politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Mapping across – how the Brexit vote might translate onto the
Comments
-
The problem will be hypothecation. Probably needs to go into a National Social Care Fund. But that will encourage people not to provide for their own social care.AlsoIndigo said:
Raise national insurance on everyone. By starting it in the 50s and 60s you are throwing away 30 years on compounding on the investments. Also the average age of the country is 40, by starting in the 50s you are dramatically reducing the pool to collect from and so increasing the amount you need to collect. 0.5% on NI all the way up would be my starting proposal, most people wouldn't even notice it.HYUFD said:
You can get an annuity for about £70 000 but yes raising National Insurance on 50 to 65s is by far the best way of paying for social care especially as everyone would have to pay it and everyone will potentially need social care whereas almost 40% now rent and do not own a property anyway so this new socialist death tax would raise next to nothing from them at allCharles said:
Annuities are a crap idea. The average person gets utterly screwed by insurance companies. And so much depends on luck - anyone forced to have taken an annuity in the last 8 years, for instance, would have their life's savings swapped for a pittance.HYUFD said:
Quite right too and millions of Tory voters and Tory members like me will agree with her. Increasing national insurance on the middle-aged and encouraging annuities is a far better way of funding social care. Hammond's 'consultation' on this will likely drop itrottenborough said:So it begins. The DM battle against any kind of death duty to pay for social care:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4269840/SARAH-VINE-wanted-death-taxes-d-vote-communist.html#ixzz4a3ZHmhjM0 -
The death tax looks like classic pre-budget kite-flying so that whatever is actually unveiled looks much more palatable by comparison.0
-
Juppe at 29 earlier looking like a bargain.0
-
Betsy got off lightly in comparison.dr_spyn said:Bloomberg - Mme Fillon in custody.
0 -
If he pulls out and my guess is that he will not, then Baroin and Juppe are the obvious replacements. I am guessing it would be not be Juppe because if it was a possiblity then Bayrou had previously said he would be supporting Juppe and he would have had his ear to the ground and delayed his alliance with Macron.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. G, if that happens, cui bono?
Edited extra bit: hmm. Should it be qui bono?
My Latin is not splendid.
However, he does need to do SOMETHING to kickstart his campaign if he is going to continue. SO that is why I alluded to an announcement about any death threats or similar that he and his wife have received. That would perhaps garner a few extra per cent, if he pursues the "victim strategy" route.0 -
Mr. Z, cheers, mon ami.
Juppe layable at 17 on Betfair, but price is still declining.
I'm still green whatever happens.
Macron layable at 2.06.0 -
Morris_Dancer said:
Damn, just missed 101 on Juppe on Ladbrokes. Got 51.
0 -
I get knocked out but I get Juppé again?rottenborough said:
Fillon moving out on BF.dr_spyn said:https://twitter.com/business/status/836872509278588928
Bloomberg - Mme Fillon in custody.
Is there some one other than Juppe who could take over? I am getting worried now as green on the whole thing except for some unknown taking Fillon's post.0 -
Fillon and Juppe approaching cross-over0
-
It's thought control. Imagine an ad for chauffeur to the Pope " The Pope feels HIV is more prevalent in the homosexual community and doesn't believe in contaception. Have you got a clean driving licence?"Sean_F said:
Try the test of opposites.Roger said:
Yes. Have you? It's even got a picture of leering Liam Fox!Pulpstar said:
Have you read the article ?Roger said:
It was only a matter of time. They'll have us wearing yellow stars before you can say 'Hartlepool'. Interesting choice of shot by the Guardian. They're very good at thatTheScreamingEagles said:Are you now or have you ever been a Remainer?
Firms bidding for government contracts asked if they back Brexit
Department for International Trade says tech companies should have the right ‘cultural fit’ if they want to be hired
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/01/firms-bidding-for-government-contracts-asked-if-they-back-brexit?CMP=share_btn_tw
That is not what the job description says at all, I believe the story has a misleading header.
"Contractors bidding for work with the government are being asked to affirm that they back Brexit.
Liam Fox’s Department for International Trade (DIT) has inserted a clause into advertisements inviting tech companies to bid for work, saying that in order to have the right “cultural fit” for the task, they must “be committed to the best possible outcome for the United Kingdom following its departure from the European Union”.
Pro-Brexit ministers have sometimes been frustrated by civil servants’ lack of enthusiasm for the complex task of unpicking Britain’s close relationship with the EU and appear to be determined to hire firms that share their optimism."
Do we want contractors who are not committed to the best possible outcome, or who are committed to the worst possible outcome?0 -
Wow! I don't think that storyline was in the Spin TV seriesdr_spyn said:https://twitter.com/business/status/836872509278588928
Bloomberg - Mme Fillon in custody.0 -
I suspected that was the case, doesn't mean we can't start moving back that way, with a sufficiently broad based NI increase there should be a surplus for government investment against future social care charges, we should join the world of countries with Sovereign Wealth Fundsrottenborough said:
The trouble is there is no compound on NI contributions. As I understand it what comes in, goes out on pensions etc. There is no pot of money that is slowly growing as was originally intended.AlsoIndigo said:
Raise national insurance on everyone. By starting it in the 50s and 60s you are throwing away 30 years on compounding on the investments. Also the average age of the country is 40, by starting in the 50s you are dramatically reducing the pool to collect from and so increasing the amount you need to collect. 0.5% on NI all the way up would be my starting proposal, most people wouldn't even notice it.HYUFD said:
You can get an annuity for about £70 000 but yes raising National Insurance on 50 to 65s is by far the best way of paying for social care especially as everyone would have to pay it and everyone will potentially need social care whereas almost 40% now rent and do not own a property anyway so this new socialist death tax would raise next to nothing from them at allCharles said:
Annuities are a crap idea. The average person gets utterly screwed by insurance companies. And so much depends on luck - anyone forced to have taken an annuity in the last 8 years, for instance, would have their life's savings swapped for a pittance.HYUFD said:
Quite right too and millions of Tory voters and Tory members like me will agree with her. Increasing national insurance on the middle-aged and encouraging annuities is a far better way of funding social care. Hammond's 'consultation' on this will likely drop itrottenborough said:So it begins. The DM battle against any kind of death duty to pay for social care:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4269840/SARAH-VINE-wanted-death-taxes-d-vote-communist.html#ixzz4a3ZHmhjM
0 -
Mont Blanc. This is a terrible time for me to head to America and no access to Betfair.
My Betfair position on the next French President market could be redder than a Game of Thrones wedding0 -
So there was thoughtcrime, dumb insolence, general attitude and false consciousness all along? Thought so. But would not the same problems have bedevilled us post-Remain victory, or were the Leave voting 48% to be forcibly subjected to reeducation?AlastairMeeks said:
On the last point, I took the figures from Chris Hanretty, who had a higher estimate (see above). Happy to be corrected.
On your second point, policies are usually more popular after they are passed than beforehand. Brexit is a conspicuous exception.
And on your first point, it would be hard to argue that membership of the EU was a conspicuous success, in large part for precisely the reason that a large part of the country did not get behind the idea. Which augurs badly for Brexit too.
Perhaps we need a Man in the High Castle remake set in a post-Remain victory UK to explore the issue.0 -
Damn, Juppe rising on Betfair. Think I missed the boat, though 18.5 is there.0
-
Sarkozy to make a comeback?rottenborough said:
Fillon moving out on BF.dr_spyn said:https://twitter.com/business/status/836872509278588928
Bloomberg - Mme Fillon in custody.
Is there some one other than Juppe who could take over? I am getting worried now as green on the whole thing except for some unknown taking Fillon's post.0 -
That would be great (betting wise), I am on him for a big pay day if that happens. Seems highly unlikely - isn't he under investigation as well.DecrepitJohnL said:
Sarkozy to make a comeback?rottenborough said:
Fillon moving out on BF.dr_spyn said:https://twitter.com/business/status/836872509278588928
Bloomberg - Mme Fillon in custody.
Is there some one other than Juppe who could take over? I am getting worried now as green on the whole thing except for some unknown taking Fillon's post.0 -
All completely MOE of course but the consolidation of the UKIP vote into the Tories appears to continue. This is a very positive trend for May and threatens to put her onto the largest share of the vote for any party for a considerable time. I do think people are underestimating the implications of this in the same way that many underestimated the SNP prior to 2015.dr_spyn said:Corbyn & McDonnell reaching out to SWP, that will work for them.
https://twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/836869298748534784
Tory 17 point lead.
Farron also going nowhere.0 -
Just backed £20 of Fillon at 8.0 on Betfair.
Seems like a good time to buy.0 -
Want to get some work done so I can't stare at the numbers all day. Hedged Juppe at 17.5 on Betfair having backed at 51. All even for the other three, now green if Juppe gets it as well.
Juppe still 34 on Ladbrokes.0 -
I'd agree. If the press conference comes to nothing, then you have bagged a bargain.Pulpstar said:Just backed £20 of Fillon at 8.0 on Betfair.
Seems like a good time to buy.
edit: couldn't resist, taken a few Fillons myself.0 -
Mr. Borough, I hope you're giving me the thumbs up on the 51 and not the thumbs up on missing better odds
Mr. Eagles, I hope you're not visiting the Senate on the Ides of March.0 -
51. Way better than BF was first thing this morning. I got on at 29. Happy enough though.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Borough, I hope you're giving me the thumbs up on the 51 and not the thumbs up on missing better odds
Mr. Eagles, I hope you're not visiting the Senate on the Ides of March.0 -
Is a flying visit to New York. Fly tonight. Back Saturday.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Borough, I hope you're giving me the thumbs up on the 51 and not the thumbs up on missing better odds
Mr. Eagles, I hope you're not visiting the Senate on the Ides of March.0 -
0
-
Juppé will be present at Fillon's statement but 'does not want to talk at this stage of the day'.0
-
Bugger. Juppe now just 12.5 on the lay odds (Betfair).
Ah well. My overall picture is the same, only difference being added greenery if Juppe wins.0 -
34? Wow. So is BF just faster market to react or just full of over-excited PBers like me?Morris_Dancer said:Want to get some work done so I can't stare at the numbers all day. Hedged Juppe at 17.5 on Betfair having backed at 51. All even for the other three, now green if Juppe gets it as well.
Juppe still 34 on Ladbrokes.0 -
It would be fair to expect the Pope's chauffeur to be somewhat supportive of Catholicism. Or at any rate, not hostile.Roger said:
It's thought control. Imagine an ad for chauffeur to the Pope " The Pope feels HIV is more prevalent in the homosexual community and doesn't believe in contaception. Have you got a clean driving licence?"Sean_F said:
Try the test of opposites.Roger said:
Yes. Have you? It's even got a picture of leering Liam Fox!Pulpstar said:
Have you read the article ?Roger said:
It was only a matter of time. They'll have us wearing yellow stars before you can say 'Hartlepool'. Interesting choice of shot by the Guardian. They're very good at thatTheScreamingEagles said:Are you now or have you ever been a Remainer?
Firms bidding for government contracts asked if they back Brexit
Department for International Trade says tech companies should have the right ‘cultural fit’ if they want to be hired
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/01/firms-bidding-for-government-contracts-asked-if-they-back-brexit?CMP=share_btn_tw
That is not what the job description says at all, I believe the story has a misleading header.
"Contractors bidding for work with the government are being asked to affirm that they back Brexit.
Liam Fox’s Department for International Trade (DIT) has inserted a clause into advertisements inviting tech companies to bid for work, saying that in order to have the right “cultural fit” for the task, they must “be committed to the best possible outcome for the United Kingdom following its departure from the European Union”.
Pro-Brexit ministers have sometimes been frustrated by civil servants’ lack of enthusiasm for the complex task of unpicking Britain’s close relationship with the EU and appear to be determined to hire firms that share their optimism."
Do we want contractors who are not committed to the best possible outcome, or who are committed to the worst possible outcome?0 -
Juppe banned for corruption, had sentenced reduced. Hard to see how he is going to run.williamglenn said:Juppé will be present at Fillon's statement but 'does not want to talk at this stage of the day'.
0 -
F1: Vettel the only chap on-track.
There are only 8 days of pre-season testing. Surprised more aren't making the most of this limited opportunity to go gremlin-hunting.0 -
Thnk Baroin is probably the likelier replacement than Juppe, for reasons I gave earlier.Probably avaialble at a lot higher odds than Juppe tooMorris_Dancer said:Want to get some work done so I can't stare at the numbers all day. Hedged Juppe at 17.5 on Betfair having backed at 51. All even for the other three, now green if Juppe gets it as well.
Juppe still 34 on Ladbrokes.0 -
Oh blimey. Baroin it is then?dr_spyn said:
Juppe banned for corruption, had sentenced reduced. Hard to see how he is going to run.williamglenn said:Juppé will be present at Fillon's statement but 'does not want to talk at this stage of the day'.
0 -
Mr. Borough, already down to 17 on Ladbrokes. The bookie's moved pretty quickly.0
-
Mr. G, cheers. Put a little on Baroin at 32 (Betfair, 17 on Ladbrokes).
Hopefully, between now and then, his odds will decline and I can hedge again.0 -
I'm on team Sarkozy.
Because we need to see more of Carla Bruni.0 -
Yes, I know I'm shallow.0
-
Meant to be working...
Juppe now 5.1/8.8 on Betfair. I cocked up my hedge, but never mind.0 -
I think they're all still in bed in Primrose Hill.JosiasJessop said:
What about indecent ones?JackW said:First ....
After the 6am embargo for decent PBers ....
0 -
Juppe banned in 2004, sentenced later reduced.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2004/feb/04/france.jonhenley
Would be a comeback similar to that of Liverpool in Istanbul.0 -
Question: why has almost all the Betfair activity been on Juppe and Fillon, with Baroin not moving as much?0
-
The French presidency is annoying,
-563.37 Le Pen
+148.12 Macron
+474.14 Melenchon
+298.99 Fillon
+182.58 Juppe
-218.87 Hamon
-20.73 Other
Fair value of -£36.
First book I've had to play underwater for a while.0 -
Mr. Pulpstar, first time I've ever been all-green (only for a few pounds on most chaps. I want Baroin and Juppe's odds to decline further).0
-
I've been saved!!! This helped:Pulpstar said:The French presidency is annoying,
-563.37 Le Pen
+148.12 Macron
+474.14 Melenchon
+298.99 Fillon
+182.58 Juppe
-218.87 Hamon
-20.73 Other
Fair value of -£36.
First book I've had to play underwater for a while.
Alain Juppe 530 £0.63 £333.27
Ref: 86543209494 Matched: 18:58 27-Feb-17
Alain Juppe 530 £0.63 £333.27
Ref: 86543209494 Matched: 18:58 27-Feb-17
Alain Juppe 530 £0.64 £338.56
Ref: 86543209494 Matched: 18:05 27-Feb-17
Alain Juppe 530 £3.10 £1,639.90
Ref: 86543209494 Matched: 19:10 27-Feb-170 -
I can't believe they're going to sub in a loser like Juppe. Would have been like Trump giving up and sticking Cruz, Kasich or Rubio in or some such.
Surely Les Republicans aren't that thick ?0 -
0
-
Are there rules for when someone drops out?Pulpstar said:I can't believe they're going to sub in a loser like Juppe. Would have been like Trump giving up and sticking Cruz, Kasich or Rubio in or some such.
Surely Les Republicans aren't that thick ?0 -
I think you are right. Which means there is only partisan upside for Mrs May to entrench the Conservatives as the Brexit Party.Sean_F said:
Not many Conservative Remainers have a strong emotional commitment to the EU, unlike their Labour and Lib Dem counterparts.FF43 said:Based on the Scottish precedent, I think Brexit is likely to have a long lasting effect that benefits the Conservatives.
First Scotland. If you support independence there is a 85%-90% probability of you voting SNP (with a small leakage to the Greens). If you don't, you will vote for one of Conservative, Labour or Lib Dems on a similar probability. With one major pro-independence party and several pro-Union parties, the SNP is more or less guaranteed to have more votes than the second party anywhere in Scotland and win every FPTP election they stand for (Holyrood is semi-FPTP)
The percentages are less stark in England and Wales re Brexit, but a similar effect is certainly there. IIRC 70% of Conservative voters think Brexit is a good idea; 95% of UKIP voters; while only 20% of Labour voters and 15% of Lib Dems. Both Brexit factions have party splits but the Conservatives do better relatively against UKIP than Labour does against the Lib Dems. They also have that useful 30% continuity Remainers who are sticking with them regardless of the Leave vote. Most important, Theresa May is entrenching the Conservatives' Brexit advantage by pursuing a rhetorically hard Brexit and in doing so undermining UKIP to make the Conservatives the undisputed Party of Brexit0 -
They are French. They thought the Maginot Line was a good idea.Pulpstar said:I can't believe they're going to sub in a loser like Juppe. Would have been like Trump giving up and sticking Cruz, Kasich or Rubio in or some such.
Surely Les Republicans aren't that thick ?0 -
But he wasn't in the primary was he? Am I missing something.TheScreamingEagles said:Ooh. Time to go balls deep on Baroin.
https://twitter.com/hugoclement/status/8368796734769315850 -
Until a credible Labour centrist appears and the Tories find themselves in the ideological dead end they spent the late 90's and early noughties.FF43 said:
I think you are right. Which means there is only partisan upside for Mrs May to entrench the Conservatives as the Brexit Party.Sean_F said:
Not many Conservative Remainers have a strong emotional commitment to the EU, unlike their Labour and Lib Dem counterparts.FF43 said:Based on the Scottish precedent, I think Brexit is likely to have a long lasting effect that benefits the Conservatives.
First Scotland. If you support independence there is a 85%-90% probability of you voting SNP (with a small leakage to the Greens). If you don't, you will vote for one of Conservative, Labour or Lib Dems on a similar probability. With one major pro-independence party and several pro-Union parties, the SNP is more or less guaranteed to have more votes than the second party anywhere in Scotland and win every FPTP election they stand for (Holyrood is semi-FPTP)
The percentages are less stark in England and Wales re Brexit, but a similar effect is certainly there. IIRC 70% of Conservative voters think Brexit is a good idea; 95% of UKIP voters; while only 20% of Labour voters and 15% of Lib Dems. Both Brexit factions have party splits but the Conservatives do better relatively against UKIP than Labour does against the Lib Dems. They also have that useful 30% continuity Remainers who are sticking with them regardless of the Leave vote. Most important, Theresa May is entrenching the Conservatives' Brexit advantage by pursuing a rhetorically hard Brexit and in doing so undermining UKIP to make the Conservatives the undisputed Party of Brexit0 -
Mrs Fillon may not be in custody after all.0
-
Baroin looks plausible to me. He's an unknown quantity - which is far superior to the known losers Juppe or Sarkozy.TheScreamingEagles said:
They are French. They thought the Maginot Line was a good idea.Pulpstar said:I can't believe they're going to sub in a loser like Juppe. Would have been like Trump giving up and sticking Cruz, Kasich or Rubio in or some such.
Surely Les Republicans aren't that thick ?
Just put £34 on Baroin at 17 anyway.0 -
Marie Le Conte @youngvulgarian 5m5 minutes ago
More
Marie Le Conte Retweeted Hugo Clément
FYI: Baroin is a Sarko protégé rumoured to be wanting to run if Fillon/Juppé/Sarko aren't. No idea what's going on.0 -
Penelope Fillon is NOT in custody. WTF is going on?
https://twitter.com/michel_delean/status/8368771096247705610 -
Baroin has been aiming some fire at Bayrou over the last week, blaming him for the election of Hollande.TheScreamingEagles said:Ooh. Time to go balls deep on Baroin.
@TheScreamingEagles - His partner is the great comedy actress Michèle Laroque.0 -
Have we all been led a merry dance this morning worthy of Malcolm Tucker?0
-
Mr. Eagles, maybe she was questioned, but not arrested?0
-
Yeah. Not a great example. Fitting in with the Pope's world view might be a reasonable requirement for a personal servant, whereas according with the Minister's world view less essential for an IT contractor.Sean_F said:
It would be fair to expect the Pope's chauffeur to be somewhat supportive of Catholicism. Or at any rate, not hostile.Roger said:It's thought control. Imagine an ad for chauffeur to the Pope " The Pope feels HIV is more prevalent in the homosexual community and doesn't believe in contaception. Have you got a clean driving licence?"
Now I come to think of it, I think there are Civil Service guidelines that cover it off. Basically it's a regime of positive neutrality. You do what you are told and nothing that undermines the policy, while at the same time having no opinion on the policy.
0 -
-
Apart from the increasingly large chunk of 50 to 65's that have no choice but to pay eye watering rents.HYUFD said:
I could live with that but at least the 50 to 65s have largely paid off the mortgage and their children have left homeAlsoIndigo said:
Raise national insurance on everyone. By starting it in the 50s and 60s you are throwing away 30 years on compounding on the investments. Also the average age of the country is 40, by starting in the 50s you are dramatically reducing the pool to collect from and so increasing the amount you need to collect. 0.5% on NI all the way up would be my starting proposal, most people wouldn't even notice it.HYUFD said:
You can get an annuity for about £70 000 but yes raising National Insurance on 50 to 65s is by far the best way of paying for social care especially as everyone would have to pay it and everyone will potentially need social care whereas almost 40% now rent and do not own a property anyway so this new socialist death tax would raise next to nothing from them at allCharles said:
Annuities are a crap idea. The average person gets utterly screwed by insurance companies. And so much depends on luck - anyone forced to have taken an annuity in the last 8 years, for instance, would have their life's savings swapped for a pittance.HYUFD said:
Quite right too and millions of Tory voters and Tory members like me will agree with her. Increasing national insurance on the middle-aged and encouraging annuities is a far better way of funding social care. Hammond's 'consultation' on this will likely drop itrottenborough said:So it begins. The DM battle against any kind of death duty to pay for social care:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4269840/SARAH-VINE-wanted-death-taxes-d-vote-communist.html#ixzz4a3ZHmhjM
I am torn on this while I agree that people should pay their own way the side effect is that for many people the only chance they will have of ever owning their own home now is by inheriting. Using the home to pay for care means that increasingly the housing stock of the country will be concentrated in fewer and fewer hands, maybe something we aren't concerned about.
Like a lot of things in this country it also affects those that make provision for their old age while giving a free pass to those who don't0 -
Baroin pretty much level with Juppe now. Wonder if the odds on the former will decline further.
Edited extra bit: can be awkward keeping track of things with bets split across Ladbrokes and Betfair...0 -
I get the feeling my French tutors would be immensely disappointed to learn that I'm currently using my knowledge of the French language to gamble heavily on the French Presidential election.0
-
0
-
Just hedged Baroin at 11 (backed at 32). Only tiny stakes, of course, but now, when things settle down, Baroin and Juppe both have hedgeable margins. Ahead by a smaller sum if Le Pen or Fillon win. Also fairly green (by my standards, I know most here bet far more than me) on Macron.0
-
Problem is there is never one of those around when you want oneJonathanD said:
Until a credible Labour centrist appears and the Tories find themselves in the ideological dead end they spent the late 90's and early noughties.FF43 said:I think you are right. Which means there is only partisan upside for Mrs May to entrench the Conservatives as the Brexit Party.
For most of the next decade it is going to be Corbyn or Corbyn's anointed successor. If Corbyn goes before the next GE he will insist on a hard left candidate on the slate, who the membership will then select. If after a shafting at the next GE, it could be anyone, but that anyone won't get to put a platform before the voters until 2025, by which time BrExit is going to be old news for almost everyone. 0 -
Incidentally, after a rare event of managing to back and hedge in a developing situation, I will be bloody annoyed if Fillon doesn't stand down now.0
-
You should bet enough that it is painful but not catastrophic if you lose.Morris_Dancer said:Just hedged Baroin at 11 (backed at 32). Only tiny stakes, of course, but now, when things settle down, Baroin and Juppe both have hedgeable margins. Ahead by a smaller sum if Le Pen or Fillon win. Also fairly green (by my standards, I know most here bet far more than me) on Macron.
0 -
I reeeeeeeeeally wish I could speak/read french right now.0
-
Baroin has arrived at HQ.0
-
0
-
I've got a (less good than Behr's, obviously) thread header on May coming up. There was a quote by a Labour MP which I was searching for re the 2015 GE and couldn't find - in essence, Labour got blindsided because the evil austerity Tories actually were on the centre ground, in values terms.CarlottaVance said:Behr:
The reactionaries won’t admit they’ve won, and the liberals haven’t grasped the scale of their defeat. That is good for May, who navigates through the middle. She read the cultural mood when it was against her party in opposition. Now she co-opts a different mood as her personal project in power. That doesn’t mean she will make a success of Brexit, as she promises. The real process hasn’t even begun. The economy will soon enough be the big theme in politics again. Then the warnings issued by two former prime ministers might resonate. But for now, it is culture wars that dominate, and the current prime minister who commands the field.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/mar/01/brexit-british-culture-theresa-may-tony-blair-john-major0 -
press are saying it will be 11am GMT (high noon in Paris!!)Morris_Dancer said:Incidentally, after a rare event of managing to back and hedge in a developing situation, I will be bloody annoyed if Fillon doesn't stand down now.
0 -
That is the Fake News item of the year.TheScreamingEagles said:I call bull poop
https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/8368842396563578930 -
Actually, I think PB is pretty much flat on Macron. It's just that all the bets against were from HYUFD.Morris_Dancer said:Just hedged Baroin at 11 (backed at 32). Only tiny stakes, of course, but now, when things settle down, Baroin and Juppe both have hedgeable margins. Ahead by a smaller sum if Le Pen or Fillon win. Also fairly green (by my standards, I know most here bet far more than me) on Macron.
0 -
Mr. Pulpstar, I only bet what I can afford to lose.
Fortunately, although I've had some iffy bets recently, I've long since withdrawn all my initial stakes so I'm playing with winnings. Which is nice.
(Also, my main focus is F1 so I put smaller stakes on other stuff).0 -
I think if Fillon IS replaced, Macron will have a tougher time against Juppe or Baroin.rcs1000 said:
Actually, I think PB is pretty much flat on Macron. It's just that all the bets against were from HYUFD.Morris_Dancer said:Just hedged Baroin at 11 (backed at 32). Only tiny stakes, of course, but now, when things settle down, Baroin and Juppe both have hedgeable margins. Ahead by a smaller sum if Le Pen or Fillon win. Also fairly green (by my standards, I know most here bet far more than me) on Macron.
0 -
LOL! I thought it was pretty cheeky of your dad to keep bigging up his (good) 7/1 call when you were advising him at 20s!rcs1000 said:
Actually, I think PB is pretty much flat on Macron. It's just that all the bets against were from HYUFD.Morris_Dancer said:Just hedged Baroin at 11 (backed at 32). Only tiny stakes, of course, but now, when things settle down, Baroin and Juppe both have hedgeable margins. Ahead by a smaller sum if Le Pen or Fillon win. Also fairly green (by my standards, I know most here bet far more than me) on Macron.
0 -
Mr. 1000, *I'm* ahead on Macron
Wish I'd backed him earlier, but got on at 13.
Mr. Borough, hmm. I normally have my sarnies then. Do I delay, in anticipation?
Not sure it makes a difference, given if he doesn't pull out the Baroin/Juppe odds will balloon, and if he does, one of them (maybe both) plummet.
I'd forgotten the French get the time wrong.
Edited extra bit: cheers, Mr. G. I may lay Macron a little bit more. His odds (lay) have slightly lengthened, from about 2.06 to 2.3 or so.0 -
If he pulls out then the successor will be put forward quickly. At the moment my judgement is that is Baroin and not Juppe.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. 1000, *I'm* ahead on Macron
Wish I'd backed him earlier, but got on at 13.
Mr. Borough, hmm. I normally have my sarnies then. Do I delay, in anticipation?
Not sure it makes a difference, given if he doesn't pull out the Baroin/Juppe odds will balloon, and if he does, one of them (maybe both) plummet.
I'd forgotten the French get the time wrong.0 -
Pong's book.....
Fillon +1500
Sarkozy +4500
Bayrou +13250
Everyone else +-0
I think I'm only green through luck, rather than good judgment. Very high chance I walk away from this politicalbetting market with zilch...0 -
Indeed. Marriages frequently fail when people are in their mid-late 40's as its the time the children leave home and partners realise they don't actually know each other. This largely leaves one party with the house, and the other looking to rent, and not infrequently both of them short on funds having just handed their savings over to their brief!Pagan said:
Apart from the increasingly large chunk of 50 to 65's that have no choice but to pay eye watering rents.HYUFD said:
I could live with that but at least the 50 to 65s have largely paid off the mortgage and their children have left homeAlsoIndigo said:
Raise national insurance on everyone. By starting it in the 50s and 60s you are throwing away 30 years on compounding on the investments. Also the average age of the country is 40, by starting in the 50s you are dramatically reducing the pool to collect from and so increasing the amount you need to collect. 0.5% on NI all the way up would be my starting proposal, most people wouldn't even notice it.HYUFD said:
You can get an annuity for about £70 000 but yes raising National Insurance on 50 to 65s is by far the best way of paying for social care especially as everyone would have to pay it and everyone will potentially need social care whereas almost 40% now rent and do not own a property anyway so this new socialist death tax would raise next to nothing from them at allCharles said:
Annuities are a crap idea. The average person gets utterly screwed by insurance companies. And so much depends on luck - anyone forced to have taken an annuity in the last 8 years, for instance, would have their life's savings swapped for a pittance.HYUFD said:
Quite right too and millions of Tory voters and Tory members like me will agree with her. Increasing national insurance on the middle-aged and encouraging annuities is a far better way of funding social care. Hammond's 'consultation' on this will likely drop itrottenborough said:So it begins. The DM battle against any kind of death duty to pay for social care:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-4269840/SARAH-VINE-wanted-death-taxes-d-vote-communist.html#ixzz4a3ZHmhjM
0 -
It's an interesting question, isn't it? Juppe would be very good for Le Pen, and poor for Macron.BudG said:
I think if Fillon IS replaced, Macron will have a tougher time against Juppe or Baroin.rcs1000 said:
Actually, I think PB is pretty much flat on Macron. It's just that all the bets against were from HYUFD.Morris_Dancer said:Just hedged Baroin at 11 (backed at 32). Only tiny stakes, of course, but now, when things settle down, Baroin and Juppe both have hedgeable margins. Ahead by a smaller sum if Le Pen or Fillon win. Also fairly green (by my standards, I know most here bet far more than me) on Macron.
Baroin would be more mixed. I think he probably also loses out to Le Pen, but without necessarily grabbing many votes from Macron.
I think there's another dynamic at work, too. I think if it looks close between Baroin and Macron for who faces off against Le Pen, then more centrist Hamon voters vote for Macron so they have at least one (slightly) left wing candidate in the final two.
0 -
Mr. Pong, don't knock luck.
You need to knock a couple of noughts off to get to my book
Mr. Pulpstar, cheers. Probably doesn't make a difference whether I'm paying close attention then. One price will plunge, the other skyrocket, and I'll hedge whoever's odds shortened when I've finished my sarnies.
On that note, Fillon's odds have gone down a smidge. Now 9.6, t'other chaps hovering around 14.0 -
Press Gazette
NRS: The Sun moves up to become second most read UK newspaper in print and online with Mail still top on 29m a month https://t.co/xRiRfCtLe1 https://t.co/YvVsERSpTT0 -
He's not taking anything less than a hereditary peerage.TheScreamingEagles said:I call bull poop
https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/8368842396563578930 -
You mean like my 10/1 tip thread on Labour polling sub 20% at the general election?Tissue_Price said:
LOL! I thought it was pretty cheeky of your dad to keep bigging up his (good) 7/1 call when you were advising him at 20s!rcs1000 said:
Actually, I think PB is pretty much flat on Macron. It's just that all the bets against were from HYUFD.Morris_Dancer said:Just hedged Baroin at 11 (backed at 32). Only tiny stakes, of course, but now, when things settle down, Baroin and Juppe both have hedgeable margins. Ahead by a smaller sum if Le Pen or Fillon win. Also fairly green (by my standards, I know most here bet far more than me) on Macron.
0 -
JohnO didn't get a peerage I don't see why Farage should ?rcs1000 said:
He's not taking anything less than a hereditary peerage.TheScreamingEagles said:I call bull poop
https://twitter.com/BBCNews/status/8368842396563578930 -
It's not your fault if you've been trained that way.TheScreamingEagles said:
You mean like my 10/1 tip thread on Labour polling sub 20% at the general election?Tissue_Price said:
LOL! I thought it was pretty cheeky of your dad to keep bigging up his (good) 7/1 call when you were advising him at 20s!rcs1000 said:
Actually, I think PB is pretty much flat on Macron. It's just that all the bets against were from HYUFD.Morris_Dancer said:Just hedged Baroin at 11 (backed at 32). Only tiny stakes, of course, but now, when things settle down, Baroin and Juppe both have hedgeable margins. Ahead by a smaller sum if Le Pen or Fillon win. Also fairly green (by my standards, I know most here bet far more than me) on Macron.
0 -
On Topic - Mapping across
Interesting piece but it ignores 2 factors - possible changes in opinion once Brexit actually happens & the big difference in voters behaviour between taking part in VI Polls & voting in actual Elections. PB has covered the Libdem performance in Local Byelections which implies a level of support double that they recieve in The Polls.
It will be interesting to see if the Polls shift after May 5th.0 -
I'd certainly expect Macron's certainty to vote figure to rise. The question is whether people who have been in the Hamon camp until now actually switch.rcs1000 said:I think if it looks close between Baroin and Macron for who faces off against Le Pen, then more centrist Hamon voters vote for Macron so they have at least one (slightly) left wing candidate in the final two.
0 -
F1: McLaren have gotten 18 laps done so far. That's pretty much average, but given previous problems they'll probably be quite relieved.
Force India haven't done many. I think they may have reliability issues too.0 -
Here is an excellent site on Dutch opinion polls: http://www.quirksmode.org/politics/polls.html0
-
Betfair: Baroin's odds have suddenly surged to 21, Juppe's shortened a bit to around 9. No idea why.
Edited extra bit: it's bobbling around, but if you think Baroin will run then you could get 20 or even 30+.0
