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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Support for Corbyn is weakening among Labour members. Don’t as

Those of you watching Peston yesterday will know that YouGov has a new poll of Labour members out courtesy of Ian Warren of Election Data. 1,096 Labour members were interviewed last week (27 Feb – 3 Mar) and here are some of the key numbers.
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Oh and first.
*Innocent Face*
https://twitter.com/Figarat/status/838712015623438336?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
Membership already is falling as anti-democrats europhiles go elsewhere (or nowhere). The other bit is more of a theory, I'll grant you.
Off to lunch now. Got a new Zelda game to pick up!
"If an election was held tommorow for Labour leadership, and the following were runners how would you mark your ballot
1 = 1st choice
2 = 2nd choice
---
10 = 10th choice
Mark down as many candidates as you wish"
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/scottish-politics/scotland-to-vote-for-independence-by-end-of-2024
The trend is your friend, as someone once said. "
February 2016 was only a few months into his reign, his support isn't much different to where it was just before a contest where he won by 24%. This is a great poll for Corbyn, he is Labour leader as long as he wants to be.
June 2016 members poll: https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/eprogs4gmc/TimesResults_160630_LabourMembers.pdf
He's very aware of the failings of French state, and praised the Schroeder-Haartz reforms which freed up the German labour market at the start of the 2000s. He also recognises that the 35 hour work week and the early pension age are big problems for France.
I don't think he fits easily into any bucket. He's more reforming than a "steady as she goes" Cameron or Blair. But he's quite conciliatory in tone. I think he'd be a very tough guy to have sitting on the opposite side of the table in a negotiations.
But at least you'd know what he was looking for.
I'm not going to deny, I liked him.
That statement is clearly and demonstrably false. It is now a matter of timing.
The trend is your friend.
And sometimes I think outside of the box and fall flat on my face!!
Seems to me this is evidence that the whole Jezza thing has been a crazy, dreaming summer romance, as I posted at the time.
I wonder if the +40 for Corbyn to -1 in London amongst members challenges the previous assumption that Labour will hold up better in London than elsewhere. They did so in 2015 (Ilford North was a nice Labour winner for me), but the London 2020 results may not be so different to the general hammering Labour will get outside the capital as a result of Corbyn's stance on Brexit !
Time to rethink London exceptionalism ?
Bigger Lab -> Lib Dem, and smaller upward Tory swings than provincial E&W, but leading to similiar net Lab -> Tory perhaps..
Labour did shite in them and went on to win a landslide in 1997.
June 2016: Total Vote 50% Total not vote 47%
February 2017: Total vote 52% Total not vote 46%
That's the trend.
Newbury -4 -29 -12.5
Christchurch -9.4 -32.2 -11.4
Richmond -8.63 -13.05 -2.21
1. Some of Corbyns supporters are fed up over Brexit and deserting him (and the party) accordingly.
2. Copeland might turn out to be a low water mark for Labour: it can't get much worse, they will probably win Gorton with ease, and the multiple problems facing May once Article 50 is triggered will give Corbyn some breathing room.
3. Many of the labour membership are still silent and invisible, never turning up to any meetings etc. They are not influenced by other more longstanding and active members.
4. Labour are fucked anyway because they have no coherant economic policy, this is true for both the left and right of the party. The literature is all simply about ending austerity and reversing cuts and spending more money on everything. It is not difficult for any thinking, intelligent person to see that it is all dishonest bullshit.
I think he will be around for a while.
Corbyn is leader as long as long as he wants, unless either (1) a clearly better candidate stands against him or (2) he chooses to stand down.
That second option might be of his own volition or it might be under pressure but if there's one thing that 2016 proved, it's that Corbyn doesn't play by the usual rules. So what are the options of a clearly better candidate standing against him; one who Labour could put forward as a PM-in-waiting? Given Labour's history, not great.
As Keiran says, "Labour’s future will belong to whoever has the guts to seize it" - *if* someone has the guts to seize it.
Combine that with what has already come to pass in Scotland, and with the Welsh political map having lost that The Only Way is Red sheen it used to have, and whoever serves as Labour leader is going to have to fight on many fronts. At least one ball is likely to be dropped. On the grounds that it is least alike to the others, the London ball could well be the one.
Sarko +300
Baroin +210
Macron +73
Fillon +59
AN Other 0
Total staked £5.
Considering laying some Fillon for flexibility.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-france-election-fillon-idUKKBN16D1EN?rpc=401&
You need a good leader and clear message, the rest is nice but secondary
Sarkozy +1821
The Field +908 or more
https://youtu.be/WHrcNKVt4Rw
Do we know who paid for this poll, and why? I wouldn't expect that Ian Warren paid for it out of his own pocket.
The figures there are shown as:
Should lead Labour at next election - 63%
Continue for time being but step down by GE -16%
Step down now - 15%
Don't Know - 6%
So 2018/19 seems likely as people point out Corbyn whipped Labour to approve the Article 50 notification bill.
That said, I think there's still an immense psychological barrier that prevents Labour MPs from opposing the leader directly in a contest.
Emmanuel Macron +804
Marine Le Pen +311
Francois Fillon -365
Francois Baroin +10,085
Laurent Wauquiez +3,041
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan +3,921
Nicolas Sarkozy -177
Field -610
Not being a betting man, what the Sadiq Khan odds versus Starmer and Balls/Cooper?
Maybe I'm feeling a little peaky...
This poll shows that the membership are under no further illusions about the poor prospects under Jeremy Corbyn but still on balance want him to depart on his own terms.
I will always remember last Wednesday very fondly
they have previous
Ryton didnt survive despite us being in the EU
If he was up against the other two he'd win handily. But there'll be at least one more left-wing contender too.
Seven weeks to go, given the uncertainties in this election so far, I would have to say she was a lay at that price at the moment. I would be a backer at 1.85
http://news.sky.com/story/barbra-streisand-donald-trump-is-making-me-pile-on-the-pounds-10792313
https://twitter.com/PoliticalPics/status/838722565497581568