I'm not going to be laying him off @ 5/1. Arguably, he's value to back at those odds.
Certainly value. As it stands, the real race is Macron vs Fillon to make the run-off. Even accepting the risk of a Le Pen win in the 2nd round, 5/1 is generous in a two-and-a-half horse race.
I don't accept the premise of the article - that how people voted in last June's Referendum will have a significant bearing on how they vote in a general election in 2020. Last week's by elections suggested that Brexit has already ceased to be a key salient issue. It is also often forgotten that a considerable proportion voted one way or the other in June 2016 with little enthusiasm - or indeed insight.
I can't seriously believe anyone thinks that Brexit has "ceased to be a salient issue". We haven't exited yet, hell we haven't even pressed the start button. Brexit and its consequences will dominate UK politics for the next decade.
There was not much sign of it in Copeland and Stoke last week - unless the collapse in the UKIP vote at Copeland to the Tories' advantage is cited as such. Even there , I would strongly suspect that nuclear power and Corbyn were more significant.
My view is somewhere between the two of you. I think most people have moved on. Most people are turned off by politics in general, though they may be briefly animated by particular issues. But those who haven't moved on are disproportionately represented among those who professionally opine about politics - so the noise of Brexit will continue to reverberate for a while yet.
Well, bugger. I'd gotten nicely green on Juppe and Baroin, and that French Corbyn has just refused to resign like a decent fellow.
I'm not down at all, but still miffed.
IDS refused to resign as well. One of your bets might yet come in. However, Juppe had been shortened much too far IMO, even before Fillon decided to fight on, and fight to win.
Seriously, what fun sponges, Gamergate with knobs on
Ian Miles Cheong GDC is hosting a presentation about "making games under fascism" and why it's important to #Resist Trump https://t.co/pc2KwyTsqT #GDC2017
If you believe in free speech and debating ideas, the use of wallet censorship should worry you.
In the same way POTUS using a bully pulit to call the press enemies of the people worries you...
No, no, no. You see those ones are ones she disagrees with. You see, if they say Trump good then they are telling the truth. If they say Trump bad then it is fake news. Got it?
Going to be interesting if its a Fillon-MLP second round and he gets indicted!
I'm not certain, but I think he might have immunity from prosecution once he's registered as a candidate.
Even worse! Supposing he is indicted for something fairly substantial. The French assembly then has the choice lifting his immunity and effectively handing the presidency to MPL, or deciding to keep it to fight MPL and handing her the biggest "they are all the same" stick imaginable to beat the mainstream politicians with.
Is Le Pen value yet? Unless Macron is totally clean, which would be a novelty in French politics, she might find her path to the Presidency cleared (with Fancy Bear help, no doubt).
Mr. Herdson, maybe. As I said, I'm not down, just annoyed.
Miss Plato, there was a complaint in one magazine about The Witcher 3 for being entirely white/having no black characters. It's set in a fictional world based on books, themselves based on Polish folklore.
It's ridiculous (and I think the other side daft as well, such as those grumpy about Idris Elba being a Norse god in Thor).
Speaking of such things, one reason I'm not getting Mass Effect: Andromeda is because Manveer Heir, one of the team working on it, has interesting views (and tweets) about white people.
Seriously, what fun sponges, Gamergate with knobs on
Ian Miles Cheong GDC is hosting a presentation about "making games under fascism" and why it's important to #Resist Trump https://t.co/pc2KwyTsqT #GDC2017
Gets you thinking, has any famous game come out of a (real) fascist regime? Fascist Italy and Nazi Germany were too early. We can thank Soviet Russia for Tetris though.
This is precisely what I have been trying to do since the referendum using this sort of data and whilst the national tally makes sense (Con 40%, Lab 27%, Lib Dem 9%, Green 5%, UKIP 14%, Others 5%) when I apply it to each of the local counting areas it comes out as complete nonsense, perhaps if I explain what I am doing people can tell me where I am going wrong.
In Adur, there were 16,914 REMAIN votes and 20,315 LEAVE votes. Using the polls I allocate the REMAIN votes in the proportions listed above and the LEAVE votes in the same proportions. This tells me that 4,736 REMAIN voters were Conservative and 10,361 LEAVE voters were Conservative for a total of 15,097 Conservative voters in Adur. Doing the same for each of the parties I come up with the following
Con 15,097 (41%), Lab 9,610 (26%), Lib Dem 3,316 (9%), Green 1,895 (5%), UKIP 5,451 (15%)
which sounds reasonable, but then you come to a place like Durham (Lab 49%, Con 25%, UKIP 16% at the general election) which comes out with the same vote shares.
Curiouser & curiouser - although the public oppose Mrs Clennell's deportation by a margin of more than 3:1, the chronology is not quite what initially appeared:
So in the last 29 years Mrs Clennell has spent about 8 years in the UK and 21 in Singapore.....
2003- 2005 – Lives in Britain and makes numerous applications for leave to remain, all of which are rejected
This is the killer though, she has no ILR, so she is in the UK without a visa, almost any country in the world will throw you out on the spot, and certainly refuse to entertain any new applications, if you have stayed without a visa.
Not necessarily on my understanding. ILR is a status that comes from meeting certain criteria. She can and probably did have a valid temporary visa that didn't of itself confer that status.
Having read a bit more about the case, it looks like Mrs Clennell made a number of bad decisions, the main one being not to apply for UK citizenship back in the 1990's. It looks like she may have wanted to retain her Singaporean passport as that country doesn't allow dual citizenship. She may have doomed herself when she left the UK for more than two years and lost her PR. We don't know why the UK government consistently refused her visa applications after that. My guess is that they suspected she would overstay her visa, which she did eventually of course. It's a Catch-22 because obviously the whole point was to settle in the UK
Seriously, what fun sponges, Gamergate with knobs on
Ian Miles Cheong GDC is hosting a presentation about "making games under fascism" and why it's important to #Resist Trump https://t.co/pc2KwyTsqT #GDC2017
Not a huge surprise given the twitter description of the person giving the talk: DG Collective creates inclusive events & community resources to support marginalized voices in DIY & independent games.
Seriously, what fun sponges, Gamergate with knobs on
Ian Miles Cheong GDC is hosting a presentation about "making games under fascism" and why it's important to #Resist Trump https://t.co/pc2KwyTsqT #GDC2017
Gets you thinking, has any famous game come out of a (real) fascist regime? Fascist Italy and Nazi Germany were too early. We can thank Soviet Russia for Tetris though.
Well, bugger. I'd gotten nicely green on Juppe and Baroin, and that French Corbyn has just refused to resign like a decent fellow.
I'm not down at all, but still miffed.
IDS refused to resign as well. One of your bets might yet come in. However, Juppe had been shortened much too far IMO, even before Fillon decided to fight on, and fight to win.
He's safe:
(((Dan Hodges)))Verified account @DPJHodges 21m21 minutes ago Fillon: "I will not give in, I will not give up, I am not prepared to withdraw". This time next week: "Sadly, I am withdrawing".
Seriously, what fun sponges, Gamergate with knobs on
Ian Miles Cheong GDC is hosting a presentation about "making games under fascism" and why it's important to #Resist Trump https://t.co/pc2KwyTsqT #GDC2017
Why not explain what gamergate was and why you object to trying to stop the misogynistic stereotypes of women in computer games.
Curiouser & curiouser - although the public oppose Mrs Clennell's deportation by a margin of more than 3:1, the chronology is not quite what initially appeared:
So in the last 29 years Mrs Clennell has spent about 8 years in the UK and 21 in Singapore.....
2003- 2005 – Lives in Britain and makes numerous applications for leave to remain, all of which are rejected
This is the killer though, she has no ILR, so she is in the UK without a visa, almost any country in the world will throw you out on the spot, and certainly refuse to entertain any new applications, if you have stayed without a visa.
Not necessarily on my understanding. ILR is a status that comes from meeting certain criteria. She can and probably did have a valid temporary visa that didn't of itself confer that status.
Having read a bit more about the case, it looks like Mrs Clennell made a number of bad decisions, the main one being not to apply for UK citizenship back in the 1990's. It looks like she may have wanted to retain her Singaporean passport as that country doesn't allow dual citizenship. She may have doomed herself when she left the UK for more than two years and lost her PR. We don't know why the UK government consistently refused her visa applications after that. My guess is that they suspected she would overstay her visa, which she did eventually of course. It's a Catch-22 because obviously the whole point was to settle in the UK
ILR is based on the assumption that you remain. You need to apply to UK Immigration for a waiver before you leave the country. If you leave the country without the waiver for more than a short length of time your ILR expires and you start again.
The process is that you get a single entry visa to enter as a spouse of the UK national. This last for two and a half years. At the end of that you now have to pass the income/savings check again, and if successful get issued a ILR. After a further 2.5 years you can apply for a UK Citizenship (and need to pass the earnings/savings check again).
Curiouser & curiouser - although the public oppose Mrs Clennell's deportation by a margin of more than 3:1, the chronology is not quite what initially appeared:
So in the last 29 years Mrs Clennell has spent about 8 years in the UK and 21 in Singapore.....
2003- 2005 – Lives in Britain and makes numerous applications for leave to remain, all of which are rejected
This is the killer though, she has no ILR, so she is in the UK without a visa, almost any country in the world will throw you out on the spot, and certainly refuse to entertain any new applications, if you have stayed without a visa.
Not necessarily on my understanding. ILR is a status that comes from meeting certain criteria. She can and probably did have a valid temporary visa that didn't of itself confer that status.
When Mrs Clennell arrived in 2003, assuming she arrived as Tourist (for Singaporeans, no visa required) she should have left after 6 months - so it appears she overstayed - which would explain why she was turned back in 2007.
Also when she applied for 'Indefinite Leave to Remain' she would have had to sign a declaration that she intended to remain in the UK for the foreseeable future - yet was back in Singapore that same year.
Mr. Matt, amongst the worst things of Sarkeesian whining about evil patriarchy, is that there are genuine problems of misogyny in videogames. Naughty Dog had to fight to get Ellie on the cover of The Last of Us, as one example.
But when you have people vastly over-egging the problem or being two-faced hypocrites (bleating about no female character models in one game, then complaining about loads of dead women [nobody gives a shit about dead men] in another) then genuine grievances which should be addressed get eclipsed by a tidal wave of bullshit.
I also think focusing solely on misogyny is a mistake. Male videogame developers, including one who patched a CoD game to alter reload times, also get threats. That individual had death threats aimed at his wife and children, but because he's a man it got far less coverage than an attack on women would have (similarly, a study last year indicated a majority of misogynistic abuse online was mostly committed by women...).
Curiouser & curiouser - although the public oppose Mrs Clennell's deportation by a margin of more than 3:1, the chronology is not quite what initially appeared:
So in the last 29 years Mrs Clennell has spent about 8 years in the UK and 21 in Singapore.....
2003- 2005 – Lives in Britain and makes numerous applications for leave to remain, all of which are rejected
This is the killer though, she has no ILR, so she is in the UK without a visa, almost any country in the world will throw you out on the spot, and certainly refuse to entertain any new applications, if you have stayed without a visa.
Not necessarily on my understanding. ILR is a status that comes from meeting certain criteria. She can and probably did have a valid temporary visa that didn't of itself confer that status.
Having read a bit more about the case, it looks like Mrs Clennell made a number of bad decisions, the main one being not to apply for UK citizenship back in the 1990's. It looks like she may have wanted to retain her Singaporean passport as that country doesn't allow dual citizenship. She may have doomed herself when she left the UK for more than two years and lost her PR. We don't know why the UK government consistently refused her visa applications after that. My guess is that they suspected she would overstay her visa, which she did eventually of course. It's a Catch-22 because obviously the whole point was to settle in the UK
ILR is based on the assumption that you remain. You need to apply to UK Immigration for a waiver before you leave the country. If you leave the country without the waiver for more than a short length of time your ILR expires and you start again.
Exactly. Or if you are a citizen. From the look of it she made a mistake in 1990 and has been paying for it since - although she may well not have processed her applications in a smart way since. We don't know what the UK Government's decision making was. The supposed grounds for rejection by the High Commission in Singapore on the grounds she didn't have contact with her family look to be spurious, simply from the timeline Carlotta provided
Seriously, what fun sponges, Gamergate with knobs on
Ian Miles Cheong GDC is hosting a presentation about "making games under fascism" and why it's important to #Resist Trump https://t.co/pc2KwyTsqT #GDC2017
Why not explain what gamergate was and why you object to trying to stop the misogynistic stereotypes of women in computer games.
Gamergate was cover for a vengeful ex to get back at his former girlfriend that got way out of hand.
Curiouser & curiouser - although the public oppose Mrs Clennell's deportation by a margin of more than 3:1, the chronology is not quite what initially appeared:
So in the last 29 years Mrs Clennell has spent about 8 years in the UK and 21 in Singapore.....
2003- 2005 – Lives in Britain and makes numerous applications for leave to remain, all of which are rejected
This is the killer though, she has no ILR, so she is in the UK without a visa, almost any country in the world will throw you out on the spot, and certainly refuse to entertain any new applications, if you have stayed without a visa.
Not necessarily on my understanding. ILR is a status that comes from meeting certain criteria. She can and probably did have a valid temporary visa that didn't of itself confer that status.
When Mrs Clennell arrived in 2003, assuming she arrived as Tourist (for Singaporeans, no visa required) she should have left after 6 months - so it appears she overstayed - which would explain why she was turned back in 2007.
Also when she applied for 'Indefinite Leave to Remain' she would have had to sign a declaration that she intended to remain in the UK for the foreseeable future - yet was back in Singapore that same year.
That's possible. Equally she may have had a valid "family of a settled person" visa, which is timelimited and doesn't necessarily confer ILR.
Seriously, what fun sponges, Gamergate with knobs on
Ian Miles Cheong GDC is hosting a presentation about "making games under fascism" and why it's important to #Resist Trump https://t.co/pc2KwyTsqT #GDC2017
Why not explain what gamergate was and why you object to trying to stop the misogynistic stereotypes of women in computer games.
Gamergate was cover for a vengeful ex to get back at his former girlfriend that got way out of hand.
Yes. Then the bedroom dwellers got out of control. Tell that to the professional cut and pasters.
This is precisely what I have been trying to do since the referendum using this sort of data and whilst the national tally makes sense (Con 40%, Lab 27%, Lib Dem 9%, Green 5%, UKIP 14%, Others 5%) when I apply it to each of the local counting areas it comes out as complete nonsense, perhaps if I explain what I am doing people can tell me where I am going wrong.
In Adur, there were 16,914 REMAIN votes and 20,315 LEAVE votes. Using the polls I allocate the REMAIN votes in the proportions listed above and the LEAVE votes in the same proportions. This tells me that 4,736 REMAIN voters were Conservative and 10,361 LEAVE voters were Conservative for a total of 15,097 Conservative voters in Adur. Doing the same for each of the parties I come up with the following
Con 15,097 (41%), Lab 9,610 (26%), Lib Dem 3,316 (9%), Green 1,895 (5%), UKIP 5,451 (15%)
which sounds reasonable, but then you come to a place like Durham (Lab 49%, Con 25%, UKIP 16% at the general election) which comes out with the same vote shares.
You simply can't do that. The voter types (notably Labour's) are different in each seat. To try to conduct the sort of exercise you want to do would, I think, require Mosaic-style data as to the types of voters/households in each constituency.
I don't accept the premise of the article - that how people voted in last June's Referendum will have a significant bearing on how they vote in a general election in 2020. Last week's by elections suggested that Brexit has already ceased to be a key salient issue. It is also often forgotten that a considerable proportion voted one way or the other in June 2016 with little enthusiasm - or indeed insight.
I can't seriously believe anyone thinks that Brexit has "ceased to be a salient issue". We haven't exited yet, hell we haven't even pressed the start button. Brexit and its consequences will dominate UK politics for the next decade.
There was not much sign of it in Copeland and Stoke last week - unless the collapse in the UKIP vote at Copeland to the Tories' advantage is cited as such. Even there , I would strongly suspect that nuclear power and Corbyn were more significant.
My view is somewhere between the two of you. I think most people have moved on. Most people are turned off by politics in general, though they may be briefly animated by particular issues. But those who haven't moved on are disproportionately represented among those who professionally opine about politics - so the noise of Brexit will continue to reverberate for a while yet.
I think the relevance of Brexit will vary across different seats depending on who is in contention. For Labour and the Conservatives it's in their interest to play the issue down to keep their coalitions together. The SNP have found it to be a double edged sword in that taking a pro-Remain stance has repelled as many of their voters as it has attracted new ones. UKIP look a bit pointless given that the government are implementing Brexit.
The Lib Dems are the only party who are profiting from focussing on Brexit, so for the moment only seats with strong Lib Dem organisations are likely to see much campaigning on the issue.
That doesn't mean that voters have moved on. My experience in Scotland was that once people have expressed their opinion in a referendum they're very reluctant to change it. The polling has remained very consistent following both the independence referendum and the EU one. I suspect that disgruntled remainers will be a large potential pool of support for years to come.
From canvassing I'd say that a small number of people say that they still support remain, but believe that the democratic outcome of the referendum must be respected. Usually I suspect this is due to the fact that they don't want to switch from their current party of choice.
Glad my political instincts have been backed up by Andy's more quantitative work. I had been thinking much along the lines of your header, Alastair, and, without doing the maths, had concluded that it was probably a wash between Leave and Remain for constituency seats.
Comments
Ian Miles Cheong
GDC is hosting a presentation about "making games under fascism" and why it's important to #Resist Trump https://t.co/pc2KwyTsqT #GDC2017
"Wife of French presidential candidate Fillon held for questioning: report".
Miss Plato, there was a complaint in one magazine about The Witcher 3 for being entirely white/having no black characters. It's set in a fictional world based on books, themselves based on Polish folklore.
It's ridiculous (and I think the other side daft as well, such as those grumpy about Idris Elba being a Norse god in Thor).
Speaking of such things, one reason I'm not getting Mass Effect: Andromeda is because Manveer Heir, one of the team working on it, has interesting views (and tweets) about white people.
In Adur, there were 16,914 REMAIN votes and 20,315 LEAVE votes. Using the polls I allocate the REMAIN votes in the proportions listed above and the LEAVE votes in the same proportions. This tells me that 4,736 REMAIN voters were Conservative and 10,361 LEAVE voters were Conservative for a total of 15,097 Conservative voters in Adur. Doing the same for each of the parties I come up with the following
Con 15,097 (41%), Lab 9,610 (26%), Lib Dem 3,316 (9%), Green 1,895 (5%), UKIP 5,451 (15%)
which sounds reasonable, but then you come to a place like Durham (Lab 49%, Con 25%, UKIP 16% at the general election) which comes out with the same vote shares.
Having read a bit more about the case, it looks like Mrs Clennell made a number of bad decisions, the main one being not to apply for UK citizenship back in the 1990's. It looks like she may have wanted to retain her Singaporean passport as that country doesn't allow dual citizenship. She may have doomed herself when she left the UK for more than two years and lost her PR. We don't know why the UK government consistently refused her visa applications after that. My guess is that they suspected she would overstay her visa, which she did eventually of course. It's a Catch-22 because obviously the whole point was to settle in the UK
https://twitter.com/DRIVETRIBES/status/836908891690553344
(((Dan Hodges)))Verified account @DPJHodges 21m21 minutes ago
Fillon: "I will not give in, I will not give up, I am not prepared to withdraw". This time next week: "Sadly, I am withdrawing".
The process is that you get a single entry visa to enter as a spouse of the UK national. This last for two and a half years. At the end of that you now have to pass the income/savings check again, and if successful get issued a ILR. After a further 2.5 years you can apply for a UK Citizenship (and need to pass the earnings/savings check again).
NEW THREAD
Also when she applied for 'Indefinite Leave to Remain' she would have had to sign a declaration that she intended to remain in the UK for the foreseeable future - yet was back in Singapore that same year.
But when you have people vastly over-egging the problem or being two-faced hypocrites (bleating about no female character models in one game, then complaining about loads of dead women [nobody gives a shit about dead men] in another) then genuine grievances which should be addressed get eclipsed by a tidal wave of bullshit.
I also think focusing solely on misogyny is a mistake. Male videogame developers, including one who patched a CoD game to alter reload times, also get threats. That individual had death threats aimed at his wife and children, but because he's a man it got far less coverage than an attack on women would have (similarly, a study last year indicated a majority of misogynistic abuse online was mostly committed by women...).
PMQs used to be severe test of PM - now she's speaking Welsh and joking about whether the Speaker has had a shower or not
Newsreel footage of the 1954 shooting in the House Chamber. #OTD https://t.co/8BXJEvJhrC
President Trueman
The Lib Dems are the only party who are profiting from focussing on Brexit, so for the moment only seats with strong Lib Dem organisations are likely to see much campaigning on the issue.
That doesn't mean that voters have moved on. My experience in Scotland was that once people have expressed their opinion in a referendum they're very reluctant to change it. The polling has remained very consistent following both the independence referendum and the EU one. I suspect that disgruntled remainers will be a large potential pool of support for years to come.
From canvassing I'd say that a small number of people say that they still support remain, but believe that the democratic outcome of the referendum must be respected. Usually I suspect this is due to the fact that they don't want to switch from their current party of choice.