politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Northern Ireland: Calls for ‘united Unionism’ simply don’t add

System · March 2017

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Northern Ireland: Calls for ‘united Unionism’ simply don’t add up

Make no mistake, 2017 was a bad election, indeed a terrible election for Unionism. Of the 18-seat reduction caused by the 2016 Act, 16 were lost by Unionists.

Read the full story here

Tim_B · March 2017

1?

Tim_B · March 2017

and a 2?

Tim_B · March 2017

and a 3.. and we're off

TheScreamingEagles · March 2017

At least the problems in Northern Ireland are to do with a good old financial scandal, and not anything to do with bombs, bullets, or sectarianism.

Morris_Dancer · March 2017

FPT: French: Fillon gets strong Republican backing.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39184387

On-topic: Foster should sod off. But then, she shouldn't've been so pigheaded months ago.

TheScreamingEagles · March 2017

Sorry to go off topic, but arse biscuits for those of us laying Fillon

Leaders of the French centre-right have unanimously backed embattled presidential candidate Francois Fillon after an emergency meeting.

Mr Fillon, once the front-runner, has lost much of his support after being told he faces formal investigation for embezzlement.

He denies the charges and has refused to step aside.

The leader of Mr Fillon's Republican party, Bernard Accoyer, said the party was re-launching Mr Fillon's campaign.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39184387

kle4 · March 2017

I know its not a place which favours Corbynism, but I get the impression they are running out of ways to be subtle about it.

http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2017/03/06/john-mcdonnell-has-finally-lost-it/

I think it does capture one reason the Corbyn/McDonnell IRA position is still a little problem, if not a big one given it is so historical for most people, and that's because they were less willing to compromise than the actual republicans were.

BudG · March 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:
Sorry to go off topic, but arse biscuits for those of us laying Fillon

Leaders of the French centre-right have unanimously backed embattled presidential candidate Francois Fillon after an emergency meeting.

Mr Fillon, once the front-runner, has lost much of his support after being told he faces formal investigation for embezzlement.

He denies the charges and has refused to step aside.

The leader of Mr Fillon's Republican party, Bernard Accoyer, said the party was re-launching Mr Fillon's campaign.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39184387

They didn't really have much choice did they? They could not force him to stand down and they could not put another candidate forward because that would have split the Party vote.
So the only option left is to give him their support. Otherwise the Party would have got the blame for not supporting him if and when he loses and they need Fillon to totally own the defeat.

kle4 · March 2017

Yes, bad day for unionism sounds about right. Perhaps not as inevitable a death knell as some would have it, but hardly great.

How soon until direct rule, and how's Foster doing ?

TheScreamingEagles · March 2017

BudG said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Sorry to go off topic, but arse biscuits for those of us laying Fillon

Leaders of the French centre-right have unanimously backed embattled presidential candidate Francois Fillon after an emergency meeting.

Mr Fillon, once the front-runner, has lost much of his support after being told he faces formal investigation for embezzlement.

He denies the charges and has refused to step aside.

The leader of Mr Fillon's Republican party, Bernard Accoyer, said the party was re-launching Mr Fillon's campaign.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39184387
They didn't really have much choice did they? They could not force him to stand down and they could not put another candidate forward because that would have split the Party vote.
So the only option left is to give him their support. Otherwise the Party would have got the blame for not supporting him if and when he loses and they need Fillon to totally own the defeat.

I said yesterday Fillon is the French Trump.

tlg86 · March 2017

Interesting, thank you.

Alanbrooke · March 2017

The DUP are idiots

they have no plan, no vision and just wind everyone else up

Foster if she had any decency would resign but wont

BudG · March 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:

BudG said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Sorry to go off topic, but arse biscuits for those of us laying Fillon

Leaders of the French centre-right have unanimously backed embattled presidential candidate Francois Fillon after an emergency meeting.

Mr Fillon, once the front-runner, has lost much of his support after being told he faces formal investigation for embezzlement.

He denies the charges and has refused to step aside.

The leader of Mr Fillon's Republican party, Bernard Accoyer, said the party was re-launching Mr Fillon's campaign.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39184387
They didn't really have much choice did they? They could not force him to stand down and they could not put another candidate forward because that would have split the Party vote.
So the only option left is to give him their support. Otherwise the Party would have got the blame for not supporting him if and when he loses and they need Fillon to totally own the defeat.
I said yesterday Fillon is the French Trump.

I think this journalist must have read your post!

http://www.thelocal.fr/20170306/is-franois-fillon-morphing-into-donald-trump

HYUFD · March 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:

BudG said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Sorry to go off topic, but arse biscuits for those of us laying Fillon

Leaders of the French centre-right have unanimously backed embattled presidential candidate Francois Fillon after an emergency meeting.

Mr Fillon, once the front-runner, has lost much of his support after being told he faces formal investigation for embezzlement.

He denies the charges and has refused to step aside.

The leader of Mr Fillon's Republican party, Bernard Accoyer, said the party was re-launching Mr Fillon's campaign.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39184387
They didn't really have much choice did they? They could not force him to stand down and they could not put another candidate forward because that would have split the Party vote.
So the only option left is to give him their support. Otherwise the Party would have got the blame for not supporting him if and when he loses and they need Fillon to totally own the defeat.
I said yesterday Fillon is the French Trump.

Le Pen sees herself as the French Trump, Fillon is the French Jeb Bush, Hamon the French Sanders/Corbyn and Macron the French Trudeau

HYUFD · March 2017

kle4 said:
Yes, bad day for unionism sounds about right. Perhaps not as inevitable a death knell as some would have it, but hardly great.

How soon until direct rule, and how's Foster doing ?

Brokenshire and May will do anything they can to avoid direct rule, even allowing a SF UUP Alliance deal if neither SF nor the SDLP will work with the Foster led DUP

TheScreamingEagles · March 2017

BudG said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

BudG said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Sorry to go off topic, but arse biscuits for those of us laying Fillon

Leaders of the French centre-right have unanimously backed embattled presidential candidate Francois Fillon after an emergency meeting.

Mr Fillon, once the front-runner, has lost much of his support after being told he faces formal investigation for embezzlement.

He denies the charges and has refused to step aside.

The leader of Mr Fillon's Republican party, Bernard Accoyer, said the party was re-launching Mr Fillon's campaign.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39184387
They didn't really have much choice did they? They could not force him to stand down and they could not put another candidate forward because that would have split the Party vote.
So the only option left is to give him their support. Otherwise the Party would have got the blame for not supporting him if and when he loses and they need Fillon to totally own the defeat.
I said yesterday Fillon is the French Trump.
I think this journalist must have read your post!

http://www.thelocal.fr/20170306/is-franois-fillon-morphing-into-donald-trump

Where I lead, others follow.

felix · March 2017

Excellent article - the election result was bad both for unionism and NI wherever it eventually ends up. The DUP is a disaster.

kle4 · March 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:

BudG said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

BudG said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Sorry to go off topic, but arse biscuits for those of us laying Fillon

Leaders of the French centre-right have unanimously backed embattled presidential candidate Francois Fillon after an emergency meeting.

Mr Fillon, once the front-runner, has lost much of his support after being told he faces formal investigation for embezzlement.

He denies the charges and has refused to step aside.

The leader of Mr Fillon's Republican party, Bernard Accoyer, said the party was re-launching Mr Fillon's campaign.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39184387
They didn't really have much choice did they? They could not force him to stand down and they could not put another candidate forward because that would have split the Party vote.
So the only option left is to give him their support. Otherwise the Party would have got the blame for not supporting him if and when he loses and they need Fillon to totally own the defeat.
I said yesterday Fillon is the French Trump.
I think this journalist must have read your post!

http://www.thelocal.fr/20170306/is-franois-fillon-morphing-into-donald-trump
Where I lead, others follow.

Imagine: A future, full of ruminations on AV alongside subtle pop music references.

It's a hellscape.

Alanbrooke · March 2017

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:
Yes, bad day for unionism sounds about right. Perhaps not as inevitable a death knell as some would have it, but hardly great.

How soon until direct rule, and how's Foster doing ?
Brokenshire and May will do anything they can to avoid direct rule, even allowing a SF UUP Alliance deal if neither SF nor the SDLP will work with the Foster led DUP

and so they should

the worst thing they could do is bail the parties out, let them marinade and tell the voters theyve voted and no government means no money

Lucian_Fletcher · March 2017

kle4 said:
Yes, bad day for unionism sounds about right. Perhaps not as inevitable a death knell as some would have it, but hardly great.

How soon until direct rule, and how's Foster doing ?

In theory three weeks. Certainly by then something has to be either decided or the government has to legislate to extend the timescale for negotiations.

Lucian_Fletcher · March 2017

Alanbrooke said:
The DUP are idiots

they have no plan, no vision and just wind everyone else up

Foster if she had any decency would resign but wont

The DUP were totally classless at the Omagh count. If you dig down into the results you see just how loathed they are by anyone who isn't a Unionist with a capital.

Alanbrooke · March 2017

Lucian_Fletcher said:

kle4 said:
Yes, bad day for unionism sounds about right. Perhaps not as inevitable a death knell as some would have it, but hardly great.

How soon until direct rule, and how's Foster doing ?
In theory three weeks. Certainly by then something has to be either decided or the government has to legislate to extend the timescale for negotiations.

the DUP must be crapping themselves if Brokenshire calls new elections, SF could over take them

RobD · March 2017

BudG said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

BudG said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Sorry to go off topic, but arse biscuits for those of us laying Fillon

Leaders of the French centre-right have unanimously backed embattled presidential candidate Francois Fillon after an emergency meeting.

Mr Fillon, once the front-runner, has lost much of his support after being told he faces formal investigation for embezzlement.

He denies the charges and has refused to step aside.

The leader of Mr Fillon's Republican party, Bernard Accoyer, said the party was re-launching Mr Fillon's campaign.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39184387
They didn't really have much choice did they? They could not force him to stand down and they could not put another candidate forward because that would have split the Party vote.
So the only option left is to give him their support. Otherwise the Party would have got the blame for not supporting him if and when he loses and they need Fillon to totally own the defeat.
I said yesterday Fillon is the French Trump.
I think this journalist must have read your post!

http://www.thelocal.fr/20170306/is-franois-fillon-morphing-into-donald-trump

I think that image is a photoshop. Just a hunch.

Lucian_Fletcher · March 2017

Alanbrooke said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

kle4 said:
Yes, bad day for unionism sounds about right. Perhaps not as inevitable a death knell as some would have it, but hardly great.

How soon until direct rule, and how's Foster doing ?
In theory three weeks. Certainly by then something has to be either decided or the government has to legislate to extend the timescale for negotiations.
the DUP must be crapping themselves if Brokenshire calls new elections, SF could over take them

Doubt it. There would be a dead cat bounce for the DUP at the further expense at the UUP in my opinion. Having said that, I'd hope for some sense to prevail. But it would be hope rather than expectation.

TheScreamingEagles · March 2017

Would Arlene Foster and François Fillon be interested in a job swap?

Alanbrooke · March 2017

Lucian_Fletcher said:

Alanbrooke said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

kle4 said:
Yes, bad day for unionism sounds about right. Perhaps not as inevitable a death knell as some would have it, but hardly great.

How soon until direct rule, and how's Foster doing ?
In theory three weeks. Certainly by then something has to be either decided or the government has to legislate to extend the timescale for negotiations.
the DUP must be crapping themselves if Brokenshire calls new elections, SF could over take them
Doubt it. There would be a dead cat bounce for the DUP at the further expense at the UUP in my opinion. Having said that, I'd hope for some sense to prevail. But it would be hope rather than expectation.

sense, DUP ?

I wouldnt hold my breathe

Sean_F · March 2017

Lucian_Fletcher said:

Alanbrooke said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

kle4 said:
Yes, bad day for unionism sounds about right. Perhaps not as inevitable a death knell as some would have it, but hardly great.

How soon until direct rule, and how's Foster doing ?
In theory three weeks. Certainly by then something has to be either decided or the government has to legislate to extend the timescale for negotiations.
the DUP must be crapping themselves if Brokenshire calls new elections, SF could over take them
Doubt it. There would be a dead cat bounce for the DUP at the further expense at the UUP in my opinion. Having said that, I'd hope for some sense to prevail. But it would be hope rather than expectation.

My guess is that some extra Unionist voters would turn out (and most likely there'd b fewer transfers to the SDLP from UUP in Strangford and Lagan Valley) but it would alter nothing. The gist of your article is correct. UUP has to be aiming for a somewhat different constituency to DUP. Any merger would just be DUP writ large, which would make some Unionists stay at home or vote Alliance.

Lucian_Fletcher · March 2017

Sean_F said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

Alanbrooke said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

kle4 said:
Yes, bad day for unionism sounds about right. Perhaps not as inevitable a death knell as some would have it, but hardly great.

How soon until direct rule, and how's Foster doing ?
In theory three weeks. Certainly by then something has to be either decided or the government has to legislate to extend the timescale for negotiations.
the DUP must be crapping themselves if Brokenshire calls new elections, SF could over take them
Doubt it. There would be a dead cat bounce for the DUP at the further expense at the UUP in my opinion. Having said that, I'd hope for some sense to prevail. But it would be hope rather than expectation.
My guess is that some extra Unionist voters would turn out (and most likely there'd b fewer transfers to the SDLP from UUP in Strangford and Lagan Valley) but it would alter nothing. The gist of your article is correct. UUP has to be aiming for a somewhat different constituency to DUP. Any merger would just be DUP writ large, which would make some Unionists stay at home or vote Alliance.

The other problem is that the institutions are intrinsically biased against Alliance. As they designate as neither Unionist or Nationalist, they CAN'T hold FM or DFM post. Which would of course be untenable if they reached critical mass.

Jonathan · March 2017

Occurred to me that NI politics arguably pointed the way towards current polarising trends and weakening of the centrist parties/factions.

Bojabob · March 2017

Thanks for a great post, Lucian.

Been trying to catch up on the Northern Irish election as been away all weekend.

Doing the maths, am I right that's it's a dead heat between Unionist and Nationalist parties overall? (I'm assume People Before Profit Alliance is Nationalist although their Wikipedia page is unclear on the matter).

Lucian_Fletcher · March 2017

MyBurningEars said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

Alanbrooke said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

kle4 said:
Yes, bad day for unionism sounds about right. Perhaps not as inevitable a death knell as some would have it, but hardly great.

How soon until direct rule, and how's Foster doing ?
In theory three weeks. Certainly by then something has to be either decided or the government has to legislate to extend the timescale for negotiations.
the DUP must be crapping themselves if Brokenshire calls new elections, SF could over take them
Doubt it. There would be a dead cat bounce for the DUP at the further expense at the UUP in my opinion. Having said that, I'd hope for some sense to prevail. But it would be hope rather than expectation.
Are you a UUP member these days? I remember a few years back you were deciding re Conservative or UUP but the former don't seem to have made any mark whatsoever in NI.

I am but I don't really like to broadcast it too much as I'm clearly identifiable if anyone joins the dots!

RobD · March 2017

Lucian_Fletcher said:

Sean_F said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

Alanbrooke said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

kle4 said:
Yes, bad day for unionism sounds about right. Perhaps not as inevitable a death knell as some would have it, but hardly great.

How soon until direct rule, and how's Foster doing ?
In theory three weeks. Certainly by then something has to be either decided or the government has to legislate to extend the timescale for negotiations.
the DUP must be crapping themselves if Brokenshire calls new elections, SF could over take them
Doubt it. There would be a dead cat bounce for the DUP at the further expense at the UUP in my opinion. Having said that, I'd hope for some sense to prevail. But it would be hope rather than expectation.
My guess is that some extra Unionist voters would turn out (and most likely there'd b fewer transfers to the SDLP from UUP in Strangford and Lagan Valley) but it would alter nothing. The gist of your article is correct. UUP has to be aiming for a somewhat different constituency to DUP. Any merger would just be DUP writ large, which would make some Unionists stay at home or vote Alliance.
The other problem is that the institutions are intrinsically biased against Alliance. As they designate as neither Unionist or Nationalist, they CAN'T hold FM or DFM post. Which would of course be untenable if they reached critical mass.

Isn't 'other' a designation also?

Lucian_Fletcher · March 2017

RobD said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

Sean_F said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

Alanbrooke said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

kle4 said:
Yes, bad day for unionism sounds about right. Perhaps not as inevitable a death knell as some would have it, but hardly great.

How soon until direct rule, and how's Foster doing ?
In theory three weeks. Certainly by then something has to be either decided or the government has to legislate to extend the timescale for negotiations.
the DUP must be crapping themselves if Brokenshire calls new elections, SF could over take them
Doubt it. There would be a dead cat bounce for the DUP at the further expense at the UUP in my opinion. Having said that, I'd hope for some sense to prevail. But it would be hope rather than expectation.
My guess is that some extra Unionist voters would turn out (and most likely there'd b fewer transfers to the SDLP from UUP in Strangford and Lagan Valley) but it would alter nothing. The gist of your article is correct. UUP has to be aiming for a somewhat different constituency to DUP. Any merger would just be DUP writ large, which would make some Unionists stay at home or vote Alliance.
The other problem is that the institutions are intrinsically biased against Alliance. As they designate as neither Unionist or Nationalist, they CAN'T hold FM or DFM post. Which would of course be untenable if they reached critical mass.
Isn't 'other' a designation also?

It is. But imagine the furore.

Lucian_Fletcher · March 2017

Bojabob said:
Thanks for a great post, Lucian.

Been trying to catch up on the Northern Irish election as been away all weekend.

Doing the maths, am I right that's it's a dead heat between Unionist and Nationalist parties overall? (I'm assume People Before Profit Alliance is Nationalist although their Wikipedia page is unclear on the matter).

No. PBP is Other. They get their support largely from Nationalists but they don't designate as such.

Sean_F · March 2017

Bojabob said:
Thanks for a great post, Lucian.

Been trying to catch up on the Northern Irish election as been away all weekend.

Doing the maths, am I right that's it's a dead heat between Unionist and Nationalist parties overall? (I'm assume People Before Profit Alliance is Nationalist although their Wikipedia page is unclear on the matter).

PBP is unaligned, though most of it's support comes from Nationalist areas.

Bojabob · March 2017

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:
Yes, bad day for unionism sounds about right. Perhaps not as inevitable a death knell as some would have it, but hardly great.

How soon until direct rule, and how's Foster doing ?
Brokenshire and May will do anything they can to avoid direct rule, even allowing a SF UUP Alliance deal if neither SF nor the SDLP will work with the Foster led DUP

Would see Michelle O'Neill as First Minister and the youngest ever politician to lead one of the four nations of the UK.

On a less trivial note, you would have someone leading a county which she does believe has any right to exist – SF considers Northern Ireland to be an illegitimate entity. Ate there any such examples globally of such a phenomenon?

ydoethur · March 2017

Lucian_Fletcher said:

Sean_F said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

Alanbrooke said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

kle4 said:
Yes, bad day for unionism sounds about right. Perhaps not as inevitable a death knell as some would have it, but hardly great.

How soon until direct rule, and how's Foster doing ?
In theory three weeks. Certainly by then something has to be either decided or the government has to legislate to extend the timescale for negotiations.
the DUP must be crapping themselves if Brokenshire calls new elections, SF could over take them
Doubt it. There would be a dead cat bounce for the DUP at the further expense at the UUP in my opinion. Having said that, I'd hope for some sense to prevail. But it would be hope rather than expectation.
My guess is that some extra Unionist voters would turn out (and most likely there'd b fewer transfers to the SDLP from UUP in Strangford and Lagan Valley) but it would alter nothing. The gist of your article is correct. UUP has to be aiming for a somewhat different constituency to DUP. Any merger would just be DUP writ large, which would make some Unionists stay at home or vote Alliance.
The other problem is that the institutions are intrinsically biased against Alliance. As they designate as neither Unionist or Nationalist, they CAN'T hold FM or DFM post. Which would of course be untenable if they reached critical mass.

That would be a very happy day indeed. Imagine a Northern Ireland where someone who had messed up on the scale of Arlene Foster was driven out and replaced by somebody else, and not still bedblocking because she's a Protestant and 80% of her co-religionists still will not vote any other way. Where politics is normal and democracy is functioning, in other words.

I'm 34 but I think it's no better than 50/50 I live to see it.

RobD · March 2017

Lucian_Fletcher said:

RobD said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

Sean_F said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

Alanbrooke said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

kle4 said:
Yes, bad day for unionism sounds about right. Perhaps not as inevitable a death knell as some would have it, but hardly great.

How soon until direct rule, and how's Foster doing ?
In theory three weeks. Certainly by then something has to be either decided or the government has to legislate to extend the timescale for negotiations.
the DUP must be crapping themselves if Brokenshire calls new elections, SF could over take them
Doubt it. There would be a dead cat bounce for the DUP at the further expense at the UUP in my opinion. Having said that, I'd hope for some sense to prevail. But it would be hope rather than expectation.
My guess is that some extra Unionist voters would turn out (and most likely there'd b fewer transfers to the SDLP from UUP in Strangford and Lagan Valley) but it would alter nothing. The gist of your article is correct. UUP has to be aiming for a somewhat different constituency to DUP. Any merger would just be DUP writ large, which would make some Unionists stay at home or vote Alliance.
The other problem is that the institutions are intrinsically biased against Alliance. As they designate as neither Unionist or Nationalist, they CAN'T hold FM or DFM post. Which would of course be untenable if they reached critical mass.
Isn't 'other' a designation also?
It is. But imagine the furore.

Yeah, so I think they can hold the FM/DFM post if they are the largest party of the first or second delegation.

ydoethur · March 2017

Bojabob said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:
Yes, bad day for unionism sounds about right. Perhaps not as inevitable a death knell as some would have it, but hardly great.

How soon until direct rule, and how's Foster doing ?
Brokenshire and May will do anything they can to avoid direct rule, even allowing a SF UUP Alliance deal if neither SF nor the SDLP will work with the Foster led DUP
Would see Michelle O'Neill as First Minister and the youngest ever politician to lead one of the four nations of the UK.

On a less trivial note, you would have someone leading a county which she does believe has any right to exist – SF considers Northern Ireland to be an illegitimate entity. Ate there any such examples globally of such a phenomenon?

Victor Yanukovych and the Ukraine? Artur Seyss-Inquart and Austria (technically)? Gerhard Schroeder and Germany?

Can't think of any current ones though.

Bojabob · March 2017

ydoethur said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

Sean_F said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

Alanbrooke said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

kle4 said:
Yes, bad day for unionism sounds about right. Perhaps not as inevitable a death knell as some would have it, but hardly great.

How soon until direct rule, and how's Foster doing ?
In theory three weeks. Certainly by then something has to be either decided or the government has to legislate to extend the timescale for negotiations.
the DUP must be crapping themselves if Brokenshire calls new elections, SF could over take them
Doubt it. There would be a dead cat bounce for the DUP at the further expense at the UUP in my opinion. Having said that, I'd hope for some sense to prevail. But it would be hope rather than expectation.
My guess is that some extra Unionist voters would turn out (and most likely there'd b fewer transfers to the SDLP from UUP in Strangford and Lagan Valley) but it would alter nothing. The gist of your article is correct. UUP has to be aiming for a somewhat different constituency to DUP. Any merger would just be DUP writ large, which would make some Unionists stay at home or vote Alliance.
The other problem is that the institutions are intrinsically biased against Alliance. As they designate as neither Unionist or Nationalist, they CAN'T hold FM or DFM post. Which would of course be untenable if they reached critical mass.
That would be a very happy day indeed. Imagine a Northern Ireland where someone who had messed up on the scale of Arlene Foster was driven out and replaced by somebody else, and not still bedblocking because she's a Protestant and 80% of her co-religionists still will not vote any other way. Where politics is normal and democracy is functioning, in other words.

I'm 34 but I think it's no better than 50/50 I live to see it.

What alternative is there to power sharing though? A normally administered parliament/assembly a la Wales or Scotland would never command the support of the community that was out of power.

Omnium · March 2017

FPT (jokes - or failure to see them etc) : Thank you Mr Dancer. As always you're spot on. However as I'm sure that it's precisely your smarty-pants crown that Mr M and I aspire to then you can see that we may be more embittered still. We may resort even to fail to dance the Morris in our spare time! (Lord knows what other options there may be though!)

Bojabob · March 2017

Sean_F said:

Bojabob said:
Thanks for a great post, Lucian.

Been trying to catch up on the Northern Irish election as been away all weekend.

Doing the maths, am I right that's it's a dead heat between Unionist and Nationalist parties overall? (I'm assume People Before Profit Alliance is Nationalist although their Wikipedia page is unclear on the matter).
PBP is unaligned, though most of it's support comes from Nationalist areas.

Thanks, Sean.

Lucian_Fletcher · March 2017

MyBurningEars said:
@Lucian

Yes sorry, I know exactly who you are (as do many others on here!) so feel free to delete your post! Apologies for prying.

Oh I'm not that bothered. My Twitter feed has anything I put here and more!

Bojabob · March 2017

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:
Yes, bad day for unionism sounds about right. Perhaps not as inevitable a death knell as some would have it, but hardly great.

How soon until direct rule, and how's Foster doing ?
Brokenshire and May will do anything they can to avoid direct rule, even allowing a SF UUP Alliance deal if neither SF nor the SDLP will work with the Foster led DUP

Would see Michelle O'Neill as First Minister and the youngest ever politician to lead one of the four nations of the UK.

On a less trivial note, you would have someone leading a country which she does believe has any right to exist – SF considers Northern Ireland to be an illegitimate entity. Ate there any such examples globally of such a phenomenon?

ydoethur · March 2017

Bojabob said:

ydoethur said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

Sean_F said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

Alanbrooke said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

kle4 said:
Yes, bad day for unionism sounds about right. Perhaps not as inevitable a death knell as some would have it, but hardly great.

How soon until direct rule, and how's Foster doing ?
In theory three weeks. Certainly by then something has to be either decided or the government has to legislate to extend the timescale for negotiations.
the DUP must be crapping themselves if Brokenshire calls new elections, SF could over take them
Doubt it. There would be a dead cat bounce for the DUP at the further expense at the UUP in my opinion. Having said that, I'd hope for some sense to prevail. But it would be hope rather than expectation.
My guess is that some extra Unionist voters would turn out (and most likely there'd b fewer transfers to the SDLP from UUP in Strangford and Lagan Valley) but it would alter nothing. The gist of your article is correct. UUP has to be aiming for a somewhat different constituency to DUP. Any merger would just be DUP writ large, which would make some Unionists stay at home or vote Alliance.
The other problem is that the institutions are intrinsically biased against Alliance. As they designate as neither Unionist or Nationalist, they CAN'T hold FM or DFM post. Which would of course be untenable if they reached critical mass.
That would be a very happy day indeed. Imagine a Northern Ireland where someone who had messed up on the scale of Arlene Foster was driven out and replaced by somebody else, and not still bedblocking because she's a Protestant and 80% of her co-religionists still will not vote any other way. Where politics is normal and democracy is functioning, in other words.

I'm 34 but I think it's no better than 50/50 I live to see it.
What alternative is there to power sharing though? A normally administered parliament/assembly a la Wales or Scotland would never command the support of the community that was out of power.

That's what I was lamenting. Until the sectarianism is ended and we have normal buffoonish and harmless muppets who try to win votes everywhere in charge, my dream is impossible. Maybe it's only my dream at all because I'm not from Northern Ireland.

Hertsmere_Pubgoer · March 2017

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

BudG said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

BudG said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Sorry to go off topic, but arse biscuits for those of us laying Fillon

Leaders of the French centre-right have unanimously backed embattled presidential candidate Francois Fillon after an emergency meeting.

Mr Fillon, once the front-runner, has lost much of his support after being told he faces formal investigation for embezzlement.

He denies the charges and has refused to step aside.

The leader of Mr Fillon's Republican party, Bernard Accoyer, said the party was re-launching Mr Fillon's campaign.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-39184387
They didn't really have much choice did they? They could not force him to stand down and they could not put another candidate forward because that would have split the Party vote.
So the only option left is to give him their support. Otherwise the Party would have got the blame for not supporting him if and when he loses and they need Fillon to totally own the defeat.
I said yesterday Fillon is the French Trump.
I think this journalist must have read your post!

http://www.thelocal.fr/20170306/is-franois-fillon-morphing-into-donald-trump
Where I lead, others follow.
Imagine: A future, full of ruminations on AV alongside subtle pop music references.

It's a hellscape.

And the shoes

williamglenn · March 2017

ydoethur said:

Bojabob said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:
Yes, bad day for unionism sounds about right. Perhaps not as inevitable a death knell as some would have it, but hardly great.

How soon until direct rule, and how's Foster doing ?
Brokenshire and May will do anything they can to avoid direct rule, even allowing a SF UUP Alliance deal if neither SF nor the SDLP will work with the Foster led DUP
Would see Michelle O'Neill as First Minister and the youngest ever politician to lead one of the four nations of the UK.

On a less trivial note, you would have someone leading a county which she does believe has any right to exist – SF considers Northern Ireland to be an illegitimate entity. Ate there any such examples globally of such a phenomenon?

Victor Yanukovych and the Ukraine? Artur Seyss-Inquart and Austria (technically)? Gerhard Schroeder and Germany?

Can't think of any current ones though.

Gerhard Schroeder and Germany?

At least you didn't say Ted Heath.

Lucian_Fletcher · March 2017

ydoethur said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

Sean_F said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

Alanbrooke said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

kle4 said:
Yes, bad day for unionism sounds about right. Perhaps not as inevitable a death knell as some would have it, but hardly great.

How soon until direct rule, and how's Foster doing ?
In theory three weeks. Certainly by then something has to be either decided or the government has to legislate to extend the timescale for negotiations.
the DUP must be crapping themselves if Brokenshire calls new elections, SF could over take them
Doubt it. There would be a dead cat bounce for the DUP at the further expense at the UUP in my opinion. Having said that, I'd hope for some sense to prevail. But it would be hope rather than expectation.
My guess is that some extra Unionist voters would turn out (and most likely there'd b fewer transfers to the SDLP from UUP in Strangford and Lagan Valley) but it would alter nothing. The gist of your article is correct. UUP has to be aiming for a somewhat different constituency to DUP. Any merger would just be DUP writ large, which would make some Unionists stay at home or vote Alliance.
The other problem is that the institutions are intrinsically biased against Alliance. As they designate as neither Unionist or Nationalist, they CAN'T hold FM or DFM post. Which would of course be untenable if they reached critical mass.
That would be a very happy day indeed. Imagine a Northern Ireland where someone who had messed up on the scale of Arlene Foster was driven out and replaced by somebody else, and not still bedblocking because she's a Protestant and 80% of her co-religionists still will not vote any other way. Where politics is normal and democracy is functioning, in other words.

I'm 34 but I think it's no better than 50/50 I live to see it.

If Northern Ireland is to see you out, it has to happen.

Sean_F · March 2017

Is there much support in the UUP for folding it into the DUP?

Charles · March 2017

Bojabob said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:
Yes, bad day for unionism sounds about right. Perhaps not as inevitable a death knell as some would have it, but hardly great.

How soon until direct rule, and how's Foster doing ?
Brokenshire and May will do anything they can to avoid direct rule, even allowing a SF UUP Alliance deal if neither SF nor the SDLP will work with the Foster led DUP
Would see Michelle O'Neill as First Minister and the youngest ever politician to lead one of the four nations of the UK.

On a less trivial note, you would have someone leading a county which she does believe has any right to exist – SF considers Northern Ireland to be an illegitimate entity. Ate there any such examples globally of such a phenomenon?

Nicola Sturgeon?

RobD · March 2017

Charles said:

Bojabob said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:
Yes, bad day for unionism sounds about right. Perhaps not as inevitable a death knell as some would have it, but hardly great.

How soon until direct rule, and how's Foster doing ?
Brokenshire and May will do anything they can to avoid direct rule, even allowing a SF UUP Alliance deal if neither SF nor the SDLP will work with the Foster led DUP
Would see Michelle O'Neill as First Minister and the youngest ever politician to lead one of the four nations of the UK.

On a less trivial note, you would have someone leading a county which she does believe has any right to exist – SF considers Northern Ireland to be an illegitimate entity. Ate there any such examples globally of such a phenomenon?

Nicola Sturgeon?

She has not yet called for the abolition of Scotland

ydoethur · March 2017

williamglenn said:

ydoethur said:

Bojabob said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:
Yes, bad day for unionism sounds about right. Perhaps not as inevitable a death knell as some would have it, but hardly great.

How soon until direct rule, and how's Foster doing ?
Brokenshire and May will do anything they can to avoid direct rule, even allowing a SF UUP Alliance deal if neither SF nor the SDLP will work with the Foster led DUP
Would see Michelle O'Neill as First Minister and the youngest ever politician to lead one of the four nations of the UK.

On a less trivial note, you would have someone leading a county which she does believe has any right to exist – SF considers Northern Ireland to be an illegitimate entity. Ate there any such examples globally of such a phenomenon?

Victor Yanukovych and the Ukraine? Artur Seyss-Inquart and Austria (technically)? Gerhard Schroeder and Germany?

Can't think of any current ones though.
Gerhard Schroeder and Germany?

His first speech to the Bundestag in 1998 declared that it was essential to create a fully federal Europe and subsume Germany into it, and that would be his main goal while he was in office. As I recall he later delegated Germany's votes to Chirac whenever he had to leave summits early.

If Brexit had happened in 1996, he might have managed it.

Lucian_Fletcher · March 2017

Sean_F said:
Is there much support in the UUP for folding it into the DUP?

Obviously it's very soon after the event but I've heard precisely no-one within the party suggest it. Plenty of people outside it have!

My theory is that if people were for quitting, they have done it by now.

Bojabob · March 2017

Charles said:

Bojabob said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:
Yes, bad day for unionism sounds about right. Perhaps not as inevitable a death knell as some would have it, but hardly great.

How soon until direct rule, and how's Foster doing ?
Brokenshire and May will do anything they can to avoid direct rule, even allowing a SF UUP Alliance deal if neither SF nor the SDLP will work with the Foster led DUP
Would see Michelle O'Neill as First Minister and the youngest ever politician to lead one of the four nations of the UK.

On a less trivial note, you would have someone leading a county which she does believe has any right to exist – SF considers Northern Ireland to be an illegitimate entity. Ate there any such examples globally of such a phenomenon?

Nicola Sturgeon?

Sturgeon was 44 when she became first minister.

O'Neill would be only 40.

RobD · March 2017

Bojabob said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:
Yes, bad day for unionism sounds about right. Perhaps not as inevitable a death knell as some would have it, but hardly great.

How soon until direct rule, and how's Foster doing ?
Brokenshire and May will do anything they can to avoid direct rule, even allowing a SF UUP Alliance deal if neither SF nor the SDLP will work with the Foster led DUP

Would see Michelle O'Neill as First Minister and the youngest ever politician to lead one of the four nations of the UK.

On a less trivial note, you would have someone leading a country which she does believe has any right to exist – SF considers Northern Ireland to be an illegitimate entity. Ate there any such examples globally of such a phenomenon?

How would that lead to O'Neill being the FM? The rules are quite clear that the FM is nominated by the largest party in the largest designation.

RobD · March 2017

Bojabob said:

Charles said:

Bojabob said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:
Yes, bad day for unionism sounds about right. Perhaps not as inevitable a death knell as some would have it, but hardly great.

How soon until direct rule, and how's Foster doing ?
Brokenshire and May will do anything they can to avoid direct rule, even allowing a SF UUP Alliance deal if neither SF nor the SDLP will work with the Foster led DUP
Would see Michelle O'Neill as First Minister and the youngest ever politician to lead one of the four nations of the UK.

On a less trivial note, you would have someone leading a county which she does believe has any right to exist – SF considers Northern Ireland to be an illegitimate entity. Ate there any such examples globally of such a phenomenon?

Nicola Sturgeon?
Sturgeon was 44 when she became first minister.

O'Neill would be only 40.

I think Charles was addressing your second point.

Morris_Dancer · March 2017

Mr. Omnium, no real man can resist the urge to be adorned with lace and wave their wiffle stick before a crowd of gleeful admirers.

HYUFD · March 2017

Alanbrooke said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:
Yes, bad day for unionism sounds about right. Perhaps not as inevitable a death knell as some would have it, but hardly great.

How soon until direct rule, and how's Foster doing ?
Brokenshire and May will do anything they can to avoid direct rule, even allowing a SF UUP Alliance deal if neither SF nor the SDLP will work with the Foster led DUP
and so they should

the worst thing they could do is bail the parties out, let them marinade and tell the voters theyve voted and no government means no money

Exactly, plus if the DUP refuse to remove Foster then they will have to leave the government

Lucian_Fletcher · March 2017

RobD said:

Bojabob said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:
Yes, bad day for unionism sounds about right. Perhaps not as inevitable a death knell as some would have it, but hardly great.

How soon until direct rule, and how's Foster doing ?
Brokenshire and May will do anything they can to avoid direct rule, even allowing a SF UUP Alliance deal if neither SF nor the SDLP will work with the Foster led DUP

Would see Michelle O'Neill as First Minister and the youngest ever politician to lead one of the four nations of the UK.

On a less trivial note, you would have someone leading a country which she does believe has any right to exist – SF considers Northern Ireland to be an illegitimate entity. Ate there any such examples globally of such a phenomenon?
How would that lead to O'Neill being the FM? The rules are quite clear that the FM is nominated by the largest party in the largest designation.

No, it's the largest party. That's the DUP/SF carve up amendment in StAndrews which has made the last few elections so dispiriting as DUP shored up their vote and turned everyone else off with awful negative campaigns.

RobD · March 2017

Lucian_Fletcher said:

RobD said:

Bojabob said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:
Yes, bad day for unionism sounds about right. Perhaps not as inevitable a death knell as some would have it, but hardly great.

How soon until direct rule, and how's Foster doing ?
Brokenshire and May will do anything they can to avoid direct rule, even allowing a SF UUP Alliance deal if neither SF nor the SDLP will work with the Foster led DUP

Would see Michelle O'Neill as First Minister and the youngest ever politician to lead one of the four nations of the UK.

On a less trivial note, you would have someone leading a country which she does believe has any right to exist – SF considers Northern Ireland to be an illegitimate entity. Ate there any such examples globally of such a phenomenon?
How would that lead to O'Neill being the FM? The rules are quite clear that the FM is nominated by the largest party in the largest designation.
No, it's the largest party. That's the DUP/SF carve up amendment in StAndrews which has made the last few elections so dispiriting as DUP shored up their vote and turned everyone else off with awful negative campaigns.

I thought the St Andrews agreement changed it to largest party of largest designation. Are those rules now not in force? The only time it is simply largest party under those rules is when the largest party of the largest designation is not the largest overall.

HYUFD · March 2017

Lucian_Fletcher said:

Sean_F said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

Alanbrooke said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

kle4 said:
Yes, bad day for unionism sounds about right. Perhaps not as inevitable a death knell as some would have it, but hardly great.

How soon until direct rule, and how's Foster doing ?
In theory three weeks. Certainly by then something has to be either decided or the government has to legislate to extend the timescale for negotiations.
the DUP must be crapping themselves if Brokenshire calls new elections, SF could over take them
Doubt it. There would be a dead cat bounce for the DUP at the further expense at the UUP in my opinion. Having said that, I'd hope for some sense to prevail. But it would be hope rather than expectation.
My guess is that some extra Unionist voters would turn out (and most likely there'd b fewer transfers to the SDLP from UUP in Strangford and Lagan Valley) but it would alter nothing. The gist of your article is correct. UUP has to be aiming for a somewhat different constituency to DUP. Any merger would just be DUP writ large, which would make some Unionists stay at home or vote Alliance.
The other problem is that the institutions are intrinsically biased against Alliance. As they designate as neither Unionist or Nationalist, they CAN'T hold FM or DFM post. Which would of course be untenable if they reached critical mass.

Yes but they can support a SF UUP coalition to get it over the line for a majority

another_richard · March 2017

Shadsy is offering 7/4 on political prophet and PB favourite Sion Simon winning the West Midlands non-job election:

https://sports.ladbrokes.com/en-gb/betting/politics/british/next-mayor/west-midlands-mayoral-election/222689275/

Labour were ahead 10% in the relevant councils in 2015.

Bojabob · March 2017

RobD said:

Bojabob said:

Charles said:

Bojabob said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:
Yes, bad day for unionism sounds about right. Perhaps not as inevitable a death knell as some would have it, but hardly great.

How soon until direct rule, and how's Foster doing ?
Brokenshire and May will do anything they can to avoid direct rule, even allowing a SF UUP Alliance deal if neither SF nor the SDLP will work with the Foster led DUP
Would see Michelle O'Neill as First Minister and the youngest ever politician to lead one of the four nations of the UK.

On a less trivial note, you would have someone leading a county which she does believe has any right to exist – SF considers Northern Ireland to be an illegitimate entity. Ate there any such examples globally of such a phenomenon?

Nicola Sturgeon?
Sturgeon was 44 when she became first minister.

O'Neill would be only 40.
I think Charles was addressing your second point.

Ha! I wondered that after I had posted it.

Sturgeon is the opposite though: she is leader of a country she considers fully legitimate. It is the UK that she wants away from.

(*In any case, I am not sure that the SNP considers the UK illegitimate – they don't consider it to be occupied by a foreign power, I don't think?)

HYUFD · March 2017

Bojabob said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:
Yes, bad day for unionism sounds about right. Perhaps not as inevitable a death knell as some would have it, but hardly great.

How soon until direct rule, and how's Foster doing ?
Brokenshire and May will do anything they can to avoid direct rule, even allowing a SF UUP Alliance deal if neither SF nor the SDLP will work with the Foster led DUP
Would see Michelle O'Neill as First Minister and the youngest ever politician to lead one of the four nations of the UK.

On a less trivial note, you would have someone leading a county which she does believe has any right to exist – SF considers Northern Ireland to be an illegitimate entity. Ate there any such examples globally of such a phenomenon?

Well given she is unlikely to be Taisoeach it is the next best thing

Pulpstar · March 2017

A very good article, and thanks for the tips - your instinct to broadly lay the DUP was correct !

It is a shame the SDLP, UUP and alliance aren't doing better to be perfectly honest - I do think SF are correct to ask for Arlene Fosters' resignation though.

The map of Northern Ireland is interesting. There is clear nationalist territory standing between Eire and the unionist seats, with West Belfast looking a bit like West Berlin used to as a sort of nationalist enclave within the unionist part !

HYUFD · March 2017

RobD said:

Bojabob said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:
Yes, bad day for unionism sounds about right. Perhaps not as inevitable a death knell as some would have it, but hardly great.

How soon until direct rule, and how's Foster doing ?
Brokenshire and May will do anything they can to avoid direct rule, even allowing a SF UUP Alliance deal if neither SF nor the SDLP will work with the Foster led DUP

Would see Michelle O'Neill as First Minister and the youngest ever politician to lead one of the four nations of the UK.

On a less trivial note, you would have someone leading a country which she does believe has any right to exist – SF considers Northern Ireland to be an illegitimate entity. Ate there any such examples globally of such a phenomenon?
How would that lead to O'Neill being the FM? The rules are quite clear that the FM is nominated by the largest party in the largest designation.

The government will change the rules if necessary if the DUP refuse to compromise, a SF UUP deal would still comprise nationalist and unionist parties

Charles · March 2017

Bojabob said:

Charles said:

Bojabob said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:
Yes, bad day for unionism sounds about right. Perhaps not as inevitable a death knell as some would have it, but hardly great.

How soon until direct rule, and how's Foster doing ?
Brokenshire and May will do anything they can to avoid direct rule, even allowing a SF UUP Alliance deal if neither SF nor the SDLP will work with the Foster led DUP
Would see Michelle O'Neill as First Minister and the youngest ever politician to lead one of the four nations of the UK.

On a less trivial note, you would have someone leading a county which she does believe has any right to exist – SF considers Northern Ireland to be an illegitimate entity. Ate there any such examples globally of such a phenomenon?

Nicola Sturgeon?
Sturgeon was 44 when she became first minister.

O'Neill would be only 40.

Second part of the question

Sean_F · March 2017

HYUFD said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

Sean_F said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

Alanbrooke said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

kle4 said:
Yes, bad day for unionism sounds about right. Perhaps not as inevitable a death knell as some would have it, but hardly great.

How soon until direct rule, and how's Foster doing ?
In theory three weeks. Certainly by then something has to be either decided or the government has to legislate to extend the timescale for negotiations.
the DUP must be crapping themselves if Brokenshire calls new elections, SF could over take them
Doubt it. There would be a dead cat bounce for the DUP at the further expense at the UUP in my opinion. Having said that, I'd hope for some sense to prevail. But it would be hope rather than expectation.
My guess is that some extra Unionist voters would turn out (and most likely there'd b fewer transfers to the SDLP from UUP in Strangford and Lagan Valley) but it would alter nothing. The gist of your article is correct. UUP has to be aiming for a somewhat different constituency to DUP. Any merger would just be DUP writ large, which would make some Unionists stay at home or vote Alliance.
The other problem is that the institutions are intrinsically biased against Alliance. As they designate as neither Unionist or Nationalist, they CAN'T hold FM or DFM post. Which would of course be untenable if they reached critical mass.
Yes but they can support a SF UUP coalition to get it over the line for a majority

The UUP would be killed at a subsequent election if it went into coalition with SF and the DUP were in opposition.

Pulpstar · March 2017

Lucian How did you transfer if I may be so bold to ask ?

I'm guessing you are a 1) NI Conservatives (If they were in your seat) 2) UUP man, but thereafter ?

Pulpstar · March 2017

Sean_F said:

HYUFD said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

Sean_F said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

Alanbrooke said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

kle4 said:
Yes, bad day for unionism sounds about right. Perhaps not as inevitable a death knell as some would have it, but hardly great.

How soon until direct rule, and how's Foster doing ?
In theory three weeks. Certainly by then something has to be either decided or the government has to legislate to extend the timescale for negotiations.
the DUP must be crapping themselves if Brokenshire calls new elections, SF could over take them
Doubt it. There would be a dead cat bounce for the DUP at the further expense at the UUP in my opinion. Having said that, I'd hope for some sense to prevail. But it would be hope rather than expectation.
My guess is that some extra Unionist voters would turn out (and most likely there'd b fewer transfers to the SDLP from UUP in Strangford and Lagan Valley) but it would alter nothing. The gist of your article is correct. UUP has to be aiming for a somewhat different constituency to DUP. Any merger would just be DUP writ large, which would make some Unionists stay at home or vote Alliance.
The other problem is that the institutions are intrinsically biased against Alliance. As they designate as neither Unionist or Nationalist, they CAN'T hold FM or DFM post. Which would of course be untenable if they reached critical mass.
Yes but they can support a SF UUP coalition to get it over the line for a majority
The UUP would be killed at a subsequent election if it went into coalition with SF and the DUP were in opposition.

Same for DUP-SDLP.

UUP-Alliance, SDLP-Alliance, SDLP-Alliance-UUP, DUP-UUP and SDLP-SF would be the possibles 'but for' the power sharing rules I think (And obviously numbers)

Bojabob · March 2017

RobD said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

RobD said:

Bojabob said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:
Yes, bad day for unionism sounds about right. Perhaps not as inevitable a death knell as some would have it, but hardly great.

How soon until direct rule, and how's Foster doing ?
Brokenshire and May will do anything they can to avoid direct rule, even allowing a SF UUP Alliance deal if neither SF nor the SDLP will work with the Foster led DUP

Would see Michelle O'Neill as First Minister and the youngest ever politician to lead one of the four nations of the UK.

On a less trivial note, you would have someone leading a country which she does believe has any right to exist – SF considers Northern Ireland to be an illegitimate entity. Ate there any such examples globally of such a phenomenon?
How would that lead to O'Neill being the FM? The rules are quite clear that the FM is nominated by the largest party in the largest designation.
No, it's the largest party. That's the DUP/SF carve up amendment in StAndrews which has made the last few elections so dispiriting as DUP shored up their vote and turned everyone else off with awful negative campaigns.

I thought the St Andrews agreement changed it to largest party of largest designation. Are those rules now not in force? The only time it is simply largest party under those rules is when the largest party of the largest designation is not the largest overall.

Alliance would prop up Nationalist designation so O'Neill becomes FM?

TheScreamingEagles · March 2017

https://twitter.com/youngvulgarian/status/838847829426728961

another_richard · March 2017

Bojabob said:

RobD said:

Bojabob said:

Charles said:

Bojabob said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:
Yes, bad day for unionism sounds about right. Perhaps not as inevitable a death knell as some would have it, but hardly great.

How soon until direct rule, and how's Foster doing ?
Brokenshire and May will do anything they can to avoid direct rule, even allowing a SF UUP Alliance deal if neither SF nor the SDLP will work with the Foster led DUP
Would see Michelle O'Neill as First Minister and the youngest ever politician to lead one of the four nations of the UK.

On a less trivial note, you would have someone leading a county which she does believe has any right to exist – SF considers Northern Ireland to be an illegitimate entity. Ate there any such examples globally of such a phenomenon?

Nicola Sturgeon?
Sturgeon was 44 when she became first minister.

O'Neill would be only 40.
I think Charles was addressing your second point.
Ha! I wondered that after I had posted it.

Sturgeon is the opposite though: she is leader of a country she considers fully legitimate. It is the UK that she wants away from.

(*In any case, I am not sure that the SNP considers the UK illegitimate – they don't consider it to be occupied by a foreign power, I don't think?)

There's a difference between Irish and Scottish nationalism.

Irish nationalism believes their island must be one political entity whereas Scottish nationalism believes that their island must be more than one political entity.

RobD · March 2017

Bojabob said:

RobD said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

RobD said:

Bojabob said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:
Yes, bad day for unionism sounds about right. Perhaps not as inevitable a death knell as some would have it, but hardly great.

How soon until direct rule, and how's Foster doing ?
Brokenshire and May will do anything they can to avoid direct rule, even allowing a SF UUP Alliance deal if neither SF nor the SDLP will work with the Foster led DUP

Would see Michelle O'Neill as First Minister and the youngest ever politician to lead one of the four nations of the UK.

On a less trivial note, you would have someone leading a country which she does believe has any right to exist – SF considers Northern Ireland to be an illegitimate entity. Ate there any such examples globally of such a phenomenon?
How would that lead to O'Neill being the FM? The rules are quite clear that the FM is nominated by the largest party in the largest designation.
No, it's the largest party. That's the DUP/SF carve up amendment in StAndrews which has made the last few elections so dispiriting as DUP shored up their vote and turned everyone else off with awful negative campaigns.

I thought the St Andrews agreement changed it to largest party of largest designation. Are those rules now not in force? The only time it is simply largest party under those rules is when the largest party of the largest designation is not the largest overall.
Alliance would prop up Nationalist designation so O'Neill becomes FM?

Ah yes, although they would have to change their designation for that.

Bojabob · March 2017

Charles said:

Bojabob said:

Charles said:

Bojabob said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:
Yes, bad day for unionism sounds about right. Perhaps not as inevitable a death knell as some would have it, but hardly great.

How soon until direct rule, and how's Foster doing ?
Brokenshire and May will do anything they can to avoid direct rule, even allowing a SF UUP Alliance deal if neither SF nor the SDLP will work with the Foster led DUP
Would see Michelle O'Neill as First Minister and the youngest ever politician to lead one of the four nations of the UK.

On a less trivial note, you would have someone leading a county which she does believe has any right to exist – SF considers Northern Ireland to be an illegitimate entity. Ate there any such examples globally of such a phenomenon?

Nicola Sturgeon?
Sturgeon was 44 when she became first minister.

O'Neill would be only 40.
Second part of the question

Also not Sturgeon as she is leading Scotland – a nation she considers fully legitimate.

Bojabob · March 2017

HYUFD said:

RobD said:

Bojabob said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:
Yes, bad day for unionism sounds about right. Perhaps not as inevitable a death knell as some would have it, but hardly great.

How soon until direct rule, and how's Foster doing ?
Brokenshire and May will do anything they can to avoid direct rule, even allowing a SF UUP Alliance deal if neither SF nor the SDLP will work with the Foster led DUP

Would see Michelle O'Neill as First Minister and the youngest ever politician to lead one of the four nations of the UK.

On a less trivial note, you would have someone leading a country which she does believe has any right to exist – SF considers Northern Ireland to be an illegitimate entity. Ate there any such examples globally of such a phenomenon?
How would that lead to O'Neill being the FM? The rules are quite clear that the FM is nominated by the largest party in the largest designation.
The government will change the rules if necessary if the DUP refuse to compromise, a SF UUP deal would still comprise nationalist and unionist parties

Indeed.

williamglenn · March 2017

TheScreamingEagles said:
https://twitter.com/youngvulgarian/status/838847829426728961

Whose idea was it to hire Semas Milne for his campaign?

Bojabob · March 2017

Pulpstar said:
A very good article, and thanks for the tips - your instinct to broadly lay the DUP was correct !

It is a shame the SDLP, UUP and alliance aren't doing better to be perfectly honest - I do think SF are correct to ask for Arlene Fosters' resignation though.

The map of Northern Ireland is interesting. There is clear nationalist territory standing between Eire and the unionist seats, with West Belfast looking a bit like West Berlin used to as a sort of nationalist enclave within the unionist part !

Ha I spotted that too. Hard to see why the western counties of NI remained in the UK when Ireland gained independence – demographic change?

williamglenn · March 2017

Macron is rising dramatically when people are asked who they think will win. Could he fall victim to complacency?

https://twitter.com/europeelects/status/838803817122709506

Bojabob · March 2017

RobD said:

Bojabob said:

RobD said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

RobD said:

Bojabob said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:
Yes, bad day for unionism sounds about right. Perhaps not as inevitable a death knell as some would have it, but hardly great.

How soon until direct rule, and how's Foster doing ?
Brokenshire and May will do anything they can to avoid direct rule, even allowing a SF UUP Alliance deal if neither SF nor the SDLP will work with the Foster led DUP

Would see Michelle O'Neill as First Minister and the youngest ever politician to lead one of the four nations of the UK.

On a less trivial note, you would have someone leading a country which she does believe has any right to exist – SF considers Northern Ireland to be an illegitimate entity. Ate there any such examples globally of such a phenomenon?
How would that lead to O'Neill being the FM? The rules are quite clear that the FM is nominated by the largest party in the largest designation.
No, it's the largest party. That's the DUP/SF carve up amendment in StAndrews which has made the last few elections so dispiriting as DUP shored up their vote and turned everyone else off with awful negative campaigns.

I thought the St Andrews agreement changed it to largest party of largest designation. Are those rules now not in force? The only time it is simply largest party under those rules is when the largest party of the largest designation is not the largest overall.
Alliance would prop up Nationalist designation so O'Neill becomes FM?
Ah yes, although they would have to change their designation for that.

Yes, which would in and of itself be highly controversial I suppose.

Ishmael_Z · March 2017

williamglenn said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
https://twitter.com/youngvulgarian/status/838847829426728961
Whose idea was it to hire Semas Milne for his campaign?

Very, very rich coming from one of the fraternity which decided to start the real fight on 24th June 2016.

TheScreamingEagles · March 2017

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/838850204405223426

another_richard · March 2017

Bojabob said:

Pulpstar said:
A very good article, and thanks for the tips - your instinct to broadly lay the DUP was correct !

It is a shame the SDLP, UUP and alliance aren't doing better to be perfectly honest - I do think SF are correct to ask for Arlene Fosters' resignation though.

The map of Northern Ireland is interesting. There is clear nationalist territory standing between Eire and the unionist seats, with West Belfast looking a bit like West Berlin used to as a sort of nationalist enclave within the unionist part !
Ha I spotted that too. Hard to see why the western counties of NI remained in the UK when Ireland gained independence – demographic change?

I think Fermanagh and Tyrone were always majority Catholic - together with southern Armagh, southern Down and western Londonderry.

It was meant to have been sorted out in the 1920s but wasn't:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irish_Boundary_Commission

HYUFD · March 2017

Sean_F said:

HYUFD said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

Sean_F said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

Alanbrooke said:

Lucian_Fletcher said:

kle4 said:
Yes, bad day for unionism sounds about right. Perhaps not as inevitable a death knell as some would have it, but hardly great.

How soon until direct rule, and how's Foster doing ?
In theory three weeks. Certainly by then something has to be either decided or the government has to legislate to extend the timescale for negotiations.
the DUP must be crapping themselves if Brokenshire calls new elections, SF could over take them
Doubt it. There would be a dead cat bounce for the DUP at the further expense at the UUP in my opinion. Having said that, I'd hope for some sense to prevail. But it would be hope rather than expectation.
My guess is that some extra Unionist voters would turn out (and most likely there'd b fewer transfers to the SDLP from UUP in Strangford and Lagan Valley) but it would alter nothing. The gist of your article is correct. UUP has to be aiming for a somewhat different constituency to DUP. Any merger would just be DUP writ large, which would make some Unionists stay at home or vote Alliance.
The other problem is that the institutions are intrinsically biased against Alliance. As they designate as neither Unionist or Nationalist, they CAN'T hold FM or DFM post. Which would of course be untenable if they reached critical mass.
Yes but they can support a SF UUP coalition to get it over the line for a majority
The UUP would be killed at a subsequent election if it went into coalition with SF and the DUP were in opposition.

Not necessarily, hardline unionists all now vote DUP anyway and it could help it win back votes from the Alliance. The government will likely try for a DUP SDLP Alliance deal first if SF won't work with the DUP but if the SDLP won't work with the DUP either then a SF UUP becomes almost inevitable, especially as a third set of elections will change nothing and the government will not countenance direct rule while Brexit is underway

williamglenn · March 2017

On topic - Theresa May seems to fancy her party as the unionists of last resort. Perhaps if she means what she says about 'one people' she should break with the past and start campaigning in NI.

Charles · March 2017

Bojabob said:

Charles said:

Bojabob said:

Charles said:

Bojabob said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:
Yes, bad day for unionism sounds about right. Perhaps not as inevitable a death knell as some would have it, but hardly great.

How soon until direct rule, and how's Foster doing ?
Brokenshire and May will do anything they can to avoid direct rule, even allowing a SF UUP Alliance deal if neither SF nor the SDLP will work with the Foster led DUP
Would see Michelle O'Neill as First Minister and the youngest ever politician to lead one of the four nations of the UK.

On a less trivial note, you would have someone leading a county which she does believe has any right to exist – SF considers Northern Ireland to be an illegitimate entity. Ate there any such examples globally of such a phenomenon?

Nicola Sturgeon?
Sturgeon was 44 when she became first minister.

O'Neill would be only 40.
Second part of the question
Also not Sturgeon as she is leading Scotland – a nation she considers fully legitimate.

She's not: she's a regional first minister in a state she considers illegitimate

RobD · March 2017

williamglenn said:
On topic - Theresa May seems to fancy her party as the unionists of last resort. Perhaps if she means what she says about 'one people' she should break with the past and start campaigning in NI.

The Tories do field candidates in the Northern Ireland. Unfortunately the NI Tory Surge Klaxon has yet to be heard.

dixiedean · March 2017

As an outsider it seems clear Ms. Foster cocked up her govt., and then ran a v poor campaign. Does she have any rivals for a leadership challenge? Are there any within the DUP who would be willing to sacrifice her in order to be in power? In any normal political situation there would be serious questions about her ability to carry on (notwithstanding her leading the largest Party).

williamglenn · March 2017

RobD said:

williamglenn said:
On topic - Theresa May seems to fancy her party as the unionists of last resort. Perhaps if she means what she says about 'one people' she should break with the past and start campaigning in NI.
The Tories do field candidates in the Northern Ireland. Unfortunately the NI Tory Surge Klaxon has yet to be heard.

Yes, beaten by UKIP in the last GE.

RobD · March 2017

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

williamglenn said:
On topic - Theresa May seems to fancy her party as the unionists of last resort. Perhaps if she means what she says about 'one people' she should break with the past and start campaigning in NI.
The Tories do field candidates in the Northern Ireland. Unfortunately the NI Tory Surge Klaxon has yet to be heard.
Yes, beaten by UKIP in the last GE.

Fair play to them for trying to campaign there though.

HYUFD · March 2017

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

williamglenn said:
On topic - Theresa May seems to fancy her party as the unionists of last resort. Perhaps if she means what she says about 'one people' she should break with the past and start campaigning in NI.
The Tories do field candidates in the Northern Ireland. Unfortunately the NI Tory Surge Klaxon has yet to be heard.
Yes, beaten by UKIP in the last GE.

The Tories are closer to the UUP, UKIP the DUP and it is the latter which is the loudest voice in current Unionism

williamglenn · March 2017

https://twitter.com/skynewstonight/status/838846421612777473

Bojabob · March 2017

Charles said:

Bojabob said:

Charles said:

Bojabob said:

Charles said:

Bojabob said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:
Yes, bad day for unionism sounds about right. Perhaps not as inevitable a death knell as some would have it, but hardly great.

How soon until direct rule, and how's Foster doing ?
Brokenshire and May will do anything they can to avoid direct rule, even allowing a SF UUP Alliance deal if neither SF nor the SDLP will work with the Foster led DUP
Would see Michelle O'Neill as First Minister and the youngest ever politician to lead one of the four nations of the UK.

On a less trivial note, you would have someone leading a county which she does believe has any right to exist – SF considers Northern Ireland to be an illegitimate entity. Ate there any such examples globally of such a phenomenon?

Nicola Sturgeon?
Sturgeon was 44 when she became first minister.

O'Neill would be only 40.
Second part of the question
Also not Sturgeon as she is leading Scotland – a nation she considers fully legitimate.
She's not: she's a regional first minister in a state she considers illegitimate

Scotland is a country within a state if we are being pedantic (which of course we are, this being PB).

Lucian_Fletcher · March 2017

Pulpstar said:
Lucian How did you transfer if I may be so bold to ask ?

I'm guessing you are a 1) NI Conservatives (If they were in your seat) 2) UUP man, but thereafter ?

Were I not actively a UUP supporter you would have been right but no. I went the other way round. Without going through the lot I can tell you I voted both Alliance and SDLP quite high.

Bojabob · March 2017

HYUFD said:

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

williamglenn said:
On topic - Theresa May seems to fancy her party as the unionists of last resort. Perhaps if she means what she says about 'one people' she should break with the past and start campaigning in NI.
The Tories do field candidates in the Northern Ireland. Unfortunately the NI Tory Surge Klaxon has yet to be heard.
Yes, beaten by UKIP in the last GE.
The Tories are closer to the UUP, UKIP the DUP and it is the latter which is the loudest voice in current Unionism

Yes the DUP are a hard-right grouping that entertain some pretty choice views well beyond their constitutional principles.

Sunil_Prasannan · March 2017

Nationalists polled less than 40% (OK, 39.70%).

Hertsmere_Pubgoer · March 2017

Bojabob said:

Charles said:

Bojabob said:

Charles said:

Bojabob said:

Charles said:

Bojabob said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:
Yes, bad day for unionism sounds about right. Perhaps not as inevitable a death knell as some would have it, but hardly great.

How soon until direct rule, and how's Foster doing ?
Brokenshire and May will do anything they can to avoid direct rule, even allowing a SF UUP Alliance deal if neither SF nor the SDLP will work with the Foster led DUP
Would see Michelle O'Neill as First Minister and the youngest ever politician to lead one of the four nations of the UK.

On a less trivial note, you would have someone leading a county which she does believe has any right to exist – SF considers Northern Ireland to be an illegitimate entity. Ate there any such examples globally of such a phenomenon?

Nicola Sturgeon?
Sturgeon was 44 when she became first minister.

O'Neill would be only 40.
Second part of the question
Also not Sturgeon as she is leading Scotland – a nation she considers fully legitimate.
She's not: she's a regional first minister in a state she considers illegitimate
Scotland is a country within a state if we are being pedantic (which of course we are, this being PB).

We wouldn't have it any other way.

Charles · March 2017

Bojabob said:

Charles said:

Bojabob said:

Charles said:

Bojabob said:

Charles said:

Bojabob said:

HYUFD said:

kle4 said:
Yes, bad day for unionism sounds about right. Perhaps not as inevitable a death knell as some would have it, but hardly great.

How soon until direct rule, and how's Foster doing ?
Brokenshire and May will do anything they can to avoid direct rule, even allowing a SF UUP Alliance deal if neither SF nor the SDLP will work with the Foster led DUP
Would see Michelle O'Neill as First Minister and the youngest ever politician to lead one of the four nations of the UK.

On a less trivial note, you would have someone leading a county which she does believe has any right to exist – SF considers Northern Ireland to be an illegitimate entity. Ate there any such examples globally of such a phenomenon?

Nicola Sturgeon?
Sturgeon was 44 when she became first minister.

O'Neill would be only 40.
Second part of the question
Also not Sturgeon as she is leading Scotland – a nation she considers fully legitimate.
She's not: she's a regional first minister in a state she considers illegitimate
Scotland is a country within a state if we are being pedantic (which of course we are, this being PB).

But it's not an independent legal entity (which is what distinguishes "a nation" from "existing in a state of nationhood"

Lucian_Fletcher · March 2017

RobD said:

williamglenn said:
On topic - Theresa May seems to fancy her party as the unionists of last resort. Perhaps if she means what she says about 'one people' she should break with the past and start campaigning in NI.
The Tories do field candidates in the Northern Ireland. Unfortunately the NI Tory Surge Klaxon has yet to be heard.

I was talking to our NI Con candidate at an event and was very apologetic about not voting for him. I did say it would be a long road when people like me don't vote for them. He seemed a nice chap.

Sunil_Prasannan · March 2017

williamglenn said:

RobD said:

williamglenn said:
On topic - Theresa May seems to fancy her party as the unionists of last resort. Perhaps if she means what she says about 'one people' she should break with the past and start campaigning in NI.
The Tories do field candidates in the Northern Ireland. Unfortunately the NI Tory Surge Klaxon has yet to be heard.
Yes, beaten by UKIP in the last GE.

UKIP the true UK party, elected representatives in all four Home Nations.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Northern Ireland: Calls for ‘united Unionism’ simply don’t add

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