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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » First polling on Trump’s UK visit has 49% supporting and 36% opposing
In spite of the massive petition against it and the huge furore and demonstrations within the last 48 hours new UK polling this morning finds that 49% telling a YouGov Times poll that the visit should go ahead with 36% saying it shouldn’t.
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First!0
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I suspect that if it’s felt that the security issues would be so great a polite way of postponing the visit would be created. You can see one of the parties having a minor illness or something of that nature which means that it is postponed.
Bush came after the huge anti-Iraq protests - and had large protests when he was here too:
Tens of thousands of demonstrators in Trafalgar Square cheered and whistled Thursday as a papier-mâché effigy of President Bush, painted gold to resemble the toppled statue of Saddam Hussein, was yanked to the ground at a peaceful rally.
Marching their way through the heart of the city as dusk settled over Big Ben, the protesters expressed their anger over Mr. Bush's state visit, his policy on Iraq and his close alliance with Prime Minister Tony Blair.
The protest, which Scotland Yard said drew 110,000 and the organizers say attracted 200,000, was one of the biggest-ever midweek demonstrations in London. The police lined the streets along the march's route to ensure order, and they largely succeeded.
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/11/21/world/a-region-inflamed-protest-marchers-in-london-denounce-bush-visit.html
It will go ahead.....just ask Twitter (not...)0 -
Be interesting to see how that 49% to 36% breaks out....excluding 'Don't Knows' that's 58:42 in favour.....0
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There is only so many times the same people can scream "its appalling" , "its a disgrace" never mind "he's a bigot" "he's a white supremacist" "he's worse than Hitler" before most of the public stops listening. Some of of these accusations may be true, but the Twitterati and their friends in the media have used this sort of terminology too readily and too frequently and the public is bored with it.0
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Yesterday I posted a link to an article by Dan Hannan outlining the ways to criticise Trump's immigration order - because it was a bad plan, poorly thought through which would have benefited from Congressional scrutiny - rather than simply saying 'Trump's a right wing nutter'.AlsoIndigo said:There is only so many times the same people can scream "its appalling" , "its a disgrace" never mind "he's a bigot" "he's a white supremacist" "he's worse than Hitler" before most of the public stops listening. Some of of these accusations may be true, but the Twitterati and their friends in the media have used this sort of terminology too readily and too frequently and the public is bored with it.
The response? 'Hannan's a right wing nutter' - truly some of these people are beyond help....0 -
Too early to tell. The Paris Agreement is the big one. If he pulls out of that then all bets are off. In any case it this stage the majority doesn't matter. It's about the shift from the left/right paradigm to the open /closed one. On a daily basis respectable British Conservatives turn into protectionist Trumpkin's. British Left liberals look anew at US conservatives defending the genius of the republic. It's how Trump fuels or doesn't this shift that's the primary concern.
Off topic another landmark day. " We're producing more history than we can consume " as Davis said. The Second Reading vote tonight to not only leave Europe but vote to do so overwhelmingly is epochal. Yes the parliamentary procedure will rumble on. Yes the Remain campaign will have at least another two years to run. However the House of Commons, the cockpit of the nation, will have spoken on the principle tonight. It's an historic Rubicon. The consequences of an overwhelmingly pro Remain body heavily voting for something it knows will be a disaster is another story for another day. However it's a profound constitutional inovation.
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Sounds to me like the outrage train has been somewhat derailed. Yet again the mainstream media get the mood of the real public completely wrong with their urban-centric and social media focus. These repeated failures to learn are becoming very tedious.0
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I get the impression (from discussions at work etc over the past couple of days) that there is quiet support for Theresa May and an acceptance that however repugnant Donald Trump is he won the election on a pledge for the kind of arbitrary restrictions on immigration he is now trying to implement. I watched the protests on Facebook and the new 'coalition against Trump' in action: looks like the usual idiots with socialist worker placards saying 'refugees welcome, open the borders, let them in!'. The more independently minded were waving placards of Angela Merkel. These are not people or protests that represent the mainstream of political thinking in this country.
Its not 1936 and Trump isn't Hitler, although in many ways the global situation is as if not more volatile than it was then. The Trump administration is extremely dangerous because his solutions undermine moderate forces throughout the islamic world and pour fuel on the fire of radicals. But we have to also accept that the previous system wasn't working and that the Merkel solution to the refugee crisis was equally flawed, and that islamism is a profound threat to our western values that has to be tackled. I'm afraid to say that given the choice between living under Trump and living under some type of Islamic government I will always choose the former as would I assume the vast majority of posters on here.0 -
I doubt if Trump is greatly admired in the UK. But, people find the criticisms of him to be over the top, and dislike his principal critics.felix said:Sounds to me like the outrage train has been somewhat derailed. Yet again the mainstream media get the mood of the real public completely wrong with their urban-centric and social media focus. These repeated failures to learn are becoming very tedious.
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I'm late to the party on this sublime David Frum piece on Trumpian autocracy. Or what I'm calling postfascism. Doubtless it will have done the rounds here already but it's worth thinking this through for what it will look like in Britain. We've already seen this the secret Nissan Comfort letter. The response to the High Court A50 ruling ( though not in fairness the Supreme Court ruling ) is another example. #indyref2 will shaped by it as well as the Nats, who'll stop at nothing, will quickly learn the lessons and seek to build in the YES base. These are very dark days indeed.
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/03/how-to-build-an-autocracy/513872/#a-c1e8f10d-fa08-40b7-908e-9b4040187b030 -
Are those who live in urban areas not real people?felix said:Sounds to me like the outrage train has been somewhat derailed. Yet again the mainstream media get the mood of the real public completely wrong with their urban-centric and social media focus. These repeated failures to learn are becoming very tedious.
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@CarlotaVance I'm happy to embrace the Bush/Iraq comparisons. Almost every critique of the Iraq invasion was proved completely right. It was a multi Trillion Dollar Catastrophe and the polling moved heavily against it once the occupation got bogged down. Remember that Trump is at least a much a reaction against the GW Bush presidency as the Obama one.
So if today's polls have 49/36 in favour of him visiting " today they ring their bells, tomorrow they'll wrong their hands." I'm happy with those numbers on Day 12.0 -
I'm not a fan either but the news coverage both print and more worryingly, on TV has been extraordinarily biased and almost hysterical. As for the luvvies - they really never learn.Sean_F said:
I doubt if Trump is greatly admired in the UK. But, people find the criticisms of him to be over the top, and dislike his principal critics.felix said:Sounds to me like the outrage train has been somewhat derailed. Yet again the mainstream media get the mood of the real public completely wrong with their urban-centric and social media focus. These repeated failures to learn are becoming very tedious.
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Time for more medication.YellowSubmarine said:I'm late to the party on this sublime David Frum piece on Trumpian autocracy. Or what I'm calling postfascism. Doubtless it will have done the rounds here already but it's worth thinking this through for what it will look like in Britain. We've already seen this the secret Nissan Comfort letter. The response to the High Court A50 ruling ( though not in fairness the Supreme Court ruling ) is another example. #indyref2 will shaped by it as well as the Nats, who'll stop at nothing, will quickly learn the lessons and seek to build in the YES base. These are very dark days indeed.
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/03/how-to-build-an-autocracy/513872/#a-c1e8f10d-fa08-40b7-908e-9b4040187b030 -
Greetings from the world's most populous Muslim majority nation. Let me reassure you that there is nothing incompatible between Islam & democracy - there are more Muslims living in democracies in Indonesia and India than there are in all of the Middle East. Yes a lot of Muslim majority nations are seriously fecked up - and Muslim theocracies are as dreadful as any other theocracies, but lumping the religion along with Facist Islamists is not the way to a solution.nielh said:islamism is a profound threat to our western values that has to be tackled.
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@not_on_fire One of the Glories of PB are political obsessives who post relentlessly on a specialist internet forum everyday claiming to be rustic every persons.0
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The ones in the streets are not mainstream and when it comes to petitions they are not very real either.not_on_fire said:
Are those who live in urban areas not real people?felix said:Sounds to me like the outrage train has been somewhat derailed. Yet again the mainstream media get the mood of the real public completely wrong with their urban-centric and social media focus. These repeated failures to learn are becoming very tedious.
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@felix Responding to an opponent's concerns aboyt postfascism by labelling them mentally ill ? Thanks for acting a useful stereotype of what I was critiquing. Quite literally a useful idiot.0
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YellowSubmarine said:
@CarlotaVance I'm happy to embrace the Bush/Iraq comparisons. Almost every critique of the Iraq invasion was proved completely right. It was a multi Trillion Dollar Catastrophe and the polling moved heavily against it once the occupation got bogged down. Remember that Trump is at least a much a reaction against the GW Bush presidency as the Obama one.
So if today's polls have 49/36 in favour of him visiting " today they ring their bells, tomorrow they'll wrong their hands." I'm happy with those numbers on Day 12.
Problems with predictive text?YellowSubmarine said:@CarlotaVance I'm happy to embrace the Bush/Iraq comparisons. Almost every critique of the Iraq invasion was proved completely right. It was a multi Trillion Dollar Catastrophe and the polling moved heavily against it once the occupation got bogged down. Remember that Trump is at least a much a reaction against the GW Bush presidency as the Obama one.
So if today's polls have 49/36 in favour of him visiting " today they ring their bells, tomorrow they'll wrong their hands." I'm happy with those numbers on Day 12.0 -
I feel much less worried about the UK. That may be complacency, but I have a lot of confidence in MPs to defend democracy and respect the law.YellowSubmarine said:I'm late to the party on this sublime David Frum piece on Trumpian autocracy. Or what I'm calling postfascism. Doubtless it will have done the rounds here already but it's worth thinking this through for what it will look like in Britain. We've already seen this the secret Nissan Comfort letter. The response to the High Court A50 ruling ( though not in fairness the Supreme Court ruling ) is another example. #indyref2 will shaped by it as well as the Nats, who'll stop at nothing, will quickly learn the lessons and seek to build in the YES base. These are very dark days indeed.
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/03/how-to-build-an-autocracy/513872/#a-c1e8f10d-fa08-40b7-908e-9b4040187b03
I do think the US risks a significant erosion of democracy (I quite like postfacsicm btw).
I really hope it doesn't happen... But it will need republican politicians to stand up to Trump... And I see no evidence that they will do so whatever he does.0 -
I doubt Trump is much admired (I've no doubt those who pay attention loathe him, the vast majority who do not are indifferent) but the Office of the President of the USA is much admired - and getting him to visit a bit of a coup......Sean_F said:
I doubt if Trump is greatly admired in the UK. But, people find the criticisms of him to be over the top, and dislike his principal critics.felix said:Sounds to me like the outrage train has been somewhat derailed. Yet again the mainstream media get the mood of the real public completely wrong with their urban-centric and social media focus. These repeated failures to learn are becoming very tedious.
If Twitter, and some of the more excitable posters on here are to be believed, after Mrs May's disastrous visit to Trump we should see her approval ratings collapse....0 -
Lol - touchy because the polling trashes the liberal groupthink for the past week!YellowSubmarine said:@felix Responding to an opponent's concerns aboyt postfascism by labelling them mentally ill ? Thanks for acting a useful stereotype of what I was critiquing. Quite literally a useful idiot.
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I don't disagree but I didn't say Islam is a threat to western values (although that point is up for debate) its islamism which is qualitatively different.CarlottaVance said:
Greetings from the world's most populous Muslim majority nation. Let me reassure you that there is nothing incompatible between Islam & democracy - there are more Muslims living in democracies in Indonesia and India than there are in all of the Middle East. Yes a lot of Muslim majority nations are seriously fecked up - and Muslim theocracies are as dreadful as any other theocracies, but lumping the religion along with Facist Islamists is not the way to a solution.nielh said:islamism is a profound threat to our western values that has to be tackled.
All forms of religious fundamentalism (including christian fundamentalism) which aspire to political expression are a threat to western liberal democracy.
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The media are definitely waging their own war on Trump.
They're acting like the official opposition, making news rather than reporting it and agitating. There's no noticeable distinction between news and opinion. Fake news has occupied more cycles than legitimate news in just the last week.
The desire to believe anything negative or assign the worst possible interpretation of events isn't helping either . I can think of half a dozen examples off the top of my head where they've run around crying about some supposed eff up, then walked back on it several hours later - but in a little voice instead.
It's entertaining to watch the hysteria - but it's terrible for their reputation. Before Trump took office, their trust a lot/quite a bit ratings were c40% or less - I can't believe it's that much now.
Our own isn't any better, there's no attempt to even disguise what they think of Trump or those who voted him in. Quite extraordinary and unprofessional.0 -
I think that pudding is a little overegged.YellowSubmarine said:I'm late to the party on this sublime David Frum piece on Trumpian autocracy. Or what I'm calling postfascism. Doubtless it will have done the rounds here already but it's worth thinking this through for what it will look like in Britain. We've already seen this the secret Nissan Comfort letter. The response to the High Court A50 ruling ( though not in fairness the Supreme Court ruling ) is another example. #indyref2 will shaped by it as well as the Nats, who'll stop at nothing, will quickly learn the lessons and seek to build in the YES base. These are very dark days indeed.
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/03/how-to-build-an-autocracy/513872/#a-c1e8f10d-fa08-40b7-908e-9b4040187b03
On the High Court and Supreme Court rulings, it seems to me that the "in the British Constitution referendums are not binding" stuff was suitable for 1950, but not 2016. The British Constitution is a developing beast and history is that referenda *are* binding. #
As I see it the Judges had their heads in a bucket making whistling noises.
But I wouldn't worry about it wrt to Brexit because the whole legal thing was just displacement activity anyway from a practical point of view.
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Who'd have thunk it
A wise (ahem) man once said, "Britain and Twitter are not the same thing".0 -
Politicians will follow the public (or what they believe the public is thinking). GOP congressmen will stand up to Trump when - if - his approval ratings tank.rkrkrk said:
I feel much less worried about the UK. That may be complacency, but I have a lot of confidence in MPs to defend democracy and respect the law.YellowSubmarine said:I'm late to the party on this sublime David Frum piece on Trumpian autocracy. Or what I'm calling postfascism. Doubtless it will have done the rounds here already but it's worth thinking this through for what it will look like in Britain. We've already seen this the secret Nissan Comfort letter. The response to the High Court A50 ruling ( though not in fairness the Supreme Court ruling ) is another example. #indyref2 will shaped by it as well as the Nats, who'll stop at nothing, will quickly learn the lessons and seek to build in the YES base. These are very dark days indeed.
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/03/how-to-build-an-autocracy/513872/#a-c1e8f10d-fa08-40b7-908e-9b4040187b03
I do think the US risks a significant erosion of democracy (I quite like postfacsicm btw).
I really hope it doesn't happen... But it will need republican politicians to stand up to Trump... And I see no evidence that they will do so whatever he does.0 -
Steve Goddard
"Methinks thou dost protest too much"
- William Shakespeare https://t.co/U2RwFmvzOl
>
Dave Collum
Protest signs with a fill-in-the-blank section. We have become a little bit too whiny I would say... https://t.co/jeFmOxPE980 -
Oh dear, what? You mean the 1.7 million petitioners aren't representative?
Well, knock me down with a feather.0 -
It is a consequence of the constitutional fact - not yet fully recognised in constitutional theory - that the people, not parliament, are ultimately sovereign.YellowSubmarine said:Too early to tell. The Paris Agreement is the big one. If he pulls out of that then all bets are off. In any case it this stage the majority doesn't matter. It's about the shift from the left/right paradigm to the open /closed one. On a daily basis respectable British Conservatives turn into protectionist Trumpkin's. British Left liberals look anew at US conservatives defending the genius of the republic. It's how Trump fuels or doesn't this shift that's the primary concern.
Off topic another landmark day. " We're producing more history than we can consume " as Davis said. The Second Reading vote tonight to not only leave Europe but vote to do so overwhelmingly is epochal. Yes the parliamentary procedure will rumble on. Yes the Remain campaign will have at least another two years to run. However the House of Commons, the cockpit of the nation, will have spoken on the principle tonight. It's an historic Rubicon. The consequences of an overwhelmingly pro Remain body heavily voting for something it knows will be a disaster is another story for another day. However it's a profound constitutional inovation.0 -
Nailed on then.....
NICOLA Sturgeon will have “no choice” but to call a second independence referendum if the UK government rejects a bespoke Scottish deal on Europe, her Brexit minister has warned
http://www.heraldscotland.com/politics/15061056.Warning_that_Sturgeon_will_have__quot_no_choice_quot__but_to_call_Indyref2/#comments-anchor
Edit - mind you, this was fro the man that gave us that unqualified success called 'Scottish Education'......0 -
Finally catching up with this week's excellent women's all-in-wrestling podcast, and I dug up the stats from the "state of the sexes" survey by the Fawcett Society earlier this month - sample of approx 4k men, 4k women.
Feminism does indeed have an image problem.
"Q11. Which of the following statements best describes your view?"
Women:
I describe myself as a feminist: 9.2%
I believe in equality for women and men but I don’t describe myself as a feminist: 64.9%
I feel excluded by feminism: 2.0%
I think feminism is irrelevant: 6.6%
I am opposed to feminism: 3.2%
I don’t know what feminism stands for: 3.7%
None of the above: 10.3%
http://www.fawcettsociety.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Female-tables-1-36-39-cover.pdf
Men:
I describe myself as a feminist: 4.0 %
I believe in equality for women and men but I don’t describe myself as a feminist: 56.3%
I feel excluded by feminism: 4.2%
I think feminism is irrelevant: 11.0%
I am opposed to feminism: 5.3%
I don’t know what feminism stands for: 3.7%
None of the above: 15.3%
http://www.fawcettsociety.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Male-tables-1-36-39-cover.pdf
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Conflict News
German police raid 54 locations in major counter-terrorism op against alleged group of ISIS supporters - @BNONews
https://t.co/3c3G7W0kkK0 -
On topic, I've not seen the data from the survey so I don't know whether the question was asked but I wonder how many people are in my camp, that the offer was premature and shouldn't have been made (or not yet), but now that it has it should be honoured.0
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Surely it’s not as simple as disapprove=oppose. I think now the invitation has been issued, however foolish or craven that may have been, it would be even more dangerous to withdraw it. Trump doesn’t strike me as a man to forget insults ..... and it would be an insult ..... easily or generously.0
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Spoke to a Tory hating, SNP voter on the phone who agrees with Trump about keeping out Muslims.0
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Petitions are by definition unrepresentive. That's their explicit purpose.Casino_Royale said:Oh dear, what? You mean the 1.7 million petitioners aren't representative?
Well, knock me down with a feather.0 -
The Hannan article was excellent: measured, objective and fair.CarlottaVance said:
Yesterday I posted a link to an article by Dan Hannan outlining the ways to criticise Trump's immigration order - because it was a bad plan, poorly thought through which would have benefited from Congressional scrutiny - rather than simply saying 'Trump's a right wing nutter'.AlsoIndigo said:There is only so many times the same people can scream "its appalling" , "its a disgrace" never mind "he's a bigot" "he's a white supremacist" "he's worse than Hitler" before most of the public stops listening. Some of of these accusations may be true, but the Twitterati and their friends in the media have used this sort of terminology too readily and too frequently and the public is bored with it.
The response? 'Hannan's a right wing nutter' - truly some of these people are beyond help....
Most importantly: he was right.0 -
Shit day for Clegg and Hillary with Don's supreme court nomination and HoC setting Article 50 in train.
Oh Well!0 -
Not surprising. Once you start hating one group of people for their beliefs to the point where they're viewed as barely, if at all, human, it's much easier to hate others tor the same reason.old_labour said:Spoke to a Tory hating, SNP voter on the phone who agrees with Trump about keeping out Muslims.
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I have signed neither petition.Sean_F said:
I doubt if Trump is greatly admired in the UK. But, people find the criticisms of him to be over the top, and dislike his principal critics.felix said:Sounds to me like the outrage train has been somewhat derailed. Yet again the mainstream media get the mood of the real public completely wrong with their urban-centric and social media focus. These repeated failures to learn are becoming very tedious.
But, despite having no love for Trump, I was sorely tempted to sign the pro petition purely because I detest the sorts of people who were agitating against him.0 -
Watching the BBC and reading the Guardian you'd think that anyone who doesn't self-identify as a feminist is a bit of a bigot.MattW said:Finally catching up with this week's excellent women's all-in-wrestling podcast, and I dug up the stats from the "state of the sexes" survey by the Fawcett Society earlier this month - sample of approx 4k men, 4k women.
Feminism does indeed have an image problem.
"Q11. Which of the following statements best describes your view?"
Women:
I describe myself as a feminist: 9.2%
I believe in equality for women and men but I don’t describe myself as a feminist: 64.9%
I feel excluded by feminism: 2.0%
I think feminism is irrelevant: 6.6%
I am opposed to feminism: 3.2%
I don’t know what feminism stands for: 3.7%
None of the above: 10.3%
http://www.fawcettsociety.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Female-tables-1-36-39-cover.pdf
Men:
I describe myself as a feminist: 4.0 %
I believe in equality for women and men but I don’t describe myself as a feminist: 56.3%
I feel excluded by feminism: 4.2%
I think feminism is irrelevant: 11.0%
I am opposed to feminism: 5.3%
I don’t know what feminism stands for: 3.7%
None of the above: 15.3%
http://www.fawcettsociety.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Male-tables-1-36-39-cover.pdf0 -
@david_herdson I agree with that. I think the whole gaggle of ' I think this will be a disaster but I'm voting for it ' speeches in the Commons is an attempt to synthesise the old Parliamentary Soveriegnty with the new populist soveriegnty. It's an incremental, messy and chaotic thing but the extent that's the way all constitutional change in Britain it's fair enough.
How that pans out politically is a whole different discussion though. Voters won't blame themselves if/when it all goes horribly wrong.0 -
I think it shows that people's opinions are more complex than we imagine.david_herdson said:
Not surprising. Once you start hating one group of people for their beliefs to the point where they're viewed as barely, if at all, human, it's much easier to hate others tor the same reason.old_labour said:Spoke to a Tory hating, SNP voter on the phone who agrees with Trump about keeping out Muslims.
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I for one am sick of hearing the airwaves full of little else but Trump this or Trump that. The Media needs to get a life.0
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They are still banging the drum that the next Dr Who should be a woman.Casino_Royale said:
Watching the BBC and reading the Guardian you'd think that anyone who doesn't self-identify as a feminist is a bit of a bigot.MattW said:Finally catching up with this week's excellent women's all-in-wrestling podcast, and I dug up the stats from the "state of the sexes" survey by the Fawcett Society earlier this month - sample of approx 4k men, 4k women.
Feminism does indeed have an image problem.
"Q11. Which of the following statements best describes your view?"
Women:
I describe myself as a feminist: 9.2%
I believe in equality for women and men but I don’t describe myself as a feminist: 64.9%
I feel excluded by feminism: 2.0%
I think feminism is irrelevant: 6.6%
I am opposed to feminism: 3.2%
I don’t know what feminism stands for: 3.7%
None of the above: 10.3%
http://www.fawcettsociety.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Female-tables-1-36-39-cover.pdf
Men:
I describe myself as a feminist: 4.0 %
I believe in equality for women and men but I don’t describe myself as a feminist: 56.3%
I feel excluded by feminism: 4.2%
I think feminism is irrelevant: 11.0%
I am opposed to feminism: 5.3%
I don’t know what feminism stands for: 3.7%
None of the above: 15.3%
http://www.fawcettsociety.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Male-tables-1-36-39-cover.pdf0 -
@Felix Wrong again. I'm not remotely surprised at the pollng on either Trump's #muslimban or Trumos State visit. Nor have I predicted the polling would be otherwise. Nor is the polling as it is relavent to the point I was actually making.0
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Trump Visit - Remainia vs Leavistan:
Net go ahead:
OA: +13
Leave: +46
Remain: -19
VI
Con: +61
Lab: -36
LibD: -27
UKIP: +67
All regions (including London) were net positive, except for Scotland, marginally negative (-2)
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/orzji7t2u3/TimesResults_170131_Trump_2_W.pdf0 -
It's the same as having an actress play James Bond. I just don't get it. The characters are male!old_labour said:0 -
I can see a petition coming on....old_labour said:0 -
The usual suspectsCarlottaVance said:Trump Visit - Remainia vs Leavistan:
Net go ahead:
OA: +13
Leave: +46
Remain: -19
VI
Con: +61
Lab: -36
LibD: -27
UKIP: +67
All regions (including London) were net positive, except for Scotland, marginally negative (-2)
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/orzji7t2u3/TimesResults_170131_Trump_2_W.pdf
Net go ahead:
Leave: +46
Remain: -190 -
A "twitter storm" if they don't watch out.MarqueeMark said:
I can see a petition coming on....old_labour said:0 -
As ever, you confuse the reporting of uncomfortable truths with biasPlatoSaid said:The media are definitely waging their own war on Trump.
They're acting like the official opposition, making news rather than reporting it and agitating. There's no noticeable distinction between news and opinion. Fake news has occupied more cycles than legitimate news in just the last week.
The desire to believe anything negative or assign the worst possible interpretation of events isn't helping either . I can think of half a dozen examples off the top of my head where they've run around crying about some supposed eff up, then walked back on it several hours later - but in a little voice instead.
It's entertaining to watch the hysteria - but it's terrible for their reputation. Before Trump took office, their trust a lot/quite a bit ratings were c40% or less - I can't believe it's that much now.
Our own isn't any better, there's no attempt to even disguise what they think of Trump or those who voted him in. Quite extraordinary and unprofessional.0 -
@old_labour Discussing the fact the next Doctor Who should be a woman before then inevitably appointing another man is the ultimate British Tradition**. It's not radical. I confidently expect to see a female Archbishop of Canterbury* in my lifetime but not a female Doctor.
*It amuses me the the only part of the UK legislature to have no only gender balance rules but positive discrimination until we get there are the 26 Anglican Bishops in the Lord's.
** It also amuses me that the conservatism of Dr Who is rooted in the enormously sucessful Thatcher commercalisation reforms. It's the fact it's such a money spinning global hit that they daren't tamper with the formula.0 -
I think it shows that they're more simple (unless one has a particularly one-dimensional view). The only question in this case was whether the voter hated Trump or muslims more. But the more extreme nationalists must by the nature of their nationalism hate those who they perceive as undermining national identity more than their opposite numbers overseas.old_labour said:
I think it shows that people's opinions are more complex than we imagine.david_herdson said:
Not surprising. Once you start hating one group of people for their beliefs to the point where they're viewed as barely, if at all, human, it's much easier to hate others tor the same reason.old_labour said:Spoke to a Tory hating, SNP voter on the phone who agrees with Trump about keeping out Muslims.
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"Whatever the gloss from what at first appeared like triumphal visit to Washington last week by the PM has fallen away following the executive orders from the White House on refugees, Muslims, and immigration."
Citation needed. Otherwise, another "I suspect" is required.
From the tone of the thread, I suspect OGH is slightly narked at the national mood....0 -
No, and to an extent they shouldn't: the details are for the government to work out and for parliament to scrutinise.YellowSubmarine said:@david_herdson I agree with that. I think the whole gaggle of ' I think this will be a disaster but I'm voting for it ' speeches in the Commons is an attempt to synthesise the old Parliamentary Soveriegnty with the new populist soveriegnty. It's an incremental, messy and chaotic thing but the extent that's the way all constitutional change in Britain it's fair enough.
How that pans out politically is a whole different discussion though. Voters won't blame themselves if/when it all goes horribly wrong.0 -
I thought one of the great things about the Tennant/Tate pairing (which I thought would be a disaster) was how often Tate acted as a 'conscience' to the Doctor and frequently 'told him what to do'old_labour said:0 -
The wariness of Muslims was due to fears of being raped plus the attitude of many of that religion's adherents to women in general.david_herdson said:
I think it shows that they're more simple (unless one has a particularly one-dimensional view). The only question in this case was whether the voter hated Trump or muslims more. But the more extreme nationalists must by the nature of their nationalism hate those who they perceive as undermining national identity more than their opposite numbers overseas.old_labour said:
I think it shows that people's opinions are more complex than we imagine.david_herdson said:
Not surprising. Once you start hating one group of people for their beliefs to the point where they're viewed as barely, if at all, human, it's much easier to hate others tor the same reason.old_labour said:Spoke to a Tory hating, SNP voter on the phone who agrees with Trump about keeping out Muslims.
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What Labour stands for in 2017:
1. A female Dr. Who
2. Er.....
3. Remain?
4. No, I meant, honour the Brexit vote
5. (No, secretly we mean remain!)
6. Er...
7. That's it.
If ever anything needed to regenerate, it ain't Dr. Who!
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The character is a time lord, and they can regenerate as either sex.RobD said:
It's the same as having an actress play James Bond. I just don't get it. The characters are male!old_labour said:
Anyway, having seen Glenda Jackson's superb King Lear last year I think the most important point is this: whoever gets the role they will be acting.0 -
I do not believe politicians should be interfering with the casting of what is a family/children's show. Has Hattie nothing better to do other than flogging her book?CarlottaVance said:
I thought one of the great things about the Tennant/Tate pairing (which I thought would be a disaster) was how often Tate acted as a 'conscience' to the Doctor and frequently 'told him what to do'old_labour said:0 -
GOP congressmen are accountable to gerrymandered districts, with (I suspect) some new, draconian voter suppression tactics on the way... For many their risk is Fox news going after them and aprimary challenge... I don't feel optimistic about this.david_herdson said:
Politicians will follow the public (or what they believe the public is thinking). GOP congressmen will stand up to Trump when - if - his approval ratings tank.rkrkrk said:
I feel much less worried about the UK. That may be complacency, but I have a lot of confidence in MPs to defend democracy and respect the law.YellowSubmarine said:I'm late to the party on this sublime David Frum piece on Trumpian autocracy. Or what I'm calling postfascism. Doubtless it will have done the rounds here already but it's worth thinking this through for what it will look like in Britain. We've already seen this the secret Nissan Comfort letter. The response to the High Court A50 ruling ( though not in fairness the Supreme Court ruling ) is another example. #indyref2 will shaped by it as well as the Nats, who'll stop at nothing, will quickly learn the lessons and seek to build in the YES base. These are very dark days indeed.
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/03/how-to-build-an-autocracy/513872/#a-c1e8f10d-fa08-40b7-908e-9b4040187b03
I do think the US risks a significant erosion of democracy (I quite like postfacsicm btw).
I really hope it doesn't happen... But it will need republican politicians to stand up to Trump... And I see no evidence that they will do so whatever he does.0 -
I honestly have no idea what you're on about. Their opinion is just as valid as non urban voters whether or not they are "mainstream"felix said:
The ones in the streets are not mainstream and when it comes to petitions they are not very real either.not_on_fire said:
Are those who live in urban areas not real people?felix said:Sounds to me like the outrage train has been somewhat derailed. Yet again the mainstream media get the mood of the real public completely wrong with their urban-centric and social media focus. These repeated failures to learn are becoming very tedious.
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Yes. Although the convention of popular sovereignty seems to be accepted by politicians and public alike, it's one that has surprisingly few open advocates. MPs remain wedded to the notion of parliamentary sovereignty even while referring the biggest decisions to the electorate and implementing those decisions against their judgement.YellowSubmarine said:@david_herdson I agree with that. I think the whole gaggle of ' I think this will be a disaster but I'm voting for it ' speeches in the Commons is an attempt to synthesise the old Parliamentary Soveriegnty with the new populist soveriegnty. It's an incremental, messy and chaotic thing but the extent that's the way all constitutional change in Britain it's fair enough.
Perhaps we should view parliament's ability to override the public's expressed opinion in referendums as a kind of equivalent to the Royal reserve powers: there in legal force and usable in exceptional circumstances but otherwise something of a fiction.
Other than referendums, obviously parliament has the constitutional right to enact laws as it sees fit but that's still just a temporary devolvement of sovereignty given every five years or so by the people.0 -
OK, but last time I checked James Bond wasn't a Lord, temporal or otherwiseFysics_Teacher said:
The character is a time lord, and they can regenerate as either sex.RobD said:
It's the same as having an actress play James Bond. I just don't get it. The characters are male!old_labour said:
Anyway, having seen Glenda Jackson's superb King Lear last year I think the most important point is this: whoever gets the role they will be acting.
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@David_Herdson Again I agree David. But this is the constitutional problem with a soft to popular soveriegnty. The electorate can't vote themselves out of office if they get things wrong. Which leave MP's in a position of responsibility without power. They are obliged to vote for A50 despite a majority knowing what's about to happen. But they still have to take the blame if/when it goes wrong.
I expect the new circle will be squared by us not having another national referendum for decades. The people can be Soveriegn but Parliament won't ask them to decide anything involving sharp cutlery.0 -
I still don't understand how voter ID can be classified as draconian voter suppression, especially when you can apply for free ID.rkrkrk said:
GOP congressmen are accountable to gerrymandered districts, with (I suspect) some new, draconian voter suppression tactics on the way... For many their risk is Fox news going after them and aprimary challenge... I don't feel optimistic about this.david_herdson said:
Politicians will follow the public (or what they believe the public is thinking). GOP congressmen will stand up to Trump when - if - his approval ratings tank.rkrkrk said:
I feel much less worried about the UK. That may be complacency, but I have a lot of confidence in MPs to defend democracy and respect the law.YellowSubmarine said:I'm late to the party on this sublime David Frum piece on Trumpian autocracy. Or what I'm calling postfascism. Doubtless it will have done the rounds here already but it's worth thinking this through for what it will look like in Britain. We've already seen this the secret Nissan Comfort letter. The response to the High Court A50 ruling ( though not in fairness the Supreme Court ruling ) is another example. #indyref2 will shaped by it as well as the Nats, who'll stop at nothing, will quickly learn the lessons and seek to build in the YES base. These are very dark days indeed.
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2017/03/how-to-build-an-autocracy/513872/#a-c1e8f10d-fa08-40b7-908e-9b4040187b03
I do think the US risks a significant erosion of democracy (I quite like postfacsicm btw).
I really hope it doesn't happen... But it will need republican politicians to stand up to Trump... And I see no evidence that they will do so whatever he does.0 -
Zerohedge, quoting Eurointelligence, a pro € pro EU group:
It took Donald Trump less than a week to drive a wedge between the constitutionally weak Europeans. His travel ban applies to people with dual passports – except to those with dual British citizenship. It was a concession Britain’s foreign secretary, Boris Johnson, managed to negotiate directly with the White House.
Angela Merkel assures Germans with dual citizens her full support, and promised to co-ordinate the position with other European member states. She said yesterday that Trump’s policy did not reflect her idea of the international co-operation and how to deal with refugees, but there was not even a hint of any action, or counter-action. We noted a comment by Italy’s new foreign minister, Angelino Alfano, that we should stop hyperventilating about Trump. What else can the EU do, having made itself totally dependent on the US for its defence?
The Conservative Party yesterday strongly rallied behind Theresa May and her pro-US position. It is becoming very clear that the combination of Brexit and the election of Donald Trump will simultaneously reposition the UK geo-strategically and economically, and weaken the EU. This is why we think the EU would be best served by agreeing a friendly Brexit as quickly as possible.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2017-02-01/trump-drives-wedge-eu0 -
I think Harman has her own personal issues with feminism.old_labour said:0 -
Very interesting polling. IMO might be easier to just come up with a new word...MattW said:Finally catching up with this week's excellent women's all-in-wrestling podcast, and I dug up the stats from the "state of the sexes" survey by the Fawcett Society earlier this month - sample of approx 4k men, 4k women.
Feminism does indeed have an image problem.
"Q11. Which of the following statements best describes your view?"
Women:
I describe myself as a feminist: 9.2%
I believe in equality for women and men but I don’t describe myself as a feminist: 64.9%
I feel excluded by feminism: 2.0%
I think feminism is irrelevant: 6.6%
I am opposed to feminism: 3.2%
I don’t know what feminism stands for: 3.7%
None of the above: 10.3%
http://www.fawcettsociety.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Female-tables-1-36-39-cover.pdf
Men:
I describe myself as a feminist: 4.0 %
I believe in equality for women and men but I don’t describe myself as a feminist: 56.3%
I feel excluded by feminism: 4.2%
I think feminism is irrelevant: 11.0%
I am opposed to feminism: 5.3%
I don’t know what feminism stands for: 3.7%
None of the above: 15.3%
http://www.fawcettsociety.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/01/Male-tables-1-36-39-cover.pdf
Is there a parallel though with gay rights... Who IIRC decided (and I think were successful) in reclaiming the word gay?0 -
Another indication that Harman is actually a political feminist. She wants vengeance, not equality.old_labour said:0 -
I'm not sure. He has certainly gone through several regenerations...RobD said:
OK, but last time I checked James Bond wasn't a Lord, temporal or otherwiseFysics_Teacher said:
The character is a time lord, and they can regenerate as either sex.RobD said:
It's the same as having an actress play James Bond. I just don't get it. The characters are male!old_labour said:
Anyway, having seen Glenda Jackson's superb King Lear last year I think the most important point is this: whoever gets the role they will be acting.0 -
@RobD Isn't that just another version of Roger Moore's argument that a black actor can't play James Bond as the character in the books is " English English " ? Where do we draw the line ?0
-
Guido reporting CCHQ candidate selection starting in earnest.
https://order-order.com/2017/02/01/tories-start-candidate-selection-process-early/
I think we remember the numerous comments prior to 2015 saying how slow the Tories were at selecting candidates 0 -
Agreed: I don't expect to see another national referendum in my lifetime.YellowSubmarine said:@David_Herdson Again I agree David. But this is the constitutional problem with a soft to popular soveriegnty. The electorate can't vote themselves out of office if they get things wrong. Which leave MP's in a position of responsibility without power. They are obliged to vote for A50 despite a majority knowing what's about to happen. But they still have to take the blame if/when it goes wrong.
I expect the new circle will be squared by us not having another national referendum for decades. The people can be Soveriegn but Parliament won't ask them to decide anything involving sharp cutlery.
0 -
Ed Miliband wanted the next James Bond to be a woman.MarqueeMark said:What Labour stands for in 2017:
1. A female Dr. Who
2. Er.....
3. Remain?
4. No, I meant, honour the Brexit vote
5. (No, secretly we mean remain!)
6. Er...
7. That's it.
If ever anything needed to regenerate, it ain't Dr. Who!
And that was when he was leader of the Labour Party, a candidate for Prime Minister and seemingly at serious risk of becoming so.0 -
Don't be daft, a majority don't 'know what's going to happen'. No-one does. We do know about the success of Remain's short-term predictions though.YellowSubmarine said:@David_Herdson Again I agree David. But this is the constitutional problem with a soft to popular soveriegnty. The electorate can't vote themselves out of office if they get things wrong. Which leave MP's in a position of responsibility without power. They are obliged to vote for A50 despite a majority knowing what's about to happen. But they still have to take the blame if/when it goes wrong.
I expect the new circle will be squared by us not having another national referendum for decades. The people can be Soveriegn but Parliament won't ask them to decide anything involving sharp cutlery.0 -
He's still in campaigning mode
https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-02-01/trump-raised-record-6-5-million-in-weeks-after-winning-election0 -
If true, that's an interesting indicator.RobD said:Guido reporting CCHQ candidate selection starting in earnest.
https://order-order.com/2017/02/01/tories-start-candidate-selection-process-early/
I think we remember the numerous comments prior to 2015 saying how slow the Tories were at selecting candidates0 -
Did he not watch any of the previous films then before he or the gig?YellowSubmarine said:@RobD Isn't that just another version of Roger Moore's argument that a black actor can't play James Bond as the character in the books is " English English " ? Where do we draw the line ?
0 -
I think being man with many flaws is a key aspect of his persona. The color of his skin less so!YellowSubmarine said:@RobD Isn't that just another version of Roger Moore's argument that a black actor can't play James Bond as the character in the books is " English English " ? Where do we draw the line ?
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That tie is so exceptionally bluePlatoSaid said:He's still in campaigning mode
https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-02-01/trump-raised-record-6-5-million-in-weeks-after-winning-election0 -
Guido
CCHQ Accelerating Candidate Selection Process - In Labour Held Seats... #SaveJez https://t.co/3ZuUg5qgcn0 -
I'm not sure whether that's possible. The genie is out of the bottle (not least because it forced itself out) and there's an established precedent that major issues of national or constitutional importance are put to the people - and I doubt that parliament has the confidence to put the alternative case, though as you say there is the possibility that that might change in the light of experience. Even so, the Scottish Question is the next likely flashpoint and it's inconceivable that it won't be again settled by referendum: neither side will accept the legitimacy of either Westminster or Holyrood to make a final decision.YellowSubmarine said:@David_Herdson Again I agree David. But this is the constitutional problem with a soft to popular soveriegnty. The electorate can't vote themselves out of office if they get things wrong. Which leave MP's in a position of responsibility without power. They are obliged to vote for A50 despite a majority knowing what's about to happen. But they still have to take the blame if/when it goes wrong.
I expect the new circle will be squared by us not having another national referendum for decades. The people can be Soveriegn but Parliament won't ask them to decide anything involving sharp cutlery.0 -
Parliamentary sovereignty works so long as the views of parliamentarians are broadly in step with the people they represent, or they are able to sell their 'better informed' views to them.david_herdson said:
Yes. Although the convention of popular sovereignty seems to be accepted by politicians and public alike, it's one that has surprisingly few open advocates. MPs remain wedded to the notion of parliamentary sovereignty even while referring the biggest decisions to the electorate and implementing those decisions against their judgement.YellowSubmarine said:@david_herdson I agree with that. I think the whole gaggle of ' I think this will be a disaster but I'm voting for it ' speeches in the Commons is an attempt to synthesise the old Parliamentary Soveriegnty with the new populist soveriegnty. It's an incremental, messy and chaotic thing but the extent that's the way all constitutional change in Britain it's fair enough.
Perhaps we should view parliament's ability to override the public's expressed opinion in referendums as a kind of equivalent to the Royal reserve powers: there in legal force and usable in exceptional circumstances but otherwise something of a fiction.
Other than referendums, obviously parliament has the constitutional right to enact laws as it sees fit but that's still just a temporary devolvement of sovereignty given every five years or so by the people.
Both largely hinge on mutual respect.0 -
Or read the Books? Bond is Scottish and Swiss parentage. Bloody immigrants coming over here licensrd to kill...Fysics_Teacher said:
Did he not watch any of the previous films then before he or the gig?YellowSubmarine said:@RobD Isn't that just another version of Roger Moore's argument that a black actor can't play James Bond as the character in the books is " English English " ? Where do we draw the line ?
0 -
On the subject of female and male roles: bbc.co.uk/news/uk-387550320
-
owes it to putin (eye winky emoticon thing)PlatoSaid said:He's still in campaigning mode
https://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-02-01/trump-raised-record-6-5-million-in-weeks-after-winning-election0 -
I'm still laughing at a snowflake response about something I didn't say using the term 'idiot' with all of its connotations. ah me.YellowSubmarine said:@Felix Wrong again. I'm not remotely surprised at the pollng on either Trump's #muslimban or Trumos State visit. Nor have I predicted the polling would be otherwise. Nor is the polling as it is relavent to the point I was actually making.
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vengeance is a dish best served via childrens television, as they sayJosiasJessop said:
Another indication that Harman is actually a political feminist. She wants vengeance, not equality.old_labour said:0 -
(time to get rid and write something new. Dr who was good with tom baker in, and not sincedugarbandier said:
vengeance is a dish best served via childrens television, as they sayJosiasJessop said:
Another indication that Harman is actually a political feminist. She wants vengeance, not equality.old_labour said:
) 0 -
There will be - there's no doubt in my mind that Dr Who is trans-gender!old_labour said:
A "twitter storm" if they don't watch out.MarqueeMark said:
I can see a petition coming on....old_labour said:0 -
My favourite political intervention in a popular seies was when Neil Kinnock proposed renaming "The Archers" as "The Grundys and Their Oppresors".Casino_Royale said:
Ed Miliband wanted the next James Bond to be a woman.MarqueeMark said:What Labour stands for in 2017:
1. A female Dr. Who
2. Er.....
3. Remain?
4. No, I meant, honour the Brexit vote
5. (No, secretly we mean remain!)
6. Er...
7. That's it.
If ever anything needed to regenerate, it ain't Dr. Who!
And that was when he was leader of the Labour Party, a candidate for Prime Minister and seemingly at serious risk of becoming so.0
