There are far more Scots in Khan's London than there are in Malcolm's Ayrshire. Khan's more in touch.
Only one of those groups of Scots has a vote in Scotland though. Khan has just called up to 50% of the latter (many of whom are past & current SLab voters) racists; excellent work, son.
I think nationalism is basically racist. The extenuating circumstance for the Scots is that England have just voted nationalist in the referendum so in effect the Scots are just saying they don't want any part of English nationalism they'd sooner go alone or back to the EU and who can blame them.
that's better, Rog. My point, badly made, is that in England, the authorities are racist against us. We just want a level playing field. You won't get a council house in London if you have a cockney accent.
My sister did; as did plenty of other people I know. The biggest problem with council housing in London is lack of stock. So many former council places are now rented out by private landlords.
O/T. I don't know if this has been discussed already but the reports on Sky and the BBC seem a little worrying. Some news agencies have been excluded from a press briefing at the White House. Is this correct? If so, is it as black and white as that? If it is as reported then it appears as if the Trump administration is trampling over the first amendment!
It's no different from what Obama sometimes did, but - for some reason I can't explain - it's getting a ton more publicity.
Did Obama ban the BBC? I would genuinely be interested as to why and in what circumstances.
Trump is a disaster. Corbyn in reverse, but in power too.
I've noticed this is a key rebuttal tactic: presented with evidence of Trump running roughshod over the Constitution, the response is Obama did the same, but it wasn't reported, so no one noticed.
And often the claims that 'Obama did it too' turn out to be false.
Off topic, anyone else dreading the oscars? I deeply dislike trump, but if there's a group of people who can feel the same but still piss you off it's a room of actors up their own arses, and he will surely be brought up. It makes me think of that South Park episode 'smug alert' which took a shot at a clooney speech'.
Off topic, anyone else dreading the oscars? I deeply dislike trump, but if there's a group of people who can feel the same but still piss you off it's a room of actors up their own arses, and he will surely be brought up. It makes me think of that South Park episode 'smug alert' which took a shot at a clooney speech'.
I'm hopeful my 150/1 tip of Hidden Figures is a winner.
Yet the defining characteristic of Mr Corbyn’s leadership is not his doctrinaire politics and unsavoury alliances with extremists and antisemites, but his remorseless incompetence. His grasp of policy is minimal and his lack of articulacy is demonstrated repeatedly in parliamentary debate.
Widely regarded as an affable duffer, Mr Corbyn lacks even that reputed public amiability. When pressed in interviews he loses his temper. His public standing and refusal to recognise fault in himself are born of vanity.
I don't know if it's vanity or something else, but he does occasionally get pissy when questioned. In fairness he is under a lot of stress, but it does seem as though his genuine personal amiability is not always evident in the public sphere, where his fuse has blown a few times.
And how do we all think that attitude is going to go during a full-blown general election campaign, when he's getting asked every day for six weeks about his support for the IRA and Hamas, and his lack of support for the monarchy and the Union Jack?
"Can we have a general election on the NHS please?!"
Labour tried 'vote for us, or the baby gets it' in Copeland.
Off topic, anyone else dreading the oscars? I deeply dislike trump, but if there's a group of people who can feel the same but still piss you off it's a room of actors up their own arses, and he will surely be brought up. It makes me think of that South Park episode 'smug alert' which took a shot at a clooney speech'.
I am quite looking forward to it!
The betting implications are that films that critique Trumpism by implication (Midnight for example) may well outperform.
Mr. Sandpit, tough on the mechanics, though. A second can make a difference, and it's very easy to make a mistake.
Very true. I think that the pit stops will be closer to three seconds than two this year, certainly in the early races. Combination of the new larger and heavier wheels, and more caution about releasing the car. From memory there were only 3 or 4 incidents of cars being released with three wheels in the whole of last season, although there was the funny incident at Spa of the car with a mismatched tyre, for which a penalty was given.
I think back to the work Williams in particular did last year over the winter, they shaved half a second from their stops and made very few mistakes in 2016. Last winter they had the huge advantage of being able to practice using the previous year's car - not so this winter as the 2017 cars are so different.
I reckon these mechanics practice so much they rely on something akin to muscle memory. It'll be interesting to see how much different tyres affect this: will they essentially have to retrain afresh?
The new tyres are 25% (80mm) wider at the back, and with the new wheels weigh 1.5kg more than last year's (although I can't find the weight of last year's anywhere, I'd say the 1.5kg is about 15-20%). A 405mm wide wheel and tyre, that weighs 8-10kg, is going to be somewhat more difficult to handle than last year's model.
I'd imagine the teams have mocked up some sort of a mule so they could practice over the winter, but the cars themselves have literally just been finished, and (Mercedes excepted) will all turn their wheels for the first time in Barcelona on Monday. Hamilton's car was running around Silverstone in the storm last week, as everyone else was showing static cars at exhibitions - that's what I call confident!
Yet the defining characteristic of Mr Corbyn’s leadership is not his doctrinaire politics and unsavoury alliances with extremists and antisemites, but his remorseless incompetence. His grasp of policy is minimal and his lack of articulacy is demonstrated repeatedly in parliamentary debate.
Widely regarded as an affable duffer, Mr Corbyn lacks even that reputed public amiability. When pressed in interviews he loses his temper. His public standing and refusal to recognise fault in himself are born of vanity.
I don't know if it's vanity or something else, but he does occasionally get pissy when questioned. In fairness he is under a lot of stress, but it does seem as though his genuine personal amiability is not always evident in the public sphere, where his fuse has blown a few times.
And how do we all think that attitude is going to go during a full-blown general election campaign, when he's getting asked every day for six weeks about his support for the IRA and Hamas, and his lack of support for the monarchy and the Union Jack?
"Can we have a general election on the NHS please?!"
Labour tried 'vote for us, or the baby gets it' in Copeland.
The baby got it.
It's the corbyn motto: 'if at first you dont succeed, try, try, try, try, try, try, try, try, try, try again, and eventually after 30 years you'll win'
If Peter from Putney is around, I'd be interested in a link to his tip of Marathon offering 3-1 against Macron. I can't see any politics on their website at all.
Nick - I didn't quote a price of 3/1 for Macron, but rather 3.0 DECIMAL, i.e. 2/1! Those odds are still there this morning, check them out via Oddschecker's Political section, where Marathon's odds are up there in lights!
Ah, I see, thanks - didn't think to look under "Specials". Isn't there an arb between this and Betfair's 2.66 lay on Macron?
People thought Cameron would be too after 2015. Not saying I see what will trip her up yet, unless she cocks up brexit, but it's amazingly hard in our system for someone to survive do long.
There are far more Scots in Khan's London than there are in Malcolm's Ayrshire. Khan's more in touch.
Only one of those groups of Scots has a vote in Scotland though. Khan has just called up to 50% of the latter (many of whom are past & current SLab voters) racists; excellent work, son.
I think nationalism is basically racist. The extenuating circumstance for the Scots is that England have just voted nationalist in the referendum so in effect the Scots are just saying they don't want any part of English nationalism they'd sooner go alone or back to the EU and who can blame them.
that's better, Rog. My point, badly made, is that in England, the authorities are racist against us. We just want a level playing field. You won't get a council house in London if you have a cockney accent.
My sister did; as did plenty of other people I know. The biggest problem with council housing in London is lack of stock. So many former council places are now rented out by private landlords.
The latter I agree. the biggest unintended consequence of Queen's Maggie's buy your Council house policy. you might say it is bleedin' obvious, but I think Tories are only just waking up to this.
There are a few parts of the country (I live in one), where Brexit is still actively discussed and decried every day. I suspect that in the dozen or so constituencies like that (and which mostly coincide with the LibDems best chances: SW London, Cambridge, OxWab etc.), being the only anti-Brexit party is an electoral advantage.
Of course, if Mrs May secures us a good deal, and the transition is smooth, then the number of bitter Remainers will decline, and the LibDems edge here will be disappear. But if the next three and a half years feature a recession (almost irrespective of the ultimate cause), then it might swing the other way.
We will see, of course, but I suspect were there an election today then the LDs would get around 12-13% of the popular vote, and would gain a few seats.
Which seats? The LibDems rising to 12-13% is more than offset by the Tories rising to 44%. So I guess we are restricted to looking at the LibDems nicking a couple off Labour?
Once Article 50 is served, the LibDems are going to look like a Flat Earth Society, denying the political reality we live in. Harking back to a time when we didn't know we lived on a globe will make the UKIP stance of harking back to the golden age of the 50's look positively modern.
The short-termism of the LibDems over Brexit is remarkable. How about some real policies instead? Something for the 2020's? When we are outside the EU...
Opposing BREXIT is a hiding to nothing, as you imply. But Single Market membership isn't. This is fertile ground for the LibDems but they have yet to sharpen their position on this. There is still much muddled talk about 'unfettered access' when the real question is membership or out.
Even Farron recognises this when he appealed to the EU not to keep promoting a second referendum. The problem for the lib dems is that the argument on staying in has moved on and that when negotiations commence any attempt to frustrate the negotiations will invoke fury, the same applies to labour.
I believe that the secret to success is to be flexible with all options open but that control of our borders and laws, together with the ability to negotiate worldwide trade deals are red lines
I think Libs only have to say 'we love EU' and they will pick up 20% of the vote. That's progress. Post Brexit, they build proper policies. If I were them, I would be single minded (much as I hate them!)
"David Miliband" is trending top 10 worldwide on Twitter right now. Comments are not for the faint hearted, it's fair to say that absolutely no-one on Twitter has a neutral view of the guy.
For all his faults, Ed Miliband achieved a net swing towards Labour at the last GE !
There's an argument to be made that he should have stuck around. I think it's the fact that he underperformed expectations/polls that did for him...
His resignation speech is possibly one of the worst things I've had the misfortune to experience. "one more heave" "we did nothing wrong"
christ on a rocket powered bike
Labour's reaction to their own reports into their failure in 2015 was interesting. They ignored them.
In fairness I believe the republicans, mostly due to trump once the primary campaign began, did the same thing, and it worked ok for them.
Trump correctly identified that there was another path to victory that led through the mid-west, rather than pouring everything into States like Colorado and Virginia. But, he was also given generous help by the Democrats, who decided that they didn't like voters in the mid-west, and made that fact obvious.
Those Theresa May popularity numbers keep being held in the stratosphere. Seeing her win seats like Copeland is only going to cement that with the party faithful. But I suspect that many of those for whom voting for "the Toffs" of Cameron and Osborne would have been unthinkable are now happy to see May getting on with the job and wish her well.
Rory Stewart:
I must have met a hundred people who said that they didn’t like the Tories, but liked the Prime Minister. They volunteered that she “had a very difficult job”, that they “wouldn’t like to be in her place”, that she was “working very hard”, and “doing well” (even if they added a Cumbrian “so far”). Increasingly, if I was stuck for something to say I just raised Theresa May. Somehow the Brexit vote, and her approach to it had struck a chord: people were prepared to empathise instead of criticise, and believed in her seriousness.
At her best she has something of the Angela Merkel about her. If she coud curb the temptation to ape Maggie (thankfully not too often these days) by not trying to appear resolute instead of keeping her natural humility she could stay popular even without Corbyn's help
"and ran a candidate who was a local doctor and ambulance driver" that certainly wouldn't survive even a cursory fact check... but an excellent piece by Rory.
@GillTroughton is a doctor, but ceased practising when she married and had children. She then worked for the ambulance service. It is all water under the bridge now, but why do you persist with your "alternative facts" about her?
She didnt complete her first F1 rotation, has not now or has ever had a medical license. Her LinkedIn profile claimed she "trained to be a surgeon", yes during her foundation year which she never completed. The press release after she was selected referred to her as a local doctor. Utter nonsense.
Seriously?! I backed her to win partly because she said she was a doctor! I doubt it made any difference but as GeoffM says, it's funny how I've only found out about this fake news from PB.
Of course, if Mrs May secures us a good deal, and the transition is smooth, then the number of bitter Remainers will decline, and the LibDems edge here will be disappear. But if the next three and a half years feature a recession (almost irrespective of the ultimate cause), then it might swing the other way. We will see, of course, but I suspect were there an election today then the LDs would get around 12-13% of the popular vote, and would gain a few seats.
Which seats? The LibDems rising to 12-13% is more than offset by the Tories rising to 44%. So I guess we are restricted to looking at the LibDems nicking a couple off Labour? Once Article 50 is served, the LibDems are going to look like a Flat Earth Society, denying the political reality we live in. Harking back to a time when we didn't know we lived on a globe will make the UKIP stance of harking back to the golden age of the 50's look positively modern. The short-termism of the LibDems over Brexit is remarkable. How about some real policies instead? Something for the 2020's? When we are outside the EU...
I fear that MarqueeMark is spending too much time living in his own little blue bubble. It seems to have escaped his notice that on Thursday the Lib Dems took a seat from the Tories, almost in Mr Mark`s back yard. This is on top of the many that the Lib Dems have picked up from the Tories in Devon and Cornwall over the last few months.
The fact is that the Tories are doing lots of very unpleasant things both at county and district level - as a result of central Tory policy and their own ideology - and this is not liked.
At the same time, a lot of people voted Conservative in 2015, thinking that they were going to get lots more of that nice Mr Cameron, as he showed himself to be in the Coalition years. Instead, they have ended up with the very nasty Mrs May, whose only saving grace is that she is not Mr Corbyn.
The handful of doormats that Mr Mark helped get elected as MPs back in 2015 are far from popular.
Off topic, anyone else dreading the oscars? I deeply dislike trump, but if there's a group of people who can feel the same but still piss you off it's a room of actors up their own arses, and he will surely be brought up. It makes me think of that South Park episode 'smug alert' which took a shot at a clooney speech'.
I'm hopeful my 150/1 tip of Hidden Figures is a winner.
Finally caught up with that - jolly good - though, as ever with Hollywood, licences were taken (NASA had got rid of segregated facilities well before the Mercury program - and as one of the ladies observed, even when they had them she'd ignored them)
To comment directly on David's piece, I agree with much of what he says. Labour risk losing voters who prize good administration to the Tories, alienated voters to UKIP and hardcore Remainers to the Lib Dems. The cumulative effect could result in an enormous Conservative majority and very few safe Labour seats.
Even inner London is not quite as safe as it looks. Many voters here are Remainers before they are Labour and are horrified at Labour's capitulation over Brexit. They haven't left Labour yet but they are far from happy.
Would they be amenable to the Liberal Democrats if Labour continue to bungle things?
I am also considering that as there is no chance of Labour forming a government at the moment there would appear to be very little practical difference between voting Orange and voting Red.
For pretty much the whole of my political life, the Lib Dems and their predecessors have been hamstrung by having to say two things to two different audiences. Since the referendum, the Lib Dem's message has been remarkably consistent and coherent (remarkable, at least, given their difficulties with this in the past) as the voice of the 48%, while Labour's message has been all over the place as it tries to keep on board both the Remainey lecturer from Haringey and the Leavey welder from Stoke. The Lib Dems and Conservatives are slotting very neatly into the roles of the Democrats and Republicans in America, while it is difficult now to see what Labour stands for apart from never changing the NHS in any respect whatsoever.
Only one of those groups of Scots has a vote in Scotland though. Khan has just called up to 50% of the latter (many of whom are past & current SLab voters) racists; excellent work, son.
@fatshez: If you think Sadiq Khan said Scottish nationalism is the same as racism then don't worry, you're not a racist. You're an idiot.
@fatshez: But good luck with the "we hate a Muslim mayor of London and his country for perfectly benign reasons" argument guys.
Daily Record (ostensibly a Labour and Union supporting rag) front page headline:
'London Mayor Scottish Nationalism is the same as racism'
Khan: 'There is no difference between those who try to divide us on the basis of whether we're English or Scottish and those who try to divide us on the basis of background, race or religion.'
Anyone spinning that Sadiq Khan said Scottish nationalism is not the same as racism is either a liar or an idiot; I'm generously prepared to acknowledge the possibility that they're both.
Khan for once is spot on - sticking tartan on a bigot still leaves you with a bigot.
However there are a couple of problems.
1) He's a screaming hypocrite as he schmoozed the Muslim vote with the same tactics to win the Mayoralty.
2) The reason Labour are down the toilet is that they still send out a brown person to take about racism - stuck in that check your privilege sink hole.
Off topic, anyone else dreading the oscars? I deeply dislike trump, but if there's a group of people who can feel the same but still piss you off it's a room of actors up their own arses, and he will surely be brought up. It makes me think of that South Park episode 'smug alert' which took a shot at a clooney speech'.
I'm with you on that. I used to quite like award shows, but now it's just a platform for whoever is on stage to show how righteous they are. Kate Perry at the Brits showing how much she hates Trump and May in front of a few thousand 13 year old screaming British schoolgirls was the ultimate example of that over used phrase , so beloved on here-virtue signalling!
O/T. I don't know if this has been discussed already but the reports on Sky and the BBC seem a little worrying. Some news agencies have been excluded from a press briefing at the White House. Is this correct? If so, is it as black and white as that? If it is as reported then it appears as if the Trump administration is trampling over the first amendment!
It's no different from what Obama sometimes did, but - for some reason I can't explain - it's getting a ton more publicity.
Did Obama ban the BBC? I would genuinely be interested as to why and in what circumstances.
He held briefings with selected invitation lists, excluding organisations he didn't like.
All Presidents do that.
That is very different from barring selected organisations from the daily press briefing.
If Peter from Putney is around, I'd be interested in a link to his tip of Marathon offering 3-1 against Macron. I can't see any politics on their website at all.
Nick - I didn't quote a price of 3/1 for Macron, but rather 3.0 DECIMAL, i.e. 2/1! Those odds are still there this morning, check them out via Oddschecker's Political section, where Marathon's odds are up there in lights!
Ah, I see, thanks - didn't think to look under "Specials". Isn't there an arb between this and Betfair's 2.66 lay on Macron?
Good spot Nick! According to my bead frame, Betfair's lay price of 2.66 equates to 2.75 after their commission - still there's quite a bit to be had - £171 a couple few minutes ago for anyone who can be bothered.
In the possibly overstated after-glow of the Tories' win in Copeland, coupled with the inevitability that Corbyn's time as Labour leader is drawing albeit excruciatingly slowly towards its end, now might be a good time to consider the prospect on there being no overall majority at the next General Election, which seems all the more likely should this not take place until the designated date in May 2020. After all, despite all the bullish talk about the Tories' prospects, right now the party is grappling with a majority barely into double figures, with at least some prospect of by-election losses over the next 3 years. The really huge potential banana skin, apart from the economy seriously going off the rails is a complete and utter foul-up of our Brexit negotiations with the rest of the EU, which has to be a distinct possibility. Of course, were this to happen, the Tories would then be attributed with 100% of the blame, notwithstanding that a majority of Labour supporters also voted for "Leave" last year.
There is currently quite a wide discrepancy in the betting markets for there being no overall majority at the next GE (whenever that might be). Those nice folk at both Laddies and BetFred are offering 2/1, whilst Betfair' Sportsbook is much meaner with their price of just 5/4.
(Snip)
As ever, DYOR.
Aha, among the sea of self satisfied complacency, a more interesting post, albeit I'm not sure that 2-1 is quite value.
Amid all the 'lets all laugh at Labour', who are in a mess of their own making, going back to AL Blair, many people are not seeing that the good ship Tory is also potentially headed for very dangerous waters.
The day Theresa May hits the Article 50 button is peak Tory. Enjoy it chaps, for it's all downhill from there. Whatever deal emerges will create pain for one or another part of the Tory coalition, and the more acrimonious the discussions with Europe, and I think they'll get very acrimonious, the greater the pain. It'll be about the economy, stupid, and even without Brexit, many indicators say there's trouble brewing. Brexit could make a nasty cold pneumonic.
Corbyn will go, soon, and someone with a bit more credibility will replace him. Lisa Nandy could be a good choice in my view. The Lib Dems will push a message that will regain some ground in the South where it will be ever clearer they are the electoral alternative - it'll be there in the council results in May. And there are undoubtedly Tories who could get queasy about a very very hard Brexit.
May is playing poker with a pair of twos whilst everyone else around the table has picture cards. She could just pick up other matching pair, but it's long odds against.
We cant predict Labour wipe out without reviewing the prospects for the Conservatives.they are strong arguments for believing that we are at the peak of Con popularity. First as time progresses on Brexit the difficulties are likely magnify with the eventual outcome appearing less favorable. Second the huge problems confronting the health service,social care,prison service and affordable hosing have no short term silver bullets to solve them.The blame will be laid squarely at the Tories door. Third cutbacks in council expenditure will cause increasing problems at a more local level.The Tories hold the majority of councils and so will pick up the blame for that too. True the overall voter reaction may not be too severe because of the weakness of the Labour opposition but it will be enough to give particularly to the Lib Dems for some major gains in the 2018 local elections.
The comparison is likely to infuriate Scotland’s First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon.
The SNP leader has dispute comparisons between her party’s brand of civic nationalism and nationalism that fuelled the rise of Donald Trump and Brexit.
Off topic, anyone else dreading the oscars? I deeply dislike trump, but if there's a group of people who can feel the same but still piss you off it's a room of actors up their own arses, and he will surely be brought up. It makes me think of that South Park episode 'smug alert' which took a shot at a clooney speech'.
I'm with you on that. I used to quite like award shows, but now it's just a platform for whoever is on stage to show how righteous they are. Kate Perry at the Brits showing how much she hates Trump and May in front of a few thousand 13 year old screaming British schoolgirls was the ultimate example of that over used phrase , so beloved on here-virtue signalling!
Reason TV have done a brilliant spoof of this:
'It takes a lot of courage to stand up and say things that a room full of people already want to hear'
In the possibly overstated after-glow of the Tories' win in Copeland, coupled with the inevitability that Corbyn's time as Labour leader is drawing albeit excruciatingly slowly towards its end, now might be a good time to consider the prospect on there being no overall majority at the next General Election, which seems all the more likely should this not take place until the designated date in May 2020. After all, despite all the bullish talk about the Tories' prospects, right now the party is grappling with a majority barely into double figures, with at least some prospect of by-election losses over the next 3 years. The really huge potential banana skin, apart from the economy seriously going off the rails is a complete and utter foul-up of our Brexit negotiations with the rest of the EU, which has to be a distinct possibility. Of course, were this to happen, the Tories would then be attributed with 100% of the blame, notwithstanding that a majority of Labour supporters also voted for "Leave" last year.
There is currently quite a wide discrepancy in the betting markets for there being no overall majority at the next GE (whenever that might be). Those nice folk at both Laddies and BetFred are offering 2/1, whilst Betfair' Sportsbook is much meaner with their price of
(Snip)
As ever, DYOR.
Aha, among the sea of self satisfied complacency, a more interesting post, albeit I'm not sure that 2-1 is quite value.
Amid all the 'lets all laugh at Labour', who are in a mess of their own making, going back to AL Blair, many people are not seeing that the good ship Tory is also potentially headed for very dangerous waters.
The day Theresa May hits the Article 50 button is peak Tory. Enjoy it chaps, for it's all downhill from there. Whatever deal emerges will create pain for one or another part of the Tory coalition, and the more acrimonious the discussions with Europe, and I think they'll get very acrimonious, the greater the pain. It'll be about the economy, stupid, and even without Brexit, many indicators say there's trouble brewing. Brexit could make a nasty cold pneumonic.
Corbyn will go, soon, and someone with a bit more credibility will replace him. Lisa Nandy could be a good choice in my view. The Lib Dems will push a message that will regain some ground in the South where it will be ever clearer they are the electoral alternative - it'll be there in the council results in May. And there are undoubtedly Tories who could get queasy about a very very hard Brexit.
May is playing poker with a pair of twos whilst everyone else around the table has picture cards. She could just pick up other matching pair, but it's long odds against.
I think you underestimate May. She's been quite deft so far, and enjoys that very important political quality, luck.
The Tories are on shakier ground than they currently seem, but are still in a firmer position than anyone who isn't the snp. Well see in a few years If They trip up.
We cant predict Labour wipe out without reviewing the prospects for the Conservatives.they are strong arguments for believing that we are at the peak of Con popularity. First as time progresses on Brexit the difficulties are likely magnify with the eventual outcome appearing less favorable. Second the huge problems confronting the health service,social care,prison service and affordable hosing have no short term silver bullets to solve them.The blame will be laid squarely at the Tories door. Third cutbacks in council expenditure will cause increasing problems at a more local level.The Tories hold the majority of councils and so will pick up the blame for that too. True the overall voter reaction may not be too severe because of the weakness of the Labour opposition but it will be enough to give particularly to the Lib Dems for some major gains in the 2018 local elections.
I suspect you have a point, but imagine it would take us back to an 80s/early 90s type situation where the opposition (particularly the Libs) do well at local and by-elections but voters return to the Tories at GE time for want of a credible alternative government?
Off topic, anyone else dreading the oscars? I deeply dislike trump, but if there's a group of people who can feel the same but still piss you off it's a room of actors up their own arses, and he will surely be brought up. It makes me think of that South Park episode 'smug alert' which took a shot at a clooney speech'.
I'm with you on that. I used to quite like award shows, but now it's just a platform for whoever is on stage to show how righteous they are. Kate Perry at the Brits showing how much she hates Trump and May in front of a few thousand 13 year old screaming British schoolgirls was the ultimate example of that over used phrase , so beloved on here-virtue signalling!
Reason TV have done a brilliant spoof of this:
'It takes a lot of courage to stand up and say things that a room full of people already want to hear'
I think it would be hilarious If a winner came up and said 'I voted for trump' followed by roars of boos and outrage, then said 'actually I didn't, but maybe we all need to tone it down a bit.'
The important question is will there be enough tissues to clean up the...excitement from all the anti trump speeches.
People thought Cameron would be too after 2015. Not saying I see what will trip her up yet, unless she cocks up brexit, but it's amazingly hard in our system for someone to survive do long.
Nigh on impossible I would say. 6-7 years is probably an efficient maximum, with < 5 years the optimum I would say. Of course it very much depends how much the individual puts into the job, but ultimately the stress involved takes its toll.
I think I just heard a Labour person on Radio 4 say "What we should be asking ourselves is how bad it might have been if we didn't have Jeremy"
I must be dreaming.
That is the valid question though. The appeal of Jeremy Corbyn to the idealistic, the left wing and the people who just like someone who reminds them of Gandalf is at least some level of support even if it isn't enough to do much with. Andy Burnham would have been roasted to just the same degree by the tabloids - albeit with different lines of attack. Would he or anyone else really be doing any better?
Off topic, anyone else dreading the oscars? I deeply dislike trump, but if there's a group of people who can feel the same but still piss you off it's a room of actors up their own arses, and he will surely be brought up. It makes me think of that South Park episode 'smug alert' which took a shot at a clooney speech'.
I'm with you on that. I used to quite like award shows, but now it's just a platform for whoever is on stage to show how righteous they are. Kate Perry at the Brits showing how much she hates Trump and May in front of a few thousand 13 year old screaming British schoolgirls was the ultimate example of that over used phrase , so beloved on here-virtue signalling!
Reason TV have done a brilliant spoof of this:
'It takes a lot of courage to stand up and say things that a room full of people already want to hear'
I think it would be hilarious If a winner came up and said 'I voted for trump' followed by roars of boos and outrage, then said 'actually I didn't, but maybe we all need to tone it down a bit.'
The important question is will there be enough tissues to clean up the...excitement from all the anti trump speeches.
If they don't go all in, I apologise in advance.
The other aspect of this is that Trump will not be able to stop himself from responding.
I think you underestimate May. She's been quite deft so far, and enjoys that very important political quality, luck.
Luck always, ALWAYS runs out.
Indeed it does, as it did for Cameron having been thought of as a lucky PM. To be frank, Mrs May hasn't yet had to deal with any of the really tough issues, but they're coming .... down the line.
We cant predict Labour wipe out without reviewing the prospects for the Conservatives.they are strong arguments for believing that we are at the peak of Con popularity. First as time progresses on Brexit the difficulties are likely magnify with the eventual outcome appearing less favorable. Second the huge problems confronting the health service,social care,prison service and affordable hosing have no short term silver bullets to solve them.The blame will be laid squarely at the Tories door. Third cutbacks in council expenditure will cause increasing problems at a more local level.The Tories hold the majority of councils and so will pick up the blame for that too. True the overall voter reaction may not be too severe because of the weakness of the Labour opposition but it will be enough to give particularly to the Lib Dems for some major gains in the 2018 local elections.
I suspect you have a point, but imagine it would take us back to an 80s/early 90s type situation where the opposition (particularly the Libs) do well at local and by-elections but voters return to the Tories at GE time for want of a credible alternative government?
The LDs are likely to find themselves squeezed in England as they were in 2015 - by the binary choice of a relatively sensible Conservative government, or one headed by Corbyn and propped up by the SNP.
I think I just heard a Labour person on Radio 4 say "What we should be asking ourselves is how bad it might have been if we didn't have Jeremy"
I must be dreaming.
That is the valid question though. The appeal of Jeremy Corbyn to the idealistic, the left wing and the people who just like someone who reminds them of Gandalf is at least some level of support even if it isn't enough to do much with. Andy Burnham would have been roasted to just the same degree by the tabloids - albeit with different lines of attack. Would he or anyone else really be doing any better?
There has to be a group of people who would vote labour but corbyns incompetence prevents them, or who are put off by the left wing true believers. Is that larger than the idealistic crowd brought in who would not vote for labour regardless (some, like Corbyn himself, always will)?
For their own sake I have to believe the answer is yes.
Off topic, anyone else dreading the oscars? I deeply dislike trump, but if there's a group of people who can feel the same but still piss you off it's a room of actors up their own arses, and he will surely be brought up. It makes me think of that South Park episode 'smug alert' which took a shot at a clooney speech'.
I'm with you on that. I used to quite like award shows, but now it's just a platform for whoever is on stage to show how righteous they are. Kate Perry at the Brits showing how much she hates Trump and May in front of a few thousand 13 year old screaming British schoolgirls was the ultimate example of that over used phrase , so beloved on here-virtue signalling!
Reason TV have done a brilliant spoof of this:
'It takes a lot of courage to stand up and say things that a room full of people already want to hear'
I think it would be hilarious If a winner came up and said 'I voted for trump' followed by roars of boos and outrage, then said 'actually I didn't, but maybe we all need to tone it down a bit.'
The important question is will there be enough tissues to clean up the...excitement from all the anti trump speeches.
If they don't go all in, I apologise in advance.
The other aspect of this is that Trump will not be able to stop himself from responding.
So it will at least have a more entertaining aftermath.
Khan for once is spot on - sticking tartan on a bigot still leaves you with a bigot.
However there are a couple of problems.
1) He's a screaming hypocrite as he schmoozed the Muslim vote with the same tactics to win the Mayoralty.
2) The reason Labour are down the toilet is that they still send out a brown person to take about racism - stuck in that check your privilege sink hole.
You talking about your union jack wrapped nutjobs, you are a cracker.
I think you underestimate May. She's been quite deft so far, and enjoys that very important political quality, luck.
Luck always, ALWAYS runs out.
She has done the square root of nothing. Not a thing has been done since she came in , only fact that she is up against Labour incompetents makes her popular. If they ever get anyone less than an idiot in charge she will be toast.
In the possibly overstated after-glow of the Tories' win in Copeland, coupled with the inevitability that Corbyn's time as Labour leader is drawing albeit excruciatingly slowly towards its end, now might be a good time to consider the prospect on there being no overall majority at the next General Election,
The really huge potential banana skin, apart from the economy seriously going off the rails is a complete and utter foul-up of our Brexit negotiations with the rest of the EU, which has to be a distinct possibility. Of course, were this to happen, the Tories would then be attributed with 100% of the blame, notwithstanding that a majority of Labour supporters also voted for "Leave" last year.
There is currently quite a wide discrepancy in the betting markets for there being no overall majority at the next GE (whenever that might be). Those nice folk at both Laddies and BetFred are offering 2/1, whilst Betfair' Sportsbook is much meaner with their price of just 5/4.
(Snip)
As ever, DYOR.
Aha, among the sea of self satisfied complacency, a more interesting post, albeit I'm not sure that 2-1 is quite value.
Amid all the 'lets all laugh at Labour', who are in a mess of their own making, going back to AL Blair, many people are not seeing that the good ship Tory is also potentially headed for very dangerous waters.
The day Theresa May hits the Article 50 button is peak Tory. Enjoy it chaps, for it's all downhill from there. Whatever deal emerges will create pain for one or another part of the Tory coalition, and the more acrimonious the discussions with Europe, and I think they'll get very acrimonious, the greater the pain. It'll be about the economy, stupid, and even without Brexit, many indicators say there's trouble brewing. Brexit could make a nasty cold pneumonic.
Corbyn will go, soon, and someone with a bit more credibility will replace him. Lisa Nandy could be a good choice in my view. The Lib Dems will push a message that will regain some ground in the South where it will be ever clearer they are the electoral alternative - it'll be there in the council results in May. And there are undoubtedly Tories who could get queasy about a very very hard Brexit.
May is playing poker with a pair of twos whilst everyone else around the table has picture cards. She could just pick up other matching pair, but it's long odds against.
Given where May started from, the country's best interests, and the views of the majority of the Tories supporters in business, I find it hard to believe that her best outcome is not being pushed back towards some sort of softer Brexit with the majority of the hard nuts in her party grumbling but seeing there is no alternative. Whether she can pull this off or not will be her biggest test.
Off topic, anyone else dreading the oscars? I deeply dislike trump, but if there's a group of people who can feel the same but still piss you off it's a room of actors up their own arses, and he will surely be brought up. It makes me think of that South Park episode 'smug alert' which took a shot at a clooney speech'.
They'll all have great fun and outrage in their $30000 gowns and tuxedos and then head back to their multi-million dollar houses and party on. Twas ever thus.
We cant predict Labour wipe out without reviewing the prospects for the Conservatives.they are strong arguments for believing that we are at the peak of Con popularity. First as time progresses on Brexit the difficulties are likely magnify with the eventual outcome appearing less favorable. Second the huge problems confronting the health service,social care,prison service and affordable hosing have no short term silver bullets to solve them.The blame will be laid squarely at the Tories door. Third cutbacks in council expenditure will cause increasing problems at a more local level.The Tories hold the majority of councils and so will pick up the blame for that too. True the overall voter reaction may not be too severe because of the weakness of the Labour opposition but it will be enough to give particularly to the Lib Dems for some major gains in the 2018 local elections.
I suspect you have a point, but imagine it would take us back to an 80s/early 90s type situation where the opposition (particularly the Libs) do well at local and by-elections but voters return to the Tories at GE time for want of a credible alternative government?
Traditionally the Lib Dems have done better in local and by election when there is an unpopular Tory government.The problem if that they are now not the only party benefiting from a protest vote.The other issue is that to achieve gains at a GE they need a clearer positioning in the air war and that cant be Brexit alone.
I think you underestimate May. She's been quite deft so far, and enjoys that very important political quality, luck.
Luck always, ALWAYS runs out.
She has done the square root of nothing. Not a thing has been done since she came in , only fact that she is up against Labour incompetents makes her popular. If they ever get anyone less than an idiot in charge she will be toast.
The comparison is likely to infuriate Scotland’s First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon.
The SNP leader has dispute comparisons between her party’s brand of civic nationalism and nationalism that fuelled the rise of Donald Trump and Brexit.
Amazing , like TGOHF , those that live elsewhere but claim to be "Scots" have nothing good to say about Scotland. Poor bitter and twisted people who ran away and shout insults from afar.
Of course, if Mrs May secures us a good deal, and the transition is smooth, then the number of bitter Remainers will decline, and the LibDems edge here will be disappear. But if the next three and a half years feature a recession (almost irrespective of the ultimate cause), then it might swing the other way. We will see, of course, but I suspect were there an election today then the LDs would get around 12-13% of the popular vote, and would gain a few seats.
Which seats? The LibDems rising to 12-13% is more than offset by the Tories rising to 44%. So I guess we are restricted to looking at the LibDems nicking a couple off Labour? Once Article 50 is served, the LibDems are going to look like a Flat Earth Society, denying the political reality we live in. Harking back to a time when we didn't know we lived on a globe will make the UKIP stance of harking back to the golden age of the 50's look positively modern. The short-termism of the LibDems over Brexit is remarkable. How about some real policies instead? Something for the 2020's? When we are outside the EU...
I fear that MarqueeMark is spending too much time living in his own little blue bubble. It seems to have escaped his notice that on Thursday the Lib Dems took a seat from the Tories, almost in Mr Mark`s back yard. This is on top of the many that the Lib Dems have picked up from the Tories in Devon and Cornwall over the last few months.
The fact is that the Tories are doing lots of very unpleasant things both at county and district level - as a result of central Tory policy and their own ideology - and this is not liked.
At the same time, a lot of people voted Conservative in 2015, thinking that they were going to get lots more of that nice Mr Cameron, as he showed himself to be in the Coalition years. Instead, they have ended up with the very nasty Mrs May, whose only saving grace is that she is not Mr Corbyn.
The handful of doormats that Mr Mark helped get elected as MPs back in 2015 are far from popular.
Yep - Theresa May is so toxic she stands no chance in Copela - oh... wait.
The comparison is likely to infuriate Scotland’s First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon.
The SNP leader has dispute comparisons between her party’s brand of civic nationalism and nationalism that fuelled the rise of Donald Trump and Brexit.
Amazing , like TGOHF , those that live elsewhere but claim to be "Scots" have nothing good to say about Scotland. Poor bitter and twisted people who ran away and shout insults from afar.
And Again you conflate 'Scots' and 'Scotland' with 'the SNP'.
I'm not sure that Brexit has as much salience as we anoraks believe. It doesn't really engage ordinary peoples' passions. This is, of course, pure anecdota based on talking to my extended family.
We had a vote, the government is getting on with it, and now the conversation is about the NHS and social care - that's if we talk about politics at all. I would add that the Labour voters in my tribe do like Mrs May. Which is a genuine surprise. I thought they'd see Thatcher II.
It doesn't have salience because Labour are not doing their job as an effective opposition. The facts are, Brexit is the dominating political issue in Britain, and the Conservatives own Brexit now.
So how do Labour pin the blame for Brexit on the Tories without implying criticism of Labour supporters who voted for it? You go after your opponents on the consequences: "The workers of Ellesmere Port never voted for a Brexit that ships car production wholesale to France and Germany." "British farmers working night and day producing top quality meat never expected to be bankrupted by cheap chlorine washed imports", "Who wants to pay higher taxes and still see their pensions and healthcare provision reduced?" etc etc. "Why are the Conservatives doing this to us?" Now, those things are probably the inevitable consequences of the decision that voters originally made, but the Conservative Party can hardly argue that point given how invested they are in Brexit.
Relying on your opponents to muck up is a risky strategy. If Brexit is seen as a success, the Tories will reap the benefit. Given the place where Labour is, and the murkiness of Brexit generally, it's an OK risk for them to take, in my view.
Mr. Dixie, first (excepting the Snell-Hell texts) I'd heard of it, to be honest.
Mr. M it does sound dubious, and the reporting (three days on the Nuttall story, barely a whisper of the Snell-Hell texts) a double standard.
Mr. kle4, the Film Actors Guild is noted for the restraint and humility of its membership.
Mr. Flashman (deceased), not only that, but Khan condemned Trump's ban and shortly thereafter sat down for dinner with diplomats from countries that have stricter arrangements.
I think you underestimate May. She's been quite deft so far, and enjoys that very important political quality, luck.
Luck always, ALWAYS runs out.
She has done the square root of nothing. Not a thing has been done since she came in , only fact that she is up against Labour incompetents makes her popular. If they ever get anyone less than an idiot in charge she will be toast.
There are far more Scots in Khan's London than there are in Malcolm's Ayrshire. Khan's more in touch.
Only one of those groups of Scots has a vote in Scotland though. Khan has just called up to 50% of the latter (many of whom are past & current SLab voters) racists; excellent work, son.
I think nationalism is basically racist. The extenuating circumstance for the Scots is that England have just voted nationalist in the referendum so in effect the Scots are just saying they don't want any part of English nationalism they'd sooner go alone or back to the EU and who can blame them.
that's better, Rog. My point, badly made, is that in England, the authorities are racist against us. We just want a level playing field. You won't get a council house in London if you have a cockney accent.
What utter bs.
Next time cite a study before making such a claim here. They don't discriminate based on accents. Lol
The comparison is likely to infuriate Scotland’s First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon.
The SNP leader has dispute comparisons between her party’s brand of civic nationalism and nationalism that fuelled the rise of Donald Trump and Brexit.
Amazing , like TGOHF , those that live elsewhere but claim to be "Scots" have nothing good to say about Scotland. Poor bitter and twisted people who ran away and shout insults from afar.
And Again you conflate 'Scots' and 'Scotland' with 'the SNP'.
No criticism allowed eh?
It was only the other day you were gloating at an individuals business collapsing and them losing all their money. Pretending it is only SNP when that is not what you post is fairly obvious. Just look above "Scotland's first minister". Desperately sad.
In the possibly overstated after-glow of the Tories' win in Copeland, coupled with the inevitability that Corbyn's time as Labour leader is drawing albeit excruciatingly slowly towards its end, now might be a good time to consider the prospect on there being no overall majority at the next General Election, which seems all the more likely should this not take place until the designated date in May 2020. After all, despite all the bullish talk about the Tories' prospects, right now the party is grappling with a majority barely into double figures, with at least some prospect of by-election losses over the next 3 years. The really huge potential banana skin, apart from the economy seriously going off the rails is a complete and utter foul-up of our Brexit negotiations with the rest of the EU, which has to be a distinct possibility. Of course, were this to happen, the Tories would then be attributed with 100% of the blame, notwithstanding that a majority of Labour supporters also voted for "Leave" last year.
There is currently quite a wide discrepancy in the betting markets for there being no overall majority at the next GE (whenever that might be). Those nice folk at both Laddies and BetFred are offering 2/1, whilst Betfair' Sportsbook is much meaner with their price of just 5/4. Unless Corbyn, or one of his cronies is still running the Labour party in three years time, I think the GE result is likely to be much closer than currently appears likely and on this basis, I've had a couple of hundred on there be no overall majority next time.
As ever, DYOR.
Agree almost entirely except are you sure Labour voters backed Leave - I thought the numbers were something like 60-70% Remain.
We cant predict Labour wipe out without reviewing the prospects for the Conservatives.they are strong arguments for believing that we are at the peak of Con popularity. First as time progresses on Brexit the difficulties are likely magnify with the eventual outcome appearing less favorable. Second the huge problems confronting the health service,social care,prison service and affordable hosing have no short term silver bullets to solve them.The blame will be laid squarely at the Tories door. Third cutbacks in council expenditure will cause increasing problems at a more local level.The Tories hold the majority of councils and so will pick up the blame for that too. True the overall voter reaction may not be too severe because of the weakness of the Labour opposition but it will be enough to give particularly to the Lib Dems for some major gains in the 2018 local elections.
I suspect you have a point, but imagine it would take us back to an 80s/early 90s type situation where the opposition (particularly the Libs) do well at local and by-elections but voters return to the Tories at GE time for want of a credible alternative government?
Traditionally the Lib Dems have done better in local and by election when there is an unpopular Tory government.The problem if that they are now not the only party benefiting from a protest vote.The other issue is that to achieve gains at a GE they need a clearer positioning in the air war and that cant be Brexit alone.
Well at least they start from having a reasonably settled internal view on most of the big issues of the day, as well as on prominent but more tactical stuff like LHR and HS2. Whilst Labour's strategic problems clearly arise from Brexit, it is also remarkable that there are so many other issues (the aforementioned, balancing the budget/anti-austerity, Trident, nuclear power...) where Labour is so internally conflicted that they are unable to give any straight answers.
The comparison is likely to infuriate Scotland’s First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon.
The SNP leader has dispute comparisons between her party’s brand of civic nationalism and nationalism that fuelled the rise of Donald Trump and Brexit.
Amazing , like TGOHF , those that live elsewhere but claim to be "Scots" have nothing good to say about Scotland. Poor bitter and twisted people who ran away and shout insults from afar.
And Again you conflate 'Scots' and 'Scotland' with 'the SNP'.
No criticism allowed eh?
It was only the other day you were gloating at an individuals business collapsing and them losing all their money. Pretending it is only SNP when that is not what you post is fairly obvious. Just look above "Scotland's first minister". Desperately sad.
You mean like an MSP looking forward to the closure of the Scotsman?
I pointed out that the head of the SNP's 'Business for Scotland' wasn't much of a businessman.....
She has done the square root of nothing. Not a thing has been done since she came in , only fact that she is up against Labour incompetents makes her popular. If they ever get anyone less than an idiot in charge she will be toast.
In the possibly overstated after-glow of the Tories' win in Copeland, coupled with the inevitability that Corbyn's time as Labour leader is drawing albeit excruciatingly slowly towards its end, now might be a good time to consider the prospect on there being no overall majority at the next General Election, which seems all the more likely should this not take place until the designated date in May 2020. After all, despite all the bullish talk about the Tories' prospects, right now the party is grappling with a majority barely into double figures, with at least some prospect of by-election losses over the next 3 years. The really huge potential banana skin, apart from the economy seriously going off the rails is a complete and utter foul-up of our Brexit negotiations with the rest of the EU, which has to be a distinct possibility. Of course, were this to happen, the Tories would then be attributed with 100% of the blame, notwithstanding that a majority of Labour supporters also voted for "Leave" last year.
There is currently quite a wide discrepancy in the betting markets for there being no overall majority at the next GE (whenever that might be). Those nice folk at both Laddies and BetFred are offering 2/1, whilst Betfair' Sportsbook is much meaner with their price of just 5/4. Unless Corbyn, or one of his cronies is still running the Labour party in three years time, I think the GE result is likely to be much closer than currently appears likely and on this basis, I've had a couple of hundred on there be no overall majority next time.
As ever, DYOR.
Agree almost entirely except are you sure Labour voters backed Leave - I thought the numbers were something like 60-70% Remain.
The problem with this bet is where the anti-government votes go. Under FPTnP (and assuming a distribution of votes along traditional lines) it is pretty much a precondition of NOM that Labour is in contention for first place (except Scotland where seats can go en masse to a non-Tory party). If Labour isn't in contention then the Tories can actually poll relatively poorly (for a winner) and still bring home a significant majority.
There are a few parts of the country (I live in one), where Brexit is still actively discussed and decried every day. I suspect that in the dozen or so constituencies like that (and which mostly coincide with the LibDems best chances: SW London, Cambridge, OxWab etc.), being the only anti-Brexit party is an electoral advantage.
Of course, if Mrs May secures us a good deal, and the transition is smooth, then the number of bitter Remainers will decline, and the LibDems edge here will be disappear. But if the next three and a half years feature a recession (almost irrespective of the ultimate cause), then it might swing the other way.
We will see, of course, but I suspect were there an election today then the LDs would get around 12-13% of the popular vote, and would gain a few seats.
Which seats? The LibDems rising to 12-13% is more than offset by the Tories rising to 44%. So I guess we are restricted to looking at the LibDems nicking a couple off Labour?
Once Article 50 is served, the LibDems are going to look like a Flat Earth Society, denying the political reality we live in. Harking back to a time when we didn't know we lived on a globe will make the UKIP stance of harking back to the golden age of the 50's look positively modern.
The short-termism of the LibDems over Brexit is remarkable. How about some real policies instead? Something for the 2020's? When we are outside the EU...
Lib Dems playing the long game on Brexit, could well reap rewards in the long run as did their opposition to Iraq. Also you don't abandon a long held principle of being pro-EU simply because 52% of the population didn't agree with you in a referendum.
If we crash out on WTO terms then there will by then be a party arguing for rejoining the EU , or at least joining EEA/EFTA, how successful it will be will depend on how successful Brexit is looking.
I think it is incredibly short-sighted to believe that a 52-48 vote has settled this for eternity.
It's the corbyn motto: 'if at first you dont succeed, try, try, try, try, try, try, try, try, try, try again, and eventually after 30 years you'll win'
By then, the ageing country may be ready for a 100-year-old Prime Minister.
I think you underestimate May. She's been quite deft so far, and enjoys that very important political quality, luck.
Luck always, ALWAYS runs out.
Eventually, yes.
Even when the Tories luck runs out if the electorate are faced with Jezza as the alternative PM or sticking with May then the brutal truth for Labour is that the nation will return a Conservative government.
In the possibly overstated after-glow of the Tories' win in Copeland, coupled with the inevitability that Corbyn's time as Labour leader is drawing albeit excruciatingly slowly towards its end, now might be a good time to consider the prospect on there being no overall majority at the next General Election, which seems all the more likely should this not take place until the designated date in May 2020. After all, despite all the bullish talk about the Tories' prospects, right now the party is grappling with a majority barely into double figures, with at least some prospect of by-election losses over the next 3 years. The really huge potential banana skin, apart from the economy seriously going off the rails is a complete and utter foul-up of our Brexit negotiations with the rest of the EU, which has to be a distinct possibility. Of course, were this to happen, the Tories would then be attributed with 100% of the blame, notwithstanding that a majority of Labour supporters also voted for "Leave" last year.
There is currently quite a wide discrepancy in the betting markets for there being no overall majority at the next GE (whenever that might be). Those nice folk at both Laddies and BetFred are offering 2/1, whilst Betfair' Sportsbook is much meaner with their price of just 5/4. Unless Corbyn, or one of his cronies is still running the Labour party in three years time, I think the GE result is likely to be much closer than currently appears likely and on this basis, I've had a couple of hundred on there be no overall majority next time.
As ever, DYOR.
Agree almost entirely except are you sure Labour voters backed Leave - I thought the numbers were something like 60-70% Remain.
The truth is that no one knows exactly as there was no way of precisely judging political correlation as regards the referendum, but I remember reading only yesterday on PB.com (so it must be correct!) that most Labour voters in over 400 constituencies voted for Leave iirc.
O/T. I don't know if this has been discussed already but the reports on Sky and the BBC seem a little worrying. Some news agencies have been excluded from a press briefing at the White House. Is this correct? If so, is it as black and white as that? If it is as reported then it appears as if the Trump administration is trampling over the first amendment!
It's no different from what Obama sometimes did, but - for some reason I can't explain - it's getting a ton more publicity.
Did Obama ban the BBC? I would genuinely be interested as to why and in what circumstances.
Trump is a disaster. Corbyn in reverse, but in power too.
I've noticed this is a key rebuttal tactic: presented with evidence of Trump running roughshod over the Constitution, the response is Obama did the same, but it wasn't reported, so no one noticed.
And often the claims that 'Obama did it too' turn out to be false.
Corbyn isn't going any time soon. Had we lost Stoke as well it may have happened but Momentum are claiming victory against UKIP as proof that Corbyn's politics triumphs "racism".
What Jezbollah are clinging on for is the McDonnell amendment to reduce the % threshhold of the PLP needed to nominate leadership contenders. If they get that I expect Corbyn to step down fairly quickly.
But they won't get it. The mob only vote in leadership elections, they do nothing else. They certainly don't show up to CLP meetings, which means that the majority of delegates to conference will be from the pre-2015 not insane wing of the party. Who will vote down the amendment.
Where we go from there is the interesting bit. Corbyn is too delusional and too surrounded by the delusional to accept reality - this is the denouement of his 34 year struggle against the Labour movement and he sees it as his duty to remove the middle and right of the party so that his Campaign Group wins out. Faced with no possibility of handing the reins over to some other ideologically pure but similarly idiotic successor he will have to go on.
And so the question of the post - where is the floor? Copeland shows that any half way marginal seat can be lost. Stoke shows than anything other than a massive majority is under threat. I expect that UKIP will fade away now - leaderless and brought into disrepute under the (what must be) brief leadership of Eddie Hitler, with their mission accomplished they will be done. The WWC who swung from Labour to UKIP will not vote, the middle ground UKIP vote goes Tory.
And the big event of course will be our crash out of the EU with no deal in 2019 and the crippling WTO tariffs demolishing industry in the lead up to the election. A lot of people don't like migration. They dislike unemployment more, and as the great economic collapse unfolds I expect the Tories to take the blame. A moderate Labour party who right now were arguing to remain in the EEA could do well but we don't have that. Calling Tim Farron - will you do another coalition...?
Lib Dems playing the long game on Brexit, could well reap rewards in the long run as did their opposition to Iraq.
Did they really benefit from their opposition to Iraq? They could potentially benefit from opposing Brexit, but that will always be tempered by their role in the coalition.
O/T. I don't know if this has been discussed already but the reports on Sky and the BBC seem a little worrying. Some news agencies have been excluded from a press briefing at the White House. Is this correct? If so, is it as black and white as that? If it is as reported then it appears as if the Trump administration is trampling over the first amendment!
It's no different from what Obama sometimes did, but - for some reason I can't explain - it's getting a ton more publicity.
Did Obama ban the BBC? I would genuinely be interested as to why and in what circumstances.
He held briefings with selected invitation lists, excluding organisations he didn't like.
All Presidents do that.
That is very different from barring selected organisations from the daily press briefing.
Lib Dems playing the long game on Brexit, could well reap rewards in the long run as did their opposition to Iraq.
Did they really benefit from their opposition to Iraq? They could potentially benefit from opposing Brexit, but that will always be tempered by their role in the coalition.
Lib Dems playing the long game on Brexit, could well reap rewards in the long run as did their opposition to Iraq.
Did they really benefit from their opposition to Iraq? They could potentially benefit from opposing Brexit, but that will always be tempered by their role in the coalition.
In the possibly overstated after-glow of the Tories' win in Copeland, coupled with the inevitability that Corbyn's time as Labour leader is drawing albeit excruciatingly slowly towards its end, now might be a good time to consider the prospect on there being no overall majority at the next General Election, which seems all the more likely should this not take place until the designated date in May 2020. After all, despite all the bullish talk about the Tories' prospects, right now the party is grappling with a majority barely into double figures, with at least some prospect of by-election losses over the next 3 years. The really huge potential banana skin, apart from the economy seriously going off the rails is a complete and utter foul-up of our Brexit negotiations with the rest of the EU, which has to be a distinct possibility. Of course, were this to happen, the Tories would then be attributed with 100% of the blame, notwithstanding that a majority of Labour supporters also voted for "Leave" last year.
There is currently quite a wide discrepancy in the betting markets for there being no overall majority at the next GE (whenever that might be). Those nice folk at both Laddies and BetFred are offering 2/1, whilst Betfair' Sportsbook is much meaner with their price of just 5/4. Unless Corbyn, or one of his cronies is still running the Labour party in three years time, I think the GE result is likely to be much closer than currently appears likely and on this basis, I've had a couple of hundred on there be no overall majority next time.
As ever, DYOR.
Agree almost entirely except are you sure Labour voters backed Leave - I thought the numbers were something like 60-70% Remain.
The truth is that no one knows exactly as there was no way of precisely judging political correlation as regards the referendum, but I remember reading only yesterday on PB.com (so it must be correct!) that most Labour voters in over 400 constituencies voted for Leave iirc.
Intuitively could we have had a 52-48 result if majorities of the Tories, Labour and UKIP all voted Leave?
Lib Dems playing the long game on Brexit, could well reap rewards in the long run as did their opposition to Iraq.
Did they really benefit from their opposition to Iraq? They could potentially benefit from opposing Brexit, but that will always be tempered by their role in the coalition.
There is no "always" in politics.
I mean in terms of 2020. Obviously as it fades into history, their time in government will have less of an effect on future elections.
O/T. I don't know if this has been discussed already but the reports on Sky and the BBC seem a little worrying. Some news agencies have been excluded from a press briefing at the White House. Is this correct? If so, is it as black and white as that? If it is as reported then it appears as if the Trump administration is trampling over the first amendment!
It's no different from what Obama sometimes did, but - for some reason I can't explain - it's getting a ton more publicity.
Did Obama ban the BBC? I would genuinely be interested as to why and in what circumstances.
Trump is a disaster. Corbyn in reverse, but in power too.
I've noticed this is a key rebuttal tactic: presented with evidence of Trump running roughshod over the Constitution, the response is Obama did the same, but it wasn't reported, so no one noticed.
And often the claims that 'Obama did it too' turn out to be false.
Selectively inviting news outlets and excluding those the president doesn't like? What's the difference?
What I think happened with Fox and Obama is that the Treasury asked for requests to interview Obama and as Fox didn't ask for one they weren't invited. However they should have been invited as part of a pooling arrangement with other network broadcasters who were covering the event. When the White House Press Office found out about it, they arranged the invite.
That seems quite different from Trump's explicit ban.
In the possibly overstated after-glow of the Tories' win in Copeland, coupled with the inevitability that Corbyn's time as Labour leader is drawing albeit excruciatingly slowly towards its end, now might be a good time to consider the prospect on there being no overall majority at the next General Election, which seems all the more likely should this not take place until the designated date in May 2020. After all, despite all the bullish talk about the Tories' prospects, right now the party is grappling with a majority barely into double figures, with at least some prospect of by-election losses over the next 3 years. The really huge potential banana skin, apart from the economy seriously going off the rails is a complete and utter foul-up of our Brexit negotiations with the rest of the EU, which has to be a distinct possibility. Of course, were this to happen, the Tories would then be attributed with 100% of the blame, notwithstanding that a majority of Labour supporters also voted for "Leave" last year.
There is currently quite a wide discrepancy in the betting markets for there being no overall majority at the next GE (whenever that might be). Those nice folk at both Laddies and BetFred are offering 2/1, whilst Betfair' Sportsbook is much meaner with their price of just 5/4. Unless Corbyn, or one of his cronies is still running the Labour party in three years time, I think the GE result is likely to be much closer than currently appears likely and on this basis, I've had a couple of hundred on there be no overall majority next time.
As ever, DYOR.
Agree almost entirely except are you sure Labour voters backed Leave - I thought the numbers were something like 60-70% Remain.
The truth is that no one knows exactly as there was no way of precisely judging political correlation as regards the referendum, but I remember reading only yesterday on PB.com (so it must be correct!) that most Labour voters in over 400 constituencies voted for Leave iirc.
No the majority in 400 Labour constituencies did, not the Labour voters. The evidence is pretty clear that a comfortable majority of Labour voters voted remain. Had they not done so it would not have been so close.
I think you underestimate May. She's been quite deft so far, and enjoys that very important political quality, luck.
Luck always, ALWAYS runs out.
She has done the square root of nothing. Not a thing has been done since she came in , only fact that she is up against Labour incompetents makes her popular. If they ever get anyone less than an idiot in charge she will be toast.
Where possible, doing nothing is the best thing a government can do.
Where doing nothing is not possible, a government is best doing as little as possible.
Lib Dems playing the long game on Brexit, could well reap rewards in the long run as did their opposition to Iraq.
Did they really benefit from their opposition to Iraq? They could potentially benefit from opposing Brexit, but that will always be tempered by their role in the coalition.
The coalition ended less than two years ago but already it's ancient history, alongside Iraq and Margaret Thatcher; of relevance only to those who will never change their minds. So much has happened since.
On topic, two other spectral presences, this time from overseas, may stalk Labour:
- the Canadian Progressive Conservatives in 1993, when they went from 169 seats in the 1988 election, to 2. The Canadian electoral system is, I understand, also FPTP, and the PCs were hit by a combination of factors which sound eerily familiar: chronic unpopularity of the party and its leader, the emergence of alternative parties competing for the same voter base, and the opposition Liberals having a more popoular leader. - the French Socialists, also in 1993, when they lost 207 of their 260 seats in the National Assembly elections. The parallels here are less obvious - the leader of the Socialists was hit by a corruption scandal, and as a governing party they suffered from a recession. The Greens made inroads into the Socalist vote, but only won a couple of seats.
Both these examples were governing parties, so they are not a perfect fit for Jeremy Corbyn's Labour, but then of course precedents are rarely perfect, especially in politics.
Comments
I did tip this at 10/1Tissue Price flagged it up when it was 12/1
Roger's Oscars piece is going up this afternoon.
The baby got it.
The betting implications are that films that critique Trumpism by implication (Midnight for example) may well outperform.
https://twitter.com/RupertMyers/status/835425607122993152
I'd imagine the teams have mocked up some sort of a mule so they could practice over the winter, but the cars themselves have literally just been finished, and (Mercedes excepted) will all turn their wheels for the first time in Barcelona on Monday. Hamilton's car was running around Silverstone in the storm last week, as everyone else was showing static cars at exhibitions - that's what I call confident!
I like Jezza. he's a proper socialist. He's what Labour members want. I believe in democracy.
https://twitter.com/IAmOxfordComma/status/835069687092359168
https://twitter.com/search?q="David Miliband"&src=tren
The fact is that the Tories are doing lots of very unpleasant things both at county and district level - as a result of central Tory policy and their own ideology - and this is not liked.
At the same time, a lot of people voted Conservative in 2015, thinking that they were going to get lots more of that nice Mr Cameron, as he showed himself to be in the Coalition years. Instead, they have ended up with the very nasty Mrs May, whose only saving grace is that she is not Mr Corbyn.
The handful of doormats that Mr Mark helped get elected as MPs back in 2015 are far from popular.
The Lib Dems and Conservatives are slotting very neatly into the roles of the Democrats and Republicans in America, while it is difficult now to see what Labour stands for apart from never changing the NHS in any respect whatsoever.
'London Mayor
Scottish Nationalism is the same as racism'
Khan:
'There is no difference between those who try to divide us on the basis of whether we're English or Scottish and those who try to divide us on the basis of background, race or religion.'
Anyone spinning that Sadiq Khan said Scottish nationalism is not the same as racism is either a liar or an idiot; I'm generously prepared to acknowledge the possibility that they're both.
However there are a couple of problems.
1) He's a screaming hypocrite as he schmoozed the Muslim vote with the same tactics to win the Mayoralty.
2) The reason Labour are down the toilet is that they still send out a brown person to take about racism - stuck in that check your privilege sink hole.
That is very different from barring selected organisations from the daily press briefing.
Amid all the 'lets all laugh at Labour', who are in a mess of their own making, going back to AL Blair, many people are not seeing that the good ship Tory is also potentially headed for very dangerous waters.
The day Theresa May hits the Article 50 button is peak Tory. Enjoy it chaps, for it's all downhill from there. Whatever deal emerges will create pain for one or another part of the Tory coalition, and the more acrimonious the discussions with Europe, and I think they'll get very acrimonious, the greater the pain. It'll be about the economy, stupid, and even without Brexit, many indicators say there's trouble brewing. Brexit could make a nasty cold pneumonic.
Corbyn will go, soon, and someone with a bit more credibility will replace him. Lisa Nandy could be a good choice in my view. The Lib Dems will push a message that will regain some ground in the South where it will be ever clearer they are the electoral alternative - it'll be there in the council results in May. And there are undoubtedly Tories who could get queasy about a very very hard Brexit.
May is playing poker with a pair of twos whilst everyone else around the table has picture cards. She could just pick up other matching pair, but it's long odds against.
First as time progresses on Brexit the difficulties are likely magnify with the eventual outcome appearing less favorable.
Second the huge problems confronting the health service,social care,prison service and affordable hosing have no short term silver bullets to solve them.The blame will be laid squarely at the Tories door.
Third cutbacks in council expenditure will cause increasing problems at a more local
level.The Tories hold the majority of councils and so will pick up the blame for that too.
True the overall voter reaction may not be too severe because of the weakness of the Labour opposition but it will be enough to give particularly to the Lib Dems for some major gains in the 2018 local elections.
The comparison is likely to infuriate Scotland’s First Minister, Nicola Sturgeon.
The SNP leader has dispute comparisons between her party’s brand of civic nationalism and nationalism that fuelled the rise of Donald Trump and Brexit.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/news/83674/sadiq-khan-compares-scottish-nationalism-racism
'It takes a lot of courage to stand up and say things that a room full of people already want to hear'
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QbagqMziKjc
The important question is will there be enough tissues to clean up the...excitement from all the anti trump speeches.
If they don't go all in, I apologise in advance.
To be frank, Mrs May hasn't yet had to deal with any of the really tough issues, but they're coming .... down the line.
For their own sake I have to believe the answer is yes.
'Sadiq Khan calling Scottish Nationalists racists, will Mrs Sturgeon use this as a casus belli for IndyRef2?'
Yes, yes, I know they have others.
You can't run away forever,
But there's nothing wrong with getting a good head start
Oh, and its IndyrefNEW by the way.
Indyref2 implies there was an Indyref1, and for some unaccountable reason the SNP don't want to talk about that one....
No criticism allowed eh?
So how do Labour pin the blame for Brexit on the Tories without implying criticism of Labour supporters who voted for it? You go after your opponents on the consequences: "The workers of Ellesmere Port never voted for a Brexit that ships car production wholesale to France and Germany." "British farmers working night and day producing top quality meat never expected to be bankrupted by cheap chlorine washed imports", "Who wants to pay higher taxes and still see their pensions and healthcare provision reduced?" etc etc. "Why are the Conservatives doing this to us?" Now, those things are probably the inevitable consequences of the decision that voters originally made, but the Conservative Party can hardly argue that point given how invested they are in Brexit.
Relying on your opponents to muck up is a risky strategy. If Brexit is seen as a success, the Tories will reap the benefit. Given the place where Labour is, and the murkiness of Brexit generally, it's an OK risk for them to take, in my view.
Mr. M it does sound dubious, and the reporting (three days on the Nuttall story, barely a whisper of the Snell-Hell texts) a double standard.
Mr. kle4, the Film Actors Guild is noted for the restraint and humility of its membership.
Mr. Flashman (deceased), not only that, but Khan condemned Trump's ban and shortly thereafter sat down for dinner with diplomats from countries that have stricter arrangements.
Hmm. Could be good.
Next time cite a study before making such a claim here. They don't discriminate based on accents. Lol
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-38949588
https://twitter.com/naebD/status/835322783232114692
I pointed out that the head of the SNP's 'Business for Scotland' wasn't much of a businessman.....
Touché!
EDIT: No-one at all in recent political history has done inactivity more masterfully than the SNP!
Lib Dems playing the long game on Brexit, could well reap rewards in the long run as did their opposition to Iraq. Also you don't abandon a long held principle of being pro-EU simply because 52% of the population didn't agree with you in a referendum.
If we crash out on WTO terms then there will by then be a party arguing for rejoining the EU , or at least joining EEA/EFTA, how successful it will be will depend on how successful Brexit is looking.
I think it is incredibly short-sighted to believe that a 52-48 vote has settled this for eternity.
What Jezbollah are clinging on for is the McDonnell amendment to reduce the % threshhold of the PLP needed to nominate leadership contenders. If they get that I expect Corbyn to step down fairly quickly.
But they won't get it. The mob only vote in leadership elections, they do nothing else. They certainly don't show up to CLP meetings, which means that the majority of delegates to conference will be from the pre-2015 not insane wing of the party. Who will vote down the amendment.
Where we go from there is the interesting bit. Corbyn is too delusional and too surrounded by the delusional to accept reality - this is the denouement of his 34 year struggle against the Labour movement and he sees it as his duty to remove the middle and right of the party so that his Campaign Group wins out. Faced with no possibility of handing the reins over to some other ideologically pure but similarly idiotic successor he will have to go on.
And so the question of the post - where is the floor? Copeland shows that any half way marginal seat can be lost. Stoke shows than anything other than a massive majority is under threat. I expect that UKIP will fade away now - leaderless and brought into disrepute under the (what must be) brief leadership of Eddie Hitler, with their mission accomplished they will be done. The WWC who swung from Labour to UKIP will not vote, the middle ground UKIP vote goes Tory.
And the big event of course will be our crash out of the EU with no deal in 2019 and the crippling WTO tariffs demolishing industry in the lead up to the election. A lot of people don't like migration. They dislike unemployment more, and as the great economic collapse unfolds I expect the Tories to take the blame. A moderate Labour party who right now were arguing to remain in the EEA could do well but we don't have that. Calling Tim Farron - will you do another coalition...?
That seems quite different from Trump's explicit ban.
http://www.mediaite.com/columnists/foxs-white-house-bans-fox-news-story-completely-unravels/
Where doing nothing is not possible, a government is best doing as little as possible.
- the Canadian Progressive Conservatives in 1993, when they went from 169 seats in the 1988 election, to 2. The Canadian electoral system is, I understand, also FPTP, and the PCs were hit by a combination of factors which sound eerily familiar: chronic unpopularity of the party and its leader, the emergence of alternative parties competing for the same voter base, and the opposition Liberals having a more popoular leader.
- the French Socialists, also in 1993, when they lost 207 of their 260 seats in the National Assembly elections. The parallels here are less obvious - the leader of the Socialists was hit by a corruption scandal, and as a governing party they suffered from a recession. The Greens made inroads into the Socalist vote, but only won a couple of seats.
Both these examples were governing parties, so they are not a perfect fit for Jeremy Corbyn's Labour, but then of course precedents are rarely perfect, especially in politics.
1) they produced are leaflet that said if Muslims don't vote Labour they will go to hell.
2) they had a leaflet draped in the St.George cross. With a caption about turning around the local economy.
I don't think this is a sustainable strategy. Hard to tell how many people were affected by the two leaflets but we know some will have been.