politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The PB/Polling Matters podcast: After the by-elections what next for LAB/Corbyn/UKIP plus a look at Northern Ireland
On this week’s podcast, Keiran is joined by Adam Drummond of Opinium and Matt Singh of Number Cruncher Politics.
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"Semi-historic"?!
I do like Mr. Pedley, but that's a step away from "quite unique".
He's proposing people earning over £1 million per annum publish their tax returns.
So he's only gone and published, inter alia, his tax return, replete with his full address, NI number, his unique tax reference number, and his employer reference.
If he doesn't become the victim of identity theft and/or fraud, it'll be a miracle.
Ahem.
I hear Rick Astley really struggles with Lent.
https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/837234109869133824
I have quite a few student friends living in Gorton, so I'll be reporting back on events there.
My prediction is an impressive Lab to Lib Dem swing in that seat as Sir Gerald Kaufman's personal vote unwinds, and the Lib Dems get a Brexit boost, but a Lab hold.
https://twitter.com/JenWilliamsMEN/status/837212975220015104
One of the arts of politics is to avoid such a conjunction of events. Testimony to a limited inflexible and inexperienced Prime Minister.
Clearly she's not learned from Dave's good practice.
Liz Truss is on her way out, so it ain't all bad.
It rather depends on how extensive the reshuffle is......would Dave's 'good practice' involve rehiring Letwin?
Severely under appreciated by the government and also underpaid too by the sounds of things.
Let me make this clear, during our divorce negotiations, even if the EU was to behave badly and say [British] people living in Spain were to be threatened with not being there, we would maintain the line that we believe in the rule of law, we believe in British justice and we believe that anyone who has come to Britain legally has the right to remain."
The nice party. Please distinguish between ukip & the loony nasty leavers @AlastairMeeks
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30111694
You're thinking of Lutfur Rahman
This is Luthfur Rahman.
Maybe this should be their plan B!!
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/03/02/a-goat-would-beat-le-pen-in-frances-presidential-election-political-analyst-says.html
Seems a little cheap considering my current lifestyle
The army has its own issues of course - the number of chiefs should probably be vastly cut... but I don't think it makes the current prison officer situation better.
I'm not sure how the pensions compare, but my colleague will receive an excellent pension compared to his time and wages served during from his navy stint. Is it so good for prison officers ?
@kle4
I didn't say that all those who disagreed with me were right-wing. You've just mentioned this place is right-leaning: well that is what it was a comment on.
Secondly, I didn't say you were right-wing specifically either.
Thirdly, I didn't typify the alternative view as a right-wing together either. It was in response to someone who wasn't engaging with my argument at all by providing an alternative view, but dismissed my argument entirely. The dismissive attitude, and the idea that my alternative view should not be put forward was what caused the 'right-wing get together comment.' I thought that was fairly obvious, given that in my exchanges with you I never actually characterised your disagreement with me as 'right-wing'. Nor did I ever explicitly define terms of this debate in ideological terms. Your reply to me is filled with accusations of things I never actually said.
Nor did I said that my argument wasn't my opinion. The difference is, is that I did not dismiss all other arguments, but I tried to make my case. (And again I'm not accusing YOU of dismissing my opinion).
As for your last question: because politicians do stupid things. It was a dumb thing for May to do, but it was hardly the crime of the century. If I disliked a politician over this one thing, then I'd probably hate most of them, given they have all made silly comments over the years. Indeed I didn't actually intend to get into a heated argument over this. A similar observation in regard to May's comment was made previously, and funnily enough there wasn't all that much debate about it. Yet there is now....
Really, if people are going to disagree with me, disagree with me on things I actually say. This is not the first time on this site that criticisms have been brought my way on statements I've never said.
I also noticed that in that thread I wasn't the only person making the argument which caused all the fuss. I did noticed though that I was only person who some took issue with for making the argument.
Anything she says should be seen in that context.
A Lab-> Con swing will be bad news for Corbyn.
https://mobile.twitter.com/washingtonpost/status/837121311998619648?ref_src=twsrc^tfw
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3849/Concerns-about-the-NHS-and-the-EUBrexit-continue-to-rise.aspx
Lock him up!
•81% of NHS Hospitals Unsafe
•Affordable Housing Halved
•20% fall in Living Standards
Corbyns fault presumably
Quite why we think we can take people from fairly basic living conditions, in a fairly brutal culture, in a country that has been at war pretty much for the whole of living memory, with very little in the way of national institutions, and expect them to fit in to polite western society I don't know.
Government circa 0%
Last Labour Government/ Corbyn circa 100% depending on circumstances.
Con 31
Lab 38
Lib Dem 16
A 6 pt lead is Corbyn's target.
Work and Pensions Secretary Damian Green floated a scenario whereby ministers are regularly assessed and set development goals, on which their future progress will depend.
“The real revolution for politicians would be to say: ‘We’re going to treat you like a manager in a company, and we’re to have development programmes and you’re going to have training and you’re going to be assessed regularly and in an objective way and your future progress will depend on that',” the senior minister told the Institute for Government.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/government-and-public-sector/efficiency/news/83808/treat-ministers-middle-managers-says
Even without current levels of support for Con, we could reasonably expect some unwind of that LD-Lab swing and as such, a technical Lab-Con swing, particuarly with Con starting at sub-10% and as such, with little space to fall.
Why wasn't this information passed on to ourselves ? I thought that was what the EU was supposed to be all about.
Its these small things, a dental check up here; slightly more stringent controls relating to work in Belgium than here; a contibutory benefits system there - that all added up methinks...
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-39136118
How many other foster kids has that guy ruined things for?
The Gorton by-election is the second one in which a Cyclefree family member will get a vote. Copeland was the other one.
Who knew life could be so exciting!?
Corbyn's fault mainly, but Brexit must take its share of the blame.
http://www.nbcnews.com/politics/white-house/sessions-met-russian-ambassador-didn-t-mislead-senate-spokeswoman-n727966
eg 20% fall in living standards seems impossible given a nicely growing economy and population growth 0.6% - living standards are rising quite fast!
Who is deciding if a hosptial is unsafe?
Affordable housing that was there is still there - it's just occupied. So do you mean new build? Do you mean currently available for rent? What's driving supply and demand? Supply is increasing but demand is growing faster - so there is a pressure. How does immigration play into this?
Are Owen Jones and McMao your data sources?
Sounds like nonsense to me
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2017/mar/02/ifs-growth-uk-living-standards-worst-in-60-years-pensions-poverty-budget
The IFS calculated that average household incomes will be 18% lower in 2021-22 than could have been reasonably expected in 2007-08, before the global financial crisis took hold of the economy. It means a childless couple would be about £5,900 a year worse off than they might otherwise have been, rising to £8,300 for a couple with two young children.
So what you meant to say was that in 4-5 years time we could be 20% worse off than we might have been if the Great Financial Crisis hadn't happened. Hold the press!
https://pbs.twimg.com/ext_tw_video_thumb/837076333700120576/pu/img/to-I4sYHWnuS-tx5.jpg
Why not?
https://twitter.com/election_data/status/837257004754284545