Skip to content

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Northern Ireland Assembly Election Result : March 2nd 2017

SystemSystem Posts: 12,677
edited March 2017 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Northern Ireland Assembly Election Result : March 2nd 2017

Changes in seats are based on readjusted Assembly calculations

Read the full story here


«1

Comments

  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    1
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Unionism has seen what's coming.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,525
    Claire Sugden should be added to the Unionists. And PBP and Cross Community Labour don't designate themselves as Nationalist.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,707
    BETTING RELATED POST

    https://twitter.com/pierrebri/status/838097059311939584
    https://twitter.com/pierrebri/status/838097366473375745
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/jgault13/status/838103608197529601
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,439
    I saw on sky news macron campaign claiming Russian hacking / smearing campaign.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,707
    So Theresa might turn out to be a pound shop modern day David Lloyd George, overseeing the partition of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    FPT
    Mortimer said:



    Yes - the haters. Some are opposed to his policies, others are so enraged that they rail against the bluster and opposition to Conservative issues is muffled.

    It isn't exactly difficult to understand. Infrastructure spending, tax cuts and conservative justices are the real aim. Immigration changes are not exactly priority number one for the conservatives

    Some? Nearly all of Trump's critics are opposed to his policies in one way or another. It is just that they have additional concerns about his personality, and temperant alongside that. Opposition to Conservative issues is hardly muffled - the Women's March was in part a march against the administration's plans concerning Planned Parenthood and the desire of many Republicans to seen Rode v Wade overturned. Immigration changes may not be the number one priority, but they were certainly up there for the Republican base who have been passionate about this issue even prior to Trump.

    Tax cuts can be reserved; they hardly quantify as something which will engineer some massive revolution that Trump's successor will not be able to overturn. Tax reform, conservative justices are all issues Conservatives care about yes. But immigration, and Obamacare are just as important and so far neither of these things are going well.

    Infrastructure spending is not really a Conservative issue. Of all the things that the likes of Paul Ryan et al get excited about all of things I've just listed are way more important to them than infrastructure spending.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,328
    The_Apocalypse said:

    FPT

    Mortimer said:



    Yes - the haters. Some are opposed to his policies, others are so enraged that they rail against the bluster and opposition to Conservative issues is muffled.

    It isn't exactly difficult to understand. Infrastructure spending, tax cuts and conservative justices are the real aim. Immigration changes are not exactly priority number one for the conservatives

    Some? Nearly all of Trump's critics are opposed to his policies in one way or another. It is just that they have additional concerns about his personality, and temperant alongside that. Opposition to Conservative issues is hardly muffled - the Women's March was in part a march against the administration's plans concerning Planned Parenthood and the desire of many Republicans to seen Rode v Wade overturned. Immigration changes may not be the number one priority, but they were certainly up there for the Republican base who have been passionate about this issue even prior to Trump.

    Tax cuts can be reserved; they hardly quantify as something which will engineer some massive revolution that Trump's successor will not be able to overturn. Tax reform, conservative justices are all issues Conservatives care about yes. But immigration, and Obamacare are just as important and so far neither of these things are going well.

    Infrastructure spending is not really a Conservative issue. Of all the things that the likes of Paul Ryan et al get excited about all of things I've just listed are way more important to them than infrastructure spending.
    The women's march doesn't swing votes in the rust belt, suprisingly..
  • HarryHayfieldHarryHayfield Posts: 55
    Sean_F said:

    Claire Sugden should be added to the Unionists. And PBP and Cross Community Labour don't designate themselves as Nationalist.

    Thank you for that clarification, I wasn't entirely sure so erred on the side of caution.. That's Unionists 40, Nationalists 39, Others 11

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,884
    Cheers for this, Mr. Hayfield.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Mortimer said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    FPT

    Mortimer said:



    Yes - the haters. Some are opposed to his policies, others are so enraged that they rail against the bluster and opposition to Conservative issues is muffled.

    It isn't exactly difficult to understand. Infrastructure spending, tax cuts and conservative justices are the real aim. Immigration changes are not exactly priority number one for the conservatives

    Some? Nearly all of Trump's critics are opposed to his policies in one way or another. It is just that they have additional concerns about his personality, and temperant alongside that. Opposition to Conservative issues is hardly muffled - the Women's March was in part a march against the administration's plans concerning Planned Parenthood and the desire of many Republicans to seen Rode v Wade overturned. Immigration changes may not be the number one priority, but they were certainly up there for the Republican base who have been passionate about this issue even prior to Trump.

    Tax cuts can be reserved; they hardly quantify as something which will engineer some massive revolution that Trump's successor will not be able to overturn. Tax reform, conservative justices are all issues Conservatives care about yes. But immigration, and Obamacare are just as important and so far neither of these things are going well.

    Infrastructure spending is not really a Conservative issue. Of all the things that the likes of Paul Ryan et al get excited about all of things I've just listed are way more important to them than infrastructure spending.
    The women's march doesn't swing votes in the rust belt, suprisingly..
    Well, I didn't say that it did. It was in response to your statement that 'opposition to Conservative issues is muffled.' In America abortion is definitely a Conservative issue.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,328
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So Theresa might turn out to be a pound shop modern day David Lloyd George, overseeing the partition of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

    Might be worth getting behind our leader in turbulent times, no?
  • HarryHayfieldHarryHayfield Posts: 55
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    BETTING RELATED POST

    https://twitter.com/pierrebri/status/838097059311939584
    https://twitter.com/pierrebri/status/838097366473375745

    France 24 is reporting that at Fillon's campaign launch today he gave no indication of any statement tomorrow at all.

  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,328
    The_Apocalypse said:

    Mortimer said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    FPT

    Mortimer said:



    Yes - the haters. Some are opposed to his policies, others are so enraged that they rail against the bluster and opposition to Conservative issues is muffled.

    It isn't exactly difficult to understand. Infrastructure spending, tax cuts and conservative justices are the real aim. Immigration changes are not exactly priority number one for the conservatives

    Some? Nearly all of Trump's critics are opposed to his policies in one way or another. It is just that they have additional concerns about his personality, and temperant alongside that. Opposition to Conservative issues is hardly muffled - the Women's March was in part a march against the administration's plans concerning Planned Parenthood and the desire of many Republicans to seen Rode v Wade overturned. Immigration changes may not be the number one priority, but they were certainly up there for the Republican base who have been passionate about this issue even prior to Trump.

    Tax cuts can be reserved; they hardly quantify as something which will engineer some massive revolution that Trump's successor will not be able to overturn. Tax reform, conservative justices are all issues Conservatives care about yes. But immigration, and Obamacare are just as important and so far neither of these things are going well.

    Infrastructure spending is not really a Conservative issue. Of all the things that the likes of Paul Ryan et al get excited about all of things I've just listed are way more important to them than infrastructure spending.
    The women's march doesn't swing votes in the rust belt, suprisingly..
    Well, I didn't say that it did. It was in response to your statement that 'opposition to Conservative issues is muffled.' In America abortion is definitely a Conservative issue.
    If you don't think that the women's march muffles real opposition, you can't see the wood for the trees.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,328
    Thanks as ever Harry!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,707
    Mortimer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So Theresa might turn out to be a pound shop modern day David Lloyd George, overseeing the partition of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

    Might be worth getting behind our leader in turbulent times, no?
    Great leaders earn loyalty.

    Blind loyalty is the what leads to Corbynism or Gordon Brown's coronation.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,328
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mortimer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So Theresa might turn out to be a pound shop modern day David Lloyd George, overseeing the partition of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

    Might be worth getting behind our leader in turbulent times, no?
    Great leaders earn loyalty.

    Blind loyalty is the what leads to Corbynism or Gordon Brown's coronation.
    Double digit poll leads in Government not enough? You're a tough cookie!
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited March 2017
    Mortimer said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Mortimer said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    FPT

    Mortimer said:



    Yes - the haters. Some are opposed to his policies, others are so enraged that they rail against the bluster and opposition to Conservative issues is muffled.

    It isn't exactly difficult to understand. Infrastructure spending, tax cuts and conservative justices are the real aim. Immigration changes are not exactly priority number one for the conservatives

    Some? Nearly all of Trump's critics are opposed to his policies in one way or another. It is just that they have additional concerns about his personality, and temperant alongside that. Opposition to Conservative issues is hardly muffled - the Women's March was in part a march against the administration's plans concerning Planned Parenthood and the desire of many Republicans to seen Rode v Wade overturned. Immigration changes may not be the number one priority, but they were certainly up there for the Republican base who have been passionate about this issue even prior to Trump.

    Tax cuts can be reserved; they hardly quantify as something which will engineer some massive revolution that Trump's successor will not be able to overturn. Tax reform, conservative justices are all issues Conservatives care about yes. But immigration, and Obamacare are just as important and so far neither of these things are going well.

    Infrastructure spending is not really a Conservative issue. Of all the things that the likes of Paul Ryan et al get excited about all of things I've just listed are way more important to them than infrastructure spending.
    The women's march doesn't swing votes in the rust belt, suprisingly..
    Well, I didn't say that it did. It was in response to your statement that 'opposition to Conservative issues is muffled.' In America abortion is definitely a Conservative issue.
    If you don't think that the women's march muffles real opposition, you can't see the wood for the trees.
    You're going to have elaborate on that statement instead of dismissively saying 'you can't see the wood for the trees.' The Democrats and any other pro-abortion rights groups are going to have to rely on protest etc because the GOP have the WH and Congress.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,525
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mortimer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So Theresa might turn out to be a pound shop modern day David Lloyd George, overseeing the partition of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

    Might be worth getting behind our leader in turbulent times, no?
    Great leaders earn loyalty.

    Blind loyalty is the what leads to Corbynism or Gordon Brown's coronation.
    So far, I think she's made a good start.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,094
    I think Fillon is going to set rocket burners under his campaign tomorrow. Can feel it in my bones.
    You wouldn't stand down giving a speech at the Trocadero ffsake.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So Theresa might turn out to be a pound shop modern day David Lloyd George, overseeing the partition of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

    Can not see May agreeing to any referendum on Northern Irelands future.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,328
    The_Apocalypse said:

    Mortimer said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Mortimer said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    FPT

    Mortimer said:



    Yes - the haters. Some are opposed to his policies, others are so enraged that they rail against the bluster and opposition to Conservative issues is muffled.

    It isn't exactly difficult to understand. Infrastructure spending, tax cuts and conservative justices are the real aim. Immigration changes are not exactly priority number one for the conservatives

    Some? Nearly all of Trump's critics are opposed to his policies in one way or another. It is just that they have additional concerns about his personality, and temperant alongside that. Opposition to Conservative issues is hardly muffled - the Women's March was in part a march against the administration's plans concerning Planned Parenthood and the desire of many Republicans to seen Rode v Wade overturned. Immigration changes may not be the number one priority, but they were certainly up there for the Republican base who have been passionate about this issue even prior to Trump.

    Tax cuts can be reserved; they hardly quantify as something which will engineer some massive revolution that Trump's successor will not be able to overturn. Tax reform, conservative justices are all issues Conservatives care about yes. But immigration, and Obamacare are just as important and so far neither of these things are going well.

    Infrastructure spending is not really a Conservative issue. Of all the things that the likes of Paul Ryan et al get excited about all of things I've just listed are way more important to them than infrastructure spending.
    The women's march doesn't swing votes in the rust belt, suprisingly..
    Well, I didn't say that it did. It was in response to your statement that 'opposition to Conservative issues is muffled.' In America abortion is definitely a Conservative issue.
    If you don't think that the women's march muffles real opposition, you can't see the wood for the trees.
    You're going to have elaborate on that statement instead of dismissively saying 'you can't see the wood for the trees.' The Democrats and any other pro-abortion rights groups are going to have to rely on protest because the GOP have the WH and Congress.
    Look at it this way. Calm, measured opposition gains ideological traction, fundraising and pan-national support.

    Marching on the coast doesn't convince the flyover states of the validity of liberal arguments.

    You're a soccer mom in Iowa - say - and voted for Trump despite some reservations. Marching makes the opposition look far too liberal to attract voters next time around.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Yorkcity said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So Theresa might turn out to be a pound shop modern day David Lloyd George, overseeing the partition of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

    Can not see May agreeing to any referendum on Northern Irelands future.

    The Good Friday Agreement outlines the circumstances under which a referendum must be held. May or anyone else could not renege on that, unless the GFA itself was totally scrapped.

  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    Interesting development in corporate Scotland:

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/standard-life-and-aberdeen-asset-management-confirm-merger-talks-1-4383336
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,328
    Pulpstar said:

    I think Fillon is going to set rocket burners under his campaign tomorrow. Can feel it in my bones.
    You wouldn't stand down giving a speech at the Trocadero ffsake.

    This has shades of Thursday all over again.
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    Mortimer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So Theresa might turn out to be a pound shop modern day David Lloyd George, overseeing the partition of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

    Might be worth getting behind our leader in turbulent times, no?
    Like IDS, Boris, Gove et al?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,707
    Pulpstar said:

    I think Fillon is going to set rocket burners under his campaign tomorrow. Can feel it in my bones.
    You wouldn't stand down giving a speech at the Trocadero ffsake.

    Must not post that picture of Hitler at the Trocadéro.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    Thought we might have an Opinium poll in tomorrow's Observer.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Pulpstar said:

    I think Fillon is going to set rocket burners under his campaign tomorrow. Can feel it in my bones.
    You wouldn't stand down giving a speech at the Trocadero ffsake.

    The prize is too big. If he can get to R2 against Le Pen chances are he becomes president.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,094
    Mortimer said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I think Fillon is going to set rocket burners under his campaign tomorrow. Can feel it in my bones.
    You wouldn't stand down giving a speech at the Trocadero ffsake.

    This has shades of Thursday all over again.
    Yep he'd have announced thursday if he was standing down.

    Its reminding me a bit of Trump's campaign actually..
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    Pulpstar said:

    I think Fillon is going to set rocket burners under his campaign tomorrow. Can feel it in my bones.
    You wouldn't stand down giving a speech at the Trocadero ffsake.

    My book is even more of a mess! Not terrible, just messy. Macron v Juppé is great, Juppé v Le Pen terrible.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    calum said:

    Interesting development in corporate Scotland:

    http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/standard-life-and-aberdeen-asset-management-confirm-merger-talks-1-4383336

    Wowzer.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,094
    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I think Fillon is going to set rocket burners under his campaign tomorrow. Can feel it in my bones.
    You wouldn't stand down giving a speech at the Trocadero ffsake.

    My book is even more of a mess! Not terrible, just messy. Macron v Juppé is great, Juppé v Le Pen terrible.
    -411.5 Le Pen
    +207.49 Macron
    +358.36 Fillon
    +17.15 Juppe
    +20.59 Other
    +375.68 Baroin
    +95.64 Melenchon
    -152.31 Hamon
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,328
    midwinter said:

    Mortimer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So Theresa might turn out to be a pound shop modern day David Lloyd George, overseeing the partition of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

    Might be worth getting behind our leader in turbulent times, no?
    Like IDS, Boris, Gove et al?
    Tory party didn't have a position on Brexit, remember?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,866
    Can PBP and the Cross-Community Labour Party be described as "Nationalist"?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,525
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Can PBP and the Cross-Community Labour Party be described as "Nationalist"?

    No. Both are agnostic on the Border.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    DavidL said:

    There's a brilliant line in Scott about someone "riding up to the castle with all the arrogance of a second cousin". Captures the importance of family in the clan structure.

    It can be a problem until one deploys Mrs JackW from the ramparts ....
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,866
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So Theresa might turn out to be a pound shop modern day David Lloyd George, overseeing the partition of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

    Not with Nationalists polling sub-40%....
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,810
    I think the final paragraph should say:

    First Preference Wins on proposed constituencies: DUP 8, Sinn Fein 8, Too close to call 1

    The total must be 17.
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    Dutch poll:

    Peil PVV/WIlders 25 leads VVD/Rutte 24

    The election is 11 days.

    My forecast at the moment is PVV 24, VVD 22 (we shall see!) - the 2.3 on the VVD winning is fair.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    Been drinking for a while but could I request a thread on the Cheltenham week please? Need to go to bed hic
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,455
    Pulpstar said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I think Fillon is going to set rocket burners under his campaign tomorrow. Can feel it in my bones.
    You wouldn't stand down giving a speech at the Trocadero ffsake.

    My book is even more of a mess! Not terrible, just messy. Macron v Juppé is great, Juppé v Le Pen terrible.
    -411.5 Le Pen
    +207.49 Macron
    +358.36 Fillon
    +17.15 Juppe
    +20.59 Other
    +375.68 Baroin
    +95.64 Melenchon
    -152.31 Hamon
    Can we swap ;) though my worst mistake was selling Juppé five days ago.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited March 2017
    Mortimer said:



    Look at it this way. Calm, measured opposition gains ideological traction, fundraising and pan-national support.

    Marching on the coast doesn't convince the flyover states of the validity of liberal arguments.

    You're a soccer mom in Iowa - say - and voted for Trump despite some reservations. Marching makes the opposition look far too liberal to attract voters next time around.

    In your post you said 'real opposition', not 'persuading Rust Belt voters'. Those two things are not necessarily the same for a start.

    Secondly, Donald Trump was hardly 'calm, measured' during his campaign or even now - and he still won.

    Furthermore, the Women's March was (generally) calm and measured. It was a peaceful protest. Many die-hard Conservatives won't see protest as peaceful and calm because it is a method of opposition that is generally disliked by them. But the Left have employed methods of protest before on issues that they care about - and have won.

    Moreover, a 'Conservative' issue is not necessarily an issue which decides elections. It is likely to be issues such as the economy, healthcare, and immigration which will be significant in determining whether Rust Belt voters swing the Democrats way, as opposed to abortion.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,866
    Sean_F said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Can PBP and the Cross-Community Labour Party be described as "Nationalist"?

    No. Both are agnostic on the Border.
    Total Nationalist vote 39.70%, seats 39.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,094
    https://twitter.com/Fillon2017_fr/status/838125062100238336

    Soutiens Francois !
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,328
    The_Apocalypse said:

    Mortimer said:



    Look at it this way. Calm, measured opposition gains ideological traction, fundraising and pan-national support.

    Marching on the coast doesn't convince the flyover states of the validity of liberal arguments.

    You're a soccer mom in Iowa - say - and voted for Trump despite some reservations. Marching makes the opposition look far too liberal to attract voters next time around.

    In your post you said 'real opposition', not 'persuading Rust Belt voters'. Those two things are not necessarily the same for a start.

    Secondly, Donald Trump was hardly 'calm, measured' during his campaign or even now - and he still won.

    Furthermore, the Women's March was (generally) calm and measured. It was a peaceful protest. Many die-hard Conservatives won't see protest as peaceful and calm because it is a method of opposition that is generally disliked by them. But the Left have employed methods of protest before on issues that they care about - and have won.

    Moreover, a 'Conservative' issue is not necessarily an issue which decides elections. It is likely to be issues such as the economy, healthcare, and immigration which will be significant in determining whether Rust Belt voters swing the Democrats way, as opposed to abortion.
    The left sneaks the odd victory through non conventional means. Meanwhile the right and centre flourish by convincing voters....
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    Mortimer said:

    midwinter said:

    Mortimer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So Theresa might turn out to be a pound shop modern day David Lloyd George, overseeing the partition of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

    Might be worth getting behind our leader in turbulent times, no?
    Like IDS, Boris, Gove et al?
    Tory party didn't have a position on Brexit, remember?
    Breaking promises and resigning in a stage managed hissy fit is hardly supporting the Leader who won your party it's first majority in years though is it? Particularly when he's given you a job which evidently far exceeds your capabilities.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited March 2017
    Mortimer said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Mortimer said:



    Look at it this way. Calm, measured opposition gains ideological traction, fundraising and pan-national support.

    Marching on the coast doesn't convince the flyover states of the validity of liberal arguments.

    You're a soccer mom in Iowa - say - and voted for Trump despite some reservations. Marching makes the opposition look far too liberal to attract voters next time around.

    In your post you said 'real opposition', not 'persuading Rust Belt voters'. Those two things are not necessarily the same for a start.

    Secondly, Donald Trump was hardly 'calm, measured' during his campaign or even now - and he still won.

    Furthermore, the Women's March was (generally) calm and measured. It was a peaceful protest. Many die-hard Conservatives won't see protest as peaceful and calm because it is a method of opposition that is generally disliked by them. But the Left have employed methods of protest before on issues that they care about - and have won.

    Moreover, a 'Conservative' issue is not necessarily an issue which decides elections. It is likely to be issues such as the economy, healthcare, and immigration which will be significant in determining whether Rust Belt voters swing the Democrats way, as opposed to abortion.
    The left sneaks the odd victory through non conventional means. Meanwhile the right and centre flourish by convincing voters....
    The left's 'non-conventional' means, have actually convinced voters. Today, majority of Britons support the right for a woman to have access to abortion services. A vast majority of Britons support the notion of a state funded healthcare. It is the Left's activism concerning LGBT rights which as been significant turning public opinion around on the issue.

    The 'centre' contains politicians that tilt either slightly to the left or to the right - so it is not totally distinct from either the left or the right.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,356
    Looking at the NI constituency list, I get 'Down South', but shouldn't 'Down North' be 'Up North'?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    midwinter said:

    Mortimer said:

    midwinter said:

    Mortimer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So Theresa might turn out to be a pound shop modern day David Lloyd George, overseeing the partition of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

    Might be worth getting behind our leader in turbulent times, no?
    Like IDS, Boris, Gove et al?
    Tory party didn't have a position on Brexit, remember?
    Breaking promises and resigning in a stage managed hissy fit is hardly supporting the Leader who won your party it's first majority in years though is it? Particularly when he's given you a job which evidently far exceeds your capabilities.
    Who did that? Boris and Gove never resigned or broke any promises and remained cabinet ministers throughout. IDS did resign but not technically due to Brexit instead in a conflict with Osborne over benefit reforms.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,866
    SandyRentool said:

    Looking at the NI constituency list, I get 'Down South', but shouldn't 'Down North' be 'Up North'?

    Your plans are Foyled once again, Sandy!
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    The_Apocalypse said:

    Mortimer said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Mortimer said:



    Look at it this way. Calm, measured opposition gains ideological traction, fundraising and pan-national support.

    Marching on the coast doesn't convince the flyover states of the validity of liberal arguments.

    You're a soccer mom in Iowa - say - and voted for Trump despite some reservations. Marching makes the opposition look far too liberal to attract voters next time around.

    In your post you said 'real opposition', not 'persuading Rust Belt voters'. Those two things are not necessarily the same for a start.

    Secondly, Donald Trump was hardly 'calm, measured' during his campaign or even now - and he still won.

    Furthermore, the Women's March was (generally) calm and measured. It was a peaceful protest. Many die-hard Conservatives won't see protest as peaceful and calm because it is a method of opposition that is generally disliked by them. But the Left have employed methods of protest before on issues that they care about - and have won.

    Moreover, a 'Conservative' issue is not necessarily an issue which decides elections. It is likely to be issues such as the economy, healthcare, and immigration which will be significant in determining whether Rust Belt voters swing the Democrats way, as opposed to abortion.
    The left sneaks the odd victory through non conventional means. Meanwhile the right and centre flourish by convincing voters....
    The left's 'non-conventional' means, have actually convinced voters. Today, majority of Britons support the right for a woman to have access to abortion services. A vast majority of Britons support the notion of a state funded healthcare. It is the Left's activism concerning LGBT rights which as been significant turning public opinion around on the issue.

    The 'centre' contains politicians that tilt either slightly to the left or to the right - so it is not totally distinct from either the left or the right.
    All parties post war supported the notion of a state funded healthcare. It was a right wing PM who legalised LGBTQ marriage.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,866
    The_Apocalypse said:

    Mortimer said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Mortimer said:



    Look at it this way. Calm, measured opposition gains ideological traction, fundraising and pan-national support.

    Marching on the coast doesn't convince the flyover states of the validity of liberal arguments.

    You're a soccer mom in Iowa - say - and voted for Trump despite some reservations. Marching makes the opposition look far too liberal to attract voters next time around.

    In your post you said 'real opposition', not 'persuading Rust Belt voters'. Those two things are not necessarily the same for a start.

    Secondly, Donald Trump was hardly 'calm, measured' during his campaign or even now - and he still won.

    Furthermore, the Women's March was (generally) calm and measured. It was a peaceful protest. Many die-hard Conservatives won't see protest as peaceful and calm because it is a method of opposition that is generally disliked by them. But the Left have employed methods of protest before on issues that they care about - and have won.

    Moreover, a 'Conservative' issue is not necessarily an issue which decides elections. It is likely to be issues such as the economy, healthcare, and immigration which will be significant in determining whether Rust Belt voters swing the Democrats way, as opposed to abortion.
    The left sneaks the odd victory through non conventional means. Meanwhile the right and centre flourish by convincing voters....
    The left's 'non-conventional' means, have actually convinced voters. Today, majority of Britons support the right for a woman to have access to abortion services. A vast majority of Britons support the notion of a state funded healthcare. It is the Left's activism concerning LGBT rights which as been significant turning public opinion around on the issue.

    The 'centre' contains politicians that tilt either slightly to the left or to the right - so it is not totally distinct from either the left or the right.
    And the Left's cosying up to Islamists may reverse progress on women's rights and LGBT equality...
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,779
    Pulpstar said:

    TheWhiteRabbit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I think Fillon is going to set rocket burners under his campaign tomorrow. Can feel it in my bones.
    You wouldn't stand down giving a speech at the Trocadero ffsake.

    My book is even more of a mess! Not terrible, just messy. Macron v Juppé is great, Juppé v Le Pen terrible.
    -411.5 Le Pen
    +207.49 Macron
    +358.36 Fillon
    +17.15 Juppe
    +20.59 Other
    +375.68 Baroin
    +95.64 Melenchon
    -152.31 Hamon
    Mine is similar, except Fillon lower and Juppe higher, and that I've scaled down Baroin to 0 - never heard of him, surely he's not a serious contender?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,884
    Mr. Palmer, a lot of people said that about Corbyn in 2015...
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,101
    Philip_Thompson said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Mortimer said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Mortimer said:



    Look at it this way. Calm, measured opposition gains ideological traction, fundraising and pan-national support.

    Marching on the coast doesn't convince the flyover states of the validity of liberal arguments.

    You're a soccer mom in Iowa - say - and voted for Trump despite some reservations. Marching makes the opposition look far too liberal to attract voters next time around.

    In your post you said 'real opposition', not 'persuading Rust Belt voters'. Those two things are not necessarily the same for a start.

    Secondly, Donald Trump was hardly 'calm, measured' during his campaign or even now - and he still won.

    Furthermore, the Women's March was (generally) calm and measured. It was a peaceful protest. Many die-hard Conservatives won't see protest as peaceful and calm because it is a method of opposition that is generally disliked by them. But the Left have employed methods of protest before on issues that they care about - and have won.

    Moreover, a 'Conservative' issue is not necessarily an issue which decides elections. It is likely to be issues such as the economy, healthcare, and immigration which will be significant in determining whether Rust Belt voters swing the Democrats way, as opposed to abortion.
    The left sneaks the odd victory through non conventional means. Meanwhile the right and centre flourish by convincing voters....
    The left's 'non-conventional' means, have actually convinced voters. Today, majority of Britons support the right for a woman to have access to abortion services. A vast majority of Britons support the notion of a state funded healthcare. It is the Left's activism concerning LGBT rights which as been significant turning public opinion around on the issue.

    The 'centre' contains politicians that tilt either slightly to the left or to the right - so it is not totally distinct from either the left or the right.
    All parties post war supported the notion of a state funded healthcare. It was a right wing PM who legalised LGBTQ marriage.
    Though a majority of his party voted against it, just as it did at Holyrood.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited March 2017
    Philip_Thompson said:



    All parties post war supported the notion of a state funded healthcare. It was a right wing PM who legalised LGBTQ marriage.

    The notion of a state-funded healthcare is a socialist/leftist idea. William Beveridge was a liberal.

    I don't see what your point is re Cameron legalising LGBTQ. It was the Left who had been campaigning for LGBTQ rights for years while the Conservatives supported Section 28. It was not Conservatives who turned public opinion around on LGBTQ issues. If anything it was because of the turn around in public opinion that the Conservatives took on the Gay Marriage policy as a means to show that they had 'changed' and were different from how they were in the 1980s. Much of Cameron's social liberalism was in reaction to Tony Blair, and his and Labour's success in shifting the public that way during his time in office.
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    edited March 2017
    Philip_Thompson said:

    midwinter said:

    Mortimer said:

    midwinter said:

    Mortimer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So Theresa might turn out to be a pound shop modern day David Lloyd George, overseeing the partition of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

    Might be worth getting behind our leader in turbulent times, no?
    Like IDS, Boris, Gove et al?
    Tory party didn't have a position on Brexit, remember?
    Breaking promises and resigning in a stage managed hissy fit is hardly supporting the Leader who won your party it's first majority in years though is it? Particularly when he's given you a job which evidently far exceeds your capabilities.
    Who did that? Boris and Gove never resigned or broke any promises and remained cabinet ministers throughout. IDS did resign but not technically due to Brexit instead in a conflict with Osborne over benefit reforms.
    If you think the resignation of IDS was to do with anything other than Brexit I'd suggest you are slightly naive. I also believe I read here that Gove had assured Cameron his support for Leave would be far less enthusiastic than it turned out to be. As for Boris there are multiple quotes from him supporting membership of the EU prior to the referendum.

    So yeah not really supporting their leader. Or does that only apply if they're ideologically pure?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,866
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Mortimer said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Mortimer said:



    Look at it this way. Calm, measured opposition gains ideological traction, fundraising and pan-national support.

    Marching on the coast doesn't convince the flyover states of the validity of liberal arguments.

    You're a soccer mom in Iowa - say - and voted for Trump despite some reservations. Marching makes the opposition look far too liberal to attract voters next time around.

    In your post you said 'real opposition', not 'persuading Rust Belt voters'. Those two things are not necessarily the same for a start.

    Secondly, Donald Trump was hardly 'calm, measured' during his campaign or even now - and he still won.

    Furthermore, the Women's March was (generally) calm and measured. It was a peaceful protest. Many die-hard Conservatives won't see protest as peaceful and calm because it is a method of opposition that is generally disliked by them. But the Left have employed methods of protest before on issues that they care about - and have won.

    Moreover, a 'Conservative' issue is not necessarily an issue which decides elections. It is likely to be issues such as the economy, healthcare, and immigration which will be significant in determining whether Rust Belt voters swing the Democrats way, as opposed to abortion.
    The left sneaks the odd victory through non conventional means. Meanwhile the right and centre flourish by convincing voters....
    The left's 'non-conventional' means, have actually convinced voters. Today, majority of Britons support the right for a woman to have access to abortion services. A vast majority of Britons support the notion of a state funded healthcare. It is the Left's activism concerning LGBT rights which as been significant turning public opinion around on the issue.

    The 'centre' contains politicians that tilt either slightly to the left or to the right - so it is not totally distinct from either the left or the right.
    All parties post war supported the notion of a state funded healthcare. It was a right wing PM who legalised LGBTQ marriage.
    Though a majority of his party voted against it, just as it did at Holyrood.
    http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/david-mundell-slams-indy-blogger-9963256
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 10,086
    SandyRentool said:

    Looking at the NI constituency list, I get 'Down South', but shouldn't 'Down North' be 'Up North'?

    FAT LAD
    method to remember the six counties.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    SandyRentool said:

    Looking at the NI constituency list, I get 'Down South', but shouldn't 'Down North' be 'Up North'?

    Is it grim Down North?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,328
    edited March 2017
    The_Apocalypse said:

    Philip_Thompson said:



    All parties post war supported the notion of a state funded healthcare. It was a right wing PM who legalised LGBTQ marriage.

    The notion of a state-funded healthcare is a socialist/leftist idea. William Beveridge was a liberal.

    I don't see what your point is re Cameron legalising LGBTQ. It was the Left who had been campaigning for LGBTQ rights for years while the Conservatives supported Section 28. It was not Conservatives who turned public opinion around on LGBTQ issues. If anything it was because of the turn around in public opinion that the Conservatives took on the Gay Marriage policy as a means to show that they had 'changed' and were different from how they were in the 1980s. Much of Cameron's social liberalism was in reaction to Tony Blair, and his and Labour's success in shifting the public that way during his time in office.
    I struggle to keep up with the acronyms.

    Very cynical re: Cameron, but not re Blair. Strange, that.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Mortimer said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Mortimer said:



    Look at it this way. Calm, measured opposition gains ideological traction, fundraising and pan-national support.

    Marching on the coast doesn't convince the flyover states of the validity of liberal arguments.

    You're a soccer mom in Iowa - say - and voted for Trump despite some reservations. Marching makes the opposition look far too liberal to attract voters next time around.

    In your post you said 'real opposition', not 'persuading Rust Belt voters'. Those two things are not necessarily the same for a start.

    Secondly, Donald Trump was hardly 'calm, measured' during his campaign or even now - and he still won.

    Furthermore, the Women's March was (generally) calm and measured. It was a peaceful protest. Many die-hard Conservatives won't see protest as peaceful and calm because it is a method of opposition that is generally disliked by them. But the Left have employed methods of protest before on issues that they care about - and have won.

    Moreover, a 'Conservative' issue is not necessarily an issue which decides elections. It is likely to be issues such as the economy, healthcare, and immigration which will be significant in determining whether Rust Belt voters swing the Democrats way, as opposed to abortion.
    The left sneaks the odd victory through non conventional means. Meanwhile the right and centre flourish by convincing voters....
    The left's 'non-conventional' means, have actually convinced voters. Today, majority of Britons support the right for a woman to have access to abortion services. A vast majority of Britons support the notion of a state funded healthcare. It is the Left's activism concerning LGBT rights which as been significant turning public opinion around on the issue.

    The 'centre' contains politicians that tilt either slightly to the left or to the right - so it is not totally distinct from either the left or the right.
    All parties post war supported the notion of a state funded healthcare. It was a right wing PM who legalised LGBTQ marriage.
    Though a majority of his party voted against it, just as it did at Holyrood.
    That's not true, is it? This says 45% against: https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/interactive/2013/feb/06/gay-marriage-vote-map-mp#party
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,525
    midwinter said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    midwinter said:

    Mortimer said:

    midwinter said:

    Mortimer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So Theresa might turn out to be a pound shop modern day David Lloyd George, overseeing the partition of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

    Might be worth getting behind our leader in turbulent times, no?
    Like IDS, Boris, Gove et al?
    Tory party didn't have a position on Brexit, remember?
    Breaking promises and resigning in a stage managed hissy fit is hardly supporting the Leader who won your party it's first majority in years though is it? Particularly when he's given you a job which evidently far exceeds your capabilities.
    Who did that? Boris and Gove never resigned or broke any promises and remained cabinet ministers throughout. IDS did resign but not technically due to Brexit instead in a conflict with Osborne over benefit reforms.
    If you think the resignation of IDS was to do with anything other than Brexit I'd suggest you are slightly naive. I also believe I read here that Gove had assured Cameron his support for Leave would be far less enthusiastic than it turned out to be. As for Boris there are multiple quotes from him supporting membership of the EU prior to the referendum.

    So yeah not really supporting their leader. Or does that only apply if they're ideologically pure?
    Ministers were free to support Brexit. The vote wasn't whipped.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,094
    West Belfast standing on its own there a bit like West Berlin used to !
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    edited March 2017
    Sean_F said:

    midwinter said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    midwinter said:

    Mortimer said:

    midwinter said:

    Mortimer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So Theresa might turn out to be a pound shop modern day David Lloyd George, overseeing the partition of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

    Might be worth getting behind our leader in turbulent times, no?
    Like IDS, Boris, Gove et al?
    Tory party didn't have a position on Brexit, remember?
    Breaking promises and resigning in a stage managed hissy fit is hardly supporting the Leader who won your party it's first majority in years though is it? Particularly when he's given you a job which evidently far exceeds your capabilities.
    Who did that? Boris and Gove never resigned or broke any promises and remained cabinet ministers throughout. IDS did resign but not technically due to Brexit instead in a conflict with Osborne over benefit reforms.
    If you think the resignation of IDS was to do with anything other than Brexit I'd suggest you are slightly naive. I also believe I read here that Gove had assured Cameron his support for Leave would be far less enthusiastic than it turned out to be. As for Boris there are multiple quotes from him supporting membership of the EU prior to the referendum.

    So yeah not really supporting their leader. Or does that only apply if they're ideologically pure?
    Ministers were free to support Brexit. The vote wasn't whipped.
    Irrelevant to the point I'm making which is that it seems that supporters of the right wing of the Tory party appear to expect everyone to rally round a leader in "turbulent times" despite having a history of doing the polar opposite when it suits them.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,866
    Pulpstar said:

    West Belfast standing on its own there a bit like West Berlin used to !

    But at council ward level, there is a connection to Lough Neagh...

    http://cain.ulst.ac.uk/images/maps/map12.htm
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,328
    midwinter said:

    Sean_F said:

    midwinter said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    midwinter said:

    Mortimer said:

    midwinter said:

    Mortimer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So Theresa might turn out to be a pound shop modern day David Lloyd George, overseeing the partition of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

    Might be worth getting behind our leader in turbulent times, no?
    Like IDS, Boris, Gove et al?
    Tory party didn't have a position on Brexit, remember?
    Breaking promises and resigning in a stage managed hissy fit is hardly supporting the Leader who won your party it's first majority in years though is it? Particularly when he's given you a job which evidently far exceeds your capabilities.
    Who did that? Boris and Gove never resigned or broke any promises and remained cabinet ministers throughout. IDS did resign but not technically due to Brexit instead in a conflict with Osborne over benefit reforms.
    If you think the resignation of IDS was to do with anything other than Brexit I'd suggest you are slightly naive. I also believe I read here that Gove had assured Cameron his support for Leave would be far less enthusiastic than it turned out to be. As for Boris there are multiple quotes from him supporting membership of the EU prior to the referendum.

    So yeah not really supporting their leader. Or does that only apply if they're ideologically pure?
    Ministers were free to support Brexit. The vote wasn't whipped.
    Irrelevant to the point I'm making.
    The point being Cameroons good, others bad?
  • William_HWilliam_H Posts: 346
    ThreeQuidder said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Mortimer said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Mortimer said:



    Look at it this way. Calm, measured opposition gains ideological traction, fundraising and pan-national support.

    Marching on the coast doesn't convince the flyover states of the validity of liberal arguments.

    You're a soccer mom in Iowa - say - and voted for Trump despite some reservations. Marching makes the opposition look far too liberal to attract voters next time around.

    In your post you said 'real opposition', not 'persuading Rust Belt voters'. Those two things are not necessarily the same for a start.

    Secondly, Donald Trump was hardly 'calm, measured' during his campaign or even now - and he still won.

    Furthermore, the Women's March was (generally) calm and measured. It was a peaceful protest. Many die-hard Conservatives won't see protest as peaceful and calm because it is a method of opposition that is generally disliked by them. But the Left have employed methods of protest before on issues that they care about - and have won.

    Moreover, a 'Conservative' issue is not necessarily an issue which decides elections. It is likely to be issues such as the economy, healthcare, and immigration which will be significant in determining whether Rust Belt voters swing the Democrats way, as opposed to abortion.
    The left sneaks the odd victory through non conventional means. Meanwhile the right and centre flourish by convincing voters....
    The left's 'non-conventional' means, have actually convinced voters. Today, majority of Britons support the right for a woman to have access to abortion services. A vast majority of Britons support the notion of a state funded healthcare. It is the Left's activism concerning LGBT rights which as been significant turning public opinion around on the issue.

    The 'centre' contains politicians that tilt either slightly to the left or to the right - so it is not totally distinct from either the left or the right.
    All parties post war supported the notion of a state funded healthcare. It was a right wing PM who legalised LGBTQ marriage.
    Though a majority of his party voted against it, just as it did at Holyrood.
    That's not true, is it? This says 45% against: https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/interactive/2013/feb/06/gay-marriage-vote-map-mp#party
    There were a number of abstentions. A majority of those who voted, voted against, 117-127
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,707
    https://twitter.com/kevcunningham/status/838121598888644608
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,328
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/kevcunningham/status/838121598888644608

    Not an overwhelming embrace of Norn Iron by the Republic, then....
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    Mortimer said:

    midwinter said:

    Sean_F said:

    midwinter said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    midwinter said:

    Mortimer said:

    midwinter said:

    Mortimer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So Theresa might turn out to be a pound shop modern day David Lloyd George, overseeing the partition of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

    Might be worth getting behind our leader in turbulent times, no?
    Like IDS, Boris, Gove et al?
    Tory party didn't have a position on Brexit, remember?
    Breaking promises and resigning in a stage managed hissy fit is hardly supporting the Leader who won your party it's first majority in years though is it? Particularly when he's given you a job which evidently far exceeds your capabilities.
    Who did that? Boris and Gove never resigned or broke any promises and remained cabinet ministers throughout. IDS did resign but not technically due to Brexit instead in a conflict with Osborne over benefit reforms.
    If you think the resignation of IDS was to do with anything other than Brexit I'd suggest you are slightly naive. I also believe I read here that Gove had assured Cameron his support for Leave would be far less enthusiastic than it turned out to be. As for Boris there are multiple quotes from him supporting membership of the EU prior to the referendum.

    So yeah not really supporting their leader. Or does that only apply if they're ideologically pure?
    Ministers were free to support Brexit. The vote wasn't whipped.
    Irrelevant to the point I'm making.
    The point being Cameroons good, others bad?
    Not at all I accept he was on the wrong side of the European argument. The sudden notion of unswerving loyalty to our beloved leader amuses me somewhat however.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,707
    https://twitter.com/StephenNolan/status/838128294461640708
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 45,101
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Mortimer said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Mortimer said:



    Look at it this way. Calm, measured opposition gains ideological traction, fundraising and pan-national support.

    Marching on the coast doesn't convince the flyover states of the validity of liberal arguments.

    You're a soccer mom in Iowa - say - and voted for Trump despite some reservations. Marching makes the opposition look far too liberal to attract voters next time around.

    In your post you said 'real opposition', not 'persuading Rust Belt voters'. Those two things are not necessarily the same for a start.

    Secondly, Donald Trump was hardly 'calm, measured' during his campaign or even now - and he still won.

    Furthermore, the Women's March was (generally) calm and measured. It was a peaceful protest. Many die-hard Conservatives won't see protest as peaceful and calm because it is a method of opposition that is generally disliked by them. But the Left have employed methods of protest before on issues that they care about - and have won.

    Moreover, a 'Conservative' issue is not necessarily an issue which decides elections. It is likely to be issues such as the economy, healthcare, and immigration which will be significant in determining whether Rust Belt voters swing the Democrats way, as opposed to abortion.
    The left sneaks the odd victory through non conventional means. Meanwhile the right and centre flourish by convincing voters....
    The left's 'non-conventional' means, have actually convinced voters. Today, majority of Britons support the right for a woman to have access to abortion services. A vast majority of Britons support the notion of a state funded healthcare. It is the Left's activism concerning LGBT rights which as been significant turning public opinion around on the issue.

    The 'centre' contains politicians that tilt either slightly to the left or to the right - so it is not totally distinct from either the left or the right.
    All parties post war supported the notion of a state funded healthcare. It was a right wing PM who legalised LGBTQ marriage.
    Though a majority of his party voted against it, just as it did at Holyrood.
    http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/david-mundell-slams-indy-blogger-9963256
    Wee Davie Mundell who voted against the repeal of Clause 28 at Holyrood?
    There's no hypocrite like one recently emerged from the closet.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,328
    edited March 2017
    midwinter said:

    Sean_F said:

    midwinter said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    midwinter said:

    Mortimer said:

    midwinter said:

    Mortimer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So Theresa might turn out to be a pound shop modern day David Lloyd George, overseeing the partition of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

    Might be worth getting behind our leader in turbulent times, no?
    Like IDS, Boris, Gove et al?
    Tory party didn't have a position on Brexit, remember?
    Breaking promises and resigning in a stage managed hissy fit is hardly supporting the Leader who won your party it's first majority in years though is it? Particularly when he's given you a job which evidently far exceeds your capabilities.
    Who did that? Boris and Gove never resigned or broke any promises and remained cabinet ministers throughout. IDS did resign but not technically due to Brexit instead in a conflict with Osborne over benefit reforms.
    If you think the resignation of IDS was to do with anything other than Brexit I'd suggest you are slightly naive. I also believe I read here that Gove had assured Cameron his support for Leave would be far less enthusiastic than it turned out to be. As for Boris there are multiple quotes from him supporting membership of the EU prior to the referendum.

    So yeah not really supporting their leader. Or does that only apply if they're ideologically pure?
    Ministers were free to support Brexit. The vote wasn't whipped.
    Irrelevant to the point I'm making which is that it seems that supporters of the right wing of the Tory party appear to expect everyone to rally round a leader in "turbulent times" despite having a history of doing the polar opposite when it suits them.
    When what you call 'Turbulent times' is actually insulting much of their own parliamentary and activist party, it is no huge surprise....
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,328
    edited March 2017
    midwinter said:

    Mortimer said:

    midwinter said:

    Sean_F said:

    midwinter said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    midwinter said:

    Mortimer said:

    midwinter said:

    Mortimer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So Theresa might turn out to be a pound shop modern day David Lloyd George, overseeing the partition of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

    Might be worth getting behind our leader in turbulent times, no?
    Like IDS, Boris, Gove et al?
    Tory party didn't have a position on Brexit, remember?
    Breaking promises and resigning in a stage managed hissy fit is hardly supporting the Leader who won your party it's first majority in years though is it? Particularly when he's given you a job which evidently far exceeds your capabilities.
    Who did that? Boris and Gove never resigned or broke any promises and remained cabinet ministers throughout. IDS did resign but not technically due to Brexit instead in a conflict with Osborne over benefit reforms.
    If you think the resignation of IDS was to do with anything other than Brexit I'd suggest you are slightly naive. I also believe I read here that Gove had assured Cameron his support for Leave would be far less enthusiastic than it turned out to be. As for Boris there are multiple quotes from him supporting membership of the EU prior to the referendum.

    So yeah not really supporting their leader. Or does that only apply if they're ideologically pure?
    Ministers were free to support Brexit. The vote wasn't whipped.
    Irrelevant to the point I'm making.
    The point being Cameroons good, others bad?
    Not at all I accept he was on the wrong side of the European argument. The sudden notion of unswerving loyalty to our beloved leader amuses me somewhat however.
    When my leader is loyal towards the party, I'm loyal towards them.

    When they become as good as Lib Dems whilst in office, I tend otherwise...
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,866
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Mortimer said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    Mortimer said:



    Look at it this way. Calm, measured opposition gains ideological traction, fundraising and pan-national support.

    Marching on the coast doesn't convince the flyover states of the validity of liberal arguments.

    You're a soccer mom in Iowa - say - and voted for Trump despite some reservations. Marching makes the opposition look far too liberal to attract voters next time around.

    In your post you said 'real opposition', not 'persuading Rust Belt voters'. Those two things are not necessarily the same for a start.

    Secondly, Donald Trump was hardly 'calm, measured' during his campaign or even now - and he still won.

    Furthermore, the Women's March was (generally) calm and measured. It was a peaceful protest. Many die-hard Conservatives won't see protest as peaceful and calm because it is a method of opposition that is generally disliked by them. But the Left have employed methods of protest before on issues that they care about - and have won.

    Moreover, a 'Conservative' issue is not necessarily an issue which decides elections. It is likely to be issues such as the economy, healthcare, and immigration which will be significant in determining whether Rust Belt voters swing the Democrats way, as opposed to abortion.
    The left sneaks the odd victory through non conventional means. Meanwhile the right and centre flourish by convincing voters....
    The left's 'non-conventional' means, have actually convinced voters. Today, majority of Britons support the right for a woman to have access to abortion services. A vast majority of Britons support the notion of a state funded healthcare. It is the Left's activism concerning LGBT rights which as been significant turning public opinion around on the issue.

    The 'centre' contains politicians that tilt either slightly to the left or to the right - so it is not totally distinct from either the left or the right.
    All parties post war supported the notion of a state funded healthcare. It was a right wing PM who legalised LGBTQ marriage.
    Though a majority of his party voted against it, just as it did at Holyrood.
    http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/scottish-news/david-mundell-slams-indy-blogger-9963256
    Wee Davie Mundell who voted against the repeal of Clause 28 at Holyrood?
    There's no hypocrite like one recently emerged from the closet.
    Why are Nationalists like WingsOverScotland so homophobic?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,884
    Mr. Eagles, a Foster-Fillon Sunday Special?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,707
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, a Foster-Fillon Sunday Special?

    Gawd I hope not, I need a quiet Sunday.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,884
    Mr. Eagles, that almost guarantees it. :D
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,094
    Arlene Foster's position looks dire to me.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    The_Apocalypse said:

    Philip_Thompson said:



    All parties post war supported the notion of a state funded healthcare. It was a right wing PM who legalised LGBTQ marriage.

    The notion of a state-funded healthcare is a socialist/leftist idea. William Beveridge was a liberal.

    I don't see what your point is re Cameron legalising LGBTQ. It was the Left who had been campaigning for LGBTQ rights for years while the Conservatives supported Section 28. It was not Conservatives who turned public opinion around on LGBTQ issues. If anything it was because of the turn around in public opinion that the Conservatives took on the Gay Marriage policy as a means to show that they had 'changed' and were different from how they were in the 1980s. Much of Cameron's social liberalism was in reaction to Tony Blair, and his and Labour's success in shifting the public that way during his time in office.
    I think you think history started about the time of the Beatles' first LP. What opened the crack in the dam over gay rights was the Wolfenden Report, commissioned by a Churchill government. Everything since is really just footnotes to Wolfenden. And it is not the case that we have an NHS because of a lot of dweebs marching around chanting "What do we want? When do we want it? etc.
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    edited March 2017
    Mortimer said:

    midwinter said:

    Mortimer said:

    midwinter said:

    Sean_F said:

    midwinter said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    midwinter said:

    Mortimer said:

    midwinter said:

    Mortimer said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    So Theresa might turn out to be a pound shop modern day David Lloyd George, overseeing the partition of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.

    Might be worth getting behind our leader in turbulent times, no?
    Like IDS, Boris, Gove et al?
    Tory party didn't have a position on Brexit, remember?
    Breaking promises and resigning in a stage managed hissy fit is hardly supporting the Leader who won your party it's first majority in years though is it? Particularly when he's given you a job which evidently far exceeds your capabilities.
    Who did that? Boris and Gove never resigned or broke any promises and remained cabinet ministers throughout. IDS did resign but not technically due to Brexit instead in a conflict with Osborne over benefit reforms.
    If you think the resignation of IDS was to do with anything other than Brexit I'd suggest you are slightly naive. I also believe I read here that Gove had assured Cameron his support for Leave would be far less enthusiastic than it turned out to be. As for Boris there are multiple quotes from him supporting membership of the EU prior to the referendum.

    So yeah not really supporting their leader. Or does that only apply if they're ideologically pure?
    Ministers were free to support Brexit. The vote wasn't whipped.
    Irrelevant to the point I'm making.
    The point being Cameroons good, others bad?
    Not at all I accept he was on the wrong side of the European argument. The sudden notion of unswerving loyalty to our beloved leader amuses me somewhat however.
    When my leader is loyal towards the party, I'm loyal towards them.

    When they become as good as Lib Dems whilst in office, I tend otherwise...
    Cameron probably thought that people who based their entire political philosophy on one issue were crazy. Hardly makes him a Lib Dem does it.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,707
    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/838138169136726018
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,884
    I'm just reading the introduction to Josephus' The Jewish War, and thought this section worth reciting:
    ".... of the fanaticism of rival factions and the tensions between them, of the miseries of the ordinary people caught up willy-nilly in events which they could not control ..."
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,707
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, that almost guarantees it. :D

    But one of my threads tomorrow has been written and it contains a very subtle 90s pop music reference in the headline.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,884
    Mr. Eagles, is it something like "tell you what I want, I really really want"?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,707
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, is it something like "tell you what I want, I really really want"?

    Much more subtler than that.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,884
    Mr. Eagles, is it the lyrics to 2 Unlimited's No Limit?
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited March 2017
    Essential viewing/listening for anyone who thinks 1948 Labour is even vaguely similar to the ramblings associated with Labour these days;


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9rqyzWzDONQ


  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,946
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/838138169136726018

    WOW! The Donald really does have little... Hands doesn't he? :smiley:
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,866
    GIN1138 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/838138169136726018

    WOW! The Donald really does have little... Hands doesn't he? :smiley:
    YUGE!!!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,707
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, is it the lyrics to 2 Unlimited's No Limit?

    No, no, no, no, no, no!
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    You seem to have the wrong votes for DUP and SF http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/ni2017/results
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited March 2017
    midwinter said:

    Cameron probably thought that people who based their entire political philosophy on one issue were crazy. Hardly makes him a Lib Dem does it.

    Don't ask people what they think of an issue then be surprised when they answer. That's like asking a group of people if they want Chinese or Indian for dinner then getting angry that they said Chinese while you wanted Indian. Don't give a choice if you aren't happy with both outcomes.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,707
    https://twitter.com/StephenNolan/status/838138274371747840
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,884
    As an aside, endnotes in books, rather than footnotes, are the work of Satan. Who the hell (excepting Beelzebub) thinks that it's better to have to consult the back of the book rather than have a footnote?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 25,753
    edited March 2017
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Why are Nationalists like WingsOverScotland so homophobic?

    Small sample size, Dr Prasannan. Famously, SinnFein and the ANC eventually had a pro-gay stance.
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    DUP margin over SF was only 1,168
This discussion has been closed.

© Vanilla Keystone Theme 2025