politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Mapping across – how the Brexit vote might translate onto the
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Well if the bet's a loser I will flag it up as a tip by you, and if it is a winner, I'm taking all the glory.Tissue_Price said:
It's not your fault if you've been trained that way.TheScreamingEagles said:
You mean like my 10/1 tip thread on Labour polling sub 20% at the general election?Tissue_Price said:
LOL! I thought it was pretty cheeky of your dad to keep bigging up his (good) 7/1 call when you were advising him at 20s!rcs1000 said:
Actually, I think PB is pretty much flat on Macron. It's just that all the bets against were from HYUFD.Morris_Dancer said:Just hedged Baroin at 11 (backed at 32). Only tiny stakes, of course, but now, when things settle down, Baroin and Juppe both have hedgeable margins. Ahead by a smaller sum if Le Pen or Fillon win. Also fairly green (by my standards, I know most here bet far more than me) on Macron.
(Genuinely, I never saw your tip, if I had, would have hat-tipped you)0 -
Baroin is the unknown quantity. Juppe is a known loser !
ALLEZ BAROIN.0 -
Marie Le Conte @youngvulgarian 3m3 minutes ago
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I honestly don't see what Fillon can do in his press conference apart from pulling out. He's already had one surprise press conference where
Marie Le Conte @youngvulgarian 2m2 minutes ago
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we all thought he'd announce he was quitting, but he went for the whole "fuck all y'all, I'm fighting on" routine. You can't do that twice.0 -
Marie Le Conte @youngvulgarian 1m1 minute ago
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Figaro announcing that Fillon's campaign manager Patrick Stefanini has resigned. Press conference in 15 minutes.0 -
I knowTheScreamingEagles said:
Well if the bet's a loser I will flag it up as a tip by you, and if it is a winner, I'm taking all the glory.Tissue_Price said:
It's not your fault if you've been trained that way.TheScreamingEagles said:
You mean like my 10/1 tip thread on Labour polling sub 20% at the general election?Tissue_Price said:
LOL! I thought it was pretty cheeky of your dad to keep bigging up his (good) 7/1 call when you were advising him at 20s!rcs1000 said:
Actually, I think PB is pretty much flat on Macron. It's just that all the bets against were from HYUFD.Morris_Dancer said:Just hedged Baroin at 11 (backed at 32). Only tiny stakes, of course, but now, when things settle down, Baroin and Juppe both have hedgeable margins. Ahead by a smaller sum if Le Pen or Fillon win. Also fairly green (by my standards, I know most here bet far more than me) on Macron.
(Genuinely, I never saw your tip, if I had, would have hat-tipped you)
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Please let it be Baroin, I am +440 on him.0
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Or it's (a younger) Dominic Cummings (!)williamglenn said:0 -
Verulamius said:
How about taxing (say over £30k) the lump sums from pensions?rottenborough said:
Perhaps Mrs Gove can ask her husband to come up with another way of raising the billions needed for social care with an ageing population.TheScreamingEagles said:
Not just the Daily Mail but the wife of Michael Gove.rottenborough said:So it begins. The DM battle against any kind of death duty to pay for social care:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4269840/SARAH-VINE-wanted-death-taxes-d-vote-communist.html#ixzz4a3ZHmhjM
Given how influential she was in the Tory leadership contest and the slenderness of the Tory majority, be very afraid Mrs May.
I'd be interested in the polling for Scotland.DavidL said:
All completely MOE of course but the consolidation of the UKIP vote into the Tories appears to continue. This is a very positive trend for May and threatens to put her onto the largest share of the vote for any party for a considerable time. I do think people are underestimating the implications of this in the same way that many underestimated the SNP prior to 2015.dr_spyn said:Corbyn & McDonnell reaching out to SWP, that will work for them.
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/836869298748534784
Tory 17 point lead.
Farron also going nowhere.0 -
Mr. Pulpstar, it'd be convenient for me if it's Baroin (could be all-green specifically on Betfair, and not have to shuffle money around) although I'm greener on Juppe overall.
Not into the hundreds, mind.0 -
Market seems to think Juppe is the likeliest replacement. That would put Bayrou in a difficult position as he had previously promised to give his backing to Juppe if he ran.rcs1000 said:
It's an interesting question, isn't it? Juppe would be very good for Le Pen, and poor for Macron.BudG said:
I think if Fillon IS replaced, Macron will have a tougher time against Juppe or Baroin.rcs1000 said:
Actually, I think PB is pretty much flat on Macron. It's just that all the bets against were from HYUFD.Morris_Dancer said:Just hedged Baroin at 11 (backed at 32). Only tiny stakes, of course, but now, when things settle down, Baroin and Juppe both have hedgeable margins. Ahead by a smaller sum if Le Pen or Fillon win. Also fairly green (by my standards, I know most here bet far more than me) on Macron.
Baroin would be more mixed. I think he probably also loses out to Le Pen, but without necessarily grabbing many votes from Macron.
I think there's another dynamic at work, too. I think if it looks close between Baroin and Macron for who faces off against Le Pen, then more centrist Hamon voters vote for Macron so they have at least one (slightly) left wing candidate in the final two.
If it IS Juppe, then I would expect him to replace Macron as favourite.
Despite the betting, Baroin still seems to be the likeliest replacement to me.
But Fillon is a stubborn git, most would have withdrawn well before now, so would not be at all surprised if he decides to use this as an opportunity to reinforce his mantra that he is the victim of a conspiracy and ride it out.0 -
Apparently there is no rules/provisions in rule book if Fillon pulled out
https://twitter.com/Figarat/status/8368903550773780490 -
Wouldn't that effect apply to ANY right of centre candidate that was up against Macron?rcs1000 said:
It's an interesting question, isn't it? Juppe would be very good for Le Pen, and poor for Macron.BudG said:
I think if Fillon IS replaced, Macron will have a tougher time against Juppe or Baroin.rcs1000 said:
Actually, I think PB is pretty much flat on Macron. It's just that all the bets against were from HYUFD.Morris_Dancer said:Just hedged Baroin at 11 (backed at 32). Only tiny stakes, of course, but now, when things settle down, Baroin and Juppe both have hedgeable margins. Ahead by a smaller sum if Le Pen or Fillon win. Also fairly green (by my standards, I know most here bet far more than me) on Macron.
Baroin would be more mixed. I think he probably also loses out to Le Pen, but without necessarily grabbing many votes from Macron.
I think there's another dynamic at work, too. I think if it looks close between Baroin and Macron for who faces off against Le Pen, then more centrist Hamon voters vote for Macron so they have at least one (slightly) left wing candidate in the final two.0 -
Marie Le Conte @youngvulgarian 3m3 minutes ago
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Marie Le Conte Retweeted Jean-Baptiste Garat
Rumour is now that Fillon is pulling out but party doesn't know who'll replace him. Hell of a nail-biter for Macron.0 -
Too late to run another primary?0
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I'm in agreement with this assesment.BudG said:
Market seems to think Juppe is the likeliest replacement. That would put Bayrou in a difficult position as he had previously promised to give his backing to Juppe if he ran.rcs1000 said:
It's an interesting question, isn't it? Juppe would be very good for Le Pen, and poor for Macron.BudG said:
I think if Fillon IS replaced, Macron will have a tougher time against Juppe or Baroin.rcs1000 said:
Actually, I think PB is pretty much flat on Macron. It's just that all the bets against were from HYUFD.Morris_Dancer said:Just hedged Baroin at 11 (backed at 32). Only tiny stakes, of course, but now, when things settle down, Baroin and Juppe both have hedgeable margins. Ahead by a smaller sum if Le Pen or Fillon win. Also fairly green (by my standards, I know most here bet far more than me) on Macron.
Baroin would be more mixed. I think he probably also loses out to Le Pen, but without necessarily grabbing many votes from Macron.
I think there's another dynamic at work, too. I think if it looks close between Baroin and Macron for who faces off against Le Pen, then more centrist Hamon voters vote for Macron so they have at least one (slightly) left wing candidate in the final two.
If it IS Juppe, then I would expect him to replace Macron as favourite.
Despite the betting, Baroin still seems to be the likeliest replacement to me.
But Fillon is a stubborn git, most would have withdrawn well before now, so would not be at all surprised if he decides to use this as an opportunity to reinforce his mantra that he is the victim of a conspiracy and ride it out.
Consider this analysis (Probably to be blown apart by events in 20 minutes)
If he is staying put then he will announce that he thinks the attacks on Penelope are 'politically motivated' and go a bit Trump with the media.
If he is pulling out then he gives it to Baroin - who seems to be at the HQ...0 -
He appears to be a protege of Chirac, the man that was elected because he wasn't Jean-Marie Le Pen, so there is a certain symmetry about it.williamglenn said:ttps://twitter.com/nickjbarlow/status/836888841046876162
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“British English discontinued the use of “have gotten” as a form of the past participle for “get” over 300 years ago. The British Colonies on the other hand continued to use it. As a result American English continued the use of “have gotten” while British English relegated the word to obsolescence. It is now rarely used in the British version of the English language. American English continues to use “have gotten” to emphasis the action performed. In American English language “has got” implies possession. It is assumed that if “has got” is used that it is referencing what the person has in their possession. On the other hand, “has gotten” implies that the person acquired, received or obtained an item.”Morris_Dancer said:F1: McLaren have gotten 18 laps done so far. That's pretty much average, but given previous problems they'll probably be quite relieved.
Force India haven't done many. I think they may have reliability issues too.
www.reference.com0 -
Len is not as pro-Corbyn as he was previously though.TheScreamingEagles said:Len's going to win again.
https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/8368903799999365120 -
Sorry, don't have time to deal with the end of the Labour party this morning as busy in France.TheScreamingEagles said:Len's going to win again.
https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/8368903799999365120 -
Is there a cut off date for candidates to declare?
Macron could propose a 'front republicain' to fight Le Pen whereby Fillon is not replaced in return for a deal to bring members of the party into his government.0 -
Macron, Fillon, Le Pen, Dupont-Aignan, Hamon, Mélenchon - all their surnames end with an 'n'. Quite a coincidence!
If Fillon withdraws in an hour's time, perhaps his replacement will be not Alain Juppé...but François Baroin
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So true
"If you’ve ever worked with oppressed groups, such as people who are homeless, abused, addicted or suffering from mental health problems, there's one thing you learn straight away. They usually don't frame their worldviews in terms of academic theories students learn in gender studies classes in university. For the most part, they tend to not analyse their experiences in terms of systemic power and privilege, concepts such as “the patriarchy”, “white privilege”, or “heteronormativity”.
While many of these folks know that they're directly impacted by class inequality, they don't sit around pondering capitalism, reading Marx, or tackling the effects of “problematic behaviours”. They are not concerned with checking their privilege. No. They are busy trying to survive. Getting through the next day. Meeting their basic needs. They don't bother with policing their language and worrying about how their words might unintentionally perpetuate certain stereotypes. They are more concerned with their voices being heard.
Yet I witness so many “activists” who ignore the realities of oppression despite saying that they care about those at the bottom of society. They think that being offended by something is equal to experiencing prison time or living on the streets. They talk about listening, being humble and not having preconceptions. Yet they ignore the lived experiences of those who don’t speak or think properly in the view of university-educated social justice warriors, regardless of how much worse off they really are...
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/why-this-radical-activist-is-disillusioned-by-the-toxic-culture-of-the-left-a6895211.html0 -
March 17thwilliamglenn said:Is there a cut off date for candidates to declare?
Macron could propose a 'front republicain' to fight Le Pen whereby Fillon is not replaced in return for a deal to bring members of the party into his government.0 -
On thread - Alastair back to his (fairly) measured, perceptive best. But we need to point out that while Leave/Remain was a horrible binary choice, most people don't sit neatly in one of two binary camps. The number of damn-them-all ultra-leavers and bend-over-and-take-it ultra-remainers is pretty small; most people fall either into 'on balance leave - but...' or 'on balance remain - but...' (or the often overlooked 'don't knows').
For EU elections in the past, my view was that the country fell fairly neatly into four camps: those who wanted more Europe voted Lib Dem - hence their terrible showing at EU elections - those who wanted about the same amount of Europe voted Labour; those who wanted less Europe voted Conservative and those who wanted no Europe at all voted UKIP. This has segued quite neatly into a post-referendum equivalent: UKIP are still unequivocally the voice of the hardcore leaver, and the Lib Dems as that of the hardcore remainer. The Conservatives will, after some circumlocution, out of necessity of being in government and having to implement the decision, end up as the voice of middle-of-the-road Leave - the party of slightly soft Brexit. Rubbery Brexit, perhaps. They will no doubt alienate a few Conservative supporters at either end of the Leave-Remain spectrum in doing so, but that's the nature of politics when taking any policy decision.
As the principal opposition party, Labour would ordinarily have a natural position as the 'if-we-must-but-ooh, I-wouldn't-do-it-that-way' Leave - the party of slightly softer Brexit. Flaccid Brexit, perhaps. Again, they'd alienate a few along the way but most of those who couldn't get on board with this policy position are already in the Lib Dems. Labour's position, however, is complicated by the equivocal position of their leader on Brexit, and by the general musteline* nature of the party at present. Historically (well, since the 80s at least), Labour have done a very good job of internally disagreeing about Europe without falling out about it - in a way that they haven't about, say, nuclear weapons - largely, I suspect, because the issue was never seen as not that philosophically important. It was an issue where those who disagreed could disagree without seeing the other point of view as morally repugnant. Unfortunately, this is no longer the case.
*of or pertaining to a ferret0 -
Will this thing start on time, or is it going to be all French and late running?0
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They will start, then have a three hour break for lunch....rottenborough said:Will this thing start on time, or is it going to be all French and late running?
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No, but he is still pro-"unelectable left-wing nutcase" for leader of the Labour Party.Pulpstar said:
Len is not as pro-Corbyn as he was previously though.TheScreamingEagles said:Len's going to win again.
https://twitter.com/georgeeaton/status/8368903799999365120 -
I don't accept the premise of the article - that how people voted in last June's Referendum will have a significant bearing on how they vote in a general election in 2020. Last week's by elections suggested that Brexit has already ceased to be a key salient issue. It is also often forgotten that a considerable proportion voted one way or the other in June 2016 with little enthusiasm - or indeed insight.0
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Juppe drifting out - does someone know?0
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Juppe now at 190
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The winners will vote on other issues, many of the losers feel strongly about it and it will influence their vote. Hence a big upset in Richmond and no big upset in Stoke.justin124 said:I don't accept the premise of the article - that how people voted in last June's Referendum will have a significant bearing on how they vote in a general election in 2020. Last week's by elections suggested that Brexit has already ceased to be a key salient issue. It is also often forgotten that a considerable proportion voted one way or the other in June 2016 with little enthusiasm - or indeed insight.
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Seems buzzfeed may be reporting another Fillon fake job, but I can't really read it.0
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Fillon seems to have been given a toy tractor as he heads to stage. Que?0
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See - and hear? - more of Carla BruniTheScreamingEagles said:I'm on team Sarkozy.
Because we need to see more of Carla Bruni.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MNyhV3nOO-o0 -
Can someone point me to somewhere reporting on what Fillon is actually saying in the presser rather than the commentator's own wishful thinking or fears ?0
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What sort of EU is it going to be?
http://www.politico.eu/article/breaking-politico-obtains-white-paper-on-eu-future/
Pity Cameron hadn't got the balls to define it.0 -
The rumour, cited to "sources", that Penelope Fillon has been taken into police custody has been denied.0
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it is live here: http://www.bfmtv.com/mediaplayer/live-video/
but so far nothing but waffle. He is not on stage yet0 -
Mr. Evershed, thou art a bloody jester! I'll not have ye saying I'm outdated, forsooth.0
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Oh, come on, *****y French. I have to go out at 12.0
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I must admit, musteline isn't part of my usual vocabulary (though it shall be henceforth). It was the result of a quick google, and sadly, yes, it didn't just apply to ferrets. But I could easily think of certain members of the PLP who might be described more as a wolverine or a weasel than a ferret. Not sure who the otters are though.Cyan said:
I love witty explanatory footnotesCookie said:by the general musteline* nature of the party at present (...)
*of or pertaining to a ferret But said nature also pertains to other mustelids, including wolverines, who are vicious, otters, and weasels.0 -
Has he changed his mind or is he just playing with that toy tractor?0
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Golly
DC Clothesline
It Begins: Wendy’s Installs Robots in 1,000 Stores to Counter Minimum Wage https://t.co/Doxs2CvUr4 https://t.co/zLyZYhv5Z30 -
I think there is something in this. It has also suddenly gained a lot of salience because the governments thin majority, and therefore the pondering in the few remaining Labour thinkers about how to use that to get back in the game. The issue of BrExit makes that whole idea a nightmare for them though, its the most visceral political issue of the day, and they have the many of the most Leave and most Remain seats in the country, move either way even slightly and they risk being worse off rather than better, and yet both sides expect them to advocate loudly for their prefered position.Cookie said:As the principal opposition party, Labour would ordinarily have a natural position as the 'if-we-must-but-ooh, I-wouldn't-do-it-that-way' Leave - the party of slightly softer Brexit. Flaccid Brexit, perhaps. Again, they'd alienate a few along the way but most of those who couldn't get on board with this policy position are already in the Lib Dems. Labour's position, however, is complicated by the equivocal position of their leader on Brexit, and by the general musteline* nature of the party at present. Historically (well, since the 80s at least), Labour have done a very good job of internally disagreeing about Europe without falling out about it - in a way that they haven't about, say, nuclear weapons - largely, I suspect, because the issue was never seen as not that philosophically important. It was an issue where those who disagreed could disagree without seeing the other point of view as morally repugnant. Unfortunately, this is no longer the case.
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BBC Archive
#OTD 1958: Prince Phillip was challenged to a Tiddlywinks game by Cambridge University. He dispatched his Royal Champions, The Goons https://t.co/CFjSXvq4Lq0 -
By-elections are a cheap protest. Richmond wont risk putting Corbyn or one of his camp followers in Downing Street.logical_song said:
The winners will vote on other issues, many of the losers feel strongly about it and it will influence their vote. Hence a big upset in Richmond and no big upset in Stoke.justin124 said:I don't accept the premise of the article - that how people voted in last June's Referendum will have a significant bearing on how they vote in a general election in 2020. Last week's by elections suggested that Brexit has already ceased to be a key salient issue. It is also often forgotten that a considerable proportion voted one way or the other in June 2016 with little enthusiasm - or indeed insight.
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Well we already have these order points in Stoke-on-Trent McDonald's, so "robots" is taking the piss a bit.PlatoSaid said:Golly
DC Clothesline
It Begins: Wendy’s Installs Robots in 1,000 Stores to Counter Minimum Wage https://t.co/Doxs2CvUr4 https://t.co/zLyZYhv5Z30 -
In Wales UKIP tended to take Labour rather than Tory votes in 2015.GarethoftheVale2 said:To my mind there are about half a dozen Con seats that are vulnerable to the LDs due to their high remain votes - Bath, Cheltenham, OXWAB, Winchester, Twickenham and Kingston. There are also others that the LDs ought to be able to make competitive like S Cambs and St Albans. A lot of the Con remain votes are in very safe seats like Wokingham.
However, I still think there is a greater opportunity for the Cons if they can take UKIP votes in the Midlands in places like Dudley, Coventry, Stoke, Walsall, Wolverhampton. Also Noirth Wales0 -
I can't seriously believe anyone thinks that Brexit has "ceased to be a salient issue". We haven't exited yet, hell we haven't even pressed the start button. Brexit and its consequences will dominate UK politics for the next decade.justin124 said:I don't accept the premise of the article - that how people voted in last June's Referendum will have a significant bearing on how they vote in a general election in 2020. Last week's by elections suggested that Brexit has already ceased to be a key salient issue. It is also often forgotten that a considerable proportion voted one way or the other in June 2016 with little enthusiasm - or indeed insight.
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I do hope this makes it into Season 2 of The Crown. I doubt it somehow.PlatoSaid said:BBC Archive
#OTD 1958: Prince Phillip was challenged to a Tiddlywinks game by Cambridge University. He dispatched his Royal Champions, The Goons https://t.co/CFjSXvq4Lq0 -
What's French for 'faffing about'?0
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Where I think OllyT is right is that how people voted in 2016 (and therefore analysis of which areas are for Leave) will have little salience. Opinion will shift.OllyT said:
I can't seriously believe anyone thinks that Brexit has "ceased to be a salient issue". We haven't exited yet, hell we haven't even pressed the start button. Brexit and its consequences will dominate UK politics for the next decade.justin124 said:I don't accept the premise of the article - that how people voted in last June's Referendum will have a significant bearing on how they vote in a general election in 2020. Last week's by elections suggested that Brexit has already ceased to be a key salient issue. It is also often forgotten that a considerable proportion voted one way or the other in June 2016 with little enthusiasm - or indeed insight.
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F1: Canada has a new deal to 2029. Very good news.0
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Don't think they understand the concept.Morris_Dancer said:What's French for 'faffing about'?
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Se faffabouter?Morris_Dancer said:What's French for 'faffing about'?
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There was not much sign of it in Copeland and Stoke last week - unless the collapse in the UKIP vote at Copeland to the Tories' advantage is cited as such. Even there , I would strongly suspect that nuclear power and Corbyn were more significant.OllyT said:
I can't seriously believe anyone thinks that Brexit has "ceased to be a salient issue". We haven't exited yet, hell we haven't even pressed the start button. Brexit and its consequences will dominate UK politics for the next decade.justin124 said:I don't accept the premise of the article - that how people voted in last June's Referendum will have a significant bearing on how they vote in a general election in 2020. Last week's by elections suggested that Brexit has already ceased to be a key salient issue. It is also often forgotten that a considerable proportion voted one way or the other in June 2016 with little enthusiasm - or indeed insight.
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The McDonald's near Birmingham New Street has had them since before Christmas.PlatoSaid said:Golly
DC Clothesline
It Begins: Wendy’s Installs Robots in 1,000 Stores to Counter Minimum Wage https://t.co/Doxs2CvUr4 https://t.co/zLyZYhv5Z30 -
Fillon has talked with both Sarkozy and Juppé.0
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Most voters dont know who their MP is until they start getting leaflets at the start of the short campaign, you over estimate how much most people care about the whole BrExit thing now the referendum has passed.OllyT said:
I can't seriously believe anyone thinks that Brexit has "ceased to be a salient issue". We haven't exited yet, hell we haven't even pressed the start button. Brexit and its consequences will dominate UK politics for the next decade.justin124 said:I don't accept the premise of the article - that how people voted in last June's Referendum will have a significant bearing on how they vote in a general election in 2020. Last week's by elections suggested that Brexit has already ceased to be a key salient issue. It is also often forgotten that a considerable proportion voted one way or the other in June 2016 with little enthusiasm - or indeed insight.
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Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. Evershed, thou art a bloody jester! I'll not have ye saying I'm outdated, forsooth.
Either outdated or American. Which is the worse epithet?0 -
Mr. Evershed, I'm a traditionalist, you bounder (I use the term 'huntress' quite a lot in books with Anja).0
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and a lot of the McDonald's in California I hear... the $15/hr minimum wage being introduced in some states has put a rocket up the automation roll-out.wasd said:
The McDonald's near Birmingham New Street has had them since before Christmas.PlatoSaid said:Golly
DC Clothesline
It Begins: Wendy’s Installs Robots in 1,000 Stores to Counter Minimum Wage https://t.co/Doxs2CvUr4 https://t.co/zLyZYhv5Z30 -
Fillon talking now.0
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He's on!0
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My view is somewhere between the two of you. I think most people have moved on. Most people are turned off by politics in general, though they may be briefly animated by particular issues. But those who haven't moved on are disproportionately represented among those who professionally opine about politics - so the noise of Brexit will continue to reverberate for a while yet.justin124 said:
There was not much sign of it in Copeland and Stoke last week - unless the collapse in the UKIP vote at Copeland to the Tories' advantage is cited as such. Even there , I would strongly suspect that nuclear power and Corbyn were more significant.OllyT said:
I can't seriously believe anyone thinks that Brexit has "ceased to be a salient issue". We haven't exited yet, hell we haven't even pressed the start button. Brexit and its consequences will dominate UK politics for the next decade.justin124 said:I don't accept the premise of the article - that how people voted in last June's Referendum will have a significant bearing on how they vote in a general election in 2020. Last week's by elections suggested that Brexit has already ceased to be a key salient issue. It is also often forgotten that a considerable proportion voted one way or the other in June 2016 with little enthusiasm - or indeed insight.
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Sounds like a prelude to 40 years of one party rule in England. Aaargh.felix said:Verulamius said:
How about taxing (say over £30k) the lump sums from pensions?rottenborough said:
Perhaps Mrs Gove can ask her husband to come up with another way of raising the billions needed for social care with an ageing population.TheScreamingEagles said:
Not just the Daily Mail but the wife of Michael Gove.rottenborough said:So it begins. The DM battle against any kind of death duty to pay for social care:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4269840/SARAH-VINE-wanted-death-taxes-d-vote-communist.html#ixzz4a3ZHmhjM
Given how influential she was in the Tory leadership contest and the slenderness of the Tory majority, be very afraid Mrs May.
I'd be interested in the polling for Scotland.DavidL said:
All completely MOE of course but the consolidation of the UKIP vote into the Tories appears to continue. This is a very positive trend for May and threatens to put her onto the largest share of the vote for any party for a considerable time. I do think people are underestimating the implications of this in the same way that many underestimated the SNP prior to 2015.dr_spyn said:Corbyn & McDonnell reaching out to SWP, that will work for them.
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/836869298748534784
Tory 17 point lead.
Farron also going nowhere.
Precedents: Sweden (SDP 1932-76) and in a way South Africa (National Party 1948-94).
Sweden had its one-party state under PR, too. SDP had to get 50-55%, not just 35-40% for May. If she matches the voting efficiency of Labour 2005 and the constituencies are equalised she'll be home and dry on 35%.0 -
Sounds like judges are after him...0
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There is a mixture of Leavers and Remainers everywhere, including Copeland. Leavers mostly vote Conservative or UKIP and Remainers mostly vote Labour or Lib Dem. The Conservatives will win almost everywhere as long as they can hoover up most of the Leaver votes and those votes are bigger than for the next largest party. That dynamic will change if more Remainers vote Conservative or Leavers vote Labour or Lib Dem. But as long as the more than 70% Brexit support/Party vote correlation holds, the Conservatives are sitting pretty.justin124 said:I don't accept the premise of the article - that how people voted in last June's Referendum will have a significant bearing on how they vote in a general election in 2020. Last week's by elections suggested that Brexit has already ceased to be a key salient issue. It is also often forgotten that a considerable proportion voted one way or the other in June 2016 with little enthusiasm - or indeed insight.
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Curiouser & curiouser - although the public oppose Mrs Clennell's deportation by a margin of more than 3:1, the chronology is not quite what initially appeared:
1988 – Arrives in the UK
1990 – Marries her husband John Clennell, a British citizen
1992 – Given indefinite leave to remain in UK
Later in 1992 – Moves to Singapore with her husband
1994 – Having lived outside the UK for more than two years, Mrs Clennell’s indefinite leave to remain lapses
1998 – Mrs Clennell’s husband and children return to the UK. Mrs Clennell remains in Singapore to care for her ill parents, although she would come back to the UK several times for short visits
2003- 2005 – Lives in Britain and makes numerous applications for leave to remain, all of which are rejected
2007 – Refused permission to enter the UK and is turned back from a UK airport
2012 – Makes another application at the British High Commission in Singapore, which is rejected on the basis that she did not provide proof of contact with her family
2013-2016 – Re-enters the UK and makes further applications for leave to remain. Again, all are rejected.
Early February 2017 – Mrs Clennell is taken to a Scottish detention centre
25 February 2017 – Mrs Clennell is deported to Singapore
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/03/01/deporting-irene-clennell-was-wrong-say-nearly-two-/
So in the last 29 years Mrs Clennell has spent about 8 years in the UK and 21 in Singapore.....
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Fillon: "The rule of law has been violated systematically".
This is a "political assassination".0 -
He certainly thinks so, playing the victim cardrottenborough said:Sounds like judges are after him...
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I noticed the BBC today using the term 'political pabulum' for faffing about.Morris_Dancer said:What's French for 'faffing about'?
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Looks like he might fight on...0
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Juppe zooming out on BF.0
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Not resigning then0
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"I will not withdraw"0
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Bloody Fillon.0
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Unbelievable.0
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TBH I expect the minimum wage increase only accelerated any such rollout by 6 or 12 months.AlsoIndigo said:
and a lot of the McDonald's in California I hear... the $15/hr minimum wage being introduced in some states has put a rocket up the automation roll-out.wasd said:
The McDonald's near Birmingham New Street has had them since before Christmas.PlatoSaid said:Golly
DC Clothesline
It Begins: Wendy’s Installs Robots in 1,000 Stores to Counter Minimum Wage https://t.co/Doxs2CvUr4 https://t.co/zLyZYhv5Z30 -
As you were everyone. A truly Malcolm Tucker morning.0
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"France is bigger than my mistakes".
Only yesterday I read Lillian Glass's book on the body language of liars. Fillon kept licking his lips and opening his eyes wide.0 -
Can his party axe him as candidate, or is this it?0
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Not an ideal position for a presidential campaign...0
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Marie Le Conte @youngvulgarian 2m2 minutes ago
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That sound you can hear is Macron and his people cheering and popping champagne in their HQ.0 -
Very defiant statement - playing the victim card0
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2003- 2005 – Lives in Britain and makes numerous applications for leave to remain, all of which are rejectedCarlottaVance said:Curiouser & curiouser - although the public oppose Mrs Clennell's deportation by a margin of more than 3:1, the chronology is not quite what initially appeared:
... chronology snipped ...
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/03/01/deporting-irene-clennell-was-wrong-say-nearly-two-/
So in the last 29 years Mrs Clennell has spent about 8 years in the UK and 21 in Singapore.....
This is the killer though, she has no ILR, so she is in the UK without a visa, almost any country in the world will throw you out on the spot, and certainly refuse to entertain any new applications, if you have stayed without a visa.0 -
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Juste encore une minute juste encore une minute0
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Well, bugger. I'd gotten nicely green on Juppe and Baroin, and that French Corbyn has just refused to resign like a decent fellow.
I'm not down at all, but still miffed.0 -
Interesting times in France.
In other news, there's been some progress in the Corrie Mckeague case:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-391258660 -
Macron is the next target.rottenborough said:Marie Le Conte @youngvulgarian 2m2 minutes ago
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That sound you can hear is Macron and his people cheering and popping champagne in their HQ.0 -
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It may work.Big_G_NorthWales said:Very defiant statement - playing the victim card
I'm not going to be laying him off @ 5/1. Arguably, he's value to back at those odds.
I think.
I'm not confident I have enough of a grasp of French politics to be properly betting on it, though.0 -
I assume everything is agenda driven these days.
The anti-Semitism bomb threats and badly drawn swastikas just look like obvious coordinated false flags. When a neo Nazi can't get a swastika right, and dozens of attacks appear from nowhere...
It's poisonous propaganda and I hope it stops pronto.
The MSM hate storm of Trump is incredible. And they are destroying themselves.
I expect the media war to continue for a while. They're fighting for audience share and their political ideology. Trying to shut down PewDiePie was just an example of their behaviour re new media threats.
YouTube have demonitised channels, including even the Rubin Report intv about Mohammed cartoons. Infowars has lost over $3m in ad revenue this month.
If you believe in free speech and debating ideas, the use of wallet censorship should worry you.0 -
Donnez-moi un breakedmundintokyo said:Juste encore une minute juste encore une minute
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This also struck me as curious:AlsoIndigo said:
2003- 2005 – Lives in Britain and makes numerous applications for leave to remain, all of which are rejectedCarlottaVance said:Curiouser & curiouser - although the public oppose Mrs Clennell's deportation by a margin of more than 3:1, the chronology is not quite what initially appeared:
... chronology snipped ...
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/03/01/deporting-irene-clennell-was-wrong-say-nearly-two-/
So in the last 29 years Mrs Clennell has spent about 8 years in the UK and 21 in Singapore.....
This is the killer though, she has no ILR, so she is in the UK without a visa, almost any country in the world will throw you out on the spot, and certainly refuse to entertain any new applications, if you have stayed without a visa.
2007 – Refused permission to enter the UK and is turned back from a UK airport
2012 – Makes another application at the British High Commission in Singapore, which is rejected on the basis that she did not provide proof of contact with her family
If the chronology is complete that's a five year gap away from her family, which may be why the British High Commission rejected [it] on the basis that she did not provide proof of contact with her family0 -
Certainly value. As it stands, the real race is Macron vs Fillon to make the run-off. Even accepting the risk of a Le Pen win in the 2nd round, 5/1 is generous in a two-and-a-half horse race.Pong said:
It may work.Big_G_NorthWales said:Very defiant statement - playing the victim card
I'm not going to be laying him off @ 5/1. Arguably, he's value to back at those odds.0
