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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Looking at the 2010 CON voters whom Cameron has to win back
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Looking at the 2010 CON voters whom Cameron has to win back back
There are two groups voters who will decide GE2015 – those who voted Lib Dem in 2010 who now say they are voting LAB, and those who voted for Cameron’s Conservatives who now tell pollsters that they will vote UKIP.
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More of the same old same old. It's axiomatic of simple minds to reduce complex situations to simplistic ones. Reductionism in all forms is invariably full of flaws, and none more so that pb.com's microcosmic psephology.
The GE2015 will NOT be decided by two groups. Sorry Mike. Baloney. Two groups from 2010 may be 'important' but there are scores of other groups who matter, from previous voters who this time won't bother to new voters, the elderly, migrants, expats, postal voters, HS2 residents, wind farm opponents, regional voters e.g. the post Scotland vote fallout etc. etc. etc. Broadly speaking they comprise 'floating voters' and there are millions of them, some of whom voted last time, some of whom didn't; and many of whom did vote either can't remember how they voted, or have forgotten.
Pin it all on two groups as you wish but it's erroneous.
a) Cancel each other out, eg last time Bob voted Lab but Dave had a headache, next time Dave votes Lab but Bob has a headache,
b) Add up to a detectable net change, in which case that change should show up at some point in the polling between elections.
Looking at the YouGov "Issues facing the Country/You/Your family" there are almost no significant differences between current and 2010 Conservatives. The only issue where there may be a difference is "Pensions" - with 2010 conservatives slightly more concerned (Country, 15 (+3), You/Your family 36 (+5)) Everything else is within one or two points between the two groups.
2010 Labour, on the other hand, show bigger differences vs current Labour:
2010 Labour (vs current)
Country:
Economy: 60 (-5)
Immigration: 45 (+7)
You/Your Family:
Pensions: 29 (+4)
There is also greater divergence between current & 2010 LibDems:
Country:
Immigration : 41 (+9)
Housing: 23 (+7)
Pensions: 16 (-4)
You/Your Family:
Health: 38 (+7)
Pensions: 24 (-11)
Immigration: 11 (+9)
Ed Davey said there was no respite in sight for hard-pressed families struggling to pay their fuel bills, adding: ‘I think we will see more price rises.’
The Liberal Democrat minister said Britain was on the verge of agreeing a £50billion French and Chinese investment in new nuclear power, which is expected to drive bills even higher.
And he indicated the Lib Dems will try to block any attempt by David Cameron to reduce so-called green taxes."
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2458393/Energy-bills-rise-wont-cut-green-taxes--minister-Lib-Dem-defies-Cameron-plan-reduce-levies.html#ixzz2hfkUJN84
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Have the LDs booked Martin Day's yellow taxi for 2015?
How many Kippers are to be found among the ranks of those who nowadays say a "plague on all your houses, but at last there's someone who ......."
Since the 2010 general election Brussels has handed down almost 3,600 pieces of new regulation and directives affecting British businesses.
A campaign group said last night that the 13million words contained in the deluge of bureaucracy would take more than 92 days to read in all."
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2458354/3-600-new-laws-years-EU-strangles-UK-firms-Brusselss-addiction-red-tape-laid-bare-revealed-92-DAYS-read-regulations.html#ixzz2hflgUMGWok
Just shows that when a bureaucracy is created, it will create unnecessary work to fill its idle time.
This just tickles me! This guy is brilliant at sticking his fingers up at the 'establishment'
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/culture/art/art-news/10376666/Banksy-sells-original-artworks-at-New-York-stall-for-37.html
That group inevitably contains many who think that the government has not done enough. They are currently disillusioned and some are tempted by UKIP. But look at the tiny numbers who have switched to Labour or the Lib Dems. No one who is still concerned about government borrowing will move to those parties.
If government borrowing and the urgent need to cut the deficit remains such an issue at the next election then the 2010 Conservatives will return to stop the financial incompetents taking charge. The risk for the tories is that the sense of national risk will not be as great. Borrowing will nearly have halved by the time of the election and other factors, such as Europe and immigration, have greater saliance.
Osborne must keep focussed on the debt. His recent speech emphasising the elimination of the deficit is only a staging post with debt repayment thereafter is the correct policy, not only for the country but for the Coalition of voters that put the tories in power. Expect several more such speeches emphasising how much is still to be done in deficit reduction, how the state must shrink and plans for longer term economic stability.
And that is betting without the catastrophic decline in Scottish Conservative fortunes under Thatcher and Major. From two dozen MPs to one dozen to none at all (since restored to the giddy heights of, erm, one). Maybe using Scotland as a guinea pig for unpopular policies was not as clever a wheeze as it first seemed.
What were these warnings? I remember no rise in VAT, no rise in employee NI contributions, no plans to end universal benefits and claims that a lot of savings would be made by focusing on wasteful spending, but I don't remember much talk of cuts.
As Avery has pointed out endless times spending is falling in real terms if not in nominal terms. But as I said many who supported the tories in 2010 think more should have been done in that direction and I am one of them.
POUWAS
a) have any realistic chance of being in power.
b) know how to turn round an economy and improve the Country's finances.
c) have a full spectrum policy approach.
d) believe in individual aspiration rather than state led initiatives.
I also feel that the slow and almost hesitant approach of the coalition is recognised as being a result of the coalition and that unpalatable (for the right) choices are part of sharing power with a non aligned party.
If the Tories have a strong message going into GE 2015 and can convince people that they can deliver if in power by themselves, then they have a good chance of winning back the drifters, and encouraging the stay at homes to come out and vote.
I also feel that part of the strong message should be a commitment to try a minority Government if they don't have an outright majority, although this may be sotto voce to stop scaring the horses.
Countdown - 1 day 1 hour 1 minute
Dear Sir/Madam
I'm still getting the Dacre thread from a few days back when logging on to PB. Are others noting this technical problem or is this now a peculiar feature afflicting the impoverished Scottish nobility of a certain vintage ?
It's notable that in N Ireland, where very often people care very deeply turnouts are much higher, and in spite of suggestions about questionable practices, such as voting early and often, I suspect that these figures are genuine.
He told BBC Radio Wales' Sunday Supplement that without more powers to borrow money, planned £1bn M4 improvements "will not happen".
Mr Jones will raise his concerns with the UK Government in Downing Street later this week.....
Almost a year ago, the commission set up by the UK government and chaired by former assembly clerk Paul Silk, said ministers in Cardiff should be given the power to vary some tax rates.
A decision had been initially expected in the spring.
The first minister was asked if he thought that the Silk recommendations had been permanently kicked into the long grass.
Mr Jones said: "It'd be far better for everybody if they were simply to say - yes we'll accept the Silk recommendations, we can all move on."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-24508756
It will be a disaster for Wales if HMG let Carwyn Jones anywhere near uncontrolled purse strings. Welsh Labour is profligate and has spent over £60m on a loss-making airport that requires an equal or greater sum in infrastructure to make it even a feasible airport, then he can find an equal or greater amount for the M4 improvement that need not cost £1bn.
Carwyn's latest hobby is leading trade missions (he knows nothing about trade) to warm climates and he wants to do that from a Welsh airport. It is a bit like Wales' obesity problem - enlarging their stomachs to fit their unsustainable appetite.
Only Firefox seems to be affected since the last round of vanilla changes.
Mr. Financier, devolution of borrowing rights (to Wale sor Scotland) is a major issue. It cannot be the case that English taxpayers are on the hook for spending/borrowing commitments other parts of the UK make and over which the English have no say.
However the computer I use for PB is not Firefox enabled. Curious.
I wonder how many old and new users PB is losing because of this fault ?
We would need to nail down the definition of "deficit" first though.
In one way I agree with your thought, but it would still be a disaster for the Welsh inhabitants if Welsh Labour had such borrowing rights. They have already frittered away hundreds of millions of EU money with virtually nothing to show for it, very unlike the way that Spain, Ireland and Portugal have used similar money and improved their infrastructure.
BTW many thanks for your F1 insights over the weekend - turned out to be a very interesting race - how much should we learn from that circuit for future circuits?
I'm not against trying to be scientific about this but there's a difference between being analytical and drawing false conclusions, with wild assumptions. If you fire a rocket to the moon and start out a millimetre wrong it will miss by thousands of miles. And I'm afraid Mike's approach is sailing off out into space instead of landing on the surface.
And if you really think that, there's an obvious solution available to you.
RT @GuidoFawkes: Up: 134,289 visitors visited 383,647 times viewing 661,473 pages this week. The top stories 7 were guyfawk.es/187oRq8
And 117k followers on Twitter.
Not so much. Four races left: India, Abu Dhabi, America and Brazil.
India is probably the worst of the lot. Slow, hard to overtake and festooned with limp-wristed, bedwetting run-off areas. I'll check the safety car record beforehand, as that might be an area of interest. Abu Dhabi is slightly less terrible. It's also a slow, stop-start circuit (whereas Japan is fast and free-flowing) but has some close barriers.
The circuits in America and Brazil are a bit different. Only been to America the once, but from memory the circuit does have some fast-flowing sections (mostly sector 1, I think), so Japan might be a fairly useful guide. Interlagos, perhaps counter-intuitively, is actually a pretty slow (and narrow) circuit but is nevertheless fantastic.
The biggest thing to take from Japan is that teams are going to be doing almost no work on their 2013 cars unless such upgrades also have an impact for 2014. There's a tight battle (save the winning slot) in the Constructors, but the rule changes for next year are massive, and if you fall behind from the start that could prevent a team from winning a title it otherwise would've gotten.
So, I expect the status quo to more or less be maintained throughout the season. Red Bull top dog, Mercedes inexplicably going backwards from the grid, Sauber hard to pass (incidentally, the traction and high top speed of the Sauber should, apparently, really help in India), Lotus pretty good etc.
In fact, I think Sauber may have a chance of overhauling Force India. In the last 4 races Sauber have gained 38 points, whereas Force India have acquired 1. Force India are on 62 points, Sauber 45. Given the start of the season they suffered, that would be a fantastic result for the Swiss team.
Apologies for the enormo-answer, but I was just looking at this when you asked the question.
As an example, people trying to start businesses related to bitcoin in the EU currently have the problem that the VAT status is unclear. Poland seem to think that if you sell bitcoins you have to charge VAT on the bitcoins. Germany seemed to think the same, then as of last week thought something different. The EU tried to clear up the status of electronic money before, but understandably they didn't see decentralized virtual currencies coming, so their definition may not fit. What we really need is for the EU to take a look at this and issue a few pages of the kind of rules that are upsetting the Mail so that people know where they stand.
Of course what would be even easier for entrepreneurs would be if there was no such thing as taxation in the first place so there was no need for any rules that anybody had to interpret, but that would have a cost in terms government funding for useful services like the armies that keep the EU safe from the Icelandic hoards.
There's no shortage of a market for complete trash.
See more at: http://www.cityam.com/article/1381721764/miliband-s-policies-have-already-damaged-britain-s-economy#sthash.daiZSILR.Dy8KBUs1.dpuf
"Before he boarded the plane, 37stone Les Price had already been forced to pay for an extra ticket.
The airline’s rules for passengers weighing more than 20stone required him to buy two seats for himself.
But when he got on board, insult was added to injury. For a dismayed Mr Price found his seats for the flight to Ireland were not even next to each other – they were either side of another traveller’s seat. And on his return journey the situation was even more farcical, with his allocated places two rows apart.
Mr Price, 43, had booked his tickets in advance of the flight.
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2457971/37-stone-man-told-buy-2-airline-seats-given-separate-rows.html#ixzz2hgHXUebI
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Off-topic, but this Owen Paterson bloke isn't all daft.
"Mr Paterson told the newspaper: "It's just disgusting that little children are allowed to go blind and die because of a hang-up by a small number of people about this technology."
Vitamin A-enriched rice, or "golden rice" would be a real breakthrough. When I worked for a large pharmaceutical firm, I asked why, when we manufactured tons of vitamin A, children in the third world were being doomed to a life of blindness. Then problem was the usual combination of transport problems and national regulations.
Now this rice is being opposed by the usual combination of middle-class, clueless, know-it-alls who give Tarquin a little protest banner to wave. I suspect the homeopaths are opposing it too (that's for tim).
But the footballing badger is now forgiven.
It is a straightforward choice, Common Sense v Common Purpose
Also the figures quoted by Chote are nominal. A proper comparison of this year's PSNB versus last should be in real terms.
On spending the real vs. nominal is even more important. The budget for Total Managed Expenditure (TME) this year is £720.0 bn in nominal terms and £703.9 bn in real terms (2012-13 June values using ONS deflators released 27 June). Comparative figures for the 2012-13 fiscal year are £675.3 bn (nominal & real).
So your bet against increased spending would imply an undershoot on budget of £44.7 bn (nominal) or £28.6 bn in real terms: or a 6.21% reduction (nominal).
I do think TME will undershoot budget this year but not by over 6%, so no bet here on offered terms.
I am still open to a bet on PSNB once we can fix the details.
UKIP's strategic idiocy in pursuing a broad but shallow level of support has robbed them of a realistic chance of winning seats, and, at this stage, there seems to be no change there. If you win seats at the General Election it would be in spite of the party's electoral strategy rather than because of it.
I agree with the basic sentiment of UKIP (let's leave the EU), but unless you have a chance of winning there's no point me voting for you (especially in this seat, which is essentially Balls vs the Conservatives).
Thanks
http://longplayer.org/what/whatelse/letters.php
I haven't checked, but before the rules were loosened, I suspect that an *even higher proportion* of postal voters were used by the sick and elderly. After all: that is what they are there for: people who can't make it to the polls for a very good reason.
If the rules are tightened, I suspect it will be the sick and elderly who are allowed to continue using them
But it would be interesting if anyone had data on how the mix of PVs changed pre and post the rules change. Otherwise you are just relying on a single data point
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-24516626
would impose a high regulatory burden, but wouldn't have many words, regulations or regulators
Anyway, it's pathetic and ridiculous to claim that women in prison are there just because of men. Women cannot claim equality when it comes to pay and opportunities, and then claim an evil nasty man made them do bad things when it comes to crime.
Great for us conservatives in lib/con marginals that is.
As I said to Mark Senior yesterday, to the type of shrill and insulting response you often get from a lib dem when the light is shone on one of their policies, good luck with that on the doorstep.
There's quite a lot of interesting opinion out there. A sneery STimes intv with Tommy Robinson was totally hammered in the comments. It was very one-sided, but I was surprised at the sympathy he got.
Of course its a fallacy, because labour voted against tightening the postal vote rules.
Want to wear a veil? That's your choice, this is a free society.
Want to march with placards declaring "Death to the West"? We'll let it go ahead.
Whereas, EDL marches are heavily policed and the Danish cartoons were shown nowhere.
Neither set of marches are acceptable, and I believe the cartoons should've been shown, and veils are acceptable with certain exceptions. But freedom only tilts one way. So people are frustrated, and if they try and air a view that is not considered acceptable they're often ignored or called racist (we saw this with Labour's despicable immigration ploy). A head of steam builds up and people want somewhere to express views that the political mainstream don't accept, which may well explain UKIP's rise and the resilience of its support.
UKIP, a top tip: draft a very simple, easily understandably and broad law guaranteeing freedom of speech. The right to criticise, ridicule and mock has been reduced recently, with the rise of the stupid "I am offended" counter-argument, and must be reinforced.
I don't think there's a sensible voter in the land who doesn't think some types of immigration aren't good for the country.
I reckon what voters want is a far, far better system for rewarding the good and deterring the bad. Any party that says basically we have to take the rough with the smooth will be punished at the ballot box, in my view.
Given tim's comments the other day, when the OBR's analysis of the contributions to growth report was published, I'd guess he is going on the PSNB ex RM ex APTF figure, so
2009/10 - £157bn
2010/11 - £139bn
2011/12 - £118bn
2012/13 - £116bn
2013/14 - £120bn ( OBR March Forecast)
This would all be great were it not for the fact that Ozzy is responsible for putting up green taxes.
Interesting, thanks. There's a good summary I googled of the pros and cons here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Golden_rice
- based on this, I'm leaning pro. But then I also support the fluoridation of water in Britain, for exactly the same reasons. Government action to make food and drink healthier, yes! Pleased to see Owen Paterosn join us statists.
Already last yea's borrowing was down, up and down again.
"•In 2012/13, public sector net borrowing excluding temporary effects of financial interventions and also excluding the effects of the transfer of the Royal Mail Pension Plan and the transfers from the Bank of England Asset Purchase Facility Fund was £116.5 billion. This was £2.0 billion lower than in 2011/12."
So the bet would be that the public sector borrowing for the current year excluding the temporary effects of financial interventions , RM pension plan and transfers from the BoE APFF will be less than £116.5bn.
Another problem is that these figures change over time. I think we would need to agree that the first figures published by the OBR after the end of the financial year were determinative even if they are subsequently revised (this is probably in your favour).
Do we have an agreement. If we do what is the normal way of recording it on here?
Will ed be supporting tory attempts to trim green taxes in the face of suicidal lib dem opposition?
That'll be an interesting call for consumer champion ed. wonder which way he will jump.
Real help for small businesses with the NI bill today. 450,000 employers will be taken out of paying NI contributions altogether #business
Green taxes - can argue until the cows come home who brought them in but only one chap can cut them before the GE.
Time to see how big GO's balls are.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2013/10/niall-ferguson-paul-krugman-gets-it-wrong-again-and-again-and-again-why-does-anyone-still-listen-to-him/
It's no change with Populus online
Lab 39=
CON 34=
LD 12 =
UKIP 8 =