politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » No hard data, of course, on Stoke Central but two excellent pi
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » No hard data, of course, on Stoke Central but two excellent pieces of journalism
There’ve been two excellent pieces of journalism today on the Stoke Central by-election which both provide some insights and in broad terms are in the same area. The FT’s Sebastian Payne has the video report above and the excellent Stephen Bush in the New Statesman has stuck his neck out and is suggesting that LAB’s organisational strength will see it home.
Comments
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Thirst.
Labour will win in Stoke.
Darned it, I've gone and cursed them.
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0:09 - Buy to let paradise.0
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Snell in 2014 "We will have to look at why Labour voters are turning to Ukip."
Snell post referendum "patriotism is a competition won by seeing who is the most inward looking”0 -
Ukip know their voters this time. They will have a big bank of emails etc from the Leave.EU campaign they had a competition which was a data bank. I'm not sure if they are allowed to use this but ukip have a history of ignoring the rules.
Prediction: Labour loss.0 -
Stoke's being talked of as a two horse race, but don't the Lib Dems stand a chance?0
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Evening all
Stoke seems to be assuming a greater importance than Copeland. I have the sense that the Conservatives are concentrating on Copeland while the LDs work Stoke harder.
Is it possible Labour could lose both seats ? Maybe. Could they lose one ? Maybe. Could they hold both ? Maybe.
Will I go through the card at Fontwell tomorrow ? Probably not.0 -
Brave, very brave. Two posts down from yours Mr. Jessup is predicting a Labour win.nunu said:Ukip know their voters this time. They will have a big bank of emails etc from the Leave.EU campaign they had a competition which was a data bank. I'm not sure if they are allowed to use this but ukip have a history of ignoring the rules.
Prediction: Labour loss.0 -
Surely they'll have a bar chart for this.Morris_Dancer said:Stoke's being talked of as a two horse race, but don't the Lib Dems stand a chance?
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Morris_Dancer said:
Stoke's being talked of as a two horse race, but don't the Lib Dems stand a chance?
But UKIP are totally crap at the basics of elections which is why that NEVER in its history has it won a Westminster seat except with defector incumbents. There is nothing to suggest that they've changed.nunu said:Ukip know their voters this time. They will have a big bank of emails etc from the Leave.EU campaign they had a competition which was a data bank. I'm not sure if they are allowed to use this but ukip have a history of ignoring the rules.
Prediction: Labour loss.
Even if they have some data they need the expertise to utilise it. Also having a scouser as candidate is a negative.
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My experience of Vote Leave is that the campaign was not at all well-organised on the ground, and that very little effort went into organising postal votes (of course, the situation may have been different elsewhere).0
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Snell lost to UKIP in 2014, would be funny if history repeated itself. I see that Sod off and go back to where you came from is still acceptable reply from Snell.
However, Master Farron will have to up his game if this video is anything to go by. Haul him in for media training.
https://twitter.com/lesbonner/status/8312051170052833280 -
As a serious bettor, you should be aware that UKIP have never been this short a price to win a by election and not won it. It is quite absurd, as an informed gambler, to take the evidence of such a tiny sample (by elections since 2010) seriously ( I dont take the fact that they are 2/2 when odds on seriously) Apart from the ones won by defectors, UKIP should never have stood a chance in any of them, there haven't been any favourable conditions, until now.MikeSmithson said:Morris_Dancer said:Stoke's being talked of as a two horse race, but don't the Lib Dems stand a chance?
But UKIP are totally crap at the basics of elections which is why that NEVER in its history has it won a Westminster seat except with defector incumbents. There is nothing to suggest that they've changed.nunu said:Ukip know their voters this time. They will have a big bank of emails etc from the Leave.EU campaign they had a competition which was a data bank. I'm not sure if they are allowed to use this but ukip have a history of ignoring the rules.
Prediction: Labour loss.
Even if they have some data they need the expertise to utilise it. Also having a scouser as candidate is a negative.
I seem to remember you didn't fancy Carswell or Reckless either!0 -
Pah, I didn't wait for pesky things like evidence or journalism to call it for Labour, I went with my gut - it has a 50% success rate in the big contests the last few years,0
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UKIP are starting from a much higher base than in Eastleigh or Heywood and Middleton. Having nearly a quarter of the vote already, compared to effectively starting from nothing is a big head start for UKIP.0
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I only saw it from the outside of course, by round my way they seemed very organised at other aspects - despite being a LD dominant town VoteLeave activists swarmed the centre on election day, and around 5pm on the day I saw several volunteers in their 20s knocking round doos in my estate to encourage people (I presume).Sean_F said:My experience of Vote Leave is that the campaign was not at all well-organised on the ground.
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To make a horseracing analogy, it is like judging a horse that only ever runs to form on a certain type of going and at one particular distance on the average of its performances on all different types of ground, surfaces and distances.isam said:
As a serious bettor, you should be aware that UKIP have never been this short a price to win a by election and not won it. It is quite absurd, as an informed gambler, to take the evidence of such a tiny sample (by elections since 2010) seriously ( I dont take the fact that they are 2/2 when odds on seriously) Apart from the ones won by defectors, UKIP should never have stood a chance in any of them, there haven't been any favourable conditions, until now.MikeSmithson said:Morris_Dancer said:Stoke's being talked of as a two horse race, but don't the Lib Dems stand a chance?
But UKIP are totally crap at the basics of elections which is why that NEVER in its history has it won a Westminster seat except with defector incumbents. There is nothing to suggest that they've changed.nunu said:Ukip know their voters this time. They will have a big bank of emails etc from the Leave.EU campaign they had a competition which was a data bank. I'm not sure if they are allowed to use this but ukip have a history of ignoring the rules.
Prediction: Labour loss.
Even if they have some data they need the expertise to utilise it. Also having a scouser as candidate is a negative.
I seem to remember you didn't fancy Carswell or Reckless either!0 -
I feel like the Tories have a small chance to come through the middle or even a shock lib dem win as well as ukip having a good shot but Snell is just crap his words will haunt him. He already lost once to ukip in 2014 (labour did well that year in locals didn't they) and doesn't seem to have learnt his lesson. What is more he has zero charisma.HurstLlama said:
Brave, very brave. Two posts down from yours Mr. Jessup is predicting a Labour win.nunu said:Ukip know their voters this time. They will have a big bank of emails etc from the Leave.EU campaign they had a competition which was a data bank. I'm not sure if they are allowed to use this but ukip have a history of ignoring the rules.
Prediction: Labour loss.
On the other hand ukip chose an outsider when many people were already unhappy about Hunt being an outsider. So..........0 -
Plainly, it was better-organised where you are. We did get Luton 100% leafletted, and there were street stalls, but there was no other form of campaigning.kle4 said:
I only saw it from the outside of course, by round my way they seemed very organised at other aspects - despite being a LD dominant town VoteLeave activists swarmed the centre on election day, and around 5pm on the day I saw several volunteers in their 20s knocking round doos in my estate to encourage people (I presume).Sean_F said:My experience of Vote Leave is that the campaign was not at all well-organised on the ground.
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Well they are getting 30% swings....Only SNP has achieved that recently. So if turnout is below 35% I would say yes a good chance.Morris_Dancer said:Stoke's being talked of as a two horse race, but don't the Lib Dems stand a chance?
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nunu said:
Well they are getting 30% swings....Only SNP has achieved that recently. So if turnout is below 35% I would say yes a good chance.Morris_Dancer said:Stoke's being talked of as a two horse race, but don't the Lib Dems stand a chance?
In locals. They'd need even bigger swings than Richmond. Would be fun though - with Tories and May polling so high, and Bregret not having kicked in, it would really confuse the political establishment.nunu said:
Well they are getting 30% swingsMorris_Dancer said:Stoke's being talked of as a two horse race, but don't the Lib Dems stand a chance?
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http://motherboard.vice.com/read/big-data-cambridge-analytica-brexit-trumpMikeSmithson said:Morris_Dancer said:Stoke's being talked of as a two horse race, but don't the Lib Dems stand a chance?
But UKIP are totally crap at the basics of elections which is why that NEVER in its history has it won a Westminster seat except with defector incumbents. There is nothing to suggest that they've changed.nunu said:Ukip know their voters this time. They will have a big bank of emails etc from the Leave.EU campaign they had a competition which was a data bank. I'm not sure if they are allowed to use this but ukip have a history of ignoring the rules.
Prediction: Labour loss.
Even if they have some data they need the expertise to utilise it. Also having a scouser as candidate is a negative.0 -
I think I was cursing Labour with a prediction.HurstLlama said:
Brave, very brave. Two posts down from yours Mr. Jessup is predicting a Labour win.nunu said:Ukip know their voters this time. They will have a big bank of emails etc from the Leave.EU campaign they had a competition which was a data bank. I'm not sure if they are allowed to use this but ukip have a history of ignoring the rules.
Prediction: Labour loss.
The vast majority of by-elections are holds for the current party. Since 2010 there have only been five by-elections (I think) where the party has changed, and two of those were the Con-UKIP defectors. Corby, Bradford West and Richmond Park are very much a special exception.
That's three out of ?30-odd? by-elections where the constituency party changed. You have to ask whether the circumstances now are special enough to buck the trend. I can't see that it is, in Stoke at least.
(Might be wrong on exact numbers).0 -
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I was Vote Leave in my town. And did everything myself.Sean_F said:My experience of Vote Leave is that the campaign was not at all well-organised on the ground, and that very little effort went into organising postal votes (of course, the situation may have been different elsewhere).
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Truncating the x-axis to start at a peak is equally misleading if you're trying to make the case for a 'secular' trend.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
I'm going for a Labour win in Stoke - certainly betting on it - and a Tory win in Copeland. Edit - feel a bit more confident on Stoke than Copeland.
Also... I know how much many on this site enjoy comparisons to the Romans so perhaps they will enjoy this from Paul Krugman:
https://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/12/19/opinion/how-republics-end.html?WT.mc_id=2016-KWP-MOBILE-INTL_AUD_DEV&WT.mc_ev=click&ad-keywords=IntlAudDev&kwp_0=301453&kwp_4=1162608&kwp_1=530200&_r=0&referer=0 -
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Maybe Labour would rather lose than appeal to the sorts of people who might otherwise be tempted by UKIP.SeanT said:If this video goes viral in Stoke then Labour will lose.
https://order-order.com/2017/02/13/paul-mason-ukip-voters-are-bike-nicking-toe-rags/
It's the only way to explain the behaviour and selection of Snell, as well as some of their key campaigners.0 -
Oh my. Mason seems deeply confused. UKIP voters are a) the bloke who nicks your bike and b) not poor, driving around in SUV or similar and in work, obsessed with black people's clothes.SeanT said:If this video goes viral in Stoke then Labour will lose.
https://order-order.com/2017/02/13/paul-mason-ukip-voters-are-bike-nicking-toe-rags/
Why would man b) be interested in nicking my bike?0 -
A quick look at the local stoke rag on the web, not really any coverage of all the stuff we have covered on here, in fact very limited coverage full stop.0
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" Trumpoids who tried to shot me "SeanT said:If this video goes viral in Stoke then Labour will lose.
https://order-order.com/2017/02/13/paul-mason-ukip-voters-are-bike-nicking-toe-rags/
Mason is a very ill paranoid schizophrenic. He genuinely needs help. Seriously.0 -
If UKIP can't win here and now, with their leader standing, they can't win anywhere. For all our sakes, they need to pull this off. That all said, Mike is right - they are hopeless at elections, as a rule.0
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I smiled at the idea of UKIP canvassers needing "house training", does canvassing actually change voters minds or simply motivate the decideds to actually vote?0
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I assume all those Trumpers and PBers exercised by Hillary Clinton's email servers have been rending their garments today?Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/christinawilkie/status/8311798632141414430 -
That's a great article. It backs up what I said after the last GE: the Conservatives harnessed the best of the current tech back then. If the other parties want to compete in 2020 then they don't just want to catch up to the techniques the Conservatives used in 2015; they'll need to spend a fantastic amount on the then-current tech.Jonathan said:
http://motherboard.vice.com/read/big-data-cambridge-analytica-brexit-trumpMikeSmithson said:Morris_Dancer said:Stoke's being talked of as a two horse race, but don't the Lib Dems stand a chance?
But UKIP are totally crap at the basics of elections which is why that NEVER in its history has it won a Westminster seat except with defector incumbents. There is nothing to suggest that they've changed.nunu said:Ukip know their voters this time. They will have a big bank of emails etc from the Leave.EU campaign they had a competition which was a data bank. I'm not sure if they are allowed to use this but ukip have a history of ignoring the rules.
Prediction: Labour loss.
Even if they have some data they need the expertise to utilise it. Also having a scouser as candidate is a negative.
Fake News is part and parcel of this.
Privacy is also a significant issue. It's one of the reasons I don't have a store card and like cash.
(Though for various reasons I'm sceptical about Cambridge Analytica's precise claims.)0 -
Poster/billboard count from someone up in Stoke yesterday . Up a bit on last week but still very low numbers .
Labour 28
Lib Dem 16
UKIP 1
Conservative 10 -
You canvass to identify your base and get them to vote on polling day, or do a postal vote. It can make a difference of 1,000-2,000 votes in your column, done thoroughly.swing_voter said:I smiled at the idea of UKIP canvassers needing "house training", does canvassing actually change voters minds or simply motivate the decideds to actually vote?
Very, very few votes are won on the doorstep. If they are, it's almost always by the candidate himself or herself.0 -
Only one person on the ballot paper fighting against a hard Brexit ^_~dr_spyn said:Snell lost to UKIP in 2014, would be funny if history repeated itself. I see that Sod off and go back to where you came from is still acceptable reply from Snell.
However, Master Farron will have to up his game if this video is anything to go by. Haul him in for media training.
https://twitter.com/lesbonner/status/8312051170052833280 -
Which LD dominant town, might I ask?kle4 said:
I only saw it from the outside of course, by round my way they seemed very organised at other aspects - despite being a LD dominant town VoteLeave activists swarmed the centre on election day, and around 5pm on the day I saw several volunteers in their 20s knocking round doos in my estate to encourage people (I presume).Sean_F said:My experience of Vote Leave is that the campaign was not at all well-organised on the ground.
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Trowbridge, Wiltshire.Essexit said:
Which LD dominant town, might I ask?kle4 said:
I only saw it from the outside of course, by round my way they seemed very organised at other aspects - despite being a LD dominant town VoteLeave activists swarmed the centre on election day, and around 5pm on the day I saw several volunteers in their 20s knocking round doos in my estate to encourage people (I presume).Sean_F said:My experience of Vote Leave is that the campaign was not at all well-organised on the ground.
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This is up there with HRC's "deplorables" comment.SeanT said:If this video goes viral in Stoke then Labour will lose.
https://order-order.com/2017/02/13/paul-mason-ukip-voters-are-bike-nicking-toe-rags/
It's elementary politics - criticise your opponent's policies by all means, criticise your opponent's personal qualifications and political record by all means but you must never be critical of those intending to vote for your opponent.
It's a democracy - it's not a question of right or wrong. People have a right to make up their own minds and have their own opinions. That doesn't mean you can't argue or challenge the opinions and try to convince them to your way of thinking - that's the political process.
Ultimately, it's a person's right to disagree with you - that doesn't make them bad or wrong or evil or stupid - it's simply they don't see the issues as you do and have reached different conclusions to you. There may be all manner of reasons for that - that's irrelevant.
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I am very sorry Mike but the video is by a person who came to Stoke with a clear view in his mind and the video confirms it. Amazingly the Conservatives are never mentioned. A very poor effort, some are now saying the Lib dems have caught UKIP up and only have Labour in front of them. He also fails to mention UKIPs falling support since 2015. Does this young man know what he is talking about? It is not what seems to be happening on the ground..
Stephen Bush is more to the mark but again this ignores the Lib Dems who at the moment seem to be coming, coming. They too have a very good ground organization.
Overall Labour are favourite will UKIP even come second?
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Thanks. Always interesting to know how the campaign was in other parts of the country.kle4 said:
Trowbridge, Wiltshire.Essexit said:
Which LD dominant town, might I ask?kle4 said:
I only saw it from the outside of course, by round my way they seemed very organised at other aspects - despite being a LD dominant town VoteLeave activists swarmed the centre on election day, and around 5pm on the day I saw several volunteers in their 20s knocking round doos in my estate to encourage people (I presume).Sean_F said:My experience of Vote Leave is that the campaign was not at all well-organised on the ground.
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Who are these 'some' who are saying the LibDems have caught up? It wouldn't be the LibDems by any chance?theakes said:I am very sorry Mike but the video is by a person who came to Stoke with a clear view in his mind and the video confirms it. Amazingly the Conservatives are never mentioned. A very poor effort, some are now saying the Lib dems have caught UKIP up and only have Labour in front of them. He also fails to mention UKIPs falling support since 2015. Does this young man know what he is talking about? It is not what seems to be happening on the ground..
Stephen Bush is more to the mark but again this ignores the Lib Dems who at the moment seem to be coming, coming. They too have a very good ground organization.
Overall Labour are favourite will UKIP even come second?0 -
Not quite in HRC's league, as Paul Mason isn't a leading MP or even candidate.stodge said:
This is up there with HRC's "deplorables" comment.SeanT said:If this video goes viral in Stoke then Labour will lose.
https://order-order.com/2017/02/13/paul-mason-ukip-voters-are-bike-nicking-toe-rags/
It's elementary politics - criticise your opponent's policies by all means, criticise your opponent's personal qualifications and political record by all means but you must never be critical of those intending to vote for your opponent.
It's a democracy - it's not a question of right or wrong. People have a right to make up their own minds and have their own opinions. That doesn't mean you can't argue or challenge the opinions and try to convince them to your way of thinking - that's the political process.
Ultimately, it's a person's right to disagree with you - that doesn't make them bad or wrong or evil or stupid - it's simply they don't see the issues as you do and have reached different conclusions to you. There may be all manner of reasons for that - that's irrelevant.
Yet...0 -
Tudor Rose : the Lib Dems have done a lot of canvassing. You know the spot on accuracy of their returns at Richmond. Caught up - if it is right only with UKIP and the Cons not Labour, yet.
Mike did you read yesterdays Guardian report, why not show that on this site?0 -
Jobabob said:
If UKIP can't win here and now, with their leader standing, they can't win anywhere. For all our sakes, they need to pull this off. That all said, Mike is right - they are hopeless at elections, as a rule.
As well as being disorganized another factor in their poor election record is that they polarize opposition against them. Not clear that will happen in Stoke as the opposition looks very fractured.0 -
To be fair, Mason isn't the candidate, or even a Labour politician, so cant they just shrug it off?stodge said:
This is up there with HRC's "deplorables" comment.SeanT said:If this video goes viral in Stoke then Labour will lose.
https://order-order.com/2017/02/13/paul-mason-ukip-voters-are-bike-nicking-toe-rags/
It's elementary politics - criticise your opponent's policies by all means, criticise your opponent's personal qualifications and political record by all means but you must never be critical of those intending to vote for your opponent.
It's a democracy - it's not a question of right or wrong. People have a right to make up their own minds and have their own opinions. That doesn't mean you can't argue or challenge the opinions and try to convince them to your way of thinking - that's the political process.
Ultimately, it's a person's right to disagree with you - that doesn't make them bad or wrong or evil or stupid - it's simply they don't see the issues as you do and have reached different conclusions to you. There may be all manner of reasons for that - that's irrelevant.0 -
Their world has been turned upside down, and they are panickingSeanT said:
Indeed. It's like Matthew Parris describing all Leave voters - ALL 17m of them - as "racist".Casino_Royale said:
Maybe Labour would rather lose than appeal to the sorts of people who might otherwise be tempted by UKIP.SeanT said:If this video goes viral in Stoke then Labour will lose.
https://order-order.com/2017/02/13/paul-mason-ukip-voters-are-bike-nicking-toe-rags/
It's the only way to explain the behaviour and selection of Snell, as well as some of their key campaigners.
Brexit has revealed an incredibly unappealing side to the Establishment, on both the Left and the Right. Just complete contempt, bordering on hatred, for ordinary people. And total, sneering disregard for their concerns.0 -
Wow... Just wow... Can that seriously be true!?TheScreamingEagles said:
I assume all those Trumpers and PBers exercised by Hillary Clinton's email servers have been rending their garments today?Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/christinawilkie/status/831179863214141443
I never cease to be amazed by the levels of hypocrisy Republicans reach...
In a strange way I don't blame Trump... This is who he is.
But how can republican politicians look themselves in the mirror after this....0 -
Generally agreed - however note that Williams is no longer a Corbyn supporter. She is one of many lefties to bin him.SeanT said:
He was flanked by Corbynite journalist Zoe Williams, and at the same event he told the audience he was going to Stoke to campaign for Labour.isam said:
To be fair, Mason isn't the candidate, or even a Labour politician, so cant they just shrug it off?stodge said:
This is up there with HRC's "deplorables" comment.SeanT said:If this video goes viral in Stoke then Labour will lose.
https://order-order.com/2017/02/13/paul-mason-ukip-voters-are-bike-nicking-toe-rags/
It's elementary politics - criticise your opponent's policies by all means, criticise your opponent's personal qualifications and political record by all means but you must never be critical of those intending to vote for your opponent.
It's a democracy - it's not a question of right or wrong. People have a right to make up their own minds and have their own opinions. That doesn't mean you can't argue or challenge the opinions and try to convince them to your way of thinking - that's the political process.
Ultimately, it's a person's right to disagree with you - that doesn't make them bad or wrong or evil or stupid - it's simply they don't see the issues as you do and have reached different conclusions to you. There may be all manner of reasons for that - that's irrelevant.
Difficult to shrug THAT off. If I was a UKIP voter in Stoke I'd be tempted to punch his fucking stupid face. Then nick his bike.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/26/jeremy-corbyn-labour-remain-election?client=safari0 -
He says he's free to tell the truth now. I don't think he can really have fit in well with actual news organisations.SeanT said:
It's an indescribably stupid, offensive and abusive remark. And this guy was a BBC journalist.stodge said:
This is up there with HRC's "deplorables" comment.SeanT said:If this video goes viral in Stoke then Labour will lose.
https://order-order.com/2017/02/13/paul-mason-ukip-voters-are-bike-nicking-toe-rags/
It's elementary politics - criticise your opponent's policies by all means, criticise your opponent's personal qualifications and political record by all means but you must never be critical of those intending to vote for your opponent.
It's a democracy - it's not a question of right or wrong. People have a right to make up their own minds and have their own opinions. That doesn't mean you can't argue or challenge the opinions and try to convince them to your way of thinking - that's the political process.
Ultimately, it's a person's right to disagree with you - that doesn't make them bad or wrong or evil or stupid - it's simply they don't see the issues as you do and have reached different conclusions to you. There may be all manner of reasons for that - that's irrelevant.
Poor stuff indeed.TheScreamingEagles said:
I assume all those Trumpers and PBers exercised by Hillary Clinton's email servers have been rending their garments today?Scott_P said:
hts://twitter.com/christinawilkie/status/8311798632141414430 -
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I assume on the basis Sturgeon is young and rock solid in position so any other SNP person known now may well fade by the time she lets go in, what, a decade, and the only other scenario is a seismic event that turns the world on its head, and Davidson is the most likely beneficiary in such a scenario, being the strongest non-SNP figure.Scott_P said:hts://twitter.com/ladpolitics/status/831230318405361665
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Something witty about a double post.
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Shadsy is offering 5/1 on Corbyn as next PM, which tells you how unlikely Ruth Davidson is to be the next First Minister.Scott_P said:0 -
We are all
Toriesbike thieves now....0 -
Oh! Well he shouldnt open with that line when door knocking!SeanT said:
He was flanked by Corbynite journalist Zoe Williams, and at the same event he told the audience he was going to Stoke to campaign for Labour.isam said:
To be fair, Mason isn't the candidate, or even a Labour politician, so cant they just shrug it off?stodge said:
This is up there with HRC's "deplorables" comment.SeanT said:If this video goes viral in Stoke then Labour will lose.
https://order-order.com/2017/02/13/paul-mason-ukip-voters-are-bike-nicking-toe-rags/
It's elementary politics - criticise your opponent's policies by all means, criticise your opponent's personal qualifications and political record by all means but you must never be critical of those intending to vote for your opponent.
It's a democracy - it's not a question of right or wrong. People have a right to make up their own minds and have their own opinions. That doesn't mean you can't argue or challenge the opinions and try to convince them to your way of thinking - that's the political process.
Ultimately, it's a person's right to disagree with you - that doesn't make them bad or wrong or evil or stupid - it's simply they don't see the issues as you do and have reached different conclusions to you. There may be all manner of reasons for that - that's irrelevant.
Difficult to shrug THAT off. If I was a UKIP voter in Stoke I'd be tempted to punch his fucking stupid face. Then nick his bike.0 -
LOLTheScreamingEagles said:
Shadsy is offering 5/1 on Corbyn as next PM, which tells you how unlikely Ruth Davidson is to be the next First Minister.Scott_P said:0 -
Hosie or Yousaf might be value, but its an incomplete book. (They are both 5-2 next SNP leader with Paddy - take this bet rather than that one if you fancy their chances for that)TheScreamingEagles said:
Shadsy is offering 5/1 on Corbyn as next PM, which tells you how unlikely Ruth Davidson is unlikely to be the next First Minister.Scott_P said:
I'd lay Davidson, Black, Robison, Robertson, Mackay, Matheson at those odds if the market was up on Betfair.
33s for Dugdale may well be a fair price (And around 20s for Davidson maybe), and Salmond is the one SNP westminster MP who could head back to be FM, though 20-1 is probably too short.0 -
I wouldn't be playing this market, within the next five years we could have had anPulpstar said:
Hosie or Yousaf might be value, but its an incomplete book. (They are both 5-2 next SNP leader with Paddy - take this bet rather than that one if you fancy their chances for that)TheScreamingEagles said:
Shadsy is offering 5/1 on Corbyn as next PM, which tells you how unlikely Ruth Davidson is unlikely to be the next First Minister.Scott_P said:
I'd lay Davidson, Black, Robison, Robertson, Mackay, Matheson at those odds if the market was up on Betfair.
33s for Dugdale may well be a fair price (And around 20s for Davidson maybe), and Salmond is the one SNP westminster MP who could head back to be FM, though 20-1 is probably too short.
1) Another Indyref
and
2) Scotland votes for/becomes an Independent country.
Both of those are game changers.
I mean Scottish politics didn't change much after the first indyref?0 -
isam said:
T.....SeanT said:
.....r concerns.Casino_Royale said:
Maybe Labour would rather lose than appeal to the sorts of people who might otherwise be tempted by UKIP.SeanT said:If this video goes viral in Stoke then Labour will lose.
https://order-order.com/2017/02/13/paul-mason-ukip-voters-are-bike-nicking-toe-rags/
It's the only way to explain the behaviour and selection of Snell, as well as some of their key campaigners.
Unless you are the candidate, converting people is not productive, counter productive even. It is purely about finding out who your voters are and then getting them to actually turn up to vote on polling day. It is nonetheless a useful activity to find out what voters think, as long as you don't spend too much time on the doorstep talking to people.Casino_Royale said:
You canvass to identify your base and get them to vote on polling day, or do a postal vote. It can make a difference of 1,000-2,000 votes in your column, done thoroughly.swing_voter said:I smiled at the idea of UKIP canvassers needing "house training", does canvassing actually change voters minds or simply motivate the decideds to actually vote?
Very, very few votes are won on the doorstep. If they are, it's almost always by the candidate himself or herself.
For what its worth I think the absence of a remain GOTV operation was a major factor in the referendum result. There was no voter data from Stronger In, and the Labour In data was almost totally unreliable - guesswork from some algorhythm on a computer system at head office. On election day we were knocking on random doors with an even split of preferences between leave and remain, the effect of the work being in some cases simply reminding people to vote leave. The absence of co-ordination between the two campaigns meant almost no information was being shared. As a result there were 'labour in' people knocking on totally random doors and Stronger in people handing out crap patronising propoganda in the town centre. I'm pretty sure it had almost no effect on the referendum result and was almost as bad as the leave campaign, who also had no data and did nothing except for stand around lecturing people in the town centre and of course, turn up to grandstand at the count.
Had there been an effective, joined up stronger in campaign locally and nationally then remain could have got the won the referendum. It was basically the labour leaderships reluctance to agree to any co-ordination between the campaigns that lost it.0 -
As I've said I'm not playing, its the sort of market you want to lay/be the bookie in as it is ages away (probably) and incomplete. A bit like the Labour leadership !TheScreamingEagles said:
I wouldn't be playing this market, within the next five years we could have had anPulpstar said:
Hosie or Yousaf might be value, but its an incomplete book. (They are both 5-2 next SNP leader with Paddy - take this bet rather than that one if you fancy their chances for that)TheScreamingEagles said:
Shadsy is offering 5/1 on Corbyn as next PM, which tells you how unlikely Ruth Davidson is unlikely to be the next First Minister.Scott_P said:
I'd lay Davidson, Black, Robison, Robertson, Mackay, Matheson at those odds if the market was up on Betfair.
33s for Dugdale may well be a fair price (And around 20s for Davidson maybe), and Salmond is the one SNP westminster MP who could head back to be FM, though 20-1 is probably too short.
1) Another Indyref
and
2) Scotland votes for/becomes an Independent country.
Both of those are game changers.
I mean Scottish politics didn't change much after the first indyref?
That said if you held a gun to my head I'd say the 12-1 on Yousaf is fair enough.0 -
we were leafletting the day before.....and not even leaflets say remember vote tommorow just non targetted generic leafletsCasino_Royale said:
I was Vote Leave in my town. And did everything myself.Sean_F said:My experience of Vote Leave is that the campaign was not at all well-organised on the ground, and that very little effort went into organising postal votes (of course, the situation may have been different elsewhere).
0 -
As a Conservative supporter I think I'd rather lose than have to appeal to the sort of people that are still tempted by UKIP now that Brexit is won?Casino_Royale said:
Maybe Labour would rather lose than appeal to the sorts of people who might otherwise be tempted by UKIP.SeanT said:If this video goes viral in Stoke then Labour will lose.
https://order-order.com/2017/02/13/paul-mason-ukip-voters-are-bike-nicking-toe-rags/
It's the only way to explain the behaviour and selection of Snell, as well as some of their key campaigners.
What would be your motivation? Nothing particularly palatable. And that isn't accusing all Leavers/Kippers of racism before anybody starts squeaking, just pointing out that we're leaving the EU now, sovereignty is regained, the battle is won. Anything further immigration wise starts to really look BNP lite and those aren't people I'd like on my side in the ballot booth.
0 -
Yes it's not clear what value Mason adds to the debate, or to Corbyn's fortunes. Indeed, Mason himself has been critical of Corbyn, albeit recorded by a passing hack when having a few beers with his mate.SeanT said:
You're right on Williams of course. Does Corbyn have any high profile supporters left? Monbiot has dumped him, also Owen Jones (I think). Are there any others?Jobabob said:
Generally agreed - however note that Williams is no longer a Corbyn supporter. She is one of many lefties to bin him.SeanT said:
He was flanked by Corbynite journalist Zoe Williams, and at the same event he told the audience he was going to Stoke to campaign for Labour.isam said:
To be fair, Mason isn't the candidate, or even a Labour politician, so cant they just shrug it off?stodge said:
This is up there with HRC's "deplorables" comment.SeanT said:If this video goes viral in Stoke then Labour will lose.
https://order-order.com/2017/02/13/paul-mason-ukip-voters-are-bike-nicking-toe-rags/
It's elementary politics - criticise your opponent's policies by all means, criticise your opponent's personal qualifications and political record by all means but you must never be critical of those intending to vote for your opponent.
It's a democracy - it's not a question of right or wrong. People have a right to make up their own minds and have their own opinions. That doesn't mean you can't argue or challenge the opinions and try to convince them to your way of thinking - that's the political process.
Ultimately, it's a person's right to disagree with you - that doesn't make them bad or wrong or evil or stupid - it's simply they don't see the issues as you do and have reached different conclusions to you. There may be all manner of reasons for that - that's irrelevant.
Difficult to shrug THAT off. If I was a UKIP voter in Stoke I'd be tempted to punch his fucking stupid face. Then nick his bike.
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/26/jeremy-corbyn-labour-remain-election?client=safari
As for Mason, what I don't understand is how he thinks these comments can possibly help his cause. He's not an idiot. So what is he doing? Is there some Corbynite plan to destroy the Labour party as we know it, then remake it as a purer, hard left force?
Or maybe he is just a massive idiot. Who knows.
Not sure if there are many loyalist left.
https://www.politicshome.com/news/uk/political-parties/labour-party/news/79840/jeremy-corbyn-supporter-paul-mason-says-labour0 -
She can deny it until the next general election/Scottish Parliamentary elections.SeanT said:
The big question is will TMay allow an indyref before Brexit is done. I don't see how she can, politically, legally, diplomatically, even emotionally: it will fuck her UK Brexit negotiations and throw everything into further chaos, cubed.TheScreamingEagles said:
I wouldn't be playing this market, within the next five years we could have had anPulpstar said:
Hosie or Yousaf might be value, but its an incomplete book. (They are both 5-2 next SNP leader with Paddy - take this bet rather than that one if you fancy their chances for that)TheScreamingEagles said:
Shadsy is offering 5/1 on Corbyn as next PM, which tells you how unlikely Ruth Davidson is unlikely to be the next First Minister.Scott_P said:
I'd lay Davidson, Black, Robison, Robertson, Mackay, Matheson at those odds if the market was up on Betfair.
33s for Dugdale may well be a fair price (And around 20s for Davidson maybe), and Salmond is the one SNP westminster MP who could head back to be FM, though 20-1 is probably too short.
1) Another Indyref
and
2) Scotland votes for/becomes an Independent country.
Both of those are game changers.
I mean Scottish politics didn't change much after the first indyref?
But how does TMay prevent an indyref til Brexit is complete without looking horribly undemocratic and thus helping Sturgeon win her eventual vote in, say, the early 2020s?
They must be pondering this in Westminster.
On the other hand she would have the polls on her side. Only 27% of Scots want a new indyref prior to Brexit being done and dusted.
When the SNP put it in their manifesto to hold another Indyref.0 -
Paul Mason has completely lost it. He totally misunderstands UKIP's appeal. He is making shocking generalisations in this video that simply don't stand up to scrutiny. At least when Nutall made his politically suicidal attacks on the NHS he was engaging in a comparitively sensible debate about the subject.0
-
0
-
"I will be pretty tough [on Brexit]... because we have to preserve the rest of the EU" - French presidential candidate EmmanuelMacronwilliamglenn said:twitter.com/Channel4News/status/831192749529559041
Dumber than a box of rocks.
0 -
A somewhat lesser statoid compared to the 49% who now favour independence, and the 54% who support the SNP. And who would bet on May besting Nicola? Sturgeon is the more accomplished operator, by a Scottish mile.SeanT said:
The big question is will TMay allow an indyref before Brexit is done. I don't see how she can, politically, legally, diplomatically, even emotionally: it will fuck her UK Brexit negotiations and throw everything into further chaos, cubed.TheScreamingEagles said:
I wouldn't be playing this market, within the next five years we could have had anPulpstar said:
Hosie or Yousaf might be value, but its an incomplete book. (They are both 5-2 next SNP leader with Paddy - take this bet rather than that one if you fancy their chances for that)TheScreamingEagles said:
Shadsy is offering 5/1 on Corbyn as next PM, which tells you how unlikely Ruth Davidson is unlikely to be the next First Minister.Scott_P said:
I'd lay Davidson, Black, Robison, Robertson, Mackay, Matheson at those odds if the market was up on Betfair.
33s for Dugdale may well be a fair price (And around 20s for Davidson maybe), and Salmond is the one SNP westminster MP who could head back to be FM, though 20-1 is probably too short.
1) Another Indyref
and
2) Scotland votes for/becomes an Independent country.
Both of those are game changers.
I mean Scottish politics didn't change much after the first indyref?
But how does TMay prevent an indyref til Brexit is complete without looking horribly undemocratic and thus helping Sturgeon win her eventual vote in, say, the early 2020s?
They must be pondering this in Westminster.
On the other hand she would have the polls on her side. Only 27% of Scots want a new indyref prior to Brexit being done and dusted.0 -
I agree with that 12/1.Pulpstar said:
As I've said I'm not playing, its the sort of market you want to lay/be the bookie in as it is ages away (probably) and incomplete. A bit like the Labour leadership !TheScreamingEagles said:
I wouldn't be playing this market, within the next five years we could have had anPulpstar said:
Hosie or Yousaf might be value, but its an incomplete book. (They are both 5-2 next SNP leader with Paddy - take this bet rather than that one if you fancy their chances for that)TheScreamingEagles said:
Shadsy is offering 5/1 on Corbyn as next PM, which tells you how unlikely Ruth Davidson is unlikely to be the next First Minister.Scott_P said:
I'd lay Davidson, Black, Robison, Robertson, Mackay, Matheson at those odds if the market was up on Betfair.
33s for Dugdale may well be a fair price (And around 20s for Davidson maybe), and Salmond is the one SNP westminster MP who could head back to be FM, though 20-1 is probably too short.
1) Another Indyref
and
2) Scotland votes for/becomes an Independent country.
Both of those are game changers.
I mean Scottish politics didn't change much after the first indyref?
That said if you held a gun to my head I'd say the 12-1 on Yousaf is fair enough.0 -
He said nothing inconsistent with what every other mainstream French presidential candidate has said and even May has now recognised ie no single market access or passport rights if Brexit but negotiations on the basis of bilateral conventions and he would protect the rights of British citizens in France. He also said Le Pen would kill the EU if she winswilliamglenn said:0 -
Did anyone watch Tony Blair mark 2(Trudeau) and the Trump news conference.
Trump has world leaders sucking up to him especially the western one's and that includes Trudeau,at least our PM made him say he was 100% behind NATO.0 -
A depressing thought. I just hope we get that far.SeanT said:TheScreamingEagles said:
I wouldn't be playing this market, within the next five years we could have had anPulpstar said:
Hosie or Yousaf might be value, but its an incomplete book. (They are both 5-2 next SNP leader with Paddy - take this bet rather than that one if you fancy their chances for that)TheScreamingEagles said:
Shadsy is offering 5/1 on Corbyn as next PM, which tells you how unlikely Ruth Davidson is unlikely to be the next First Minister.Scott_P said:
I'd lay Davidson, Black, Robison, Robertson, Mackay, Matheson at those odds if the market was up on Betfair.
33s for Dugdale may well be a fair price (And around 20s for Davidson maybe), and Salmond is the one SNP westminster MP who could head back to be FM, though 20-1 is probably too short.
1) Another Indyref
and
2) Scotland votes for/becomes an Independent country.
Both of those are game changers.
I mean Scottish politics didn't change much after the first indyref?
But how does TMay prevent an indyref til Brexit is complete without looking horribly undemocratic and thus helping Sturgeon win her eventual vote in, say, the early 2020s?
0 -
I recently came across this article from Patrick Minford written during Blair's first term where he advocates the UK joining NAFTA. As you'd expect it's horribly dated and contains a number of startling inaccuracies, but this nugget is a fascinating insight into the global Brexiteer mindset:
As for economic policies within NAFTA, there would be no social charter US-style, no tax harmonisation, no worries about being asked to bail-out insolvent partner countries with unaffordable state pensions. True, the EU offers free movement of people and the single market; but there is little migration in Europe and the single market has proved a recipe for excessive regulation. In any case joining NAFTA would not stop us doing what we want with the EU.
http://www.euro-know.org/europages/telegraph/dt990719.html
Far from the present day bogeyman, freedom of movement was seen as something we ought to have more of, and the relative lack of it in practice was seen as a reason to criticise the EU. It's easy to see why Blair made the decision not to impose controls after the 2004 expansion. If the Eurosceptics were intellectually honest, they would say that the fact that so many people chose to move to the UK is evidence that the EU 'works'.0 -
Wondering if Macron provides a model for the UK left.0
-
Yep.nunu said:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lHusZDjesr4
This is getting a bit scary now....
We may be watching the end of American democracy.0 -
Trudeau said he would would respect US voters' decision and maintain the strong bond between the US and Canada but stand up for Canadian values where necessaryTykejohnno said:Did anyone watch Tony Blair mark 2(Trudeau) and the Trump news conference.
Trump has world leaders sucking up to him especially the western one's and that includes Trudeau,at least our PM made him say he was 100% behind NATO.0 -
He never said it she did.Tykejohnno said:Did anyone watch Tony Blair mark 2(Trudeau) and the Trump news conference.
Trump has world leaders sucking up to him especially the western one's and that includes Trudeau,at least our PM made him say he was 100% behind NATO.0 -
Miller has the dead eyes of a mannequin.rkrkrk said:
Yep.nunu said:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lHusZDjesr4
This is getting a bit scary now....
We may be watching the end of American democracy.0 -
SeanT said:
49% was one poll, out of line with all others. Though I accept it is close, nonetheless.
But my point was not about whether YES or NO would win, it's about the politics. I literally can't see how TMay could allow a new indyref when she's in the middle of negotiating Britain's exit from the EU. It's like negotiating a divorce, and carefully dividing the assets, while simultaneously wagering your house on a poker game.
To my mind (I await cleverer people to educate me) it is undo-able, in so many ways.
So she has to find a way to delay it. OR she yields in some way to Sturgeon's demand on the Single Market, without looking weak.
Very very tricky.
Scotland voted to remain part of Britain, and Britain (inc Scotland) voted for Brexit.
Sturgeon has no justification whatsoever for her demand.
Ignore.
0 -
Fuck You SturgeonSeanT said:
The big question is will TMay allow an indyref before Brexit is done. I don't see how she can, politically, legally, diplomatically, even emotionally: it will fuck her UK Brexit negotiations and throw everything into further chaos, cubed.TheScreamingEagles said:
I wouldn't be playing this market, within the next five years we could have had anPulpstar said:
Hosie or Yousaf might be value, but its an incomplete book. (They are both 5-2 next SNP leader with Paddy - take this bet rather than that one if you fancy their chances for that)TheScreamingEagles said:
Shadsy is offering 5/1 on Corbyn as next PM, which tells you how unlikely Ruth Davidson is unlikely to be the next First Minister.Scott_P said:
I'd lay Davidson, Black, Robison, Robertson, Mackay, Matheson at those odds if the market was up on Betfair.
33s for Dugdale may well be a fair price (And around 20s for Davidson maybe), and Salmond is the one SNP westminster MP who could head back to be FM, though 20-1 is probably too short.
1) Another Indyref
and
2) Scotland votes for/becomes an Independent country.
Both of those are game changers.
I mean Scottish politics didn't change much after the first indyref?
But how does TMay prevent an indyref til Brexit is complete without looking horribly undemocratic and thus helping Sturgeon win her eventual vote in, say, the early 2020s?
They must be pondering this in Westminster.
On the other hand she would have the polls on her side. Only 27% of Scots want a new indyref prior to Brexit being done and dusted.
would probably do it0 -
EU Farmers' Unions say politics cannot be allowed to override economics as they lobby for free trade with UK.
https://www.fginsight.com/news/eu-farming-unions-push-for-free-trade-with-the-uk-post-brexit-187130 -
Agreed. They had their referendum in the knowledge this might happen.MarkHopkins said:SeanT said:49% was one poll, out of line with all others. Though I accept it is close, nonetheless.
But my point was not about whether YES or NO would win, it's about the politics. I literally can't see how TMay could allow a new indyref when she's in the middle of negotiating Britain's exit from the EU. It's like negotiating a divorce, and carefully dividing the assets, while simultaneously wagering your house on a poker game.
To my mind (I await cleverer people to educate me) it is undo-able, in so many ways.
So she has to find a way to delay it. OR she yields in some way to Sturgeon's demand on the Single Market, without looking weak.
Very very tricky.
Scotland voted to remain part of Britain, and Britain (inc Scotland) voted for Brexit.
Sturgeon has no justification whatsoever for her demand.
Ignore.
The best thing TM can do to save the union is make a success of Brexit.0 -
Agreed she is a class act best leading politician in the UK by a country mile.Jobabob said:
A somewhat lesser statoid compared to the 49% who now favour independence, and the 54% who support the SNP. And who would bet on May besting Nicola? Sturgeon is the more accomplished operator, by a Scottish mile.SeanT said:
The big question is will TMay allow an indyref before Brexit is done. I don't see how she can, politically, legally, diplomatically, even emotionally: it will fuck her UK Brexit negotiations and throw everything into further chaos, cubed.TheScreamingEagles said:
I wouldn't be playing this market, within the next five years we could have had anPulpstar said:
Hosie or Yousaf might be value, but its an incomplete book. (They are both 5-2 next SNP leader with Paddy - take this bet rather than that one if you fancy their chances for that)TheScreamingEagles said:
Shadsy is offering 5/1 on Corbyn as next PM, which tells you how unlikely Ruth Davidson is unlikely to be the next First Minister.Scott_P said:
I'd lay Davidson, Black, Robison, Robertson, Mackay, Matheson at those odds if the market was up on Betfair.
33s for Dugdale may well be a fair price (And around 20s for Davidson maybe), and Salmond is the one SNP westminster MP who could head back to be FM, though 20-1 is probably too short.
1) Another Indyref
and
2) Scotland votes for/becomes an Independent country.
Both of those are game changers.
I mean Scottish politics didn't change much after the first indyref?
But how does TMay prevent an indyref til Brexit is complete without looking horribly undemocratic and thus helping Sturgeon win her eventual vote in, say, the early 2020s?
They must be pondering this in Westminster.
On the other hand she would have the polls on her side. Only 27% of Scots want a new indyref prior to Brexit being done and dusted.
0 -
I just got my first ever iPhone. Unfortunately the new job requires an iPhone for whatever reason. So far I'm not impressed. I think it will stay in my desk drawer while I'm at home.0
-
In 2014 voters in Scotland were told the only way they'd remain inside the single market was to vote No.MarkHopkins said:SeanT said:49% was one poll, out of line with all others. Though I accept it is close, nonetheless.
But my point was not about whether YES or NO would win, it's about the politics. I literally can't see how TMay could allow a new indyref when she's in the middle of negotiating Britain's exit from the EU. It's like negotiating a divorce, and carefully dividing the assets, while simultaneously wagering your house on a poker game.
To my mind (I await cleverer people to educate me) it is undo-able, in so many ways.
So she has to find a way to delay it. OR she yields in some way to Sturgeon's demand on the Single Market, without looking weak.
Very very tricky.
Scotland voted to remain part of Britain, and Britain (inc Scotland) voted for Brexit.
Sturgeon has no justification whatsoever for her demand.
Ignore.0 -
In Discussions he must have.Yorkcity said:
He never said it she did.Tykejohnno said:Did anyone watch Tony Blair mark 2(Trudeau) and the Trump news conference.
Trump has world leaders sucking up to him especially the western one's and that includes Trudeau,at least our PM made him say he was 100% behind NATO.0 -
That's you off TSE christmas card list.MaxPB said:I just got my first ever iPhone. Unfortunately the new job requires an iPhone for whatever reason. So far I'm not impressed. I think it will stay in my desk drawer while I'm at home.
0 -
You can have Brexit or the UK but not both.
For years the anti Europeans have been screaming that the EU is about politics, not economics, yet they somehow believe that leaving will have no affect on our politics but offer us economic benefits. Their own incoherence blinds them to what is going to unfold.0 -
Yes, it's fascinating politics. Merely the threat fromSeanT said:
49% was one poll, out of line with all others. Though I accept it is close, nonetheless.Jobabob said:
A somewhat lesser statoid compared to the 49% who now favour independence, and the 54% who support the SNP. And who would bet on May besting Nicola? Sturgeon is the more accomplished operator, by a Scottish mile.SeanT said:
The big question is will TMay allow an indyref before Brexit is done. I don't see how she can, politically, legally, diplomatically, even emotionally: it will fuck her UK Brexit negotiations and throw everything into further chaos, cubed.TheScreamingEagles said:
I wouldn't be playing this market, within the next five years we could have had anPulpstar said:
Hosie or Yousaf might be value, but its an incomplete book. (They are both 5-2 next SNP leader with Paddy - take this bet rather than that one if you fancy their chances for that)TheScreamingEagles said:
Shadsy is offering 5/1 on Corbyn as next PM, which tells you how unlikely Ruth Davidson is unlikely to be the next First Minister.Scott_P said:
I'd lay Davidson, Black, Robison, Robertson, Mackay, Matheson at those odds if the market was up on Betfair.
33s for Dugdale may well be a fair price (And around 20s for Davidson maybe), and Salmond is the one SNP westminster MP who could head back to be FM, though 20-1 is probably too short.
1) Another Indyref
and
2) Scotland votes for/becomes an Independent country.
Both of those are game changers.
I mean Scottish politics didn't change much after the first indyref?
But how does TMay prevent an indyref til Brexit is complete without looking horribly undemocratic and thus helping Sturgeon win her eventual vote in, say, the early 2020s?
They must be pondering this in Westminster.
On the other hand she would have the polls on her side. Only 27% of Scots want a new indyref prior to Brexit being done and dusted.
But my point was not about whether YES or NO would win, it's about the politics. I literally can't see how TMay could allow a new indyref when she's in the middle of negotiating Britain's exit from the EU. It's like negotiating a divorce, and carefully dividing the assets, while simultaneously wagering your house on a poker game.
To my mind (I await cleverer people to educate me) it is undo-able, in so many ways.
So she has to find a way to delay it. OR she yields in some way to Sturgeon's demand on the Single Market, without looking weak.
Very very tricky.
Sturgeon will be hard to handle.0 -
They were told oil would be $100 a barrel as well.TheScreamingEagles said:
In 2014 voters in Scotland were told the only way they'd remain inside the single market was to vote No.MarkHopkins said:SeanT said:49% was one poll, out of line with all others. Though I accept it is close, nonetheless.
But my point was not about whether YES or NO would win, it's about the politics. I literally can't see how TMay could allow a new indyref when she's in the middle of negotiating Britain's exit from the EU. It's like negotiating a divorce, and carefully dividing the assets, while simultaneously wagering your house on a poker game.
To my mind (I await cleverer people to educate me) it is undo-able, in so many ways.
So she has to find a way to delay it. OR she yields in some way to Sturgeon's demand on the Single Market, without looking weak.
Very very tricky.
Scotland voted to remain part of Britain, and Britain (inc Scotland) voted for Brexit.
Sturgeon has no justification whatsoever for her demand.
Ignore.
0 -
fucking nat idiotsTheScreamingEagles said:
In 2014 voters in Scotland were told the only way they'd remain inside the single market was to vote No.MarkHopkins said:SeanT said:49% was one poll, out of line with all others. Though I accept it is close, nonetheless.
But my point was not about whether YES or NO would win, it's about the politics. I literally can't see how TMay could allow a new indyref when she's in the middle of negotiating Britain's exit from the EU. It's like negotiating a divorce, and carefully dividing the assets, while simultaneously wagering your house on a poker game.
To my mind (I await cleverer people to educate me) it is undo-able, in so many ways.
So she has to find a way to delay it. OR she yields in some way to Sturgeon's demand on the Single Market, without looking weak.
Very very tricky.
Scotland voted to remain part of Britain, and Britain (inc Scotland) voted for Brexit.
Sturgeon has no justification whatsoever for her demand.
Ignore.
all they had to do was stick £350 million on the side of a bus0
