politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » During February the Tories have defended NINE local by-electio

Is is true more people voted in Copeland than in those nine defences?

SeanT said:

Who gives a nanofuck

That how you fit so many in ?
:-)

You missed an "innocent face", OGH

https://twitter.com/peterhamby/status/835150821411143682

Off Topic
***** BETTING POST *****

Francois Fillon looks like dead meat politically on the back of this latest news story from The Daily Telegraph:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/24/marine-le-pen-refuses-quizzed-french-investigators-fake-jobs/

Time perhaps to pile onto Emmanuel Macron, where those nice folk at Marathon have stand-out odds of 3.0, compared with the likes of PP who offer only 2.375 ..... these odds can't last.

As ever DYOR.

Trump has banned the BBC from briefings.

no cares about local by elections where there is more tumbleweed then people.

The copeland by election shows tories being underestimated again.

peter_from_putney said:

Off Topic
***** BETTING POST *****

Francois Fillon looks like dead meat politically on the back of this latest news story from The Daily Telegraph:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/24/marine-le-pen-refuses-quizzed-french-investigators-fake-jobs/

Time perhaps to pile onto Emmanuel Macron, where those nice folk at Marathon have stand-out odds of 3.0, compared with the likes of PP who offer only 2.375 ..... these odds can't last.

As ever DYOR.

Yes, does not look good for him, particularly as he slipped another point behind Macron in ifop's latest daily rolling poll this afternoon. Now 3 points behind Macron and this news will not help.

SimonStClare said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/peterhamby/status/835150821411143682

The chap handing out the flags is Ryan Clayton, he’s head of ‘Americans Take Action’, a left-wing activist group. When discovered, Clayton was thrown out of the CPAC meeting.

Great bit of trolling!

dr_spyn said:

Given public's disdain for Tim Who is he Farron, the LDs appear to be picking up votes in local elections.

1. Mostly very low turnout, put out the bins elections that most voters don't care about
2. Lib Dems love winning and are good at targetting favourable wards, bringing in activists and turning their vote out
3. Lib Dem successes in tiny local by-elections offer no useful indicator of what will happen in Parliamentary elections, which is what Tory supporters are really interested in
4. Current VI poling numbers point to Conservative landslide, LDs may make ten gains if they do really well

Expect a new bout of backing David Miliband for next Labour leader:

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/835242015906484224

I'm sure I'm not the only pber who stands ready nobly to lay those bets on Betfair.

Paging @alastairmeeks @pulpstar @tissue_price and everyone else with a big red on David Miliband as next Labour leader

https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/835243383950045188

AlastairMeeks said:

Expect a new bout of backing David Miliband for next Labour leader:

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/835242015906484224

I'm sure I'm not the only pber who stands ready nobly to lay those bets on Betfair.

Any idea which Milband?

AlastairMeeks said:

Expect a new bout of backing David Miliband for next Labour leader:

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/835242015906484224

I'm sure I'm not the only pber who stands ready nobly to lay those bets on Betfair.

I suspect we all have DMill as a horrible result for next Labour leader. I am entirely baffled that anyone wants to back him.

I wonder if David Miliband fancies being the Labour MP for Liverpool Walton.

peter_from_putney said:

BudG said:

peter_from_putney said:

Off Topic
***** BETTING POST *****

Francois Fillon looks like dead meat politically on the back of this latest news story from The Daily Telegraph:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/02/24/marine-le-pen-refuses-quizzed-french-investigators-fake-jobs/

Time perhaps to pile onto Emmanuel Macron, where those nice folk at Marathon have stand-out odds of 3.0, compared with the likes of PP who offer only 2.375 ..... these odds can't last.

As ever DYOR.

Yes, does not look good for him, particularly as he slipped another point behind Macron in ifop's latest daily rolling poll this afternoon. Now 3 points behind Macron and this news will not help.

Will Fillon withdraw? It must be a distinct possibility.

Well he initially said he would if indicted. Then he went back on that promise a week ago. I don't think he will withdraw unless there is pressure from his Party to do so. If he continues to slip further behind Macron, that may happen. But in a poll 65% have said he SHOULD withdraw. If you alienate 65% of the voters by clinging on, it does not give him a huge pool from which to gain the further support he needs to get into the second round.

Miliband is too kind, Labour is in the same mess it found itself under leadership of George Lansbury, but this time there doesn't appear to be an Attlee in the wings backed by the unions.

AlastairMeeks said:

Expect a new bout of backing David Miliband for next Labour leader:

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/835242015906484224

I'm sure I'm not the only pber who stands ready nobly to lay those bets on Betfair.

Can anyone read that Times article ?

50 years ago Labour were in government with a landslide majority.

And on 09/03/67 they were able to hold Nuneaton in a by-election:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuneaton_by-election,_1967

AlastairMeeks said:

Omnium said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Expect a new bout of backing David Miliband for next Labour leader:

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/835242015906484224

I'm sure I'm not the only pber who stands ready nobly to lay those bets on Betfair.

I suspect we all have DMill as a horrible result for next Labour leader. I am entirely baffled that anyone wants to back him.

First* he has to get into Parliament. Anyone fancy Labour at a by-election in the near future?

*Actually first he has to want to return. Then he has to be selected as a candidate for a seat.

Yes - 'I am entirely baffled'

He has to want to get back in.
He has to find a seat.
He has to get selected for the seat.
He has to win the seat.
He has to gain the confidence of his fellow MPs.
He has to get sufficient nominations to be on the leadership ballot.
He has to get elected as Labour leader.

Mind you Farage is trading at similar levels to be next PM.

foxinsoxuk said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I wonder if David Miliband fancies being the Labour MP for Liverpool Walton.

He just needs to persuade a Labour MP to step aside, create a walkover byelection and to be parachuted in by Corbyn.

Nope. Can't see a flaw in that plan. Anyone know if Bootle could come free?

Should DM decide to return to the British political scene, then Huddersfield is the ultra safe seat being kept warm for him.

TheScreamingEagles said:

I wonder if David Miliband fancies being the Labour MP for Liverpool Walton.

Does David Miliband really want to leave a $400 000 salary and life in Manhattan to be a backbench Labour MP for Liverpool Walton, assuming of course he gets past Momentum for the selection which is a big if?

#Corbynmustgo is no 1 trend on Twitter. The cult members aren't happy.

what do the Westminster by lections tell us about the shares of the vote according to current polls. I'd hazard that Labour are overstated and should be about 20-22% but is that right?

justin124 said:

Both by elections confirmed my view that Brexit is not the dominant issue in the minds of voters when they cast their votes. Copeland was clearly about Nuclear Power - the NHS - and Corbyn with very little evidence of Brexit as a major issue per se. The failure of UKIP to break through at Stoke added very much to that impression. Some signs last night from Faisal Islam on the Sky election programme that - at last - that penny is beginning to drop.

Countered by the Richmond Park by election, where the candidates were unanimous on the Heathrow issue. Perhaps your view is correct when there are significant local issues to care about.

peter_from_putney said:

foxinsoxuk said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I wonder if David Miliband fancies being the Labour MP for Liverpool Walton.

He just needs to persuade a Labour MP to step aside, create a walkover byelection and to be parachuted in by Corbyn.

Nope. Can't see a flaw in that plan. Anyone know if Bootle could come free?

Should DM decide to return to the British political scene, then Huddersfield is the ultra safe seat being kept warm for him.

After Copeland, Huddersfield is not ultra safe.

Black_Rook said:

dr_spyn said:

Given public's disdain for Tim Who is he Farron, the LDs appear to be picking up votes in local elections.

1. Mostly very low turnout, put out the bins elections that most voters don't care about
2. Lib Dems love winning and are good at targetting favourable wards, bringing in activists and turning their vote out
3. Lib Dem successes in tiny local by-elections offer no useful indicator of what will happen in Parliamentary elections, which is what Tory supporters are really interested in
4. Current VI poling numbers point to Conservative landslide, LDs may make ten gains if they do really well

Some of those local by elections has higher turnouts than Stoke!

Omnium said:

Mr Hayfield.

So does this mean?;
- Locals are meaningless
- The LDs are a trusted force of the mundane
- Everyone wants Blair back, even Broon
- Something else

What it clearly doesn't mean is that the LDs are on some sort of triumphant rampage - we saw that last night. Could you cast any light on the interpretation?

I really have no idea I am afraid. I cannot understand why the Liberal Democrats seem to be gaining seats at the local election level (usually having never stood the last time) and therefore suggest to speak to Professors Rallings and Thrasher to see if they can figure it out

justin124 said:

Both by elections confirmed my view that Brexit is not the dominant issue in the minds of voters when they cast their votes. Copeland was clearly about Nuclear Power - the NHS - and Corbyn with very little evidence of Brexit as a major issue per se. The failure of UKIP to break through at Stoke added very much to that impression. Some signs last night from Faisal Islam on the Sky election programme that - at last - that penny is beginning to drop.

It is to the extent that the Toriesare doing better in Leave seats than Remain seats at the moment and the LDs the reverse and Labour are doing worse than 2015 in both

chestnut said:

SquareRoot said:

what do the Westminster by lections tell us about the shares of the vote according to current polls. I'd hazard that Labour are overstated and should be about 20-22% but is that right?

25-26% looks accurate.

The Tories are on around 39-40.

LDs and UKIP both on 10-12.

The remainder are nationalists, Greens, NI and Flying Brick Bus Pass Elvis'.

ty how does the maths work svp

TheScreamingEagles said:

Christ on a bike

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/835192306428960768

As if it wasn't bad enough referring to Copeland as a marginal, what person is supposed to believe not winning both seats is a blow to May and the government? Who was proposing both would be won by the Tories?

Do they really expect anyone to believe these lines?

foxinsoxuk said:

*or real one. North Korea has launched missiles, and demonstrated its ownership of nerve gas.

The press and politicians are overstating the significance of North Korea having VX. Aum Shinrikyo, the group that carried out the Sarin attack on the subway in Tokyo, made VX as well and used it in an earlier series of smaller scale attacks that were essentially unreported in the west. It's likely that North Korea does have a large stockpile of chemical and biological weapons, but it's not quite the shocker some seem to think it is. It's surprising there aren't more such terrorist attacks.

SquareRoot said:

chestnut said:

SquareRoot said:

what do the Westminster by lections tell us about the shares of the vote according to current polls. I'd hazard that Labour are overstated and should be about 20-22% but is that right?

25-26% looks accurate.

The Tories are on around 39-40.

LDs and UKIP both on 10-12.

The remainder are nationalists, Greens, NI and Flying Brick Bus Pass Elvis'.

ty how does the maths work svp

UKIP would get -2 seats on that basis I think

SquareRoot said:

what do the Westminster by lections tell us about the shares of the vote according to current polls. I'd hazard that Labour are overstated and should be about 20-22% but is that right?

Martin Baxter reckons around a 5% swing to the blues from GE'15. 42-31-13UK-8LD-4GR.

Edit: That Lab score of 31 is from the article but is way too high based on current polling. More like 26.

Headline speaks for itself, and a picture tells 1000 words!
https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/835124628641181697

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

Both by elections confirmed my view that Brexit is not the dominant issue in the minds of voters when they cast their votes. Copeland was clearly about Nuclear Power - the NHS - and Corbyn with very little evidence of Brexit as a major issue per se. The failure of UKIP to break through at Stoke added very much to that impression. Some signs last night from Faisal Islam on the Sky election programme that - at last - that penny is beginning to drop.

It is to the extent that the Toriesare doing better in Leave seats than Remain seats at the moment and the LDs the reverse and Labour are doing worse than 2015 in both

But it was certainly not a major campaign issue - even if the Tories derived some benefit from its side effects on UKIP. The LD recovery is probably simply a natural bounce from an exceptionally weak position and is likely to have occurred anyway.

The Tories certainly campaigned on Brexit alongside nuclear power in Copeland and being continuity Remain gave the LDs some momentum for recovery on strong Remain areas

At a GE under Corbyn you have to factor in the effect that NATO/Unilateral Nuclear Disarmament and the Monarchy is going to have on voting intention.

Neither of the above issues are in the media narrative or voters minds at the moment.

In a GE campaign it's absolutely certain Corbyn will be attacked mercilessly on NATO/ Unilateral Nuclear Disarmament - and it's bound to feature in TV debates etc.

Next in line will be the Monarchy - as soon as Corbyn gives a wishy washy answer that he's "not campaigning on the Monarchy" the tabloids will go for it big time and it'll then spill over into the TV news narrative.

It's anyone's guess how many more votes Lab could lose on the above issues but it could easily be substantial.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Christ on a bike

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/835192306428960768

Now be fair, Mr Eagles. They are competitive. They have demonstrated they can still beat UKIP and the Liberal Democrats (no mean achievement given how awful their candidate in Stoke was).

The only tiny flaw in their logic is that competing against the fifth and joint sixth largest parties for vote share is not actually going to help them much and may even distract them from the people whom they should be at least trying to compete with - the ones in first place.

Edited because I forgot that Sinn Fein have more MPs than UKIP.

Further edited because I forgot the DUP as well. Labour really are fighting with the big boys right now, aren't they? Doing slightly better than two parties failing to match the performance of a couple of groups elected on sectarian lines from a civil war 95 years ago.

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

Both by elections confirmed my view that Brexit is not the dominant issue in the minds of voters when they cast their votes. Copeland was clearly about Nuclear Power - the NHS - and Corbyn with very little evidence of Brexit as a major issue per se. The failure of UKIP to break through at Stoke added very much to that impression. Some signs last night from Faisal Islam on the Sky election programme that - at last - that penny is beginning to drop.

It is to the extent that the Toriesare doing better in Leave seats than Remain seats at the moment and the LDs the reverse and Labour are doing worse than 2015 in both

But it was certainly not a major campaign issue - even if the Tories derived some benefit from its side effects on UKIP. The LD recovery is probably simply a natural bounce from an exceptionally weak position and is likely to have occurred anyway.

The Tories certainly campaigned on Brexit alongside nuclear power in Copeland and being continuity Remain gave the LDs some momentum for recovery on strong Remain areas

Not much evidence that it was a major factor though - certainly with regard to switching votes beyond the UKIP collapse there.

Winning o

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

Both by elections confirmed my view that Brexit is not the dominant issue in the minds of voters when they cast their votes. Copeland was clearly about Nuclear Power - the NHS - and Corbyn with very little evidence of Brexit as a major issue per se. The failure of UKIP to break through at Stoke added very much to that impression. Some signs last night from Faisal Islam on the Sky election programme that - at last - that penny is beginning to drop.

It is to the extent that the Toriesare doing better in Leave seats than Remain seats at the moment and the LDs the reverse and Labour are doing worse than 2015 in both

But it was certainly not a major campaign issue - even if the Tories derived some benefit from its side effects on UKIP. The LD recovery is probably simply a natural bounce from an exceptionally weak position and is likely to have occurred anyway.

The Tories certainly campaigned on Brexit alongside nuclear power in Copeland and being continuity Remain gave the LDs some momentum for recovery on strong Remain areas

Not much evidence that it was a major factor though - certainly with regard to switching votes beyond the UKIP collapse there.

Wininng over voters from UKIP played a key part in the Tory majority

MikeL said:

At a GE under Corbyn you have to factor in the effect that NATO/Unilateral Nuclear Disarmament and the Monarchy is going to have on voting intention.

Neither of the above issues are in the media narrative or voters minds at the moment.

In a GE campaign it's absolutely certain Corbyn will be attacked mercilessly on NATO/ Unilateral Nuclear Disarmament - and it's bound to feature in TV debates etc.

Next in line will be the Monarchy - as soon as Corbyn gives a wishy washy answer that he's "not campaigning on the Monarchy" the tabloids will go for it big time and it'll then spill over into the TV news narrative.

It's anyone's guess how many more votes Lab could lose on the above issues but it could easily be substantial.

For one thing come the general election any sort of Tories For Corbyn thinking will be in the bin, they won't pull their punches.

AnneJGP said:

HYUFD said:

peter_from_putney said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I wonder if David Miliband fancies being the Labour MP for Liverpool Walton.

Does David Miliband really want to leave a $400 000 salary and life in Manhattan to be a backbench Labour MP for Liverpool Walton, assuming of course he gets past Momentum for the selection which is a big if?

You might just have a point there HYUFD!

Yes, David Miliband would certainly have to have a greater love of Labour than I would have in his situation, especially given the party's previous snubbing of him

More than that, I'd think. However great his love for the Labour party, David Miliband would also need to have the vision to pull Labour round and the self-belief that he is able to inspire the membership to rally behind his vision for Labour.

Even discounting the high number of members who are far more left-wing than he is, he wasn't able to inspire the then-membership to select D Miliband as leader the first time round, and when E Miliband stepped down and more of D Miliband's contemporaries stood for leader, there was hardly an iota of vision amongst them.

I suppose it's possible that the experience of being pipped at the post / stabbed in the back by his younger brother might have radically changed him into a visionary & charismatic leader, but it seems unlikely.

He's a politician, so he might have the self-belief, but then, so did E Miliband.

D. Miliband is not a politician. He has no imagination and lacks ruthlessness.
He is not a leader. He has neither energy nor charisma.
He is not a visionary. He is in fact more or less vacuous in policy terms (those New Labour manifestos...)
He is not collegiate. He works badly with other people and lets them down at crucial moments (ask James Purnell).

What he is - undoubtedly - is a talented administrator. That is why his tenure at DEFRA was a rare gleam of light in the life of that troubled department. But unless he has a clear problem to solve and instructions on what the solution needs to do, he's completely lost.

He would be absolutely the wrong leader for Labour right now. Truth to tell, he would not be a suitable leader except under highly unusual circumstances where administrative talent mattered more than leadership or drive - as a deputy PM in a national government, running the Home Office, I can imagine he would be superb, a latter day Anderson. But he would not have done better than Ed, conceivably worse, and would not be the needed radical improvement on Corbyn.

foxinsoxuk said:

dr_spyn said:

Miliband is too kind, Labour is in the same mess it found itself under leadership of George Lansbury.

3 years later it was in government, and 10 years later single party government.

Given by-elections at the time (which is the best indicator we have), the likelihood is that the National government would have been returned for a third election in autumn 1939 / spring 1940, had not war intervened. Without the unique circumstances of WWII, Labour would have been out of power for at least a decade after Lansbury. (What would have happened in a 1943/4/5 election is fairly unknowable given that that timeline would have diverged so far from our own. We couldn't even know who the PM would have been after Chamberlain's illness in 1940.

Rofl

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Oldham_East_and_Saddleworth_by-election,_2011

Paul Nuttall UKIP 2,029 5.8 +1.9
Nick "The Flying Brick" Delves Monster Raving Loony 145

@iainmartin1: Peak Thornberry on @BBCNewsnight followed by Neil Hamilton on UKIP failure. They'll be playing this video at the CCHQ Christmas party.

But the Tories' vote went UP in both of last night's WESTMINSTER by-elections

AnneJGP said:

HYUFD said:

peter_from_putney said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I wonder if David Miliband fancies being the Labour MP for Liverpool Walton.

Does David Miliband really want to leave a $400 000 salary and life in Manhattan to be a backbench Labour MP for Liverpool Walton, assuming of course he gets past Momentum for the selection which is a big if?

You might just have a point there HYUFD!

Yes, David Miliband would certainly have to have a greater love of Labour than I would have in his situation, especially given the party's previous snubbing of him

More than that, I'd think. However great his love for the Labour party, David Miliband would also need to have the vision to pull Labour round and the self-belief that he is able to inspire the membership to rally behind his vision for Labour.

Even discounting the high number of members who are far more left-wing than he is, he wasn't able to inspire the then-membership to select D Miliband as leader the first time round, and when E Miliband stepped down and more of D Miliband's contemporaries stood for leader, there was hardly an iota of vision amongst them.

I suppose it's possible that the experience of being pipped at the post / stabbed in the back by his younger brother might have radically changed him into a visionary & charismatic leader, but it seems unlikely.

He's a politician, so he might have the self-belief, but then, so did E Miliband.

Yes I think it is pretty safe to say the next Labour PM, if there is to be another Labour PM, will not have the surname Miliband