politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Six times as many LD supporters say they’re concerned about BREXIT than UKIP voters
The above chart is based on data from the latest Ipsos MORI issues index and shows the party splits of those, unprompted, naming BREXIT as the main, or one of the the main, issues facing Britain at the moment.
All well and good but only 13% are LD voters. I have certainly found in Copeland that a voter leaning between Labour and the Tories will move to the Tories when you point out to them that will ensure backing for May's Brexit plans
All well and good but only 13% are LD voters. I have certainly found in Copeland that a voter leaning between Labour and the Tories will move to the Tories when you point out to them that will ensure backing for May's Brexit plans
More than 13% are LD voters in some places. Burton on Trent, for example.
All well and good but only 13% are LD voters. I have certainly found in Copeland that a voter leaning between Labour and the Tories will move to the Tories when you point out to them that will ensure backing for May's Brexit plans
More than 13% are LD voters in some places. Burton on Trent, for example.
On-topic, the government's change of line seems at this stage to be more mood music than reality. The word austerity may be gone, but there is still the deficit to be brought down, and the Treasury quite happy to use Brexit risk as a bogeyman. Likewise, on social conservatism, immigration cuts are promised in the future from Brexit, and grammar schools were offered as a token, but is there really any major reversal in social policy underway and exercising the contributers on here. I've not seen too much evidence yet.
Pulling a few cords and a bit of rhetoric in a certain direction, things having changed massively since the 1970s, does not a full return to Butskellism make as far as I can see.
Why is selection by ability regarded as more socially conservative than selection by ability to pay?
I don't think academic selection is regarded as "socially conservative" in general.
Academic selection at 18 is largely uncontroversial.
Academic selection at 16 is largely uncontroversial.
Academic selection at 11 is generally seen as retrograde.
Wonder where the threshold is - could they get away with proposing selection at 14?
We already have selection at 14. It is called setting.
I hate setting, but only because I'm the one who has to write the timetable...
Isn't there software that does that these days?
In the same way that there is softwares that will write a novel for you, yes. I can automate small chunks and it won't let me put two teachers in the same room (unless I really want to), but it is mostly hand crafted. If anyone out there in pb land knows of better timetableing software than Nova T6 please tell me.
I think UKIP's vote has always been more about immigration and a nebulous sense that they were more Trumpish - supposedly say fearlessly what ordinary folk were scared to say, don't suck up to power, etc. - than about Brexit per se. Since there was a referendum on Brexit, of course they expressed their opinion, but I think they'd mostly rather have had a referendum on much less immigaion. There is a minority UKIP view that's view different and relaly is about independence and taking back control of everything (Richard Tyndall represents it very well), but that's a bit more abstract than most voters bother with.
Edit: and I'm planning to stay there for some considerable time.
Don't get angry, get even.
We shouldn't obstruct Brexit.
Let it happen, and if we're proved wrong about it, so be it, it'll be great for the country and us, I'd much rather be mocked than see the UK struggle.
If it turns out Brexit is a disaster, well we can be proved right, and imagine the look on the Leavers face when they realise that we'll have to rejoin on the EU on worse terms than we left.
The Lib Dems on 79% is not a great surprise quite honestly, it’s more or less their raison d'être after all. My only concern for them is how they channel this anger once we’ve left the EU and what great cause they rally behind next.
Edit: and I'm planning to stay there for some considerable time.
Don't get angry, get even.
We shouldn't obstruct Brexit.
Let it happen, and if we're proved wrong about it, so be it, it'll be great for the country and us, I'd much rather be mocked than see the UK struggle.
If it turns out Brexit is a disaster, well we can be proved right, and imagine the look on the Leavers face when they realise that we'll have to rejoin on the EU on worse terms than we left.
If we rejoin anything it will be the EEA (though free movement will still be the elephant in the room) I can't imagine us ever rejoining the full EU again
U.S. and Commonwealth actually 1% more important than Europe on that poll and of course Europe includes non EU nations too
As we don't know what US and Commonwealth first choicers see as the second choice, it's a bit of a stretch to say that combined they beat Europe. In any case, in our first past the post system, 47% is one hell of a mandate.
Edit: and I'm planning to stay there for some considerable time.
Anger is a destructive emotion if dwelled upon. I am not angry we are leaving the EU as I never much cared for it. I am worried we are leaving the single market, though; especially on terms to be negotiated by a Prime Minister whose only concern is how the right of her party might react to any deal done.
All well and good but only 13% are LD voters. I have certainly found in Copeland that a voter leaning between Labour and the Tories will move to the Tories when you point out to them that will ensure backing for May's Brexit plans
I thought Jeremy Corbyn had sold out on his supporters, and was backing Mrs May`s Brexit plan.
Edit: and I'm planning to stay there for some considerable time.
Don't get angry, get even.
We shouldn't obstruct Brexit.
Let it happen, and if we're proved wrong about it, so be it, it'll be great for the country and us, I'd much rather be mocked than see the UK struggle.
If it turns out Brexit is a disaster, well we can be proved right, and imagine the look on the Leavers face when they realise that we'll have to rejoin on the EU on worse terms than we left.
If we rejoin anything it will be the EEA (though free movement will still be the elephant in the room) I can't imagine us ever rejoining the full EU again
I couldn't imagine us leaving. It would be bold to rule out rejoining.
Edit: and I'm planning to stay there for some considerable time.
Anger is a destructive emotion if dwelled upon. I am not angry we are leaving the EU as I never much cared for it. I am worried we are leaving the single market, though; especially on terms to be negotiated by a Prime Minister whose only concern is how the right of her party might react to any deal done.
Every poll shows Tory voters not just UKIP voters put ending free movement ahead of single market access so May is only doing what her voters want.
The Lib Dems on 79% is not a great surprise quite honestly, it’s more or less their raison d'être after all. My only concern for them is how they channel this anger once we’ve left the EU and what great cause they rally behind next.
There's bound to be something: Iraq, tuition fees, Brexit. There always something to complain about.
U.S. and Commonwealth actually 1% more important than Europe on that poll and of course Europe includes non EU nations too
As we don't know what US and Commonwealth first choicers see as the second choice, it's a bit of a stretch to say that combined they beat Europe. In any case, in our first past the post system, 47% is one hell of a mandate.
It is actually 1% less than what Remain actually got!
Of course Ukip voters aren't concerned - they're getting their own way. It's sit back and let them get on with it time.
However, if Brexit is stopped or even delayed, those voters will switch round rapidly. Even Jezza can see that you don't kick a hornet's nest when they are peaceful. Not just before a couple of important bye-elections.
Ukip will not win Stoke or Copeland. They were never in the frame, and never will be unless the HoL upsets the applecart within the next week . It's why Jezza had a three-line whip. The Northern Labour MPs can read the runes.
Only the die-hards will bother to vote Ukip - their purpose has disappeared for the time being.
Edit: and I'm planning to stay there for some considerable time.
Anger is a destructive emotion if dwelled upon. I am not angry we are leaving the EU as I never much cared for it. I am worried we are leaving the single market, though; especially on terms to be negotiated by a Prime Minister whose only concern is how the right of her party might react to any deal done.
Every poll shows Tory voters not just UKIP voters put ending free movement ahead of single market access so May is only doing what her voters want.
Edit: and I'm planning to stay there for some considerable time.
Anger is a destructive emotion if dwelled upon. I am not angry we are leaving the EU as I never much cared for it. I am worried we are leaving the single market, though; especially on terms to be negotiated by a Prime Minister whose only concern is how the right of her party might react to any deal done.
Every poll shows Tory voters not just UKIP voters put ending free movement ahead of single market access so May is only doing what her voters want.
She should be doing what is best for the country. Second guessing voters is a fool's errand and is not something real leaders do. Imagine if Mrs Thatcher had done it in the early years of her premiership.
All well and good but only 13% are LD voters. I have certainly found in Copeland that a voter leaning between Labour and the Tories will move to the Tories when you point out to them that will ensure backing for May's Brexit plans
I thought Jeremy Corbyn had sold out on his supporters, and was backing Mrs May`s Brexit plan.
That was a few days ago, of course.
Plenty of his MPs opposed Brexit and the Labour candidate in Copeland may well be of a similar view if elected, only Ken Clarke opposed it on the Tory benches
Curious that Tories rate Brexit far more highly as an issue than UKIP.
UKIP's figure may reflect that if you've won, you can be more detached.
It is a huge issue. But that doesn't mean 'concern'. We need to get on with it. LD issue is to ensure that we don't Tory issue is to ensure that we do. Labour focussing more on health. UKIP don't give a shit - job largely done.
Or it could be that the main concern of Conservative voters is that we do not end up with the economy wrecked. In this, they are like Lib Dem voters.
A lot of them have not yet realised that Mrs May, with her concern to outflank UKIP and keep the Tory Party united, is doing precisely that.
U.S. and Commonwealth actually 1% more important than Europe on that poll and of course Europe includes non EU nations too
As we don't know what US and Commonwealth first choicers see as the second choice, it's a bit of a stretch to say that combined they beat Europe. In any case, in our first past the post system, 47% is one hell of a mandate.
It is actually 1% less than what Remain actually got!
What tax exactly is proposed. Is it a tax on ALL financial transactions or on spot currency conversions (Which seems to be the definition of a tobin tax) ?
Edit: and I'm planning to stay there for some considerable time.
Don't get angry, get even.
We shouldn't obstruct Brexit.
Let it happen, and if we're proved wrong about it, so be it, it'll be great for the country and us, I'd much rather be mocked than see the UK struggle.
If it turns out Brexit is a disaster, well we can be proved right, and imagine the look on the Leavers face when they realise that we'll have to rejoin on the EU on worse terms than we left.
If we rejoin anything it will be the EEA (though free movement will still be the elephant in the room) I can't imagine us ever rejoining the full EU again
I couldn't imagine us leaving. It would be bold to rule out rejoining.
We are not going to rejoin the EU. We would effectively be humiliated and lose even the influence we had before as anything we pushed for could be ignored as the EU would know we cannot afford to leave
Edit: and I'm planning to stay there for some considerable time.
Anger is a destructive emotion if dwelled upon. I am not angry we are leaving the EU as I never much cared for it. I am worried we are leaving the single market, though; especially on terms to be negotiated by a Prime Minister whose only concern is how the right of her party might react to any deal done.
Every poll shows Tory voters not just UKIP voters put ending free movement ahead of single market access so May is only doing what her voters want.
She should be doing what is best for the country. Second guessing voters is a fool's errand and is not something real leaders do. Imagine if Mrs Thatcher had done it in the early years of her premiership.
Mrs Thatcher always kept the base on board which is why she won 3 elections and Heath lost 3 and won only one
U.S. and Commonwealth actually 1% more important than Europe on that poll and of course Europe includes non EU nations too
As we don't know what US and Commonwealth first choicers see as the second choice, it's a bit of a stretch to say that combined they beat Europe. In any case, in our first past the post system, 47% is one hell of a mandate.
It is actually 1% less than what Remain actually got!
Interesting thread header, though. The implication is that the most committed leavers now tend to regard Brexit as a settled issue (which is arguably confirmed by the handwaving away of any possible problems brought up by those opposed).
Extraordinarily, concern about the economy is at its lowest score since 2008 (the NHS and housing near highs).
Curious that Tories rate Brexit far more highly as an issue than UKIP.
UKIP's figure may reflect that if you've won, you can be more detached.
It is a huge issue. But that doesn't mean 'concern'. We need to get on with it. LD issue is to ensure that we don't Tory issue is to ensure that we do. Labour focussing more on health. UKIP don't give a shit - job largely done.
Or it could be that the main concern of Conservative voters is that we do not end up with the economy wrecked. In this, they are like Lib Dem voters.
A lot of them have not yet realised that Mrs May, with her concern to outflank UKIP and keep the Tory Party united, is doing precisely that.
Or maybe they're concerned that we don't wreck our democracy. Parliament not Brussels. Essentially all Remainers think staying in means staying in as things are now not as they will inevitably develop to become in the EU. They have not realised this yet. Status quo was never an option. The choice was Brexit or Superstate.
Taking parameters in isolation, though, does not tell you much about priorities or motivations in the real world.
In my workshops on safety, I spend a lot of time providing scientists with tools to help them set realistic priorities for improving safety and security. After conducting your brainstorming - the first step, and this is all this poll does (in fact, by only asking the first thing that comes to mind it is taking only the very first movement of the first step) - to generate your wish/fear list, then you must decide where to put the resources. To do that you have to ask a series of questions, such as:
What resources will it take? Do we have the resources/can we get them? At what opportunity cost? How long will it take? How difficult will it be? How able are we to do it, even with the resources? What else would does this action depend on to be successful? How willing are people to make the change? What is the likely impact? (probability of success x return)?
This is not an exhaustive list, but is indicative of the weightings that are needed to go from a wish list to an actual sense of people's motivations to act - what are they willing to put the time and effort into to do something about the initial vague feeling.
Mike in his 'this suggests that' is taking the results of the very first inch of the first step as the final priorities - or motivation - list. It may be true, but it is a highly suspect approach in my opinion. So suspect, it smacks me of confirmation bias.
U.S. and Commonwealth actually 1% more important than Europe on that poll and of course Europe includes non EU nations too
As we don't know what US and Commonwealth first choicers see as the second choice, it's a bit of a stretch to say that combined they beat Europe. In any case, in our first past the post system, 47% is one hell of a mandate.
It is actually 1% less than what Remain actually got!
What tax exactly is proposed. Is it a tax on ALL financial transactions or on spot currency conversions (Which seems to be the definition of a tobin tax) ?
On all transactions, including derivatives, although at a low rate. The contradiction with efforts by France and Germany to grab the UK's Euro-denominated clearing business is one of the more amusing aspects of it.
Edit: and I'm planning to stay there for some considerable time.
Anger is a destructive emotion if dwelled upon. I am not angry we are leaving the EU as I never much cared for it. I am worried we are leaving the single market, though; especially on terms to be negotiated by a Prime Minister whose only concern is how the right of her party might react to any deal done.
Every poll shows Tory voters not just UKIP voters put ending free movement ahead of single market access so May is only doing what her voters want.
She should be doing what is best for the country. Second guessing voters is a fool's errand and is not something real leaders do. Imagine if Mrs Thatcher had done it in the early years of her premiership.
Mrs Thatcher always kept the base on board which is why she won 3 elections and Heath lost 3 and won only one
unfortunately the giveaways have pretty much all been given away. (or rather the family silver has all been sold). If you see sid, tell him.
Mike in his 'this suggests that' is taking the results of the very first inch of the first step as the final priorities - or motivation - list. It may be true, but it is a highly suspect approach in my opinion. So suspect, it smacks me of confirmation bias.
The Lib Dems on 79% is not a great surprise quite honestly, it’s more or less their raison d'être after all. My only concern for them is how they channel this anger once we’ve left the EU and what great cause they rally behind next.
Meanwhile, for all the attention Tony Blair has had this morning for getting his response to the referendum result entirely wrong, it's worth giving some praise to Lucy Thomas, formerly deputy director of BSE, who this morning got it resoundingly correct:
Curious that Tories rate Brexit far more highly as an issue than UKIP.
UKIP's figure may reflect that if you've won, you can be more detached.
It is a huge issue. But that doesn't mean 'concern'. We need to get on with it. LD issue is to ensure that we don't Tory issue is to ensure that we do. Labour focussing more on health. UKIP don't give a shit - job largely done.
Or it could be that the main concern of Conservative voters is that we do not end up with the economy wrecked. In this, they are like Lib Dem voters.
A lot of them have not yet realised that Mrs May, with her concern to outflank UKIP and keep the Tory Party united, is doing precisely that.
The Mori attitudes survey shows the prevalence of remarkable complacency across the political spectrum regarding the economy.
Spending is rising - the world is coming to an end - unbalanced economy, savings rate down. Spending is falling - the world is coming to an end. Brexit.
Heh
My main concern is that the UK economy is so dependent on people like my brother's family whose main 'hobby' is shopping. I'd much rather were an export lead economy with a BoP surplus. I appreciate this is wishful thinking :>
This UKIP failure in Stoke seems to be in the same PB certainty bracket as
Ukip not winning Euros Carswell not winning Clacton by E Reckless losing Rochester By E NOM at GE 15 "It's the economy, stupid' 'meaning Remain win the Ref ...and the first female POTUS!
"Let it happen, and ...If it turns out Brexit is a disaster, well we can be proved right, and imagine the look on the Leavers face when they realise that we'll have to rejoin on the EU on worse terms than we left."
Funny that. I remember the Tories saying something similar in 1997. Let this new kid Blair ruin the economy like they always do and we'll be back within three years. How did that turn out?
"Let it happen, and ...If it turns out Brexit is a disaster, well we can be proved right, and imagine the look on the Leavers face when they realise that we'll have to rejoin on the EU on worse terms than we left."
Funny that. I remember the Tories saying something similar in 1997. Let this new kid Blair ruin the economy like they always do and we'll be back within three years. How did that turn out?
Err...they did ruin the public finances very comprehensively but it took a decade....
This UKIP failure in Stoke seems to be in the same PB certainty bracket as
Ukip not winning Euros Carswell not winning Clacton by E Reckless losing Rochester By E NOM at GE 15 "It's the economy, stupid' 'meaning Remain win the Ref ...and the first female POTUS!
you'll no doubt be making money anyhoo.
it will probably be a nuttall website failure rather than a ukip failure if it happens i guess. i suspect the stoke electorate is not going to swing so wildly. turnout i suppose
I voted Labour through the seventies up until 1997. I then switched to the LDs (and quite liked Paddy and the alky one) through to 2015 when I voted Kipper. I wouldn't think of voting Ukip now ... unless the anti-democrats gain the upper hand. Give me a good reason to so.
Once Tim ( a good old God-botherer) loses his Euro-fanaticism, I'll probably go back to the Yellows. Unless they dry hump the Greens, of course. I don't want to spend my dotage in a draughty cave eating grass.
This is a survey of one person (me) but why would Stoke vote Ukip at the moment?.
What tax exactly is proposed. Is it a tax on ALL financial transactions or on spot currency conversions (Which seems to be the definition of a tobin tax) ?
On all transactions, including derivatives, although at a low rate. The contradiction with efforts by France and Germany to grab the UK's Euro-denominated clearing business is one of the more amusing aspects of it.
Comments
Fake news Mike?
UKIP's figure may reflect that if you've won, you can be more detached.
https://twitter.com/IpsosMORI/status/832551412676567040
Don't overuse the 'fake news' accusation.
Surely not gender-neutral bathrooms!
LD issue is to ensure that we don't
Tory issue is to ensure that we do.
Labour focussing more on health.
UKIP don't give a shit - job largely done.
Edit: and I'm planning to stay there for some considerable time.
We shouldn't obstruct Brexit.
Let it happen, and if we're proved wrong about it, so be it, it'll be great for the country and us, I'd much rather be mocked than see the UK struggle.
If it turns out Brexit is a disaster, well we can be proved right, and imagine the look on the Leavers face when they realise that we'll have to rejoin on the EU on worse terms than we left.
Spin
Rub their noses
Dome / Cool Britannia wankiness
Not killing Gordo
Bringing PC identity politics to the UK
etc
etc
He made a huge difference to the UK. Nothing of it to our good. Justifiably detested by both left and right.
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/ipsos-mori-issues-index-jan-2017-tables.pdf
UKIP voters may not care too much about brexit - but they do want something done about the immigrants;
Page 32.
Most important issue = Immigration;
Con / Lab / Lib / UKIP
44% / 24% / 23% / 62%
It's become a cliche for people avoiding proper analysis.
Lords reform
Voting reform
Vastly increasing public spending for little gain
Tuition fees
Iraq
etc
etc
Trump's attack on the media comes at a time when the public's confidence in the media is at one of its all-time lows https://t.co/1cA6e94PcW https://t.co/W6S4fmaSAC
That was a few days ago, of course.
Are we still allowed 'alternate facts' ?
However, if Brexit is stopped or even delayed, those voters will switch round rapidly. Even Jezza can see that you don't kick a hornet's nest when they are peaceful. Not just before a couple of important bye-elections.
Ukip will not win Stoke or Copeland. They were never in the frame, and never will be unless the HoL upsets the applecart within the next week . It's why Jezza had a three-line whip. The Northern Labour MPs can read the runes.
Only the die-hards will bother to vote Ukip - their purpose has disappeared for the time being.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-02-17/eu-financial-transaction-tax-said-to-hit-roadblock-over-pensions
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/feb/17/europes-biggest-paper-bild-bogus-refugee-sex-mob-story
A lot of them have not yet realised that Mrs May, with her concern to outflank UKIP and keep the Tory Party united, is doing precisely that.
Extraordinarily, concern about the economy is at its lowest score since 2008 (the NHS and housing near highs).
Retail sales fall "unexpectedly"
Another Brexit beauty.
In my workshops on safety, I spend a lot of time providing scientists with tools to help them set realistic priorities for improving safety and security. After conducting your brainstorming - the first step, and this is all this poll does (in fact, by only asking the first thing that comes to mind it is taking only the very first movement of the first step) - to generate your wish/fear list, then you must decide where to put the resources. To do that you have to ask a series of questions, such as:
What resources will it take? Do we have the resources/can we get them? At what opportunity cost?
How long will it take?
How difficult will it be? How able are we to do it, even with the resources?
What else would does this action depend on to be successful?
How willing are people to make the change?
What is the likely impact? (probability of success x return)?
This is not an exhaustive list, but is indicative of the weightings that are needed to go from a wish list to an actual sense of people's motivations to act - what are they willing to put the time and effort into to do something about the initial vague feeling.
Mike in his 'this suggests that' is taking the results of the very first inch of the first step as the final priorities - or motivation - list. It may be true, but it is a highly suspect approach in my opinion. So suspect, it smacks me of confirmation bias.
Just wondering what order this irregular verb should be in...
I am spinning the story.
You are providing fake news.
He is spreading propaganda.
sorry, missed the point. edited. coat got.
I know. He was hilarious, wasn't he?
The MSM are wrong.
Spending is rising - the world is coming to an end - unbalanced economy, savings rate down.
Spending is falling - the world is coming to an end. Brexit.
https://twitter.com/lucycthomas/status/832488126996045824
My main concern is that the UK economy is so dependent on people like my brother's family whose main 'hobby' is shopping.
I'd much rather were an export lead economy with a BoP surplus. I appreciate this is wishful thinking :>
Ukip not winning Euros
Carswell not winning Clacton by E
Reckless losing Rochester By E
NOM at GE 15
"It's the economy, stupid' 'meaning Remain win the Ref
...and the first female POTUS!
"Let it happen, and ...If it turns out Brexit is a disaster, well we can be proved right, and imagine the look on the Leavers face when they realise that we'll have to rejoin on the EU on worse terms than we left."
Funny that. I remember the Tories saying something similar in 1997. Let this new kid Blair ruin the economy like they always do and we'll be back within three years. How did that turn out?
...
Breibart is #106; BBC News is #9 and #20 (.co.uk and .com)
+ Alexa data:
http://www.alexa.com/siteinfo/breitbart.com
The question of what the MSM is now, and what it will be in ten years' time, is very interesting, and especially if the current memes continue.
it will probably be a nuttall website failure rather than a ukip failure if it happens i guess. i suspect the stoke electorate is not going to swing so wildly. turnout i suppose
Suspect the trump voters equally likely to read bbc as I am breitbart
I voted Labour through the seventies up until 1997. I then switched to the LDs (and quite liked Paddy and the alky one) through to 2015 when I voted Kipper. I wouldn't think of voting Ukip now ... unless the anti-democrats gain the upper hand. Give me a good reason to so.
Once Tim ( a good old God-botherer) loses his Euro-fanaticism, I'll probably go back to the Yellows. Unless they dry hump the Greens, of course. I don't want to spend my dotage in a draughty cave eating grass.
This is a survey of one person (me) but why would Stoke vote Ukip at the moment?.
If you bet £20 on Tony Blair becoming the next Labour leader, you'll lose £20.
"Sand in the wheels" (© James Tobin) has now coalesced into a roadblock.