It seems that Philip Hammond is being undermined by what looks very like at core the old-style headbanger Brexit awkward squad. Given how much Danegeld Theresa May has paid them, Kipling's poem does spring to mind.
It's a bit of a disaster, but a minor one in the overall scheme of things. I don't think a 2% increase for some well-paid people (which is what this is) is really going to be remembered amidst all the Brexit fallout.
Someknd posted yesterday that Osborne put up NI for some last year. Is this true?
Yes, public sector workers
What was it before, and "after" for
1) A self employed person earning £30k. 2) An employed (Private sector) person earning £30k. 3) An employed (Public sector) person earning £30k.
My understanding is that this change is due to the ending of contracting-out (of the second state pension/SERPS as was) for defined benefit pension schemes.
The contracted out arrangements facilitated a reduced NIC in return for a smaller state pension, which was supposedly made good by the relevant defined benefit pension scheme.
In effect it is another way of getting public sector employees to pay more for their pension rights.
The press have totally misjudged this because of self enjoyed journos, 57% back the NI rise according to Sky
If the 43 percent are all in Tory marginals...
Only 30% actually and if any do move it will be to UKIP not Labour.The point remains the NHS and social care need more funds and that had to come from somewhere
You probably need to insert the word "self-employed" before "commentators".
Meanwhile Janet Dailey is on the warpath about the digital tax changes and quarterly inputs.
I somewhat agree with Daley. There's also a bit of a divide between HRMC and the gov.uk people over systems. If we are going to file quarterly returns the systems had better be top notch.
Not happy myself. Quarterly will be a right royal pain and I don't care how many PBers write in to say, 'oh, but it will be easy, you already have all these numbers to hand" etc etc.
Someone posted yesterday that Osborne put up NI for some last year. Is this true?
It's not really true. What he did was end the (partial) contracting-out of NI for public sector workers, marginally reducing the massively unfair advantage which public-sector workers have over almost everyone else in their pension arrangements.
Unsurprisingly, although as you'd expect the unions were indignant about it, it was so obviously not an unfair change that the indignation didn't get much publicity, and it would be hard to argue that it was a breach of the manifesto pledge.
All I would say, as an impartial observer, is they both seem reasonable and reasonably able to be sold as a non breakage or breakage depending on where you stand.
It seems Hammond and May (Remain) have hit a section of society that leans Leave... and Remainers are indignant!!
OmNICshambles, like the LDs tuition fees pledge, will be remembered
No it won't.
I didn't even realise there had been such a pledge. And I pay attention to politics! It's certainly nowhere near the iconic status that the LD tuition fees pledge had.
In other words 'the party I support broke a pledge and I hope that is forgotten quickly'.
I voted Lib Dem last time. And Labour the time before.
One thing this shows is that it's much, much easier to save money by freezing things in cash terms - which can be a huge real terms cut.
eg Most benefits - ie tax credits etc - all frozen for this entire Parliament - approx a 10% real terms cut - big money for huge number of people - but media says nothing (though Corbyn goes on about it).
Whereas Mickey Mouse rise in CASH cost of self-employed NI - mass hysteria breaks out.
The press have totally misjudged this because of self enjoyed journos, 57% back the NI rise according to Sky
One poll, conducted before the full details of the budget were known.
Let us wait for some more polling.
It's not relevant that the majority of the public support the NI rise. What IS relevant is how many of those who do not support the rise are currently Tory voters whose votes might be lost.
The press have totally misjudged this because of self enjoyed journos, 57% back the NI rise according to Sky
One poll, conducted before the full details of the budget were known.
Let us wait for some more polling.
It's not relevant that the majority of the public support the NI rise. What IS relevant is how many of those who do not support the rise are currently Tory voters whose votes might be lost.
The press have totally misjudged this because of self enjoyed journos, 57% back the NI rise according to Sky
One poll, conducted before the full details of the budget were known.
Let us wait for some more polling.
It's not relevant that the majority of the public support the NI rise. What IS relevant is how many of those who do not support the rise are currently Tory voters whose votes might be lost.
Far more would be lost if social care or the NHS cut or a death tax proposed
Given the only polling on the subject has voters backing the NI increase, the Lords and Heseltine are yet again putting themselves against public opinion on Brexit and it was Cameron and Osborne's impossible manifesto commitment to hold income tax and NI rates and cut inheritance tax and increase funding for the NHS and social care which meant something had to give to say this is May's worst week in government is absurd
These on-the-spot polls often shift following a press barrage (not that I think the reaction to the NIC increase is justified, I don't)
The press have totally misjudged this because of self enjoyed journos, 57% back the NI rise according to Sky
One poll, conducted before the full details of the budget were known.
Let us wait for some more polling.
It's not relevant that the majority of the public support the NI rise. What IS relevant is how many of those who do not support the rise are currently Tory voters whose votes might be lost.
When put up against labours 50p tax rate and 20% wealth tax I think the answer is rather easy.
One thing this shows is that it's much, much easier to save money by freezing things in cash terms - which can be a huge real terms cut.
eg Most benefits - ie tax credits etc - all frozen for this entire Parliament - approx a 10% real terms cut - big money for huge number of people - but media says nothing (though Corbyn goes on about it).
Whereas Mickey Mouse rise in CASH cost of self-employed NI - mass hysteria breaks out.
And that is why it takes so long to bring government spending back in line with tax receipts; most of the hard work is being done by inflation and general growth of the economy.
@smashmorePH: Tory MP Stephen McPartland tells @daily_politics NIC raise is "not acceptable, it cannot be allowed to proceed".
No wonder this country owes so much money....when even the smallest and progressive of tax rises is seen as the end of the world.
When Osborne was confronted by Tory backbenchers upset about the tax credit cuts, he should have asked them how to come up with the required savings through other spending cuts/tax rises. Hammond should do the same here.
It seems that Philip Hammond is being undermined by what looks very like at core the old-style headbanger Brexit awkward squad. Given how much Danegeld Theresa May has paid them, Kipling's poem does spring to mind.
Again, Hammond is not May's placeman. Attacking him is not the same kind of "disloyalty" that Heseltine exhibited.
I do broadly agree about the likely sense of gratitude from the headbangers, though; buying them off is a pretty dubious transaction in any but the extreme short term.
Given the only polling on the subject has voters backing the NI increase, the Lords and Heseltine are yet again putting themselves against public opinion on Brexit and it was Cameron and Osborne's impossible manifesto commitment to hold income tax and NI rates and cut inheritance tax and increase funding for the NHS and social care which meant something had to give to say this is May's worst week in government is absurd
These on-the-spot polls often shift following a press barrage (not that I think the reaction to the NIC increase is justified, I don't)
So yes, the breach if upheld will be thrown in the Tories' faces; are we to believe a government has never had to face that before? We all want promises to be kept, where possible (and unworkable promises not to be made in the first place) and they may and should face consequences for that, but how severe should surely depend on how many times they break promises, for what reason, and what is the alternative offering?
We did not know before, and we do know now, that Mr Cameron & Mr Osborne were 100% confident that the UK would be remaining in the EU.
Just as they made no contingency plans for a Leave vote once elected, so their earlier manifesto would not have given any thought to what might be necessary. Indeed, compared to Mr Osborne's threats of a punishment budget, Mr Hammond seems to have managed quite well so far.
One thing this shows is that it's much, much easier to save money by freezing things in cash terms - which can be a huge real terms cut.
eg Most benefits - ie tax credits etc - all frozen for this entire Parliament - approx a 10% real terms cut - big money for huge number of people - but media says nothing (though Corbyn goes on about it).
Whereas Mickey Mouse rise in CASH cost of self-employed NI - mass hysteria breaks out.
Brown was the master of this...We all ended up paying loads more tax but I bet most people only remember the 50p introduction and 10p removal stunts .
It's a bit of a disaster, but a minor one in the overall scheme of things. I don't think a 2% increase for some well-paid people (which is what this is) is really going to be remembered amidst all the Brexit fallout.
Someknd posted yesterday that Osborne put up NI for some last year. Is this true?
Yes, public sector workers
Ok, so the Tories had already reneged on a, or more to the point, this, manifesto commitment. Why the outrage this year and not last?
Self employed columnists weren't effected. Infact Darce and Murdoch probably loved the rise on public sector workers.
The press have totally misjudged this because of self enjoyed journos, 57% back the NI rise according to Sky
One poll, conducted before the full details of the budget were known.
Let us wait for some more polling.
It's not relevant that the majority of the public support the NI rise. What IS relevant is how many of those who do not support the rise are currently Tory voters whose votes might be lost.
And how many of them will think they'll pay less tax under Corbyn?
Everyone knows this is peanuts compared to what Corbyn will have in store for them.
Corbyn's tax changes will impact people in a serious way that they'll really notice.
Could the government not mitigate it for low earning self employed people and make up it up by doing something that would also help the environment like levying VAT on newspapers?
The government U-turning would be bad news for them. It was after Osborne u-turned on tax credits that back benchers knew they could push him around
Hammond needs to stand firm, or he WILL pay the price.
If he doesn't have the numbers to back his proposal (and my reading is that he doesn't), he will need to bend - or crash.
His problem is that the NIC rise needs a separate bill – something of a self-denonating turd laid by Ozzy that perhaps the Treasury hadn't properly considered before yesterday's announcement.
Still, as a Remainer I am not comfortable with Hammond being bullied by the Tory Right – someone, somehow needs to push them back into their box.
It's a bit of a disaster, but a minor one in the overall scheme of things. I don't think a 2% increase for some well-paid people (which is what this is) is really going to be remembered amidst all the Brexit fallout.
Someknd posted yesterday that Osborne put up NI for some last year. Is this true?
Yes, public sector workers
Ok, so the Tories had already reneged on a, or more to the point, this, manifesto commitment. Why the outrage this year and not last?
Self employed columnists weren't effected. Infact Darce and Murdoch probably loved the rise on public sector workers.
I consider myself a student of the tax system and yet I must admit surprise to read here that public and private sector workers paid/pay different rates of NI.
Good post from @Richard_Tyndall OPT. As is often the case with Richard, I don't agree with all of it but his views are always very cogently argued.
The key point I do agree with is this idea – that has been allowed to fester – that welfare should be a 'pay in, get out' regime. That's simply bonkers. My household income is very high compared to the average and, therefore, I pay a lot of tax, compared to the average. Do I think I should get all that back in services? No. Clearly I pay that as a mixture of a safety net and a general view that all civilised nations have a floor beneath which no citizen should be allowed to fall. Tax and welfare is a cost of running a country and an economy, not some sort of Christmas Savings Club run by HMRC.
Yep - totally agree. As Marx nearly said about welfare and services: "From each according to his ability to pay, to each according to his needs." Of course, the key debating point is what constitutes "needs".
Indeed. One point I think we can all hopefully agree on though is that, at the extreme, someone living on £100K a year - whether employed or retired - should not be getting any form of Government handout. If that basic principle is accepted then the question then becomes one of where should the cut off point or taper be set.
Obviously I am of the opinion that no one earning more than the average wage should be getting handouts. Others of course will disagree but the important point first will be to establish the basic principles and educate people about the new paradigm.
Given the only polling on the subject has voters backing the NI increase, the Lords and Heseltine are yet again putting themselves against public opinion on Brexit and it was Cameron and Osborne's impossible manifesto commitment to hold income tax and NI rates and cut inheritance tax and increase funding for the NHS and social care which meant something had to give to say this is May's worst week in government is absurd
These on-the-spot polls often shift following a press barrage (not that I think the reaction to the NIC increase is justified, I don't)
It's a bit of a disaster, but a minor one in the overall scheme of things. I don't think a 2% increase for some well-paid people (which is what this is) is really going to be remembered amidst all the Brexit fallout.
Someknd posted yesterday that Osborne put up NI for some last year. Is this true?
Yes, public sector workers
Ok, so the Tories had already reneged on a, or more to the point, this, manifesto commitment. Why the outrage this year and not last?
Self employed columnists weren't effected. Infact Darce and Murdoch probably loved the rise on public sector workers.
I consider myself a student of the tax system and yet I must admit surprise to read here that public and private sector workers paid/pay different rates of NI.
Was quite shocked about that one. The tax code is mad.
Prior to the last referendum I had estimated the Indy till I die tendancy and the Unionist to the core supporter at about 25% and 35% respectively. That still seems to be roughly the case.
Still, as a Remainer I am not comfortable with Hammond being bullied by the Tory Right – someone, somehow needs to push them back into their box.
This is the wrong strategy to defeat them. Pushing them back into their box will just give them more potential to spring back on more important matters. Only through their own victories going sour can they be neutered.
@smashmorePH: Tory MP Stephen McPartland tells @daily_politics NIC raise is "not acceptable, it cannot be allowed to proceed".
No wonder this country owes so much money....when even the smallest and progressive of tax rises is seen as the end of the world.
When Osborne was confronted by Tory backbenchers upset about the tax credit cuts, he should have asked them how to come up with the required savings through other spending cuts/tax rises. Hammond should do the same here.
Well, quite. Somebody will always be hit by a tax rise. If it is unfair but we really want to spend the additional money, somebody come up with something else (cue '0.7% on foreign aid'), or decide that not raising it should be prioritised over whatever it was to be spent on.
@smashmorePH: Tory MP Stephen McPartland tells @daily_politics NIC raise is "not acceptable, it cannot be allowed to proceed".
No wonder this country owes so much money....when even the smallest and progressive of tax rises is seen as the end of the world.
When Osborne was confronted by Tory backbenchers upset about the tax credit cuts, he should have asked them how to come up with the required savings through other spending cuts/tax rises. Hammond should do the same here.
Good post from @Richard_Tyndall OPT. As is often the case with Richard, I don't agree with all of it but his views are always very cogently argued.
The key point I do agree with is this idea – that has been allowed to fester – that welfare should be a 'pay in, get out' regime. That's simply bonkers. My household income is very high compared to the average and, therefore, I pay a lot of tax, compared to the average. Do I think I should get all that back in services? No. Clearly I pay that as a mixture of a safety net and a general view that all civilised nations have a floor beneath which no citizen should be allowed to fall. Tax and welfare is a cost of running a country and an economy, not some sort of Christmas Savings Club run by HMRC.
Yep - totally agree. As Marx nearly said about welfare and services: "From each according to his ability to pay, to each according to his needs." Of course, the key debating point is what constitutes "needs".
Indeed. One point I think we can all hopefully agree on though is that, at the extreme, someone living on £100K a year - whether employed or retired - should not be getting any form of Government handout. If that basic principle is accepted then the question then becomes one of where should the cut off point or taper be set.
Obviously I am of the opinion that no one earning more than the average wage should be getting handouts. Others of course will disagree but the important point first will be to establish the basic principles and educate people about the new paradigm.
The start of the metamorphosis of Mrs May into Gordon Brown..another unelected, inert, micromanaging PM. Hammond can ask Darling for tips on being left to deal with messes.
Still, as a Remainer I am not comfortable with Hammond being bullied by the Tory Right – someone, somehow needs to push them back into their box.
This is the wrong strategy to defeat them. Pushing them back into their box will just give them more potential to spring back on more important matters. Only through their own victories going sour can they be neutered.
Given the only polling on the subject has voters backing the NI increase, the Lords and Heseltine are yet again putting themselves against public opinion on Brexit and it was Cameron and Osborne's impossible manifesto commitment to hold income tax and NI rates and cut inheritance tax and increase funding for the NHS and social care which meant something had to give to say this is May's worst week in government is absurd
These on-the-spot polls often shift following a press barrage (not that I think the reaction to the NIC increase is justified, I don't)
They won't on this as most are unaffected
Maybe. It depends if, even if they are unaffected, people think it is unfair. A sustained enough barrage saying it is could sway opinion, but it just doesn't feel as inherently awful a proposal to justify that reaction to me, hence more focus from some on the fact it is a broken pledge than whether, in the circumstances, it was right to break that pledge.
Elsewhere almost half (48%) of voters said that, in the event of Scotland becoming independent, it should be a full member of the EU, while 27% favour an independent Scotland having full single market access outside formal membership and 17% thinking that an independent Scotland should be out of the EU altogether.
This is why Sturgeon has been hammering on about single market access I would imagine.
Prior to the last referendum I had estimated the Indy till I die tendancy and the Unionist to the core supporter at about 25% and 35% respectively. That still seems to be roughly the case.
I fail to see a path for the SNP to overturn the ~400,000 votes they lost the last referendum by if both sides are so set in their ways.
The mad thing for me, when I hear Tory Remainers complaining, is how much worse it could have been! We have two people from Cameron's cabinet, both Remainers, in charge... yet Leavers are ok with it and Remainers want them out!
Prior to the last referendum I had estimated the Indy till I die tendancy and the Unionist to the core supporter at about 25% and 35% respectively. That still seems to be roughly the case.
The separatists need to get into the 7s to win. That's a big ask, all else being equal.
The start of the metamorphosis of Mrs May into Gordon Brown..another unelected, inert, micromanaging PM. Hammond can ask Darling for tips on being left to deal with messes.
It is micromanaging for the PM to leave the Chancellor to sort out the budget?
The political ramifications will be minimal I think, but this is certainly the day that the Brexit Right lost its innocence. Until then every grievance was easily outsourced to the EU, the ruling classes or the media. (Indeed, some defenders of the NI hike have gone all Trump and claimed that it's just fake news promulgated by peeved freelance journalists.) It is slowly dawning on the Brexit Right that the seat of power can be a lonely and unforgiving place.
Elsewhere almost half (48%) of voters said that, in the event of Scotland becoming independent, it should be a full member of the EU, while 27% favour an independent Scotland having full single market access outside formal membership and 17% thinking that an independent Scotland should be out of the EU altogether.
This is why Sturgeon has been hammering on about single market access I would imagine.
Prior to the last referendum I had estimated the Indy till I die tendancy and the Unionist to the core supporter at about 25% and 35% respectively. That still seems to be roughly the case.
The separatists need to get into the 7s to win. That's a big ask, all else being equal.
Could the government not mitigate it for low earning self employed people and make up it up by doing something that would also help the environment like levying VAT on newspapers?
It's not costing self-employed up to £16k anything anyway (!)
They gain more from Class 2 NIC abolition than they lose from Class 4 NIC rise.
@Alistair I genuinely hope the SNP can do it in the next couple of years.
Agreed. Good luck to our Scottish friends – the time has come for them to make their own way – we should be a good neighbour and wish them well.
We will inevitably be imposing border controls and customs duties at Berwick if the Scots choose independence given we are leaving the single market to control immigration
The political ramifications will be minimal I think, but this is certainly the day that the Brexit Right lost its innocence. Until then every grievance was easily outsourced to the EU, the ruling classes or the media. (Indeed, some defenders of the NI hike have gone all Trump and claimed that it's just fake news promulgated by peeved freelance journalists.) It is slowly dawning on the Brexit Right that the seat of power can be a lonely and unforgiving place.
Since when were Phil Hammond and Theresa May "the Brexit Right"?
If Michael Gove were Boris Johnson's Chancellor you might have a semblance of a point.
The mad thing for me, when I hear Tory Remainers complaining, is how much worse it could have been! We have two people from Cameron's cabinet, both Remainers, in charge... yet Leavers are ok with it and Remainers want them out!
It's not all about Remain and Leave tbh. More that Tessie seems to want to play with the headbangers.
And some may remember her lack of support and carefully orchestrated interventions during the Referendum of course.
I wonder if IDS sees May and Hammond as a pair of cuckoos in the Brexit nest. I think they've been quite 'hard Brexit' myself, but perhaps they don't meet IDS's exacting standards. Will IDS decide to install some new, more suitable candidates?
Good post from @Richard_Tyndall OPT. As is often the case with Richard, I don't agree with all of it but his views are always very cogently argued.
The key point I do agree with is this idea – that has been allowed to fester – that welfare should be a 'pay in, get out' regime. That's simply bonkers. My household income is very high compared to the average and, therefore, I pay a lot of tax, compared to the average. Do I think I should get all that back in services? No. Clearly I pay that as a mixture of a safety net and a general view that all civilised nations have a floor beneath which no citizen should be allowed to fall. Tax and welfare is a cost of running a country and an economy, not some sort of Christmas Savings Club run by HMRC.
Yep - totally agree. As Marx nearly said about welfare and services: "From each according to his ability to pay, to each according to his needs." Of course, the key debating point is what constitutes "needs".
Indeed. One point I think we can all hopefully agree on though is that, at the extreme, someone living on £100K a year - whether employed or retired - should not be getting any form of Government handout. If that basic principle is accepted then the question then becomes one of where should the cut off point or taper be set.
Obviously I am of the opinion that no one earning more than the average wage should be getting handouts. Others of course will disagree but the important point first will be to establish the basic principles and educate people about the new paradigm.
Could the government not mitigate it for low earning self employed people and make up it up by doing something that would also help the environment like levying VAT on newspapers?
It's not costing self-employed up to £16k anything anyway (!)
They gain more from Class 2 NIC abolition than they lose from Class 4 NIC rise.
@Alistair I genuinely hope the SNP can do it in the next couple of years.
Agreed. Good luck to our Scottish friends – the time has come for them to make their own way – we should be a good neighbour and wish them well.
We will inevitably be imposing border controls and customs duties at Berwick if the Scots choose independence given we are leaving the single market to control immigration
So similar to what the deranged Brexit fundamentalists are planning on the River Foyle then?
I have not been a great fan of May's style since she became PM, but if she holds firm on this issue I will gain more appreciation of her - the outrage simply doesn't seem to match the crime here, for all, yes, it breaks a manifesto promise, and backing down seems unwarranted.
I wonder if IDS sees May and Hammond as a pair of cuckoos in the Brexit nest. I think they've been quite 'hard Brexit' myself, but perhaps they don't meet IDS's exacting standards. Will IDS decide to install some new, more suitable candidates?
I suspect their ire is more with Hammond than May.
Given the only polling on the subject has voters backing the NI increase, the Lords and Heseltine are yet again putting themselves against public opinion on Brexit and it was Cameron and Osborne's impossible manifesto commitment to hold income tax and NI rates and cut inheritance tax and increase funding for the NHS and social care which meant something had to give to say this is May's worst week in government is absurd
These on-the-spot polls often shift following a press barrage (not that I think the reaction to the NIC increase is justified, I don't)
They won't on this as most are unaffected
Maybe. It depends if, even if they are unaffected, people think it is unfair. A sustained enough barrage saying it is could sway opinion, but it just doesn't feel as inherently awful a proposal to justify that reaction to me, hence more focus from some on the fact it is a broken pledge than whether, in the circumstances, it was right to break that pledge.
If I was Hammond I would say I will scrap the hike and keep all Cameron and Osborne commitments against tax rises, then say he will also slash spending on the NHS and social care and make backbench NIC rebels the key spokesmen for the Tories on the new cuts
The mad thing for me, when I hear Tory Remainers complaining, is how much worse it could have been! We have two people from Cameron's cabinet, both Remainers, in charge... yet Leavers are ok with it and Remainers want them out!
It's not all about Remain and Leave tbh. More that Tessie seems to want to play with the headbangers.
And some may remember her lack of support and carefully orchestrated interventions during the Referendum of course.
The "headbangers" are the ordinary Conservative voters. Theresa May is in touch with them in a way that her predecessor wasn't.
The mad thing for me, when I hear Tory Remainers complaining, is how much worse it could have been! We have two people from Cameron's cabinet, both Remainers, in charge... yet Leavers are ok with it and Remainers want them out!
It's not all about Remain and Leave tbh. More that Tessie seems to want to play with the headbangers.
And some may remember her lack of support and carefully orchestrated interventions during the Referendum of course.
The "headbangers" are the ordinary Conservative voters. Theresa May is in touch with them in a way that her predecessor wasn't.
Could the government not mitigate it for low earning self employed people and make up it up by doing something that would also help the environment like levying VAT on newspapers?
It's not costing self-employed up to £16k anything anyway (!)
They gain more from Class 2 NIC abolition than they lose from Class 4 NIC rise.
That's what is so stupid about the moaning. Most self employed people will be better off.
The mad thing for me, when I hear Tory Remainers complaining, is how much worse it could have been! We have two people from Cameron's cabinet, both Remainers, in charge... yet Leavers are ok with it and Remainers want them out!
It's not all about Remain and Leave tbh. More that Tessie seems to want to play with the headbangers.
And some may remember her lack of support and carefully orchestrated interventions during the Referendum of course.
The "headbangers" are the ordinary Conservative voters. Theresa May is in touch with them in a way that her predecessor wasn't.
Ordinary Tory voters are headbangers?
Hence, the inverted commas. This is a very standard Conservative government, not a hard-right government.
Could the government not mitigate it for low earning self employed people and make up it up by doing something that would also help the environment like levying VAT on newspapers?
It's not costing self-employed up to £16k anything anyway (!)
They gain more from Class 2 NIC abolition than they lose from Class 4 NIC rise.
That's what is so stupid about the moaning. Most self employed people will be better off.
Yeah, but not journos, lawyers, management consultants and their ilk.
The mad thing for me, when I hear Tory Remainers complaining, is how much worse it could have been! We have two people from Cameron's cabinet, both Remainers, in charge... yet Leavers are ok with it and Remainers want them out!
It's not all about Remain and Leave tbh. More that Tessie seems to want to play with the headbangers.
And some may remember her lack of support and carefully orchestrated interventions during the Referendum of course.
The "headbangers" are the ordinary Conservative voters. Theresa May is in touch with them in a way that her predecessor wasn't.
Ordinary Tory voters are headbangers?
Hence, the inverted commas. This is a very standard Conservative government, not a hard-right government.
A very standard Conservative government implementing a key part of Michael Foot's manifesto?
Prior to the last referendum I had estimated the Indy till I die tendancy and the Unionist to the core supporter at about 25% and 35% respectively. That still seems to be roughly the case.
The separatists need to get into the 7s to win. That's a big ask, all else being equal.
I wonder if IDS sees May and Hammond as a pair of cuckoos in the Brexit nest. I think they've been quite 'hard Brexit' myself, but perhaps they don't meet IDS's exacting standards. Will IDS decide to install some new, more suitable candidates?
I suspect their ire is more with Hammond than May.
Indeed she's still happily driving the Tory party up an ideological dead end road with IDS in the passenger seat exhorting her to greater speed. Going to be an almighty crash at some point.
The mad thing for me, when I hear Tory Remainers complaining, is how much worse it could have been! We have two people from Cameron's cabinet, both Remainers, in charge... yet Leavers are ok with it and Remainers want them out!
It's not all about Remain and Leave tbh. More that Tessie seems to want to play with the headbangers.
And some may remember her lack of support and carefully orchestrated interventions during the Referendum of course.
The "headbangers" are the ordinary Conservative voters. Theresa May is in touch with them in a way that her predecessor wasn't.
Ordinary Tory voters are headbangers?
Hence, the inverted commas. This is a very standard Conservative government, not a hard-right government.
A very standard Conservative government implementing a key part of Michael Foot's manifesto?
Back in the day, the Conservative Party supported rationing. Times, and political circumstances, change.
The mad thing for me, when I hear Tory Remainers complaining, is how much worse it could have been! We have two people from Cameron's cabinet, both Remainers, in charge... yet Leavers are ok with it and Remainers want them out!
It's not all about Remain and Leave tbh. More that Tessie seems to want to play with the headbangers.
And some may remember her lack of support and carefully orchestrated interventions during the Referendum of course.
The "headbangers" are the ordinary Conservative voters. Theresa May is in touch with them in a way that her predecessor wasn't.
Ordinary Tory voters are headbangers?
Hence, the inverted commas. This is a very standard Conservative government, not a hard-right government.
A very standard Conservative government implementing a key part of Michael Foot's manifesto?
Back in the day, the Conservative Party supported rationing. Times, and political circumstances, change.
Rationing was a temporary policy. As I'm sure withdrawal from the EU is a temporary policy to appease a confused party and a fatigued electorate...
The mad thing for me, when I hear Tory Remainers complaining, is how much worse it could have been! We have two people from Cameron's cabinet, both Remainers, in charge... yet Leavers are ok with it and Remainers want them out!
It's not all about Remain and Leave tbh. More that Tessie seems to want to play with the headbangers.
And some may remember her lack of support and carefully orchestrated interventions during the Referendum of course.
The "headbangers" are the ordinary Conservative voters. Theresa May is in touch with them in a way that her predecessor wasn't.
Disagree. She might be in touch with the members in a way Cameron wasn't. Tory inclined floating voters not so much. They'll stick with the Tories currently because there's no viable alternative and because of the perception of competence. That could change very quickly.
The mad thing for me, when I hear Tory Remainers complaining, is how much worse it could have been! We have two people from Cameron's cabinet, both Remainers, in charge... yet Leavers are ok with it and Remainers want them out!
It's not all about Remain and Leave tbh. More that Tessie seems to want to play with the headbangers.
And some may remember her lack of support and carefully orchestrated interventions during the Referendum of course.
The "headbangers" are the ordinary Conservative voters. Theresa May is in touch with them in a way that her predecessor wasn't.
Ordinary Tory voters are headbangers?
Hence, the inverted commas. This is a very standard Conservative government, not a hard-right government.
A very standard Conservative government implementing a key part of Michael Foot's manifesto?
Michael Foot preceded Delors.
As a great mind is said to have once said "When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?"
Prior to the last referendum I had estimated the Indy till I die tendancy and the Unionist to the core supporter at about 25% and 35% respectively. That still seems to be roughly the case.
The separatists need to get into the 7s to win. That's a big ask, all else being equal.
The mad thing for me, when I hear Tory Remainers complaining, is how much worse it could have been! We have two people from Cameron's cabinet, both Remainers, in charge... yet Leavers are ok with it and Remainers want them out!
It's not all about Remain and Leave tbh. More that Tessie seems to want to play with the headbangers.
And some may remember her lack of support and carefully orchestrated interventions during the Referendum of course.
The "headbangers" are the ordinary Conservative voters. Theresa May is in touch with them in a way that her predecessor wasn't.
Ordinary Tory voters are headbangers?
Hence, the inverted commas. This is a very standard Conservative government, not a hard-right government.
Hmmm. I always associate "headbangers" with an identifiable subsection of the Tory parliamentary party. In another age, they would be the "b*stards".
I wonder if IDS sees May and Hammond as a pair of cuckoos in the Brexit nest. I think they've been quite 'hard Brexit' myself, but perhaps they don't meet IDS's exacting standards. Will IDS decide to install some new, more suitable candidates?
I suspect their ire is more with Hammond than May.
Indeed she's still happily driving the Tory party up an ideological dead end road with IDS in the passenger seat exhorting her to greater speed. Going to be an almighty crash at some point.
How bizarre that every one of the PM, Loto and Chancellor shares either a surname or a given name with a member of the former Top Gear trio.
Comments
The contracted out arrangements facilitated a reduced NIC in return for a smaller state pension, which was supposedly made good by the relevant defined benefit pension scheme.
In effect it is another way of getting public sector employees to pay more for their pension rights.
Let us wait for some more polling.
I hope you're not calling journalists wankers..
All I would say, as an impartial observer, is they both seem reasonable and reasonably able to be sold as a non breakage or breakage depending on where you stand.
It seems Hammond and May (Remain) have hit a section of society that leans Leave... and Remainers are indignant!!
The EdStone was Torsten's idea.
Sorry, you lose this game. Try again?
eg Most benefits - ie tax credits etc - all frozen for this entire Parliament - approx a 10% real terms cut - big money for huge number of people - but media says nothing (though Corbyn goes on about it).
Whereas Mickey Mouse rise in CASH cost of self-employed NI - mass hysteria breaks out.
Winning races is especially hard without electricity.
I do broadly agree about the likely sense of gratitude from the headbangers, though; buying them off is a pretty dubious transaction in any but the extreme short term.
Just as they made no contingency plans for a Leave vote once elected, so their earlier manifesto would not have given any thought to what might be necessary. Indeed, compared to Mr Osborne's threats of a punishment budget, Mr Hammond seems to have managed quite well so far.
Good afternoon, everyone.
Yes, despite @SeanT 's line that Brexit would destroy Sindy, I note that Yes is now favourite.
Those convinced the polling is wrong/will come back to No should snaffle up the even money available with Hills.
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/scottish-politics/scotland-to-vote-for-independence-by-end-of-2024
Indeed, the complacency of Cameron in particular was astonishing.
Agreed. Good luck to our Scottish friends – the time has come for them to make their own way – we should be a good neighbour and wish them well.
Everyone knows this is peanuts compared to what Corbyn will have in store for them.
Corbyn's tax changes will impact people in a serious way that they'll really notice.
Still, as a Remainer I am not comfortable with Hammond being bullied by the Tory Right – someone, somehow needs to push them back into their box.
https://twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/839821017832960006
Obviously I am of the opinion that no one earning more than the average wage should be getting handouts. Others of course will disagree but the important point first will be to establish the basic principles and educate people about the new paradigm.
We'll see.
Prior to the last referendum I had estimated the Indy till I die tendancy and the Unionist to the core supporter at about 25% and 35% respectively. That still seems to be roughly the case.
Told Treasury/No Ten didn't adequately check NIC plan against Tory Manifesto or what Ministers said in run-up to last election.
March 9, 2017
This is why Sturgeon has been hammering on about single market access I would imagine.
Run that by me again please.
https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/839816824275480578
They gain more from Class 2 NIC abolition than they lose from Class 4 NIC rise.
If Michael Gove were Boris Johnson's Chancellor you might have a semblance of a point.
And some may remember her lack of support and carefully orchestrated interventions during the Referendum of course.
But that only finds some of the money.
Opinionway has it 62-38 and Ipsos 55-45
The 7 point change can be explained because their previous head to head poll took place on 20th January, before the Filon scandal hit.
https://www.theengineer.co.uk/first-new-uk-pumped-hydro-scheme-for-30-years-given-go-ahead/?cmpid=tenews_3179538
BOTH Macron & Fillon need to implode for Le Pen to have a chance. This offers some protection of value when laying her out.
As a great mind is said to have once said "When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?"
Really?
The title 'Omnishambles' budget comes from the first of Osborne's two disastrous budgets.
So bad I think it gave Ed Miliband quite a lift.
TAX CREDITS.
Asked by BuzzFeed News if he'd been visiting Julian Assange, the former UKIP leader said he couldn't remember what he'd been doing in the building.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/marieleconte/wait-what?utm_term=.ns2VB7Oa7#.oqYxgRanR
Le Pen 27
Macron 23 (down 2)
Fillon 19.5 (up 2)
http://www.lepoint.fr/politique/emmanuel-berretta/ipsos-fillon-reprend-du-poil-de-la-bete-09-03-2017-2110489_1897.php