Andrew Neil implies Bercow is pompous and self-satisfied? Pot. Kettle. Black.
Not really. Andrew Neil at least has a good line in self deprecation and a modicum of intelligence. He also commands the respect of most politicians - or at least he frightens them. None of those things can be said about the Bercow.
Not my view of either man. Neil always gives the impression that every programme he's in is about him, in the same way that Paxman used to - the less in-your-face interviewers like Marr get more useful information out IMO. And Bercow is really good at self-deprecation. Are you mainly going on seeing him at PMQs? That's a bear-garden in which nobody comes out consistnetly well.
4) polls have been wrong before and often underestimate Republicans.....2010 polls had Dems winning but they didn't.
5) Democrats will screw up.
Nothing the Democrats do will make the slightest difference if Trump's approval rating is underwater, they will make big gains regardless
I wouldn't underestimate their ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Midterm elections have zero to do with the opposition party, never have, never will. They are entirely to do with the approval rating of the President at the time. That is why Reagan, Clinton and Obama all lost large numbers of House seats in their first midterms because their approval rating was relatively low but George W Bush made gains in 2002 because his approval rating was high after 9/11 (albeit losing the House in 2006 once his approval rating had collapsed)
Fake news ....everybody knows trump is super popular, as are all his policies and as a result so are the republicans.
Trump's win is great for him and his supporters but the worst possible result for the Republican Party, they are now at risk of losing the House in 2018, the Senate in 2020 and scores of state legislatures and governorships. Had Hillary won in 2016 the GOP would be likely to have increased their majority in Congress in 2018
Had Hillary won, the Republicans might well be looking at 2/3 majorities in the House and Senate in 2018.
As it is, the Democrats should be favourites to win back the House, but the Senate should see Republican gains. Statewide contests might not be so good for the Democrats. They'll make gains, but most of the legislatures they used to hold in the South are gone for good.
Fairford North on Cotswold (Con defence, caused by resignation of sitting member) Result: Liberal Democrat 610 (68% +40%), Conservative 270 (30% -21%), Green Party 16 (2%, no candidate in 2015) Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 340 (38%) on a swing of 30.5% from Conservative to Liberal Democrat
When Harry put up the local by-elections thread, I suggested that his prediction of a Tory win doubtful. Someone wrote in saying because UKIP was not putting up a candidate , this would help the Tories.
My foot, it did! Tories are toxic. This is even before the £60bn "bill" for Brexit is divulged to the British people.
Excellent performance here by the team here and in North Norfolk. The usual snide comments from the usual suspects notwithstanding, the way back for the LDs will be literally a seat at a time slowly building and growing and it will take time.
No one in the party is under any illusion there is any "quick fix" - each election fought and won is part of that journey. In some areas, recovery is built on a campaigning history but new areas, which had not previously been fertile territory for the Party, are appearing as a group of activists, often post-2015 GE members, are getting together and working a Council seat.
That's how it happens - the right people in the right place at the right time.
I think the Brexit fallout is underestimated. There will be no deal, as this government cannot politically accept the legacy payments [ £40bn - 60bn ], depending on who do you believe.
Therefore, no agreement - result: WTO rules plus a court case. It is surprising how little attention has been paid regarding WTO tariffs. They come out with silly re9marks like free trade with the US. There is hardly any tariff between the US and the EU today anyway!
Fertile territory for the Liberals. Surprisingly many Socialists will support the free trade Liberals.
No. Crashing out to WTO is unthinkable. May would face a confidence vote if that were proposed. We will retain EEA membership, at least as an an interim measure, and so single market priilages will be preserved. A FTA will become a longer term goal (but may never happen.) Brexit will be fairly soft, regardless of what people are saying right now.
Fairford North on Cotswold (Con defence, caused by resignation of sitting member) Result: Liberal Democrat 610 (68% +40%), Conservative 270 (30% -21%), Green Party 16 (2%, no candidate in 2015) Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 340 (38%) on a swing of 30.5% from Conservative to Liberal Democrat
When Harry put up the local by-elections thread, I suggested that his prediction of a Tory win doubtful. Someone wrote in saying because UKIP was not putting up a candidate , this would help the Tories.
My foot, it did! Tories are toxic. This is even before the £60bn "bill" for Brexit is divulged to the British people.
Excellent performance here by the team here and in North Norfolk. The usual snide comments from the usual suspects notwithstanding, the way back for the LDs will be literally a seat at a time slowly building and growing and it will take time.
No one in the party is under any illusion there is any "quick fix" - each election fought and won is part of that journey. In some areas, recovery is built on a campaigning history but new areas, which had not previously been fertile territory for the Party, are appearing as a group of activists, often post-2015 GE members, are getting together and working a Council seat.
That's how it happens - the right people in the right place at the right time.
I think the Brexit fallout is underestimated. There will be no deal, as this government cannot politically accept the legacy payments [ £40bn - 60bn ], depending on who do you believe.
Therefore, no agreement - result: WTO rules plus a court case. It is surprising how little attention has been paid regarding WTO tariffs. They come out with silly re9marks like free trade with the US. There is hardly any tariff between the US and the EU today anyway!
Fertile territory for the Liberals. Surprisingly many Socialists will support the free trade Liberals.
No. Crashing out to WTO is unthinkable. May would face a confidence vote if that were proposed. We will retain EEA membership, at least as an an interim measure, and so single market priilages will be preserved. A FTA will become a longer term goal (but may never happen.) Brexit will be fairly soft, regardless of what people are saying right now.
No chance.
Hard Brexit is nailed on. WTO terms are not guaranteed as require EU approval.
in practice I do not expect tarrifs, but the non tarrif barriers will deter trade. After all, when has a trading block breaking up ever done anything other than reduce international trade?
@PolhomeEditor: All Labour MPs who broke the 3-line whip on the Article 50 bill to be given formal warnings, but all frontbenchers will keep their jobs.
The Labour Party as a Parliamentary force is dead. It is an ex-party.
Why is that any different to Autumn 1971 when 69 Labour MPs - including Deputy Leader Roy Jenkins - ignored a 3-line whip to support the Heath Govt's EEC application?
Fake news ....everybody knows trump is super popular, as are all his policies and as a result so are the republicans.
Trump's win is great for him and his supporters but the worst possible result for the Republican Party, they are now at risk of losing the House in 2018, the Senate in 2020 and scores of state legislatures and governorships. Had Hillary won in 2016 the GOP would be likely to have increased their majority in Congress in 2018
Had Hillary won, the Republicans might well be looking at 2/3 majorities in the House and Senate in 2018.
As it is, the Democrats should be favourites to win back the House, but the Senate should see Republican gains. Statewide contests might not be so good for the Democrats. They'll make gains, but most of the legislatures they used to hold in the South are gone for good.
Agree on the first paragraph. On the House the Democrats are certainly favourites to take back the House, the Senate has a very pro GOP map but if the tide is against them they may only pick up one or 2 seats and 2020 is a far more favourable map for the Democrats. I agree the deep South is probably lost for the Democrats for the time being but given how low their representation is across states across the country after the Obama years they would happily settle for a recovery in the blue and purple states first
Andrew Neil implies Bercow is pompous and self-satisfied? Pot. Kettle. Black.
Not really. Andrew Neil at least has a good line in self deprecation and a modicum of intelligence. He also commands the respect of most politicians - or at least he frightens them. None of those things can be said about the Bercow.
Not my view of either man. Neil always gives the impression that every programme he's in is about him, in the same way that Paxman used to - the less in-your-face interviewers like Marr get more useful information out IMO. And Bercow is really good at self-deprecation. Are you mainly going on seeing him at PMQs? That's a bear-garden in which nobody comes out consistnetly well.
Sorry but I disagree entirely. Marr and his ilk let the politicians get away with murder and never get anything of value out of them. It takes the real incisive interviewing backed up with actual knowledge that you see from Neil and Paxman to actually pin the politicians down and expose them.
There is a reason front benchers will always prefer Marr to Neil. They know that with Marr they will get an easy ride.
Fairford North on Cotswold (Con defence, caused by resignation of sitting member) Result: Liberal Democrat 610 (68% +40%), Conservative 270 (30% -21%), Green Party 16 (2%, no candidate in 2015) Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 340 (38%) on a swing of 30.5% from Conservative to Liberal Democrat
When Harry put up the local by-elections thread, I suggested that his prediction of a Tory win doubtful. Someone wrote in saying because UKIP was not putting up a candidate , this would help the Tories.
My foot, it did! Tories are toxic. This is even before the £60bn "bill" for Brexit is divulged to the British people.
Excellent performance here by the team here and in North Norfolk. The usual snide comments from the usual suspects notwithstanding, the way back for the LDs will be literally a seat at a time slowly building and growing and it will take time.
No one in the party is under any illusion there is any "quick fix" - each election fought and won is part of that journey. In some areas, recovery is built on a campaigning history but new areas, which had not previously been fertile territory for the Party, are appearing as a group of activists, often post-2015 GE members, are getting together and working a Council seat.
That's how it happens - the right people in the right place at the right time.
I think the Brexit fallout is underestimated. There will be no deal, as this government cannot politically accept the legacy payments [ £40bn - 60bn ], depending on who do you believe.
Therefore, no agreement - result: WTO rules plus a court case. It is surprising how little attention has been paid regarding WTO tariffs. They come out with silly re9marks like free trade with the US. There is hardly any tariff between the US and the EU today anyway!
Fertile territory for the Liberals. Surprisingly many Socialists will support the free trade Liberals.
No. Crashing out to WTO is unthinkable. May would face a confidence vote if that were proposed. We will retain EEA membership, at least as an an interim measure, and so single market priilages will be preserved. A FTA will become a longer term goal (but may never happen.) Brexit will be fairly soft, regardless of what people are saying right now.
We will not retain EEA membership if we do not join EFTA and to do so requires freedom of movement, something that May has made one of her red lines. I am afraid that no matter how much you and might want EEA membership it is extremely unlikely now to happen.
"Are we witnessing the strange, lingering death of Labour England? In Stoke-on-Trent, Matthew Engel finds a party struggling to answer the simplest questions"
Hard Brexit is nailed on. WTO terms are not guaranteed as require EU approval.
in practice I do not expect tarrifs, but the non tarrif barriers will deter trade. After all, when has a trading block breaking up ever done anything other than reduce international trade?
Wrong I am afraid. WTO membership does not require EU approval as we are a member of the WTO independent of the EU. Whilst we remain a member of the EU we have ceded our voting and negotiating rights to the EU but once we leave we regain those.
Hard Brexit is nailed on. WTO terms are not guaranteed as require EU approval.
in practice I do not expect tarrifs, but the non tarrif barriers will deter trade. After all, when has a trading block breaking up ever done anything other than reduce international trade?
Wrong I am afraid. WTO membership does not require EU approval as we are a member of the WTO independent of the EU. Whilst we remain a member of the EU we have ceded our voting and negotiating rights to the EU but once we leave we regain those.
Fake news ....everybody knows trump is super popular, as are all his policies and as a result so are the republicans.
Trump's win is great for him and his supporters but the worst possible result for the Republican Party, they are now at risk of losing the House in 2018, the Senate in 2020 and scores of state legislatures and governorships. Had Hillary won in 2016 the GOP would be likely to have increased their majority in Congress in 2018
Had Hillary won, the Republicans might well be looking at 2/3 majorities in the House and Senate in 2018.
As it is, the Democrats should be favourites to win back the House, but the Senate should see Republican gains. Statewide contests might not be so good for the Democrats. They'll make gains, but most of the legislatures they used to hold in the South are gone for good.
Agree on the first paragraph. On the House the Democrats are certainly favourites to take back the House, the Senate has a very pro GOP map but if the tide is against them they may only pick up one or 2 seats and 2020 is a far more favourable map for the Democrats. I agree the deep South is probably lost for the Democrats for the time being but given how low their representation is across states across the country after the Obama years they would happily settle for a recovery in the blue and purple states first
The Democrats' Senate problem is that small, rural, White States are heavily overrepresented. The Dakotas count the same as California and New York. That wasn't a problem when the Democrats were willing to appeal to voters in such States. Now that they view them as Deplorables, it's an ongoing problem.
Wrong I am afraid. WTO membership does not require EU approval as we are a member of the WTO independent of the EU.
Yes and no.
If we want to trade "on WTO terms" we need to negotiate schedules. And those schedules have to be agreed by the other members of the WTO, including the EU.
Fairford North on Cotswold (Con defence, caused by resignation of sitting member) Result: Liberal Democrat 610 (68% +40%), Conservative 270 (30% -21%), Green Party 16 (2%, no candidate in 2015) Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 340 (38%) on a swing of 30.5% from Conservative to Liberal Democrat
When Harry put up the local by-elections thread, I suggested that his prediction of a Tory win doubtful. Someone wrote in saying because UKIP was not putting up a candidate , this would help the Tories.
My foot, it did! Tories are toxic. This is even before the £60bn "bill" for Brexit is divulged to the British people.
Excellent performance here by the team here and in North Norfolk. The usual snide comments from the usual suspects notwithstanding, the way back for the LDs will be literally a seat at a time slowly building and growing and it will take time.
No one in the party is under any illusion That's how it happens - the right people in the right place at the right time.
I think the Brexit fallout is underestimated. There will be no deal, as this government cannot politically accept the legacy payments [ £40bn - 60bn ], depending on who do you believe.
Therefore, no agreement - result: WTO rules plus a court case. It is surprising how little attention has been paid regarding WTO tariffs. They come out with silly re9marks like free trade with the US. There is hardly any tariff between the US and the EU today anyway!
Fertile territory for the Liberals. Surprisingly many Socialists will support the free trade Liberals.
No. Crashing out to WTO is unthinkable. May would face a confidence vote if that were proposed. We will retain EEA membership, at least as an an interim measure, and so single market priilages will be preserved. A FTA will become a longer term goal (but may never happen.) Brexit will be fairly soft, regardless of what people are saying right now.
We will not retain EEA membership if we do not join EFTA and to do so requires freedom of movement, something that May has made one of her red lines. I am afraid that no matter how much you and might want EEA membership it is extremely unlikely now to happen.
Switzerland is in EFTA but not the EEA although it has bilateral agreements with the latter, it has also recently imposed a requirement that local workers get first preference on jobs
Fairford North on Cotswold (Con defence, caused by resignation of sitting member) Result: Liberal Democrat 610 (68% +40%), Conservative 270 (30% -21%), Green Party 16 (2%, no candidate in 2015) Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 340 (38%) on a swing of 30.5% from Conservative to Liberal Democrat
When Harry put up the local by-elections thread, I suggested that his prediction of a Tory win doubtful. Someone wrote in saying because UKIP was not putting up a candidate , this would help the Tories.
My foot, it did! Tories are toxic. This is even before the £60bn "bill" for Brexit is divulged to the British people.
Excellent performance here by the team here and in North Norfolk. The usual snide comments from the usual suspects notwithstanding, the way back for the LDs will be literally a seat at a time slowly building and growing and it will take time.
No one in the party is under any illusion there is any "quick fix" - each election fought and won is part of that journey. In some areas, recovery is built on a campaigning history but new areas, which had not previously been fertile territory for the Party, are appearing as a group of activists, often post-2015 GE members, are getting together and working a Council seat.
That's how it happens - the right people in the right place at the right time.
I think the Brexit fallout is underestimated. There will be no deal, as this government cannot politically accept the legacy payments [ £40bn - 60bn ], depending on who do you believe.
Therefore, no agreement - result: WTO rules plus a court case. It is surprising how little attention has been paid regarding WTO tariffs. They come out with silly re9marks like free trade with the US. There is hardly any tariff between the US and the EU today anyway!
Fertile territory for the Liberals. Surprisingly many Socialists will support the free trade Liberals.
No. Crashing out to WTO is unthinkable. May would face a confidence vote if that were proposed. We will retain EEA membership, at least as an an interim measure, and so single market priilages will be preserved. A FTA will become a longer term goal (but may never happen.) Brexit will be fairly soft, regardless of what people are saying right now.
Think you may be underestimating the political imperatives ( on the Tory bank benches which is what matters here) to control immigration. Think the choice is hardish via negotiated settlement, rock hard through settlement at the last minute gone wrong, or diamond hard. Soft ain't happening.
@BethRigby: BREAK - Reuters reporting that White House is not planning to escalate travel ban suspension to supreme court, according to senior official
As long as what Bercow has done is legal---whatever that means here---then I support him. Although I'm no royalist, this petition expresses my feelings: https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/171928/
Bercow is a Hero. We want a statue built in his honour.
I know you can't forgive past wrongs - go look up Bercows early years ;-) see if he still a hero to you - lol
Switzerland is in EFTA but not the EEA although it has bilateral agreements with the latter, it has also recently imposed a requirement that local workers get first preference on jobs
If you look back I was specifically answering the claim from Peter that we would stay in the EEA. You can be in EFTA without being in the EEA but you cannot be in the EEA outside of the EU without being in EFTA. The whole treaty is based on being in either one or the other.
@BethRigby: BREAK - Reuters reporting that White House is not planning to escalate travel ban suspension to supreme court, according to senior official
I guess they are just going to draft a new one
Interesting. I wonder if they'll be keeping the blanket ban on people from the same countries?
Wrong I am afraid. WTO membership does not require EU approval as we are a member of the WTO independent of the EU.
Yes and no.
If we want to trade "on WTO terms" we need to negotiate schedules. And those schedules have to be agreed by the other members of the WTO, including the EU.
Except the EU has operated without negotiating schedules since the expansion of 2004. It is in effect operating without agreement for 10 of its members.
Fake news ....everybody knows trump is super popular, as are all his policies and as a result so are the republicans.
Trump's win is great for him and his supporters but the worst possible result for the Republican Party, they are now at risk of losing the House in 2018, the Senate in 2020 and scores of state legislatures and governorships. Had Hillary won in 2016 the GOP would be likely to have increased their majority in Congress in 2018
Had Hillary won, the Republicans might well be looking at 2/3 majorities in the House and Senate in 2018.
As it is, the Democrats should be favourites to win back the House, but the Senate should see Republican gains. Statewide contests might not be so good for the Democrats. They'll make gains, but most of the legislatures they used to hold in the South are gone for good.
Agree on the first paragraph. On the House the Democrats are certainly favourites to take back the House, the Senate has a very pro GOP map but if the tide is against them they may only pick up one or 2 seats and 2020 is a far more favourable map for the Democrats. I agree the deep South is probably lost for the Democrats for the time being but given how low their representation is across states across the country after the Obama years they would happily settle for a recovery in the blue and purple states first
The Democrats' Senate problem is that small, rural, White States are heavily overrepresented. The Dakotas count the same as California and New York. That wasn't a problem when the Democrats were willing to appeal to voters in such States. Now that they view them as Deplorables, it's an ongoing problem.
Maybe but if they can minimise their losses in 2018 they have a good chance of picking up seats in states like Colorado, Iowa and North Carolina they lost in 2014 and perhaps even picking up Maine. Though of course you are right that the Senate will be a harder pick-up for them than the House or even the Presidency as it does not reflect population with each state getting each representation as well as the fact that only 1/3 of Senate seats are up each election year. In 2010 the GOP won the House but took 4 years to take the Senate and the Democrats could have the same wait
Jeremy Hunt on the News at Ten saying there isn't a silver bullet for the NHS.
Maybe he could order some. That would sort out bed-blockers....
Using the old 'money isn't everything' line, eh? Funny they never mention that when Labour propose taxing the rich or complain about bankers bonuses....
Fairford North on Cotswold (Con defence, caused by resignation of sitting member) Result: Liberal Democrat 610 (68% +40%), Conservative 270 (30% -21%), Green Party 16 (2%, no candidate in 2015) Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 340 (38%) on a swing of 30.5% from Conservative to Liberal Democrat
When Harry put up the local by-elections thread, I suggested that his prediction of a Tory win doubtful. Someone wrote in saying because UKIP was not putting up a candidate , this would help the Tories.
My foot, it did! Tories are toxic. This is even before the £60bn "bill" for Brexit is divulged to the British people.
Lib Dems got extra 90 votes, didn't they?
What happened to the Tories ? They stayed at home. Why ?
Maybe they think lib dems good at keeping out Syrian refugee's.
As long as what Bercow has done is legal---whatever that means here---then I support him. Although I'm no royalist, this petition expresses my feelings: https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/171928/
Bercow is a Hero. We want a statue built in his honour.
I know you can't forgive past wrongs - go look up Bercows early years ;-) see if he still a hero to you - lol
Bercow is now about as far on the Left as he was far on the Right in 1982.
Fairford North on Cotswold (Con defence, caused by resignation of sitting member) Result: Liberal Democrat 610 (68% +40%), Conservative 270 (30% -21%), Green Party 16 (2%, no candidate in 2015) Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 340 (38%) on a swing of 30.5% from Conservative to Liberal Democrat
W
My foot, it did! Tories are toxic. This is even before the £60bn "bill" for Brexit is divulged to the British people.
Excellent performance here by the team here and in North Norfolk. The usual snide comments from the usual suspects notwithstanding, the way back for the LDs will be literally a seat at a time slowly building and growing and it will take time.
No one in the party is under any illusion there is any "quick fix" - each election fought and won is part of that journey. In some areas, recovery is built on a campaigning history but new areas, which had not previously been fertile territory for the Party, are appearing as a group of activists, often post-2015 GE members, are getting together and working a Council seat.
That's how it happens - the right people in the right place at the right time.
I think the Brexit fallout is underestimated. There will be no deal, as this government cannot politically accept the legacy payments [ £40bn - 60bn ], depending on who do you believe.
Therefore, no agreement - result: WTO rules plus a court case. It is surprising how little attention has been paid regarding WTO tariffs. They come out with silly re9marks like free trade with the US. There is hardly any tariff between the US and the EU today anyway!
Fertile territory for the Liberals. Surprisingly many Socialists will support the free trade Liberals.
No. Crashing out to WTO is unthinkable. May would face a confidence vote if that were proposed. We will retain EEA membership, at least as an an interim measure, and so single market priilages will be preserved. A FTA will become a longer term goal (but may never happen.) Brexit will be fairly soft, regardless of what people are saying right now.
We will not retain EEA membership if we do not join EFTA and to do so requires freedom of movement, something that May has made one of her red lines. I am afraid that no matter how much you and might want EEA membership it is extremely unlikely now to happen.
The moderate majority in parliament will grow in influence as the negotiations proceed; we are at peak hard Brexit right now. I really do not think parliament would wave through the 'no deal and crash out' policy some lunatics seem to relish.
Wrong I am afraid. WTO membership does not require EU approval as we are a member of the WTO independent of the EU.
Yes and no.
If we want to trade "on WTO terms" we need to negotiate schedules. And those schedules have to be agreed by the other members of the WTO, including the EU.
@BethRigby: BREAK - Reuters reporting that White House is not planning to escalate travel ban suspension to supreme court, according to senior official
I guess they are just going to draft a new one
So he couldn't even be honest when he said "I'll see you in court" to a bunch of lawyers and judges?
Has he actually committed an impeachble offence, or is this just wishful thinking?
I don't think he has. I do think it shows just how much of a polarising figure he is though. I thought the most interesting finding is that Trump voters think he should be able to overturn Court decisions. And that voters are increasingly siding with the media over Trump....
As long as what Bercow has done is legal---whatever that means here---then I support him. Although I'm no royalist, this petition expresses my feelings: https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/171928/
Bercow is a Hero. We want a statue built in his honour.
I know you can't forgive past wrongs - go look up Bercows early years ;-) see if he still a hero to you - lol
Bercow is now about as far on the Left as he was far on the Right in 1982.
You're probably right,I blame the wife for the new bercow ;-)
The moderate majority in parliament will grow in influence as the negotiations proceed; we are at peak hard Brexit right now. I really do not think parliament would wave through the 'no deal and crash out' policy some lunatics seem to relish.
Oh I would be delighted if that were the case but I am afraid I don't see it happening. As I said to stay in the EEA we would have to move from the EU to EFTA and I am not now sure there is the stomach for that on either side.
Remember that once article 50 is declared, so long as there have been no amendments to the current bill as it stands, the only option that will be given to Parliament at the end of the process will be to accept whatever deal May has negotiated or drop out with no deal. Unless May has a change of heart (possible I suppose but I see no sign of it at present) the deal she comes back with is very unlikely to include continued single market membership.
Switzerland is in EFTA but not the EEA although it has bilateral agreements with the latter, it has also recently imposed a requirement that local workers get first preference on jobs
If you look back I was specifically answering the claim from Peter that we would stay in the EEA. You can be in EFTA without being in the EEA but you cannot be in the EEA outside of the EU without being in EFTA. The whole treaty is based on being in either one or the other.
I would agree our relationship is more likely to be the former than the latter
Anyone else think there's a decent chance Trump goes from Stalin to Mr Bean over the next four years? (Apologies to Vince Cable)
At some point he will want something the fiscal conservatives in Congress don't and there will be open warfare on Twitter.
The whole operation has been amateur hour from day one - if they can't deliver he will be a frustrated tomato cheeked Oompa Loompa lampooned left and right
The moderate majority in parliament will grow in influence as the negotiations proceed; we are at peak hard Brexit right now. I really do not think parliament would wave through the 'no deal and crash out' policy some lunatics seem to relish.
Oh I would be delighted if that were the case but I am afraid I don't see it happening. As I said to stay in the EEA we would have to move from the EU to EFTA and I am not now sure there is the stomach for that on either side.
Remember that once article 50 is declared, so long as there have been no amendments to the current bill as it stands, the only option that will be given to Parliament at the end of the process will be to accept whatever deal May has negotiated or drop out with no deal. Unless May has a change of heart (possible I suppose but I see no sign of it at present) the deal she comes back with is very unlikely to include continued single market membership.
Things do look grim at the moment, you are right. I expect the party and the deep state to get to grips with the full extent of the consequences of a disorderly exit - the long-term damage to the country's reputation as well as logistical chaos and economic damage. May would be removed from office if she was determined to go ahead with it. Quite how, I'm not sure.
As long as what Bercow has done is legal---whatever that means here---then I support him. Although I'm no royalist, this petition expresses my feelings: https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/171928/
Bercow is a Hero. We want a statue built in his honour.
I know you can't forgive past wrongs - go look up Bercows early years ;-) see if he still a hero to you - lol
Bercow is now about as far on the Left as he was far on the Right in 1982.
You're probably right,I blame the wife for the new bercow ;-)
That would be the same wife who cheated on him with his cousin
Pienaar in Stoke on News at Ten. Labour "in trouble" in Stoke, fighting "a hard struggle to survive in Copeland" - on nuclear power and Corbyn.
I suspect that is bunkum.
The media like to claim that things are more interesting than they actually prove to be. Many a by - election is said to be close and in reality is not at all. That said a Labour defeat in both would be good if it gets rid of the useless Corbyn. Labour needs to get a good leader and take the fight to the Tories because Labour are just not getting their message across at the moment even when it is a good message.
As long as what Bercow has done is legal---whatever that means here---then I support him. Although I'm no royalist, this petition expresses my feelings: https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/171928/
Bercow is a Hero. We want a statue built in his honour.
I know you can't forgive past wrongs - go look up Bercows early years ;-) see if he still a hero to you - lol
Bercow is now about as far on the Left as he was far on the Right in 1982.
You're probably right,I blame the wife for the new bercow ;-)
That would be the same wife who cheated on him with his cousin
Keeping it in the family like the theme song to Bread!
The moderate majority in parliament will grow in influence as the negotiations proceed; we are at peak hard Brexit right now. I really do not think parliament would wave through the 'no deal and crash out' policy some lunatics seem to relish.
Oh I would be delighted if that were the case but I am afraid I don't see it happening. As I said to stay in the EEA we would have to move from the EU to EFTA and I am not now sure there is the stomach for that on either side.
Remember that once article 50 is declared, so long as there have been no amendments to the current bill as it stands, the only option that will be given to Parliament at the end of the process will be to accept whatever deal May has negotiated or drop out with no deal. Unless May has a change of heart (possible I suppose but I see no sign of it at present) the deal she comes back with is very unlikely to include continued single market membership.
Things do look grim at the moment, you are right. I expect the party and the deep state to get to grips with the full extent of the consequences of a disorderly exit - the long-term damage to the country's reputation as well as logistical chaos and economic damage. May would be removed from office if she was determined to go ahead with it. Quite how, I'm not sure.
Tories would certainly remove May if she did not control free movement
Pienaar in Stoke on News at Ten. Labour "in trouble" in Stoke, fighting "a hard struggle to survive in Copeland" - on nuclear power and Corbyn.
I suspect that is bunkum.
The media like to make claim that things are more interesting than they actually prove to be. Many a by - election is said to be close and in reality is not at all. That said Labour defeat in both would be good if it gets rid of the useless Corbyn. Labour needs to get a good leader and take the fight to the Tories because Labour are just not getting their message across at the moment even when it is a good message.
On current polling Copeland should be neck and neck between the Tories and Labour but Labour should hold Stoke with a reduced majority over UKIP but we shall see. I expect Corbyn survives regardless though if he loses both the pressure will be on him certainly to have a good performance in the local elections in May
As long as what Bercow has done is legal---whatever that means here---then I support him. Although I'm no royalist, this petition expresses my feelings: https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/171928/
Bercow is a Hero. We want a statue built in his honour.
I know you can't forgive past wrongs - go look up Bercows early years ;-) see if he still a hero to you - lol
Bercow is now about as far on the Left as he was far on the Right in 1982.
You're probably right,I blame the wife for the new bercow ;-)
That would be the same wife who cheated on him with his cousin
Keeping it in the family like the theme song to Bread!
Trump's win is great for him and his supporters but the worst possible result for the Republican Party, they are now at risk of losing the House in 2018, the Senate in 2020 and scores of state legislatures and governorships. Had Hillary won in 2016 the GOP would be likely to have increased their majority in Congress in 2018
Had Hillary won, the Republicans might well be looking at 2/3 majorities in the House and Senate in 2018.
As it is, the Democrats should be favourites to win back the House, but the Senate should see Republican gains. Statewide contests might not be so good for the Democrats. They'll make gains, but most of the legislatures they used to hold in the South are gone for good.
Agree on the first paragraph. On the House the Democrats are certainly favourites to take back the House, the Senate has a very pro GOP map but if the tide is against them they may only pick up one or 2 seats and 2020 is a far more favourable map for the Democrats. I agree the deep South is probably lost for the Democrats for the time being but given how low their representation is across states across the country after the Obama years they would happily settle for a recovery in the blue and purple states first
The Democrats' Senate problem is that small, rural, White States are heavily overrepresented. The Dakotas count the same as California and New York. That wasn't a problem when the Democrats were willing to appeal to voters in such States. Now that they view them as Deplorables, it's an ongoing problem.
Maybe but if they can minimise their losses in 2018 they have a good chance of picking up seats in states like Colorado, Iowa and North Carolina they lost in 2014 and perhaps even picking up Maine. Though of course you are right that the Senate will be a harder pick-up for them than the House or even the Presidency as it does not reflect population with each state getting each representation as well as the fact that only 1/3 of Senate seats are up each election year. In 2010 the GOP won the House but took 4 years to take the Senate and the Democrats could have the same wait
The real prize is not the midterms, not even the Presidency in 2020, but the state legislatures that will be elected in that year, a census year. This means the 2020 legislatures will have the task of drawing up the state and Congressional boundaries that will be in effect for the next decade. One of the reasons why the Republicans have had a built in advantage in Congressional elections since 2010 is that they did very well in the state elections of that year (along with the Congressional midterms), which meant they got to draw many of the post-2010-census districts.
The moderate majority in parliament will grow in influence as the negotiations proceed; we are at peak hard Brexit right now. I really do not think parliament would wave through the 'no deal and crash out' policy some lunatics seem to relish.
Oh I would be delighted if that were the case but I am afraid I don't see it happening. As I said to stay in the EEA we would have to move from the EU to EFTA and I am not now sure there is the stomach for that on either side.
Remember that once article 50 is declared, so long as there have been no amendments to the current bill as it stands, the only option that will be given to Parliament at the end of the process will be to accept whatever deal May has negotiated or drop out with no deal. Unless May has a change of heart (possible I suppose but I see no sign of it at present) the deal she comes back with is very unlikely to include continued single market membership.
Things do look grim at the moment, you are right. I expect the party and the deep state to get to grips with the full extent of the consequences of a disorderly exit - the long-term damage to the country's reputation as well as logistical chaos and economic damage. May would be removed from office if she was determined to go ahead with it. Quite how, I'm not sure.
May's position is very strong. No one is going to remove her from office.
The moderate majority in parliament will grow in influence as the negotiations proceed; we are at peak hard Brexit right now. I really do not think parliament would wave through the 'no deal and crash out' policy some lunatics seem to relish.
Oh I would be delighted if that were the case but I am afraid I don't see it happening. As I said to stay in the EEA we would have to move from the EU to EFTA and I am not now sure there is the stomach for that on either side.
Remember that once article 50 is declared, so long as there have been no amendments to the current bill as it stands, the only option that will be given to Parliament at the end of the process will be to accept whatever deal May has negotiated or drop out with no deal. Unless May has a change of heart (possible I suppose but I see no sign of it at present) the deal she comes back with is very unlikely to include continued single market membership.
Things do look grim at the moment, you are right. I expect the party and the deep state to get to grips with the full extent of the consequences of a disorderly exit - the long-term damage to the country's reputation as well as logistical chaos and economic damage. May would be removed from office if she was determined to go ahead with it. Quite how, I'm not sure.
Control of the borders trumps market access. It's a balance, sure, but that's where the bias is. May cannot survive a namby pamby deal on the border (see Cameron) she can more likely survive a tough trade deal and blaming it on the unreasonable EU.
Anyone else think there's a decent chance Trump goes from Stalin to Mr Bean over the next four years? (Apologies to Vince Cable)
At some point he will want something the fiscal conservatives in Congress don't and there will be open warfare on Twitter.
The whole operation has been amateur hour from day one - if they can't deliver he will be a frustrated tomato cheeked Oompa Loompa lampooned left and right
@SkyNewsBreak: President Trump says he is considering a "brand new order" to ensure travel ban stays in place which could be issued on Monday or Tuesday
@SkyNewsBreak: President Trump says he is considering a "brand new order" to ensure travel ban stays in place which could be issued on Monday or Tuesday
If that's the case I'd expect further legal challenges.
The moderate majority in parliament will grow in influence as the negotiations proceed; we are at peak hard Brexit right now. I really do not think parliament would wave through the 'no deal and crash out' policy some lunatics seem to relish.
Oh I would be delighted if that were the case but I am afraid I don't see it happening. As I said to stay in the EEA we would have to move from the EU to EFTA and I am not now sure there is the stomach for that on either side.
Remember that once article 50 is declared, so long as there have been no amendments to the current bill as it stands, the only option that will be given to Parliament at the end of the process will be to accept whatever deal May has negotiated or drop out with no deal. Unless May has a change of heart (possible I suppose but I see no sign of it at present) the deal she comes back with is very unlikely to include continued single market membership.
Things do look grim at the moment, you are right. I expect the party and the deep state to get to grips with the full extent of the consequences of a disorderly exit - the long-term damage to the country's reputation as well as logistical chaos and economic damage. May would be removed from office if she was determined to go ahead with it. Quite how, I'm not sure.
Control of the borders trumps market access. It's a balance, sure, but that's where the bias is. May cannot survive a namby pamby deal on the border (see Cameron) she can more likely survive a tough trade deal and blaming it on the unreasonable EU.
Avoiding chaos trumps everything. May's position is very strong right now, but once A50 is tabled she will no longer be in control of events. The EU could easily contrive a 'no deal' outcome if they wanted to - or the talks may simply run out of time.
Pienaar in Stoke on News at Ten. Labour "in trouble" in Stoke, fighting "a hard struggle to survive in Copeland" - on nuclear power and Corbyn.
I suspect that is bunkum.
The media like to claim that things are more interesting than they actually prove to be. Many a by - election is said to be close and in reality is not at all. That said a Labour defeat in both would be good if it gets rid of the useless Corbyn. Labour needs to get a good leader and take the fight to the Tories because Labour are just not getting their message across at the moment even when it is a good message.
@SkyNewsBreak: President Trump says he is considering a "brand new order" to ensure travel ban stays in place which could be issued on Monday or Tuesday
Is there anything stopping him continuing to draft slightly different versions?
The moderate majority in parliament will grow in influence as the negotiations proceed; we are at peak hard Brexit right now. I really do not think parliament would wave through the 'no deal and crash out' policy some lunatics seem to relish.
Oh I would be delighted if that were the case but I am afraid I don't see it happening. As I said to stay in the EEA we would have to move from the EU to EFTA and I am not now sure there is the stomach for that on either side.
Remember that once article 50 is declared, so long as there have been no amendments to the current bill as it stands, the only option that will be given to Parliament at the end of the process will be to accept whatever deal May has negotiated or drop out with no deal. Unless May has a change of heart (possible I suppose but I see no sign of it at present) the deal she comes back with is very unlikely to include continued single market membership.
Things do look grim at the moment, you are right. I expect the party and the deep state to get to grips with the full extent of the consequences of a disorderly exit - the long-term damage to the country's reputation as well as logistical chaos and economic damage. May would be removed from office if she was determined to go ahead with it. Quite how, I'm not sure.
May's position is very strong. No one is going to remove her from office.
The moderate majority in parliament will grow in influence as the negotiations proceed; we are at peak hard Brexit right now. I really do not think parliament would wave through the 'no deal and crash out' policy some lunatics seem to relish.
Oh I would be delighted if that were the case but I am afraid I don't see it happening. As I said to stay in the EEA we would have to move from the EU to EFTA and I am not now sure there is the stomach for that on either side.
Remember that once article 50 is declared, so long as there have been no amendments to the current bill as it stands, the only option that will be given to Parliament at the end of the process will be to accept whatever deal May has negotiated or drop out with no deal. Unless May has a change of heart (possible I suppose but I see no sign of it at present) the deal she comes back with is very unlikely to include continued single market membership.
Things do look grim at the moment, you are right. I expect the party and the deep state to get to grips with the full extent of the consequences of a disorderly exit - the long-term damage to the country's reputation as well as logistical chaos and economic damage. May would be removed from office if she was determined to go ahead with it. Quite how, I'm not sure.
Control of the borders trumps market access. It's a balance, sure, but that's where the bias is. May cannot survive a namby pamby deal on the border (see Cameron) she can more likely survive a tough trade deal and blaming it on the unreasonable EU.
Avoiding chaos trumps everything. May's position is very strong right now, but once A50 is tabled she will no longer be in control of events. The EU could easily contrive a 'no deal' outcome if they wanted to - or the talks may simply run out of time.
Is there anything stopping him continuing to draft slightly different versions?
Not sure what wording he needs to change to stop it getting overturned in court again. If he bans some of the people he banned last time, the same claimants will bring the same case. And whatever he does might still get overturned because of his tweets.
The moderate majority in parliament will grow in influence as the negotiations proceed; we are at peak hard Brexit right now. I really do not think parliament would wave through the 'no deal and crash out' policy some lunatics seem to relish.
Oh I would be delighted if that were the case but I am afraid I don't see it happening. As I said to stay in the EEA we would have to move from the EU to EFTA and I am not now sure there is the stomach for that on either side.
Remember that once article 50 is declared, so long as there have been no amendments to the current bill as it stands, the only option that will be given to Parliament at the end of the process will be to accept whatever deal May has negotiated or drop out with no deal. Unless May has a change of heart (possible I suppose but I see no sign of it at present) the deal she comes back with is very unlikely to include continued single market membership.
Things do look grim at the moment, you are right. I expect the party and the deep state to get to grips with the full extent of the consequences of a disorderly exit - the long-term damage to the country's reputation as well as logistical chaos and economic damage. May would be removed from office if she was determined to go ahead with it. Quite how, I'm not sure.
May's position is very strong. No one is going to remove her from office.
Almost as strong as Cameron in May 2015.
Far stronger. The public is not going to rise up in fury towards the Conservatives, because of Brexit. That ship has sailed.
The moderate majority in parliament will grow in influence as the negotiations proceed; we are at peak hard Brexit right now. I really do not think parliament would wave through the 'no deal and crash out' policy some lunatics seem to relish.
Oh I would be delighted if that were the case but I am afraid I don't see it happening. As I said to stay in the EEA we would have to move from the EU to EFTA and I am not now sure there is the stomach for that on either side.
Remember that once article 50 is declared, so long as there have been no amendments to the current bill as it stands, the only option that will be given to Parliament at the end of the process will be to accept whatever deal May has negotiated or drop out with no deal. Unless May has a change of heart (possible I suppose but I see no sign of it at present) the deal she comes back with is very unlikely to include continued single market membership.
Things do look grim at the moment, you are right. I expect the party and the deep state to get to grips with the full extent of the consequences of a disorderly exit - the long-term damage to the country's reputation as well as logistical chaos and economic damage. May would be removed from office if she was determined to go ahead with it. Quite how, I'm not sure.
May's position is very strong. No one is going to remove her from office.
Almost as strong as Cameron in May 2015.
She'll be fine as long as she doesn't lose a referendum then.
The moderate majority in parliament will grow in influence as the negotiations proceed; we are at peak hard Brexit right now. I really do not think parliament would wave through the 'no deal and crash out' policy some lunatics seem to relish.
Oh I would be delighted if that were the case but I am afraid I don't see it happening. As I said to stay in the EEA we would have to move from the EU to EFTA and I am not now sure there is the stomach for that on either side.
Remember that once article 50 is declared, so long as there have been no amendments to the current bill as it stands, the only option that will be given to Parliament at the end of the process will be to accept whatever deal May has negotiated or drop out with no deal. Unless May has a change of heart (possible I suppose but I see no sign of it at present) the deal she comes back with is very unlikely to include continued single market membership.
Things do look grim at the moment, you are right. I expect the party and the deep state to get to grips with the full extent of the consequences of a disorderly exit - the long-term damage to the country's reputation as well as logistical chaos and economic damage. May would be removed from office if she was determined to go ahead with it. Quite how, I'm not sure.
May's position is very strong. No one is going to remove her from office.
Almost as strong as Cameron in May 2015.
Far stronger. The public is not going to rise up in fury towards the Conservatives, because of Brexit. That ship has sailed.
There will be no uprising against Brexit for sure. But the political consequences of mishandling it will be severe. I voted Leave and would do so again, but it would be optimistic to think that the sudden withdrawal of single market membership and the customs union procedures would not be chaotic.
@SkyNewsBreak: President Trump says he is considering a "brand new order" to ensure travel ban stays in place which could be issued on Monday or Tuesday
Is there anything stopping him continuing to draft slightly different versions?
The moderate majority in parliament will grow in influence as the negotiations proceed; we are at peak hard Brexit right now. I really do not think parliament would wave through the 'no deal and crash out' policy some lunatics seem to relish.
Oh I would be delighted if that were the case but I am afraid I don't see it happening. As I said to stay in the EEA we would have to move from the EU to EFTA and I am not now sure there is the stomach for that on either side.
Remember that once article 50 is declared, so long as there have been no amendments to the current bill as it stands, the only option that will be given to Parliament at the end of the process will be to accept whatever deal May has negotiated or drop out with no deal. Unless May has a change of heart (possible I suppose but I see no sign of it at present) the deal she comes back with is very unlikely to include continued single market membership.
Things do look grim at the moment, you are right. I expect the party and the deep state to get to grips with the full extent of the consequences of a disorderly exit - the long-term damage to the country's reputation as well as logistical chaos and economic damage. May would be removed from office if she was determined to go ahead with it. Quite how, I'm not sure.
May's position is very strong. No one is going to remove her from office.
Almost as strong as Cameron in May 2015.
Far stronger. The public is not going to rise up in fury towards the Conservatives, because of Brexit. That ship has sailed.
There will be no uprising against Brexit for sure. But the political consequences of mishandling it will be severe. I voted Leave and would do so again, but it would be optimistic to think that the sudden withdrawal of single market membership and the customs union procedures would not be chaotic.
Customs union membership was always going to go. Even the non EU members of the EEA are not in the customs union because it prevents them being able to make their own trade deals. Anyone who thought that was going to survive really did not understand how the EU works.
Pienaar in Stoke on News at Ten. Labour "in trouble" in Stoke, fighting "a hard struggle to survive in Copeland" - on nuclear power and Corbyn.
I suspect that is bunkum.
The media like to make claim that things are more interesting than they actually prove to be. Many a by - election is said to be close and in reality is not at all. That said Labour defeat in both would be good if it gets rid of the useless Corbyn. Labour needs to get a good leader and take the fight to the Tories because Labour are just not getting their message across at the moment even when it is a good message.
On current polling Copeland should be neck and neck between the Tories and Labour but Labour should hold Stoke with a reduced majority over UKIP but we shall see. I expect Corbyn survives regardless though if he loses both the pressure will be on him certainly to have a good performance in the local elections in May
I suspect that it is only the Labour membership who can dislodge Corbyn as I can't see him going of his own accord. He has the platform he's always craved to pontificate, and that's what he does .... pontificate, pontificate, pontificate .... ad nauseum
@SkyNewsBreak: President Trump says he is considering a "brand new order" to ensure travel ban stays in place which could be issued on Monday or Tuesday
Is there anything stopping him continuing to draft slightly different versions?
Fairford North on Cotswold (Con defence, caused by resignation of sitting member) Result: Liberal Democrat 610 (68% +40%), Conservative 270 (30% -21%), Green Party 16 (2%, no candidate in 2015) Liberal Democrat GAIN from Conservative with a majority of 340 (38%) on a swing of 30.5% from Conservative to Liberal Democrat
When Harry put up the local by-elections thread, I suggested that his prediction of a Tory win doubtful. Someone wrote in saying because UKIP was not putting up a candidate , this would help the Tories.
My foot, it did! Tories are toxic. This is even before the £60bn "bill" for Brexit is divulged to the British people.
Would you like to make a prediction of the national equivalent votes that the Conservatives and LibDems receive in the May local elections ?
To help you I'll point out that the LibDems had over 20% at every round of local elections in non general election years from 1993 to 2009.
Over 20%. That was easy.
Every Thursday from now on, you can predict Liberal gains wherever there is a straight fight between the Libs and the Tories.
Thanks for the answer.
RCS predicted 18% (I think) Mark Senior is going to respond when he's looked into LibDem candidate selection
If there's anyone else who would like to give their prediction of the LibDem NEV in the May local elections please feel free to do so.
From June 1997, the Conservatives gained in local by-elections, sometimes with huge swings. All it meant was they were getting back the seats they should never have lost. Ditto the Lib Dems. They hold 1,900 seats. From 1993-2010, they held 4-5,000.
Indeed.
What happens on Thursday nights is pretty irrelevant.
In May we'll get to see how much progress the LibDems have really made.
The moderate majority in parliament will grow in influence as the negotiations proceed; we are at peak hard Brexit right now. I really do not think parliament would wave through the 'no deal and crash out' policy some lunatics seem to relish.
Oh I would be delighted if that were the case but I am afraid I don't see it happening. As I said to stay in the EEA we would have to move from the EU to EFTA and I am not now sure there is the stomach for that on either side.
Remember that once article 50 is declared, so long as there have been no amendments to the current bill as it stands, the only option that will be given to Parliament at the end of the process will be to accept whatever deal May has negotiated or drop out with no deal. Unless May has a change of heart (possible I suppose but I see no sign of it at present) the deal she comes back with is very unlikely to include continued single market membership.
Things do look grim at the moment, you are right. I expect the party and the deep state to get to grips with the full extent of the consequences of a disorderly exit - the long-term damage to the country's reputation as well as logistical chaos and economic damage. May would be removed from office if she was determined to go ahead with it. Quite how, I'm not sure.
Control of the borders trumps market access. It's a balance, sure, but that's where the bias is. May cannot survive a namby pamby deal on the border (see Cameron) she can more likely survive a tough trade deal and blaming it on the unreasonable EU.
Avoiding chaos trumps everything. May's position is very strong right now, but once A50 is tabled she will no longer be in control of events. The EU could easily contrive a 'no deal' outcome if they wanted to - or the talks may simply run out of time.
Not long to wait and we can all put our crystal balls away, bar Carney who will still need his.
Pienaar in Stoke on News at Ten. Labour "in trouble" in Stoke, fighting "a hard struggle to survive in Copeland" - on nuclear power and Corbyn.
I suspect that is bunkum.
The media like to claim that things are more interesting than they actually prove to be. Many a by - election is said to be close and in reality is not at all. That said a Labour defeat in both would be good if it gets rid of the useless Corbyn. Labour needs to get a good leader and take the fight to the Tories because Labour are just not getting their message across at the moment even when it is a good message.
The moderate majority in parliament will grow in influence as the negotiations proceed; we are at peak hard Brexit right now. I really do not think parliament would wave through the 'no deal and crash out' policy some lunatics seem to relish.
Oh I would be delighted if that were the case but I am afraid I don't see it happening. As I said to stay in the EEA we would have to move from the EU to EFTA and I am not now sure there is the stomach for that on either side.
Remember that once article 50 is declared, so long as there have been no amendments to the current bill as it stands, the only option that will be given to Parliament at the end of the process will be to accept whatever deal May has negotiated or drop out with no deal. Unless May has a change of heart (possible I suppose but I see no sign of it at present) the deal she comes back with is very unlikely to include continued single market membership.
Things do look grim at the moment, you are right. I expect the party and the deep state to get to grips with the full extent of the consequences of a disorderly exit - the long-term damage to the country's reputation as well as logistical chaos and economic damage. May would be removed from office if she was determined to go ahead with it. Quite how, I'm not sure.
May's position is very strong. No one is going to remove her from office.
Almost as strong as Cameron in May 2015.
Far stronger. The public is not going to rise up in fury towards the Conservatives, because of Brexit. That ship has sailed.
There will be no uprising against Brexit for sure. But the political consequences of mishandling it will be severe. I voted Leave and would do so again, but it would be optimistic to think that the sudden withdrawal of single market membership and the customs union procedures would not be chaotic.
Customs union membership was always going to go. Even the non EU members of the EEA are not in the customs union because it prevents them being able to make their own trade deals. Anyone who thought that was going to survive really did not understand how the EU works.
I understand that, but it would not be ideal to see it suddenly disappear in a 'no deal' scenario.
Pienaar in Stoke on News at Ten. Labour "in trouble" in Stoke, fighting "a hard struggle to survive in Copeland" - on nuclear power and Corbyn.
I suspect that is bunkum.
The media like to make claim that things are more interesting than they actually prove to be. Many a by - election is said to be close and in reality is not at all. That said Labour defeat in both would be good if it gets rid of the useless Corbyn. Labour needs to get a good leader and take the fight to the Tories because Labour are just not getting their message across at the moment even when it is a good message.
On current polling Copeland should be neck and neck between the Tories and Labour but Labour should hold Stoke with a reduced majority over UKIP but we shall see. I expect Corbyn survives regardless though if he loses both the pressure will be on him certainly to have a good performance in the local elections in May
If Jezza has the brass neck to shrugg off a vote of confidence by 3/4 of his MPs, he is not going to be bothered by losing a couple of byelections.
Is there anything stopping him continuing to draft slightly different versions?
Not sure what wording he needs to change to stop it getting overturned in court again. If he bans some of the people he banned last time, the same claimants will bring the same case. And whatever he does might still get overturned because of his tweets.
Trump's win is great for him and his supporters but the worst possible result for the Republican Party, they are now at risk of losing the House in 2018, the Senate in 2020 and scores of state legislatures and governorships. Had Hillary won in 2016 the GOP would be likely to have increased their majority in Congress in 2018
Had Hillary won, the Republicans might well be looking at 2/3 majorities in the House and Senate in 2018.
As it is, the Democrats should be favourites to win back the House, but the Senate should see Republican gains. Statewide contests might not be so good for the Democrats. They'll make gains, but most of the legislatures they used to hold in the South are gone for good.
Agree on the first paragraph. On the House the Democrats are certainly favourites to take back the House, the Senate has a very pro GOP map but if the tide is against them they may only pick up one or 2 seats and 2020 is a far more favourable map for the Democrats. I agree the deep South is probably lost for the Democrats for the time being but given how low their representation is across states across the country after the Obama years they would happily settle for a recovery in the blue and purple states first
The Democrats' Senate problem is that small, rural, White States are heavily overrepresented. The Dakotas count the same as California and New York. That wasn't a problem when the Democrats were willing to appeal to voters in such States. Now that they view them as Deplorables, it's an ongoing problem.
Maybe but if they can minimise their losses in 2018 they have a good chance of picking up seats in states like
The real prize is not the midterms, not even the Presidency in 2020, but the state legislatures that will be elected in that year, a census year. This means the 2020 legislatures will have the task of drawing up the state and Congressional boundaries that will be in effect for the next decade. One of the reasons why the Republicans have had a built in advantage in Congressional elections since 2010 is that they did very well in the state elections of that year (along with the Congressional midterms), which meant they got to draw many of the post-2010-census districts.
The state legislatures will be important too but obviously if the Democrats win the House in 2018 that will be pivotal as it means Trump no longer has a GOP Congress
Pienaar in Stoke on News at Ten. Labour "in trouble" in Stoke, fighting "a hard struggle to survive in Copeland" - on nuclear power and Corbyn.
I suspect that is bunkum.
The media like to make claim that things are more interesting than they actually prove to be. Many a by - election is said to be close and in reality is not at all. That said Labour defeat in both would be good if it gets rid of the useless Corbyn. Labour needs to get a good leader and take the fight to the Tories because Labour are just not getting their message across at the moment even when it is a good message.
On current polling Copeland should be neck and neck between the Tories and Labour but Labour should hold Stoke with a reduced majority over UKIP but we shall see. I expect Corbyn survives regardless though if he loses both the pressure will be on him certainly to have a good performance in the local elections in May
I suspect that it is only the Labour membership who can dislodge Corbyn as I can't see him going of his own accord. He has the platform he's always craved to pontificate, and that's what he does .... pontificate, pontificate, pontificate .... ad nauseum
Yes and of course they re elected him by a landslide just 5 months ago
@SkyNewsBreak: President Trump says he is considering a "brand new order" to ensure travel ban stays in place which could be issued on Monday or Tuesday
Is there anything stopping him continuing to draft slightly different versions?
No, he can do that, and the Appeal Court verdict nudged him that way, essentially saying that it wasn't up to them but up to the executive to do any redrafting.
Trump's difficulty is that the court said it thought his campaign rhetoric should be taken into account in any discussion on the merits (which would apply to future orders too), and the rhetoric was explicitly about anti-Muslim action, which is unconsititutional. So he needs to have an order which doesn't appear to be implementation of his campaign rhetoric but something different, yet similar enough to make his base feel he's delivering - e.g. including a non-Muslim country in his ban, such as Venezuala, vaguely citing general unrest there.
What odds are there available that Trump doesn't last his full four years? Of the 45 presidents, Nixon was forced out, four died of natural causes and four were assassinated. That's 20%. Given Trump's age and temperament, anything over 5-1 must be a value bet. I would exclude the possibility of placing the bet and then assassinating Trump; that would be cheating, and I don't approve of violence in any context.
Comments
Warbuton says he knows nothing about it.
As it is, the Democrats should be favourites to win back the House, but the Senate should see Republican gains. Statewide contests might not be so good for the Democrats. They'll make gains, but most of the legislatures they used to hold in the South are gone for good.
' Bercow's nothing. Just ignore him would be the best and easiest policy.'
Just likes to be the centre of attention otherwise known as small man syndrome
Hard Brexit is nailed on. WTO terms are not guaranteed as require EU approval.
in practice I do not expect tarrifs, but the non tarrif barriers will deter trade. After all, when has a trading block breaking up ever done anything other than reduce international trade?
There is a reason front benchers will always prefer Marr to Neil. They know that with Marr they will get an easy ride.
If we want to trade "on WTO terms" we need to negotiate schedules. And those schedules have to be agreed by the other members of the WTO, including the EU.
Some Rangers fans are surprised that 'the Club' is used and not 'The Club' on the statement.
I guess they are just going to draft a new one
Maybe he could order some. That would sort out bed-blockers....
http://www.cityam.com/258821/uk-trade-balance-narrows-fourth-quarter
I doubt our European partners are going to cut themselves off from Treasure Island any time soon.
Remember that once article 50 is declared, so long as there have been no amendments to the current bill as it stands, the only option that will be given to Parliament at the end of the process will be to accept whatever deal May has negotiated or drop out with no deal. Unless May has a change of heart (possible I suppose but I see no sign of it at present) the deal she comes back with is very unlikely to include continued single market membership.
https://twitter.com/gareth_snell/status/829276837067026432
Guess what'll be appearing in tomorrow's thread leader?
At some point he will want something the fiscal conservatives in Congress don't and there will be open warfare on Twitter.
The whole operation has been amateur hour from day one - if they can't deliver he will be a frustrated tomato cheeked Oompa Loompa lampooned left and right
He could be Van Rompuy's son.
The media like to claim that things are more interesting than they actually prove to be. Many a by - election is said to be close and in reality is not at all. That said a Labour defeat in both would be good if it gets rid of the useless Corbyn. Labour needs to get a good leader and take the fight to the Tories because Labour are just not getting their message across at the moment even when it is a good message.
https://twitter.com/mailonline/status/830172633643773960
Now which party was in government from 1997 ?
And which party controlled Stoke council from 1997 ?
And which party did the Stoke MPs represent ?
Get a fvcking grip, media people.
What happens on Thursday nights is pretty irrelevant.
In May we'll get to see how much progress the LibDems have really made.
Though Labour is going to win them both.
Trump's difficulty is that the court said it thought his campaign rhetoric should be taken into account in any discussion on the merits (which would apply to future orders too), and the rhetoric was explicitly about anti-Muslim action, which is unconsititutional. So he needs to have an order which doesn't appear to be implementation of his campaign rhetoric but something different, yet similar enough to make his base feel he's delivering - e.g. including a non-Muslim country in his ban, such as Venezuala, vaguely citing general unrest there.