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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov’s BREXIT tracker is back to exactly where it was just a
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov’s BREXIT tracker is back to exactly where it was just after Theresa May became PM
Above is YouGov’s BREXIT tracker in which it has been regularly asking the same question “In hindsight, do you think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave the European Union?” over many months.”
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If they all speak for even, say, just 8 minutes on average that's over 25 hours.
Debate scheduled for two days (Mon and Tue) - but with a morning start on Day 2. Looks like two very long days.
That's all before they even get to the Committee stage the following week when they'll start discussing their amendments.
http://www.knightfrank.co.za/properties/residential/for-sale/franschhoek-cape-town/za253029
'Will be Britain be better or worse off':
http://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/do-you-think-britain-will-be-economically-better-or-worse-off-after-we-leave-the-eu/?removed
Britain have more or less influence in the world:
http://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/do-you-think-britain-will-have-more-or-less-influence-in-the-world-after-we-leave-the-eu/?removed
A marginal growth in belief that there will be less immigration:
http://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/do-you-think-there-will-be-more-or-less-immigration-into-britain-after-we-leave-the-eu/?removed
But a clear shift on:
"How well or badly do you think the government are doing at negotiating Britain’s exit from the EU?"
From -51 in September to -9 now
http://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/how-well-or-badly-do-you-the-government-are-doing-at-negotiating-britains-exit-from-the-eu/?removed=removed&groups[0][0]=Very+well&groups[0][1]=Fairly+well&groups[1][2]=Fairly+badly&groups[1][3]=Very+badly
Scotland’s weak performance is linked to problems in its two most important industries: energy and finance. Those two businesses’ exports have together accounted for up to a third of Scotland’s GDP in the past. Now both are in trouble.
Scottish finance is struggling for two reasons. First, argues Owen Kelly of Edinburgh Napier University, it disproportionately comprises mid-range work, such as customer service. Those jobs are vulnerable to automation, which is proceeding apace across the financial-services industry.....Second, speculation about another independence referendum is hurting the industry. Since the Brexit vote, in which a majority of Scots chose to Remain, the ruling Scottish National Party has accelerated plans for what it calls “indyref2”..... This concerns Scottish financial firms much more than Brexit does. The vast bulk of their business takes place in the rest of Britain, not Scotland,..... Some firms are making contingency plans. Murray Asset Management, another Edinburgh firm, recently moved its registered office to London
http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21717089-cheap-oil-and-loss-jobs-finance-have-brought-economic-growth-almost
Revise the bill.
Second, I repeat what I wrote a couple of days back. I am beginning to doubt the current opinion polls. All these adjustments to the weighting has created a dog's breakfast.
The Tories cannot have such a big lead and lose badly in all sorts of local by-elections , up and down the country.
How can it be that only the Tories do not come out to vote ?
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/832719508993236993
http://time.com/4674485/angela-merkel-justin-trudeau-memes/
Imagine williamglenn's comments if May had had a 'candle lit romantic dinner' with Trudeau.....
http://www.itv.com/news/2017-02-18/theresa-may-to-oversee-new-domestic-violence-law/
Net Favourable among VI
May: +63
Corbyn: -2
Farron: +10 (28% DK)
Nuttall: -3 (52% DK)
Oh well, he's better than Corbyn or Nuttall......
Surprised that the exploits of the good Doctor, sorry Lord Nuttall are not widely known.... innocent face...
For completeness - Among ALL Voters - excluding Don't Knows - which are high for Farron & Nuttall
May: +6
Corbyn: -48
Farron: -46
Nuttall: -78
All drearily predictable.
Luckily Davidson is prospering and will hopefully soon rid Scotland of the Nationalist blight.
Or is it a business weighing risks - whats the point of sinking a fortune of permanent infrastructure into the shipyards of a country whose government may shortly be campaigning for you to lose most of your future orders?
Immediate candidates
- revived immigration into Greece as leverage by Erdogan,
- more terrorism linked to immigrant populations
- more Greek debt crisis, or Italian banking crisis,
- realisation within Germany that they will have to pay for this and/or change their beggar-my-neighbour policies of trade and govt surplus
- conflict between EU and nationalist government/parties in Netherlands or France or Poland etc
- creation of Euro army and division from NATO/USA
- ineffective response to some Putin provocation (cf Ukraine/Bosnia)
EU is broken and can't be mended - we need to start looking for structures within Europe to replace it when it collapses.
Mr. Christian, I agree with much of that, but I suspect the EU and its most devoted adherents will first be inclined to blame the UK for the EU's eventual failure rather than take our advice on fostering European co-operation in a way that isn't a bureaucratic, empire-building mess.
Let's hope for fewer interventions from unpopular ex PMs today!
As Mr. Royale noted, the timing is highly suspect. After the Commons have voted, the better part of a year after the referendum result. Before Article 50 is triggered but after the likeliest means of stopping it has been passed.
The sum total of Blair's speech is to annoy most people and give a new campaigning line to the SNP. Damaging the integrity of one's own country is unworthy behaviour of an ex-Prime Minister, yet who can be surprised that Blair would sooner the UK fail than he be proved wrong?
On another note, I found it odd that Blair in his speech yesterday was accused of having given ammunition to the SNP and the break-up of the UK. He did that 20 years ago by rapid implementation of the ill-thought out devolution legislation - remember it was supposed to kill nationalism stone dead!
This cartoon from a few years ago is rather apt:
https://www.cairnstoon.com/product/out-on-a-limb/
Emmbrook (Wokingham) result:
LDEM: 59.7% (+22.3)
CON: 33.3% (-4.5)
UKIP: 3.9% (-11.7)
LAB: 3.0% (-6.1)
Britain Elects @britainelects 8h8 hours ago
Liberal Democrat GAIN Emmbrook (Wokingham) from Conservative
Another big swing to the LibDems and UKIP the biggest loser.
https://youtu.be/kSlC1eo2AFE
He has built a huge personal fortune on the back of his Middle East ambassador status and though his friendship with another loathed individual.
Edit: I meant "Sad!", of course
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/832643579113639936
He isn't worth hating. He is a parody of himself. A fool who in the hubris of his supposed 'success' has unwound everything he ever stood for.
He deserves pity, and encouragement to live a quiet life far away from trying to be an opinion changer.
#shameless
What does it say?
As it happens, his speech does not seem quite as bad as the initial reports had it - the BBC certainly toned down their headlines. Boris Johnson's reply was also a classic.
Having said that I have no doubt that many of the leavers clutching their handbags over his comments would be lauding him as a titan if he'd been on leave's side.
Not all ex-PMs are liabilities - ahead of the last GE Major came out pretty well;
We heard recently Tony Blair pledge to "do whatever it takes to help Ed Miliband win". But what would be help most, visible support or keeping out of the way? For Red Box, YouGov asked the nation: "Thinking about retired politicians playing a role in the current election, do you think getting support from the following politicians would be an asset or a liability for today's politicians?"
The overall greatest asset is considered to be John Major, who scores net zero among the general public, although he is +21 among Conservatives supporters. The second greatest asset, only a whisker behind Major, is Paddy Ashdown on net -1, and net +45 among Liberal Democrats. Bottom of the league is Tony Blair, at net -47, and even among Labour supporters he scores net -22.
https://yougov.co.uk/news/2015/02/18/blair-election-liability-and-major-asset-say-voter/
Unfortunately, some Remainers are so convinced of their own position's moral rectitude they simply can't understand why any politician - whatever his record - who cleaves to their cause isn't worshiped as a returned prodigal son, here to cast the scales from the eyes of a dumb electorate.
Oh I do look forward to his insightful response......
I suspect the key moments are now coming up. Once the Bill is passed and the Article 50 notice is actually served I suspect that the focus of the vast majority will move on to what kind of Brexit rather than should there be one.
The very long hiatus since June has therefore contributed to the apparent stability. Parties need to think not just about their current positioning but what their positioning will be then. To that extent I disagree with Professor Curtis although Labour should certainly be reflecting the concerns of remainers about the Single Market, for example.
The snowflakes seem to be confined to twitter and the dimmer Blair-haters on political threads like this.
If the economy stutters and we get back inflation once art 50 is triggered, and particularly migration rises I'd expect sentiment to shift towards 'We should have stayed'.
If the economy does well, inflation keeps low, the pound doesn't fall too much and migration reduces meaningfully then I'd expect sentiment to shift fully behind brexit.
We'll see.
http://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/how-well-or-badly-do-you-the-government-are-doing-at-negotiating-britains-exit-from-the-eu/?removed=removed&groups[0][0]=Very+well&groups[0][1]=Fairly+well&groups[1][2]=Fairly+badly&groups[1][3]=Very+badly
Forgiving the wool master in chief is not likely, however much Violet Elizabeths scream and scream until they are sick...
I'd like to see a convention whereby every Remainer edits his username to give figures for hours spent canvassing, and £100s donated to the Remain campaign, last May/June. A worked example: AlastairMeeks (0, 0).