politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Maybe next time the Tories will have to emulate the GE2015 EdS
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It seems that Philip Hammond is being undermined by what looks very like at core the old-style headbanger Brexit awkward squad. Given how much Danegeld Theresa May has paid them, Kipling's poem does spring to mind.0
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My understanding is that this change is due to the ending of contracting-out (of the second state pension/SERPS as was) for defined benefit pension schemes.tlg86 said:
My pay slips for March 2016 and April 2016:Pulpstar said:
What was it before, and "after" forFreggles said:
Yes, public sector workersisam said:
Someknd posted yesterday that Osborne put up NI for some last year. Is this true?Richard_Nabavi said:It's a bit of a disaster, but a minor one in the overall scheme of things. I don't think a 2% increase for some well-paid people (which is what this is) is really going to be remembered amidst all the Brexit fallout.
1) A self employed person earning £30k.
2) An employed (Private sector) person earning £30k.
3) An employed (Public sector) person earning £30k.
March: £2,818.17 - NI: £227.49
April: £2,818.17 - NI: £257.54
The contracted out arrangements facilitated a reduced NIC in return for a smaller state pension, which was supposedly made good by the relevant defined benefit pension scheme.
In effect it is another way of getting public sector employees to pay more for their pension rights.0 -
Only 30% actually and if any do move it will be to UKIP not Labour.The point remains the NHS and social care need more funds and that had to come from somewhereAlistair said:
If the 43 percent are all in Tory marginals...HYUFD said:
The press have totally misjudged this because of self enjoyed journos, 57% back the NI rise according to SkyTheScreamingEagles said:0 -
One poll, conducted before the full details of the budget were known.HYUFD said:
The press have totally misjudged this because of self enjoyed journos, 57% back the NI rise according to SkyTheScreamingEagles said:
Let us wait for some more polling.0 -
Not happy myself. Quarterly will be a right royal pain and I don't care how many PBers write in to say, 'oh, but it will be easy, you already have all these numbers to hand" etc etc.glw said:
I somewhat agree with Daley. There's also a bit of a divide between HRMC and the gov.uk people over systems. If we are going to file quarterly returns the systems had better be top notch.rottenborough said:You probably need to insert the word "self-employed" before "commentators".
Meanwhile Janet Dailey is on the warpath about the digital tax changes and quarterly inputs.0 -
HYUFD said:
because of self enjoyed journosTheScreamingEagles said:
I hope you're not calling journalists wankers..0 -
I bow to your superior knowledge.Richard_Nabavi said:
It's not really true. What he did was end the (partial) contracting-out of NI for public sector workers, marginally reducing the massively unfair advantage which public-sector workers have over almost everyone else in their pension arrangements.isam said:Someone posted yesterday that Osborne put up NI for some last year. Is this true?
Unsurprisingly, although as you'd expect the unions were indignant about it, it was so obviously not an unfair change that the indignation didn't get much publicity, and it would be hard to argue that it was a breach of the manifesto pledge.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/george-osborne-national-insurance-wage-cuts-a6956731.html
All I would say, as an impartial observer, is they both seem reasonable and reasonably able to be sold as a non breakage or breakage depending on where you stand.
It seems Hammond and May (Remain) have hit a section of society that leans Leave... and Remainers are indignant!!0 -
Nope conducted after the budget and most voters are not self employed but want more spent on the NHS and social careTheScreamingEagles said:
One poll, conducted before the full details of the budget were known.HYUFD said:
The press have totally misjudged this because of self enjoyed journos, 57% back the NI rise according to SkyTheScreamingEagles said:
Let us wait for some more polling.0 -
Or Arsene Wenger.GIN1138 said:
What on Earth makes him think that? Nobody is "unsackable" except maybe HMQ...Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/jgforsyth/status/839815653238456322AlastairMeeks said:If he doesn't have the numbers to back his proposal (and my reading is that he doesn't), he will need to bend - or crash.
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One of The Resolution Foundation's Directors is Torsten Bell.old_labour said:Sky interviewing someone from Resolution Foundation- 96% of changes to NICs will be paid by wealthiest households.
The EdStone was Torsten's idea.0 -
Sky News- Resolution Foundation guy saying dividend changes adversely impact management consultants, lawyers etc,...0
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I voted Lib Dem last time. And Labour the time before.logical_song said:
In other words 'the party I support broke a pledge and I hope that is forgotten quickly'.ThreeQuidder said:
I didn't even realise there had been such a pledge. And I pay attention to politics! It's certainly nowhere near the iconic status that the LD tuition fees pledge had.tlg86 said:OmNICshambles, like the LDs tuition fees pledge, will be remembered
No it won't.
Sorry, you lose this game. Try again?0 -
One thing this shows is that it's much, much easier to save money by freezing things in cash terms - which can be a huge real terms cut.
eg Most benefits - ie tax credits etc - all frozen for this entire Parliament - approx a 10% real terms cut - big money for huge number of people - but media says nothing (though Corbyn goes on about it).
Whereas Mickey Mouse rise in CASH cost of self-employed NI - mass hysteria breaks out.0 -
It's not relevant that the majority of the public support the NI rise. What IS relevant is how many of those who do not support the rise are currently Tory voters whose votes might be lost.TheScreamingEagles said:
One poll, conducted before the full details of the budget were known.HYUFD said:
The press have totally misjudged this because of self enjoyed journos, 57% back the NI rise according to SkyTheScreamingEagles said:
Let us wait for some more polling.0 -
No wonder this country owes so much money....when even the smallest and progressive of tax rises is seen as the end of the world.Scott_P said:@smashmorePH: Tory MP Stephen McPartland tells @daily_politics NIC raise is "not acceptable, it cannot be allowed to proceed".
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Indeed. And how many Tory MPs also oppose it.BudG said:
It's not relevant that the majority of the public support the NI rise. What IS relevant is how many of those who do not support the rise are currently Tory voters whose votes might be lost.TheScreamingEagles said:
One poll, conducted before the full details of the budget were known.HYUFD said:
The press have totally misjudged this because of self enjoyed journos, 57% back the NI rise according to SkyTheScreamingEagles said:
Let us wait for some more polling.0 -
Far more would be lost if social care or the NHS cut or a death tax proposedBudG said:
It's not relevant that the majority of the public support the NI rise. What IS relevant is how many of those who do not support the rise are currently Tory voters whose votes might be lost.TheScreamingEagles said:
One poll, conducted before the full details of the budget were known.HYUFD said:
The press have totally misjudged this because of self enjoyed journos, 57% back the NI rise according to SkyTheScreamingEagles said:
Let us wait for some more polling.0 -
These on-the-spot polls often shift following a press barrage (not that I think the reaction to the NIC increase is justified, I don't)HYUFD said:Given the only polling on the subject has voters backing the NI increase, the Lords and Heseltine are yet again putting themselves against public opinion on Brexit and it was Cameron and Osborne's impossible manifesto commitment to hold income tax and NI rates and cut inheritance tax and increase funding for the NHS and social care which meant something had to give to say this is May's worst week in government is absurd
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F1: both times today (and yesterday) the Honda problem was electrical.
Winning races is especially hard without electricity.0 -
When put up against labours 50p tax rate and 20% wealth tax I think the answer is rather easy.BudG said:
It's not relevant that the majority of the public support the NI rise. What IS relevant is how many of those who do not support the rise are currently Tory voters whose votes might be lost.TheScreamingEagles said:
One poll, conducted before the full details of the budget were known.HYUFD said:
The press have totally misjudged this because of self enjoyed journos, 57% back the NI rise according to SkyTheScreamingEagles said:
Let us wait for some more polling.0 -
And that is why it takes so long to bring government spending back in line with tax receipts; most of the hard work is being done by inflation and general growth of the economy.MikeL said:One thing this shows is that it's much, much easier to save money by freezing things in cash terms - which can be a huge real terms cut.
eg Most benefits - ie tax credits etc - all frozen for this entire Parliament - approx a 10% real terms cut - big money for huge number of people - but media says nothing (though Corbyn goes on about it).
Whereas Mickey Mouse rise in CASH cost of self-employed NI - mass hysteria breaks out.0 -
When Osborne was confronted by Tory backbenchers upset about the tax credit cuts, he should have asked them how to come up with the required savings through other spending cuts/tax rises. Hammond should do the same here.nunu said:
No wonder this country owes so much money....when even the smallest and progressive of tax rises is seen as the end of the world.Scott_P said:@smashmorePH: Tory MP Stephen McPartland tells @daily_politics NIC raise is "not acceptable, it cannot be allowed to proceed".
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Again, Hammond is not May's placeman. Attacking him is not the same kind of "disloyalty" that Heseltine exhibited.AlastairMeeks said:It seems that Philip Hammond is being undermined by what looks very like at core the old-style headbanger Brexit awkward squad. Given how much Danegeld Theresa May has paid them, Kipling's poem does spring to mind.
I do broadly agree about the likely sense of gratitude from the headbangers, though; buying them off is a pretty dubious transaction in any but the extreme short term.0 -
No self interest from the smarmy git obviously.TheScreamingEagles said:The UK's top pension expert speaks.
https://twitter.com/stevewebb1/status/8398165222646251520 -
They won't on this as most are unaffectedBojabob said:
These on-the-spot polls often shift following a press barrage (not that I think the reaction to the NIC increase is justified, I don't)HYUFD said:Given the only polling on the subject has voters backing the NI increase, the Lords and Heseltine are yet again putting themselves against public opinion on Brexit and it was Cameron and Osborne's impossible manifesto commitment to hold income tax and NI rates and cut inheritance tax and increase funding for the NHS and social care which meant something had to give to say this is May's worst week in government is absurd
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We did not know before, and we do know now, that Mr Cameron & Mr Osborne were 100% confident that the UK would be remaining in the EU.kle4 said:So yes, the breach if upheld will be thrown in the Tories' faces; are we to believe a government has never had to face that before? We all want promises to be kept, where possible (and unworkable promises not to be made in the first place) and they may and should face consequences for that, but how severe should surely depend on how many times they break promises, for what reason, and what is the alternative offering?
Just as they made no contingency plans for a Leave vote once elected, so their earlier manifesto would not have given any thought to what might be necessary. Indeed, compared to Mr Osborne's threats of a punishment budget, Mr Hammond seems to have managed quite well so far.
Good afternoon, everyone.0 -
Brown was the master of this...We all ended up paying loads more tax but I bet most people only remember the 50p introduction and 10p removal stunts .MikeL said:One thing this shows is that it's much, much easier to save money by freezing things in cash terms - which can be a huge real terms cut.
eg Most benefits - ie tax credits etc - all frozen for this entire Parliament - approx a 10% real terms cut - big money for huge number of people - but media says nothing (though Corbyn goes on about it).
Whereas Mickey Mouse rise in CASH cost of self-employed NI - mass hysteria breaks out.0 -
Alistair said:
I see that the whole Brexit causing a collapse in support for Scottish independence is gathering pace
https://twitter.com/ReutersJamie/status/839781081964490757
Yes, despite @SeanT 's line that Brexit would destroy Sindy, I note that Yes is now favourite.
Those convinced the polling is wrong/will come back to No should snaffle up the even money available with Hills.
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/scottish-politics/scotland-to-vote-for-independence-by-end-of-20240 -
Good afternoon, Miss JGP.
Indeed, the complacency of Cameron in particular was astonishing.0 -
Theresa seems to be trying to pinch some ideas from it. I'm thinking of immigration.TheScreamingEagles said:
One of The Resolution Foundation's Directors is Torsten Bell.old_labour said:Sky interviewing someone from Resolution Foundation- 96% of changes to NICs will be paid by wealthiest households.
The EdStone was Torsten's idea.0 -
Self employed columnists weren't effected. Infact Darce and Murdoch probably loved the rise on public sector workers.isam said:
Ok, so the Tories had already reneged on a, or more to the point, this, manifesto commitment. Why the outrage this year and not last?Freggles said:
Yes, public sector workersisam said:
Someknd posted yesterday that Osborne put up NI for some last year. Is this true?Richard_Nabavi said:It's a bit of a disaster, but a minor one in the overall scheme of things. I don't think a 2% increase for some well-paid people (which is what this is) is really going to be remembered amidst all the Brexit fallout.
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And how many of them will think they'll pay less tax under Corbyn?BudG said:
It's not relevant that the majority of the public support the NI rise. What IS relevant is how many of those who do not support the rise are currently Tory voters whose votes might be lost.TheScreamingEagles said:
One poll, conducted before the full details of the budget were known.HYUFD said:
The press have totally misjudged this because of self enjoyed journos, 57% back the NI rise according to SkyTheScreamingEagles said:
Let us wait for some more polling.
Everyone knows this is peanuts compared to what Corbyn will have in store for them.
Corbyn's tax changes will impact people in a serious way that they'll really notice.0 -
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Could the government not mitigate it for low earning self employed people and make up it up by doing something that would also help the environment like levying VAT on newspapers?0
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His problem is that the NIC rise needs a separate bill – something of a self-denonating turd laid by Ozzy that perhaps the Treasury hadn't properly considered before yesterday's announcement.AlastairMeeks said:
If he doesn't have the numbers to back his proposal (and my reading is that he doesn't), he will need to bend - or crash.Pulpstar said:The government U-turning would be bad news for them. It was after Osborne u-turned on tax credits that back benchers knew they could push him around
Hammond needs to stand firm, or he WILL pay the price.
Still, as a Remainer I am not comfortable with Hammond being bullied by the Tory Right – someone, somehow needs to push them back into their box.0 -
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I consider myself a student of the tax system and yet I must admit surprise to read here that public and private sector workers paid/pay different rates of NI.nunu said:
Self employed columnists weren't effected. Infact Darce and Murdoch probably loved the rise on public sector workers.isam said:
Ok, so the Tories had already reneged on a, or more to the point, this, manifesto commitment. Why the outrage this year and not last?Freggles said:
Yes, public sector workersisam said:
Someknd posted yesterday that Osborne put up NI for some last year. Is this true?Richard_Nabavi said:It's a bit of a disaster, but a minor one in the overall scheme of things. I don't think a 2% increase for some well-paid people (which is what this is) is really going to be remembered amidst all the Brexit fallout.
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Indeed. One point I think we can all hopefully agree on though is that, at the extreme, someone living on £100K a year - whether employed or retired - should not be getting any form of Government handout. If that basic principle is accepted then the question then becomes one of where should the cut off point or taper be set.SouthamObserver said:
Yep - totally agree. As Marx nearly said about welfare and services: "From each according to his ability to pay, to each according to his needs." Of course, the key debating point is what constitutes "needs".Bojabob said:Good post from @Richard_Tyndall OPT. As is often the case with Richard, I don't agree with all of it but his views are always very cogently argued.
The key point I do agree with is this idea – that has been allowed to fester – that welfare should be a 'pay in, get out' regime. That's simply bonkers. My household income is very high compared to the average and, therefore, I pay a lot of tax, compared to the average. Do I think I should get all that back in services? No. Clearly I pay that as a mixture of a safety net and a general view that all civilised nations have a floor beneath which no citizen should be allowed to fall. Tax and welfare is a cost of running a country and an economy, not some sort of Christmas Savings Club run by HMRC.
Obviously I am of the opinion that no one earning more than the average wage should be getting handouts. Others of course will disagree but the important point first will be to establish the basic principles and educate people about the new paradigm.0 -
I'm sure Hammond has nothing to worry about. May seems the type that will laugh it off and forgive and forget.0
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HYUFD said:
They won't on this as most are unaffectedBojabob said:
These on-the-spot polls often shift following a press barrage (not that I think the reaction to the NIC increase is justified, I don't)HYUFD said:Given the only polling on the subject has voters backing the NI increase, the Lords and Heseltine are yet again putting themselves against public opinion on Brexit and it was Cameron and Osborne's impossible manifesto commitment to hold income tax and NI rates and cut inheritance tax and increase funding for the NHS and social care which meant something had to give to say this is May's worst week in government is absurd
We'll see.0 -
Was quite shocked about that one. The tax code is mad.Bojabob said:
I consider myself a student of the tax system and yet I must admit surprise to read here that public and private sector workers paid/pay different rates of NI.nunu said:
Self employed columnists weren't effected. Infact Darce and Murdoch probably loved the rise on public sector workers.isam said:
Ok, so the Tories had already reneged on a, or more to the point, this, manifesto commitment. Why the outrage this year and not last?Freggles said:
Yes, public sector workersisam said:
Someknd posted yesterday that Osborne put up NI for some last year. Is this true?Richard_Nabavi said:It's a bit of a disaster, but a minor one in the overall scheme of things. I don't think a 2% increase for some well-paid people (which is what this is) is really going to be remembered amidst all the Brexit fallout.
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Key infographic is this one I think
Prior to the last referendum I had estimated the Indy till I die tendancy and the Unionist to the core supporter at about 25% and 35% respectively. That still seems to be roughly the case.0 -
This is the wrong strategy to defeat them. Pushing them back into their box will just give them more potential to spring back on more important matters. Only through their own victories going sour can they be neutered.Bojabob said:Still, as a Remainer I am not comfortable with Hammond being bullied by the Tory Right – someone, somehow needs to push them back into their box.
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Well, quite. Somebody will always be hit by a tax rise. If it is unfair but we really want to spend the additional money, somebody come up with something else (cue '0.7% on foreign aid'), or decide that not raising it should be prioritised over whatever it was to be spent on.tlg86 said:
When Osborne was confronted by Tory backbenchers upset about the tax credit cuts, he should have asked them how to come up with the required savings through other spending cuts/tax rises. Hammond should do the same here.nunu said:
No wonder this country owes so much money....when even the smallest and progressive of tax rises is seen as the end of the world.Scott_P said:@smashmorePH: Tory MP Stephen McPartland tells @daily_politics NIC raise is "not acceptable, it cannot be allowed to proceed".
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"fiscal conservatives" LOL.tlg86 said:
When Osborne was confronted by Tory backbenchers upset about the tax credit cuts, he should have asked them how to come up with the required savings through other spending cuts/tax rises. Hammond should do the same here.nunu said:
No wonder this country owes so much money....when even the smallest and progressive of tax rises is seen as the end of the world.Scott_P said:@smashmorePH: Tory MP Stephen McPartland tells @daily_politics NIC raise is "not acceptable, it cannot be allowed to proceed".
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Against the Finland style universal payment?Richard_Tyndall said:
Indeed. One point I think we can all hopefully agree on though is that, at the extreme, someone living on £100K a year - whether employed or retired - should not be getting any form of Government handout. If that basic principle is accepted then the question then becomes one of where should the cut off point or taper be set.SouthamObserver said:
Yep - totally agree. As Marx nearly said about welfare and services: "From each according to his ability to pay, to each according to his needs." Of course, the key debating point is what constitutes "needs".Bojabob said:Good post from @Richard_Tyndall OPT. As is often the case with Richard, I don't agree with all of it but his views are always very cogently argued.
The key point I do agree with is this idea – that has been allowed to fester – that welfare should be a 'pay in, get out' regime. That's simply bonkers. My household income is very high compared to the average and, therefore, I pay a lot of tax, compared to the average. Do I think I should get all that back in services? No. Clearly I pay that as a mixture of a safety net and a general view that all civilised nations have a floor beneath which no citizen should be allowed to fall. Tax and welfare is a cost of running a country and an economy, not some sort of Christmas Savings Club run by HMRC.
Obviously I am of the opinion that no one earning more than the average wage should be getting handouts. Others of course will disagree but the important point first will be to establish the basic principles and educate people about the new paradigm.0 -
The start of the metamorphosis of Mrs May into Gordon Brown..another unelected, inert, micromanaging PM. Hammond can ask Darling for tips on being left to deal with messes.Scott_P said:0 -
Perhaps you are right.williamglenn said:
This is the wrong strategy to defeat them. Pushing them back into their box will just give them more potential to spring back on more important matters. Only through their own victories going sour can they be neutered.Bojabob said:Still, as a Remainer I am not comfortable with Hammond being bullied by the Tory Right – someone, somehow needs to push them back into their box.
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The problem with the EdStone was that five and a half of the six pledges were things that nobody on any side of the House disagreed with...old_labour said:
Theresa seems to be trying to pinch some ideas from it. I'm thinking of immigration.TheScreamingEagles said:
One of The Resolution Foundation's Directors is Torsten Bell.old_labour said:Sky interviewing someone from Resolution Foundation- 96% of changes to NICs will be paid by wealthiest households.
The EdStone was Torsten's idea.0 -
Maybe. It depends if, even if they are unaffected, people think it is unfair. A sustained enough barrage saying it is could sway opinion, but it just doesn't feel as inherently awful a proposal to justify that reaction to me, hence more focus from some on the fact it is a broken pledge than whether, in the circumstances, it was right to break that pledge.HYUFD said:
They won't on this as most are unaffectedBojabob said:
These on-the-spot polls often shift following a press barrage (not that I think the reaction to the NIC increase is justified, I don't)HYUFD said:Given the only polling on the subject has voters backing the NI increase, the Lords and Heseltine are yet again putting themselves against public opinion on Brexit and it was Cameron and Osborne's impossible manifesto commitment to hold income tax and NI rates and cut inheritance tax and increase funding for the NHS and social care which meant something had to give to say this is May's worst week in government is absurd
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Paul Goodman (@PaulGoodmanCH)
Told Treasury/No Ten didn't adequately check NIC plan against Tory Manifesto or what Ministers said in run-up to last election.
March 9, 2017
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Elsewhere almost half (48%) of voters said that, in the event of Scotland becoming independent, it should be a full member of the EU, while 27% favour an independent Scotland having full single market access outside formal membership and 17% thinking that an independent Scotland should be out of the EU altogether.
This is why Sturgeon has been hammering on about single market access I would imagine.0 -
I fail to see a path for the SNP to overturn the ~400,000 votes they lost the last referendum by if both sides are so set in their ways.Alistair said:Key infographic is this one I think
Prior to the last referendum I had estimated the Indy till I die tendancy and the Unionist to the core supporter at about 25% and 35% respectively. That still seems to be roughly the case.0 -
The mad thing for me, when I hear Tory Remainers complaining, is how much worse it could have been! We have two people from Cameron's cabinet, both Remainers, in charge... yet Leavers are ok with it and Remainers want them out!0
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The separatists need to get into the 7s to win. That's a big ask, all else being equal.Alistair said:Key infographic is this one I think
Prior to the last referendum I had estimated the Indy till I die tendancy and the Unionist to the core supporter at about 25% and 35% respectively. That still seems to be roughly the case.0 -
It is micromanaging for the PM to leave the Chancellor to sort out the budget?midwinter said:
The start of the metamorphosis of Mrs May into Gordon Brown..another unelected, inert, micromanaging PM. Hammond can ask Darling for tips on being left to deal with messes.Scott_P said:
Run that by me again please.0 -
The political ramifications will be minimal I think, but this is certainly the day that the Brexit Right lost its innocence. Until then every grievance was easily outsourced to the EU, the ruling classes or the media. (Indeed, some defenders of the NI hike have gone all Trump and claimed that it's just fake news promulgated by peeved freelance journalists.) It is slowly dawning on the Brexit Right that the seat of power can be a lonely and unforgiving place.0
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EEA/EFTA Scotland is the sweet spot.Alistair said:Elsewhere almost half (48%) of voters said that, in the event of Scotland becoming independent, it should be a full member of the EU, while 27% favour an independent Scotland having full single market access outside formal membership and 17% thinking that an independent Scotland should be out of the EU altogether.
This is why Sturgeon has been hammering on about single market access I would imagine.0 -
What do you mean, 'get into the 7s'?ThreeQuidder said:
The separatists need to get into the 7s to win. That's a big ask, all else being equal.Alistair said:Key infographic is this one I think
Prior to the last referendum I had estimated the Indy till I die tendancy and the Unionist to the core supporter at about 25% and 35% respectively. That still seems to be roughly the case.0 -
It's not costing self-employed up to £16k anything anyway (!)old_labour said:Could the government not mitigate it for low earning self employed people and make up it up by doing something that would also help the environment like levying VAT on newspapers?
They gain more from Class 2 NIC abolition than they lose from Class 4 NIC rise.0 -
We will inevitably be imposing border controls and customs duties at Berwick if the Scots choose independence given we are leaving the single market to control immigrationBojabob said:0 -
Since when were Phil Hammond and Theresa May "the Brexit Right"?Stark_Dawning said:The political ramifications will be minimal I think, but this is certainly the day that the Brexit Right lost its innocence. Until then every grievance was easily outsourced to the EU, the ruling classes or the media. (Indeed, some defenders of the NI hike have gone all Trump and claimed that it's just fake news promulgated by peeved freelance journalists.) It is slowly dawning on the Brexit Right that the seat of power can be a lonely and unforgiving place.
If Michael Gove were Boris Johnson's Chancellor you might have a semblance of a point.0 -
It's not all about Remain and Leave tbh. More that Tessie seems to want to play with the headbangers.isam said:The mad thing for me, when I hear Tory Remainers complaining, is how much worse it could have been! We have two people from Cameron's cabinet, both Remainers, in charge... yet Leavers are ok with it and Remainers want them out!
And some may remember her lack of support and carefully orchestrated interventions during the Referendum of course.0 -
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Blimey.williamglenn said:No evidence of Fillon stabilising here.
https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/8398168242754805780 -
I wonder if IDS sees May and Hammond as a pair of cuckoos in the Brexit nest. I think they've been quite 'hard Brexit' myself, but perhaps they don't meet IDS's exacting standards. Will IDS decide to install some new, more suitable candidates?Scott_P said:0 -
That depends on job losses through automationisam said:
Against the Finland style universal payment?Richard_Tyndall said:
Indeed. One point I think we can all hopefully agree on though is that, at the extreme, someone living on £100K a year - whether employed or retired - should not be getting any form of Government handout. If that basic principle is accepted then the question then becomes one of where should the cut off point or taper be set.SouthamObserver said:
Yep - totally agree. As Marx nearly said about welfare and services: "From each according to his ability to pay, to each according to his needs." Of course, the key debating point is what constitutes "needs".Bojabob said:Good post from @Richard_Tyndall OPT. As is often the case with Richard, I don't agree with all of it but his views are always very cogently argued.
The key point I do agree with is this idea – that has been allowed to fester – that welfare should be a 'pay in, get out' regime. That's simply bonkers. My household income is very high compared to the average and, therefore, I pay a lot of tax, compared to the average. Do I think I should get all that back in services? No. Clearly I pay that as a mixture of a safety net and a general view that all civilised nations have a floor beneath which no citizen should be allowed to fall. Tax and welfare is a cost of running a country and an economy, not some sort of Christmas Savings Club run by HMRC.
Obviously I am of the opinion that no one earning more than the average wage should be getting handouts. Others of course will disagree but the important point first will be to establish the basic principles and educate people about the new paradigm.0 -
I was trying to be flippant.MikeL said:
It's not costing self-employed up to £16k anything anyway (!)old_labour said:Could the government not mitigate it for low earning self employed people and make up it up by doing something that would also help the environment like levying VAT on newspapers?
They gain more from Class 2 NIC abolition than they lose from Class 4 NIC rise.0 -
If they back down, they obviously find some of money by cancelling the abolition of Class 2 NI.
But that only finds some of the money.0 -
I have not been a great fan of May's style since she became PM, but if she holds firm on this issue I will gain more appreciation of her - the outrage simply doesn't seem to match the crime here, for all, yes, it breaks a manifesto promise, and backing down seems unwarranted.0
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I suspect their ire is more with Hammond than May.Stark_Dawning said:
I wonder if IDS sees May and Hammond as a pair of cuckoos in the Brexit nest. I think they've been quite 'hard Brexit' myself, but perhaps they don't meet IDS's exacting standards. Will IDS decide to install some new, more suitable candidates?Scott_P said:0 -
If I was Hammond I would say I will scrap the hike and keep all Cameron and Osborne commitments against tax rises, then say he will also slash spending on the NHS and social care and make backbench NIC rebels the key spokesmen for the Tories on the new cutskle4 said:
Maybe. It depends if, even if they are unaffected, people think it is unfair. A sustained enough barrage saying it is could sway opinion, but it just doesn't feel as inherently awful a proposal to justify that reaction to me, hence more focus from some on the fact it is a broken pledge than whether, in the circumstances, it was right to break that pledge.HYUFD said:
They won't on this as most are unaffectedBojabob said:
These on-the-spot polls often shift following a press barrage (not that I think the reaction to the NIC increase is justified, I don't)HYUFD said:Given the only polling on the subject has voters backing the NI increase, the Lords and Heseltine are yet again putting themselves against public opinion on Brexit and it was Cameron and Osborne's impossible manifesto commitment to hold income tax and NI rates and cut inheritance tax and increase funding for the NHS and social care which meant something had to give to say this is May's worst week in government is absurd
0 -
The "headbangers" are the ordinary Conservative voters. Theresa May is in touch with them in a way that her predecessor wasn't.midwinter said:
It's not all about Remain and Leave tbh. More that Tessie seems to want to play with the headbangers.isam said:The mad thing for me, when I hear Tory Remainers complaining, is how much worse it could have been! We have two people from Cameron's cabinet, both Remainers, in charge... yet Leavers are ok with it and Remainers want them out!
And some may remember her lack of support and carefully orchestrated interventions during the Referendum of course.0 -
Ordinary Tory voters are headbangers?Sean_F said:
The "headbangers" are the ordinary Conservative voters. Theresa May is in touch with them in a way that her predecessor wasn't.midwinter said:
It's not all about Remain and Leave tbh. More that Tessie seems to want to play with the headbangers.isam said:The mad thing for me, when I hear Tory Remainers complaining, is how much worse it could have been! We have two people from Cameron's cabinet, both Remainers, in charge... yet Leavers are ok with it and Remainers want them out!
And some may remember her lack of support and carefully orchestrated interventions during the Referendum of course.0 -
That's what is so stupid about the moaning. Most self employed people will be better off.MikeL said:
It's not costing self-employed up to £16k anything anyway (!)old_labour said:Could the government not mitigate it for low earning self employed people and make up it up by doing something that would also help the environment like levying VAT on newspapers?
They gain more from Class 2 NIC abolition than they lose from Class 4 NIC rise.0 -
Hence, the inverted commas. This is a very standard Conservative government, not a hard-right government.Bojabob said:
Ordinary Tory voters are headbangers?Sean_F said:
The "headbangers" are the ordinary Conservative voters. Theresa May is in touch with them in a way that her predecessor wasn't.midwinter said:
It's not all about Remain and Leave tbh. More that Tessie seems to want to play with the headbangers.isam said:The mad thing for me, when I hear Tory Remainers complaining, is how much worse it could have been! We have two people from Cameron's cabinet, both Remainers, in charge... yet Leavers are ok with it and Remainers want them out!
And some may remember her lack of support and carefully orchestrated interventions during the Referendum of course.0 -
Yeah, but not journos, lawyers, management consultants and their ilk.glw said:
That's what is so stupid about the moaning. Most self employed people will be better off.MikeL said:
It's not costing self-employed up to £16k anything anyway (!)old_labour said:Could the government not mitigate it for low earning self employed people and make up it up by doing something that would also help the environment like levying VAT on newspapers?
They gain more from Class 2 NIC abolition than they lose from Class 4 NIC rise.0 -
A very standard Conservative government implementing a key part of Michael Foot's manifesto?Sean_F said:
Hence, the inverted commas. This is a very standard Conservative government, not a hard-right government.Bojabob said:
Ordinary Tory voters are headbangers?Sean_F said:
The "headbangers" are the ordinary Conservative voters. Theresa May is in touch with them in a way that her predecessor wasn't.midwinter said:
It's not all about Remain and Leave tbh. More that Tessie seems to want to play with the headbangers.isam said:The mad thing for me, when I hear Tory Remainers complaining, is how much worse it could have been! We have two people from Cameron's cabinet, both Remainers, in charge... yet Leavers are ok with it and Remainers want them out!
And some may remember her lack of support and carefully orchestrated interventions during the Referendum of course.0 -
On the scale 50% of voters are at 7 or above.Bojabob said:
What do you mean, 'get into the 7s'?ThreeQuidder said:
The separatists need to get into the 7s to win. That's a big ask, all else being equal.Alistair said:Key infographic is this one I think
Prior to the last referendum I had estimated the Indy till I die tendancy and the Unionist to the core supporter at about 25% and 35% respectively. That still seems to be roughly the case.0 -
How can two polls published on the same day be so different?tlg86 said:
Blimey.williamglenn said:No evidence of Fillon stabilising here.
https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/839816824275480578
Opinionway has it 62-38 and Ipsos 55-45
The 7 point change can be explained because their previous head to head poll took place on 20th January, before the Filon scandal hit.0 -
Indeed she's still happily driving the Tory party up an ideological dead end road with IDS in the passenger seat exhorting her to greater speed. Going to be an almighty crash at some point.old_labour said:
I suspect their ire is more with Hammond than May.Stark_Dawning said:
I wonder if IDS sees May and Hammond as a pair of cuckoos in the Brexit nest. I think they've been quite 'hard Brexit' myself, but perhaps they don't meet IDS's exacting standards. Will IDS decide to install some new, more suitable candidates?Scott_P said:0 -
Back in the day, the Conservative Party supported rationing. Times, and political circumstances, change.williamglenn said:
A very standard Conservative government implementing a key part of Michael Foot's manifesto?Sean_F said:
Hence, the inverted commas. This is a very standard Conservative government, not a hard-right government.Bojabob said:
Ordinary Tory voters are headbangers?Sean_F said:
The "headbangers" are the ordinary Conservative voters. Theresa May is in touch with them in a way that her predecessor wasn't.midwinter said:
It's not all about Remain and Leave tbh. More that Tessie seems to want to play with the headbangers.isam said:The mad thing for me, when I hear Tory Remainers complaining, is how much worse it could have been! We have two people from Cameron's cabinet, both Remainers, in charge... yet Leavers are ok with it and Remainers want them out!
And some may remember her lack of support and carefully orchestrated interventions during the Referendum of course.0 -
First new UK pumped hydro scheme for 30 years given go-ahead
https://www.theengineer.co.uk/first-new-uk-pumped-hydro-scheme-for-30-years-given-go-ahead/?cmpid=tenews_31795380 -
Rationing was a temporary policy. As I'm sure withdrawal from the EU is a temporary policy to appease a confused party and a fatigued electorate...Sean_F said:
Back in the day, the Conservative Party supported rationing. Times, and political circumstances, change.williamglenn said:
A very standard Conservative government implementing a key part of Michael Foot's manifesto?Sean_F said:
Hence, the inverted commas. This is a very standard Conservative government, not a hard-right government.Bojabob said:
Ordinary Tory voters are headbangers?Sean_F said:
The "headbangers" are the ordinary Conservative voters. Theresa May is in touch with them in a way that her predecessor wasn't.midwinter said:
It's not all about Remain and Leave tbh. More that Tessie seems to want to play with the headbangers.isam said:The mad thing for me, when I hear Tory Remainers complaining, is how much worse it could have been! We have two people from Cameron's cabinet, both Remainers, in charge... yet Leavers are ok with it and Remainers want them out!
And some may remember her lack of support and carefully orchestrated interventions during the Referendum of course.0 -
If Fillon is only 55-45 ahead of Le Pen heading into round 2, well he doesn't make it into round 2.BudG said:
How can two polls published on the same day be so different?tlg86 said:
Blimey.williamglenn said:No evidence of Fillon stabilising here.
https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/839816824275480578
Opinionway has it 62-38 and Ipsos 55-45
The 7 point change can be explained because their previous head to head poll took place on 20th January, before the Filon scandal hit.
BOTH Macron & Fillon need to implode for Le Pen to have a chance. This offers some protection of value when laying her out.0 -
Disagree. She might be in touch with the members in a way Cameron wasn't. Tory inclined floating voters not so much. They'll stick with the Tories currently because there's no viable alternative and because of the perception of competence. That could change very quickly.Sean_F said:
The "headbangers" are the ordinary Conservative voters. Theresa May is in touch with them in a way that her predecessor wasn't.midwinter said:
It's not all about Remain and Leave tbh. More that Tessie seems to want to play with the headbangers.isam said:The mad thing for me, when I hear Tory Remainers complaining, is how much worse it could have been! We have two people from Cameron's cabinet, both Remainers, in charge... yet Leavers are ok with it and Remainers want them out!
And some may remember her lack of support and carefully orchestrated interventions during the Referendum of course.0 -
Michael Foot preceded Delors.williamglenn said:
A very standard Conservative government implementing a key part of Michael Foot's manifesto?Sean_F said:
Hence, the inverted commas. This is a very standard Conservative government, not a hard-right government.Bojabob said:
Ordinary Tory voters are headbangers?Sean_F said:
The "headbangers" are the ordinary Conservative voters. Theresa May is in touch with them in a way that her predecessor wasn't.midwinter said:
It's not all about Remain and Leave tbh. More that Tessie seems to want to play with the headbangers.isam said:The mad thing for me, when I hear Tory Remainers complaining, is how much worse it could have been! We have two people from Cameron's cabinet, both Remainers, in charge... yet Leavers are ok with it and Remainers want them out!
And some may remember her lack of support and carefully orchestrated interventions during the Referendum of course.
As a great mind is said to have once said "When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?"0 -
One thing’s for sure Cameron/Osborne would not have made this mistake.
Really?
The title 'Omnishambles' budget comes from the first of Osborne's two disastrous budgets.
So bad I think it gave Ed Miliband quite a lift.0 -
7-10 are unionist divisions. Do you/he mean 1-4?Alistair said:
On the scale 50% of voters are at 7 or above.Bojabob said:
What do you mean, 'get into the 7s'?ThreeQuidder said:
The separatists need to get into the 7s to win. That's a big ask, all else being equal.Alistair said:Key infographic is this one I think
Prior to the last referendum I had estimated the Indy till I die tendancy and the Unionist to the core supporter at about 25% and 35% respectively. That still seems to be roughly the case.0 -
What if you're laying her in instead of out?Pulpstar said:
If Fillon is only 55-45 ahead of Le Pen heading into round 2, well he doesn't make it into round 2.BudG said:
How can two polls published on the same day be so different?tlg86 said:
Blimey.williamglenn said:No evidence of Fillon stabilising here.
https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/839816824275480578
Opinionway has it 62-38 and Ipsos 55-45
The 7 point change can be explained because their previous head to head poll took place on 20th January, before the Filon scandal hit.
BOTH Macron & Fillon need to implode for Le Pen to have a chance. This offers some protection of value when laying her out.0 -
Mike is wrong here,Bill_Quango said:One thing’s for sure Cameron/Osborne would not have made this mistake.
TAX CREDITS.
0 -
They only lost a referendum.Bill_Quango said:One thing’s for sure Cameron/Osborne would not have made this mistake.
Really?
The title 'Omnishambles' budget comes from the first of Osborne's two disastrous budgets.
So bad I think it gave Ed Miliband quite a lift.0 -
Hmmm. I always associate "headbangers" with an identifiable subsection of the Tory parliamentary party. In another age, they would be the "b*stards".Sean_F said:
Hence, the inverted commas. This is a very standard Conservative government, not a hard-right government.Bojabob said:
Ordinary Tory voters are headbangers?Sean_F said:
The "headbangers" are the ordinary Conservative voters. Theresa May is in touch with them in a way that her predecessor wasn't.midwinter said:
It's not all about Remain and Leave tbh. More that Tessie seems to want to play with the headbangers.isam said:The mad thing for me, when I hear Tory Remainers complaining, is how much worse it could have been! We have two people from Cameron's cabinet, both Remainers, in charge... yet Leavers are ok with it and Remainers want them out!
And some may remember her lack of support and carefully orchestrated interventions during the Referendum of course.0 -
But sealed their place in historyold_labour said:
They only lost a referendum.Bill_Quango said:One thing’s for sure Cameron/Osborne would not have made this mistake.
Really?
The title 'Omnishambles' budget comes from the first of Osborne's two disastrous budgets.
So bad I think it gave Ed Miliband quite a lift.0 -
Nigel Farage Just Visited The Ecuadorian Embassy In London
Asked by BuzzFeed News if he'd been visiting Julian Assange, the former UKIP leader said he couldn't remember what he'd been doing in the building.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/marieleconte/wait-what?utm_term=.ns2VB7Oa7#.oqYxgRanR0 -
The first round figures from this Ipsos poll are, according to this article linked below are:Pulpstar said:
If Fillon is only 55-45 ahead of Le Pen heading into round 2, well he doesn't make it into round 2.BudG said:
How can two polls published on the same day be so different?tlg86 said:
Blimey.williamglenn said:No evidence of Fillon stabilising here.
https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/839816824275480578
Opinionway has it 62-38 and Ipsos 55-45
The 7 point change can be explained because their previous head to head poll took place on 20th January, before the Filon scandal hit.
BOTH Macron & Fillon need to implode for Le Pen to have a chance. This offers some protection of value when laying her out.
Le Pen 27
Macron 23 (down 2)
Fillon 19.5 (up 2)
http://www.lepoint.fr/politique/emmanuel-berretta/ipsos-fillon-reprend-du-poil-de-la-bete-09-03-2017-2110489_1897.php0 -
How bizarre that every one of the PM, Loto and Chancellor shares either a surname or a given name with a member of the former Top Gear trio.midwinter said:
Indeed she's still happily driving the Tory party up an ideological dead end road with IDS in the passenger seat exhorting her to greater speed. Going to be an almighty crash at some point.old_labour said:
I suspect their ire is more with Hammond than May.Stark_Dawning said:
I wonder if IDS sees May and Hammond as a pair of cuckoos in the Brexit nest. I think they've been quite 'hard Brexit' myself, but perhaps they don't meet IDS's exacting standards. Will IDS decide to install some new, more suitable candidates?Scott_P said:0
