politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The PB/Polling Matters podcast: After the by-elections what ne
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The PB/Polling Matters podcast: After the by-elections what next for LAB/Corbyn/UKIP plus a look at Northern Ireland
On this week’s podcast, Keiran is joined by Adam Drummond of Opinium and Matt Singh of Number Cruncher Politics.
Comments
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First - like Mrs May!0
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Second, like Labour in Gorton. Worked there for a bit, a long, long time ago0
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Going to listen to it in bits and pieces (can't write and listen to discussion at the same time) but there's an early nails-on-blackboard moment.
"Semi-historic"?!
I do like Mr. Pedley, but that's a step away from "quite unique".0 -
What an utter knob John McDonnell is.
He's proposing people earning over £1 million per annum publish their tax returns.
So he's only gone and published, inter alia, his tax return, replete with his full address, NI number, his unique tax reference number, and his employer reference.
If he doesn't become the victim of identity theft and/or fraud, it'll be a miracle.0 -
Safe in their hands? No.TheScreamingEagles said:What an utter knob John McDonnell is.
He's proposing people earning over £1 million per annum publish their tax returns.
So he's only gone and published, inter alia, his tax return, replete with his full address, NI number, his unique tax reference number, and his employer reference.
If he doesn't become the victim of identity theft and/or fraud, it'll be a miracle.0 -
The Northern Ireland election seems completely pointless to me, destined to produce a very similar result to last year's.0
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Mr. Eagles, sounds like a chap who can be trusted to be Shadow Chancellor.
Ahem.0 -
I'm on a whole bunch of tips from Lucian Fletcher. Jemma Dolan @ 15-8 (Sinn Fein, advised #1 on the ballot in F&ST) looks to be the pick of the bunch (Into 4-9 now)Sean_F said:The Northern Ireland election seems completely pointless to me, destined to produce a very similar result to last year's.
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Surely as a true socialist he sees it not as identity theft but redistribution?TheScreamingEagles said:What an utter knob John McDonnell is.
He's proposing people earning over £1 million per annum publish their tax returns.
So he's only gone and published, inter alia, his tax return, replete with his full address, NI number, his unique tax reference number, and his employer reference.
If he doesn't become the victim of identity theft and/or fraud, it'll be a miracle.0 -
Spare a thought for Rick Astley.
I hear Rick Astley really struggles with Lent.0 -
Careful with that. It's not quite the shoo-in you suggest. Sinn Fein are MASTERS of ballot balancing. There are 6 DEAs in F&ST. Each of their 3 candidates is advised as 1, 2, 3 in 2 od the DEAs. Jemma is advised 1 in Erne North and Enniskillen. Michelle Gildernew advised 1 in Dungannon and the Clogher Valley (and as the former MP IS the shoo-in for SF). Sean Lynch is advised number 1 in Erne West and Erne East.Pulpstar said:
I'm on a whole bunch of tips from Lucian Fletcher. Jemma Dolan @ 15-8 (Sinn Fein, advised #1 on the ballot in F&ST) looks to be the pick of the bunch (Into 4-9 now)Sean_F said:The Northern Ireland election seems completely pointless to me, destined to produce a very similar result to last year's.
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Well that's what the betting says, certainly. But I've been hearing the SDLP talking up their chances in a couple of very unlikely spots. Which could indicate a movement few have seen (or I'm hearing bullshine).Sean_F said:The Northern Ireland election seems completely pointless to me, destined to produce a very similar result to last year's.
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He's also a very firm Unionist.TheScreamingEagles said:Spare a thought for Rick Astley.
I hear Rick Astley really struggles with Lent.0 -
POTDHYUFD said:
Surely as a true socialist he sees it not as identity theft but redistribution?TheScreamingEagles said:What an utter knob John McDonnell is.
He's proposing people earning over £1 million per annum publish their tax returns.
So he's only gone and published, inter alia, his tax return, replete with his full address, NI number, his unique tax reference number, and his employer reference.
If he doesn't become the victim of identity theft and/or fraud, it'll be a miracle.
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The McDonnell tendency keep coming up with this tax return bollox, they never quite seem to appreciate that the bit people are avoiding paying tax on, if any, don't actually appear on their tax return! There is no section labelled "Secret Cayman Islands Account don't tax me on this please".TheScreamingEagles said:What an utter knob John McDonnell is.
He's proposing people earning over £1 million per annum publish their tax returns.
So he's only gone and published, inter alia, his tax return, replete with his full address, NI number, his unique tax reference number, and his employer reference.
If he doesn't become the victim of identity theft and/or fraud, it'll be a miracle.0 -
It's the way you tell them...TheScreamingEagles said:Spare a thought for Rick Astley.
I hear Rick Astley really struggles with Lent.0 -
I've been hearing the SDLP talk up their chances in every election for 15 years.Lucian_Fletcher said:
Well that's what the betting says, certainly. But I've been hearing the SDLP talking up their chances in a couple of very unlikely spots. Which could indicate a movement few have seen (or I'm hearing bullshine).Sean_F said:The Northern Ireland election seems completely pointless to me, destined to produce a very similar result to last year's.
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Re FPT
I have quite a few student friends living in Gorton, so I'll be reporting back on events there.
My prediction is an impressive Lab to Lib Dem swing in that seat as Sir Gerald Kaufman's personal vote unwinds, and the Lib Dems get a Brexit boost, but a Lab hold.
https://twitter.com/JenWilliamsMEN/status/8372129752200151040 -
The importance of the Northern Ireland election is the stalemate and return to direct rule that it is likely to emerge. In other words the May government will be facing BREXIT, a Scottish referendum and direct rule in NI at the same time.
One of the arts of politics is to avoid such a conjunction of events. Testimony to a limited inflexible and inexperienced Prime Minister.0 -
Just one question - you did consider the seat reduction from 6 to generally 5 when assessing the odds :> ?Lucian_Fletcher said:
Careful with that. It's not quite the shoo-in you suggest. Sinn Fein are MASTERS of ballot balancing. There are 6 DEAs in F&ST. Each of their 3 candidates is advised as 1, 2, 3 in 2 od the DEAs. Jemma is advised 1 in Erne North and Enniskillen. Michelle Gildernew advised 1 in Dungannon and the Clogher Valley (and as the former MP IS the shoo-in for SF). Sean Lynch is advised number 1 in Erne West and Erne East.Pulpstar said:
I'm on a whole bunch of tips from Lucian Fletcher. Jemma Dolan @ 15-8 (Sinn Fein, advised #1 on the ballot in F&ST) looks to be the pick of the bunch (Into 4-9 now)Sean_F said:The Northern Ireland election seems completely pointless to me, destined to produce a very similar result to last year's.
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This morning's Red Box email says Mrs May is likely to hold a reshuffle in September.
Clearly she's not learned from Dave's good practice.
Liz Truss is on her way out, so it ain't all bad.0 -
Luthfur Rahman ? Wasn't he banned from holding public office for five years ?TheScreamingEagles said:Re FPT
I have quite a few student friends living in Gorton, so I'll be reporting back on events there.
My prediction is an impressive Lab to Lib Dem swing in that seat as Sir Gerald Kaufman's personal vote unwinds, and the Lib Dems get a Brexit boost, but a Lab hold.
https://twitter.com/JenWilliamsMEN/status/8372129752200151040 -
That was Lutfur Rahman, this is Luthfur Rahman.AlsoIndigo said:
Luthfur Rahman ? Wasn't he banned from holding public office for five years ?TheScreamingEagles said:Re FPT
I have quite a few student friends living in Gorton, so I'll be reporting back on events there.
My prediction is an impressive Lab to Lib Dem swing in that seat as Sir Gerald Kaufman's personal vote unwinds, and the Lib Dems get a Brexit boost, but a Lab hold.
https://twitter.com/JenWilliamsMEN/status/8372129752200151040 -
Delay the Scottish Referendum until we've left the EU, obvs.scotslass said:The importance of the Northern Ireland election is the stalemate and return to direct rule that it is likely to emerge. In other words the May government will be facing BREXIT, a Scottish referendum and direct rule in NI at the same time.
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TheScreamingEagles said:
This morning's Red Box email says Mrs May is likely to hold a reshuffle in September.
Clearly she's not learned from Dave's good practice.
Liz Truss is on her way out, so it ain't all bad.
It rather depends on how extensive the reshuffle is......would Dave's 'good practice' involve rehiring Letwin?0 -
Good, if there is one section of public sector workers that have been badly treated - it ain't the Doctors, it ain't the teachers, it is the prison officers.TheScreamingEagles said:This morning's Red Box email says Mrs May is likely to hold a reshuffle in September.
Clearly she's not learned from Dave's good practice.
Liz Truss is on her way out, so it ain't all bad.
Severely under appreciated by the government and also underpaid too by the sounds of things.0 -
"When we invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty which sets us off on a two-year negotiation to leave the EU, part of that renegotiations is what happens to retired people from Britain living on the Costa del Sol and what happens to people from Warsaw living in London
Let me make this clear, during our divorce negotiations, even if the EU was to behave badly and say [British] people living in Spain were to be threatened with not being there, we would maintain the line that we believe in the rule of law, we believe in British justice and we believe that anyone who has come to Britain legally has the right to remain."
The nice party. Please distinguish between ukip & the loony nasty leavers @AlastairMeeks
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-301116940 -
Or kicking Gove out of education and turning a friend into a dangerous enemy?CarlottaVance said:TheScreamingEagles said:This morning's Red Box email says Mrs May is likely to hold a reshuffle in September.
Clearly she's not learned from Dave's good practice.
Liz Truss is on her way out, so it ain't all bad.
It rather depends on how extensive the reshuffle is......would Dave's 'good practice' involve rehiring Letwin?0 -
They say he's also obsessive about former girlfriends.Lucian_Fletcher said:
He's also a very firm Unionist.TheScreamingEagles said:Spare a thought for Rick Astley.
I hear Rick Astley really struggles with Lent.
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Aha, thanksPulpstar said:
That was Lutfur Rahman, this is Luthfur Rahman.AlsoIndigo said:
Luthfur Rahman ? Wasn't he banned from holding public office for five years ?TheScreamingEagles said:Re FPT
I have quite a few student friends living in Gorton, so I'll be reporting back on events there.
My prediction is an impressive Lab to Lib Dem swing in that seat as Sir Gerald Kaufman's personal vote unwinds, and the Lib Dems get a Brexit boost, but a Lab hold.
https://twitter.com/JenWilliamsMEN/status/837212975220015104
Still might be a little awkward at the selection hearing if people don't look closely 
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They all look the same to you.AlsoIndigo said:
Luthfur Rahman ? Wasn't he banned from holding public office for five years ?TheScreamingEagles said:Re FPT
I have quite a few student friends living in Gorton, so I'll be reporting back on events there.
My prediction is an impressive Lab to Lib Dem swing in that seat as Sir Gerald Kaufman's personal vote unwinds, and the Lib Dems get a Brexit boost, but a Lab hold.
https://twitter.com/JenWilliamsMEN/status/837212975220015104
You're thinking of Lutfur Rahman
This is Luthfur Rahman.0 -
LR say they don't have a plan B should Fillon withdraw from the Presidential race.
Maybe this should be their plan B!!
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/02/a-goat-would-beat-le-pen-in-frances-presidential-election-political-analyst-says.html0 -
I'd say in terms of pay and conditions private soldiers in the army have it alot worse. Average prison officer pay is a smidgeon over 21k. Privates a smidgeon under 20k. But the terms and conditions in the army are much more demanding.Pulpstar said:
Good, if there is one section of public sector workers that have been badly treated - it ain't the Doctors, it ain't the teachers, it is the prison officers.TheScreamingEagles said:This morning's Red Box email says Mrs May is likely to hold a reshuffle in September.
Clearly she's not learned from Dave's good practice.
Liz Truss is on her way out, so it ain't all bad.
Severely under appreciated by the government and also underpaid too by the sounds of things.
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Well quite, and giving that housetrained airhead Nicky Morgan ideas beyond her abilities at the same time.Carolus_Rex said:
Or kicking Gove out of education and turning a friend into a dangerous enemy?CarlottaVance said:TheScreamingEagles said:This morning's Red Box email says Mrs May is likely to hold a reshuffle in September.
Clearly she's not learned from Dave's good practice.
Liz Truss is on her way out, so it ain't all bad.
It rather depends on how extensive the reshuffle is......would Dave's 'good practice' involve rehiring Letwin?0 -
They all look the same to you.TheScreamingEagles said:
They all look the same to you.AlsoIndigo said:
Luthfur Rahman ? Wasn't he banned from holding public office for five years ?TheScreamingEagles said:Re FPT
I have quite a few student friends living in Gorton, so I'll be reporting back on events there.
My prediction is an impressive Lab to Lib Dem swing in that seat as Sir Gerald Kaufman's personal vote unwinds, and the Lib Dems get a Brexit boost, but a Lab hold.
https://twitter.com/JenWilliamsMEN/status/837212975220015104
You're thinking of Lutfur Rahman
This is Luthfur Rahman.
Seems a little cheap considering my current lifestyle
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Mr. G, they should bloody well get a plan B then.0
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If you're a private in the army then there is the potential for adventure, advancement as well as subsidised housing. Its more your life than just a job !Patrick said:
I'd say in terms of pay and conditions private soldiers in the army have it alot worse. Average prison officer pay is a smidgeon over 21k. Privates a smidgeon under 20k. But the terms and conditions in the army are much more demanding.Pulpstar said:
Good, if there is one section of public sector workers that have been badly treated - it ain't the Doctors, it ain't the teachers, it is the prison officers.TheScreamingEagles said:This morning's Red Box email says Mrs May is likely to hold a reshuffle in September.
Clearly she's not learned from Dave's good practice.
Liz Truss is on her way out, so it ain't all bad.
Severely under appreciated by the government and also underpaid too by the sounds of things.
The army has its own issues of course - the number of chiefs should probably be vastly cut... but I don't think it makes the current prison officer situation better.
I'm not sure how the pensions compare, but my colleague will receive an excellent pension compared to his time and wages served during from his navy stint. Is it so good for prison officers ?0 -
FPT
@kle4
I didn't say that all those who disagreed with me were right-wing. You've just mentioned this place is right-leaning: well that is what it was a comment on.
Secondly, I didn't say you were right-wing specifically either.
Thirdly, I didn't typify the alternative view as a right-wing together either. It was in response to someone who wasn't engaging with my argument at all by providing an alternative view, but dismissed my argument entirely. The dismissive attitude, and the idea that my alternative view should not be put forward was what caused the 'right-wing get together comment.' I thought that was fairly obvious, given that in my exchanges with you I never actually characterised your disagreement with me as 'right-wing'. Nor did I ever explicitly define terms of this debate in ideological terms. Your reply to me is filled with accusations of things I never actually said.
Nor did I said that my argument wasn't my opinion. The difference is, is that I did not dismiss all other arguments, but I tried to make my case. (And again I'm not accusing YOU of dismissing my opinion).
As for your last question: because politicians do stupid things. It was a dumb thing for May to do, but it was hardly the crime of the century. If I disliked a politician over this one thing, then I'd probably hate most of them, given they have all made silly comments over the years. Indeed I didn't actually intend to get into a heated argument over this. A similar observation in regard to May's comment was made previously, and funnily enough there wasn't all that much debate about it. Yet there is now....
Really, if people are going to disagree with me, disagree with me on things I actually say. This is not the first time on this site that criticisms have been brought my way on statements I've never said.0 -
LOL!!!TheScreamingEagles said:What an utter knob John McDonnell is.
He's proposing people earning over £1 million per annum publish their tax returns.
So he's only gone and published, inter alia, his tax return, replete with his full address, NI number, his unique tax reference number, and his employer reference.
If he doesn't become the victim of identity theft and/or fraud, it'll be a miracle.0 -
Welcome to PB, where people argue with that they wish you had said and berate you for what they think you believeThe_Apocalypse said:Really, if people are going to disagree with me, disagree with me on things I actually say. This is not the first time on this site that criticisms have been brought my way on statements I've never said.
Oh, and try and make you guilty by association for who your house's previous tenant's auntie's dog's former owner voted for 0 -
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AlsoIndigo said:
Welcome to PB, where people argue with that they wish you had said and berate you for what they think you believeThe_Apocalypse said:Really, if people are going to disagree with me, disagree with me on things I actually say. This is not the first time on this site that criticisms have been brought my way on statements I've never said.
I also noticed that in that thread I wasn't the only person making the argument which caused all the fuss. I did noticed though that I was only person who some took issue with for making the argument.0 -
I'd be happy to blame Mrs May for a lot. But Arlene Foster and Gerry Adams playing silly buggers isn't really a fair one to pin on her.scotslass said:The importance of the Northern Ireland election is the stalemate and return to direct rule that it is likely to emerge. In other words the May government will be facing BREXIT, a Scottish referendum and direct rule in NI at the same time.
One of the arts of politics is to avoid such a conjunction of events. Testimony to a limited inflexible and inexperienced Prime Minister.0 -
Of course. Which is why I would avoid most of the markets like the plague. In many seats, Paddy Power had 6 at long odds on. I would have loved the other side of lots of those.Pulpstar said:
Just one question - you did consider the seat reduction from 6 to generally 5 when assessing the odds :> ?Lucian_Fletcher said:
Careful with that. It's not quite the shoo-in you suggest. Sinn Fein are MASTERS of ballot balancing. There are 6 DEAs in F&ST. Each of their 3 candidates is advised as 1, 2, 3 in 2 od the DEAs. Jemma is advised 1 in Erne North and Enniskillen. Michelle Gildernew advised 1 in Dungannon and the Clogher Valley (and as the former MP IS the shoo-in for SF). Sean Lynch is advised number 1 in Erne West and Erne East.Pulpstar said:
I'm on a whole bunch of tips from Lucian Fletcher. Jemma Dolan @ 15-8 (Sinn Fein, advised #1 on the ballot in F&ST) looks to be the pick of the bunch (Into 4-9 now)Sean_F said:The Northern Ireland election seems completely pointless to me, destined to produce a very similar result to last year's.
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Gorton will probably be a fairly boring by election. Labour are pretty certain to win the seat.0
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Just yanking your chain.AlsoIndigo said:
They all look the same to you.TheScreamingEagles said:
They all look the same to you.AlsoIndigo said:
Luthfur Rahman ? Wasn't he banned from holding public office for five years ?TheScreamingEagles said:Re FPT
I have quite a few student friends living in Gorton, so I'll be reporting back on events there.
My prediction is an impressive Lab to Lib Dem swing in that seat as Sir Gerald Kaufman's personal vote unwinds, and the Lib Dems get a Brexit boost, but a Lab hold.
https://twitter.com/JenWilliamsMEN/status/837212975220015104
You're thinking of Lutfur Rahman
This is Luthfur Rahman.
Seems a little cheap considering my current lifestyle0 -
Nicky Morgan is Osborne's b1tch.AlsoIndigo said:
Well quite, and giving that housetrained airhead Nicky Morgan ideas beyond her abilities at the same time.Carolus_Rex said:
Or kicking Gove out of education and turning a friend into a dangerous enemy?CarlottaVance said:TheScreamingEagles said:This morning's Red Box email says Mrs May is likely to hold a reshuffle in September.
Clearly she's not learned from Dave's good practice.
Liz Truss is on her way out, so it ain't all bad.
It rather depends on how extensive the reshuffle is......would Dave's 'good practice' involve rehiring Letwin?
Anything she says should be seen in that context.
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And invent long lists of supporters of the other team demanding outrageous things like mass deportations....then go curiously quiet when asked to name any of them individuually....AlsoIndigo said:
Welcome to PB, where people argue with that they wish you had said and berate you for what they think you believeThe_Apocalypse said:Really, if people are going to disagree with me, disagree with me on things I actually say. This is not the first time on this site that criticisms have been brought my way on statements I've never said.
Oh, and try and make you guilty by association for who your house's previous tenant's auntie's dog's former owner voted for 0 -
It'll be anything but boring. It'll provide another data point for my Lab-Con by election model.The_Apocalypse said:Gorton will probably be a fairly boring by election. Labour are pretty certain to win the seat.
A Lab-> Con swing will be bad news for Corbyn.0 -
Could Jeff Sessions be in trouble?
https://mobile.twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/837121311998619648?ref_src=twsrc^tfw0 -
The MHS & Brexit climb the IPSOS issues index, while worries about the economy fade:
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3849/Concerns-about-the-NHS-and-the-EUBrexit-continue-to-rise.aspx0 -
Mass deportations? Huh?CarlottaVance said:
And invent long lists of supporters of the other team demanding outrageous things like mass deportations....then go curiously quiet when asked to name any of them individuually....AlsoIndigo said:
Welcome to PB, where people argue with that they wish you had said and berate you for what they think you believeThe_Apocalypse said:Really, if people are going to disagree with me, disagree with me on things I actually say. This is not the first time on this site that criticisms have been brought my way on statements I've never said.
Oh, and try and make you guilty by association for who your house's previous tenant's auntie's dog's former owner voted for
0 -
A Logan Act violation?The_Apocalypse said:Could Jeff Sessions be in trouble?
https://mobile.twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/837121311998619648?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
Lock him up!0 -
I think Sessions will have to go over this. AG confirmation is under oath is it not ?The_Apocalypse said:Could Jeff Sessions be in trouble?
https://mobile.twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/837121311998619648?ref_src=twsrc^tfw0 -
So leopards can change their spots! It's a wise decision. This isn't making the Tories or May look a all good. Even the threat of mass deportations puts you in a category that makes most civilised people gulp.isam said:"When we invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty which sets us off on a two-year negotiation to leave the EU, part of that renegotiations is what happens to retired people from Britain living on the Costa del Sol and what happens to people from Warsaw living in London
Let me make this clear, during our divorce negotiations, even if the EU was to behave badly and say [British] people living in Spain were to be threatened with not being there, we would maintain the line that we believe in the rule of law, we believe in British justice and we believe that anyone who has come to Britain legally has the right to remain."
The nice party. Please distinguish between ukip & the loony nasty leavers @AlastairMeeks
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-301116940 -
F1: Mercedes has not been seen so far today, due to investigating an electrical issue.0
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That was Farage speaking in 2014. He said the same last night, but I can't guarantee that the current ukip hierarchy will continue with his compassionate approachRoger said:
So leopards can change their spots! It's a wise decision. This isn't making the Tories or May look a all good. Even the threat of mass deportations puts you in a category that makes most civilised people gulp.isam said:"When we invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty which sets us off on a two-year negotiation to leave the EU, part of that renegotiations is what happens to retired people from Britain living on the Costa del Sol and what happens to people from Warsaw living in London
Let me make this clear, during our divorce negotiations, even if the EU was to behave badly and say [British] people living in Spain were to be threatened with not being there, we would maintain the line that we believe in the rule of law, we believe in British justice and we believe that anyone who has come to Britain legally has the right to remain."
The nice party. Please distinguish between ukip & the loony nasty leavers @AlastairMeeks
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-301116940 -
Maybe. As I understand it he was asked about communications between Russia and the Trump campaign. He maintains he met with the Russian ambassador in his capacity as a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee and that he had had similar meetings with 25 other ambassadors, so I guess it comes down to whether he can produce evidence, such as a letter or instruction, that such was the nature of the meeting, or his opponents can prove that they were not.The_Apocalypse said:Could Jeff Sessions be in trouble?
https://mobile.twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/837121311998619648?ref_src=twsrc^tfw0 -
It's only gone 10am & already we have 3 bits of news
•81% of NHS Hospitals Unsafe
•Affordable Housing Halved
•20% fall in Living Standards
Corbyns fault presumably0 -
which will be great, but it will still be boring. Likely to occur on same day as local elections; which won't be boring.Pulpstar said:
It'll be anything but boring. It'll provide another data point for my Lab-Con by election model.The_Apocalypse said:Gorton will probably be a fairly boring by election. Labour are pretty certain to win the seat.
A Lab-> Con swing will be bad news for Corbyn.0 -
Frustrated lefties trying to stir up trouble for the government.bigjohnowls said:It's only gone 10am & already we have 3 bits of news
•81% of NHS Hospitals Unsafe
•Affordable Housing Halved
•20% fall in Living Standards
Corbyns fault presumably
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Yes, for failing to hold the government to account on those as is his job.bigjohnowls said:It's only gone 10am & already we have 3 bits of news
•81% of NHS Hospitals Unsafe
•Affordable Housing Halved
•20% fall in Living Standards
Corbyns fault presumably0 -
I'm afraid that comes with the territory. Fostering children, even the non-immigrant progeny ones, is well remunerated but not without its problems.isam said:0 -
Truss and Morgan only got their jobs because they are female. Stupid PC world. Greening is great. Jane Ellison is superb and should be in the cabinet.TheScreamingEagles said:This morning's Red Box email says Mrs May is likely to hold a reshuffle in September.
Clearly she's not learned from Dave's good practice.
Liz Truss is on her way out, so it ain't all bad.0 -
I also think the MP who replaced Vince Cable should get a chance. She's very bright.Dixie said:
Truss and Morgan only got their jobs because they are female. Stupid PC world. Greening is great. Jane Ellison is superb and should be in the cabinet.TheScreamingEagles said:This morning's Red Box email says Mrs May is likely to hold a reshuffle in September.
Clearly she's not learned from Dave's good practice.
Liz Truss is on her way out, so it ain't all bad.0 -
It would be pretty unusual in the normal scheme of things to foster a child, and find out they were actually an adult!Stark_Dawning said:
I'm afraid that comes with the territory. Fostering children, even the non-immigrant progeny ones, is well remunerated but not without its problems.isam said:
Quite why we think we can take people from fairly basic living conditions, in a fairly brutal culture, in a country that has been at war pretty much for the whole of living memory, with very little in the way of national institutions, and expect them to fit in to polite western society I don't know.0 -
PB Tory Responsibility indexAlsoIndigo said:
Yes, for failing to hold the government to account on those as is his job.bigjohnowls said:It's only gone 10am & already we have 3 bits of news
•81% of NHS Hospitals Unsafe
•Affordable Housing Halved
•20% fall in Living Standards
Corbyns fault presumably
Government circa 0%
Last Labour Government/ Corbyn circa 100% depending on circumstances.
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2012 NEVDixie said:
which will be great, but it will still be boring. Likely to occur on same day as local elections; which won't be boring.Pulpstar said:
It'll be anything but boring. It'll provide another data point for my Lab-Con by election model.The_Apocalypse said:Gorton will probably be a fairly boring by election. Labour are pretty certain to win the seat.
A Lab-> Con swing will be bad news for Corbyn.
Con 31
Lab 38
Lib Dem 16
A 6 pt lead is Corbyn's target.0 -
Far too sensible:
Work and Pensions Secretary Damian Green floated a scenario whereby ministers are regularly assessed and set development goals, on which their future progress will depend.
“The real revolution for politicians would be to say: ‘We’re going to treat you like a manager in a company, and we’re to have development programmes and you’re going to have training and you’re going to be assessed regularly and in an objective way and your future progress will depend on that',” the senior minister told the Institute for Government.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/government-and-public-sector/efficiency/news/83808/treat-ministers-middle-managers-says0 -
A Lab - Con swing is almost inevitable. Labour had a 57.4% lead over the Tories in 2015, having gained a huge 22.7% swing from the Lib Dems against 2010. Kaufman's two-thirds share of the vote in 2015 was Labour's highest in the constituency since 1945. (The figures for 2005 and 2010 were 53.2 and 50.1 respectively).Pulpstar said:
It'll be anything but boring. It'll provide another data point for my Lab-Con by election model.The_Apocalypse said:Gorton will probably be a fairly boring by election. Labour are pretty certain to win the seat.
A Lab-> Con swing will be bad news for Corbyn.
Even without current levels of support for Con, we could reasonably expect some unwind of that LD-Lab swing and as such, a technical Lab-Con swing, particuarly with Con starting at sub-10% and as such, with little space to fall.0 -
Michael Gove left a mess behind him at Justice as well as Education. Though one might applaud his enlightened liberal instincts and ambitions, he fell down on the day job of just keeping schools and prisons ticking over with enough places and staff. Gove would not be the first or last minister unsuited to the daily grind of management, leadership and, well, politics, and might have been better promoted to the Keith Joseph memorial peerage for thinking important thoughts.Carolus_Rex said:
Or kicking Gove out of education and turning a friend into a dangerous enemy?CarlottaVance said:TheScreamingEagles said:This morning's Red Box email says Mrs May is likely to hold a reshuffle in September.
Clearly she's not learned from Dave's good practice.
Liz Truss is on her way out, so it ain't all bad.
It rather depends on how extensive the reshuffle is......would Dave's 'good practice' involve rehiring Letwin?0 -
Interesting that he had a bone density exam in Belgium which was good enough for them to rule he was more like 20 than 12 (Of course these things are never exact..).AlsoIndigo said:
It would be pretty unusual in the normal scheme of things to foster a child, and find out they were actually an adult!Stark_Dawning said:
I'm afraid that comes with the territory. Fostering children, even the non-immigrant progeny ones, is well remunerated but not without its problems.isam said:
Quite why we think we can take people from fairly basic living conditions, in a fairly brutal culture, in a country that has been at war pretty much for the whole of living memory, with very little in the way of national institutions, and expect them to fit in to polite western society I don't know.
Why wasn't this information passed on to ourselves ? I thought that was what the EU was supposed to be all about.
Its these small things, a dental check up here; slightly more stringent controls relating to work in Belgium than here; a contibutory benefits system there - that all added up methinks...0 -
Interesting, although the elections in England were last contested in 2013.Pulpstar said:
2012 NEVDixie said:
which will be great, but it will still be boring. Likely to occur on same day as local elections; which won't be boring.Pulpstar said:
It'll be anything but boring. It'll provide another data point for my Lab-Con by election model.The_Apocalypse said:Gorton will probably be a fairly boring by election. Labour are pretty certain to win the seat.
A Lab-> Con swing will be bad news for Corbyn.
Con 31
Lab 38
Lib Dem 16
A 6 pt lead is Corbyn's target.0 -
Jeff Sessions was asked under oath in a Senate committee about communications between the Trump campaign and Russia, when he said he had had no communications. It turns out he did have a private meeting with the Russian ambassador while he was part of that campaign. His defence is that he didn't discuss the Trump campaign. If you believe that or don't have any proof to the contrary, it comes down to what you understand by the word "communications" in that context. I think he's skating on very thin ice but will survive.AlsoIndigo said:
Maybe. As I understand it he was asked about communications between Russia and the Trump campaign. He maintains he met with the Russian ambassador in his capacity as a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee and that he had had similar meetings with 25 other ambassadors, so I guess it comes down to whether he can produce evidence, such as a letter or instruction, that such was the nature of the meeting, or his opponents can prove that they were not.The_Apocalypse said:Could Jeff Sessions be in trouble?
https://mobile.twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/837121311998619648?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-391361180 -
It's a terrible story if true.Stark_Dawning said:
I'm afraid that comes with the territory. Fostering children, even the non-immigrant progeny ones, is well remunerated but not without its problems.isam said:
How many other foster kids has that guy ruined things for?0 -
Morning all.
The Gorton by-election is the second one in which a Cyclefree family member will get a vote. Copeland was the other one.
Who knew life could be so exciting!?0 -
UKIP will cease to exist before long, the final nail will be when the MEPs are no more, funding will dry up considerably. That's a terrible shame, they helped shape politics in this country.0
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Well thank God for that, another day of Wrong Winner at Oscars would have finished me off.bigjohnowls said:It's only gone 10am & already we have 3 bits of news
•81% of NHS Hospitals Unsafe
•Affordable Housing Halved
•20% fall in Living Standards
Corbyns fault presumably
Corbyn's fault mainly, but Brexit must take its share of the blame.0 -
A monumentally stupid idea suggesting Green knows sod all about politics, leadership or management.CarlottaVance said:Far too sensible:
Work and Pensions Secretary Damian Green floated a scenario whereby ministers are regularly assessed and set development goals, on which their future progress will depend.
“The real revolution for politicians would be to say: ‘We’re going to treat you like a manager in a company, and we’re to have development programmes and you’re going to have training and you’re going to be assessed regularly and in an objective way and your future progress will depend on that',” the senior minister told the Institute for Government.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/government-and-public-sector/efficiency/news/83808/treat-ministers-middle-managers-says0 -
I agree. There is a certain amount of spin from both sides. This article from NBC says more or less the same but seems to feel the ice is somewhat thicker than the BBC does.FF43 said:
Jeff Sessions was asked under oath in a Senate committee about communications between the Trump campaign and Russia, when he said he had had no communications. It turns out he did have a private meeting with the Russian ambassador while he was part of that campaign. His defence is that he didn't discuss the Trump campaign. If you believe that or don't have any proof to the contrary, it comes down to what you understand by the word "communications" in that context. I think he's skating on very thin ice but will survive.AlsoIndigo said:
Maybe. As I understand it he was asked about communications between Russia and the Trump campaign. He maintains he met with the Russian ambassador in his capacity as a member of the Senate Armed Services Committee and that he had had similar meetings with 25 other ambassadors, so I guess it comes down to whether he can produce evidence, such as a letter or instruction, that such was the nature of the meeting, or his opponents can prove that they were not.The_Apocalypse said:Could Jeff Sessions be in trouble?
https://mobile.twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/837121311998619648?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-39136118
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/sessions-met-russian-ambassador-didn-t-mislead-senate-spokeswoman-n7279660 -
You cannot run a government like a business for the same reason that you cannot run a business like a government. Democracy does not work that way. (Arguably, far too many businesses *are* run with excessive considerations of internal politics but that's a different matter!)CarlottaVance said:Far too sensible:
Work and Pensions Secretary Damian Green floated a scenario whereby ministers are regularly assessed and set development goals, on which their future progress will depend.
“The real revolution for politicians would be to say: ‘We’re going to treat you like a manager in a company, and we’re to have development programmes and you’re going to have training and you’re going to be assessed regularly and in an objective way and your future progress will depend on that',” the senior minister told the Institute for Government.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/government-and-public-sector/efficiency/news/83808/treat-ministers-middle-managers-says0 -
If you foster in the UK, the child will usually come from being in care and will have a detailed record and the social worker will take you through the highlights, so you will know pretty much what you are getting, someone fresh from Calais and before that a war zone, not so much.rkrkrk said:
It's a terrible story if true.Stark_Dawning said:
I'm afraid that comes with the territory. Fostering children, even the non-immigrant progeny ones, is well remunerated but not without its problems.isam said:
How many other foster kids has that guy ruined things for?0 -
The Cyclefree family: changing the electoral landscape, one seat at a time.Cyclefree said:Morning all.
The Gorton by-election is the second one in which a Cyclefree family member will get a vote. Copeland was the other one.
Who knew life could be so exciting!?0 -
Could cite you these - would be helpful, because they look like bollocks.bigjohnowls said:It's only gone 10am & already we have 3 bits of news
•81% of NHS Hospitals Unsafe
•Affordable Housing Halved
•20% fall in Living Standards
Corbyns fault presumably
eg 20% fall in living standards seems impossible given a nicely growing economy and population growth 0.6% - living standards are rising quite fast!
Who is deciding if a hosptial is unsafe?
Affordable housing that was there is still there - it's just occupied. So do you mean new build? Do you mean currently available for rent? What's driving supply and demand? Supply is increasing but demand is growing faster - so there is a pressure. How does immigration play into this?
Are Owen Jones and McMao your data sources?
0 -
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@isam I'll brush up my MS Paint skills for a suitable Venn diagram of Leaveworld.0
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It's nonsensical for supporters of a party to blame failures on the opposition for not holding their own party to account. Heck, they could hold their own party to account for failures that happened on its watch.bigjohnowls said:
PB Tory Responsibility indexAlsoIndigo said:
Yes, for failing to hold the government to account on those as is his job.bigjohnowls said:It's only gone 10am & already we have 3 bits of news
•81% of NHS Hospitals Unsafe
•Affordable Housing Halved
•20% fall in Living Standards
Corbyns fault presumably
Government circa 0%
Last Labour Government/ Corbyn circa 100% depending on circumstances.0 -
CQC, HM GOV, IFSPatrick said:
Could cite you these - would be helpful, because they look like bollocks.bigjohnowls said:It's only gone 10am & already we have 3 bits of news
•81% of NHS Hospitals Unsafe
•Affordable Housing Halved
•20% fall in Living Standards
Corbyns fault presumably
eg 20% fall in living standards seems impossible given a nicely growing economy and population growth 0.6% - living standards are rising quite fast!
Who is deciding if a hosptial is unsafe?
Affordable housing that was there is still there - it's just occupied. So do you mean new build? Do you mean currently available for rent? What's driving supply and demand? Supply is increasing but demand is growing faster - so there is a pressure. How does immigration play into this?
Are Owen Jones and McMao your data sources?0 -
Link ? I am not of course suggestion that there is some small print or selective reading going on, but you can't be too careful these days.bigjohnowls said:
CQC, HM GOV, IFSPatrick said:
Could cite you these - would be helpful, because they look like bollocks.bigjohnowls said:It's only gone 10am & already we have 3 bits of news
•81% of NHS Hospitals Unsafe
•Affordable Housing Halved
•20% fall in Living Standards
Corbyns fault presumably
eg 20% fall in living standards seems impossible given a nicely growing economy and population growth 0.6% - living standards are rising quite fast!
Who is deciding if a hosptial is unsafe?
Affordable housing that was there is still there - it's just occupied. So do you mean new build? Do you mean currently available for rent? What's driving supply and demand? Supply is increasing but demand is growing faster - so there is a pressure. How does immigration play into this?
Are Owen Jones and McMao your data sources? 0 -
These unsafe hospitals - does it mean they're falling down, full of criminals or poorly trained staff?bigjohnowls said:It's only gone 10am & already we have 3 bits of news
•81% of NHS Hospitals Unsafe
•Affordable Housing Halved
•20% fall in Living Standards
Corbyns fault presumably
Sounds like nonsense to me0 -
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As others have said, the Tory vote is already at rock bottom and Labour can only go down from 68% or whatever it is. Most likely is Labour around 50-55% and Tories 12-15%. But you never know whether the Greens or LDs might get some traction in a by-election like this.Pulpstar said:
It'll be anything but boring. It'll provide another data point for my Lab-Con by election model.The_Apocalypse said:Gorton will probably be a fairly boring by election. Labour are pretty certain to win the seat.
A Lab-> Con swing will be bad news for Corbyn.0 -
I have a feeling that particular cork won't damage the ceiling with the explosiveness of the pop.Richard_Nabavi said:0 -
Oh! well there is a shock.AlsoIndigo said:
Link ? I am not of course suggestion that there is some small print or selective reading going on, but you can't be too careful these days.bigjohnowls said:
CQC, HM GOV, IFSPatrick said:
Could cite you these - would be helpful, because they look like bollocks.bigjohnowls said:It's only gone 10am & already we have 3 bits of news
•81% of NHS Hospitals Unsafe
•Affordable Housing Halved
•20% fall in Living Standards
Corbyns fault presumably
eg 20% fall in living standards seems impossible given a nicely growing economy and population growth 0.6% - living standards are rising quite fast!
Who is deciding if a hosptial is unsafe?
Affordable housing that was there is still there - it's just occupied. So do you mean new build? Do you mean currently available for rent? What's driving supply and demand? Supply is increasing but demand is growing faster - so there is a pressure. How does immigration play into this?
Are Owen Jones and McMao your data sources?
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/mar/02/ifs-growth-uk-living-standards-worst-in-60-years-pensions-poverty-budget
The IFS calculated that average household incomes will be 18% lower in 2021-22 than could have been reasonably expected in 2007-08, before the global financial crisis took hold of the economy. It means a childless couple would be about £5,900 a year worse off than they might otherwise have been, rising to £8,300 for a couple with two young children.
So what you meant to say was that in 4-5 years time we could be 20% worse off than we might have been if the Great Financial Crisis hadn't happened. Hold the press!0 -
and CQC get paid a fortune to inform you toofreetochoose said:
These unsafe hospitals - does it mean they're falling down, full of criminals or poorly trained staff?bigjohnowls said:It's only gone 10am & already we have 3 bits of news
•81% of NHS Hospitals Unsafe
•Affordable Housing Halved
•20% fall in Living Standards
Corbyns fault presumably
Sounds like nonsense to me0 -
The latest lib dem adult movie starring Sarah Olney and Tom Brake.. Fifty shades of yellow
https://pbs.twimg.com/ext_tw_video_thumb/837076333700120576/pu/img/to-I4sYHWnuS-tx5.jpg0 -
Theresa May Gains Nothern Ireland! Lol.0
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DecrepitJohnL said:
A monumentally stupid idea suggesting Green knows sod all about politics, leadership or management.CarlottaVance said:Far too sensible:
Work and Pensions Secretary Damian Green floated a scenario whereby ministers are regularly assessed and set development goals, on which their future progress will depend.
“The real revolution for politicians would be to say: ‘We’re going to treat you like a manager in a company, and we’re to have development programmes and you’re going to have training and you’re going to be assessed regularly and in an objective way and your future progress will depend on that',” the senior minister told the Institute for Government.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/government-and-public-sector/efficiency/news/83808/treat-ministers-middle-managers-says
So, you can't set Ministers objectives, identify their skills, their strengths to build on or weaknesses to address and measure their progress and review.david_herdson said:
You cannot run a government like a business for the same reason that you cannot run a business like a government. Democracy does not work that way. (Arguably, far too many businesses *are* run with excessive considerations of internal politics but that's a different matter!)CarlottaVance said:Far too sensible:
Work and Pensions Secretary Damian Green floated a scenario whereby ministers are regularly assessed and set development goals, on which their future progress will depend.
“The real revolution for politicians would be to say: ‘We’re going to treat you like a manager in a company, and we’re to have development programmes and you’re going to have training and you’re going to be assessed regularly and in an objective way and your future progress will depend on that',” the senior minister told the Institute for Government.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/government-and-public-sector/efficiency/news/83808/treat-ministers-middle-managers-says
Why not?0 -
An important counterpoint to the argument that Labour should be for Remain since its supporters are. In truth they have few good options.
https://twitter.com/election_data/status/8372570047542845450
![[Deleted User]](https://wd.vanillicon.com/d2ea526b1b06ed109333f390c7ae956b_100.png)
