politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov’s BREXIT tracker is back to exactly where it was just a

System · February 2017

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov’s BREXIT tracker is back to exactly where it was just after Theresa May became PM

Above is YouGov’s BREXIT tracker in which it has been regularly asking the same question “In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?” over many months.”

Read the full story here

MikeL · February 2017

191 Peers have put their names down to speak in the 2nd reading debate on the EU Withdrawal Bill next week.

If they all speak for even, say, just 8 minutes on average that's over 25 hours.

Debate scheduled for two days (Mon and Tue) - but with a morning start on Day 2. Looks like two very long days.

That's all before they even get to the Committee stage the following week when they'll start discussing their amendments.

CarlottaVance · February 2017

Second! Like REMAIN!

CarlottaVance · February 2017

FPT:

SeanT said:
OFF-topic, but are there any financial experts in the house? Is Mister Nabavi around, or Charles, perhaps?

It's just that (and I am genuinely not trying to sound like a smug twat, or at least no more than normal) thanks to the nice Germans and Dutch and Nordics and Frogs, I have stupid amounts of money now sitting in my various accounts, in cash. A very sizeable six figure sum.

What the F do I do with it? I've already got a fairly hefty sum in shares. I'm invested in a start-up company. My main asset is London property so it doesn't make sense to buy more property, as diversifying is key, isn't it? Plus it could crash.

So where do you put it? Land? Gold? What? Premium Bonds?

Advice welcome. And yes this is a Very Very First World Problem and I am sorry for sounding like a git, but I am genuinely clueless. And pb is often very good in these situations.

Don't know how many six figures you've got - but a friend who moved to SA recently forwarded me this beauty (out of my league...)

http://www.knightfrank.co.za/properties/residential/for-sale/franschhoek-cape-town/za253029

Torby_Fennel · February 2017

Not surprising figures considering that all events and arguments since the referendum have proven all of us on both sides of the debate to be 100% correct in our own minds.

CarlottaVance · February 2017

There has also been effectively no movement on

'Will be Britain be better or worse off':

http://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/do-you-think-britain-will-be-economically-better-or-worse-off-after-we-leave-the-eu/?removed

Britain have more or less influence in the world:

http://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/do-you-think-britain-will-have-more-or-less-influence-in-the-world-after-we-leave-the-eu/?removed

A marginal growth in belief that there will be less immigration:

http://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/do-you-think-there-will-be-more-or-less-immigration-into-britain-after-we-leave-the-eu/?removed

But a clear shift on:

"How well or badly do you think the government are doing at negotiating Britain’s exit from the EU?"

From -51 in September to -9 now

http://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/how-well-or-badly-do-you-the-government-are-doing-at-negotiating-britains-exit-from-the-eu/?removed=removed&groups[0][0]=Very+well&groups[0][1]=Fairly+well&groups[1][2]=Fairly+badly&groups[1][3]=Very+badly

CarlottaVance · February 2017

OVER the past seven months the British economy has beaten almost all forecasts. Since the Brexit vote last June, a recession has easily been avoided and job growth remains decent. In one part of the country, however, things look very different. In the year to September Scotland’s GDP grew by 0.7%, while that of the rest of the country grew by 2.4% (see chart). Employment there is falling and wages growing much more slowly than elsewhere.

Scotland’s weak performance is linked to problems in its two most important industries: energy and finance. Those two businesses’ exports have together accounted for up to a third of Scotland’s GDP in the past. Now both are in trouble.

Scottish finance is struggling for two reasons. First, argues Owen Kelly of Edinburgh Napier University, it disproportionately comprises mid-range work, such as customer service. Those jobs are vulnerable to automation, which is proceeding apace across the financial-services industry.....Second, speculation about another independence referendum is hurting the industry. Since the Brexit vote, in which a majority of Scots chose to Remain, the ruling Scottish National Party has accelerated plans for what it calls “indyref2”..... This concerns Scottish financial firms much more than Brexit does. The vast bulk of their business takes place in the rest of Britain, not Scotland,..... Some firms are making contingency plans. Murray Asset Management, another Edinburgh firm, recently moved its registered office to London

http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21717089-cheap-oil-and-loss-jobs-finance-have-brought-economic-growth-almost

surbiton · February 2017

MikeL said:
191 Peers have put their names down to speak in the 2nd reading debate on the EU Withdrawal Bill next week.

If they all speak for even, say, just 8 minutes on average that's over 25 hours.

Debate scheduled for two days (Mon and Tue) - but with a morning start on Day 2. Looks like two very long days.

That's all before they even get to the Committee stage the following week when they'll start discussing their amendments.

Let the unelected revising chamber do its bloody job.

Revise the bill.

surbiton · February 2017

FPT

MrsB said:
what's really interesting in that Emmbrook result is when you compare it to 2016 (Wokingham elects in thirds) - Lib Dems 1222 Cons 1235 has become Lib Dems 1575 and Cons 879.

Campaign fought on local issues, including development, roads, school funding and the local Tories being a bunch of unpleasant greedy people who are fighting like rats in a sack.

As the Lib Dem agent, I am very proud.

First of all, well done !

Second, I repeat what I wrote a couple of days back. I am beginning to doubt the current opinion polls. All these adjustments to the weighting has created a dog's breakfast.

The Tories cannot have such a big lead and lose badly in all sorts of local by-elections , up and down the country.

How can it be that only the Tories do not come out to vote ?

CarlottaVance · February 2017

Blair's speech getting a 'mixed' response......even in the Guardian:

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/832719508993236993

williamglenn · February 2017

@CarlottaVance You'll be pleased to see the transatlantic relationship is in good shape.

Sean_F · February 2017

surbiton said:
FPT
MrsB said:
what's really interesting in that Emmbrook result is when you compare it to 2016 (Wokingham elects in thirds) - Lib Dems 1222 Cons 1235 has become Lib Dems 1575 and Cons 879.

Campaign fought on local issues, including development, roads, school funding and the local Tories being a bunch of unpleasant greedy people who are fighting like rats in a sack.

As the Lib Dem agent, I am very proud.
First of all, well done !

Second, I repeat what I wrote a couple of days back. I am beginning to doubt the current opinion polls. All these adjustments to the weighting has created a dog's breakfast.

The Tories cannot have such a big lead and lose badly in all sorts of local by-elections , up and down the country.

How can it be that only the Tories do not come out to vote ?

Take a look at how Labour performed in local by-elections, after 1997. It had no bearing on the next two general elections.

RobD · February 2017

williamglenn said:
@CarlottaVance You'll be pleased to see the transatlantic relationship is in good shape.

You should have posted some of the date night images

CarlottaVance · February 2017

RobD said:

williamglenn said:
@CarlottaVance You'll be pleased to see the transatlantic relationship is in good shape.

You should have posted some of the date night images

The internet had fun....

http://time.com/4674485/angela-merkel-justin-trudeau-memes/

Imagine williamglenn's comments if May had had a 'candle lit romantic dinner' with Trudeau.....

RobD · February 2017

CarlottaVance said:

RobD said:

williamglenn said:
@CarlottaVance You'll be pleased to see the transatlantic relationship is in good shape.

You should have posted some of the date night images
The internet had fun....

http://time.com/4674485/angela-merkel-justin-trudeau-memes/

Imagine williamglenn's comments if May had had a 'candle lit romantic dinner' with Trudeau.....

Nothing wrong with a bit of chemistry between world leaders. Back in the day that used to lead to personal unions

Bromptonaut · February 2017

Sean_F said:

surbiton said:
FPT
MrsB said:
what's really interesting in that Emmbrook result is when you compare it to 2016 (Wokingham elects in thirds) - Lib Dems 1222 Cons 1235 has become Lib Dems 1575 and Cons 879.

Campaign fought on local issues, including development, roads, school funding and the local Tories being a bunch of unpleasant greedy people who are fighting like rats in a sack.

As the Lib Dem agent, I am very proud.
First of all, well done !

Second, I repeat what I wrote a couple of days back. I am beginning to doubt the current opinion polls. All these adjustments to the weighting has created a dog's breakfast.

The Tories cannot have such a big lead and lose badly in all sorts of local by-elections , up and down the country.

How can it be that only the Tories do not come out to vote ?
Take a look at how Labour performed in local by-elections, after 1997. It had no bearing on the next two general elections.

Richmond.

RobD · February 2017

Bromptonaut said:

Sean_F said:

surbiton said:
FPT
MrsB said:
what's really interesting in that Emmbrook result is when you compare it to 2016 (Wokingham elects in thirds) - Lib Dems 1222 Cons 1235 has become Lib Dems 1575 and Cons 879.

Campaign fought on local issues, including development, roads, school funding and the local Tories being a bunch of unpleasant greedy people who are fighting like rats in a sack.

As the Lib Dem agent, I am very proud.
First of all, well done !

Second, I repeat what I wrote a couple of days back. I am beginning to doubt the current opinion polls. All these adjustments to the weighting has created a dog's breakfast.

The Tories cannot have such a big lead and lose badly in all sorts of local by-elections , up and down the country.

How can it be that only the Tories do not come out to vote ?
Take a look at how Labour performed in local by-elections, after 1997. It had no bearing on the next two general elections.
Richmond.

What about it?

CarlottaVance · February 2017

Right wing government that's only doing BREXIT:

http://www.itv.com/news/2017-02-18/theresa-may-to-oversee-new-domestic-violence-law/

CarlottaVance · February 2017

RobD said:

Bromptonaut said:

Sean_F said:

surbiton said:
FPT
MrsB said:
what's really interesting in that Emmbrook result is when you compare it to 2016 (Wokingham elects in thirds) - Lib Dems 1222 Cons 1235 has become Lib Dems 1575 and Cons 879.

Campaign fought on local issues, including development, roads, school funding and the local Tories being a bunch of unpleasant greedy people who are fighting like rats in a sack.

As the Lib Dem agent, I am very proud.
First of all, well done !

Second, I repeat what I wrote a couple of days back. I am beginning to doubt the current opinion polls. All these adjustments to the weighting has created a dog's breakfast.

The Tories cannot have such a big lead and lose badly in all sorts of local by-elections , up and down the country.

How can it be that only the Tories do not come out to vote ?
Take a look at how Labour performed in local by-elections, after 1997. It had no bearing on the next two general elections.
Richmond.
What about it?

It was a Lib Dem triumph against the Tories an independent under normal unique circumstances.....

RobD · February 2017

CarlottaVance said:

RobD said:

Bromptonaut said:

Sean_F said:

surbiton said:
FPT
MrsB said:
what's really interesting in that Emmbrook result is when you compare it to 2016 (Wokingham elects in thirds) - Lib Dems 1222 Cons 1235 has become Lib Dems 1575 and Cons 879.

Campaign fought on local issues, including development, roads, school funding and the local Tories being a bunch of unpleasant greedy people who are fighting like rats in a sack.

As the Lib Dem agent, I am very proud.
First of all, well done !

Second, I repeat what I wrote a couple of days back. I am beginning to doubt the current opinion polls. All these adjustments to the weighting has created a dog's breakfast.

The Tories cannot have such a big lead and lose badly in all sorts of local by-elections , up and down the country.

How can it be that only the Tories do not come out to vote ?
Take a look at how Labour performed in local by-elections, after 1997. It had no bearing on the next two general elections.
Richmond.
What about it?
It was a Lib Dem triumph against the Tories an independent under normal unique circumstances.....

Ah, preparation for government intensifies....

tlg86 · February 2017

CarlottaVance said:
But a clear shift on:

"How well or badly do you think the government are doing at negotiating Britain’s exit from the EU?"

From -51 in September to -9 now

http://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/how-well-or-badly-do-you-the-government-are-doing-at-negotiating-britains-exit-from-the-eu/?removed=removed&groups[0][0]=Very+well&groups[0][1]=Fairly+well&groups[1][2]=Fairly+badly&groups[1][3]=Very+badly

Very interesting, thank you for sharing. Perhaps not too surprising but a clear change.

CarlottaVance · February 2017

RobD said:

CarlottaVance said:

RobD said:

Bromptonaut said:

Sean_F said:

surbiton said:
FPT
MrsB said:
what's really interesting in that Emmbrook result is when you compare it to 2016 (Wokingham elects in thirds) - Lib Dems 1222 Cons 1235 has become Lib Dems 1575 and Cons 879.

Campaign fought on local issues, including development, roads, school funding and the local Tories being a bunch of unpleasant greedy people who are fighting like rats in a sack.

As the Lib Dem agent, I am very proud.
First of all, well done !

Second, I repeat what I wrote a couple of days back. I am beginning to doubt the current opinion polls. All these adjustments to the weighting has created a dog's breakfast.

The Tories cannot have such a big lead and lose badly in all sorts of local by-elections , up and down the country.

How can it be that only the Tories do not come out to vote ?
Take a look at how Labour performed in local by-elections, after 1997. It had no bearing on the next two general elections.
Richmond.
What about it?
It was a Lib Dem triumph against the Tories an independent under normal unique circumstances.....
Ah, preparation for government intensifies....

They're lucky to be led by that titan Tim Farron - who Lib Dem voters rate so highly

Net Favourable among VI

May: +63
Corbyn: -2
Farron: +10 (28% DK)
Nuttall: -3 (52% DK)

Oh well, he's better than Corbyn or Nuttall......

RobD · February 2017

CarlottaVance said:

RobD said:

CarlottaVance said:

RobD said:

Bromptonaut said:

Sean_F said:

surbiton said:
FPT
MrsB said:
what's really interesting in that Emmbrook result is when you compare it to 2016 (Wokingham elects in thirds) - Lib Dems 1222 Cons 1235 has become Lib Dems 1575 and Cons 879.

Campaign fought on local issues, including development, roads, school funding and the local Tories being a bunch of unpleasant greedy people who are fighting like rats in a sack.

As the Lib Dem agent, I am very proud.
First of all, well done !

Second, I repeat what I wrote a couple of days back. I am beginning to doubt the current opinion polls. All these adjustments to the weighting has created a dog's breakfast.

The Tories cannot have such a big lead and lose badly in all sorts of local by-elections , up and down the country.

How can it be that only the Tories do not come out to vote ?
Take a look at how Labour performed in local by-elections, after 1997. It had no bearing on the next two general elections.
Richmond.
What about it?
It was a Lib Dem triumph against the Tories an independent under normal unique circumstances.....
Ah, preparation for government intensifies....
They're lucky to be led by that titan Tim Farron - who Lib Dem voters rate so highly

Net Favourable among VI

May: +63
Corbyn: -2
Farron: +10 (28% DK)
Nuttall: -3 (52% DK)

Oh well, he's better than Corbyn or Nuttall......

Those percentages are for all voters, or just voters of that party? I suspect the former given May's numbers.

Surprised that the exploits of the good Doctor, sorry Lord Nuttall are not widely known.... innocent face...

CarlottaVance · February 2017

tlg86 said:

CarlottaVance said:
But a clear shift on:

"How well or badly do you think the government are doing at negotiating Britain’s exit from the EU?"

From -51 in September to -9 now

http://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/how-well-or-badly-do-you-the-government-are-doing-at-negotiating-britains-exit-from-the-eu/?removed=removed&groups[0][0]=Very+well&groups[0][1]=Fairly+well&groups[1][2]=Fairly+badly&groups[1][3]=Very+badly
Very interesting, thank you for sharing. Perhaps not too surprising but a clear change.

Unlike PB posters voters in general don't pay much attention (and why should they?) so the minutiae of what's going on washes over them - as the vox pop lady in Sedgefield observed yesterday 'We've had the vote, the politicians should just get on with it' - and May's speech is probably viewed as 'getting on with it'.

CarlottaVance · February 2017

RobD said:

CarlottaVance said:

RobD said:

CarlottaVance said:

RobD said:

Bromptonaut said:

Sean_F said:

surbiton said:
FPT
MrsB said:
what's really interesting in that Emmbrook result is when you compare it to 2016 (Wokingham elects in thirds) - Lib Dems 1222 Cons 1235 has become Lib Dems 1575 and Cons 879.

Campaign fought on local issues, including development, roads, school funding and the local Tories being a bunch of unpleasant greedy people who are fighting like rats in a sack.

As the Lib Dem agent, I am very proud.
First of all, well done !

Second, I repeat what I wrote a couple of days back. I am beginning to doubt the current opinion polls. All these adjustments to the weighting has created a dog's breakfast.

The Tories cannot have such a big lead and lose badly in all sorts of local by-elections , up and down the country.

How can it be that only the Tories do not come out to vote ?
Take a look at how Labour performed in local by-elections, after 1997. It had no bearing on the next two general elections.
Richmond.
What about it?
It was a Lib Dem triumph against the Tories an independent under normal unique circumstances.....
Ah, preparation for government intensifies....
They're lucky to be led by that titan Tim Farron - who Lib Dem voters rate so highly

Net Favourable among VI

May: +63
Corbyn: -2
Farron: +10 (28% DK)
Nuttall: -3 (52% DK)

Oh well, he's better than Corbyn or Nuttall......
Those percentages are for all voters, or just voters of that party?

Just voters for that party - hence among VI

For completeness - Among ALL Voters - excluding Don't Knows - which are high for Farron & Nuttall

May: +6
Corbyn: -48
Farron: -46
Nuttall: -78

MonikerDiCanio · February 2017

CarlottaVance said:
OVER the past seven months the British economy has beaten almost all forecasts. Since the Brexit vote last June, a recession has easily been avoided and job growth remains decent. In one part of the country, however, things look very different. In the year to September Scotland’s GDP grew by 0.7%, while that of the rest of the country grew by 2.4% (see chart). Employment there is falling and wages growing much more slowly than elsewhere.

Scotland’s weak performance is linked to problems in its two most important industries: energy and finance. Those two businesses’ exports have together accounted for up to a third of Scotland’s GDP in the past. Now both are in trouble.

Scottish finance is struggling for two reasons. First, argues Owen Kelly of Edinburgh Napier University, it disproportionately comprises mid-range work, such as customer service. Those jobs are vulnerable to automation, which is proceeding apace across the financial-services industry.....Second, speculation about another independence referendum is hurting the industry. Since the Brexit vote, in which a majority of Scots chose to Remain, the ruling Scottish National Party has accelerated plans for what it calls “indyref2”..... This concerns Scottish financial firms much more than Brexit does. The vast bulk of their business takes place in the rest of Britain, not Scotland,..... Some firms are making contingency plans. Murray Asset Management, another Edinburgh firm, recently moved its registered office to London

http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21717089-cheap-oil-and-loss-jobs-finance-have-brought-economic-growth-almost

The Quebec Effect.
All drearily predictable.
Luckily Davidson is prospering and will hopefully soon rid Scotland of the Nationalist blight.

CarlottaVance · February 2017

MonikerDiCanio said:

CarlottaVance said:
OVER the past seven months the British economy has beaten almost all forecasts. Since the Brexit vote last June, a recession has easily been avoided and job growth remains decent. In one part of the country, however, things look very different. In the year to September Scotland’s GDP grew by 0.7%, while that of the rest of the country grew by 2.4% (see chart). Employment there is falling and wages growing much more slowly than elsewhere.

Scotland’s weak performance is linked to problems in its two most important industries: energy and finance. Those two businesses’ exports have together accounted for up to a third of Scotland’s GDP in the past. Now both are in trouble.

Scottish finance is struggling for two reasons. First, argues Owen Kelly of Edinburgh Napier University, it disproportionately comprises mid-range work, such as customer service. Those jobs are vulnerable to automation, which is proceeding apace across the financial-services industry.....Second, speculation about another independence referendum is hurting the industry. Since the Brexit vote, in which a majority of Scots chose to Remain, the ruling Scottish National Party has accelerated plans for what it calls “indyref2”..... This concerns Scottish financial firms much more than Brexit does. The vast bulk of their business takes place in the rest of Britain, not Scotland,..... Some firms are making contingency plans. Murray Asset Management, another Edinburgh firm, recently moved its registered office to London

http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21717089-cheap-oil-and-loss-jobs-finance-have-brought-economic-growth-almost
The Quebec Effect.
All drearily predictable.

Today's big hoo-ha is BAe Systems scaling back investment on the Clyde - Westminster LIES! they scream.

Or is it a business weighing risks - whats the point of sinking a fortune of permanent infrastructure into the shipyards of a country whose government may shortly be campaigning for you to lose most of your future orders?

RobD · February 2017

MonikerDiCanio said:

CarlottaVance said:
OVER the past seven months the British economy has beaten almost all forecasts. Since the Brexit vote last June, a recession has easily been avoided and job growth remains decent. In one part of the country, however, things look very different. In the year to September Scotland’s GDP grew by 0.7%, while that of the rest of the country grew by 2.4% (see chart). Employment there is falling and wages growing much more slowly than elsewhere.

Scotland’s weak performance is linked to problems in its two most important industries: energy and finance. Those two businesses’ exports have together accounted for up to a third of Scotland’s GDP in the past. Now both are in trouble.

Scottish finance is struggling for two reasons. First, argues Owen Kelly of Edinburgh Napier University, it disproportionately comprises mid-range work, such as customer service. Those jobs are vulnerable to automation, which is proceeding apace across the financial-services industry.....Second, speculation about another independence referendum is hurting the industry. Since the Brexit vote, in which a majority of Scots chose to Remain, the ruling Scottish National Party has accelerated plans for what it calls “indyref2”..... This concerns Scottish financial firms much more than Brexit does. The vast bulk of their business takes place in the rest of Britain, not Scotland,..... Some firms are making contingency plans. Murray Asset Management, another Edinburgh firm, recently moved its registered office to London

http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21717089-cheap-oil-and-loss-jobs-finance-have-brought-economic-growth-almost
The Quebec Effect.
All drearily predictable.
Luckily Davidson is prospering and will hopefully soon rid Scotland of the Nationalist blight.

Scottish Tory Surge Klaxon on standby

RobD · February 2017

CarlottaVance said:

RobD said:

CarlottaVance said:

RobD said:

CarlottaVance said:

RobD said:

Bromptonaut said:

Sean_F said:

surbiton said:
FPT
MrsB said:
what's really interesting in that Emmbrook result is when you compare it to 2016 (Wokingham elects in thirds) - Lib Dems 1222 Cons 1235 has become Lib Dems 1575 and Cons 879.

Campaign fought on local issues, including development, roads, school funding and the local Tories being a bunch of unpleasant greedy people who are fighting like rats in a sack.

As the Lib Dem agent, I am very proud.
First of all, well done !

Second, I repeat what I wrote a couple of days back. I am beginning to doubt the current opinion polls. All these adjustments to the weighting has created a dog's breakfast.

The Tories cannot have such a big lead and lose badly in all sorts of local by-elections , up and down the country.

How can it be that only the Tories do not come out to vote ?
Take a look at how Labour performed in local by-elections, after 1997. It had no bearing on the next two general elections.
Richmond.
What about it?
It was a Lib Dem triumph against the Tories an independent under normal unique circumstances.....
Ah, preparation for government intensifies....
They're lucky to be led by that titan Tim Farron - who Lib Dem voters rate so highly

Net Favourable among VI

May: +63
Corbyn: -2
Farron: +10 (28% DK)
Nuttall: -3 (52% DK)

Oh well, he's better than Corbyn or Nuttall......
Those percentages are for all voters, or just voters of that party?
Just voters for that party - hence among VI

For completeness - Among ALL Voters - excluding Don't Knows - which are high for Farron & Nuttall

May: +6
Corbyn: -48
Farron: -46
Nuttall: -78

Ah okay, Surprised May's numbers are so low from Tory voters!

IanB2 · February 2017

CarlottaVance said:

RobD said:

Bromptonaut said:

Sean_F said:

surbiton said:
FPT
MrsB said:
what's really interesting in that Emmbrook result is when you compare it to 2016 (Wokingham elects in thirds) - Lib Dems 1222 Cons 1235 has become Lib Dems 1575 and Cons 879.

Campaign fought on local issues, including development, roads, school funding and the local Tories being a bunch of unpleasant greedy people who are fighting like rats in a sack.

As the Lib Dem agent, I am very proud.
First of all, well done !

Second, I repeat what I wrote a couple of days back. I am beginning to doubt the current opinion polls. All these adjustments to the weighting has created a dog's breakfast.

The Tories cannot have such a big lead and lose badly in all sorts of local by-elections , up and down the country.

How can it be that only the Tories do not come out to vote ?
Take a look at how Labour performed in local by-elections, after 1997. It had no bearing on the next two general elections.
Richmond.
What about it?
It was a Lib Dem triumph against the Tories an independent under normal unique circumstances.....

And Labour down to 3%

OldKingCole · February 2017

CarlottaVance said:

RobD said:

Bromptonaut said:

Sean_F said:

surbiton said:
FPT
MrsB said:
what's really interesting in that Emmbrook result is when you compare it to 2016 (Wokingham elects in thirds) - Lib Dems 1222 Cons 1235 has become Lib Dems 1575 and Cons 879.

Campaign fought on local issues, including development, roads, school funding and the local Tories being a bunch of unpleasant greedy people who are fighting like rats in a sack.

As the Lib Dem agent, I am very proud.
First of all, well done !

Second, I repeat what I wrote a couple of days back. I am beginning to doubt the current opinion polls. All these adjustments to the weighting has created a dog's breakfast.

The Tories cannot have such a big lead and lose badly in all sorts of local by-elections , up and down the country.

How can it be that only the Tories do not come out to vote ?
Take a look at how Labour performed in local by-elections, after 1997. It had no bearing on the next two general elections.
Richmond.
What about it?
It was a Lib Dem triumph against the Tories an independent under normal unique circumstances.....

Every LD gain seems to be down to local/unique circumstances! Surprising how many such circumstances there are. And congrats to Mrs B.

CarlottaVance · February 2017

OldKingCole said:

CarlottaVance said:

RobD said:

Bromptonaut said:

Sean_F said:

surbiton said:
FPT
MrsB said:
what's really interesting in that Emmbrook result is when you compare it to 2016 (Wokingham elects in thirds) - Lib Dems 1222 Cons 1235 has become Lib Dems 1575 and Cons 879.

Campaign fought on local issues, including development, roads, school funding and the local Tories being a bunch of unpleasant greedy people who are fighting like rats in a sack.

As the Lib Dem agent, I am very proud.
First of all, well done !

Second, I repeat what I wrote a couple of days back. I am beginning to doubt the current opinion polls. All these adjustments to the weighting has created a dog's breakfast.

The Tories cannot have such a big lead and lose badly in all sorts of local by-elections , up and down the country.

How can it be that only the Tories do not come out to vote ?
Take a look at how Labour performed in local by-elections, after 1997. It had no bearing on the next two general elections.
Richmond.
What about it?
It was a Lib Dem triumph against the Tories an independent under normal unique circumstances.....
Every LD gain seems to be down to local/unique circumstances! Surprising how many such circumstances there are. And congrats to Mrs B.

I look forward to their triumphs in Stoke & Copeland.......

OldKingCole · February 2017

CarlottaVance said:

OldKingCole said:

CarlottaVance said:

RobD said:

Bromptonaut said:

Sean_F said:

surbiton said:
FPT
MrsB said:
what's really interesting in that Emmbrook result is when you compare it to 2016 (Wokingham elects in thirds) - Lib Dems 1222 Cons 1235 has become Lib Dems 1575 and Cons 879.

Campaign fought on local issues, including development, roads, school funding and the local Tories being a bunch of unpleasant greedy people who are fighting like rats in a sack.

As the Lib Dem agent, I am very proud.
First of all, well done !

Second, I repeat what I wrote a couple of days back. I am beginning to doubt the current opinion polls. All these adjustments to the weighting has created a dog's breakfast.

The Tories cannot have such a big lead and lose badly in all sorts of local by-elections , up and down the country.

How can it be that only the Tories do not come out to vote ?
Take a look at how Labour performed in local by-elections, after 1997. It had no bearing on the next two general elections.
Richmond.
What about it?
It was a Lib Dem triumph against the Tories an independent under normal unique circumstances.....
Every LD gain seems to be down to local/unique circumstances! Surprising how many such circumstances there are. And congrats to Mrs B.
I look forward to their triumphs in Stoke & Copeland.......

He who laughs last ......... has only just seen the dirty meaning!

Christian · February 2017

What will change things is further developments in EU demonstrating its distance from popular policy positions and its inability to reform itself.

Immediate candidates
- revived immigration into Greece as leverage by Erdogan,
- more terrorism linked to immigrant populations
- more Greek debt crisis, or Italian banking crisis,
- realisation within Germany that they will have to pay for this and/or change their beggar-my-neighbour policies of trade and govt surplus
- conflict between EU and nationalist government/parties in Netherlands or France or Poland etc
- creation of Euro army and division from NATO/USA
- ineffective response to some Putin provocation (cf Ukraine/Bosnia)

EU is broken and can't be mended - we need to start looking for structures within Europe to replace it when it collapses.

Morris_Dancer · February 2017

Good morning, everyone.

Mr. Christian, I agree with much of that, but I suspect the EU and its most devoted adherents will first be inclined to blame the UK for the EU's eventual failure rather than take our advice on fostering European co-operation in a way that isn't a bureaucratic, empire-building mess.

Mortimer · February 2017

Morris_Dancer said:
Good morning, everyone.

Mr. Christian, I agree with much of that, but I suspect the EU and its most devoted adherents will first be inclined to blame the UK for the EU's eventual failure rather than take our advice on fostering European co-operation in a way that isn't a bureaucratic, empire-building mess.

Morning Mr Dancer

Let's hope for fewer interventions from unpopular ex PMs today!

Morris_Dancer · February 2017

Mr. Mortimer, well, there won't be that many more

As Mr. Royale noted, the timing is highly suspect. After the Commons have voted, the better part of a year after the referendum result. Before Article 50 is triggered but after the likeliest means of stopping it has been passed.

The sum total of Blair's speech is to annoy most people and give a new campaigning line to the SNP. Damaging the integrity of one's own country is unworthy behaviour of an ex-Prime Minister, yet who can be surprised that Blair would sooner the UK fail than he be proved wrong?

Scott_P · February 2017

https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/832600433210380290

RobD · February 2017

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/832600433210380290

Farron certainly does have a rather large niche!

SquareRoot · February 2017

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/832600433210380290

well.. its not rocket science

daodao · February 2017

MonikerDiCanio said:

CarlottaVance said:
OVER the past seven months the British economy has beaten almost all forecasts. Since the Brexit vote last June, a recession has easily been avoided and job growth remains decent. In one part of the country, however, things look very different. In the year to September Scotland’s GDP grew by 0.7%, while that of the rest of the country grew by 2.4% (see chart). Employment there is falling and wages growing much more slowly than elsewhere.

Scotland’s weak performance is linked to problems in its two most important industries: energy and finance. Those two businesses’ exports have together accounted for up to a third of Scotland’s GDP in the past. Now both are in trouble.

Scottish finance is struggling for two reasons. First, argues Owen Kelly of Edinburgh Napier University, it disproportionately comprises mid-range work, such as customer service. Those jobs are vulnerable to automation, which is proceeding apace across the financial-services industry.....Second, speculation about another independence referendum is hurting the industry. Since the Brexit vote, in which a majority of Scots chose to Remain, the ruling Scottish National Party has accelerated plans for what it calls “indyref2”..... This concerns Scottish financial firms much more than Brexit does. The vast bulk of their business takes place in the rest of Britain, not Scotland,..... Some firms are making contingency plans. Murray Asset Management, another Edinburgh firm, recently moved its registered office to London

http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21717089-cheap-oil-and-loss-jobs-finance-have-brought-economic-growth-almost
The Quebec Effect.
All drearily predictable.
Luckily Davidson is prospering and will hopefully soon rid Scotland of the Nationalist blight.

When London is excluded from doing business easily with the EU with the almost inevitable loss of "passporting" following a hard Brexit, Edinburgh might prosper if Scotland seceded and rejoined the EU. The main current hit to the Scottish economy is the rapid decline in oil-related activity. The IndyRef in 2014 took place against the backdrop of oil-related prosperity, but failed - there is little chance for independence in the near future now that this has gone forever. However, the economic catastrophe that is on its way to the UK following full Brexit (remember we are in the phony war stage now) is likely to put Scottish secession to rejoin the EU back on the agenda.

On another note, I found it odd that Blair in his speech yesterday was accused of having given ammunition to the SNP and the break-up of the UK. He did that 20 years ago by rapid implementation of the ill-thought out devolution legislation - remember it was supposed to kill nationalism stone dead!

This cartoon from a few years ago is rather apt:
https://www.cairnstoon.com/product/out-on-a-limb/

AlastairMeeks · February 2017

Few have changed their mind yet, it seems. I find that surprising. You'd have thought that the country would have shifted one way or the other by now.

Scott_P · February 2017

https://twitter.com/gdnpolitics/status/832862731434733568

RobD · February 2017

Scott_P said:
twitter.com/gdnpolitics/status/832862731434733568

Say it ain't so!

AlastairMeeks · February 2017

I see the Blair-haters have yet to get over his temerity in voicing an opinion. Poor snowflakes.

logical_song · February 2017

OldKingCole said:

CarlottaVance said:

RobD said:

Bromptonaut said:

Sean_F said:

surbiton said:
FPT
MrsB said:
what's really interesting in that Emmbrook result is when you compare it to 2016 (Wokingham elects in thirds) - Lib Dems 1222 Cons 1235 has become Lib Dems 1575 and Cons 879.

Campaign fought on local issues, including development, roads, school funding and the local Tories being a bunch of unpleasant greedy people who are fighting like rats in a sack.

As the Lib Dem agent, I am very proud.
First of all, well done !

Second, I repeat what I wrote a couple of days back. I am beginning to doubt the current opinion polls. All these adjustments to the weighting has created a dog's breakfast.

The Tories cannot have such a big lead and lose badly in all sorts of local by-elections , up and down the country.

How can it be that only the Tories do not come out to vote ?
Take a look at how Labour performed in local by-elections, after 1997. It had no bearing on the next two general elections.
Richmond.
What about it?
It was a Lib Dem triumph against the Tories an independent under normal unique circumstances.....
Every LD gain seems to be down to local/unique circumstances! Surprising how many such circumstances there are. And congrats to Mrs B.

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 8h8 hours ago

Emmbrook (Wokingham) result:
LDEM: 59.7% (+22.3)
CON: 33.3% (-4.5)
UKIP: 3.9% (-11.7)
LAB: 3.0% (-6.1)

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 8h8 hours ago
Liberal Democrat GAIN Emmbrook (Wokingham) from Conservative

Another big swing to the LibDems and UKIP the biggest loser.

Alanbrooke · February 2017

AlastairMeeks said:
Few have changed their mind yet, it seems. I find that surprising. You'd have thought that the country would have shifted one way or the other by now.

clearly youre not campaigning hard enough to shift our opinions

Alanbrooke · February 2017

AlastairMeeks said:
I see the Blair-haters have yet to get over his temerity in voicing an opinion. Poor snowflakes.

If the pantomime villain walks on stage, it's the audience's job to boo and hiss

RobD · February 2017

Alanbrooke said:

AlastairMeeks said:
Few have changed their mind yet, it seems. I find that surprising. You'd have thought that the country would have shifted one way or the other by now.
clearly youre not campaigning hard enough to shift our opinions

He certainly is trying!

Freggles · February 2017

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/832600433210380290

Very good. It was very peculiar how people suddenly started talking in terms of 'constituencies' voting for or against Brexit, particularly in the Labour context, as if there were any relevance to that. Methinks it's part of a tendency to exaggerate Labour's woes on the part of right-wing pundits.

Alanbrooke · February 2017

logical_song said:

OldKingCole said:

CarlottaVance said:

RobD said:

Bromptonaut said:

Sean_F said:

surbiton said:
FPT
MrsB said:
what's really interesting in that Emmbrook result is when you compare it to 2016 (Wokingham elects in thirds) - Lib Dems 1222 Cons 1235 has become Lib Dems 1575 and Cons 879.

Campaign fought on local issues, including development, roads, school funding and the local Tories being a bunch of unpleasant greedy people who are fighting like rats in a sack.

As the Lib Dem agent, I am very proud.
First of all, well done !

Second, I repeat what I wrote a couple of days back. I am beginning to doubt the current opinion polls. All these adjustments to the weighting has created a dog's breakfast.

The Tories cannot have such a big lead and lose badly in all sorts of local by-elections , up and down the country.

How can it be that only the Tories do not come out to vote ?
Take a look at how Labour performed in local by-elections, after 1997. It had no bearing on the next two general elections.
Richmond.
What about it?
It was a Lib Dem triumph against the Tories an independent under normal unique circumstances.....
Every LD gain seems to be down to local/unique circumstances! Surprising how many such circumstances there are. And congrats to Mrs B.
Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 8h8 hours ago

Emmbrook (Wokingham) result:
LDEM: 59.7% (+22.3)
CON: 33.3% (-4.5)
UKIP: 3.9% (-11.7)
LAB: 3.0% (-6.1)

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 8h8 hours ago
Liberal Democrat GAIN Emmbrook (Wokingham) from Conservative

Another big swing to the LibDems and UKIP the biggest loser.

all those Leavers voting LD, could get interesting

PlatoSaid · February 2017

There'd been a bit of a fuss about this intv beforehand, with usual suspects all throwing a wobbly - I thought it worked out pretty well except the end

https://youtu.be/kSlC1eo2AFE

Morris_Dancer · February 2017

Mr. Meeks, you silly sausage.

AlastairMeeks · February 2017

Alanbrooke said:

AlastairMeeks said:
Few have changed their mind yet, it seems. I find that surprising. You'd have thought that the country would have shifted one way or the other by now.
clearly youre not campaigning hard enough to shift our opinions

I'm following the opposite strategy. I want Leavers to get steadily more entrenched in their opinions so that when the volte face becomes necessary to even the dimmest Leave voter, it is all the more excruciatingly humiliating for them.

Freggles · February 2017

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/gdnpolitics/status/832862731434733568

Is there some suggestion that Paul Nuttal has been embellishing his CV? Shurely shome mishtake?

SquareRoot · February 2017

AlastairMeeks said:
I see the Blair-haters have yet to get over his temerity in voicing an opinion. Poor snowflakes.

Blair will never get a hearing as he is a) untrustworthy and b) yesterdays man.
He has built a huge personal fortune on the back of his Middle East ambassador status and though his friendship with another loathed individual.

RobD · February 2017

PlatoSaid said:
There'd been a bit of a fuss about this intv beforehand, with usual suspects all throwing a wobbly - I thought it worked out pretty well except the end

youtu.be/kSlC1eo2AFE

This is what UC Berkeley was scared about? Pathetic!

Edit: I meant "Sad!", of course

CarlottaVance · February 2017

AlastairMeeks said:
I see the Blair-haters have yet to get over his temerity in voicing an opinion. Poor snowflakes.

Oh, you mean, voters? Keep up the good work - insulting the electorate worked a treat in the EURef....

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/832643579113639936

Mortimer · February 2017

AlastairMeeks said:
I see the Blair-haters have yet to get over his temerity in voicing an opinion. Poor snowflakes.

Haters?

He isn't worth hating. He is a parody of himself. A fool who in the hubris of his supposed 'success' has unwound everything he ever stood for.

He deserves pity, and encouragement to live a quiet life far away from trying to be an opinion changer.

AlastairMeeks · February 2017

CarlottaVance said:

AlastairMeeks said:
I see the Blair-haters have yet to get over his temerity in voicing an opinion. Poor snowflakes.
Oh, you mean, voters? Keep up the good work - insulting the electorate worked a treat in the EURef....

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/832643579113639936

On two different levels that poll does not say what you suggest it says.

MonikerDiCanio · February 2017

AlastairMeeks said:

Alanbrooke said:

AlastairMeeks said:
Few have changed their mind yet, it seems. I find that surprising. You'd have thought that the country would have shifted one way or the other by now.
clearly youre not campaigning hard enough to shift our opinions
I'm following the opposite strategy. I want Leavers to get steadily more entrenched in their opinions so that when the volte face becomes necessary to even the dimmest Leave voter, it is all the more excruciatingly humiliating for them.

A sad and twisted ambition. Pitiful.

Alanbrooke · February 2017

AlastairMeeks said:

Alanbrooke said:

AlastairMeeks said:
Few have changed their mind yet, it seems. I find that surprising. You'd have thought that the country would have shifted one way or the other by now.
clearly youre not campaigning hard enough to shift our opinions
I'm following the opposite strategy. I want Leavers to get steadily more entrenched in their opinions so that when the volte face becomes necessary to even the dimmest Leave voter, it is all the more excruciatingly humiliating for them.

we'll simply blame you for not campaigning hard enough

#shameless

CarlottaVance · February 2017

AlastairMeeks said:

CarlottaVance said:

AlastairMeeks said:
I see the Blair-haters have yet to get over his temerity in voicing an opinion. Poor snowflakes.
Oh, you mean, voters? Keep up the good work - insulting the electorate worked a treat in the EURef....

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/832643579113639936
On two different levels that poll does not say what you suggest it says.

Do educate us.....

What does it say?

JosiasJessop · February 2017

AlastairMeeks said:
I see the Blair-haters have yet to get over his temerity in voicing an opinion. Poor snowflakes.

That's slightly unfair, Mr Meeks. I'm not exactly a hardcore leaver, but I don't think his intervention was anything but unhelpful to those who wish to remain. He's yesterdays man and utterly discredited.

As it happens, his speech does not seem quite as bad as the initial reports had it - the BBC certainly toned down their headlines. Boris Johnson's reply was also a classic.

Having said that I have no doubt that many of the leavers clutching their handbags over his comments would be lauding him as a titan if he'd been on leave's side.

AlastairMeeks · February 2017

CarlottaVance said:

AlastairMeeks said:

CarlottaVance said:

AlastairMeeks said:
I see the Blair-haters have yet to get over his temerity in voicing an opinion. Poor snowflakes.
Oh, you mean, voters? Keep up the good work - insulting the electorate worked a treat in the EURef....

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/832643579113639936
On two different levels that poll does not say what you suggest it says.
Do educate us.....

What does it say?

Since you obviously can't read or do maths, it isn't worth the effort.

RobD · February 2017

AlastairMeeks said:

Alanbrooke said:

AlastairMeeks said:
Few have changed their mind yet, it seems. I find that surprising. You'd have thought that the country would have shifted one way or the other by now.
clearly youre not campaigning hard enough to shift our opinions
I'm following the opposite strategy. I want Leavers to get steadily more entrenched in their opinions so that when the volte face becomes necessary to even the dimmest Leave voter, it is all the more excruciatingly humiliating for them.

And when it doesn't happen? Then what?

Mortimer · February 2017

AlastairMeeks said:

CarlottaVance said:

AlastairMeeks said:

CarlottaVance said:

AlastairMeeks said:
I see the Blair-haters have yet to get over his temerity in voicing an opinion. Poor snowflakes.
Oh, you mean, voters? Keep up the good work - insulting the electorate worked a treat in the EURef....

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/832643579113639936
On two different levels that poll does not say what you suggest it says.
Do educate us.....

What does it say?
Since you obviously can't read or do maths, it isn't worth the effort.

Antifrank would be ashamed of such vapid bilge.

RobD · February 2017

AlastairMeeks said:

CarlottaVance said:

AlastairMeeks said:

CarlottaVance said:

AlastairMeeks said:
I see the Blair-haters have yet to get over his temerity in voicing an opinion. Poor snowflakes.
Oh, you mean, voters? Keep up the good work - insulting the electorate worked a treat in the EURef....

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/832643579113639936
On two different levels that poll does not say what you suggest it says.
Do educate us.....

What does it say?
Since you obviously can't read or do maths, it isn't worth the effort.

It says that only 8% of voters think Blair's intervention helped the remain cause. Or is there something between the lines we are all missing?

CarlottaVance · February 2017

SquareRoot said:

AlastairMeeks said:
I see the Blair-haters have yet to get over his temerity in voicing an opinion. Poor snowflakes.
Blair will never get a hearing as he is a) untrustworthy and b) yesterdays man.
He has built a huge personal fortune on the back of his Middle East ambassador status and though his friendship with another loathed individual.

Not all ex-PMs are liabilities - ahead of the last GE Major came out pretty well;

We heard recently Tony Blair pledge to "do whatever it takes to help Ed Miliband win". But what would be help most, visible support or keeping out of the way? For Red Box, YouGov asked the nation: "Thinking about retired politicians playing a role in the current election, do you think getting support from the following politicians would be an asset or a liability for today's politicians?"

The overall greatest asset is considered to be John Major, who scores net zero among the general public, although he is +21 among Conservatives supporters. The second greatest asset, only a whisker behind Major, is Paddy Ashdown on net -1, and net +45 among Liberal Democrats. Bottom of the league is Tony Blair, at net -47, and even among Labour supporters he scores net -22.

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/02/18/blair-election-liability-and-major-asset-say-voter/

Unfortunately, some Remainers are so convinced of their own position's moral rectitude they simply can't understand why any politician - whatever his record - who cleaves to their cause isn't worshiped as a returned prodigal son, here to cast the scales from the eyes of a dumb electorate.

CarlottaVance · February 2017

AlastairMeeks said:

CarlottaVance said:

AlastairMeeks said:

CarlottaVance said:

AlastairMeeks said:
I see the Blair-haters have yet to get over his temerity in voicing an opinion. Poor snowflakes.
Oh, you mean, voters? Keep up the good work - insulting the electorate worked a treat in the EURef....

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/832643579113639936
On two different levels that poll does not say what you suggest it says.
Do educate us.....

What does it say?
Since you obviously can't read or do maths, it isn't worth the effort.

It's not my comprehension which is in doubt.....

AlastairMeeks · February 2017

CarlottaVance said:

AlastairMeeks said:

CarlottaVance said:

AlastairMeeks said:

CarlottaVance said:

AlastairMeeks said:
I see the Blair-haters have yet to get over his temerity in voicing an opinion. Poor snowflakes.
Oh, you mean, voters? Keep up the good work - insulting the electorate worked a treat in the EURef....

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/832643579113639936
On two different levels that poll does not say what you suggest it says.
Do educate us.....

What does it say?
Since you obviously can't read or do maths, it isn't worth the effort.
It's not my comprehension which is in doubt.....

Your lack of comprehension is indeed not in doubt.

daodao · February 2017

Freggles said:

Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/gsoh31/status/832600433210380290
Very good. It was very peculiar how people suddenly started talking in terms of 'constituencies' voting for or against Brexit, particularly in the Labour context, as if there were any relevance to that. Methinks it's part of a tendency to exaggerate Labour's woes on the part of right-wing pundits.

The high pro-Brexit vote in the Northern England, the Midlands and south Wales was due to non-Labour folk who came out to vote on this occasion, but feel that it is a waste of time to do so in FPTP elections in safe Labour seats. It isn't Labour voters who are responsibe for Brexit, but Tory ones who didn't follow their leader's recommendations. However incompetent Corbyn is perceived to be, unlike Camerloon, he has no responsibility for the Brexit vote.

CarlottaVance · February 2017

JosiasJessop said:

AlastairMeeks said:
I see the Blair-haters have yet to get over his temerity in voicing an opinion. Poor snowflakes.
I don't think his intervention was anything but unhelpful to those who wish to remain..

You and the electorate. But what do either of you know?

Dura_Ace · February 2017

I see Blair still has the undeniable power of "Fuhrer Kontakt" about him. He could talk a dog off a meat wagon and I don't think we've seen the last of him in UK politics. And I say that as someone who got completely brainfucked serving in Iraq II at TB's behest.

CarlottaVance · February 2017

AlastairMeeks said:

CarlottaVance said:

AlastairMeeks said:

CarlottaVance said:

AlastairMeeks said:

CarlottaVance said:

AlastairMeeks said:
I see the Blair-haters have yet to get over his temerity in voicing an opinion. Poor snowflakes.
Oh, you mean, voters? Keep up the good work - insulting the electorate worked a treat in the EURef....

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/832643579113639936
On two different levels that poll does not say what you suggest it says.
Do educate us.....

What does it say?
Since you obviously can't read or do maths, it isn't worth the effort.
It's not my comprehension which is in doubt.....
Your lack of comprehension is indeed not in doubt.

Then do explain.....if you can.

CarlottaVance · February 2017

RobD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

CarlottaVance said:

AlastairMeeks said:

CarlottaVance said:

AlastairMeeks said:
I see the Blair-haters have yet to get over his temerity in voicing an opinion. Poor snowflakes.
Oh, you mean, voters? Keep up the good work - insulting the electorate worked a treat in the EURef....

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/832643579113639936
On two different levels that poll does not say what you suggest it says.
Do educate us.....

What does it say?
Since you obviously can't read or do maths, it isn't worth the effort.
It says that only 8% of voters think Blair's intervention helped the remain cause. Or is there something between the lines we are all missing?

Oh I do look forward to his insightful response......

malcolmg · February 2017

CarlottaVance said:
OVER the past seven months the British economy has beaten almost all forecasts. Since the Brexit vote last June, a recession has easily been avoided and job growth remains decent. In one part of the country, however, things look very different. In the year to September Scotland’s GDP grew by 0.7%, while that of the rest of the country grew by 2.4% (see chart). Employment there is falling and wages growing much more slowly than elsewhere.

Scotland’s weak performance is linked to problems in its two most important industries: energy and finance. Those two businesses’ exports have together accounted for up to a third of Scotland’s GDP in the past. Now both are in trouble.

Scottish finance is struggling for two reasons. First, argues Owen Kelly of Edinburgh Napier University, it disproportionately comprises mid-range work, such as customer service. Those jobs are vulnerable to automation, which is proceeding apace across the financial-services industry.....Second, speculation about another independence referendum is hurting the industry. Since the Brexit vote, in which a majority of Scots chose to Remain, the ruling Scottish National Party has accelerated plans for what it calls “indyref2”..... This concerns Scottish financial firms much more than Brexit does. The vast bulk of their business takes place in the rest of Britain, not Scotland,..... Some firms are making contingency plans. Murray Asset Management, another Edinburgh firm, recently moved its registered office to London

http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21717089-cheap-oil-and-loss-jobs-finance-have-brought-economic-growth-almost

London looking after itself and shafting Scotland first, business as usual. Only one solution , when you give someome else all your money you are stupid to think they will spend it on your interests rather than their own.

CarlottaVance · February 2017

Alanbrooke said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Alanbrooke said:

AlastairMeeks said:
Few have changed their mind yet, it seems. I find that surprising. You'd have thought that the country would have shifted one way or the other by now.
clearly youre not campaigning hard enough to shift our opinions
I'm following the opposite strategy. I want Leavers to get steadily more entrenched in their opinions so that when the volte face becomes necessary to even the dimmest Leave voter, it is all the more excruciatingly humiliating for them.
we'll simply blame you for not campaigning hard enough

#shameless

And then blaming everyone else......

DavidL · February 2017

The stability of those figures is remarkable. I wonder if they conceal any meaningful churn? My impression is that Tories are now funnelling in behind the current leadership and supporting what is government policy. The Lib Dems, who have had some gains as a result, are more obviously focussed on remain than ever. Labour are, as usual, all over the place.

I suspect the key moments are now coming up. Once the Bill is passed and the Article 50 notice is actually served I suspect that the focus of the vast majority will move on to what kind of Brexit rather than should there be one.

The very long hiatus since June has therefore contributed to the apparent stability. Parties need to think not just about their current positioning but what their positioning will be then. To that extent I disagree with Professor Curtis although Labour should certainly be reflecting the concerns of remainers about the Single Market, for example.

CarlottaVance · February 2017

malcolmg said:

CarlottaVance said:
OVER the past seven months the British economy has beaten almost all forecasts. Since the Brexit vote last June, a recession has easily been avoided and job growth remains decent. In one part of the country, however, things look very different. In the year to September Scotland’s GDP grew by 0.7%, while that of the rest of the country grew by 2.4% (see chart). Employment there is falling and wages growing much more slowly than elsewhere.

Scotland’s weak performance is linked to problems in its two most important industries: energy and finance. Those two businesses’ exports have together accounted for up to a third of Scotland’s GDP in the past. Now both are in trouble.

Scottish finance is struggling for two reasons. First, argues Owen Kelly of Edinburgh Napier University, it disproportionately comprises mid-range work, such as customer service. Those jobs are vulnerable to automation, which is proceeding apace across the financial-services industry.....Second, speculation about another independence referendum is hurting the industry. Since the Brexit vote, in which a majority of Scots chose to Remain, the ruling Scottish National Party has accelerated plans for what it calls “indyref2”..... This concerns Scottish financial firms much more than Brexit does. The vast bulk of their business takes place in the rest of Britain, not Scotland,..... Some firms are making contingency plans. Murray Asset Management, another Edinburgh firm, recently moved its registered office to London

http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21717089-cheap-oil-and-loss-jobs-finance-have-brought-economic-growth-almost
London looking after itself and shafting Scotland first, business as usual. Only one solution , when you give someome else all your money you are stupid to think they will spend it on your interests rather than their own.

No, its the neverendum stoking up uncertainty- the SNP government is doing it to Scotland - but blaming someone else is their MO....

RobD · February 2017

Morning malc... how is the turnip futures market treating you today?

SquareRoot · February 2017

CarlottaVance said:

SquareRoot said:

AlastairMeeks said:
I see the Blair-haters have yet to get over his temerity in voicing an opinion. Poor snowflakes.
Blair will never get a hearing as he is a) untrustworthy and b) yesterdays man.
He has built a huge personal fortune on the back of his Middle East ambassador status and though his friendship with another loathed individual.

Not all ex-PMs are liabilities - ahead of the last GE Major came out pretty well;

We heard recently Tony Blair pledge to "do whatever it takes to help Ed Miliband win". But what would be help most, visible support or keeping out of the way? For Red Box, YouGov asked the nation: "Thinking about retired politicians playing a role in the current election, do you think getting support from the following politicians would be an asset or a liability for today's politicians?"

The overall greatest asset is considered to be John Major, who scores net zero among the general public, although he is +21 among Conservatives supporters. The second greatest asset, only a whisker behind Major, is Paddy Ashdown on net -1, and net +45 among Liberal Democrats. Bottom of the league is Tony Blair, at net -47, and even among Labour supporters he scores net -22.

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/02/18/blair-election-liability-and-major-asset-say-voter/

Unfortunately, some Remainers are so convinced of their own position's moral rectitude they simply can't understand why any politician - whatever his record - who cleaves to their cause isn't worshiped as a returned prodigal son, here to cast the scales from the eyes of a dumb electorate.

As soon as Blair comes on the telly I reckon most people turn off or switch channel. The Iraq war hangs round his neck like a noose.

malcolmg · February 2017

MonikerDiCanio said:

CarlottaVance said:
OVER the past seven months the British economy has beaten almost all forecasts. Since the Brexit vote last June, a recession has easily been avoided and job growth remains decent. In one part of the country, however, things look very different. In the year to September Scotland’s GDP grew by 0.7%, while that of the rest of the country grew by 2.4% (see chart). Employment there is falling and wages growing much more slowly than elsewhere.

Scotland’s weak performance is linked to problems in its two most important industries: energy and finance. Those two businesses’ exports have together accounted for up to a third of Scotland’s GDP in the past. Now both are in trouble.

Scottish finance is struggling for two reasons. First, argues Owen Kelly of Edinburgh Napier University, it disproportionately comprises mid-range work, such as customer service. Those jobs are vulnerable to automation, which is proceeding apace across the financial-services industry.....Second, speculation about another independence referendum is hurting the industry. Since the Brexit vote, in which a majority of Scots chose to Remain, the ruling Scottish National Party has accelerated plans for what it calls “indyref2”..... This concerns Scottish financial firms much more than Brexit does. The vast bulk of their business takes place in the rest of Britain, not Scotland,..... Some firms are making contingency plans. Murray Asset Management, another Edinburgh firm, recently moved its registered office to London

http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21717089-cheap-oil-and-loss-jobs-finance-have-brought-economic-growth-almost
The Quebec Effect.
All drearily predictable.
Luckily Davidson is prospering and will hopefully soon rid Scotland of the Nationalist blight.

LOL , Scottish view from Swindon

AlastairMeeks · February 2017

CarlottaVance said:

AlastairMeeks said:

CarlottaVance said:

AlastairMeeks said:

CarlottaVance said:

AlastairMeeks said:

CarlottaVance said:

AlastairMeeks said:
I see the Blair-haters have yet to get over his temerity in voicing an opinion. Poor snowflakes.
Oh, you mean, voters? Keep up the good work - insulting the electorate worked a treat in the EURef....

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/832643579113639936
On two different levels that poll does not say what you suggest it says.
Do educate us.....

What does it say?
Since you obviously can't read or do maths, it isn't worth the effort.
It's not my comprehension which is in doubt.....
Your lack of comprehension is indeed not in doubt.
Then do explain.....if you can.

An ardent Blairite who agreed with every word might well have been among the 35% who thought his intervention would harm his cause. It's an objective question, not a question about his right to speak out. And note that figure of 35%. So hardly exactly a national scream of "SHUT UP TONY".

The snowflakes seem to be confined to twitter and the dimmer Blair-haters on political threads like this.

felix · February 2017

AlastairMeeks said:

Alanbrooke said:

AlastairMeeks said:
Few have changed their mind yet, it seems. I find that surprising. You'd have thought that the country would have shifted one way or the other by now.
clearly youre not campaigning hard enough to shift our opinions
I'm following the opposite strategy. I want Leavers to get steadily more entrenched in their opinions so that when the volte face becomes necessary to even the dimmest Leave voter, it is all the more excruciatingly humiliating for them.

Your preoccupation with the IQ levels of different voters is highly illuminating. Should the dimmer plebs also be sterilised?

malcolmg · February 2017

CarlottaVance said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

CarlottaVance said:
OVER the past seven months the British economy has beaten almost all forecasts. Since the Brexit vote last June, a recession has easily been avoided and job growth remains decent. In one part of the country, however, things look very different. In the year to September Scotland’s GDP grew by 0.7%, while that of the rest of the country grew by 2.4% (see chart). Employment there is falling and wages growing much more slowly than elsewhere.

Scotland’s weak performance is linked to problems in its two most important industries: energy and finance. Those two businesses’ exports have together accounted for up to a third of Scotland’s GDP in the past. Now both are in trouble.

Scottish finance is struggling for two reasons. First, argues Owen Kelly of Edinburgh Napier University, it disproportionately comprises mid-range work, such as customer service. Those jobs are vulnerable to automation, which is proceeding apace across the financial-services industry.....Second, speculation about another independence referendum is hurting the industry. Since the Brexit vote, in which a majority of Scots chose to Remain, the ruling Scottish National Party has accelerated plans for what it calls “indyref2”..... This concerns Scottish financial firms much more than Brexit does. The vast bulk of their business takes place in the rest of Britain, not Scotland,..... Some firms are making contingency plans. Murray Asset Management, another Edinburgh firm, recently moved its registered office to London

http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21717089-cheap-oil-and-loss-jobs-finance-have-brought-economic-growth-almost
The Quebec Effect.
All drearily predictable.
Today's big hoo-ha is BAe Systems scaling back investment on the Clyde - Westminster LIES! they scream.

Or is it a business weighing risks - whats the point of sinking a fortune of permanent infrastructure into the shipyards of a country whose government may shortly be campaigning for you to lose most of your future orders?

Carlotta salivating at job losses in Scotland, you cannot beat a unionist, we are in this together. Is it any wonder Tories are hated and vilified in Scotland, even the pretendy Scottish ones.

felix · February 2017

CarlottaVance said:

AlastairMeeks said:
I see the Blair-haters have yet to get over his temerity in voicing an opinion. Poor snowflakes.
Oh, you mean, voters? Keep up the good work - insulting the electorate worked a treat in the EURef....

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/832643579113639936

Meeks as one of the 8% - sounds about right.

foxinsoxuk · February 2017

SquareRoot said:

CarlottaVance said:

SquareRoot said:

AlastairMeeks said:
I see the Blair-haters have yet to get over his temerity in voicing an opinion. Poor snowflakes.
Blair will never get a hearing as he is a) untrustworthy and b) yesterdays man.
He has built a huge personal fortune on the back of his Middle East ambassador status and though his friendship with another loathed individual.

Not all ex-PMs are liabilities - ahead of the last GE Major came out pretty well;

We heard recently Tony Blair pledge to "do whatever it takes to help Ed Miliband win". But what would be help most, visible support or keeping out of the way? For Red Box, YouGov asked the nation: "Thinking about retired politicians playing a role in the current election, do you think getting support from the following politicians would be an asset or a liability for today's politicians?"

The overall greatest asset is considered to be John Major, who scores net zero among the general public, although he is +21 among Conservatives supporters. The second greatest asset, only a whisker behind Major, is Paddy Ashdown on net -1, and net +45 among Liberal Democrats. Bottom of the league is Tony Blair, at net -47, and even among Labour supporters he scores net -22.

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/02/18/blair-election-liability-and-major-asset-say-voter/

Unfortunately, some Remainers are so convinced of their own position's moral rectitude they simply can't understand why any politician - whatever his record - who cleaves to their cause isn't worshiped as a returned prodigal son, here to cast the scales from the eyes of a dumb electorate.
As soon as Blair comes on the telly I reckon most people turn off or switch channel. The Iraq war hangs round his neck like a noose.

It does, and Mrs May's Tories are very good at dodging the blame. The Iraq war couldnt have happened without their support outvoting the LDs and Labour rebels.

CarlottaVance · February 2017

AlastairMeeks said:

CarlottaVance said:

AlastairMeeks said:

CarlottaVance said:

AlastairMeeks said:

CarlottaVance said:

AlastairMeeks said:

CarlottaVance said:

AlastairMeeks said:
I see the Blair-haters have yet to get over his temerity in voicing an opinion. Poor snowflakes.
Oh, you mean, voters? Keep up the good work - insulting the electorate worked a treat in the EURef....

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/832643579113639936
On two different levels that poll does not say what you suggest it says.
Do educate us.....

What does it say?
Since you obviously can't read or do maths, it isn't worth the effort.
It's not my comprehension which is in doubt.....
Your lack of comprehension is indeed not in doubt.
Then do explain.....if you can.
An ardent Blairite who agreed with every word might well have been among the 35% who thought his intervention would harm his cause.

Since the strongest scores for 'harm his cause' were among UKIP (44) Con (40) and Lib Dem (39) voters - do you think there are many 'ardent Blairites' among their ranks?

Pulpstar · February 2017

AlastairMeeks said:
Few have changed their mind yet, it seems. I find that surprising. You'd have thought that the country would have shifted one way or the other by now.

Art 50 hasn't yet been triggered, and the economy has remained broadly positive.

If the economy stutters and we get back inflation once art 50 is triggered, and particularly migration rises I'd expect sentiment to shift towards 'We should have stayed'.

If the economy does well, inflation keeps low, the pound doesn't fall too much and migration reduces meaningfully then I'd expect sentiment to shift fully behind brexit.

We'll see.

AlastairMeeks · February 2017

CarlottaVance said:

AlastairMeeks said:

CarlottaVance said:

AlastairMeeks said:

CarlottaVance said:

AlastairMeeks said:

CarlottaVance said:

AlastairMeeks said:

CarlottaVance said:

AlastairMeeks said:
I see the Blair-haters have yet to get over his temerity in voicing an opinion. Poor snowflakes.
Oh, you mean, voters? Keep up the good work - insulting the electorate worked a treat in the EURef....

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/832643579113639936
On two different levels that poll does not say what you suggest it says.
Do educate us.....

What does it say?
Since you obviously can't read or do maths, it isn't worth the effort.
It's not my comprehension which is in doubt.....
Your lack of comprehension is indeed not in doubt.
Then do explain.....if you can.
An ardent Blairite who agreed with every word might well have been among the 35% who thought his intervention would harm his cause.
Since the strongest scores for 'harm his cause' were among UKIP (44) Con (40) and Lib Dem (39) voters - do you think there are many 'ardent Blairites' among their ranks?

I think you've been busted.

SquareRoot · February 2017

AlastairMeeks said:

CarlottaVance said:

AlastairMeeks said:

CarlottaVance said:

AlastairMeeks said:

CarlottaVance said:

AlastairMeeks said:

CarlottaVance said:

AlastairMeeks said:
I see the Blair-haters have yet to get over his temerity in voicing an opinion. Poor snowflakes.
Oh, you mean, voters? Keep up the good work - insulting the electorate worked a treat in the EURef....

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/832643579113639936
On two different levels that poll does not say what you suggest it says.
Do educate us.....

What does it say?
Since you obviously can't read or do maths, it isn't worth the effort.
It's not my comprehension which is in doubt.....
Your lack of comprehension is indeed not in doubt.
Then do explain.....if you can.
An ardent Blairite who agreed with every word might well have been among the 35% who thought his intervention would harm his cause. It's an objective question, not a question about his right to speak out. And note that figure of 35%. So hardly exactly a national scream of "SHUT UP TONY".

The snowflakes seem to be confined to twitter and the dimmer Blair-haters on political threads like this.

No idea why you are being so unpleasant. in your alter ego you never were. Why channel tim with such arrogance? People rightly loathe Blair for the Iraq war and the lies of his administrations.

malcolmg · February 2017

RobD said:
Morning malc... how is the turnip futures market treating you today?

Morning Rob, Turnips will flourish when we finally throw off the cold dead hand of London. It will be turnips for all.

RobD · February 2017

malcolmg said:

RobD said:
Morning malc... how is the turnip futures market treating you today?
Morning Rob, Turnips will flourish when we finally throw off the dead hand of London. It will be turnips for all.

I can see it now.. 'let them eat turnips'....

foxinsoxuk · February 2017

That 33% of Tory voters unconvinced by Brexit doesnt seem well represented in parliament. These polling leads that we see could be very brittle.

CarlottaVance · February 2017

DavidL said:
The stability of those figures is remarkable.

One set has shifted substantially - 'How well or badly do you think the government are doing at negotiating Britain’s exit from the EU?', from -51 to -9:

http://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/how-well-or-badly-do-you-the-government-are-doing-at-negotiating-britains-exit-from-the-eu/?removed=removed&groups[0][0]=Very+well&groups[0][1]=Fairly+well&groups[1][2]=Fairly+badly&groups[1][3]=Very+badly

RobD · February 2017

Pulpstar said:

AlastairMeeks said:
Few have changed their mind yet, it seems. I find that surprising. You'd have thought that the country would have shifted one way or the other by now.
Art 50 hasn't yet been triggered, and the economy has remained broadly positive.

If the economy stutters and we get back inflation once art 50 is triggered, and particularly migration rises I'd expect sentiment to shift towards 'We should have stayed'.

If the economy does well, inflation keeps low, the pound doesn't fall too much and migration reduces meaningfully then I'd expect sentiment to shift fully behind brexit.

We'll see.

I've been assured that the apocalypse is scheduled for the moment after A50 is triggered.

Mortimer · February 2017

foxinsoxuk said:

SquareRoot said:

CarlottaVance said:

SquareRoot said:

AlastairMeeks said:
I see the Blair-haters have yet to get over his temerity in voicing an opinion. Poor snowflakes.
Blair will never get a hearing as he is a) untrustworthy and b) yesterdays man.
He has built a huge personal fortune on the back of his Middle East ambassador status and though his friendship with another loathed individual.

Not all ex-PMs are liabilities - ahead of the last GE Major came out pretty well;

We heard recently Tony Blair pledge to "do whatever it takes to help Ed Miliband win". But what would be help most, visible support or keeping out of the way? For Red Box, YouGov asked the nation: "Thinking about retired politicians playing a role in the current election, do you think getting support from the following politicians would be an asset or a liability for today's politicians?"

The overall greatest asset is considered to be John Major, who scores net zero among the general public, although he is +21 among Conservatives supporters. The second greatest asset, only a whisker behind Major, is Paddy Ashdown on net -1, and net +45 among Liberal Democrats. Bottom of the league is Tony Blair, at net -47, and even among Labour supporters he scores net -22.

https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/02/18/blair-election-liability-and-major-asset-say-voter/

Unfortunately, some Remainers are so convinced of their own position's moral rectitude they simply can't understand why any politician - whatever his record - who cleaves to their cause isn't worshiped as a returned prodigal son, here to cast the scales from the eyes of a dumb electorate.
As soon as Blair comes on the telly I reckon most people turn off or switch channel. The Iraq war hangs round his neck like a noose.
It does, and Mrs May's Tories are very good at dodging the blame. The Iraq war couldnt have happened without their support outvoting the LDs and Labour rebels.

Forgiving those who had the wool pulled over their eyes is very easy when many in Britain shared the same fate.

Forgiving the wool master in chief is not likely, however much Violet Elizabeths scream and scream until they are sick...

CarlottaVance · February 2017

AlastairMeeks said:

CarlottaVance said:

AlastairMeeks said:

CarlottaVance said:

AlastairMeeks said:

CarlottaVance said:

AlastairMeeks said:

CarlottaVance said:

AlastairMeeks said:

CarlottaVance said:

AlastairMeeks said:
I see the Blair-haters have yet to get over his temerity in voicing an opinion. Poor snowflakes.
Oh, you mean, voters? Keep up the good work - insulting the electorate worked a treat in the EURef....

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/832643579113639936
On two different levels that poll does not say what you suggest it says.
Do educate us.....

What does it say?
Since you obviously can't read or do maths, it isn't worth the effort.
It's not my comprehension which is in doubt.....
Your lack of comprehension is indeed not in doubt.
Then do explain.....if you can.
An ardent Blairite who agreed with every word might well have been among the 35% who thought his intervention would harm his cause.
Since the strongest scores for 'harm his cause' were among UKIP (44) Con (40) and Lib Dem (39) voters - do you think there are many 'ardent Blairites' among their ranks?
I think you've been busted.

Its not me who constructs his case on the basis of ardent Blairites being in UKIP.....

MonikerDiCanio · February 2017

malcolmg said:

CarlottaVance said:
OVER the past seven months the British economy has beaten almost all forecasts. Since the Brexit vote last June, a recession has easily been avoided and job growth remains decent. In one part of the country, however, things look very different. In the year to September Scotland’s GDP grew by 0.7%, while that of the rest of the country grew by 2.4% (see chart). Employment there is falling and wages growing much more slowly than elsewhere.

Scotland’s weak performance is linked to problems in its two most important industries: energy and finance. Those two businesses’ exports have together accounted for up to a third of Scotland’s GDP in the past. Now both are in trouble.

Scottish finance is struggling for two reasons. First, argues Owen Kelly of Edinburgh Napier University, it disproportionately comprises mid-range work, such as customer service. Those jobs are vulnerable to automation, which is proceeding apace across the financial-services industry.....Second, speculation about another independence referendum is hurting the industry. Since the Brexit vote, in which a majority of Scots chose to Remain, the ruling Scottish National Party has accelerated plans for what it calls “indyref2”..... This concerns Scottish financial firms much more than Brexit does. The vast bulk of their business takes place in the rest of Britain, not Scotland,..... Some firms are making contingency plans. Murray Asset Management, another Edinburgh firm, recently moved its registered office to London

http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21717089-cheap-oil-and-loss-jobs-finance-have-brought-economic-growth-almost
London looking after itself and shafting Scotland first, business as usual. Only one solution , when you give someome else all your money you are stupid to think they will spend it on your interests rather than their own.

Blame the English isn't working anymore. SLab's fate awaits the failing SNP occupation.

Ishmael_Z · February 2017

AlastairMeeks said:

Alanbrooke said:

AlastairMeeks said:
Few have changed their mind yet, it seems. I find that surprising. You'd have thought that the country would have shifted one way or the other by now.
clearly youre not campaigning hard enough to shift our opinions
I'm following the opposite strategy. I want Leavers to get steadily more entrenched in their opinions so that when the volte face becomes necessary to even the dimmest Leave voter, it is all the more excruciatingly humiliating for them.

Mmm, worked brilliantly for the referendum itself.

I'd like to see a convention whereby every Remainer edits his username to give figures for hours spent canvassing, and £100s donated to the Remain campaign, last May/June. A worked example: AlastairMeeks (0, 0).

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