politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Plebgate: This is Michael Crick’s report from last December

I guess we can have the Deputy Speaker result after this division

From the Telegraph

15.42 It is all happening quickly now. It seems a deal to reopen government and avoid default has been reached.


These are just reports at the moment. Once we hear more we will confirm it.


So it looks as if a bipartisan deal has at last been reached in the US. It will be interesting to see how far the can has been kicked this time.

I think creditors are getting seriously fed up of this childish nonsense. Osborne's efforts to get the RMB more widely traded and traded in London could prove very well timed. As a general rule there is a tax on idiocy and the US will find its rate has gone up.

DecrepitJohnL said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good afternoon, everyone.

Policemen who stitch up innocent people should be fired.

We send people to jail for Perjury. I believe that a former wife of a former cabinet minister has recently published a book about her experience of jail, gleaned following just such a conviction.

Parliament must ensure that it is the master of the police. Too many police, for too long, have escaped justice for lying. Some need to spend time inside to put a check on it.

What about shooting stray Brazilians or men carrying chair legs? Or must we wait until a firearms officer takes a pot-shot at Sir George Young?

I thought that the police should have been held to account for those incidents too, but if it takes an attack on an MP for Parliament to take such behaviour seriously then so be it. The opportunity to take action against the police should not be missed this time.

Bercow back in the Chair. Primarolo and Hoyle are there waiting

CarlottaVance said:

Michael Crick still digging on PlebGate:

"Big Q on Plebgate, why was West Mercia inquiry report watered down between July and yesterday? And who did it?"

tim?

Congress now voting on Senate proposals. Surely even the mad republicans would not dare....

OblitusSumMe said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good afternoon, everyone.

Policemen who stitch up innocent people should be fired.

We send people to jail for Perjury. I believe that a former wife of a former cabinet minister has recently published a book about her experience of jail, gleaned following just such a conviction.

Parliament must ensure that it is the master of the police. Too many police, for too long, have escaped justice for lying. Some need to spend time inside to put a check on it.

What about shooting stray Brazilians or men carrying chair legs? Or must we wait until a firearms officer takes a pot-shot at Sir George Young?

I thought that the police should have been held to account for those incidents too, but if it takes an attack on an MP for Parliament to take such behaviour seriously then so be it. The opportunity to take action against the police should not be missed this time.

Well yes, Obitus, it's simply a question of 'who's in charge - the Police or the Government?'

The Public will generally cut the Police a lot of slack and rightly so, but that doesn't give them the right to act like cowboys. Cameron has a great chance to rein them in now, if he wishes. His hand would probably have been stronger were it not for the mystery of the CCTV which Tim keeps banging on about, but the hand is very strong nevertheless.

We should all hope he plays it deftly.

@tim - love to chat but I'm off to chair the Elmbridge Cabinet. Not sure how many plebs I'll meet on the way, more concerned about all those doggers....

Er, woof?

guido tweet Laing 1st

DavidL said:

From the Telegraph

15.42 It is all happening quickly now. It seems a deal to reopen government and avoid default has been reached.


These are just reports at the moment. Once we hear more we will confirm it.


So it looks as if a bipartisan deal has at last been reached in the US. It will be interesting to see how far the can has been kicked this time.

I think creditors are getting seriously fed up of this childish nonsense. Osborne's efforts to get the RMB more widely traded and traded in London could prove very well timed. As a general rule there is a tax on idiocy and the US will find its rate has gone up.

As an American voter, I'm so relieved. Do you know that with all this shutdown nonsense, it's been OVER A WEEK since the House voted to strike down the ACA?

With all that free time on their hands, I fear for our GOP friends.

Final round

Laing 273
Binley 240

JohnO said:

@tim - love to chat but I'm off to chair the Elmbridge Cabinet.

Where are you meeting? Calais?

Neil said:

JohnO said:

@tim - love to chat but I'm off to chair the Elmbridge Cabinet.

Where are you meeting? Calais?

The Reichstag naturally.

RodCrosby said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Philip Cowley ‏@philipjcowley 2m

Top pedantry points to those pointing out that the @houseofcommons is using AV for the new #deputyspeaker not STV, as there's only one post.

I thought it was by Exhaustive Ballot. The Speaker is certainly elected that way...

It is AV.

RodCrosby said:

corporeal said:

It is AV.

Was it AV? Is that a first for the Commons? MPs voting on a ballot paper, rather than going through the lobbies?

Yes and no respectively I believe.

See here for various documents about it.

http://www.parliament.uk/business/news/2013/october/deputy-speaker-election-nominations/

OblitusSumMe said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

OblitusSumMe said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good afternoon, everyone.

Policemen who stitch up innocent people should be fired.

We send people to jail for Perjury. I believe that a former wife of a former cabinet minister has recently published a book about her experience of jail, gleaned following just such a conviction.

Parliament must ensure that it is the master of the police. Too many police, for too long, have escaped justice for lying. Some need to spend time inside to put a check on it.

What about shooting stray Brazilians or men carrying chair legs? Or must we wait until a firearms officer takes a pot-shot at Sir George Young?

I thought that the police should have been held to account for those incidents too, but if it takes an attack on an MP for Parliament to take such behaviour seriously then so be it. The opportunity to take action against the police should not be missed this time.

Well yes, Obitus, it's simply a question of 'who's in charge - the Police or the Government?'

The Public will generally cut the Police a lot of slack and rightly so, but that doesn't give them the right to act like cowboys. Cameron has a great chance to rein them in now, if he wishes. His hand would probably have been stronger were it not for the mystery of the CCTV which Tim keeps banging on about, but the hand is very strong nevertheless.

We should all hope he plays it deftly.

If I could believe that anyone was that Machiavellian, I could almost believe that Cameron decided to sacrifice Mitchell so that the police could be given the time and space to demonstrate to everyone why they can't be trusted.

LOL!

Yes, I'd like to believe that too, Obitus, but somehow.....

I've not long finished reading Rawnesley's 'The End Of The Party' and it's evident from that that The Thick Of It comes very close to the truth in revealing the way things really operate.

Of course, THAT was about a Labour administration. Things may be very different under the Coalition. [Coughs lightly.]

tim said:

all these PB Tories, how many of them ever post anything about political betting markets?

Got your shiny sovereign ready for May 2015 tim? You really think Ed is going to get more than 35% of the UK-wide vote? The Miliband-Balls economic clowns are going to get 6% more of the vote than the saviour of the world economy, Gordon Brown? On the back of the Coalition delivering 9 quarters of economic growth, saving us from double dip, massive private sector job creation, house prices nicely moving along while base interest rates are still 0.5% etc etc....

I'll be generous and let you settle now for a half sov....

Transfers from Nadine

5 to Laing, 4 to Binley, 2 to Burns, 1 to Streeter, 1 to Amess

Mail has quaint story on Mr Speaker Bercow's wife, plenty of photographs, but unclear about reasons why her taxi was stopped by the Police last night. Even more unclear is how parapazzi just happened to know about it.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2462718/Sally-Bercow-leaves-Attitude-Magazine-Awards-party-fingered-gesture.html

TheScreamingEagles said:

Yeah, I've backed Uruguay to win the world cup at 40/1 with Corals.

I know they're in a play off (but that's against Jordan, the country, not Katie Price)

But they have two of the best forwards in World football up front, and local conditions could suit them,

Decent trading bet?

Certainly far better value than England

tim said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

OblitusSumMe said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

OblitusSumMe said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Good afternoon, everyone.

Policemen who stitch up innocent people should be fired.

We send people to jail for Perjury. I believe that a former wife of a former cabinet minister has recently published a book about her experience of jail, gleaned following just such a conviction.

Parliament must ensure that it is the master of the police. Too many police, for too long, have escaped justice for lying. Some need to spend time inside to put a check on it.

What about shooting stray Brazilians or men carrying chair legs? Or must we wait until a firearms officer takes a pot-shot at Sir George Young?

I thought that the police should have been held to account for those incidents too, but if it takes an attack on an MP for Parliament to take such behaviour seriously then so be it. The opportunity to take action against the police should not be missed this time.

Well yes, Obitus, it's simply a question of 'who's in charge - the Police or the Government?'

The Public will generally cut the Police a lot of slack and rightly so, but that doesn't give them the right to act like cowboys. Cameron has a great chance to rein them in now, if he wishes. His hand would probably have been stronger were it not for the mystery of the CCTV which Tim keeps banging on about, but the hand is very strong nevertheless.

We should all hope he plays it deftly.

If I could believe that anyone was that Machiavellian, I could almost believe that Cameron decided to sacrifice Mitchell so that the police could be given the time and space to demonstrate to everyone why they can't be trusted.

Not sure the brilliant Machiavellian genius tag works for the man who couldn't get boundary changes through.

You will see. It's all part of a bigger plan to convince the Tories of the merits of STV.

Daily Mail - The art of war: Tony Blair's controversial 'Iraq selfie' stars in new exhibition at Imperial War Museum

tim said:

Revealed: The cost of living is rising faster in the UK than anywhere in Europe, with soaring food and energy bills blamed
Inflation in the UK in September was 2.7%, highest in the whole of the EU


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2463143/Revealed-The-cost-living-rising-faster-UK-Europe-soaring-food-energy-bills-blamed.html#ixzz2hu1Pztqf


Dave is lost with this stuff.

General Election ‏@UKELECTIONS2015
Yougov

Is in your leader in touch with ordinary people?

61% LAB voters say EM is
30% LD voters say NC is
20% CON voters say DC is

Even if the cost of living was faller I doubt the DC number would be much higher. It's part and parcel of being the Tory leader.

tim said:

Thatcher or Major would never have polled that low, it's 20% among Tory voters.

Ah didn't catch that. Do you have numbers for Thatcher and Major on hand for a comparison?

TOPPING said:

And, like Ricardohos (sp?) I'm not tying up either a wodge or a smidge of cash for 18 months.

That lonely £20 note lying on Ricardohos' drawer....

Gary Gibbon on C4news blog - Murkier and murkier in West Mercia

"Here’s the latest twist in the Andrew Mitchell saga. The IPCC’s Deborah Glass now says in a letter that the initial police investigation into whether Police Federation police officers had a case to answer for misconduct was watered down by the forces involved.

Deborah Glass says that the draft report she originally saw in July said there was a case of misconduct to answer and the second report sent in October said there was no case to answer. Deborah Glass says in her letter published today that she doesn’t believe that the evidence supported the case of no case to answer."

YouGov poll for Greater London:

Lab: 45%
Con: 32%
LD: 10%
UKIP: 9%

2010 election figures for Greater London:

Lab: 36.6%
Con: 34.5%
LD: 22.1%
UKIP: 1.7%
Green: 1.6%
BNP: 1.5%

Changes:

Lab: +8.4%
Con: -2.5%
LD: -12.1%
UKIP: +7.3%

http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/8255

Fitalass,

Gary Gibbon there, straying laughably off the main point of the story , which as we;ve read in countless timposts today is all about David Cameron and CCTV.

What must his audience be thinking?

Twitter
Chris Ship ‏@chrisshipitv 12m
IPCC letter on #plebgate says senior officers CHANGED FINDINGS of report which found WAS case to answer for misconduct re meeting w Mitchell

Cyclefree said:

fitalass said:

Gary Gibbon on C4news blog - Murkier and murkier in West Mercia

"Here’s the latest twist in the Andrew Mitchell saga. The IPCC’s Deborah Glass now says in a letter that the initial police investigation into whether Police Federation police officers had a case to answer for misconduct was watered down by the forces involved.

Deborah Glass says that the draft report she originally saw in July said there was a case of misconduct to answer and the second report sent in October said there was no case to answer. Deborah Glass says in her letter published today that she doesn’t believe that the evidence supported the case of no case to answer."

Oh dear, oh dear. I do hope Ms Glass kept a copy of the draft report she was originally shown.

FattyBolger said:

I waz threatened by two of West Yorkshire's finest many years ago.Told me, convincingly, to my face they would plant drugs on me unless I complied with an, to my eyes , unreasonable instruction. So of course I obeyed These people are used fo getting their way. I have never trusted the police since. If the Mitchell affair spreads doubt in the minds of people who previously assumed they could rely on ths police's word this is a good thing.

I was involved in a court case some years ago involving bullying, intimidation and lying within the prison service. The evidence against certain union officials was overwhelming and acknowledged to be so by the governor of the prison concerned. But nothing had been done. They seemed untouchable.

What we seem to be seeing here is a similar pattern of weak management and a reluctance to take on officials of the Police Federation. At least one reason why the police are being so defensive about it is that they know it and thought (quite bizarrely given the political context) that they could just make this all go away.

FattyBolger said:

I waz threatened by two of West Yorkshire's finest many years ago.Told me, convincingly, to my face they would plant drugs on me unless I complied with an, to my eyes , unreasonable instruction. So of course I obeyed These people are used fo getting their way. I have never trusted the police since. If the Mitchell affair spreads doubt in the minds of people who previously assumed they could rely on ths police's word this is a good thing.

I take it you were young and "unlikely to believed" at the time.

F1: sounds like Lotus might be on a sounder financial footing next year:
http://joesaward.wordpress.com/2013/10/16/movement-at-lotus-f1-team/

That'd be good for the sport, I think.

Andy JS But that poll also shows Boris would slash the Labour lead to 4% in London, not much change from 2010
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/vib3vot67b/YG-Archive-London-Evening-Standard-results-111013.pdf

In Australia, the former Attorney-General calls Kevin Rudd 'a bastard' and says he should quit Parliament
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-10-16/nicola-roxon-kevin-rudd-bastard-james-button-memorial-lecture/5027030

Off-topic:

The One Show have just played the Proclaimers song "(I'm going to be) 500 miles"

It goes something like:
"But I would walk 500 miles,
And I would walk 500 more,
Just to be the man who walked 1,000 miles,
To fall down at your door"

They've made a killing from this song for a couple of decades now. Well, I've got news for them: I've tried it, and it doesn't blooming well work. I walked 6,200 doors from Edinburgh through Leith, virtually passing their door, and she still blooming left me ...

:-)

tim said:

Revealed: The cost of living is rising faster in the UK than anywhere in Europe, with soaring food and energy bills blamed
Inflation in the UK in September was 2.7%, highest in the whole of the EU


Dave is lost with this stuff.

General Election ‏@UKELECTIONS2015
Yougov

Is in your leader in touch with ordinary people?

61% LAB voters say EM is
30% LD voters say NC is
20% CON voters say DC is

tim

I think it is you that is out of touch not Dave.

Consumer Price Inflation is only one factor in a family's or individual's living standards. Tax rates and benefit payments, housing costs (mortgage interest and rental rates) and income levels all impact on the amount of disposable income available.

You might like to ask yourself why household debt has been reduced and the saving ratio held at relatively high levels over the past three years. In aggregate, households may have reduced consumption expenditure as a proportion of their disposable income but their net worth has increased.

Obviously there will be differences between different social groups (e.g. between low income tenants and high income mortgage payers) but overall it is inaccurate to describe today's circumstances as a "cost of living crisis".

If you were more in touch, you would also look at the Consumer Price Index and ask yourself how much of the "higher than the rest of Europe" inflation rate is due to regulatory and administrative price rises and how much represents underlying cost inflation. The last BoE estimate I read was that the underlying rate of UK inflation was very close to the EU average (1.3 vs. (the then) 1.2%).

The fact that the government is shifting public sector 'investment' spending onto consumers through 'above inflation' administrative price rises (e.g. rail fares, domestic energy and other utility supplies, tuition fees etc.) accounts for much of the UK's above average CPI figures. It is a painful part of the downsizing of public sector funding obligations which will in the medium to longer term provide the government with additional flexibility and scope to reduce tax burdens and to target benefit expenditure more effectively.

I think I would much prefer to be the UK with the highest inflation and growth rates in Europe than Greece which is at the other end of the spectrum. Wouldn't you?

state_go_away said:

JosiasJessop said:

Off-topic:

The One Show have just played the Proclaimers song "(I'm going to be) 500 miles"

It goes something like:
"But I would walk 500 miles,
And I would walk 500 more,
Just to be the man who walked 1,000 miles,
To fall down at your door"

They've made a killing from this song for a couple of decades now. Well, I've got news for them: I've tried it, and it doesn't blooming well work. I walked 6,200 doors from Edinburgh through Leith, virtually passing their door, and she still blooming left me ...

:-)

Of course it doesn't work , the reason being its bloody obsessive behaviour . I would run a mile if somebody said they had walked a 1000 miles to see me.

How far would they have to walk for you to run 1,000 miles?

the answer is a million Josias.

state_go_away said:

the answer is a million Josias.

If someone walked a million miles to be at my door, I'd be blooming impressed. At (say) a brisk four miles an hour, that's 10,000 days, or 28 years, of continuous walking, day and night.

I'd at least have to invite them in for a kiss and fondle after that.

Perhaps after they'd showered.

AveryLP NONE of the party leaders are in touch, they all have/had fathers who were multi-millionaires, they are all married to wives who either earn more than they do or in the case of Samantha Cameron have huge family estates, Clegg is descended from Russian Aristocracy, Cameron is a distant cousin of the Queen, and Miliband is son of a leading Marxist historian, none have ever needed to worry about where the money is coming from to pay the bills or buy the food and groceries at the supermarket and none ever will. We have not had an election where all the main party leaders are so drawn from the wealthy and upper middle class since 1959 when Winchester educated Gaitskill faced Eton educated Macmillan and Eton educated Jo Grimond!

While he's out there grovelling on all fours someone here is having to Tweet for him.

The wrong kind of way to attract overseas investment?

You didn;t want to do it like that, you wanted to do it like this.....

Plebgate: David Cameron should reinstate Andrew Mitchell, minister says

David Cameron should reinstate Andrew Mitchell as Chief Whip if he is cleared following investigations into the Plebgate row, a Conservative minister has said.

Mr Mitchell met three officers and Police Federation representatives at his constituency. Their statements to the media afterwards, claiming Mr Mitchell had refused to explain what he said in Downing St that night, appeared to be contradicted by a secret recording of the encounter made by Mr Mitchell.

The Independent Police Complaints Commission yesterday ruled there was evidence those officers set out to deliberately discredit Mr Mitchell and they should face gross misconduct proceedings.

But they were initially cleared of wrongdoing by West Mercia Police, which found there was no case to answer for gross misconduct and they had merely been naïve.

Mr Clark, a cabinet minister, told BBC Radio 4's World at One: "I think most of us would be inclined to believe the evidence of police officers that would be the default position – there’s also the prospect of prosecutions going on in terms of what happened in Downing St, so it would be wrong to comment on that.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10383460/Plebgate-David-Cameron-should-reinstate-Andrew-Mitchell-minister-says.html

Your move CPS.