politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The dark cloud on Labour’s horizon: total wipeout

Dixie said:

Roger said:

Theuniondivvie said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

Roger said:

malcolmg said:

old_labour said:

Sadiq Khan today ignites the independence debate by comparing Scottish nationalism to racism.

Writing in the Record, the Labour Mayor of London insists there is no real difference between voting for a separate Scotland and “trying to divide us on the basis of background, race or religion”.

Khan also compares Nicola Sturgeon’s SNP to politicians like Donald Trump who seek to fuel division.

Nobody in Scotland will have heard of the loser.

I think you exaggerate the ignorance of the Scots

There are far more Scots in Khan's London than there are in Malcolm's Ayrshire. Khan's more in touch.

Only one of those groups of Scots has a vote in Scotland though. Khan has just called up to 50% of the latter (many of whom are past & current SLab voters) racists; excellent work, son.

I think nationalism is basically racist. The extenuating circumstance for the Scots is that England have just voted nationalist in the referendum so in effect the Scots are just saying they don't want any part of English nationalism they'd sooner go alone or back to the EU and who can blame them.

that's better, Rog. My point, badly made, is that in England, the authorities are racist against us. We just want a level playing field. You won't get a council house in London if you have a cockney accent.

My sister did; as did plenty of other people I know. The biggest problem with council housing in London is lack of stock. So many former council places are now rented out by private landlords.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/ladpolitics/status/835424788449538049

I did tip this at 10/1Tissue Price flagged it up when it was 12/1

Off topic, anyone else dreading the oscars? I deeply dislike trump, but if there's a group of people who can feel the same but still piss you off it's a room of actors up their own arses, and he will surely be brought up. It makes me think of that South Park episode 'smug alert' which took a shot at a clooney speech'.

kle4 said:

Sandpit said:

kle4 said:

Scott_P said:

Yet the defining characteristic of Mr Corbyn’s leadership is not his doctrinaire politics and unsavoury alliances with extremists and antisemites, but his remorseless incompetence. His grasp of policy is minimal and his lack of articulacy is demonstrated repeatedly in parliamentary debate.

Widely regarded as an affable duffer, Mr Corbyn lacks even that reputed public amiability. When pressed in interviews he loses his temper. His public standing and refusal to recognise fault in himself are born of vanity.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-s-plight-5tdl7fkx7

I don't know if it's vanity or something else, but he does occasionally get pissy when questioned. In fairness he is under a lot of stress, but it does seem as though his genuine personal amiability is not always evident in the public sphere, where his fuse has blown a few times.

And how do we all think that attitude is going to go during a full-blown general election campaign, when he's getting asked every day for six weeks about his support for the IRA and Hamas, and his lack of support for the monarchy and the Union Jack?

"Can we have a general election on the NHS please?!"

Labour tried 'vote for us, or the baby gets it' in Copeland.

The baby got it.

Theresa the Appeaser.....

https://twitter.com/RupertMyers/status/835425607122993152

CarlottaVance said:

kle4 said:

Sandpit said:

kle4 said:

Scott_P said:

Yet the defining characteristic of Mr Corbyn’s leadership is not his doctrinaire politics and unsavoury alliances with extremists and antisemites, but his remorseless incompetence. His grasp of policy is minimal and his lack of articulacy is demonstrated repeatedly in parliamentary debate.

Widely regarded as an affable duffer, Mr Corbyn lacks even that reputed public amiability. When pressed in interviews he loses his temper. His public standing and refusal to recognise fault in himself are born of vanity.

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/labour-s-plight-5tdl7fkx7

I don't know if it's vanity or something else, but he does occasionally get pissy when questioned. In fairness he is under a lot of stress, but it does seem as though his genuine personal amiability is not always evident in the public sphere, where his fuse has blown a few times.

And how do we all think that attitude is going to go during a full-blown general election campaign, when he's getting asked every day for six weeks about his support for the IRA and Hamas, and his lack of support for the monarchy and the Union Jack?

"Can we have a general election on the NHS please?!"

Labour tried 'vote for us, or the baby gets it' in Copeland.

The baby got it.

It's the corbyn motto: 'if at first you dont succeed, try, try, try, try, try, try, try, try, try, try again, and eventually after 30 years you'll win'

CarlottaVance said:

Theresa the Appeaser.....

https://twitter.com/RupertMyers/status/835425607122993152

People thought Cameron would be too after 2015. Not saying I see what will trip her up yet, unless she cocks up brexit, but it's amazingly hard in our system for someone to survive do long.

TheScreamingEagles said:

The only decent thing to come out of Oxford.

https://twitter.com/IAmOxfordComma/status/835069687092359168

Sometimes very necessary, but usually you can get by without it without too much difficulty.

kle4 said:

JosiasJessop said:

BannedInParis said:

rkrkrk said:

Pulpstar said:

Never forget

For all his faults, Ed Miliband achieved a net swing towards Labour at the last GE !

There's an argument to be made that he should have stuck around.
I think it's the fact that he underperformed expectations/polls that did for him...

His resignation speech is possibly one of the worst things I've had the misfortune to experience. "one more heave" "we did nothing wrong"

christ on a rocket powered bike

Labour's reaction to their own reports into their failure in 2015 was interesting. They ignored them.

In fairness I believe the republicans, mostly due to trump once the primary campaign began, did the same thing, and it worked ok for them.

Trump correctly identified that there was another path to victory that led through the mid-west, rather than pouring everything into States like Colorado and Virginia. But, he was also given generous help by the Democrats, who decided that they didn't like voters in the mid-west, and made that fact obvious.

MarqueeMark said:

rcs1000 said:

Of course, if Mrs May secures us a good deal, and the transition is smooth, then the number of bitter Remainers will decline, and the LibDems edge here will be disappear. But if the next three and a half years feature a recession (almost irrespective of the ultimate cause), then it might swing the other way.
We will see, of course, but I suspect were there an election today then the LDs would get around 12-13% of the popular vote, and would gain a few seats.

Which seats? The LibDems rising to 12-13% is more than offset by the Tories rising to 44%. So I guess we are restricted to looking at the LibDems nicking a couple off Labour?
Once Article 50 is served, the LibDems are going to look like a Flat Earth Society, denying the political reality we live in. Harking back to a time when we didn't know we lived on a globe will make the UKIP stance of harking back to the golden age of the 50's look positively modern.
The short-termism of the LibDems over Brexit is remarkable. How about some real policies instead? Something for the 2020's? When we are outside the EU...

I fear that MarqueeMark is spending too much time living in his own little blue bubble. It seems to have escaped his notice that on Thursday the Lib Dems took a seat from the Tories, almost in Mr Mark`s back yard. This is on top of the many that the Lib Dems have picked up from the Tories in Devon and Cornwall over the last few months.

The fact is that the Tories are doing lots of very unpleasant things both at county and district level - as a result of central Tory policy and their own ideology - and this is not liked.

At the same time, a lot of people voted Conservative in 2015, thinking that they were going to get lots more of that nice Mr Cameron, as he showed himself to be in the Coalition years. Instead, they have ended up with the very nasty Mrs May, whose only saving grace is that she is not Mr Corbyn.

The handful of doormats that Mr Mark helped get elected as MPs back in 2015 are far from popular.

ydoethur said:

AlastairMeeks said:

To comment directly on David's piece, I agree with much of what he says. Labour risk losing voters who prize good administration to the Tories, alienated voters to UKIP and hardcore Remainers to the Lib Dems. The cumulative effect could result in an enormous Conservative majority and very few safe Labour seats.

Even inner London is not quite as safe as it looks. Many voters here are Remainers before they are Labour and are horrified at Labour's capitulation over Brexit. They haven't left Labour yet but they are far from happy.

Would they be amenable to the Liberal Democrats if Labour continue to bungle things?

I am also considering that as there is no chance of Labour forming a government at the moment there would appear to be very little practical difference between voting Orange and voting Red.

For pretty much the whole of my political life, the Lib Dems and their predecessors have been hamstrung by having to say two things to two different audiences. Since the referendum, the Lib Dem's message has been remarkably consistent and coherent (remarkable, at least, given their difficulties with this in the past) as the voice of the 48%, while Labour's message has been all over the place as it tries to keep on board both the Remainey lecturer from Haringey and the Leavey welder from Stoke.
The Lib Dems and Conservatives are slotting very neatly into the roles of the Democrats and Republicans in America, while it is difficult now to see what Labour stands for apart from never changing the NHS in any respect whatsoever.

ThreeQuidder said:

foxinsoxuk said:

ThreeQuidder said:

Blue_rog said:

O/T. I don't know if this has been discussed already but the reports on Sky and the BBC seem a little worrying. Some news agencies have been excluded from a press briefing at the White House. Is this correct? If so, is it as black and white as that? If it is as reported then it appears as if the Trump administration is trampling over the first amendment!

It's no different from what Obama sometimes did, but - for some reason I can't explain - it's getting a ton more publicity.

Did Obama ban the BBC? I would genuinely be interested as to why and in what circumstances.

He held briefings with selected invitation lists, excluding organisations he didn't like.

All Presidents do that.

That is very different from barring selected organisations from the daily press briefing.

peter_from_putney said:

***** BETTING POST *****

In the possibly overstated after-glow of the Tories' win in Copeland, coupled with the inevitability that Corbyn's time as Labour leader is drawing albeit excruciatingly slowly towards its end, now might be a good time to consider the prospect on there being no overall majority at the next General Election, which seems all the more likely should this not take place until the designated date in May 2020.
After all, despite all the bullish talk about the Tories' prospects, right now the party is grappling with a majority barely into double figures, with at least some prospect of by-election losses over the next 3 years.
The really huge potential banana skin, apart from the economy seriously going off the rails is a complete and utter foul-up of our Brexit negotiations with the rest of the EU, which has to be a distinct possibility. Of course, were this to happen, the Tories would then be attributed with 100% of the blame, notwithstanding that a majority of Labour supporters also voted for "Leave" last year.

There is currently quite a wide discrepancy in the betting markets for there being no overall majority at the next GE (whenever that might be). Those nice folk at both Laddies and BetFred are offering 2/1, whilst Betfair' Sportsbook is much meaner with their price of just 5/4.

(Snip)

As ever, DYOR.

Aha, among the sea of self satisfied complacency, a more interesting post, albeit I'm not sure that 2-1 is quite value.

Amid all the 'lets all laugh at Labour', who are in a mess of their own making, going back to AL Blair, many people are not seeing that the good ship Tory is also potentially headed for very dangerous waters.

The day Theresa May hits the Article 50 button is peak Tory. Enjoy it chaps, for it's all downhill from there. Whatever deal emerges will create pain for one or another part of the Tory coalition, and the more acrimonious the discussions with Europe, and I think they'll get very acrimonious, the greater the pain. It'll be about the economy, stupid, and even without Brexit, many indicators say there's trouble brewing. Brexit could make a nasty cold pneumonic.

Corbyn will go, soon, and someone with a bit more credibility will replace him. Lisa Nandy could be a good choice in my view. The Lib Dems will push a message that will regain some ground in the South where it will be ever clearer they are the electoral alternative - it'll be there in the council results in May. And there are undoubtedly Tories who could get queasy about a very very hard Brexit.

May is playing poker with a pair of twos whilst everyone else around the table has picture cards. She could just pick up other matching pair, but it's long odds against.

No sugar Sherlock....

The comparison is likely to infuriate Scotland’s First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon.

The SNP leader has dispute comparisons between her party’s brand of civic nationalism and nationalism that fuelled the rise of Donald Trump and Brexit.

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/news/83674/sadiq-khan-compares-scottish-nationalism-racism

Monksfield said:

peter_from_putney said:

***** BETTING POST *****

In the possibly overstated after-glow of the Tories' win in Copeland, coupled with the inevitability that Corbyn's time as Labour leader is drawing albeit excruciatingly slowly towards its end, now might be a good time to consider the prospect on there being no overall majority at the next General Election, which seems all the more likely should this not take place until the designated date in May 2020.
After all, despite all the bullish talk about the Tories' prospects, right now the party is grappling with a majority barely into double figures, with at least some prospect of by-election losses over the next 3 years.
The really huge potential banana skin, apart from the economy seriously going off the rails is a complete and utter foul-up of our Brexit negotiations with the rest of the EU, which has to be a distinct possibility. Of course, were this to happen, the Tories would then be attributed with 100% of the blame, notwithstanding that a majority of Labour supporters also voted for "Leave" last year.

There is currently quite a wide discrepancy in the betting markets for there being no overall majority at the next GE (whenever that might be). Those nice folk at both Laddies and BetFred are offering 2/1, whilst Betfair' Sportsbook is much meaner with their price of

(Snip)

As ever, DYOR.

Aha, among the sea of self satisfied complacency, a more interesting post, albeit I'm not sure that 2-1 is quite value.

Amid all the 'lets all laugh at Labour', who are in a mess of their own making, going back to AL Blair, many people are not seeing that the good ship Tory is also potentially headed for very dangerous waters.

The day Theresa May hits the Article 50 button is peak Tory. Enjoy it chaps, for it's all downhill from there. Whatever deal emerges will create pain for one or another part of the Tory coalition, and the more acrimonious the discussions with Europe, and I think they'll get very acrimonious, the greater the pain. It'll be about the economy, stupid, and even without Brexit, many indicators say there's trouble brewing. Brexit could make a nasty cold pneumonic.

Corbyn will go, soon, and someone with a bit more credibility will replace him. Lisa Nandy could be a good choice in my view. The Lib Dems will push a message that will regain some ground in the South where it will be ever clearer they are the electoral alternative - it'll be there in the council results in May. And there are undoubtedly Tories who could get queasy about a very very hard Brexit.

May is playing poker with a pair of twos whilst everyone else around the table has picture cards. She could just pick up other matching pair, but it's long odds against.

I think you underestimate May. She's been quite deft so far, and enjoys that very important political quality, luck.

rogerh said:

We cant predict Labour wipe out without reviewing the prospects for the Conservatives.they are strong arguments for believing that we are at the peak of Con popularity.
First as time progresses on Brexit the difficulties are likely magnify with the eventual outcome appearing less favorable.
Second the huge problems confronting the health service,social care,prison service and affordable hosing have no short term silver bullets to solve them.The blame will be laid squarely at the Tories door.
Third cutbacks in council expenditure will cause increasing problems at a more local
level.The Tories hold the majority of councils and so will pick up the blame for that too.
True the overall voter reaction may not be too severe because of the weakness of the Labour opposition but it will be enough to give particularly to the Lib Dems for some major gains in the 2018 local elections.

I suspect you have a point, but imagine it would take us back to an 80s/early 90s type situation where the opposition (particularly the Libs) do well at local and by-elections but voters return to the Tories at GE time for want of a credible alternative government?

Sean_F said:

I think you underestimate May. She's been quite deft so far, and enjoys that very important political quality, luck.

Luck always, ALWAYS runs out.

Roger said:

I think I just heard a Labour person on Radio 4 say "What we should be asking ourselves is how bad it might have been if we didn't have Jeremy"

I must be dreaming.

That is the valid question though. The appeal of Jeremy Corbyn to the idealistic, the left wing and the people who just like someone who reminds them of Gandalf is at least some level of support even if it isn't enough to do much with. Andy Burnham would have been roasted to just the same degree by the tabloids - albeit with different lines of attack. Would he or anyone else really be doing any better?

Theuniondivvie said:

Sean_F said:

I think you underestimate May. She's been quite deft so far, and enjoys that very important political quality, luck.

Luck always, ALWAYS runs out.

Indeed it does, as it did for Cameron having been thought of as a lucky PM.
To be frank, Mrs May hasn't yet had to deal with any of the really tough issues, but they're coming .... down the line.

Recidivist said:

Roger said:

I think I just heard a Labour person on Radio 4 say "What we should be asking ourselves is how bad it might have been if we didn't have Jeremy"

I must be dreaming.

That is the valid question though. The appeal of Jeremy Corbyn to the idealistic, the left wing and the people who just like someone who reminds them of Gandalf is at least some level of support even if it isn't enough to do much with. Andy Burnham would have been roasted to just the same degree by the tabloids - albeit with different lines of attack. Would he or anyone else really be doing any better?

There has to be a group of people who would vote labour but corbyns incompetence prevents them, or who are put off by the left wing true believers. Is that larger than the idealistic crowd brought in who would not vote for labour regardless (some, like Corbyn himself, always will)?

For their own sake I have to believe the answer is yes.

ThomasNashe said:

kle4 said:

BigRich said:

TwistedFireStopper said:

kle4 said:

Off topic, anyone else dreading the oscars? I deeply dislike trump, but if there's a group of people who can feel the same but still piss you off it's a room of actors up their own arses, and he will surely be brought up. It makes me think of that South Park episode 'smug alert' which took a shot at a clooney speech'.

I'm with you on that. I used to quite like award shows, but now it's just a platform for whoever is on stage to show how righteous they are. Kate Perry at the Brits showing how much she hates Trump and May in front of a few thousand 13 year old screaming British schoolgirls was the ultimate example of that over used phrase , so beloved on here-virtue signalling!

Reason TV have done a brilliant spoof of this:

'It takes a lot of courage to stand up and say things that a room full of people already want to hear'

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QbagqMziKjc

I think it would be hilarious If a winner came up and said 'I voted for trump' followed by roars of boos and outrage, then said 'actually I didn't, but maybe we all need to tone it down a bit.'

The important question is will there be enough tissues to clean up the...excitement from all the anti trump speeches.

If they don't go all in, I apologise in advance.

The other aspect of this is that Trump will not be able to stop himself from responding.

So it will at least have a more entertaining aftermath.

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think I might do a thread on

'Sadiq Khan calling Scottish Nationalists racists, will Mrs Sturgeon use this as a casus belli for IndyRef2?'

Why'd that be needed, the sky is still blue after all, that's all a casus you need!

Yes, yes, I know they have others.

Monksfield said:

peter_from_putney said:

***** BETTING POST *****

In the possibly overstated after-glow of the Tories' win in Copeland, coupled with the inevitability that Corbyn's time as Labour leader is drawing albeit excruciatingly slowly towards its end, now might be a good time to consider the prospect on there being no overall majority at the next General Election,

The really huge potential banana skin, apart from the economy seriously going off the rails is a complete and utter foul-up of our Brexit negotiations with the rest of the EU, which has to be a distinct possibility. Of course, were this to happen, the Tories would then be attributed with 100% of the blame, notwithstanding that a majority of Labour supporters also voted for "Leave" last year.

There is currently quite a wide discrepancy in the betting markets for there being no overall majority at the next GE (whenever that might be). Those nice folk at both Laddies and BetFred are offering 2/1, whilst Betfair' Sportsbook is much meaner with their price of just 5/4.

(Snip)

As ever, DYOR.

Aha, among the sea of self satisfied complacency, a more interesting post, albeit I'm not sure that 2-1 is quite value.

Amid all the 'lets all laugh at Labour', who are in a mess of their own making, going back to AL Blair, many people are not seeing that the good ship Tory is also potentially headed for very dangerous waters.

The day Theresa May hits the Article 50 button is peak Tory. Enjoy it chaps, for it's all downhill from there. Whatever deal emerges will create pain for one or another part of the Tory coalition, and the more acrimonious the discussions with Europe, and I think they'll get very acrimonious, the greater the pain. It'll be about the economy, stupid, and even without Brexit, many indicators say there's trouble brewing. Brexit could make a nasty cold pneumonic.

Corbyn will go, soon, and someone with a bit more credibility will replace him. Lisa Nandy could be a good choice in my view. The Lib Dems will push a message that will regain some ground in the South where it will be ever clearer they are the electoral alternative - it'll be there in the council results in May. And there are undoubtedly Tories who could get queasy about a very very hard Brexit.

May is playing poker with a pair of twos whilst everyone else around the table has picture cards. She could just pick up other matching pair, but it's long odds against.

Given where May started from, the country's best interests, and the views of the majority of the Tories supporters in business, I find it hard to believe that her best outcome is not being pushed back towards some sort of softer Brexit with the majority of the hard nuts in her party grumbling but seeing there is no alternative. Whether she can pull this off or not will be her biggest test.

MarkHopkins said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Sean_F said:

I think you underestimate May. She's been quite deft so far, and enjoys that very important political quality, luck.

Luck always, ALWAYS runs out.

You can't run away forever,
But there's nothing wrong with getting a good head start

Or shooting the other guy in the leg before you head off to get a helping hand.

malcolmg said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Sean_F said:

I think you underestimate May. She's been quite deft so far, and enjoys that very important political quality, luck.

Luck always, ALWAYS runs out.

She has done the square root of nothing. Not a thing has been done since she came in , only fact that she is up against Labour incompetents makes her popular. If they ever get anyone less than an idiot in charge she will be toast.

I thought you liked Nicola......

malcolmg said:

CarlottaVance said:

No sugar Sherlock....

The comparison is likely to infuriate Scotland’s First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon.

The SNP leader has dispute comparisons between her party’s brand of civic nationalism and nationalism that fuelled the rise of Donald Trump and Brexit.

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/news/83674/sadiq-khan-compares-scottish-nationalism-racism

Amazing , like TGOHF , those that live elsewhere but claim to be "Scots" have nothing good to say about Scotland. Poor bitter and twisted people who ran away and shout insults from afar.

And Again you conflate 'Scots' and 'Scotland' with 'the SNP'.

No criticism allowed eh?

John_M said:

I'm not sure that Brexit has as much salience as we anoraks believe. It doesn't really engage ordinary peoples' passions. This is, of course, pure anecdota based on talking to my extended family.

We had a vote, the government is getting on with it, and now the conversation is about the NHS and social care - that's if we talk about politics at all. I would add that the Labour voters in my tribe do like Mrs May. Which is a genuine surprise. I thought they'd see Thatcher II.

It doesn't have salience because Labour are not doing their job as an effective opposition. The facts are, Brexit is the dominating political issue in Britain, and the Conservatives own Brexit now.

So how do Labour pin the blame for Brexit on the Tories without implying criticism of Labour supporters who voted for it? You go after your opponents on the consequences: "The workers of Ellesmere Port never voted for a Brexit that ships car production wholesale to France and Germany." "British farmers working night and day producing top quality meat never expected to be bankrupted by cheap chlorine washed imports", "Who wants to pay higher taxes and still see their pensions and healthcare provision reduced?" etc etc. "Why are the Conservatives doing this to us?" Now, those things are probably the inevitable consequences of the decision that voters originally made, but the Conservative Party can hardly argue that point given how invested they are in Brexit.

Relying on your opponents to muck up is a risky strategy. If Brexit is seen as a success, the Tories will reap the benefit. Given the place where Labour is, and the murkiness of Brexit generally, it's an OK risk for them to take, in my view.

CarlottaVance said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think I might do a thread on

'Sadiq Khan calling Scottish Nationalists racists, will Mrs Sturgeon use this as a casus belli for IndyRef2?'

Only if there's an 'r' in the day.....oh look - there is!

Oh, and its IndyrefNEW by the way.

Indyref2 implies there was an Indyref1, and for some unaccountable reason the SNP don't want to talk about that one....

Only unionists who cannot stop talking about the next referendum, you would think they were worried about losing.

Scotland versus Wales first up today.

Hmm. Could be good.

malcolmg said:

CarlottaVance said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think I might do a thread on

'Sadiq Khan calling Scottish Nationalists racists, will Mrs Sturgeon use this as a casus belli for IndyRef2?'

Only if there's an 'r' in the day.....oh look - there is!

Oh, and its IndyrefNEW by the way.

Indyref2 implies there was an Indyref1, and for some unaccountable reason the SNP don't want to talk about that one....

Only unionists who cannot stop talking about the next referendum, you would think they were worried about losing.

Alex Salmond sees autumn 2018 referendum

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-38949588

Quite funny in the circs.

https://twitter.com/naebD/status/835322783232114692

peter_from_putney said:

***** BETTING POST *****

In the possibly overstated after-glow of the Tories' win in Copeland, coupled with the inevitability that Corbyn's time as Labour leader is drawing albeit excruciatingly slowly towards its end, now might be a good time to consider the prospect on there being no overall majority at the next General Election, which seems all the more likely should this not take place until the designated date in May 2020.
After all, despite all the bullish talk about the Tories' prospects, right now the party is grappling with a majority barely into double figures, with at least some prospect of by-election losses over the next 3 years.
The really huge potential banana skin, apart from the economy seriously going off the rails is a complete and utter foul-up of our Brexit negotiations with the rest of the EU, which has to be a distinct possibility. Of course, were this to happen, the Tories would then be attributed with 100% of the blame, notwithstanding that a majority of Labour supporters also voted for "Leave" last year.

There is currently quite a wide discrepancy in the betting markets for there being no overall majority at the next GE (whenever that might be). Those nice folk at both Laddies and BetFred are offering 2/1, whilst Betfair' Sportsbook is much meaner with their price of just 5/4.
Unless Corbyn, or one of his cronies is still running the Labour party in three years time, I think the GE result is likely to be much closer than currently appears likely and on this basis, I've had a couple of hundred on there be no overall majority next time.

As ever, DYOR.

Agree almost entirely except are you sure Labour voters backed Leave - I thought the numbers were something like 60-70% Remain.

Fysics_Teacher said:

MarkHopkins said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Sean_F said:

I think you underestimate May. She's been quite deft so far, and enjoys that very important political quality, luck.

Luck always, ALWAYS runs out.

You can't run away forever,
But there's nothing wrong with getting a good head start

Meatloaf?

✔

malcolmg said:

CarlottaVance said:

malcolmg said:

CarlottaVance said:

No sugar Sherlock....

The comparison is likely to infuriate Scotland’s First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon.

The SNP leader has dispute comparisons between her party’s brand of civic nationalism and nationalism that fuelled the rise of Donald Trump and Brexit.

https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/news/83674/sadiq-khan-compares-scottish-nationalism-racism

Amazing , like TGOHF , those that live elsewhere but claim to be "Scots" have nothing good to say about Scotland. Poor bitter and twisted people who ran away and shout insults from afar.

And Again you conflate 'Scots' and 'Scotland' with 'the SNP'.

No criticism allowed eh?

It was only the other day you were gloating at an individuals business collapsing and them losing all their money. Pretending it is only SNP when that is not what you post is fairly obvious. Just look above "Scotland's first minister". Desperately sad.

You mean like an MSP looking forward to the closure of the Scotsman?

I pointed out that the head of the SNP's 'Business for Scotland' wasn't much of a businessman.....

OllyT said:

peter_from_putney said:

***** BETTING POST *****

In the possibly overstated after-glow of the Tories' win in Copeland, coupled with the inevitability that Corbyn's time as Labour leader is drawing albeit excruciatingly slowly towards its end, now might be a good time to consider the prospect on there being no overall majority at the next General Election, which seems all the more likely should this not take place until the designated date in May 2020.
After all, despite all the bullish talk about the Tories' prospects, right now the party is grappling with a majority barely into double figures, with at least some prospect of by-election losses over the next 3 years.
The really huge potential banana skin, apart from the economy seriously going off the rails is a complete and utter foul-up of our Brexit negotiations with the rest of the EU, which has to be a distinct possibility. Of course, were this to happen, the Tories would then be attributed with 100% of the blame, notwithstanding that a majority of Labour supporters also voted for "Leave" last year.

There is currently quite a wide discrepancy in the betting markets for there being no overall majority at the next GE (whenever that might be). Those nice folk at both Laddies and BetFred are offering 2/1, whilst Betfair' Sportsbook is much meaner with their price of just 5/4.
Unless Corbyn, or one of his cronies is still running the Labour party in three years time, I think the GE result is likely to be much closer than currently appears likely and on this basis, I've had a couple of hundred on there be no overall majority next time.

As ever, DYOR.

Agree almost entirely except are you sure Labour voters backed Leave - I thought the numbers were something like 60-70% Remain.

The problem with this bet is where the anti-government votes go. Under FPTnP (and assuming a distribution of votes along traditional lines) it is pretty much a precondition of NOM that Labour is in contention for first place (except Scotland where seats can go en masse to a non-Tory party). If Labour isn't in contention then the Tories can actually poll relatively poorly (for a winner) and still bring home a significant majority.

kle4 said:

It's the corbyn motto: 'if at first you dont succeed, try, try, try, try, try, try, try, try, try, try again, and eventually after 30 years you'll win'

By then, the ageing country may be ready for a 100-year-old Prime Minister.

OllyT said:

peter_from_putney said:

***** BETTING POST *****

In the possibly overstated after-glow of the Tories' win in Copeland, coupled with the inevitability that Corbyn's time as Labour leader is drawing albeit excruciatingly slowly towards its end, now might be a good time to consider the prospect on there being no overall majority at the next General Election, which seems all the more likely should this not take place until the designated date in May 2020.
After all, despite all the bullish talk about the Tories' prospects, right now the party is grappling with a majority barely into double figures, with at least some prospect of by-election losses over the next 3 years.
The really huge potential banana skin, apart from the economy seriously going off the rails is a complete and utter foul-up of our Brexit negotiations with the rest of the EU, which has to be a distinct possibility. Of course, were this to happen, the Tories would then be attributed with 100% of the blame, notwithstanding that a majority of Labour supporters also voted for "Leave" last year.

There is currently quite a wide discrepancy in the betting markets for there being no overall majority at the next GE (whenever that might be). Those nice folk at both Laddies and BetFred are offering 2/1, whilst Betfair' Sportsbook is much meaner with their price of just 5/4.
Unless Corbyn, or one of his cronies is still running the Labour party in three years time, I think the GE result is likely to be much closer than currently appears likely and on this basis, I've had a couple of hundred on there be no overall majority next time.

As ever, DYOR.

Agree almost entirely except are you sure Labour voters backed Leave - I thought the numbers were something like 60-70% Remain.

The truth is that no one knows exactly as there was no way of precisely judging political correlation as regards the referendum, but I remember reading only yesterday on PB.com (so it must be correct!) that most Labour voters in over 400 constituencies voted for Leave iirc.

Corbyn isn't going any time soon. Had we lost Stoke as well it may have happened but Momentum are claiming victory against UKIP as proof that Corbyn's politics triumphs "racism".

What Jezbollah are clinging on for is the McDonnell amendment to reduce the % threshhold of the PLP needed to nominate leadership contenders. If they get that I expect Corbyn to step down fairly quickly.

But they won't get it. The mob only vote in leadership elections, they do nothing else. They certainly don't show up to CLP meetings, which means that the majority of delegates to conference will be from the pre-2015 not insane wing of the party. Who will vote down the amendment.

Where we go from there is the interesting bit. Corbyn is too delusional and too surrounded by the delusional to accept reality - this is the denouement of his 34 year struggle against the Labour movement and he sees it as his duty to remove the middle and right of the party so that his Campaign Group wins out. Faced with no possibility of handing the reins over to some other ideologically pure but similarly idiotic successor he will have to go on.

And so the question of the post - where is the floor? Copeland shows that any half way marginal seat can be lost. Stoke shows than anything other than a massive majority is under threat. I expect that UKIP will fade away now - leaderless and brought into disrepute under the (what must be) brief leadership of Eddie Hitler, with their mission accomplished they will be done. The WWC who swung from Labour to UKIP will not vote, the middle ground UKIP vote goes Tory.

And the big event of course will be our crash out of the EU with no deal in 2019 and the crippling WTO tariffs demolishing industry in the lead up to the election. A lot of people don't like migration. They dislike unemployment more, and as the great economic collapse unfolds I expect the Tories to take the blame. A moderate Labour party who right now were arguing to remain in the EEA could do well but we don't have that. Calling Tim Farron - will you do another coalition...?

tlg86 said:

OllyT said:

Lib Dems playing the long game on Brexit, could well reap rewards in the long run as did their opposition to Iraq.

Did they really benefit from their opposition to Iraq? They could potentially benefit from opposing Brexit, but that will always be tempered by their role in the coalition.

Yes, Yes and No.

IanB2 said:

tlg86 said:

OllyT said:

Lib Dems playing the long game on Brexit, could well reap rewards in the long run as did their opposition to Iraq.

Did they really benefit from their opposition to Iraq? They could potentially benefit from opposing Brexit, but that will always be tempered by their role in the coalition.

There is no "always" in politics.

I mean in terms of 2020. Obviously as it fades into history, their time in government will have less of an effect on future elections.

peter_from_putney said:

OllyT said:

peter_from_putney said:

***** BETTING POST *****

In the possibly overstated after-glow of the Tories' win in Copeland, coupled with the inevitability that Corbyn's time as Labour leader is drawing albeit excruciatingly slowly towards its end, now might be a good time to consider the prospect on there being no overall majority at the next General Election, which seems all the more likely should this not take place until the designated date in May 2020.
After all, despite all the bullish talk about the Tories' prospects, right now the party is grappling with a majority barely into double figures, with at least some prospect of by-election losses over the next 3 years.
The really huge potential banana skin, apart from the economy seriously going off the rails is a complete and utter foul-up of our Brexit negotiations with the rest of the EU, which has to be a distinct possibility. Of course, were this to happen, the Tories would then be attributed with 100% of the blame, notwithstanding that a majority of Labour supporters also voted for "Leave" last year.

There is currently quite a wide discrepancy in the betting markets for there being no overall majority at the next GE (whenever that might be). Those nice folk at both Laddies and BetFred are offering 2/1, whilst Betfair' Sportsbook is much meaner with their price of just 5/4.
Unless Corbyn, or one of his cronies is still running the Labour party in three years time, I think the GE result is likely to be much closer than currently appears likely and on this basis, I've had a couple of hundred on there be no overall majority next time.

As ever, DYOR.

Agree almost entirely except are you sure Labour voters backed Leave - I thought the numbers were something like 60-70% Remain.

The truth is that no one knows exactly as there was no way of precisely judging political correlation as regards the referendum, but I remember reading only yesterday on PB.com (so it must be correct!) that most Labour voters in over 400 constituencies voted for Leave iirc.

No the majority in 400 Labour constituencies did, not the Labour voters. The evidence is pretty clear that a comfortable majority of Labour voters voted remain. Had they not done so it would not have been so close.

tlg86 said:

OllyT said:

Lib Dems playing the long game on Brexit, could well reap rewards in the long run as did their opposition to Iraq.

Did they really benefit from their opposition to Iraq? They could potentially benefit from opposing Brexit, but that will always be tempered by their role in the coalition.

The coalition ended less than two years ago but already it's ancient history, alongside Iraq and Margaret Thatcher; of relevance only to those who will never change their minds. So much has happened since.

Labour did two things to help them win in Stoke.
1) they produced are leaflet that said if Muslims don't vote Labour they will go to hell.

2) they had a leaflet draped in the St.George cross. With a caption about turning around the local economy.

I don't think this is a sustainable strategy. Hard to tell how many people were affected by the two leaflets but we know some will have been.