which switched UKIP voters to the Tories and Brexit which made the difference for many Labour/Tory waverers

SeanT said:

Top tier international rugby is probably the most entertaining TV sport on the planet. Discuss.

One True Football is played with the Feet, not the Hands.

RobD said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Dismantling the Yoon shieldwall, one shield at a time.

twitter.com/GrayInGlasgow/status/840292191838826496

Why would they stop and independent Scotland joining? I thought the argument was about them stopping them joining automatically.

It has been both. Fears over encouraging separatists aside, it never seemed hugely concerning for the Scots - they might have to wait a bit, but they already meet the criteria, it won't be that long I would think.

Charles said:

Pulpstar said:

RobD said:

MarkSenior said:

RobD said:

MarkSenior said:

RobD said:

AndyJS said:

RobD said:

AndyJS said:

FPT:

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

Actual vote totals I can see being something like :

Conservative 45%
Lib Dems 24%
Labour 15%
UKIP 9%
Greens 2%

I would be staggered if the LDs did that well.

I suppose they might have a chance of hitting 24% in the English shire counties, but the actual vote shares will include local elections in Scotland and Wales and I can't see the LDs doing particularly well there.

Isn't the perceived wisdom that the Tories would lose seats/councils at the upcoming locals? with a vote share of 45% that would be quite hard!

Their projected share in 2013 was just 29% so you'd expect them to gain seats this time I think. Not sure who thought they'd lose them.

I think MarkSenior's head would explode...

Try not to confuse actual vote share with NEV projected vote share . The actual Conservative vote share in 2013 was nearer 40% ( there were no local elections in Scotland and only Ynys Mon in Wales.
FWIW I have said the Conservatives will gain seats in Scotland and a few in Wales but will be broadly neutral in England

Aren't opinion polls measuring NEV though?

In theory but so far this year Conservative vote share in local elections is around 33% well short of the opinion poll ratings and apart from 1 by election they have all been in England

Would be interesting to see vote share in local by elections in the four months preceding the locals plotted against NEV achieved in said locals.

Can someone else give that a go, I'm busy with my by-election swingback model.

It's Friday night FFS!

No better time to tweak your favourite local by-election model.

@Pulpstar - not sure if you were serious.... there are listings of local by election results from previous years. I could write a quick function that averages the vote share each party got between Jan-April.

RobD said:

Charles said:

Pulpstar said:

RobD said:

MarkSenior said:

RobD said:

MarkSenior said:

RobD said:

AndyJS said:

RobD said:

AndyJS said:

FPT:

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

Actual vote totals I can see being something like :

Conservative 45%
Lib Dems 24%
Labour 15%
UKIP 9%
Greens 2%

I would be staggered if the LDs did that well.

I suppose they might have a chance of hitting 24% in the English shire counties, but the actual vote shares will include local elections in Scotland and Wales and I can't see the LDs doing particularly well there.

Isn't the perceived wisdom that the Tories would lose seats/councils at the upcoming locals? with a vote share of 45% that would be quite hard!

Their projected share in 2013 was just 29% so you'd expect them to gain seats this time I think. Not sure who thought they'd lose them.

I think MarkSenior's head would explode...

Try not to confuse actual vote share with NEV projected vote share . The actual Conservative vote share in 2013 was nearer 40% ( there were no local elections in Scotland and only Ynys Mon in Wales.
FWIW I have said the Conservatives will gain seats in Scotland and a few in Wales but will be broadly neutral in England

Aren't opinion polls measuring NEV though?

In theory but so far this year Conservative vote share in local elections is around 33% well short of the opinion poll ratings and apart from 1 by election they have all been in England

Would be interesting to see vote share in local by elections in the four months preceding the locals plotted against NEV achieved in said locals.

Can someone else give that a go, I'm busy with my by-election swingback model.

It's Friday night FFS!

No better time to tweak your favourite local by-election model.

@Pulpstar - not sure if you were serious.... there are listings of local by election results from previous years. I could write a quick function that averages the vote share each party got between Jan-April.

:>

Pulpstar said:

RobD said:

Charles said:

Pulpstar said:

RobD said:

MarkSenior said:

RobD said:

MarkSenior said:

RobD said:

AndyJS said:

RobD said:

AndyJS said:

FPT:

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

Actual vote totals I can see being something like :

Conservative 45%
Lib Dems 24%
Labour 15%
UKIP 9%
Greens 2%

I would be staggered if the LDs did that well.

I suppose they might have a chance of hitting 24% in the English shire counties, but the actual vote shares will include local elections in Scotland and Wales and I can't see the LDs doing particularly well there.

Isn't the perceived wisdom that the Tories would lose seats/councils at the upcoming locals? with a vote share of 45% that would be quite hard!

Their projected share in 2013 was just 29% so you'd expect them to gain seats this time I think. Not sure who thought they'd lose them.

I think MarkSenior's head would explode...

Try not to confuse actual vote share with NEV projected vote share . The actual Conservative vote share in 2013 was nearer 40% ( there were no local elections in Scotland and only Ynys Mon in Wales.
FWIW I have said the Conservatives will gain seats in Scotland and a few in Wales but will be broadly neutral in England

Aren't opinion polls measuring NEV though?

In theory but so far this year Conservative vote share in local elections is around 33% well short of the opinion poll ratings and apart from 1 by election they have all been in England

Would be interesting to see vote share in local by elections in the four months preceding the locals plotted against NEV achieved in said locals.

Can someone else give that a go, I'm busy with my by-election swingback model.

It's Friday night FFS!

No better time to tweak your favourite local by-election model.

@Pulpstar - not sure if you were serious.... there are listings of local by election results from previous years. I could write a quick function that averages the vote share each party got between Jan-April.

:>

Cheeky bugger!

TheScreamingEagles said:

Poll for the Telegraph.

Nearly half of voters say they are less likely to vote Tory after the budget.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/10/tories-no-longer-seen-low-tax-party-philip-hammond-budget-raid/

I wonder how much less likely they need to get before switching to anther party?

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Poll for the Telegraph.

Nearly half of voters say they are less likely to vote Tory after the budget.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/10/tories-no-longer-seen-low-tax-party-philip-hammond-budget-raid/

I wonder how much less likely they need to get before switching to anther party?

Mrs May has ruined the Tory brand and low tax perception.

A fie on her, a fie.

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Poll for the Telegraph.

Nearly half of voters say they are less likely to vote Tory after the budget.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/10/tories-no-longer-seen-low-tax-party-philip-hammond-budget-raid/

I wonder how much less likely they need to get before switching to anther party?

When there is only one party of grown ups vs one led by 70s Socialists, one led by someone unwilling to accept the result of the referendum and one screaming freedom but not actually calling for a referendum, it isn't a difficult choice.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Poll for the Telegraph.

Nearly half of voters say they are less likely to vote Tory after the budget.

A hahaha what a bunch of ridiculously loaded questions.

Almost as if the Telegraph are looking for certain answers to pump up their story with.

Charles said:

Pulpstar said:

RobD said:

MarkSenior said:

RobD said:

MarkSenior said:

RobD said:

AndyJS said:

RobD said:

AndyJS said:

FPT:

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

Actual vote totals I can see being something like :

Conservative 45%
Lib Dems 24%
Labour 15%
UKIP 9%
Greens 2%

I would be staggered if the LDs did that well.

I suppose they might have a chance of hitting 24% in the English shire counties, but the actual vote shares will include local elections in Scotland and Wales and I can't see the LDs doing particularly well there.

Isn't the perceived wisdom that the Tories would lose seats/councils at the upcoming locals? with a vote share of 45% that would be quite hard!

Their projected share in 2013 was just 29% so you'd expect them to gain seats this time I think. Not sure who thought they'd lose them.

I think MarkSenior's head would explode...

Try not to confuse actual vote share with NEV projected vote share . The actual Conservative vote share in 2013 was nearer 40% ( there were no local elections in Scotland and only Ynys Mon in Wales.
FWIW I have said the Conservatives will gain seats in Scotland and a few in Wales but will be broadly neutral in England

Aren't opinion polls measuring NEV though?

In theory but so far this year Conservative vote share in local elections is around 33% well short of the opinion poll ratings and apart from 1 by election they have all been in England

Would be interesting to see vote share in local by elections in the four months preceding the locals plotted against NEV achieved in said locals.

Can someone else give that a go, I'm busy with my by-election swingback model.

It's Friday night FFS!

I'm watching the 1992 election night on Youtube. Very exciting.

For all the talk about how May might move Hammond for a more "right-wing" Chancellor, the talk on Newsnight last night was actually that he'd been watering down what May's "advisers" wanted: apparently they'd been pushing for an even higher National Insurance rise, as well as a rise in Capital Gains Tax, in order to finance much higher spending for the NHS and education.

tlg86 said:

Charles said:

Pulpstar said:

RobD said:

MarkSenior said:

RobD said:

MarkSenior said:

RobD said:

AndyJS said:

RobD said:

AndyJS said:

FPT:

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

Actual vote totals I can see being something like :

Conservative 45%
Lib Dems 24%
Labour 15%
UKIP 9%
Greens 2%

I would be staggered if the LDs did that well.

I suppose they might have a chance of hitting 24% in the English shire counties, but the actual vote shares will include local elections in Scotland and Wales and I can't see the LDs doing particularly well there.

Isn't the perceived wisdom that the Tories would lose seats/councils at the upcoming locals? with a vote share of 45% that would be quite hard!

Their projected share in 2013 was just 29% so you'd expect them to gain seats this time I think. Not sure who thought they'd lose them.

I think MarkSenior's head would explode...

Try not to confuse actual vote share with NEV projected vote share . The actual Conservative vote share in 2013 was nearer 40% ( there were no local elections in Scotland and only Ynys Mon in Wales.
FWIW I have said the Conservatives will gain seats in Scotland and a few in Wales but will be broadly neutral in England

Aren't opinion polls measuring NEV though?

In theory but so far this year Conservative vote share in local elections is around 33% well short of the opinion poll ratings and apart from 1 by election they have all been in England

Would be interesting to see vote share in local by elections in the four months preceding the locals plotted against NEV achieved in said locals.

Can someone else give that a go, I'm busy with my by-election swingback model.

It's Friday night FFS!

I'm watching the 1992 election night on Youtube. Very exciting.

They should bring back that opening music!

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Poll for the Telegraph.

Nearly half of voters say they are less likely to vote Tory after the budget.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/10/tories-no-longer-seen-low-tax-party-philip-hammond-budget-raid/

I wonder how much less likely they need to get before switching to anther party?

Mrs May has ruined the Tory brand and low tax perception.

A fie on her, a fie.

People need to grow up. Social care and the NHS need funding. Where would they like it to come from? (Answer: someone else - but these proposals *would* hit someone else for the majority of the country).

Either way, it'll all blow over by next week.

Having said that, the dream scenario for me would be one where this good and progressive tax proposal passes, but still knackers the Tory brand at the same time! The latter is unlikely, though.

david_herdson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Poll for the Telegraph.

Nearly half of voters say they are less likely to vote Tory after the budget.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/10/tories-no-longer-seen-low-tax-party-philip-hammond-budget-raid/

I wonder how much less likely they need to get before switching to anther party?

Mrs May has ruined the Tory brand and low tax perception.

A fie on her, a fie.

People need to grow up. Social care and the NHS need funding. Where would they like it to come from? (Answer: someone else - but these proposals *would* hit someone else for the majority of the country).

Either way, it'll all blow over by next week.

Anyone who thinks that poll is bad news for the Conservatives needs to be exiled to UKIP Home for the week anyway.

Razedabode said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Poll for the Telegraph.

Nearly half of voters say they are less likely to vote Tory after the budget.

A hahaha what a bunch of ridiculously loaded questions.

Almost as if the Telegraph are looking for certain answers to pump up their story with.

Is there a VI in this? People may be less likely to vote Tory, but at a GE against Labour...

I couldn't see one.

Razedabode said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Poll for the Telegraph.

Nearly half of voters say they are less likely to vote Tory after the budget.

A hahaha what a bunch of ridiculously loaded questions.

Almost as if the Telegraph are looking for certain answers to pump up their story with.

Is there a VI in this? People may be less likely to vote Tory, but at a GE against Labour...

The people who are less likely to vote Tory weren't voting Tory anyway.

Lets be honest here Eagles, thats a poll that would make James Kelly blush.

I share Anthony Wells' opinion of more likely/less likely to vote for questions.

TheScreamingEagles said:

RobD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Poll for the Telegraph.

Nearly half of voters say they are less likely to vote Tory after the budget.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/03/10/tories-no-longer-seen-low-tax-party-philip-hammond-budget-raid/

I wonder how much less likely they need to get before switching to anther party?

Mrs May has ruined the Tory brand and low tax perception.

A fie on her, a fie.

So ruined it that on today's poll she is set for at least as big a landslide as Thatcher got in 1983

tlg86 said:

Charles said:

Pulpstar said:

RobD said:

MarkSenior said:

RobD said:

MarkSenior said:

RobD said:

AndyJS said:

RobD said:

AndyJS said:

FPT:

rcs1000 said:

Pulpstar said:

Actual vote totals I can see being something like :

Conservative 45%
Lib Dems 24%
Labour 15%
UKIP 9%
Greens 2%

I would be staggered if the LDs did that well.

I suppose they might have a chance of hitting 24% in the English shire counties, but the actual vote shares will include local elections in Scotland and Wales and I can't see the LDs doing particularly well there.

Isn't the perceived wisdom that the Tories would lose seats/councils at the upcoming locals? with a vote share of 45% that would be quite hard!

Their projected share in 2013 was just 29% so you'd expect them to gain seats this time I think. Not sure who thought they'd lose them.

I think MarkSenior's head would explode...

Try not to confuse actual vote share with NEV projected vote share . The actual Conservative vote share in 2013 was nearer 40% ( there were no local elections in Scotland and only Ynys Mon in Wales.
FWIW I have said the Conservatives will gain seats in Scotland and a few in Wales but will be broadly neutral in England

Aren't opinion polls measuring NEV though?

In theory but so far this year Conservative vote share in local elections is around 33% well short of the opinion poll ratings and apart from 1 by election they have all been in England

Would be interesting to see vote share in local by elections in the four months preceding the locals plotted against NEV achieved in said locals.

Can someone else give that a go, I'm busy with my by-election swingback model.

It's Friday night FFS!

I'm watching the 1992 election night on Youtube. Very exciting.

I'm reviewing my train pics from this week's trips from Manchester to Wigan direct, Doncaster to Bradford via Pontefract/Wakefield/Halifax, Colne to Blackpool South, Bolton to Clitheroe, and Huddersfield to Barnsley.

Even more exciting

Dixie said:

HYUFD said:

Looks like Wales have just sealed victory over Ireland

Wales score, England...and Scotland rejoice!

England v Scotland tomorrow and Ireland v England next week likely the key matches now

So they may invoke A50 on literally the eve of the Dutch election. That should ensure Wilders the plurality he might otherwise not get.

I wonder what the next steps will be in the Britain-EU27 story, and whether any will occur at useful times in respect of the election in France.

It looks as though there will be three TV debates before the first round of that election: on 20 March, 3 or 4 April, and 20 April. The middle one will be co-hosted by Laurence Ferrari. Is she by any chance related to Laure Ferrari, who stayed with Nigel Farage in London and who is active in Nicolas Dupont-Aignan's political party?

Shows what a crap policy grammar schools are

https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/840326265982853120
https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/840326525589307402