I am not clear who is going to do the not allowing. The obiter dicta of OGH are of considerable persuasive authority, but not binding on anybody.
If she does do this it will take the upper house close to or over the 1,000 member barrier, which must surely to god trigger a proper reform.
Are there reports that she is thinking about appointing 200 new peers?
If the HOL's pings the bill back again do not be surprised
I think she would call an election rather than appoint new peers if that happened.
She can't. FTPA.
Sorry, "call for". Agreed it is far from certain she would have the numbers to do that in the Commons without the farcical situation of Tory MPs voting for no confidence in a Tory government. Have I mentioned how much I don't like the FTPA...
even with that farcical situation she would still crush corbyn tho so whats the problem.
I think Mrs May should lay the motion that Parliament be dissolved for an election on May 4th - just to watch the complete farce that would be the Opposition voting against it!
They would just abstain.
Yes, for this particular vote an abstention is a vote against. They'd take the day off and moan about the Tories wasting valuable Parliamentary time with a vanity project - or some such flowery language as to why they don't want to let the people have their say. Could be close if the SNP were in favour of the election though, a couple of dozen Lab 'rebels' could see the motion pass.
Such rebels would be effectively deselected by being denied NEC endorsement.
Wouldn't that just make it even funnier (or more farcical, depending on your point of view)?
Imagine the conversation: "Sorry, we are suspending you for voting to hold an election". It would have the potential to cause big splits, with rejected MPs standing as incumbent independents, possibly turning safe seats into marginals.
But that would not be the political reality. They would almost certainly end up being expelled for voting for an election at a time when Labour faced being massacred.
Smallstraws talking about political reality is hilarious.
I am not clear who is going to do the not allowing. The obiter dicta of OGH are of considerable persuasive authority, but not binding on anybody.
If she does do this it will take the upper house close to or over the 1,000 member barrier, which must surely to god trigger a proper reform.
Are there reports that she is thinking about appointing 200 new peers?
If the HOL's pings the bill back again do not be surprised
I think she would call an election rather than appoint new peers if that happened.
She can't. FTPA.
Sorry, "call for". Agreed it is far from certain she would have the numbers to do that in the Commons without the farcical situation of Tory MPs voting for no confidence in a Tory government. Have I mentioned how much I don't like the FTPA...
even with that farcical situation she would still crush corbyn tho so whats the problem.
I think Mrs May should lay the motion that Parliament be dissolved for an election on May 4th - just to watch the complete farce that would be the Opposition voting against it!
They would just abstain.
Yes, for this particular vote an abstention is a vote against. They'd take the day off and moan about the Tories wasting valuable Parliamentary time with a vanity project - or some such flowery language as to why they don't want to let the people have their say. Could be close if the SNP were in favour of the election though, a couple of dozen Lab 'rebels' could see the motion pass.
Such rebels would be effectively deselected by being denied NEC endorsement.
You're obsessed with rules; politics is all about pushing boundaries.
I am sure that if 30 Tory MPs refused to vote for such a motion they would face difficulties with their associations or Tory Central Office.
Tory MPs are not frit.
But there may be some Tory MPs who would object on principle to trying to circumvent the FTPA.
I suppose they might have a chance of hitting 24% in the English shire counties, but the actual vote shares will include local elections in Scotland and Wales and I can't see the LDs doing particularly well there.
Isn't the perceived wisdom that the Tories would lose seats/councils at the upcoming locals? with a vote share of 45% that would be quite hard!
I can't see the Tories losing anything in England. These elections are the Brexitshire heartlands.
Don't you believe it - the funding cuts to councils are going to hit them hard...Lib Dems will do well in their areas but not so sure about Labour areas
I'd hope that'd resonate more than it probably will do.
Maybe, but I live in rural Dorset and the Tories have cut subsidies for buses in the county from by 90% and increased student bus fees by 250%. That coupled with closures of community hospitals and school cuts throughout the county will impact on their vote.It's also clear that Remainers are far more likely to vote to kick the Tories.
I suppose they might have a chance of hitting 24% in the English shire counties, but the actual vote shares will include local elections in Scotland and Wales and I can't see the LDs doing particularly well there.
Isn't the perceived wisdom that the Tories would lose seats/councils at the upcoming locals? with a vote share of 45% that would be quite hard!
I can't see the Tories losing anything in England. These elections are the Brexitshire heartlands.
Don't you believe it - the funding cuts to councils are going to hit them hard...Lib Dems will do well in their areas but not so sure about Labour areas
I'd hope that'd resonate more than it probably will do.
Maybe, but I live in rural Dorset and the Tories have cut subsidies for buses in the county from by 90% and increased student bus fees by 250%. That coupled with closures of community hospitals and school cuts throughout the county will impact on their vote.It's also clear that Remainers are far more likely to vote to kick the Tories.
Go out and meet your fellow rural Dorseters. You'll find they'll largely be voting Tory.
I am Dorset born and bred. This county is getting more and more true blue.
I suppose they might have a chance of hitting 24% in the English shire counties, but the actual vote shares will include local elections in Scotland and Wales and I can't see the LDs doing particularly well there.
Isn't the perceived wisdom that the Tories would lose seats/councils at the upcoming locals? with a vote share of 45% that would be quite hard!
Their projected share in 2013 was just 29% so you'd expect them to gain seats this time I think. Not sure who thought they'd lose them.
I think MarkSenior's head would explode...
Try not to confuse actual vote share with NEV projected vote share . The actual Conservative vote share in 2013 was nearer 40% ( there were no local elections in Scotland and only Ynys Mon in Wales. FWIW I have said the Conservatives will gain seats in Scotland and a few in Wales but will be broadly neutral in England
More proof, if proof were needed, that Oxford University is a complete dump.
Three members of the Unite union with close links to Len McCluskey and Jeremy Corbyn “ran rings around the room” at a Labour National Executive Committee hearing into claims of antisemitism and bullying at Oxford University’s Labour Club.
People over 23 getting excited about where they went to college need to closely examine their lives....
It is an important story about current politics given influence of Len McCluskey on Jeremy Corbyn.
If your comment was actually about the Labour Party why did you take the time to smear the country's oldest university with the country's oldest hate crime? I only ask because you paged me (inter alia).
I suppose they might have a chance of hitting 24% in the English shire counties, but the actual vote shares will include local elections in Scotland and Wales and I can't see the LDs doing particularly well there.
Isn't the perceived wisdom that the Tories would lose seats/councils at the upcoming locals? with a vote share of 45% that would be quite hard!
I can't see the Tories losing anything in England. These elections are the Brexitshire heartlands.
Not all of them. Kent, Essex, the Midlands, Devon, Cornwall, the North and Midlands, certainly. But, parts of the Home Counties, and the M3 and M4 corridors had high Remain votes, and should be good for the Lib Dems.
I really don't believe that Brexit is going to be a major factor in determining how people vote.
I disagree. Not a main factor maybe, but certainly a major one. I think there'll be quite a few unusual swings because of the local feeling on Brexit, and because of the attitude of the local MP to Brexit. UK politics is in for a bumpy ride because of Brexit, and the 2020 GE will be in the wake of the actual departure. If things have gone well, there'll still be resentment from the pro-EU people, and if things have gone badly the impact will be great across the board.
I was specifically referring to the Local Elections this May , but would make the same point with even greater confidence re- 2020. Most people are already sick to death of the issue - and there was very little sign of its electoral salience at the Copeland and Stoke by elections two weeks ago. I suspect that the commentariat and political anoraks are living in a political bubble on this issue. Most people have now moved on.
If you're getting a peerage, I wanted to be ennobled as a Duke.
Can you afford it though?
friend of my mine's great-great-grandpa was offered an Earldom (he was a commoner) and rejected it outright snorting "far better to be a prince amongst squires than the most threadbare of the Earls"
I suppose they might have a chance of hitting 24% in the English shire counties, but the actual vote shares will include local elections in Scotland and Wales and I can't see the LDs doing particularly well there.
Isn't the perceived wisdom that the Tories would lose seats/councils at the upcoming locals? with a vote share of 45% that would be quite hard!
I can't see the Tories losing anything in England. These elections are the Brexitshire heartlands.
Don't you believe it - the funding cuts to councils are going to hit them hard...Lib Dems will do well in their areas but not so sure about Labour areas
I'd hope that'd resonate more than it probably will do.
Maybe, but I live in rural Dorset and the Tories have cut subsidies for buses in the county from by 90% and increased student bus fees by 250%. That coupled with closures of community hospitals and school cuts throughout the county will impact on their vote.It's also clear that Remainers are far more likely to vote to kick the Tories.
Go out and meet your fellow rural Dorseters. You'll find they'll largely be voting Tory.
I am Dorset born and bred. This county is getting more and more true blue.
I'm out there every night on the door steps and you are so wrong. When the Tories can't hang on to Sherborne Rural and LOSE a ward to Lib Dem who polls over 70% of the vote then something is afoot.
Top tier international rugby is probably the most entertaining TV sport on the planet. Discuss.
It's certainly up there. Does any Englishman here not remember where they were early in the morning of 22nd November 2003?
The Mount Radford public house in Exeter. The landlady laid on free bacon sandwiches. After the match we rang Qantas and Sydney rugby club both of whom got to work on the Monday to a ruckus on their ansaphone. 7 mates and me did a best of 3 scrum in the bar of a wetherspoons against another 8 lads with the barman playing scrum-half (we lost 2-1) followed by a lineout on a zebra crossing in the centre of Exeter. It was 1pm.. The rest is a blur..
I suppose they might have a chance of hitting 24% in the English shire counties, but the actual vote shares will include local elections in Scotland and Wales and I can't see the LDs doing particularly well there.
Isn't the perceived wisdom that the Tories would lose seats/councils at the upcoming locals? with a vote share of 45% that would be quite hard!
I can't see the Tories losing anything in England. These elections are the Brexitshire heartlands.
Don't you believe it - the funding cuts to councils are going to hit them hard...Lib Dems will do well in their areas but not so sure about Labour areas
I'd hope that'd resonate more than it probably will do.
Maybe, but I live in rural Dorset and the Tories have cut subsidies for buses in the county from by 90% and increased student bus fees by 250%. That coupled with closures of community hospitals and school cuts throughout the county will impact on their vote.It's also clear that Remainers are far more likely to vote to kick the Tories.
Go out and meet your fellow rural Dorseters. You'll find they'll largely be voting Tory.
I am Dorset born and bred. This county is getting more and more true blue.
I'm out there every night on the door steps and you are so wrong. When the Tories can't hang on to Sherborne Rural and LOSE a ward to Lib Dem who polls over 70% of the vote then something is afoot.
I suppose they might have a chance of hitting 24% in the English shire counties, but the actual vote shares will include local elections in Scotland and Wales and I can't see the LDs doing particularly well there.
Isn't the perceived wisdom that the Tories would lose seats/councils at the upcoming locals? with a vote share of 45% that would be quite hard!
Their projected share in 2013 was just 29% so you'd expect them to gain seats this time I think. Not sure who thought they'd lose them.
I think MarkSenior's head would explode...
Try not to confuse actual vote share with NEV projected vote share . The actual Conservative vote share in 2013 was nearer 40% ( there were no local elections in Scotland and only Ynys Mon in Wales. FWIW I have said the Conservatives will gain seats in Scotland and a few in Wales but will be broadly neutral in England
I suppose they might have a chance of hitting 24% in the English shire counties, but the actual vote shares will include local elections in Scotland and Wales and I can't see the LDs doing particularly well there.
Isn't the perceived wisdom that the Tories would lose seats/councils at the upcoming locals? with a vote share of 45% that would be quite hard!
I can't see the Tories losing anything in England. These elections are the Brexitshire heartlands.
Don't you believe it - the funding cuts to councils are going to hit them hard...Lib Dems will do well in their areas but not so sure about Labour areas
I'd hope that'd resonate more than it probably will do.
Maybe, but I live in rural Dorset and the Tories have cut subsidies for buses in the county from by 90% and increased student bus fees by 250%. That coupled with closures of community hospitals and school cuts throughout the county will impact on their vote.It's also clear that Remainers are far more likely to vote to kick the Tories.
Go out and meet your fellow rural Dorseters. You'll find they'll largely be voting Tory.
I am Dorset born and bred. This county is getting more and more true blue.
I'm out there every night on the door steps and you are so wrong. When the Tories can't hang on to Sherborne Rural and LOSE a ward to Lib Dem who polls over 70% of the vote then something is afoot.
Yes, LDs are campaigning while Tories are governing.
I suppose they might have a chance of hitting 24% in the English shire counties, but the actual vote shares will include local elections in Scotland and Wales and I can't see the LDs doing particularly well there.
Isn't the perceived wisdom that the Tories would lose seats/councils at the upcoming locals? with a vote share of 45% that would be quite hard!
I can't see the Tories losing anything in England. These elections are the Brexitshire heartlands.
Don't you believe it - the funding cuts to councils are going to hit them hard...Lib Dems will do well in their areas but not so sure about Labour areas
I'd hope that'd resonate more than it probably will do.
Maybe, but I live in rural Dorset and the Tories have cut subsidies for buses in the county from by 90% and increased student bus fees by 250%. That coupled with closures of community hospitals and school cuts throughout the county will impact on their vote.It's also clear that Remainers are far more likely to vote to kick the Tories.
Go out and meet your fellow rural Dorseters. You'll find they'll largely be voting Tory.
I am Dorset born and bred. This county is getting more and more true blue.
I'm out there every night on the door steps and you are so wrong. When the Tories can't hang on to Sherborne Rural and LOSE a ward to Lib Dem who polls over 70% of the vote then something is afoot.
By elections are different beasts entirely.
The Tories have lost their USP in Local Government Election. In the past voters had a choice of better local services / higher council tax or a freeze in council tax financed by cuts to services. Thanks to the government cutting the RSG the Tories are now cutting services AND putting up council tax by the maximum 4.99%.
"Pay more and get less" is not a great message to be sending the voters...particulary when the Tory-run council announces £1.5 million is to be spent on doing up county hall (including a roof garden)
Top tier international rugby is probably the most entertaining TV sport on the planet. Discuss.
It's certainly up there. Does any Englishman here not remember where they were early in the morning of 22nd November 2003?
The Mount Radford public house in Exeter. The landlady laid on free bacon sandwiches. After the match we rang Qantas and Sydney rugby club both of whom got to work on the Monday to a ruckus on their ansaphone. 7 mates and me did a best of 3 scrum in the bar of a wetherspoons against another 8 lads with the barman playing scrum-half (we lost 2-1) followed by a lineout on a zebra crossing in the centre of Exeter. It was 1pm.. The rest is a blur..
Very good I also started in a bar at 7am and finished with a pub crawl around town.
Those remembering where they were that morning will be a much higher number than those who remember what the hell happened that same afternoon - the only time in my life I've ever had ten beers before midday! Vague memories of passing by to say hello to my parents after lunch, don't think my mum was too happy to see me!
I suppose they might have a chance of hitting 24% in the English shire counties, but the actual vote shares will include local elections in Scotland and Wales and I can't see the LDs doing particularly well there.
Isn't the perceived wisdom that the Tories would lose seats/councils at the upcoming locals? with a vote share of 45% that would be quite hard!
I can't see the Tories losing anything in England. These elections are the Brexitshire heartlands.
Don't you believe it - the funding cuts to councils are going to hit them hard...Lib Dems will do well in their areas but not so sure about Labour areas
I'd hope that'd resonate more than it probably will do.
Maybe, but I live in rural Dorset and the Tories have cut subsidies for buses in the county from by 90% and increased student bus fees by 250%. That coupled with closures of community hospitals and school cuts throughout the county will impact on their vote.It's also clear that Remainers are far more likely to vote to kick the Tories.
Go out and meet your fellow rural Dorseters. You'll find they'll largely be voting Tory.
I am Dorset born and bred. This county is getting more and more true blue.
I'm out there every night on the door steps and you are so wrong. When the Tories can't hang on to Sherborne Rural and LOSE a ward to Lib Dem who polls over 70% of the vote then something is afoot.
Yes, LDs are campaigning while Tories are governing.
I suppose they might have a chance of hitting 24% in the English shire counties, but the actual vote shares will include local elections in Scotland and Wales and I can't see the LDs doing particularly well there.
Isn't the perceived wisdom that the Tories would lose seats/councils at the upcoming locals? with a vote share of 45% that would be quite hard!
I can't see the Tories losing anything in England. These elections are the Brexitshire heartlands.
Don't you believe it - the funding cuts to councils are going to hit them hard...Lib Dems will do well in their areas but not so sure about Labour areas
I'd hope that'd resonate more than it probably will do.
Maybe, but I live in rural Dorset and the Tories have cut subsidies for buses in the county from by 90% and increased student bus fees by 250%. That coupled with closures of community hospitals and school cuts throughout the county will impact on their vote.It's also clear that Remainers are far more likely to vote to kick the Tories.
Go out and meet your fellow rural Dorseters. You'll find they'll largely be voting Tory.
I am Dorset born and bred. This county is getting more and more true blue.
I'm out there every night on the door steps and you are so wrong. When the Tories can't hang on to Sherborne Rural and LOSE a ward to Lib Dem who polls over 70% of the vote then something is afoot.
By elections are different beasts entirely.
Dorset result 2013 Con 27 LD 12 Lab 5 UKIP 1 Boundary changes give 1 extra to Con My forecast Con 26 LD 17 Lab 2 Green 1
I suppose they might have a chance of hitting 24% in the English shire counties, but the actual vote shares will include local elections in Scotland and Wales and I can't see the LDs doing particularly well there.
Isn't the perceived wisdom that the Tories would lose seats/councils at the upcoming locals? with a vote share of 45% that would be quite hard!
I can't see the Tories losing anything in England. These elections are the Brexitshire heartlands.
Don't you believe it - the funding cuts to councils are going to hit them hard...Lib Dems will do well in their areas but not so sure about Labour areas
I'd hope that'd resonate more than it probably will do.
Maybe, but I live in rural Dorset and the Tories have cut subsidies for buses in the county from by 90% and increased student bus fees by 250%. That coupled with closures of community hospitals and school cuts throughout the county will impact on their vote.It's also clear that Remainers are far more likely to vote to kick the Tories.
Go out and meet your fellow rural Dorseters. You'll find they'll largely be voting Tory.
I am Dorset born and bred. This county is getting more and more true blue.
I'm out there every night on the door steps and you are so wrong. When the Tories can't hang on to Sherborne Rural and LOSE a ward to Lib Dem who polls over 70% of the vote then something is afoot.
By elections are different beasts entirely.
Dorset result 2013 Con 27 LD 12 Lab 5 UKIP 1 Boundary changes give 1 extra to Con My forecast Con 26 LD 17 Lab 2 Green 1
I'd be happy with that - they'll be elections again in 2019 for the new unitary authorities.Two more years of Tory cuts before then will harden a few minds against the Blues
I suppose they might have a chance of hitting 24% in the English shire counties, but the actual vote shares will include local elections in Scotland and Wales and I can't see the LDs doing particularly well there.
Isn't the perceived wisdom that the Tories would lose seats/councils at the upcoming locals? with a vote share of 45% that would be quite hard!
I can't see the Tories losing anything in England. These elections are the Brexitshire heartlands.
Not all of them. Kent, Essex, the Midlands, Devon, Cornwall, the North and Midlands, certainly. But, parts of the Home Counties, and the M3 and M4 corridors had high Remain votes, and should be good for the Lib Dems.
I really don't believe that Brexit is going to be a major factor in determining how people vote.
I disagree. Not a main factor maybe, but certainly a major one. I think there'll be quite a few unusual swings because of the local feeling on Brexit, and because of the attitude of the local MP to Brexit. UK politics is in for a bumpy ride because of Brexit, and the 2020 GE will be in the wake of the actual departure. If things have gone well, there'll still be resentment from the pro-EU people, and if things have gone badly the impact will be great across the board.
I was specifically referring to the Local Elections this May , but would make the same point with even greater confidence re- 2020. Most people are already sick to death of the issue - and there was very little sign of its electoral salience at the Copeland and Stoke by elections two weeks ago. I suspect that the commentariat and political anoraks are living in a political bubble on this issue. Most people have now moved on.
Wrong, Copeland was a battle between Brexit and the NHS and Brexit won, once May invokes Article 50 it will dominate politics until the next general election
I suppose they might have a chance of hitting 24% in the English shire counties, but the actual vote shares...
Isn't the perceived wisdom that the Tories would lose seats/councils at the upcoming locals? with a vote share of 45% that would be quite hard!
I can't see the Tories losing anything in England. These elections are the Brexitshire heartlands.
Don't you believe it - the funding cuts to councils are going to hit them hard...Lib Dems will do well in their areas but not so sure about Labour areas
I'd hope that'd resonate more than it probably will do.
Maybe, but I live in rural Dorset and the Tories have cut subsidies for buses in the county from by 90% and increased student bus fees by 250%. That coupled with closures of community hospitals and school cuts throughout the county will impact on their vote.It's also clear that Remainers are far more likely to vote to kick the Tories.
Go out and meet your fellow rural Dorseters. You'll find they'll largely be voting Tory.
I am Dorset born and bred. This county is getting more and more true blue.
I'm out there every night on the door steps and you are so wrong. When the Tories can't hang on to Sherborne Rural and LOSE a ward to Lib Dem who polls over 70% of the vote then something is afoot.
By elections are different beasts entirely.
The Tories have lost their USP in Local Government Election. In the past voters had a choice of better local services / higher council tax or a freeze in council tax financed by cuts to services. Thanks to the government cutting the RSG the Tories are now cutting services AND putting up council tax by the maximum 4.99%.
"Pay more and get less" is not a great message to be sending the voters...particulary when the Tory-run council announces £1.5 million is to be spent on doing up county hall (including a roof garden)
I can understand youre an excited LD activist, we know several of that ilk here, but us punters look at figures. In many of the Tory seats in Dorset UKIP came second last time around. Sherborne Rural was very close last time around.
With Mrs May as PM that is what is called a firewall...
Cameron did appoint approx 200 Peers - but almost the same number died / retired / went on leave of absence in the same period (excludes Cameron's initial appointments in late 2010 who were principally Brown's resignation honours list).
I suppose they might have a chance of hitting 24% in the English shire counties, but the actual vote shares will include local elections in Scotland and Wales and I can't see the LDs doing particularly well there.
Isn't the perceived wisdom that the Tories would lose seats/councils at the upcoming locals? with a vote share of 45% that would be quite hard!
Their projected share in 2013 was just 29% so you'd expect them to gain seats this time I think. Not sure who thought they'd lose them.
I think MarkSenior's head would explode...
Try not to confuse actual vote share with NEV projected vote share . The actual Conservative vote share in 2013 was nearer 40% ( there were no local elections in Scotland and only Ynys Mon in Wales. FWIW I have said the Conservatives will gain seats in Scotland and a few in Wales but will be broadly neutral in England
Aren't opinion polls measuring NEV though?
In theory but so far this year Conservative vote share in local elections is around 33% well short of the opinion poll ratings and apart from 1 by election they have all been in England
I suppose they might have a chance of hitting 24% in the English shire counties, but the actual vote shares will include local elections in Scotland and Wales and I can't see the LDs doing particularly well there.
Isn't the perceived wisdom that the Tories would lose seats/councils at the upcoming locals? with a vote share of 45% that would be quite hard!
Their projected share in 2013 was just 29% so you'd expect them to gain seats this time I think. Not sure who thought they'd lose them.
I think MarkSenior's head would explode...
Try not to confuse actual vote share with NEV projected vote share . The actual Conservative vote share in 2013 was nearer 40% ( there were no local elections in Scotland and only Ynys Mon in Wales. FWIW I have said the Conservatives will gain seats in Scotland and a few in Wales but will be broadly neutral in England
Aren't opinion polls measuring NEV though?
In theory but so far this year Conservative vote share in local elections is around 33% well short of the opinion poll ratings and apart from 1 by election they have all been in England
Would be interesting to see vote share in local by elections in the four months preceding the locals plotted against NEV achieved in said locals.
I suppose they might have a chance of hitting 24% in the English shire counties, but the actual vote shares will include local elections in Scotland and Wales and I can't see the LDs doing particularly well there.
Isn't the perceived wisdom that the Tories would lose seats/councils at the upcoming locals? with a vote share of 45% that would be quite hard!
I can't see the Tories losing anything in England. These elections are the Brexitshire heartlands.
Not all of them. Kent, Essex, the Midlands, Devon, Cornwall, the North and Midlands, certainly. But, parts of the Home Counties, and the M3 and M4 corridors had high Remain votes, and should be good for the Lib Dems.
I really don't believe that Brexit is going to be a major factor in determining how people vote.
I disagree. Not a main factor maybe, but certainly a major one. I think there'll be quite a few unusual swings because of the local feeling on Brexit, and because of the attitude of the local MP to Brexit. UK politics is in for a bumpy ride because of Brexit, and the 2020 GE will be in the wake of the actual departure. If things have gone well, there'll still be resentment from the pro-EU people, and if things have gone badly the impact will be great across the board.
I was specifically referring to the Local Elections this May , but would make the same point with even greater confidence re- 2020. Most people are already sick to death of the issue - and there was very little sign of its electoral salience at the Copeland and Stoke by elections two weeks ago. I suspect that the commentariat and political anoraks are living in a political bubble on this issue. Most people have now moved on.
Wrong, Copeland was a battle between Brexit and the NHS and Brexit won, once May invokes Article 50 it will dominate politics until the next general election
Nonsense - Copeland was about Nuclear power and Corbyn as well as the NHS. Brexit barely featured at all there.
I suppose they might have a chance of hitting 24% in the English shire counties, but the actual vote shares will include local elections in Scotland and Wales and I can't see the LDs doing particularly well there.
Isn't the perceived wisdom that the Tories would lose seats/councils at the upcoming locals? with a vote share of 45% that would be quite hard!
Their projected share in 2013 was just 29% so you'd expect them to gain seats this time I think. Not sure who thought they'd lose them.
I think MarkSenior's head would explode...
Try not to confuse actual vote share with NEV projected vote share . The actual Conservative vote share in 2013 was nearer 40% ( there were no local elections in Scotland and only Ynys Mon in Wales. FWIW I have said the Conservatives will gain seats in Scotland and a few in Wales but will be broadly neutral in England
Aren't opinion polls measuring NEV though?
In theory but so far this year Conservative vote share in local elections is around 33% well short of the opinion poll ratings and apart from 1 by election they have all been in England
The local elections this year aren't for another two months.
I suppose they might have a chance of hitting 24% in the English shire counties, but the actual vote shares will include local elections in Scotland and Wales and I can't see the LDs doing particularly well there.
Isn't the perceived wisdom that the Tories would lose seats/councils at the upcoming locals? with a vote share of 45% that would be quite hard!
Their projected share in 2013 was just 29% so you'd expect them to gain seats this time I think. Not sure who thought they'd lose them.
I think MarkSenior's head would explode...
Try not to confuse actual vote share with NEV projected vote share . The actual Conservative vote share in 2013 was nearer 40% ( there were no local elections in Scotland and only Ynys Mon in Wales. FWIW I have said the Conservatives will gain seats in Scotland and a few in Wales but will be broadly neutral in England
Aren't opinion polls measuring NEV though?
In theory but so far this year Conservative vote share in local elections is around 33% well short of the opinion poll ratings and apart from 1 by election they have all been in England
Would be interesting to see vote share in local by elections in the four months preceding the locals plotted against NEV achieved in said locals.
Can someone else give that a go, I'm busy with my by-election swingback model.
I suppose they might have a chance of hitting 24% in the English shire counties, but the actual vote shares will include local elections in Scotland and Wales and I can't see the LDs doing particularly well there.
Isn't the perceived wisdom that the Tories would lose seats/councils at the upcoming locals? with a vote share of 45% that would be quite hard!
I can't see the Tories losing anything in England. These elections are the Brexitshire heartlands.
Not all of them. Kent, Essex, the Midlands, Devon, Cornwall, the North and Midlands, certainly. But, parts of the Home Counties, and the M3 and M4 corridors had high Remain votes, and should be good for the Lib Dems.
I really don't believe that Brexit is going to be a major factor in determining how people vote.
I disagree. Not a main factor maybe, but certainly a major one. I think there'll be quite a few unusual swings because of the local feeling on Brexit, and because of the attitude of the local MP to Brexit. UK politics is in for a bumpy ride because of Brexit, and the 2020 GE will be in the wake of the actual departure. If things have gone well, there'll still be resentment from the pro-EU people, and if things have gone badly the impact will be great across the board.
I was specifically referring to the Local Elections this May , but would make the same point with even greater confidence re- 2020. Most people are already sick to death of the issue - and there was very little sign of its electoral salience at the Copeland and Stoke by elections two weeks ago. I suspect that the commentariat and political anoraks are living in a political bubble on this issue. Most people have now moved on.
Wrong, Copeland was a battle between Brexit and the NHS and Brexit won, once May invokes Article 50 it will dominate politics until the next general election
Nonsense - Copeland was about Nuclear power and Corbyn as well as the NHS. Brexit barely featured at all there.
Wrong I made numerous phonecalls in Copeland and it was Brexit which switched UKIP voters to the Tories and Brexit which made the difference for many Labour/Tory waverers
I was specifically referring to the Local Elections this May , but would make the same point with even greater confidence re- 2020. Most people are already sick to death of the issue - and there was very little sign of its electoral salience at the Copeland and Stoke by elections two weeks ago. I suspect that the commentariat and political anoraks are living in a political bubble on this issue. Most people have now moved on.
Wrong, Copeland was a battle between Brexit and the NHS and Brexit won, once May invokes Article 50 it will dominate politics until the next general election
Nonsense - Copeland was about Nuclear power and Corbyn as well as the NHS. Brexit barely featured at all there.
Wrong I made numerous phonecalls in Copeland and it was Brexit which switched UKIP voters to the Tories and Brexit which made the difference for many Labour/Tory waverers
I suppose they might have a chance of hitting 24% in the English shire counties, but the actual vote shares will include local elections in Scotland and Wales and I can't see the LDs doing particularly well there.
Isn't the perceived wisdom that the Tories would lose seats/councils at the upcoming locals? with a vote share of 45% that would be quite hard!
Their projected share in 2013 was just 29% so you'd expect them to gain seats this time I think. Not sure who thought they'd lose them.
I think MarkSenior's head would explode...
Try not to confuse actual vote share with NEV projected vote share . The actual Conservative vote share in 2013 was nearer 40% ( there were no local elections in Scotland and only Ynys Mon in Wales. FWIW I have said the Conservatives will gain seats in Scotland and a few in Wales but will be broadly neutral in England
Aren't opinion polls measuring NEV though?
In theory but so far this year Conservative vote share in local elections is around 33% well short of the opinion poll ratings and apart from 1 by election they have all been in England
Would be interesting to see vote share in local by elections in the four months preceding the locals plotted against NEV achieved in said locals.
Can someone else give that a go, I'm busy with my by-election swingback model.
Why would they stop and independent Scotland joining? I thought the argument was about them stopping them joining automatically.
It has been both. Fears over encouraging separatists aside, it never seemed hugely concerning for the Scots - they might have to wait a bit, but they already meet the criteria, it won't be that long I would think.
I suppose they might have a chance of hitting 24% in the English shire counties, but the actual vote shares will include local elections in Scotland and Wales and I can't see the LDs doing particularly well there.
Isn't the perceived wisdom that the Tories would lose seats/councils at the upcoming locals? with a vote share of 45% that would be quite hard!
Their projected share in 2013 was just 29% so you'd expect them to gain seats this time I think. Not sure who thought they'd lose them.
I think MarkSenior's head would explode...
Try not to confuse actual vote share with NEV projected vote share . The actual Conservative vote share in 2013 was nearer 40% ( there were no local elections in Scotland and only Ynys Mon in Wales. FWIW I have said the Conservatives will gain seats in Scotland and a few in Wales but will be broadly neutral in England
Aren't opinion polls measuring NEV though?
In theory but so far this year Conservative vote share in local elections is around 33% well short of the opinion poll ratings and apart from 1 by election they have all been in England
Would be interesting to see vote share in local by elections in the four months preceding the locals plotted against NEV achieved in said locals.
Can someone else give that a go, I'm busy with my by-election swingback model.
It's Friday night FFS!
No better time to tweak your favourite local by-election model.
@Pulpstar - not sure if you were serious.... there are listings of local by election results from previous years. I could write a quick function that averages the vote share each party got between Jan-April.
I suppose they might have a chance of hitting 24% in the English shire counties, but the actual vote shares will include local elections in Scotland and Wales and I can't see the LDs doing particularly well there.
Isn't the perceived wisdom that the Tories would lose seats/councils at the upcoming locals? with a vote share of 45% that would be quite hard!
Their projected share in 2013 was just 29% so you'd expect them to gain seats this time I think. Not sure who thought they'd lose them.
I think MarkSenior's head would explode...
Try not to confuse actual vote share with NEV projected vote share . The actual Conservative vote share in 2013 was nearer 40% ( there were no local elections in Scotland and only Ynys Mon in Wales. FWIW I have said the Conservatives will gain seats in Scotland and a few in Wales but will be broadly neutral in England
Aren't opinion polls measuring NEV though?
In theory but so far this year Conservative vote share in local elections is around 33% well short of the opinion poll ratings and apart from 1 by election they have all been in England
Would be interesting to see vote share in local by elections in the four months preceding the locals plotted against NEV achieved in said locals.
Can someone else give that a go, I'm busy with my by-election swingback model.
It's Friday night FFS!
No better time to tweak your favourite local by-election model.
@Pulpstar - not sure if you were serious.... there are listings of local by election results from previous years. I could write a quick function that averages the vote share each party got between Jan-April.
I suppose they might have a chance of hitting 24% in the English shire counties, but the actual vote shares will include local elections in Scotland and Wales and I can't see the LDs doing particularly well there.
Isn't the perceived wisdom that the Tories would lose seats/councils at the upcoming locals? with a vote share of 45% that would be quite hard!
I can't see the Tories losing anything in England. These elections are the Brexitshire heartlands.
I really don't believe that Brexit is going to be a major factor in determining how people vote.
I disagree. Not a main factor maybe, but certainly a major one. I think there'll be quite a few unusual swings because of the local feeling on Brexit, and because of the attitude of the local MP to Brexit. UK politics is in for a bumpy ride because of Brexit, and the 2020 GE will be in the wake of the actual departure. If things have gone well, there'll still be resentment from the pro-EU people, and if things have gone badly the impact will be great across the board.
I.
Wrong, Copeland was a battle between Brexit and the NHS and Brexit won, once May invokes Article 50 it will dominate politics until the next general election
Nonsense - Copeland was about Nuclear power and Corbyn as well as the NHS. Brexit barely featured at all there.
Wrong I made numerous phonecalls in Copeland and it was Brexit which switched UKIP voters to the Tories and Brexit which made the difference for many Labour/Tory waverers
I have not seen a report from anyone who campaigned on the ground there suggest that Brexit was salient. Overwhemingly it was about nuclear power and Corbyn - though I accept that Brexit will have helped the Tories pick up UKIP voters. In no sense, however, was it a big campaign issue.
I suppose they might have a chance of hitting 24% in the English shire counties, but the actual vote shares will include local elections in Scotland and Wales and I can't see the LDs doing particularly well there.
Isn't the perceived wisdom that the Tories would lose seats/councils at the upcoming locals? with a vote share of 45% that would be quite hard!
Their projected share in 2013 was just 29% so you'd expect them to gain seats this time I think. Not sure who thought they'd lose them.
I think MarkSenior's head would explode...
Try not to confuse actual vote share with NEV projected vote share . The actual Conservative vote share in 2013 was nearer 40% ( there were no local elections in Scotland and only Ynys Mon in Wales. FWIW I have said the Conservatives will gain seats in Scotland and a few in Wales but will be broadly neutral in England
Aren't opinion polls measuring NEV though?
In theory but so far this year Conservative vote share in local elections is around 33% well short of the opinion poll ratings and apart from 1 by election they have all been in England
Would be interesting to see vote share in local by elections in the four months preceding the locals plotted against NEV achieved in said locals.
Can someone else give that a go, I'm busy with my by-election swingback model.
It's Friday night FFS!
No better time to tweak your favourite local by-election model.
@Pulpstar - not sure if you were serious.... there are listings of local by election results from previous years. I could write a quick function that averages the vote share each party got between Jan-April.
Top tier international rugby is probably the most entertaining TV sport on the planet. Discuss.
It's certainly up there. Does any Englishman here not remember where they were early in the morning of 22nd November 2003?
The Mount Radford public house in Exeter. The landlady laid on free bacon sandwiches. After the match we rang Qantas and Sydney rugby club both of whom got to work on the Monday to a ruckus on their ansaphone. 7 mates and me did a best of 3 scrum in the bar of a wetherspoons against another 8 lads with the barman playing scrum-half (we lost 2-1) followed by a lineout on a zebra crossing in the centre of Exeter. It was 1pm.. The rest is a blur..
Very good I also started in a bar at 7am and finished with a pub crawl around town.
Those remembering where they were that morning will be a much higher number than those who remember what the hell happened that same afternoon - the only time in my life I've ever had ten beers before midday! Vague memories of passing by to say hello to my parents after lunch, don't think my mum was too happy to see me!
Watched the match in Walkabout in Leeds city centre. I don't remember the afternoon. I do remember my friend ordering a bottle of champagne from the Aussie barman shortly after full time.
I wonder how much less likely they need to get before switching to anther party?
When there is only one party of grown ups vs one led by 70s Socialists, one led by someone unwilling to accept the result of the referendum and one screaming freedom but not actually calling for a referendum, it isn't a difficult choice.
I suppose they might have a chance of hitting 24% in the English shire counties, but the actual vote shares will include local elections in Scotland and Wales and I can't see the LDs doing particularly well there.
Isn't the perceived wisdom that the Tories would lose seats/councils at the upcoming locals? with a vote share of 45% that would be quite hard!
Their projected share in 2013 was just 29% so you'd expect them to gain seats this time I think. Not sure who thought they'd lose them.
I think MarkSenior's head would explode...
Try not to confuse actual vote share with NEV projected vote share . The actual Conservative vote share in 2013 was nearer 40% ( there were no local elections in Scotland and only Ynys Mon in Wales. FWIW I have said the Conservatives will gain seats in Scotland and a few in Wales but will be broadly neutral in England
Aren't opinion polls measuring NEV though?
In theory but so far this year Conservative vote share in local elections is around 33% well short of the opinion poll ratings and apart from 1 by election they have all been in England
Would be interesting to see vote share in local by elections in the four months preceding the locals plotted against NEV achieved in said locals.
Can someone else give that a go, I'm busy with my by-election swingback model.
It's Friday night FFS!
I'm watching the 1992 election night on Youtube. Very exciting.
For all the talk about how May might move Hammond for a more "right-wing" Chancellor, the talk on Newsnight last night was actually that he'd been watering down what May's "advisers" wanted: apparently they'd been pushing for an even higher National Insurance rise, as well as a rise in Capital Gains Tax, in order to finance much higher spending for the NHS and education.
I suppose they might have a chance of hitting 24% in the English shire counties, but the actual vote shares will include local elections in Scotland and Wales and I can't see the LDs doing particularly well there.
Isn't the perceived wisdom that the Tories would lose seats/councils at the upcoming locals? with a vote share of 45% that would be quite hard!
Their projected share in 2013 was just 29% so you'd expect them to gain seats this time I think. Not sure who thought they'd lose them.
I think MarkSenior's head would explode...
Try not to confuse actual vote share with NEV projected vote share . The actual Conservative vote share in 2013 was nearer 40% ( there were no local elections in Scotland and only Ynys Mon in Wales. FWIW I have said the Conservatives will gain seats in Scotland and a few in Wales but will be broadly neutral in England
Aren't opinion polls measuring NEV though?
In theory but so far this year Conservative vote share in local elections is around 33% well short of the opinion poll ratings and apart from 1 by election they have all been in England
Would be interesting to see vote share in local by elections in the four months preceding the locals plotted against NEV achieved in said locals.
Can someone else give that a go, I'm busy with my by-election swingback model.
It's Friday night FFS!
I'm watching the 1992 election night on Youtube. Very exciting.
I wonder how much less likely they need to get before switching to anther party?
Mrs May has ruined the Tory brand and low tax perception.
A fie on her, a fie.
People need to grow up. Social care and the NHS need funding. Where would they like it to come from? (Answer: someone else - but these proposals *would* hit someone else for the majority of the country).
Having said that, the dream scenario for me would be one where this good and progressive tax proposal passes, but still knackers the Tory brand at the same time! The latter is unlikely, though.
I suppose they might have a chance of hitting 24% in the English shire counties, but the actual vote shares will include local elections in Scotland and Wales and I can't see the LDs doing particularly well there.
Isn't the perceived wisdom that the Tories would lose seats/councils at the upcoming locals? with a vote share of 45% that would be quite hard!
I can't see the Tories losing anything in England. These elections are the Brexitshire heartlands.
I really don't believe that Brexit is going to be a major factor in determining how people vote.
I disagree. Not a main factor maybe, but certainly a major one. I think there'll be quite a few unusual swings because of the gone well, there'll still be resentment from the pro-EU people, and if things have gone badly the impact will be great across the board.
I.
Wrong, Copeland was a battle between Brexit and the NHS and Brexit won, once May invokes Article 50 it will dominate politics until the next general election
Nonsense - Copeland was about Nuclear power and Corbyn as well as the NHS. Brexit barely featured at all there.
Wrong I made numerous phonecalls in Copeland and it was Brexit which switched UKIP voters to the Tories and Brexit which made the difference for many Labour/Tory waverers
I have not seen a report from anyone who campaigned on the ground there suggest that Brexit was salient. Overwhemingly it was about nuclear power and Corbyn - though I accept that Brexit will have helped the Tories pick up UKIP voters. In no sense, however, was it a big campaign issue.
I must have made several hundred calls in Copeland over the campaign and I can tell you Brexit was a big issue, of course nuclear power and Corbyn were issues too but Brexit was also raised frequently. You seem to have forgotten more people voted in the EU referendum than any general election since 1992, Brexit is not going away as an issue any time soon and certainly not until the deal is done and we have had a subsequent general election
I wonder how much less likely they need to get before switching to anther party?
Mrs May has ruined the Tory brand and low tax perception.
A fie on her, a fie.
People need to grow up. Social care and the NHS need funding. Where would they like it to come from? (Answer: someone else - but these proposals *would* hit someone else for the majority of the country).
Either way, it'll all blow over by next week.
Anyone who thinks that poll is bad news for the Conservatives needs to be exiled to UKIP Home for the week anyway.
I'm watching the 1992 election night on Youtube. Very exciting.
They should bring back that opening music!
Agreed. I was five in April 1992, but I can remember the day because I had the day off school as my school was our polling station. I'm an hour in and so far Labour are saying that Major and the Tories have "definitely lost".
Top tier international rugby is probably the most entertaining TV sport on the planet. Discuss.
It's certainly up there. Does any Englishman here not remember where they were early in the morning of 22nd November 2003?
The Mount Radford public house in Exeter. The landlady laid on free bacon sandwiches. After the match we rang Qantas and Sydney rugby club both of whom got to work on the Monday to a ruckus on their ansaphone. 7 mates and me did a best of 3 scrum in the bar of a wetherspoons against another 8 lads with the barman playing scrum-half (we lost 2-1) followed by a lineout on a zebra crossing in the centre of Exeter. It was 1pm.. The rest is a blur..
I was in bed with my girlfriend. I unexpectedly fucked her again, after Jonny Wilkinson's dropgoal, by way of celebration. Such was the surge of testosterone.
I genuinely cannot decide which was the greater sporting moment, that, or the afternoon we won Flitntoff's Ashes.
Both came after so many decades of mediocrity. And since. But hey. YAY
I was in bed w a girl too.. not my gf though.. a one night stand w a girl from work. Only Rugby match I have ever remembered!
Slinked back to Hornchurch and went straight to the pub, I think Arsenal bt Birmingham City that afternoon!
I suppose they might have a chance of hitting 24% in the English shire counties, but the actual vote shares will include local elections in Scotland and Wales and I can't see the LDs doing particularly well there.
Isn't the perceived wisdom that the Tories would lose seats/councils at the upcoming locals? with a vote share of 45% that would be quite hard!
Their projected share in 2013 was just 29% so you'd expect them to gain seats this time I think. Not sure who thought they'd lose them.
I think MarkSenior's head would explode...
Try not to confuse actual vote share with NEV projected vote share . The actual Conservative vote share in 2013 was nearer 40% ( there were no local elections in Scotland and only Ynys Mon in Wales. FWIW I have said the Conservatives will gain seats in Scotland and a few in Wales but will be broadly neutral in England
Aren't opinion polls measuring NEV though?
In theory but so far this year Conservative vote share in local elections is around 33% well short of the opinion poll ratings and apart from 1 by election they have all been in England
Would be interesting to see vote share in local by elections in the four months preceding the locals plotted against NEV achieved in said locals.
Can someone else give that a go, I'm busy with my by-election swingback model.
It's Friday night FFS!
I'm watching the 1992 election night on Youtube. Very exciting.
nothing beats rewatching the referendum on the beeb when dimblebore had to announce we were leaving
I wonder how much less likely they need to get before switching to anther party?
Mrs May has ruined the Tory brand and low tax perception.
A fie on her, a fie.
People need to grow up. Social care and the NHS need funding. Where would they like it to come from? (Answer: someone else - but these proposals *would* hit someone else for the majority of the country).
Either way, it'll all blow over by next week.
Anyone who thinks that poll is bad news for the Conservatives needs to be exiled to UKIP Home for the week anyway.
I'm exiled to Manchester for the next two days for wedding shopping, then I'm off to America for a few days.
I'm fairly certain Mrs May has asked Mr Trump to ensure that the TSA give me a warm welcome.
I suppose they might have a chance of hitting 24% in the English shire counties, but the actual vote shares will include local elections in Scotland and Wales and I can't see the LDs doing particularly well there.
Isn't the perceived wisdom that the Tories would lose seats/councils at the upcoming locals? with a vote share of 45% that would be quite hard!
Their projected share in 2013 was just 29% so you'd expect them to gain seats this time I think. Not sure who thought they'd lose them.
I think MarkSenior's head would explode...
Try not to confuse actual vote share with NEV projected vote share . The actual Conservative vote share in 2013 was nearer 40% ( there were no local elections in Scotland and only Ynys Mon in Wales. FWIW I have said the Conservatives will gain seats in Scotland and a few in Wales but will be broadly neutral in England
Aren't opinion polls measuring NEV though?
In theory but so far this year Conservative vote share in local elections is around 33% well short of the opinion poll ratings and apart from 1 by election they have all been in England
Would be interesting to see vote share in local by elections in the four months preceding the locals plotted against NEV achieved in said locals.
Can someone else give that a go, I'm busy with my by-election swingback model.
It's Friday night FFS!
I'm watching the 1992 election night on Youtube. Very exciting.
I'm reviewing my train pics from this week's trips from Manchester to Wigan direct, Doncaster to Bradford via Pontefract/Wakefield/Halifax, Colne to Blackpool South, Bolton to Clitheroe, and Huddersfield to Barnsley.
Top tier international rugby is probably the most entertaining TV sport on the planet. Discuss.
It's certainly up there. Does any Englishman here not remember where they were early in the morning of 22nd November 2003?
The Mount Radford public house in Exeter. The landlady laid on free bacon sandwiches. After the match we rang Qantas and Sydney rugby club both of whom got to work on the Monday to a ruckus on their ansaphone. 7 mates and me did a best of 3 scrum in the bar of a wetherspoons against another 8 lads with the barman playing scrum-half (we lost 2-1) followed by a lineout on a zebra crossing in the centre of Exeter. It was 1pm.. The rest is a blur..
I was in bed with my girlfriend. I unexpectedly fucked her again, after Jonny Wilkinson's dropgoal, by way of celebration. Such was the surge of testosterone.
I genuinely cannot decide which was the greater sporting moment, that, or the afternoon we won Flitntoff's Ashes.
Both came after so many decades of mediocrity. And since. But hey. YAY
I was in bed w a girl too.. not my gf though.. a one night stand w a girl from work. Only Rugby match I have ever remembered!
Slinked back to Hornchurch and went straight to the pub, I think Arsenal bt Birmingham City that afternoon!
Birmingham 0-3 Arsenal... Arsene Wenger's 400th match
So they may invoke A50 on literally the eve of the Dutch election. That should ensure Wilders the plurality he might otherwise not get.
I wonder what the next steps will be in the Britain-EU27 story, and whether any will occur at useful times in respect of the election in France.
It looks as though there will be three TV debates before the first round of that election: on 20 March, 3 or 4 April, and 20 April. The middle one will be co-hosted by Laurence Ferrari. Is she by any chance related to Laure Ferrari, who stayed with Nigel Farage in London and who is active in Nicolas Dupont-Aignan's political party?
I wonder how much less likely they need to get before switching to anther party?
Mrs May has ruined the Tory brand and low tax perception.
A fie on her, a fie.
So ruined it that on today's poll she is set for at least as big a landslide as Thatcher got in 1983
She might need all the majority she can get...
"Tory backbenchers are increasing pressure on Theresa May ahead of crucial votes next week, to make certain that Parliament has the final say on Britain’s future at the end of Brexit negotiations."
I'm watching the 1992 election night on Youtube. Very exciting.
They should bring back that opening music!
Agreed. I was five in April 1992, but I can remember the day because I had the day off school as my school was our polling station. I'm an hour in and so far Labour are saying that Major and the Tories have "definitely lost".
Have you got to the bit where Gordon Brown says that because the Tories have lost their majority, Major has to quit?
I don't remember him using the same argument in 2010!
I share Anthony Wells' opinion of more likely/less likely to vote for questions.
Has anyone taken a look at the Telegraphs employment structure recently ?
Although I might be accused here of being an "enemy of the free press" or whatever, I do kind of think journalists should HAVE to declare whether they have a personal interest in a tax/spending issue on which they're writing an article.
the most self centred man on the planet. I was once sent to do question time thingy for the Tories and it was me, Caroline Pidgeon - Lib, the delightful Sian Berry (Green) and George. They bigged up George beforehand they gave him the drum roll...and he had disappeared. We were low life. Sad as I wanted to say..."George, you are taking money from the Arabs aren't you?" Couldn't sadly.
Comments
Crouch, hold, set, collapse.
Crouch, hold, set, collapse...
Yes, very entertaining.
I am Dorset born and bred. This county is getting more and more true blue.
FWIW I have said the Conservatives will gain seats in Scotland and a few in Wales but will be broadly neutral in England
friend of my mine's great-great-grandpa was offered an Earldom (he was a commoner) and rejected it outright snorting "far better to be a prince amongst squires than the most threadbare of the Earls"
George Galloway may enter race to become Gorton MP
Former Labour and Respect MP expected to join several candidates bidding to win seat following Gerald Kaufman’s death
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/10/george-galloway-may-enter-race-to-become-gorton-mp
https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/840315284493881345
"Pay more and get less" is not a great message to be sending the voters...particulary when the Tory-run council announces £1.5 million is to be spent on doing up county hall (including a roof garden)
Those remembering where they were that morning will be a much higher number than those who remember what the hell happened that same afternoon - the only time in my life I've ever had ten beers before midday! Vague memories of passing by to say hello to my parents after lunch, don't think my mum was too happy to see me!
Boundary changes give 1 extra to Con
My forecast
Con 26 LD 17 Lab 2 Green 1
With Mrs May as PM that is what is called a firewall...
Despite the huge cuts to income tax the Tories aren't viewed as a low-tax party!
June 2011 - 788 Peers
Today - 804 Peers
Cameron did appoint approx 200 Peers - but almost the same number died / retired / went on leave of absence in the same period (excludes Cameron's initial appointments in late 2010 who were principally Brown's resignation honours list).
https://twitter.com/GrayInGlasgow/status/840292191838826496
@Pulpstar - not sure if you were serious.... there are listings of local by election results from previous years. I could write a quick function that averages the vote share each party got between Jan-April.
Nearly half of voters say they are less likely to vote Tory after the budget.
I wonder how much less likely they need to get before switching to anther party?
A fie on her, a fie.
Almost as if the Telegraph are looking for certain answers to pump up their story with.
Poshos in charge don't result in 19% polling leads IN GOVERNMENT.
Either way, it'll all blow over by next week.
Anyone who thinks that poll is bad news for the Conservatives needs to be exiled to UKIP Home for the week anyway.
Slinked back to Hornchurch and went straight to the pub, I think Arsenal bt Birmingham City that afternoon!
Lets be honest here Eagles, thats a poll that would make James Kelly blush.
I'm fairly certain Mrs May has asked Mr Trump to ensure that the TSA give me a warm welcome.
Even more exciting
http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/eng_prem/3273199.stm
Well remembered!
I wonder what the next steps will be in the Britain-EU27 story, and whether any will occur at useful times in respect of the election in France.
It looks as though there will be three TV debates before the first round of that election: on 20 March, 3 or 4 April, and 20 April. The middle one will be co-hosted by Laurence Ferrari. Is she by any chance related to Laure Ferrari, who stayed with Nigel Farage in London and who is active in Nicolas Dupont-Aignan's political party?
"Tory backbenchers are increasing pressure on Theresa May ahead of crucial votes next week, to make certain that Parliament has the final say on Britain’s future at the end of Brexit negotiations."
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/theresa-may-tory-backbencher-presurre-brexit-votes-rebels-parliament-eu-departure-final-say-mps-a7623351.html
I don't remember him using the same argument in 2010!
https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/840326265982853120
https://twitter.com/janemerrick23/status/840326525589307402