I just got my first ever iPhone. Unfortunately the new job requires an iPhone for whatever reason. So far I'm not impressed. I think it will stay in my desk drawer while I'm at home.
Unfortunately the new job requires an iPhone for whatever reason.
For years the anti Europeans have been screaming that the EU is about politics, not economics, yet they somehow believe that leaving will have no effect on our politics but offer us economic benefits. Their own incoherence blinds them to what is going to unfold.
You keep repeating this bollocks.
The other day you didn't seem to think that Wales was a nation within the UK.
Shadsy is offering 5/1 on Corbyn as next PM, which tells you how unlikely Ruth Davidson is unlikely to be the next First Minister.
Hosie or Yousaf might be value, but its an incomplete book. (They are both 5-2 next SNP leader with Paddy - take this bet rather than that one if you fancy their chances for that)
I'd lay Davidson, Black, Robison, Robertson, Mackay, Matheson at those odds if the market was up on Betfair.
33s for Dugdale may well be a fair price (And around 20s for Davidson maybe), and Salmond is the one SNP westminster MP who could head back to be FM, though 20-1 is probably too short.
I wouldn't be playing this market, within the next five years we could have had an
1) Another Indyref
and
2) Scotland votes for/becomes an Independent country.
Both of those are game changers.
I mean Scottish politics didn't change much after the first indyref?
The big question is will TMay allow an indyref before Brexit is done. I don't see how she can, politically, legally, diplomatically, even emotionally: it will fuck her UK Brexit negotiations and throw everything into further chaos, cubed.
But how does TMay prevent an indyref til Brexit is complete without looking horribly undemocratic and thus helping Sturgeon win her eventual vote in, say, the early 2020s?
They must be pondering this in Westminster.
On the other hand she would have the polls on her side. Only 27% of Scots want a new indyref prior to Brexit being done and dusted.
A somewhat lesser statoid compared to the 49% who now favour independence, and the 54% who support the SNP. And who would bet on May besting Nicola? Sturgeon is the more accomplished operator, by a Scottish mile.
49% was one poll, out of line with all others. Though I accept it is close, nonetheless. ker game.
To my mind (I await cleverer people to educate me) it is undo-able, in so many ways.
So she has to find a way to delay it. OR she yields in some way to Sturgeon's demand on the Single Market, without looking weak.
Very very tricky.
Yes, it's fascinating politics. Merely the threat from Sturgeon will be hard to handle.
why
shes bluffing with Mr Bun the Baker rather than a handful of aces
49% was one poll, out of line with all others. Though I accept it is close, nonetheless.
But my point was not about whether YES or NO would win, it's about the politics. I literally can't see how TMay could allow a new indyref when she's in the middle of negotiating Britain's exit from the EU. It's like negotiating a divorce, and carefully dividing the assets, while simultaneously wagering your house on a poker game.
To my mind (I await cleverer people to educate me) it is undo-able, in so many ways.
So she has to find a way to delay it. OR she yields in some way to Sturgeon's demand on the Single Market, without looking weak.
Very very tricky.
Scotland voted to remain part of Britain, and Britain (inc Scotland) voted for Brexit.
Sturgeon has no justification whatsoever for her demand.
Ignore.
In 2014 voters in Scotland were told the only way they'd remain inside the single market was to vote No.
Scotland can leave the UK and return to the single market but at the cost of likely duties on Scottish exports to the UK and border controls
49% was one poll, out of line with all others. Though I accept it is close, nonetheless.
But my point was not about whether YES or NO would win, it's about the politics. I literally can't see how TMay could allow a new indyref when she's in the middle of negotiating Britain's exit from the EU. It's like negotiating a divorce, and carefully dividing the assets, while simultaneously wagering your house on a poker game.
To my mind (I await cleverer people to educate me) it is undo-able, in so many ways.
So she has to find a way to delay it. OR she yields in some way to Sturgeon's demand on the Single Market, without looking weak.
Very very tricky.
Scotland voted to remain part of Britain, and Britain (inc Scotland) voted for Brexit.
Sturgeon has no justification whatsoever for her demand.
Ignore.
In 2014 voters in Scotland were told the only way they'd remain inside the single market was to vote No.
The problem May has in placating the SNP is that anti-SNP feelings in England and Wales are on the rise, well at least amongst people I have met that I would expect to understand or sympathise with the SNP. The more Barnett is brought up by people on all sides, the more that feeling increases.
49% was one poll, out of line with all others. Though I accept it is close, nonetheless.
But my point was not about whether YES or NO would win, it's about the politics. I literally can't see how TMay could allow a new indyref when she's in the middle of negotiating Britain's exit from the EU. It's like negotiating a divorce, and carefully dividing the assets, while simultaneously wagering your house on a poker game.
To my mind (I await cleverer people to educate me) it is undo-able, in so many ways.
So she has to find a way to delay it. OR she yields in some way to Sturgeon's demand on the Single Market, without looking weak.
Very very tricky.
Scotland voted to remain part of Britain, and Britain (inc Scotland) voted for Brexit.
Sturgeon has no justification whatsoever for her demand.
Ignore.
In 2014 voters in Scotland were told the only way they'd remain inside the single market was to vote No.
fucking nat idiots
all they had to do was stick £350 million on the side of a bus
For years the anti Europeans have been screaming that the EU is about politics, not economics, yet they somehow believe that leaving will have no affect on our politics but offer us economic benefits. Their own incoherence blinds them to what is going to unfold.
66% of English Leave voters said they were more English than British while 63% of English Remain voters said they were more British than English so I doubt Brexiteers would be that bothered and of course Wales voted Leave anyway. By contrast in Scotland 55% of Remain voters saw themselves as more Scottish than British compared to only 46% of Scottish Leave voters.
49% was one poll, out of line with all others. Though I accept it is close, nonetheless.
But my point was not about whether YES or NO would win, it's about the politics. I literally can't see how TMay could allow a new indyref when she's in the middle of negotiating Britain's exit from the EU. It's like negotiating a divorce, and carefully dividing the assets, while simultaneously wagering your house on a poker game.
To my mind (I await cleverer people to educate me) it is undo-able, in so many ways.
So she has to find a way to delay it. OR she yields in some way to Sturgeon's demand on the Single Market, without looking weak.
Very very tricky.
Scotland voted to remain part of Britain, and Britain (inc Scotland) voted for Brexit.
Sturgeon has no justification whatsoever for her demand.
Ignore.
In 2014 voters in Scotland were told the only way they'd remain inside the single market was to vote No.
fucking nat idiots
all they had to do was stick £350 million on the side of a bus
They are as dumb as the Ulster Scots.
Scots in Ulster are not quite as dumb as actual scots as they had the brains to leave
The Scottish government said its analysis of short-term forecasts of North Sea oil revenue showed that Scotland's potential tax take from oil and gas would equal between £41bn and £57bn by 2017-18, averaging out at £48bn over six years.
Salmond said this would significantly underwrite Scotland's economy, proving that North Sea oil was going from "strength to strength".
It said the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development predicted oil prices could rise above a record level of $150 a barrel by 2020, while the UK government's Department of Energy and Climate Change also predicted rising oil prices.
At the same time, the oil industry was predicting production would rise from 1.4m barrels a day in 2010 to 2m barrels a day by 2017, and had spent £13bn investing in new production. Those figures contradicted gloomier forecasts for the UK government from the Office for Budget Responsibility late last year that said oil prices, now at $110 per barrel, would fall to $92 a barrel by 2017/18.
You would have to be an absolute numpty to believe them ever again.
49% was one poll, out of line with all others. Though I accept it is close, nonetheless.
But my point was not about whether YES or NO would win, it's about the politics. I literally can't see how TMay could allow a new indyref when she's in the middle of negotiating Britain's exit from the EU. It's like negotiating a divorce, and carefully dividing the assets, while simultaneously wagering your house on a poker game.
To my mind (I await cleverer people to educate me) it is undo-able, in so many ways.
So she has to find a way to delay it. OR she yields in some way to Sturgeon's demand on the Single Market, without looking weak.
Very very tricky.
Scotland voted to remain part of Britain, and Britain (inc Scotland) voted for Brexit.
Sturgeon has no justification whatsoever for her demand.
Ignore.
In 2014 voters in Scotland were told the only way they'd remain inside the single market was to vote No.
Scotland can leave the UK and return to the single market but at the cost of likely duties on Scottish exports to the UK and border controls
Shadsy is offering 5/1 on Corbyn as next PM, which tells you how unlikely Ruth Davidson is unlikely to be the next First Minister.
Hosie or Yousaf might be value, but its an incomplete book. (They are both 5-2 next SNP leader with Paddy - take this bet rather than that one if you fancy their chances for that)
I'd lay Davidson, Black, Robison, Robertson, Mackay, Matheson at those odds if the market was up on Betfair.
33s for Dugdale may well be a fair price (And around 20s for Davidson maybe), and Salmond is the one SNP westminster MP who could head back to be FM, though 20-1 is probably too short.
I wouldn't be playing this market, within the next five years we could have had an
1) Another Indyref
and
2) Scotland votes for/becomes an Independent country.
Both of those are game changers.
I mean Scottish politics didn't change much after the first indyref?
The big question is will TMay allow an indyref before Brexit is done. I don't see how she can, politically, legally, diplomatically, even emotionally: it will fuck her UK Brexit negotiations and throw everything into further chaos, cubed.
But how does TMay prevent an indyref til Brexit is complete without looking horribly undemocratic and thus helping Sturgeon win her eventual vote in, say, the early 2020s?
They must be pondering this in Westminster.
On the other hand she would have the polls on her side. Only 27% of Scots want a new indyref prior to Brexit being done and dusted.
A somewhat lesser statoid compared to the 49% who now favour independence, and the 54% who support the SNP. And who would bet on May besting Nicola? Sturgeon is the more accomplished operator, by a Scottish mile.
49% was one poll, out of line with all others. Though I accept it is close, nonetheless. ker game.
To my mind (I await cleverer people to educate me) it is undo-able, in so many ways.
So she has to find a way to delay it. OR she yields in some way to Sturgeon's demand on the Single Market, without looking weak.
Very very tricky.
Yes, it's fascinating politics. Merely the threat from Sturgeon will be hard to handle.
why
shes bluffing with Mr Bun the Baker rather than a handful of aces
May just has to find a way for Sturgeon to climb down without Nicola being humiliated. I don't think it'll be too hard.
So she has to find a way to delay it. OR she yields in some way to Sturgeon's demand on the Single Market, without looking weak.
Very very tricky.
The issue is that Sturgeon has delayed months now already since June 24. Had she called for a second SindyRef prior to Article 50 being invoked I don't see how it could be denied.
However once Article 50 is invoked you just say that it is too soon/complicated to have one immediately. Agree in principle to have a second referendum but set the date for being holding the poll as being afterwards. Potentially to coincide with the 2020 general election.
History is with May here. The SNP secured their mandate for the initial independence referendum in May 2011. In January 2012 the government agreed in principle to holding the independence referendum. The actual referendum wasn't held until September 2014.
The SNP chose to wait over three years between getting their majority and securing the referendum ... and actually holding it. There was well over two years between the UK government agreeing in principle to the referendum and actually holding it.
If Sturgeon waits until after article 50 is invoked and history repeats itself then even comparing her simply demanding it as equivalent to winning a majority with it in your manifesto then time is simply not on her side. There simply isn't the time to wait nearly three years to hold a vote since Article 50 means we'd be exiting in two.
I know have said this before but panorama being 30 mins is bloody stupid. They have a good scoop here, but because it is only 30 mins it is a whistlestop tour with no scratching below the surface.
Shadsy is offering 5/1 on Corbyn as next PM, which tells you how unlikely Ruth Davidson is unlikely to be the next First Minister.
Hosie or Yousaf might be value, but its an incomplete book. (They are both 5-2 next SNP leader with Paddy - take this bet rather than that one if you fancy their chances for that)
I'd lay Davidson, Black, Robison, Robertson, Mackay, Matheson at those odds if the market was up on Betfair.
33s for Dugdale may well be a fair price (And around 20s for Davidson maybe), and Salmond is the one SNP westminster MP who could head back to be FM, though 20-1 is probably too short.
I wouldn't be playing this market, within the next five years we could have had an
1) Another Indyref
and
2) Scotland votes for/becomes an Independent country.
Both of those are game changers.
I mean Scottish politics didn't change much after the first indyref?
The big question is will TMay allow an in win her eventual vote in, say, the early 2020s?
They must be pondering this in Westminster.
On the other hand she would have the polls on her side. Only 27% of Scots want a new indyref prior to Brexit being done and dusted.
A somewhat lesser statoid compared to the 49% who now favour independence, and the 54% who support the SNP. And who would bet on May besting Nicola? Sturgeon is the more accomplished operator, by a Scottish mile.
49% was one poll, out of line with all others. Though I accept it is close, nonetheless. ker game.
To my mind (I await cleverer people to educate me) it is undo-able, in so many ways.
So she has to find a way to delay it. OR she yields in some way to Sturgeon's demand on the Single Market, without looking weak.
Very very tricky.
Yes, it's fascinating politics. Merely the threat from Sturgeon will be hard to handle.
why
shes bluffing with Mr Bun the Baker rather than a handful of aces
May just has to find a way for Sturgeon to climb down without Nicola being humiliated. I don't think it'll be too hard.
49% was one poll, out of line with all others. Though I accept it is close, nonetheless.
But my point was not about whether YES or NO would win, it's about the politics. I literally can't see how TMay could allow a new indyref when she's in the middle of negotiating Britain's exit from the EU. It's like negotiating a divorce, and carefully dividing the assets, while simultaneously wagering your house on a poker game.
To my mind (I await cleverer people to educate me) it is undo-able, in so many ways.
So she has to find a way to delay it. OR she yields in some way to Sturgeon's demand on the Single Market, without looking weak.
Very very tricky.
Scotland voted to remain part of Britain, and Britain (inc Scotland) voted for Brexit.
Sturgeon has no justification whatsoever for her demand.
Ignore.
In 2014 voters in Scotland were told the only way they'd remain inside the single market was to vote No.
Scotland can leave the UK and return to the single market but at the cost of likely duties on Scottish exports to the UK and border controls
Patrol boats on the Tweed AND the Foyle?
Certainly heavy checks on travellers from Ireland to the UK mainland and certainly a tougher border with the Republic yes, if control of free movement is to mean anything it will have to lead to tougher checks on visitors from EEA nations to the UK and an independent Scotland within the EEA would face the same restrictions
You would have to be an absolute numpty to believe them ever again.
Unfortunately when it comes to Nats they either don't care or believe the most ludicrous BS about the Scottish economy. The Nats that have a realistic view of the Scottish economy could fit in a minibus.
49% was one poll, out of line with all others. Though I accept it is close, nonetheless.
But my point was not about whether YES or NO would win, it's about the politics. I literally can't see how TMay could allow a new indyref when she's in the middle of negotiating Britain's exit from the EU. It's like negotiating a divorce, and carefully dividing the assets, while simultaneously wagering your house on a poker game.
To my mind (I await cleverer people to educate me) it is undo-able, in so many ways.
So she has to find a way to delay it. OR she yields in some way to Sturgeon's demand on the Single Market, without looking weak.
Very very tricky.
Scotland voted to remain part of Britain, and Britain (inc Scotland) voted for Brexit.
Sturgeon has no justification whatsoever for her demand.
Ignore.
In 2014 voters in Scotland were told the only way they'd remain inside the single market was to vote No.
Scotland can leave the UK and return to the single market but at the cost of likely duties on Scottish exports to the UK and border controls
Patrol boats on the Tweed AND the Foyle?
I think Yes. There will be some kind of hard border in Ireland, and even harder within the "UK" if Scotland secedes.
It's a necessary corollary of leaving the Single Market. No matter how frictionless or seamless our access, there will be *some* tariffs and NTBs. Which means customs. Guards. A border.
I can't see any alternative, unless the EU is unbelieveably generous and gives us Single Market access and yet restrictions on Free Movement. But even then you'd need police to check the Free Movement.
There would be a frontier at Berwick, just as there is at Dover. They'd try to keep it electronic at Newry, but then police the planes and ferries across the Irish Sea.
You are then implying that you will need a passport to travel from one part of the UK (NIR) to another (ENG)? You are also implying that the border between the two Irelands would be softer (electronic) than that on the River Tweed.
49% was one poll, out of line with all others. Though I accept it is close, nonetheless.
But my point was not about whether YES or NO would win, it's about the politics. I literally can't see how TMay could allow a new indyref when she's in the middle of negotiating Britain's exit from the EU. It's like negotiating a divorce, and carefully dividing the assets, while simultaneously wagering your house on a poker game.
To my mind (I await cleverer people to educate me) it is undo-able, in so many ways.
So she has to find a way to delay it. OR she yields in some way to Sturgeon's demand on the Single Market, without looking weak.
Very very tricky.
Scotland voted to remain part of Britain, and Britain (inc Scotland) voted for Brexit.
Sturgeon has no justification whatsoever for her demand.
Ignore.
In 2014 voters in Scotland were told the only way they'd remain inside the single market was to vote No.
Scotland can leave the UK and return to the single market but at the cost of likely duties on Scottish exports to the UK and border controls
Patrol boats on the Tweed AND the Foyle?
I think Yes. There will be some kind of hard border in Ireland, and even harder within the "UK" if Scotland secedes.
It's a necessary corollary of leaving the Single Market. No matter how frictionless or seamless our access, there will be *some* tariffs and NTBs. Which means customs. Guards. A border.
snip
There would be a frontier at Berwick, just as there is at Dover. They'd try to keep it electronic at Newry, but then police the planes and ferries across the Irish Sea.
You are then implying that you will need a passport to travel from one part of the UK (NIR) to another (ENG)? You are also implying that the border between the two Irelands would be softer (electronic) than that on the River Tweed.
SNIP
So Irish citizens will also need work permits, when we Brexit?
Wondering if Macron provides a model for the UK left.
Macron is a French LD, Hamon and Melenchon are the French left
Wasn't Macron a successful financier with Rothschild in Paris?
I'm struggling to think of any personally successful LibDems.
How about your father ?
He helped bring you into your world which you might deem "personally successful".
The more objective view might be different....
I assume by 'personally successful' he means made a lot of money before politics though of course you can be personally successful in other areas of your life, intellectual, personal life, helping others etc without necessarily being rich
It will be Fillon (who will recover) v Le Pen, and Fillon will win.
An outside chance at the moment is Juppe if Fillon is indicted this week and has to drop out, though in many ways he would be Hilary Clinton/Cameron to Le Pen's Trump/Farage
49% was one poll, out of line with all others. Though I accept it is close, nonetheless.
But my point was not about whether YES or NO would win, it's about the politics. I literally can't see how TMay could allow a new indyref when she's in the middle of negotiating Britain's exit from the EU. It's like negotiating a divorce, and carefully dividing the assets, while simultaneously wagering your house on a poker game.
To my mind (I await cleverer people to educate me) it is undo-able, in so many ways.
So she has to find a way to delay it. OR she yields in some way to Sturgeon's demand on the Single Market, without looking weak.
Very very tricky.
Scotland voted to remain part of Britain, and Britain (inc Scotland) voted for Brexit.
Sturgeon has no justification whatsoever for her demand.
Ignore.
In 2014 voters in Scotland were told the only way they'd remain inside the single market was to vote No.
Scotland can leave the UK and return to the single market but at the cost of likely duties on Scottish exports to the UK and border controls
Patrol boats on the Tweed AND the Foyle?
I think Yes. There will be some kind of hard border in Ireland, and even harder within the "UK" if Scotland secedes.
It's a necessary corollary of leaving the Single Market. No matter how frictionless or seamless our access, there will be *some* tariffs and NTBs. Which means customs. Guards. A border.
I can't see any alternative, unless the EU is unbelieveably generous and gives us Single Market access and yet restrictions on Free Movement. But even then you'd need police to check the Free Movement.
There would be a frontier at Berwick, just as there is at Dover. They'd try to keep it electronic at Newry, but then police the planes and ferries across the Irish Sea.
Oh well, I suppose that at least it means more jobs for people, until the robots arrive at least.
On topic, that assessment of postal voting is very interesting. From the thread header: the plain truth is that a strong postal vote is primarily the sign of a well-organised campaign.
49% was one poll, out of line with all others. Though I accept it is close, nonetheless.
But my point was not about whether YES or NO would win, it's about the politics. I literally can't see how TMay could allow a new indyref when she's in the middle of negotiating Britain's exit from the EU. It's like negotiating a divorce, and carefully dividing the assets, while simultaneously wagering your house on a poker game.
To my mind (I await cleverer people to educate me) it is undo-able, in so many ways.
So she has to find a way to delay it. OR she yields in some way to Sturgeon's demand on the Single Market, without looking weak.
Very very tricky.
Scotland voted to remain part of Britain, and Britain (inc Scotland) voted for Brexit.
Sturgeon has no justification whatsoever for her demand.
Ignore.
In 2014 voters in Scotland were told the only way they'd remain inside the single market was to vote No.
Scotland can leave the UK and return to the single market but at the cost of likely duties on Scottish exports to the UK and border controls
Patrol boats on the Tweed AND the Foyle?
I think Yes. There will be some kind of hard border in Ireland, and even harder within the "UK" if Scotland secedes.
It's a necessary corollary of leaving the Single Market. No matter how frictionless or seamless our access, there will be *some* tariffs and NTBs. Which means customs. Guards. A border.
snip
There would be a frontier at Berwick, just as there is at Dover. They'd try to keep it electronic at Newry, but then police the planes and ferries across the Irish Sea.
You are then implying that you will need a passport to travel from one part of the UK (NIR) to another (ENG)? You are also implying that the border between the two Irelands would be softer (electronic) than that on the River Tweed.
SNIP
So Irish citizens will also need work permits, when we Brexit?
Most likely given the end of free movement, as will UK workers in Dublin
Edinburgh could be in powerful position, when Scotland becomes independent in the EU. English speaking, GMT time zone, in the single market, much more fun than Dublin, fast train to London. A great city for business and for living in. With some financial services that it can build on.
49% was one poll, out of line with all others. Though I accept it is close, nonetheless.
But my point was not about whether YES or NO would win, it's about the politics. I literally can't see how TMay could allow a new indyref when she's in the middle of negotiating Britain's exit from the EU. It's like negotiating a divorce, and carefully dividing the assets, while simultaneously wagering your house on a poker game.
To my mind (I await cleverer people to educate me) it is undo-able, in so many ways.
So she has to find a way to delay it. OR she yields in some way to Sturgeon's demand on the Single Market, without looking weak.
Very very tricky.
Scotland voted to remain part of Britain, and Britain (inc Scotland) voted for Brexit.
Sturgeon has no justification whatsoever for her demand.
Ignore.
In 2014 voters in Scotland were told the only way they'd remain inside the single market was to vote No.
Scotland can leave the UK and return to the single market but at the cost of likely duties on Scottish exports to the UK and border controls
Patrol boats on the Tweed AND the Foyle?
I think Yes. There will be some kind of hard border in Ireland, and even harder within the "UK" if Scotland secedes.
It's a necessary corollary of leaving the Single Market. No matter how frictionless or seamless our access, there will be *some* tariffs and NTBs. Which means customs. Guards. A border.
I can't see any alternative, unless the EU is unbelieveably generous and gives us Single Market access and yet restrictions on Free Movement. But even then you'd need police to check the Free Movement.
There would be a frontier at Berwick, just as there is at Dover. They'd try to keep it electronic at Newry, but then police the planes and ferries across the Irish Sea.
Oh well, I suppose that at least it means more jobs for people, until the robots arrive at least.
On topic, that assessment of postal voting is very interesting. From the thread header: the plain truth is that a strong postal vote is primarily the sign of a well-organised campaign.
Good evening everyone.
Already discussed universal basic income and automation in the last thread
I think iScotland could eventually prosper, mightily, and be a kind of tartan Denmark, and good luck to her if that's what Scots choose. But getting there would be EXTREMELY painful, and prolonged, given Scotland's dire deficit, the slow demise of North Sea Oil, and its current dependency on English largesse.
Of course, what they don't own up to is how to get from A to B. The rhetoric is that Scotland is rich but held back if not robbed by the rest of the UK, the reality is Scotland has a large deficit and oil and gas are now very unlikely to fill it for a whole host of reasons.
But it may not matter, Nats attack the GERS figures when they don't like them, even though those come from their own government. We are not talking about a movement that is motivated by facts and figures, but largely by sentiment.
Edinburgh could be in powerful position, when Scotland becomes independent in the EU. English speaking, GMT time zone, in the single market, much more fun than Dublin, fast train to London. A great city for business and for living in. With some financial services that it can build on.
Edinburgh is a Remain and Unionist City unlike Glasgow and will likely be fine regardless
49% was one poll, out of line with all others. Though I accept it is close, nonetheless.
But my point was not about whether YES or NO would win, it's about the politics. I literally can't see how TMay could allow a new indyref when she's in the middle of negotiating Britain's exit from the EU. It's like negotiating a divorce, and carefully dividing the assets, while simultaneously wagering your house on a poker game.
To my mind (I await cleverer people to educate me) it is undo-able, in so many ways.
So she has to find a way to delay it. OR she yields in some way to Sturgeon's demand on the Single Market, without looking weak.
Very very tricky.
Scotland voted to remain part of Britain, and Britain (inc Scotland) voted for Brexit.
Sturgeon has no justification whatsoever for her demand.
Ignore.
In 2014 voters in Scotland were told the only way they'd remain inside the single market was to vote No.
Scotland can leave the UK and return to the single market but at the cost of likely duties on Scottish exports to the UK and border controls
Patrol boats on the Tweed AND the Foyle?
I think Yes. There will be some kind of hard border in Ireland, and even harder within the "UK" if Scotland secedes.
It's a necessary corollary of leaving the Single Market. No matter how frictionless or seamless our access, there will be *some* tariffs and NTBs. Which means customs. Guards. A border.
snip
There would be a frontier at Berwick, just as there is at Dover. They'd try to keep it electronic at Newry, but then police the planes and ferries across the Irish Sea.
You are then implying that you will need a passport to travel from one part of the UK (NIR) to another (ENG)? You are also implying that the border between the two Irelands would be softer (electronic) than that on the River Tweed.
SNIP
So Irish citizens will also need work permits, when we Brexit?
Most likely given the end of free movement, as will UK workers in Dublin
Well at least your and @SeanT 's logic is consistent. But a hard border on the Foyle is a nontrivial affair. There's history... a hard border on the Tweed is a mere flesh wound in comparison...
49% was one poll, out of line with all others. Though I accept it is close, nonetheless.
But my point was not about whether YES or NO would win, it's about the politics. I literally can't see how TMay could allow a new indyref when she's in the middle of negotiating Britain's exit from the EU. It's like negotiating a divorce, and carefully dividing the assets, while simultaneously wagering your house on a poker game.
To my mind (I await cleverer people to educate me) it is undo-able, in so many ways.
So she has to find a way to delay it. OR she yields in some way to Sturgeon's demand on the Single Market, without looking weak.
Very very tricky.
Scotland voted to remain part of Britain, and Britain (inc Scotland) voted for Brexit.
Sturgeon has no justification whatsoever for her demand.
Ignore.
In 2014 voters in Scotland were told the only way they'd remain inside the single market was to vote No.
Scotland can leave the UK and return to the single market but at the cost of likely duties on Scottish exports to the UK and border controls
Patrol boats on the Tweed AND the Foyle?
I think Yes. There will be some kind of hard border in Ireland, and even harder within the "UK" if Scotland secedes.
It's a necessary corollary of leaving the Single Market. No matter how frictionless or seamless our access, there will be *some* tariffs and NTBs. Which means customs. Guards. A border.
snip
There would be a frontier at Berwick, just as there is at Dover. They'd try to keep it electronic at Newry, but then police the planes and ferries across the Irish Sea.
You are then implying that you will need a passport to travel from one part of the UK (NIR) to another (ENG)? You are also implying that the border between the two Irelands would be softer (electronic) than that on the River Tweed.
SNIP
So Irish citizens will also need work permits, when we Brexit?
Most likely given the end of free movement, as will UK workers in Dublin
Well at least your and @SeanT 's logic is consistent. But a hard border on the Foyle is a nontrivial affair. There's history... a hard border on the Tweed is a mere flesh wound in comparison...
Historically Berwick has seen more tensions than Lifford and Strabane
49% was one poll, out of line with all others. Though I accept it is close, nonetheless.
But my point was not about whether YES or NO would win, it's about the politics. I literally can't see how TMay could allow a new indyref when she's in the middle of negotiating Britain's exit from the EU. It's like negotiating a divorce, and carefully dividing the assets, while simultaneously wagering your house on a poker game.
To my mind (I await cleverer people to educate me) it is undo-able, in so many ways.
So she has to find a way to delay it. OR she yields in some way to Sturgeon's demand on the Single Market, without looking weak.
Very very tricky.
Scotland voted to remain part of Britain, and Britain (inc Scotland) voted for Brexit.
Sturgeon has no justification whatsoever for her demand.
Ignore.
In 2014 voters in Scotland were told the only way they'd remain inside the single market was to vote No.
Scotland can leave the UK and return to the single market but at the cost of likely duties on Scottish exports to the UK and border controls
Patrol boats on the Tweed AND the Foyle?
I think Yes. There will be some kind of hard border in Ireland, and even harder within the "UK" if Scotland secedes.
It's a necessary corollary of leaving the Single Market. No matter how frictionless or seamless our access, there will be *some* tariffs and NTBs. Which means customs. Guards. A border.
I can't see any alternative, unless the EU is unbelieveably generous and gives us Single Market access and yet restrictions on Free Movement. But even then you'd need police to check the Free Movement.
There would be a frontier at Berwick, just as there is at Dover. They'd try to keep it electronic at Newry, but then police the planes and ferries across the Irish Sea.
Oh well, I suppose that at least it means more jobs for people, until the robots arrive at least.
On topic, that assessment of postal voting is very interesting. From the thread header: the plain truth is that a strong postal vote is primarily the sign of a well-organised campaign.
Good evening everyone.
Already discussed universal basic income and automation in the last thread
Yes, I know - that's what prompted my remark. An interesting discussion.
49% was one poll, out of line with all others. Though I accept it is close, nonetheless.
But my point was not about whether YES or NO would win, it's about the politics. I literally can't see how TMay could allow a new indyref when she's in the middle of negotiating Britain's exit from the EU. It's like negotiating a divorce, and carefully dividing the assets, while simultaneously wagering your house on a poker game.
To my mind (I await cleverer people to educate me) it is undo-able, in so many ways.
So she has to find a way to delay it. OR she yields in some way to Sturgeon's demand on the Single Market, without looking weak.
Very very tricky.
Scotland voted to remain part of Britain, and Britain (inc Scotland) voted for Brexit.
Sturgeon has no justification whatsoever for her demand.
Ignore.
In 2014 voters in Scotland were told the only way they'd remain inside the single market was to vote No.
Scotland can leave the UK and return to the single market but at the cost of likely duties on Scottish exports to the UK and border controls
Patrol boats on the Tweed AND the Foyle?
I think Yes. There will be some kind of hard border in Ireland, and even harder within the "UK" if Scotland secedes.
It's a necessary corollary of leaving the Single Market. No matter how frictionless or seamless our access, there will be *some* tariffs and NTBs. Which means customs. Guards. A border.
snip
There would be a frontier at Berwick, just as there is at Dover. They'd try to keep it electronic at Newry, but then police the planes and ferries across the Irish Sea.
You are then implying that you will need a passport to travel from one part of the UK (NIR) to another (ENG)? You are also implying that the border between the two Irelands would be softer (electronic) than that on the River Tweed.
SNIP
So Irish citizens will also need work permits, when we Brexit?
Most likely given the end of free movement, as will UK workers in Dublin
Well at least your and @SeanT 's logic is consistent. But a hard border on the Foyle is a nontrivial affair. There's history... a hard border on the Tweed is a mere flesh wound in comparison...
Historically Berwick has seen more tensions than Lifford and Strabane
As with Brexit, I predict a fudge. A Federalised Britain in a quasi-detached UK-still-slightly-in-the-EU.
This is why the Scottish intervention in the Supreme Court was significant. They've been able to demonstrate that Britain is still a strictly unitary state despite devolution, so any last-ditch promises of a federalised Britain will be devalued before they're made.
So Irish citizens will also need work permits, when we Brexit?
I think they will. Fine words will be spoken now but when it comes to it, hard economics will win out. Why should the Brits allow the Irish to work here, undocumented, but not French, Danes, Germans, etc? Brexit changes everything. Ireland will be a part of a superstate manque. A foreign power. And they are richer than us per capita, theoretically.
Irish voting rights will go, as well.
Brexit is a profound rupture.
I don't see why that has to be the case. There can be no border not by having the Irish have the right to work here but not French etc ... but by having the Irish have the right to work in Northern Ireland but not French etc
Allow Northern Ireland employers to accept either British or Irish passports as proof of right to work and the job is done.
Looking at moving to Edinburgh in a few years, so I'm hoping this is no Indie for selfish reasons. Any suggestions where to live up there from knowledgeable people?
You would have to be an absolute numpty to believe them ever again.
Unfortunately when it comes to Nats they either don't care or believe the most ludicrous BS about the Scottish economy. The Nats that have a realistic view of the Scottish economy could fit in a minibus.
My favourite is that, despite the depletion of North Sea Oil, Scotland will be the "Saudi Arabia of renewables", ignoring the fact that Saudi Arabia already IS the Saudi Arabia of renewables, given its vast, almost limitless potential for solar energy production - currently the best and cheapest kind of renewable energy.
But then, Scotland has lots of wind and waves, and these are virtually unknown in the rest of the world.
I think iScotland could eventually prosper, mightily, and be a kind of tartan Denmark, and good luck to her if that's what Scots choose. But getting there would be EXTREMELY painful, and prolonged, given Scotland's dire deficit, the slow demise of North Sea Oil, and its current dependency on English largesse.
I also think iScotland would be much better off outside the EU, like Iceland or Norway.
I think iScotland could eventually prosper, mightily, and be a kind of tartan Denmark, and good luck to her if that's what Scots choose. But getting there would be EXTREMELY painful, and prolonged, given Scotland's dire deficit, the slow demise of North Sea Oil, and its current dependency on English largesse.
Of course, what they don't own up to is how to get from A to B. The rhetoric is that Scotland is rich but held back if not robbed by the rest of the UK, the reality is Scotland has a large deficit and oil and gas are now very unlikely to fill it for a whole host of reasons.
But it may not matter, Nats attack the GERS figures when they don't like them, even though those come from their own government. We are not talking about a movement that is motivated by facts and figures, but largely by sentiment.
They will have the same credibility problem with money and economics that Remain has following the prophesies of doom that failed to materialise and that Labour have on how to manage the nation's finances and migration.
The public take note of expertise, as opposed to people who are falsely called as experts.
If someone has a history of getting it right, they merit a hearing. If they call it wrongly, their subsequent views and prophesies are more readily dismissed.
The SNP will have a Labourite credibility problem with finances if they try again.
It will be Fillon (who will recover) v Le Pen, and Fillon will win.
I would agree with that on Macron and add he comes across as fairly arrogant to boot.
If it was Macron vs Le Pen, I would be tempted to put money on Le Pen. Fillon would thump Le Pen.
The latest head to head polls say the opposite. Macron enjoys a 26 point lead over Le Pen, Fillon's lead is around 20.
We get back to the question re polling reliability.
The one trend that you see over the past 18 months is that there is a large chunk of the population that likes socking it to those seen as part of an arrogant elite. Macron fits the bill on that front, I think Fillon would gain more from "soft" Le Pen voters than the hard left he would lose to Le Pen. I am not convinced the hard left would go with Macron.
The problem the SNP have is that they are running a "jam today, even more jam tomorrow" type of government. They've missed a trick.
They have been in power for a decade nearly now and could have shown it was possible for Scotland to be sane with its finances and running a fiscal surplus. It would have required some tougher choices and they may not have been popular but if the Scottish government was running a surplus and the British government perpetually running a deficit it would be quite easy (and possibly true) to say that it is spendthrift Westminster that is the greatest risk to Scots finances.
Instead after a decade of being in power the SNP are running a budget deficit of nearly 10% per annum, greater than that of the UK.
I wonder if you have been a twat on twitter In the past and then want to get into politics is the best way of dealing with this issue? Just own up to it all on day one?
Maybe Labour would rather lose than appeal to the sorts of people who might otherwise be tempted by UKIP.
It's the only way to explain the behaviour and selection of Snell, as well as some of their key campaigners.
As a Conservative supporter I think I'd rather lose than have to appeal to the sort of people that are still tempted by UKIP now that Brexit is won?
What would be your motivation? Nothing particularly palatable. And that isn't accusing all Leavers/Kippers of racism before anybody starts squeaking, just pointing out that we're leaving the EU now, sovereignty is regained, the battle is won. Anything further immigration wise starts to really look BNP lite and those aren't people I'd like on my side in the ballot booth.
A reminder: UKIP are actually to the LEFT of the British people on many issues. A majority or plurality of Brits want to ban the burqa, bring back the death penalty, and stop all immigration from Muslim countries, etc etc. And these issues MATTER to a lot of Brits, though no party, not even UKIP, espouses them (tho UKIP have come closest).
So you are little different from Mason or Parris. You despise half your countrymen as racists and bigots. Well done.
Read whats written. I'm talking about the 10 percent of the population who still support Ukip as a vaguely acceptable version of the BNP (who, incidentally, espoused the issues you raise). People who are prepared to vote based on religion and colour of skin. NOT anybody who who would like some control of immigration and who is opposed to the burqa. Personally I doubt many UKIP voters are motivated by economic policy, NHS policy, hunting or the death penalty.
I wonder if you have been a twat on twitter In the past and then want to get into politics is the best way of dealing with this issue? Just own up to it all on day one?
To be clear not asking for a friend.
Yup.
Say 'David Cameron was right about Twitter and I'm proof of that.'
49% was one poll, out of line with all others. Though I accept it is close, nonetheless.
But my point was not about whether YES or NO would win, it's about the politics. I literally can't see how TMay could allow a new indyref when she's in the middle of negotiating Britain's exit from the EU. It's like negotiating a divorce, and carefully dividing the assets, while simultaneously wagering your house on a poker game.
To my mind (I await cleverer people to educate me) it is undo-able, in so many ways.
So she has to find a way to delay it. OR she yields in some way to Sturgeon's demand on the Single Market, without looking weak.
Very very tricky.
Scotland voted to remain part of Britain, and Britain (inc Scotland) voted for Brexit.
Sturgeon has no justification whatsoever for her demand.
Ignore.
In 2014 voters in Scotland were told the only way they'd remain inside the single market was to vote No.
Scotland can leave the UK and return to the single market but at the cost of likely duties on Scottish exports to the UK and border controls
Patrol boats on the Tweed AND the Foyle?
I think Yes. There will be some kind of hard border in Ireland, and even harder within the "UK" if Scotland secedes.
It's a necessary corollary of leaving the Single Market. No matter how frictionless or seamless our access, there will be *some* tariffs and NTBs. Which means customs. Guards. A border.
snip
There would be a frontier at Berwick, just as there is at Dover. They'd try to keep it electronic at Newry, but then police the planes and ferries across the Irish Sea.
You are then implying that you will need a passport to travel from one part of the UK (NIR) to another (ENG)? You are also implying that the border between the two Irelands would be softer (electronic) than that on the River Tweed.
SNIP
So Irish citizens will also need work permits, when we Brexit?
Most likely given the end of free movement, as will UK workers in Dublin
Well at ...
Historically Berwick has seen more tensions than Lifford and Strabane
We would have to go back centuries
If we end the Union we would be going back centuries
How do you think we avoid "patrol boats on the Tweed" if we leave the Single Market and Scotland remains (or, rather, rejoins), the Single Market, as is the SNP's plan?
By definition leaving the Single Market means we won't have entirely tariff-free, NTB-free access to each other's markets. At the very very least there must be customs checks, of some kind. No doubt these will be kept to the minimum, but they will exist. They have to, otherwise anyone in the EU could export to Scotland, and then drive their stuff over to Carlisle, avoiding all duties, taxes and tariffs.
Likewise labour. Scots will need permits to work in London, as Londoners will need work permits for jobs in Edinburgh. I don't see how this is avoidable, in the round, as much as people pray it won't happen. Otherwise, again, Romanians could fly to Aberdeen and just get a bus to Manchester and start work.
You are aware that screening for working in the UK doesn't happen in the border right? Otherwise Americans and Canadians etc without a visa couldn't just board a flight and land without getting right to work.
Screening for right to work is the employers responsibility. If a Romanian doesn't have right to work then they can do what you suggest but no honest employer would hire them - and any that does can face a hefty fine, closure of their business and even prison time.
Looking at moving to Edinburgh in a few years, so I'm hoping this is no Indie for selfish reasons. Any suggestions where to live up there from knowledgeable people?
I'd recommend both Broughton and Marchmont for entirely different reasons. The former reminds me of when I lived in Bloomsbury, the latter of my time in Oxford.
49% was one poll, out of line with all others. Though I accept it is close, nonetheless.
But my pg weak.
Very very tricky.
Scotland voted to remain part of Britain, and Britain (inc Scotland) voted for Brexit.
Sturgeon has no justification whatsoever for her demand.
Ignore.
In 2014 voters in Scotland were told the only way they'd remain inside the single market was to vote No.
Scotland can leave the UK and return to the single market but at the cost of likely duties on Scottish exports to the UK and border controls
Patrol boats on the Tweed AND the Foyle?
I think Yerries across the Irish Sea.
You arer Tweed.
SNIP
So Irish citizens will also need work permits, when we Brexit?
Most likely given the end of free movement, as will UK workers in Dublin
Well at least your and @SeanT 's logic is consistent. But a hard border on the Foyle is a nontrivial affair. There's history... a hard border on the Tweed is a mere flesh wound in comparison...
Historically Berwick has seen more tensions than Lifford and Strabane
We would have to go back centuries
How do you think we avoid "patrol boats on the Tweed" if we leave the Single Market and Scotland remains (or, rather, rejoins), the Single Market, as is the SNP's plan?
CUT
Likewise labour. Scots will need permits to work in London, as Londoners will need work permits for jobs in Edinburgh. I don't see how this is avoidable, in the round, as much as people pray it won't happen. Otherwise, again, Romanians could fly to Aberdeen and just get a bus to Manchester and start work.
I don't know the answer. I'm asking the question. I would assume sanity would prevail and we'd immediately establish some sort of customs agreement with the EU (including Scotland and Ireland). But Brexit is such a badly thought through hot mess you might be right.
49% was one poll, out of line with all others. Though I accept it is close, nonetheless.
But my point was not about whether YES or NO would win, it's about the politics. I literally can't see how TMay could allow a new indyref when she's in the middle of negotiating Britain's exit from the EU. It's like negotiating a divorce, and carefully dividing the assets, while simultaneously wagering your house on a poker game.
To my mind (I await cleverer people to educate me) it is undo-able, in so many ways.
So she has to find a way to delay it. OR she yields in some way to Sturgeon's demand on the Single Market, without looking weak.
Very very tricky.
Scotland voted to remain part of Britain, and Britain (inc Scotland) voted for Brexit.
Sturgeon has no justification whatsoever for her demand.
Ignore.
In 2014 voters in Scotland were told the only way they'd remain inside the single market was to vote No.
Scotland can leave the UK and return to the single market but at the cost of likely duties on Scottish exports to the UK and border controls
Patrol boats on the Tweed AND the Foyle?
I think Yes. There will be some kind of hard border in Ireland, and even harder within the "UK" if Scotland secedes.
It's a necessary corollary of leaving the Single Market. No matter how frictionless or seamless our access, there will be *some* tariffs and NTBs. Which means customs. Guards. A border.
I can't see any alternative, unless the EU is unbelieveably generous and gives us Single Market access and yet restrictions on Free Movement. But even then you'd need police to check the Free Movement.
There would be a frontier at Berwick, just as there is at Dover. They'd try to keep it electronic at Newry, but then police the planes and ferries across the Irish Sea.
Oh well, I suppose that at least it means more jobs for people, until the robots arrive at least.
On topic, that assessment of postal voting is very interesting. From the thread header: the plain truth is that a strong postal vote is primarily the sign of a well-organised campaign.
Good evening everyone.
Already discussed universal basic income and automation in the last thread
Yes, I know - that's what prompted my remark. An interesting discussion.
It will be Fillon (who will recover) v Le Pen, and Fillon will win.
I would agree with that on Macron and add he comes across as fairly arrogant to boot.
If it was Macron vs Le Pen, I would be tempted to put money on Le Pen. Fillon would thump Le Pen.
Not on present polling he would not, the hard left would vote for Le Pen
Do you think Melenchon might withdraw? This would enable the PS to overhaul both Fillon and Macron and lead to a hard left vs hard right showdown in Round II.
It will be Fillon (who will recover) v Le Pen, and Fillon will win.
I would agree with that on Macron and add he comes across as fairly arrogant to boot.
If it was Macron vs Le Pen, I would be tempted to put money on Le Pen. Fillon would thump Le Pen.
Not on present polling he would not, the hard left would vote for Le Pen
Do you think Melenchon might withdraw? This would enable the PS to overhaul both Fillon and Macron and lead to a hard left vs hard right showdown in Round II.
If Melenchon did withdraw and endorse Hamon a Hamon v Le Pen runoff becomes a real possibility yes, as does a President Le Pen
I don't know the answer. I'm asking the question. I would assume sanity would prevail and we'd immediately establish some sort of customs agreement with the EU (including Scotland and Ireland). But Brexit is such a badly thought through hot mess you might be right.
If we do what you propose what is the economic rationale for leaving the UK to join the EU? Since we already have the customs agreement etc then why take that step?
There's a bit of "have cake and eat it" logic going on where people propose leaving the UK to join the Single Market while keeping a Single Market with the UK. That isn't possible unless the UK has a Single Market with the EU Single Market in which case you're not joining anything.
I wonder if you have been a twat on twitter In the past and then want to get into politics is the best way of dealing with this issue? Just own up to it all on day one?
To be clear not asking for a friend.
Interesting point, and not only applicable to politics.
Perhaps we are going to need some sort of forum for public recantation of stupid remarks that somehow cleans the record and covers all previous idiocies in a cloud of forgetting.
That isn't really that bad.. but when he deleted all his tweets from before last July it was obvious there were some humdingers to mine for
If UKIP cant beat this spiteful nerdy drip, I agree they might as well give it up
Even if UKIP lose Stoke they still have a purpose for hard Brexit backers if May compromises at all during the Brexit negotiations
How many FPTP seats can UKIP with a platform of "harder than this" Brexit that can't be accommodated by the right wing of the Tory Party?
There's no future for UKIP in battling the EU which is why you have more and more referring to Islam/immigration etc instead as its reason to be. Which is treading a very thin line between what there is now and becoming a BNP redux.
I wonder if you have been a twat on twitter In the past and then want to get into politics is the best way of dealing with this issue? Just own up to it all on day one?
To be clear not asking for a friend.
Interesting point, and not only applicable to politics.
Perhaps we are going to need some sort of forum for public recantation of stupid remarks that somehow cleans the record and covers all previous idiocies in a cloud of forgetting.
If you are a "norm" the thing to use a service to automate deletion every day / few days. Not gone from those that really want to find out, but eg I doubt most companies are going to such lengths if you apply for a job.
So Irish citizens will also need work permits, when we Brexit?
I think they will. Fine words will be spoken now but when it comes to it, hard economics will win out. Why should the Brits allow the Irish to work here, undocumented, but not French, Danes, Germans, etc? Brexit changes everything. Ireland will be a part of a superstate manque. A foreign power. And they are richer than us per capita, theoretically.
Irish voting rights will go, as well.
Brexit is a profound rupture.
I don't see why that has to be the case. There can be no border not by having the Irish have the right to work here but not French etc ... but by having the Irish have the right to work in Northern Ireland but not French etc
Allow Northern Ireland employers to accept either British or Irish passports as proof of right to work and the job is done.
I agree. A special case will be made and a deal done for Ulster, because the Brits already regard Ulster as a bit different, and because we are separated by the Irish Sea, where ferries and planes can be easily policed, passports checked, etc
Such a deal will not be done with Scotland, which will have willingly seceded from the UK, to join a foreign power, and with whom we share a long land border, easily crossed.
There will be customs and frontiers etc. Much of it will be electronic. But they will exist. They have to, or our new position outside the Single Market and Free Movement makes absolutely no sense, and cannot work.
The Irish border is far longer than the Scots border (which is the shortest of all UK borders) and more easily permeated. The Tweed is the border with Scotland for much of its length - so easier to manage than a land border. By contrast around 300 tiny roads and paths cross the border in Ireland. The Irish border is a nightmare to police, so long and winding is it. A hard border with the EU there will be 'interesting'...
That isn't really that bad.. but when he deleted all his tweets from before last July it was obvious there were some humdingers to mine for
If UKIP cant beat this spiteful nerdy drip, I agree they might as well give it up
Even if UKIP lose Stoke they still have a purpose for hard Brexit backers if May compromises at all during the Brexit negotiations
How many FPTP seats can UKIP with a platform of "harder than this" Brexit that can't be accommodated by the right wing of the Tory Party?
There's no future for UKIP in battling the EU which is why you have more and more referring to Islam/immigration etc instead as its reason to be. Which is treading a very thin line between what there is now and becoming a BNP redux.
If May imposes a job offer requirement rather than a stricter points system to try and get some bilateral agreements with the EU, perhaps with some continued budget contributions, then UKIP would build a platform in opposition to that as well as Islamic migration yes. There are also 11 seats on the UKIP target list which are easier for them to win than Stoke Central http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/ukip
So Irish citizens will also need work permits, when we Brexit?
I think they will. Fine words will be spoken now but when it comes to it, hard economics will win out. Why should the Brits allow the Irish to work here, undocumented, but not French, Danes, Germans, etc? Brexit changes everything. Ireland will be a part of a superstate manque. A foreign power. And they are richer than us per capita, theoretically.
Irish voting rights will go, as well.
Brexit is a profound rupture.
I don't see why that has to be the case. There can be no border not by having the Irish have the right to work here but not French etc ... but by having the Irish have the right to work in Northern Ireland but not French etc
Allow Northern Ireland employers to accept either British or Irish passports as proof of right to work and the job is done.
I agree. A special case will be made and a deal done for Ulster, because the Brits already regard Ulster as a bit different, and because we are separated by the Irish Sea, where ferries and planes can be easily policed, passports checked, etc
Such a deal will not be done with Scotland, which will have willingly seceded from the UK, to join a foreign power, and with whom we share a long land border, easily crossed.
There will be customs and frontiers etc. Much of it will be electronic. But they will exist. They have to, or our new position outside the Single Market and Free Movement makes absolutely no sense, and cannot work.
The Irish border is far longer than the Scots border (which is the shortest of all UK borders) and more easily permeated. The Tweed is the border with Scotland for much of its length - so easier to manage than a land border. By contrast around 300 tiny roads and paths cross the border in Ireland. The Irish border is a nightmare to police, so long and winding is it. A hard border with the EU there will be 'interesting'...
I don't know the answer. I'm asking the question. I would assume sanity would prevail and we'd immediately establish some sort of customs agreement with the EU (including Scotland and Ireland). But Brexit is such a badly thought through hot mess you might be right.
If we do what you propose what is the economic rationale for leaving the UK to join the EU? Since we already have the customs agreement etc then why take that step?
There's a bit of "have cake and eat it" logic going on where people propose leaving the UK to join the Single Market while keeping a Single Market with the UK. That isn't possible unless the UK has a Single Market with the EU Single Market in which case you're not joining anything.
I realise this. I am merely looking at the absurdities born of Brexit. The Irish border being far, far more worrying than the Scottish one.
Whatever you feel about the LibDems and their leader, their slogan - "Open. Tolerant. United" - elegantly and concisely, and with a positive set of values, hits all the points needed to differentiate themselves from both Labour (none of the three) and the Conservatives (arguably tainted by the 'intolerant' label).
So Irish citizens will also need work permits, when we Brexit?
I think they will. Fine words will be spoken now but when it comes to it, hard economics will win out. Why should the Brits allow the Irish to work here, undocumented, but not French, Danes, Germans, etc? Brexit changes everything. Ireland will be a part of a superstate manque. A foreign power. And they are richer than us per capita, theoretically.
Irish voting rights will go, as well.
Brexit is a profound rupture.
I don't see why that has to be the case. There can be no border not by having the Irish have the right to work here but not French etc ... but by having the Irish have the right to work in Northern Ireland but not French etc
Allow Northern Ireland employers to accept either British or Irish passports as proof of right to work and the job is done.
I agree. A special case will be made and a deal done for Ulster, because the Brits already regard Ulster as a bit different, and because we are separated by the Irish Sea, where ferries and planes can be easily policed, passports checked, etc
Such a deal will not be done with Scotland, which will have willingly seceded from the UK, to join a foreign power, and with whom we share a long land border, easily crossed.
There will be customs and frontiers etc. Much of it will be electronic. But they will exist. They have to, or our new position outside the Single Market and Free Movement makes absolutely no sense, and cannot work.
The Irish border is far longer than the Scots border (which is the shortest of all UK borders) and more easily permeated. The Tweed is the border with Scotland for much of its length - so easier to manage than a land border. By contrast around 300 tiny roads and paths cross the border in Ireland. The Irish border is a nightmare to police, so long and winding is it. A hard border with the EU there will be 'interesting'...
I wonder if you have been a twat on twitter In the past and then want to get into politics is the best way of dealing with this issue? Just own up to it all on day one?
To be clear not asking for a friend.
Yup.
Say 'David Cameron was right about Twitter and I'm proof of that.'
How do you think we avoid "patrol boats on the Tweed" if we leave the Single Market and Scotland remains (or, rather, rejoins), the Single Market, as is the SNP's plan?
By definition leaving the Single Market means we won't have entirely tariff-free, NTB-free access to each other's markets. At the very very least there must be customs checks, of some kind. No doubt these will be kept to the minimum, but they will exist. They have to, otherwise anyone in the EU could export to Scotland, and then drive their stuff over to Carlisle, avoiding all duties, taxes and tariffs.
Likewise labour. Scots will need permits to work in London, as Londoners will need work permits for jobs in Edinburgh. I don't see how this is avoidable, in the round, as much as people pray it won't happen. Otherwise, again, Romanians could fly to Aberdeen and just get a bus to Manchester and start work.
You are aware that screening for working in the UK doesn't happen in the border right? Otherwise Americans and Canadians etc without a visa couldn't just board a flight and land without getting right to work.
Screening for right to work is the employers responsibility. If a Romanian doesn't have right to work then they can do what you suggest but no honest employer would hire them - and any that does can face a hefty fine, closure of their business and even prison time.
I wonder if you have been a twat on twitter In the past and then want to get into politics is the best way of dealing with this issue? Just own up to it all on day one?
To be clear not asking for a friend.
Yup.
Say 'David Cameron was right about Twitter and I'm proof of that.'
Looking at moving to Edinburgh in a few years, so I'm hoping this is no Indie for selfish reasons. Any suggestions where to live up there from knowledgeable people?
Advice? - don't. The winters are Satanic. So unbelievably dark and long. I think Warwickshire is about as far north as contented human habitation is theoretically possible.
I'm quite serious,
Bruce Chatwin did some years as a student in Scotland, and confessed he nearly killed himself during the winters (which drag on into April, or even May)
I love and adore Scotland, it's superbly beautiful in places, but living there? Jesus no.
Then there's the midges. But you get the idea.
Have you ever lived in Edinburgh. It is a wonderful City to live in and while the winters can be colder it is on the whole dryer and during my six years living there the climate did not enter my thought as being a reason not to live and work in this beautiful City
Looking at moving to Edinburgh in a few years, so I'm hoping this is no Indie for selfish reasons. Any suggestions where to live up there from knowledgeable people?
Advice? - don't. The winters are Satanic. So unbelievably dark and long. I think Warwickshire is about as far north as contented human habitation is theoretically possible.
I'm quite serious,
Bruce Chatwin did some years as a student in Scotland, and confessed he nearly killed himself during the winters (which drag on into April, or even May)
I love and adore Scotland, it's superbly beautiful in places, but living there? Jesus no.
Then there's the midges. But you get the idea.
He can always move to the city I am from and a area of the city near me.
I wonder if you have been a twat on twitter In the past and then want to get into politics is the best way of dealing with this issue? Just own up to it all on day one?
To be clear not asking for a friend.
Yup.
Say 'David Cameron was right about Twitter and I'm proof of that.'
Didn't we just used to call that growing up?
You're on to something there. It can be a modern rite of passage: the point where we turn from all the stupid things we once left on social media and accept responsibility for behaving like a grown-up.
My experience of Vote Leave is that the campaign was not at all well-organised on the ground, and that very little effort went into organising postal votes (of course, the situation may have been different elsewhere).
Since UKIP were involved with Leave EU and the Aaron Banks database not Vote Leave, I'm not sure of the point you are trying to make.
Carswell was vote Leave though. Maybe he will be helping out
My experience of Vote Leave is that the campaign was not at all well-organised on the ground, and that very little effort went into organising postal votes (of course, the situation may have been different elsewhere).
Since UKIP were involved with Leave EU and the Aaron Banks database not Vote Leave, I'm not sure of the point you are trying to make.
I was responding to a point made in the article by Stephen Bush.
Looking at moving to Edinburgh in a few years, so I'm hoping this is no Indie for selfish reasons. Any suggestions where to live up there from knowledgeable people?
Advice? - don't. The winters are Satanic. So unbelievably dark and long. I think Warwickshire is about as far north as contented human habitation is theoretically possible.
I'm quite serious,
Bruce Chatwin did some years as a student in Scotland, and confessed he nearly killed himself during the winters (which drag on into April, or even May)
I love and adore Scotland, it's superbly beautiful in places, but living there? Jesus no.
Then there's the midges. But you get the idea.
If the UK ever does decide to go for Summer Time or Double Summer Time all year round, that would be good enough reason for UDI anywhere north of Birmingham, I reckon.
Maybe Labour would rather lose than appeal to the sorts of people who might otherwise be tempted by UKIP.
It's the only way to explain the behaviour and selection of Snell, as well as some of their key campaigners.
As a Conservative supporter I think I'd rather lose than have to appeal to the sort of people that are still tempted by UKIP now that Brexit is won?
What would be your motivation? Nothing particularly palatable. And that isn't accusing all Leavers/Kippers of racism before anybody starts squeaking, just pointing out that we're leaving the EU now, sovereignty is regained, the battle is won. Anything further immigration wise starts to really look BNP lite and those aren't people I'd like on my side in the ballot booth.
A reminder: UKIP are actually to the LEFT of the British people on many issues. A majority or plurality of Brits want to ban the burqa, bring back the death penalty, and stop all immigration from Muslim countries, etc etc. And these issues MATTER to a lot of Brits, though no party, not even UKIP, espouses them (tho UKIP have come closest).
So you are little different from Mason or Parris. You despise half your countrymen as racists and bigots. Well done.
Read whats written. I'm talking about the 10 percent of the population who still support Ukip as a vaguely acceptable version of the BNP (who, incidentally, espoused the issues you raise). People who are prepared to vote based on religion and colour of skin. NOT anybody who who would like some control of immigration and who is opposed to the burqa. Personally I doubt many UKIP voters are motivated by economic policy, NHS policy, hunting or the death penalty.
Twat
I like that stray TWAT at the end. Was that directed at me, or just some sudden, eerie, nostalgic Freudian-blip reference to the last time you saw female genitalia, back in the late 1970s?
The former. All my genitalia related Freudian slips relate to Stacey Walkinshaw and her unkempt, piscean garden in March of 1994 at a 6th form party at Turweston cricket club.
Stoke report coming up on Newsnight...if you can live through all the bollocks that is Newsnight these days.
As usual Newsnight refuses to consider the possibility that a big rise in the population of the country over the last 20 years might have caused any of the problems they're talking about. I think one of the main reasons why young people can't afford to buy properties is because demand is so high.
Stoke report coming up on Newsnight...if you can live through all the bollocks that is Newsnight these days.
As usual Newsnight refuse to consider the possibility that a big rise in the population of the country over the last 20 years might have caused any of the problems they're talking about. I think the main reason why young people can't afford to buy properties is because demand is so high.
They also been disingenuous when talking about the student debt...talk of large numbers in terms of debt, then talking about "servicing it" these large numbers as if it is a normal loan, when they know it doesn't operate like that.
Also not talking about the fact only 15-20% of people used to go to uni, now it is 50%.
Comments
Unfortunately the new job requires an iPhone for whatever reason.
Interesting hazing ritual.
The other day you didn't seem to think that Wales was a nation within the UK.
shes bluffing with Mr Bun the Baker rather than a handful of aces
Tbf Yes voters knew that the lying bastards were lying to us. The people that believed the above, who knows what they think now.
The more Barnett is brought up by people on all sides, the more that feeling increases.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/
Scots in Ulster are not quite as dumb as actual scots as they had the brains to leave
Salmond said this would significantly underwrite Scotland's economy, proving that North Sea oil was going from "strength to strength".
It said the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development predicted oil prices could rise above a record level of $150 a barrel by 2020, while the UK government's Department of Energy and Climate Change also predicted rising oil prices.
At the same time, the oil industry was predicting production would rise from 1.4m barrels a day in 2010 to 2m barrels a day by 2017, and had spent £13bn investing in new production. Those figures contradicted gloomier forecasts for the UK government from the Office for Budget Responsibility late last year that said oil prices, now at $110 per barrel, would fall to $92 a barrel by 2017/18.
You would have to be an absolute numpty to believe them ever again.
However once Article 50 is invoked you just say that it is too soon/complicated to have one immediately. Agree in principle to have a second referendum but set the date for being holding the poll as being afterwards. Potentially to coincide with the 2020 general election.
History is with May here. The SNP secured their mandate for the initial independence referendum in May 2011. In January 2012 the government agreed in principle to holding the independence referendum. The actual referendum wasn't held until September 2014.
The SNP chose to wait over three years between getting their majority and securing the referendum ... and actually holding it. There was well over two years between the UK government agreeing in principle to the referendum and actually holding it.
If Sturgeon waits until after article 50 is invoked and history repeats itself then even comparing her simply demanding it as equivalent to winning a majority with it in your manifesto then time is simply not on her side. There simply isn't the time to wait nearly three years to hold a vote since Article 50 means we'd be exiting in two.
I'm struggling to think of any personally successful LibDems.
He helped bring you into your world which you might deem "personally successful".
The more objective view might be different....
On topic, that assessment of postal voting is very interesting. From the thread header:
the plain truth is that a strong postal vote is primarily the sign of a well-organised campaign.
Good evening everyone.
But it may not matter, Nats attack the GERS figures when they don't like them, even though those come from their own government. We are not talking about a movement that is motivated by facts and figures, but largely by sentiment.
If it was Macron vs Le Pen, I would be tempted to put money on Le Pen. Fillon would thump Le Pen.
https://youtu.be/C-7fzHy3aG0
I just knew his tweets would do for him, lets hope so
Allow Northern Ireland employers to accept either British or Irish passports as proof of right to work and the job is done.
https://twitter.com/gareth_snell/status/26018791950
BBC QT doesn't have too many guests named Diane.
The public take note of expertise, as opposed to people who are falsely called as experts.
If someone has a history of getting it right, they merit a hearing. If they call it wrongly, their subsequent views and prophesies are more readily dismissed.
The SNP will have a Labourite credibility problem with finances if they try again.
If UKIP cant beat this spiteful nerdy drip, I agree they might as well give it up
The one trend that you see over the past 18 months is that there is a large chunk of the population that likes socking it to those seen as part of an arrogant elite. Macron fits the bill on that front, I think Fillon would gain more from "soft" Le Pen voters than the hard left he would lose to Le Pen. I am not convinced the hard left would go with Macron.
They have been in power for a decade nearly now and could have shown it was possible for Scotland to be sane with its finances and running a fiscal surplus. It would have required some tougher choices and they may not have been popular but if the Scottish government was running a surplus and the British government perpetually running a deficit it would be quite easy (and possibly true) to say that it is spendthrift Westminster that is the greatest risk to Scots finances.
Instead after a decade of being in power the SNP are running a budget deficit of nearly 10% per annum, greater than that of the UK.
What a shame.
To be clear not asking for a friend.
Not sure I understand how that would work but assume Merkel would be displeased
Twat
Say 'David Cameron was right about Twitter and I'm proof of that.'
Screening for right to work is the employers responsibility. If a Romanian doesn't have right to work then they can do what you suggest but no honest employer would hire them - and any that does can face a hefty fine, closure of their business and even prison time.
There's a bit of "have cake and eat it" logic going on where people propose leaving the UK to join the Single Market while keeping a Single Market with the UK. That isn't possible unless the UK has a Single Market with the EU Single Market in which case you're not joining anything.
Perhaps we are going to need some sort of forum for public recantation of stupid remarks that somehow cleans the record and covers all previous idiocies in a cloud of forgetting.
There's no future for UKIP in battling the EU which is why you have more and more referring to Islam/immigration etc instead as its reason to be. Which is treading a very thin line between what there is now and becoming a BNP redux.
http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/ukip
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MMJxV9hO6B0
People are fleeing the U.S to Canada. Wtf ?!?
You will love it.
http://www.thetelegraphandargus.co.uk/news/15089693.Police_respond_to_calls_of_youths_firing_BB_type_gun_at_motorists_in_Bradford/
hmmmmm
I know it's the Express ;-)
http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/766811/Eurozone-crisis-Greece-ditch-euro-US-dollar-Trump-Ted-Malloch
Also not talking about the fact only 15-20% of people used to go to uni, now it is 50%.